FLOOD AND SEVERE

POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOOD WATCH Decision Support Briefing #11
As of 5:00 AM July 22, 2019
in effect for portions of
the area this afternoon Current Hazards
through Tuesday
morning.

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE

WEATHER
Potential for severe
thunderstorms, mainly
this afternoon and
evening.
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 Flash Flood Watch
Decision Support Briefing #11
 In effect from noon today As of 5:00 AM July 22, 2019
through 8AM Tuesday for
northeast NJ, NYC, the Lower
Hudson Valley, and Nassau NY

 1.5-2 inches of rain, with

locally higher amounts
possible

 Potential for rapid flooding of

poor drainage, low-lying,
urban areas

 Potential for fast reacting

smaller rivers and streams to
flood
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 Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing

Flash Flooding is possible,

Flash Flood especially where multiple
storms move over the same NE New Jersey
Watch area. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 New York City
inches/hr. Total rainfall of 1.5 Lower Hudson Valley This afternoon through
to 2 inches, with locally Nassau County, NY Tue morning
higher amounts. Rapid
flooding of urban areas, low-
lying roads, and small rivers,
streams and creeks.

Slight risk of severe weather

Severe for the entire area, mainly for
Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Main threat will be damaging
wind gusts, though isolated
The entire tri-state This afternoon through
hail and weak/brief tornadoes
region the evening
are also possible.

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 Summary of Greatest Impacts
Flash Flood Watch: NE NJ, NYC, Lower Hudson Valley,
Nassau County, NY

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Severe Weather: Entire Tri-State Region

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

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 Severe Weather
SPC Convective Outlooks

Day 13
2
Hazards:
 Wind Gusts up to 65 mph
 Isolated potential for hail and/or a
weak/brief tornado

Impacts:
 Scattered downed trees and
powerlines

Timing and Location:

 This afternoon and evening across
the entire Tri-State area

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 Severe Weather

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 Flash Flooding
Day 1Excessive
Day 32 ExcessiveRainfall Outlook
Rainfall Outlook

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 Total Rainfall

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 Flash Flooding

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 Forecast Uncertainty or Scenarios

 Highest confidence in heavy rainfall across areas where Flash Flood

Watch is in effect. If the front shifts from forecast location, the axis of
heavy rainfall may shift as well.

 Heavy rainfall may continue across eastern Connecticut and Long

Island into Tuesday afternoon.

 Greatest potential for severe weather will be during the afternoon and
evening hours, but may continue into the overnight.

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 Event Summary

 Threat for heavy rainfall and potential flooding today into

tomorrow.

 Rain will be most likely between 2 pm today and 8 am Tuesday.

 Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce damaging winds, hail,

and even a brief/weak tornado.

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