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© March 26, 2019 770-536-0309 • 800-336-1618

Addendum to March 2019 EWT

TWO SIMILAR TOPPING PROCESSES

The March 15 issue called for a 13+-month topping process and its final 5+-month top-to-top duration to end
between March 15 and March 22, 2019. It seems to have ended on March 21.
The topping process of 2018-2019 mirrors, to a striking degree, the topping process of 1999-2000. Figure 9
summarizes the similarities between these two periods.
The first peak of each
period made history. In the first
period, July 16, 1999 marked
the all-time high, which stands
to this day, in the S&P/gold
and S&P/CRB ratios, that is,
the S&P priced in terms of real
money (gold) and in terms of
commodities, as represented
by the CRB Index. (This dual
event was recorded in Figure 3,
Chapter 18 of Market Analysis
for the New Millennium, 2002.)
In the second period, January
26, 2018 marked the all-time
high, which stands to this day,
in the NYSE Composite Index.
The second peaks in both
periods occurred after the same
amount of time. The high for
the S&P on March 24, 2000
occurred 8 months and 8 days
after the first peak, and the high
for the DJIA on October 3, 2018
occurred 8 months and 8 days
after the first peak. The high
for the S&P/PPI ratio of March
24, 2000 was not exceeded for
more than sixteen years. The
DJIA top on October 3, 2018
has not been exceeded to date.

Figure 9
 The Elliott Wave Theorist—March 26, 2019

The last gasp of the third peak in the 1999-2000 period occurred at the intraday high for the NYSE Composite
index on September 11, 2000. That top was 5 months and 18 days after the second peak and 13 months and 26
days after the first peak. From the Dow’s high on October 3, 2018, identical durations project the last gasp of the
third peak in the 2018-2019 period to occur on March 21, 2019. Although all other indexes had already topped (see
Figure 7), the S&P and NASDAQ managed new closing and intraday highs for the month on the projected date.
The Major Market Index of 20 blue-chip stocks is the only index to make an all-time high this month, much as the
NYSE Composite was the only index to make an all-time high in September 2000.
As previously noted, if the main market indexes make new highs hereafter, our time analogy, and now these
identical spans, will become moot. As long as recent highs hold, however, we may assume that wave (3) down has
begun.

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