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An Investigation of Sediment Patterns at Nausehri Reservoir and Its Impact on

Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project

Thesis · September 2010

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4006.9206

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AN INVESTIGATION OF SEDIMENT PATTERNS
AT NAUSEHRI RESERVOIR AND ITS IMPACT
ON NEELUM-JHELUM HYDROPOWER
PROJECT

Author

Engr. Rehan Jamil

Reg. No. 2k8-MSc-WRI-01

Supervisor

Prof. Dr. Hashim Nisar Hashmi

Chairman, Civil Engineering Department (UET Taxila)
BSc. Engineering (Gold Medalist)
PhD & Post Doctorate (UK)

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

FACULTY OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY TAXILA

August 2010
AN INVESTIGATION OF SEDIMENT PATTERNS
AT NAUSEHRI RESERVOIR AND ITS IMPACT
ON NEELUM-JHELUM HYDROPOWER
PROJECT

Author

Engr. Rehan Jamil

Reg. No. 2k8-MSc-WRI-01

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of

M.Sc. Water Resources and Irrigation Engineering

Thesis Supervisor

Prof. Dr. Hashim Nisar Hashmi

Chairman, Civil Engineering Department (UET Taxila)

BSc. Engineering (Gold Medalist)
PhD & Post Doctorate (UK)

External Examiner’s Signature: __________________________________________

Thesis Supervisor’s Signature: __________________________________________

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

FACULTY OF CIVIL & ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY TAXILA

August 2010

i
 TO

MY WIFE & MY SON

ii
 ABSTRACT

This research investigates the inflow of sediments depending upon the stream flow,
density and kinematic viscosity of water. The process involves Multiple Linear
Regression technique for estimation of sediment load which is used in this research.
Furthermore the impact of sedimentation on the power generation capacity of
Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project is also assessed in the research. A general
equation is developed by using the software that is used to determine the sediment
concentration for a specific flow rate. The same equation can also be applied in
future for determining the sediment concentration when the flow rate is known. The
daily stream flow and suspended sediment data belonging to the station Nausehri
operated by the Water and Power Development Authority Pakistan is used as case
study.
The results indicate that the dam site experiences a mean annual sediment load of
3.74mst. With this much incoming sediment load the reservoir life comes out to be
45 years when no flushing is done. In addition it is also determined that the loss of
capacity of reservoir due to sedimentation will decrease the power generation
capacity of the hydropower plant by 86MW.

Key words: sedimentation; sediment load; reservoir life; power generation;

hydropower

iii
 UNDERTAKING

I certify that research work titled “An Investigation of Sediment Patterns at Nausehri
Reservoir and Its Impact on Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project” is my own work.
The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment. Where material has been
used from other sources it has been properly acknowledged / referred.

Signature

Engr. Rehan Jamil

Reg. No. 2k8-MSc-WRI-01

iv
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First of all, I thank Allah Almighty with the depth of my heart for His blessings and
help in completing this research in time. He is merciful and Lord of the world.

I am very grateful to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Hashim Nisar Hashmi for his extensive
support and guidance at every stage of the research. He fully encouraged me from the
start of the research till its completion. His kind attitude, patience and understanding
were worth appreciation.

I would like to express my gratitude to my colleagues who helped me generously for

the collection of required data for my research. I am especially thankful to Chief Engr.
Abdul Khaliq Hashmi and Senior Engr. Mumtaz Shah of NESPAK, Lahore who
guided me towards the right direction for obtaining the required information.

I would also like to acknowledge all the faculty of this institution who taught me
different courses during my Masters study. They all are very nice and cooperative.

Last but not least, my heartiest love and gratitude is for my parents and my family
members for their prayers and support throughout my study.

Author

v
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract ............................................................................................................... iii

Undertaking......................................................................................................... iv
Acknowledgement ............................................................................................... v
Table of Contents ................................................................................................ vi
List of Figures ................................................................................................... viii
List of Tables ...................................................................................................... ix

Chapter I: Introduction 1
1.1: Introduction 1
1.2: Water Resources of Pakistan 2
1.3: Utilization of Water in Pakistan 5
1.4: Shortage of Water in Pakistan 6
1.5: Problem Statement 7
1.6: Objectives of Research 8
1.7: Neelum Valley & Neelum River 9
1.8: Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project 10
1.9: Environmental Conditions 13
1.10: Construction of Project 15
1.11: Salient Features of The Project 16
Chapter II: Literature Review 19
2.1: Sediment Transport 19
2.2: Sediment Inflow 21
2.3: Sediment Load 22
2.4: Trap Efficiency of Reservoir 24
2.5: Reservoir Life 30
2.6: Density of Deposited Sediments 31
2.7: Power Generation 33
Contd…

vi
Chapter III: Methods & Techniques 37
3.1: River Data 37
3.2: Description of Data 38
3.3: Nausehri Gauging Station 41
3.4: Flow & Sediment Data at Nausehri Station 41
3.5: Regression Analysis 43
3.6: Use of UNISTAT Software 44
3.7: Sequence of Analysis 47
3.8: Regression Analysis Results 47
Chapter IV: Calculation & Results 49
4.1: Development of Equations 49
4.2: Sediment Concentration and Load 51
4.3: Density of Deposited Sediments at Nausehri 54
4.4: Life of Nausehri Reservoir 56
4.5: Effect of Power Generation 61
Chapter V: Conclusions & Recommendations 66
5.1: Conclusions 66
5.2: Recommendations 67

References 69
Abbreviations 71
Annexures 72
List of Annexures 73

vii
 LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. No. Page No.

Fig. 1.1 Graph Showing Water Availability vs Population Growth 6

Fig. 1.2 Layout Plan of Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project 11

Fig. 1.3 Layout of Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project 14

Superimposed on GIS Image

Fig. 2.1 Movement of Sediment Load 20

Fig. 2.2 Trap Efficiency Curve by Brown 27

Fig. 2.3 Trap Efficiency Curve by Brune 28

Fig. 2.4 Trap Efficiency Curve by Churchill 29

Fig. 2.5 Types of Turbines 35

Fig. 3.1 Comparison of Mean Monthly Water Discharge For The 42

Year 2000-2005

Fig. 4.1 Increase in Density of Deposited Sediments 55

viii
 LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Page No.

Table 1.1 Expected Reduction of Reservoir Capacity by The 4

Year 2025

Table 2.1 Initial Density of Clay, Silt and Sand 33

Table 2.2 Table for Value of K 33

Table 4.1 Calculation of Annual Suspended Sediment Concentration 50

Table 4.2 Percent Bed Load in Terms of Suspended Load 52

Table 4.3 Calculation of Total Annual Sediment Load 53

Table 4.4 Estimation of Reservoir Life by Trap Efficiency Method 59

ix
x
 CHAPTER 1

Introduction

1.1 Introduction
Rainfall, runoff, snowmelt, and river channel erosion provide a continuous supply of
sediment that is hydraulically transported in rivers and streams. All reservoirs formed
by dams on natural rivers are subject to some degree of sediment inflow and
deposition. Because of the very low velocities in reservoirs, they tend to be very
efficient sediment traps. Therefore, the amount of reservoir sedimentation over the
life of the project needs to be predicted before the project is built. If the sediment
inflow is large relative to the reservoir storage capacity, then the useful life of the
reservoir may be very short.
Correct estimation of sediment volume carried by a river is very important for many
water resources projects. It is well known fact that all reservoirs are designed to have
a volume known as The Dead Storage to accommodate the sediment income that will
accumulate over a specified period called the Design Life. The underestimation of
sediment yield results in insufficient reservoir capacities while the overestimation will
lead to over-capacity reservoirs. Only the appropriate reservoir design and operation
is sufficient to justify every effort to determine sediment yield accurately.
In this research, sediment characteristics of Nausehri reservoir will be studied and the
design life of the reservoir will be calculated. In addition the impact of sediment
deposition on the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project will also be studied.

1
1.2 Water Resources of Pakistan
God has blessed Pakistan with abundant water resources, with water flowing down
the Himalayas and Karakoram heights, from the world’s largest glaciers, a free and
unique bounty of nature for this land of alluvial plains.
As a result of this natural resource, today we have the marvelous and the largest
irrigation system of the world that irrigates over 16 million hectors of land, out of 34
million hector of cultivable land available.

1.2.1 Natural Resources of Water

Basically we have two natural resources of water available, which are discussed
below.
 Surface water
 Ground water

A. Surface Water Resources

In surface water we have three hydrological units. All the three units have been
discussed here briefly.

1. Indus River Basin

At the time of independence, we had about 67MAF water available for diversion; this
amount increased to about 85MAF by 1960. In 1960 Pakistan signed a water treaty
known as Indus Water Treaty with India, which brought major changes in the sources
of water for Pakistan. In that treaty the right of three eastern rivers i.e. Beas, Sutlej
and Ravi was given to India. Now the Indus river basin constitutes of the mountain
basins Indus plain, Karachi plains and desert areas of Sindh. Its principle rivers and
tributaries are Indus, Shyok, Gilgit, Astor, Siran, Kabul joined by Jhelum, Chenab
and Sutlej. It covers an area of 516,600 sq. km. Its sources of water are snow, melting
of glaciers and rainfalls. From this basin annually 141.67MAF of water is being
received.

2
2. Kharan Desert Closed Basin
It consists of areas of mountain basins of Quetta and basins of tributaries draining in
to Kharan desert.
Its main rivers are Pishin Lora, Baddo Rakhshan, Mashkhel and many other streams.
It covers an area of 120,100 sq. km. The main sources of water of this basin are
rainfall and nominal snow. Approximately 4.5MAF of water is being received from
this basin.
3. Makran Coastal Basin
Makran coastal basin constitutes of streams of Malir, Hub, Porali, Kud, Hingol, Nai,
Mashai, Dasht, Nihing and Kech. It covers an area of 122,400 sq. km and its main
source of water is rainfall. From this basin 0.78MAF of water is being received.

B. Ground Water Resources

The Indus plains constitute about 34 million hectors (over 85 million acres) of
cultivable land. The recharge or absorption to the ground is around 72MAF, out of
which about 48MAF is in the command of Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS).
Ground water is also found in some rain-fed (barani) lands and inter-mountain valleys
at depths varying from 100 to 200 feet in all over Pakistan.

C. Total Water Available Through Natural Resources

We receive an average of 141.67MAF of water from western rivers. Eastern rivers
contribute 8.47MAF of water. About 4MAF of water is received from outside Indus
plains. Water available above rim stations is 5.28MAF whereas rainfalls below rim
also contribute about 14MAF of water. Also about 66.80MAF of ground water is
available to us. In other words total of 240.22MAF of water is available to us from
the available natural resources at present.

1.2.2 Storage Reservoirs of Pakistan

Pakistan is having three basic reservoirs, namely Mangla dam reservoir, Tarbela dam
reservoir and Chashma barrage reservoir.

3
Some small reservoirs like Warsak, Baran, Khanpur, Tanda, Rawal, Simly, Mancher
lake, Kinjhar lake and Chotiari lake also contribute as small storage. Basic data of
some major reservoirs is discussed below.
1. Tarbela Dam Reservoir
World’s largest earth and rock filled dam was built at Tarbela on river Indus in 1976
with a gross capacity of 11.62MAF and a live storage capacity of 9.68MAF.
According to a study done in 2006 the total capacity of the reservoir has now reduced
up to 8.24MAF due to sedimentation, causing 29% storage loss.
2. Mangla Dam Reservoir
Mangla reservoir is the second major storage of Pakistan. It was built in 1967 on river
Jhelum with a gross capacity of 5.88MAF and live storage of 5.41MAF. Again due to
sedimentation, it was observed to have reduced in capacity to 4.52MAF by the year
2006, causing 23% loss of storage.
3. Chashma Barrage Reservoir
Chashma barrage is situated on river Indus and was built in 1972 with a gross storage
of 0.87MAF and live storage of 0.72MAF. It has also lost its storage capacity by 47%
due to sedimentation. The storage capacity was observed to be 0.46MAF by the year
2006.
The present and the expected sedimentation of major reservoirs of Pakistan, in terms
of storage capacity are shown in the table below.

Table 1.1: Expected Reduction of Reservoir Capacity By The Year 2025

4
1.3 Utilization of Water in Pakistan
In Pakistan the available water is utilized for different purposes. The basic utilization
is for irrigation and then it is also used for power generation, drinking and in
industries for manufacturing process. Some basic statistical data for the utilization of
water is discussed below.
1. Irrigation
Out of the total 240.22MAF of water, 172.21MAF of water is utilized for irrigation
purposes. Out of this volume of water which is used for irrigation, the canal
diversions is 105.23MAF, system losses are 144.40MAF, rainwater is 6.0MAF,
ground water is 41.30MAF and the utility of water above rims is 5.28MAF.
According to the above mentioned stats, more than 70% of water is utilized for
irrigation purpose.
2. Power Generation
Water released by the hydropower plants returns to the river system. The reservoirs
are operated on priority bases only for irrigation. Recent increase in thermal
generation has reduced the potential conflicts between water releases from reservoirs
for hydropower generation and irrigation. Now most of the annual storage is utilized
for irrigation and not for hydropower.
3. Domestic
Most of the rural and urban water is supplied from ground water through tube wells
and hand pumps except few cities like Karachi and Islamabad/Rawalpindi. Total
urban and rural (domestic and commercial) requirements estimated is 15-20% of the
surface water, out of which 80% return to the system, however with degraded quality.
Net consumption is normally about 5% of the total water available.
4. Industry
Water is also utilized in Industries basically for cooling purposes and also in
manufacturing processes. This utility is less than 1%.

5
1.4 Shortage of Water in Pakistan
We all know that our country is facing severe shortage of water these years. The main
reason is the gross negligence in the development and mismanagement of water
resources. The average annual inflow of the Indus and its tributaries is 141.67MAF,
out of which, around 106MAF is annually diverted in to the irrigation system. The
remaining 36MAF goes into the sea unused. Out of 106MAF, diverted into an
extensive irrigation net work, more than 50% is lost during the changeling and the
field application before it reaches the crop root zone.
At the time of independence 5000m3 of water was available for each Pakistani, which
has now reduced to 1000m3 due to the increase in population but on the other hand
decrease in the storage capacity of reservoirs. According a study of available water
resources in Pakistan, following graph was established showing the relationship of
available volume of water per capita and the population increase.

Fig. 1.1: Graph Showing Water Availability vs Population Growth

6
1.4.1 Impact of Water Shortage
Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan and the water flowing in the channels to the
crops is its blood line, and if there is no or less water then we should be prepared for
facing problems economically as well as socially. Since agriculture has remained a
major source of shouldering the economy, it has a vital role to play particularly in
terms of food security and employment of the population of the country. It contributes
around 35% to the GNP and employs about 44% of labor force. It also contributes
65% of our export earning. The adverse effects of water shortage on agriculture
would have a spiraling effect on the prevailing level of poverty. Some of the adverse
effects caused by the shortage of water can be summarized as follows.

 Less water means less agricultural yields and to fulfill the food requirements
of the nation, we will be dependent on other countries.
 Raising livestock is the main source of livelihood of rural areas. It is also an
important economic activity, which contributes 9.7% of GDP, will be affected
due to shortage of water.
 Due to less production of main crops, which are wheat, cotton, sugar cane and
rice, the Industries related to them will suffer adversely.
 Less agricultural outputs will compel people to head towards urban areas for
jobs, which will increase the unemployment further.
 The shortage of water can cause disputes between the provinces, which may
cause harm to the national integrity.

1.5 Problem Statement

Water is one resource that can not be generated, it can only be preserved. The only
manner to conserve this resource known to man so far is to construct dams. Dams
have been built for at least 5000 years and, their functions have evolved with the
developing needs of the society. Pakistan has world's largest irrigation network but
there has always been the shortage of water.

7
We have the distinction to have Tarbela dam, one of the largest water reservoirs but
neither can we supply enough water for irrigation nor we can generate sufficient
electricity due to ever rising silt level at the reservoir.
The increasing shortage of water, shrinking water capacity of the existing water
reservoirs and population growth has inevitably lead to find some practical solutions
for this perennial issue. According to a study, construction of smaller dams at the
strategic locations can resolve the issue to a greater extent besides producing cheaper
electricity.
Rising silt level has been a problem of every dam which is constructed. This problem
rises from the first day when the ponding is done in the reservoir. Proper measures
must be recommended and then implemented to reduce the silt deposition. The main
cause of delay in remedy of such type of problems is the lack of sediment
management and availability of future sedimentation studies for the projects. If these
studies are available in hand, then timely implementation becomes easy and possible.

1.6 Objectives of Research

This research is related with one of the huge hydropower projects of Pakistan which
is under construction since 2007. The project consists of a dam at Nausehri. This
research will discuss the expected sediment deposition throughout the life of Nausehri
dam and the impact of this deposit on the energy production. This study will help to
manage reservoir operation and storage at Nausehri and to overcome the effects of
sediment deposit on reservoir capacity. Furthermore, this study will also be helpful
for determining reservoir life at other locations of the country by using the respective
site data.
The purpose and objectives of this research can be listed as follows.
 Development of an equation to determine the sedimentation volume expected
in future depending upon stream flow, kinematic viscosity of water and
density of water.
 Computation of suspended sediment inflow at upstream of Nausehri dam,
based on the sediment data of the nearby gauging station.

8
  Determination of initial density of deposited sediments as well as the increase
in density with increase in deposition time.
 Determination of trap efficiency of the Nausehri dam.
 Computation of design life of the Nausehri reservoir.
 Impact of sedimentation on the total volume of reservoir and production of
electric power.

1.7 Neelum Valley & Neelum River

The Neelum valley is a Himalayan gorge in Azad Kashmir, along which the Neelum
River flows. This green and fertile valley is 250 km in length, and stretches its way
from Muzaffarabad all the way to Ath-muqam and beyond till Tao-butt. It is one of
the most attractive tourists’ places like Swat and Chitral but due to poor road system
is yet veiled to the outside world.

This area was badly affected by the 2005 earthquake and was cut from the outside
world as the roads and paths were filled with rubble. Now construction of an
international standard road is in progress. Neelum has a great importance before and
after partition due to its beauty. Sharda was once most advanced and international
standard institution during Buddhist era. It is named after the river Neelum which is
famous for its crystal bluish water and that is the reason for its name. Some
traditionalists say that valley is named due to a precious stone Neelum (Sapphire).

Generally Neelum valley starts just after Muzaffarabad but in political division the
area from Muzaffarabad to Chelhana is named Kotla valley in election division.
District Neelum starts from Chelhana and goes to Taobutt. Valley is famous for its
lush greenery, forests, slop hills and water falls.

The old name of Neelum river was Kishan-Ganga. It enters in the Neelum valley
from Tao-butt and continues its journey through narrows and mountains. Different
streams in the way add its strength and finally tributes into river Jehlum at Domail in
Muzaffarabad, 41km downstream of Nausehri.

9
1.8 Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project 4
Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project (NJHP) is located in the vicinity of
Muzaffarabad (AJ&K). It envisages the diversion of Neelum river water through a
tunnel out-falling into Jhelum river. The intake of Neelum-Jhelum is at Nausehri. The
Powerhouse will be constructed at Chattar Kalas. After passing through the turbines
the water will release into Jhelum River about 4km South of Chatter Kalas. Neelum
Jhelum Hydropower Project has installed capacity of 969MW. The project will
produce 5.15 billion units of electricity per year.

1.8.1 Main Components

There are two main components of the project. One is the dam and the reservoir, and
the other is the penstocks and powerhouse. These are discussed briefly as follows.
1. Gravity Dam and Reservoir
A concrete gravity dam 135m long and 47m high will be constructed on Neelum
River at Nauseri. The dam is designed for over-topping. The dam will create a head
pond of 8 million cubic meters which will allow a peaking reservoir of 2.08 million
cubic meters to meet daily peaking of power for more than 4 hours. A six gate tunnel
intake structure of 280cumecs capacity will be connected with three conventional
flushing surface basins installed at their end for taking sediment back into river. The
layout plan and the sectional details of dam are attached at the end as Annexure-E and
Annexure-F respectively.
2. Penstocks and Powerhouse

The total length of head race tunnel is 28.5km. A 15.1km stretch of the tunnel from
the Nausehri will be constructed as a twin tunnel system each with x-section of
42sq.m. The remaining head race tunnel down to the surge chamber will be a single
tunnel having x-section of 82sq.m. The tunnel crosses Jhelum river approximately
380 m below its bed. The tunnel will be accessed by 7 Admits for removal of
excavated spoil. The Surge Chamber consist of 340m high riser shaft and 820m long
surge tunnel, Four steel lined Penstock tunnels 150m long and having 3.8m internal
diameter will also be constructed.

10
The under ground power Station will have 4 units with a total capacity of 969MW.
The Power Station will be connected by with Rawat Grid station through 500KV
double circuit transmission line.

Fig. 1.2: Layout Plan of Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project

11
1.8.2 Project Organization
The Project is running through Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Company WAPDA
(Water and Power Development Authority), headed by a Board of Directors. The
Chairman of the BOD is Chairman WAPDA. Members of WAPDA and three
General Managers are Members of the Board. Chief Executive Officer, the
representative of Board of Directors, has his office at Lahore whereas Project
Director (Chief Engineer) has his office at Muzaffarabad (AJ&K).

1.8.3 Project Benefits

Following are some of the benefits which will be attained by the completion of the
project.
 Reduction of dependence on thermal power generation through reducing the
import of fossil thereby saving in foreign exchange.
 Reduction in the shortage of electricity allover the country.
 Employment opportunities during construction and later on operation of the
project.
 Improved standard of living infrastructure.
 Social-economic uplift of the area.

1.8.4 Project Financing

GOP has approved financial arrangement for project, which includes the following
terms.
 Establishment of Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Company for project
implementation.
 Imposition of surcharge @ 10 paisa per unit on power tariff for NJHP fund
providing for 50% fund requirement.
 Balance equity to be arranged through loans and bonds etc.
 Negotiations for foreign component are in progress with IDB, Saudi Fund and
Republic of China.

12
1.8.5 Environmental Impact
According to the conducted studies, there will be no adverse effects of the project on
environment, where as minor resettlement of population will only be required at some
locations.

1.9 Environmental Conditions

Some of the environmental conditions of the site for Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower
Project are discussed briefly as follows.

1.9.1 Physiography
The catchments of the Neelum river above the intake at Nausehri is 6800km2, with
the greater portion situated in AJK, which is almost 62% of the total. The majority of
the catchment area is mountainous. The only level areas consist of small terraces
located along the river valleys. The terrace at Nausehri is a typical example which is
about 20ha in extent.

1.9.2 Climate
The project area is located with in the Lower Monsoon Zone. The climate of the area
is very similar to that of sub-mountainous tracts of the Rawalpindi and Hazara
Districts. It is fairly hot in summer and cold in winter. June and July are the hottest
months while January is the coldest month. In higher elevations between Neelum and
Jhelum catchments divide, snow occurs. Records show that the absolute minimum
temperature recorded at Muzaffarabad is -4oC, while the maximum temperature on
record is 42oC. Average annual rainfall is 1373mmwhich is reasonably well
distributed. The mean annual humidity is recorded as 76%.

13
Fig. 1.3: Layout of Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project Superimposed on GIS Image

14
1.10 Construction of Project
Construction contract for NJHP was awarded on July 07, 2007 to M/s CGGC-CMEC
Consortium China for implementation of the project at a cost of Rs. 90.90 billions
including Rs. 46.499 billions foreign component. Construction Agreement was signed
on December 19, 2007. Letter of Commencement was issued on January 30, 2008.

1.10.1 Project Consultants

Neelum-Jhelum Consultants (NJC), a joint venture, comprises of MWH International

Inc. USA, NORPLAN Norway, National Engineering Services Pakistan NESPAK
(Pvt.) Limited, Associated Consulting Engineers ACE (Pvt.) Limited and National
Development Consultants of Pakistan. These all companies have been selected for
Engineer Design and Supervision (EDS) as Project Consultants. Consultancy
Agreement was signed on May 15, 2008. Letter of Commencement was issued on
May 16, 2008. Services have been started since June 03, 2008. So far 300 Drawings
had been issued up to the end of March 2009.

1.10.2 Construction Areas

The Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project is split into three main geographic areas for
construction. The areas are known as C-1, C-2 and C-3. Brief information of each
area is as under.
1. Nausehri Area (C-1)
This area consists of a 47m high mass concrete gravity intake dam and sedimentation
basins near to Nausehri on the Neelum River. The dam has four large low-level gates
designed to pass floods up to the 1:100 year recurrence period and also allow the
reservoir to be drawn for sediment flushing. The sedimentation basins are designed to
trap sediments that could erode the turbine blades at the powerhouse. The intake
works are designed to divert up to 280m3/s in to the headrace tunnels. A flap gate is
also provided at top for debris removal.

15
2. Head Race Tunnel (C-2)
The headrace tunnel is 28.5km long and conveys the water from the intake area at
Nausehri to the Powerhouse area near Chattar Kalas. The first 15.1km comprises of
twin tunnels, each of x-section area 43m2 and the rest of the route, a single tunnel of
x-section area 82m2 has been proposed. The tunnel will be excavated by drilling and
blasting, with shotcrete and rock bolts for general support and full concrete lining at
localized weaker zones. The invert of whole tunnel is concrete lined. The tunnel
crosses below the Jhelum river at a depth of 380m.
3. Chattar Kalas Area (C-3)
The headrace tunnel will feed four vertical shaft-Francis turbines with an installed
capacity of 969MW housed in an underground powerhouse. The water is discharged
back into the Jhelum River near Zaminabad through a 4km tailrace tunnel.
Associated facilities include a transformer hall, surge shaft, access tunnels, a 500KV
switchyard and housing facilities for the operations and maintenance personnel.

1.10.3 Study Areas for Thesis

Following are the areas of the Neelum Jhelum Hydropower Project which are
considered for study in this research thesis.
1. The Reservoir
In this part the sedimentation studies will be done. The expected sediment load in
future will be calculated.
2. The Power Generation System
In this part the power generation capacity of the project will be analyzed according to
the calculated amount of sediment inflow.

1.11 Salient Features of The Project 4

Some of the salient features of the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project are given
below, categorized according to the scope of works.

16
1.11.1 Reservoir
 Catchment Area 6800km2
 Capacity 8Mm3
 Highest Water Level El. 1012.5m
 Lowest Water Level El. 1006.0m
 Surface Area (At HWL) 0.49km2

1.11.2 Dam
 Location Nausehri, 41km East of Muzaffarabad
 Dam Type Concrete Gravity
 Height 47m
 Length 135m
 Crest Elevation El. 1012.6m
 Bridge Way Elevation El. 1015m
 Spillway Crest Elevation El. 976m

1.11.3 Headrace Tunnels and Gates

 Radial Gates (Bottom) 4 Nos., Each of 12m Width, 8m Height
 Flap Gate (For Debris at Top) 1 No., 10m Width, 9.5m Height
 Intake Culverts 6 Nos.
 Upper Tunnel 2 Nos., 15.1km Length, 7.3m Dia Each
 Lower Tunnel 1 No., 13.4km Length, 9.6m Diameter

1.11.4 Design Parameters

 Design Discharge 280m3/s
 Max. Gross Head 420m
 Peak Discharge Volume 2.8Mm3
 Drawdown (For Peak Volume) 6.5m
 Peak Operating Time 2hrs – 45mints

17
1.11.5 Power Station
 Location Chattar Kalas, 22km from Muzaffarabad
 Position Underground
 Width 19.4m
 Length 153m
 Steel Penstocks 4 Nos., Each of Dia 3.4m, Length 80m
 Installed Capacity 969MW
 Turbines 4 Nos., Vertical Shaft Francis
 Units 4 Nos., Each of 242MW Capacity
 Max. Annual Output 5254GWh

1.11.6 Sedimentation Works

 Type Open Air (Conventional Flushing)
 Sedimentation Basins 3 Nos.
 Cross Section 3m x 23m Each
 Length 300m Each

1.11.7 Tailrace Tunnel

 Outfall Location Zaminabad, 4km South of Chattar Kalas
 Length 3.4km
 Diameter 9.6m

18
 CHAPTER 2

Literature Review

2.1 Sediment Transport

Due to runoff from rainfall or snowmelt, soil particles on the surface of a watershed
get eroded and transported through the processes of sheet, rill, and gully erosion.
Once eroded, sediment particles are transported through a river system and are
eventually deposited in reservoirs, in lakes, or at sea. Particles of soil have size
ranging from very tiny to large boulders. The fine particles in the river water are carried
in suspension as suspended load, while the larger solids move on or near the bed as bed
load. When the river water reaches a reservoir, its velocity and turbulence are reduced
and as a consequence the bed load generally gets deposited on the upstream of the
reservoir, but the suspended sediments which take a long time to settle down spread
more evenly all over the reservoir bed, and frequently the thickest deposit of such
sediments are below the deepest standing water nearer the dam. Two main categories
of sediment load are further discussed below.

2.1.1 Suspended load

The suspended load which comprises the greatest part of total sediment load is
important in reservoir sedimentation. Suspended load is very fine and is generally
carried away by the river to the delta or by irrigation channels to the fields. The
suspended load is classified in terms of sediment diameter into the following grades.

 Coarse sediment >0.20 mm diameter

 Medium sediment >0.20 mm and <0.075 mm diameter

19
  Fine sediment <0.075 mm diameter

The movement of the suspended load can be divided into following types.

1. Solution
Soluble minerals dissolve in the river water and are carried away as solution.
Minerals that dissolve easily include Calcium and Sodium. This type of transportation
occurs at almost any time when there is water.

2. Suspension

Fine materials can be suspended in the water and therefore are carried away in such
type of a movement. These particles are too light to sink to the bottom of the fast
moving river. Materials that can be transported by this method of movement include
silt, clay and some part of sand particles.

Fig. 2.1: Movement of Sediment Load

2.1.2 Bed load

Bed load denotes the particles moving on or near the bed. Movement of particles
takes place by rolling, sliding and hopping. It is the heavy material, such as gravel and
cobbles that moves by rolling along the bed of a river because it is too heavy to be
lifted into suspension by the currents of the river.

20
Bed load is especially important during periods of extremely high discharge and in
landscapes of large topographical relief, where the river gradient is steep, such as in
hilly areas. The movement of the bed load can be divided into following types.

1. Saltation
Leaping up and down the riverbed, coarse sand and small rocks are transported down
the channel. Such type of movement of sediments is known as saltation. It happens
due to the increase in river energy and the gravel are lifted and dropped along the
river.

2. Traction
Large boulders require large amount of energy to displace them. It generally happens
in the case of heavy flooding. The gravel particles usually slide and roll along the
riverbed.

2.2 Sediment Inflow

The amount of sediment inflow to a reservoir depends on the amount of sediment
yield produced by the upstream watershed. The factors that determine the sediment
yield of a watershed can be summarized as follows.
 Rainfall amount and intensity
 Soil type and geologic formation
 Ground cover
 Land use
 Topography
 Runoff
 Sediment characteristics (Grain size, Mineralogy etc)

After sediment particles have been removed from the watershed surface, some of
them are transported through the river system into the reservoir. Some of the eroded
material is transported to a lower area for temporary storage before they eventually
move through the river system to a terminal point of deposition.

21
The transportation of sediments and then its deposition depends upon some
characteristics of water carrying those sediments and the sediments itself. By
combining these characteristics which are responsible for sedimentation a relation has
been developed by the researcher which is called as Sedimentation Parameter. The
relation can be shown as follows.
 w k2
G (Eq. 2.1a)
 s Ds3
Where G = Sedimentation Parameter

ρw = Density of Water (kg/m3)

νk = Kinematic Viscosity of Water (m2/s)

γs = Unit Weight of Sediments (N/m3)

Ds = Nominal Diameter of Sediment Particles (ft)

2.3 Sediment Load

Once sediment particles enter a river system, the rate of sediment transport can be
computed by sediment transport equations or measured from river gauging stations.
Some of the methods for the calculation of sediment load are discussed in the coming
topics.

2.3.1 Computations for Suspended Load

For the most reliable sediment yield estimates, frequent and continuous data records
are required. Some of the commonly used methods for the estimation of suspended
sediment load are as follows.

1. Flow-Sediment Rating Curve Method

Flow-sediment rating curves are drawn for each year. The equation of rating curve
can be expressed as follows.

QS  aQWb (Eq. 2.1)

22
Where Qs = Sediment load (tons/day)

Qw = Water discharge (cfs)

a, b = Constants

Using historic daily flow data, the values of constants a and b from sediment rating
curve for particular year and suspended sediment load Qs are determined on daily
basis.

2. Sediment Concentration Hydrograph Method

This method yields very accurate results if frequency of sediment sampling is very
high, i.e., about 25 samples per year, therefore it cannot be used for present study.

3. Computations for Suspended Sediment Load for Site

Sediment computations are mainly carried out by using the data at a representative
gauging stations giving proper allowance for the watershed area.

2.3.2 Computations for Bed Load

Measurement of bed load is extremely difficult. Most bed load movement occurs
during periods of high discharge on steep gradients when the water level is high and
the flow is extremely turbulent.
Such conditions also cause problems when making field measurements. Despite many
years of experimentation, sediment-monitoring agencies have so far been unable to
devise a standard sampler that can be used without elaborate field calibration or that
can be used under a wide range of bed load conditions. However, following formulae
are used for the estimation of the bed load.
 Meyer-Peter and Muller Formula
 Parker Formula
 Brown-Einstein Equation
 Toffaleti Formula

23
When in such cases where the above formulae are not applicable, the bed load is
generally taken as a percentage of suspended loads which is susceptible to sufficiently
accurate measurement. This percentage usually varies from 3% to 30% of the total
suspended load depending upon the nature of bed material etc.

2.3.3 Computation for Total Sediment Load

The daily total sediment loads at dam site may be computed by adding the bed load
and the suspended sediment load.
STotal  SSuspended  SBed (Eq. 2.2)

Once the estimated sediment inflow to a reservoir has been established, attention
must be given to the effect the deposition of this sediment will have upon the life and
daily operation of the reservoir.
The mean annual sediment inflow, the trap efficiency of the reservoir, the ultimate
density of the deposited sediment, and the distribution of the sediment within the
reservoir must be considered in the design of the dam.

2.4 Trap Efficiency of Reservoir

The amount of sediment deposited within a reservoir depends on the trap efficiency.
Reservoir trap efficiency is the ratio of the deposited sediment to the total sediment
inflow. The equation for trap efficiency can be written as follows.

 V V 
TE   i o  *100% (Eq. 2.3)
 Vi 

Where Vi = In flowing sediment load

Vo = Out flowing sediment load

Trap efficiency of a reservoir primarily depends upon the fall velocity of the various
sediment particles, flow rate and velocity through the reservoir, as well as the size,
depth, shape, and operation rules of the reservoir.

24
The particle fall velocity is a function of particle size, shape, and density; water
viscosity; and the chemical composition of the water and sediment.

2.4.1 Significance of Trap Efficiency

The useful life of a reservoir can be either preserved or prolonged by minimizing
sediment inflow and maximizing sediment outflow through a reservoir. The
significance of trap efficiency can be categorized as follows.
 Estimation of useful life of reservoir
 Producing Area-Capacity curves of reservoir

As sediment is trapped, the reservoir storage capacity is decreased and in turn, the
trap efficiency decreases.

2.4.2 Factors Influencing the Trap Efficiency

Following are some of the factors, which affect the trap efficiency of the reservoir.
These factors can be divided into two categories.
 Hydraulic characteristics
 Sediment characteristics
A. Hydraulic Characteristics
Following are some hydraulic characteristics of the reservoir which affect the trap
efficiency.
1. Storage Capacity-Inflow ratio(C/I)
The capacity-inflow ratio is a measure of retention time. The greater the retention
time, the lower is the average transit velocity and associated turbulence, and greater
the rate of deposition.
2. Reservoir shape
The shape of the reservoir determines the effective retention time in which the
effective time becomes much less than the retention time as determined by the
capacity-inflow ratio. Because of the shape of the reservoir, portions of the pool have
ineffective flow areas.

25
3. Type of outlets
Placement of bottom outlets, particularly if they are timely opened to pass density
currents (also referred to as mud or gravity flows) out of the reservoirs, can reduce
trap efficiency of clays.
4. Reservoir operation
Lowering of the pool elevation decreases the retention time which subsequently
decreases the trap efficiency, effectively done during higher flows carrying high
sediment concentrations.

B. Sediment Characteristics
The sediment characteristics which affect the trap efficiency can be summarized as
follows.

 Particle size distribution of the inflowing sediment load

 Particle shape
 The behavior of fine sediments under varying temperatures, concentration,
water chemical composition, secondary currents, and turbulence.

Grain size distribution and particle shape determine particle fall velocities, and in
conjunction with water depth and detention time, determine the percentage of the
sediment that deposits in suspension. Hence fine sediments (clay and silt) are usually
the only sediments that remain in suspension long enough to reach the outlets of the
dam.

2.4.3 Methods for Measurement of Trap Efficiency

Trap efficiency is computed based on the inflow and outflow of sediment assessed
from the sediment observations in the downstream immediately after the outlets.
While allocating space for dead storage in a reservoir, trap efficiency is considered at
least 95% and only on rare and special occasions it falls below 90%. Generally the
following Empirical methods for estimating reservoir trap efficiency are used, which
are discussed briefly.

26
1. Brown’s Curve (Capacity-Watershed Method)
Brown’s curve is useful if the watershed area and reservoir capacity is the only
parameters known. Brown (1944) proposed the curves for the computation of trap
efficiency by relating the ratio of reservoir capacity (C, acre-ft) and watershed area
(W, square miles) to trap efficiency, as represented by the following empirical
relationship.
 
 1 
TE  1   *100% (Eq. 2.4)
 1 K  C 
  
W 
The value of K ranges between 0.046~1.0, with a median value of 0.1, but K
increases with increase in average grain size. However, variations are observed
mainly for reservoirs having the same C/W ratio having different capacity-inflow
ratios.

Fig. 2.2: Trap Efficiency Curve by Brown

2. Brune’s Curve (Capacity-Inflow Method)

Brune (1953) presented a set of curves for normal ponded reservoirs and developed
an empirical relationship between trap efficiency and capacity-inflow ratio. The
curves were generated by using data from normal ponded reservoirs and the following
equation was developed for the median curve.

27
  0.19log   
C 

TE  0.97 I
 100% (Eq. 2.5)
 
However, Brune’s curve is considered to be more accurate than Brown’s curve.

Fig. 2.3: Trap Efficiency Curve by Brune

3. Churchill’s Curve (Sediment Index Method)

Churchill (1948) developed a trap efficiency curve of settling basins, small reservoirs,
flood retarding structures, semi-dry reservoirs or reservoirs that are frequently sluiced.
This is based on the percentage of sediment that passes through a reservoir, known as
Sedimentation Index (SI) relating to trap efficiency using Tennessee Valley Authority
Reservoir data. The Sedimentation Index of a reservoir is the ratio of period of
retention (C/I ratio) to the reservoir mean velocity. If the retention time or mean
velocity can be obtained, the period of retention (R) can then be computed by
obtaining the capacity (C) of the reservoir at the mean operating pool elevation and
dividing by the average daily inflow rate (I). The mean velocity (V) is obtained by
dividing the average daily inflow rate by the average cross-sectional area (A) in
which the average cross-sectional area is obtained by dividing the capacity by the
reservoir length (L, at the mean operating pool elevation), which can be written
mathematically as follows.

28
 R C I C
SI  Where R , V and A
V I A L
By putting the above value in the equation of SI, we get the following relation.

C I 
2

SI 
L
So the equation of trap efficiency can be written as follows.
TE  1  SI  100% (Eq. 2.6)

Borland (1971) suggested the following procedures for Churchill’s approach:

 Compute the reservoir capacity at mean operating pool level the specific
period.
 Compute the daily average inflow for the period considered.
 Compute the period of retention by dividing the capacity by inflow rate.
 Compute the reservoir length at mean operating pool level.
 Compute the mean velocity equal to the inflow divided by the average cross-
sectional area, i.e. average cross-sectional area may be computed by dividing
the reservoir capacity by the reservoir length.
 Compute the Sedimentation Index which is equal to the period of retention
divided by the mean velocity. After the Sedimentation Index has been
computed the percent of incoming silt passing through the reservoir can be
obtained using the following curve.

Fig. 2.4: Trap Efficiency Curve by Churchill

29
2.4.4 Comparison of Methods
Brown’s method is the simplest relationship because it requires only the reservoir
capacity and watershed area. If the annual inflow rate is known, Brune’s curves are
generally more accurate. However, Churchill’s method requires the additional
information of reservoir length. It must be noted that none of these methods include
an analysis of sediment characteristics; therefore, judgment must be exercised in the
use of these methods.

2.4.5 Equations for Trap Efficiency of Reservoir

Many empirical studies showing the relation reservoir storage capacity, water inflow
and Trap efficiency have been conducted. The Brune is the most widely used method
for estimating the sediment retention in reservoirs. Brune curves were drawn based on
data from 44 normal ponded reservoirs in the United States. Brune plotted the trap
efficiency against the reservoir capacity-inflow ratio. The Brune graph is composed
of three curves, one median and two envelope curves.
The first envelope curve is meant for primarily highly flocculated and coarse grained
sediments, the median curve is meant for medium sized sediments whereas the
second envelope curve is meant for primarily colloidal and dispersed fine-grained
sediments.
In 1979, Gill developed empirical equations which provided a very close fit to three
curves proposed by Brune. The equations are as follows.
 Primarily Highly Flocculated and Coarse Grained Sediments

C I 
2

TE  100 (Eq. 2.7)

0.994701 C I 2  0.006297  C I   0.3  105 
 
 Medium Sized Sediments

TE 
C I  100 (Eq. 2.8)
0.012  1.02  C I  

30
  Primarily Colloidal and Dispersed Fine-Grained Sediments

C I 
3

TE  100 (Eq. 2.9)

1.02655  C I   0.02621 C I 2  0.133 103  C I   0.110 5 
3
 

2.5 Reservoir Life

The usable life of the reservoir can be defined as the period up to which the reservoir
can serve the defined purpose. The design life of the reservoir is generally its useful
life. Useful life can also be defined as the period during which the sediment collected
does not affect the intended primary use of the reservoir. Another term which is used
when the life of reservoir is considered is known as the economic life of reservoir
which can be defined as the period after which the cost of operating the reservoir
exceeds the additional benefits expected from its continuation.
Full life period is that when no capacity is available in the reservoir for useful
purpose. In most of the developed countries full life is said to be arrived for a
reservoir when half of its total capacity is depleted.
Useful life is an important design parameter of a reservoir which may affect the
economic feasibility and sustainability of a water resources project.
In 1979, Gill proposed a direct method for estimation of useful life of a reservoir
which correlates the reservoir capacity with age in years algebraically. With the
relationship between sedimentation rates, trap efficiency, specific weight of sediment
deposited, the storage available after sedimentation for a given period was estimated
using the following equation.
GTET
Co  C  (Eq. 2.10)
WT
Where Co = Initial capacity of reservoir
C = Reduced capacity of reservoir at any time T
G = Characteristic weight of annual sediment inflow
T = Time in years
WT = Specific weight (density) of deposited sediments

31
2.6 Density of Deposited Sediments
With passage of time, the density of freshly deposited sediment increases by
reduction in its volume due to consolidation and thus enhances the reservoir capacity
to some extent. The basic factors influencing density of sediment deposited in a
reservoir are as follows.
 The manner in which the reservoir is operated
 The texture and size of deposited sediment particles
 The compaction or consolidation rate of deposited sediments

The reservoir operation is probably the most influential. Sediments that have
deposited in reservoirs subjected to considerable drawdown may be exposed for long
periods during reservoir operation and therefore, cannot undergo greater
consolidation. However, the reservoirs operating with fairly stable pool do not allow
the sediment deposits to dry out and consolidate as much. But the size of the
incoming sediment particles has a significant effect upon density.
Sediment deposits (composed of silt and sand) have higher densities than those in
which clay predominates. The increase in density is due to larger sand content in
suspended load.
The reservoir operation can be classified into the following four types as per
recommendation of the US Bureau of Reclamation, 1987.
Operation Reservoir Operation
1 Sediments always submerged or nearly submerged
2 Normally moderate to considerable reservoir drawdown
3 Reservoir normally empty
4 Riverbed sediments

Once the reservoir operation has been selected, the initial density of the sediment
deposits can be estimated using the following equation.
Wo  Wc pc  Wm pm  Ws ps (Eq. 2.11)

32
Where Wo = Initial density of sediments
pc, pm, ps = Percentages of clay, silt, and sand, respectively
Wc, Wm, Ws = Density of clay, silt, and sand, as given in the
table below

Table 2.1: Initial Density of Clay, Silt and Sand

Reservoir Initial density, lb/ft3 (kg/m3)
Operation Clay (Wc) Silt (Wm) Sand (Ws)
1 26 (416) 70 (1120) 97 (1550)
2 35 (561) 71 (1140) 97 (1550)
3 40 (641) 72 (1150) 97 (1550)
4 60 (961) 73 (1170) 0 97 (1550)

Lane and Koelzer (1943) presented an empirical formula for the 3density-time
relationship, which takes into account the grain size of particles and the method of
operating the reservoir. The equation is as follows.
W  Wo  K log T (Eq. 2.12)

Where W = Bulk density of deposited sediments at age of T years

Wo = Initial density of sediments
K = Constant, the values are given in the table below

Table 2.2: Table for Value of K

Reservoir K value, inch-lb (metric units)
Operation Clay Silt Sand
1 16 (256) 5.7 (91) 0
2 8.4 (135) 1.8 (29) 0
3 0 0 0

Cumulative value of K for a deposit of sediments can be calculated by using the

following equation.
K  Kc pc  K m pm  K s ps (Eq. 2.13)

33
Miller (1953) developed the following relationship for the determination of average
density of deposited sediments after T years of reservoir operation.
 T
WT  Wo  0.4343K   ln T   1 (Eq. 2.14)
T 1 
Where WT = Average density of deposited sediments after T years of
operation

2.7 Power Generation

Sedimentation in a reservoir reduces its power generation capacity as well. It is due to
the reduction in available head of water or it could happen due to the less discharge
available to be diverted towards turbines. First, we will discuss the turbines briefly as
follows.

2.7.1 Hydraulic Turbine

A turbine is a rotary generator that extracts energy from a fluid or air flow and
converts it into useful work. In this section we will only discuss the hydraulic turbines.
The simplest turbines have one moving part, a rotor assembly, which is a shaft or
drum, with blades attached.
Moving fluid acts on the blades, or the blades react to the flow, so that they move and
impart rational energy to the rotor. Turbines usually have the casing around the blades
that contains and controls the working fluid. A working fluid contains potential
energy and kinetic energy. Mainly two types of hydraulic turbines are used.
 Impulse turbine (Example: Pelton wheel turbine)
 Reaction / Propeller turbine (Example: Francis turbine, Kaplan turbine)

2.7.2 Francis Turbine

Francis turbine is an inward flow reaction turbine that combines radial and axial flow
concepts. Francis turbines are the most common water turbine in use today. They
operate in a head range of 10m to several hundred meters and are primarily used for
electrical power production.

34
 Fig. 2.5: Types of Turbines

In this type of a turbine the working fluid changes pressure as it moves through the
turbine, giving up its energy. A casement is required to contain the water flow. The
turbine is located between the high pressure water source and the low pressure water
exit, usually at the base of the dam. The inlet is spiral shaped. Guide vanes direct the
water tangentially to the turbine wheel, known as runner. This radial flow acts on the
runner’s vanes, causing the runner to spin. The guide vanes may be adjustable to
allow efficient turbine operation for a range of water flow conditions.
As the water moves through the runner its spinning radius decreases, further acting on
the runner. This property in addition to the water’s pressure helps Francis turbines
harness water energy efficiently.
In Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project, there are four Vertical Shaft Francis
Turbines, which have been designed for the power generation.

2.7.3 Turbine Power

The power of a turbine is mainly dependent on the quantity of water, available head
of water and its own efficiency. The equation for the calculation of power of turbine
can be written as follows.
P  T  QH (Eq. 2.15)

35
Where P = Turbine power (kW)
ηT = Turbine efficiency (Percentage)
γ = Unit weight of water (kN/m3)
Q = Discharge (m3/s)
H = Head of water (m)

When the power is expressed in terms of Horse Power, the above equation takes the
following form.
T  QH
P (Eq. 2.16)
0.746

2.7.4 Generator Capacity

The capacity of a generator which is attached to the turbine can be calculated by
using the following formula.
PG
CG  (Eq. 2.17)
cos 

Where CG = Generator capacity (kW)

P = Turbine power (kW)
ηG = Generator efficiency (Percentage)
α = Percentage of power at best operating time of turbine
(Usually 0.95)
cosφ = Power Factor (Usually 0.8)

From the above equations it is clear that the power generation capacity of a turbine is
in direct relation with the head and the discharge. So when the head or discharge or
both will reduce, the power generation will also reduce.

36
 CHAPTER 3

Methods & Techniques

3.1 River Data

All of the river data used for analysis in this research has been obtained from Surface
Water Hydrology Project Department of WAPDA. In 1960, The Surface Water Circle
was created by WAPDA with the responsibility of collecting surface water data
required for projects of WAPDA and further general investigations. The circle was
designated as Surface Water Hydrology Project in 1966. The above mentioned
department of WAPDA publishes a document by the end of each year named as An
Annual Report of River and Climatological Data of Pakistan.
The purpose of the report is to present the data collected by the Surface Water
Hydrology Project for each river of Pakistan every year. The report is being published
in three volumes. The volumes are named as follows.
 Volume-I River Discharge, Sediment and Quality Data
 Volume-II Daily and Hourly Precipitation Data
 Volume-III Precipitation, Evaporation, Temperatures, Relative Humidity,
Solar Radiation and Wind Movement Data

It is assured by the SWHP that the data published in this report is collected and
computed by the best methods available and are considered to be accurate enough for
general use. All field data and computations by the SWHP are on record and open to
inspection at their designated offices. For this research, Volume-I for the years 2000
to 2005 have been used for reference. The data collected by SWHP at Nausehri
gauging station Installed on Neelum River has been extracted from the document.

37
3.2 Description of Data

A brief description of the data obtained from SWHP Department, WAPDA, is given
below. Different aspects of data have been described as follows.

3.2.1 Definition of Terms and Abbreviations

The definition of hydrologic terms as used in this report is given below.
Abbreviations and units used are given within parentheses.
1. Mean daily, monthly and annual discharge (m³/s)
It is the mean discharge within this period of time. Discharge here is expected in
cubic meters per second, which is the rate of discharge of stream whose cross
sectional area is one square meter and whose velocity is one meter per second.
2. Specific Discharge (m³/s/km²)
It is the average rate of discharge from each square kilometer of area of drained,
assuming that the runoff is distributed uniformly in time and area. The specific
discharge is given here in cumecs per square kilometer.
3. Runoff (mm)
It is the quantity of water discharge from an area (discharge basin) in a given period
of time, measured in terms of mean depth over the area. The runoff is given here in
millimeters.
4. Volume (Mm³)
It is the quantity of water discharge within a period of time. Volume here is given in
millions of cubic meters.
5. Parts per Million (PPM)
It is the mass of dissolved solids by mass of water-sediment mixture multiplied by
one million.
6. Milli-equivalent per Liter (me/l)
It is one thousand of an equivalent of an ion or compound in one liter of solution.

38
3.2.2 Gauge Height Record
Records of river stage are observed either from periodic readings of a staff gauge or
wire weight gauge or from an automatic water stage recorder which gives a
continuous record.
The non-recording gauges are generally read from 0800 to 1600hrs daily during
periods of low flow and at more frequent intervals during floods.
Daily mean gauge heights for non-recording gauges are the arithmetic average of the
observations during periods of uniform flow or are computed form gauge-height
graphs based on observations during periods of rapidly changing stage. Daily mean
gauge heights for automatic recording gauges are computed directly from the pen
trace.

3.2.3 Discharge Measurement

Measurements of discharge are made using the current meter and following the
general methods used by the US Geological Survey Department. This method
consists of taking depths and observations of velocity in a cross-section of the stream,
with the sections spaced so that not more than 5% of the discharge is measured in any
one section. Velocity observations between 40 and 70 seconds are taken at 0.2 and
0.8 of the flow depth. If the flow is shallow, the velocity observation is only taken at
0.5 or 0.6 of the flow depth. Various suspensions of the current meter are used for
recording the flow. These include calibrated rods for wading measurements and lines
with sounding weights suspended from reels for use on bridges, over head cable ways
or boats.
The frequency of discharge measurement varies from station to station depending
upon stability of the channel and importance or accessibility of the station. At most
stations measurement is done twice a month except during flood periods when these
may be made as often as several times a day.

3.2.4 Discharge Computations

Daily mean discharges are computed by application of daily mean gauge height to
rating tables from prepared from stage-discharge relation curves based on discharge
measurements.

39
Any day showing rapid changes of gauge height is subdivided for daily discharge
computations. Any extensions to the rating curves that are necessary to define
extremes of discharge are made on the basis of logarithmic plotting. Velocity area
studies or indirect determinations of peak discharge such as slope-area or contracted
opening measurements or computations of flow over dams or weirs. The discharge is
computed by the shifting control methods if the stage-discharge relation is subject to
change because of frequent changes in the physical features that form the control. In
this method correction factors, based on discharge measurements are used in applying
the gauge heights to the rating tables.

3.2.5 Presentation of Discharge Data

The data presented for a discharge station include a station description and a table of
daily, monthly and yearly discharges. Observations of sediment concentrations and
the results of chemical analysis which are also listed are described separately.
The description of each discharge station gives location, drainage area, records
available, average discharge, extremes of discharge, description of the gauge,
methods of measurement and remarks concerning accuracy, factors effecting the
records and the items of general interest.
In the table of daily discharge the figures given are derived from the gauge heights,
with exceptions noted at the bottom of the page. Days at which discharge
measurement was taken are marked with asterisk except where they were made very
frequently, in which case the frequency is indicated in the station description.

3.2.6 Sedimentation Data

Suspended sediment concentration is determined from water samples collected using
sediment samplers designed to take in water without disturbing the flow. The
samplers are of two general types. The depth-integrating sampler takes water in
continuously while the sampler is moved at a uniform rate in a vertical section, from
the surface to the bottom and back. The point-integrating sampler is used to obtain a
sample at a specific point in the vertical.

40
Samples are usually taken at three verticals in the stream, so located that each
represents approximately one-third of the flow. At low stages when the water is
relatively clear, only one sample is taken at the center of the flow. A set of samples is
taken at the time of each discharge measurement, but may be taken more frequently
in a monsoon season at certain important stations. Temperature is also observed with
the time of each sampling. The samples are analyzed either for total concentration by
drying and weighing or for particle size distribution by use of bottom withdrawal or
visual accumulation tubes, pipettes and sieves using distilled water as settling media.
It should be noted that these samples include only sediments that are suspended in
water and not that transported as bed load. Results of analyses of sediment samples
for each discharge station are listed in chronological order following the table of daily
discharges.
The figures given on each line are the total concentration in parts per million of
suspended solids by weight and the size distribution in percent of the total. The
temperatures and discharges given are instantaneous value for the time at which
samples are taken.

3.3 Nausehri Gauging Station

There are a number of river flow measurement stations on both the Neelum and
Jhelum rivers. On the Neelum river the station with longest records is at
Muzaffarabad, just above the confluence with the Jhelum river. In June 1990 a gauge
was established at Nausehri bridge near the proposed Neelum dam site. Both flow and
stage are measured below the bridge in a fast flowing section of the river. A second
staff gauge was also erected later at the dam site itself about 1km downstream. Both
gauges were destroyed in the 1992 flood and subsequently reconstructed.

3.4 Flow & Sediement Data at Nausehri Station 1, 2, 3

The complete flow and suspended sediment concentration data extracted from the
Volume-I of SWHP report for the year 2000 to 2005 is attached at the end of the
thesis as Annexure-A and Annexure-B respectively. In addition a comparison of
monthly discharge for all these years is also developed in this thesis.

41
It is clear from the comparison that the discharge at Nausehri station starts increasing
in March and it is maximum in May and June. The discharge is observed to be
minimum from the start of October till the end of February.

1200.00

1000.00
Discharge (Cumecs)

800.00

600.00

400.00

200.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months (Jan to Dec)

Fig. 3.1: Comparison of Mean Monthly Water Discharge For The Year 2000-2005

In the tables of Suspended Sediment Concentration Data shown on next pages, two
additional columns have been added named as Density of Water and Kinematic
Viscosity of Water. The values written in these columns have been taken from the
table of Physical Properties of Water which is attached as Annexure-C with this thesis.
Each value of density and kinematic viscosity of water corresponds to the temperature
of water observed on the specific day when suspended sediment concentration was
measured.

42
3.5 Regression Analysis

Often in practice, one is called upon to solve problems involving sets of variables
when it is known that there exists some inherent relationship among the variable. In
such a case there is at least one dependant variable and the other variables may act as
dependant or independent variables. A relation is determined by using the statistical
procedures. This relation between the dependant variable and the independent
variable may be Linear or multiple linear, Polynomial, Non-linear, Logistic or
exponential. For this study, the procedure of Multiple-Linear Regression is used.

3.5.1 Linear Regression

A reasonable form of a relationship between one dependent and one independent
variable by using the process of regression analysis can be written as follows.
y  b0  b1 x (Eq. 3.1)
Where y = Dependant variable
x = Independent variable
bo = Constant
b1 = Coefficient of independent variable

3.5.2 Multiple-Linear Regression

Similarly, in most research problems where regression analysis is applied, more than
one independent variable is needed in the regression model. The complexity of most
scientific mechanism is such that in order to be able to predict an important response,
a multiple regression model is needed. When this model is linear in the coefficients, it
is called a multiple linear regression model.
The general equation of a multiple linear regression model can be written as follows.
y  b0  b1 x1  b2 x2  .....  bi xi (Eq. 3.2)
When the model is analyzed without a constant term, the above equation takes the
form as shown below.
y  b1 x1  b2 x2  .....  bi xi (Eq. 3.3)

43
An important feature of regression models without a constant term is that the method
they employ for calculation of R2 and adjusted R2 values is fundamentally different
from that of regression with a constant term. Therefore, R2 values calculated for
regressions with and without a constant term are not comparable. Multiple linear
regression models without a constant term have been generated for this study. The
value of R2 is then calculated by using following relation.
Ssq(Regression)
R2  (Eq. 3.4)
Ssq(Total)
Where Ssq = Sum of squares

3.6 Use of UNISTAT Software

UNISTAT Version 5.6 is a general purpose statistical package designed for students
and researchers. The software is very easy to use and user friendly. It can be used as a
teaching aid for introductory as well as advanced statistical courses. UNISTAT has
proved to be an extremely useful tool in the analysis of data in most branches of
science, including medical and social sciences, economics, engineering etc. the
software includes a lot of statistical modules, some of which are listed below.

 Data and function plots

 Statistical tests, correlation coefficients and tables

 Regression and analysis of variance

 Multivariate analysis

 Time series analysis

For analysis of data in this research, the module of Regression Analysis of this
software has been used. This module is able to solve any type of regression analysis.

44
3.6.1 Input Data
Following are the parameters which need to be defined before the regression analysis
is performed on the software. This can be done by opening the Variable Selection
window for linear regression.

1. Independent Variable

The column of independent variables is selected by clicking the Variable tab in the
variable selection window. In this study there is more than one independent variable,
so each column will be selected separately and will be placed in the Variable
category.

2. Dependent Variable
The column of the dependent variable is selected by clicking the Dependent Tab in
the Variable Selection window. There is only one dependent variable for this
research.

3. Selection of Output Options

After defining the dependent and independent variables, in the next step the required
output parameters are selected. The Output Option Dialogue shows various output
parameters which can be selected as required. By clicking the All Tab, all types of
output parameters are selected by the software itself.

3.6.2 Output Data

After analysis the software shows the results or the output data of the analysis. The
output results consist of various categories which are discussed briefly below.
1. Regression Results
The main regression output displays a table for coefficients of the estimated
regression equation, their standard errors, t-statistics, significance values (from the t-
distribution) and confidence intervals, for the significance level specified in the
regression Variable Selection Dialogue. If any independent variables are omitted due
to multi-co-linearity, they are reported at the end of the table.

45
2. ANOVA of Regression

The total variation of the dependent variable is partitioned into the Regression part
which is due to the linear influence of independent variables and the Error part which
is expressed in Residuals. The F value is the ratio of the mean squares for regression
and mean squares for the error term.
3. Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients
This is a symmetric matrix with unity diagonal elements, it gives the correlation
between the regression coefficients and is obtained by dividing the elements of (x’x)-1
matrix by the square root of the diagonal elements corresponding to its row and
column.
4. Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients
This option displays a symmetric matrix where diagonal elements are variances and
the off-diagonal elements are the co-variances of the estimated regression
coefficients. This matrix is sometimes referred to as the dispersion matrix and it can
also be obtained by multiplying (x’x)-1 matrix by the estimated variance of the error
terms.
5. Actual and Fitted Values
A character plot of estimated and observed values is generated for the dependent
variable. The estimated values are displayed, and like residuals, they can be added to
the data matrix for further analysis. Among other purposes these values can be used
in estimating two or three stage east squares models and analysis instrumental
variables in general.
6. Residuals
This option will display the difference between observed and estimated values of the
dependent variable for each observation in the form of a character plot. Scaling will
be made according to the largest deviation all residuals will be plotted between minus
and plus the maximum deviation. Alongside the plot, values of residuals will also be
displayed.

46
7. Confidence Interval for Mean/Actual Values
The two confidence intervals are computed as follows.
 Confidence interval for the mean of y is calculated by using following
equation.

x  t 2 S x  x ' x  x '
1
(Eq. 3.5)

 Confidence interval for actual values of y is calculated by using following

equation.

x  t 2 S 1  x  x ' x  x '
1
(Eq 3.6)

This option can also be used to make predictions for the dependent variable and their
confidence intervals.

3.7 Sequence of Analysis

In this research, some equations are developed for the expected suspended sediments
in the Neelum river at Nausehri gauging station. Regression analysis is used to
develop the equations.
By using the relation of Sedimentation Parameter from Eq. 2.1a, it is considered that
the amount of suspended sediments present in the flow is the function of discharge,
density of water and the kinematic viscosity of water. It can be shown with the help
of following relation.
S s  f  Q,  w , k 

The general form of regression equation based on above function then comes out to
be as follows.
S s  b1Q  b2  w  b3 k (Eq. 3.7)
Now we are concerned with the unknown values of the coefficients b1, b2 and b3 of
their respective variables. To determine the values of the coefficients the analysis
procedure has been divided into two parts. The scope of work included in each part is
described below.

47
Part-1 This part includes the analysis of annual data only. Equation for each
year will be developed separately by analysing the sediment and discharge data of the
respective year along with other parameters on the UNISTAT software. Each
developed equation will only be applicable for the determination of suspended
sediment concentration for the year whose data is used for analysis.

Part-2 By using the equations developed in analysis Part-1 for each year,
another table of suspended sediment concentration will be prepared. By analysing that
table again using the same process of regression analysis, another single equation will
be formed. Now this single equation will be applicable for all the years because it is
developed by using the mean data of each year.

3.8 Regression Analysis Results

Regression analysis results for the working of Part-1 & 2 are attached as Annexure-D
at the end.

48
 CHAPTER 4

Calculation & Results

4.1 Development of Equations

After analysis of the Neelum river data at Nausehri gauging station by using
UNISTAT software, the coefficients b1, b2 and b3 have been obtained. With the help
of these values of coefficients, following regression equations have been developed.
As analysis has been done in two parts, the equations are written here separately.

4.1.1 Data Analysis Part-1

The equations developed for suspended sediment concentration for each year are as
follows.
Year 2000 Ss  0.86Q  0.08 w  69.86 k (Eq. 4.1)

Year 2001 Ss  0.09Q  0.32  w  179.36 k (Eq. 4.2)

Year 2002 Ss  0.59Q  0.00  w  55.77 k (Eq. 4.3)

Year 2003 Ss  0.35Q  0.70  w  454.46 k (Eq. 4.4)

Year 2004 Ss  0.36Q  0.25 w  140.15 k (Eq. 4.5)

Year 2005 Ss  0.03Q  0.23 w  71.51 k (Eq. 4.6)

Where Ss = Suspended sediment concentration (PPM)
Q = Discharge (m3/s)
ρw = Density of water (kg/m3)
νk = Kinematic viscosity of water (106 m2/s)

Each of the above developed equation is applicable for the determination of

suspended sediment concentration only for the respective year.

49
 As we have the mean values of discharge, density of water and kinematic viscosity of
water for all the years, for which river data is available. So by putting the mean values
in the equations for the respective years, following data table has been obtained.

Table 4.1: Calculation of Annual Suspended Sediment Concentration

Mean Values Suspended
Time Density of Kinematic Viscosity Sediment
Sr. No. Discharge 6
Water of Water (x10 ) Concentration
Years m3/s kg/m 3 2
m /s ppm
1 2000 149.33 998.7 1.139 128
2 2001 131.65 998.5 1.113 132
3 2002 220.23 998.9 1.197 197
4 2003 281.47 999.6 1.304 206
5 2004 227.36 999.2 1.232 159
6 2005 348.62 999.0 1.158 157

Calculation is shown below as an example for the year 2000.

Ss  0.86Q  0.08 w  69.86 k

Ss  (0.86 149.33)  (0.08  998.7)  (69.86 1.139)

Ss  128.43  79.90  79.57

S s  128.1 128

So the mean suspended sediment concentration comes out to be 128ppm for a mean
discharge of 149.33m3/s, for the year 2000.

4.1.2 Data Analysis Part-2

In this part of data analysis, Table 4.1 has been used. The process of regression
analysis is repeated by using the data obtained from the equations developed in the
data analysis Part-1.
Now in this case single equation is developed which is applicable for all the years.
This equation is similar to the equations developed in data analysis Part-1. The
equation is as follows.
Ss  0.07Q  0.26  w  344.02 k (Eq. 4.7)

50
4.2 Sediment Concentration and Load
This section deals with the calculation of sediment concentration in water. Suspended
sediment concentration as well as the sediment concentration for bed will also be
calculated in this section.

4.2.1 Suspended Sediment Concentration and Load

The suspended sediment concentration has been calculated in Table 4.1 for all the
years from 2000 to 2005, now we will calculate the suspended sediment load for all
the years.
Considering Year 2000 as an example, the calculation for the suspended sediment
load can be done by using the following procedure.
As 1PPM = 0.001g/kg of water
So 128PPM = 0.128g/kg of water
Now we have to calculate the weight of water. The mean discharge for the year 2000
is 149.33m3/s, and the mean density of water for this year has been recorded as
998.7kg/m3.
So total weight of water = 998.7kg/m3 x 149.33m3/s
= 149135.87kg/s
This is the weight of 149.33m3 of water passing through the section in one second.
Now the weight of sediments in this amount of water can be calculated as follows.
Weight of suspended sediments = 0.128g/kg x 149135.87kg/s
= 19089.39g/s = 19.09kg/s
This is the weight of the suspended sediments which is being transported by
149.33m3 of water in one second. By using this concept we can determine the annual
sediment load for the year 2000.
Annual suspended sediment load = 19.09kg/s x 60 x 60 x 24 x 365
= 602022240kg = 0.66mst
So the load of suspended sediments in the year 2000 was approximately 0.66mst
(Million Short Tons).
SSuspended = 0.66mst

51
 4.2.2 Bed Load
For the purpose of calculation of total load, the bed load is also required to be
included. A safe percentage value of bed load in terms of suspended load is suggested
as 30 for this purpose. This assumption has been taken from the feasibility report of
NJHP prepared and published by WAPDA. In addition as mentioned in Design of
Small Dams by USBR, a table showing the relationship between the suspended
sediment concentration and the percent bed load in terms of suspended load is used
here as well. The table is being reproduced here as shown below.

Table 4.2: Percent Bed Load in Terms of Suspended Load

Suspended Texture of % Bed Load

Streambed
Condition Sediment Suspended In Terms of
Material
Concentration (ppm) Material Suspended Load
1 <1000 Sand 20 to 50% Sand 25 to 150
2 1000 to 7500 Sand 20 to 50% Sand 10 to 35
3 >7500 Sand 20 to 50% Sand 5
Compacted
Clay,
Small amount
4 Any Concentration Gravel, 5 to 15
up to 25% Sand
Cobbles or
Boulders

Clay and
5 No sand <2
Any Concentration Silt

From Table 4.1, it can be obtained that the mean suspended sediment concentration
for the years 2000 to 2005 is 163ppm. By using Table 4.2, it is observed that this case
falls in Condition-1 with the stream bed material of 21% sand and the value of bed
load in terms of suspended load comes out to be 30. It implies that the expected bed
load is nearly equal to 30% of the suspended sediment load. Now it can be written in
the form of equation as follows.
SBed  0.3SSuspended

So the bed load for the year 2000 can be calculated as shown below.
SBed = 0.3 x 0.66 = 0.20mst

52
 4.2.3 Total Sediment Load
Total sediment load is given by the equation 2.2.
STotal  SSuspended  SBed

STotal  0.66  0.20  0.86mst

So the total sediment load for the Year 2000 at Nausehri station is found out to be
0.86mst. The calculation for total sediment load for all the consecutive years from
Year 2000 to Year 2005 are shown below in tabular form.

4.2.4 Compiled Sediment Load Data

The annual sediment load data for the years 1991 to 1999 is available. This data has
been taken from the Sediment Appraisal of Pakistan Rivers published by WAPDA in
August 2001. All the available suspended sediment load data (For the Year 1991-
1999) and the sediment load data computed in this research (For the Year 2000-2005)
has been compiled in tabular form as shown below. The table also shows the
computed total annual sediment load for all 15 years.

Table 4.3: Calculation of Total Annual Sediment Load

Suspended Annual Sediment Load
Mean
Sediment Suspended Bed Sediments @
Sr. No. Year Discharge Total
Concentration Sediment 30% of Ss
m3/s ppm mst mst mst
1 1991 - - 3.80 1.14 4.94
2 1992 - - 5.63 1.69 7.32
3 1993 - - 4.48 1.34 5.82
4 1994 - - 3.72 1.12 4.84
5 1995 - - 4.67 1.40 6.07
6 1996 - - 5.66 1.70 7.36
7 1997 - - 1.54 0.46 2.00
8 1998 - - 2.51 0.75 3.26
9 1999 - - 3.17 0.95 4.12
10 2000 149.33 128 0.66 0.20 0.86
11 2001 131.65 132 0.60 0.18 0.78
12 2002 220.23 197 1.50 0.45 1.95
13 2003 281.47 206 2.01 0.60 2.61
14 2004 227.36 159 1.25 0.38 1.63
15 2005 348.62 157 1.90 0.57 2.47
Mean 2.87 0.86 3.74

53
4.3 Density of Deposited Sediments at Nausehri
As discussed in Chapter-2, with passage of time, the density of freshly deposited
sediment increases by reduction in its volume due to consolidation and it result in
enhancement of the reservoir capacity to some extent. First, the density of the freshly
deposited sediments is calculated, with the help of which the density of deposited
sediments is estimated. As per recommendation of USBR, the selected reservoir
operation is 1 i.e. sediments always submerged or nearly submerged. Sediment
Appraisal of Pakistan Rivers by WAPDA shows the following percentage of sand, silt
and clay in the Neelum river at Nausehri gauging station.
 Sand 21%, Silt 58%, Clay 21%

By using Equation 2.11 and the values of initial density of sand, silt and clay, the
calculation for the density of initial deposit of sediments is as follows.
Wo  Wc pc  Wm pm  Ws ps

Wo   416  0.21  1120  0.58   1550  0.21

Wo  87.36  649.6  325.5

Wo  1062.46 1062.5
As per the construction schedule, the project will be operational in Year 2015. So the
density of initial deposit of sediments after one year of operation i.e. Year 2016,
comes out to be 1062.5kg/m3.

Now by using Equation 2.14, we can determine the average value of density of
deposited sediments in time T. For calculation we need to determine the value of K
first. The value of K is calculated by using Equation 2.13 and Table 2.2 as follows.
K  Kc pc  K m pm  K s ps

K   256  0.21   91 0.58   0  0.21

K  53.76  52.78  0  106.54

We assume T = 10 Years for the purpose of sample calculation. By putting values of
T and K in Equation 2.14, we have the following results.

54
  T
WT  Wo  0.4343K   ln T   1
T 1 
 10
WT  1062.5  0.4343 106.54   ln10  1
10  1 
10 
WT  1062.5  46.27   2.3  1
9 
WT  1134.48

So the average density of deposited sediments after 10 years of reservoir operation i.e.
Year 2026, comes out to be 1134.48kg/m3. By using the same calculation procedure,
the average density of each consecutive year from Year 2016 to Year 2215 has been
done and a graph has been developed showing the behavior of increase in density of
deposited sediments. The graph is shown below.

Fig. 4.1: Increase in Density of Deposited Sediments

From the graph it is clear that the initial density of deposited sediments is
1062.5kg/m3 in Year 2016 and it will become 1262.62kg/m3 at the end of Year 2215
after 200 years of reservoir operation. An average increase of 0.09% per year in
density of deposited sediments is observed.

55
4.4 Life of Nausehri Reservoir
For the purpose of estimation of reservoir life, two methods have been used. One is
the trap efficiency method and the other method is the use of formula for direct
calculation of reservoir life.
Now here we assume that the reservoir will have lived its life when it is 80% filled
with sediments. In other words when the capacity of the reservoir will reduce up to
20% of its initial capacity it will become non-operational. All the preceding
calculations have been done on the basis of this assumption. The calculations done by
both methods are shown below.

4.4.1 Estimation by Trap Efficiency Method

The column wise description of the calculation table is given below.
Column-1 & 2 In column 1 and 2, the reservoir capacity has been shown in
terms of percentage and volume respectively. Calculations have been done by taking
the interval for capacity reduction of 5%.
Column-3 This column shows the Capacity-Inflow ratio for the respective
reduced capacity of reservoir. The inflow to the reservoir is calculated as follows.
Mean discharge = 226.44m3/s
Annual Inflow = 226.44 x 60 x 60 x 24 x 365
= 7141011840m3 = 7141Mm3
So at Sr. No. 2, when the capacity of reservoir is 7.6Mm3, the C/I ratio comes out to
be as follows.
7.6
Capacity-Inflow Ratio =  0.0011
7141
Column-4 This column shows the trap efficiency calculated by using the
Gill’s equation. As the C/I ration is too low that it is not possible to plot the value on
Brune’s curve so the trap efficiency has been calculated by using the equation
proposed by Gill which is based on Brune’s median curve for normal ponded
reservoirs. Example calculation is as below.

56
At Sr. No. 2, C/I ratio is 0.0011, by putting in Eq. 2.8.

TE 
C I  100
0.012  1.02  C I  

TE 
 0.0011 100  8.13%
0.012  1.02  0.0011 

Column-5 This column shows the average value of trap efficiency of two
consecutive values in terms of percentage. At Sr. No. 2, the average of 8.52% and
8.13% comes out to be 8.33%.
Column-6 & 7 In column 6 and 7, the annual load of deposited sediments is
shown in terms of mass and volume respectively. The mass of deposited sediments is
calculated by multiplying the average trap efficiency with the mean total annual
sediment load obtained in Section 4.2 i.e. 3.74mst.
Example calculation for Sr. No. 2 is given below.
3.74  8.33
Mass of annual deposit of sediments =  0.311  0.31mst
100
As we know that 1mst = 907.18 x 106kg
So 0.31mst = 0.31 x 907.18 x 106 =281.23 x 106kg
Now we will calculate the volume. The density of initial deposit of sediments is
1062.5kg/m3, so the volume comes out to be as follows.
281.23 106
Volume of annual deposit of sediments =  0.26Mm3
1062.5
Column-8 This column shows the loss in capacity for the capacity
reduction interval of 5%. So the loss in capacity for each interval comes out to be
0.4Mm3.
Column-9 The last column shows the number of years during which the
reservoir looses its 5% capacity for each interval. This value is obtained by dividing
the loss of capacity with the volume of annual sedimentation for respective value of
each interval.

57
Sum of Years At the end, all the values obtained in the Column-9 are
summed up to determine the total sum of years. This value shows the duration in
which the reservoir looses its 80% of volume in term of years. By summing up all the
values of last column, the ultimate value comes out to be 45.

So the estimated life of Nausehri reservoir calculated by trap efficiency method is 45

years. The calculation table for the estimation of reservoir life by trap efficiency
method is shown on next page.

58
 ESTIMATION OF RESERVOIR LIFE
(TRAP EFFICIENCY METHOD)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Reservoir Capacity-Inflow Trap Efficiency (%) Annual Sedimentation
Capacity Loss No. of
Sr. No. Capacity Ratio By Gill's Eq. Average Load Volume Years
% Mm3 - % % mst Mm3 Mm3
1 100 8.0 0.0011 8.52 - - - - -
2 95 7.6 0.0011 8.13 8.33 0.31 0.26 0.4 1.5
3 90 7.2 0.0010 7.74 7.94 0.30 0.25 0.4 1.6
4 85 6.8 0.0010 7.34 7.54 0.28 0.24 0.4 1.7
5 80 6.4 0.0009 6.94 7.14 0.27 0.23 0.4 1.8
6 75 6.0 0.0008 6.54 6.74 0.25 0.21 0.4 1.9
7 70 5.6 0.0008 6.13 6.33 0.24 0.20 0.4 2.0
8 65 5.2 0.0007 5.71 5.92 0.22 0.19 0.4 2.1
9 60 4.8 0.0007 5.30 5.51 0.21 0.18 0.4 2.3
10 55 4.4 0.0006 4.88 5.09 0.19 0.16 0.4 2.5
11 50 4.0 0.0006 4.46 4.67 0.17 0.15 0.4 2.7
12 45 3.6 0.0005 4.03 4.24 0.16 0.13 0.4 3.0
13 40 3.2 0.0004 3.60 3.81 0.14 0.12 0.4 3.3
14 35 2.8 0.0004 3.16 3.38 0.13 0.11 0.4 3.7
15 30 2.4 0.0003 2.72 2.94 0.11 0.09 0.4 4.3
16 25 2.0 0.0003 2.28 2.50 0.09 0.08 0.4 5.0
17 20 1.6 0.0002 1.83 2.06 0.08 0.07 0.4 6.1

Sum (No. of Years) = 45

Table 4.4: Estimation of Reservoir Life by Trap Efficiency Method

59
4.4.2 Estimation by Direct Formula
By using Gill’s equation for capacity of reservoir (Eq. 2.10) and the equation of trap
efficiency for median curve (Eq. 2.8), another equation for useful life of the reservoir
has been derived in this research thesis. Both the equations which are used for
derivation are given below.
GTET
Equation of reservoir capacity Co  C 
WT

Equation of trap efficiency TE 

C I 
 0.012  1.02  C I  

It is important to note here that Eq. 2.8 is applicable only for medium sized sediments.
In other words we can conclude that the reservoir life which we will obtain after the
solution of this equation will be considered correct in the case when all of the
sediment particles inflowing to Nausehri reservoir are of medium size. As per
assumption when the capacity of the reservoir will reduce up to 20% of its initial
capacity it will become non-operational. We can write it in the form of equation as
follows.
C  0.2Co

Now by putting the values of TE and C in Eq. 2.10 we can derive the equation for
direct calculation of reservoir life. The complete derivation can be shown as follows.

GT 0.2 Co I
Co  0.2Co 
WT 0.012  1.02  0.2 Co I  

GT 0.2 Co I
0.8Co 
WT  0.012  0.204 Co I 

WT  0.012  0.204 Co I 
T I  0.8Co
G 0.2Co

WT
T I  0.048  0.816 Co I 
G
WT
T  0.048I  0.816Co  (Eq. 4.8)
G
Above equation is the equation for direct calculation of reservoir life.

60
Here we have the following values.
Initial capacity of reservoir = Co = 8Mm3
Annual inflow into reservoir = I = 7141Mm3
Now we need to calculate the values of the average density of deposited sediments
and the characteristic weight of mean annual sediments.
Assuming that when the reservoir is operated for the first time, WT = Wo.
So, as discussed earlier 1mst = 907.18 x 106kg
So 3.74mst = 3.74 x 907.18 x 106kg
= 3392.85Mkg
Above value is the value of G, the characteristic weight of mean annual sediment
inflow. Now by putting all the values in Eq. 4.8 we get the following results.
WT
T  0.048I  0.816Co 
G
1062.5
T  0.048  7141  0.816  8
3392.85
T  0.31 (342.77  6.53)  108.28 108
So the estimated life of reservoir calculated by direct formula comes out to be 108
Years.

4.5 Effect on Power Generation

Four Vertical Shaft Francis Turbines have been designed for the Neelum-Jhelum
Hydropower Project. One turbine has been designed for each unit, so there are total of
four units which will work separately to produce the required amount of energy. Each
turbine is of same capacity and hydraulic characteristics.
Some of the design parameters can be listed as follows.
Design discharge of the project = 280m3/s
Total number of units = 4 Nos.
Design discharge for one unit = 70m3/s

61
4.5.1 Capacity of Installed Turbines & Generators
Assuming the turbine efficiency as 78%, we have all other values of the variables
involved in Eq. 2.15.
Head available = H = 420m
Design discharge of one unit = Q = 70m3/s
Unit weight of water = γ = 9.81kN/m3
By putting values in Eq. 2.15, the turbine power can be calculated as follows.
P  T  QH

P  0.78  9.81 70  420

P  224962.92kW
224962.92
P  301558.9 301560hp
0.746
The capacity of generator is given by Eq. 2.17. Assuming the generator efficiency as
90%, we have the following calculation.
PG
CG 
cos 
224962.92  0.9  0.95
CG 
0.8
CG  240429.12kW  240.43MW 242 MW

So with the help of calculations it is justified that the power generation capacity of
one unit comes out to be 242MW.

4.5.2 Effect of Sedimentation on Power Generation Capacity

By putting the value of P from Eq. 2.15 into Eq. 2.17 we can develop a relationship
between available head, design discharge and the generator capacity. The derivation
is shown below.
PG
Generator capacity is given by CG 
cos 

62
As P  T  QH
Putting in above equation we get.

CG 
T  QH G
cos 
TG QH
CG  (Eq. 4.9)
cos 
It is clear from Eq. 4.9, that the generator capacity is dependant upon the available
head, discharge and the product of turbine and generator efficiencies.
Now we will calculate the value of the lowest available head for the working of
turbines.
The gross design head = H = 420m
Maximum Water Level = h1 = 1012.5m
Minimum Water Level = h2 = 1006.0m
Difference in levels = h1-h2 = 1012.5-1006.0 = 6.5m
So the maximum allowable decrease in level of water for Nausehri reservoir is 6.5m.
Now we will calculate the head loss in the tunnels. Head Loss in the penstocks is
given by the following equation.
0.1875
 10.3n 2Q 2 L 
D 
 hf
 
By rearranging the equation we get
 10.3n 2Q 2 L 
h f   0.1875  (Eq. 4.10)
 D 
Where n = Roughness Coefficient (Steel=0.012)
Q = Water Discharge
L = Length of Penstock
hf = Head Loss
D = Diameter of Penstock

63
For Twin Tunnels
 10.3  0.0122  1402  15100 
h f1    2
 
0.1875
7.3

hf1  10.91 2  21.82m

For Single Tunnel

 10.3  0.0122  2802  13400 
h f2   
 
0.1875
9.6

h f2  8.99m

So the total head loss in the tunnels is given by the following equation.
h f  h f1  h f2 (Eq. 4.11)

hf  21.82  8.99  30.82m

Now the decrease in gross head comes out to be as follows.

Minimum allowable head = H = 420-6.5-30.82 = 382.68m
By putting all the known values in Eq. 4.9, we can determine the generator capacity
when the reservoir is working at minimum water level. The calculations are shown
below.
TG QH
CG 
cos 
0.78  0.9  9.81 70  382.68  0.95
CG 
0.8
CG  219065.28kW  219.07MW

So each generator will produce 219.07MW of power at minimum water level in

reservoir.
Difference in power generation = 240.43-219.07 = 21.36MW
Total difference for four units = 21.36 x 4 = 85.44MW

64
The above mentioned calculations show that when the head above the turbines is
reduced the generation capacity of the turbines will also decrease and a total
difference of almost 86MW could occur if the reservoir water level reaches to
minimum allowable level.

65
 CHAPTER 5

Conclusions & Recommendations

5.1 Conclusions
After studying the calculations and results obtained in this thesis, the conclusions can
be listed as follows.

1. The equation to determine the suspended sediment inflow to Nausehri

reservoir by using Regression Analysis comes out to be

Ss  0.07Q  0.26  w  344.02 k

The above equation is applicable for Nausehri reservoir for any value of water
discharge when the values of kinematic viscosity and density of water are
known.

2. The mean annual sediment load discharge to the reservoir calculated by using
the developed equations and the available data is 3.74mst.

3. Nausehri has a very small reservoir. The ratio of the reservoir capacity to
average annual runoff (C/I) is 0.0011 (0.11%) and the ratio of reservoir
capacity to sediment inflow is 2.14.

4. The initial density of deposited sediments after one year of operation i.e. in
Year 2016 will be 1062.5kg/m3 and the mean annual increase in the density of
deposited sediments will be 0.09%.

5. By using Gill’s equation based on Brune’s Curve the trap efficiency of the
Nausehri reservoir is calculated as 8.52%.

66
 6. The life of Nausehri reservoir calculated by using the method of trap
efficiency comes out to be only 45 years; where as the calculation done by
using the direct formula shows the life of the reservoir as 108 years.

7. In normal conditions the 45 year life of Nausehri reservoir is considered to be

correct, whereas the reservoir life of 108 years is correct only in the case when
all the sediment particles are of medium size.

8. In the case of reservoir operating at minimum allowable water level, the

power generation capacity of each unit will reduce by 21.36MW, causing a
cumulative reduction for all four units by 86MW. The total capacity of the
project could reduce up to 883MW in such a case.

9. The reduction in water level of reservoir causes a small impact of reduction in

power generation. The reduction in terms of percentage is found to be 8.87%.

5.2 Recommendations
Based on the findings in the research, following are the recommendations.

Recommendations Related With Sedimentation

1. Proper sediment management system for watershed areas must be adopted to

control the volume of sediment inflowing into the Nausehri reservoir. This
will increase the effective life of reservoir.

2. The inflow of sediments can be controlled by doing plantation in the water

shed areas. Another method is to build sediment control dams which works as
sediment traps.

3. The bottom sluice gates of the dam must be operated regularly as per design
and as per the requirement such that the deposition of sediments is minimal.

67
 4. Proper maintenance is required for the sedimentation basins. The sediments
settled in the basins must be flushed by water on regular basis such that they
may not enter the intake tunnels which can cause damage to penstocks and
turbines.

Recommendations Related With River Flow & Sediment Data

5. Data obtained by WAPDA shows the record of sediment concentrations for

only some of the days of the year. Some more gauging stations at upstream of
the Nausehri dam site must be installed to record the continuous data of flow
and sediment discharge on daily basis.

6. In addition to the above, more gauging stations will help in recording the data
in case of high flood seasons as well as in case of some natural catastrophe
like the earthquake of 2005.

7. All of the gauging stations should have the system of being monitored at
different sites, such that if in case the site of any gauging station becomes
inaccessible due to any natural catastrophe, the data from those gauging
stations could be recorded from other sites.

68
 REFERENCES

1. SWHP (2001), Sediment Appraisal of Pakistan Rivers, 1960-1998, Surface

Water Hydrology Project, SWHP Publication no. 57, WAPDA, Lahore,
Pakistan.

2. SWHP, 1968-71 Annual report of river and climatologically data of Pakistan,

Vol-I, River discharge, sediment and quality data, Surface Water Hydrology
Project, SWHP, WAPDA, Lahore, Pakistan, 2000.

3. SWHP, 2003-05 Annual report of river and climatologically data of Pakistan,

Vol-I, River discharge, sediment and quality data, Surface Water Hydrology
Project, SWHP, WAPDA, Lahore, Pakistan, 2000.

4. SWHP, Feasibility Study of Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project, WAPDA

5. USBR, 1987, Design of Small Dams, A Water Resources Technical

Publication, 3rd Edition, US Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation

6. Vaibhav Garg and V. Jothiprakash, 2008, Estimation of useful life of a

reservoir using sediment trap efficiency, Journal of Spatial Hydrology, Vol. 8,
No. 2 Fall 2008

7. H. Samadi Boroujeni, M. Fathi Moghadam and M. Shafaei Bejestan, 2009,

Investigation on bulk density of deposited sediments in Dez reservoir, Trends
in Applied Sciences Research 2009, ISSN 1819-3579

8. D. L. Rausch, H. G. Heinemann, Controlling Reservoir Trap Efficiency,

American Society of Agricultural Engineers, St. Joseph, Michigan, ASAE,
Vol. 18, No. 6

9. J. D. Pitt, G. Thompson, 1984, The Impact of Sediment on Reservoir Life,

Challenges in African Hydrology and Water Resources, Proceedings of The
Harare Symposium, July 1984, IAHS Publ. No. 144

69
10. John W. Nicklow, Larry W. Mays, 2000, Multi-Reservoir System
Management for Sedimentation Control, Technical Research Paper

11. F. E. Dendy, 1974, Sediment Trap Efficiency of Small Reservoirs, Technical

Research Paper, ASAE 1974

12. Fazli Ozturk, 1996, Suspended Sediment Yield of Rivers in Turkey, Erosion
and Sediment Yield : Global and Regional Prospective (Proceedings of the
Exeter Symposium, July 1996)

13. W. R. White, 1990, Reservoir sedimentation and flushing, Proceedings of two

Lausanne Symposia, August 1990, IAHS Publication No. 194, 1990

14. A. Taher Shamsi, M. R. M. Tabatabai, Assessment of Reservoir Trap

Efficiency Methods, Technical Research Paper

15. R. K. Sharma, T. K. Sharma, 1990, Text Book of Irrigation Engineering,

Volume-II : Dam Engineering (Including Water Power Engineering)

16. Chih Ted Yang, 1996, Sediment Transport : Theory and Practice

70
 ABBREVIATIONS

AF: Acre Foot

Av: Average
EL: Elevation
PPM: Parts Per Million
WAPDA: Water and Power Development Authority
MAF: Million Acre Foot
SSL: Suspended Sediment Load
BL: Bed Load
SSC: Suspended Sediment Concentration
SWHP: Surface Water Hydrology Project
TSS: Total Suspended Solids
SY: Sediment Yield
TDS: Total Dissolved Solids
SSQ: Sum of Squares

71
ANNEXURES

72
 LIST OF ANNEXURES

Annexure-A Daily Discharge Data For Neelum River At Nausehri For The

Year 2000-2005

Annexure-B Suspended Sediment Concentration Data For Neelum River At

Nausehri For The Year 2000-2005

Annexure-C Table of Physical Properties of Water

Annexure-D Regression Analysis Results For The Year 2000-2005

Annexure-E Layout Plan of Nausehri Dam & Reservoir

Annexure-F Sectional Details of Nausehri Dam

73
 Annexure-D

Linear Regression
Regression Results (Year 2000)
Valid Number of Cases: 20, 0 Omitted
Dependent Variable: Qs

Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic Significance Lower 95% Upper 95%

Q 0.8598 0.1870 4.5983 0.0003 0.4653 1.2543
Pw -0.0771 0.1614 -0.4780 0.6387 -0.4176 0.2633
Vk 69.8576 122.9730 0.5681 0.5774 -189.5928 329.3079

Residual Sum of Squares = 114742.2834

Standard Error = 82.1556
Mean of Y = 158.2000
Standard Deviation of Y = 122.9376
Correlation Coefficient = 0.9243
R-squared = 0.8543
Adjusted R-squared = 0.8286
F(3,17) = 33.2349
Significance of F = 0.0000
Durbin-Watson Statistic = 2.7322
Log of Likelihood = -115.0511
Press Statistic = 155394.8642

ANOVA of Regression
Due To Sum of Squares DoF Mean Square F-Stat Signif
Q 669901.951 1 669901.951 99.251 0.0000
Pw 881.644 1 881.644 0.131 0.7222
Vk 2178.121 1 2178.121 0.323 0.5774
Regression 672961.717 3 224320.572 33.235 0.0000
Error 114742.283 17 6749.546
Total 787704.000 20 39385.200 5.835 0.0003

Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 1.0000 -0.6578 0.5154
Pw -0.6578 1.0000 -0.9770
Vk 0.5154 -0.9770 1.0000

Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 0.0350 -0.0198 11.8498
Pw -0.0198 0.0260 -19.3890
Vk 11.8498 -19.3890 15122.3596

Actual and Fitted Values

Row Actual * Fitted + 31.0000 472.0000
1 98.0000 55.9553 + *
2 34.0000 60.8302 * +
3 42.0000 57.8961 * +
4 41.0000 57.1164 * +
5 284.0000 172.3915 + *
6 128.0000 170.3963 * +
7 472.0000 344.6495 + *
8 253.0000 321.9973 * +
9 274.0000 329.0067 * +
10 198.0000 189.9202 +*
11 131.0000 216.1057 * +

87
 Annexure-D

Row Actual * Fitted + 31.0000 472.0000

12 130.0000 136.2743 *+
13 181.0000 152.9313 + *
14 354.0000 248.5377 + *
15 83.0000 144.0068 * +
16 31.0000 186.8963 * +
17 255.0000 98.5438 + *
18 68.0000 109.3920 * +
19 50.0000 51.8254 *
20 57.0000 59.3200 *+

Residuals
Row Residuals -156.4562 156.4562
1 42.0447 *
2 -26.8302 *
3 -15.8961 *
4 -16.1164 *
5 111.6085 *
6 -42.3963 *
7 127.3505 *
8 -68.9973 *
9 -55.0067 *
10 8.0798 *
11 -85.1057 *
12 -6.2743 *
13 28.0687 *
14 105.4623 *
15 -61.0068 *
16 -155.8963 *
17 156.4562 *
18 -41.3920 *
19 -1.8254 *
20 -2.3200 *

95% Confidence Intervals for Mean and Actual Y Values

lb Actual Y lb Mean of Y Fitted Y ub Mean of Y ub Actual Y
1 -134.1618 -22.1479 55.9553 134.0585 246.0724
2 -129.1003 -16.8176 60.8302 138.4779 250.7606
3 -129.5397 -13.4327 57.8961 129.2250 245.3320
4 -125.4715 -0.2766 57.1164 114.5094 239.7044
5 -5.6775 131.5974 172.3915 213.1857 350.4605
6 -7.3419 131.0711 170.3963 209.7215 348.1345
7 149.4407 254.8604 344.6495 434.4386 539.8583
8 123.6933 225.6640 321.9973 418.3306 520.3014
9 135.8632 243.8011 329.0067 414.2123 522.1502
10 11.2969 146.7707 189.9202 233.0698 368.5435
11 33.4653 158.5460 216.1057 273.6655 398.7462
12 -55.8720 53.3539 136.2743 219.1948 328.4206
13 -34.7068 81.0727 152.9313 224.7898 340.5693
14 66.2808 192.2069 248.5377 304.8685 430.7946
15 -37.2496 91.0022 144.0068 197.0114 325.2633
16 7.6527 141.2467 186.8963 232.5459 366.1400
17 -83.4629 43.0276 98.5438 154.0601 280.5506
18 -69.6336 64.6064 109.3920 154.1777 288.4176
19 -133.2114 -12.9373 51.8254 116.5881 236.8622
20 -133.7880 -25.8052 59.3200 144.4453 252.4281

Case (Diagnostic) Statistics

Fitted Standard Standardis Adjusted Residuals Standard Standardis Studentise
Values Error of ed Fitted Fitted Error of ed d
Fitted Residuals Residuals Residuals
1 55.9553 37.0190 -1.0733 45.2438 42.0447 73.3426 0.5118 0.5733
2 60.8302 36.8031 -1.0221 67.5660 -26.8302 73.4512 -0.3266 -0.3653

88
 Annexure-D

Fitted Standard Standardis Adjusted Residuals Standard Standardis Studentise

Values Error of ed Fitted Fitted Error of ed d
Fitted Residuals Residuals Residuals
3 57.8961 33.8081 -1.0529 61.1368 -15.8961 74.8770 -0.1935 -0.2123
4 57.1164 27.2029 -1.0611 59.1010 -16.1164 77.5213 -0.1962 -0.2079
5 172.3915 19.3354 0.1490 165.8470 111.6085 79.8479 1.3585 1.3978
6 170.3963 18.6392 0.1280 172.6970 -42.3963 80.0133 -0.5160 -0.5299
7 344.6495 42.5578 1.9572 297.9432 127.3505 70.2736 1.5501 1.8122
8 321.9973 45.6596 1.7195 352.8340 -68.9973 68.2990 -0.8398 -1.0102
9 329.0067 40.3853 1.7930 346.5340 -55.0067 71.5442 -0.6695 -0.7688
10 189.9202 20.4518 0.3330 189.3864 8.0798 79.5693 0.0983 0.1015
11 216.1057 27.2819 0.6079 226.6539 -85.1057 77.4935 -1.0359 -1.0982
12 136.2743 39.3022 -0.2302 138.1364 -6.2743 72.1449 -0.0764 -0.0870
13 152.9313 34.0592 -0.0553 147.1060 28.0687 74.7631 0.3417 0.3754
14 248.5377 26.6994 0.9483 236.0839 105.4623 77.6961 1.2837 1.3574
15 144.0068 25.1229 -0.1490 150.3002 -61.0068 78.2201 -0.7426 -0.7799
16 186.8963 21.6368 0.3012 198.5152 -155.8963 79.2553 -1.8976 -1.9670
17 98.5438 26.3133 -0.6262 80.6594 156.4562 77.8277 1.9044 2.0103
18 109.3920 21.2273 -0.5124 112.3530 -41.3920 79.3659 -0.5038 -0.5215
19 51.8254 30.6959 -1.1167 52.1215 -1.8254 76.2057 -0.0222 -0.0240
20 59.3200 40.3473 -1.0380 60.0575 -2.3200 71.5657 -0.0282 -0.0324

Press Studentise Leverage Cook's Mahalanob Welsch Covratio DfFit

(Deleted) d Press Distance is Distance Distance
Residuals Residuals
1 52.7562 0.5616 0.2030 0.0279 4.0607 1.3841 1.4194 10.7114
2 -33.5660 -0.3558 0.2007 0.0112 4.0135 -0.8691 1.4655 -6.7359
3 -19.1368 -0.2062 0.1693 0.0031 3.3869 -0.4453 1.4325 -3.2407
4 -18.1010 -0.2019 0.1096 0.0018 2.1927 -0.3274 1.3369 -1.9845
5 118.1530 1.4414 0.0554 0.0382 1.1078 1.5654 0.8804 6.5445
6 -44.6970 -0.5183 0.0515 0.0051 1.0295 -0.5404 1.2029 -2.3007
7 174.0568 1.9573 0.2683 0.4015 5.3668 6.0404 0.8610 46.7062
8 -99.8340 -1.0109 0.3089 0.1520 6.1776 -3.5434 1.4414 -30.8367
9 -72.5340 -0.7592 0.2416 0.0628 4.8328 -2.1451 1.4223 -17.5273
10 8.6136 0.0985 0.0620 0.0002 1.2394 0.1140 1.2764 0.5338
11 -95.6539 -1.1054 0.1103 0.0498 2.2055 -1.7983 1.0811 -10.5482
12 -8.1364 -0.0844 0.2289 0.0007 4.5771 -0.2282 1.5534 -1.8620
13 33.8940 0.3657 0.1719 0.0098 3.4373 0.7981 1.4127 5.8253
14 117.9161 1.3946 0.1056 0.0725 2.1123 2.2088 0.9506 12.4538
15 -67.3002 -0.7706 0.0935 0.0209 1.8702 -1.1331 1.1862 -6.2933
16 -167.5152 -2.1713 0.0694 0.0961 1.3872 -2.6784 0.5939 -11.6189
17 174.3406 2.2338 0.1026 0.1540 2.0517 3.4750 0.5920 17.8844
18 -44.3530 -0.5101 0.0668 0.0065 1.3352 -0.6155 1.2246 -2.9610
19 -2.1215 -0.0232 0.1396 0.0000 2.7920 -0.0440 1.3939 -0.2962
20 -3.0575 -0.0315 0.2412 0.0001 4.8237 -0.0887 1.5804 -0.7374

Standardise Delta-Beta Q Delta-Beta Delta-Beta Standardise Standardise Standardise

d DfFit Pw Vk d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta
Q Pw Vk
1 0.2835 -0.0118 -0.0199 21.6354 -0.0616 -0.1207 0.1724
2 -0.1783 0.0065 0.0132 -14.0997 0.0338 0.0798 -0.1117
3 -0.0931 0.0051 0.0052 -6.2378 0.0266 0.0315 -0.0493
4 -0.0709 0.0094 -0.0039 1.1720 0.0488 -0.0238 0.0093
5 0.3490 0.0156 -0.0106 12.0462 0.0858 -0.0680 0.1010
6 -0.1207 -0.0017 -0.0035 1.4023 -0.0088 -0.0214 0.0112
7 1.1853 0.1831 -0.0777 46.7084 1.0576 -0.5202 0.4102
8 -0.6758 -0.1118 0.0773 -54.3915 -0.5984 0.4792 -0.4426
9 -0.4286 -0.0720 0.0336 -21.2168 -0.3805 0.2057 -0.1704
10 0.0253 0.0007 0.0013 -0.8933 0.0038 0.0079 -0.0070
11 -0.3892 -0.0094 -0.0333 26.4959 -0.0506 -0.2076 0.2169
12 -0.0460 0.0041 -0.0070 5.1536 0.0213 -0.0423 0.0407
13 0.1666 -0.0120 0.0240 -17.6692 -0.0627 0.1450 -0.1400
14 0.4792 0.0430 0.0114 -11.6235 0.2363 0.0723 -0.0971
15 -0.2475 0.0178 -0.0305 20.9993 0.0943 -0.1870 0.1687
16 -0.5928 -0.0049 -0.0396 28.1550 -0.0288 -0.2709 0.2527
17 0.7552 -0.0813 0.0812 -50.6098 -0.4831 0.5589 -0.4573
18 -0.1364 0.0131 -0.0096 4.4284 0.0683 -0.0584 0.0352
19 -0.0094 0.0014 -0.0010 0.5802 0.0074 -0.0062 0.0046
20 -0.0177 0.0004 0.0015 -1.5434 0.0023 0.0092 -0.0122

89
 Annexure-D

P o
l t o fA c tu a l and F itted V a u
l es
600

500

400

D ep end en tV a r iab le
300

200

100

-100

-200
0 4 8 12 16 20
R ow N um b e rs

Ac u
t a lY F ite
t dY bl A c u
t a lY bl M ean o fY ubM ean o fY ub A c u
t a lY

P o
l t o fR es d
i u a ls
200

100
i u a ls

0
R es d

-100

-200
0 4 8 12 16 20
R ow N um b e rs

90
 Annexure-D

Nom
r a lP o
l t o fR es d
i u a ls
99 9
.9

99 9
.

99

90
80
P rob ab i l ity

70
60
50
40
30
20
10

01
.

00
.1
-160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
R es d
i ua s
l

91
 Annexure-D

Linear Regression
Regression Results (Year 2001)
Valid Number of Cases: 18, 0 Omitted
Dependent Variable: Qs

Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic Significance Lower 95% Upper 95%

Q 0.0862 0.2994 0.2878 0.7775 -0.5520 0.7243
Pw 0.3195 0.1660 1.9242 0.0735 -0.0344 0.6733
Vk -179.3615 121.0784 -1.4814 0.1592 -437.4341 78.7110

Residual Sum of Squares = 104619.9208

Standard Error = 83.5144
Mean of Y = 131.0556
Standard Deviation of Y = 90.4378
Correlation Coefficient = 0.8755
R-squared = 0.7666
Adjusted R-squared = 0.7199
F(3,15) = 16.4205
Significance of F = 0.0001
Durbin-Watson Statistic = 1.8512
Log of Likelihood = -103.6912
Press Statistic = 149966.6076

ANOVA of Regression
Due To Sum of Squares DoF Mean Square F-Stat Signif
Q 295439.999 1 295439.999 42.359 0.0000
Pw 32837.558 1 32837.558 4.708 0.0465
Vk 15305.522 1 15305.522 2.194 0.1592
Regression 343583.079 3 114527.693 16.421 0.0001
Error 104619.921 15 6974.661
Total 448203.000 18 24900.167 3.570 0.0082

Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 1.0000 -0.7802 0.6558
Pw -0.7802 1.0000 -0.9753
Vk 0.6558 -0.9753 1.0000

Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 0.0896 -0.0388 23.7722
Pw -0.0388 0.0276 -19.6044
Vk 23.7722 -19.6044 14659.9884

Actual and Fitted Values

Row Actual * Fitted + 25.0000 334.0000
1 67.0000 57.3096 + *
2 124.0000 57.5552 + *
3 56.0000 109.5332 * +
4 184.0000 118.2596 + *
5 103.0000 116.3387 * +
6 32.0000 173.2938 * +
7 140.0000 181.9314 * +
8 334.0000 189.4856 + *
9 278.0000 167.3470 + *
10 98.0000 168.6609 * +
11 216.0000 156.2852 + *

92
 Annexure-D

Row Actual * Fitted + 25.0000 334.0000

12 274.0000 165.1890 + *
13 78.0000 144.6717 * +
14 105.0000 164.7431 * +
15 113.0000 144.5669 * +
16 25.0000 113.0403 * +
17 47.0000 65.4243 * +
18 85.0000 65.1288 + *

Residuals
Row Residuals -144.5144 144.5144
1 9.6904 *
2 66.4448 *
3 -53.5332 *
4 65.7404 *
5 -13.3387 *
6 -141.2938 *
7 -41.9314 *
8 144.5144 *
9 110.6530 *
10 -70.6609 *
11 59.7148 *
12 108.8110 *
13 -66.6717 *
14 -59.7431 *
15 -31.5669 *
16 -88.0403 *
17 -18.4243 *
18 19.8712 *

95% Confidence Intervals for Mean and Actual Y Values

lb Actual Y lb Mean of Y Fitted Y ub Mean of Y ub Actual Y
1 -138.7737 -24.9232 57.3096 139.5424 253.3929
2 -138.4871 -24.5797 57.5552 139.6900 253.5974
3 -75.5073 59.0007 109.5332 160.0656 294.5736
4 -70.4894 55.4922 118.2596 181.0270 307.0085
5 -83.8701 24.7028 116.3387 207.9745 316.5475
6 -24.5788 86.8812 173.2938 259.7065 371.1665
7 -12.5744 103.5345 181.9314 260.3283 376.4372
8 -1.8353 119.3623 189.4856 259.6089 380.8065
9 -19.8990 109.2553 167.3470 225.4387 354.5930
10 -20.1018 105.8522 168.6609 231.4697 357.4237
11 -29.3706 103.5436 156.2852 209.0268 341.9411
12 -24.4430 99.8142 165.1890 230.5639 354.8210
13 -40.4698 93.7706 144.6717 195.5728 329.8131
14 -38.0653 67.5586 164.7431 261.9275 367.5515
15 -50.5342 64.7043 144.5669 224.4295 339.6680
16 -75.5475 50.7591 113.0403 175.3215 301.6281
17 -127.9610 -10.1499 65.4243 140.9985 258.8096
18 -128.3580 -10.7047 65.1288 140.9622 258.6156

Case (Diagnostic) Statistics

Fitted Standard Standardis Adjusted Residuals Standard Standardis Studentise
Values Error of ed Fitted Fitted Error of ed d
Fitted Residuals Residuals Residuals
1 57.3096 38.5807 -1.6371 54.6805 9.6904 74.0688 0.1160 0.1308
2 57.5552 38.5347 -1.6316 39.5824 66.4448 74.0928 0.7956 0.8968
3 109.5332 23.7080 -0.4776 114.2254 -53.5332 80.0787 -0.6410 -0.6685
4 118.2596 29.4482 -0.2838 108.9251 65.7404 78.1503 0.7872 0.8412
5 116.3387 42.9923 -0.3265 121.1480 -13.3387 71.5984 -0.1597 -0.1863
6 173.2938 40.5417 0.9381 216.8568 -141.2938 73.0139 -1.6918 -1.9352
7 181.9314 36.7810 1.1299 192.0219 -41.9314 74.9788 -0.5021 -0.5592
8 189.4856 32.8993 1.2976 162.9395 144.5144 76.7613 1.7304 1.8826

93
 Annexure-D

Fitted Standard Standardis Adjusted Residuals Standard Standardis Studentise

Values Error of ed Fitted Fitted Error of ed d
Fitted Residuals Residuals Residuals
9 167.3470 27.2546 0.8061 154.1576 110.6530 78.9421 1.3250 1.4017
10 168.6609 29.4676 0.8352 178.7092 -70.6609 78.1429 -0.8461 -0.9043
11 156.2852 24.7445 0.5605 150.5385 59.7148 79.7645 0.7150 0.7486
12 165.1890 30.6715 0.7582 148.2244 108.8110 77.6783 1.3029 1.4008
13 144.6717 23.8810 0.3026 150.6087 -66.6717 80.0272 -0.7983 -0.8331
14 164.7431 45.5955 0.7483 190.1127 -59.7431 69.9694 -0.7154 -0.8538
15 144.5669 37.4687 0.3003 152.5222 -31.5669 74.6375 -0.3780 -0.4229
16 113.0403 29.2201 -0.3997 125.3213 -88.0403 78.2358 -1.0542 -1.1253
17 65.4243 35.4567 -1.4569 69.4755 -18.4243 75.6140 -0.2206 -0.2437
18 65.1288 35.5783 -1.4635 60.7227 19.8712 75.5569 0.2379 0.2630

Press Studentise Leverage Cook's Mahalanob Welsch Covratio DfFit

(Deleted) d Press Distance is Distance Distance
Residuals Residuals
1 12.3195 0.1265 0.2134 0.0015 3.8414 0.3062 1.5583 2.6291
2 84.4176 0.8906 0.2129 0.0725 3.8323 2.1526 1.3245 17.9727
3 -58.2254 -0.6557 0.0806 0.0131 1.4506 -0.8347 1.2217 -4.6922
4 75.0749 0.8326 0.1243 0.0335 2.2380 1.3823 1.2150 9.3345
5 -18.1480 -0.1802 0.2650 0.0042 4.7701 -0.5204 1.6618 -4.8094
6 -184.8568 -2.1583 0.2357 0.3849 4.2418 -5.6518 0.6798 -43.5629
7 -52.0219 -0.5460 0.1940 0.0251 3.4914 -1.2301 1.4325 -10.0904
8 171.0605 2.0812 0.1552 0.2170 2.7933 4.0014 0.6485 26.5461
9 123.8424 1.4526 0.1065 0.0781 1.9170 2.1876 0.9034 13.1894
10 -80.7092 -0.8984 0.1245 0.0388 2.2410 -1.4929 1.1874 -10.0482
11 65.4615 0.7372 0.0878 0.0180 1.5802 0.9872 1.2028 5.7467
12 125.7756 1.4516 0.1349 0.1020 2.4278 2.5407 0.9336 16.9646
13 -72.6087 -0.8242 0.0818 0.0206 1.4718 -1.0582 1.1620 -5.9370
14 -85.1127 -0.8457 0.2981 0.1032 5.3653 -2.7121 1.5090 -25.3697
15 -39.5222 -0.4111 0.2013 0.0150 3.6231 -0.9520 1.4855 -7.9553
16 -100.3213 -1.1362 0.1224 0.0589 2.2035 -1.8677 1.0757 -12.2810
17 -22.4755 -0.2359 0.1802 0.0044 3.2445 -0.5037 1.4827 -4.0512
18 24.2773 0.2547 0.1815 0.0051 3.2668 0.5465 1.4820 4.4060

Standardise Delta-Beta Q Delta-Beta Delta-Beta Standardise Standardise Standardise

d DfFit Pw Vk d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta
Q Pw Vk
1 0.0659 -0.0013 -0.0047 4.9884 -0.0043 -0.0273 0.0398
2 0.4632 -0.0060 -0.0335 35.0019 -0.0198 -0.2005 0.2871
3 -0.1941 0.0253 -0.0070 0.2744 0.0829 -0.0414 0.0022
4 0.3137 0.0651 -0.0332 25.5620 0.2151 -0.1981 0.2089
5 -0.1082 -0.0284 0.0143 -10.2521 -0.0918 0.0834 -0.0819
6 -1.1984 -0.2550 0.0595 -31.3150 -0.9497 0.4000 -0.2885
7 -0.2678 -0.0531 0.0049 -0.4374 -0.1732 0.0286 -0.0035
8 0.8920 0.0351 0.0592 -48.9005 0.1295 0.3944 -0.4465
9 0.5015 0.0609 0.0076 -8.1543 0.2109 0.0477 -0.0698
10 -0.3388 -0.0555 0.0019 1.1191 -0.1843 0.0112 0.0092
11 0.2287 -0.0232 0.0257 -16.9017 -0.0763 0.1522 -0.1375
12 0.5732 -0.0846 0.0759 -51.3987 -0.2928 0.4737 -0.4399
13 -0.2459 0.0348 -0.0272 16.4922 0.1149 -0.1620 0.1347
14 -0.5511 0.1313 -0.0864 57.1555 0.4344 -0.5158 0.4676
15 -0.2064 0.0513 -0.0302 18.8329 0.1666 -0.1770 0.1512
16 -0.4243 0.0899 -0.0365 16.6926 0.3033 -0.2221 0.1392
17 -0.1106 0.0036 0.0068 -7.6683 0.0115 0.0397 -0.0613
18 0.1199 -0.0049 -0.0069 7.9992 -0.0159 -0.0402 0.0640

94
 Annexure-D

P o
l t o fA c tu a l and F itted V a u
l es
400

300

D ep end en tV a r iab le
200

100

-100

-200
0 4 8 12 16 20
R ow N um b e rs

Ac u
t a lY F ite
t dY bl A c u
t a lY bl M ean o fY ubM ean o fY ub A c u
t a lY

P o
l t o fR es d
i u a ls

100
i u a ls

0
R es d

-100

0 4 8 12 16 20
R ow N um b e rs

95
 Annexure-D

Nom
r a lP o
l t o fR es d
i u a ls
99 9
.9

99 9
.

99

90
80
P rob ab i l ity

70
60
50
40
30
20
10

01
.

00
.1
-160 -140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
R es d
i ua s
l

96
 Annexure-D

Linear Regression
Regression Results (Year 2002)
Valid Number of Cases: 13, 0 Omitted
Dependent Variable: Qs

Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic Significance Lower 95% Upper 95%

Q 0.5924 0.2765 2.1424 0.0578 -0.0237 1.2085
Pw 0.0007 0.3381 0.0020 0.9984 -0.7525 0.7539
Vk 55.7687 241.6414 0.2308 0.8221 -482.6418 594.1792

Residual Sum of Squares = 112804.5537

Standard Error = 106.2095
Mean of Y = 189.3846
Standard Deviation of Y = 139.1884
Correlation Coefficient = 0.9157
R-squared = 0.8386
Adjusted R-squared = 0.7901
F(3,10) = 17.3144
Significance of F = 0.0003
Durbin-Watson Statistic = 2.0457
Log of Likelihood = -77.5966
Press Statistic = 172743.9028

ANOVA of Regression
Due To Sum of Squares DoF Mean Square F-Stat Signif
Q 551758.594 1 551758.594 48.913 0.0000
Pw 33582.004 1 33582.004 2.977 0.1152
Vk 600.848 1 600.848 0.053 0.8221
Regression 585941.446 3 195313.815 17.314 0.0003
Error 112804.554 10 11280.455
Total 698746.000 13 53749.692 4.765 0.0091

Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 1.0000 -0.8525 0.7987
Pw -0.8525 1.0000 -0.9910
Vk 0.7987 -0.9910 1.0000

Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 0.0765 -0.0797 53.3646
Pw -0.0797 0.1143 -80.9543
Vk 53.3646 -80.9543 58390.5536

Actual and Fitted Values

Row Actual * Fitted + 27.0000 407.4925
1 35.0000 100.5352 * +
2 55.0000 115.8268 * +
3 78.0000 101.4854 * +
4 379.0000 112.2909 + *
5 173.0000 180.0607 *+
6 376.0000 267.6283 + *
7 211.0000 276.2385 * +
8 355.0000 407.4925 * +
9 351.0000 317.7896 + *
10 175.0000 195.1549 * +
11 218.0000 180.5326 + *

97
 Annexure-D

Row Actual * Fitted + 27.0000 407.4925

12 29.0000 105.7054 * +
13 27.0000 101.3102 * +

Residuals
Row Residuals -266.7091 266.7091
1 -65.5352 *
2 -60.8268 *
3 -23.4854 *
4 266.7091 *
5 -7.0607 *
6 108.3717 *
7 -65.2385 *
8 -52.4925 *
9 33.2104 *
10 -20.1549 *
11 37.4674 *
12 -76.7054 *
13 -74.3102 *

95% Confidence Intervals for Mean and Actual Y Values

lb Actual Y lb Mean of Y Fitted Y ub Mean of Y ub Actual Y
1 -156.8269 -0.6194 100.5352 201.6897 357.8972
2 -147.2753 0.8498 115.8268 230.8038 378.9288
3 -160.4980 -10.9081 101.4854 213.8790 363.4688
4 -138.9998 27.7685 112.2909 196.8133 363.5816
5 -74.5155 86.2201 180.0607 273.9013 434.6369
6 7.7569 160.2497 267.6283 375.0068 527.4996
7 23.1982 186.6481 276.2385 365.8290 529.2789
8 115.9119 237.1509 407.4925 577.8342 699.0732
9 40.9480 174.1292 317.7896 461.4501 594.6313
10 -53.2736 119.5657 195.1549 270.7441 443.5834
11 -76.3367 80.6384 180.5326 280.4268 437.4019
12 -173.7831 -42.9918 105.7054 254.4026 385.1940
13 -153.5681 6.6532 101.3102 195.9672 356.1884

Case (Diagnostic) Statistics

Fitted Standard Standardis Adjusted Residuals Standard Standardis Studentise
Values Error of ed Fitted Fitted Error of ed d
Fitted Residuals Residuals Residuals
1 100.5352 45.3987 -0.8898 115.1858 -65.5352 96.0178 -0.6170 -0.6825
2 115.8268 51.6023 -0.7367 134.6218 -60.8268 92.8314 -0.5727 -0.6552
3 101.4854 50.4428 -0.8803 108.3259 -23.4854 93.4665 -0.2211 -0.2513
4 112.2909 37.9341 -0.7721 73.2934 266.7091 99.2041 2.5112 2.6885
5 180.0607 42.1161 -0.0934 181.3781 -7.0607 97.5022 -0.0665 -0.0724
6 267.6283 48.1920 0.7835 239.5315 108.3717 94.6466 1.0204 1.1450
7 276.2385 40.2086 0.8697 287.1529 -65.2385 98.3042 -0.6142 -0.6636
8 407.4925 76.4502 2.1842 463.9328 -52.4925 73.7280 -0.4942 -0.7120
9 317.7896 64.4755 1.2858 298.4085 33.2104 84.4000 0.3127 0.3935
10 195.1549 33.9248 0.0577 197.4448 -20.1549 100.6457 -0.1898 -0.2003
11 180.5326 44.8330 -0.0887 172.4090 37.4674 96.2832 0.3528 0.3891
12 105.7054 66.7361 -0.8380 155.7472 -76.7054 82.6242 -0.7222 -0.9284
13 101.3102 42.4825 -0.8820 115.4635 -74.3102 97.3432 -0.6997 -0.7634

Press Studentise Leverage Cook's Mahalanob Welsch Covratio DfFit

(Deleted) d Press Distance is Distance Distance
Residuals Residuals
1 -80.1858 -0.6631 0.1827 0.0347 2.3752 -1.2014 1.4546 -14.6507
2 -79.6218 -0.6354 0.2361 0.0442 3.0687 -1.3999 1.5741 -18.7950
3 -30.3259 -0.2391 0.2256 0.0061 2.9323 -0.5080 1.7379 -6.8405
4 305.7066 4.8443 0.1276 0.3523 1.6583 6.8700 0.0335 38.9975
5 -8.3781 -0.0687 0.1572 0.0003 2.0442 -0.1120 1.6251 -1.3174

98
 Annexure-D

Press Studentise Leverage Cook's Mahalanob Welsch Covratio DfFit

(Deleted) d Press Distance is Distance Distance
Residuals Residuals
6 136.4685 1.1653 0.2059 0.1133 2.6765 2.3066 1.1332 28.0968
7 -76.1529 -0.6439 0.1433 0.0246 1.8632 -0.9857 1.3989 -10.9144
8 -108.9328 -0.6932 0.5181 0.1817 6.7356 -3.5871 2.4353 -56.4403
9 52.5915 0.3762 0.3685 0.0301 4.7908 1.2529 2.0729 19.3811
10 -22.4448 -0.1904 0.1020 0.0015 1.3263 -0.2346 1.5093 -2.2899
11 45.5910 0.3720 0.1782 0.0109 2.3164 0.6619 1.5945 8.1236
12 -126.7472 -0.9213 0.3948 0.1874 5.1326 -3.3137 1.7296 -50.0418
13 -88.4635 -0.7463 0.1600 0.0370 2.0799 -1.2310 1.3638 -14.1533

Standardise Delta-Beta Q Delta-Beta Delta-Beta Standardise Standardise Standardise

d DfFit Pw Vk d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta
Q Pw Vk
1 -0.3135 0.0038 0.0325 -32.9683 0.0134 0.0935 -0.1326
2 -0.3532 -0.0238 0.0685 -58.2233 -0.0834 0.1966 -0.2337
3 -0.1291 -0.0041 0.0209 -18.7025 -0.0140 0.0589 -0.0737
4 1.8524 -0.1346 0.0896 -31.9570 -0.8770 0.4774 -0.2383
5 -0.0297 -0.0042 0.0066 -5.3232 -0.0146 0.0185 -0.0209
6 0.5934 0.1275 -0.1253 91.4059 0.4692 -0.3771 0.3850
7 -0.2634 -0.0240 -0.0093 6.9778 -0.0842 -0.0266 0.0280
8 -0.7188 -0.1623 0.1004 -62.9284 -0.5714 0.2893 -0.2536
9 0.2874 -0.0069 0.0577 -43.5726 -0.0239 0.1631 -0.1724
10 -0.0642 0.0063 -0.0126 7.9640 0.0216 -0.0353 0.0313
11 0.1732 -0.0304 0.0493 -33.0167 -0.1050 0.1395 -0.1306
12 -0.7442 0.1791 -0.2282 151.5226 0.6428 -0.6699 0.6223
13 -0.3257 0.0619 -0.0564 30.7525 0.2190 -0.1632 0.1244

P o
l t o fA c tu a l and F itted V a u
l es
700

600

500
D ep end en tV a r iab le

400

300

200

100

-100

-200
0 4 8 12
R ow N um b e rs

Ac u
t a lY F ite
t dY bl A c u
t a lY bl M ean o fY ubM ean o fY ub A c u
t a lY

99
 Annexure-D

P o
l t o fR es d
i u a ls
300

200

i u a ls

100
R es d

-100
0 4 8 12
R ow N um b e rs

Nom
r a lP o
l t o fR es d
i u a ls
99 9
.9

99 9
.

99

90
80
P rob ab i l ity

70
60
50
40
30
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01
.

00
.1
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
R es d
i ua s
l

100
 Annexure-D

Linear Regression
Regression Results (Year 2003)
Valid Number of Cases: 12, 0 Omitted
Dependent Variable: Qs

Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic Significance Lower 95% Upper 95%

Q 0.3512 0.1843 1.9050 0.0892 -0.0658 0.7682
Pw 0.7016 0.6604 1.0624 0.3157 -0.7923 2.1954
Vk -454.4557 495.6143 -0.9170 0.3831 -1575.6131 666.7018

Residual Sum of Squares = 201217.6429

Standard Error = 149.5243
Mean of Y = 186.9167
Standard Deviation of Y = 174.2738
Correlation Coefficient = 0.8561
R-squared = 0.7329
Adjusted R-squared = 0.6439
F(3,9) = 8.2317
Significance of F = 0.0060
Durbin-Watson Statistic = 2.2652
Log of Likelihood = -75.6168
Press Statistic = 301877.9189

ANOVA of Regression
Due To Sum of Squares DoF Mean Square F-Stat Signif
Q 469619.808 1 469619.808 21.005 0.0013
Pw 63703.235 1 63703.235 2.849 0.1257
Vk 18798.315 1 18798.315 0.841 0.3831
Regression 552121.357 3 184040.452 8.232 0.0060
Error 201217.643 9 22357.516
Total 753339.000 12 62778.250 2.808 0.0645

Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 1.0000 -0.3402 0.2845
Pw -0.3402 1.0000 -0.9961
Vk 0.2845 -0.9961 1.0000

Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 0.0340 -0.0414 25.9900
Pw -0.0414 0.4361 -326.0089
Vk 25.9900 -326.0089 245633.5317

Actual and Fitted Values

Row Actual * Fitted + 17.0000 495.0000
1 77.0000 61.1877 + *
2 88.0000 41.2260 + *
3 440.0000 215.1890 + *
4 454.0000 445.8173 +*
5 166.0000 291.7498 * +
6 133.0000 204.3033 * +
7 189.0000 205.3243 * +
8 101.0000 204.3409 * +
9 495.0000 197.8790 + *
10 38.0000 167.1099 * +
11 45.0000 135.6934 * +

101
 Annexure-D

Row Actual * Fitted + 17.0000 495.0000

12 17.0000 73.1633 * +

Residuals
Row Residuals -297.1210 297.1210
1 15.8123 *
2 46.7740 *
3 224.8110 *
4 8.1827 *
5 -125.7498 *
6 -71.3033 *
7 -16.3243 *
8 -103.3409 *
9 297.1210 *
10 -129.1099 *
11 -90.6934 *
12 -56.1633 *

95% Confidence Intervals for Mean and Actual Y Values

lb Actual Y lb Mean of Y Fitted Y ub Mean of Y ub Actual Y
1 -319.9356 -114.4358 61.1877 236.8112 442.3110
2 -357.8527 -170.5580 41.2260 253.0099 440.3047
3 -138.7024 111.1325 215.1890 319.2454 569.0803
4 -6.1128 146.1016 445.8173 745.5330 897.7475
5 -75.2821 149.2678 291.7498 434.2319 658.7818
6 -149.2911 101.2614 204.3033 307.3452 557.8977
7 -166.4812 50.9612 205.3243 359.6874 577.1298
8 -167.6562 49.5167 204.3409 359.1652 576.3381
9 -175.4664 39.8427 197.8790 355.9154 571.2245
10 -199.7901 24.9684 167.1099 309.2514 534.0098
11 -221.2169 21.7917 135.6934 249.5951 492.6037
12 -306.8650 -100.0711 73.1633 246.3976 453.1916

Case (Diagnostic) Statistics

Fitted Standard Standardis Adjusted Residuals Standard Standardis Studentise
Values Error of ed Fitted Fitted Error of ed d
Fitted Residuals Residuals Residuals
1 61.1877 77.6354 -1.1440 55.3516 15.8123 127.7899 0.1058 0.1237
2 41.2260 93.6204 -1.3256 11.0655 46.7740 116.5879 0.3128 0.4012
3 215.1890 45.9988 0.2573 191.6891 224.8110 142.2731 1.5035 1.5801
4 445.8173 132.4911 2.3557 415.9153 8.1827 69.3082 0.0547 0.1181
5 291.7498 62.9850 0.9539 318.8762 -125.7498 135.6112 -0.8410 -0.9273
6 204.3033 45.5503 0.1582 211.5973 -71.3033 142.4173 -0.4769 -0.5007
7 205.3243 68.2371 0.1675 209.6184 -16.3243 133.0459 -0.1092 -0.1227
8 204.3409 68.4410 0.1585 231.7306 -103.3409 132.9411 -0.6911 -0.7773
9 197.8790 69.8609 0.0998 114.9063 297.1210 132.2005 1.9871 2.2475
10 167.1099 62.8345 -0.1802 194.7995 -129.1099 135.6810 -0.8635 -0.9516
11 135.6934 50.3509 -0.4661 147.2928 -90.6934 140.7917 -0.6065 -0.6442
12 73.1633 76.5793 -1.0350 93.1330 -56.1633 128.4256 -0.3756 -0.4373

Press Studentise Leverage Cook's Mahalanob Welsch Covratio DfFit

(Deleted) d Press Distance is Distance Distance
Residuals Residuals
1 21.6484 0.1168 0.2696 0.0019 3.2350 0.2753 1.9394 5.8361
2 76.9345 0.3817 0.3920 0.0346 4.7043 1.3037 2.2185 30.1605
3 248.3109 1.7526 0.0946 0.0870 1.1357 1.9751 0.5933 23.4998
4 38.0847 0.1114 0.7851 0.0170 9.4217 1.5237 6.5962 29.9020
5 -152.8762 -0.9193 0.1774 0.0618 2.1293 -1.5613 1.2807 -27.1263
6 -78.5973 -0.4787 0.0928 0.0085 1.1136 -0.5332 1.4420 -7.2940
7 -20.6184 -0.1158 0.2083 0.0013 2.4992 -0.2213 1.7894 -4.2941
8 -130.7306 -0.7588 0.2095 0.0534 2.5141 -1.4573 1.4622 -27.3896
9 380.0937 3.1990 0.2183 0.4702 2.6195 6.3415 0.1538 82.9727

102
 Annexure-D

Press Studentise Leverage Cook's Mahalanob Welsch Covratio DfFit

(Deleted) d Press Distance is Distance Distance
Residuals Residuals
10 -156.7995 -0.9460 0.1766 0.0647 2.1191 -1.6012 1.2580 -27.6896
11 -102.2928 -0.6218 0.1134 0.0177 1.3607 -0.7833 1.3939 -11.5994
12 -76.1330 -0.4168 0.2623 0.0227 3.1476 -0.9596 1.8096 -19.9697

Standardise Delta-Beta Q Delta-Beta Delta-Beta Standardise Standardise Standardise

d DfFit Pw Vk d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta
Q Pw Vk
1 0.0709 -0.0029 -0.0322 26.5498 -0.0147 -0.0460 0.0505
2 0.3065 -0.0068 -0.1609 129.5008 -0.0350 -0.2318 0.2486
3 0.5666 0.0324 -0.0275 31.4186 0.1951 -0.0461 0.0703
4 0.2129 0.0391 -0.0293 18.2586 0.2000 -0.0419 0.0348
5 -0.4270 -0.0549 -0.0067 4.6714 -0.2953 -0.0100 0.0093
6 -0.1531 0.0015 -0.0397 25.1521 0.0079 -0.0575 0.0485
7 -0.0594 0.0045 -0.0333 23.4566 0.0233 -0.0476 0.0447
8 -0.3906 0.0294 -0.2119 149.1515 0.1555 -0.3132 0.2938
9 1.6905 -0.0960 0.6289 -441.7816 -0.7415 1.3556 -1.2688
10 -0.4381 0.0445 -0.1978 134.1147 0.2398 -0.2978 0.2690
11 -0.2224 0.0218 -0.0316 13.9740 0.1143 -0.0462 0.0272
12 -0.2485 0.0062 0.1180 -96.3881 0.0318 0.1702 -0.1853

P o
l t o fA c tu a l and F itted V a u
l es

800
D ep end en tV a r iab le

400

-400
0 4 8 12
R ow N um b e rs

Ac u
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 Annexure-D

P o
l t o fR es d
i u a ls
300

200

100
i u a ls
R es d

-100

-200
0 4 8 12
R ow N um b e rs

Nom
r a lP o
l t o fR es d
i u a ls
99 9
.9

99 9
.

99

90
80
P rob ab i l ity

70
60
50
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01
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-200 -100 0 100 200 300
R es d
i ua s
l

104
 Annexure-D

Linear Regression
Regression Results (Year 2004)
Valid Number of Cases: 11, 0 Omitted
Dependent Variable: Qs

Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic Significance Lower 95% Upper 95%

Q 0.3606 0.1450 2.4878 0.0377 0.0263 0.6949
Pw 0.2465 0.1780 1.3853 0.2034 -0.1639 0.6569
Vk -140.1481 128.1502 -1.0936 0.3060 -435.6630 155.3668

Residual Sum of Squares = 29805.6096

Standard Error = 61.0385
Mean of Y = 147.7273
Standard Deviation of Y = 94.4501
Correlation Coefficient = 0.9537
R-squared = 0.9095
Adjusted R-squared = 0.8755
F(3,8) = 26.7922
Significance of F = 0.0002
Durbin-Watson Statistic = 2.4523
Log of Likelihood = -59.3349
Press Statistic = 51494.3854

ANOVA of Regression
Due To Sum of Squares DoF Mean Square F-Stat Signif
Q 282931.159 1 282931.159 75.940 0.0000
Pw 12072.247 1 12072.247 3.240 0.1095
Vk 4455.985 1 4455.985 1.196 0.3060
Regression 299459.390 3 99819.797 26.792 0.0002
Error 29805.610 8 3725.701
Total 329265.000 11 29933.182 8.034 0.0033

Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 1.0000 -0.6844 0.5823
Pw -0.6844 1.0000 -0.9853
Vk 0.5823 -0.9853 1.0000

Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 0.0210 -0.0177 10.8176
Pw -0.0177 0.0317 -22.4693
Vk 10.8176 -22.4693 16422.4779

Actual and Fitted Values

Row Actual * Fitted + 26.0000 276.6997
1 41.0000 73.8730 * +
2 147.0000 80.4112 + *
3 225.0000 168.4488 + *
4 214.0000 263.7948 * +
5 262.0000 276.6997 * +
6 262.0000 197.0384 + *
7 203.0000 190.7569 + *
8 56.0000 133.1515 * +
9 163.0000 99.9645 + *
10 26.0000 79.1101 * +
11 26.0000 61.7889 * +

105
 Annexure-D

Residuals
Row Residuals -77.1515 77.1515
1 -32.8730 *
2 66.5888 *
3 56.5512 *
4 -49.7948 *
5 -14.6997 *
6 64.9616 *
7 12.2431 *
8 -77.1515 *
9 63.0355 *
10 -53.1101 *
11 -35.7889 *

95% Confidence Intervals for Mean and Actual Y Values

lb Actual Y lb Mean of Y Fitted Y ub Mean of Y ub Actual Y
1 -81.1560 8.8961 73.8730 138.8500 228.9021
2 -74.4469 15.8432 80.4112 144.9791 235.2692
3 19.8578 120.8329 168.4488 216.0647 317.0398
4 102.0752 184.1630 263.7948 343.4266 425.5144
5 97.1753 165.2680 276.6997 388.1313 456.2240
6 44.1342 137.3081 197.0384 256.7687 349.9426
7 22.8931 99.2895 190.7569 282.2243 358.6208
8 -28.5983 53.4583 133.1515 212.8446 294.9013
9 -50.8212 45.8875 99.9645 154.0415 250.7501
10 -73.6376 19.7817 79.1101 138.4386 231.8578
11 -96.6480 -10.9453 61.7889 134.5230 220.2258

Case (Diagnostic) Statistics

Fitted Standard Standardis Adjusted Residuals Standard Standardis Studentise
Values Error of ed Fitted Fitted Error of ed d
Fitted Residuals Residuals Residuals
1 73.8730 28.1773 -0.9584 82.7756 -32.8730 54.1456 -0.5386 -0.6071
2 80.4112 27.9999 -0.8735 62.6645 66.5888 54.2375 1.0909 1.2277
3 168.4488 20.6487 0.2688 161.1408 56.5512 57.4398 0.9265 0.9845
4 263.7948 34.5324 1.5060 287.2352 -49.7948 50.3311 -0.8158 -0.9893
5 276.6997 48.3224 1.6735 301.3820 -14.6997 37.2914 -0.2408 -0.3942
6 197.0384 25.9021 0.6398 182.7710 64.9616 55.2701 1.0643 1.1753
7 190.7569 39.6649 0.5583 181.8078 12.2431 46.3939 0.2006 0.2639
8 133.1515 34.5590 -0.1892 169.5521 -77.1515 50.3128 -1.2640 -1.5334
9 99.9645 23.4505 -0.6198 89.0490 63.0355 56.3540 1.0327 1.1186
10 79.1101 25.7278 -0.8904 90.5844 -53.1101 55.3514 -0.8701 -0.9595
11 61.7889 31.5412 -1.1152 74.8267 -35.7889 52.2576 -0.5863 -0.6849

Press Studentise Leverage Cook's Mahalanob Welsch Covratio DfFit

(Deleted) d Press Distance is Distance Distance
Residuals Residuals
1 -41.7756 -0.5815 0.2131 0.0333 2.3441 -1.0787 1.6466 -8.9025
2 84.3355 1.2748 0.2104 0.1339 2.3147 2.3421 1.0106 17.7467
3 63.8592 0.9824 0.1144 0.0418 1.2588 1.1867 1.1442 7.3080
4 -73.2352 -0.9879 0.3201 0.1536 3.5208 -2.5993 1.4841 -23.4404
5 -39.3820 -0.3724 0.6267 0.0870 6.8942 -2.4975 3.7706 -24.6824
6 79.2290 1.2087 0.1801 0.1011 1.9809 1.9783 1.0309 14.2674
7 21.1922 0.2479 0.4223 0.0170 4.6451 0.8819 2.5169 8.9491
8 -113.5521 -1.7070 0.3206 0.3698 3.5262 -4.4984 0.7733 -36.4007
9 73.9510 1.1392 0.1476 0.0722 1.6236 1.6237 1.0513 10.9154
10 -64.5844 -0.9541 0.1777 0.0663 1.9543 -1.5465 1.2579 -11.4743
11 -48.8267 -0.6603 0.2670 0.0570 2.9373 -1.4720 1.6989 -13.0378

106
 Annexure-D

Standardise Delta-Beta Q Delta-Beta Delta-Beta Standardise Standardise Standardise

d DfFit Pw Vk d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta
Q Pw Vk
1 -0.3026 0.0052 0.0222 -21.9434 0.0345 0.1194 -0.1640
2 0.6581 -0.0019 -0.0520 48.7383 -0.0137 -0.3035 0.3949
3 0.3531 0.0231 -0.0154 13.3314 0.1593 -0.0862 0.1038
4 -0.6778 -0.0581 -0.0107 12.9313 -0.4004 -0.0598 0.1008
5 -0.4825 -0.0678 0.0452 -28.2818 -0.4421 0.2400 -0.2085
6 0.5665 -0.0086 0.0637 -44.3554 -0.0609 0.3679 -0.3560
7 0.2120 -0.0160 0.0368 -25.6055 -0.1038 0.1942 -0.1877
8 -1.1725 0.1103 -0.1627 105.1875 0.8474 -1.0177 0.9137
9 0.4740 -0.0400 0.0295 -11.8271 -0.2808 0.1690 -0.0940
10 -0.4435 0.0166 0.0174 -21.6301 0.1138 0.0971 -0.1678
11 -0.3985 0.0048 0.0344 -32.3283 0.0319 0.1865 -0.2432

P o
l t o fA c tu a l and F itted V a u
l es
500

400
D ep end en tV a r iab le

300

200

100

-100
0 4 8 12
R ow N um b e rs

Ac u
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t dY bl A c u
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i u a ls
80

40
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R es d

-40

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107
 Annexure-D

Nom
r a lP o
l t o fR es d
i u a ls
99 9
.9

99 9
.

99

90
80
P rob ab i l ity

70
60
50
40
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01
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-80 -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
R es d
i ua s
l

108
 Annexure-D

Linear Regression
Regression Results (Year 2005)
Valid Number of Cases: 9, 0 Omitted
Dependent Variable: Qs

Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic Significance Lower 95% Upper 95%

Q 0.0340 0.0806 0.4222 0.6876 -0.1632 0.2313
Pw 0.2321 0.2878 0.8066 0.4507 -0.4720 0.9362
Vk -71.5099 240.3995 -0.2975 0.7761 -659.7464 516.7266

Residual Sum of Squares = 39582.6397

Standard Error = 81.2226
Mean of Y = 163.6667
Standard Deviation of Y = 72.1665
Correlation Coefficient = 0.9274
R-squared = 0.8600
Adjusted R-squared = 0.7900
F(3,6) = 12.2863
Significance of F = 0.0057
Durbin-Watson Statistic = 2.8829
Log of Likelihood = -50.8452
Press Statistic = 133048.5300

ANOVA of Regression
Due To Sum of Squares DoF Mean Square F-Stat Signif
Q 167116.959 1 167116.959 25.332 0.0024
Pw 75461.662 1 75461.662 11.439 0.0148
Vk 583.739 1 583.739 0.088 0.7761
Regression 243162.360 3 81054.120 12.286 0.0057
Error 39582.640 6 6597.107
Total 282745.000 9 31416.111 4.762 0.0355

Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 1.0000 -0.2814 0.1663
Pw -0.2814 1.0000 -0.9885
Vk 0.1663 -0.9885 1.0000

Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 0.0065 -0.0065 3.2228
Pw -0.0065 0.0828 -68.3769
Vk 3.2228 -68.3769 57791.9410

Actual and Fitted Values

Row Actual * Fitted + 32.0000 269.0000
1 137.0000 131.9149 +*
2 32.0000 168.0003 * +
3 269.0000 189.0047 + *
4 138.0000 175.4470 * +
5 207.0000 171.5582 + *
6 122.0000 165.2527 * +
7 157.0000 164.9225 * +
8 254.0000 153.7263 + *
9 157.0000 153.1680 +*

109
 Annexure-D

Residuals
Row Residuals -136.0003 136.0003
1 5.0851 *
2 -136.0003 *
3 79.9953 *
4 -37.4470 *
5 35.4418 *
6 -43.2527 *
7 -7.9225 *
8 100.2737 *
9 3.8320 *

95% Confidence Intervals for Mean and Actual Y Values

lb Actual Y lb Mean of Y Fitted Y ub Mean of Y ub Actual Y
1 -135.3133 -46.7232 131.9149 310.5531 399.1432
2 -49.1282 80.5622 168.0003 255.4383 385.1288
3 -71.6147 20.4131 189.0047 357.5963 449.6241
4 -40.4488 91.1165 175.4470 259.7774 391.3427
5 -51.3665 70.5827 171.5582 272.5337 394.4829
6 -55.9101 68.2289 165.2527 262.2765 386.4155
7 -56.6052 67.0699 164.9225 262.7752 386.4502
8 -61.7826 70.3913 153.7263 237.0612 369.2352
9 -63.1100 67.8636 153.1680 238.4724 369.4461

Case (Diagnostic) Statistics

Fitted Standard Standardis Adjusted Residuals Standard Standardis Studentise
Values Error of ed Fitted Fitted Error of ed d
Fitted Residuals Residuals Residuals
1 131.9149 73.0056 -1.9676 110.5289 5.0851 35.5991 0.0626 0.1428
2 168.0003 35.7340 0.2686 200.6423 -136.0003 72.9396 -1.6744 -1.8646
3 189.0047 68.8997 1.5702 -16.2739 79.9953 43.0108 0.9849 1.8599
4 175.4470 34.4640 0.7301 183.6695 -37.4470 73.5482 -0.4610 -0.5091
5 171.5582 41.2665 0.4891 159.2262 35.4418 69.9584 0.4364 0.5066
6 165.2527 39.6515 0.0983 178.7861 -43.2527 70.8863 -0.5325 -0.6102
7 164.9225 39.9903 0.0779 167.4576 -7.9225 70.6957 -0.0975 -0.1121
8 153.7263 34.0572 -0.6160 132.3354 100.2737 73.7375 1.2346 1.3599
9 153.1680 34.8621 -0.6506 152.3027 3.8320 73.3604 0.0472 0.0522

Press Studentise Leverage Cook's Mahalanobi Welsch Covratio DfFit

(Deleted) d Press Distance s Distance Distance
Residuals Residuals
1 26.4711 0.1306 0.8079 0.0286 7.2711 1.7286 8.9039 21.3860
2 -168.6423 -2.6246 0.1936 0.2781 1.7420 -4.0499 0.1594 -32.6420
3 285.2739 2.6091 0.7196 2.9589 6.4763 22.3238 0.4680 205.2786
4 -45.6695 -0.4752 0.1800 0.0190 1.6204 -0.6955 1.8459 -8.2225
5 47.7738 0.4727 0.2581 0.0298 2.3232 0.9156 2.0429 12.3319
6 -56.7861 -0.5751 0.2383 0.0388 2.1449 -1.0426 1.8720 -13.5335
7 -10.4576 -0.1024 0.2424 0.0013 2.1817 -0.1882 2.2666 -2.5350
8 121.6646 1.4925 0.1758 0.1315 1.5824 2.1477 0.6941 21.3909
9 4.6973 0.0477 0.1842 0.0002 1.6580 0.0710 2.1153 0.8654

Standardise Delta-Beta Q Delta-Beta Delta-Beta Standardise Standardise Standardise

d DfFit Pw Vk d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta
Q Pw Vk
1 0.2679 -0.0057 -0.0634 59.3998 -0.0650 -0.2016 0.2259
2 -1.2858 -0.0418 0.1040 -90.3910 -0.7296 0.5086 -0.5293
3 4.1795 0.2205 -0.2341 147.5498 3.8365 -1.1410 0.8610
4 -0.2227 -0.0102 -0.0155 12.7876 -0.1185 -0.0503 0.0496
5 0.2788 -0.0045 0.0699 -54.0539 -0.0522 0.2267 -0.2098
6 -0.3217 0.0117 -0.0738 53.9068 0.1368 -0.2418 0.2114
7 -0.0579 0.0023 -0.0137 9.9769 0.0256 -0.0435 0.0379
8 0.6894 -0.0302 0.0250 1.3294 -0.4112 0.0953 0.0061
9 0.0227 -0.0012 0.0010 0.0137 -0.0141 0.0033 0.0001

110
 Annexure-D

P o
l t o fA c tu a l and F itted V a u
l es
500

400

D ep end en tV a r iab le
300

200

100

-100

-200
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
R ow N um b e rs

Ac u
t a lY F ite
t dY bl A c u
t a lY bl M ean o fY ubM ean o fY ub A c u
t a lY

P o
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i u a ls

100
i u a ls

0
R es d

-100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
R ow N um b e rs

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 Annexure-D

Nom
r a lP o
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i u a ls
99 9
.9

99 9
.

99

90
80
P rob ab i l ity

70
60
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01
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-140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
R es d
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112
 Annexure-D

Linear Regression
Regression Results (Sum of Years - 2000 to 2005)
Valid Number of Cases: 6, 0 Omitted
Dependent Variable: Qs

Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic Significance Lower 95% Upper 95%

Q 0.0732 0.1417 0.5163 0.6413 -0.3778 0.5241
Pw -0.2632 0.1845 -1.4268 0.2489 -0.8503 0.3239
Vk 344.0201 165.6670 2.0766 0.1294 -183.2063 871.2466

Residual Sum of Squares = 1528.3148

Standard Error = 22.5707
Mean of Y = 163.1667
Standard Deviation of Y = 32.3816
Correlation Coefficient = 0.9954
R-squared = 0.9907
Adjusted R-squared = 0.9815
F(3,3) = 106.9509
Significance of F = 0.0015
Durbin-Watson Statistic = 1.7435
Log of Likelihood = -25.7136
Press Statistic = 91356.8138

ANOVA of Regression
Due To Sum of Squares DoF Mean Square F-Stat Signif
Q 153628.345 1 153628.345 301.564 0.0004
Pw 7629.558 1 7629.558 14.976 0.0305
Vk 2196.782 1 2196.782 4.312 0.1294
Regression 163454.685 3 54484.895 106.951 0.0015
Error 1528.315 3 509.438
Total 164983.000 6 27497.167 53.975 0.0038

Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 1.0000 0.3372 -0.4778
Pw 0.3372 1.0000 -0.9870
Vk -0.4778 -0.9870 1.0000

Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients

Q Pw Vk
Q 0.0201 0.0088 -11.2160
Pw 0.0088 0.0340 -30.1652
Vk -11.2160 -30.1652 27445.5694

Actual and Fitted Values

Row Actual * Fitted + 128.0000 206.0756
1 128.0000 139.8819 * +
2 132.0000 129.6966 + *
3 197.0000 164.9694 + *
4 206.0000 206.0756 *
5 159.0000 177.4528 * +
6 157.0000 160.9192 * +

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 Annexure-D

Residuals
Row Residuals -32.0306 32.0306
1 -11.8819 *
2 2.3034 *
3 32.0306 *
4 -0.0756 *
5 -18.4528 *
6 -3.9192 *

95% Confidence Intervals for Mean and Actual Y Values

lb Actual Y lb Mean of Y Fitted Y ub Mean of Y ub Actual Y
1 55.8653 96.3020 139.8819 183.4619 223.8985
2 41.1947 77.9954 129.6966 181.3977 218.1984
3 87.1972 135.1543 164.9694 194.7845 242.7416
4 112.4775 146.0670 206.0756 266.0842 299.6737
5 96.9273 141.0552 177.4528 213.8504 257.9783
6 59.6705 89.5628 160.9192 232.2756 262.1680

Case (Diagnostic) Statistics

Fitted Standard Standardis Adjusted Residuals Standard Standardis Studentise
Values Error of ed Fitted Fitted Error of ed d
Fitted Residuals Residuals Residuals
1 139.8819 13.6939 -0.8541 146.8033 -11.8819 17.9420 -0.5264 -0.6622
2 129.6966 16.2457 -1.2277 127.2204 2.3034 15.6689 0.1021 0.1470
3 164.9694 9.3686 0.0662 158.3022 32.0306 20.5345 1.4191 1.5598
4 206.0756 18.8561 1.5740 206.2502 -0.0756 12.4050 -0.0033 -0.0061
5 177.4528 11.4370 0.5241 183.8276 -18.4528 19.4585 -0.8176 -0.9483
6 160.9192 22.4219 -0.0824 455.1047 -3.9192 2.5880 -0.1736 -1.5144

Press Studentise Leverage Cook's Mahalanob Welsch Covratio DfFit

(Deleted) d Press Distance is Distance Distance
Residuals Residuals
1 -18.8033 -0.5852 0.3681 0.0852 2.2086 -1.2563 3.3244 -6.9214
2 4.7796 0.1205 0.5181 0.0077 3.1084 0.4023 6.8528 2.4761
3 38.6978 2.9298 0.1723 0.1688 1.0337 3.2853 0.0275 6.6672
4 -0.2502 -0.0050 0.6979 0.0000 4.1876 -0.0308 11.1726 -0.1746
5 -24.8276 -0.9253 0.2568 0.1036 1.5406 -1.4106 1.5591 -6.3748
6 -298.1047 -2.5478 0.9869 57.3822 5.9211 -430.4700 3.3545 -294.1855

Standardise Delta-Beta Q Delta-Beta Delta-Beta Standardise Standardise Standardise

d DfFit Pw Vk d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta d Delta-Beta
Q Pw Vk
1 -0.4466 0.0359 -0.0350 19.9458 0.2240 -0.1679 0.1064
2 0.1249 -0.0097 0.0147 -9.8478 -0.0563 0.0655 -0.0487
3 1.3367 -0.0151 -0.0128 19.0058 -0.1999 -0.1301 0.2155
4 -0.0076 0.0001 0.0014 -1.2176 0.0005 0.0062 -0.0060
5 -0.5439 0.0217 0.0561 -54.6701 0.1494 0.2967 -0.3220
6 -22.0736 -1.6487 -1.2543 1324.3501 -19.5759 -11.4378 13.4490

114
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P o
l t o fA c tu a l and F itted V a u
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300

D ep end en tV a r iab le
200

100

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
R ow N um b e rs

Ac u
t a lY F ite
t dY bl A c u
t a lY bl M ean o fY ubM ean o fY ub A c u
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P o
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30

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i u a ls

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-10

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 Annexure-D

Nom
r a lP o
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i u a ls
99 9
.9

99 9
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99

90
80
P rob ab i l ity

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60
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-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
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