Management Information Systems Term Paper

Artificial Intelligence into the Future

Submitted by:

Dhiru Rabha

10BM60024

VGSoM 2010-2012

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Abstract:

The ability to think is what renders man the superiority over all other beasts and animals. He can think for
himself, understand his needs and use his intelligence to communicate verbally with others from the
same species. He is also inquisitive by nature and it is this innate desire to constantly learn and explore
newer horizons that has led to space explorations and Genetic science, to nano-particle research and the
possibility of the String theory. It is perhaps to quench his thirst to innovate that man now wants to
simulate his intelligence in machines. This branch of science whereby human cognition is attempted to be
transferred to a machine is referred to as Artificial Intelligence. With the advent of web-enabled
infrastructure and rapid advancements in technology, AI today finds extensive application. The objective
of this paper is to understand how AI application could impact mainstream businesses in the near future.

Motivation:

“Cogito ergo sum.”

René Descartes, the noted French philosopher, mathematician, physicist and writer is often credited with
the most famous and potent sentence in philosophy, which is Latin for “I think, therefore I am”. It is this
ability of man to analyze and reflect that renders him superior to all other life forms. But would it not be
more than just amazing to see this thought process simulated in a machine? If machines could think, we
could be living the future, apart from of course large scale reduction of human effort and labour.

The term Artificial Intelligence was first coined by John McCarthy in 1956; he defined it as “the science
and engineering of making intelligent machines”. AI research today is a specialized discipline of
engineering that aims to simulate human cognition skills like decision-making, natural language
processing, neural networks, reasoning, pattern recognition and speech recognition, to name a few. AI is
used by the military for autonomous control and target identification, in hospitals for efficient operations,
to help small children with disabilities. AI can also be used in weather forecasting, in legal systems to
speed up legal processes, computer games and robotic pets. It is used in big organizations dealing with

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vast amounts of data such as banks, hospitals and insurances. Research says AI could also be used to
predict customer behavior and to detect trends.

History of Artificial Intelligence:

Artificial Intelligence is a new field of Computer Science that focuses on creating „intelligent‟ or „smart‟
machines that can think for themselves. The origin of the concept of AI can be traced back to the ancient
Egyptians. But in the modern times, Artificial Intelligence started developing after the invention of the
electronic computer in the early 1940s and with Alan Turing‟s Theory of Computation. It also helped that
there were developments in Neural Sciences and Information Technology simultaneously. The term AI
was first used by McCarthy at a conference in Dartmouth College in 1956 and since then, AI research has
come a long way. Today AI has come out of science fiction books and become a reality.

Fundamentals of Artificial Intelligence:

“Intelligence” in humans is very complex in itself and is also very difficult to study and understand.
Artificial Intelligence is an attempt to make this “intelligence” an intrinsic characteristic of smart machines
so that they can think and act like human beings. AI may be of two types:

 Strong AI
This research basically deals with the creation of some computer-based artificial intelligence that
can truly reason and solve problems. This type of AI is said to be sentient or self-aware.

 Weak AI
This research, on the other hand, deals with the creation of some form of computer-based
artificial intelligence that can act intelligently but does not possess true sentience. Some common
applications of weak AI are computer simulations and advancements in natural language.

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It is not easy to simulate the process of cognition in an inanimate robot or machine. But there are some
mathematical models and tools that come to our aid in dealing with Artificial Intelligence research.

Tools and Techniques used in AI Research:

There is no established unifying theory that researchers follow in Artificial Intelligence; in fact they
disagree about many issues. There is a long standing debate on whether AI research should be studied
under Psychology or Neurology, and if it is possible to describe intelligent behavior by using simple,
elegant mathematical principles of logic and optimization. If intelligence can be reproduced, then what
should be the approach? However, there are some mathematical tools that are used by Computer
Science engineers to solve some of the most difficult problems in Computing. These tools prove to be
equally helpful in AI research as well. Some of them are discussed below.

1. Search and Optimization

AI problems can be solved intelligently by searching through many possible solutions. However, a
simple search will pile up exorbitant amounts of data. This makes it imperative to use “heuristics”
or “rules of the thumb” to eliminate the choices that are unlikely to lead to the objective of the AI
research. In the 1990s a different type of search was developed, which was based on the
mathematical theory of “Optimization”. This form of optimization search is used in evolutionary
computing, like in swarm intelligence algorithms and evolutionary algorithms used in Genetic
research applications of AI.

2. Logic
Logic is used extensively in computer programming, knowledge representation and solving
problems. But it can also be used in specific domains of knowledge like Fuzzy systems and
higher Calculus. Fuzzy logic, especially, needs a special mention here. It is a version of first-order
logic which allows the truth of a statement to be represented as a value between 0 and 1, rather
than simply True (1) or False (0). Different forms of logic like propositional logic, default logic and
subjective logic, apart from Fuzzy logic, are used in AI research.

3. Probabilistic Methods for Uncertain Reasoning

There are many problems in AI research like reasoning, planning, learning, perception and
robotics that require the agent to operate with incomplete or uncertain information. In such cases,

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 probability theory and utility theory of economics for filtering, predicting and finding explanations
for stacks of data. Precise mathematical tools like decision theory, game theory and mechanism
design also can be used.

4. Classifiers and Statistical Learning Methods

Classifiers may be defined as functions that are used to determine the closest match between
patterns. They can be tuned according to different patterns or observations and this can be used
in AI. Some of the most widely used classifiers are neural network, Bayes classifier and decision
tree. Different statistical approaches are used to train the classifiers.

5. Neural Networks
These constitute a network of neurons and are basically of two main types, namely, Biological
neural networks and Artificial neural networks. Neural networks could be used for „intelligent
control‟ in robotics or in learning.

6. Control Theory
Control Theory is an interdisciplinary branch of Engineering and Math that help in dealing with the
behavior of dynamic systems. Stability, controllability, observability, control specifications and
robustness of the model are some of the criteria to analyse the dynamic behavior under study.
Control systems may be linear or non-linear. Control theory is used extensively in robotics.

7. Language
There are specialized languages like Prolog and Lisp that have been developed to augment
Artificial Intelligence research.

Application:

Research in the field of Artificial Intelligence has come a long way since the Dartmouth Conference in
th
1956. Today AI is not just the science fiction of the 19 century; it is a part of everyday lives in

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industrialized nations. It is applied in every possible field to help people make better use of information to
work smarter, not harder. Some common examples of the application of Artificial Intelligence are:

 Agriculture, Natural Resource Management and the Environment

There is a project called Farming 2020 going on at CSIRO‟s Autonomous Systems Laboratory
where a system of tiny network sensors are develop to be embedded around the farm and within
the cattle to monitor and control the herd‟s location, activity and well-being. These sensors are
low-cost and low-power and can communicate with each other. As a result, the farmers have
more information about the herd than he ever had.
This is just one example but AI is also applied to extract information about the weather and soil
conditions, to blast weeds automatically, which would reduce the costs of herbicide, take soil
tests, which would empower farmers with the knowledge of sowing the right crop at the right
place, to give relevant information leading to gains for the farmer, for better harvests in labour-
intensive crops and to reduce manual labour by using robots. AI is used in decision making
problems, flood risk management research, vision and remote sensing, in biological monitoring of
river quality and in water resource management.

 Artificial Nose and Taste

Artificial noses use AI to detect smells through sensors. These robotic applications can be used
to sniff out bugs, detect odour, sniff out mines and detect diseases like Diabetics and TB in
people. Now-a-days, these are also used to do market research in food, beverage, medical and
environmental applications by mimicking the human sense of smell through sensors.
The artificial taster is used to taste tea, wine and other food and beverages. Its use guarantees
that there is no bias in detecting the taste due to monotony or other personal reasons of a human
tea or wine or food taster.

 Astronomy and Space Exploration

Space exploration is not a possibility without AI. There have been lunar explorations as well as
Mars exploration where robotic rovers had been used extensively. Space shuttles, telescopes,
autonomous docking, space stations and satellites all use AI for probing space as well as for
other purposes. Robots are also used to explore the depths of the earth‟s crust.

 Automatic Programming

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 Automatic programming is simpler and easier to write than a conventional programming
language. With the application of AI, more number of automatic programs can be written in a
short period of time, which will save human effort and increase efficiency.
Henry Liberman developed Programming by example, which is a technique for teaching the
computer new behavior by demonstrating behavior on examples. The computer observes and
stores this in its system and generalizes a program that can be used in new examples.

 Medicine
Recently, the world‟s first robotic surgery was performed successfully on a Canadian man at the
Montreal General Hospital. There were two robots involved, one for anesthesia and the other to
use tools and perform movements considered too delicate for any human to match.

Fig: Montreal General Hospital

Apart from surgery, AI is also applied in diagnosis and point-of-care clinical decision support,
automated anesthesia support system, as used in the surgery at the Montreal Hospital, blood
tests and check-ups. AI can also be effectively used in maintaining a database of all the patients
who come for treatment or tests to a hospital, and this data can be used as and when required by
doctors and medical professionals across the world.

 Military
Robots can be used by the military for autonomous control and target identification, detecting
landmines with the help of sensors and other military applications like strategy.

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  Marketing, Customer Relations and E-Commerce
With the advent of the internet, information is now readily available for everyone. To add to that,
social networking sites and blogs help everyone to stay connected in the virtual world. In such a
connected world, AI can be used by marketers for insights to their brands. AI can be used to
analyze blogs and „consumer-generated media‟ to hear what is being said about new products,
aging brands and old advertisements. This helps the marketers understand the needs and
demands of the consumers, and thereby, meet that need with the right product at the right time.
Also, AI can be used in social networking sites to come up with newer ideas that can be helpful in
promoting or advertising different products.
These days a new term is being increasingly used-bot. Bot means a virtual robot that runs
automated tasks over the internet. They perform tasks that are simple and repetitive.

 Banking, Finance and Investing

AI brings a neural approach to the market. There are computer models that can recommend
investors to invest in some promising mutual funds while not in some others. This has been found
to be highly accurate. AI can also be used to pick stocks with the help of automatic algorithms,
which has led to an exploration of the stock market. It can be applied to analyze transactions in
multiple situations. Technology can be used for crunching error free figures much more
accurately and efficiently than a human being, and that too much faster.

Apart from these, AI can be applied in various other fields like scientific discoveries, autonomous vehicles
and robots, fraud detection and prevention, law enforcement and public safety, weather forecasting,
libraries, networks, petroleum exploration, intelligent tutoring systems, genetic research,
telecommunications, disaster management and gaming.

Future Scope:

Artificial Intelligence has tremendous scope for use in the future. With technological innovations in
systems and telecommunications, it is only a matter of years before AI will become an important part of
our lives. In the near future, more and more surgeries will be performed by robots, with doctors there only
for instructions. The stock market will have smarter investors who will grow richer with the help of the

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recommendations with the help of „smart programs‟, and gaming in the virtual world will not be limited to
the virtual space. Databases will be easier to scan by robots than by men. Labour costs will be saved by
using AI.

 Advanced Internet and Web Systems

 Machine Learning
 Intelligent User Interfaces
 Computational Neural Science and Neural Engineering
 Planning, Control and Reinforcement Learning
 Probabilistic Reasoning
 Speech and Natural Language Processing
 vision

Amongst the different possibilities and scopes of the application of Artificial Intelligence, the most
important area would be the field of robotics where it is used extensively, in controlling the degrees of
freedom, in autonomous control and in motion of parallel manipulators.

Constraints:

There are some challenges that AI has to overcome before becoming an inseparable part of our lives.
However, these constraints are very small compared to the benefits offered by its applications in
simplifying human lives. Some of these constraints are discussed in brief below.

1. Computational Challenges in AI
Many core AI tasks have proven to be computationally intractable. This inflexibility has to be
removed in order to get a hassle-free AI application so that we can enjoy the advantages of the
application of AI in our everyday tasks to make them easier and effortless.

2. Resource Limitations in Real-Time

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 Real-time responses and real-time systems have complex applications that require intelligent
behavior. There are also time-constraints in the environment where the AI application operates.
But for particularly critical assignments like surgery or medical aid, a real-time control system has
to be used which will enable delivery within the time-frame.

3. Reasoning, Planning and Learning Limitations

There may be limitations in the logical reasoning, planning and learning part of the application of
AI. Researchers as well as engineers should try and remove these shortcomings for AI to be
easily applicable in the near future.

Artificial Intelligence and Business in the Future:

“Profit is the ignition system of our economic engine.” ---------Charles Sawyer

Profit indeed is the primary driver of economy. It is the reason why product and service industries exist in
the first place, the reason why international relations are maintained and policies made. No organization
can claim that it has nothing to do with profit. As such, the use of AI as a technological marvel does not
make sense unless it helps businesses to profit. The objective of any business is always to make
optimum use of its resources and give maximum profits. AI is a highly complex branch of science and
research in this area is an emerging field. But for AI to be successfully applied in businesses, it has to be
easily available at a low cost. Fortunately, the boom in telecommunication and IT technology has brought
down costs drastically and as such, applying AI will become cost effective.

Artificial Intelligence has tremendous scope of being used in day-to-day life in the future, both by the
households as well as the corporate world. It reduces human effort and labour as now machines are not
„programmed‟ to perform a particular task. These machines are „intelligent machines‟ and can use their
own simulation to behave in a particular manner in a particular situation, given an input. The most
important uses of AI in a business house would be in determining the needs and wants of the consumer,
prediction of consumer behavior, scanning the internet for cues and using social networking sites to gain
an insight to both the known as well as the passive needs of the consumers. If marketers could predict
the life-cycle of a particular product, it could revolutionize the very concept of marketing. Also, huge
amounts of money could then be saved by marketing gurus to get the same outputs at lesser costs. This

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would automatically lead to reduction in costs incurred and as such, the profits would increase or
maximize, thereby fulfilling the very objective of the business to be there in the first place.

Another aspect where AI can be very useful to business is in finance and investment. Artificial Intelligence
enables computer models to accurately predict the stock market scenario, thereby making sure that the
user is making the right investment to gain profiting returns. Error-free calculations will save human effort
and give more accurate results and predictions.

Apart from this, AI also has a lot of scope in simplifying human labour and effort. If by thinking for
themselves, machines can perform the same tasks as human being much more faster and accurately,
then it leaves human beings with more time to focus their energy in something fruitful.

Conclusion:

Artificial Intelligence is no more just a Steven Spielberg movie where young David has feelings despite
being a „mecha‟; it has very much become a part of our lives. From weather forecasting to programming
to robotics to agriculture, Artificial Intelligence has today penetrated into almost all the fields. However, it
waits to be seen though how long it will take for AI to become an inseparable part of our lives.

The promise of AI in business is many-fold. There are certainly some constraints, but these constrains are
far too less and small compared to all the benefits that the application of Artificial Intelligence promises to
give us in the coming future.

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References:

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence (25/10/2010)

2. http://people.csail.mit.edu/psz/ftp/AIM82/ch1.html (25/10/2010)
3. http://robotzeitgeist.com/ (27/10/2010)

4. http://www.aaai.org/aitopics/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/AITopics/Applications (27/10/2010)
5. http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?arnumber=00087994&tag=1 (31/10/2010)
6. Siciliano B., Sciavicco L. and Villani L.(2009). Robotics: Modelling, Planning and
Control, Springer.

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