FACTORS AFFECTING LIFE

EXPECTANCY IN INDIA

Data Analysis And

Decision Making - II

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 Introduction
Human life expectancy in India is a statistical measure of the average time in years, that a
human being is expected to live, based on the year of its birth, its current age and
other demographic factors including level of pollution that it faces.
As it is an indicator of growth of a country and its human development index, it plays a
significant role in determining the development stage of the country.
The average life expectancy depends upon various factors, such as exposure to pollution, level
of health care technology available, average government funding in healthcare sector,
advancement in healthcare technology, adolescence fertility rate, etc.
Among all those factors exposure to level of pollution is a prime factor, which determines the
life expectancy of a human being. Pollution level depends primarily on amount of green house
gas emission, of which CO2 gas is a major component.

Importance of Problem
As we know, Life expectancy in India fluctuates every year, depending upon its influential
factors, which is not constant with time. In this project, we are trying to establish a dependency
relationship between Life expectancy in India and its various influential factors such as CO2
emission per capita, GDP per capita, Healthcare expenditure per capita, adolescent fertility
rate.
Here in this project we have considered Life expectancy as the dependent variable.
The aim of the project is to see whether there is a relationship between these environmental
and economic factors and life expectancy rate in India in years. If yes, then how much these
factors affect it individually.
So, the significance of the project is to determine by how much quantity these independent
environmental and economic factors are affecting the dependent factor Life expectancy rate in
years in India.
Objectives: The main objectives of the study are:
1. To identify the relationship between selected independent environmental and
economic factors and Life expectancy rate in India.
2. To analyse the impact of selected independent environmental and economic factors
and Life expectancy rate in India.
 Hypothesis of The Study
1. H0: Null Hypothesis-There is no significant relationship between Life expectancy rate
in India and selected independent environmental and economic factors.
H1: Alternate Hypothesis-There is a significant relationship between Life expectancy
rate in India and selected independent environmental and economic factors.

2. H0: Null Hypothesis: Life expectancy rate in India is independent of environmental

and economic factors.
H1: Alternate Hypothesis: Life expectancy rate in India is dependent of environmental
and economic factors.

3. H0: Null Hypothesis-There is uniform data distribution among the data sets of Life
expectancy rate in India and selected independent environmental and economic factors.
H1: Alternate Hypothesis-There is no uniform data distribution among the data sets Life
expectancy rate in India and selected independent environmental and economic factors.

Interpretation of Literature
Mathematically, life expectancy is the mean number of years of life remaining at a given age,
assuming age-specific mortality rates remain at their most recently measured levels. According
to national life expectancy figures reported by statistical national agencies and international
organizations in the Bronze age and the Iron Age, average life expectancy was 26 years
compared to the 2010 world average life expectancy was 67.2 years.
For recent years, in Swaziland average life expectancy is about 49, and in Japan, it is about 83.
The combination of high infant mortality and deaths in young adulthood from accidents,
epidemics, plagues, wars, and childbirth, particularly before modern medicine was widely
available, significantly influencing average life expectancy. But for those who survive early
hazards, a life expectancy of 70 would not be uncommon.

Sources of Data
CO2 emission per capita in India, GDP per capita, Healthcare expenditure per capita,
adolescent fertility rate.
https://www.google.co.in/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_le00_in&
hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=en_atm_co2e_pc&scale_y=li
n&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:IND&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind
=false
Life Expectancy in India
https://www.google.co.in/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_le00_in&
hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_y=lin
&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:IND&ifdim=country&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=f
alse
 Identification of Dependent Variable Data Set
Life expectancy rate in India- Life expectancy rate in India in years, is the statistical measure
of the average time in years, that a human being is expected to live.
In this project we tried to evaluate, whether there is a relationship between these
environmental and economic factors and life expectancy rate in India in years.
In this project we have considered this as the dependent variable data set.

Identification of Independent Variable Data Set

CO2 emission per capita- it is the total amount of CO2 gas emitted divided by total population
of the country. Generally, in developing nations like India due to high industrialization and
rapid urbanization results in high CO2 gas emission.
GDP per capita- GDP is the measure of economic production all finished goods and services
produced in the country during a given period. Generally, it is considered as a growth indicator
of a nation.
Healthcare expenditure per capita- Healthcare expenditure consists of health and health-related cost
of expenditures, used primarily for the purpose of improving health and associated health services. It is
a major component of human performance index of a country, thus a growth indicator.

Adolescent fertility rate- The adolescent fertility rate is defined as the number of births per
1,000 women ages 15 to 19. Having children this early in life exposes adolescent women to
unnecessary risks. Their chance of dying is twice as high as that of a woman who waited until
her 20s to begin childbearing.

Descriptive Statistics
Summary Statistics
Life
Expectancy CO2 GDP per Healthcare Adolescent
rate in India emission per capita in expenditure fertility rate
in years (Y) capita (X1) India (X3) in India (X3) (X4)
Mean 56.09618182 0.724181818 448.796 11.1826074 86.28354182
Standard
Error 7.866019628 0.397336926 536.4143727 2.078229986 27.70507706
Standard
Error 1.06065387 0.0535769 72.33009926 0.280228474 3.735751829
Variance 61.87426478 0.157876633 287740.3792 4.319039876 767.5712951
Minimum 41.17 0.27 36.53 7.883412358 27.4582
Maximum 68.02 1.73 2039 15.17382023 109.456
Range 26.85 1.46 2002.47 7.29040787 81.9978
Sample Size
(N) 55 55 55 55 55
Median 56.59 0.6 266.5 11.07274116 103.921
 Regression Statistics Table

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999169141
R Square 0.998338972
Adjusted R
Square 0.99820609
Standard Error 0.333161935
Observations 55

Annova Table

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 3335.660454 833.9151136 7512.960281 8.38886E-69
Residual 50 5.549843753 0.110996875
Total 54 3341.210298

P value Table
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept -4.274823435 0.955185866 -4.475383888 4.42102E-05 -6.19337071 -2.35627616 -6.19337071 -2.35627616
CO2 Emission per capita (X1) -8.312190876 1.173577908 -7.082777222 4.45387E-09 -10.66939148 -5.954990275 -10.66939148 -5.954990275
GDP per capita (In Billion) (X2) 0.00012457 0.000340234 0.366130902 0.715812068 -0.00055881 0.00080795 -0.00055881 0.00080795
Health expenditure per capita (% GDP) (X3) 5.665839949 0.123252535 45.96935821 1.41935E-42 5.418279946 5.913399952 5.418279946 5.913399952
Adolescent fertility rate (X4) 0.034488297 0.006596295 5.228434333 3.36184E-06 0.021239248 0.047737346 0.021239248 0.047737346
Y= -4.274823435 + (-8.312190876)(x1) + 0.00012457(x2) + 5.665839949(x3) + 0.034488297(x4) + u

Correlation
Correlation is a way to determine the relationship among two variables. If correlation for any
two variables comes out to be more than 0.4 i.e. 40% the two variables are said to be highly
correlated.
In this project the correlation value among various test data statistics are found to be as
fallowing.
Life expectancy rate in India in years and CO2 emission per capita is 0.91.
Life expectancy rate in India in years and GDP per capita in India is 0.78.
Life expectancy rate in India in years and Healthcare expenditure per capita in India is 0.98.
Life expectancy rate in India in years and Adolescent fertility rate is 0.91.
 Correlation Table

Correlation
Y & X1 Y & X2 Y & X3 Y & X4
0.919671884 0.784484752 0.988190288 -0.83504778
X1 & X2 X1 & X3 X1 & X4
0.943613375 0.967591289 -0.962285327
X2 & X3 X2 & X4
0.858147291 -0.925329513
X3 & X4
-0.903645328

Methodology
To establish the dependency relation between various independent variables and one dependent
variable, we use multiple linear regression. It additionally provides information about linearity
of the data among variables and finds error between observed value and predicted value.
In this project we are trying to establish dependency relationship between dependent variable
life expectancy and independent variables.
In this project Multiple linear regression is used to achieve
 Degree of correlation among variables.
 Interpretation of R-square and adjusted R-square value.
 To what extent multiple independent variables are affecting the single dependent
variable individually.
In this project we have used MS Excel 2016 to achieve the fallowing objectives.
 Correlational analysis
 Descriptive statistics
 Regression statistics
 Analysis
Multiple linear regression helps us establishing a linear dependency between one quantitatively
measured dependent variable data set and several statistically measured independent variable
data sets.
In this project we have assumed the confidence level to be 95%.

Scatter Plots

Y=42.91+18.21X1+u
Y=50.93+0.01X2+u

Y=14.27+3.74X3+u
Y=76.55-0.24X4+u

Interpretation of Test Results

In the above regression model, we found the value of R-square to be 99.83% and adjusted R-
square value to be 99.82%. As the value of R-square and adjusted R-square is very high, it
shows the accuracy of the regression model, showing dependency between single dependent
variable data set and several independent variable data sets.
From the above regression model, we found the P value of independent variable data set X2 to
be very high (greater than 0.05). So, effectively we can eliminate the effect of independent
variable data set X2 from the regression model, to minimize the error from regression system.
The resulting regression equation is found to be
Y= -4.274823435 + (-8.312190876) (x1) + 0.00012457(x2) + 5.665839949(x3) + 0.034488297(x4) + u
 Conclusion
From the above regression model, the F value was found to be 7512.96 at 95% confidence
level, with numerator degrees of freedom 4 and denominator degrees of freedom 50. From the
F table given in the book, the F critical value at 95% confidence interval was found to be 2.57.
Since the F value found from the regression model lies in the rejection region, we reject the
null hypothesis.
So, the accepted hypothesis will be “There is a significant relationship between Life expectancy
rate in India and selected independent environmental and economic factors.”
Also, from the Chi square goodness of fit test, we found the Chi square statistics to be 0.098 at
95% confidence level. As in the text book Chi square table, Chi square value corresponding to
maximum degrees of freedom 30 is given, we can safely assume that the data sets are
significantly affecting each other.
Also, from the residual table, we found that the sum of u is found to be 0. Therefore, we can
conclude that the data is uniformly distributed.