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Tom Ritchey
Swedish Defense Research Agency
SE-172 90 Stockholm, Sweden
ritchey@swemorph.com
Abstract
Morphological analysis (MA), pioneered by Fritz Zwicky at the California Institute of Technology in the
1930s and 40s, was developed as a method for structuring and investigating the total set of relationships
contained in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, problem complexes. During the past ten years, MA has
been extended, computerized and applied in developing futures scenarios, structuring and analyzing
complex policy spaces, and modeling strategy alternatives. This article outlines the fundamentals of the
morphological approach and describes recent applications in strategy modeling.
Historically, scientific knowledge develops through cycles For example, suppose that we wished to review and re-
of analysis and synthesis: every synthesis is built upon the conceptualize the Swedish national bomb shelter program
results of a proceeding analysis, and every analysis since the end of the cold war (a task we actually did for the
requires a subsequent synthesis in order to verify and Swedish Rescue Services Board in the middle of the
correct its results (Ritchey, 1991). However, analysis and 1990's). This is a complex policy issue, which contains a
synthesis – as basic scientific methods – say nothing about number of disparate dimensions or variables: financial,
a problem having to be quantifiable. technical, political, geographical, ethical, etc. As an
example, consider the following dimensions:
Complex social-political systems and policy fields can be
analyzed into any number of non-quantified variables and 1. What size of cities should we concentrate on?
ranges of conditions. Similarly, sets of non-quantified 2. Who should we be sheltering?
conditions can be synthesized into well-defined 3. How big (or small) and how many people should
relationships or configurations, which represent “solution we pack into such shelters?
spaces”. In this context, there is no fundamental difference 4. Under what circumstances should we take up new
between quantified and non-quantified modeling. construction?
5. What level of maintenance?
Morphological analysis – extended by the technique of 6. What is the point (philosophy) of the shelter
internal "cross consistency assessment” (CCA, see below) program?
– is a method for rigorously structuring and investigating
the internal properties of inherently non-quantifiable With these 6 dimensions, a morphological field like the
problem complexes, which contain any number of one shown in Figure 1 could be created.
disparate parameters. It encourages the investigation of
boundary conditions and it virtually compels practitioners If a morphological field is small enough, one can examine
to examine numbers of contrasting configurations and all of the configurations in the field, in order to establish
policy solutions. Finally, although judgmental processes which of them are possible, viable, practical, interesting,
may never be fully traceable in the way, for example, a etc., and which are not. In doing so, we mark out in the
mathematician formally derives a proof, MA goes a long field a relevant “solution space". The “solution space” of a
way in providing as good an audit trail as one can hope for. Zwickian morphological field consists of the subset of
configurations, which satisfy some criteria -- usually the
The morphological approach criteria of internal consistency.
This is achieved by a process of cross-consistency quadratic polynomial. Naturally, there are practical limits
assessment: all of the parameter values in the reached even with quadratic growth. The point, however, is
morphological field are compared with one another, pair- that a morphological field involving as many as 100,000
wise, in the manner of a cross-impact matrix (see Figure 2, formal configurations can require no more than few
following page). As each pair of conditions is examined, a hundred pair-wise evaluations in order to create a solution
judgment is made as to whether – or to what extent – the space.
pair can coexist, i.e. represent consistent relationship. Note
that there is no reference here to causality, but only to When this solution space (or outcome space) is
internal consistency. synthesized, the resultant morphological field becomes a
flexible model, in which anything can be "input" and
There are two types of inconsistencies involved here: anything "output". Thus, with computer support, the field
purely logical contradictions (i.e. those based on the nature can be turned into a laboratory with which one can
of the concepts involved); and empirical constraints (i.e. designate one or more variables as inputs, in order to
relationships judged be highly improbable or implausible examine outputs or solution alternatives (see Figures 3 and
on empirical grounds). Normative constraints can also be 4, below).
applied, although these must be used sparingly, and one
must be very careful not to allow prejudice to rule such The morphological approach has several advantages over
judgments. less structured approaches. Zwicky called MA “totality
research” which, in an “unbiased way attempts to derive all
This technique of using pair-wise consistency relationships the solutions of any given problem”. It seeks to be
between conditions, in order to weed out internally integrative and to help discover new relationships or
inconsistent configurations, is made possible by a principle configurations, which might be overlooked in other – less
of dimensionally inherent in the morphological approach. structured – methods. Importantly, it encourages the
While the number of configurations in a morphological identification and investigation of boundary conditions, i.e.
field grows exponentially with each new parameter, the the limits and extremes of different parameters within the
number of pair-wise relationships between conditions problem space. For Zwicky, the whole point of
grows in proportion to the triangular number series -- a morphological analysis and systematic “complete field
Figure 2: Cross-consistency matrix.
coverage” is to push consciousness to the limits of the complex systems involving a wide range of disparate, non-
conceivable and to facilitate discovery (Zwicky & Wilson, quantified variables. Such laboratories have been
1967). developed as instruments for inter alia: generating threat
scenarios and strategy alternatives for the Swedish Armed
The method also has definite advantages for scientific Forces; identifying alternative long-term social
communication and – notably – for group work. As a evolutionary trends for the Swedish Nuclear Waste
process, the method demands that parameters, conditions Management agency; evaluating risk and alternative
and the issues underlying these be clearly defined. Poorly preparedness measures for terrorist actions involving
defined parameters become immediately (and chemical and biological agents.
embarrassingly) evident when they are cross-referenced
and assessed for internal consistency. We have found MA especially suitable in pitting strategy
models against scenarios. Thus in such studies, we
Computer Aided Morphological Analysis develop two complementary morphological fields: one for
generating different possible scenarios based on factors
The Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI) has utilized which cannot be directly controlled (an "external world"
morphological analysis in some 40 projects during the past field); and one for modeling strategy or system variables
10 years. For this purpose, we have developed software to which can -- more or less -- be controlled (an "internal
support the entire analysis-synthesis cycle, which MA world" field).
involves -- the so-called MA/Casper system.
MA-projects typically involve developing computerized
laboratories for generating scenarios and modeling
These two fields can then be linked by cross-consistency systems. From the right, the properties of current and
assessments in order to establish which strategies would be planed artillery systems are expressed.
most effective and flexible for different ranges of
scenarios. The marked configuration shows a designated scenario
(scenario 3) and its situational demands as "input"; with
Figure 3 is an overlay model, which pits tactical scenarios systems and system-properties as "output".
against a range of artillery systems. From the left, tactical
scenarios are expressed as demands placed on artillery
Figure 4: Preparedness assessment for accident involving toxic condensed gas (e.g. ammonia).
The model is composed of two linked fields: a 6-parameter As is the case with all methodologies, the output of a
resource field on the left, and a 3-parameter scenario- morphological analysis is no better than the quality of its
specific response field on the right. The response field can input. However, even here the morphological approach has
be changed in order to express different accident scenarios some advantages. It expressly provides for a good deal of
and chemical releases. A rescue service "clicks" in its in-built ”garbage detection”, since poorly defined
current level of resources (red field) and is presented with parameters and incomplete ranges of conditions are
an expert-judged response preparedness level (dark blue). immediately revealed when one begins the task of cross-
The light blue field shows what would be required in the consistency assessment. These assessments simply cannot
form of improved resources in order to increase response be made until the morphological field is well defined and
levels. In this case, the resource field is treated as "input", the working group is in agreement about what these
and the response field as "output". The model can also be definitions mean. This type of garbage detection is
employed the other way around: a response level can be something that strategy analysis and futures studies
the designated as input, in order to see what level of certainly need more of.
preparedness resources would be required.
Conclusions
References
Zwicky, F. (1969). Discovery, Invention, Research -
Bailey, K. (1994). Typologies and Taxonomies - An Through the Morphological Approach, Toronto: The
Introduction to Classification Techniques, Sage University Macmillan Company.
Papers: Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks.
Zwicky, F. & Wilson A. (eds.)(1967). New Methods of
Coyle, R. G., Crawshay, R. and Sutton, L. (1994). Futures Thought and Procedure: Contributions to the Symposium
Assessments by Field Anomaly Relaxation, Futures 26(1), on Methodologies. Berlin: Springer
25-43.