Indo US Nuclear deal we gain or loose ?

Published by Brigadier Arun Bajpai (Retd) [brigarunbajpai] on 2008/3/31 (392 rea

ds)
India is a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology who should have sam
e advantages as other nuclear states . These memorable words uttered by American P
resident Bush on 18 July 05 during a joint press conference hosted on the occasi
on of visit of the Indian Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh to US, have in one stro
ke achieved for India the status of Sixth Nuclear power in the world, a recognit
ion which India s first peaceful nuclear test conducted in May 1974 and then again
five tests in 1998 could not deliver. In international relations nothing comes
free. The question which now comes to fore is, what price have we to pay to achi
eve this Nuclear power status, even though a de facto one.

India came under American nuclear non proliferation scanner immediately after it
conducted its first peaceful nuclear test in 1974.For last four decades Indian
nuclear programme has functioned under American applied nuclear and missile tech
nology transfer ban. Biggest problem the fast growing Indian economy faces today
is the rising energy demand. So far India has been meeting its skyrocketing ene
rgy requirements by importing oil from gulf countries. However oil prices in wor
ld market are now touching the all time high of 102 dollars a barrel and this so
urce of energy has become a very expensive proposition. Abundant coal availabili
ty in India is not a viable proposition due to environmental hazards. With Globa
l warming and melting of Glaciers the Hydroelectric production In India has also
more or less peaked. Only other cheap energy option left to sustain the current
growth rate of Indian economy is the nuclear energy.

Currently Indian civilian nuclear energy programme produces 2400 MW of energy. L

imited nuclear fuel availability in India can at best enhance the indigenous nuc
lear energy production to a maximum of 10000 MW.To compliment other resources Th
e minimum Indian nuclear energy requirement is estimated to be 40000 MW. Only wa
y India can meet this demand is by importing the nuclear fuel from US and other
nuclear capable countries in a big way. Additionally Indian nuclear energy plant
s are getting old and fingers are being raised at their safety. These Indian ene
rgy woes are known to America.

By granting the de facto Sixth nuclear power status to India, US has very clever
ly put an end to India s ambition of becoming a military super power one day. Indi
a now per force will have to abide by all those conditions that are binding on t
he current nuclear capable states. The first among them is the US demand that In
dia must separate its military and civilian nuclear installations and put its ci
vilian nuclear installations under IAEA safeguards to be eligible for latest nuc
lear technology and fuel transfers to India. US very glibly says that it has no
objection to what India does with its military related nuclear installations.

Unlike US, Russia and even China, whose nuclear doctrines are based on the stock
piling concept, that is to say their military nuclear installations continuously
keep on producing nuclear warheads, either to up grade the current ones, replac
e the old ones or add on to the current holdings, India follows the philosophy o
f Minimum Nuclear Deterrent (MND). In MND the nuclear warheads are produced, bas
ed on assessment of current nuclear threats. In the case of India the perceived
threats from China and Pakistan. That is why in India the nuclear installations
follow an integrated approach incorporating both civil and military requirements
under one roof.

Once India separates its 21 nuclear reactors into military and civil watertight
compartments then its military warheads producing capability will automatically
go down. Same will be the case with its military oriented nuclear research capab
ility. Besides civilian and military oriented research will not be able to compl
ement each other. So now if India wants to retain its current military oriented
nuclear capability then it will have to spend enormous amount of money to recrea
te new military facilities. Needless to say this measure will not be cost effect
ive.

In other words India s Nuclear deterrent will not only remain minimum but will als
o be much behind times. Add to this the second international obligation of morat
orium on nuclear related tests and the third demand of US of multilateral Fissil
e Material Cut Off Treaty, and the picture is complete. After this Indo US deal,
Indian nuclear threat will remain small and regional for a long time to come not
materially affecting the Super power like US.

On the gains side India gets the latest technology in civilian nuclear energy ge
neration as also the fuel for the same. This will take care of India s energy requ
irements that are currently paramount for the country at this stage of developme
nt and for an economic Super power future, which India can still become.

On the military side, as against number of warheads and their level of sophistic
ation, India should now concentrate on the modernization of delivery means, thei
r longer range and accuracy. Both China and Pakistan should be rest assured that
Indian nuclear capable missiles would hit them with pinpoint accuracy along the
ir entire length and breadth. This capability itself will be a great nuclear det
errent because no country in its sane mind can afford the risk of even one nucle
ar bomb being dropped within its territory.

In addition India should develop foolproof second-strike capability. Case in poi

nt being the nuclear submarines and nuclear capable missiles that can be fired u
nder water from them. These nuclear submarines with nuclear tipped missiles crui
sing underwater near the target country are most deadly weapons to dissuade bold
est of bold countries to desist from taking nuclear war course. These measures i
f taken by India will to a large extent offset the loss of nuclear military capa
bility that will result due to bifurcation of civil and military nuclear install
ations.

Apart from energy needs we will be very big gainer in the field of defence produ
ction and modernization of Indian Armed Forces. Be it Indian Fighter Aircraft pr
oject Tejas, Arjun Tanks, short range missiles, nuclear powered submarines, long
range artillery guns, all these indigenous arms production programmes of ours a
re running 10 to 12 years behind schedule due to high technology transfer restri
ctions imposed on us by US and other developed countries after our Pokhran nucle
ar test of 1974. If the Indo US deal is through, then these restrictions will be
lifted. Instead of biggest arms importer country in the world we may then grab a
big share of world arms production and export market, in addition to equipping
our Armed forces with latest weapons produced at home only with reasonable costs
. In civilian advanced technology areas like Indian Space And Research Organizat
ion, Aircraft and ship building fields also we will benefit.

In the final analysis despite certain disadvantages this deal is beneficial to I

ndia and the current UPA Government should go for it even if the Left withdraws
support, as they have been threatening for the last six months. The said deal ha
s already cleared all the international hurdles and now only has to go through t
he approval of 45 Nation Nuclear supplier Group and the American Congress, both
being mere formalities. With presidential elections being held in America in Nov
ember this year, this deal must reach US Congress by July the latest beyond whic
h they will go in election mode and this opportunity for India will die its own
death.

Indian Left has earlier also shown where their loyalties lie when way back in 19
62, they had dubbed the Chinese Invasion of India as correct. This time also it
is China that will be at the receiving end if the Deal goes through and India em
erges as sixth nuclear power. Another reason why they are opposing this deal is
the minority vote bank for whose perceived pleasure they threw out the writer Ts
lima Nasrin from West Bengal recently. As the minority community is currently an
noyed with Bush they feel that this deal will adversely affect their vote count.
What our comrades fail to understand is that time and again minority community
in India has shown that they are Indian first and anything else later.