Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Australia Rules Out Basing U.S.
Intermediate Missiles
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 5, 2019

We request your analysis regarding recent news reports that Australia's Defence
Minister Linda Reynolds ruled out the possibility that Australi country would provide
a base for U.S. mid-range missiles
ANSWER: Both the Australian Minister of Defence and the Prime Minister have ruled
out the deployment of U.S. intermediate range missiles in Australia. At a press
conference on 4 August, after the annual AUSMIN (Australia-United States Ministerial
meeting of ministers of foreign affairs and defence), the Australian Defence Minister
avoided a direct response to a question about the deployment of missiles in Australia
citing Australia’s engagement with China.
According to the official transcript an unidentified journalist asked: “My question is
directed in the first instance to the visiting secretaries and it draws on Secretary
Esper's thoughts about intermediate missiles expressed on your way here to Sydney.
Assuming you would need the support in the Asian region of allies to expand such a
network, and as range improves can you rule out locating any of these missiles in your
ever-expanding establishments in Australia's North? And, to our own Ministers, do
you see any risks associated with the inevitable perception that this may be a hostile
course of action, provocative even, directed towards China? Do you see risks of
destabilisation and instability in the region because of it?”
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo replied in general terms and did not mention
Australia. According to the transcript Pompeo said, “To your point about how we will
proceed with respect to this class of weapons systems and all, it is of course the case
that when we employ these systems around the world with our friends and allies we
do so with their consent, we do so with respect to their sovereignty.”
Secretary of Defense Mark Esper also did not mention Australia in his reply. According
to the transcript Esper said:
We now are free, if you will, to develop that range of weapons, 500 kilometres to
5500 hundred kilometres, that have not been available to us from a ground-based
deterrent posture. And again, we're talking about conventional weapons now, not
nuclear. So I think to the degree that allowing us to design and develop, test and
eventually deploy systems, whether it's in Europe; whether it's in the Asia Pacific
or elsewhere; gives us and continues that deterrent posture we want to deter
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conflict in any region in which we deploy, in consultation with our allies and
partners.
Australia’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Marise Payne pointedly gave this explanation
without directly addressing the question of missiles:
But with regards to our regional engagement, let me also ensure and remind that,
for China and for Australia, we see China as a vitally important partner for Australia.
We are strongly committed to our comprehensive strategic partnership which
continues to grow. And in these meetings today, we've of course discussed our
respective engagement with China. And, self-evidently, we each have areas of
difference with China. As I mentioned and have mentioned in the past to
counterparts, I can't think of a single bilateral relationship in the word that is perfect
- in which there is no point of difference on which countries might engage. It's how
you deal with the differences that of course is very important. We both want
productive relationships. It's in no one's interests for the Indo-Pacific to become
more competitive or to become adversarial in character.
Minister for Defense Linda Reynolds did not speak to this issue at the press
conference.
A day after the AUSMIN meeting and press conference the Australian Prime Minister
dodged the question of basing U.S. missiles in Australia by stating no request had been
made. Prime Minister Morison was asked the following while visiting the town of
Wacol in Queensland:
Journalist: Has the US ever asked to install missiles in Northern Australia?
PRIME MINISTER: No.
Journalist: Would you consider it if they did ask that?
Prime Minister: That's not something the Government would consider. It's not
being asked of us, it's not being considered. It's not being put to us. So, you know,
I think I can rule a line under that.
Also, on 5 August, Defence Minister Linda Reynolds told ABC Radio National with
respect to basing U.S. missiles in Australia, "You would expect the US secretary of
defence to canvass all of these issues in light of what's happening in the Indo-Pacific…
But I can confirm that he made no request and he wasn't anticipating any request."
The bottom line is that the nature of the alliance between the United States and
Australia is such that no formal request for assistance in made unless the answer is
known in advance. In this case, Secretaries Pompeo and Esper made general
comments about possibly of basing missiles in Asia with the concurrence of allies but
did not specifically mention Australia prior to their arrival in Sydney for the AUSMIN
talks. Both Secretaries also dodged the question about the placement of U.S. missiles
in Australia at the press conference held immediately after AUSMIN.
Australia’s national interests may converge with U.S. national interests but they are
not congruent. This is the case about basing intermediate range ground missiles in
Australia.
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POSTSCRIPT: Veteran journalist Paul Kelly wrote in The Australian on 7th August, "It was only
at Sunday (4 August) night dinner at Aria restaurant that Defence Minister Linda Reynolds
asked Esper directly was the US asking Australia to host the missiles and did it have plans to
ask? The answer, evidently, was no. Reynolds and the Prime Minister drop-kicked the idea the
next morning in interviews. The relief was palpable."
Now we have to wait and see if President Trump makes a request when he meets Prime
Minister Morrison over an official dinner at The White House later this month.

Media Identification: The University of New South Wales, Canberra or The University
of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Australia Rules Out Basing U.S. Intermediate
Missiles,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 5, 2019. All background briefs
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
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