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com
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ScienceDirect
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Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
Procedia Engineering 00 (2017)000–000
Procedia Engineering 00 (2017)000–000 www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
ScienceDirect www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia
Procedia Engineering 206 (2017) 1716–1721

International Conference on Industrial Engineering, ICIE 2017

International Conference on Industrial Engineering, ICIE 2017
Remaining Vehicles Useful Lifetime Estimation Based on
Remaining Operation
Vehicles Useful Lifetime
Conditions Estimation Based on
Measurement
Operation Conditions Measurement
V.A. Kalmakov*, A.A. Andreev, A.S. Martyanov
V.A. Kalmakov*, A.A. Andreev, A.S. Martyanov
South Ural State University, 76, Lenin Avenue, Chelyabinsk 454080, The Russian Federation
South Ural State University, 76, Lenin Avenue, Chelyabinsk 454080, The Russian Federation

Abstract
Abstract
The article describes a prognostic approach to estimating the remaining useful lifetime of cars and trucks based on the known
monitoring data. The aalgorithm
The article describes prognosticforapproach
the calculation of remaining
to estimating useful lifetime
the remaining useful uses the information
lifetime about the
of cars and trucks technical
based on the state
knownof
the vehicles obtained from sensors of onboard measuring system. The remaining useful lifetime prediction
monitoring data. The algorithm for the calculation of remaining useful lifetime uses the information about the technical state ofis based on the
comparison
the vehiclesofobtained
the current
fromtechnical
sensors state of a vehicle
of onboard with the
measuring expected
system. Thestate which isuseful
remaining determined by prediction
lifetime the mathematical
is basedmodel of
on the
wear for given
comparison mileage.
of the currentThe result ofstate
technical the of
comparison
a vehicle is used
with thefor the evaluation
expected of theisoperation
state which determinedconditions that allows predicting
by the mathematical model of
the
wearremaining useful lifetime
for given mileage. of vehicle.
The result The proposed
of the comparison is usedapproach is well suited
for the evaluation of thetooperation
be integrated into that
conditions onboard
allowsautomobile
predicting
equipment and may be applicable to a wide variety of automotive, aircrafts and similar industries.
the remaining useful lifetime of vehicle. The proposed approach is well suited to be integrated into onboard automobile
© 2017 Theand
equipment Authors. Published
may bePublished
applicable bytoElsevier B.V. of automotive, aircrafts and similar industries.
a wide variety
© 2017 The Authors.
Peer-review under responsibility by
of Elsevier Ltd. committee
the scientific of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering.
© 2017 The
Peer-review Authors. Published
under responsibility by
of Elsevier B.V.
the scientific committee of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering
Keywords: Remaining useful lifetime estimation.
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering.
Keywords: Remaining useful lifetime estimation.

1. Introduction
1. Introduction
One of the most important tasks in cars and trucks service is to keep the technical state on the required level [1-
3]. One
The of
complexity of this process
the most important tasks can be explained
in cars and trucksby the need
service is toofkeep
taking
the operating conditions
technical state on theofrequired
particular truck
level [1-
into account
3]. The [4] andofrequirements
complexity to fulfil
this process can the maintenance
be explained by the need in accordance with these
of taking operating requirements.
conditions An onboard
of particular truck
diagnostic
into accountsystem [5] for
[4] and estimationtooperation
requirements fulfil theconditions
maintenanceand itsin influence
accordance onwith
vehicle state
these should help to
requirements. Ansolve this
onboard
problem.
diagnosticThis system
system should
[5] for be ableoperation
estimation to detect the wear ofand
conditions partsitsand units ofontrucks
influence vehicleandstate
carsshould
based on thetousage
help solve data
this
measured by sensors
problem. This system[6]. The be
should basic
ablemethod [7]the
to detect forwear
determining
of parts theandvehicle
units ofstate is to
trucks usecars
and thebased
mathematical model
on the usage of
data
wear [8], which
measured allows
by sensors calculating
[6]. The basicthe remaining
method [7] foruseful lifetimethe
determining of parts andstate
vehicle unitsisbased
to useon
themeasured data. model of
mathematical
wear [8], which allows calculating the remaining useful lifetime of parts and units based on measured data.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-909-071-2344.

E-mail address:author.
* Corresponding my.com@yandex.ru
Tel.: +7-909-071-2344.
E-mail address: my.com@yandex.ru
1877-7058 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Peer-review
1877-7058 ©under
2017responsibility
The Authors. of the scientific
Published committee
by Elsevier B.V.of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering .
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering .

1877-7058 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the International Conference on Industrial Engineering.
10.1016/j.proeng.2017.10.703
 V.A. Kalmakov et al. / Procedia Engineering 206 (2017) 1716–1721 1717
2 V.A. Kalmakov, A.A. Andreev, A.S. Martyanov / Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

2. Task formulation

Remaining useful lifetime according to its definition is the time from the moment of controlling the technical
state of the object to the moment of reaching the limit state. Guideline RD 50-490-84 "Methodical instructions.
Technical diagnostics. Methods of predicting of remaining useful lifetime of machines and components by indirect
parameters" can be used to predict the remaining useful lifetime of parts and units of vehicles, equipment and
instruments [9]. This guideline provides methods for remaining useful lifetime assessment in different typical
situations occurring in testing and operation, differing in type and amount of information available for processing.
Guideline is designed for testing laboratories and repair services staff, which deal with the forecasting of technical
state and residual resource, time and volume of repairs.
Based on the definition, it is necessary to know the limit state of the object to calculate its remaining useful
lifetime [10-12]. A value of mileage equal to an expected useful lifetime of major parts and units of the truck can be
used as its limiting state. Time of measurement of technical state is the time of acquiring the information from on-
board measuring system sensors, which is used to determine the object technical state. Technical state is described
by state vector which is a set of object technical state parameters; each of them describes the operation of specific
unit or system of the vehicle.
Among the technical state parameters both direct and indirect parameters can be large [13]. Direct technical state
parameter is a parameter, which directly characterizes the specific property of object or its part and determines its
limiting state [14]. Indirect technical state parameter is a parameter which is related to a direct parameter with a
deterministic or stochastic dependence and varies when the direct parameter changes.
Forecasting of the remaining useful lifetime of object based on indirect parameters is possible if the following
conditions are met simultaneously [15]:
 Physical processes that lead to marginal failures, as well as mathematical models of changes of direct (structural)
and indirect (diagnostic) technical state parameters are known;
 Limit values that determine the object lifetime are set for each direct technical state parameter;
 Parameters that reflect individual characteristics of an object can be logged during the monitoring of changes in
the technical state of an object;
 Information about functional and regression relationships between direct and indirect technical state parameters is
available;
 Dependencies between the expected values of direct and indirect technical state parameters are monotonous and
continuous.
The assessment of the technical state of a truck and its remaining useful lifetime can be based on determining the
deviation of the current state vector from the basic state vector and subsequent building of the wear curve [16]. The
basic state vector at given time is a state vector corresponding to the operation mode, when the limit state will not be
reached until expected operating mileage. The wear curve is a curve that describes the change in the state parameter
from the mileage. The difference between the current mileage and the value of the mileage at the intersection of the
wear curve and the expected operating mileage represents remaining useful lifetime of truck. A method based on the
approximation of changes in technical state is the most suitable for practical application [17].

3. Algorithm overview

The proposed algorithm for determining the technical state of truck and its remaining useful lifetime is based on
the comparison of current vehicle state with expected state. The current state of vehicle is determined by processing
the information from onboard measuring system sensors while the expected state is determined using the
mathematical model of wear for the current mileage. The comparison of vehicle current state and expected state
allows determining operation conditions and forecasting the remaining useful lifetime of truck or car on this basis.
The proposed algorithm for determining the technical state of vehicle and its remaining useful lifetime performs
the estimation the deviation of the current state vector from the basic state vector and the calculation of remaining
useful lifetime.
Fig. 1 shows the functional structure of algorithm for determining the technical state and remaining useful
lifetime.
1718 V.A. Kalmakov et al. / Procedia Engineering 206 (2017) 1716–1721
V.A. Kalmakov, A.A. Andreev, A.S. Martyanov / Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000 3

Fig. 1. Functional structure of algorithm for determining the technical state and remaining useful lifetime.

The remaining useful lifetime estimation starts with the calculation of the current diagnostic parameters based on
the information from the onboard measuring system. Calculated parameters are considered together with current
external conditions, such as ambient temperature, engine temperature, engine load [18].

Pi  f ( Si , T AMB , TENG ,  ACC ,...), (1)

where Pi – state parameter; Si – current mileage, km; TAMB. – ambient temperature, ОС; TENG. – engine temperature,
О
С; ACC. – accelerator pedal position.
Expected values of diagnostic parameters are calculated using the mathematical model of wear [19], which is a
set of dependencies of state parameters from the mileage for different external conditions. The model of wear is
based on the data obtained during the running tests of trucks.

Pi*  f i ( Fi ( Si ), T AMB , TENG ,  ACC ,...), (2)

where Pi* – state parameter estimation based on the mathematical model of wear; fi – function for selection of the
state parameter dependency for current external conditions; Fi(Si) – state parameter dependency from the mileage.
The next step of algorithm for determining the remaining useful lifetime is the computation of the current
diagnostic parameter value deviation from its expected value, which is calculated using the mathematical model of
wear:

P
i Pi*  Pi (3)

This deviation is then used to calculate the correction assessment for the remaining useful lifetime using PID
control [20]:

 Pi
Si  K P   Pi  K I   PdS
i i  KD  , (4)
dSi

where Si – correction assessment of remaining useful lifetime, km, KP – proportional coefficient, KI – integral
coefficient, KD – differential coefficient.
The remaining useful lifetime estimation is calculated using the following equation:
 4 V.A.Andreev,
V.A. Kalmakov, A.A. KalmakovA.S.etMartyanov
al. / Procedia Engineering
/ Procedia 206 (2017)
Engineering 1716–1721
00 (2017) 000–000 1719

Li*  L 0   Si  Si  (5)

where Li* – remaining useful lifetime estimation, km; L0 – assigned mileage, km.
Block diagram of the model implementing the proposed algorithm for determining the technical state and
remaining useful lifetime of vehicle is shown in Fig. 2. The model uses information from onboard measuring system
sensors, current mileage and assigned mileage as an input data.

Fig. 2. Block diagram of the model implementing the algorithm for determining the technical state and remaining useful lifetime.

Data from onboard measuring system sensors related to diagnostic parameters and external conditions (current
mileage, ambient temperature, engine temperature, position of the accelerator pedal) is processed by "current
parameters measurement" block and "external conditions measurement" block, respectively. These blocks perform
the initial processing of the input data. After initialization the information from sensors is used to calculate vehicle
state parameters by "current state parameter calculation" block. Coincidentally with this, expected state parameters
are calculated for current external conditions using the mathematical model of wearing and ageing by "expected
state calculation" block. Deviation of the current state parameter from its expected value is processed by the PID
control, which takes into account the dynamics of this deviation and calculates the correction assessment for the
remaining useful lifetime. The remaining useful lifetime finally is estimated as difference between assigned mileage
and current mileage and the correctional assessment.

3.1. Algorithm implementation.

To test the algorithm for determining the technical state and remaining useful lifetime the simulation model was
implemented using MATLAB Simulink. The block diagram of the model is shown in Fig. 3. The model consists of
the following blocks:
 "Mileage" – block simulating the information of the current mileage.
 "Sensors" – block simulating signals from onboard measuring system sensors. Data obtained during running tests
should be used in the simulation experiment.
 "State parameter calculation"– block calculating current and expected state parameters, as well as the deviation of
the current parameter value from the expected value according to equations (1) – (3).
 "Assigned lifetime" – block generating the value of the assigned mileage.
 "Expected remaining useful lifetime calculation" – block calculating the remaining useful lifetime without
considering the actual operating conditions and wear.
 "Correctional assessment calculation" – block calculating the correctional assessment for the remaining useful
lifetime according to the equation (4).
 "Remaining useful lifetime" – block calculating the remaining useful lifetime according to the equation (5).
 «Scope» – block indicating results of the simulation experiment.
1720 V.A. Kalmakov et al. / Procedia Engineering 206 (2017) 1716–1721
V.A. Kalmakov, A.A. Andreev, A.S. Martyanov / Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000 5

Fig. 3. Block diagram of the model for determining the technical state and remaining useful lifetime.

All the necessary parameters including simulation time, simulation step, equation solving methods etc. are
defined in the model settings.

3.2. Algorithm verification.

Verification of the proposed algorithm for determining the technical state and remaining useful lifetime of a truck
can be performed with the use of the developed model. Information obtained during running tests of trucks should
be used as an initial data for verification experiment. Experiment results are shown in Fig. 4.
Change of a diagnostic parameter from the mileage obtained during running tests of trucks is shown with the
solid line in the upper graph in Figure 5. During the intervals of heavy-duty operation the change of parameter was
happening faster than the expected rate corresponding to uniform wear (dashed line in the upper graph in Figure 5).
During other operation intervals the change was happening slower than the expected rate due to more light-duty
operation mode of the unit.
The remaining useful lifetime is estimated using proposed algorithm which takes into account operating
conditions of the truck is shown with solid line in the lower graph in Figure 5. The assigned remaining useful
lifetime (dashed line in the lower graph in Figure 5) shows a linear change. Operation under heavy-duty load leads
to accelerated wear of parts and units and reduces the estimated life assessment of truck. And vice versa, operation
under easy load increases the estimated life assessment of the truck.

Fig. 4. Results of simulating of remaining useful lifetime estimation based on operation conditions.
 V.A. Kalmakov et al. / Procedia Engineering 206 (2017) 1716–1721 1721
6 V.A. Kalmakov, A.A. Andreev, A.S. Martyanov / Procedia Engineering 00 (2017) 000–000

4. Conclusion

Model simulation results show that the proposed approach for estimating of remaining useful lifetime of cars and
trucks is well suited to prognostic the end of life or ageing failure. This approach is based on known monitoring
data and calculates the remaining useful lifetime using information about technical state of vehicles obtained from
sensors of onboard measuring system. The result of comparison is used for evaluation of operation conditions that
allows predicting the remaining useful lifetime. Proposed approach is well suited to be integrated into onboard
equipment and may be applied in wide variety of automotive, aircrafts and similar industries where it should lead to
reducing maintenance and repair costs because of timely scheduling for service. The work was supported by Act 211
Government of the Russian Federation, contract № 02.A03.21.0011.

Acknowledgements

The work was supported by Act 211 Government of the Russian Federation, contract № 02.A03.21.0011

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