HYDROLOGIC

FREQUENCY
ANALYSIS
Adopted from the article “Probability Concepts in Hydrology “by Wilfredo
P. David, PhD, Professor of Water Resources Engineering, UPLB
characteristics of a rainstorm
 intensity (mm/hr)
 duration (min, hours, days)

 areal extent (m2, ha)

 area over which it is distributed
 frequency
 once in 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 50 or 100 years
basic terms in statistical hydrology
 time period of interest (N)
 probability of occurrence (P)

 recurrence interval or return period (T)

 the average number of years during which a
storm of given magnitude (maximum depth
or intensity) may be expected to occur once,
i.e., may be equalled or exceeded.
probability that a T-year storm
may occur in any series of N
years
probability that a T-year storm
may NOT occur in any series of
N years
 problem
A road culvert is designed for a 10-
year flood with a magnitude of 1.5
m3/s.
SOLVE AND INTERPRET THE FF:
1) Probability of exceedance in any given year

2) Probability of non-exceedance in any given

year
3) Probability of exceedance in 10 years
hydrologic frequency analysis
 the
probabilistic
analysis of
hydrologic
processes
A hydrologic process is any hydrologic
phenomenon which undergoes continuous
changes with time.

• deterministic
• probabilistic
• stochastic
 HYDROLOGIC FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

Deterministic Process

• a deterministic process is one in which a definite law

of certainty exists
• this means, the output is predictable for a given input
• it is one where the chance element is ignored as in the
case of flood routing
 HYDROLOGIC FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

Probabilistic and Stochastic Process

• is one governed by chance phenomena, that is, there are
so many causes at work that the influence of one cannot
be readily identified
• a stochastic process is time dependent. This means that
the sequence of occurrence of events or the time series
is considered in its analysis
• a probabilistic process,
on the other hand,
is time series
independent

FROM DENR WEBSITE

objective of frequency analysis
 torelate the magnitude of events
to their frequency of occurrence
through probability distribution,
that is, a frequency curve
frequency curve
frequency curve: application
Typhoon Glenda

Duration ≈ 20 hours
= 1,200 min

Depth ≈ 5 x 50mm + 6 x 5mm

= 280 mm

Intensity ≈ 14 mm/hr
Duration ≈ 1,200 min
Depth ≈ 280 mm
Intensity ≈ 14 mm/hr
Return Period ≈ 20 years
steps in frequency analysis
1. Selection of Data
2. Determination of Statistical
Parameters
3. Fitting of Data
4. Testing the Significance of
Results
 1. selection of data
A. ANNUAL SERIES
 only one data point per year, usually the
maximum
 1. selection of data
B. PARTIAL DURATION SERIES
 all data above a given threshold value
2. statistical parameters

standard deviation
skewness
3. fitting of data to known
statistical distributions
 normal distribution
 log-normal distribution

 log-Pearson Type III

distribution
 other applicable density
functions
 A - Right Skewed
 B - Normal
 C - Left Skewed
SKEWNESS +0.044
normal distribution

4. adequacy of records
 limitations of analysis

 independence
a hydrologic
event is not
influenced by
another event
limitations of analysis
 homogeneity
 events under the same type of
conditions or statistical properties
are not changing
 representative of long term of
records for the region under
analysis
 PROBABILITY DENSITY
FUNCTIONS
1. normal density function
2. log-normal function with two
parameters
3. gamma density function with two
parameters
4. kappa density functions
 1. normal density function

where
x = random variable
µ = population mean
σ = population standard deviation
2. log-normal density function

where
x = random variable
µ = population mean
σ = population standard deviation
of the ln x values
 3. gamma density function

where
x = random variable
α = shape parameter
β = scale parameter
Г(α) = gamma function of α where Г(α) =
(α-1)
 4. kappa density function

where
x = random variable
α = shape parameter
β = scale parameter
 5. Gumbel distribution

where
M = mean of the sample
S = standard deviation
T = return period
XT = magnitude at a certain T
 PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING SELECTED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
 The numerous studies conducted at UPLB
gave the following results:
1. The gamma density function gave the best
fit for most stations for the one-week, two-
week, three-week and one-month rainfall
totals.
• Although it did not give good fit for the one-
week period, the log-normal density function
gave good fit for two-week, three-week and
one-month rainfall totals for a considerable
number of stations. This is more so during
the wet periods.
 PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING SELECTED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL

• Due to a problem of divergence of the

maximum likelihood estimators of the kappa
density function, a very reliable comparison
with other functions regarding the goodness
of fit was not possible for the time being.
• However, partial results showed that the
kappa distribution fitted to the observed
distributions of one-week, two-week and
monthly totals of some stations.
 PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING SELECTED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL

2. The normal, log-normal and the gamma

density functions gave equally good fit for
the one year rainfall totals. At least one of
these functions may be used to describe the
behavior of annual precipitation in the
Philippines.
3. No regional characteristics especially
favored the use of any of the selected
functions in fitting the observed rainfall
distributions of any of the periods
considered.