Climate change impacts in a representative aquatic ecosystem: Utilizing long term ecological

and meteorological data

Carpio, R.B., Go, J.T., Lumactud, J.S., Manalo, V.S. a

Department of Biological Sciences, College of Science, University of Santo Tomas , Espana

Manila, Philippines

Abstract

The greenhouse effect has been closely linked to climate change. Over the years, instead of natural causes, the
gradual change in weather conditions has been closely linked to human activities. The best way to study the
impact of climate change is to analyze ecological and meteorological data. This experiment used Microsoft
Excel to analyze the relationship between the temperature of the Philippine air and the temperature of the
surface water in Lake Taal. The results showed that the temperature of the surface water has a slightly strong
correlation with the Philippines ' air temperature. The low correlation can be caused by outliers and limited data.

Introduction

Climate change is a change in the climate system's statistical properties that lasts for decades

or more-mostly not less than 30 years. This change can be caused by natural processes, such as

changes in the radiation of the Sun, volcanoes or fluctuations in the climate system, or because of

human impacts, for example, changes in the atmosphere or land use. Global warming is a climate

change occurrence defined by a steady increase in the Earth's average temperature, that alters the

weather balance and ecosystems for a long period of time. It is directly related to the increase in

greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere which results to worsening of the greenhouse effect. In

reality, compared to the end of the 19th century, the planet's average temperature increased by 0.8o

Celsius (33.4 ° Fahrenheit). Since the beginning of statistical surveys in 1850, each of the last three

decades has been warmer than all previous decades. Scientists expect an increase in average

temperature between 1.5 ° and 5.3 ° C (34.7 ° to 41.5 ° F) at the rate of current CO2 emissions.

The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon. The overall increase in greenhouse gasses is,

however, connected to human activities. Currently, human activities drastically increase atmospheric

concentrations of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide, as well as other chemically produced greenhouse

gasses such as halocarbons. These human - produced gasses improve the natural greenhouse effect

and heat the surface even further.In addition to the direct impact, other processes can amplify the

temperature increase possibly resulting from increased concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases.
A prime example is the amplification of water vapor. Human activities further increase atmospheric

aerosols that reflect some incoming sun radiation. This change induced by humans increases some

greenhouse gas rise in temperature. Scientists believe that human activities have been the primary

cause of global warming of since the mid-20th century, mainly due to the massive use of carbon fuels,

deforestation, waste disposal methods such as landfills and incineration, mining and overexploitation

of natural resources.

Global warming has a lot of consequences. The rise in temperatures and climatic upheavals

endanger ecosystems, alter plant reproduction conditions and cycles. Resource scarcity and climate

change are changing the way animals live and migrate. We are already seeing far too many species

disappear. Permafrost and ice melt massively at the the poles due to global warming, which results to

a rise in the sea level at a rate never before known. The increase is by 18 cm in a century (including 6

cm over the last 20 years). By far the worst case scenario is an spike by 2100 of up to 1 meter. The

global economy is also affected by climate change. In many parts of the world, it is already disturbing

social health and geopolitical flows. The lack of resources such as energy and food introduces new

conflicts. Elevated sea levels and floods eventually lead to mass migration of the population.

Substantial research has shown that lakes are sensitive to environmental changes, including

the the the responses to climate. In the future, the ecological responses of lakes to climate change will

be more evident, with continued global warming, greatly increased evapotranspiration, altered rain

and drought patterns and impeded or amplified climate teleconnections. The effects of climate change

on lakes is indeed important because lakes play a vital role in the landscape, supplying nesting habitat

for birds and feeding habitat and water sources for many land animals, and they play a major role as

sources and sinks of carbon,nitrogen, as well as oxygen. Lakes are an important source of drinking

water, irrigation water, recreation and fishing resources for the human population and could have a

significant cultural and economic significance.with this knowledge, it is remarkable that funds are

channeled away from the careful assessment of changes in lakes in response to climate change in

many countries. Further knowledge of climate change in the Philippines, is achieved by comparing

Lake Taal's surface water temperature averages and air temperatures from 2000 to 2011.
 T-Test is a parametric statistical tool that is used as a comparison for two different

measurements which is applied on the same subject (temperature). This is to determine whether it will

follow a normal distribution in comparison to a hypothesis. As a general rule with the significance

level at 0.05 or the confidence level of 95%, the null hypothesis can be rejected if the T-Stat is less

than or equal to the negative T Critical value or when the T Stat is greater than or equal the positive T-

Critical value. In the experiment the significance of the temperature, rainfall, and typhoon amount and

intensities to each other are to be determined. The null hypothesis is that there is no significant

difference between the mean annual and mean monthly temperatures of Lake Taal from 2000-2011.

Materials and Methods

Microsoft Excel program and local data of surface water temperatures of Taal Lake and air

temperature of Taal Lake and the Philippines were utilized in this experiment. From the span of the

years 2000-2011, average monthly air temperature data were taken from the database of PAGASA

Ambulong Weather Station as well as from local databasases. The data was used to conjure the graphs

for water surface temperature change, air temperature and rainfall in Taal Lake from 2000-2011. A

parametric statistical analysis is conducted using t-test statistics and Microsoft Excel. It was

calculated by finding the difference between the two variables and calculating the mean. This was

then used to calculate the standard error of mean difference. The T statistic is then computed where

the mean difference is divided with the standard error of the mean difference. From this data we

gathered using the statistical method, a graph was made to show the relationship between the average

air temperature with the average surface water temperature in Lake Taal. Another graph was made to

show the relationship between the average surface water temperature in Lake Taal with the average

monthly temperature readings for the Philippines.

Results and Discussion

400
Yearly Ave. of Surface Water Temperature in
300
Taal (°C) from 2000-2011
200
100
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 1. Yearly average of surface water temperature in Taal Lake from 2000-2011

Based on figure 1, the data shows that the highest temperature from Lake Taal from the year

2000 to 2011 is exhibited on the year 2009 while the lowest temperature is at the year 2007.

Monthly Ave. Water Surface Temperature

from 2000-2011
31
30
29
28
27
26
25

AVE MONTH

Figure 2. Monthly Ave. Water Surface Temperature from 2000-2011

Using a line graph, the yearly and monthly average of water surface temperature in Taal Lake

from 2000-2011 was visualized. In the graph, it can be observed that yearly average temperatures are

erratic, cycling from higher to lower temperatures throughout the years observed. It may be important

to note that starting the year 2008, the average yearly temperature is seen to climb until year 2011.The

mean of each month for the years 2000-2011 were taken and graphed. It is seen that the highest
monthly surface water temperature was during the month of May having the temperature of 30.25℃,

and the lowest monthly surface water temperature was during the month of January with the

temperature 26.76℃. Generally, rise in average monthly surface water temperature is observed

starting from February to the highest in May then the months following December to have a cooler

water surface temperature. It can also be inferred from the data set that during the month of May,

temperatures are higher as compared to other months.

Figure 3. Yearly air temperature in Taal Lake from 2000-2011

Data observed from figure 3 shows that on the year 2000, the highest amount of rainfall is

observed while at the year 2010, the least amount of rainfall is shown. The trend would show that

from the year 2000 to 2008, there is an observed decrease in rainfall however, changes occurred from

the year 2009 with a significant increase then dropped to the lowest observed rainfall the succeeding

year.
 AVE MONTHLY
30
29
28
27
26
25
24

Figure 4. Average monthly air temperature in Taal Lake from 2000-2011

Figure 4 shows the average monthly air temperature in Lake Taal from 2000-2011 and from

the data it can be observed that the highest monthly air temperature is during April at above 29

degrees Celsius and the lowest being January. The monthly average is taken in consideration of the

monthly data in relation to the year 2000-2011. Considering the seasons that are manifested in the

country, the lowest temperatures are seen on December and January, this is because this is when the

country is further from the sun which makes it comparable colder than the highest temperature in

months which is the month of April. April is the peak of the summer season and the trend shows a

decrease in temperature as it approaches December.

Table 1. T -test of mean annual and mean monthly temperatures in Taal Lake (2000-2011)
t-Test: Paired Two Sample for Means

Variable 1 Variable 2

Mean 28.60 28.59

Variance 1.41 1.43

Observation 12 12

Pearson Correlation 0.98

Hypothesized Mean Difference 0

Df 11

T Stat 1.74
 P (T <=t) one-tail 0.05

T Critical one tail 1.80

P (T<=t) two tail 0.11

T Critical Two Tail 2.20

The statistical tool t-test was used to determine the mean difference between the two

observations which is the monthly and yearly averages of temperature in Taal Lake from the year

2000-2011. According to Table 1, the T-Stat is 1.74 and the T-Critical Value for two-tail is 2.20.

Since the T-Stat is not greater than the T-Critical Value of 2.20, the null hypothesis cannot be

rejected.

R2= 0. 8206

Figure 5. Linear Regression of Monthly Average Air Temperature V.S. Surface Water in Lake

Taal (2000-2011)

The Philippine air temperature is directly proportional to the surface water temperature in

Lake Taal. Air temperature is the independent variable while surface water is the dependent

variable. As shown in Fig 4,the monthly average air temperature and surface water in Lake Taal

were subjected to linear regression. The coefficient of determination (R2 ) is equal to 0.6033,

showing some correlation.

Figure 6.Linear Regression of Monthly Average Philippine Air Temperature V.S. Surface Water
in Lake Taal (2000-2011)

Figure 5. Number of Typhoons Every 2 years

Figure 6. Typhoon Intensity (windspeed) in Taal

 Several factors affect the amount of precipitation in an area one of which is temperature.

According to Berg, Moseley, & Haerter (2013), higher temperatures affect the amount of precipitation

and causes more cloud formation. The intensity of a storm is also dependent on temperature as it

intensifies quickly at elevated temperatures.

Conclusion

Climate change is more evident as the Earth warms. Net solar radiation directly affects the

surface temperature. There is a slightly strong correlation of air temperature in the Philippines and

surface temperature of Lake Taal showed a slightly strong correlation. Therefore, as air temperature

increases, the surface water temperature also increases.

Guide Questions

1. Using the results, you have generated above, are the temperature changes in Lake Taal

responding strongly to changes in the local air temperature? What about the regional air

temperature? How can you interpret the statistical results you have obtained from the

analysis?

The temperature of the surface water is proportional to the local temperature. The researchers

found that the surface water temperature in Lake Taal and the air temperature in the

Philippines do have a significantly high correlation. As the air temperature rises, the

temperature of the surface water also significantly increases.

2. How do lakes respond to changes in climate? Cite examples based on studies that have been

conducted on other lake ecosystems.

Lakes around the world are rapidly warming, as recently documented in a survey of 235

lakes, which showed an increase in the average surface temperature between 1985 and 2009

by 0.34 ° C per decade. Less is known about the warming that occurred under the lake surface
 in water deeper, where a greater percentage of organisms occur. In a global assessment of

lakes, the strength of thermal stratification significantly increased in most lakes. Surface

waters heated 1.7 times higher on average than the correlating air temperatures in the lakes.

3. What are the negative impacts of increasing temperatures to aquatic organisms? Cite three

examples which show aquatic flora or fauna that are negatively affected by increasing

temperatures.

The impact of climate change on inland aquatic ecosystems ranges from the direct effects of

the increase in temperature and CO2 concentrations to the indirect effects of changes in

hydrology resulting from changes in regional or global precipitation systems and the melting

of glaciers and ice cover. Significant changes in the composition, seasonality and production

of planktonic communities and their interactions with the food web will likely occur with

consequent changes in water quality. Boreal peatlands will be most affected by winter

precipitation and will increase as the composition of plant and animal communities changes

significantly.

4. Are there any noticeable trends in terms of rainfall in the vicinity and the immediate area of

Lake Taal?

There is no observable patterns in the rainfall vicinity and immediate are of Lake Taal.

5. 5. How do human activities contribute to climate change and how do they compare with

natural influences?

Environmental change is exceedingly connected with nursery impact. Around, 90% percent of

the warmth originating from the sun is consumed by ozone harming substances. In any case,

human exercises are supplanting the common ozone depleting substances, as the use of

machines since the Industrial Revolution expands the CO2 focus in the Earth's air. What's

more, the engineered Chlorofluorocarbons can possibly crush the ozone layer. Since there is
 an expansion in ozone depleting substances, the warmth is less inclined to be transmitted

back, coming about to hotter temperature. In addition, an ongoing consider asserted that the

66% of the environmental and maritime temperature is ascribed to human exercises instead of

regular variables.

6. 6. What is the role of methane in influencing increases in global temperatures? What are the

various sources of methane in the planet? Do you know of any natural means of controlling

the amount of methane? Methane is naturally present as one of the greenhouse gases. It is also

produced by chemoautotroph bacteria found in wetland, which produces more methane at

higher temperature. Moreover, methane is an efficient heat-trapping gas and hence, it

contributes to the increasing global temperatures. It is an endless cycle since high temperature

brought by the global warming would induce the chemoautotroph bacteria to produce more

methane. Though methane only lasts for a decade, its concentration can be reduced if the

emissions brought by human activities such as cattle-rearing, natural gas exploration and coal

mining are reduced as well.

7. The Philippines is listed as one of the countries in the world most vulnerable to climate

change. Give at least five instances wherein one can see the impacts brought about by climate

change in the country.

1. The Super Typhoon Yolanda, the strongest storm recorded in the history, has taken 6,300

lives, displaced four million citizens and destroyed properties worth 2 billion US dollars last

November 13, 2013. 2. The Philippines, specifically the rice farmers in Western Visayas,

suffered greatly from El Nino for eight months, from October 2015 - May 2016. Due to the

drought, the crops in 80,000 hectares were damaged and in return affected the economy by a

loss of 2 billion pesos. 3. According to PAGASA, rise in the sea level endangers the quality

of drinking water and agriculture productivity. The Philippine Human Development Report

emphasized that one out of five Filipino consumes from the water that has been reduced in
 terms of quality due to high sea level, risking the health of the citizens. 4. The Philippines has

a 27,000 square kilometers of coral reef. About 10% - 15% of the total fisheries is obtained

from to coral reef. High temperatures are lethal to coral reefs as seen in coral bleaching. 5.

Due to the Monsoon rainfall, there has been intense water fluctuation in the Philippines.

Stagnant water is the breeding place of mosquitos, the vectors of Dengue. On the other hand,

intense flooding poses high probability of acquiring leptospirosis.

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Berg P., Moseley C., and Haerter J.O. (2013) Nature Geosci., doi:10.1038/ngeo1731

Scatter plots are sometimes called correlation plots because they show

how two variables are correlated.

Correlation coefficient

is when, at the time of study of two variables, it is observed that a unit

change in one variable is retaliated by an equivalent change in another

variable, direct or indirect. In the result, 0.99 or 99% was obtained thus,

surface water temperature and air temperature have a direct relationship

R squared

Result shows that 0.60 or 60% movement of the dependent variable

which is the air temp is due to the surface water temperature the independent

variable
p- value/ probability

the probability or the p-value is < 0.05 thus, statistically significant.