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Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Market 2016-

2026: Spending and Production Forecasts for Polymers,


Surfactants, Biopolymers and ASP
5.13 Global Polymer/Surfactant Flooding Production Forecast 2016-
2026

Table 5.7, Figures 5.15 and 5.16 show production forecasts for the combined use of polymers and
surfactants during the period between 2016 and 2026.

Table 5.7 Global Polymer/Surfactant EOR Production Forecast, 2016-2026 (bbl/d,


AGR %, CAGR%, Cumulative)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2016-26

Production (bbl/d) 74,862 73,954 72,711 73,565 77,237 82,943 84,491 92,619 109,861 134,065 152,865 154,246 1,108,556
AGR (%) -1% -2% 1% 5% 7% 2% 10% 19% 22% 14% 1%
CAGR (%) 2016-21 2.7% 2021-26 12.8%
CAGR (%) 2016-26 7.6%

Source: Visiongain 2016

Figure 5.18 Global Polymer/Surfactant EOR Production Forecast, 2016-2026 (bbl/d,


AGR%)
180,000 25%

160,000
20%
140,000

120,000 15%
Production (bbl/d)

100,000
AGR (%)

10%
80,000

60,000 5%

40,000
0%
20,000

0 -5%
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Production (bbl/d) AGR (%)

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Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Market 2016-
2026: Spending and Production Forecasts for Polymers,
Surfactants, Biopolymers and ASP
6.5 The Omani Chemical EOR Production and Market Forecast 2016-
2026

6.5.1 The Omani Chemical EOR Production Forecast 2016-2026


Table 6.14, Figure 6.27, and Figure 6.28 display visiongain’s production forecast for Omani
chemical EOR over the next ten years.

Table 6.15 The Omani Chemical EOR Production Forecast, 2016-2026 (bbl/d, AGR %,
CAGR%, Cumulative)

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2016-26
Production
(Mbbl/d) 8,700 8,800 11,000 13,600 19,700 26,000 32,000 39,000 44,000 47,000 48,000 48,500 337,600
AGR (%) 1% 25% 24% 45% 32% 23% 22% 13% 7% 2% 1%
CAGR (%) 2016-21 29.5% 2021-26 8.7%
CAGR (%) 2016-26 18.6%

Source: Visiongain 2016

Figure 6.27 The Omani Chemical EOR Production Forecast, 2016-2026 (bbl/d, AGR %)

60,000 50%
45%
50,000
40%
Production (bbl/day)

35%
40,000
30%
AGR (%)

30,000 25%
20%
20,000
15%
10%
10,000
5%
0 0%
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

Production (bbl/day) AGR (%)

Source: Visiongain 2016

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Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Market 2016-
2026: Spending and Production Forecasts for Polymers,
Surfactants, Biopolymers and ASP

Figure 6.28 The Omani Chemical EOR Production Share Forecast, 2016, 2021 and
2026 (%)
2016 2021 2026

2.5% 7.2 8.5


% %

Source: Visiongain 2016

Oman is one of the greatest chemical EOR producing countries in the world, and production is set
to increase substantially over the forecasted period, with a CAGR of 18.6% between 2016 and
2026. In 2016, visiongain anticipates a production of 8,800 bbl/d as a direct result of chemical
EOR; and by 2021 this is expected to increase to 32,000 bbl/d. This growth is largely as a result of
expansion plans at the Marmul field, as well as an increase in production from other fields. By
2026, production is estimated at 48,500 bbl/d. This growth is passed through to Oman’s global
market share, which is set to increase from 2.5% in 2016, to 8.7% by 2026.

6.5.2 The Omani Chemical EOR Spending Market Forecast 2016-2026

Table 6.15, Figure 6.30 and Figure 6.31 display visiongain’s spending forecast for the Omani
chemical EOR market over the next ten years.

Table 6.16 The Omani Chemical EOR Spending Market Forecast, 2016-2026 ($m, AGR
%, CAGR%, Cumulative)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2016-26
Spending $m 120 290 420 410 400 340 330 380 420 450 480 485 4,405
AGR (%) 142% 45% -2% -2% -15% -3% 15% 11% 7% 7% 1%
CAGR (%) 2016-21 2.6% 2021-26 8.0%
CAGR (%) 2016-26 5.3%

Source: Visiongain 2016

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Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Market 2016-
2026: Spending and Production Forecasts for Polymers,
Surfactants, Biopolymers and ASP
Figure 6.29 The Omani Chemical EOR Spending Market Forecast, 2016-2026 ($m,
AGR %)
600 160%
140%
500
120%
100%
400
Spending ($m)

80%

AGR (%)
300 60%
40%
200
20%
0%
100
-20%
0 -40%
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026
Spending ($m) AGR (%)

Source: Visiongain 2016

Figure 6.30 The Omani Chemical EOR Spending Market Share Forecast, 2016, 2021
and 2026 (%)
2016 2021 2026

12.1% 9.0% 10.4%

Source: Visiongain 2016

Spending in the Omani chemical EOR market is valued at $290m in 2016, and ramps up to $330m
by 2021, after growing at a CAGR of 2.6%. This fast growth is as a result of Marmul expansion
phases 2 and 3.

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Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Market 2016-
2026: Spending and Production Forecasts for Polymers,
Surfactants, Biopolymers and ASP
9. Expert Opinion

9.1. Kemira

Visiongain conducted an interview with Kemira in March 2016. The


company is headquartered in Helsinki, Finlad and is among the largest chemical industry groups,
servicing various customers in the oil&gas, water treatment, food, mining, pharmaceutical and
paper industries. Mr Natesh Gurumurthi is the Director of Global Business Development, Oil &
Mining.

9.1.1 Introduction

Visiongain: Please describe your company’s involvement in the chemical EOR market for our
readers.

Natesh Gurumurthi: Kemira is the #2 producer of polyacrylamide globally and has strategically
focused its efforts on CEOR since 2014. We provide a full range of chemicals, injection equipment
and conformance services under the MaxXtract™ brand, to improve the sweep efficiency and
enable customers to extract more oil while extending the economic life of the field.

Visiongain: To which regions does Kemira currently supply chemicals for EOR? In which regions
are you expecting to see the greatest growth in chemical EOR demand?

Natesh Gurumurthi: We are supplying chemicals to the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In
the current market environment, a lot of capital projects are being re-evaluated, so it is difficult to
predict which region will lead the growth.

9.1.2 Effects of The Oil Price Collapse

Visiongain: The oil price fall has already led to the delay and cancellation of some projects. I know
that the economics of the chemical EOR market are very project specific, but assuming oil prices
remain in the $40-$60 per barrel range in the next few years, do you expect to see lots more

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Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Market 2016-
2026: Spending and Production Forecasts for Polymers,
Surfactants, Biopolymers and ASP

Figure10.1 Leading Companies and Research Bodies in the Global Chemical EOR
Market (Operators, Chemical Providers and Developers and R&D Institutes)

Operators Chemical Providers R&D


and Developers Institutes
Anterra
Energy Centre of
BASF Research in EOR,
Blackpearl Malaysia
Dow
BP Chemical EOR
Alliance®
Cairn Energy Huntsman
India National
Enhanced Oil
Cenovus Kemira Recovery
Institute
Chevron Nalco
CNOOC
Oil Chem
CNPC Technologies

CNRL Sasol

Ecopetrol Shell
Chemicals
Harvest
Operations SNF Group

Husky
Solvay
Medco Energi
Internasional Stepan
Murphy
Surtek
ONGC
PDO Tiorco

Pertamina

Petronas

Rex Energy

Shell

Sinopec

Statoil

Total

Wintershall
Source: Visiongain 2016

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Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Market 2016-
2026: Spending and Production Forecasts for Polymers,
Surfactants, Biopolymers and ASP
10.1 Major Oil Companies in the Chemical EOR Market

10.1.1 BlackPearl Resources Inc.


Table 10.2 provides an overview of BlackPearl Resources including their 2015 global market share
rank.
Table 10.2 BlackPearl Resources Overview: Total Daily Production, 2016 Chemical
EOR Production Forecast, Oil and Gas Sales 2015, 2015 Chemical EOR Global
Production Share, 2015 Chemical EOR Global Production Rank, Headquarters,
Ticker, Employees, Website (bbl/d, $m, %)
Total Daily Crude Oil 7,434 (2015)
Production (bbl/d)
2016 Chemical EOR 2,000
Production Forecast (bbl/d)
Oil and Gas Sales $96,271,000 (2015)
2016 Chemical EOR Global 0.6%
Production Share %
2016 Chemical EOR 7th
Production Rank
Headquarters Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Ticker PXX: Toronto
Employees 44
Website www.blackpearlresources.ca

Source: Visiongain 2016

10.1.1.1 BlackPearl Resources Analysis

As a Canadian oil and gas company focusing on heavy oil and oil sand projects in western
Canada, BlackPearl Resources are also implementing a chemical EOR project at their Mooney
site. The company is largely based in Canada, and has assets in conventional and EOR based
projects – both chemical EOR and SAGD.

Currently chemical EOR is active at the Mooney field, with the use of SAGD at the Blackrod site
and thermal recovery due that started at Onion Lake in 2015. The following graph highlights the
distribution of Blackpearl’s capital expenditure expected for 2016. The company suffers from low oil

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