Feasibility Study Report On Gura SHP

SMALL HYDRO FOR GREENING
THE TEA INDUSTRY IN EASTERN

AND SOUTHERN AFRICA
FEASIBILITY STUDY ON
GURA SMALL HYDROPOWER

PROJECT IN KENYA
Feasibility Study Report
Final – March 2008

EATTA - Feasibility Study on Gura SHP (Kenya) - Finalt Report
IED reference: 2007/022/EATTA
IED
Innovation Energie Développement
2 chemin de la Chauderaie
Francheville 69340, France
Tel. +33 (0)4 72 59 13 20
Fax. +33 (0)4 72 59 13 39
E-mail: ied@ied-sa.fr
Version 1 Version 2
Date 7 March 2008 28 March 2008
Written by TDV / PSAV/ GDC TDV / PSAV/ GDC
Reviewed by DRM DRM
Approved by DRM DRM
Distribution level EATTA EATTA
IED – Innovation Energie Développement 2

EATTA - Feasibility Study on Gura SHP (Kenya) - Final Report
TABLE OF CONTENT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY __________________________________ 14

1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION ____________________________ 19
1.1 Background & Objectives ______________________________________ 19
1.2 Work Activities _______________________________________________ 19
1.3 Project Background ___________________________________________ 20
1.3.1 Introduction to project area __________________________________ 20
1.3.2 Presentation of tea sector ____________________________________ 21
1.3.3 Power supply and Rural Electrification plan _____________________ 23
2 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK & CONNECTION SCHEMES26
2.1 Legal and Regulatory Framework _______________________________ 26
2.1.1 Objectives and Methodology _________________________________ 26
2.1.2 Gura SHP Connection scheme ________________________________ 26
2.1.3 Legal and regulatory context _________________________________ 26
2.1.4 KPLC point of view ________________________________________ 27
2.1.5 Investors and operators _____________________________________ 27
2.2 Grid Connection Scheme Development ___________________________ 28
2.2.1 Quality issue _____________________________________________ 28
2.2.2 Existing power supply ______________________________________ 29
2.2.3 Connection scenarios _______________________________________ 31
2.2.4 Conclusion on grid connection _______________________________ 37
3 DEMAND ASSESSMENT AND LOAD FORECAST _________ 40
3.1 Objectives ____________________________________________________ 40
3.2 Methodology _________________________________________________ 40
3.3 Local interests in SHP and RE development _______________________ 41
3.4 Power demand from tea factory _________________________________ 42
3.4.1 Thermal power requirements _________________________________ 42
3.4.2 Electrical power requirements ________________________________ 44
3.5 Rural Electrification Power demand ______________________________ 47
3.5.1 Existing grid ______________________________________________ 47
3.5.2 Power demand from leaf collection centres ______________________ 48
3.6 Global power demand (Year 1) __________________________________ 49
3.6.1 Total Power Demand _______________________________________ 49
3.6.2 Load Curves ______________________________________________ 49
3.6.3 Load Duration Curves ______________________________________ 50
3.7 Load forecast _________________________________________________ 52
3.8 Prospects for Energy Savings ____________________________________ 54
4 SHP TECHNICAL DESIGN ______________________________ 55
4.1 General description of the site and location ________________________ 55
4.2 Gura SHP: Geology, Hydrology and Topography ___________________ 56

4.2.1 Geology _________________________________________________ 56

4.2.2 Hydrology _______________________________________________ 58
4.2.3 Topography ______________________________________________ 70
4.3 Power scheme of development ___________________________________ 70
4.4 Optimization designed plant capacity / Unit arrangement ____________ 74
4.4.1 SHP sizing optimisation_____________________________________ 74
4.4.2 Unit arrangement __________________________________________ 83
4.5 Energy generation _____________________________________________ 83
4.5.1 Main characteristics of the Pelton turbine _______________________ 83
4.5.2 Energy produced in average year______________________________ 84
4.5.3 Energy produced in dry years ________________________________ 84
4.5.4 Energy produced in rainy years _______________________________ 85
4.6 Plan of development ___________________________________________ 85
4.6.1 Hydraulic calculation and results ______________________________ 86
4.6.2 The weir and the intake structure ______________________________ 86
4.6.3 The settling basin __________________________________________ 88
4.6.4 The waterway _____________________________________________ 92
4.6.5 The forebay ______________________________________________ 95
4.6.6 The penstock line __________________________________________ 97
4.6.7 The powerhouse and the tailrace channel _______________________ 99
4.6.8 The access road works _____________________________________ 104
4.6.9 Operator’s house _________________________________________ 104
4.7 Work schedule _______________________________________________ 104
4.8 Staffing and training requirements for plant operation and management107
4.8.1 Tentative list of staff required _______________________________ 107
4.8.2 Hydroelectricity capacity building____________________________ 107
4.9 Cost estimate ________________________________________________ 108
4.9.1 General approach, construction works by contracts and cost summary 108
4.9.2 Detailed basis of cost estimates ______________________________ 109
5 RURAL ELECTRIFICATION PLAN _____________________ 115
5.1 Rural power demand _________________________________________ 115
5.2 Spatial layout ________________________________________________ 115
5.3 Preliminary network design ____________________________________ 116
5.3.1 Main MV line____________________________________________ 116
5.4 Electrical configuration _______________________________________ 116
5.5 Preliminary Costing __________________________________________ 116
6 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT 119
6.1 Detailed Study Report_________________________________________ 119
6.2 Preliminary Conclusions ______________________________________ 119
6.3 CO2 Impact _________________________________________________ 120
6.3.1 Emission reduction for Igara tea factory _______________________ 120
6.3.2 Overview of the carbon market ______________________________ 120
6.3.3 CERs Valorisation of the EATTA projects _____________________ 121
6.3.4 VER market _____________________________________________ 121
6.3.5 Recommendations on next steps _____________________________ 122

7 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ________________________________ 123

7.1 Decision Criteria _____________________________________________ 123
7.2 Presentation of the financial model ______________________________ 124
7.3 Results of the financial analysis _________________________________ 128
7.3.1 Baseline scenario _________________________________________ 128
7.3.2 Pessimistic cases _________________________________________ 129
7.3.3 Optimistic cases __________________________________________ 130
7.3.4 Sensitivity study on the PPA tariff with KPLC __________________ 131
7.3.5 Other benefits from the project ______________________________ 132
7.4 Conclusions _________________________________________________ 133
8 ANNEXES ____________________________________________ 134

ACRONYMS
EATTA East African Tea Trade Association

IPP Independent Power Producers
PPA power purchase agreement
PWA power wheeling agreement
WB/IDA World Bank / International Development Association
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme
GEF Global Energy Fund
SHP – SHPP Small Hydro Power Plants
ABC Aerial Bundled Conductor (MV)
PHYSICAL UNITS
LV – MV – HV low – medium – high voltage

kV kilo Volts
kW – MW – GW electrical power in kilo – mega – giga Watt
kWh – MWh – GWh electrical energy in kilo – mega – giga Watt hour
kVA – MVA active power in Volt Ampere
kVAR reactive power in Volt Ampere Reactive
t – Mt – Gt ton – mega ton – giga ton
Exchange rate in 15 February 2008: In Kenya: 1 USD = 70 KES

LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS
1. General Introduction
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF MAPS
Map 1.1: Tea Growing Districts of Kenya and project zone

2. Institutional Framework & Connection Schemes

LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.1: Pros and Cons of grid connection scenarios
Table 2.2: Criteria of evaluation
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1: Voltage drop profile and power transit in Othaya feeder
Figure 2.2: Electrical diagram of grid connection (A1)
Figure 2.3: Voltage drop profile and power transit in 11kV Othaya feeder
LIST OF MAPS
Map 2.1: GURA area, Tea Factories and existing MV system
Map 2.2: Gura SHP grid connection scenarios
Map 2.3: Dedicated 11 kV connection

3. Demand Assessment and Load Forecast

LIST OF TABLES
Table 3.1: Specific energy costs per source
Table 3.2: Capacity of thermal equipments
Table 3.3: Installed capacities and energy consumption per source
Table 3.4: Energy consumption per source
Table 3.5: Annual electricity consumption from the 4 tea factories (2007)
Table 3.6: Maximum peak electricity demand from the 4 tea factories (2007)
Table 3.7: Inventory of Tea Buying Centres around tea factories
Table 3.8: Total energy demand and peak load for Gura SHP project
Table 3.9: Load Forecast for Tea Factories
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 3.1: Energy cost and energy content in one ton of made tea
Figure 3.2: Annual thermal fuel consumption vs. made tea production
Figure 3.3: Annual electricity consumption from the 4 tea factories
Figure 3.4: Annual peak load curve (kW) for the 4 tea factories
Figure 3.5: Daily load curve for the 4 tea factories
Figure 3.6: Expected daily load curves for the 4 Tea Factories
Figure 3.7: Load Duration Curve models (%)
Figure 3.8: Actual Load Duration Curve (kW) for each tea factory
Figure 3.10: Load forecast indicators
LIST OF MAPS

4. SHP Technical Design

LIST OF TABLES
Table 4.1: Physical characteristics of the catchment area
Table 4.2: Annual rainfall (1999-2006)
Table 4.3: Total monthly & annual rainfall (Gathuthi & Gitugi 1999-2007)
Table 4.4: Total monthly & annual rainfall (Kiandongoro 1999-2007)
Table 4.5: Total monthly & annual rainfall (Gathuthi 1993-2007)
Table 4.6: Monthly & annual mean flows (Gura 1978-2007)
Table 4.7: Monthly & annual mean runoffs (Gura)
Table 4.9: Monthly & annual mean runoffs (Gura 2003-2005)
Table 4.10: Daily maximum rainfall (Kiandongoro 1999-2006)
Table 4.11: Monthly and annual maximum daily flows (Gura)
Table 4.12: Precipitations and Runoffs on Gura bassin
Table 4.13: Location of the main works (Gura)
Table 4.14: Estimated yearly output vs. discharge (Gura)
Table 4.15: Preliminary Gura SHP sizing vs. design discharge
Table 4.16: Preliminary costing for various SHP sizing
Table 4.17: Estimated IRR vs. discharge (Gura)
Table 4.18: Hydraulic feature (Gura)
Table 4.19: Weir geometrical characteristics
Table 4.20: Weir gates characteristics
Table 4.21: Settling Basin geometrical characteristics
Table 4.22: Settling basin gates characteristics
Table 4.23: Lined trapezoidal channel characteristics
Table 4.24: Lined rectangular channel characteristics
Table 4.25: Water reserve by deepening
Table 4.26: Forebay geometrical characteristics
Table 4.27: Forebay gates characteristics
Table 4.28: Penstock geometrical characteristics
Table 4.29: Penstock mechanical characteristics
Table 4.30: Powerhouse & Tailrace geometrical characteristics
Table 4.31: Powerhouse equipment characteristics
Table 4.32: General Summary of Project Costs

Table 4.33: Breakdown of Project Costs
Table 4.34: Detailed Costing for Civil Works (CW)
Table 4.35: Detailed Costing for Main Electro-Mechanical Works (MEMW)
Table 4.36: Detailed Costing for Electrical Network (EN)
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 4.1: Monthly rainfall and runoffs (Gura)
Figure 4.2: Empirical Frequency Curve (EFC) for Gura – Median year
Figure 4.3: Empirical Frequency Curve (EFC) for Gura – Dry year
Figure 4.4: Empirical Frequency Curve (EFC) for Gura – Rainy year
Figure 4.5: Demand and Load Duration Curve
Figure 4.6: Simulation of the placement of energy – SHP supply to 4 tea factories
Figure 4.7: Main characteristics of the Pelton turbine
Figure 4.8: Power & Flow Duration Curves – Median year
Figure 4.9: Power & Flow Duration Curves – Dry year T10
Figure 4.10: Power & Flow Duration Curves – Rainy year T10
Figure 4.11: Single-line electrical diagram of the SHP powerhouse
Figure 4.12: Suggested detailed work programme
LIST OF MAPS
Map 4.1: Location of Gura SHP site (GUR-N°1)
Map 4.2: General development plan (GUR-N°2)

5. Rural Electrification Plan

LIST OF TABLES
Table 5.1: Key data on power demand
Table 5.2: Preliminary costing for MV network
Table 5.3: Detailed costing for 11kV lines (USD)
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 5.1: One-line electrical diagram for Gura SHP project
LIST OF MAPS

6. Environmental and social impact assessment

LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF MAPS
7. Financial analysis
LIST OF TABLES
Table 7.1: Synthetic investment costs for Gura
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 7.1: Structure of Financial Model
Figure 7.2: Cash Flow over 14 years
Figure 7.3: Sensitivity curve
LIST OF MAPS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The project “Greening the Tea Industry in East Africa” is co-implemented by UNEP &
the African Development Bank (AfDB) and executed by the East African Tea Trade
Association (EATTA).
The objective of the initiative is to encourage the tea sector in East African region to
develop Small Hydropower Projects (SHP) with the aim of reducing operating costs,
increasing power supply reliability and reducing greenhouse gas emissions during tea
processing.
The present feasibility study has been prepared based on field survey conducted on
Gura river in Kenya between mid October and mid of December 2007 with 4 surveyor
teams: hydrological team, topographical team, rural electrification expert and
institutional expert. The study is part of a 4 year initiative endorsed by 8 EATTA
member countries in the region.
Four nearby tea factories (Gathuthi, Gitugi, Iria Ini, Chinga) belonging to KTDA have
strongly expressed their interest to be supplied by an independent hydropower source.
Each one is actually supplied by the national grid through 11kV from Othaya substation
operated by KPLC. However the frequent power outages, voltage drops and load
shedding significantly affect the tea production quality and costs. The SHP project is
most welcome to end with the reliance on backup diesel.
The Gura Small Hydro Power site is located along Gura River in the Aberdare
mountains and situated at 6 km from the closest tea factory (Gathuthi) and 24 km from
the furthest one (Chinga) in Nyeri District.
Given the favourable and well-established legal and regulatory framework for IPP
(Independent Power Producers) in Kenya, it has been proposed to interconnect the Gura
SHP scheme with a dedicated 11kV line with the 4 tea factories. An injection point to
the near MV grid will allow the sales of power to the KPLC Utility through a Power
Purchase Agreement (PPA).
Thanks to strong government support, the power distribution network has been
intensively extended during the last 2 years, in particular in the project area where all
villages, trading centres and tea buying centres are now electrified or at less than 3km
from the grid. Therefore no external power demand is considered in the study and the
total requirement (based on grid + genset consumption) for the 4 factories is about 8.6
GWh in year 1 and an expected peak load of 2.2 MW in December-January (peak
season). The annual load factor varies from 35% to 50% from one factory to another,
with an average of 44%.
The load forecast over a 20 year period has been constructed on the basis of today’s
energy consumption patterns from the 4 factories and on a range of assumptions. The
results show that the energy and peak demands will reach respectively 11.6 GWh and
2.7 MW after 20 years, and the load factor will be 50%.
In the case of Gura SHP, there is no constraint on the energy that can be absorbed by the
4 tea factories load, while the excess power will be sold to the KPLC grid. Therefore,
the share of energy placed on the tea factories local network and the share of excess
energy sold to KPLC have been assessed, and the SHP scheme size has been optimised

by maximising the total energy sold to the Tea factories and to KPLC over the SHP
lifetime, without over investing.
The Gura SHP site is a run-of-river scheme with a high head (149m). Based on rainfall
data and nearby flow measurements (Gura gauging station), a design flow of 2.5 m3/s
has been selected for Gura SHP after optimisation, leading to an installed capacity of
2.8 MW and a mean annual production of 17.9 GWh; both being above previous
demand forecast. Energy generation has been simulated for median, dry and rainy years
considering the use of a Pelton turbine.
Then a scheme of power development has been prepared to maximise the river
potential. The exact location and routing of the structures such as the weir, the intake,
the settling basin, the waterway, the forebay, penstock and powerhouse have been
established accurately on detailed maps and drawings. The canal is about 6.6 km long
and 2.5 m broad and the steel penstock is 392 m long. Then 4.4 km of existing road
have to be rehabilitated to access the SHP site and 6.6 km of service road along the
canal. Detailed views of hydraulic structures have also been prepared. The dedicated
MV line will include 3 feeders of 11kV to reach the 4 tea factories with a total length of
about 35 km.
Salient features of the feasibility study (site location, hydrology, head, power, energy,
equipment, costing, financing) are given below.
It is assumed that the development of Gura would be undertaken via a Build-Own-
Operated company (BOO) only or in partnership with the tea factory (BOO + TF)
which will bring the equity required for the development of the 2.8 MW Gura Small
Hydro Power project. The set up of this company has still to be fixed.
In order to appraise Gura SHP project and to assess the profitability for the Project
Developer (through the criterion Return on Equity - ROE), IED has run an in-house
developed financial model covering all financial and fiscal aspects of hydropower plant
development, in a real life simulation of taxes and loan values. The model computes
project costs and revenue forecasts, including investment costs, contingencies, project
development costs, O&M costs, PPA conditions (feed-in tariff), equity/loan/grant
characteristics, macroeconomic parameters (exchange rate, depreciation, taxes, inflation
...) and Carbon revenue.
Simulations have been conducted for a baseline scenario as well as for other scenarios
with more pessimistic or more optimistic assumptions. The main results indicate that:
- In the baseline scenario the project cost has been estimated at 8.75 M$ for 2.8
MW SHP plant from which 57% is for civil works, 23% for electromechanical
equipments and 5% for the electrical network (MV lines).
- The investment cost of 2,966 US$/kW (96% or project cost) is relatively high
for this type of SHP plant and could be decreased with (partial) transfer of civil
work responsibilities to the tea factories. Loans are required to compensate the
initial negative cash flow.
- Each tea factory has limited assets but together (14M$), the consortium should
be able to provide the expected equity (35% of investment cost) by setting up a
BOO company. The pay-back period in the baseline scenario is about 12 years.

- The financial return measured by ROE is rather good and the Gura project
financially viable in both cases: 13.3% with BOO Company alone or 14.6% with
BOO Company together with the 4 tea factories, in the baseline scenario. The
small difference results from the limited savings on diesel fuel costs actually
supported by the tea factory. The financial risks are perceived to be minimal.
- A sensitivity study on the PPA tariff has demonstrated the importance to
negotiate with national regulator feed-in tariff higher than the published one to
make the project more attractive.
- The ROE factor is also improved by getting better CO2 market price, better
financing conditions, etc.
Other benefits as improved quality of electricity service leading to better quality and
quantity in tea processing have not been considered in the simulation.
To comply with national regulation, an ESIA study has been conducted along the
project layout to assess the environmental and social impacts of the SHP construction.
The main negative impacts pointed out are (i) the degradation of the vegetation cover
(removal, clearance), (ii) safety concerns over having an open waterway canal and (iii)
some minor risks of pollution during construction. As required in the national guideline,
mitigation measures and an ESIA plan are prepared before submission to National
Environmental Management Authority.

Salient features: GURA SHP

Location : GURA SHP - Nyeri District - KENYA
Longitude : 25.79 to 26.42 East
Latitude : 994.43 to 994.48 South
River source : Gura
Type of project : Simple RoR
Hydrology
Catchment area : 135 km2
Average flow : 4.16 m3/s
Design flow (57% exceedence) : 2.50 m3/s
Head
Gross head : 154.50 m
Net head : 147.54 m
Weir
Type : Ogee type spillway
Crest elevation : 2,066.00 m
Length : 35.00 m
Orifice size : 1 no 3.5x3.5 m (to flush off the sediments
of Gura river)
: 1 no 0.8x0.8 m (to allow the residual
flow-416 l/s- downstream)
Intake
Type : Side intake with one layer orifice
Upper layer orifice size : 2 nos. 1.5x1.5 m
Settling basin & Intake canal
Type : Concrete structure
Total length : 34.60 m
Dimension : Width 5.55 m and depth 5.00 m
Flow : 2.50 m3/s
Lower layer orifice size : 1 no 1.2x1.2 m (supplying the canal)
: 1 no 1.5x1.5 m (to flush off the sediments
downstream the weir)
Concrete trapezoidal canal
Type : Concrete lining
Length : 6,480 m
Dimension : Raft width 1.20 m and depth 1.83 m
Concrete rectangular canal (on posts)
Type : Concrete
Length : 185 m
Dimension : Width 2.50 m and depth 1.83 m
Forebay
Type : Concrete structure
Total length : 15.50 m
Overall dimension : Width 6.86 m to 3.15 m and depth 5.00 m
Penstock
Type : Steel pipe ND 900

Length : 392 m
Thickness : 10 mm
Powerhouse
Type : Surface powerhouse, stone masonry
structure
Floor size : Length 18.30 m Width 10.50 m and
height 5.50 m
Power and energy
Installed capacity : 2,840 kW
Median year annual energy : 17.87 GWh
Dry year T10 annual energy : 17.50 GWh
Rainy year T10 annual energy : 19.00 GWh
Turbine
Type : Pelton
Number of unit :2
Rated capacity : 1,420 kW each
Generator
Type : Synchronous
Number of unit :2
Rated capacity : 1,500 kVA each
Power transformer
Type : Outdoor, oil cooled
Number of unit :2
Rated capacity : 2,000 kVA, MV/11 kV
MV line
Type : Overhead on tubular pole
Length : 35 km following the existing track roads
Rated capacity : 11 kV - 3 phases
Supported by : 11 m poles spaced out by 130 m
Access road (Earthen, gravelled or concrete lined pavement)
Service road along the canal : 6,665 m
Rehabilitated existing road : 4,400 m (Kigumo road to access the weir)
New access : 300 m (to access to the powerhouse)
Financial parameters (Baseline scenario)
Total Project Cost : 8,752 k$
Investment cost : 2,966 US$/kW
Equity : 3,063 k$
Annual Energy produced : 17,866 MWh (average year)
Return on Equity for BOO Co : 13.3%
Return on Equity for BOO Co + 4TFs : 14.6%

1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background & Objectives
Greening the Tea Industry in East Africa, a small hydropower initiative, has recently
been approved by the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) Council. The project will be
co-implemented by UNEP & the African Development Bank (AfDB) and executed by
the East African Tea Trade Association (EATTA).
The objective of the proposed Small Hydropower (0.2MW - 5MW) Project (SHP) is to
reduce electrical energy use in tea processing industries in member countries of the East
African Tea Trade Association (EATTA) while increasing power supply reliability and
reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions through the removal of barriers. Specifically, the
project aims to establish 6 small hydro power demonstration projects in at least 4 of the
EATTA member countries, preferably with an attached rural electrification component
as well as prepare additional pre-feasibility studies. Both studies and planned
installations shall serve as training grounds for the entire tea sector in the region. A
special financing window shall be designed that will provide incentives for individual
tea processing plants to move into “green power generation”.
The project is a 4 year initiative endorsed by National Governments of eight EATTA
member countries in the region, namely: Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, Burundi,
Mozambique, Rwanda and Tanzania.
The initiative is coordinated by a Project Management Office (PMO) hosted by EATTA
and led by a PMO Director. The PMO is responsible for the operations of the project
leading to successful achievement of the project outputs and outcomes within the four-
year project period.
1.2 Work Activities

In the framework of a contract with EATTA, I.E.D. has undertaken two detailed
feasibility studies in two small-hydropower sites located in Kenya and Uganda.
As per Terms of References, I.E.D. has prepared, in a clear and concise manner, this
detailed feasibility study report for Gura Hydropower Site in Kenya.
The site is located along Gura River situated in the Eastern Aberdares region of Kenya
(Neyri District). The Tea Companies bordering the site are Kenya Tea Development
Agency (KTDA).
The feasibility study covers in detail the following key aspects, as described in this
Terms of Reference:
1. General assessment of the site and preliminary information
2. Small Hydropower Technical Feasibility
3. Demand Analysis and Load Forecast
4. Financial Analysis

5. Legal and Regulatory Framework

6. Environmental and Social Impact Assessment
7. Other Activities
The present draft report includes the following key outputs:
• Draft Feasibility Document
• Draft Report on Environmental Social Impact Assessment
• Pre-qualification of construction firms, electrical firms, turbine manufacturers
etc.
• SHP methodological note
• Project Idea Note (PIN)
The feasibility study will be presented to the Project Steering Committee, associated tea
factories and interested financiers
Additional outputs will be delivered with the final report including the following:
• Specifications and tender documents
• Final Report on Environmental Social Impact Assessment
• Certification from National Environment Management Authority (NEMA)
• Letters of no objection from affected parties
• Water abstraction permits from the Water Boards
It should be noted that IED has been working closely with local consultants in a way to
improve quality of delivered work (in particular for topographical, social and
environmental surveys) and in the same time has contribute to strengthen local capacity
to conduct detailed surveys and accurate reporting needed for a SHP feasibility study.
1.3 Project Background

1.3.1 Introduction to project area
The Aberdares range is an isolated volcanic mountain chain that forms the eastern wall
of the rift valley and runs about 100 kilometers north to south between Nairobi and
Thomson Falls. Two peaks dominate the range : Ol Donya Lesatima (3999 m) and
Kinangop. They are separated by a long saddle of alpine moorland. The terrain is
diverse with deep ravines that cut through the forested eastern and western slopes and
there are many clear streams and waterfalls. The Aberdares are a water catchment area
feeding two of Kenya’s most important rivers : the Tana and Athi rivers and part of
Central rift and Northern drainage basins.
Mist and rain occur throughout much of the year, with precipitation varying from
around 1 000 mm yearly on the north western slopes to as much as 3 000 mm in the
south east. Heavy rainfall occurs throughout most of the year although there are two
main rain seasons, from March 15th to May 30th (the “long rains”) and from October
15th to December (the “short rains”). It should also be noted that there are no real dry
seasons wherein the flow to the rivers is significantly reduced. For instance in Gathuthi,

the yearly rainfall average on the last 10 years was 1 357 mm per year with a maximum
of 1 970 mm in 1998 and a minimum of 763 mm in 2000 (cf. Chapter 4).
The population in tea growing areas of Kenya is usually of a dispersed yet relative
dense nature. People will tend to live in small plots of lands out of the estate scenario.
Most tea estates will also have labourer compounds wherein pluckers and estate
workers reside. In most cases drinking water is supplied to the compounds and
community halls, dispensaries and schools are also supplied with electricity. The
majority of households do not have access to electricity, although a number do use car
batteries.
Some households, although a small percentage, will also reside in the few villages
surrounding tea estates, these in most cases will be made up of a few shops, a posho
mill and a school. The Tea factories are usually located close to a town which will be
electrified and that provides a range of services.
Tea production is labor intensive and accounts for 80 000 people working on the estate
and about 3 million people earning their livelihood from the sector in direct and indirect
employment. KTDA factories alone are operated/ owned by 380 000 growers.
Tea growing and manufacturing are carried out in the rural areas thereby Tea Estates
contribute significantly to rural industrialization and to the range of services available
like schools and dispensaries and the standard of living, solid households and potable
drinking water and community halls.
1.3.2 Presentation of tea sector

Tea was introduced in Kenya in 1903 by the white colonialists for experimental
purposes. After 1915 and the land reforms producer groups developed in the
mountainous areas of Kenya. The industrial scale tea development occurred in the fifties
when the Kenyan government tried to promote small scale tea culture. Regulation was
ensured by the State and this dynamic sector developed from 21 500 hectares in 1963 to
113 900 hectares in 1997.
Today, the production of Tea in Kenya currently acts as the main export crop and
overall represents about 80 %1 of the total tea production in East Africa. In the world
market, in 2002 Kenya was the third largest producer after India and Sri Lanka and
second largest exporter of black tea after Sri Lanka. In 2001, the tea industry turnover
was 474 million USD of which 437 million USD occurred from export earnings with
the balance being the value of locally sold tea.
In 2004, total tea production in Kenya alone amounted to 324 608 tons. Currently the
small scale growers under the umbrella of Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA)
account for sixty percent of the total tea production while the multinational sector and
large scale growers account for the remaining forty percent.
Kenya tea has established a reputation world over for its high and consistent quality
throughout the year. Production goes on all year round with two peak seasons of high
crop between March and June and between October and December which coincide with
the short and long rains respectively.
1
Market Report, Sale 44 – 7th and 8th November 2005

Most Kenyan teas are manufactured using the Cut Tear and Curl (CTC) method of
manufacture, although some factories also produce orthodox tea for export in middles
eastern countries.
Investments in the sector are today focused on trying to significantly reduce production
costs. Investments in hydro power wherein production costs are significantly lower than
those by KPLC tariffs or diesel generator costs and a fast payback period are seen
optimistically by the sector. Today for example some of the tea companies are
investing into more energy efficient wood energy boilers.
In Kenya there are a total of 15 tea companies and 91 tea factories who are members of
EATTA. The companies can be classed into three types of players : (i) small holder tea
cooperatives, Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA); (ii) large multinational
companies; Unilever, EPK and James Finlay and (iii) private small estate holdings like
and Williamson, Nandi Hill, Sotik Highlands, Maramba etc.
In 2000, the public agency in charge of the organization of tea production was
privatized and took the name of the Kenya Tea Development Agency Limited – KTDA
Ltd. Today, KTDA accounts for the biggest tea producer in the country (61%)
managing 54 tea factories. It should be noted that Tea Factories subscribing to KTDA
services are independent and autonomous bodies.
KTDA acts as the direct beneficiary of this study and any future development will
depend on the interest and intent of KTDA and the individual Tea Factories at stake.
KTDA alone has 54 tea factories spread in 24 districts. The factories are owned by
380 000 growers. KTDA was responsible for 60 % of the tea production in 2002.
The following map illustrates the tea growing districts and in particular the project zone.
This cluster of Tea Factories is home to a total of 50 500 tea growers and a total of
63 500 households. Tea growers make up about 80% of the total households in the area.

Map 1.2: Tea Growing Districts of Kenya and project zone
The eight factories in the study area are in operation throughout the year each
processing an average annual 13 400 tons of green leaf tea per year amounting to about
3 200 tons of made tea. The ratio between green leaf tea to made tea amounts to an
average of 4.12 kg of green tea to 1 kg of made tea – this figure however varies from
factory to factory illustrating the varying efficiencies in processing – from plucking to
packing.
1.3.3 Power supply and Rural Electrification plan

1.3.3.1 Power sector organisation
Hydropower is central to electricity provision in Kenya: over 60% of Kenya’s
electricity is generated by large hydropower plants. It should be however noted that
drought prone countries, including Kenya have had drought induced power rationing in
recent years. The share of hydro power in the power mix in the future is predicted to
decrease.

In 1997, Kenya’s Electric Power Act allowed independent producers to supply

electricity to the grid, but small decentralized schemes, such as micro hydropower, were
not fully addressed. The New Energy Policy and the Energy Bill are very important
documents that indicate the direction in which the Kenyan power sector is headed and
will have important implications for SHP development in the country.
Institutional and power sector reforms in Kenya have to a large extent contributed to the
reduction in Ministry of Energy (MoE) direct control of the electricity industry. MoE
activities are now more focussing on policy formulation.
About 55 % of the Generation falls under the responsibility of KenGen, the only state-
owned company undertaking generation, whilst the Kenya Power and Lighting
Company (KPLC) is responsible for transmission and distribution. Plans are underway
to reduce Government’s shares in KPLC to 30 % to reduce its majority share holding
status. Recent sales of Government shares of KPLC have reduced government
ownership to below 50 %. Although there is still some debate on the issue, KPLC can
be legally considered to be a non-state controlled entity.
An electricity regulatory board – ERB - has been set in place and the government is
presently working on a programme to strengthen the institutional capacities in order to
improve their operational and financial performance. It should be noted that the
Ministry of Energy and the Electricity Regulatory Board have had experience with a
“light-handed regulation” approach which has resulted in the waiving of license
requirements for 2 decentralised micro-hydropower schemes in Central Province.
The distribution of electricity outside the main towns has been undertaken by the
Government of Kenya since the early 70’s. A Rural Electrification Fund was created
and fed jointly by the Government of Kenya, foreign loans and grants and KPLC
participation. The REF is under the direct control of the Rural Electrification Steering
Committee whose members are representatives from MOE and KPLC. KPLC executes
the works and operates the schemes by the Government of Kenya. It should be noted
that the Government only provides infrastructure through the Rural Electrification Fund.
Electricity supply is the mandate of KPLC. However, financial losses incurred by
KPLC in its supply of electricity to rural areas are reimbursed by the REF. This is,
however, to change in the near future.
Plans are underway to set up a Rural Electrification Authority to manage Rural
Electrification. One of the REA objectives will be to explore other non-conventional
alternatives to accelerate access to electricity, which will include small hydropower
development, photovoltaic systems etc.
As of June 2005, 6.8% of the rural population has access to electricity. The Government
goal is to connect 150 000 urban consumers per year. The prohibitive costs of extending
the national grid, at 1.3 million KES per km (16,250 USD per km) will require other
alternatives to be explored.
Kenya has made significant progress in reflecting electricity tariffs to long run marginal
cost restructuring the power sector opening the power generation market to private
investment and reforming the sector’s legal and regulatory environment. Specific
progress achieved under the reform program includes:
8. Unbundling of power generation transmission and distribution activities on one
hand and incorporation and commercialization on the other hand;

9. Entrance of IPPs;
10. Elimination of government subsidies to the sector with possibly the exception of
those to rural electrification;
11. Amendment of the Electricity Act which ascended in 1998 to legislate private
sector participation and the establishment of an independent regulator.
Cost of electric power in Kenya is however high compared to regional competing
nations in the COMESA region.

2 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK & CONNECTION

SCHEMES
2.1 Legal and Regulatory Framework
2.1.1 Objectives and Methodology
The institutional framework for implementing energy projects in Kenya has been
reviewed by the Consultant team. This review was inspired by a recent exhaustive
survey recently patronized on the same subject by the European Union. The detailed
information on the institutional framework are provided in Annex.
The Consultant highlighted critical points about the procedure and present key finding
concerning the organisation of the future SHP companies in the following paragraphs.
2.1.2 Gura SHP Connection scheme

The Small Hydro Power (SHP) projects on Gura river (Nyeri district) is primarily
dedicated to supply the tea factories in the proximity. They suffer high electricity prices
and low quality of power supply that are endangering their competitiveness on the
world tea market. Consequently 4 tea factories have expressed their wish to support and
to be part of the SHP project as it mainly aims at mitigating these negative economical
factors.
SHP generation provides the Kenyan tea factories with an opportunity to reduce their
operating costs through replacing the power supply from the local utility and from their
backup diesel generators by a cheaper hydropower production. The local SHP also
enables the tea factories to obtain a more secure and better quality supply through
dedicated MV connection lines.
As detailed in the next section (cf. § 2.2), different potential connexion scenarios for the
SHPP scheme have been considered during the study. It is finally recommended to
connect the SHPP scheme with 3 independent 11kV feeders to the 4 factories. An
additional feeder with switching system will allow the sales of extra power to the
national grid. This MV line shall be laid down following the main track road along
which the potential for rural electrification has been investigated (cf. § 3.5).
The new 11kV line could be theoretically operated and managed by either the SHP
operator or KPLC. Due to the risk born by non-utility staff when operating MV lines in
the open and the necessity to distribute power to the rural area, it is highly preferable to
transfer this responsibility to KPLC.
2.1.3 Legal and regulatory context

Gura SHPP development is fully compatible with Kenya power sector legal and
regulatory documents. Either a private or state owned promoter can build the
hydropower station, lay MV distribution lines and retail energy either directly to large
private customers or a licensed distributor or trader through a Power Purchase
Agreement (PPA). All these activities require that the promoter complies with the
official procedure and obtains the needed licenses and authorizations that refer to the
power, water and environmental specific aspects and to the non specific aspects of
establishing a business in Kenya as described in Annex.
An important question is to decide whether the planned installed power in Gura will be
more than 3 MW or less. In the first case a full fledged license will be necessary, which
involves a more complex and probably longer procedure. The procedure will also
include a competitive stage and more exposure to the environmental concerns that may
delay the project.
On the other hand, the choice for a less than 3 MW project will only require an
authorisation but may be questioned by the regulator if it is not getting the best of the
site from the public interest point of view.
If at a later stage of the study the financial analysis shows little difference between
sizing above/below 3 MW, the Consultant will recommend adopting a sizing below 3
MW.
Another point to consider with special care is the location of the water intake and
channel inside the Aberdare national park, which requires the intervention of the
Tourism Ministry.
2.1.4 KPLC point of view

As explained in the grid connection study, KPLC is the likeliest counterpart of the
promoter in the case where Gura SHP is connected to the grid. Due to the technical and
commercial conditions prevailing on the region, KPLC is interested by buying the
available energy and by taking advantage of the SHP opportunity to improve the quality
of supply.
KPLC is keen to retain the tea factories as its direct customers that is to buy the whole
of the energy generated by Gura and to retail it to its local customers. Nevertheless
KPLC understands the quality of supply problems of the tea factories and could accept
to fulfil quality obligations included in the PPA.
KPLC is neither in favour of the isolated operation of Gura that would result into energy
waste nor in favour of buying / selling power to Gura operator only, which would be the
case if the operator was selling directly to the tea factories. KPLC recognizes that it
cannot oppose that solution although it would obviously express concerns to the
regulator.
KPLC declares ready to operate the newly built MV lines and even the hydropower site
under a management agreement with the promoter.
In any cases, it is suggested that the contents of this section on grid connection scenario
be submitted to KPLC for confirmation and observations, as soon as the present study is
approved.
2.1.5 Investors and operators

It is still premature to recommend any promoter / operator arrangement. However the
following assertions are fuel for thought.
The following stakeholders may be part of the future institutional / organisational /
financial construction:

- The tea factories as promoters, shareholders, operators and/or consumers

- Other investors and shareholders only
- Energy Service Companies as primary investors in the context of a BOOT
contract
- Financial institutions (commercial banks and funds, IFIs and BFIs)
- Operators of the hydropower system and the MV distribution system.
The tea factories can expect positive returns from the following activities according to
their implications in the project:
a. Reduced costs and losses associated with an improved quality of supply
b. Reduced energy bills
c. Profits from their shares in the SHP company
The returns from the category (a) will depend on the operator’s commitment to ensure
quality of supply that can be ruled by the operator’s contract.
The returns from the categories (b) and (c) will strongly depend on the tariff charged by
the SHP Company. If the tea factories have a majority in the SHP capital structure they
will exert pressure to maintain the tariffs as low as possible to minimize their own
energy costs and the SHP fiscal taxes. Nevertheless the tariffs will also depend of the
financial costs charged by the financial institutions and the operating costs. In case of a
majority by external shareholders, the company will tend to maximize its tariffs, at a
level marginally competitive with KPLC, unless the tea factories have a long term
agreement with the SHP Company. In that case, the tea factories could financially
benefit from the SHP without having to invest too much.
2.2 Grid Connection Scheme Development

2.2.1 Quality issue
As mentioned earlier, the local SHP scheme will enable the tea factories to reduce their
operating costs as well as to obtain a more secure and better quality supply through
dedicated MV connection lines.
Quality of supply can be characterized by parameters qualifying respectively the level
and shape of the electric wave and the continuity of the supply. Concerning the quality
of the wave, the tea factories are especially sensitive to the voltage drops and surges as
they are using many motors. Excessive MV voltage drops are resulting from MV
voltage standards, long connection lines / insufficient square sections and heavy loads.
Surges are mainly due to atmospheric over-voltages that are affecting the electric lines
and can be transferred to the lower voltages.

Continuity of supply is resulting from the combined impacts of (i) generation and
demand balance, (ii) transmission and sub-transmission grid capacity and integrity, (iii)
distribution grid capacity and integrity. Unbalance between demand and generation can
cause general black-out or preventive load shedding, both generating long lasting
outages. Poor capacity of the transmission, sub-transmission and distribution grids can
result in regional or local load shedding or long lasting brown-outs. Transmission and
sub-transmission faults will cause either short brown outs, or voltage dips or medium to
long outages. Distribution faults will translate into either voltage dips or medium to
long lasting outages.
Sub-transmission and distribution MV feeders fault rates are heavily depending upon
their overall extension in km, insulation status and the number of the connected
substations.
2.2.2 Existing power supply

The Gura area receives power from the interconnected national grid. Gathuti, Gitugi,
Iria Ini and Chinga tea factories are connected to 2 of the 3 feeders in 11 kV originating
from OTHAYA substation 11 kV busbar. OTHAYA 33/11 kV substation is supplied by
a single 33 kV line originating from KIGANJO 132/33 kV substation.
The following map 2.1 beneath shows the 11 kV system linked to OTHAYA substation
and the connection locations of the tea factories:
• Gathuti and Gitugi tea factory are connected to the Othaya (carmine) feeder.
• Iria Ini tea factory is connected to that same feeder but on a long yellow spur
tapped on the feeder near the OTHAYA substation.
• Chinga tea factory is supplid by the Chinga (light blue) feeder.
The OTHAYA substation also supplies the Sagana Falls 11 kV feeder.

Power generation in Kenya is mainly from hydro. The country is also enjoying a robust
6% annual growth. Both factors are increasing the risk of power shortages at the
generation level especially in the recurring periods of drought. The 132 kV transmission
and 33 kV systems that are serving the OTHAYA substation are rather weak. The
developed length of the 33 kV feeder supplying the substation from KIGANJO is very
large at more than 150 km. All these factors combine to produce about 500 hours of
total outage per year, which is huge by international standards.
The local 11 kV network is in pretty good shape. KPLC local staff is well aware of the
tea factory concerns with power supply and does its best to maintain service but it has
little leeway on upstream shortages. The 11 kV specific quality of supply can also be
threatened in the future due to the dynamic electrification policy recently undertaken in
that area. The developed length of the 11 kV feeders is increasing without significant
reinforcement of the network structures, which will automatically result in a greater
amount of MV faults felt by each consumer.

Map 2.1: GURA area, Tea Factories and existing MV system

The present situation is not good in terms of voltage level. At peak time, voltage
approximate calculations (based on feeder lengths, cable cross-section, transit power
…) show that the 11 kV voltage drop exceeds the recommended 7% level in Gathuti
and Gitugi. Real voltage drops can be much worse when the 33 kV voltage cannot be
maintained in OTHAYA due to upstream low voltage regimes in HV and 33 kV. Losses
from the substation are in the order of 250 kW.
Figure 2.1: Voltage drop profile and power transit in Othaya feeder
Othaya Iria Ini Gitugi Gathuti
0.4%
4715.9 1.4%
706.7 7.0%
3391.9 8.7%
voltage drop 1194.1 8.2%
MVA transit 1216.2
The above drawing sketches the feeder supplying Gathuti, Gitugi and Iria Ini tea
factories in a simplistic ways. The power supply comes from the left at 11000 V in
Othaya. Chinga tea factory (the furthest) is supplied by another 11 kV feeder within
acceptable voltage conditions.
2.2.2.1 Balance between GURA supply and the tea factory demand
Based on the various scenarios that can be implemented to use GURA hydrological
potential, the following aspects have been taken into consideration for this preliminary
study:
• Tea factory peak power is between 5 and 600 kW per unit
• Tea factory annual power consumption ranges from 1900 to 2700 MWh per tea
factory
• GURA installed power is 2,8 MW (2x1,4)
• GURA annual generation is 9 GWh per unit
• GURA guaranteed power will not exceed 370 kW
• Water storage will not exceed 3 MWh.
Those numbers are coming from the detailed study provided in chapter 3 and 4 of this
report.
Consequently, there will be periods when GURA generation will exceed tea factory
demand, giving an opportunity to sell excess power to either KPLC or a private
consumer using KPLC grid. There will also be periods when tea factory demand will
exceed GURA generation, creating a need for back-up power.
2.2.3 Connection scenarios

2.2.3.1 Feasible scenarios
In the above circumstances, various technical scenarios can be considered to either
connect GURA to the grid or create an isolated grid dedicated to the tea factory supply:

A. with grid connection

1. Direct connection to the nearest existing 11 kV line (limit at 4 MW)
2. Direct connection to the nearest existing 33 kV line
3. Connection through dedicated 11 kV lines
B. without grid connection

1. Through dedicated 11 kV lines
The four possible scenarios A1 – A2 – A3 – B1 will be now scrutinized.
2.2.3.2 Scenario A1 (connection to existing 11kV)

In this scenario, GURA SHP is connected to the 11 kV Othaya feeder next to the
projected powerhouse (Munyange area). In this scenario, GURA generation is entirely
sold to KPLC. The SHP is coupled to the grid as far as it is live. If the grid is missing,
the SHP disconnects. The SHP can then be reconnected and run isolated on a manually
restructured 11kV network the demand of which does not exceed the potential GURA
generation. On grid return, manual intervention is necessary again to go back to the
coupled situation. There is no change in the existing tea factory power contracts with
KPLC and their energy purchases remain unchanged. They benefit as shareholders from
the profits made on the power sales to KPLC.
Due to the capacity of the existing ACSR 11 kV lines, this scenario is valid only for an
installed power of less than 4 MW.
As for quality of supply, there is no substantial change for Chinga Tea factory, which is
connected to the Chinga feeder. For the consumers supplied on the Othaya feeder, the
voltage regime has improved as shown on the figure below and the losses have been
reduced to less than 3%:

Othaya Iria Ini Gitugi Gura Gathuti
0.1%
1333.6 1.1%
706.7 0.2%
140.0 -0.8%
1455.0 0.2%
947.0 -4.3%
3142.5 1.3%
voltage drop 1188.7
MVA transit
The above drawing shows the injection of Gura power (3000kW, 1800 kVAR) in the
Othaya feeder that causes a voltage rise above 11000 V (negative numbers) in some
locations.
There is little change in terms of quality of supply as GURA is not able to supply the
whole Othaya feeder for most of the time, especially at peak period when load
sheddings are more likely to occur. Manual restructuring of the feeder to adjust demand
to GURA potential supply is a cumbersome process that would probably not allow
supplying Iria Ini, given the present structure of the feeder.
In this scenario the tea factories would also be concerned by any 11 kV fault on their
respective feeders.
2.2.3.3 Scenario A2 (connection to existing 33kV)

In this scenario, GURA SHP is delivering supply in 33 kV through a dedicated line to
OTHAYA 33 kV busbar as shown on map 2.2 below. This scenario applies when the
installed power in Gura is higher than 4 MW.
The contractual conditions are the same as in scenario A1. There is no substantial
change in the quality of supply conditions in terms of voltage level on the 11 kV side.
The situation may improve on the 33 kV side that has not been investigated as it has
little impact on the tea factory supply.

Map 2.2: Gura SHP grid connection scenarios

The main change in terms of continuity of supply is that GURA, due to its higher installed
power may sustain the full OTHAYA substation during load shedding most of the time on the
initial years of operation. That may simplify commuting between isolated and coupled
situations provided that adequate remote distance coupling equipment is installed in
OTHAYA substation.
2.2.3.4 Scenario A3 (connection to dedicated 11kV)

In this scenario, dedicated 11 kV feeders are proposed to connect the tea factories to GURA
SHP. The GURA SHP is also connected to the nearest KPLC 11 kV line. No additional
customer has been identified to be supplied by feeders that are linking GURA SHP and the tea
factories. However, to reduce feeder cost, 3 feeders are proposed and listed below:
• One feeder supplies GATHUTI tea factory
• One feeder supplies GITUGI tea factory
• One feeder supplies both IRIA INI and CHINGA tea factories
To reduce cost even more, either the feeders serving GATHUTI and GITUGI can be merged
or one single feeder can supply all the tea factories at the expense of the flexibility of
demand/supply balance.

This scenario allows the following operating conditions:

• Coupled operation when the grid is live provided that the voltage profile remains
acceptable.
• Isolated operation of the tea factory when the grid is out within the limit of the
available power in Gura.
Restrictions can apply in the case of the coupled regime when Gura generated power is low
and simultaneous tea factory demands are high. That could affect Chinga tea factory and to a
lesser degree Iria Ini that could be better supplied with their current connection. The voltage
profile at peak is as follows (Gura at 3 MW and tea factories at 600 kW):
Othaya Gura Gathuti Gitugi Iria Ini Chinga
0.1%
1653.2 0.1%
0.0 2.2%
1106.9 2.3%
238.1 2.4%
239.2 1.9%
320.1 2.5%
478.7 3.1%
720.1 3.1%
720.1 4.7%
voltage drop 1534.6 7.0%
MVA transit 763.2
As shown on previous map 2.2, the new lines will meander within the existing KPLC 11 kV
network. It is highly recommendable that the new 11 kV lines get distinctive features when

compared with the existing KPLC overhead lines to avoid operators’ mistakes that could
threaten safety and cause faults and equipment damage. Consequently these lines should be
realized with the MV aerial bundled conductor (MV ABC) technique that will enhance public
and staff safety, improve the quality of supply and reduce maintenance requirements at a
reasonable cost.
This scenario includes two commercial options A3a and A3b that are differing under the
commercial aspects:
• According to A3-a variant, Gura SHP operator also keeps control of the new feeders
and buys whatever energy is necessary from KPLC to compensate insufficient Gura
generation to supply the tea factories that are remaining connected. On the opposite
the operator sells any energy excess to KPLC.
• According to A3-b variant, Gura operator is limited to hydropower management. In
this case KPLC takes care of the MV system and buys the whole of Gura production
under a PPA specifying high quality standard for the tea factories.
A3a scenario requires that the Gura operator also manages the MV ABC feeders on the public
domain, which is somewhat unusual and maybe risky for non-utility staff.
Remarks: The above A3 scenario is equally dealing with all four tea factories. If Chinga tea
factory was not directly supplied by dedicated line, the investment cost of connection would
be seriously reduced and the operation simplified. In that case Chinga would only benefit
from the commercial impacts and not the technical improvement brought up by Gura.
2.2.3.5 Scenario B1 (isolated 11kV line)

In scenario B1, Gura SHP only supplies an isolated grid consisting of the dedicated feeders to
the tea factories as previously described for the scenario A3.
According to Gura power availability, one or more tea factories are supplied. The tea factories
not supplied by Gura connect to the grid as before. When both Gura and the grid are missing,
they use their diesel generator.
This solution does not require any PPA with KPLC. However two major inconveniencies
arise:
• excess hydropower shall be lost;
• the operator again shall manage the MV ABC feeders on the public domain.
2.2.4 Conclusion on grid connection

The following table reflects the advantages and the inconveniencies of the various connection
scenarios along the criteria given below:

Table 2.1: Pros and Cons of grid connection scenarios
Commercial
profitability
Operation
continuity
connexion
Quality of
Quality of
efficiency
Scenario
TOTAL
easiness
supply:
supply:
Energy
feature
voltage
Invest.
Main
cost
To existing
A1 ++ ++ +++ +++ ++ 13+
11kV
To existing
A2 +++ + + + ++ 8+
33kV
To new 11
A3a +++ + +++ +++ 11+
kV
To new 11
A3b +++ + +++ +++ ++ 13+
kV
Isolated
B1 ++ ++ + 5+
(11kV)
Table 2.2: Criteria of evaluation

Criteria 3+ means: no + means:
large loss of the hydropower
Energy efficiency full use of the hydropower potential
potential
satisfactory voltage profile in most
Quality of supply no sensible improvement of
current situations (with and without
voltage the voltage profile
Gura supply) for all the tea factories
Quality of supply strong improvement of the no significant improvement of
continuity continuity of supply the continuity of supply
SHP operator bears full
SHP operator bears no
Operation easiness responsibility of the grid in a
responsibility in the grid operation
coupled situation
additional investment cost for grid
Investment cost additional cost is heavy
connection is low
operational margin is
Commercial return operational margin is high
minimum
The table is suggesting the following conclusions:

• Scenario A2 is only relevant if Gura installed power is larger than 4 MW. It is also not
very efficient in terms of quality of supply and is relatively expensive.
• Scenario B1 does not enable the promoter to fully use Gura hydro potential, which is
negative for efficiency and commercial profitability.
• Scenario A1 is energy efficient, cheap and reasonably profitable but does not result in an
improvement of the quality of supply.
• Scenarios A3-a and A3-b are energy efficient and provides the tea factories with an
improved quality of supply. On the negative side, they require more investment and higher

operational qualifications. Scenario A3-b allows transferring the MV management to

KPLC at the expense of some profitability.
From the above, the Consultant will only consider scenarios A1 and A3-b for the economic
and financial analysis conducted as part of the feasibility study.
The economical analysis provided in Chapter 6 shall measure the implicit cost of quality
through comparison between scenarios A1 and A3-b. Indeed, the priority given to improve the
quality of power supply (higher voltage and continuity) gives a preference for the scenario
A3b but the investment cost has to be considered in more details before deciding which of the
two Scenarios should be recommended.

3 DEMAND ASSESSMENT AND LOAD FORECAST

3.1 Objectives
The objective of the demand analysis is to qualify and quantify the power demand of selected
tea factories, but also of the surrounding settlements, by mapping the present energy end-uses,
the range of fuels used and the fuel substitution potential.
The proposed SHPP scheme aims first to improve the quality of the power supply, and
secondly to reduce drastically the use of diesel for power generators in tea factories and their
electricity consumption from the national grid.
3.2 Methodology
The demand analysis has been conducted by the RE expert in the Tea Factory and other
potential clients in the vicinity of the factory. The adopted method was:
- Debriefing with the Hydropower expert to know with more accuracy the potential for
hydropower generation and the seasonal variation in the production.
- Debriefing with the Institutional expert to get the preliminary findings on institutional
issues and possible grid connection schemes
- Meetings with local authorities and power utility to get more information on the
project area (socio-economical, demographic, rural electrification plans, …)
- Detailed survey on the energy end-uses and energy needs of the Tea Factory
(electricity and thermal needs)
- Interview of the Tea Factory manager or with the board of members to assess their
priority energy needs and their interest and willingness to provide extra power to
surrounding settlements
- Detailed investigations to identify and to select the surrounding candidates for power
supply (villages, trading centres, tea buying centres, etc.)
After having interviewed all key actors and collected the appropriate technical and socio-
economical data/information, the RE expert has prepared the following demand analysis, the
load forecast and the local grid extension plan. All tea factories have provided detailed
information on their energy consumption for at least 2 years (hard and/or soft copies), except
Gathuthi factory which has not provided data on their diesel fuel consumption.
Some information gaps have supplemented by previous surveys conducted in 2004 and 2005
in the framework of the Scoping Studies and Pre-Feasibility Studies under UNEP and EATTA
and also via continued communication with the tea companies.
The range of data collected is described in the check-list for interviews and the questionnaire
for village survey (cf. in Annex). The data from the tea factories includes:
• Yearly and monthly power consumption for the past 2 years
• Yearly and monthly diesel consumption for the past 2 years
• Yearly and monthly Peak (kVA) for the past 2 years

• Yearly and monthly electricity and diesel fuel bill

• Hourly consumption for several days
• Plans in processing expansion, with qualified/quantified data.
Other key issues have also been investigated during the interviews with the Tea Factory staff
as:
- financial capacity to carry the main investment (based on balance sheet for last 2 yrs)
- technical skills for O&M activity required for the SHPP scheme and distribution
network
Wherever possible, additional data on power consumption for individual households and
various activities and services were also obtained from the Ministry of Energy (ongoing Rural
Electrification Master Plan), from the Utility or from the tea factories themselves. Where
specific consumption data was not available the Consultant has drawn on its wide rural
electrification experience in the region.
3.3 Local interests in SHP and RE development

Large amounts of thermal energy and electrical power are needed to produce Black Tea. Tea
factories in Kenya rely on fuel wood and furnace oil to meet their thermal needs and on grid
power and diesel generators to meet their electrical needs.
On average, energy accounts for 0.18 USD/kg of made tea (18 % of the current selling price
for tea; 1.04 USD/kg). The next charts show the critical weight of the diesel consumption
(almost 60% in 2006) in the cost structure and the weight of the wood and the energy balance:
Figure 3.1: Energy cost and energy content in one ton of made tea
Energy cost
458.23
3% Energy content (USD/ton of made tea)
9.10
0%
(kWh/ton of made tea)
1139.96
7%
grid
76.60 diesel
grid 43% 88.35
oil
diesel 50%
oil wood
wood
9.074.05
15553.05 5% 2%
90%
Based on billing from energy suppliers, the following energy costs have been calculated for
the different sources:
• The kWh unit price is 5.1 KES but the average electricity tariff paid by the 4 tea
factories in 2007 was close to 10 KES per kWh or 0.14 USD/kWh, when including
fixed charges, taxes and levies. Power factor surcharge are usually avoided by
factories. 16% VAT is not refunded since 2003 (Gitugi).
• The average price for diesel fuel in 2007 was close to 70 KES/litre or 0.3 USD/kWh
equivalent.

• The firewood was sold on the local market in 2007 between 700 and 1500 KES per m3,
i.e. in average 20.5 USD per ton or 0.4 cents of USD/kWh equivalent.
• The furnace oil was sold at around 27 KES per litre or 2 cents of USD/kWh.
Table 3.1: Specific energy costs per source
2007 Average price USD / kWh
Grid 10 KES / kWh 0.14
Diesel 70 KES / L 0.29
Wood 1200 KES / m3 0.004
Oil 27 KES / L 0.02
In addition to the effective costs of purchasing or growing the varying fuels, there are great
losses which are incurred in production quality when power outages or voltage drops are
experienced.
Each tea factory has strongly expressed its interest in producing hydropower itself to:
- Improve the power quality and availability,
- Reduce the operating costs,
- Sell extra power to KPLC and make benefits
- To provide power to surrounding settlements in the tea catchment area
It has clearly indicated that any positive impact from the project shall benefit to all tea farmers
as they are all shareholders of the factories. Any improvement of power quality or any cost
reduction will increase the profit on tea sales and thus the farmers’ incomes.
3.4 Power demand from tea factory

3.4.1 Thermal power requirements
As in every tea manufacturing unit, the tea drying process requires very large amount of heat.
The 4 selected tea factories (Gathuthi, Gitugi, Iria Ini and Chinga) are reliant on firewood and
when necessary on furnace oil for their heat applications. The boilers and furnaces installed
are as follow:
Table 3.2: Capacity of thermal equipments
Tea Factory Wood boiler Oil furnace Comments
Gathuthi 2 1
Gitugi 1 2
Iria Ini 2 1 Oil is 3 times more expensive
Chinga 1 2
The consumption of fuel is closely linked to the production of made tea which strongly varies
between dry and rainy seasons.

Figure 3.2: Annual thermal fuel consumption vs. made tea production
Made Tea (kg) - 2007
Wood + Oil consumption (GJ eq.) - 2007
500000
18,000
450000
16,000
400000
14,000
350000
300000 Gat hut hi 12,000
Git ugi 10,000 Gitugi
250000
Iria Ini Iria Ini
200000 8,000 Chinga
Chinga
150000 6,000
100000 4,000
50000 2,000
0 0
m ar
jul
oc t
m ay
apr
nov ' 06
jan 07
jun
aug
s ep
dec
feb
m ar
ju l
oc t
m ay
apr
nov ' 06
ja n 0 7
ju n
aug
s ep
dec
fe b
In average for the 4 factories, the specific wood consumption varies over the months from 3.0
to 5.0 m3 for every ton of made tea. In addition some furnace oil is consumed when the
factories face wood shortage; the consumption is in average 50 litres/ton of made tea. In terms
of energy, the furnace oil part is not more than 10% of the total fuel consumption for thermal
needs but in term of cost, the use of expensive oil compared to wood price has high impact on
the tea production price. In Gitugi, the oil expenditure was almost 40% of the total thermal
fuel cost (wood+oil). Indeed the price for wood is in average 16 USD/ ton while the oil price
is 0.37 USD/ litre. For Iria Ini, the furnace oil costs about 18 KES per kg of made tea while
wood cost is only 5 to 8 KES.
For example in Chinga tea factory where 4,236 tons of made tea were produced over the last
12 months, the consumption of thermal fuels (wood + oil) amounts to 13,610 m3 or 10,890
tons of wood and 268,826 litres of oil, corresponding to about 63.36 GWh/year when convert
into equivalent thermal kWh (2). About 15 kWh of thermal equivalent per kg of made tea
were needed which is almost double of what has been recorded in Uganda (Igara tea factory).
When assuming that 1 ha of tree plantation produces in average 22 m3 of firewood (3), the tea
factory should have at least 682 ha of forest to be self-sufficient or should harvest at least
0.25 ha of forest for each hectare of tea plantation.
As shown by the previous graphs (Fig. 3.1), the thermal energy requirements represent about
half of the total energy costs incurred by the Tea Factories.
Yet in terms of energy content, the thermal power needs represent 89% of the total energy
requirements of the production process. The power requirements to substitute the overall
energy needs (thermal and electrical) of Chinga tea factory has amounted to 66 GWh for
2007, of which 57.5 GWh were or the thermal energy needs.
Other alternatives have been investigated in some of the tea factories as coal, saw dust,
baggast but furnace oil remains the cheaper and easiest backup option after wood. Electricity
furnaces have not been investigated as grid prices are too high.
2
by using the factors 0.8 ton/m3, 5.28 kWh/kg of firewood, 21.84 kWh/litre of oil, 3.6 MJ per kWh
3
The produced volume at the end of the 12 years has been valued in 264m3 / ha. The Annual Medium Increment
in case of the Eucalyptus sp. is 22 m3/ ha/ year.

Given the significant thermal energy requirements of the selected tea factories in Kenya and
the potential to sell excess electricity back to the grid at good price, this feasibility study will
not consider the potential for substituting the use of wood by electricity to meet the thermal
needs.
However tea factories are willing to find alternative to fuel wood as the market price has
increased from about 150 to 1250 KES in 10 years.
3.4.2 Electrical power requirements

3.4.2.1 Installed capacities & annual consumption
The 4 tea factories are running in the same way their production lines with priority to the main
grid when available and with backup diesel generators during power outages. Most of the
backup systems are old and outdated but still running with maintenance costs. Recent
improvements concern mainly the strengthening of the transformer and the electronic meters
from KPLC. Capacity banks have also been increased to keep the power factor below
penalties.
Table 3.3: Installed capacities and energy consumption per source
Transformer Genset Year Capacity
TF Comments
capacity unit of inst. bank
(kVA) (kVA) (kVAR)
200 (HS) Very old backup
Gathuthi 1000
450 system
330 > 15
Gitugi 1000 15 x 25 Old generators
450 > 10
200 ‘81
Iria Ini 1000 2 banks Old generators
450 ‘93
200
Chinga 1000
450
The factories don’t have major extension plan in terms of production capacity but they put
efforts to improve productivity and energy savings with existing equipments.
The power network in tea factories is usually designed with several separate lines:
- One or several departures (3 phases) for the factory
- One departure (single phase) for the administrative block
- One departure (single phase) for the worker settlements in the vicinity of the factory.
The same lines are supplied either by the grid or by the backup gensets. On the grid side, there
is one main power meter (3-phase electronic meter), monthly read by KPLC.
There is usually no energy meter on diesel generators, only the fuel consumption is recorded
in logbooks.
The annual consumption of energy for 2007 (with extrapolation for the last 2 months) is
summarised in the following table:
Table 3.4: Energy consumption per source

TF Grid Grid Diesel Wood Oil Reliance

peak consum. consum. consum. consom. on diesel
(kVA) (MWh/yr) (l/yr) (ton/yr) (l/yr) (%)
Gathuthi 519 1,909 n.a. 10,732 n.a. n.a.
Gitugi 530 1,878 12,561 9,134 195,275 2.2%
Iria Ini 557 2,200 14,425 15,898 83,634 2.1%
Chinga 629 2,722 14,746 13,610 268,826 1.8%
3.4.2.2 Reliance on diesel genset

The previous table indicates the reliance on backup diesel generators to provide continuous
supply of the electricity to the factory. The recent strengthening of the grid lines and power
supply in Nyeri district has noticeably reduced the dependence to the backup units: grid
power consumption has increased and diesel consumption has decreased.
3.4.2.3 Monthly Power consumption

The tea production is directly linked to the rainy season and shows usually 2 peaks (cf. fig.
3.2):
- one peak between September and December
- one lower peak around May.
The electrical power demand is typically the lowest in July-August corresponding to the off-
peak season.
The monthly consumption of electrical power (from grid and backup genset) is fluctuating
between 100 and 250 MWh per month, with a total for the 4 factories of more than 8.5 GWh
for 2007, as shown in the next graph and table.
Figure 3.3: Annual electricity consumption from the 4 tea factories
Tea Factory - Annual Consumption Tea Factory - Annual Consumption
(grid+genset)
300 1,000
250 800
MWh/month
200 Gitugi
MWh/month
600
Chinga
150 All TF
Iria Ini 400
100 Gathuthi
200
50
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
10
11
12
Months
Months
Table 3.5: Annual electricity consumption from the 4 tea factories (2007)

2007 (MWh) 1 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Tot

Gathuthi 179 147 82 114 188 127 91 87 130 177 139 160 1,621 MWh
Gitugi 190 174 173 155 180 156 104 99 162 174 167 187 1,919 MWh
Iria Ini 224 218 197 192 230 185 121 100 146 206 214 214 2,248 MWh
Chinga 269 241 206 213 253 224 157 153 253 281 251 269 2,771 MWh
Total 862 780 659 674 851 692 474 439 690 838 771 830 8,559 MWh
3.4.2.4 Max peak load and load factor

As shown in the table below, the highest peak loads recorded in the tea factories are usually in
December - January between 500 and 600 kW.
All tea factories have batteries of capacitors to compensate the reactive power of their
equipments. They manage the compensation to be above 0.92, as KPLC penalties start below
0.9. The KPLC meters measure both active and reactive power to control the power factor
correction.
Table 3.6: Maximum peak electricity demand from the 4 tea factories (2007)
2007 (kW) 1 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Max
Gathuthi 519 450 397 413 500 500 382 404 516 516 477 477 519 kW
Gitugi 530 530 464 525 504 493 442 447 488 488 509 530 530 kW
Iria Ini 545 547 516 516 530 535 557 478 493 547 545 545 557 kW
Chinga 629 611 567 583 620 620 526 539 628 628 617 629 629 kW
Total 2,223 2,138 1,944 2,037 2,154 2,148 1,907 1,868 2,125 2,179 2,148 2,181 2,223 kW
Figure 3.4: Annual peak load curve (kW) for the 4 tea factories
Tea Factory - Yearly Load Curve Tea Factory - Yearly Load Curve
700 2,500
600
2,000
500
Gitugi
400 1,500
Chinga
All TF
kW
kW
300 Iria Ini 1,000

Gathuthi
200
500
100
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
6
7
10
11
12
Months Months
As the tea factories have the same process programme over the hours and days, the individual
load peaks can be added and the red curve above can be considered as first approximation
with a max peak load of 2,200 kW.
The annual load factor for each tea factory was ranging between 40% and 50% in 2007
based on the annual consumptions. This load factor is the actual amount of kilowatt-hours
consumed by the tea factory in one year as opposed to the total possible kilowatt-hours that
could be delivered to the factory during that year. A high load factor indicates high usage of
the system’s equipment and is a measure of efficiency. Lowest values are obtained in July and
August (off-peak season).

3.4.2.5 Daily load curve

The daily load curve provides a closer indication of what happens in terms of demand over a
24 hour period. Hourly data are not daily recorded by the factories but data for specific days
have been recorded on demand. The following graph illustrates the variation in consumption
over an hourly period for one day in November (peak season). The shape of the load curve is
supposed to be similar every day except on Monday (fixed maintenance day).
The typical load peak occurs in the morning starting at 8:00. The production is usually
reduced during night period.
Figure 3.5: Daily load curve for the 4 tea factories
TF Daily Load Curve (Nov 2007)
450
400
350
300 Gathuthi
250
kW
Chinga
200
150 Gitugi
100
50
0
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-11
11-12
12-13
13-14
14-15
15-16
16-17
17-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
0-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
3.5 Rural Electrification Power demand

3.5.1 Existing grid
The Gura SHP project is located in Nyeri district where the power distribution network has
been intensively extended during the last 2 years thanks to strong government support, as
shown by the network map in Annex. At the time of the pre-feasibility study, a large number
of villages, trading centres and public infrastructures were not electrified and no clear plan of
grid extension was available. Only 10% of the so-called Tea Buying Centres (TBC) was
electrified.
Today the Government through its Rural Electrification Authority has supported the extension
of the 11kV feeders (from Othaya 33/11kV sub-station) in 2 phases: the first one targeted in
priority the main important villages that include active trading centres and public
infrastructures; the second phase which is now close to completion has targeted the remaining
clusters of settlements and potential customers from each sub-location (lowest administrative
division4), including the Tea Buying Centres (TBC – see next §).
4
Administrative boundaries in Kenya: Province > District > Division > Location > Sub-location > Village

Today the national grid (11kV) has extended far to the West, close to the Aberdare National
Park border, most of the villages are located at less than 3km and 60% of the TBC are already
electrified with new transformers (usually 50 kVA – 3 phases).
Table 3.7: Inventory of Tea Buying Centres around tea factories
Tea Buying Centres Gathuthi Gitugi Irai-Ini Chinga
Non electrified 16 12 12 17
Electrified (or ready) 28 18 27 26
Total 44 30 39 43
During the field visit in the vicinity of the 4 selected tea factories, KPLC was still working in
the field to extend their 11kV lines5 toward remote TBC as the dead line to cover 100% of the
area is December 2007. Therefore there is no RE potential for the Gura SHP project to
include a rural electrification component as explained in Chapter 5. However, despite the very
good coverage with the grid extension, small localities may also not be connected and the
actual household electrification rate is most probably below 50% (not known yet).
3.5.2 Power demand from leaf collection centres

The tea plantations attached to 4 tea factories are scattered on the East slopes of the Aberdare
range. The green tea leaves harvested by farmers is daily collected at Tea Buying Centres
(TBC). Those centres are spread all over the “tea catchment area” to ensure that farmers don’t
have to walk too long with their harvest. All of them are located on a network of track roads
to be reached by trucks.
The typical infrastructure is a basic permanent building with hard walls and roof and its size
ranges from small to large depending of the farmer number linked to that centre. However the
regional managing unit of KTDA has requested KPLC to extend the grid until the buying
centres to provide power for basic lighting, weight measuring & recording equipments and
computers.
Despite the sporadic requirement of power to supply few lamps during the peak evenings
only, KPLC is providing 50kVA transformer6 in the proximity of each TBC; the underlying
idea being that TBC will encourage the emergence of new trading centres and become
attractive centre for business development and new settlements. The TBC are never farer than
3km from tea farmer’s houses.
In this context it is clear that there is no potential for a rural electrification component in the
framework of this Small Hydro Power project. However the hydro power generation in the
area is most welcome to alleviate the shortage of power due to the fast growing demand (total
33/11/0.4 kV losses are above 20%).
As the 4 targeted tea factories belong to KTDA and are 100% owned by the tea
growers/farmers, all of them will benefit directly from the SHP project (either through power
quality improvement or through lower kWh cost for tea production). The increase of income
5
KPLC cost: 825,000 KES for 1km of 11kV line (3 phase bare ACSR – 75mm² - 11m poles) or about 12,700
USD (includes labour but not local transport)
6
KPLC cost: 205,000 KES for 50kVA-11/0,4kV transformer + 160,000 KES for structure = 365,000 KES or
about 5,600 USD (or 112$/kVA).

is expected to help them to afford the connection fees (fixed 35,000 KES) and monthly
instalments. Today about 50% of them are able to connect to the grid when available.
3.6 Global power demand (Year 1)

3.6.1 Total Power Demand
Based on the previous findings, the total load to be considered for the Gura SHP project is
from the 4 selected tea factories only as most of surrounding localities or trading centres are
already electrified or shall be in a near future by governmental programmes. Therefore the
total energy & power demand can be summarised by the following table:
Table 3.8: Total energy demand and peak load for Gura SHP project
Energy Gross peak Net peak Load Factor
2007 Losses Production
demand load load
MWh kW % MWh kW %
Gathuthi* 1,621 519 8% 1,751 561 35.6%
Gitugi 1,919 530 8% 2,073 572 41.3%
Iria Ini 2,248 557 8% 2,428 602 46.1%
Chinga 2,771 629 8% 2,993 679 50.3%
Total 8,559 2,223 9,244 2,414 44.0%
(*) Data for Gathuthi are calculated from 2005 values, due to lack of data for 2006-7
3.6.2 Load Curves

The daily load curves have been drawn in previous section (§ 3.4.2) for 3 of the tea factories
for specific days in November. The load curve for Iria Ini has not been provided but the
manufacturing process over one day is similar in the 4 factories. Therefore the aggregate load
curve for the 4 factories can be extrapolated from the 3 previous curves to give the following
total daily load curve at peak (2,223 kW) during the peak season (November) where the tea
factory operates 24 hours.
Figure 3.6: Expected daily load curves for the 4 Tea Factories
Daily Load Curve at peak (4 tea factories)
2500
2000
1500
Average
1000
500
0
00
00
00
00
00
0
0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
6:
8:
0:
2:
4:
10
12
14
16
18
20
22

3.6.3 Load Duration Curves

The Load Duration Curve (LDC) is a non-chronological graph, which plots demand
magnitude (power) on one axis and percent of time that the magnitude occurs on the other
axis. It provides a summary of demand levels and should be developed on the basis of the
hourly load curve.
Given the absence of hourly power measurement data over one year for the tea factory, it is
necessary to simulate the load duration curve based on several key information collected
from the factory as:
1) The typical daily load curve starts with a peak in the morning and decreases slowly
during the day, with a minimum demand during the night (half of the peak value).
2) An annual Load Factors have been calculated for each factory over one year based on
the total electricity consumption and the maximum peak power, an average value of
45% has been considered.
3) During maintenance day every Mondays the consumption is drastically reduced (about
10% for auxiliaries and worker settlements). Therefore 15% of the time (52 days / 365
days), the required power is at its minimum.
4) The maximum power demand is rather constant over the year (about 10% variation);
the peaks occur usually during May-June and October-November-December periods.
The total peak demand recorded in 2007 for the 4 tea factories was 2,200 kW. The
demand is rather close to the peak value during the equivalent of at least 1 month, i.e.
8% of the annual time.
5) The behaviour of the curve between the maximum and minimum demand is dictated
by the load characteristics of the tea production and the number of production lines in
operation.
Figure 3.7: Load Duration Curve models (%)
Load duration curve models
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
One TF
50%
40% Four TF
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
8%
17%
25%
33%
42%
50%
58%
67%
75%
83%
92%
100%
The above load duration curve in blue colour has been simulated specifically for one tea
factory. When adding other tea factories on the local distribution network, it is necessary to
model again the load duration curve for the whole system as the curves for each tea factory
can not be simply added.
The red curve above is the model LDC curve obtained for 4 similar tea factories inter-
connected, based on additional considerations as:

6) An annual Load Factor of 45% for the whole system has been assumed.
7) The maximum peak loads from the tea factories can be added for a short period of
time
8) To optimise the use of hydropower from Gura scheme, it is highly recommended to
shift the maintenance toward different days to avoid long and low off-peak demand (1
day per week is equivalent to 15% of the time at a level of 10% of peak power for
each factory).
9) The minimum power required is dictated by the combination of 3 factories working at
their lowest level (night time) and one factory stopped for maintenance; this happens
for about 6 hours per night and 4 nights per week, i.e. 15% of the time
10) The power demand remains at a low level for another 10% of the time when the 4
factories are in production during night time.
11) The curve between the maximum and minimum demand will be little affected by
adding all tea factories, giving a final load duration curve close to the curve for one tea
factory only.
The following load duration curves (in kW) are obtained when applying the model curve (in
%) to the actual max peak power for each factory.
Load duration curve (kW)
700
600
500 Chinga
400 Iria Ini
kW
300 Gathuthi
200 Gitugi
100
0
0%
%
10
21
31
42
52
63
73
83
94
The last curve below (in kW) shows frequency of the power demand for the 4 tea factories
when using the red model curve above.

Kenya Load duration curve (kW)
2500
2000
1500
kW
4 Tea factories
1000
500
0
0%
%
0%
13
25
38
50
63
75
88
10
3.7 Load forecast

In any rural off-grid electrification project, the assessment of the demand must be addressed
carefully and in priority before any design work for the power generating and distribution
system.
In our specific case of Gura SHP project where no rural electrification is proposed for the
project area, the load forecast (LF) is simplified and constructed on the basis of today’s
energy consumption pattern of the 4 selected tea factories.
Consumption growth rates and peak growth rate are then assumed so as to derive the demand
for power over a 20 year period, as shown in the next table.
Peak growth factor (%/yr) Y 1-2 Y 2-10 Y 11-20
Tea factory growth factor 5.00% 1.00% 0.50%
Consumption growth rate Y 1-3 Y 3-10 Y 10-20

Tea factory 5% 1.5% 1%

Table 3.9: Load Forecast for Tea Factories

Gathuthi, Gitugi, Iria Ini & Chinga Tea Factories (Kenya)
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Peak Power Demand kW 2223 2334 2357 2381 2405 2429 2453 2478 2503 2528 2540 2553 2566 2578 2591 2604 2617 2630 2644 2657
Peak growth factor % 5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Gross Energy Demand MWh 8559 8987 9436 9578 9722 9867 10015 10166 10318 10473 10578 10683 10790 10898 11007 11117 11228 11341 11454 11569
Consumption growth factor % 5% 5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Load Factor % 44% 44% 46% 46% 46% 46% 47% 47% 47% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50%
LF growth factor % 0.0% 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Figure 3.10: Load forecast indicators
Load Forecast
14000
12000
10000
8000 Peak Power Demand

6000 Gross Energy Demand
4000
2000
0
1
11
13
15
17
19
Year

3.8 Prospects for Energy Savings

Although not part of the ToR of the Feasibility study, the Consultant recommend that the tea
factories should carry out detailed energy audits: it is not considered a good practice to start
generating electricity that is subsequently wasted in-house. An energy audit should therefore
be part of the field activities before starting the construction phase.
Based on the information obtained from the energy invoices, metered consumption,
observations and calculations, the following will be provided by the Energy Audit:
• A table showing the consumption, the unit costs, and total costs for all purchased
energy for the previous 3 years
• A table showing the percentage changes and trends in energy costs over the previous 3
years
• A summary of energy intakes such as supply meters and tariffs
• Energy performance indicators for each facility will be calculated and compared with
benchmarks values established from similar institutions.
• The ‘maximum demand’ profile over a two or three weeks period , depending of the
kind of equipment.
• The most economical supply tariff, based on ‘maximum demand’ profile and past
invoices
• The need for power factor correction
• The suitability of putting generator(s) in standby mode, updating or replacing existing
equipments
In terms of Energy Management, the following will be studied:

• Existing energy management procedures, information available and metering and at the
site.
• Improvement that can be made to the existing system.
• Manpower availability, energy awareness levels and the cost requirements for setting up
an improved system of energy management.
• Systems of energy management based upon quantitative measures of performance using
monitoring and targeting, relating energy consumption to known variables.
• Management structures for collecting and processing data and taking action in response
to the findings.
• System of recognizing energy savings and giving incentives to the staff to save energy.

4 SHP TECHNICAL DESIGN

4.1 General description of the site and location
The Aberdare range, which is the area sheltering the project in the Central Region North of
Nairobi, is an isolated volcanic mountain chain that forms the eastern wall of the Rift Valley
and runs about 100 kilometres north to south between Nairobi and Thomson Falls. Two peaks
dominate the range: Ol Donya Lesatima (3,999 m) and Kinangop (3,906 m). They are
separated by a long saddle of alpine moorland. The terrain is diverse with deep ravines that
cut through the forested eastern and western slopes and there are many clear streams and
waterfalls. The Aberdares are a water catchment area feeding, with Gura river, two of
Kenya’s most important rivers: the Tana and Athi rivers.
Between Aberdares and Mount Kenya (5,200 m), Gathuthi, Gitugi, Iria Ini and Chinga tea
factories are located in the Nyeri lowland area (around 1,750 m) This hilly area is rather wet
providing the right conditions for tea growth as well as sufficient water to assure local hydro
potential. In that area and facing west-east, Gura river valley, in strong V shape is straight.
This river receives, at least in its final part, very short tributaries. The first two factories are
located very close to Gura river on both sides.
In this area, rainfall is caused by orographic lifting of coastal air coming from the Indian
Ocean, forced to elevate to higher altitudes by the almost continuous mountain range formed
by the two mountainous areas. The rains are increased by the large protected forest covering
the slopes of this chain.
Mist and rain occur throughout much of the year, with precipitation varying from around
1,000 mm yearly on the north western slopes to as much as 3,000 mm in the south east. Heavy
rainfall occurs throughout most of the year although there are two main rain seasons, from
March 15th to May 30th (the “long rains”) and from October 15th to December (the “short
rains”). It should also be noted that there are no real dry seasons wherein the flow to the rivers
is significantly reduced. For instance in Gathuthi tea factory, the yearly rainfall average on the
last 10 years was 1,357 mm per year with a maximum of 1,970 mm in 1 998 and a minimum
of 763 mm in 2000.
An important fact to be noticed is that most of Gura catchment area is close to a large
protected natural forest (Aberdare Forest) growing in the highlands and attracting
precipitation. This river draining in the Gathuthi and Gitugi tea catchments has in fact a large
watershed that depends on this protected forest to smooth the flow variations and importantly
reducing the occurrence of floods.
The four tea factories rely on KPLC power for the majority of their power needs and on
average for 5/7% of the time on heir diesel generators as a backup to KPLC power outages.
Power is delivered at each by a 33/11 kV line. Once it reaches the Tea Factory a step down
transformer converting the power to 240 kV is often found. The Tea Factory distributes the
power accordingly within its premises to the various load centres.

4.2 Gura SHP: Geology, Hydrology and Topography

4.2.1 Geology
4.2.1.1 Regional geology
The area of Nyeri is composed almost of entirely of volcanic rocks comprising lavas and
basalt which, particularly west of the Aberdare range, are considerably faulted. Although the
oldest rocks cannot be dated accurately it is believed probably tertiary age.
The oldest rocks in the area are the basalt of the Simbara Series7 exposed on Gura valley.
These porphyritic rocks are overlain by basaltic agglomerates (or autobreccias); all are
grouped together as representing the Simbara Series and are believed to be of Miocene age.
The series has a probable minimum thickness of about 3,000 feet but the base was not seen.
Closely associated with this period of vulcanicity are dyke-like intrusions of other basaltic
composition which outcrop on Niandarawa and the Elephant.
During the period of erosion that followed the extrusion of the Simbara Series, the landscape
composed of these rocks was highly dissected so that subsequent volcanic deposits were laid
on a very uneven surface (these rocks belong to Laikipian group). The unconformable contact
between the two series is seen in the south of Nyeri district, east of Othaya. No dykes were
observed cutting any of these rocks.
Mainly composed of faded basalt, these representatives of Laikipian group compose the high
peaks of the Aberdare range and are found mainly in the Kikuyu special area and east of the
Aberdare range.
4.2.1.2 Site geology

It was examined during the site visit (from October 27 to November 7, 2007) and on the basis
of documents placed at our disposal.
The documents placed at our disposal were as follows:
- Extracts of a geological report which deals with an area of approximately 1,200 squares
miles, bounded by latitudes 0°30’ and 1°00’S and by longitudes 36°30’ and 37°00’.
- The geological map of the Kijabe area.
This map includes parts of the countries of Gura river in the north, Maragua river in the
middle and Chania river in the south
Only a first field geology survey was held to identify the under surface geology at every
building location and the land area. (the border of the technical geology information we get
follow the border of topography measurement)
The main rocks encountered are fine-grained, dark basaltic rocks becoming lighter-coloured
as the felspar content increases, when the basalts appear also to be more vesicular. Another
characteristic feature is that black augite crystals often stand out on weathered surfaces, or can
be easily seen on fractured surfaces. The lower basalts on Gura valley are rich in
ferromagnesian constituents, olivine and plagioclase in a groundmass of the same minerals.
The source of the boulders seen in Gura river possibly represents the oldest rock in the area;
and the rocks most likely formed in the throat of the volcano responsible for the eruption of
the Simbara basalts.
7
The Simbara Series was first described by Shackleton in 1945.
On the two sides of the river the superficial materials are made of a thick layer of laterite.
4.2.1.3 Further investigations required

During the establishment of the detailed design study, a certain number of investigations will
have to be carried out near the works.
The field survey can be described as it follows:
4.2.1.3.1 Field survey

Weir & Intake:
(1) 8 drilling bore-holes: 3 on each bank & 2 on the 2 small islets on both side of the axis – 15
m depth or thoroughly until the bed rock, (2) Lithological cuts of the 8 bore-holes which will
indicate the water level under the natural ground, (3) Undisturbed soil sampling of each nature
of soil met, (4) Pressure measuring tests in each bore-hole at the depth of two & four meters
under the level of the weir foundation.
Waterway:
(1) Altered soil sampling of a mix of red clay/clayish material (laterite) located close to the
canal, or in a known material career in the vicinity, (2) Soil bearing capacity analysis (or
Proctor tests in laboratory)
Forebay:
(1) 2 drilling bore-holes distant of 20 m on the main axis of the work - 10 m depth or
thoroughly until the bed rock, (2) Lithological cuts of the 2 bore-holes which will indicate the
water level under the natural ground, (3) Undisturbed soil sampling of each nature of soil met,
(4) Pressure measuring tests in each bore-holes at the depth of one & three meters under the
level of the forebay foundation.
Power house site:
(1) 2 drilling bore-holes distant of 15 m on the main axis of the building - 10 m depth or
thoroughly until the bed rock, (2) Lithological cuts of the 2 bore-holes which will indicate the
water level under the natural ground, (3) Undisturbed soil sampling of each nature of soil met,
(4) Pressure measuring tests in each bore-holes at the depth of one & three meters under the
level of the power house foundation.
4.2.1.3.2 Laboratory tests

They contain the classification tests of the soils or other materials (families) encountered near
each structure and some other specific tests.
(1) Soil classification: Name, nature and classification of the soils met, Water content W%,
Density, Granulometry & sedimentometry, Atterberg limits.
(2) Triaxial tests for cohesion and friction angle determination,
(3) Proctor tests (if necessary) for bearing capacity analysis.

4.2.2 Hydrology
4.2.2.1 Watershed context
The main part of the watershed of Gura river upstream Gura hydropower project is located in
the Aberdare Forest (Aberdare National Park).
The most elevated point of the watershed is about 3,900 m, while the level at the intake is
2,080 m and the level at the gauging station is 1,820 m.
The length of the river between the most elevated point and the intake is 25 km and the mean
slope 73 m/km.
The length of the river between the most elevated point and the gauging station is 40.5 km
and the mean slope 51.5 m/km.
Downstream the intake the slope of the river decreases quickly and it is only of 16.8 m/km
between the intake and the gauging station.
The catchment area at the intake is 135 km2 while it is 165 km2 at the gauging station.
Table 4.1: Physical characteristics of the catchment area
Items
Catchment area of Gura river at the intake km2 135
Extreme altitude of the area catchment in m NGF Max in m 3,900.00
Intake elevation m 2,080.00
Altitude at the gauging station m 1,820.00
Length of the river (between the most elevated point m 40,500
& the gauging station)
Average slope (between the most elevated point & % 5.15

the gauging station)
Average slope (between the intake & the gauging % 1.68
station)
4.2.2.2 Data available
4.2.2.2.1 Precipitations
There is no rain gauge inside the catchment but only in east limits:
- Gathuthi tea factory
- Gitugi tea factory
- Kiangondoro
For Gathuthi TF station monthly data are available since 1993 up to 2007 with missing values
in 2004 and 2005. The daily data are so available since July 2005.
For Gitugi TF station monthly data are available since 1999 up to 2003. The daily data are not
available.
For Kiandongoro station, monthly and daily data are available since 1999 up to 2005.
4.2.2.2.2 Flows
The flows measured at Gura gauging station, 15 km downstream the intake, are available
since 1978 up to 2007 but most of the years are missing (1997, 1998, 1999, 2002).

4.2.2.2.3 Data carried for hydrology analysis

Daily precipitation data at Gitugi are not available while daily precipitations at Gathuthi are
only available since July 2005. In so conditions daily data at these two rain stations cannot be
used for flood estimation. However they can be used to compare the monthly precipitation at
the three posts for their common period of observation.
Kiandongoro rain station is the only post which covers during some years (1999-2006) the
period of observations of flows data at the Gura gauging station. In so conditions it will be
carried out as representative of precipitations on the catchment in order to compare rainfalls
and runoffs on this one.
Gathuthi, Gitugi and Kiandangoro monthly and annual precipitations being compared for 5
years (1999-2003), the table below shows that mean annual precipitations in Gathuthi and
Gitugi stations are almost equal (1,185 and 1,147 mm for the 5 years) while the mean
precipitations in Kiandongoro are higher of 28 % (1,488 mm), due to the higher elevation of
the station (2,300 m).
Table 4.2: Annual rainfall (1999-2006)
YEAR 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Mean Mean
1999/2003 1993/2003
GITUGI 871 1011.3 1062.5 1827 1422.43 1651.9 1297,0 2234.1 1146.715
GATHUTHI 853.9 763.4 1299.5 1465.9 1542.5 1974.3 1185.04 1440.0
KIANDONGORO 1362.8 1094.8 1611.8 1674,0 1696.1 1463.1 1487.9
So the precipitations in Kiandongoro station may be considered as more representative of the

precipitations on the whole basin (elevation of 2 080 m at the intake and 3 900 m at the higher
point.
4.2.2.3 Monthly analysis

Monthly and annual values of precipitation at the 3 stations are indicated in the tables below.
Table 4.3: Total monthly & annual rainfall (Gathuthi & Gitugi 1999-2007)
Month 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Mean
1999/2003
Jan 7.5 8.5 166.1 33.5 68.2 24.8 55.1 56.76
Feb 10.7 10.1 19.3 33.8 38,0 26,0 75.3 22.38
March 51.9 62.5 182.2 86.5 65.1 134.3 66.3 89.64
April 116.1 124,0 403.2 456.3 313.8 413.5 168;9 282.68
May 188.3 130,0 86.1 120.4 395,0 186,0 183.5 183.96
June 15.4 38.1 80.4 35.8 43.5 44.5 154.4 42.64
July 60.5 41.9 33,0 11.9 24.2 76.3 85,0 119.5 34.3
August 75.1 59.2 45.6 75.4 101,0 66,0 75.4 172,0 71.26
September 31.7 27.4 10.5 49.1 42.3 60.6 118.5 36.9 32.2
October 80.3 68.8 26.5 223,0 235.5 152.2 163.5 126.82
November 136.6 118.7 193.4 219.1 136.8 76,0 417.3 160.92
December 79.8 74.2 53.2 121.1 79.1 4.2 285.5 81.48
Total 853.9 763.4 1299.5 1465.9 1542.5 1974.3 1185.04

Month 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Mean
1999/2003
Jan 22.7 16.5 22.7 28.4 31.7 24.40

Feb 18.2 22.0 17.2 75.2 54.5 37.40
March 19.2 15,0 27.9 122.2 356.6 108.18
April 131.0 126.0 142.0 465.0 64.73 185.70
May 158.0 147.6 183.5 196.5 175.0 172.12
June 37.0 16.0 32.0 42,0 56.4 36.68
July 39.0 44.0 37.0 48.2 36.9 41.02
August 75.1 82.1 73.0 84.5 100,0 82.94
September 49.0 62.1 56.0 64.0 54.5 57.12
October 68.1 84.9 76.1 327.1 277.5 166.74
November 164.2 176.7 198.5 152.2 168.2 171.96
December 89.5 218.4 196.6 221.7 46.4 154.52
Total 871.0 1011.3 1062.5 1827.0 1422.4 1297.0 2234.1 1238.80

Month 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Mean
1999/2007
Jan 30.8 24.4 176.4 63.5 53.7 66.4 44.5 69.76
Feb 46.9 46,0 66.7 39.2 21.2 92.7 72.3 54.7 44.00
March 160.0 66.8 149.8 113.6 107.6 135.2 99.4 119.56
April 194.3 98.3 434.6 389.4 343.1 416.2 291.94
May 169.3 212.2 146.6 121.9 426.8 11.4 366.4 215.36
June 21.1 46.5 121.9 33.7 36.1 58.7 44.2 51.86
July 94.4 40.0 71.0 55.6 23.9 57.1 107.1 56.98
August 73.1 75.8 62.9 55.7 127.9 45.6 64.2 79.08
September 47.2 46.7 12.7 80.8 58.8 89.4 54.2 49.24
October 140.5 154.9 58.7 220.1 281.3 169.1 116.9 171.10
November 250.2 172.6 216.4 283.8 174.6 233.8 123.9 219.52
December 135.0 110.6 94.1 216.7 41.1 87.5 37.8 119.50
Total 1362.8 1094.8 1611.8 1674,0 1696.1 1463.1 1487.90

Table 4.5: Total monthly & annual rainfall (Gathuthi 1993-2007)
Monthly and annual values of flows (in m3/s) and runoffs (in mm) at Gura gauging station are
indicated in the table below.
Table 4.6: Monthly & annual mean flows (Gura 1978-2007)

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YEAR
1978 4.24 5.00 11.25 16.71 10.09

1979 3.987 4.637 5.413 17.280 30.652 39.037 7.792 3.033 2.346 7.060 12.864 3.951 11.49
1980 2.495 2.291 2.456 7.489 11.697 5.294 3.188 2.382 1.595 2.359 8.352 4.935 4.55
1981 2.449 1.932 3.698 12.013 12.617 4.282 3.427 3.393 3.299 5.610 6.528 5.551 5.41
1982 3.319 1.939 1.478 9.509 19.997 6.445 3.549 2.895 2.775 8.519 12.101 9.504 6.86
1983 3.082 2.465 2.656 5.447 12.630 3.691 3.170 2.848 2.902 5.893 7.284 4.949 4.76
1984 3.309 1.794 1.393 3.586 3.382 1.391 1.730 1.597 1.559 4.757 5.483 4.184 2.85
1985 2.547 2.281 2.694 10.558 12.554 4.765 3.923 2.646 2.068 3.623 7.129 4.643 4.96
1986 2.231 1.329 1.450 8.118 12.580 6.224 3.320 2.132 2.155 4,000 7.213 5.138 4.67
1987 2.258 1.399 1.245 4.942 5.766 7.756 2.753 2.549 1.632 1.493 6.949 3.499 3.51
1988 2.803 1.609 2.131 12.619 9.745 4.013 2.891 2.664 3.975 4.678 6.029 4.277 4.79
1989 2.68 2.208 1.833 4.551 5.602 4.394 2.322 2.324 4.608 8.553 10.705 6.723 4.71
1990 6.264 2.466 5.300 13.001 8.601 3.689 2.647 2.451 2,000 2.683 6.062 4.548 4.98
1991 2.572 1.618 1.678 4.411 12.470 6.224 2.962 2.277 2.133 3.357 5.174 2.916 3.99
1992 1.658 1.232 1.237 6.443 9.218 3.987 2.765 2.608 2.538 6.652 9.512 6.977 4.58
1993 7.226 6.468 3.107 5.000 10.300 5.309 2.352 1.757 1.352 1.324 3.881 3.505 4.28
1994 1.925 2.002 2.224 8.146 14.230 5.775 3.086 3.071 2.065 4.143 19.188 5.720 5.96
1995 1.881 1.286 2.374 4.249 12.613 5.053 4.315 3.221 3.007 6.649 10.53 5.477 5.07
1996 2.680 2.878 2.421 4.216 6.812 7.423 3.427 2.429 2.754 2.574 4.111 3.695 3.78
2000 1.000 1.700 2.500 3.500 6.695 3.321 2.981 2.714 3.108 4.147 7.395 7,000 3.85
2001 7.919 5.057 3.738 16.681 13.793 6.586 4.203 4.138 3.746 1.800 11.833 5.000 7.02
2003 2.500 0.650 2.677 7.226 16.716 10.9633 3.641 3.164 3.5833 6.054 9.850 5.996 6.11
2004 3.029 2.475 2.964 8.920 6.286 3.970 2.900 2.812 2.876 5.019 13.896 6.227 5.11
2005 4.054 2.957 3.909 5.320 10.290 7.346 4.874 5.000 5.446 4.290 5.126 3.606 5.19
2006 2.670 1.889 3.822 10.046 12.316 4.820 3.612 4.553 3.283 4.483 12.356 7.519 5.96
2007 6.406 4.539 3.190 6.360
MEAN 3.189 2.357 2.683 8.053 11.565 6.740 3.410 2.861 2.784 4.572 8.731 5.231 5.189
ST.DEVIATION 1.682 1.318 1.157 3.989 5.564 7.139 1.158 0.794 1.002 2.031 3.663 1.545 1.668
This table shows that the mean annual runoff is almost 1,000 mm with small variability
(standard deviation = 319 mm and coefficient of variation = 0.320), except for the year 1979

with a very high runoff of 2 199 mm. The cumulative runoffs of May and June 1979 reached
up to 1,111 mm. As the precipitation data are missing for this period, this exceptional value of
runoff cannot be controlled. The highest runoffs are observed in April, May, June, November
and December.
Table 4.7: Monthly & annual mean runoffs (Gura)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YEAR
MEAN 51.80 34.60 43.60 126.50 187.70 105.90 55.30 46.40 43.70 74.20 137.20 84.90 991.80

2003 53.7 21.2 107.6 343.1 426.8 36.1 23.9 127.9 58.8 281.3 174.6 41.1 1,696.1
2004 66.4 92.7 135.2 416.2 114.0 58.7 57.1 45.6 89.4 169.1 233.8 87.5 1,565.7
2005 70.0 72.3 99.4 350.0 366.4 44.2 107.1 64.2 54.2 116.9 123.9 37.8 1,506.4
Mean 2003/2005 63.40 62.10 114.10 369.80 302.40 46.30 62.70 79.20 67.50 189.10 177.40 55.50 1,589.40
Table 4.9: Monthly & annual mean runoffs (Gura 2003-2005)

2003 40.58 9.53 43.46 113.52 271.34 172.22 59.11 51.36 56.29 98.28 154.73 97.34 1,167.81
2004 49.16 36.28 48.12 140.12 102.04 62.36 47.07 45.66 45.18 81.47 218.30 101.08 976.91
2005 65.82 43.35 63.46 83.57 167.04 115.40 79.12 81.16 85.56 69.64 80.53 58.54 993.23
Mean 2003/2005 51.90 29.70 51.70 112.40 180.10 116.70 61.80 59.40 62.30 83.10 151.20 85.70 1,046.00
The precipitations at Kiandongoro station and the runoffs at the Gura gauging station can be
only compared for the period 2003-2005 (see tables 8 and 9 above). These tables show that
the mean coefficient of runoff is almost of 2/3 (0.658) indicating a high level of surface
runoff.

Figure 4.1: Monthly rainfall and runoffs (Gura)
Figure 1 Monthly precipitations and runoffs
450.0
400.0
350.0
300.0
Precipitation- 250.0
Runoff (mm) 200.0 Precipitation
150.0 Runoff
100.0
50.0
0.0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Month
The figure above shows a delayed flow for some months, for example June and December
2003, June 2005, due to the high values of precipitation the precedent months.
4.2.2.4 Daily analysis
4.2.2.4.1 Daily precipitations

Table 4.10: Daily maximum rainfall (Kiandongoro 1999-2006)
Month 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Mean
1999/2005
January 8.5 15.6 59.0 26.5 15.8 16.0 15.8 22.45
February 17.5 21.0 22.9 16.0 12.0 15.6 19.6 15.0 17.45
March 35.7 17.4 40.0 41.0 21.8 30.0 24.7 30.08
April 35.8 20.0 63.6 59.5 52.0 56.2 47.85
May 27.0 49.2 16.4 16.5 45.5 36.5 53.3 34.91
June 4.6 10.5 31.0 7.0 15.3 21.5 10.0 14.27
July 20.5 7.8 26.5 16.0 7.6 25.5 31.8 19.38
August 12.6 21.4 23.0 7.6 22.6 11.5 8.0 15.24
September 14.8 10.4 3.4 24.5 20.0 47.1 10.2 18.62
October 39.4 70.0 14.4 52.7 41.0 17.8 27.4 37.52
November 77.4 43.0 41.1 53.1 30.0 36.7 20.0 43.04
December 25.0 22.6 22.3 30.5 20.4 16.2 16.2 21.88
Mean 26.6 25.7 30.3 29.2 25.3 27.6 22.1
Maximum 77.4 70.0 63.6 59.5 52.0 56.2 53.3 Mean Annual Daily Max 61.70
Std Dev Annual Daily Max 9.30
The period of available data is very short (1999-2005).

The table above shows daily maximum precipitation very slightly variable from one year to
another. The daily maximum of the year are contained between 52 mm and 77 mm with a
mean value of 61.7 mm. The standard deviation, which measures the annual variability, is
only of 9.3 mm (coefficient of variation = 0.150).

It is very difficult to fit a law of probability of the maximum values of daily precipitation with
so few years of observation. The 10 more important values are upper than 50 mm and the 18
more important are upper than 40 mm and fitting a Gumbel law of probability gives the same
results if the sample of data is built up with the 7 maximum annual values or with the 7
absolute maximum values.
The Gumbel law may be expressed by:
Pt = s/sn .yt + m – s/sn .(sn- yn)

where :
Pt is the daily precipitation of return period t

the mean of the sample of maximum daily values
s is the standard deviation of the sample of maximum daily values
yn is the mean value of reduced variates of Gumbel for 7 years
sn is the standard deviation of reduced variates of Gumbel for 7 years
For Kiandongoro case they take the following values:
m = 61.7
s = 9.30
yn = 0.4773
sn = 0.9449
Pt = 9.84 yt + 57.1
The slope of the law (Gradex) in a reduced Gumbel graphic is 9.84 mm
• For a return period of 10 years, y10 = 2.250 and P10 = 79.2 mm
• For a return period of 100 years, y100 = 4.600 and P100 = 102.4 mm
4.2.2.4.2 Daily flows

The maximum daily flows at Gura gauging station are indicated, by month and by year, in the
table 4.11 below.

Table 4.11: Monthly and annual maximum daily flows (Gura)
Like the mean monthly flows, the maximum daily flows are observed in April, May, June,
October, November and December, the most important values being observed in April and
May.
The coefficient of variation of the maximum values of the year (Cv = 27.50/9.962 = 0.362) is
higher than the same coefficient for precipitation values (Cv = 0.150).
It will be noted that, converted in runoff, the maximum value observed (45 m3/s) corresponds
to 23.5 mm per day. The mean value of the sample (27.5 m3/s) corresponds to 14.4 mm and
the standard deviation (9.96 m3/s) to 5.22 mm.
The 4 more important values are contained between 41, 6 and 45 m3/s, the 7 more important
values are higher than 35 m3/s and the 10 more important values are higher than 30 m3/s.
These near first maximum values do not denote a good exponential fitting (Gumbel law).
However, the fitting of the maximum values of runoff by a Gumbel law gives the following
results:
• m = 23.5 mm
• s = 5.22 mm
• yn = 0.5332
• sn = 1.1215

n being the number of value in the sample (n = 27)

The probability law of the runoffs (expressed in mm/day) is:
Rt = 4.65 yt + 20.8
The slope of the law in a reduced Gumbel graphic (4.65 mm) is approximately half of the
slope (Gradex) of the daily precipitation (9.84 mm)
• For a return period of 10 years, R10 = 31.3 mm
Because of the weak value of the slope, the runoffs do not increase quickly with the return
period.
So it can be applied the Gradex method, which considers that after a return period (20 years
for example in this case where 27 years of data are available), all supplement of precipitation
can be transformed in an equal supplement of runoff (total saturation of the soils for T = 20
years).
So, beyond the period of return of 20 years the law of runoffs becomes:
Rt = 9.84 yt + 5.4
For a return period of 30 years, R30 = 38.7 mm
For a return period of 100 years, R100 = 50.7 mm
The daily maximum runoffs above may be transformed in mean daily discharges :
For a return period of 30 years, 24Q30 = 73.9 m3/s
For a return period of 100 years, 24Q100 = 96.8 m3/s
The runoff coefficients (Precipitation/Runoff) are:
T = 10 years Cr = 31.3/79.2 = 0.395
T = 100 years Cr = 50.7/102, 4 = 0.495
It will be noted that daily coefficients of runoff are weak compared with the annual
coefficients. This can be explained by the delayed runoffs after rainy events of several days.
The daily runoff deficits (Precipitation-Runoff) are:
T = 10 years Dr = 79.2 – 31.3 = 47.9 mm
T = 100 years Dr = 102.4 – 50.7 = 51.7 mm
Some rainy events can be analysed in order to compare them with the runoffs resulting.
The coefficient of runoff becomes high when rain duration becomes long and occurs after
another event of several days with rain.
The observation of the discharges data show that the runoffs persist some days after the
precipitations at their origin. This is due to the components of the watershed (geology and
high level of forest cover which allow a surface detention of water released during a long time
after). This phenomenon will allow having a good attenuation of the peak flows.
Note: Some missing values of flow, initially bridged by interpolation with values before or
after, seem to correspond to flood values. The consequences can be a sub-estimation of
maximum values and monthly values.

Table 4.12: Precipitations and Runoffs on Gura bassin
Table 12 Precipitations and Runoffs on Gura basin
Events Precipitations (mm) Runoffs (mm) Coefficient

of Runoff
Duration Amount Duration Amount
Mar. 2001 23 to 31/03 90.5 23 to 31/03 20.8 0.230
Apr. 2001 04 to 10/04 85.2 04 to 12/04 48.5 0.569

14 to 18/04 123.5 14 to 20/04 35.7 0.289
20 to 27/04 162.3 20 to 29/04 141.9 0.874
Nov. 2001 08 to 17/11 126.9 08 to 19/11 28.3 0.223
Apr. 2003 14 to 30/04 343.1 14/04 to 03/05 127.1 0.370
May. 2003 07 to 17/05 210.0 07 to 21/05 128.3 0.611
Oct. 2003 21 to 31/10 229.0 21 to 03/11 81.7 0.357
Nov. 2003 13 to 15/11 36.6 13 to 17/11 22.3 0.609

19 to 29/11 122.2 19/11 to 02/12 65.2 0.534
Nov. 2004 2 to 15/11 184.5 02 to 18/11 147.4 0.799
May. 2005 21 to 31/05 226.5 21/05 to 03/06 86.4 0.381
4.2.2.5 Peak values of flood

Not any hydrogram is available to compare mean daily values of flow and peak values.
However, consecutive values of precipitations and flows show that flood sequences are long
and with low variation of flow one day to another.
In so conditions it will be considered that the ratio “Peak Flow”/ “Mean Daily Flow” is about
2.00. So, the peak flows at the Gura gauging station are:
• For a return period of 30 years, pQ30 = 148 m3/s
The peak flows at the intake (S1 = 135 km2) and at the gauging station (S0 = 165 km2) are
linked by the relation:
pQ1 = pQ0 . (S1/S0)0.,8
So, at the intake, the peak flows are:
The flood project at the intake (T = 100 years) can be considered as 165 m3/s, so a specific
flow of 1.22 m3/s/km2.
4.2.2.6 Empirical frequency curves

As stated, the dependable flow analysis is one of the most important parts of the study as this
will be the basis for determining the power generation potential and shall, likewise, be used as
basis for the design of the hydraulic structures.

the daily outputs observed at Gura intake are directly deduced from the flows observed at the
Gura gauging station N°4AD04 (intercepted watershed: 165 km2) by the application of a
coefficient equal to 0.8182 correspondent to the catchment area ratio (=135/165)
In accordance with the hydrology study:
• the median year at Gura intake is well represented by the year 1995,
• the dry years T=5 & T=10 are represented respectively by the years 1991 & 1996,
• the rainy years T=5 & T=10 are represented respectively by the years 1982 & 1994.
The EFC curves for Gura river are given hereafter for the median year, for dry five- and ten-
years and in wet five- and ten-years.
These curves indicate a very regular hydrology having a guaranteed flow (seen all the time)
ranging between 740 l/s and 1.28 m3/s.
4.2.2.6.1 Median year

Figure 4.2: Empirical Frequency Curve (EFC) for Gura – Median year
The guaranteed flow (100%) is equal to 740 l/s
4.2.2.6.2 Dry year T = 5 & T = 10

Figure 4.3: Empirical Frequency Curve (EFC) for Gura – Dry year
The two empirical frequency curves are crossing, so for the low values of flow, the
probability values for T=5 years will be chosen on the 10 years curve and vice versa.
The guaranteed flows are respectively equal to 1.03 m3/s and 1.28 m3/s.
4.2.2.6.3 Rainy years T = 5 & T = 10

Figure 4.4: Empirical Frequency Curve (EFC) for Gura – Rainy year
The guaranteed flows are respectively equal at 950 l/s and 1.03 m3/s.

It will be noted that the values vary hardly, between dry, median or rainy years, only for high
values (low guarantee). At the contrary the low values (high guarantee) are very similar from
type of year to another.
4.2.3 Topography
Standard topographic maps scaled 1 / 50 0008 with contour lines covering the hydrographical
network, roads, built-up areas, lands & administrative boundaries, and the whole watershed
area of Gura river have been collected for the study: Nyeri 120/4-Kipipiri 120/3-Kirangop
134/1 ad Kangema 134/2.
Based on these data, a topographic survey of the Gura small hydro scheme was launched end
of November 2007 during the Consultant’s mission. The area surveyed was along the future
canal from the weir location to the power house area and close to the main structures of the
project.
This topographic survey consisted mainly in two specific components:
General topographical mapping of a 200 m width corridor of land centred along the
waterway between the weir / intake and the power house building & the outlet channel
(the requirements include 1 m equidistance between level lines; grid co-ordinates in UTM
zone 37; density of the points > than 20/ha)
Detailed mapping around the weir & the power house site (the requirements include 1 m
equidistance between level lines; grid coordinates in UTM zone 37; density of the levelled
points > than 500/ha; bathymetry under the water level of Gura river)
The following topometric bases were used for the establishment of these maps: 134 U 117
(Muyange 2)
These general and detailed maps have been used for the project design described hereunder.
4.3 Power scheme of development

The guiding philosophy behind the preparation of the scheme of development (SOD) is to
maximise the power generation potential of Gura river, taking simultaneously into account the
river potential and the demand forecast for Gathuthy, Gitugi, Iria Ini and Chinga Tea
Factories. This resulted in a maximum head development for Gura river.
At the stage of feasibility study (FS) the location and routing of the structures such as the
weir, the settling basin, the waterway, the forebay, penstock and power house were
preliminary based on the 1/50 000 NYERI 120/4 & KANGEMA 134/2 maps with field
verification and survey using a hand help GPS for the location of the structures and a total
station survey instrument for the detailed topographic survey from the weir to the power
house plant. Hence, since a total station survey instrument was used for the elevations and
contour surveys, the resulting head that can be developed from the proposed scheme is
accurately determined. Furthermore, thanks to a quite well-researched hydrology, a complete
study (water contributions, flood flow) could be led. Hence with accurately determined head
and discharge, the resulting power capacity can reasonably be estimated with high level of
confidence.
8
Series Y731 Kenya Government 1975 – Printed for Directorate of Overseas Survey –
Ministry of Overseas Development
The scheme of development (SOD) for small hydropower generation site on Gura river is
shown, as initially planned, in the maps 4.1 and 4.2 hereunder. All detailed maps and
drawings for Gura SHP site (GUR-N°1 to GUR-N°10) are given in annex, including sketch of
the alternative (GUR-N°3), strip topographic layout (GUR-N°4 to GUR-N°6) and detailed
views of hydraulic structures (GUR-N°7 to GUR-N°10).

Map 4.1: Location of Gura SHP site (GUR-N°1)

Map 4.2: General development plan (GUR-N°2)

The table which follows presents the location of the main works for the suggested scheme.
Table 4.13: Location of the main works (Gura)
4.4 Optimization designed plant capacity / Unit arrangement

4.4.1 SHP sizing optimisation
4.4.1.1 Introduction on the approach
In the previous paragraphs of section 4 of this study, we had a look at the topography, the
geology and the hydrology of the Gura site where the projects is to take place. From these
natural conditions we identified the energetic potential of the river that the project could yield.
An additional constraint to consider when designing a Small Hydro Power project is the
demand. Indeed, there is only so much energy that can be absorbed by the KTDA tea factories
load, while the excess power will be sold to the grid. As the PPA tariff with KPLC will be
different from the actual value of the power directly consumed by the tea factories, the first
step will be to assess share of energy placed on the tea factories local network and the share of
excess energy sold to KPLC.
Therefore, there is a need to identify the optimal size of the project where one maximises the
total energy sold to the Tea factories and to KPLC over the SHP lifetime, without over
investing.
Our approach to select the optimal SHP project size is to compute the Internal Rate of Return
(IRR) of the project, for various Small Hydro Power size and related preliminary costing. The
hypothesis used to compute the IRR are the same as the one used in the financial model which
will be presented in the Chapter 6 on the financial analysis.
The internal rate of return (IRR) of the project, in percent: IRR is the value of t for which the
Net Present Value (NPV) of the project equals zero.
CFn
NPV = ∑1
N
(1 + t ) n
with:
NPV = Net Present Value of the project
CF = project cash flows over the project’s lifetime
N = number of years of calculation = project’s lifetime

t = discount rate of the project.

As we consider the project IRR, all benefits should be considered. The SHP project comes as
a substitution of the diesel and grid power bills. Thus, the cash flows generated by the project
are measured in terms of savings realized each year by displacing diesel or grid power
consumption with SHP production. Thus, the cash flows are computed as follows:
CFn = + RB − NB +PPA
CFn = Project cash flow in year n
RB = Reference electricity bill 9
NB = New electricity bill for Project
PPA = Revenues generated via PPA to KPLC
Note: RB, NB, PPA are all in year n
RB = Dp × Ed + Gp × (E − Ed ) NB = ( E − Ep ) × Gp
Dp = Price of Electricity generated from diesel
Ed = Energy Demand satisfied by diesel
E = Energy Demand from the tea factories
Gp = Power price from grid
Ep = Energy placed
For each SHP sizing, the tool used for the estimation of the generation potential is presented
hereafter.
4.4.1.2 Step 1: Assessment of generation potential

For renewable energies in general, and hydroelectricity in particular, the International
RETScreen model10, in self service data-processing is the world reference in term of
dimensioning and decision-making aid.
This model evaluates the energy production from Small Hydro Power plants, isolated, or
connected to a local / interconnected grid.
This tool is a standardized and integrated software for energy project analysis. It evaluates the
power of the installations and the expected energy production.
It is developed as an individual Microsoft Excel file, composed of a number of worksheets,
linked together. The three first sheets are entitled successively “energy model”, “hydrology
and load” and “equipment data”.
Tab n°1 “energy model” gives the sites characteristics, the parameters of the system and
the energy annual production. It fixes the classified load curves and the capacity.
9
As the tea factories will keep their grid connections, therefore the reference electricity bill
only considers the variable costs of grid power.
10
Retscreen model is available on-line at www.retscreen.net
Tab 2 “hydrology and load” represents the hydrological analysis of the site in a method
of analysis defined by the user (the classified load curves are defined there - using
correlation method - by the user on the basis of series validated here of the hydrological
station N°84227 named Chambura at Kichwamba)
The type of installation suggested (here, run of the river), the residual flow and the
percentage of availability of the guaranteed flow must, in addition, be provided.
Tab n° 3 “equipment data” characterises the turbines (Type, number and operation). It
proposes a curve of output according to the considered equipment with a possible
adjustment.
Based on the Gura hydrological characteristic and the proposed equipment for the power
station, the RETScreen model estimates the annual quantity of renewable energy (in kWh)
being produced.
This value is computed, in each case, based on the flow available (from the Flow Duration
Curve), the turbine efficiency, the nominal installed capacity, the residual flow11, the head,
and the probable losses from hydraulic and electric origin.
The yearly energy generated by the SHP (yearly output) is defined by the model as the area
under the curve P of the classified power, by making a linear interpolation between the
computed values of the produced powers (12). The following assumptions of energy losses and
annual breaks/stops are taken into account in the evaluation of the energy produced:
• Maximum hydraulic losses: 5%
• Generator efficiency: 94%
• Electric losses: Transformer 1% - Parasitic electricity losses 2% → Total 3%
• Annual downtime losses: 5%
For Gura, the yearly output has been estimated for various design discharges, corresponding
to different installed capacities:
Table 4.14: Estimated yearly output vs. discharge (Gura)
Flow (m3/s) 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5
Net Head (m) 148,4 148,6 148,9 149,2 149,2 149,3 148,6
Installed capacity (kW) 1 682 2 256 2 833 3 412 3 993 4 576 5 160
Energy utilisation ratio (%) 84 77 72 68 64 60 56
Yearly output (GWh/year) 12,337 15,244 17,866 20,246 22,338 24,03 25,49
4.4.1.3 Step 2: preliminary potential SHP sizing

The SHP installed capacity depends on the design discharge. For each design discharge, one
calculates the characteristics of the key components of the SHP scheme:
• dam
• canal
• spillway
11
Which is equal to 10% of the mean annual flow
12
The Flow Duration Curve represents an annual cycle. Each interval of 5% of this curve
corresponds to 5% of 8760 hours (a number of hours in one year) that is to say 438 h. The
hydrological cycle is thus well represented.
• net head
• penstock
• installed equipment
The model used is an Excel spreadsheet developed by the Consultant.

Table 4.15: Preliminary Gura SHP sizing vs. design discharge

4.4.1.4 Step 3: preliminary costing for various SHP sizing

For each of the potential SHP sizing, a preliminary costing has been carried out, based on
Budget Unit price and preliminary estimated of quantities.
Results are provided in the table on the following page.

Table 4.16: Preliminary costing for various SHP sizing

GURA SHP Q (m3/s) 1,5 2,00 2,5 3,00 3,5 4,00 4,5
Kshs/US$ 70
N° Work items Units Unit Price Qty. Total Total (US$) Qty. Total Total (US$) Qty. Total Total (US$) Qty. Total Total (US$) Qty. Total Total (US$) Qty. Total Total (US$) Qty. Total Total (US$)
Kshs Kshs Kshs Kshs Kshs Kshs Kshs Kshs
I. CIVIL WORKS
1 General items
1.1 Land clearing ha 50 000 5 250 000 5 250 000 5 250 000 5 250 000 5 250 000 5 250 000 5 250 000
1.2 Mobilisation-demobilisation LS 7 500 000 1 7 500 000 1 7 500 000 1 7 500 000 1 7 500 000 1 7 500 000 1 7 500 000 1 7 500 000
1.3 Site office m² 50 0 50 included 50 included 50 included 50 included 50 included 50 included
1.4 Operator house m² 20 000 300 6 000 000 300 6 000 000 300 6 000 000 300 6 000 000 300 6 000 000 300 6 000 000 300 6 000 000
Total 1 13 750 000 196 429 13 750 000 196 429 13 750 000 196 429 13 750 000 196 429 13 750 000 196 429 13 750 000 196 429 13 750 000 196 429
2 Road works
2.1 New permanent gravelled road width 5 m km 11 250 000 0,300 3 375 000 0,300 3 375 000 0,300 3 375 000 0,300 3 375 000 0,300 3 375 000 0,300 3 375 000 0,300 3 375 000
2.2 Rehabilitation of existing road km 3 000 000 5 15 000 000 5 15 000 000 5 15 000 000 5 15 000 000 5 15 000 000 5 15 000 000 5 15 000 000
2.3 Bridge LS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total 2 18 375 000 262 500 18 375 000 262 500 18 375 000 262 500 18 375 000 262 500 18 375 000 262 500 18 375 000 262 500 18 375 000 262 500
3 Weir works and intake
3.1 Temporary works - cofferdam (sand bags) m3 2 000 700 1 400 000 700 1 400 000 700 1 400 000 700 1 400 000 700 1 400 000 700 1 400 000 700 1 400 000
3.2 Excavation in soil m3 300 6 500 1 950 000 6 500 1 950 000 6 500 1 950 000 6 500 1 950 000 6 500 1 950 000 6 500 1 950 000 6 500 1 950 000
3.3 Excavation in rock m3 2 000 600 1 200 000 600 1 200 000 600 1 200 000 600 1 200 000 600 1 200 000 600 1 200 000 600 1 200 000
3.4 Jet grouting curtain m² 3 200 500 1 600 000 500 1 600 000 500 1 600 000 500 1 600 000 500 1 600 000 500 1 600 000 500 1 600 000
3.5 Mass concrete m3 9 000 2 000 18 000 000 2 000 18 000 000 2 000 18 000 000 2 000 18 000 000 2 000 18 000 000 2 000 18 000 000 2 000 18 000 000
3.6 Reinforced concrete 0 0 0 0 0 0
3.6 A Weir surface reinforced concrete m3 9 000 600 5 400 000 600 5 400 000 600 5 400 000 600 5 400 000 600 5 400 000 600 5 400 000 600 5 400 000
3.6 B Weir structure reinforced concrete(Wings) m3 12 000 650 7 800 000 650 7 800 000 650 7 800 000 650 7 800 000 650 7 800 000 650 7 800 000 650 7 800 000
3.6 C Bridge reinforced concrete (piers + deck) m3 12 000 150 1 800 000 150 1 800 000 150 1 800 000 150 1 800 000 150 1 800 000 150 1 800 000 150 1 800 000
3,7 Rip-Rap (stone pitching) m² 600 450 270 000 450 270 000 450 270 000 450 270 000 450 270 000 450 270 000 450 270 000
Total 3 39 420 000 563 143 39 420 000 563 143 39 420 000 563 143 39 420 000 563 143 39 420 000 563 143 39 420 000 563 143 39 420 000 563 143
4 Canal
4.1 Cut in soil for canal m3 300 13 483 4 045 007 17 514 5 254 231 21 497 6 449 121 25 446 7 633 828 29 369 8 810 821 33 272 9 981 705 37 159 11 147 596
4.2 Cut in soil for base for chanel + road m3 300 250 922 75 276 747 265 329 79 598 577 278 354 83 506 137 290 398 87 119 427 301 699 90 509 734 312 412 93 723 505 322 643 96 793 003
4.3 Gravelled road width 4 m km 5 000 000 6,700 33 500 000 6,700 33 500 000 6,700 33 500 000 6,700 33 500 000 6,700 33 500 000 6,700 33 500 000 6,700 33 500 000
4.4 Slab reinforce concrete m3 12 000 1 523 18 281 564 1 697 20 363 456 1 850 22 197 640 1 988 23 855 870 2 115 25 380 769 2 233 26 800 110 2 344 28 133 185
4.5 Massonery (walls) m² 1 000 15 004 15 004 407 17 326 17 325 597 19 371 19 370 606 21 219 21 219 436 22 920 22 919 610 24 502 24 502 094 25 988 25 988 395
Total 4 146 107 725 2 087 253 156 041 861 2 229 169 165 023 504 2 357 479 173 328 561 2 476 122 181 120 933 2 587 442 188 507 414 2 692 963 195 562 179 2 793 745
5 Forebay
5,1 Excavation in soil m 3 300 6 900 2 070 000 6 900 2 070 000 6 900 2 070 000 9 000 2 700 000 9 000 2 700 000 10 000 3 000 000 10 000 3 000 000
5,2 Excavation in rock m3 2 000 720 1 440 000 720 1 440 000 720 1 440 000 850 1 700 000 850 1 700 000 1 000 2 000 000 1 000 2 000 000
5,3 Earthworks : fill m3 300 690 207 000 690 207 000 690 207 000 850 255 000 850 255 000 1 000 300 000 1 000 300 000
5,4 Mass concrete m3 9 000 400 3 600 000 400 3 600 000 400 3 600 000 500 4 500 000 500 4 500 000 600 5 400 000 600 5 400 000
5,5 Hard core filling m3 1 500 600 900 000 600 900 000 600 900 000 700 1 050 000 700 1 050 000 1 000 1 500 000 1 000 1 500 000
5,6 Lining 1000 gauge m² 100 2 000 200 000 2 000 200 000 2 000 200 000 2 500 250 000 2 500 250 000 3 000 300 000 3 000 300 000
5,7 Rip-Rap (stone pitching) m² 600 690 414 000 690 414 000 690 414 000 750 450 000 750 450 000 1 000 600 000 1 000 600 000
5,8 Reinforced concrete m3 12 000 60 720 000 60 720 000 60 720 000 70 840 000 70 840 000 80 960 000 80 960 000
5,9 Flush valves and accessories LS 1 000 000 1 800 000 1 800 000 1 800 000 1 900 000 1 900 000 1 1 000 000 1 1 000 000
Total 5 10 351 000 147 871 10 351 000 147 871 10 351 000 147 871 12 645 000 180 643 12 645 000 180 643 15 060 000 215 143 15 060 000 215 143
6 Penstock
6,1 Excavation in cut m3 300 1 540 462 000 1 650 495 000 1 760 528 000 1 870 561 000 1 958 587 400 2 046 613 800 2 134 640 200
6,2 Reinforced concrete pipe support m3 9 000 30 270 000 40 360 000 50 450 000 60 540 000 70 630 000 80 720 000 90 810 000
6,3 Penstock kg 200 70 336 14 067 200 75 360 15 072 000 80 384 16 076 800 85 408 17 081 600 89 427 17 885 440 93 446 18 689 280 97 466 19 493 120
6,4 Back fill m3 300 1 232 369 600 1 320 396 000 1 408 422 400 1 496 448 800 1 566 469 920 1 637 491 040 1 707 512 160
Total 6 15 168 800 216 697 16 323 000 233 186 17 477 200 249 674 18 631 400 266 163 19 572 760 279 611 20 514 120 293 059 21 455 480 306 507
7 Power house + Tail race
7,1 Excavation in soil 300 1 800 540 000 2 200 660 000 2 600 780 000 3 000 900 000 4 000 1 200 000 5 000 1 500 000 6 100 1 830 000
7,2 Excavation in rock m3 2 000 280 560 000 400 800 000 550 1 100 000 700 1 400 000 950 1 900 000 1 200 2 400 000 1 460 2 920 000
7,3 Earthworks : fill m3 300 1 250 375 000 1 400 420 000 1 550 465 000 1 700 510 000 2 350 705 000 3 000 900 000 4 800 1 440 000
7,4 Mass concrete m3 9 000 130 1 170 000 170 1 530 000 210 1 890 000 250 2 250 000 300 2 700 000 350 3 150 000 445 4 005 000
7,5 Reinforced concrete m3 12 000 95 1 140 000 130 1 560 000 165 1 980 000 200 2 400 000 265 3 180 000 330 3 960 000 535 6 420 000
7,6 Metalworks (roof, doors,….) m3 150 2 350 352 500 2 700 405 000 3 100 465 000 3 500 525 000 4 500 675 000 5 500 825 000 8 550 1 282 500
7,7 Superstructure building kg 20 000 210 4 200 000 300 6 000 000 400 8 000 000 500 10 000 000 650 13 000 000 800 16 000 000 995 19 900 000
7,8 Parking area cut + fill m² 600 1 070 642 000 1 400 840 000 1 700 1 020 000 2 000 1 200 000 2 750 1 650 000 3 500 2 100 000 4 590 2 754 000
7,9 Parking area gravel fill + compaction m3 1 200 410 492 000 500 600 000 600 720 000 700 840 000 850 1 020 000 1 000 1 200 000 1 820 2 184 000
7,1 Rip-Rap (stone pitching) m² 600 440 264 000 700 420 000 900 540 000 1 100 660 000 1 550 930 000 2 000 1 200 000 2 950 1 770 000
Total 7 m² 9 735 500 139 079 13 235 000 189 071 16 960 000 242 286 20 685 000 295 500 26 960 000 385 143 33 235 000 474 786 44 505 500 635 793
8 Metal works
8,1 Trash rack
8,2 Trash rack rake LS
8,3 Hand rails and miscellaneaous LS
Total 8 LS 4 000 000 57 143 4 000 000 57 143 4 000 000 57 143 4 500 000 64 286 4 500 000 64 286 5 000 000 71 429 5 000 000 71 429
Total Civil Works 3 670 115 3 878 512 4 076 524 4 304 785 4 519 196 4 769 450 5 044 688
II. ELECTRO MECHANICAL WORKS US$/KSH Unit Price Total Kshs Total US$ Total Kshs Total US$ Total Kshs Total US$ Total Kshs Total US$ 100 Total Kshs Total US$ 100 Total Kshs Total US$ 100 Total Kshs Total US$
1 Generating equipment LS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 Electrical / Switchyard LS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
3 Supporting equipment LS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
4 Gates LS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Power kW 60 000 1 682 48 273 400 2 256 63 957 600 2 833 79 324 000 3 412 94 341 800 3 993 109 008 900 4 576 121 721 600 5 160 136 740 000
Total E.M. works 0 48 273 400 689 620 63 957 600 913 680 79 324 000 1 133 200 94 341 800 1 347 740 109 008 900 1 557 270 121 721 600 1 738 880 136 740 000 1 953 429
11 KV LINE 900 000 30 27 000 000 385 714 30 27 000 000 385 714 30 27 000 000 385 714 30,00 27 000 000 385 714 0,00 0 0 0,00 0 0 0,00
33 KV LINE km 1 500 000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30,00 45 000 000 642 857 30,00 45 000 000 642 857 30,00 45 000 000 642 857
III. TOTAL DIRECT COST US$ 4 745 449 5 177 907 5 595 439 6 038 239 6 719 323 7 151 188 7 640 974
Contengencies 5% 237 272 258 895 279 772 301 912 335 966 357 559 382 049
Overhead costs 15% 711 817 776 686 839 316 905 736 1 007 898 1 072 678 1 146 146
Total 5 694 539 6 213 488 6 714 526 7 245 887 8 063 187 8 581 425 9 169 168

4.4.1.5 Step 4: energy placement model

The first input of the energy placement model is the load forecast. It provides important
characteristics of the demand for each year: the total energy consumption of the 4 tea factories
of that year, the peak load and the load factor of the demand. From this load factor and energy
consumption, the model builds a load duration curve, based on typical load duration curves
depending on the load factor, as shown in the graph below. Based on the data collected, the
Load factor is estimated to be 44%.
Figure 4.5: Demand and Load Duration Curve
Load duration curve model for
Four (4) Tea factories
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
The second input into the model is the SHP characteristics, for various installed capacity. The
installed capacity and potential energy production (corresponding to the river potential) are
computed in. The model identifies a maximum placement curve for each year of operation,
which is the minimum between the SHP installed capacity and the demand load duration
curve: at any given time, there is not necessarily enough water to produce the energy that
could be placed. The model therefore includes a mismatch factor which is a way to represent
the lack of correlation between hydrology and the power demand from the tea factories, and
the impact on energy placement. The energy placement curve is therefore corrected with the
mismatch factor in order to obtain the final energy placement value.
The graph below illustrates the energy produced by the Gura SHP, placed on the local grid of
the four (4) tea factories. On this scenario, the Gura installed capacity is 2.26 MW with an
annual output of 15.24 GWh, and the four tea factories annual demand is 8.64 GWh. From
this simulation, only 89.4% would be supplied by the Gura SHP and the four tea factories
would consume only 50.7% of the yearly output.

Figure 4.6: Simulation of the placement of energy – SHP supply to 4 tea factories
kW
Simulation of the Placement of Energy
Gura SHP supply to the 4 Tea factories
2 500
2 000
Four (4) Tea factories
Load duratrion curve
1 500
Energy placement from
the SHP
1 000
500
0
0% 21% 42% 63% 83%
We have computed the total energy placement for the various Gura SHP sizing assessed in the
previous steps. The goal of step 4 is to work out the energy placement on the 4 tea factories
local grid for each year and thus find out the excess power which will be sold to KPLC, over
the lifetime of the project.
4.4.1.6 Step 5: Ranking of the SHP sizing scenario and selection

As indicated earlier, our approach to select the optimal SHP project size is to compute the
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the project, for various Small Hydro Power size and related
preliminary costing. The financial model to compute the IRR is the same as the model which
will be presented in the Chapter 6 on the financial analysis.
The key parameters characterized of the potential sizing scenario for the Gura site are
synthesized in the following table.
Table 4.17: Estimated IRR vs. discharge (Gura)
Flow (m3/s) 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4
Installed capacity (kW) 1,682 2,256 2,833 3,412 3,993 4,576
Energy utilisation ratio
84 77 72 68 64 60
(%)
Yearly output
12.337 15.244 17.866 20.246 22.338 24.03
(GWh/year)
Estimated Invest. (k$) 5 695 6 213 6 715 7 246 8 063 8 581
IRR (%) 16.8% 17.5% 18.0% 18.0% 17.1% 16.9%
From these results, it appears that the IRR grows as long as the installed capacity is below
2,833 kW (corresponding to 2.5 m3/s design discharge), then becomes constant and starts
decreasing when the installed capacity grows.
For a 2.5 m3/s design discharge, an estimated 92% of the four tea factories demand would be
supplied from the Gura SHP and only 87% in the case of a 1.5 m3/s design discharge.

From the above, we will select the 2.50 m3/s flow discharge, corresponding to an installed
capacity of 2,833 kW, for the full detailed feasibility study.
4.4.2 Unit arrangement

It is often the case that two smaller turbines will provide a better optimised solution than a
single larger turbine.
Two smaller Pelton turbines are most likely to be more expensive than a single large Pelton
turbine for the same combined capacity, but the benefits are:
• The reduced downtime associated with two machines. This varies from country to
country and site to site and therefore any thorough evaluation would need to take a
view on the reduction of the amount of downtime from going from one turbine to two,
and the knock-on effect to the amount of electricity generated,
• A higher efficiency can be achieved for a higher proportion of the flow curve leading
to a higher annual electrical energy capture,
• The ability to continue operation of the plant on one of the two turbines (at reasonable
efficiency) at low flows, as opposed to very poor efficiency for only one installed
turbine,
• The reduced weights for the individual pieces of equipment (i.e. turbine and generator)
and associated reduction in costs for craneage, for the construction period and
maintenance (using the internal powerhouse crane)
Ultimately the choice will be based on economics depending on local electricity prices but
calculations would tend to indicate that the two machine option would be a good choice for
the project: For the same installed capacity, it increases in average year the renewable energy
delivered of 0.4%, but mainly to increase by 40% the plant firm capacity.
4.5 Energy generation

4.5.1 Main characteristics of the Pelton turbine
The table hereafter summarizes the gross head, the design flow and the main characteristics of
the Pelton turbines and their output-curve. These data are used in the evaluation of the energy
generation defined in the three following chapters.
Figure 4.7: Main characteristics of the Pelton turbine

4.5.2 Energy produced in average year

Based on the previous analysis, the Gura Small Hydro Plant capacity is equal to 2,833 kW.
For the equipment defined above and the EFC in median year, the energy produced annually
is equal to 17.87 GWh with a capacity factor of 72%.
According to the SHP scheme sizing and the hydrology & charge data of Gura river, the
availability of power in % of the time is given by the following curves:
Figure 4.8: Power & Flow Duration Curves – Median year
4.5.3 Energy produced in dry years

For the equipment defined above and the EFC in dry year T10, the annual energy production
is equal to 17.5 GWh with a capacity factor of 71%.
These values are not very different from those obtained in average year.

Figure 4.9: Power & Flow Duration Curves – Dry year T10
4.5.4 Energy produced in rainy years

For the equipment defined above and the EFC in rainy year T10, the annual energy
production is equal to 19.0 GWh with a capacity factor of 77%.
As previously one can note that these values are not very distant from those obtained in
average year: these results show the extreme regularity of the river.
Figure 4.10: Power & Flow Duration Curves – Rainy year T10
4.6 Plan of development

The plan of development is presented on the previous maps 4.1 and 4.2.

4.6.1 Hydraulic calculation and results

Developed in the following paragraphs and presented in the form of a longitudinal profile in
map GUR-N°3 (cf. Annex), the hydraulic calculations were established on the basis of the
weir water level of the two characteristic design flows (1) Qeq (2.50 m3/s) and (2) QT100
(165 m3/s) and by taking into account a certain number of elements such the slope of the
waterway, the sets of the geometrical characteristics of the different hydraulic structures and
the regular pressure losses (friction) and singular related (entry, exit, change, abrupt or not, of
the flow cross-section etc…).
The next table summarizes, for each hydraulic works, the elevation of the water levels for the
two quoted flows.
Table 4.18: Hydraulic feature (Gura)
Q= 165
Items Q= 2.5 m3/s m3/s
Weir level 2,066.00 2,066.00
Gura river ELV 1 2,066.11 2,067.65
Settling basin upstream ELV 2 2,066.10 2,066.45
Settiling basin downstream ELV 3 2,066.10 2,066.10
Main canal (upstream) ELV 4 2,066.00 -
Main canal (downstream) ELV 5 2,061.85 -
Forebay inlet ELV 6 2,061.68 -
Forebay Max pool level MPL 2,062.19 -
Forebay Low pool level LPL 2,060.86 -
Forebay outlet ELV 7 2,061.51 -
Penstock ND 900 losses 1 PL1 0.78 -
Power house ELV 8 2,054.55 -
Tail race level ELV 9 1,900.80 -
4.6.2 The weir and the intake structure

In Gura SHP, the weir is a non-storage run-of-the-river diversion structure.
The following inherent design characteristics are adopted for the diversion weir structure:
Ogee-type spillway weir where the entire crest length (35 m) serves as the principal
spillway in case of overflow;
Three (3) meter-high weir height from upstream apron slab to dam’s crest;
Boulder-core with concrete binder for the main Ogee core with 0.25 meter (m) concrete
wearing surface;
Provided with 2 sluice gates:
(1) a simple one 3.5x3.5 m in the right bank. Its function is to flush off sediments
from the upstream to the downstream locations and also to act as secondary
spillway, and

(2) a small one (dim.0.8x0.8 m) controlled by the upstream water level, to allow the
residual flow downstream (416 l/s);
Provided with upstream and downstream apron slabs with penetrating cut-off walls
beneath the river to arrest excessive seepages;
Provided with complete intake structure (towards the settling basin and the canal) with
steel trash racks to prevent large debris from entering intake, lifting mechanism for gate
control and sediment control device.
The design criteria adopted are as follows:
100 years flood frequency in the analysis of the afflux elevation (i.e. the rise in elevation
above the weir’s flood level)
Safety factor of at least 1.25 in the stability analysis of the main weir ogee core with the
maximum water pressure up to the afflux level, and seepage analysis by use of the Lane’s
weighted creep theory in the sizing of the upstream and the downstream apron slab’s
lengths.
At an elevation of 2,068 m, the intake barrier of 6.70 long and 5.00 m high, the intake is
located on the small cliff forming the north abutment, at a suitable level to allow discharge
into the settling basin and the canal.
Interdependent of the weir and the settling basin downstream, the intake is composed of two
sluices 1.50x1.50 provided with two power-controlled valves.
A trash rack and a stop log isolate the civil works downstream the settling basin.
The flow in the canal is regulated (using an “opening law” formula), at the same time, by
these first valves and an other motorised one, located at the end of the settling basin and
upstream of the canal.
The bottom of the river bed, upstream and downstream, is composed of more or less
important blocks (boulders) which were installed on the passing time and which appears
stable under the effect of the river current.
Nevertheless, on the area of the various structures composing the weir/intake, these materials
will be cleared down to the bed-rock and will be replaced by a rolled compacted fill carried
out successively starting from the two banks.
If the location of the weir is on the quick velocity area of the river, the flushing gate, the
intake and the settling basin are, on the right bank, over the (quiet) average velocity area.
In this upstream zone, these works are protected:
on the one hand by a small wall parallel to the river, occurring its with the weir and
developing upstream.
On the other hand by an arrangement of the boulders built with a coal shovel upstream
over a distance of 22 m.
These arrangements, if they do not isolate really the weir, reduce the risks of material drivings
downstream from the river bed towards the intake and the settling basin.

The map GUR-N°8 given in annex and the two tables hereafter show the outline design
details for the weir and the intake structure for Gura SHP.
Table 4.19: Weir geometrical characteristics
N° Items
1 Nominal discharge m3/s 2.5
2 Weir elevation m 2,066.00
4 Spillway lenght m 35.00
5 Spillway width m 9.81
6 Upstream apron slab elevation m 2,063.00
7 Downstream apron slab elevation m 2,062.70
8 Water levels (design flow &flood flow T=100) m 2,066.11/2,067.65
9 Associated sluice gates: m
10 to flush off the sediments downstream
11 Layout mm 1x3,500x3,500
12 Elevation m 2,066.50
13 For the residual flow (416 l/s)
14 Layout mm 1x500x500
16 General level of the banks m 2,690.00
Table 4.20: Weir gates characteristics
4.6.3 The settling basin

4.6.3.1 General description
The settling basin, proposed to clean the water from its suspended solid residues (TSS), will
be laid immediately downstream the intake and upstream of the waterway.
In addition, this hydraulic structure plays also safety and regulation roles to protect the canal:
• Safety because its spillway is dimensioned to protect the canal at the time of occurred
T100 flood flow (or other less important flood flows),
• Regulation because two servo-motorized sluice valves, upstream and downstream, will
allow flow regulation before its entrance in the waterway.
The settling basin, perpendicular to the weir and superficially founded at elevation 2,062.00 m
is built on reinforced concrete. It constitutes the right bank abutment of the river.

34.60 m length, its working width 4.25 m (out off 5.55 m) allows an equipped flow transit
(2.50 m3/s) under low speed (0.5 m/s)
Downstream, two manoeuvrable sluice gates at elevation 2,068.00 m regulate, on the one
hand, the transit of the nominal capacity towards the canal (1 motorized 1,200x1,200) and, on
the other hand, the periodic draining of the work (1 manual 1,500x1,500)
This last sluice gate is not designed to pass the flood through, but to be opened periodically in
the flood season for cleaning out deposits.
The normal water level is regulated by a lateral spillway at elevation 2,066.10 m. This
elevation corresponds to the structure water level when the nominal discharge goes through.
This spillway has the role to chop the flood flows (until the T100 flood flow) and to allow,
with the downstream sluice gate 1,200x1,200, the keen adjustment of the flow required by the
power station.
The water level reached in the work at the time of the happened T100 flood flow is 2,067.50
m for an drained off flow of 3.5 m3/s.
The design/dimensioning of the settling basin are given to the following chapter.
The inherent design characteristics given in the following table are adopted.
Table 4.21: Settling Basin geometrical characteristics
N° Items
1 Nominal discharge m3/s 2.50
2 Length / Width of the settling basin m 34.60x5.55
3 Height of the settling basin m Between 5.00 & 5.30
4 Storage volume m3 231
5 Length of the spillway m 11
6 Input/output raft elevation of the settling m 2,063.00 / 2,062.70
basin
7 Input elevation of the canal m 2,064.77
8 General level of exploitation m 2,068.00
9 General level of the access m 2,066.60
10 Trash rack 1
11 Water level during the design flow m 2,066.10
12 Associated sluice gates:
13 To supply the settling basin (2,50 m3/s)
14 Layout mm 2x1,500x1,500
16 to flush off the sediments downstream
17 Layout mm 1x1,500x1,500
19 to supply the canal (2,50 m3/s)
20 Layout mm 1x1,200x1,200
Table 4.22: Settling basin gates characteristics

4.6.3.2 Settling basin: Detailed design of civil construction
4.6.3.2.1 Dimension
The design of the settling basin uses Camp method
According Camp:
WxL / VxY = ((WxY^1/6) / VxNxG^1/2)
With:
W: Sedimentation velocity,
L: Length of the basin,
V: Flow velocity,
Y: Flow depth,
N: Manning coefficient,
G: Gravity acceleration.
When the particle diameter of sediment is 0.25 mm, according to Camp, the vertical speed W
is equal to 0.03 m/s. The diameter of 0.25 mm is typically recommended by the suppliers of
Pelton turbines.
With the assumption that flow depth Y equal with channel depth, and the basin width equal to
4.86 m, we assume that:
V = 3.00 / 1.23 x 4.86 = 0.50 m/s
((WxY^1/6) / VxNxG^1/2) = 0.03 x 1.23^0.1667 / 0.50 x 0.018 x 9.81^0.5 = 1.1016
So, for 100% sedimentation:
WxL / VxY = 1.1016
The length of the settling basin is then:
L = 1.1016 x 0.50 x 1.23 / 0.03 = 22.58 = 23 m.
So, we take L = 23 m and B = 4.90 m, with a transition length upstream (intake) equal to 7.7
m.
In the section considered and for V= 0.50 m/s, we obtain a gradient for the settling basin
equal to 0.11 mm/m.

4.6.3.2.2 Design of storage volume

The storage volume capacity required depends on total of sediment (base and fly sediment)
that will deposit till flushing time. The rate of sedimentation (TSS and iron) based on field
survey is equal to 10 mg/l. We choose to dimension with this last value (10g/m3).
That is to say 10 x 3.0= 30 g/s.
We obtain, with a relative density of the grains (due to the water) of 1.5 t/m3, an evaluated
annual throughput with 630 m3/year. That is to say 52.5 m3 per month.
The design of the storage volume is: (((2 064.9 – 2 062.7) + (2 064.9 – 2 063))/2) x 4.90 x 23
= 231 m3
So, the flushing frequency of de-silting is 231 / 52.5 = 4.40 months.
4.6.3.2.3 Control of the settling basin

According Shields equation:
d = 10^4 x R x I
with:
d: the biggest particle diameter that will throw away (same with trash rack opener, i.e. 50 mm)
R: mean of hydraulic radius,
I: bottom slope.
We have S = 6.027 m; P = 7.36; R = 0.8189
Therefore the bottom slope is I = 50 / 10^4 x 0.8189 = 0.0061 = 0.61%
The slope over 23 m distance is: I = 14.03 cm,
The depth difference till under sluice is selected equal to 0.3m.
4.6.3.2.4 Spill way

The spillway is designed downstream of the settling basin, and be function to flow the
increase water at flood condition.
The elevation of upstream water level at 100 years flood return period is 2,067.65 m.
Height of flood water at the intake: we use Bernoulli equation through 2 sluice gates 1.5 x 1.5
m.
E1 = E2+∆h
Z1+P1/γ+V1^2/2g = Z2+P2/γ+V2^2/2g + ∆h
with ∆h= K x V2^2/2g (K= 0.78 coarse shape)
Then Z = Z1-Z2 = 1.78 x V2^2/2g
V2^2 = 2gZ / 1.78
V2 = 0.75 x (2gZ)^0.5 with Z = 2 067.65 – 2 066.45 – ½ x 1.5 = 0.45 m
V2 = 2.2285 m/s

And Q = 2x1.50x1.50 x 2.229 = 10.03 m3/s

The waterway capacity is, for h = 1.83 m, equal to 6.81 m3/s.
Then the discharge that will overflow at the settling basin is 10,03 – 6,810 = 3,21 = 3,5 m3/s.
To design the weir we use this formula:
Q = m x L x h x (2gh)^0,5
with m = 0.80 x 0.4375 = 0. 35
Then L = 2.2576 / h^1.5
h = 0.30 m → L = 13.73 m = 14 m
h = 0.35 m → L = 10.90 = 11 m
h = 0.40 m → L = 8.92 = 9 m
With L = 11.0 m, the water height that overflow over the spillway is 0.35 m.
4.6.4 The waterway

The waterway line is an important part of any hydropower system and its function is to
convey water from the intake of the weir and the settling basin to the forebay and down to the
turbine through the penstock line.
The total length of the waterway is 6,665 meters with a slope of 0.59 mm/m. The waterway
consists mainly in cuts on the right bank of the river, between elevations 2,064.77 m and
2,059.72 m.
Its profile is essentially trapezoidal (over 6,480 m out of 6,665 m), except when crossing the
specific ditches (marked) where the canal shall be rectangular and carried out on posts (over
185 m out of 6,665 m).
Maps GUR-N°9, N°5, N°6 & N°7 given in annex (i) show the outline design details for the
typical cross sections and (ii) indicate in three topographic maps the various zones where the
typical sections are applied.
Dimensioned for the capacity of 3.0 m3/s (nominal capacity of 2.50 m3/s with a safety factor
of 20%), the height of normal water level in the canal is identical for the two profiles: 1.23 m.
With that flow capacity, the velocity of water flow in the trapezoidal profile is 1 m/s.
The free board suggested is 0.60 m.
We propose a concrete lining for the trapezoidal sections. The role of this coating is multiple:
it must ensure the sealing, avoid the erosion of the closeness soils and facilitate the marling
conditions, improve the condition of flow, ensure a long durability of the canal and reduce
maintenance.
In certain sections and according to the closeness soils, this coating could be drained in the
foundation raft (draining and/or filtering refill in alluvia) and on the walls of the canal (porous
concrete trenches), water of drainage being evacuated by a longitudinal collector located
under the foundation raft.

According to the nature of the soils encountered, some joints could be placed in the coating.
The purpose of these joints is to locate the cracking of the concrete slabs due to the
withdrawal, the thermal expansions and the possible packing down.
The coating of the all length of the canal with a concrete lining has been proposed and has
been taken into account in the total evaluation of the works.
However this proposal to coat the waterway or to adapt its coating-type (coating by stone
pitching or masonry) could be modified according to the results of the detailed geotechnical
investigations which will be conducted on the canal later, in particular if these new provisions
result in reducing the total cost of this transfer. It will be however noted, in the chapter
dealing with the total amount of the investments, that, for the canal itself, it is primarily the
share of the earthworks which is important.
A service path protected by gravel (three meters broad) and ditches (especially for the cut
profiles and intended to drain surface waters coming from the top of the valley) will border
the canal on its all course.
A gutter of remote control, posed on sand and connecting the weir to the forebay and the
power station will be laid out close to the canal edge.
As the canal in the low earth-cut zones will cross small existing foot tracks between some
open settlements and various cultivated pieces, several new accesses for farmers and cattle
will be realised above the trapezoidal canal (concrete slab and handrails).
Lastly, to allow the natural drainage of the slope, culverts (ND 200 to ND800) will be
arranged under the raft foundation of the canal when it crosses the little marked ditches. These
ditches will become the main discharge system of (1) the small drainage sewers which could
sometimes be placed under the canal, (2) the few draining works of the canal (3) and its safety
spillways.
The design/dimensioning of the canal are given to the following chapter.
4.6.4.2 Waterway: detailed design of civil construction

The waterway is designed in trapezoid shape (some parts in rectangular shape).
The design of flow velocity in the channel is 1 m/s.
The waterway design discharge is 2.50 m3/s.
The channel capacity is designed with 120% of the design discharge, i.e. 3.00 m3/s. This
requirement is to anticipate the discharge decrease over the 6.67 km length, caused of trash
etc.
The waterway is considered as a long channel and the flow of this nature can be considered as
uniform flow. Maning’s equation can be used below.
4.6.4.2.1 Canal trapezoidal:

A=1.50 m2
The width of channel bottom is 1.20 m.
The left and right side slope of the channel is 1H/1V.

Table 4.23: Lined trapezoidal channel characteristics

LINED TRAPEZOÏDAL CHANNEL:
Q=2.5 & 3.0 m3/s, K=55.5, Side slope 1/1, b=1.20 m, i=0.00059 m/m
h S P R Q V
m m2 m m m3/s m/s
0.9 1.890 3.745 0.5045 1.614 0.85
0.95 2.042 3.887 0.5254 1.792 0.87
1.1251 2.615 4.382 0.5969 2.500 0.95
1.2325 2.998 4.686 0.6397 3.000 1.00
1.83 5.544 6.376 0.8696 6.810 1.23
We obtain with a slope of 0.59 mm/m :

For b=1.20 m: h= 1.13 m for 2.,50 m3/s and h= 1.23 m for 3.00 m3/s with V= 1.00 m/s.
Free board = 0.25xh+0.3= 0.6081 rounding to 0.6m.
4.6.4.2.2 Canal rectangular:

The width of channel bottom is 2.5 m.
Table 4.24: Lined rectangular channel characteristics
LINED RECTANGULAR CHANNEL:
Q=2.5 & 3.0 m3/s, K=55.5, b=2.50m, i=0.00059 m/m
h S P R Q V
m m2 m m m3/s m/s
1 2.486 4.486 0.5541 2.260 0.90
1.3 3.232 5.086 0.6354 3.220 1.00
1.0765 2.676 4.639 0.5769 2.500 0.93
1.2325 3.064 4.951 0.6189 3.000 0.98
We obtain with a slope of 0.59 mm/m:

For b=2.50 m: h=1.08 m for 2.50 m3/s and h=1.23 m for 3.00 m3/s.
The free board is the same as previously: 0.60 m.
4.6.4.2.3 Head loss along the channel:

The length of the waterway is 6,665 m till the forebay, so, the estimated head loss along the
channel is:
P1 = 1^2x6 665/(55.5^2x0.6398^4/3) = 3.92 m
Along the waterway there are 35 bends. The head loss caused by the bends is:
P2 = 0.3x 1/(2x9.81)x14 = 0.21 m
Total head loss along the waterway: 4.15 m
4.6.4.2.4 Water reserve

Water Reserve (by deepening) at the end of the canal (intersection of the canal and the main
road (from Gura river to the Munyange village)
The assumptions taken into account are as follows:

• The deepening of the waterway (depth p) is carried out without modification of the
geometry and the slope of the canal,
• Referring to the empirical frequency curve, the available minimum flow on Gura river
is permanently of 740 l/s.
• The departure of the penstock is (in the forebay) under the foundation raft of the canal.
• Volumes available: (described here below)
This evaluation is given in the table hereafter, which presents 2 variables: (1) the deepening p
and the length of the concerned reach L (the length of the reach between the canal and the
village of Munyande is approximately 1,250 m).
Table 4.25: Water reserve (m3) by deepening (d (m))
D (m) 0,10 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00 1,25 1,50
Additional volumes mobilised compared to the
L (m)
current section of the canal
100 37 94 200 317 448 590 746
250 93 236 499 794 1 119 1 476 1 864
500 186 472 998 1 587 2 238 2 952 3 728
1 000 373 944 1 997 3 174 4 477 5 904 7 457
1 250 466 1 181 2 496 3 968 5 596 7 381 9 321
1 500 559 1 417 2 995 4 762 6 715 8 857 11 185
2 000 746 1 889 3 994 6 349 8 954 11 809 14 914
For L =1,250m and a deepening of one meter, the capacity storage is 5,600 m3.
For this volume, the power station can work with full capacity lasting T = 5,600/(2.50 – 0.74)
x 3,600 = 0.88, that is to say 1 hour approximately.
4.6.5 The forebay

The proposed forebay, made of reinforced concrete, is located at the end of the canal at the
top of the slope dominating the power house and the river.
Its aim is to receive the water from the canal and to distribute it to the penstock.
This structure shall be long and wide enough to accommodate the penstock, the spillway or
the scouring gate. Its storage volume shall be capable of regulating the flow entering the
penstock.
This buried construction has 15.50 m length for an inside width of 3.15 m. It is composed of
two main parts, the first organising the lateral spillway (see below) and the scouring gate, the
second feeding the pressure pipe.
Stop log separates these two parts enabling to completely isolate the pipe pressure at the time
of the O & M operations.
On both sides of the gate, a first rough grid and a fine grid enable to stop the floating debris
and the last immersed harmful particles before the penstock entrance.

In SHP plants, the draw down/up of the water during transitory phenomena can be considered
as small. When the plant is suddenly shut down, a hydraulic bore or surge takes place while
the canal is still supplying water to the forebay. Nevertheless, this will happen during an
emergency and will be considered.
Because of it, a side spillway is provided and then the complicated procedures associated with
unsteady flows can be avoided. This side spillway is designed for maximum discharges into
the canal.
Likewise, to accommodate the deposition of silt, the entrance elevation of the forebay’s intake
is much higher than the floor base. As a result the maximum water depth picked in the
proposed forebay is approximately 4.3 m, and the mean velocity is 0.20 m/s, so that it can be
expected to settle out effectively the last harmful particles in this bottom of the reservoir.
The forebay outlet, scheduled during shut-down of the plant, will take place through a buried
pipe ND 900 towards a stable gully located in the vicinity. Plumb in the pipe outlet area, a
stone rip-rap, centred on the scouring pipe, is envisaged to prevent erosion and possible local
landslides.
Map GUR-2 (given in annex) shows the gully and the spillway alignment from the forebay.
Map GUR-10 (annex) and the two tables below show its outline design.
Table 4.26: Forebay geometrical characteristics
N° Items
1 Length / Width of the forebay m 15.50x3.75
2 L1 12.00
3 B1 3.15
4 (Maximum) Height of the forebay m2 5.5
5 Length of the spillway m2 9.5
6 Input/output raft elevation of the forebay m2 2,059.72 / 2,057.55
7 General level of exploitation m 2,062.55
8 General level of the access m 2,061.5
9 Trash rack 2.00
10 Water level during the design flow m 2,061.68/2,061.51
11 Associated scouring gates:
12 for emptying & to flush off the sediments downstream
13 Layout mm 1x1,500x1,500
Table 4.27: Forebay gates characteristics
4.6.5.2 Forebay: Detailed design of civil construction
4.6.5.2.1 Dimension
The width of the forebay is determined by the total width of the intake or other appurtenances,
taking into consideration the average velocity in the forebay or in front of the intake.
B is the total width of the intake, B = 0.9 + 2 x 0.60 = 2.10 m

And B1 the total width of the forebay, B1 =1.5 x B = 1.5 x 2.10 = 3.15 m
The length L of the forebay (excluding the intake length L1) is equal to 3 x B1 taking into
consideration the layout of its appurtenances, such as the side spillway and the sand sluice or
the scouring gate.
L1 = 3.50 m and L = 3 x 3.15 = 9.45 m
For hydraulic reasons partly due to the depth of the penstock ND 900, a L1 length of 12.00 m
is retained.
The length of the horizontal floor base itself is be greater than B1.
4.6.5.2.2 Depth of the forebay based on penstock size and position

The minimum depth of penstock intake from water surface (S) is done by:
S = C x V x ND^0.5
with C = 0.54; V: velocity in the penstock 3.93 m/s and ND900mm
S = 0.54 x 3.93 x 0.9^0.5 = 2.01 m
The depth of the penstock intake is 2,061.51- 2,058.45= 3.06 > 2.01 m
4.6.5.2.3 Spillway
The side spillway should be designed for maximum discharge into the canal (3.00 m3/s) and
the top edge of the intake should be well positioned below the lowest pool level to prevent air
entrainment during draw down.
To design the weir we use the formula: Q = m x L x h x (2gh)^0.5 with m = 0.35
L = 1.9351 / h^1.5
h = 0.30 → L = 11.70 m = 12.00 m
h = 0.35 → L = 9.35 m= 9.50 m
h = 0.40 → L = 7.65 m = 8.00 m
With L = 9.50 m, the water height that overflow over the spillway is approximately 0.35 m.
4.6.6 The penstock line

The penstock line is the high pressure component of the SHP system. It conveys water from
the forebay (atmospheric or free pressure flow state) to the power house (pressure flow state)
and converts the potential energy of the flow at the forebay into kinetic energy at the turbine
level.

The proposed penstock is a steel penstock, being proof against stabilised pressures about 1.6
bars, and being able to reach 3 to 4 bars at the time of the hydraulic transient states.
The penstock is also buried. This decision is made, on the one hand, to avoid cutting a certain
number of cultivated pieces and access tracks between the forebay and the power house, and
on the other hand, for obvious environmental reasons since it is located on the opposed slope
to the road connecting Ndugamano to Muyange.

Between forebay and power house (and despite to be buried), seven anchor blocks (stable
against overturning and sliding) are placed at every sharp change along the penstock pipe.
They are designed to retain penstock pipe movement in all directions.
Two thermal joints (expansion/contraction), also playing the role of relative settlement joint
between works and penstock, are envisaged to be installed.
For manufacture and production costs reasons, but also to face the hydraulic transient states,
the penstock thickness is constant on its entire course. Later, the project building documents
will examine the possibility of reducing sequentially this thickness according to the position
of the pipe in the penstock line, and correlatively its final cost.
4.6.6.1.1 Penstock diameter

Empirical formulas for ascertaining the economic diameters for penstocks are recommended
by various authors on the basis of data from existing penstocks (by the regression method)
among which the following empirical formula is recommended for SHP plants.
De = C1 x C2 Q^0.43 x H^-0.24
With C1 = 1.5 (areas where the energy cost is medium); C2 = 1.25 (steel penstock); Q = 3.0
m3/s and H = 155 m (design head of the plant)
Then De = 1.5 x 1.25 x 3.0^0.43 x 155^-0.24 = 0.896 m
We assume for Gura SHP a selected penstock diameter of ND 900.
For this diameter, speed at the nominal discharge is 3.93 m/s and the regular and singular
pressure losses are close to 7 m (4,5% of the total height)
4.6.6.1.2 Material & Wall thickness

The penstock uses steel material which is widely used in high head plants and where there is
an expectation of a long service life.
Wall thickness of the penstock is calculated considering the static pressure owing to the
difference in water level from the forebay to the power house’s tailrace and another pressure
component: the (very importantly) dynamic pressure in the event of the rapid closure of the
butterfly valve before the turbine.
Its thickness is determined by t = (ND + 800) / 400 = 4.25 mm
The corrosion thickness added for penstock will taken 3 mm.
As the dynamic pressure take as 40% of the static pressure (which is added to calculate the
internal bursting pressure) and to keep more stiffness during transportation, we assume finally
a thickness of t=10 mm.
The following inherent design characteristics are adopted for the penstock line.

Table 4.28: Penstock geometrical characteristics

N° Items
1 Nominal (Internal) diameter ND mm 900.00
2 Layout buried
3 Elevation departure (Edge of Gura forebay) m 2,058.00
4 Elevation arrival (Edge of Gura power house) m 1,903.50
5 Length m 392
6 Number of joint (expansion or relative settlement) 2
7 Work area width m 14.9
Table 4.29: Penstock mechanical characteristics
The map GUR-N°10 in annex shows its outline design.
4.6.7 The powerhouse and the tailrace channel

The powerhouse shall be a masonry-wall building partially buried in the natural right edge-
slope of Gura river, covered with a metallic trussed roof. All the generating facilities are
housed inside the building except the main and the auxiliary transformers, the treated water
tank and the sewerage system.
The powerhouse shall be sized for housing all the electromechanical equipment in the
machinery room and shall have an office area (3.00x2.50) and sanitary facilities (2.10x1.25).
Its size shall be at least 18.33x10.50 m and high enough for unloading the equipment from a
truck.
The building has of a double leaf door 4.50 m broad to allow equipment installation and an
additional door to the office area.
The front side of the building has several windows and low and high airings, to allow natural
lighting and ventilation of the groups.
Located not far from a school, the shape of the building and the building materials will reduce
the visual impacts, and will bring back the acoustic incidence of the project to a low level in
comparison with the current situation of this area. For that reason, accurate noise-traps will be
placed in the high and low ventilations.
The architectural commitment and the frontages will be close to those of the local habitat.
An overhead gantry crane shall be installed to raise or lower the heaviest equipment in the
machinery room.
In infrastructure, the civil engineering of the tail race canal is interdependent of the concrete
support slab of the turbine-alternator group. It ensures the restitution of turbinate water until a
section of the river located roughly at about forty meters from the powerhouse. This work will
be adapted in its design to avoid the possible ascent of fish in its direction.

A fence shall enclose the entire site of the powerhouse and forbid any trespassing except by
the main gate.
The following inherence design characteristics are adopted for the powerhouse structure.
Table 4.30: Powerhouse & Tailrace geometrical characteristics
N° Items
1 Length / Width of the Power house m 18,33x10,50
2 Total surface on the ground m2 220
3 -of witch office (soundproofed) m2 7.5
4 -of witch sanitary m2 3.5
5 Elevation of the axis of the turbine m 1,903.50
6 General level of SHP exploitation m 1,903.00
Tail race water level m 1,900.80
7 Raft elevation of the tail race to Gura river m 1,899.67
8 Raft width of the tail race to Gura river m 1.2
4.6.7.2 Electro-mechanical equipment

The main electro-mechanical equipment in the machinery room includes:
- Two butterfly valves ND 600 NP 25 with their by-pass; servo-motors opens its and
counterweights for safety closes its.
- Two horizontal axis unit with Pelton turbines and brushless synchronous generators
- Two oil system and governor for the turbines and the valves control
- The medium voltage switchgear with 8 cells:
o Two cells for the generators’circuit breakers
o One cell for the bus bar isolating switch and the measurement apparatus on the
bus bar.
o One cell with fuses interrupter for the auxiliary transformer
o Four cells housing the circuit breakers for the feeders to Iria Ini-Chinga,
Gitugi, Gathuti and KPLC
- The control and protection cubicles including the auxiliary AC and DC supplies
- The 20 KVA standby diesel generator
- The water filter and treatment system to supply the site with drinkable water.
- The Cadmium-Nickel battery for the DC supply
Two full-enclosed ONAN transformers (2 x 2,000 kVA) raising the generator voltage to 11
KV shall be located outdoor on a pad close to the PH wall. They shall be sheltered by the PH
roof overhang and fully fenced.
The first pole of each 11 KV line shall be located inside the PH site. They shall be equipped
with three lightning arrestors.
All the electrical equipment in the PH site shall be interconnected outside of the building by
armed cables laid in the ground with specific protection.

Earthing buried network shall be done during the earthwork in order to get an earthing
resistance less than one ohm. All the metallic part and the lightning arresters on the site shall
be strongly earthed. Neutral point of transformer and generator shall be earthed through a
resistance to limit the fault-current to 30 Amp.
The site shall be protected from thunder by an active lightning rod on the PH roof and directly
earthed in specific earth rods.
The main characteristics of the mechanical and electric equipment of Gura SHP are given
hereafter:
Table 4.31: Powerhouse equipment characteristics
N° Items
1 Design flow m3/s 2.5
2 Gross head m 154.50
3 Net head m 147,54
4 SHP capacity kW 2,840.00
5 Turbine type Pelton

6 Number/ axis 2/ horizontal
7 Turbine efficiency curve data source standard
8 Number of jets for the turbine 3
9 nominal speed t/mn 1,500
10 Turbine peak efficiency % 87
11 Flow at peak efficiency m3/s 1.7
12 Turbine efficiency at design flow % 85.8
13 Alternator type synchronous/brushless

14 Power (kVA) 3,000 kVA
15 Voltage MV
16 cos phi 0.8
17 Butterfly valve
2xND 600/ NP 25 kit out
18 Diameter/Nominal water pressure
with its bypass
Servo-motorized-Closing
19 Opening/Closing
ensured by a counterweight
20 Production group of oil under pressure yes
21 Transformers
Main transformer 3,000 kVA, MV/11 kV
Transformer of the auxiliaries 50 kVA - 11,000 V/400 V
The drawing GUR-N°11 given in annex shows the powerhouse concept plan for Gura SHP.
4.6.7.3 Electrical diagram at powerhouse

The electrical design is a block diagram design which is the most convenient for that size of
power.

The generators shall be synchronous brushless ones. The supplier shall determine output
voltage by between 4 and 7.2 KV. Sets of CTs and PTs shall give the value of current and
voltage for the protective relays, the synchronizer, the voltage regulator and the metering.
Neutral point shall be formed and earthed through a resistance to limit fault current.
The main transformers shall be a D/Y type with a no-load tap changer and neutral earthed
through a resistance on the HV side. They shall be protected by thermal, buckholz and over-
current relays.
The drawable circuit-breakers shall be SF6 type. The control system and the protective relays
activates directly the tripping by voltage missing.
Auxiliary AC shall be supplied by the 100 KVA three-phase transformer and the 20 KVA
stand-by Diesel generator could supply electricity in case of a long time breakdown.
The power plant is designed for an isolated network but authorizes also operation in parallel
with other generators.
The control system has 4 modes:
1. Automatic mode, intake level monitoring: the control system starts/synchronizes/
connects and adjusts the units to the optimal power to maintain constant the intake
water level.
2. Automatic mode, network monitoring: the control system starts/synchronizes/connects
and adjusts the power to the network load but the power remains limited to the
available upstream flow.
3. Semi automatic mode: the control system starts/synchronizes/connects and maintains
the power to a set point chosen by the operator, but the power remains limited to the
available upstream flow.
4. Manual mode: the operator starts/synchronizes/connects and adjusts the power output
by push buttons on the control board.
In every mode, the protective relays, the synchro-check and the automatic emergency shut-
down remain operative.
The operator has to adjust the voltage set point and the AVR shall maintain the voltage at the
chosen value.

Figure 4.11: Single-line electrical diagram of the SHP powerhouse

FEEDER FEEDER FEEDER FEEDER
IRIA & GITURI GATHUTI KPLC
CHINGA
TRIP TRIP TRIP TRIP
11 KV SWITCHGEAR
I>> I>> I>> I>>
A A A A
UNIT 2
TRIP IDENTICAL Var Var Var Var
TO
W W W W
UNIT1
V V V V
I>> kW kW kW kW
I>
Dy
11/0,4 KV
Yd 100 KVA
11/ KV R
2000 KVA
Diesel
D generator
to SYNCHRO G2 20 KVA
u> 400 V Y
u<
F V SYNCHRO
rpm 1500 KW
G1 AVR A W
brushless + or - kW
Speed & V
V
kW W Var
I> I>>
AUXILIARIES SERVICE
I>

4.6.7.4 Provisions for safety of the hydraulic works and the Gura river users
In order to protect both the SHP scheme and the passers-by, the left bank of the Gura
weir/intake and the immediate proximity of all hydraulic works, especially the
powerhouse/tailrace site, will be prohibited and will be surrounded by fencing.
Panels of information judiciously located near these works will indicate to the farmers /
villagers the nature of the equipment, the safety instruction and the ecological advantages of
such installation.
4.6.8 The access road works

Three accesses to the Gura SHP sites are envisaged.
• To reach the weir, Kigumo road will be rehabilitated on 4,400 m, from the school and
the church located near the road Ngugamano/Muyange.
• The access to the forebay will be built from this road taking from middle height
(towards Muyange) the way bordering the canal on 1,250 m.
• Lastly, the access to the power house and the operator’s house will be built from the
bridge located 300 m downstream by taking on approximately 700 m the track
bordering on the left bank the river.
The last two accesses will be carried out in provisional form to the whole beginning of work
(at the same time as the earthworks of the canal in its final part). Final accesses will be carried
out at the end of the work.
4.6.9 Operator’s house

Operator’s house is close to the power house and located at the same level (1,902.80 m) It will
occupy a land area of 8.0 m x 12.50 m.
Its architectural commitment is identical to that the power house.
Operator’s house shall be a masonry-wall building partially buried and covered with a
metallic roof. Four reinforced concrete columns are placed at each corner where the walls are
attached.
The building, which includes four rooms of which a kitchen, is largely open (bay window) in
direction of the power house.
4.7 Work schedule

For Gura SHP, a list of tasks has been established and detailed task durations have been
assessed. A detailed tentative work program has been studied for the selected scheme.
The times before work are regulated mainly by the land control. A provision of 16 months is
proposed for the total achievement of these tasks.
The time of works is 24 months.
This time is divided into 24 months for the realization of the civil engineering and 13 months
for manufacture, transport and installation of the hydraulic and electric materials.

Inside these two schedules: 17 months are proposed for the realization of the canal and its
final work (forebay) and 8 months are proposed for the manufacture of the turbine generator
set.

Figure 4.12: Suggested detailed work programme

New work programme

4.8 Staffing and training requirements for plant operation and

management
4.8.1 Tentative list of staff required
Provided that the tea factories are expected to play a direct and active role in the management
and operation of the mini hydro plants, they must have qualified staff. This staff can be either
recruited or adequately trained. In the first case utility personnel or former staff from the
industry with practice in mini or large hydro can be sought.
The list of the personnel can be as follows:
• Management staff (engineer level):
The plant manager responsible for the power station,
and a financial & administrative officer (The both can directly come from the staff of
the four tea factories recipient of the project)
• Operational staff (technician level):
6 operators working into three/eight with a responsible indicated,
• and:
1 security guard.
4.8.2 Hydroelectricity capacity building
In the case of training on purpose of the tea factory, the following training actions can be
taken:
• Management staff:
General theoretical training on power generation, hydrology, main principles of the
civil works and electro-mechanics: runner, generator, transformers, DC and AC
auxiliaries, protections, starting, stopping automates and the economics of hydropower
(one week)
Specific training on the mini hydro performance and demand side management by the
contractor in charge of the plant optimisation concepts and dedicated software.
• Operational staff:
• General theoretical training on power generation, hydrology, main principles of the
civil works and electro-mechanics: runner, generator, transformers, DC and AC
auxiliaries, protections, starting, stopping automates (one week)
• On site preliminary training in another hydro plant (one-to three months) operated by a
power utility or another hydro power generating industry. This session should include
a specific training about safety rules at work,
• Specific on site training on the mini-hydro plant installation as specified in the
contractor’s terms of reference (operation and maintenance)
• Practical training on MV line and substation operation with the local utility.

4.9 Cost estimate

4.9.1 General approach, construction works by contracts and cost
summary
It is assumed that the development of Gura would be undertaken via a Build-Own-Operated
(BOO) company which will bring the equity required for the development of the project.
The owner which probably is EATTA or GATHUTHY, GITUGY, IRIA-INI & CHINGA
TEA FACTORIES will examine later the best way of tendering and organising the realisation
of work.
But, as in most mini to medium hydroelectric power development projects, which involves
multi-disciplinary works, it is the general approach in construction to categorized the
specialized works and choose the qualified construction or manufacturing/supply/installation
firms which best fit the required expertise on hand.
It is with this general approach that the cost estimates for Gura hydropower site in Nyeri
district were based upon.
In the proposed cost estimate:
the prices of supply of construction materials and for civil work realisations (Weir, intake,
settling basin, forebay and other hydraulic works), the prices of supply, transport on site
and the prices for laying the penstock or to put in the various gates on the one hand,
the prices of supply, transport and assembly of the mechanical and electric equipments on
the other hand,
are built either from unit costs established on the basis of price schedule extract from recent
contracts, or after consultation.
It is the same for the costs generated by the access road installation and for the 11 kV grid
connection.
The 2 following tables show the general summary and the breakdown of costs of the major
project expenditures respectively.
Table 4.32: General Summary of Project Costs
GENERAL SUMMARY OF PROJECT COST GURA SHP
ITEMS KESx10^3 US $x10^3
SUB-TOTAL "1" CIVIL WORKS (CW) 346 670 4 952
SUB-TOTAL "2" MAIN ELECTRICAL WORKS (MEMW) &
168 866 2 412
SUB-TOTAL "3" ELECTRICAL NETWORK (MV+LV)
A CONTRACTED / CONSTRUCTION WORKS 515 536 7 365
B ENGINEERING SERVICES (DED & CS) 51 364 734
C CONTINGENCIES (5% OF PROJECT COST) 21 350 305
TOTAL PROJECT COST 588 250 8 404

US$ COST/kW 2,966

Table 4.33: Breakdown of Project Costs

BREAKDOWN OF COSTS GURA SHP
ITEMS KESx10^3 US $x10^3
A CONTRACTED / CONSTRUCTION COST
I CONTRACT 1: CIVIL WORKS (CW)
1-GENERAL ITEMS 19 806 283
2-ROAD WORKS 6 256 89
3-WEIR WORKS & INTAKE 45 213 646
4-SETTLING BASIN 15 288 218
5-CANAL 180 130 2 573
6-FOREBAY 8 057 115
7-PENSTOCK LINE 18 406 263
8-POWER HOUSE & TAIL RACE 21 999 314
TOTAL 315 155 4 502
UTR 10% 31 515 450
Sub total '1' CIVIL WORKS (CW) 346 670 4 952
II CONTRACT 2: MAIN ELECTRO-MECHANICAL

WORK (MEMW)
MANUFACTURE, SUPPLY AND INSTALLATION, SUPERVISION
OF HYDRO GENERATING EQUIPMENT SETS (TURBINE,
GENERATOR, CONTROLS TRANSFORMERS ETC…)
TOTAL 133 239 1 903
UTR 5% 6 662 95
Sub total '2' MAIN ELECTRO-MECHANICAL WORKS
139 901 1 999
(MEMW)
III CONTRACT 3: ELECTRICAL NETWORK (MV+LV)

TOTAL 27 585 394
UTR 5% 1 379 20
Sub total '3' ELECTRICAL NETWORK 28 964 414
TOTAL CONSTRUCTION / CONTRACTED COST 515 536 7 365
B ENGINEERING SERVICES
I VALIDATION OF THE DETAILED ENGINEERING
8 732 125
DESIGN (DED)
II CONSTRUCTION SUPERVISION 42 632 609
TOTAL ENGINEERING SERVICES 51 364 734
C CONTINGENCIES 21 350 305

TOTAL CONTINGENCIES 21 350 305
4.9.2 Detailed basis of cost estimates

The basis of cost estimates per pay items are found in the succeeding tables as follows:

Table 4.34: Detailed Costing for Civil Works (CW)

COST TOTAL TOTAL
N° ITEMS UNIT QTY
KESx10^3 KESx10^3 kUS$
I CIVIL WORKS (CW)
1-GENERAL ITEMS
1.1 Mobilisation/Demobilisation LS 7500.00 1.0 7 500
1.2 Investigation drill holes m 20.00 160.0 3 200
1.3 Temporary works - Cofferdam (sand bags) m3 3.00 825.0 2 475
1.4 Land clearing ha 50.00 16.3 816
1.5 Water control LS 385.00 1.0 385
1.6 Site office m2 8.50 180.0 1 530
1.7 Operator house m2 13.00 300.0 3 900
19 806 283
2-ROAD WORKS
2.1 New permanent gravelled road width 5 m km 1125.00 0.300 338
2.2 Rehabilitation of existing road km 300.00 4.400 1 320
Gravelled road width 3 m (along the
2.3 km 690.00 6.665 4 599
canal)
6 256 89
3-WEIR WORKS & INTAKE
3.1 Normal excavation (works) m3 0.30 15 000.0 4 500
3.2 Rock excavation w/out blasting m3 1.50 3 000.0 4 500
3.3 Rock excavation w/ blasting m3 1.90 1 500.0 2 850
3.4 Backfilling compacted m3 0.53 750.0 398
3.5 Rip-rap lining m3 0.70 830.0 581
3.6 Cleanness concrete (100 kg/m3) m3 4.90 45.9 225
3.7 Reinforced concrete (350 kg/m3) m3 11.50 1 685.0 19 378
3.8 Formwork for concrete m2 1.00 515.0 515
3.9 Reinforcing steel bars Kg 0.09 84 250.0 7 583
3.10 Mild steel bars Kg 0.07 8 425.0 590
Sluice gate 3,500x3,500 (fixed and mobile
3.11 u 3145.00 1.0 3 145
parts)
Sluice gate 800x800 (fixed and mobile
3.12 u 950.00 1.0 950
parts)
45 213 646

COST TOTAL TOTAL

N° ITEMS UNIT QTY
4-SETTLING BASIN
4.1 Normal excavation (works) m3 0.300 1,250.0 375
4.2 Rock excavation w/out blasting m3 1.500 250.0 375
4.3 Rock excavation w/ blasting m3 1.900 125.0 238
4.6 Reinforced concrete (350 kg/m3) m3 11.500 370.0 4,255
4.8 Reinforcing steel bars Kg 0.090 37,000.0 3,330
4.9 Mild steel bars Kg 0.070 3,700.0 259
4.10 Steel for trash rack and screen cleaner Kg 0.300 1,203.3 361
Steels for ironwork (grating, footbridge and
4.11 Kg 0.250 484.0 121
handrail…/…)
4.12 u 1260.000 3.0 3,780
parts)
4.13 u 1150.000 1.0 1,150
parts)
15,288 218
5-CANAL
5.1 Normal excavation (works) m3 0.300 259,700.0 77,910
5.2 Rock excavation w/out blasting m3 1.500 25,970.0 38,955
5.3 Backfilling normal (careful embanking) m3 0.300 12,985.0 3,896
5.4 Concrete lining (150 kg/m3) m3 5.250 6,500.0 34,125
5.6 Formwork for concrete m2 1.000 2,700.0 2,700
5.9 Welded wire-mesh Kg 0.060 97,500.0 5,850
5.11 Concrete culverts 0,50 m dia - 1 m m 3.850 75 288
Supply and poses electric precasted concrete
5.15 sleeves, single slope along the top of the m 0.850 7,057 5,998
channel: 15x15
Supply and poses in buried rooms 30x30 -
5.16 spacing 100 meters - with plug cast iron of u 1.150 71 81
visit
180,130 2,573

COST TOTAL TOTAL

N° ITEMS UNIT QTY
6-FOREBAY
6.1 Normal excavation (works) m3 0.300 770.0 231
6.3 Rock excavation w/ blasting m3 1.900 38.5 73
6.12 Steel for trash rack and screen cleaner Kg 0.300 2,494.8 748
Steels for ironwork (grating, footbridge and
6.13 Kg 0.250 155.0 39
handrail…/…)
6.14 u 1260.000 1.0 1,260
parts)
8,057 115
7-PENSTOCK LINE
7.1 Normal excavation (canal & penstock) m4 0.300 1,100.0 330
7.4 Mass concrete (250 kg/m3) m3 9.000 15.0 135
Supply and poses of pipe ND 900 mm out of
7.5 m 41.000 392.0 16,072
steel with welded joints
Supply and poses of pipe ND 600 mm out of
m 37.000 16.0 592
steel with welded joints
Supply and poses of altimetric or planimetric
7.6 bends in ND 900 mm out of steel with welded u 200.000 2.0 400
joints
Supply and poses of a bifurcation ND
7.7 u 420.000 1.0 420
900/600 mm out of steel with welded joints
7.8 Joint ND 900 (relative settlement) u 320.000 2.0 640
18,406 263

COST TOTAL
N° ITEMS UNIT
KESx10^3
QTY
KESx10^3
TOTAL kUS$
8-POWER HOUSE & TAIL RACE
8.1 Normal excavation (works) m3 0.300 3 256.0 977
8.4 Rip-rap lining m3 0.700 300.0 210
8.6 Concrete lining (150 kg/m3) m3 5.250 42.1 221
8.7 Mass concrete (250 kg/m3) m3 9.000 41.3 371
8.8 Reinforced concrete (350 kg/m3) m3 11.500 165.0 1 898
8.10 Reinforcing steel bars Kg 0.090 14 437.5 1 299
8.11 Mild steel bars Kg 0.070 1 443.8 101
8.12 Welded wire-mesh Kg 0.060 631.9 38
Production of wall/partition armed in
8.13 m2 0.850 0
breeze blocks e=22.5 coated 2 layers
Interior painting in two layers - Oil-
8.14 m2 0.380 303 115
based paint
Industrial tiling on the ground and
8.15 m2 0.750 238 179
walls inside the powerhouse
Steels for pipes, connection part and
8.16 special parts in ND 600 (inside the Kg 0.410 1 933.7 793
powerhouse)
Steels for ironwork (grating,
8.17 Kg 0.250 577.4 144
footbridge and handrail…/…)
8.18 Operating platform and access m2 7.100 1 500.0 10 650
8.19 Kerbstones m 0.430 168.0 72
8.20 Rainy network LS 275.000 1.0 275
8.21 Sewage network LS 145.000 1.0 145
8.22 Built or covered ditch 0,5x0,5h m 3.900 137.5 536
8.23 Vegetalized platform m2 2.250 750 1 688
8.24 Sowing - Plantation of trees and shrubs LS 125.000 1.0 125
21 999 314
TOTAL I 315 155 4 502

Unforeseen & technical risks 10% 31 515 450
TOTAL CIVIL WORKS 346 670 4 952

Table 4.35: Detailed Costing for Main Electro-Mechanical Works (MEMW)

COST TOTAL
N° ITEMS UNIT
KESx10^3
QTY
KESx10^3
TOTAL kUS$
II MAIN ELECTRO MECHANICAL WORKS (MEMW)
Supply of 2 Pelton / generator with horizontal axis -
nominal discharge: 1.25 m3/s, head 155 m - Capacity
1 LS 73 149.9 1.0 73 150
2x1,420 MW including 2 butterfly valves ND 600 - PN25
equipped with a by-pass
Supply of an electric control panel for orders, protection
and automatism of the equipment including tele-signalling
2 LS 52 695.0 1.0 52 695
/ remote control, main transformer 23.000 kVA, MV/11
kV and auxiliary transformer 50 kVA, 11 kV/400V
3 Connection with the 11kV line LS 1 258.4 1.0 1 258
4 Tests on site LS 3 619.0 1.0 3 619
5 Start-up of the equipment LS 2 516.9 1.0 2 517
133 239 1 903
Unforeseen and technical risks 5% 6 662 95
TOTAL MAIN ELECTRO MECHANICAL
139 901 1 999
WORKS
Table 4.36: Detailed Costing for Electrical Network (EN)
COST TOTAL
N° ITEMS UNIT
KESx10^3
QTY
KESx10^3
TOTAL kUS$
III ELECTRICAL NETWORK (11 kV LINE)
TOTAL III 27 585 394
Unforeseen and technical risks 5% 1 379 20
TOTAL 11 KV LINE + LV NETWORK 28 964 414

5 RURAL ELECTRIFICATION PLAN

5.1 Rural power demand
It was shown in chapter 3 that the national grid managed by KPLC has been intensively
extended in the project area and most localities and trading centres are (or will be very soon)
connected to the grid or located at less than 3km from the grid. Only the small and less
financially attractive localities (remote location, low commercial activities, lack of financial
capacity to contribute to the initial investment and to afford electricity tariff, even social) may
not be connected soon.
For those reasons, extending the network lines to supply those remaining non-electrified
settlements has not been considered within the Gura SHP project as they could be better
targeted by solar electrification projects.
Therefore the total power demand presented in chapter 3 is coming from the 4 selected tea
factories only, as summarised in the table below:
Table 5.1: Key data on power demand
Input Data Gathuthi Gitugi Iria Ini Chinga
Division Tetu Othaya Othaya Othaya
Total energy demand MWh 1,621 1,919 2,248 2,771
Total peak load kW 519 530 557 629
Transformer kVA 1000 1000 1000 1000
Number of phases 3 3 3 3
Distance to SHP scheme km 5.5 5 11 24
5.2 Spatial layout

Before starting any system design, the geographic representation of the power demand is
extremely important to draw the most economical electrical distribution network between the
power generation point(s) and the load points.
A Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used to localise the SHP power plant, the
tea factories, the villages and trading centres, the access roads and the existing KPLC
network. The developed GIS has allow the optimisation of the lengths/sections of the lines
from the powerhouse to each step-down transformer at entrance of tea factories. It has also
been used to represent and compare the various grid connection scenarios. The GIS map given
in Annex has been prepared with data collected from field surveys (GPS points), tea factories,
REA database and KPLC.
In the case of Gura SHP project, the proposed grid connection scenario (cf. chapter 2) requires
the investment in new dedicated MV lines between the SHP powerhouse and the 4 tea
factories, independent from the existing MV network operated by KPLC. One of these 11kV
lines from KPLC comes at less than 0.5km from the powerhouse.
As shown on the GIS map, one road goes to Gathuthi factory located at about 5km from the
powerhouse, while the 3 other factories are positioned on another road. Gitugi, Iria Ini and
Chinga are respectively at 5km, 11km and 24km from the powerhouse.

5.3 Preliminary network design

5.3.1 Main MV line
In the retained scenario described in chapter 2.2, 4 feeders will start from the powerhouse:
- one feeder of 5.5km along one road to reach Gathuthi factory (3x 50 mm² ABC),
- one feeder of 5km along the second road to reach Gitugi factory (3x 50 mm² ABC),
- one feeder of 24km along the same road to reach the 2 furthest factories Iria-Ini and
Chinga (3x 95 mm² ABC),
- one feeder of 500m along the same road to interconnect with KPLC network (3x 95
mm² ACSR).
The total length of MV line between the powerhouse and the tea factories is 35km, following
the existing track roads for simple land access and easy maintenance reasons.
Given the maximum peak power to transit in the lines, the electrical losses have been
calculated (cf. § 2.2.3). The 3 conductors will be supported by 11m poles spaced out by 130m.
5.4 Electrical configuration

The next figure illustrates schematically the electrical network interconnecting the Gura SHP,
the 4 tea factories and the existing KPLC grid.
Figure 5.1: One-line electrical diagram for Gura SHP project
Gura
SHP
Gathuthi
Tea
Auxiliaries
Factory
Gitugi
Tea
Factory
Iria Ini Chinga
Tea Tea
Factory Factory
11 kV (new line)
11 kV (KPLC existing line)
5.5 Preliminary Costing

The next table summarises the estimated investment budget for the MV line between the
hydropower source and the tea factories and leads to 11,422$ per km of 11kV line.

Table 5.2: Preliminary costing for MV network

11kV line Cost ($)
KPLC 7,547
Gathuthi 60,915
Gitugi 55,941
Iria Ini + Chinga 269,671
Total MV lines 394,074
The next table gives more details on electrical network equipments, indicative quantities and
estimated costing for the electrification of tea factories.

Table 5.3: Detailed costing for 11kV lines (USD)

KPLC Gathuthi Gitugi Iria Ini + Chinga Total
11 KV Line Unit Price Unit Qty Total Qty Total Qty Total Qty Total Qty Total
Alu cable 50mm² 1.02 ml 0 0 18,000 18,270 16,000 16,240 0 0 34,000 34,510
Alu cable 95mm² 1.02 ml 2,000 2,030 0 0 0 0 77,000 78,155 79,000 80,183
joint sleeve 3.63 set 4 15 36 131 32 116 154 558 226 819
Treated wood pole - 11m 261.00 per pole 4 1,044 44 11,484 40 10,440 194 50,634 282 73,602
suspension equipment 362.50 per pole 4 1,450 44 15,950 40 14,500 194 70,325 282 102,225
Reinforced concrete 108.75 per pole 4 435 44 4,785 40 4,350 194 21,098 282 30,668
11m pole (stop-end) - 2 HEA 240 1,740 per stop 1 1,740 4 6,960 4 6,960 19 33,060 28 48,720
stop-end pole equipment 616.25 per stop 1 616 4 2,465 4 2,465 19 11,709 28 17,255
Reinforced concrete (stop-end) 217.50 per stop 1 218 4 870 4 870 19 4,133 28 6,090
TOTAL USD 7,547 60,915 55,941 269,671 394,074

6 ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

6.1 Detailed Study Report
As per contractual Terms of References, an Environmental and Social Impact
Assessment of the site has been undertaken by IED and a local subcontractor (Que
Energy Ltd) in accordance to the prevailing Environmental Legislation in Kenya.
The expected environmental and social impacts of developing the site have been
identified and an environmental management plan to mitigate any identified negative
impacts of developing the site has been provided. The Environmental and Social Impact
Assessment report also includes an overview of the range and depth of environmental
and social issues inherent in developing the small hydro site, including possible
conflicts and identify categories of affected groups, downstream impact on the river
flow on socio-economic activities such as irrigation, fishery resources, drinking water
and land use as well as any scale of displacements, if any, resulting from implementing
the Gura Small Hydro Power.
The ESIA Report is a separate document provided in annex and it shall be presented to
the respective National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA) in Kenya for
approval and certification.
6.2 Preliminary Conclusions

The construction of a Small Hydropower Plant (SHP) of 2.8 MW on Gura river shall
include several components (weir, waterway, forebay tank, penstock, powerhouse,
electrical network) that have in some extend impacts on the population and environment
in the surrounding area. 5 villages and about 60 hectares of land (mainly agricultural
crops) are concerned and have been surveyed by the ESIA team.
Some direct positive impacts have been identified for the project area as job creation,
clean electricity supply for local industry and communities, road network, security.
The main potential negative impacts which require adequate preventive / mitigation
measures include:
• Vegetation cover degradation caused by the removal of trees from the intake
and canal route within the forest,
• Removal of vegetation and clearance from canal route, power house and forebay
sites along farms, some with tea bushes,
• The community expressed safety concerns over having an open waterway canal,
• There are significant risks of pollution of the abstraction points for construction
water,
• Risks of pollution from oil spills, waste disposal of oils, grease etc from
construction equipment and activities,
• Risks of pollution from the spoiling of excess excavation materials and from
dust from construction activities.
The principal mitigation measures included in the ESIA plan are:

• Creation of a tree nursery. Initiate a trees nursery and tree planting programme
in collaboration with the tea factories, the Kenya Forestry Service and relevant
government organs, financiers and experts,
• Undertake top-soiling and grassing programme for any access road reserve,
• Develop and document Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), schedules and
supervision guidelines for the project for controlling the risks from oil spills, dust,
water abstraction for construction etc,
• Address safety concerns of the community for waterway canal crossings either
through covering of the canals or provision of specific crossings both for humans
and livestock,
• Regular interaction and discussions with the community. A position of
environmental manager/officer shall be created during construction to oversee to
oversee environment and social management of re-planting of trees and other
vegetation along the canal route, the recovery of any eroded areas, enhanced safety
measures and general liaison with the community during and post construction
period.
Environment Impact Statement (EIS) prepared according to the national EIA guidelines
shall be submitted to the Executive Director of NEMA.
6.3 CO2 Impact

6.3.1 Emission reduction for Igara tea factory
Gathuthi, Gitugi, Iria-Ini and Chinga tea factories is connected to the national grid and
use backup diesel generators during power outages or low grid quality. Total
consumptions of grid electricity and fuel for backup gensets have been calculated in
Chapter 3. To assess the CO2 reduction impact when interconnecting the factory to a
hydropower plant, we apply the electricity emission factor of 0.8 tCO2/MWh as
substitution of diesel and the electricity emission factor 0.5223 tCO2/MWh as
substitution of the grid electricity.
The final calculation gives a emission reduction of 11,450 tCO2 per year for the four tea
factories, that can be valued at a price of 14 $ / ton of CO2 emission.
An updated status of carbon market is given hereafter.
6.3.2 Overview of the carbon market

Global carbon markets are worth €40 billion in 2007, up by 80 percent from 2006. The
total traded volume increased by 64 percent from 1.6 Gt (1.6 billion tonnes) in 2006 to
2.7 Gt in 2007.
According to Point Carbon's Carbon Market Survey 2008 entitled "Carbon 2008: Post-
2012 is now", the CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) market increased to 947 Mt
and €12bn in 2007. This is an increase of 68 percent in volume terms, and a staggering
200 percent in value terms from 2006, constituting 35 percent of the physical market
and 29 percent of the financial market.
The market for secondary trading of CDM credits is the fastest growing segment. From
limited activity at the start of the year, over 2007 the market saw around 300 Mt of

sCER (Certified Emission Reductions) trades, much of this related to EUA-sCER

swaps.
Huge evolution in the carbon finance are anticipated in the years coming, leading to
new post2012 agreements due to be reached in Copenhagen 2009. Therefore, any
accurate analysis and selling strategy for a particular project needs a more detailed
study.
The work performed under the EATTA study corresponds to the pre-feasibility of the
CDM qualification.
The client may choose to register his project and the emission reductions as CER
(Certified Emissions Reductions of the CDM) or VER (Verified Emissions Reductions).
Additional step after documentation completion is to choose who to sign an ERPA with
(Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement), either one of the major carbon buyers or on
the different niches of the voluntary market13.
6.3.3 CERs Valorisation of the EATTA projects

The selling price of the emission reductions will depend on each mini hydro project
intrinsic characteristics and the selling strategy.
Projects with high social and development impact, can be labeled as Gold Standard
CER or VER and carry a premium price (up to ~20 euros)
Given the positive local impacts on electrification and poverty reduction, the project
may qualify under a label, benefiting then from a premium price. Labels for Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) projects are : Gold Standard (GS for VER and CER);
Voluntary Carbon Standard 2007 (VCS 2007) ; VER+ ; Voluntary Offset Standard
(VOS) ; Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)
A comparison of the different standards is available in "Making Sense of the Voluntary
Carbon Market - A Comparison of Carbon Offset Standards". The study has been
written by Anja Kollmuss and Clifford Polycarp from the Stockholm Environment
Institute and Helge Zink from Tricorona. The report and the executive summary can be
downloaded from SEI-US’s website: http://www.sei-us.org/offset_standard_report.html
6.3.4 VER market

Huge evolution are anticipated on the VER market as different code of best practices
are reflecting the buyer’s need, such as DEFRA14 or ADEME. More and more carbon
buyer’s are asking for CDM projects with a label (mostly Gold Standard) to ensure
transparency.
Indeed, according to the Point Carbon 2008 survey, voluntary market is small and non-
transparent. Only 10 percent of the respondents consider the voluntary market to be
transparent, yet 50 percent think it is more mature now than one year ago.
13
Buyers may be MDG Carbon Facility, World Bank Funds, Action Carbone, Atmosfair, My Climate,
Eco-Securities, AHL Carbono ; Mitsubishi Securities…
14
The Code initially covers only Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs), that are compliant with the
Kyoto Protocol. See
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/uk/carbonoffset/codeofpractice.htm

Differences between the Gold Standard for CDM projects and the Gold Standard for
voluntary offsets („Gold Standard VER“) are listed at:
http://www.cdmgoldstandard.org/uploads/file/differences_GS-CER_VER.pdf
Possibilities to engage the project on the VER market should be studied in a subsequent
study once mini hydro plant engineering details and rural electrification plan are
available.
6.3.5 Recommendations on next steps

Special assistance is usually needed to register a project under the CDM or on the VER
market.
Various international donors (such as UNDP and MDG Carbon Facility, World Bank,
etc) or private brokers and investors may propose financial assistance.
Gold Standard projects under the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation
and voluntary offset markets are eligible for development assistance and partnership
with Carbon Asset Management Sweden AB and the Carbon Asset Management Gold
Standard Fund http://www.camgoldstandard.com/application.php
Normally, the carbon buyer only pays for the carbon, once the savings are reality, and
measured, meaning year after year. However, in the case of the voluntary buyer (CERs
or VERs), who is also focused on the development impact, it is possible to collect
advance payments which will enable the implementation of development activities.

7 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
The aim of this section is conduct a simulation of what would be the profitability of the
project for a Project Developer, with an investment in the 2.8 MW Gura Small Hydro
Power project. The simulation therefore assesses what is the profitability for the Project
Developer (Return on Equity) on the Gura project, in a real life simulation of taxes and
loan values.
It is assumed that the development of Gura would be undertaken via a Build-Own-
Operated (BOO) company which will bring the equity required for the development of
the project. The set up of this company has still to be fixed.
The section firstly presents the model and the assumptions for running the model. The
results are then presented and indicate the project’s profitability ratios, and sensitivity
studies are carried to assess the level of risk and uncertainty.
7.1 Decision Criteria

The criterion used for assessing the profitability of the Gura SHP is the Return on
Equity (ROE):
• It is assumed that the income after taxes is distributed as dividend among the equity
investors (provided, of course, that the income is positive). At the end of the period
(20 years in the case of this study), the investors will have to settle outstanding
liabilities if any. Multiplying the equity paid in by –1 and then adding for each year
of 20 years period the equity paid in, the received dividend payment and, at the end
of the 20 years period, the difference between the current assets and the current
liabilities yields the net income stream of the investor. The rate of return on equity
(ROE) is calculated as the IRR of the net income stream.
• It is considered that investors will be paid the residual book value of the fixed assets
at the end of the period.
It should be noted that ROE calculation depends on the period of study (20 years in our
case). Also, the SHP will still have an economic operating life for a number of years to
come and be a profitable asset. It is possible that equity can be resold to other equity
investors at a negotiated market price, above the simple residual book value. The earlier
the study period ends, the larger the difference between the ROE with and without the
residual value is. Only if the study period ends after 15 years or more years is the
difference too small to be of importance. As we are in this case (20 years), we have
considered a simple residual book value in the model.
With the above conditions, the Return on Equity (ROE) of the investors, in percent, is
the value of t for which the Net Present Value (NPV) of the investors equals zero.
CFn
NPV = ∑1
N
(1 + t ) n
With:

NPV = Net Present Value of the Investors,

CF = Investor cash flows over the project’s lifetime,
N = number of years of calculation = project’s lifetime,
t = discount rate of the analysis.
The Return on Equity (ROE) will be calculated for the BOO company alone and for the
BOO company + the tea factory: in the second case, the savings on the electricity bill
for the tea factory (which will shift from diesel electricity to hydro electricity) are
considered as a benefit and in the first they are not considered.
For the BOO Company
All the benefits of the SHP project come from the sales of power to KPLC. Thus, the
cash flows are computed as follows:
CFn =PPA+ EL
CFn = Investor cash flow in year n

PPA = Revenues generated via PPA with KPLC
EL = Equity injection and loan reimbursement
(note: PPA, EL are all in year n)
For the BOO Company + the Tea factory
The benefits of the SHP project come from the sales of power to KPLC and from the
saving resulting the shift from diesel electricity to hydro electricity. Thus, the cash
flows are computed as follows:
CFn =PPA+ EL + S
CFn = Investor cash flow in year n

PPA = Revenues generated via PPA with KPLC
S = Savings for the Tea factory
EL = Equity injection and loan reimbursement
(note: PPA, EL are all in year n)
7.2 Presentation of the financial model

IED runs an in-house developed financial model for project appraisal. This model runs
on Excel and covers all financial and fiscal aspects of hydropower plant development.

Figure 7.1: Structure of Financial Model
Investment costs Contingencies Tax rates
INTPUTS
Energy placement PPA price and Insurance rates
forecast duration
Financial scheme Exchange rates

Loan / grant
(debt vs. equity characteristics
and grant) Inflation rates
A NNUA L PROJECT CA SH FLOWS : A NNUA L SHA REHOLDER CA SH FLOWS :

- Investment costs expe nditures - Equity injections
CALCULATIONS
- Work ing capital req. - Retained earnings and taxes

- Operating expenditures + Residual value
- Insurance expenditures + Dividends
- Financial expenditures
- Tax expenditures
+ Sales receipts
+ Equity / Grant / Debt injections
Project IRR IRR for investor
The model computes investment costs and revenue forecasts, based on the following
inputs:
Macroeconomic Parameters
The user can specify the KES/USD exchange rate during the base year, the local rate of
inflation from y+1 onward and the foreign rate of inflation from y+1 onward. We have
assumed a 2% inflation rate for both currencies. It should be pointed out that between
the start and the end of the study, the Consultant has faced significant variation of the
KES/USD exchange rate. All cost have been established on basis of January 2008
exchange rate (1 $ = 70 KES).
Time Parameters
All parameters are considered on yearly basis. It is assumed that construction works will
be carried out in year 1 and finished at the end of year 1, and that start of Commercial
Operation is assumed as right after the end of the construction period. The Length of the
study period is 20 years.
Investment Costs and Contingencies
From chapter 4.9 (Cost Estimate), the investment costs for the Gura SHP are identified.
Provisions have been made to include access roads and MV lines in the costing – as
sensitivity analyses can easily be run to modify the Investment costs. The engineering
services during construction are estimated to be at 10% of the investment costs of the
project. The investment costs presented below include contingencies, which are the
safety margin that the Bill of Quantities takes into consideration to adjust the unit prices
(in order to reflect more accurate investment costs). The E&M costs are based on
indicative prices provided by potential suppliers.
Contingencies also include insurance cost related to the construction phase which could
be taken by the BOO company:

• Construction all risk insurance: a typical cost would be 0.5% of the investment
value of civil works, electro-mechanical equipment and the MV line at the end of
construction. The insurance premium is due at the start of construction.
• Advance loss of profit. This is an insurance against delays of construction and the
subsequent later start of commercial operation. A typical cost would be 0.8% of the
sales value in the first full year of commercial operation, which would represent for
Gura less than 0.2% of the total investment cost. To be paid at the start of
construction for one year.
Table 7.1: Synthetic investment costs for Gura
ITEMS GURA SHP
KESx10^3 US $x10^3
A CONTRACTED / CONSTRUCTION WORKS 515 536 7 365
SUB-TOTAL "1" CIVIL WORKS 346 670 4 952
SUB-TOTAL "2" MAIN ELECTRO-MECHANICAL WORKS 139 901 1 999
SUB-TOTAL "3" ELECTRICAL NETWORK 28 964 414
B. ENGINEERING SERVICES 51 364 734
C. CONTINGENCIES 21 350 305
US$ COST/kW 2 966
Project Development Costs

The project development costs cover the remaining studies, the cost of various
application/certificates (WRMA application (42,000 KES ~600 $) and WRMA permit
(50,000 KES ~700 $), certificate of NEMA (0.1% of project cost ~$ 7,500), ERC
License ( ~200,000 KES ~3,000$), cost to establish a Build-Own-Operated (BOO)
company (~50,000 $) and the certification from UNFCCC for the CO2 benefits
(~$100,000): as a global estimates, we’ll take: $175,000.
Operation and maintenance Costs
Operation and Maintenance costs comprise Operation costs of the BOO company,
maintenance costs of Gura SHP, O&M costs of the MV line. In the model, they are
taken as 2.5% of the investment value per year.
In addition, different insurances could be adopted by the BOO company.
• Insurance against damages: a typical cost would be 0.15% per year of the
investment value.
• Insurance against loss of profit: a typical cost would be 0.25% per year of the annual
sales value corresponding to less than 0.1% per year of the investment value.
• Other insurances could be considered: on equity paid in for investment costs, on
disbursements of commercial loans … etc.
The above are only baseline assumptions and would have to be adjusted for the actual
situation once the BOO company will be set and after asking insurance companies for
rates in the specific context under consideration. In the model, they are taken as 0.5% of
the investment value per year.
Generation, Sales and Sales Price
The model assumes that the PPA will fix the sales price per kWh to be paid every year
of operation. The value adopted for the PPA in the base case scenario is the PPA tariff

applied between KenGen and KPLC (2.36 KES/kWh). Usually, this tariff apply for HV
power while in our case, this is for MV power. It can be considered that it is a very
conservative value and that sensitivity studies will be carried.
Financing
Equity is assumed to cover 35% of total investment project costs. There is no Grant
component on investment costs in the base case scenario.
A loan has been assumed to finance the investment project costs that are not financed by
grant or equity. The loan is in US$. This loan finances the costs associated with the
access road, the construction costs of the plant, the MV line and all other project
development costs that are not covered by equity or grant. The conditions for the loans
are as follows:
- Loan duration and grace period: repayment over 7 years; with a grace period of 1
year (included in the 7 years).
- Commitment fees are assumed to be 0.85% of the loan amount.
- Front-end-fees cover the arranger fee, the provision, the participation commission
and the agent fee. They amount to 1% of the loan amount.
- Timing of disbursements: the disbursements are made in 12-month intervals; i.e.
during year 1.
- Repayments are made every year in equal instalments.
In case of negative cumulated cash flow, the BOO Company will be charged an 8%
interest rate on negative cash flow.
Depreciation
Investment costs are depreciated, all in straight line.
- Electromechanical equipment, engineering services, and the MV line are
depreciated over 20 years
- Civil works are depreciated over 30 years
Tax
The tax system in Kenya that is applicable to Mini Hydro Power Plants is as defined in
the Energy Act, 2006. The establishment of an appropriate financing and fiscal policy
framework for Renewable Energy Technology investments is one of the objectives of
the Government. Nevertheless, there is a not yet specific Income tax holiday for Small
hydro power projects, or no accelerated depreciation possibility.
In the model, Corporate Tax will be taken at 30%. As sensitivity study, Tax holidays on
dividend incomes for 7 years will be carried.
A provision for Licensing fees and Tax to the Local Authorities should be considered.
In the model, they will be taken at 1% of annual revenues.
Carbon revenue
The tea factories are connected to the national grid. We apply the electricity emission
factor of 0.8 tCO2/MWh as substitution of diesel and the electricity emission factor of
0.6396 tCO2/MWh as substitution of the grid electricity; and a price of 14 $ / ton of CO2

emission reduction. This price is closed to the actual CER market price, and lower than
Volontary Emissions Reduction (VER) market price. On the VER market, buyers are
willing to pay a higher price as long as the project has positive local benefits in addition
to CO2 emission reduction. This is the case for the Gura small hydropower as it will
contribute to local employment through the tea factories and also improve (in the long
term) the income of small tea growers who will be the ultimate owners of the BOO
company. Given these characteristics the BOO should seek for partnership with VER
buyers or with consultancy who, in return from the sell of VER will carry out in
partnership with the tea factories part of the remaining development activities and other
services.
Inflation
Inflation have been taken at 2%, both in US$ and in KES. As the revenues are solely in
KES, and the investment are in US$ (foreign loan in US$), there is a risk of fluctuating
inflation and therefore the PPA tariff should be indexed on the inflation rate.
7.3 Results of the financial analysis

The financial analysis has been done:
- for the baseline scenario – i.e. with the hypothesis & assumption described in the
previous paragraph,
- for pessimistic scenario – i.e. some of the actual conditions are less favourable
than in the baseline scenario ;
- for optimistic scenario – i.e. some of the actual conditions are more favourable
than in the baseline scenario.
7.3.1 Baseline scenario

Total Cost 8 752 k$
Equity 3 063 k$
Annual Energy produced 17 866 MWh (average year)
Return on Equity for BOO company 13.3%
Return on Equity for BOO company + 4TFs 14.6%
In the baseline scenario, the cash flow happens to be negative until the end of the
repayment period. The minimum cumulated cash flow for the BOO company is around
– 700 k$. The pay-back period is about 12 years.

Figure 7.2: Cash Flow over 10 years
Cash Flow
1 500
1 000
Cask Flow ($)
500
Cumulated Cash
Flow (k$)
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
‐500
‐1 000
7.3.2 Pessimistic cases

Increase of 20% of the project investment cost
Total Cost 10 433 k$
Equity 3 652 k$
Less attractive financing conditions (40% equity, loan interest 8%, repayment period 5
years):
Total Cost 8 752 k$
Equity 3 063 k$
Low hydrology in year 2, 3 and 4:

Total Cost 8 752 k$
Equity 3 063 k$
Annual Energy produced 17 000 MWh (dry year)

One year delay payment on the PPA:

Total Cost 8 752 k$
Equity 3 063 k$
No CO2 revenues:
Total Cost 8 752 k$
Equity 3 063 k$
Worst case scenario:

In the worst case scenario, there is an increase of 20% of the project investment cost, no
CO2 revenues and one year delay payment on the PPA.
Total Cost 10 433 k$
Equity 3 652 k$
7.3.3 Optimistic cases

Decrease of 20% of the project investment cost
Total Cost 7 072 k$
Equity 2 475 k$
High hydrology in year 2, 3 and 4:
Total Cost 8 752 k$
Equity 3 063 k$
Annual Energy produced 19 000 MWh (rainy year)
Better CO2 revenues (30$/ton instead of 14 $/ton):
Total Cost 8 752 k$
Equity 3 063 k$

More attractive financing conditions (30% equity, loan interest 6%, repayment period
10 years):
Total Cost 8 752 k$
Equity 2 626 k$
In this scenario, the cash flow happens to be always positive until the end of the
repayment period.
1 200 Cash Flow

1 000
800 Cask Flow ($)
600
Cumulated Cash
Flow (k$)
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Most optimistic scenario:

In the most optimistic scenario, there is a decrease of 20% of the project investment
cost, higher CO2 revenues 30$/tCO2) a more attractive financing package (30% equity,
10 years loans, 6% interest rate).
Total Cost 7 072 k$

Equity 2 121 k$
7.3.4 Sensitivity study on the PPA tariff with KPLC

The 2.36 KES/kWh used in the baseline scenario is very conservative, as it represents
the actual tariff applied between KenGen and KPLC for high voltage power. The
Ministry will shortly published special feed-in tariff for renewable energies sources,
which where not known at the time of the study. The sensitivity study below illustrate
what would be the impact on the Return on Equity for various feed-in tariffs. It should
be noted that 5 KES/kWh is closed to the actual feed in tariff for small hydro power

plants which has been adopted in Uganda, and in that case the RoE would be 21.4%
with the other hypothesis of the baseline scenario.
Figure 7.3: Return on Equity (RoE) for various PPA tariffs (feed-in tariffs)
ROE depending on the PPA with KPLC

25,0% (Ksh / kWh)
23,0%
21,0%
19,0%
17,0%
15,0%
13,0%
2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00
7.3.5 Other benefits from the project

In addition to an attractive RoE, the tea factories will also have from indirect benefits,
including an improved quality of service which will result in less power shortage, and
therefore less interruption in the tea processing which a better quality. These benefits
are not quantified in the financial analysis but would of importance for the tea factories.

7.4 Conclusions
These results show that in terms of financial returns which the site could yield, we are in
an attractive situation in view of the returns which would normally be expected.
The Project is financially viable as returns on equity for BOO Company or BOO
Company together with Tea factories are 13.3% and 14.6% respectively, in the baseline
scenario. At around 15% return on equity even a private investor could be “just”
interested. Furthermore, even in the worst case scenario, the return on equity is still
positive and thus, financial risks are perceived to be minimal. The negative cash flow
during repayment period entails seeking loans from other sources or negotiating a
longer payback period. The attractiveness of the project would further increase if the
KPLC tariff increased from the current 2.36 KES/kWh, e.g., at 4 KES/kWh, the return
on equity is around 21,4%.
There no significant difference in terms of attractiveness when considering the global
return for both the BOO company and the tea factories, or the BOO company alone.
This situation results from the little saving on diesel costs actually supported by the four
KTDA factories.
In all events, it would seem that the attractiveness of the project would be marginally
improved with a more attractive financial package but the impact on the cash flow
would be very significant as it would result in a positive cash flow.
The investment cost of 2,966 $/kW could be decreased if the tea factories take the
responsibility to do part of the civil work or at least the excavation work.
The RoE would be more significantly improved by getting a good CO2 price. This
would be possible on the VER market, as buyers are willing to pay for a higher price if
social benefits can be added to the avoiding CO2 emission. Given these characteristics
the BOO should seek for partnership with VER buyers or with consultancy who, in
return from the sell of VER will carry out in partnership with the tea factories part of the
remaining development activities and other services.
On the technical side, the project is technically simple but would require some
management skills to operate the resulting power systems. The loss of revenue due to
current interruptions in power supply resulting in lower quality tea and the fact that this
is less likely to happen once the SHP power plant is in place will be an indirect benefit
of the Gura Small Hydro power project, which is not computed in the RoE.
As a conclusion, the four KTDA tea factories should be interested to develop the Gura
SHP project, being alone as single developer or in association with a private developer
as the required equity is quite high (~3 M$ in the baseline scenario) compare with their
actual cumulated assets of 14 M$ for the 4 Tea factories.

8 ANNEXES

Feasibility Study Report On Gura SHP

Transféré par

Informations du document

Description originale:

Titre original

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Feasibility Study Report On Gura SHP

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

SMALL HYDRO FOR GREENING

THE TEA INDUSTRY IN EASTERN

GURA SMALL HYDROPOWER

Feasibility Study Report

Final – March 2008

IED reference: 2007/022/EATTA

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY __________________________________ 14

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 3

4.2.1 Geology _________________________________________________ 56

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 4

7 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ________________________________ 123

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 5

EATTA East African Tea Trade Association

LV – MV – HV low – medium – high voltage

Exchange rate in 15 February 2008: In Kenya: 1 USD = 70 KES

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 6

LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 7

2. Institutional Framework & Connection Schemes

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 8

3. Demand Assessment and Load Forecast

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 9

4. SHP Technical Design

Table 4.32: General Summary of Project Costs

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 11

5. Rural Electrification Plan

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 12

6. Environmental and social impact assessment

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 13

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 14

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 15

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 16

Salient features: GURA SHP

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 17

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 18

1.2 Work Activities

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 19

5. Legal and Regulatory Framework

1.3 Project Background

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 20

1.3.2 Presentation of tea sector

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 21

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 22

Map 1.2: Tea Growing Districts of Kenya and project zone

1.3.3 Power supply and Rural Electrification plan

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 23

In 1997, Kenya’s Electric Power Act allowed independent producers to supply

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 24

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 25

2 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK & CONNECTION

2.1.2 Gura SHP Connection scheme

2.1.3 Legal and regulatory context

2.1.4 KPLC point of view

2.1.5 Investors and operators

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 27

- The tea factories as promoters, shareholders, operators and/or consumers

2.2 Grid Connection Scheme Development

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 28

2.2.2 Existing power supply

The OTHAYA substation also supplies the Sagana Falls 11 kV feeder.

IED – Innovation Energie Développement 29