Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
July 2019
Alpha Ideas 20:20
DISCLAIMER
▪ Fair to assume that I am biased as my clients and I are invested in the scrip
▪ Please do your own due diligence before taking any action on the stock
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Focus on niche chemicals (low volumes, low competition) but globally relevant (#1/#2/#3)
• Expanding into new products/chemistries with strong focus on profitability; incremental ROCE to be
better
• Cost to the end user is low as a % of the total cost; sticky clientele
• Stable margins – Contracts have price pass through clauses, thus neutralizing commodity prices
volatility
SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY
• India’s specialty chemicals industry is worth USD 25Bn. It grew by 13% annually over the last 10 years
• Increasingly global chemical manufacturers are looking to outsource manufacturing to countries like
India. Outsourcing driven by increased regulations and rising costs in the developed world
• China over the last decade or so has seen massive increase in chemical manufacturing, however with
the rise in regulatory uncertainty, compliance costs and wage bills, India is emerging as next best
alternative for chemical manufacturing
• Domestic specialty chemical demand is also expected to rise in-line with per capital GDP
DMCC: SHARE PERFORMANCE & KEY METRICS
Business prior to turnaround (< 2011) Turnaround Phase (2011-17) Growth Phase (2018 onwards)
• 50% of the business coming from • New CEO from the promoter family • Successfully merged & turned
loss making fertilizer business inducted – Bimal Goculdas around sister entity Borax Morarji-
to make a bigger chemical company
• No major focus on niche chemicals • Exited the loss making fertilizer with presence in Boron & Sulphur
business and started focusing on its chemistry
• Debt heavy balance sheet and strength – Sulphur chemistry
stretched working capital – net- • Portfolio of 35 products and
worth was eroded • Backward integrated strategy - goal growing, catering to diverse
to become globally relevant (in top industries
• Operating margins were always in 3) in chosen products
low single digits • Entering sulfones product and
• Strong relationships with global specialty products in boron segment
• Company overall was consistently agrochem & chemical giants
making losses since 2006 • Sales , EBITDA increased by 24% and • Lined up a capex of 100 Crores
72% respectively in this time which can generate a sales of more
than 200 Crores
• Repaired the balance sheet- became
debt free and started to pay
dividends after ~ 2 decades.
THE SHIFT TO SPECIALTY CHEMICALS
55%
43%
200 40%
100 20%
50 10%
- 0%
2007 2012 2017 2019
• Niche chemicals which are low in volumes – no/limited competition from China
• Products manufactured by very few players globally and also consumed by handful of players –
making the relationship symbiotic
• Products where DMCC has cost advantage globally owing to backward integration or process
innovation
• Incremental profit margins of 30%+ in all new launches and a payback of < 3 years for each product
• Longer term contracts with customers (~ 70% of the contracts are >1 year); getting entry into clients
is a lengthy process
• Quarterly pricing adjustments with customers for raw material (RM) fluctuations (major RM-
Sulphur, Benzene, Ethanol) – the company ensures it earns a fixed profit per ton
STRATEGY IN PLAY- BENZENE SULPHONNYL CHLORIDE
• 4-5 year old product , now the largest contributing product with very high profit margins
• Global market size of ~ 10,000 tonnes- DMCC has ~ 50%+ market share in the world
• DMCC is the lowest cost producer of this product globally – on the back of complete backward
integration into sulphuric acid manufacturing
• While the end market for this product is growing in single digits, DMCC has rapidly taken away share
from others
• DMCC’s dominance is evidenced by the fact that erstwhile #2 player in this market- Proviron, now buys
from DMCC and has stopped producing on its own
• Existing competition includes small players from China; however they are unable to compete with
DMCC on costs
STRATEGY LEADS TO STRONG ENTRY BARRIERS
• Investments in backward integration and R&D may not be attractive given the opportunity size of niche
chemicals which could be as low as few tens of crores
• Lowest cost advantage of DMCC is not easily replicable due to proprietary technology and inability to
backward integrate
• Strong relationships with customers, evidenced by longer term nature of contracts. Customers include
global majors such as BASF, Lanxess among others
0.73
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
-6%
• Outlined a capex of INR 100 Crores over the next 3 years for new products
• One such new product category is sulfones – have spent last 3 years in development and obtaining
approvals from customers. Sales have started to ramp up in FY19. This has 4 products as of now, will
look to introduce more in the future
• Sulfones as a category is a low competition area with only a handful of players in India & globally.
DMCC’s way of manufacturing sulfones is unique which is both environmentally preferred and also
cost effective
• As a product line, management expects this category to contribute ~ 100-150 Crores in the ensuing
3-4 years
• Boron segment - FY19 saw company achieving break even, expect this segment to turn around and
contribute to profits in the next 1-2 years
SOME SIGNS – CO GETTING READY FOR THE NEXT PHASE OF GROWTH
• Company has seen strongest addition to its second level management; hiring from global majors
such as Clariant
• Hired a new CFO from Fine Organics (INR 4,500 Crore Mcap co)
DMCC V/S OTHER SPEC CHEM PLAYERS
3 Year CAGR
1.7 FY 19 Asset Turnover
60% Revenue EBITDA PAT 1.4
1.3
42% 1.0
0.9
29%
23% 25%
18%20% 20% 20%22%19% 21%
16% 16% 17% 53%
47% 41% 48% 46%
DMCC Aarti Industries Atul Ltd. Alkyl Vinati Organics DMCC Aarti Industries Atul Ltd. Alkyl Vinati Organics
Ltd. Amines Ltd. Ltd. Amines Ltd.
FY 19 ROCE FY 19 ROE
FY 19 D/E
29%
0.8 28%
26% 25%
22% 24%
19% 20%
16%
0.4 13%
0.3
0.0 0.0
DMCC Aarti Industries Atul Ltd. Alkyl Vinati Organics DMCC Aarti Industries Atul Ltd. Alkyl Vinati Organics
Ltd. Amines Ltd. Ltd. Amines Ltd.
COMPETENT CEO AND FAIR PROMOTER
• Conversion of preference shares into common equity only after successful turnaround
• Merger of two promoter owned companies to make a big solid speciality chemicals company
• Bimal has been consistent with his strategy for the last 4 + years – conservative and has walked the
talk- have met to him around 10 times during this time period
Figures in Crores
Particulars FY 19 FY 22 CAGR
Sales 234 428 22%
Adjusted EBITDA 44 81 22%
Adjusted PAT 30 53 21%
Company Name Market Cap P/E EV/EBITDA 3 Year Sales CAGR 3 Year EBITDA CAGR ROCE, %
• Execution risk
• Forex volatility
THANK YOU