‫ﻤﻠﺨﺹ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ‬

‫ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺸﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺃﺸﻜﺎل ﺍﻝﺫﻜﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻻ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺘﻔﻭﻕ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺤﺎﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻝﻠﺩﻤﺎﻍ ﺍﻝﺒﺸﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺤﻠﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺴﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻗﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ‪،‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ‪،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻱ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ‪ .‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ‪ ١٢٤‬ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻔﺫﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺭﻯ ﻭﻤﺩﻴﻨﺘﻲ ﺤﻤﺹ ﻭﺤﻤﺎﻩ‪.‬ﻭﺘﻤﺕ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﻠﺼﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻝﻡ ﺘﺘﺩﺭﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻜﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﻝﺩﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺜﻠﻰ )ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﺃﻗل ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻝﻤﺭﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﻝﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻭﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ(‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺫﻝﻙ ﺘﻡ ﻓﺤﺹ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻝﻠﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻤﺜل ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺨﻔﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺨﻔﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻡ ﻭﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺸﻴﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻠﻭﻙ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺘﻘﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻔﻴﺩﺓ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﻪ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩﻩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﻗﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺃﻡ ﻻ‪.‬ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻓﻌﺎﻝﺔ ﻝﺘﺨﻤﻴﻥ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ‪.‬‬

‫‪١‬‬
 ABSTRACT

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are a form of Artificial

Intelligence, which are mathematical models, inspired from the
brains of certain information-processing characteristics, producing
meaningful solutions, which fall beyond the reach of conventional
digital computers. In recent years, the use of ANNs has increased
in many areas of engineering . In this study ,ANNs are used for
predicting productivity and unit price for pipe lines installation
projects. Regarding the large number of the data and considerable
variations in this problem ,١٢٤ projects in Homs and Hamah were
used for this study . A network is developed to predict the
productivity and unit price for pipe lines installation project. In this
study , the results are then compared with data of actual
productivity and unit price to check the ANN model’s validity . The
results indicate that Artificial Neural Networks are a useful
technique for helping the contractor to predict his project's
productivity and unit price.
The descent gradient back propagation algorithm was employed
for predicating the productivity and unit price for pipe lines
installation projects. The optimum topology (which gives least
mean square error for both training and testing with fewer number
of epochs) is presented. Thus, the effects of the parameters, such
as the number of hidden layer(s), number of nodes in the input
layer, output layer and hidden layer(s), initialization weight factors
and the selection of the learning rate ,on the behavior of the
neural network have been investigated.

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 ‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪TABLE OF CONTENT‬‬

‫ﺍﻝﺼﻔﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻔﻬﺭﺱ‬
‫‪١‬‬ ‫‪ ١‬ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻷﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫‪٢‬‬ ‫‪ ١-١‬ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫‪٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-١‬ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫‪٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٣-١‬ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫‪٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٤-١‬ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ‬

‫‪٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٢‬ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻷﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬

‫‪ ٣‬ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻝﺙ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٩‬‬ ‫‪ ١-٣‬ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫‪٩‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-٣‬ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪١١‬‬ ‫‪ ٣-٣‬ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪١١‬‬ ‫‪ ١-٣-٣‬ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﻝﻠﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪١٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-٣-٣‬ﺃﺴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪١٩‬‬ ‫‪ ٤-٣‬ﺁﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻤل ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٠‬‬ ‫‪ ٥-٣‬ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٠‬‬ ‫‪ ١-٥-٣‬ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺒﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-٥-٣‬ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺤﺴﺏ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬
‫‪٢٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٣-٥-٣‬ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٤-٥-٣‬ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٥-٥-٣‬ﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﺍﻻﻝﻲ‬
‫‪٢٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٦-٥-٣‬ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﻭﻜﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٧-٥-٣‬ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٨-٥-٣‬ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺩﻓﺎﻋﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٦-٣‬ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ‬

‫‪٣‬‬
‫‪٢٤‬‬ ‫‪ ١-٦-٣‬ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﻗﺏ‬
‫‪٢٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-٦-٣‬ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﻗﺏ‬
‫‪٢٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٣-٦-٣‬ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻕ ﺍﻝﻬﺠﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫‪٢٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٤-٦-٣‬ﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻝﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬
‫‪٢٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٧-٣‬ﺘﻭﺍﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺸﻴﻁ ﺍﻝﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ‬
‫‪٣٠‬‬ ‫‪ ٨-٣‬ﺍﻻﻨﺤﻴﺎﺯﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻌﺘﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٣١‬‬ ‫‪ ٩-٣‬ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻡ‬
‫‪٣٦‬‬ ‫‪ ١٠-٣‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻷﺼﻐﺭﻱ ﻝﻠﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻭﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫‪٣٧‬‬ ‫‪ ١١-٣‬ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻔﻲ‬
‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫‪ ١-١١-٣‬ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-١١-٣‬ﺍﻝﺨﻭﺍﺭﺯﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٤٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٣-١١-٣‬ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻭﺯﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻡ‬
‫‪٤٦‬‬ ‫‪ ٤-١١-٣‬ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫‪٤٨‬‬ ‫‪ ١٢-٣‬ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬
‫‪٤٩‬‬ ‫‪ ١٣-٣‬ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٥٠‬‬ ‫‪ ١٤-٣‬ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٥١‬‬ ‫‪ ١٥-٣‬ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ ٤‬ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻊ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫)ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ(‬
‫‪٥٣‬‬ ‫‪ ١-٤‬ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‬
‫‪٥٣‬‬ ‫‪١-١-٤‬ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬
‫‪٥٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-١-٤‬ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‬
‫‪٥٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-٤‬ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬
‫‪٥٨‬‬ ‫‪ ٣-٤‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ‬
‫‪٦٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٤-٤‬ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ‬
‫‪٦٢‬‬ ‫‪ ١-٤-٤‬ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‬
‫‪٧٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-٤-٤‬ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ‬
‫‪٧٨‬‬ ‫‪ ٣-٤-٤‬ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻭﺍﺩ‬

‫‪٤‬‬
‫‪٨٠‬‬ ‫‪ ٤-٤-٤‬ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ‬
‫‪٨٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٥-٤-٤‬ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺇﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٨٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٦-٤-٤‬ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺒﻴﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٨٦‬‬ ‫‪ ٧-٤-٤‬ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺘﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﻭﻗﻊ‬
‫‪٨٧‬‬ ‫‪ ٨-٤-٤‬ﻫل ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺘﻜﻠﻴﻑ ﺒﺭﺒﻊ ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﻲ‬ ‫‪ ٥‬ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬
‫‪٨٩‬‬ ‫‪ ١-٥‬ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪٩٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-٥‬ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬
‫‪٩٥‬‬ ‫‪ ٣-٥‬ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ‬
‫‪١١٩‬‬ ‫‪ ٤-٥‬ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪ ٦‬ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺩﺱ‬
‫‪١٢٦‬‬ ‫‪ ١-٦‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ‬
‫‪١٢٨‬‬ ‫‪ ٢-٦‬ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬

‫‪ ٧‬ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺤﻕ‬
‫‪١٣١‬‬ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ‪١‬‬
‫‪١٤٣‬‬ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ‪٢‬‬
‫‪١٤٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬

‫‪٥‬‬
 ‫ﻓﻬﺭﺱ ﺍﻷﺸﻜﺎل‬
‫‪LIST OF FIGURES‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻔﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺸﻜل‬
‫‪١٠‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪١-٣‬‬
‫‪١١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ )‪(ANN‬‬ ‫‪٢-٣‬‬
‫‪١٥‬‬ ‫ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻋﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪٣-٣‬‬
‫‪١٦‬‬ ‫ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻋﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‬ ‫‪٤-٣‬‬
‫‪١٦‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻤل‬ ‫‪٥-٣‬‬
‫‪١٧‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪٦-٣‬‬
‫‪١٩‬‬ ‫ﺨﻭﺍﺭﺯﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻡ‬ ‫‪´٦-٣‬‬
‫‪٢٠‬‬ ‫ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻭﺤﻴﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻘﺔ‬ ‫‪٧-٣‬‬
‫‪٢١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺯﺍﺤﻤﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪٨-٣‬‬
‫‪٢٥‬‬ ‫ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﺎﺒﻕ‬ ‫‪٩-٣‬‬
‫‪٢٦‬‬ ‫‪ ١٠-٣‬ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﻭﺓ ﺍﻝﺜﻨﺎﺌﻲ ﺫﻭ ﻋﺘﺒﺔ ‪O‬‬
‫‪٢٧‬‬ ‫‪ ١١-٣‬ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺴﻴﻐﻤﻭﻨﺩ ﺍﻝﺜﻨﺎﺌﻲ‬
‫‪٢٨‬‬ ‫‪ ١٢-٣‬ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺴﻴﻐﻤﻭﻨﺩ ﺜﻨﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٩‬‬ ‫‪ ١٣-٣‬ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﻠﻭﺠﺴﺘﻲ‬
‫‪٣٠‬‬ ‫‪ ١٤-٣‬ﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﻏﻭﺹ‬
‫‪٣١‬‬ ‫‪ ١٥-٣‬ﺸﻌﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﻴﺎﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻬﺭﺱ ﺍﻷﺸﻜﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻝﺼﻔﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺸﻜل‬
‫‪٣٥‬‬ ‫‪ ١٦-٣‬ﻗﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺎﻓﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٣٧‬‬ ‫‪ ١٧-٣‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫‪٣٩‬‬ ‫‪ ١٨ -٣‬ﺍﻝﻤﺨﻁﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻬﺠﻲ ﻝﻺﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻔﻲ‬
‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫‪ ١٩-٣‬ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ ﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺸﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺨﻠﻔﻲ ﺒﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﺨﻔﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‬
‫‪٤٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٢٠-٣‬ﺴﻁﺢ ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﺒﻌﺎﺩ‬

‫‪٦‬‬
‫‪٦٧‬‬ ‫‪ ١ -٤‬ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ‬
‫‪٦٨‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ‬ ‫‪٢-٤‬‬
‫‪٧٠‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺎﻝﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ‬ ‫‪٣-٤‬‬
‫‪٧٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ‬ ‫‪٤-٤‬‬
‫‪٨١‬‬ ‫‪ ٥-٤‬ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ ﻝﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ‬
‫‪٨٣‬‬ ‫‪ ٦-٤‬ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺩﻗﺔ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ‬
‫‪٨٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٧-٤‬ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻤﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ‬
‫‪٨٧‬‬ ‫‪ ٨-٤‬ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺒﺔ ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ ﻝﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﺔ‬
‫‪١٢١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬ ‫‪١-٥‬‬
‫‪١٢١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ‬ ‫‪٢-٥‬‬
‫‪١٢٣‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻝﻠﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪٣-٥‬‬
‫‪١٢٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻝﻺﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪٤-٥‬‬

‫‪٧‬‬
 ‫
س ااول‬
‫‪LIST OF TABLES‬‬

‫ا‬ ‫ا ان‬ ‫اول‬

‫‪٥٩‬‬ ‫ا‪"#$%‬ن ا ص  اا اة  آ‪ ).‬و إ‪( )"*+‬ر&‬ ‫‪١-٤‬‬

‫"‪ 2‬ا(ب ‪.‬‬
‫‪٦١‬‬ ‫‪ 45+‬ا‪"#$%‬ن ا ص  اا اة  آ‪ ).‬و إ‪( )"*+‬ر&‬ ‫‪٢-٤‬‬
‫"‪ 2‬ا(ب ‪.‬‬
‫‪٦٣‬‬ ‫*‪9‬ء ‪ )6" 7‬ا(ر& ارو‪. )$‬‬ ‫‪٣-٤‬‬
‫‪٦٦‬‬ ‫ارا‪ )$‬ا@ﺡ?‪( )"5‬ر& ﺡ=< ‪ )" +‬ا; ل ا‪A.6‬ة ‪.‬‬ ‫‪٤-٤‬‬
‫‪٨٧‬‬ ‫ﺕ?‪ D"6‬ا"‪6‬ت ارو‪ )" + <= )$‬ﺕ) ا(وع ‪.‬‬ ‫‪٥-٤‬‬
‫‪٩٠‬‬ ‫اا اة  آ‪ ).‬و إ‪ )"*+‬ا(وع ‪.‬‬ ‫‪١-٥‬‬
‫‪٩١‬‬ ‫ﺕ?‪ D"6‬اا اة  آ‪ ).‬و إ‪ )"*+‬ا(وع ‪.‬‬ ‫‪٢-٥‬‬
‫‪٩٦‬‬ ‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة ‪G‬ر& وﺡات و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪٣-٥‬‬
‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪٩٧‬‬ ‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة =‪ M‬وﺡات و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪٤-٥‬‬
‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪٩٨‬‬ ‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة ‪N‬ن وﺡات و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪٥-٥‬‬
‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪٩٩‬‬ ‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة ( وﺡات و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪٦-٥‬‬
‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة ‪( O6‬ة وﺡة و‬ ‫‪٧-٥‬‬
‫‪%‬ت ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة ‪G‬ر) ( وﺡة و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪٨-٥‬‬
‫‪١٠١‬‬ ‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة =) (ة وﺡة و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪٩-٥‬‬
‫‪١٠٢‬‬ ‫ﺕ‪).  L‬‬
‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة ‪( O+N‬ة وﺡة و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪١٠-٥‬‬
‫‪١٠٣‬‬ ‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة (‪ 7‬وﺡة و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪١١-٥‬‬
‫‪١٠٤‬‬ ‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة ‪ 7"6‬و (‪ 7‬وﺡة و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪١٢-٥‬‬
‫‪١٠٥‬‬ ‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪ 45+‬ﺕر< ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة ‪G‬ر& و (‪ 7‬وﺡة و ل‬ ‫‪١٣-٥‬‬
‫‪١٠٦‬‬ ‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬
‫‪ 45+‬ا‪%‬ت ارو‪ )"K"P )$‬ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ )I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪ )".‬واﺡة و ‪%‬ت‬ ‫‪١٤-٥‬‬
‫‪١٠٧‬‬ ‫ﺕ‪. ).  L‬‬

‫‪٨‬‬
 ‫
س ااول‬
‫‪LIST OF TABLES‬‬

‫ا‬ ‫ا ان‬ ‫اول‬

‫‪ 45+ ١٥-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪ 7 DG‬أر&‬

‫‪١٠٨‬‬ ‫وﺡات ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ١٦-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪M$ 7 DG‬‬
‫‪١٠٩‬‬ ‫وﺡات ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ١٧-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪O+ 7 DG‬‬
‫‪١١٠‬‬ ‫وﺡات ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ١٨-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪( 7 DG‬‬
‫‪١١٠‬‬ ‫وﺡات ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ١٩-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪ 7 DG‬ا‪O6‬‬
‫‪١١٠‬‬ ‫ (ة وﺡة ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ٢٠-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪ 7 DG‬أر&‬
‫‪١١١‬‬ ‫ (ة وﺡة ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ٢١-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪M$ 7 DG‬‬
‫‪١١٢‬‬ ‫ (ة وﺡة ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ٢٢-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪O+ 7 DG‬‬
‫‪١١٣‬‬ ‫ (ة وﺡة ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ٢٣-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪7( 7 DG‬‬
‫‪١١٣‬‬ ‫وﺡة ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ٢٤-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪ 7 DG‬ا‪ 7"6‬و‬
‫‪١١٤‬‬ ‫ (‪ 7‬وﺡة ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ٢٥-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬آ ‪ )I#J‬ﺕ‪ 7 DG‬أر& و‬
‫‪١١٤‬‬ ‫ (‪ 7‬وﺡة ﺥ‪ ).  L"S & )".‬ل ا‪. L‬‬
‫‪١١٦‬‬ ‫‪ 45+ ٢٦-٥‬ا‪%‬ت ارو‪ )"K"P )$‬ا(‪ )K#‬ا‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K‬ﺥ‪. 7"".‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ٢٧-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬ﺕ‪ DG‬ا‪ )I#T‬ا;و ‪ 7‬ا‪7"6‬‬
‫و (‪ 7‬وﺡة ﺥ‪ & )".‬د وﺡات ‪ )I#T "U‬ا‪ ) )"S & )"+N‬ل‬
‫‪١١٧‬‬ ‫ا‪= L‬و) ل ‪٠.٨‬‬
‫‪ 45+ ٢٨-٥‬ﺕر< ﺵ‪ 7"I#J 7 )+K )"#? )K#‬ﺥ‪ 7"".‬ﺕ‪ DG‬ا‪ )I#T‬ا‪7 )"+N‬‬
‫ (‪ 7‬وﺡة ﺥ‪ & )".‬د وﺡات ‪ )I#T "U‬ا;و & ‪ ) )"S‬ل‬
‫‪١١٨‬‬ ‫ا‪= L‬و) ل ‪٠.٨‬‬
‫‪١٢٠‬‬ ‫‪ ٢٩-٥‬ا‪ L"I‬ا‪( )"I"I‬ر& وا‪ L"I‬ا‪6‬ﺕ‪ 7 )W‬اﺥ‪#‬ر ا(‪)K#‬‬
‫‪١٢٢‬‬ ‫‪ ٣٠-٥‬ا ‪ GT‬ا‪ 7" O#=6‬ا‪ ).K‬ا‪ )"I"I‬وا‪ ).K‬ا‪6‬ﺕ‪ 7 )W‬ا‪%‬ﺥ‪#‬ر‬
‫‪١٢٤‬‬ ‫‪ ٣١-٥‬ا ‪ GT‬ا‪ 7" O#=6‬ا@‪ )"*+‬ا‪ )"I"I‬وا@‪ )"*+‬ا‪6‬ﺕ‪ 7 )W‬ا‪%‬ﺥ‪#‬ر‬
‫‪١٣١‬‬ ‫‪ (١) X‬ا‪+"#‬ت ا‪( )"I"I‬ر&  ا‪)W‬‬
‫‪١٤٣‬‬ ‫‪+" (٢) X‬ت ا(ر& ا= ) [‪ )6" O‬ا‪%‬ﺥ‪#‬ر‬

‫‪٩‬‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺨﺘﺼﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‬

• ANN: Artificial Neural Networks ‫ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
• ITNN: Instantaneously Trained Neural Networks
‫ﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﺍﻵﻨﻲ‬
• MAE: Mean Absolute Error ‫ﺍﻝﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﻠﻕ‬

• MSE: Mean Squared Error ‫ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ‬

• PE: Processing Element ‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ‬

• RBF: Radial Basis Function ‫ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺸﻌﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ‬

• RMSE: Root Mean Squared Error

‫ﺠﺫﻭﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁﺎﺕ ﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ‬

• RNs: Recurrent Neural Networks ‫ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﻴﺔ‬
• SNNs: Spiking Neural Networks ‫ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﻭﻜﻴﺔ‬

١٠
 ‫ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻷﻭل‬
‫‪Introduction‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻭﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺨﺎﺹ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ ﺍﻝﺼﻌﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺴﺔ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻝﻜﺜﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻠﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻼﻓﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻵﺨﺭ ) ﻤﺜل ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻁﻘﺱ ﻭﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺒﺔ ﻭﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ (‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺘﻪ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﻤﺩﺓ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻀﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺯﻴل ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭل‪،‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻭ ﺠﻬﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺠﺎﻨﺒﻪ‪،‬ﻓﺎﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭل ﻴﻀﻊ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﺩﻭل ﺍﻝﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺭﻭﺡ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﻤﺎﻝﻙ ﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻨﺘﻪ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺴﻭﻕ ﻭ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺎﺘﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺁﻝﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻋﻤﺎل ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻴﻀﻴﻑ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻭﺩ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻝﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺭﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﺠﺩﹰﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭل ﺴﻴﻔﺸل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‬
‫ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻝﺨﺴﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻭﻗﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﺠﻬﺩ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺎل ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﺃﻨﻔﻘﻪ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﺤﻀﻴﺭ ﻝﻪ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﺒﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻗﺼﺔ)ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ( ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺭﺒﺤﻪ ﺴﺘﻘل ﺃﻭ ﺭﺒﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻝﻥ ﻴﺭﺒﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻁﻼﻕ ﻭﺴﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﻋﺎﺠﺯﹰﺍ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺨﻠﻕ‬
‫ﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﺃﻭ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻀﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻨﺯﻴل ﻻ‬
‫ﺘﺘﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻭﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻔﺫﺓ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻱ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ )ﻤﻬﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﺎل ـ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﺎل ـﺎﻝﻤﻭﺍﺩ ـ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ـﺎﻝﻁﻘﺱ ـﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺒﺔ‪ (......‬ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺯﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﻭﺍﻝﺯﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻔﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﺄﺨﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻏﺭﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺘﺄﺨﻴﺭ ﻗﺩ‬
‫ﺘﻀﺭ ﺒﺎﻝﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻔﺫﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻭﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻝﺩﻗﻴﻕ ﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ ﻤﻬﻤﺎ ﺍﺨﺘﻠﻔﺕ ﺍﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪١١‬‬
 ‫‪ ١-١‬ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﺤﺙ ‪The Need for Research :‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻼﻓﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻵﺨﺭ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺯﻤﻥ‬
‫ﻵﺨﺭ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺒﺎﻋﺩ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﺘﺭﺘﺎ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ‬
‫ﻭﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‪،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻜﻠﻪ ﺸﻜل ﺘﺤﺩﻴﹰﺎ‬
‫ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﹰﺎ ﻝﻠﻤﻘﺎﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﺫﻝﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﻫﻡ ﺒﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻀﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺯﻴل ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﻭﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻗﺩ ﻻ ﻴﺴﺘﻁﻴﻌﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻜﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻝﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺄﺨﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻘﻴﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻭ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ﻭ ﺍﻝﻐﺎﻝﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻅﻤﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﻻ ﻴﺘﺒﻌﻭﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﺤﺩﺩﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻨﻭﻋﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻝﻌﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﺴﻬﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺸﻤل ﻜل ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ‬
‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻷﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ﻭﺠﺯﺀ ﻝﻔﻅﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻝﺫﻝﻙ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﻝﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻴﺤﺩﺩ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺴﻬﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ‪The Objectives of the Research :‬‬ ‫‪٢-١‬‬
‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻝﺔ ﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺇﺤﺩﻯ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻜﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤل ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺯ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .١‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﺒﺄﺨﺫ ﺸﺭﻴﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺘﻲ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺩﻴﻨﺘﻲ ﺤﻤﺹ‬
‫ﻭﺤﻤﺎﻩ ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺫﻜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل )ﺍﻝﻁﻘﺱ – ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺒﺔ – ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ – ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻤﺎل ‪ -‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﺭﺩﻴﺎﺕ – ﻋﻤﻕ ﺍﻝﺤﻔﺭ ‪(......‬‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﻭﻀﻊ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻝﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺸﺒﻜﻲ ﻋﺼﺒﻭﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺼﻨﻌﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻋﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﻤﺩ ‪‬ﺭﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ‪.‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺴﻴﻤ ﹼﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭل ﺍﻝﺫﻱ ﻻ ﺘﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﻝﺩﻴﻪ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺭﻴﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻪ ﺒﻴﺴﺭ ﻭﺴﻬﻭﻝﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ٣-١‬ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ‪Research Assumptions :‬‬
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ﺇﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻫﻲ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻤﻨﻔﺫﺓ ﻝﺩﻯ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺤﻤﺹ ﻭﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺤﻤﺎﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺘﻠﺯﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻫﻲ ﺇﻤﺎ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ‬

‫‪١٢‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﻨﺎﻗﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺩﺭﺍﺝ ﻋﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺘﺸﻤل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ‬
‫ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺘﻤﺩﻴﺩ ﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﺨﺯﺍﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﹰﺎ ‪.‬‬
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ﺇﻥ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ ﺘﺘﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ) ‪ ( ٢١ – ١‬ﻤﻠﻴﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻝﻴﺭﺓ ﺴﻭﺭﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﻻ ﺘﻨﺘﻤﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺎل‪.‬‬
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ﺇﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻜﻠﻬﺎ ﻤﻠﺯﻤﺔ ﻝﻤﺘﻌﻬﺩﻱ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺹ ‪.‬‬
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ﺍﻝﻘﺴﺎﻁل ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﻭﺴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﻗﺴﺎﻁل ﺍﻝﺒﻭﻝﻲ ﺇﻴﺘﻴﻠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺒﺄﻗﻁﺎﺭ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪The Contents‬‬ ‫‪ ٤-١‬ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺴﺘﺔ ﻓﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻷﻭل ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬

‫ﻴﻘﺩﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﺤﺙ ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻭﺃﻫﻤﻴﺘﻪ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺇﻝﻴﻪ ﻭﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﺭﻭﺱ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺎﻭﻝﺕ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺘﻪ‪،‬ﻭﺍﻷﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻜﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻝﺤل ﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻝﺙ ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺸﺭﺡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻭﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﻋﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﻤﺴﺘﻌﺭﻀﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻫﻴﻜﻠﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻜﻭﻨﺔ ﻝﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺤل ﺍﻝﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻝﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﺒﺘﺩﺍﺀﹰﺍ ﺒﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ‪،‬ﻓﺎﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﺜﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﻊ ﺸﺭﺡ ﻜﺎﻤل ﻝﺨﻭﺍﺭﺯﻤﻴﺔ ﻜل ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺤل ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﻡ ﻴﺸﺭﺡ ﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﻜﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻁﺒﻘﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻁﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻭﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺒﺘﺩﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻴﺴﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺒﻌﺽ ﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻊ ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺸﺭﺡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﻋﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻜل ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ‪،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺼﻤﻴﻡ ﻭﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ‬

‫‪١٣‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭﻝﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻔﺫﻴﻥ ﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ‪،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺸﺭﺡ ﻜل ﻋﺎﻤل ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ‬
‫ﺃﺤﺩ ﺍﻹﺩﺨﺎﻻﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺨﺎﻤﺱ ‪ :‬ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺸﺒﻜﻲ ﻋﺼﺒﻭﻨﻲ ﻝﻠﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ‬
‫ﻴﺸﻤل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﺒﺤﺙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺍﻗﺘﺭﺍﺡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﻝﺤل ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺭﺍﺒﻊ ﻜﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺩﺨل ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل‬
‫ﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺔ‪.‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻤﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻭﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺠﻤﻌﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻤﻨﻔﺫﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺘﻲ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺤﻤﺹ ﻭﺤﻤﺎﻩ ‪.‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺘﺠﺭﻴﺏ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺼﻤﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ) ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻝﻁﺒﻘﺎﺕ – ﺘﻭﺍﺒﻊ ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺸﻴﻁ – ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻝﺘﻌﻠﻴﻡ‬
‫– ﻋﺩﺩ ﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ‪ (..‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﻝﻠﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻷﺼﻐﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺴﺘﻭﻀﻊ ﻗﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺩﺱ ‪ :‬ﺍﻝﺨﺎﺘﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻴﺸﻤل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻝﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻝﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻜﺈﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻝﺤل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﻭﻫﻲ ﻤﺴﺄﻝﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭل ﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻹﻤﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻤﻴﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩﻩ ﻓﻲ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻀﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻨﺯﻴل ﺃﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺴﻌﺭ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻴﺤﻘﻕ ﻝﻪ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﻝﻠﻔﻭﺯ ﺒﺎﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻤﻊ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺭﺒﺢ ﺠﻴﺩ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﺩﻡ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻝﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻝﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺎﺕ ﻝﻸﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻤﺠﺎل ‪.‬‬
‫‪Appendix‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺤﻕ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴﺤﻭﻱ ﺍﻝﺒﺤﺙ ﻤﻠﺤﻘﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .١‬ﺠﺩﻭل ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻤﺕ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﺍﻝﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫‪References‬‬ ‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬

‫‪١٤‬‬
 ‫ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﺍﻝﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﺍﻝﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬

‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺤﺎﻓﻅﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻝﺫﻜﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻤﺘﻼﻙ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻗﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻨﺒﺜﻕ ﻁﺭﻕ ﻭﺨﻭﺍﺭﺯﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺤﺎﺴﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻭﺍﺤﻲ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤل ﺍﻝﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﻜﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺤل‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺜل ﻭﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻭﺤل ﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻝﻬﻴﺩﺭﻭﻝﻭﺠﻴﺎ‪.‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﻤﺠﺎل‬
‫ﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻝﻬﺎﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺔ‪،‬ﻭﻝﻜﻥ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻝﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺭﻭﻓﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ‬
‫ﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻼﺀﻤﺔ ﺍﻝﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﺎﺭﺍﻤﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺩﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺘﻭﻓﺭﺓ‪،‬ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﺍﻝﻘﺎﺩﻡ‪،‬ﻭﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻝﺠﺭﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻁﺤﻲ‬
‫ﻝﻬﻁﻭل ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺭ‪،‬ﻭﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺎﻩ‪،‬ﻭﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻔﺭﻴﻎ ﻭﻤﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺼﺎﻝﺢ ﻝﻠﺸﺭﺏ‪،‬ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻕ‬
‫ﻭﻨﻘل ﺍﻝﺭﻭﺍﺴﺏ‪،‬ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺀ ‪.........‬ﻭﻫﻠﻡ ﺠﺭﺍ‪.‬‬
‫ﺴﻨﻭﺭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻝﻔﺼل ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺒﺤﺎﺙ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻝﺫﻜﺎﺀ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤل ﻤﺴﺎﺌل ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺀ ﻝﺠﻤﺎﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻝﻴﺱ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺴﻬﻠﺔ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻋﻭﺍﻤل‬ ‫‬
‫ﺒﺤﺙ ﺍﻝﻌﺎﻝﻡ )‪ Aafjes etat.(١٩٩٧‬ﺘﻭﻗﻌﹰﺎ ﻗﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺠﻤﺎﻋﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺎﺀ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ‬
‫‪ ANN‬ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺨﺒﻴﺭ ﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺘﻭﻝﻴﻔﺔ ﻤﻥ ‪ ANN‬ﻭﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺨﺒﻴﺭ ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﻝﺴﻨﺘﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻝﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪[٢] .‬‬
‫ ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺀ ﻫﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻻﺨﻁﻴﺔ ﺇﻝﻰ ﺤﺩ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ‪ANN‬‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻝﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺘﺨﺜﹼﺭ –ﺍﻝﺘﻨﺩ‪‬ﻑ‪ -‬ﺍﻝﺘﺭﺴ‪‬ﺏ ﻭﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻝﺠﺭﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﻴﻤﻴﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺜﺎﻝﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺒﺎﺭﺍﻤﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺠﻭﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﻭﺍﺭﺩﺓ ﻭﺫﻝﻙ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل‬
‫) ‪[٢] (Zhang &Staney,١٩٩٩‬‬
‫ ﺘﻡ ﺒﺤﺙ ﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﺴﻭﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﺎﺀ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻬﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻝﻨﻬﺭ ﺍﻝﻨﻴل ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺭ )‪ (Atiya et at.١٩٩٩‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻝﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻝﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻝﻨﻬﺭﻱ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬

‫‪١٥‬‬
‫ ﻴﻨﺼﺢ ﺍﻝﻤﻘﺎﻭل ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻪ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﻤﻘﺔ ﻝﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻝﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻝﻜﺎﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻝﺠﻬﺔ ﺼﺎﺤﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻝﻌﻤل ‪.‬‬
‫ ﻨﻘﺘﺭﺡ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻭﻋﺩ ﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻝﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺸﺩﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﻁﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻴﺅﺨﺫ‬
‫ﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻝﺯﻤﻥ ﺍﻝﻼﺯﻡ ﻝﻠﺘﻘﺩﻡ ﻭﺍﻝﺘﺼﺩﻴﻕ ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻌﻘﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺜﻤﻥ ﺇﻀﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻤﺎ ﺃﻤﻜﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ ﺍﻝﺘﻐﺫﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻝﺩﺍﺌﻤﺔ ﻝﻠﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺍﻝﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺇﻝﻰ ﻋﻴﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻝﺘﺩﺭﻴﺏ ﻭﺒﺎﻝﺘﺎﻝﻲ ﺠﻌل ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺔ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺁﻝﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻫﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺍﻝﺸﺭﺏ ﻜﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻁﺭﻕ ﻭ ﺍﻝﻤﺒﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻝﺴﻜﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻝﺴﻴﺎﺤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﺓ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺜﻴﻕ ﻝﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻝﻘﻁﺭ ﺒﻐﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻝﻠﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪١٣٩‬‬
 ‫ﺍﻝﻤﻼﺤﻕ‬
‫‪ .١‬ﻤﻠﺤﻕ)‪ (١‬ﺍﻝﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻝﻠﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻝﻤﻌﺎﻝﺠﺔ‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﻤﻠﺤﻕ)‪ (٢‬ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻝﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻴﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬

‫‪١٤٠‬‬
 REFERENCES :‫ﺍﻝﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
.‫ ﺃﺭﺸﻴﻑ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺔ ﻤﻴﺎﻩ ﺤﻤﺹ‬.١
"‫ ﺍﻝﻤﺤﺭﺯ ﻨﺫﻴﺭ ﺤﺴﻥ "ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻝﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬.٢
‫ "ﺍﻝﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻝﻌﻨﺎﻭﻴﻥ ﺍﻝﺒﺭﻴﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬٢٠٠٦ ‫ﺸﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺠﻭﺩﺍ‬.‫ﺸﺫﺍ ﺤﻤﺎﺩ‬.‫ ﺒﺸﺭﻯ ﺴﻌﺎﺩﺍﺕ‬.٣
.‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺙ‬،‫ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻭﻨﻴﺔ" ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻭﻉ ﺘﺨﺭﺝ‬
.‫("ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻝﺒﻌﺙ‬١) ‫"ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻝﻤﺸﺭﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺘﻬﺎ‬.‫ﻡ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﻤﺎﻫﺭ ﺍﻝﺠﻭﺩﻱ‬.‫ ﺩ‬.‫ﻡ ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺸﻌﺒﺎﻥ‬.‫ ﺩ‬.٤
‫ﺍﻝﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﺎﺕ" ﺩﺍﺭ‬،‫ﺍﻝﺨﻭﺍﺭﺯﻤﻴﺎﺕ‬،‫ﺍﻝﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﻬﻨﺩﺴﻴﺔ‬،‫ "ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ‬٢٠٠٠‫ ﻋﻴﺴﻰ ﻋﻼﻡ ﺯﻜﻲ‬.٥
.‫ﺸﻌﺎﻉ‬
‫ "ﺘﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻓﺭﺼﺔ ﺍﻝﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺸﺭﻭﻉ ﻫﻨﺩﺴﻲ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻝﺸﺒﻜﺎﺕ‬٢٠٠٤ ‫ﻤﻲ ﺼﻭﻓﺎﻥ‬.‫ ﻡ‬.٦
.‫ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺘﺸﺭﻴﻥ‬،‫ﺍﻝﻌﺼﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻝﺼﻨﻌﻴﺔ"ﺭﺴﺎﻝﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ‬
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Productivity Using Neural Networks " Seventh Interntional
Colloquium On Structural and Geotechnical Engineering, ١٧-١٩
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Engineering;Principles and Understanding" Journal of Computing
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٩. Freeman, J. A. and Skapury, D. M. ١٩٩١"Neural
Networks,Algorithm,Applications,and Programing Techniques"
"Aetificial Neural Networks For Civil Engineers.Fundumentals and
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١٠. Hanna, A. S., Russel, J. S., Taha, M. A., and Park, S. C. ١٩٩٧ "
Application of Neural Networks To Owner – Gontractor
Prequalification" Published in the ASCE Second Monograph on
Application of Artificial Neural Networks in Civil Engineers.
١١. Hegazy, T. and Ayed, A. " Neural Network Model for Parametric
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١٩٩٨, PP:٢١٠-٢١٨.
١٢. Hojjat, A. and Wu, M. " Regularization Neural Network for
Construction Estimation " Journal of Construction Engineering and
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