TUESDAY

WEEK DOW INDICATOR1 DEMAND BOOKINGS PICKUP RATIO DOW INDEX

1 1 1,470 1,512 0.972 0.865
2 870 864 1.007 0.911
3 986 827 1.192 0.973
4 1,247 952 1.310 1.013
5 1,109 740 1.499 1.068
6 1,197 908 1.318 1.123
7 1,500 1,311 1.144 1.049
2 1 1,854 2,034 0.912 0.865
2 1,489 1,584 0.940 0.911
3 1,792 1,682 1.065 0.973
4 1,708 1,684 1.014 1.013
5 1,787 1,600 1.117 1.068
6 1,314 1,077 1.220 1.123
7 1,136 956 1.188 1.049
3 1 1,537 1,455 1.056 0.865
2 1,132 1,001 1.131 0.911
3 1,368 1,131 1.210 0.973
4 1,488 1,151 1.293 1.013
5 1,392 942 1.478 1.068
6 1,321 884 1.494 1.123
7 1,469 1,315 1.117 1.049
4 1 1,795 1,885 0.952 0.865
2 1,780 1,963 0.907 0.911
3 1,841 2,006 0.918 0.973
4 1,774 1,855 0.956 1.013
5 1,835 1,962 0.935 1.068
6 1,847 2,019 0.915 1.123
7 1,833 2,052 0.893 1.049
5 1 1,847 2,018 0.915 0.865
2 1,680 1,706 0.985 0.911
3 1,680 1,874 0.896 0.973
4 1,798 1,827 0.984 1.013
5 1,843 1,734 1.063 1.068
6 1,322 1,124 1.176 1.123
7 1,022 803 1.273 1.049
6 1 1,298 1,356 0.957 0.865
2 956 848 1.127 0.911
3 1,236 966 1.280 0.973
4 1,306 909 1.437 1.013
5 1,176 798 1.474 1.068
6 1,134 731 1.551 1.123
7 1,164 869 1.339 1.049
7 1 1,486 1,372 1.083 0.865
 2 870 760 1.145 0.911
3 1,392 1,144 1.217 0.973
4 1,747 1,450 1.205 1.013
5 1,861 1,739 1.070 1.068
6 1,797 1,491 1.205 1.123
7 1,719 1,477 1.164 1.049
8 1 1,729 1,801 0.960 0.865
2 1,251 1,096 1.141 0.911
3 1,682 1,605 1.048 0.973
4 1,795 1,788 1.004 1.013
5 1,814 1,836 0.988 1.068
6 1,772 1,626 1.090 1.123
7 1,885 1,479 1.275 1.049
9 1 1,924 2,105 0.914 0.865
2 1,591 1,720 0.925 0.911
3 1,727 1,554 1.111 0.973
4 1,772 1,561 1.135 1.013
5 1,748 1,563 1.118 1.068
6 1,748 1,594 1.097 1.123
7 1,643 1,708 0.962 1.049
10 1 1,765 2,086 0.846 0.865
2 1,748 1,816 0.963 0.911
3 1,795 1,668 1.076 0.973
4 1,672 1,461 1.144 1.013
5 1,345 1,027 1.310 1.068
6 1,273 1,042 1.222 1.123
7 1,600 1,442 1.110 1.049
11 1 1,773 1,941 0.913 0.865
2 1,292 1,401 0.922 0.911
3 1,753 1,807 0.970 0.973
4 1,805 1,681 1.074 1.013
5 1,601 1,413 1.133 1.068
6 722 599 1.205 1.123
7 889 831 1.070 1.049
12 1 1,058 1,123 0.942 0.865
2 887 952 0.932 0.911
3 1,676 1,750 0.958 0.973
4 1,775 1,777 0.999 1.013
5 1,759 1,748 1.006 1.068
6 1,093 932 1.173 1.123
7 1,217 969 1.256 1.049
13 1 1,542 1,562 0.987 0.865
2 988 1,004 0.984 0.911
3 1,510 1,404 1.075 0.973
4 1,657
 5 1,643
6 1,124
7 1,074
14 1 1,839
2 1,862
3 1,886
4 1,696
5 1,002
6 794
7 1,106

1
DOW Indicator: DOW Date of the Week Indicator
1 = Saturday
2 = Sunday
3 = Monday
4 = Tuesday
5 = Wednesday
6 = Thursday
7 = Friday
Naïve Forecast

DOW TUESDAY
INDICATO BOOKING PICKUP DOW Forecasted squared
WEEK R1 DEMAND S RATIO INDEX Demand Error error
1 1 1,470 1,512 0.972 0.865
2 1 1,854 2,034 0.912 0.865 1,470 384 147456
3 1 1,537 1,455 1.056 0.865 1,854 317 100489
4 1 1,795 1,885 0.952 0.865 1,537 258 66564
5 1 1,847 2,018 0.915 0.865 1,795 52 2704
6 1 1,298 1,356 0.957 0.865 1,847 549 301401
7 1 1,486 1,372 1.083 0.865 1,298 188 35344
8 1 1,729 1,801 0.960 0.865 1,486 243 59049
9 1 1,924 2,105 0.914 0.865 1,729 195 38025
10 1 1,765 2,086 0.846 0.865 1,924 159 25281
11 1 1,773 1,941 0.913 0.865 1,765 8 64
12 1 1,058 1,123 0.942 0.865 1,773 715 511225
13 1 1,542 1,562 0.987 0.865 1,058 484 234256
14 1 1,839 1,542
MAD MSE
296 126821.5

Forecast using Pickup Ratio

DOW TUESDAY
INDICATO BOOKING PICKUP DOW Forecasted
WEEK R1 DEMAND S RATIO INDEX F PR Demand Error
1 1 1,470 1,512 0.972 0.865
2 1 1,854 2,034 0.912 0.865 0.9722222222 1977.5 123.5
3 1 1,537 1,455 1.056 0.865 0.9115044248 1326.23894 210.7610619
4 1 1,795 1,885 0.952 0.865 1.0563573883 1991.23368 196.233677
5 1 1,847 2,018 0.915 0.865 0.9522546419 1921.64987 74.64986737
6 1 1,298 1,356 0.957 0.865 0.9152626363 1241.09613 56.90386521
7 1 1,486 1,372 1.083 0.865 0.9572271386 1313.31563 172.6843658
8 1 1,729 1,801 0.960 0.865 1.083090379 1950.64577 221.6457726
9 1 1,924 2,105 0.914 0.865 0.9600222099 2020.84675 96.8467518
10 1 1,765 2,086 0.846 0.865 0.9140142518 1906.63373 141.6337292
11 1 1,773 1,941 0.913 0.865 0.8461169703 1642.31304 130.6869607
12 1 1,058 1,123 0.942 0.865 0.913446677 1025.80062 32.19938176
13 1 1,542 1,562 0.987 0.865 0.9421193232 1471.59038 70.4096171
14 1 1,839 0.9871959027 1815.45327
 MAD
127.3462542

DOW TUESDAY
INDICATO BOOKING PICKUP DOW
WEEK R1 DEMAND S RATIO INDEX F pr
1 1 1,470 1,512 0.972 0.864773
2 1 1,854 2,034 0.912 0.864773
3 1 1,537 1,455 1.056 0.864773
4 1 1,795 1,885 0.952 0.864773 0.980
5 1 1,847 2,018 0.915 0.864773 0.973 1964.265 117.2650021
6 1 1,298 1,356 0.957 0.864773 0.975 1321.5913 23.59134926
7 1 1,486 1,372 1.083 0.864773 0.942 1291.850 194.15022
8 1 1,729 1,801 0.960 0.864773 0.985 1774.333 45.33328574
9 1 1,924 2,105 0.914 0.864773 1.000 2105.238 181.2383755
10 1 1,765 2,086 0.846 0.864773 0.986 2056.189 291.1888632
11 1 1,773 1,941 0.913 0.864773 0.907 1759.939 13.06072953
12 1 1,058 1,123 0.942 0.864773 0.891 1000.809 57.19067313
13 1 1,542 1,562 0.987 0.864773 0.901 1406.676 135.3237334
14 1 1,839 0.948 1742.613
 %Error

20.71%
20.62%
14.37%
2.82%
42.30%
12.65%
14.05%
10.14%
9.01%
0.45%
67.58%
31.39%

MAPE
20.51%

squared error %Error

15252.25 6.07%
44420.22523 14.49%
38507.65598 10.41%
5572.602699 3.70%
3238.049876 4.20%
29819.89019 12.59%
49126.84851 12.31%
9379.293335 4.60%
20060.11325 6.79%
17079.08169 6.73%
1036.800186 2.87%
4957.51418 4.51%
MSE MAPE
19870.86043 7.44%

DOW TUESDAY
INDICATO BOOKING
WEEK R1 DEMAND S
1 1 1,470 1,512
2 1 1,854 2,034
3 1 1,537 1,455
4 1 1,795 1,885
13751.08071 6.35% 5 1 1,847 2,018
556.5517598 1.82% 6 1 1,298 1,356
37694.30794 13.07% 7 1 1,486 1,372
2055.106796 2.62% 8 1 1,729 1,801
32847.34875 9.42% 9 1 1,924 2,105
84790.95406 16.50% 10 1 1,765 2,086
170.5826559 0.74% 11 1 1,773 1,941
3270.773093 5.41% 12 1 1,058 1,123
18312.51281 8.78% 13 1 1,542 1,562
14 1 1,839
PICKUP DOW
RATIO INDEX F pr F Demand Error Sq Error %Error
0.972 0.864773
0.912 0.864773
1.056 0.864773
0.952 0.864773
0.915 0.864773 0.971 1959.472 112.4718 12649.91 6.09% w1 0.1
0.957 0.864773 0.936 1269.7512 28.2488 797.9946 2.18% w2 0.1
1.083 0.864773 0.958 1314.719 171.281 29337.17 11.53% w3 0.2
0.960 0.864773 1.028 1851.521 122.5205 15011.28 7.09% w4 0.6
0.914 0.864773 0.980 2062.648 138.6482 19223.32 7.21%
0.846 0.864773 0.944 1970.112 205.1117 42070.82 11.62%
0.913 0.864773 0.895 1736.776 36.22369 1312.156 2.04%
0.942 0.864773 0.905 1015.973 42.02746 1766.308 3.97%
0.987 0.864773 0.924 1443.247 98.75253 9752.062 6.40%
0.957 1759.367
MAD MSE MAPE
106.1429 14657.89 6.46%
Exp Smoothing

DOW TUESDAY
INDICATO BOOKING PICKUP DOW F
WEEK R1 DEMAND S RATIO INDEX F PR DEMAND Error Sq Error
1 1 1,470 1,512 0.972 0.864773
2 1 1,854 2,034 0.912 0.864773 0.97222 1977.5 123.5 15252.25
3 1 1,537 1,455 1.056 0.864773 0.941863 1370.411 166.5889 27751.85
4 1 1,795 1,885 0.952 0.864773 0.99911 1883.323 88.32302 7800.956
5 1 1,847 2,018 0.915 0.864773 0.975682 1968.927 121.9273 14866.26
6 1 1,298 1,356 0.957 0.864773 0.945473 1282.061 15.9392 254.058
7 1 1,486 1,372 1.083 0.864773 0.95135 1305.252 180.748 32669.84
8 1 1,729 1,801 0.960 0.864773 1.01722 1832.013 103.0134 10611.77
9 1 1,924 2,105 0.914 0.864773 0.988621 2081.048 157.0475 24663.93
10 1 1,765 2,086 0.846 0.864773 0.951318 1984.449 219.4487 48157.75
11 1 1,773 1,941 0.913 0.864773 0.898717 1744.41 28.58965 817.3678
12 1 1,058 1,123 0.942 0.864773 0.906082 1017.53 40.46991 1637.813
13 1 1,542 1,562 0.987 0.864773 0.924101 1443.445 98.55476 9713.041
14 1 1,839 0.955648 1757.437
 alpha 0.5

%error

6.66%
10.84%
4.92%
6.60%
1.23%
12.16%
5.96%
8.16%
12.43%
1.61%
3.83%
6.39%