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  • Fact Myth Fallacies

    Transféré par

    Julieta Gallo
    16 vues1 page
    The document summarizes key facts about past and future climate change and rebuts common myths and fallacies. It notes that past climate changes show the climate is sensitive to CO2 levels. While natural factors ended the Little Ice Age, human activity now dominates. Models are based on fundamental principles and have made successful predictions, though no model is perfect. The majority of scientific papers in the 1970s predicted warming, not an ice age. Even a significant drop in solar activity would only delay warming by a decade. The IPCC is more likely to underestimate than exaggerate climate impacts.

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    Fact-myth-fallacies

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    The document summarizes key facts about past and future climate change and rebuts common myths and fallacies. It notes that past climate changes show the climate is sensitive to CO2 levels. While natural factors ended the Little Ice Age, human activity now dominates. Models are based on fundamental principles and have made successful predictions, though no model is perfect. The majority of scientific papers in the 1970s predicted warming, not an ice age. Even a significant drop in solar activity would only delay warming by a decade. The IPCC is more likely to underestimate than exaggerate climate impacts.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    Signaler comme contenu inapproprié
    16 vues1 page

    Fact Myth Fallacies

    Transféré par

    Julieta Gallo
    The document summarizes key facts about past and future climate change and rebuts common myths and fallacies. It notes that past climate changes show the climate is sensitive to CO2 levels. While natural factors ended the Little Ice Age, human activity now dominates. Models are based on fundamental principles and have made successful predictions, though no model is perfect. The majority of scientific papers in the 1970s predicted warming, not an ice age. Even a significant drop in solar activity would only delay warming by a decade. The IPCC is more likely to underestimate than exaggerate climate impacts.

    Droits d'auteur :

    © All Rights Reserved
    Téléchargez comme PDF, TXT ou lisez en ligne sur Scribd
    Signaler comme contenu inapproprié
    sur 1

    WEEK 4: PAST & FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE

    FACT MYTH FALLACIES


    Past climate change tells us “Natural climate change in the Jumping to conclusions: past
    climate is sensitive to the past implies current climate climate change actually sends
    warming effect of CO2. change is also natural.” the opposite message than
    what the myth concludes.

    Natural influences that “Current warming is just the Red Herring: the natural factors
    ended the Little Ice Age continuation of natural recov- that ended the Little Ice Age
    have been swamped by ery from the Little Ice Age.” are no longer significant.
    recent human activity.

    In the past when the sun was “CO2 was higher in the past Cherry picking: ignores the
    cooler, CO2 was higher. The but the world didn't boil away role of the sun which was
    two roughly balanced each so the greenhouse effect is cooler in the past.
    other. We are now raising weak.”
    CO2 levels with a warmer sun.

    While the Medieval Warm “The Medieval Warm Period Cherry Picking: For average
    Period saw unusually warm was warmer than current temperature over wide
    temperatures in some regions, conditions. This implies recent regions, the hot regions were
    globally the planet was warming is not unusual and cancelled out by other cool
    cooler than now. must be natural.” regions.

    Models are based on funda- “Models are unreliable.” Impossible expectations: no


    mental physical principles. model is perfect but they are
    useful tools that can reproduce
    the past and provide insights
    into the future.

    Models have made a “Models predictions have Impossible expectations:


    number of successful predic- failed, making them unrelia- climate models have had great
    tions. ble.” success at predicting long-term
    effects like greenhouse warm-
    ing.

    Climate models simulate “Scientists can’t even predict Red herring: Confusing weather
    climate which is weather weather.” with climate distracts from the
    averaged over time. fact that short-term predictions
    have little relevance to
    long-term climate predictions.

    In the 1970s, the majority of “In the 1970s, climate scien- Misrepresentation: confuses
    climate papers were predict- tists were predicting an ice mainstream media reports with
    ing warming. age.” scientific papers which over-
    whelmingly pointed towards
    warming.

    Even if the sun fell to Maun- “We're heading into another Misrepresentation: overstating
    der Minimum levels, it would ice age because of the the role of solar activity on
    only delay global warming cooling sun.” climate - it actually has had
    by a decade. little effect.

    The IPCC is 20 times more “Climate models and the Cherry picking: selectively looks
    likely to underestimate rather IPCC are alarmist.” at a few examples where the
    than exagerate climate IPCC overestimated climate
    impacts. change, ignoring the much
    larger number of examples of
    underestimation.

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