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FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay August 2019

Uruguay
Outlook stable
Uruguay

• The economy contracted for the first time in nearly four years in the first
quarter, largely due to the poor performance of the retail, manufacturing
and tourism sectors. Private consumption declined again, undermined
by rising unemployment and a weaker currency, while fixed investment
also slumped, cementing the downturn in domestic demand. The external
sector was also held down by weak demand from Argentina and Brazil,
the country’s main trading partners. In other news, while the EU-Mercosur
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 3-year averages trade agreement faces uncertain prospects for ratification, due to
2015-17 2018-20 2021-23 reticence in some EU countries, Uruguay signed new protocols with Brazil
Population (million): 3.5 3.5 3.6 to facilitate investment within the trade bloc. Lastly, on 23 July, Finnish
GDP (USD bn): 55.4 58.2 64.7
GDP per capita (USD): 15,920 16,535 18,187 firm UPM announced a USD 3 billion investment to build a pulp paper
GDP growth (%): 1.5 1.4 2.7 plant in Uruguay by 2022, which would generate an estimated 4,000 jobs.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -3.6 -3.1 -2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP): 64.0 70.6 70.9
Inflation (%): 8.2 7.4 6.4 • Growth is set to stall this year. Downturns in Brazil and Argentina
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.2 -0.8 -0.5
should limit growth in the external sector, while stagnant wages, high
External Debt (% of GDP): 75.4 74.6 73.9
unemployment and a depreciating peso will drag on domestic demand. On
Joffrey Simonet the other hand, the EU-Mercosur trade deal, if ratified, will boost medium-
Economist
term prospects, as should UPM’s paper mill project. FocusEconomics
analysts see growth at 0.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last
month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.

Economic Growth Change in GDP forecasts • Inflation fell from 7.7% in May to 7.4% in June, edging closer to the upper
4.5
2019 2019
1.2
bound of the Central Bank’s 3.0%–7.0% target. The deceleration was led
by cooling price pressures for food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing
3.0 1.0
and footwear, and transport. FocusEconomics analysts forecast inflation
to remain broadly stable this year and see it ending 2019 at 7.6% and
1.5 0.8
2020 at 7.2%.
0.0 0.6

• At its latest monetary policy meeting on 12 July, the Central Bank left its
-1.5 0.4 M1+ target growth rate unchanged at 8.0%–10.0% for the third quarter
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun

GDP, real annual variation in %, Q1 GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020


of 2019, after registering M1 growth of 10.0% in the first half of the year.
2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months. Furthermore, the Bank maintained its inflation target range for the next
24 months at 3.0%–7.0%. FocusEconomics analysts expect the money
supply to increase 8.0% in 2019 and 10.0% in 2020.

Inflation Change in CPI forecasts • The peso strengthened in recent weeks, buttressed by expectations of a Fed
11 7.9 rate cut which boosted investor demand for emerging-market currencies,
Uruguay 2019
Latin America 2020 and improved sentiment following UPM’s investment announcement. On
7.5
9
2 August, the UYU traded at 34.6 per USD, appreciating 1.5% on a month-
on-month basis. FocusEconomics panelists see the peso depreciating
7.1
further moving forward. The panel predicts the UYU to end 2019 at 35.7
7
6.7
per USD and 2020 at 37.6 per USD.

5 6.3
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun

Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual Inflation, evolution of 2019 and 2020
variation in %, Q1 2016 - Q4 2020. forecasts during the last 18 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 131


FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay August 2019

REAL SECTOR | Industrial production slumps in May


Industrial production fell 2.5% over the same month of the previous year in
May, contrasting a mild 0.4% year-on-year increase in April which had marked
Industrial Production | variation in % a short-lived return to output growth. Meanwhile, industrial production,
24
excluding refinery output, fell 0.6% on an annual basis in May, compared to a
healthy 3.9% expansion in April.
12

% Looking at a breakdown of the sub-components, notable contractions in the


0 production of automotive vehicles, medical equipment and basic metals led
the overall slump, more than offsetting solid increase in the production of paper
-12
and paper products as well as metal products, machinery and equipment.
Year-on-year Annual average
Meanwhile, annual average variation in industrial production fell to a 10-month
-24
May-17 Nov-17 May-18 Nov-18 May-19 low of 5.3% in June, from 7.4% in the previous month.
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production
in %. FocusEconomics panelists expect industrial production to increase 1.7% in
Source: National Statistical Institute (INE) and FocusEconomics calculations.
2019, which is up 1.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020,
the panel sees industrial output growth at 3.4%.

Our panellists see GDP to expanding 0.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from
last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.

MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank maintains M1+ target in July


At its 12 July monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Uruguay maintained
its target for the growth rate of the M1+ money supply in Q3 2019 at 8.0%–
10.0%, unchanged from previous quarter’s target. The Bank also confirmed
that M1+ growth for the second quarter stood at 10.0%, which was in line
Money supply | M1+ in % officials’ expectations. Lastly, the Central Bank kept its inflation target for the
25 next 24 months unchanged at 3.0%–7.0%.
Year-on-year
Three-month rolling average
20
The Bank’s decision came against the backdrop of gradually moderating
15 inflationary pressures, a sliding peso and tumbling economic activity. Inflation
remained elevated and continued trading above the Bank’s 3.0%–7.0%
10
target range throughout the second quarter, although price pressures eased
considerably in recent months (June: 7.4%; May: 7.7%). In addition, the peso
5

%
continued losing ground against the greenback—the Uruguayan currency
0 performed worse than most of its emerging markets counterparts in recent
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19
months—which left the Bank with little option but to maintain a moderately
Note: Year-on-year changes and 3-month average variation of M1+ in %. contractive monetary policy stance in July.
Source: Uruguay Central Bank (BCU).

In its communiqué, the Bank hinted at worsening inflation expectations, with


the headline rate now projected to stand at 7.66% by the end of the policy
horizon, up from the previous estimate of 7.25%. Consequently, policy easing
in the near-term remains unlikely as the Bank remains committed to bringing
inflation closer to the target range. Nevertheless, a further deterioration in
the economy following Q1’s contraction—the first since 2015—might push the
bank to rethink its strategy.

The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for October.

FocusEconomics analysts currently see the money supply growing 8.0% in


2019 and 10.0% in 2020.

FocusEconomics analysts expect inflation to close 2019 at 7.6%, which is


unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2020, panelists see inflation
moderating and ending the year at 7.2%.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 132


FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay August 2019

Economic Indicators | 2014 - 2023

Annual Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Real Sector
Population (million) 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6
GDP per capita (USD) 16,829 15,575 14,980 17,206 16,684 16,302 16,620 17,309 18,145 19,106
GDP (USD bn) 58.1 54.0 52.1 60.1 58.5 57.4 58.7 61.3 64.5 68.2
GDP (UYU bn) 1,331 1,456 1,589 1,707 1,831 1,983 2,161 2,356 2,569 2,804
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 12.9 9.4 9.2 7.4 7.3 8.3 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.1
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 3.2 0.4 1.7 2.6 1.6 0.8 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.1
Domestic Demand (ann. var. %) 2.3 -2.0 -0.4 0.7 2.4 0.2 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.2
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.0 -0.5 0.1 4.6 1.5 0.9 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.3
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 2.5 2.2 2.9 -0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 2.4 -9.2 -1.6 -15.7 -2.7 0.1 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.0
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) 3.5 -0.6 -0.2 6.9 -4.8 0.7 2.9 3.3 3.6 3.8
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) 0.8 -7.3 -6.2 0.5 -2.0 -0.7 3.9 4.7 4.8 4.9
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 1.1 3.1 0.3 -11.1 11.5 1.7 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.7
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 6.6 7.5 7.9 7.9 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -3.5 -3.6 -3.8 -3.5 -2.9 -3.3 -3.1 -3.0 -2.7 -2.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 61.4 64.6 61.6 65.7 70.0 71.0 70.9 70.9 70.9 70.8
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 3.7 5.6 8.4 15.0 8.9 8.0 10.0 9.4 9.1 8.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 8.3 9.4 8.1 6.6 8.0 7.6 7.2 6.7 6.2 5.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 8.9 8.7 9.6 6.2 7.6 7.6 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.0
Average Deposit Rate (%, aop) 7.17 6.94 6.58 5.56 5.30 6.30 6.20 6.18 6.17 6.16
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 24.4 29.9 29.3 28.8 32.4 35.7 37.6 39.2 40.5 41.8
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, aop) 23.2 27.3 30.1 28.7 30.7 34.6 36.8 38.4 39.8 41.1
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -3.1 -0.9 0.6 0.8 -0.6 -0.7 -1.0 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -1.8 -0.5 0.3 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2
Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) 2.0 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.2
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 13.8 11.1 10.4 10.8 11.5 11.5 12.0 12.9 13.9 15.3
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 11.8 9.8 8.5 8.7 9.1 9.5 10.5 11.4 12.3 13.1
Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) 3.7 -19.1 -6.9 4.1 6.3 0.0 4.7 6.9 8.4 10.0
Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) -3.4 -16.5 -14.0 2.4 5.2 3.9 10.3 9.4 7.9 6.4
Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) 2.3 0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 - - - - -
International Reserves (USD bn) 17.8 15.6 13.4 16.0 15.6 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.3
International Reserves (months of imports) 18.1 19.0 19.0 22.2 20.5 20.7 19.4 18.4 17.9 17.6
External Debt (USD bn) 41.2 43.8 40.0 41.2 42.0 43.3 44.9 45.4 47.8 50.2
External Debt (% of GDP) 70.9 81.0 76.7 68.5 71.8 75.5 76.5 74.0 74.1 73.7
Quarterly Data Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20 Q4 20
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.8 0.6 -0.2 0.5 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.8
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) 8.3 8.0 7.8 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.0
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 33.3 32.4 33.8 35.3 35.2 35.7 36.3 36.9 37.5 37.6
Monthly Data Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 19.5 1.7 -8.8 1.3 -2.5 -5.5 0.4 -2.5 - -
Unemployment (% of active population) 8.6 7.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 9.5 8.0 8.7 - -
Money (ann. var. of M1+ %) 4.7 4.5 8.9 11.6 9.3 8.9 13.8 8.5 9.3 -
Inflation (CPI, mom var. %) 0.2 0.4 -0.4 2.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %) 8.0 8.1 8.0 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.2 7.7 7.4 -
Exchange Rate (UYU per USD, eop) 32.8 32.1 32.4 32.6 32.6 33.8 34.7 35.3 35.3 34.3

Note: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts are highlighted in grey.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 133


FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay August 2019

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product and Fiscal Balance

1 | Real GDP | 2000-2023 | var. in % 2 | Real GDP | Q1 16-Q4 20 | var. in % Economic Growth and Fiscal Balance

8 6 Real GDP Fiscal Balance


var. in % % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020
4 4 Barclays Capital 0.5 2.1 -4.0 -3.1
BBVA Banco Francés 0.6 1.5 -3.8 -3.6
Capital Economics 0.0 -0.5 - -
0 2 CINVE 0.8 1.9 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 0.8 2.0 -2.7 -2.6
DuckerFrontier 0.9 2.4 - -
-4
Uruguay
0 EIU 1.5 2.4 - -
Uruguay
Latin America Equipos Consultores 0.7 1.5 - -
Latin America
World
World Euromonitor Int. 1.2 1.2 - -
-8
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -2 Fitch Solutions 0.8 1.8 -3.4 -3.2
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20
HSBC 1.0 2.0 -2.6 -2.4
Iecon - UdelaR 0.5 2.0 -3.5 -3.5
Itaú BBA 0.5 1.5 -3.2 -3.0
3 | GDP 2019 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2020 | evolution of forecasts JPMorgan 0.7 1.6 -3.2 -3.3
4.5 4.5
Julius Baer 1.0 2.5 - -
Moody's Analytics 1.4 2.1 - -
Oikos 0.5 1.8 -3.6 -3.1
Oxford Economics 0.8 1.7 -3.4 -3.2
3.0 3.0
Puente S.A. 0.8 2.0 -3.2 -3.0
República AFAP 0.4 2.5 - -
S&P Global 0.9 1.9 - -
1.5 1.5
Santander 0.5 1.5 - -
Summary
Minimum 0.0 -0.5 -4.0 -3.6
0.0 0.0 Maximum
Maximum Maximum 1.5 2.5 -2.6 -2.4
Consensus Consensus
Median 0.8 1.9 -3.4 -3.1
Minimum Minimum
Consensus 0.8 1.8 -3.3 -3.1
-1.5 -1.5
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun History
30 days ago 0.8 1.8 -3.3 -3.1
60 days ago 1.2 2.0 -3.2 -3.1
5 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 6 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 90 days ago 1.2 2.1 -3.4 -3.3
Additional Forecasts
18 0
World Bank (June 2019) 1.5 2.3 - -
Uruguay
CEPAL (July 2019) 0.3 - - -
Latin America
IMF (Apr. 2019) 1.9 3.0 - -
15
-2

12

-4
9
Uruguay
Latin America
6 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Notes and sources


7 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 8 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst

8.5 -2.5 General:


Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The
2019 2020 2019 2020 Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All real sector
data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de
Estadística) and the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de Uruguay). See
8.0 -3.0 below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast.

1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BCU.


2 Quarterly GDP (non-seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: BCU.
7.5 -3.5 3 GDP, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
4 GDP, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE.
6 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCU.
7 Unemployment, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18
7.0 -4.0 months.
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 8 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP, evolution of 2019
and 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 134


FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay August 2019

Monetary and External Sector | Inflation and Exchange Rate

9 | Inflation | 2000-2023 | in % 10 | Inflation | Q1 16-Q4 20 | in % Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate

28 11 CPI Exchange Rate


Uruguay variation in % UYU per USD
Uruguay
Latin America Latin America Individual Forecasts 2019 2020 2019 2020
21 Barclays Capital 7.8 7.6 35.0 36.8
9 BBVA Banco Francés 8.0 6.8 36.2 39.5
Capital Economics - - - -
14 CINVE 8.5 8.0 - -
Citigroup Global Mkts 7.7 7.0 35.5 37.0
7 DuckerFrontier - - - -
7 EIU 7.5 6.6 34.9 36.4
Equipos Consultores 7.4 7.9 35.1 37.2
Euromonitor Int. - - - -
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 5 Fitch Solutions 7.4 7.4 36.1 36.7
Q1 16 Q1 17 Q1 18 Q1 19 Q1 20 HSBC 7.5 7.3 - -
Iecon - UdelaR 7.5 7.0 36.1 37.2
Itaú BBA 7.5 7.0 36.5 40.0
11 | Inflation 2019 | evolution of fcst 12 | Inflation 2020 | evolution of fcst JPMorgan 8.0 7.0 36.0 -
9 9
Julius Baer - - - -
Maximum Moody's Analytics 6.6 6.8 35.5 36.6
Consensus Oikos 7.3 6.7 35.4 38.4
Minimum
8 8
Oxford Economics 7.3 7.0 35.0 37.9
Puente S.A. 7.9 7.3 37.0 39.5
República AFAP 7.7 7.8 - -
S&P Global - - - -
7 7
Santander 7.4 7.4 34.8 36.2
Summary
Minimum 6.6 6.6 34.8 36.2
6 Maximum 6
Maximum 8.5 8.0 37.0 40.0
Consensus
Minimum Median 7.5 7.0 35.5 37.2
Consensus 7.6 7.2 35.7 37.6
5 5
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun History
30 days ago 7.6 7.2 35.8 38.1
60 days ago 7.6 7.1 35.5 37.6
13 | Exchange Rate | UYU per USD 14 | Current Account | % of GDP 90 days ago 7.5 7.1 35.2 37.0
Additional Forecasts
50 3
IMF (Apr. 2019) 7.5 7.0 - -
Uruguay
Latin America
40
0

30

-3
20

10 -6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Notes and sources

General:
15 | UYU per USD | evol. of fcst 16 | Current Account | evol. of fcst Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2023 unless otherwise stated. The
Latin America regional aggregate excludes Venezuela. All monetary and
39 2 external sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto
Nacional de Estadística), the Central Bank (BCU, Banco Central de
2019 2020 2019 2020 Uruguay), IMF (International Financial Statistics) and Thomson Reuters.
See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus
37 1 Forecast.

9 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).


Source: INE.
35 0 10 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %
(eop). Source: INE.
11 Inflation, evolution of 2019 forecasts during the last 18 months.
12 Inflation, evolution of 2020 forecasts during the last 18 months.
33 -1
13 Exchange rate, UYU per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters.
14 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: IMF.
15 Exchange rate, evolution of 2019 and 2020 forecasts during the last 18
31 -2 months.
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun 16 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 2019 and 2020
forecasts during the last 18 months.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 135


FOCUSECONOMICS Uruguay August 2019

Fact Sheet

General Data Uruguay in the Region


Official name: Oriental Republic Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Uruguay
Capital: Montevideo (1.7 m) Uruguay
Uruguay
0.6%
1.1%
Other cities: Canelones (0.4 m)
Maldonado (0.1 m)
Area (km2): 176,215 Other
Other
22.7%
Population (million, 2018 est.): 3.5 27.6%
Brazil
Population density (per km2, 2018): 19.9 35.0% Brazil
35.9%
Population growth rate (%, 2018 est.): 0.3
Colombia
Life expectancy (years, 2018 est.): 77.6 6.4%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2017): 1.4 Argentina
7.5%
Language: Spanish Argentina
10.4%
Colombia
Measures: Metric system 8.4%
Mexico
Mexico
Time: GMT-3 21.0%
23.5%

Economic Infrastructure
Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2017)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 32.9 GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 147 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17 2009-11 2012-14 2015-17
100 120
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 66.4
Broadband Subscriptions (per 100 inhabitants): 27.6 Agriculture 100 Net Exports
80

Energy (2016) 80

Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 119 60


Manufacturing Investment

Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 226 60

Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 13.1


40 Government
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 10.8 40 Other Industry
Consumption

Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2.0 20


Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 53.0 20 Private
Services
CO2 Emissions (million metric tons): 7.6 0 Consumption

0 -20
Transportation (2015)
Airports: 133
Railways (km): 1,673
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 77,732
Waterways (km): 1,600 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Montevideo

Other U.S.A.
Turkey ​ 6.2% 7.0% ​ ​
Political Data 7.0% U.S.A.
Angola
​​
​ ​ ​
6.5% ​ ​ 10.9% EU-27
President: Tabaré Vázquez Other
32.0%
​ ​
EU-27 ​ ​
​​
12.5%
​ ​
​ ​
Last elections: 30 November 2014 9.5%


Other ​
​ ​ Asia
ex-Japan
Next elections: 27 October 2019 Exports
​​ Argentina
12.6% Imports
5.5%

Central Bank Govenor: Alberto Graña


China
​​​ China
​​ 16.0%
16.9%
Brazil ​​ Brazil
14.3% Other ​​ 20.6% ​​
Other ​ ​
LatAm LatAm
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings 14.6% 7.8%

Agency Rating Outlook


Moody’s: Baa2 Stable
Primary products | share in %
S&P Global Ratings: BBB Stable
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Negative Other
1.2%

Mineral ​
Fuels ​ Other
Strengths Weaknesses Manufact. ​ 11.6% 15.9%
Products ​
22.5%
• Stable political environment • Highly dollarized economy
• Strong public institutions • Dependence on neighboring ​

• Abundant natural resources economies Exports ​


Imports
Agric.
• Small domestic market Food Raw Mat.
62.9% 13.3%

Manufact.
Products
. 72.5%

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 136


FOCUSECONOMICS

Notes and Statements


Notes August 2019

PUBLICATION NOTE COPYRIGHT NOTE


Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of © Copyright 2019 FocusEconomics S.L.U. Duplication,
economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any
monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise
the annual figures due to different forecast panels. without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly
prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to under International Copyright Conventions.
economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and
include the following countries: The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication
of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or
Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows:
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador,
El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, FocusEconomics S.L.U.
Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Gran Via 657
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Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, e-mail: info@focus-economics.com
Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and web: http://www.focus-economics.com
Tobago.
Mercosur (5 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and
Uruguay.

Venezuela is included in the LatinFocus report but not in regional


or world aggregates.

Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the


latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast (“Forecast”) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics
and the participating panelists (“Information Providers”) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate,
complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The
Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this
information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of
their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment
objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any
transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the
Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 137


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ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 131 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France, Germany & Italy),
Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countries
EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain
NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania,
Slovakia and Slovenia
CIS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Ukraine and Uzbekistan
SOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia,
Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Turkey
EAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New
Zealand
ASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam,
Australia and New Zealand
LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela
CENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras,
Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique,
Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate,
Fiscal Balance and Public Debt
MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt

PRICE FORECASTS FOR 34 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS


ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Gasoil (European market), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas,
Thermal Coal and Uranium
BASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybedenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S.
markets), Tin and Zinc
PRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and Platinum
AGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Palm oil, Soybeans, Sugar, Rice, Wheat and Wool

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