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LONG TERM INVESTING
DATE – 10TH JULY 2019
There is lot of hopelessness along with fear towards small and mid caps in 2019.
The reason is the carnage in stock prices of many well-known companies. Retail
investors have taken the back foot and lost their faith and conviction towards
investing in small and mid caps due to existing pain in their portfolios.
Despite that we are quite excited about opportunities emerging in small and
mid cap space. You may argue that most of small and mid caps have wiped out
your hard earned gains over last couple of years. In fact those who invested in
small caps over last 2 years are sitting on significantly higher losses and may be
thinking to stay away from them.
However, we beg to differ. We firmly believe that these are the opportune times to invest in broader
markets instead of large caps. During bear phase in broader markets, negative sentiments around
small and mid caps have brought down excellent businesses down to historically low valuations. The
fall in stock prices of many small and mid caps by more than 50% from their peaks has not happened
for the first time. This has happened in past and companies with good business fundamentals have
always bounced back strongly. When overall market sentiments are negative like we are witnessing
now, quality businesses also face the heat. As bad stocks go down, good stocks go down with them
too. But good companies make a stronger come back with earning revival once economy cycle starts
its upturn.
2. Long Term Capital Gain: In Union Budget 2018-19, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's announcement to
tax LTCG stunned both markets and investors. The Finance Minister proposed to tax LTCG exceeding Rs
1 Lakh at the rate of 10% without allowing the benefit of any indexation. Imposition of Long term
capital gains tax while keeping STT intact has resulted in double taxation, this has impacted the overall
participation in Indian capital markets, by domestic as well as foreign investors.
3. Corporate Governance Concerns: Adding to the woes of mid and small cap stocks were corporate
governance issues coming up in individual stocks. These problems were contained not only to stocks
like PC Jewellers, Infibeam and Vakrangee but also to darlings of stock markets like Infosys, ICICI Bank,
Yes Bank, DHFL among others. However, mid cap and small cap category of stocks were the worst hit,
with investors pulling no stops while selling off their holdings in these stocks. Bad governance in a few
stocks definitely destroyed the value of majority of stocks in this category.
5. ILFS Default & Liquidity Crisis: NBFCs raise short-term loans of between three and six months
duration, using Commercial Papers (CPs). On the other hand, the businesses they lend to (home loans,
commercial purpose loans, vehicle loans etc.) are long-term ones. This is referred to as asset-liability
mismatch. To maintain their funding, NBFCs must keep issuing CPs at regular intervals and roll over
earlier loans. However since the IL&FS crisis erupted, banks have been averse to lending to the NBFC
sector, which has put them in a tight spot. Amidst all this, there were series of downgrades of NBFCs by
credit rating agencies which further dented market sentiments.
6. Companies with Pledged Shares: The fear around companies with high pledged holding began after
promoter of Essel Group failed to bring fresh shares as collateral to make up for the slump in prices of
the group stocks. Later, the shares of ADAG companies, Suzlon, Jain Irrigation, Cox & Kings witnessed
heavy selling as some lenders dumped their stock in open market due to unbearable debt and default
on payments. Institutions wish to stay away from companies where the promoter has huge borrowings
against the shares as there is fear that these companies are in a vulnerable position. Banking & financial
stocks like Yes Bank and DHFL continue to hit new lows on fears of default and contagion risks.
Moreover, below are the few announcements made in the budget which certainly qualify as steps in
the right direction.
Recapitalisation of banks to the tune of INR 70,000 crores
The Credit Guarantee Enhancement Corporation to be set up in FY20
The action plan put in place to deepen the market for long-term bonds
2% interest subvention for all GST registered MSMEs
Moreover, the focused impetus for sustainable job creation via targeted investment in infrastructure
will have a ripple effect on secondary and tertiary employment. Overall, It was an uneventful but
visionary budget marked with a long-term 10-year plan while retaining focus on immediate priorities.
A bull market is when everything in the economy is great, people are finding jobs, gross domestic
product (GDP) is growing, and stocks are rising. Things are just plain rosy! Picking stocks during a bull
market is easier because everything is going up. Bull markets cannot last forever though, and
sometimes they can lead to dangerous situations if stocks become overvalued. If a person is optimistic
and believes that stocks will go up, he or she is called a "bull" and is said to have a "bullish outlook”
A bear market is when the economy is bad, recession is looming and stock prices are falling. Bear
markets make it tough for investors to pick profitable stocks. One solution to this is to make money
when stocks are falling using a technique called short selling. Another strategy is to wait on the
sidelines until you feel that the bear market is nearing its end, only starting to buy in anticipation of a
bull market. If a person is pessimistic, believing that stocks are going to drop, he or she is called a
"bear" and said to have a "bearish outlook".
Chickens are afraid to lose anything. Their fear overrides their need to make profits and so they turn
only to money-market securities or get out of the markets entirely. While it's true that you should
never invest in something over which you lose sleep, you are also guaranteed never to see any return if
you avoid the market completely and never take any risk.
There are plenty of different investment styles and strategies out there. Even though the bulls and
bears are constantly at odds, they can both make money with the changing cycles in the market. Even
the chickens see some returns, though not a lot. The one loser in this picture is the pig. Make sure you
don't get into the market before you are ready. Be a long term discipline investor and continue to invest
systematically during bull as well as bear phase of market cycle and never invest in anything you do not
understand.
Many retail investors started investing in small and mid cap stocks during bull phase of broader market
(2014 – 2017) and getting worried now about their investments looking at losses they are bearing due
to carnage in stock prices during ongoing bear phase (2018 – 2019). Those who believe they made a
mistake by investing in small and mid caps and think to exit booking losses due to fear of further
loosing hard earned money, do think about this old stock market saying: "Bulls make money, bears
make money, but pigs just get slaughtered!"
The Indian stock market has offered great opportunities in small and mid cap space right now. Invest in
the best small and mid caps available at dirt-cheap now, and sit tight on them for the long-term. Do not
let the negative sentiment overwhelm you to sell the stocks of good companies at lower levels. Focus
on the fundamentals, and buy the stocks where quality meets value. If a company's fundamentals and
rationale to buy are intact, it simply makes sense to buy the stock or hold on to it if you have already
bought. In such a situation, fall in stock prices only adds to the margin of safety. You could buy more
and maximise your potential return while minimising risk.
Let us share some valuable insights to make you understand why we believe buying the right set of
small and mid caps now can be a massive wealth creating opportunity in the long run. In next slides, we
have covered long term monthly charts of some of our own small and mid cap stocks recommendations
(released under Hidden Gems and Value Picks) over last 9 years which at one point of time were down
by 50% to 60% from their peak but turned out to be multibagger stocks in longer run delivering 5x to
60x returns. Hence the final advise, do not stop investing in small caps looking at these turbulent times,
its time to do the opposite, this phase has happened before and small and mid caps have always
bounced back. Good sentiments as well as bad sentiments do not last forever.
Above is the monthly chart of Camlin Fine Sciences which we recommended as Hidden Gem on 27
Mar’11 at 6.05*. The stock made life time high of 155 in Jan 2018 and later crashed to lows of 36.70. At
current price of around 60, it is still a 10-Bagger for investors who bought it during lows of 2011 or 2013
but those who invested later during 2015 – 2017 period are bearing losses as of now.
Above is the monthly chart of KMCH since Jan 2010. Kovai Medical stock price made a high of Rs. 176 in
Feb 2010 and low of Rs. 89.50 in 2012 when overall market sentiments were negatives. Later in 2014,
stock rallied more than 400% in matter of 12 months. Kovai Medical price fell by 56% from high of 1480
in Jan’18, a 8-Bagger stock even after severe fall in price for those who invested in the company in 2012.
Let us look at monthly chart of Roto Pumps since Jan 2010, stock which turned 10-Bagger in matter of
16 months. Roto Pumps which witnessed correction of 60% in stock price in 2011 from high of 2010,
rallied by more than 900% later in 2014. At current levels, Roto Pumps is a 13-Bagger stock for investors
who bought it at lows of 2011.
Above is the monthly chart of Acrysil from Jan 2010. Acrysil stock price fell by 48% over 2 years from its
peak of 2010. With improvement in fundamentals and start of bull cycle, stock delivered 588% returns
within one year. It is still a 9-Bagger stock for investors who bought it in 2012 or 2013 and a 4-Bagger for
those who invested at high in Jan 2010 and later experienced negative returns for nearly 4 years.
Above is the monthly chart of TCPL Packaging since Jan 2010. In 2014 with start of bull cycle in broader
market, stock delivered 1100% returns in 2 years, turning 12-Bagger stock from initial high of Nov 2010
and 22-Bagger from lows of 2011. TCPL Packaging is down by 60% from its all time high but it is still a 5-
Bagger stock for investors who bought it at highs of 2010 and still holding it.
Rane Brake Lining is our Hidden Gem stock recommended on 31 May 2014. During recent melt down in
broader markets, stock witnessed price correction of 67% over last 2 years. Even when stock is down
from all time high of 1450 hitting recent lows of 505, it is a 4-Bagger stock from highs of Nov 2010.
Those who invested at high of Nov’10 were sitting on losses in the same stock for more than 3 years.
Above is the monthly chart of Visaka Industries since Jan 2010. Between Feb’16 to Jan’18, stock turned
9-Bagger delivering 853% returns in 2 years. Since then stock price has corrected by 61% making recent
lows of 328 but is still a 5-Bagger stock for investors who invested in the same company 7 to 8 years
back during 2011 – 2012 and a 2 to 3-Bagger for those who invested in 2015 - 2016.
Stylam Industries has delivered maximum returns of 6304% in last 9 years. A mind boggling mega 64-
Bagger stock which moved from lows of 13.35 (Nov 2011) to high of 855 (July 2017). We recommended
Stylam Industries as Hidden Gem on 08 May 2016 and advised to book full profits around 800 levels
considering expensive valuations of the company.
Aurobindo Pharma, a well known company from pharma sector, was recommended as our Value Pick
stock on 27 Jan 2013. Stock which made low of 41.52* witnessing fall of 70% from its peak of Jan 2011
later delivered 1200% returns in matter of 2.5 years. Aurobindo Pharma is still a 15-Bagger stock for
investors who invested in the company during lows of 2011.
Mindtree made
high of 186.22*
in Jan 2010
Made low of 399 on Nov 2016, stock
price fell by 50% from high of 2015
Let us look at monthly chart of our another Value Pick stock – Mindtree recommended on 23 Mar 2014.
Mindtree also witnessed severe correction of 61% from its peak of Jan 2010 and tested patience of
investors for nearly 4 years. Those who stay invested and sit patiently on the stock were rewarded over
next 2 years as stock rallied from 195* to 795* delivering more than 300% returns.
Above is the monthly chart of Heritage Food of last 9 years. During bear phase of 2011 – 2012, stock
price fell by 52% from its peak price of 2010. However, the same company delivered 525% during bull
phase in matter of 30 months. Stock made all time high of 884 in Oct 2017 turning mega 28-Bagger
stock from lows of Jun 2012.
Can Fin Homes witnessed severe correction of 67% from its peak during last year. However, the same
stock created significant wealth for investors who invested in the company during beginning of this
decade. Even after severe correction in stock price over last 2 years, stock is a 12-Bagger for investors
who invested in the company at high of 2010 and a 20-Bagger who invested at lows of 2012.
Above is the monthly chart of Sonata Software since Jan 2010. The stock price fell by 76% in 2 years
from high of 69 made in April 2010. Investors who bought at highs of Apr 2010 were in losses for almost
5 years but those who held it tightly were rewarded handsomely over next 4 years. Sonata Software
made all time high of 428.40 in Sept 2018 turning 7-Bagger for those who entered at highs of 2010.
Looking at long term charts of most of the companies with good businesses, you will realise that
investors who entered in market by investing in small and mid caps during last 2 to 3 years have pain in
their portfolio however those who invested in bad phase of market in 2011 - 2013 like that of today are
still holding plenty of multibaggers in their portfolio. That is why its important to invest in equities
keeping a real long term view. In fact, during turbulent times, we must increase investments / equity
allocation in small / mid size companies which have good business fundamentals with better earning
visibility and robust cash flows from their operations to get rewarded in big way in long run.
Considering current situation as one of the most opportune time to invest in small and mid caps, we
will release next issue of our Special Report - Potential 5-Bagger Stocks in 5 Years during this month and
share with our Hidden Gems, Value Picks and Wealth-Builder members. If you wish to receive the
same, you can opt for our annual services under ongoing Saral Gyan 9th Anniversary offer (closes on 31
July 2019). Click here to know more about the offer.
We released our 1st issue of Special Report on 26 July 2013 and most of the selected stocks turned out
to multibaggers in 2014 with start of bull run in broader markets. Click here to check out our special
report update - 5 Hidden Gems – Potential 5-Baggers within 5 Years released on 20 April 2014.
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