Chapter 05 - Probability

Chapter 5
Probability
5.1 a. S = {(V,B), (V,E), (V,O), (M,B), (M,E), (M,O), (A,B), (A,E), (A,O)}
b.Events are not equally likely. Barnes and Noble probably carries more books than other
merchandise.
Learning Objective: 05-1

5.2 a. S = {(S,L), (S,T), (S,B), (P,L), (P,T), (P,B), (C,L), (C,T), (C,B)}
b. There are different likelihoods of risk levels among the 3 types of business forms;
therefore the different elementary events will have different probabilities.
Learning Objective: 05-1

5.3 a. S = {(L,B), (L,B’), (R,B), (R,B’)}

b. Events are not equally likely. There are more right handed people than left handed
people.
Learning Objective: 05-1

5.4 a. S ={(1,H), (2,H), (3,H), (4,H), (5,H), (6,H), (1,T), (2,T), (3,T), (4,T), (5,T), (6,T)}
b. Yes, assuming that we have a fair die and fair coin.
Learning Objective: 05-1

5.5 Subjective (opinion of experienced stock brokers) or Empirical (based on previous IPOs)
Learning Objective: 05-2

5.6 Subjective(opinion of industry experts)

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.7 Empirical (based on previous launches)

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.8 Classical(equally likely dice roll outcomes)

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.9 Classical (each day of the year equally likely)

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.10 Empirical (results from a study)

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.11 Empirical (frequency based on observations)

Learning Objective: 05-2

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

5.12 Empirical (based on success of other new restaurants) or Subjective (opinion of business
experts in Nashville)
Learning Objective: 05-2

5.13 a. Not mutually exclusive, you can both work 20 hours or more and be an accounting
major.
b. Mutually exclusive,you cannot be born in Canada and in the United States. You have to
be one or the other.
c. Not mutually exclusive, you can own two different cars.
Learning Objective: 05-3

5.14 a. Collectively exhaustive, you have to be either a college grad, have been in college some,
orhave never attended college.
b. Not collectively exhaustive, you can be born somewhere besides the U.S., Canada, or
Mexico.
c. Collectively exhaustive, you have to either be a full-time student, a part-time student, or
not a student.
Learning Objective: 05-3

5.15 a. P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) = .4 + .5 − .05 = .85.

b.P(A | B) =P(AB) / P(B) = .05/.50 = .10.
c. P(B | A) =P(AB) / P(A) .05/.4 = .125.
d.
A and B
.05
A.35

B
.45

Learning Objective: 05-3

5.16 a.P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) = .7 + .3 – 0 = 1.0 .

b. P(AB) = P(AB) / P(B) = .00 / .30 = .00.
c.The intersection is an empty set becauseP(AB) = 0.

A
B
.7
.3

Learning Objective: 05-3

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

5.17 a.P(S) = .217.

b.P(S’) = 1 − .217 = .783.
c.Odds in favor of = P(S) / P(S’) =.217/.783 = .277.
d.Odds against S = P(S’) / P(S) = .783/.217 = 3.61
Learning Objective: 05-3
P(audit ) .017
5.18 a. Odds in favor of being audited: = = .0173 to 1
1 - P(audit ) 1 - .017
P(no audit ) .983
b. Odds in favor of not being audited: = = 57.82 to 1
1 - P(no audit ) .017
Learning Objective: 05-4

5.19 a.X = 1 if the drug is approved, 0 otherwise.

b.X = 1 if batter gets a hit, 0 otherwise.
c.X = 1 if breast cancer detected, 0 otherwise.
Learning Objective: 05-3

5.20 a. (admitted unconditionally, admitted conditionally, not admitted)

b. (completed pass, incomplete pass, intercepted pass)
c. (deposit, withdrawal, bill payment, funds transfer)
Learning Objective: 05-3

5.21 a.P(S’) = 1−.246. There is a 75.4% chance that a female aged 18-24 is a nonsmoker.
b.P(SC) = .246+ .830 − .232 = .844. There is an 84.4% chance that a female aged 18-
24 is a smoker or is Caucasian.
c.P(S | C) = .232/.830 = .2795.Given that the female aged 18-24 is a Caucasian, there is a
27.95% chance that they are a smoker.
d.P(SC’) = P(S) – P(S C) = .246 − .232 = .014. P(S | C’) = .014/.17 = .0824. Given
that the female aged 18-24 is not Caucasian, there is an 8.24% chance that she
smokes.
Learning Objective: 05-3

5.22 P(AB) = P(A) ×P(B) = .40×.50 =0.20

Learning Objective: 05-5

5.23 a. P(AB) = P(AB) / P(B) = .05/.50 = .10

b. No, A and B are not independent becauseP(AB) ≠P(A).
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.24 a. P(A) ×P(B) = .40×.60 =.24 and P(A B) = .24, therefore A and B areindependent.
b. P(A) ×P(B) = .90×.20 =.18 and P(A B) = .18, therefore A and B areindependent.
c.P(A) ×P(B) = .50×.70 =.35 and P(A B) = .25, therefore A and B are notindependent.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.25 a.P(VM)= P(V) + P(M) - P(VM) = .73 + .18 – .03 =.88.

b.P(VM) ≠ P(V)×P(M) therefore V and M are not independent.

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Chapter 05 - Probability

Learning Objective: 05-5

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

5.26 a. There is 25% chance that a clock will not wake Bob (a failure, F). Both clocks would
have to fail in order for him to oversleep. Assuming independence: P(F1F2) = P(F1)
× P(F2) = .25×.25 = .0625. There is a 6.25% chance that Bob will oversleep.
b. The probability that at least one of the clocks wakes Bobis 1 – (P(F1)×P(F2)×P(F3)) =
1- (.25×.25×.25) = .9844, which is less than 99%.
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.27 “Five nines” reliability means P(not failing)= .99999. P(power system failure)= 1 − (.05)3 =
.999875. The system does not meet the test.
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-5
P( Success �At least 60) .005
5.28 a. P(Success | Atleast 60) = = = .125 . There is a 12.5% chance
P( At least 60) .04
of success given that he or she is at least 60 years old.
b. P ( Success ) �P ( At least 60) = (.31)(.04) = .0124 which does not equal
P( Success �At least 60) = .005 therefore the two events are not independent.
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.29 Ordering a soft drink is independent of ordering a square pizza. P(ordering a soft
drink)×P(ordering a square pizza) = .5(.8) = .4. This is equal to P(ordering both a soft
drink and a square pizza).
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.30 a. P(a viewer is aged 18-34) = 69/100=.69

b. P(a viewer prefers watching TV videos) = 48/100=.48
c. P (a viewer is aged 18-34 and prefers watching user created videos) = 39/100=.39 or
39%
d. P(a viewer prefers user created videos |they are 18-34) =
P(User created �Age 18 - 34) .39
= = .5652 or 56.52%.
P( Age 18 - 34) .69

e.
P(aged 35 - 54 �User created ) =
P(aged 35 - 54) + P(User created ) - P (aged 35 - 54 �User created ) =

(.20+.52)–.10=.62 or 62%
Learning Objective: 05-6

5.31 a. P(Recycles) = 340/1000 = .34

b. P(Don’t Recycle | Lives in Deposit Law State) = 66/220= .30
c. P(Recycle and Live in Deposit Law State) = 154/1000 = .154
d. P(Recycle | Lives in Deposit Law State) = 154/220 = .70

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Chapter 05 - Probability

Learning Objective: 05-6

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

5.32 a. P(V) = 116/158 =.7342

b. P(A) = 47/158 = .2975
c. P(AV) = 32/158 = .2025
d. P(A V) = P(A) + P(V) - P(AV)= 47/158 + 116/158 – 32/158 = .8291
e. P(A | V) = P(VA) / P(V) = 32/116 = .2759
f. P(V | A) = P(VA) / P(A) = 32/47 = .6809
Learning Objective: 05-6

5.33 a. P(D) = 79/156 =.5064

b. P(R) = 22/156 = .1410
c. P(DR) = 8/156 = .0513
d. P(D R) = P(D) + P(R) - P(DR)= 79/156 + 22/156 – 8/158 = .5962
e. P(R | D) = P(RD) / P(D) = 8/79= .1013
f. P(R | P) = P(RP) / P(P) = 7/43 = .1628
Learning Objective: 05-6

5.34 a. P(A) = 100/200 = .50. There is a 50% chance that a student is an accounting major.
b. P(M) =102/200 = .51. There is a 51% chance that a student is male.
c. P(AM) = 56/200 = .28. There is a 28% chance that a student is a male accounting
major.
d. P(FS) = 24/200 = .12. There is a 12% chance that a student is a female statistics major.
e. P(A | M) = P(MA) / P(A)= 56 /102 = .549. There is 54.9% chance that a male student is
an accounting major.
f. P(A | F) = P(FA) / P(F)= (44/200)/(98/200) = .4490. There is a 44.9% chance that a
female student is an accounting major.
g. P(F | S) = P(FS) / P(S) (24/200) /(40/200) = .60. There is a 60% chance that a statistics
student is female.
h. P(E F) = P(E) + P(F) - P(FE) 60/200 + 98/100 – 30/100 = 128/200 = 64%. There
is 64% chance that a student is an economics major or a female.
Learning Objective: 05-6

5.35 Gender and Major are not independent. For example, P(AF) = .22. P(A)×P(F) = .245.
Because the values are not equal, the events are not independent.
Learning Objective: 05-5
Learning Objective: 05-6

5.36 a. P(D3) = 15/38 = .3947.

b. P(Y3) = 15/38 = .3947.
c. P(Y3 | D1) = P(Y3D1) / (D1) = (2/38)/(11/38) =.1818.Anotherwayis 2/11=.1818 because
the two 38s cancel eachother out.
d. P(D1 | Y3) = P(Y3D1) / P(Y3) = (2/38)/(15/38) =.1333. Another way is 2/15=.1333
because the two 38s cancel eachother out.
Learning Objective: 05-6

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

5.37

Learning Objective: 05-7

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

5.38 a.

Learning Objective: 05-7

5.39 Let A = using the drug. P(A) = .04. P(A’) = .96. Let T be a positive result.
False positive: P(T | A’) = .05.False negative: P(T’ | A) = .10.
P(T | A) = 1 − .10 = .90.
P(T) =P(T ∩ A) + P(T ∩ A’) = P(T | A)P(A)+ P(T | A’)P(A’)
=(.90)(.04) + (.96)(.05) = .084.
P(A | T) =P(T ∩ A) / P(T)= [P(T | A)P(A)] / P(T) = (.9)(.04)/.084 = .4286.
Learning Objective: 05-8

5.40 Given: P(A) = .5,P(B) = .5, P(D) = .04,P(ND) = .96,P(D|A) = .06. FindP(A|D).
P( D | A ) �P( A ) .06 �.5
P(A| D )= = = .75 .
P( D ) .04
Learning Objective: 05-8

5.41 Let W = suitcase contains a weapon. P(W) = .001. P(W’) = .999. Let A be the alarm trigger.
False positive: P(A | W’) = .02. False negative: P(A’ | W) = .02. P(A | W) = 1 − .02 = .
98.
P(A) =P(A ∩W) + P(A ∩ W’) = P(A |W)P(W)+ P(A | W’)P(W’)
= (.98)(.001) + (.999)(.02) = .02096.
P(W | A) = P(A ∩ W) / P(W) = [P(A | W)P(W)] / P(A) =(.98)(.001)/.02096 = .04676.
Learning Objective: 05-8

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

5.42 a. 8×7=56×6=336×5=1680×4=6720×3=20160×2=40320×1=40,320.
b. 32!=2.6313×1035
d. Google displays it more clearly but a calculator may be more accessible.
Learning Objective: 05-9

20!
5.43 a. 20C5= =15,504.
5!15!
Learning Objective: 05-9

n!
5.44 nCr = Given n= 31 and r=5: 31C5 = 169,911.P(picking the winner) = 1/169911 = .
r !( n - r )!
00000588.
Or using the hint given: There are 31×30×29×28×27 ways to pick the winning
combination. There are 5! permutations of those five numbers.
31�30 �29 �28 �27
= 169,911 . P(picking the winner) = 1/169911 = .00000589.
5!
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-9

5.45 a. 266 =308,915,776

b. 366 =2,176,782,336
c. 326 =1,073,741,824
Learning Objective: 05-9

5.46 a. 26×26×10×10×10×10 = 6,760,000 unique ids.

b. No, that only yields 26,000 unique ids.
c. As growth occurs over time, you would not have to worry about a duplicate id nor would
you have to generate new ones.
Learning Objective: 05-9

5.47 a. 106 = 1,000,000.

b. 105 = 100,000.
c. 106 = 1,000,000
Learning Objective: 05-9

n!
5.48 a. n P r = , Given n=4 andr= 4: 4P4 = 24.
( n - r )!
b. ABCD, ABDC, ACBD, ACDB, ADBC, ADCB, BACD, BADC, BCAD, BCDA, BDAC,
BDCA, CABD, CADB, CBAD, CBDA, CDBA, CDAB, DABC, DACB, DBAC,
DBCA, DCAB, DCBA
Learning Objective: 05-9

5.49 a. 7! = 5,040 ways.

b.No, too many!
Learning Objective: 05-9

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

8!
5.50 a.8P3 = = 336.
5!
8!
b. 8P5 = = 6720.
3!
8!
c. 8P1= = 8.
7!
8!
d. 8P8 = = 40320.
0!
Learning Objective: 05-9

8!
5.51 a. 8C3= = 56.
3!5!
8!
b. 8C5= = 56.
5!3!
8!
c. 8C1= = 8.
1!7!
8!
d. 8C8= = 1.
8!0!
Learning Objective: 05-9

n!
5.52 a. n P r = .Given n = 10 and r = 4: 10P4= 5040.
( n - r )!
n!
b. n C r = .Given n = 10 and r = 4: 4C4 = 210.
r !(n - r )!
c. The number of combinations is smaller than the number of permutations because order
doesn't matter and each combination is only counted once. If order mattered, we would
count the same combination in every order possible. For example, when order doesn't
matter the combination {Sales agent A, B, C, D} is the same as {Sales agent B, C, D,
A}.
Learning Objective: 05-9

5.53 Answers may vary

Learning Objective: 05-1
Learning Objective: 05-2
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.54 Answers may vary

Learning Objective: 05-1
Learning Objective: 05-2
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.55 Answers may vary

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

Learning Objective: 05-1

Learning Objective: 05-2
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.56 a. S = {Brown/Brown, Brown/Yellow, Brown/Red, Brown/Blue, Brown/Orange,

Brown/Green, Yellow/Brown, Yellow/Yellow, Yellow/Red, Yellow/Blue,
Yellow/Orange, Yellow/Green, Red/Brown, Red/Yellow, Red/Red, Red/Blue,
Red/Orange, Red/Green, Blue/Brown, Blue/Yellow, Blue/Red, Blue/Blue, Blue/Orange,
Blue/Green, Orange/Brown, Orange/Yellow, Orange/Red, Orange/Blue,
Orange/Orange, Orange/Green, Green/Brown, Green/Yellow, Green/Red, Green/Blue,
Green/Orange, Green/Green}.
b. P(BR)×P(BR) = .13×.13 = .0169.
c. P(BL)×P(BL) = .24×.24 = .0576.
d. P(G)×P(G) = .16×.16 = .0256.
e. P(BR)×P(G) = .13×.16 = .0208.
Learning Objective: 05-1
Learning Objective: 05-2
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.57 Empirical. These are most likely based on historical data.

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.58 The judge most likely has past information and could have easily calculated this
probability. Therefore, it is empirical.
Learning Objective: 05-2

5.59 Response frequencies from the survey would be used to calculate an empirical probability.
Learning Objective: 05-2

5.60 Subjective. Bob probably based this estimate on his swimming ability and success of others
who have completed this feat.
Learning Objective: 05-2

5.61 Empirical or subjective.Most likely estimated by interviewing ER doctors.

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.62 Empirical. From a sample of births in the U.S.

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.63 Subjective.Simulated experiment using a computer model.

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.64 104/118 = .8814

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.65 Empirical or subjective. Determined either by observation or survey.

Learning Objective: 05-2

5.66 Not independent. P(A) = .80, P(B) = .60. P(A)×P(B)=.80×.60 = .48 ≠ .40. Because .48
does not equal .40, these are not independent.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.67 The system won’t fail unless both fail and the chance that both servers fail is less than the
chance that one server fails. So the chance of failure has actually decreased.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.68 The odds that a lie will be detected are: P(lie detected)/[1-P(lie detected)]=.65/.35=1.8571
so the odds in favor of detecting a lie are 1.8571 to 1.
Learning Objective: 05-4

P (notstolen)
5.69 Odds against a 2004 Audi being stolen: = .987355/.012645 = 78 to 1.
P ( stolen)
Learning Objective: 05-4

P (notbeingstruck )
5.70 a. Odds against being struck by lightning: = .99984/.00016 = 6249 to 1.
P (beingstruck )
Learning Objective: 05-4

5.71 P(Butler making it to the NCAA finals) = 1/(200+1) = .005.

Learning Objective: 05-4

5.72 a. 29 = 512 separate codes.

b. (1/512)× 1000 = 1.95 times (approximately 2) or (1/1024)× 1000 = 0.977
(approximately 1). We assume that each combination is selected independently.
Learning Objective: 05-5
Learning Objective: 05-9

5.73 a. 263103 = 17,576,000.

b.366 = = 2,176,782,336.
c.0 and 1 might be disallowed because they are similar in appearance to letters like O and
I.
d.Yes, 2.1 billion unique plates should be enough.
e. 346 = 1,544,804,416.
Learning Objective: 05-9

5.74 Suppose the correct order for the meals is ABC. There are 6 possible permutations and the
possibilities for incorrect orders include: ACB (2 incorrect meals), BAC (2 incorrect
meals), BCA (3 incorrect meals), CAB (3 incorrect meals), and CBA (2 incorrect
meals).

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

a. P(No diner gets the correct meal) = 2/6 or 1/3

b. P(Exactly one diner gets the correct meal) = 3/6 or 1/2
c. P(Exactly two diners get the correct meal) = 0
d. P(All three diners get the correct meal) = 1/6
Learning Objective: 05-9

5.75 If the order in which students are selected for the teams matters then we would use a
permutation formula: 7P3 = 210. Most likely order does not matter so it would be a
combination of 7 things taking 3 at a time: 7C3 = 35.
Learning Objective: 05-9

5.76 a. The first 4 cards are aces: (4/52)(3/51)(2/50)(1/49) = 3.694E-06. The probability is very
close to 0%, highly unlikely.
b. There are 2,598,960 hands of five cards each (52C5).Each hand has a probability of
1/2598960 or 3.8477E-07. The sample space includes five hands: AAAAN, AAANA,
AANAA, ANAAA, and NAAAA. Therefore, the probability that any four of the five
cards are aces is 5× (3.8477E-07) = 1.9239E-06. Again, this is highly unlikely.
Learning Objective: 05-3

5.77 a. P(Two aces) = (4/52)(3/51) = 0.00452.

b. P(Two red cards) = (26/52)(25/51) = 0.245098.
c.P(Two red aces) = (2/52)(1/51) = 0.000754.
d. P(Two honor cards) = (20/52)(19/51) = 0.143288.
Learning Objective: 05-3

5.78 Let F denote a failure and S denote a non-failure. Use the multiplicative rule of probability
for independent events:
a. P(F1F2) = P(F1)×P(F2) = .02×.02 = .0004.
b. P(S1S2) = P(S1)×P(S2) = .98×.98 = .9604.
c. P ( F1 �F 2) = P( F1) + P ( F 2) - P ( F1 �F 2) = (.02 + .02) - .0004 = .0396 . Using the
General Law of Addition we can find the union of the first alternator failing or the
second alternator failing. That probability is 3.96%.
Learning Objective: 05-3
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.79 No, P(A)×P(B)= (.4)× (.5) ≠ .05.

Learning Objective: 05-5

5.80 Let B1 = first child is a boy and B2 = second child is a boy. Find P(B1B2 | B1).
P( B1 �B 2 )
P(B1B2 | B1) = . Because B1 and B2 are independent of each other:
P( B1 )
P( B1 �B 2 ) P( B1 )P( B 2 )
= = P( B 2 ) = .5
P( B1 ) P( B1 )

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

Learning Objective: 05-5

5.81 P(at least one gyro will operate) = 1 – P(both gyros will fail) = 1 – (.0008)2 = .99999936.
This is greater than .99999 so yes they’ve achieved “five-nines” reliability.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.82 a. Independent – gender of one baby doesn’t affect gender of another baby.
b. These are typically considered dependent. Insurance rates are higher for most men
because they are involved in more accidents.
c. Dependent - most calls would be either first thing in the day or during lunch hours. Many
folks will call as soon as the office opens because they are anxious to get their questions
answered. Or – some folks will call during the lunch hour because that is when they are
free to make calls.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.83 Assuming independence,P(3 cases won out of next 3)= .73 = .343.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.84 a. In order to guarantee 99.999% reliability, the probability of a system failure should be no
more than 0.00001. Because the servers are considered independent we can set up the
equation (.01)k = .00001. ln[(.01)k] = ln(.00001). k = ln(.00001)/ln(.01) = 2.5.Round up
to the next higher integer. 3 are required. P(system works) = 1 – P(system fails) = 1 –
(.01)3 = .999999 or 99.9999% reliability.
b. For P(a server failure) = .10, k = 5, so 5 servers are required.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.85 Assuming independence, P(4 adults say yes) = .564 = 0.0983.

Learning Objective: 05-5

5.86 a. P(fatal accident over a lifetime) = 1 − P(no fatal accident over a lifetime) = 1 −
(3,999,999/4,000,000)50,000= .012422. Over the average U.S. driver's lifetime, there is
a 1.24% chance of having a fatal accident.
b. Independence might not hold because young drivers are more prone to accidents and
very old drivers are more prone to accidents.
c. The probability of an accident each time you get behind the wheel is so small that an
individual might take the risk.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.87 See the Excel Spreadsheet in Learning Stats: 05-13 Birthday Problem.xls.
For 2 riders: P(no match) = .9973.
For 10 riders:P(no match) = 0.8831.
For 20 riders: P(no match) = 0.5886.
For 50 riders: P(no match) = 0.0296.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.88 See the Excel Spreadsheet in Learning Stats: 05-13 Birthday Problem.xls.

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

If there are 23 riders, P(match) = .50730.

If there are 32 riders, P(match) = .75.
Learning Objective: 05-5

5.89 a. i. P(C) = 193/400 = .4825. The probability of seeing a car in a shopping mall parking
lot is .4825.
ii. P(G) = 100/400 = .25. The probability of seeing a vehicle in the Great Lakes
shopping mall is .25.
iii. P(V | S) = 19/100 = .19. The probability of seeing a parked SUV at the Somerset
mall is .19.
iv. P(C | J) = 64/100 = .64. The probability of seeing a parked car at the Jamestown
mall is .64.
v. P(C and G) = 36/400 = .09. The probability that a parked vehicle is a car and is at the
Great Lakes mall is .09.
vi. P(T and O) = 6/400 = .015. The probability a parked vehicle is a truck and is at the
Oakland mall is .015.
b. Yes, the vehicle type and mall location are dependent.For example, P(T)×P(O) = (.115)
(.25) = .02875. P(T and O) = .015. Because .02875 ≠ .015, the events are dependent.
Learning Objective: 05-5
Learning Objective: 05-6

5.90 a. i. P(S) = 320/1000 = .32. The likelihood of a male 18-24 smoking is .32.
ii. P(W) =850/1000 = .85. The likelihood of a male 18-24 being white is .85.
iii. P(S | W) = P(S and W)/ P(W) = .29/.85 = .3412. The likelihood of a white male 18-
24 being a smoker is .3412.
iv. P(S | B) = P(S and B)/ P(B) = (30/1000)/(150/1000) = .200. The likelihood of a black
male 18-24 being a smoker is .20.
v. P(S and W) = 290/1000 = .290. The likelihood of a male 18-24 being a smoker and
being white is .290.
vi. P(N and B) = 120/1000 = .12 The likelihood of a male 18-24 not smoking and being
black is .12.
b. The P(S and W) = .29 and the P(S)*P(W) = .32*.85 = .272. The P(S and B) = .030 and
the P(B)*(S) = .32*.15 = .048. Yes, the smoking rates suggest that race and smoking are
dependent.
d. If smoking is dependent on race, then health officials might target or design special
programs based on race.
Learning Objective: 05-5
Learning Objective: 05-6

5.91 a. i. P(F-) = 19/34 = .5588. The probability that the forecasters predicted a decline in
interest rates is .5588.
ii. P(A+) = 18/34 = .5294. The probability there was a rise in interest rates is .5294.
iii. P(A- | F-) = 7/19 = .3684. Given that the forecasters predicted a decline in interest
rates, the probability that there was an actual decline is .3684.

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 Chapter 05 - Probability

iv. P(A+ | F+) = 6/15 = .4. Given that the forecasters predicted an increase in interest
rates, the probability that there was an actual increase is .4.
v. P(A+ and F+) = 6/34 = .1765. The probability that in a given year there was both a
forecasted increase and actual increase in interest rates is .1765.
vi. P(A-and F-) = 7/34 = .2059. The probability that in a given year there was both a
forecasted decline and actual decline in interest rates is .2059.
b. No, P(A−) = .4705 and P(A− | F−) = .3684. Interest rates moved down 47% of the time
and yet the forecasters’ predictions of a decline showed a 37% accuracy rate.
Learning Objective: 05-6

5.92 a. i. P(B) = 25/61 = .4098. The likelihood of a climb is .4098.

ii. P(L) = 14/61= .2295. The likelihood of a low noise level is .2295.
iii. P(H | C) = 3/8 = .3750. The likelihood of a high noise given you are in the cruise
phase is .3750.
iv. P(H | D) = 14/28 = .5. The likelihood of a high noise given you are in the descent
phase is .5.
v. P(L and B) = 6/61=.0984. The likelihood of both a low noise and climbing is .0984.
vi. P(L and C)= 2/61=.0328. The likelihood of both a low noise and cruising is .0328.
b. Flight noise is dependent on flight phase. For example: P(H) = .2951 and P(H|C) = .375.
If the events were independent the two probabilities would be the same.
Learning Objective: 05-5
Learning Objective: 05-6

5.93
Cancer No Cancer Totals
Positive Test 4 500 504
Negative Test 0 9496 9496
Totals 4 9996 10000

P(Cancer|Positive Test) = 4/504 = 0.00794.

Learning Objective: 05-8

5.94 P(Authorized) = .95, P(Unauthorized) = .05, P(Denied Access | Authorized) = .001,

P(Allowed Access|Unauthorized) = .000001, P(DeniedAccess|Unauthorized) = .
999999.

Using Bayes’ Theorem:

P ( Authorized �DeniedAccess )
P ( Authorized | DeniedAccess ) = =
P ( DeniedAccess )
P( DeniedAccess | Authorized ) P ( Authorized )
=
P ( DeniedAccess | Authorized ) P ( Authorized ) + P ( DeniedAccess | Unauthorized ) P (Unauthorized )
(.001)(.95)
= .01865.
(.001)(.95) + (.999999)(.05)
Learning Objective: 05-8

5-17
 Chapter 05 - Probability

5.95
Used Drugs Has Not Used Drugs Totals
Positive Test 18 72 90
Negative Test 2 408 410
Totals 20 480 500

P(Used Drugs | Positive Test) = 18/90 = .20.

Learning Objective: 05-8

5-18