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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Real Estate and Planning Consulting

Senior Housing Market Analysis

Prepared for

Oak Park Township

April 2010

Prepared by

Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.


2707 Walnut Avenue
Evanston, IL 60201
847-864-8895 (Phone)
847-864-0103 (Fax)
www.kretchmerassociates.com
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.
Real Estate and Planning Consulting

2707 Walnut Avenue


Evanston, IL 60201
TEL 847-864-8895
FAX 847-864-0103
vsk@kretchmerassociates.com
www.kretchmerassociates.com

April 22, 2010

Mr. Gavin Morgan, Township Manager


Oak Park Township
105 S. Oak Park Avenue
Oak Park, IL 60302

Dear Mr. Morgan:

Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc. (VSKA) is pleased to submit this final report with
the analysis of the potential for additional senior housing in Oak Park.

Thank you for the opportunity to work on this interesting project for you.

Sincerely,

Valerie Sandler Kretchmer


President
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

I. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1

II. OAK PARK AND MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHICS 5

III. OAK PARK AND MARKET AREA HOUSING 13


CHARACTERISTICS

IV. SENIOR HOUSING SURVEY 27

V. DEMAND FOR ADDITIONAL SENIOR HOUSING 30


IN OAK PARK

VI. APPENDIX 36
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

I. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

A. Purpose of This Assignment

Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc. (VSKA) and Bernadette Schleis & Associates
(BSA), were hired by Oak Park Township to prepare a market analysis, including a
survey of seniors living in Oak Park, to determine whether there is a demand for
additional senior housing in Oak Park. At this time, no specific site was identified or
considered for new senior housing. VSKA conducted the following for this assignment:

 Met with Oak Park Township staff


 Visited all of the senior buildings in and near Oak Park and interviewed their
managers or marketing staff
 Contacted nearby communities to see if there are any planned senior buildings
 Contacted senior service providers in Oak Park
 Prepared a demographic analysis of the senior population in and near Oak Park
 Conducted a telephone survey of Oak Park seniors not currently living in
designated senior housing
 Determined the demand for additional senior housing by type in Oak Park.

The results of these elements are incorporated into this report.

B. Summary

1. Oak Park and Market Area Demographics

VSKA reviewed the demographics, housing characteristics and existing senior


housing in Oak Park. The Primary Market Area (PMA) from which a new
building will draw is the Village of Oak Park which is coterminous with Oak Park
Township. However, a high quality building can be expected to draw residents
from nearby suburbs that have few or no senior housing options. These include
River Forest, Forest Park, Elmwood Park and Berwyn which make up the
Secondary Market Area (SMA).

VSKA did not include the Austin neighborhood on the west side of Chicago
because there are already many senior buildings. We recognize that depending on
the location of a senior building in Oak Park, additional demand could come from
Chicago residents.

Key demographic findings include:

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

 Seniors age 65 and over comprise 10.5% of Oak Park’s population, and
those 75 or older represent 5.5% of the village’s population.
 There are more than 5,250 Oak Park residents age 65+.
o ZIP code 60302 (north side of Oak Park ) has the largest number with
an estimated 3,400 seniors.
o ZIP code 60304 (south side of Oak Park) has an estimated 1,500
seniors.
o 60301 (downtown Oak Park) has an estimated 400 seniors.
 In Oak Park, one third of households over 65 have incomes under $35,000
and 46% have incomes under $50,000.
 Over the next five years, the Oak Park population aged 65-84 is projected
to increase.

2. Oak Park Housing Characteristics

 The median rent in Oak Park was $875 and the median home value was
$388,800 based on the 2005-2007 American Community Survey.
 62% of the households over 65 and 55% of those over 75 in the Village of
Oak Park are homeowners.
 In 2000, nearly a quarter of all renters were paying 35% or more of their
income in rent. In 2007, this increased to nearly one third of all renters
paying such a high share.

3. Competitive Senior Properties

 There are six senior buildings in Oak Park.


o Three are affordable independent senior buildings with 474 units (The
Oaks, Mills Park Tower and Heritage House).
o Two are market rate facilities with 312 independent living units (Oak
Park Arms and Holley Court Terrace) and some assisted living units.
o One is exclusively for assisted living (Belmont Village), with 127
studio and one bedroom apartments (assisted, skilled nursing and
memory care)
 The SMA has 2 buildings with 128 units including:
o The Altenheim in the Park in Forest Park with 56 market rate units.
o Elmbrook Senior Residences in Elmwood Park with 72 affordable
units.
o Two senior buildings in Forest Park and Elmwood Park with a
combined total of 174 units may be applying for Low Income Housing
Tax Credits (LIHTCs) through the Illinois Housing Development
Authority in May 2010.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

4. Senior Survey Results

VSKA conducted a telephone survey in mid-February 2010 of seniors not


currently living in designated senior housing in Oak Park. A total of 150
interviews were completed. Key findings are:

 Over 60% of the respondents are not likely to move from their current
home in the next five years.
 Of the remainder who would consider a move or are not sure about a
move, 38% feel that it is extremely or very important to remain in Oak
Park.
 Of those respondents who said they would consider a move in five years,
only 36% are interested in senior housing, and of those:
o 9 prefer independent living without meals
o 5 prefer independent living with meals
o 4 prefer assisted living

5. Demand for Additional Senior Housing in Oak Park

 There is demand for 40-49 additional independent living units for Oak
Park residents with incomes between $20,000 and $50,000. Those earning
less than $20,000 are served by existing affordable buildings, while those
earning over $50,000 are served by existing market rate buildings.
 There is additional demand from those in the SMA and outside of the
PMA or SMA to support a total of 161-216 units of senior housing. This
includes both market rate and affordable senior housing, with most of the
demand for affordable housing for those with incomes between $20,000
and $35,000. This assumes that the proposed senior buildings in Forest
Park and Elmwood Park are not built. If one or both are built, demand
from the SMA will be lower.
 There is not additional demand for market rate assisted living at this time
as the existing facilities in Oak Park adequately serve this market niche.
 There could be future demand for a supportive living facility (SLF) that
offers assisted living to low-income seniors through a State of Illinois
program. However, because the state awarded 18 new licenses in early
2010, it will be several years before it is likely to accept applications for
additional SLF licenses.

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DEMAND FOR NEW SENIOR INDEPENDENT LIVING IN OAK PARK

Range of Supportable Units


(#)

From Oak Park Residents 40 49


Affordable (LIHTC) 30 35
Market Rate 9 14

From Secondary Market Area Residents 81 113


Affordable (LIHTC) 54 72
Market Rate 28 41

From Residents Outside of the Area 40 54


Affordable (LIHTC) 28 36
Market Rate 12 19

Total Demand 161 216


Affordable (LIHTC) 112 142
Market Rate 49 74

Note: Numbers may not total due to rounding.

Source: Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc. based on household estimates


from Demographics Now.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

II. OAK PARK AND MARKET AREA DEMOGRAPHICS

A. Market Area

Since there is no specific senior housing site identified by Oak Park Township at this
time, VSKA focused our attention on the Village of Oak Park as the Primary Market
Area (PMA) for a senior building in Oak Park. In addition, we delineated a Secondary
Market Area (SMA) based on interviews with managers of the existing Oak Park senior
buildings and on the locations of additional senior housing. The SMA includes River
Forest, Forest Park, Elmwood Park and Berwyn.

While proximate to Oak Park on the east, the Austin community area of Chicago was not
included in the SMA. This is due to the fact that the Austin area is already well served
with senior housing. We recognize that a new building in Oak Park could attract some
residents from Chicago depending on the actual location; however, this analysis focused
on the need and support from residents of Oak Park and the nearby underserved suburbs.
The ability to attract residents from Chicago is considered to be “additional” demand
from people outside of the PMA and SMA. A map of the market area is on the following
page.

B. Market Area Demographics

The Village of Oak Park has an estimated 5,200 people over age 65 and 2,700 over 75,
equal to 10.5% and 5.5% respectively of the village’s population according to estimates
by Demographics Now, a demographic data vendor. Over the next five years, the
population aged 65-84 is projected to increase. These numbers are consistent with the
2005-2007 American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census. The Census
does not have more recent estimates for Oak Park and won’t until the 2010 decennial
Census is completed. These estimates and projections are displayed in Table 1.

The SMA is twice the size of Oak Park in total population and has an estimated 14,300
people over 65, 7,500 of whom are over 75 years of age. Seniors comprise a larger share
of the SMA’s population than in Oak Park. Over the next five years, the population 65-74
years of age is projected to increase in the SMA while the number of people 75+ is
projected to decrease.

VSKA also looked at the senior population by ZIP code, as shown in Table 2. ZIP code
60302 (north side) has the largest number of seniors with an estimated 3,400 residents
over 65. ZIP code 60304 (south side) has an estimated 1,500 people and 60301
(downtown) has 400 people over 65. A ZIP code map follows.

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DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2010

Oak Park Senior Market Area

Data use subject to license. TN Scale 1 : 62,500


0 ¼ ½ ¾ 1
mi
© DeLorme. DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2010. MN (3.3°W)
0 ½ 1 1½ 2
km

www.delorme.com 1" = 5,208.3 ft Data Zoom 11-6

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Table 1

POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS IN OAK PARK


AND SECONDARY MARKET AREA

Oak Park Secondary Market Area


Number Percent Number Percent

2009 Estimated Population 49,983 101,551


65-74 Years 2,519 5.0% 6,816 6.7%
75-84 Years 1,739 3.5% 5,073 5.0%
85+ Years 996 2.0% 2,396 2.4%
Total 65+ 5,254 10.5% 14,285 14.1%
Total 75+ 2,735 5.5% 7,469 7.4%

2014 Projected Population 48,403 98,565


65-74 Years 3,082 6.4% 7,895 8.0%
75-84 Years 1,797 3.7% 4,926 5.0%
85+ Years 916 1.9% 2,130 2.2%
Total 65+ 5,795 12.0% 14,951 15.2%
Total 75+ 2,713 5.6% 7,056 7.2%

Population Change 2009-2014 (1,580) -3.2% (2,986) -2.9%


65-74 Years 563 22.4% 1,079 15.8%
75-84 Years 58 3.3% (147) -2.9%
85+ Years (80) -8.0% (266) -11.1%
Total 65+ 541 10.3% 666 4.7%
Total 75+ (22) -0.8% (413) -5.5%

Source: Demographics Now.

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Table 2

POPULATION OVER 65 YEARS IN OAK PARK ZIP CODES

60301 60302 60304

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

2009 Estimated Population 2,346 30,856 16,781


65-74 Years 131 5.6% 1,606 5.2% 782 4.7%
75-84 Years 167 7.1% 1,101 3.6% 471 2.8%
85+ Years 125 5.3% 670 2.2% 201 1.2%
Total 65+ 423 18.0% 3,377 10.9% 1,454 8.7%
Total 75+ 292 12.4% 1,771 5.7% 672 4.0%

2014 Projected Population 2,644 30,072 15,687


65-74 Years 179 6.8% 1,980 6.6% 923 5.9%
75-84 Years 165 6.2% 1,155 3.8% 477 3.0%
85+ Years 108 4.1% 615 2.0% 193 1.2%
Total 65+ 452 17.1% 3,750 12.5% 1,593 10.2%
Total 75+ 273 10.3% 1,770 5.9% 670 4.3%

Population Change 2009-2014 298 12.7% (1,094) -2.5% (1,094) -6.5%


65-74 Years 48 36.6% 374 23.3% 141 18.0%
75-84 Years (2) -1.2% 54 4.9% 6 1.3%
85+ Years (17) -13.6% (55) -8.2% (8) -4.0%
Total 65+ 29 6.9% 373 11.0% 139 9.6%
Total 75+ (19) -6.5% (1) -0.1% (2) -0.3%

Source: Demographics Now.

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DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2010

Oak Park Zip Codes

Data use subject to license. TN Scale 1 : 25,000


0 600 1200 1800 2400 3000
ft
© DeLorme. DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2010. MN (3.3°W)
0 200 400 600 800 1000
m

www.delorme.com 1" = 2,083.3 ft Data Zoom 13-0

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Again, most of the senior population growth in all 3 ZIP codes is expected to come from
seniors aged 65-74. Each ZIP code currently has about 5% of its population aged 65-74,
and 60302 and 60304 have a total of about 10% over age 65. ZIP code 60301 has a much
larger portion of residents 75+. There is a large senior building, as well as several
condominium and apartment buildings, in this ZIP code that most likely account for this.

It is also important to analyze the income of area seniors to understand what they are able
to afford for housing, as presented in Table 3. In Oak Park, one third of households over
65 have incomes under $35,000 and 46% have incomes under $50,000. Those earning
over $50,000 are projected to grow in number over the next five years.

Typically those with incomes under $35,000 are candidates for affordable senior housing.
Those earning over $50,000 are candidates for market rate housing. Those who earn
between $35,000 and $50,000 may be able to afford some market rate housing, especially
if they are able to spend down their assets. According to the 2005-2007 American
Community Survey, the mean retirement income of Oak Park households was $27,466
and the mean Social Security income was $15,603. Thus many seniors are unable to
afford market rate senior housing.

The incomes in the SMA are lower on average than in Oak Park as shown in Table 4.
Approximately 39% of SMA senior households earn less than $35,000 and 54% earn less
than $50,000. Growth is projected among those households earning over $100,000.

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Table 3

VILLAGE OF OAK PARK HOUSEHOLDS 65+ BY INCOME

Age/Income 2009 2014 Change 2009-2014


# % # % # %

Households 55-64 3,367 3,793 426 12.7%

Households 65+ 3,637 4,074 437 12.0%


Under $10,000 279 7.7% 275 6.8% (4) -1.4%
$10,000-$19,999 405 11.1% 429 10.5% 24 5.9%
$20,000-$29,999 336 9.2% 312 7.7% (24) -7.1%
$30,000-$34,999 168 4.6% 164 4.0% (4) -2.4%
$35,000-$49,999 470 12.9% 483 11.9% 13 2.8%
$50,000-$74,999 545 15.0% 634 15.6% 89 16.3%
$75,000-$99,999 372 10.2% 427 10.5% 55 14.8%
$100,000-$149,999 466 12.8% 575 14.1% 109 23.4%
$150,000+ 596 16.4% 775 19.0% 179 30.0%

Households 75+ 1,943 1,949 6 0.3%


Under $10,000 171 8.8% 152 7.8% (19) -11.1%
$10,000-$19,999 261 13.4% 251 12.9% (10) -3.8%
$20,000-$29,999 200 10.3% 165 8.5% (35) -17.5%
$30,000-$34,999 92 4.7% 83 4.3% (9) -9.8%
$35,000-$49,999 243 12.5% 226 11.6% (17) -7.0%
$50,000-$74,999 283 14.6% 285 14.6% 2 0.7%
$75,000-$99,999 184 9.5% 195 10.0% 11 6.0%
$100,000-$149,999 221 11.4% 255 13.1% 34 15.4%
$150,000+ 288 14.8% 337 17.3% 49 17.0%

Source: Demographics Now.

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Table 4

OAK PARK SECONDARY MARKET AREA


HOUSEHOLDS 65+ BY INCOME

Age/Income 2009 2014 Change 2009-2014


# % # % # %

Households 55-64 10,791 11,825 1,034 9.6%

Households 65+ 9,156 9,718 562 6.1%


Under $10,000 603 6.6% 580 6.0% (23) -3.8%
$10,000-$19,999 1,151 12.6% 1,133 11.7% (18) -1.6%
$20,000-$29,999 1,257 13.7% 1,149 11.8% (108) -8.6%
$30,000-$34,999 531 5.8% 543 5.6% 12 2.3%
$35,000-$49,999 1,381 15.1% 1,360 14.0% (21) -1.5%
$50,000-$74,999 1,643 17.9% 1,805 18.6% 162 9.9%
$75,000-$99,999 968 10.6% 1,079 11.1% 111 11.5%
$100,000-$149,999 889 9.7% 1,130 11.6% 241 27.1%
$150,000+ 733 8.0% 939 9.7% 206 28.1%

Households 75+ 4,951 4,760 (191) -3.9%


Under $10,000 355 7.2% 315 6.6% (40) -11.3%
$10,000-$19,999 720 14.5% 654 13.7% (66) -9.2%
$20,000-$29,999 748 15.1% 623 13.1% (125) -16.7%
$30,000-$34,999 298 6.0% 277 5.8% (21) -7.0%
$35,000-$49,999 723 14.6% 649 13.6% (74) -10.2%
$50,000-$74,999 826 16.7% 825 17.3% (1) -0.1%
$75,000-$99,999 481 9.7% 482 10.1% 1 0.2%
$100,000-$149,999 438 8.8% 508 10.7% 70 16.0%
$150,000+ 362 7.3% 427 9.0% 65 18.0%

Source: Demographics Now.

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III. OAK PARK AND MARKET AREA HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS

A. General Housing Characteristics

According to the 2000 Census, 62% of the households over 65 and 55% of those over 75
in the Village of Oak Park were owners (Table 5). More recent information is not
available. The profile differs considerably by ZIP code within the village. Those living
downtown in ZIP code 60301 are primarily renters (71% of those 65+ and 78% of those
75+). In ZIP codes 60302 and 60304, the majority of seniors are owners, though the
share is much higher in ZIP code 60304 on the south side. The high share of renters in
the downtown area is due in part to the presence of a senior rental building.

Based on information from the 2005-2007 American Community Survey as shown in


Table 6, the portion of renter-occupied households in total in Oak Park has decreased by
17% since 2000. During this same time period, Oak Park saw an increase in single-
family attached and 2-9 unit multi-family housing.

According to the 2005-2007 American Community Survey, the median rent in Oak Park
was $875, as shown in Table 7. In 2000, nearly a quarter of all renters were paying 35%
or more of their income in rent. In 2007, this share increased to nearly one third of all
renters. Oak Park’s excellent reputation and high quality services attract people to the
community, but because it has high rents, more people are overburdened compared to
some neighboring areas. Based on affordability guidelines, a renter should not be paying
more than 30% of their income in rent, though for seniors this share can be as high as
45% according to guidelines used by the Illinois Housing Development Authority.

The median home value in 2005-2007 according to the American Community Survey
was $388,800. Prices have dropped in the past several years and the median sales price
in the third quarter of 2009 was $322,000, down from $339,000 one year earlier
according to data collected by the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and published in the
Chicago Tribune. (This includes all residential sales through the MLS so it does not
include properties sold by owners directly.)

VSKA conducted a survey of on-line listings for one and two bedroom apartments in
elevator buildings in Oak Park since these are most suitable for seniors. One bedroom
rents ranged from $950 to $2,005 and two bedroom rents ranged from $1,275 to $2,865.
These rents are much higher than would be affordable for low and moderate income
seniors.

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Table 5

2000 HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS HOUSEHOLDS 65+

Oak Park 60301 60302 60304


Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Households 65+ 3,504 370 2,283 851


Owner 2,155 61.5% 106 28.6% 1,338 58.6% 711 83.5%
Renter 1,349 38.5% 264 71.4% 945 41.4% 140 16.5%

Households 75+ 1,919 275 1,243 401


Owner 1,062 55.3% 61 22.2% 661 53.2% 340 84.8%
Renter 857 44.7% 214 77.8% 582 46.8% 61 15.2%

Source: 2000 Census.

VSKA also reviewed building trends in Oak Park from 1998-2009, as shown in Table 8.
Based on information reported by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning and the
U.S. Census, there were at least 292 new housing units built during that time period,
approximately one third of which was multi-family. Permit information for 2007 was
unavailable.

Construction peaked in 2006 and by 2009 construction in Oak Park and elsewhere stalled.
During this 12-year period, construction of single family homes averaged 19 homes per
year. Multi-family housing construction peaked in 2005 at 62 units, with an average of 10
units per year since 1998.

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Table 6

2000 AND 2007 HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS FOR OAK PARK

Oak Park 2000 Oak Park 2005-2007 Change


Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Year Round Housing Units 23,723 24,086 363 1.5%


Occupied 23,079 97.3% 22,120 91.8% (959) -4.2%
Vacant 644 2.7% 1,966 8.2% 1,322 205.3%

Units in Structure 23,723 24,086 363 1.5%


Single Family Detached 9,707 40.9% 9,790 40.6% 83 0.9%
Single Family Attached 569 2.4% 714 3.0% 145 25.5%
2-4 Units 2,845 12.0% 2,976 12.4% 131 4.6%
5-9 Units 2,031 8.6% 2,715 11.3% 684 33.7%
10+ Units 8,541 36.0% 7,891 32.8% (650) -7.6%
Mobile Home, Other 30 0.1% 0 0.0% (30) -100.0%

Housing Tenure
Owner-Occupied Units 12,986 56.3% 13,742 62.1% 756 5.8%
Renter Occupied Units 10,093 43.7% 8,378 37.9% (1,715) -17.0%

Year Structure Built 23,723 24,086 363 1.5%


2000-2007 NA NA 483 2.0% NA NA
1990-2000 428 1.8% 378 1.6% (50) -11.7%
1980-1989 579 2.4% 671 2.8% 92 15.9%
1970-1979 1,351 5.7% 1,111 4.6% (240) -17.8%
1960-1969 1,875 7.9% 1,899 7.9% 24 1.3%
1940-1959 3,844 16.2% 3,076 12.8% (768) -20.0%
1939 or earlier 15,646 66.0% 16,468 68.4% 822 5.3%

Source: 2000 Census and 2005-2007 American Community Survey

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Table 7

2000 AND 2007 RENTAL HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS IN OAK PARK

Oak Park 2000 Oak Park 2005-2007 Change


Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Renter Occupied Units 10,094 8,378 (1,716) -17.0%

Rental Vacancy Rate 2.7% 11.2% 8.5%

Gross Rent
Less than $200 301 3.0% 193 1.9% (108) -35.9%
$200-$299 225 2.2% 212 2.1% (13) -5.8%
$300-$499 574 5.7% 227 2.2% (347) -60.5%
$500-$749 4,597 45.5% 1,526 15.1% (3,071) -66.8%
$750-$999 2,521 25.0% 3,089 30.6% 568 22.5%
$1,000-$1,499 1,228 12.2% 2,092 20.7% 864 70.4%
More than $1,500 509 5.0% 832 8.2% 323 63.5%
No Cash Rent 139 1.4% 207 2.1% 68 48.9%
Median Gross Rent $677 $875 $198

Gross Rent as % of Income


Less than 15% 3,321 35.1% 1,076 12.8% (2,245) -67.6%
15-19.9% 1,589 16.8% 1,519 18.1% (70) -4.4%
20-24.9% 1,284 13.6% 1,073 12.8% (211) -16.4%
25-29.9% 664 7.0% 871 10.4% 207 31.2%
30-34.9% 390 4.1% 744 8.9% 354 90.8%
35% or more 2,218 23.4% 2,754 32.9% 536 24.2%
Not computed 0.0% 341 4.1% NA NA

Source: 2000 Census and 2005-2007 American Community Survey

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Table 8

OAK PARK BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED


1998-2009

Year SF MF Total

1998 11 0 11
1999 32 0 32
2000 6 0 6
2001 14 0 14
2002 13 0 13
2003 13 0 13
2004 6 7 13
2005 6 62 68
2006 60 10 70
2007 NA NA NA
2008 23 25 48
2009 4 0 4
Total 188 104 292
Avg. 19 10 29

Note: Average only includes years where data is available.

Source: Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning 1998-


2005; US Census 2006-2009.

B. Existing Market Area Senior Properties

1. Affordable Independent Living Properties

There are three affordable senior buildings in Oak Park with 474 units – Mills
Park Tower, Heritage House and The Oaks. All three are targeted to very low-
income residents who pay 30% of their adjusted income in rent. Most residents
earn less than $20,000. All three buildings are 30+ years old but have been
upgraded over the years. They have a variety of common rooms and offer
activities for the residents. They are full with long wait lists, though managers

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report that they often call many people on the list before an applicant is actually
ready and willing to move.

The SMA has only one affordable senior building, Elmbrook Senior Residences in
Elmwood Park, which is 10 years old and has 72 units. It is a fairly basic
building, but it too has a long waiting list. Some residents are from Oak Park.

2. Market Rate Independent Living Properties

There are two market rate facilities in Oak Park with 312 independent living units,
Oak Park Arms and Holley Court Terrace. These buildings also have a small
number of assisted living units. Occupancy is 90%+ at each building and rents
range from $1,168-2,495 at the Oak Park Arms and $3,000-5,250 at Holley Court
Terrace depending on the unit size. The units range from small studios at the Oak
Park Arms to large two bedroom units at Holley Court Terrace. Oak Park Arms
offers an optional meal plan with two daily meals for an additional $345, whereas
two meals per day are included in Holley Court’s fees.

These market rate buildings offer more services and amenities than the affordable
independent living buildings in Oak Park or Elmwood Park. Oak Park
Township’s Senior Services are located at the Oak Park Arms and it offers
activities at a senior center and noon time meals.

The SMA has one market rate facility, Altenheim in the Park, in Forest Park. This
is an older building renovated in 1997 with 56 studio, one and two bedroom
apartments. Rents are considerably lower than at the market rate facilities in Oak
Park ranging from $561-1,362 for studio, one and two bedroom apartments. The
lower rents do not include meals, while the higher rents include a main meal at
lunch. The Altenheim is open to those aged 55+ and is well occupied.

3. Market Rate Assisted Living

There is one building exclusively for assisted living in Oak Park, Belmont Village,
with 127 studio and one bedroom apartments. The rent ranges from $2,850-5,700
depending on the room size and services. The base rent includes three meals per
day and assistance with activities of daily living. Additional charges apply for
more intense assistance. Belmont Village also specializes in memory care and
one third of the beds are devoted to this. The building is well occupied.

Both Oak Park Arms and Holley Court Terrace offer assisted living with a
combined total of 56 units. Rates range from $3,210-3,920 at Oak Park Arms and
$4,535-6,635 at Holley Court Terrace depending on the apartment size. Rent
includes three daily meals and assistance with activities of daily living. The

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assisted living units at Holley Court Terrace are full and are 90% occupied at the
Oak Park Arms.

4. Independent Living Near but Outside of the Market Area

There are two independent living facilities under the Low Income Housing Tax
Credit (LIHTC) program with a total of 429 units in the Montclare neighborhood
of Chicago and in Melrose Park. Montclare Senior Residences consists of two
high-rise buildings with a total of 334 one and two bedroom units. It is located
east of Oak Park Avenue and south of Fullerton Avenue. Rents range from $405-
546 for very low-income one bedroom units and $687-829 for low-income one
bedroom apartments. Rents for the two bedroom units are $996. The buildings
are well occupied with a long wait list. Few Oak Park residents moved here
though it is quite close to the village.

Melrose Commons is another LIHTC building that is part of a senior campus on


North Avenue west of the Des Plaines River in Melrose Park. It has 95 one and
two bedroom apartments with rents ranging from $665-955. The building is full.
A small number of residents moved from Oak Park. Most previously lived in
Melrose Park, Elmwood Park and Berwyn.

5. Supportive Living Near but Outside the Market Area

Supportive living facilities (SLFs) are assisted living facilities for those with
incomes less than $30,000, but they also have some residents able to pay market
rates. The SLF program is administered by the Illinois Department of Healthcare
and Family Services and is designed to keep seniors in need of some assistance
with activities of daily living out of nursing homes and in less institutional
settings. Residents with incomes below $30,000 pay all but $90 of their monthly
income in rent. Market rate residents pay $2,600-2,800 in rent. If a market rate
resident spends down his or her assets, she is then converted to the SLF’s low-
income program. In comparison, if a resident of a private assisted living facility
can no longer afford the rent, he or she will most likely have to move.

There are two SLFs near but outside of the market area, Victory Centre of
Galewood and Victory Centre of River Woods. Both buildings provide three daily
meals and assistance with activities of daily living. Victory Centre of Galewood
has 102 units and is located on Grand Avenue and Newcastle in the Galewood
neighborhood of Chicago. It opened in February 2009 and is projected to be fully
leased within a year of opening. Despite the proximity to Oak Park, most of the
residents are from the northwest side of Chicago and it has not attracted residents
from Oak Park.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Victory Centre of River Woods is located in Melrose Park on North Avenue


adjacent to Melrose Commons. It has 109 units with 129 beds and its occupancy
is approximately 90%. It has attracted some, though not many, residents from
Oak Park.

6. Planned Senior Housing

At the present time there are no planned senior housing projects in Oak Park. The
Illinois Housing Development Authority (IHDA) accepted preliminary
applications for LIHTCs in February 2010 and on March 18, 2010, released a list
of projects eligible to submit full applications in May 2010. On that list are two
projects in the SMA. Forest Park Senior Housing at 7400 W. Harrison Avenue is
proposed for 96 units and The Renaissance at 7818 W. Grand Avenue in
Elmwood Park is proposed for 78 units. At this time, it is unknown if the
developers will apply for tax credits in May 2010 and if they do apply, whether
they will be approved.

The table and map on the following pages provide additional information about these
senior buildings.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Table 9 SENIOR HOUSING IN AND NEAR OAK PARK November-December 2009

Name and Address Year # of Rental Range Square Average Amenities/Comments


Opened Units Unit Type $ Footage Rent/ S.F.
(Bed/Bath) ($)

Affordable
M ills Park Tower 1976 198 1 BR/1 BA 30% of Est. 650 NA High rise located near downtown Oak Park. Bath has shower, no
1025 Pleasant Place income tub . Common area with kitchen. TV area, library, computers,
Oak Park vending machin es, games, first floor laundry. Home healthcare
708-386-7536 agency on-site. Police sub-station in building. Resident must bring
win dow AC unit. Electric heat. All units have kitchen with small
stove and fridge, living room, bedroom, bath room. Ongoing
renovations to improve kitch ens, hallways, doors, windows. Quiet
setting back from street, next to large park. Maximum 1 person
income is $40,250; $46,000 for couples. Most residents have only
Social Security as income an d earn less than $20,000.
Owned/managed b y Oak Park Housing Authority. Oak Park
residents receive priority. Wait list. Average rent paid: $200.

Heritage House 1979 200 Section 8 building. Renovated in 2002. Interior atrium, laundry,
201 W. Lake Street 180 1 BR/1 BA 30% of NA NA library, comm. room with craft room, garden, fitn ess room, health
Oak Park 20 2 BR/1 BA income screenings. Units have refrigerator, stove, AC, blind s, ceiling fan .
708-848-1800 Draws primarily from Chicago (west side) and Oak Park. Located
in eastern Oak Park. Max 1 person income is $26,400, max 2
person income $30,150. Parking shortage. Wait list with 125
names. Less than half Oak Park residents, others come from
Chicago 60644, 60651. Lots of turnover in the fall. Elevator and
some bathroom renovation scheduled for March 2010. Tenant pays
for electric heat and AC.

The Oaks 1980 74 Section 202/8 bldg. Max. 1 person income is $26,400, but most
114 S. Hump hrey Renovated 11 Efficiency 30% of 420 NA earn under $15,000. High rise with interior atrium, library, loun ge,
Oak Park 1928 63 1 BR/1 BA income 560 NA laundry, medical clinic, computer lab, service coordinator.
708-386-5812 hotel Common area renovation planned for 2 010. Each unit has ran ge,
refrigerator, tenant controlled heat & carpet. Oak Park residents
receive priority. Wait list 6 months-1 year with 399 names.
Adjacent to adult day care. 10% of units for disabled. Residents
age range 60s-88. Efficiencies harder to keep ren ted.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

SENIOR HOUSING IN AND NEAR OAK PARK November-December 2009

Name and Address Year # of Ren tal Range Sq uare Average Amenities/Comments
Open ed Units Unit Type $ Footage Rent/ S.F.
(Bed/Bath) ($)

Market Rate
Oak Park Arms Built in 190 Rents shown do not include meals for indpt. living. Optional meal
408 S. Oak Park Avenue 1921; 152 Indpt. Living p lans add $345 for 2 daily meals or $450 for 3 daily meals to
Oak Park opened Furn. Room $1,580-1,785 NA NA monthly rent in indpt. living. Curren t special on furnished
708-386-4040 in 1978 Studio 1,168-1,835 NA NA ind ependent studio at $ 1,450/mon th , including 2 meals/day. About
as senior 1 BR 1,990 NA NA 6 0-70% of residents have meal plan. Oak Park Township Sen io r
hou sin g 1 BR large 2,105-2,160 NA NA Services located in building and provides meals and activities.
Support services packages available for addl. cost to independent
2 BR 2,225-2,495 Avg. NA
living residents. All utilities except phone, tran sportation, cable,
38 Assisted Living
wireless internet, maid service and linens included in base rent.
Furn. Room 3,210-3,265 NA NA
Assisted living also includes bathin g assistance, medication
Studio 3,505-3,630 NA NA reminders, laundry service, escort to all meals, an d wellness
1 BR 3,795 NA NA checks. Extensive activities, library, game room, exercise room,
1 BR large 3,870-3,920 Avg. NA garden, solarium, on-site medical center, bank. Average move-in
age is 86. All units have kitchens with a sink and stove except
furnished rooms. Addl. services availab le on a la carte b asis.
Primary mkt. area is Oak Park/River Fo rest with many from Forest
Park, Berwyn, Cicero.

Holley Court Terrace 1992 178 Luxury congregate bldg. Rent includes M-F breakfast p lus 20 main
1111 Ontario Street 160 Indpt. Living meals per month, all utilities excep t phone, linen s, free
Oak Park 103 1 BR/1 BA $3,000-3,715 595-723 $5.04-5.14 washer/dryer, cable TV, basic long term care insurance, scheduled
708-383-2063 57 2 BR/2 BA 4,500-5,250 905-1,160 4.53-4.97 transportation. Optional assisted living and home health care
available. Exercise, card, craft, library, computer, multi-purpose
rooms, lounges & activities. Full time, on-site rehab, PT, OT &
18 Assisted Living
speech th erapy. Downtown Oak Park locatio n. Asst. living floor
Studio 4,535 595-723 6.27-7.62
rehabbed in 2004. Housekeeping every other week for indpt.; more
1 BR/1 BA 5,135 NA NA
frequent for asst. living. Asst. livin g inc. all meals & personal
2 BR 6,635 905-1,160 NA laundry. Priority for asst. living to existing residents. Wait list for
assisted living units. Home health agency on premises. Second
p erson fee $650 for ind ependen t living. Assisted living non-
refundable community fee $3,000, second person fee $ 1,27 5.
Median resident age 8 5. Small wait list. M ost residents form Oak
Park, River Forest, Elmwood Park, Cicero, Forest Park. 45% out of
state with adult child ren in area.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

SENIOR HOUSING IN AND NEAR OAK PARK November-December 2009

Name and Address Year # of Rental Range Square Average Amenities/Comments


Opened Units Unit Type $ Footage Rent/ S.F.
(Bed/Bath) ($)

Belmont Village Nov. 2004 127 Companion $2,850 Rent includes 3 restaurant-style meals daily, all utilities in cluding
1035 Madison Studio 3,725 NA NA cable except ph one. Daily transportation, weekly housekeeping,
Oak Park 1 BR 5,700 NA NA laundry. RN 24 hours, bistro, beauty salon/barber shop, life fitness
708-848-7200 center, computers, social activities, van. All Activity of Daily
Living asst. inc. in base fee. PT, OT, speech, reh ab available on-
site. Extra fee for incontinence & insulin injections. 2nd occupant
fee is $850. 6- story building. Supplemen tal services for addl. fees.
Community fee equal to 1 month rent. Two levels o f memory care
with 47 beds. Possibly going to expand memory care unit due to
high occupancy.

Secondary Market Area


Elmbrook Senior Residences 1999 72 Section 8 building with stark appearance. Community room
7940 W. Grand 18 Studio 30% of 450 NA w/kitchen, g arden, patio, service coordinator. Wheelchair
Elmwood Park 53 1 BR/1 BA income 575 NA accessible, PACE bus and taxi vouchers available. Units in clude
708-583-1235 stove, refrigerator, AC. Located on busy street surrounded by
ind ustry and railroad tracks. Waiting list 2.5 years with 65 names.
Min. age 62 or in a wheelchair. Maximum income $26,400 for 1
person. 10 or 11 wheelchair accessible units. Some, bu t not many
Oak Park residents in building and on wait list.

Altenheim in the Park 1885 56 55+ senior build ing. Housekeeping, heat, linen service and daily
7824 Madison Street Renovated 20 A Bldg lun ch included with rent in A Build ing . B building residents may
Forest Park 1997 4 Studio $967 NA NA purchase these services. Units come with full kitchen, stove,
708-366-2206 1981 12 1 BR/1 BA 1,192 NA NA refrigerator. Building has laundry, several small community
rooms/lounges, din ing room, courtyard, craft room, beauty shop,
4 2 BR 1,362 NA NA
transportation to grocery store, activities, exercise class, visiting
podiatrist. Residents mostly from Forest Park, Oak Park & Berwyn.
36 B Bldg
High demand for 2 bedroom apartments. No income requirements,
8 Studio 561 NA NA
but must pass health & credit check. Average age at move-in is 80.
28 1 BR/1 BA 669 NA NA Many residents move on to SLF when they can no longer take care
of themselves. Second occupant $240/month for meals.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

SENIOR HOUSING IN AND NEAR OAK PARK November-December 2009

Name and Address Year # of Rental Range Square Average Amenities/Comments


Opened Units Unit Type $ Footage Rent/ S.F.
(Bed/Bath) ($)

Near but Outside Market Area


M ontclare Senior Residences Phase I Dec. 153 LIHTC building with attached community building with activity
6650 W. Belden 2001 47 1 BR/1 BA very low $405-546 573-631 $.71-0.86 room and kitchen, card/game room, lib rary, crafts room, computer
Chicago 70 1 BR/1 BA low 687-829 573-631 1.19-1.31 room, fitness center, laund ry. Space for visiting hairdresser,
36 2 BR/1 BA low 996 895 1.11 medical personnel. Units have fridge, stove, dishwasher,
M ontclare Senior Residences Phase II Sept 181 microwave, carpet. Rent includes gas heat; tenant pays elec (inc.
6650 W. Belden 2004 139 1BR/1 BA 687-829 573-693 1.19-1.31 stove), phone. Utility allowance $21 for 1 BR and $32 for 2 BR.
City of Chicago Golden Diners program located in building. 1 -
Chicago 42 2BR/1 BA 996 895 1.11
person max inco me is $31,680; 2-person max is $36,180. 30% and
773-237-3831
40% AMI units have 1-2 year wait list. 50% and 60% AM I units
available. Residents must be age 55+. Small portion of residents
from Oak Park, estimated ~1 5.

M elrose Commons 2003 95 1 BR/1 BA $665-830 NA NA Each unit has full kitchen , carpeting, blinds, individually controlled
1750 Riverwoo ds Dr 2 BR/2 BA 785-955 NA NA heat. Building has livin g room, lounge, library, fitness center,
M elrose Park, IL 60160-1648 laundry, game room, beau ty shop, computers, activities,
(708) 343-2265 transportation. Housekeeping an d linen service o ptional. Residents
must be at least 62 years old, and have an income less than $26,400
for one person or $30,150 for two people. A small fraction of
residents from Oak Park; most from Melrose Park, Elmwood Park
& Berwyn.

Victory Centre of River Woods SLF Aug. 2003 109 Services include 3 daily meals, assistance with p erso nal
1800 River Woods Drive 80 Studio low State 334-366 NA services, medication assistance, housekeeping, laundry, weekly
M elrose Park 18 2 BR/1 BA low formula 642-660 NA transportation, social programs, arts an d crafts, community
708-547-5800 9 Studio market $3,300-3,800 334-366 $9.88-10.38 room, physical therapy ro om, beauty shop , library/card room,
2 2 BR/1 BA market 4,400 642-660 6.67-6.85 outdoor garden/patio, medical exam room. Units have full
bath, kitchen with full-sized refrigerator and microwave oven.
11 market rate units. 7 residents from Oak Park.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

SENIOR HOUSING IN AND NEAR OAK PARK November-December 2009

Name and Address Year # of Rental Range Square Average Amenities/Comments


Opened Units Unit Type $ Footage Rent/ S.F.
(Bed/Bath) ($)

Victory Centre of Galewood SLF Feb. 2009 102 Bldg. has commercial kitchen and dining room, lounges,
2370 N. Newcastle 6 Studio 30% AMI State 375 NA day room, beauty shop, medical exam room, exercise facility,
Chicago 21 Studio 40% AMI formula 375 NA family and guest meeting area. Social services, 3 meals per
35 Studio 50% AMI State 375 NA day, personal care attendants for asst. with daily living,
16 Studio 60% AMI formula 375 NA health monitoring, transportation, housekeeping and laundry.
24 Studio Market $3,500 375 $9.33 Units have full bath, kitchen with full-sized refrigerator and
microwave oven. Only 2 residents from Oak Park. Draws
primarily from Chicago.

NA Not Available

Source: Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

25
DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2010

Oak Park Area Senior Properties

Data use subject to license. TN Scale 1 : 62,500


0 ¼ ½ ¾ 1
mi
© DeLorme. DeLorme Street Atlas USA® 2010. MN (3.3°W)
0 ½ 1 1½ 2
km

www.delorme.com 1" = 5,208.3 ft Data Zoom 11-6

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

IV. SENIOR HOUSING SURVEY

VSKA prepared a telephone questionnaire designed to elicit information and opinions


from Oak Park Township seniors who do not currently reside in specifically designated
senior housing. The intent of the survey was to ascertain their general interest in and
preferences for senior housing in Oak Park.

The draft survey was reviewed by Township and Village officials and revised based on
their feedback. The Township publicized the upcoming survey through the local
newspapers, letters to the 1,145 names on its senior mailing list, and on the Township’s
web site to improve participation. A copy of the survey is included in a separate report
that has the full analysis of the results.

Surveyed residents were randomly selected and quotas were set by ZIP code so that the
results would be representative of different sections of Oak Park. Those already living in
one of the existing senior buildings were not included in the survey. In total, 150 surveys
were completed.

Key findings are:

 Over 60% of the respondents are not likely to move from their current home in
the next five years. Of the remainder who would consider a move or are not sure
about a move, 38% feel that it is extremely or very important to remain in Oak
Park.

 The most frequently mentioned reasons for considering a move within the next
five years are:

Reduce the burden or cost of home ownership


Declining health
Downsizing

 For those who might consider a future move:

36% would be interested in some type of senior-only housing


64% would not be interested in some type of senior-only housing

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 Of the 20 respondents interested in senior housing, the preferred housing types


along with the number of responses are:

Independent senior building without meals 9


Independent senior building with meals 5
Assisted living building with personal care and meals 4
Nursing homes 2

 The top factors that would affect where the 20 respondents interested in senior
housing would move, along with the number of responses are:

Meals 7
Transportation 6
Cost 6
Location 5
Close to shopping 4
Housekeeping 3
No stairs 2

 Positive comments from the respondents about Oak Park’s senior housing and the
number of responses include:

Oak Park does a good/excellent job/pleased with it/find it adequate 8


Know people who live in it and like it/are satisfied 7
Buildings/facilities seem pleasant/nice 5
Oak Park has senior facilities and many seniors live in senior housing 5

 Negative comments about Oak Park’s senior housing and the number of responses
include:

Low-income people have difficulty affording Oak Park housing 7


Not enough senior housing in Oak Park 6
Taxes too high/know people forced to move due to taxes 4
Wouldn’t want to live in Oak Park senior housing/prefer to live elsewhere 4

 Respondents prefer two bedroom to one bedroom units.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Given the small sample sizes, it is difficult to generalize; however, the survey seems to
indicate that while Oak Park already has good quality senior housing and the majority of
seniors do not plan to move within the next five years, there may be an opportunity to
develop some additional housing for lower income seniors. This is shown by the top two
negative comments about the difficulty that lower income people have in affording Oak
Park housing and that there is not enough senior housing in Oak Park.

The full survey report contains a more detailed analysis of the survey responses.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

V. DEMAND FOR ADDITIONAL SENIOR HOUSING IN OAK PARK

A. Independent Living Penetration and Demand

As the above sections show, Oak Park is well served with high end, market rate
independent living. The low end of the spectrum is also well served with the three
properties targeting very low-income residents. In order to assess demand for additional
senior housing, VSKA analyzed the senior demographics, existing competition and the
results of the housing survey.

One measure of demand is the penetration rate of existing senior housing. It is an


indication of the extent to which the existing buildings serve this population. It compares
the number of senior households at different income levels to the number of senior
housing units at different price points in Oak Park and the SMA.

Oak Park has a wide array of social services for seniors at all income levels to assist them
with chores, transportation, meals and activities that enable them to live in their own
homes. Affluent seniors typically have more options than those with low incomes as they
can afford household help for cleaning, cooking and other activities of daily living before
considering a move. Therefore, a relatively small share of seniors will move to age-
restricted housing even when it is high quality and affordable. This is consistent with the
findings in the survey.

The market is often saturated when the penetration rate of existing senior housing is
greater than 15-20% of the age and income qualified population in a market area. In
these situations we would expect to see higher vacancy rates, incentives and/or rent or
price reductions at all or some properties. This is not the case in Oak Park. Current and
projected penetration rates are shown in Table 10.

Oak Park has 474 independent senior housing units in three buildings that are targeted to
those with incomes under $20,000, though they are able to rent to those with incomes that
are somewhat higher. They penetrate a very high 69% of the households age 65+ with
incomes less than $20,000, indicating that the very low end of the senior housing market
is being adequately served.

There are no Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) senior units in Oak Park. These
buildings typically attract those earning between $20,000 and $35,000. There are 500
senior households in this income bracket who would be potential residents of a LIHTC
building in Oak Park.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Table 10

OAK PARK AFFORDABLE INDEPENDENT LIVING PEN ETRATION ANALYSIS

2009 2014

Oak Park Households 65 Years + 3,637 4,074


Total Households 65+ with Incomes under $20,000 684 704
Total Households 65+ with Incomes $20,000-34,999 504 476
Total Households 65+ with Incomes $35,000-49,999 470 483
Total Households 65+ with Incomes $50,000-74,999 545 634
Total Households 65+ with Incomes $75,000+ 1,434 1,777

Existing and Planned Affordable Independent Senior Units in Oak Park 474 474
Penetration of Existing Affordable Independent Senior Units of Households 65+ with 69.3% 67.3%
Incomes Under $20,000

Existing and Planned Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Units in Oak Park 0 0
Penetration of Existing Senior Units of Households 65+ with Incomes $20,000-34,999 0% 0%

Existing and Planned Market Rate Independent Senior Units in Oak Park 312 312
Penetration of Existing Market Rate Independent Senior Units of Households 65+ with 13% 11%
Incomes Over $35,000

Secondary Market A rea Households 65 Years + 9,156 9,718


Total Households 65+ with Incomes under $20,000 1,754 1,713
Total Households 65+ with Incomes $20,000-34,999 1,788 1,692
Total Households 65+ with Incomes $35,000-49,999 1,381 1,360

Existing and Planned Affordable Independent Senior Units in Secondary Market Area 72 72
Penetration of Existing Affordable Independent Senior Units of Households 65+ with 4.1% 4.2%
Incomes Under $20,000

Existing and Planned Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Units in Secondary Market Area 0 0
Penetration of Existing Senior Units of Households 65+ with Incomes $20,000-34,999 0.0% 0.0%

Source: Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc. based on estimates & projections from Demographics Now.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

The 312 independent living market rate units are targeted to households earning over
$35,000 and they penetrate 13% of the seniors in that income group at present. This is a
reasonable level and indicates the market is generally well served, though some
additional market rate units could be supported within a LIHTC building.

In the SMA, the 72 affordable units in Elmwood Park penetrate a very low 4% of the
senior households with incomes under $20,000. With such a low market penetration rate
and no LIHTC units in the SMA, there is demand for more affordable senior apartments
to serve this area as well as Oak Park.

VSKA also estimated the number of additional senior units that could be supported in
Oak Park based on the existing competition, demographics of the senior population and
realistic capture rates for a new building in Oak Park, as shown in Table 11 below.
Typically a single building will not be able to capture more than 7% of the total demand,
especially if there are other competing properties.

Table 11 presents a range of units that could be supported from residents of Oak Park,
from those who live in the SMA and could be attracted to Oak Park, and from those
living outside of Oak Park and the SMA. The demand assumes a LIHTC building
catering to those with incomes from $20,000-34,999 that also has some market rate units
targeted to those with incomes in the $35,000-49,999 range.

There is demand for approximately 40-50 units of housing targeted to those earning
$20,000-50,000 currently living in Oak Park. However, an Oak Park location could
attract residents from River Forest, Forest Park, Berwyn and Elmwood Park who have
few affordable senior housing choices today. The senior population in the SMA is much
larger than in Oak Park, thus there is demand for twice the number of units from the
SMA than from Oak Park in a LIHTC building. This assumes that the projects in Forest
Park and Elmwood Park that may submit applications to the Illinois Housing
Development Authority do not move forward. They would reduce the demand from the
SMA for a senior building in Oak Park.

With an estimated 25% of residents likely to move to a building in Oak Park from outside
of the village or SMA, the total demand could reach 161-216 units. This assumes a
convenient location within the village and a high quality building.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Table 11

POTENTIAL DEMAND FOR AFFORDABLE INDEPENDENT LIVING IN OAK PARK


(Based on Age and Income-Qualified Households in Oak Park and Secondary Market Area)

2009 Capture Rate 2014 Capture Rate

Oak Park
Income Level $20,000-$34,999 6% 7% 6% 7%
Number of Households Over 65 504 504 476 476
Demand at 6-7% Capture 30 35 29 33

Income Level $35,000-$49,999 2% 3% 2% 3%


Number of Households Over 65 470 470 483 483
Demand at 2-3% Capture 9 14 10 14

Total Demand from Oak Park 40 49 38 48

Secondary Market Area


Income Level $20,000-$34,999 3% 4% 3% 4%
Number of Households Over 65 1,788 1,788 1,692 1,692
Demand at 3-4% Capture 54 72 51 68

Income Level $35,000-$49,999 2% 3% 2% 3%


Number of Households Over 65 1,381 1,381 1,360 1,360
Demand at 2-3% Capture 28 41 27 41

Total Demand from Secondary Market Area 81 113 78 108

Additional Demand Assuming 25% of Residents come from


Outside of Oak Park and Secondary M arket Area 40 54 39 52

Total Demand 161 216 155 208


Low Income Housing Tax Credit Demand 112 142 106 135
Market Rate Demand 49 74 49 74

Note: Numbers may not total due to rounding.

Source: Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc. based on estimates and projections from Demographics Now.

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Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

B. Assisted Living

VSKA also examined the demand for additional assisted living in Oak Park. The upper
end of this market is well served with Belmont Village, Holley Court Terrace and Oak
Park Arms. The SMA has no assisted living facilities. As shown in Table 12 below, the
existing assisted living in Oak Park penetrates 26% of the population aged 75+ with some
type of disability that makes it difficult for them to live independently. This is a
relatively high rate, indicating that the market is well served already and additional units
are not supportable at this time.

Table 12

OAK PARK A SSISTED LIVING PENETRATION AN ALYSIS

2009 2014

Oak Park Population 75+ 2,735 2,713


Percent of Population 75+ with Disability* 50.9% 50.9%
Population 75+ with Disability 1,392 1,381

Oak Park Households 75 Years + 1,943 1,949


Percent with Incomes under $30,000 32.5% 29.1%
Percent with Incomes $30,000-49,999 17.2% 15.9%
Percent with Incomes $50,000-74,999 14.6% 14.6%
Percent with Incomes $75,000 35.7% 40.4%

Estimated Population 75+ with Disabilities with Incomes Under $30,000 453 403
Estimated Population 75+ with Disabilities with Incomes $30,000-$49,999 240 219
Estimated Population 75+ with Disabilities with Incomes $50,000-$74,999 203 202
Estimated Population 75+ with Disabilities with Incomes $75,000+ 497 558

Existing and Planned Market Rate Assisted Living Units in Oak Park 183 183
Penetration of Existing and Pla nned Marke t Rate Assisted Living Units of Oak Park's
Population 75+ with Disabilities and Incomes $50,000+ 26.2% 24.1%

Existing and Planned Supportive Living Units in Oak Park 0 0


Penetration of Existing and Pla nned Supportive Living Units of Oak Park's Population 75+
with Disabilities and Incomes Under $30,000 0% 0%

* Based on U.S. Census for Oak Park.

Source: Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc. based on data from U. S. Census and Demographics Now.

34
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Oak Park has no supportive living facilities serving low-income seniors in need of
assistance with activities of daily living. Two are located near but just outside of the
market area in Melrose Park and in the Galewood neighborhood of Chicago. These
buildings have attracted a few, but not many Oak Park residents. As such, there could be
support for some supportive living to serve the approximately 400 people age 75+ with
incomes under $30,000 and in need of some assistance.

Supportive living facilities are licensed by the State Department of Healthcare and
Family Services. The department accepted applications for new licenses in 2009 and
awarded 18 licenses throughout the state. None were near Oak Park. If their past
experience is representative, the State is unlikely to accept applications for new licenses
for several more years. When the window is opened again, Oak Park could probably
support a SLF as long as it also draws people from the SMA.

35
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

VI. APPENDIX

Photos of Existing Senior Housing in and near Oak Park

Heritage House

36
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Mills Park Tower

37
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

The Oaks

Oak Park Arms

38
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Holly Court Terrace

39
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Belmont Village

Altenheim in the Park

40
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Elmbrook Senior Residences

Melrose Commons

41
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Montclare Senior Residences

Victory Centre of River Woods SLF

42
Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc.

Victory Centre of Galewood SLF

43
BLOCK AFFORDABLE
HOUSING CONSULTING, LLC
936 S. Kenilworth

Oak Park, IL 60304

708-705-6455

To:  Gavin Morgan and David Boulanger, Oak Park Township 

From:  Chris Block, Block Affordable Housing Consulting, LLC 

Date:  August 31, 2010 

Re:  Financial Feasibility for Proposed Senior Housing in Oak Park Township 

________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

INTRODUCTION 

Block Affordable Housing Consulting, LLC and Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc. were 
retained by Oak Park Township to assess the financial feasibility of an affordable senior 
building of 50 or 100 units under the Low Income Housing Tax Credit program (“LIHTC”).  
This is a follow‐up to the market study completed earlier this year.  In order to determine 
the feasibility of such a building, Block Affordable Housing Consulting researched land costs 
in Oak Park, identified development costs, financing sources, rents and expenses to prepare 
pro formas for prototypical senior buildings of 50 and 100 units. 

In addition, despite our earlier discussions where we envisioned running pro formas for 
both 4% and 9% tax credit transactions, the 9% transactions were so financially strained 
that we determined that running them at 4% would be a purely academic exercise.  In a 4% 
tax credit project, the equity raised through tax credits is approximately 60% lower than it 
would be using 9% tax credits.  This impacts the financial feasibility since the rents cannot 
be increased enough to support a higher loan that would be required in place of the tax 
credit equity.  Maximum allowable rents are set by IHDA as well as the marketplace and the 
proposed rents for the tax credit eligible units are at the maximum allowable as of 2010.   

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 

Developing the project will be a significant challenge, and in direct contrast with 
conventional wisdom, the smaller 50‐unit project is more financially feasible.  The smaller 
project has a lower development cost, along with a much smaller Net Operating Income, 
resulting in a much smaller first mortgage.   However, because the remaining financing 
sources are capped per project (sometimes in writing and sometimes in practice), the 
amount required in Cook County HOME funds for the 100‐unit building may be difficult to 
obtain.  This means that it may not be possible to pull together all of the necessary financing 
sources for a larger project.   

1
A unit count somewhere between 50 and 100 would probably be preferable.  If land costs 
can be reduced through a straight donation, a bargain sale or Village or Township 
assistance, the project would be able to generate additional equity through the Illinois 
Affordable Housing Tax Credit Program.  In addition, a reduction in land cost (which is a 
non‐eligible LIHTC expense), would help the project’s feasibility significantly. 

ASSUMPTIONS 

Some of the main assumptions within the attached pro formas are discussed below. 

Land 

Relatively high land costs in Oak Park make building affordable housing a challenge.  Even 
though land prices have come down in recent years, our research indicated that a realistic 
price is $75/square foot for a site along Madison Street or Roosevelt Road, with higher 
prices in and near downtown.   In addition, there are not many sites currently available of a 
sufficient size to build 50 or 100 new units.  This makes affordable senior housing deals 
difficult to finance since the cost of land is not eligible for LIHTCs.   

Units and Rents 

Many aspects of the projects are more or less dictated by the Illinois Housing Development 
Authority’s (“IHDA”) 2010 Qualified Allocation Plan (“QAP”).  They are not absolute 
requirements by IHDA, but if you hope to be competitive in the pursuit of the highly sought‐
after 9% LIHTCs, a developer is wise to incorporate them into a project.  One that impacts 
the unit and resident mix is that 10% of the units are reserved for residents at 30% or less 
of the Area Median Income (“AMI”).  Another is that at least 10% of the units are market 
rate and not subject to income guidelines.  The last to impact unit and rent mix is that three 
types of units need to be included, with at least 10% of the units within each unit type.   

With all of that in mind, the proposed unit and rent mixes for the two proposed projects are 
shown in the tables below. 

2
50­UNIT BUILDING UNIT MIX AND RENTS 

Unit Type  Number of Units  Area Median Income  Square Feet  Rent 

Studio  1  30%  450  $325 

1 Bedroom  2  30%  600  $340 

2 Bedroom  2  30%  800  $400 

Studio  3  60%  450  $700 

1 Bedroom  30  60%  600  $740 

2 Bedroom  7  60%  800  $880 

Studio  1  Market  450  $850 

1 Bedroom  2  Market  600  $950 

2 Bedroom  2  Market  800  $1,050 

TOTAL  50       

   

100­UNIT BUILDING UNIT MIX AND RENTS 

Unit Type  Number of Units  Area Median Income  Square Feet  Rent 

Studio  2  30%  450  $325 

1 Bedroom  4  30%  600  $340 

2 Bedroom  4  30%  800  $400 

Studio  6  60%  450  $700 

1 Bedroom  60  60%  600  $740 

2 Bedroom  14  60%  800  $880 

Studio  2  Market  450  $850 

1 Bedroom  4  Market  600  $950 

2 Bedroom  4  Market  800  $1,050 

TOTAL  100       

3
Construction Costs 

As mentioned above, the assumption is that land could be purchased for $75/square foot, 
and that a 50‐unit building could fit on a 25,000 square foot site and a 100‐unit building 
could fit on a 35,000 square foot site.  The building would probably be three or four stories, 
with a maximum of five.  Obviously much more detailed work with an architect would need 
to be done to verify these assumptions.  Based on past projects, they should be safe 
assumptions, as long as parking requirements are reasonable at 0.5 spaces per unit.  
Residents of senior housing, especially those in an urban location, have far fewer cars than 
residents of non‐age restricted apartments. 

The construction costs were estimated at $120/square foot, and the building size was 
estimated by taking the total square footage of the units and adding another 40% to that 
figure to account for common space such as community rooms, hallways, administration 
offices and laundry room(s). 

Financing Sources 

Nearly half of the financing sources under both scenarios would come from the sale of 
LIHTCs that need to be awarded by IHDA in a competitive process.  In addition, in each 
scenario, IHDA would need to contribute their maximum allowable amounts of HOME and 
Affordable Housing Trust Fund loans.  Each scenario would also need Cook County to 
contribute a HOME loan, and the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic 
Opportunity to award an energy grant that is available to environmentally responsible 
projects.  Lastly each scenario requires a grant from the Federal Home Loan Bank’s AHP 
(Affordable Housing) program.  Combining and coordinating all of these financing sources is 
an understandably difficult task, and a developer with a long track record of successful 
affordable buildings is needed to complete the task. 

   

4
Proposed Oak Park Township Senior Housing 50 Units

DEBT
Source Amount Term (Years) Amortization (Years) Interest Rate Debt Service Debt Service
Coverage Ratio
Conventional First Mortgage 380,000 15 35 7.00% 29,349 4.35
IHDA HOME 2,000,000 40 40 1.00% 20,000 2.59
IHDA Trust Fund 1,250,000 40 40 1.00% 12,500 2.06
Cook HOME 1,600,000 40 40 1.00% 48,729 1.15
DCEO Grant 150,000
FHLB-AHP Grant 300,000
Total 5,680,000 TOTAL Debt Service 110,578

EQUITY
Source Amount Raise
LIHTC 4,639,145 0.70

DEFERRED FEE
Source Amount
General Partner 338,669

TOTAL $10,657,814

5
Proposed Oak Park Township Senior Housing 50 Units
Tax Credits
Acquisition Total Depreciable 9%
Land 1,875,000
SubTotal 1,875,000
Construction
New Construction/Rehab 5,283,600 5,283,600 5,283,600
Demolition 100,000
Off-Site Work
General Requirements 317,016 317,016 317,016
Builders Profit 317,016 317,016 317,016
Builders Overhead 105,672 105,672 105,672
FF & E - - -
Performance Bond & Builders Risk 55,000 55,000 55,000
Construction Contingency 301,165 301,165 301,165
SubTotal 6,479,469
Third Parties
Legal-Transaction 75,000 75,000 37,500
Engineering 45,000 45,000 45,000
Cost certification 30,000
Appraisal 9,000 9,000 9,000
Market Study 9,000 9,000 9,000
Environmental 6,000 6,000 6,000
Survey 9,000 9,000 9,000
Title 20,000 18,000 18,000
Soils Test 15,000 15,000 15,000
Architect-Design 211,344 211,344 211,344
Architect- Supervision & Reimbursables 21,134 21,134 21,134
Building Permits 132,090 132,090 132,090
Utility Tap Fees - -
Impact Fees - - -
TIF Consultant
Consultant Fees - - -
Construction Period Insurance 15,000 15,000 15,000
Construction Period RE Taxes 20,000 20,000 20,000
Developer Fee 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,050,000
Soft Cost Contingency 25,000 25,000 25,000
SubTotal 1,692,568
Financing
Permanent Loan Origination Fees/Points 7,600
Construction Inspection Fees 1,900 1,900 1,900
Mortgage Insurance (MIP) - - -
Permanent Loan Examination Fee -
Permanent Loan Title & Recording
Permanent Loan Legal (Bank) 25,000
Bond Premium & Cost of Issuance -
Loan Credit Enhancement
Letter of Credit Fees
Credit Report
Construction Period Interest 208,762 208,762
SubTotal 243,262
Tax Credits & Syndication
Tax Credit Fees (Application) 500
Green Inspection Fee -
Tax Credit Reservation Fee 66,280
Tax Credit Compliance/Monitoring Fees -
Organizational Fees (Developer) 15,000
Legal Fees (Developer) 25,000
Syndicator Legal 15,000
SubTotal 121,780
Reserves
Initial Operating Deficit 40,130
Operating Reserve 105,604
Medicaid Delay Reserve (4 months) -
Working Capital -
Replacement Reserve 25,000
Insurance Escrow 15,000
RE Tax Escrow 40,000
Marketing 20,000
SubTotal 245,734

Total Development Cost 10,657,813 8,041,938 - 8,213,199


Total Development Cost Per Unit 213,156
Cost Per SF 220
- Historic Tax Credits
- Grants
= Estimated Eligible Basis - 8,213,199
Qualified Census Tract No 1.00 1.00
x 1.3 for High Cost Adjustment - 8,213,199
x Applicable Fraction 90% 90%
= Qualified Basis - 7,364,458
x Tax Credit Rate 0.034 0.0900
= Tax Credit Allocation - 662,801

Total Annual Allocation 662,801

6
Proposed Oak Park Township Senior Housing 50 Units

Max Allow. 95% of Max Monthly Annual


# of units Unit Type Square Feet Total Square Feet AMI Base Rent Util Allowance* Gross Rent Rent Allow. Rent Income Income
1 Studios 450 450 30% $ 325 $ 48 $ 373 $ 394 $ 374 $ 325 $ 3,900
2 1BR 600 1,200 30% $ 340 $ 60 $ 400 $ 422 $ 401 $ 680 $ 8,160
2 2BR 800 1,600 30% $ 400 $ 80 $ 480 $ 507 $ 482 $ 800 $ 9,600
3 Studios 450 1,350 60% $ 700 $ 48 $ 748 $ 790 $ 751 $ 2,100 $ 25,200
30 1BR 600 18,000 60% $ 740 $ 60 $ 800 $ 845 $ 803 $ 22,200 $ 266,400
7 2BR 800 5,600 60% $ 880 $ 80 $ 960 $ 1,015 $ 964 $ 6,160 $ 73,920
1 Studios 450 450 Market $ 850 $ 48 $ 898 $ 850 $ 10,200
2 1BR 600 1,200 Market $ 950 $ 60 $ 1,010 $ 1,900 $ 22,800
2 2BR 800 1,600 Market $ 1,050 $ 80 $ 1,130 $ 2,100 $ 25,200
50 31,450 $ 37,115 $ 445,380

Applicable Fraction Calculation


Total Units Total Residential SF
50 31,450
Low Income Units 45 28,200 Low Income SF
90.00% 89.67%

89.67% <= App Fraction

*Owner pays for electricity, Owner pays heat

7
Proposed Oak Park Township Senior Housing 50 Units

Income
Gross Potential Rents - Residential 445,380
Other Residential Income- Misc. 4,000
Gross Income - Residential 449,380
Vacancy and Uncollectable 6% 26,963
Rental Allowance
Effective Gross Income - Residential 422,417
Gross Potential Rents - Commercial
Vacancy and Uncollectable 25% -
Effective Gross Income - Commercial -
Other Income
Effective Gross Income (EGI) 422,417

Administrative Expense
Management Fee 5% 21,121
Administrative Salaries 52,000
Office Expense 12,000
Legal/Accounting 12,000
Advertising/Marketing 2,000
LIHTC & IAHTC Compliance Fees 1,250
Total Administrative Expense 100,371

Operating Expense
Operating Expense Salaries -
Janitorial Supplies 3,000
Cable TV Expense 5,000
Exterminating 3,000
Rubbish Removal 8,000
Total Operating Expense 19,000

Maintenance Expense
Maintenance Salaries 45,500
Security Expense -
Maintenance Supplies 5,000
Grounds and Pool Maintenance 2,500
Elevator Maintenance 6,000
Heating and Air Conditioning Maintenance 4,000
Plumbing and Electrical Maintenance 4,200
Painting, Decorating, Carpeting 3,240
Misc. -
Total Maintenance Expense 70,440

Utilities
Gas/Fuel Oil 15,000
Electric 5,000
Water/Sewer 15,000
Total Utility Expense 35,000

Taxes, Insurance
Real Estate Taxes 40,000
Insurance 15,000
Total Taxes and Insurance 55,000

Reserves
Replacement Reserve 15,000
FF&E Reserve (Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment) -
Tax and Insurance Escrow
Operating Reserve
Total Reserves 15,000

Total Expenses 294,811 5,896 <= Expenses Per Unit


Net Operating Income 127,606

8
Proposed Oak Park Township Senior Housing 100 Units

DEBT
Source Amount Term (Years) Amortization (Years) Interest Rate Debt Service DSCR
Conventional First Mortgage 2,975,000 15 35 7.00% 229,771 1.79
IHDA HOME 2,000,000 40 40 1.00% 20,000 1.65
IHDA Trust Fund 1,250,000 40 40 1.00% 12,500 1.57
Cook County HOME 3,150,000 40 40 1.00% 95,935 1.15
DCEO Grant 250,000
FHLB-AHP Grant 300,000
Total 9,925,000 TOTAL Debt Service 358,206

EQUITY
Source Amount Raise
LIHTC 9,011,371 0.70

DEFERRED FEE
Source Amount
General Partner 550,683

TOTAL $19,487,054

9
Proposed Oak Park Township Senior Housing 100 Units
Tax Credits
Acquisition Total Depreciable 9%
Land 2,625,000
SubTotal 2,625,000
Construction
New Construction/Rehab 10,567,200 10,567,200 10,567,200
Demolition 125,000 -
Off-Site Work
General Requirements 634,032 634,032 634,032
Builders Profit 634,032 634,032 634,032
Builders Overhead 211,344 211,344 211,344
FF & E - - -
Performance Bond & Builders Risk 55,000 55,000 55,000
Construction Contingency 602,330 602,330 602,330
SubTotal 12,828,938
Third Parties
Legal-Transaction 75,000 75,000 37,500
Engineering 45,000 45,000 45,000
Cost certification 30,000
Appraisal 9,000 9,000 9,000
Market Study 9,000 9,000 9,000
Environmental 6,000 6,000 6,000
Survey 9,000 9,000 9,000
Title 20,000 18,000 18,000
Soils Test 15,000 15,000 15,000
Architect-Design 369,852 369,852 369,852
Architect- Supervision & Reimburseables 36,985 36,985 36,985
Building Permits 264,180 264,180 264,180
Utility Tap Fees - -
Impact Fees - - -
TIF Consultant
Consultant Fees - - -
Construction Period Insurance 25,000 25,000 25,000
Construction Period RE Taxes 40,000 40,000 40,000
Developer Fee 1,920,000 1,920,000 1,920,000
Soft Cost Contingency 25,000 25,000 25,000
SubTotal 2,899,017
Financing
Permanent Loan Origination Fees/Points 59,500
Construction Inspection Fees 14,875 14,875 14,875
Mortgage Insurance (MIP) - - -
Permanent Loan Examination Fee -
Permanent Loan Title & Recording
Permanent Loan Legal (Bank) 25,000
Bond Premium & Cost of Issuance -
Loan Credit Enhancement
Letter of Credit Fees
Credit Report
Construction Period Interest 405,512 405,512
SubTotal 504,887
Tax Credits & Syndication
Tax Credit Fees (Application) 500
Green Inspection Fee -
Tax Credit Reservation Fee 128,747
Tax Credit Compliance/Monitoring Fees -
Organizational Fees (Developer) 15,000
Legal Fees (Developer) 25,000
Syndicator Legal 15,000
SubTotal 184,247
Reserves
Initial Operating Deficit 53,757
Operating Reserve 211,209
Medicaid Delay Reserve (4 months) -
Working Capital -
Replacement Reserve 50,000
Insurance Escrow 25,000
RE Tax Escrow 80,000
Marketing 25,000
SubTotal 444,965

Total Development Cost 19,487,054 15,585,831 - 15,953,842


Total Development Cost Per Unit 194,871
Cost Per SF 201
- Historic Tax Credits
- Grants
= Estimated Eligible Basis - 15,953,842
Qualified Census Tract N 1.00 1.00
x 1.3 for High Cost Adjustment - 15,953,842
x Applicable Fraction 90% 90%
= Qualified Basis - 14,305,194
x Tax Credit Rate 0.034 0.0900
= Tax Credit Allocation - 1,287,467

Total Annual Allocation 1,287,467

10
Proposed Oak Park Township Senior Housing 100 Units

Max. Allow. 95% of Max. Monthly Annual


# of units Unit Type Sq Ft Total Square Feet AMI Base Rent Util Allowance* Gross Rent Rent Allow. Rent Income Income
2 Studios 450 900 30% $ 325 48 $ 373 $ 394 $ 374 $ 650 $ 7,800
4 1BR 600 2,400 30% $ 340 60 $ 400 $ 422 $ 401 $ 1,360 $ 16,320
4 2BR 800 3,200 30% $ 400 80 $ 480 $ 507 $ 482 $ 1,600 $ 19,200
6 Studios 450 2,700 60% $ 700 48 $ 748 $ 790 $ 751 $ 4,200 $ 50,400
60 1BR 600 36,000 60% $ 740 60 $ 800 $ 845 $ 803 $ 44,400 $ 532,800
14 2BR 800 11,200 60% $ 880 80 $ 960 $ 1,015 $ 964 $ 12,320 $ 147,840
2 Studios 450 900 Mkt $ 850 48 $ 898 $ 1,700 $ 20,400
4 1BR 600 2,400 Mkt $ 950 60 $ 1,010 $ 3,800 $ 45,600
4 2BR 800 3,200 Mkt $ 1,050 80 $ 1,130 $ 4,200 $ 50,400
100 62,900 $ 74,230 $ 890,760

Applicable Fraction Calculation


Total Units Total Res Ft
100 62900
Low Income U 90 56400 Low Income SF
90.00% 89.67%

89.67% <= App Fraction

*Owner pays for electricity, Owner pays heat

11
Proposed Oak Park Township Senior Housing 100 Units

Income
Gross Potential Rents - Residential 890,760
Other Residential Income- Misc. 8,000
Gross Income - Residential 898,760
Vacancy and Uncollectable 6% 53,926
Rental Allowance
Effective Gross Income - Residential 844,834
Gross Potential Rents - Commercial
Vacancy and Uncollectable 25% -
Effective Gross Income - Commercial -
Other Income
Effective Gross Income (EGI) 844,834

Administrative Expense
Management Fee 5% 42,242
Administrative Salaries 52,000
Office Expense 14,000
Legal/Accounting 12,000
Advertising/Marketing 2,500
LIHTC & IAHTC Compliance Fees 2,500
Total Administrative Expense 125,242

Operating Expense
Operating Expense Salaries -
Janitorial Supplies 5,000
Cable TV Expense 7,000
Exterminating 6,000
Rubbish Removal 12,000
Total Operating Expense 30,000

Maintenance Expense
Maintenance Salaries 45,500
Security Expense -
Maintenance Supplies 8,000
Grounds and Pool Maintenance 3,000
Elevator Maintenance 6,000
Heating and Air Conditioning Maintenance 7,000
Plumbing and Electrical Maintenance 7,500
Painting, Decorating, Carpeting 5,500
Misc. -
Total Maintenance Expense 82,500

Utilities
Gas/Fuel Oil 25,000
Electric 10,000
Water/Sewer 25,000
Total Utility Expense 60,000

Taxes, Insurance
Real Estate Taxes 80,000
Insurance 25,000
Total Taxes and Insurance 105,000

Reserves
Replacement Reserve 30,000
FF&E Reserve (Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment) -
Tax and Insurance Escrow
Operating Reserve
Total Reserves 30,000

Total Expenses 432,742 4,327 <= Expenses Per Unit


Net Operating Income 412,093

12
Memorandum
To: Board Members of the Village of Oak Park and the Oak Park Housing Authority
From: Township Supervisor and Board of Trustees
Re: Senior Housing Market Study Presentation, May 11, 2010
Date: April 30, 2010

Oak Park Township, in partnership with the Village of Oak Park and the Oak Park Housing
Authority, utilized funding from the Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic
Opportunity to engage Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc. (VSKA) to prepare a market
analysis, including a survey of seniors living in Oak Park, to determine whether there is a
demand for additional senior housing in Oak Park.

VSKA conducted the following for this assignment:

ƒ Met with staff from Oak Park Township, the Village of Oak Park, and the Oak Park
Housing Authority
ƒ Visited all of the senior buildings in and near Oak Park and interviewed their managers or
marketing staff
ƒ Contacted nearby communities to see if there are any planned senior buildings
ƒ Contacted senior service providers in Oak Park
ƒ Prepared a demographic analysis of the senior population in and near Oak Park
ƒ Conducted a telephone survey of Oak Park seniors not currently living in designated
senior housing
ƒ Determined the demand for additional senior housing by type in Oak Park.

The attached report incorporates the results of these activities. In addition to the report, Valerie
Kretchmer of VSKA will attend the regular meeting of the Township Board of Trustees on May
11, 2010 at 7:00pm in the Township Board Room, 105 S Oak Park Avenue to discuss the
findings of the study. The Township Board of Trustees would like to invite the members of the
Village Board and the Housing Authority Board to attend the meeting to hear the presentation
and discuss the study.

After the presentation and discussion, the Township Board will decide whether to commission a
pro forma study of options for a new affordable housing development in Oak Park. The input of
board members from the other units involved in the market analysis would be welcome and
encouraged.

1
Memorandum
To: Board Members of the Village of Oak Park and the Oak Park Housing Authority
From: Township Supervisor and Board of Trustees
Re: Senior Housing Pro Forma, September 28, 2010
Date: September 15, 2010

Oak Park Township, in partnership with the Village of Oak Park and the Oak Park Housing
Authority, engaged Valerie S. Kretchmer Associates, Inc. (VSKA) to work with Chris Block of
Block Affordable Housing Consulting LLC, an Oak Park-based company, to develop a pro
forma for senior housing in Oak Park based on the market survey completed by VSKA earlier
this year. Development of the attached pro forma memo included the following tasks:

♦ Estimate land costs.


♦ Estimate typical unit sizes, size of public spaces, and total building size.
♦ Obtain from general contractors an estimate of the price per square foot for a mid or high
rise building.
♦ Prepare a rough financing structure.
♦ Estimate the soft costs and other fees for a project based on industry standards and
building size.
♦ Prepare a pro forma for a generic senior building that would be marketable in Oak Park.

The attached memo incorporates the results of these activities and summarizes the consultants’
conclusions. In addition to the report, Valerie Kretchmer of VSKA and Chris Block will attend
the regular meeting of the Township Board of Trustees on September 28, 2010 at 7:00pm in
the Township Board Room, 105 S Oak Park Avenue to discuss their findings. The Township
Board of Trustees would like to invite the members of the Village Board and the Housing
Authority Board to attend the meeting to hear the presentation and discuss the study. The input
of board members from the other units involved in the market analysis and pro forma would be
welcome and encouraged.