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1.

Macroeconomic

1.2 Economic growth

According to Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) forecast, in 2019, Vietnam's GDP is


forecast to increase by 6.7%, belonging to a high group globally.

2018 end with special achievements in Vietnam's economic development, with economic
growth reaching 7.08%. This is the highest level in 11 years and makes Vietnam a country
among the highest growth countries in the region and the world. This result comes from the
processing and manufacturing industry with a growth rate of 12.98%, as well as the highest
increase of the agricultural sector reaching 3.76% in the period 2012-2018.

In addition, the external sector also established a new growth record with total import-export
turnover of over USD 482 billion and trade surplus of USD 7.2 billion (up 147% compared to
2017). At the same time, the state budget collection area reached a remarkable milestone when
Vietnam exceeded the budget revenue for the first time compared to the estimated 3.5 billion
USD.
1.2 Inflation

The above growth figures are created by a stable macroeconomic foundation, 3-year
inflation is constantly under control, stable under 4%. The graph above shows the good use of
the monetary and fiscal policies so that Vietnamese government can tighten the inflation rate
down to 0.63% in 2015 although the percentage was absolutely higher in 2012 due to the finance
crisis and the public debt of EU. And then stably maintain below 4% and the inflation rate in
2018 was 3.8%
1.3. Industry stock price fluctuations in 2018

The financial market was fluctuated in 2018. It is the consequence of many events in 2018
such as the Brexit or the US-China trade war. factors such as exchange rates and interest rates
fluctuated in 2018. This has made investors in the stock market became much more cautious, and
risk aversion has become popular. Things had changed dramatically compared to 2017, above is
the Industry stock price fluctuations in 2018 and we can see clearly that non-essential consumer
goods sectors and real estate have growth at 7.2%. and 4.1%, the rest of the sectors are down, in
which utilities, industry, health care and energy have a decrease over 20%

According to National Center for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF),


positive growth results in 2018 are favorable conditions to create momentum for growth for 2019
in the context of macroeconomic stability and liquidity. The banking system is guaranteed. The
basic exchange rate is still in the monitoring ability of the State Bank.

2. Industry analysis:
2.1 Characteristics of securities industry:

Differences between securities companies' activities and other types of businesses in other
fields include:

+ Characteristics of capital. For companies operating in the fields of production and business,
trade in services, the requirements of the law on capital for the establishment of companies are
not available. However, for securities companies, securities companies wishing to establish must
meet the legal capital requirements stipulated by law.

+ Characteristics of personnel. Securities companies' employees must have university or higher


degree in banking, finance or securities market, have professional ethics and have a practicing
certificate granted by a competent agency.

+ Characteristics of the leadership team. For the securities sector, in addition to the basic
requirements, the leadership team at securities companies must also have a practicing certificate
and must have a representative license issued by a competent agency.

+ Characteristics of technical facilities. Characteristics of securities trading activities are the need
for a trading floor. Besides, the technical facilities of the company system of modern equipment
to serve the process of transmission of customers, notice the transaction results as well as help
customers check account balances or look for information…

+ Characteristics of conflicts of interest between the interests of customers and securities


companies

2.2 Industry development prospects:

Stock market outlook is still positive:

In February 2019, the Government approved a plan to restructure the stock market, with the
aim of raising the scale and upgrading the market.

Mr. Lu Hui Hung, Director of Analysis and Self-Investment Division, Phu Hung Securities
Company (PHS) said that this year, Vietnam's stock market is unlikely to be upgraded by MSCI
but the upcoming evaluation of MSCI will have a positive effect on the market. Currently,
Vietnam is trying to amend the Securities Law, deploying new securities products, removing
barriers to foreign investment ownership.

On the macroeconomic indicators, VCBS said that GDP growth in 2019 will continue to be
maintained at 6.6% - 6.8%. The government has many policies to support growth targets at a
reasonable level. In 2018, the number of state-owned enterprises equitizing in association with
bringing stocks to the floor is limited, so in 2019, this business sector will continue to "perform
its duties" to sell the State capital and go to the floor, making the stock market scale likely to
continue to increase strongly.
2.3 Market share:

Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HoSE) has just announced the brokerage market share,
fund certificates and bonds of the first quarter of 2019.
SSI regained the No. 1 position from Ban Viet (VCSC) with a market share of 14.54%.
Meanwhile, VCSC after the fourth quarter of 4/2018 with a market share of up to 17.04% has
returned to the 3rd position with the market share of 10.05%.
HSC continued to be ranked second in brokerage market share and fund certificate market
share in the first quarter of 2019 with 10.82%; while VNDIRECT (VND) ranked 4th with 7.75%
market share.
Thus, SSI, HSC, VCSC and VND hold a total of 43.16% of HoSE stock and fund brokerage
market share in the first quarter of 2019. This is also the 4 securities companies that often hold
the position in the top 4 largest market shares.
2.4 Competition among securities companies:
Recently, the Ministry of Finance has officially issued a decision to abolish securities
brokerage fees. This move is expected to make the securities industry more differentiated in the
coming time. The abolition of fees is expected to lead to competition for brokerage fees in the
near future.
The number of securities companies in the market will narrow down to 20 companies. With
this context, the advantages belong to companies with good trading platforms, technological
advantages and low capital costs, they will proactively offer free transaction packages to capture
market share to attract a large number of individual customers with low capital scale as well as
constant customer or trading volume.
In addition, this is also an advantage of securities companies with foreign investment because
this is the key point to gain more market share on the foundation of abundant capital and long-
range strategy. These are companies like Vietnam Mirae Asset Securities, Yuanta Vietnam,
Maybang Kimeng and KB ...
2.5 Business Risk

• Macro economy with many uncertainties has had negative impacts on stock prices. In addition,
companies have to face many difficulties in production and business, causing stock prices to
decline. The volatility of stock prices greatly affected the company's transactions.
• Competition in the financial sector is increasingly harsh with the 100% foreign-owned financial
companies and investment funds.
• Besides market risks are internal risks, in system administration, human resource management
risks. The trend of high-level human resource transfer remains a major challenge for
organizations, especially enterprises in the financial industry.