International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 11, Number 20 (2016) pp.

10166-10172
© Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com

Modelling of Daily Solar Energy System Prediction using Support Vector

Machine for Oman

Hussein A Kazem
Associate Professor, Faculty of Engineering, Sohar University PO Box 44, Sohar, PCI 311 Oman.

Jabar H. Yousif
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Computer & Information Technology, Sohar University PO Box 44, Sohar, PCI 311 Oman.

Miqdam T Chaichan
Assistant Professor, Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Technology Baghdad, Iraq.

Abstract
Solar energy is the most important renewable energy source,
which could be utilized through photovoltaic or thermal
systems. This paper aims to design and implement a machine
learning technique called Support Vector Machine (SVM) for
the management of energy generation based on experimental
work. The SVM model is consist of two inputs and one
output. The inputs are solar radiation, and ambient
temperature; the output is the photovoltaic current. The
practical implementation of the proposed SVM model is
achieved a final MSE of (0.026378744) in training phase and
(0.035615759) in cross validation phase. The experiments
achieved a value of (R squared) equal to 0.0774 which
indicates the predicting model is very close to the regression
line and a well data fitting to the statistical model. Besides, the
proposed model achieved less MSE in comparison with other
related work.
Keywords: Solar energy prediction; machine learning;
support vector machine; Oman.
INTRODUCTION
Currently the subject of generating energy from renewable
sources is considering as one of the important topics that are
growing promptly as a result of its many benefits. The current
step of technological development makes the extraction of
renewable energy from various sources such as the sun, wind,
geothermal energies, and many other sources commercially
viable process [1].
Renewable energy started competing with non-renewable
energy sources due to many reasons (i.e., fluctuation of oil
prices, independency, reduction in renewable energy
technology prices and improvement in efficiency, etc.) [2].
Renewable energy generation capacity significantly affected
by fluctuations in the atmosphere for example, solar energy
generated in the morning for the presence of sunlight during
the day and the energy generated from the wind depends on
the wind speed and geographic location. These fluctuations in
the generation rates cause instability in the power grid. Thus,
to overcome this problem, the energy is generated at the time
availability of natural resources is and the excess energy is
stored on the need for later use. At this point, the problem of
finding an efficient management of these sources of electric
power generation is more needed [3]. Solar energy could be
utilized through photovoltaic PV or thermal systems. Solar
energy technology and especially solar cells and photovoltaic
have been experimented for more than 70 years and it shows
good success. The PV system prices get down and at the same
time, the PV efficiency is improved [4].
Machine learning is a subdivision of artificial intelligence that
is developed as a result of studies in pattern classification and
recognition for finding mathematical models for various real
life problems. Machine learning investigates the construction
of algorithms that can learn from the previous data and help in
finding a forecast on the data in the current and future time.
The machine learning applied iterative and interactive
statistical methods in the construction of computational
models to obtain the desired results [5]. The factors like
efficiency of learning algorithms, the complexity of the
problem, methods of representation of data are the most
important factors affect the accuracy of the results and future
forecasting for data.
Several machine learning methods are used for designing and
implementing different phases of a renewable energy power
systems based on the problem requirements and its
characteristics [6, 7 & 8]. Hence, the adaptation of optimal
location and structures of renewable power plants is one of the
important implementation of learning machine methods.
Recently, the Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have been
widely implemented into several problems of renewable
energy power systems [9, 10, 11, and 12].

10166
 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 11, Number 20 (2016) pp. 10166-10172
© Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com
There is number of studies in literature related to the use of
machine learning techniques to predict PV performance,
including Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) network, Probabilistic
Neural Networks (PNN), General Regression Neural
Networks (GRNN), Radial Basis Function networks (RBF),
Cascade Correlation, functional link networks, Kohonen
networks, Gram-Charlier networks, learning vector
quantization, Hebb networks, Adaline Networks, hetero
Associative Networks, Recurrent Networks, and hybrid
networks [9]. Reference [10] proposed prediction model for
solar power generation based on experimental work. Different
machine learning techniques has been used. The authors
included that SVM in the multiple regression techniques. In
SVM model they tried polynomial, linear, RBF kernels. They
claimed that SVM model accuracy increased up to 27%.
Furthermore, principal component analysis has been used to
improve the model. Ref. [11] proposed hybrid intelligent
predictor. The proposed system used regression models
namely, RBF, MLP, Linear Regression (LR), SVM, Simple
Linear Regression (SLR), Pace Regression (PR), Additive
Regression (AR), Median Square (LMS), IBk (an
implementation of kNN) and Locally Weighted Learning
(LWL). They claimed that LMS, MLP, and SVM are the most
accurate models in term of MAE and MAPE. Ref. [12] used
SVM model to predict solar energy; he found that SVM
accuracy is less than Gaussian Process Regression method.
Ref. [5] implements a SVM model to estimate the daily solar
radiation using air temperatures. The developed SVM model
used a polynomial kernel function which performed better
than other SVM models. He obtained a highest NSE of 0.999,
and the R-square of 0.969, while the lowest RMSE is 0.833
and RRMSE of 9.00.
In this study, SVM model will be proposed for solar PV
system in Sohar, the second largest city in Oman, based on
experimental data for solar irradiations and installed PV
system in the Solar Cells and Photovoltaic Research Lab in
Sohar University, Oman. This paper aims to discuss and
implement machine learning methods for acceptable
management of the energy generation of a PV system.
STUDY LOCATION
In Oman due to growth in industry and population the
electrical demand increased and it will keep increasing in near
future as shown in Figure 1. The maximum load increased
from 4,634 MW in 2013 to 5,691 MW in 2014. In 2018 the
forecasted power demand is 6.8 GW, which mean more power
plants need to be installed.
10167
Figure 1. Oman peak power demand for 2011-2015 and
projection till 2018
Sohar is the second largest city in Oman after the capital,
Muscat. It is the primary industrial center which is just 230
km from Muscat, the capital [13]. The solar radiation intensity
in Solar (Direct normal (DNI), diffuse horizontal (DHI) and
global horizontal (GHI)) was measured and recorded
experimentally. The measurements revealed that higher solar
irradiance in summer (July) where the maximum irradiation
recorded value was 950 W/m2 at 1 PM, and the minimum
ones was 202 W/m2 in January at the same hour [14]. As
Sohar stranded between the Al-Arab Sea coast and Al Hajar
Mountains series, this area subjected to few dust storms [15].
Sohar city climate is harsh, with maximum temperatures that
sometimes reach 50°C in the summer season. Also, Sohar has
a humid climate as it is a coastal area [16, 17 & 18]. The
Authority of Electricity Regulation (AER) in Oman has
explored the renewable energy sources in 2008 and they
claimed that the priorities are solar than wind [19]. The Public
Authority for Electricity and Water (PAEW) in 2010
investigated the best locations to install large scale solar
system to generate electricity [20]. In 2011, Sohar University
(SU) won a grant from the Omani Research Council to
investigate, design and assess PV systems in Oman in term of
technical and economic criteria. Refs. [21 & 22] presented
feasibility study of PV systems in Oman standalone and grid
connected, respectively.
Authors of reference [21] proposed optimization of the PV
system tilt angle, array size and storage battery capacity using
MATLAB numerical method. Load demand and hourly
meteorological data has been used. It is found that the PV
system sizing ratio for PV array and battery are 1.33 and 1.6,
respectively. Also, they claimed that the cost of energy for
standalone PV system in Oman is 0.196 USD/kWh.
Ref. [22] investigated and assessed the grid connected PV
system in Oman. It is found that the Crist Factor and Yield
Factor, two technical criteria of the grid connected PV system
are 21% and 1875 kWh/kWp/year respectively. Meanwhile,
the cost of the energy and the payback period as an economic
criteria are 0.045 USD/kWh and 11 years, respectively. As a
conclusion they claimed that the energy generated by PV
systems is cheaper than energy generated by fossil fuel in
Oman.
 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 11, Number 20 (2016) pp. 10166-10172
© Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com

This study proposed model predicts the output of grid

connected PV system in Oman. The proposed model is based
on implementation of artificial intelligent techniques. The
SVM is used to classify and predict the future amount of
production of the PV system. The system experimental data
has been measured in Sohar, Oman.

EXPERIMENTAL SETUP
1. Practical measurement
In the current study, 24 PV modules have been installed in
Sohar University in Oman. The rating of PV module is 140W Figure. 2. (b) Meteorological station
as shown in Table 1. Three PV systems configurations;
standalone, grid connected and tracking systems have been
designed and evaluated as shown in Figure 2 (a). The
meteorological data has been measured and recorded using
weather station as shown in Figure 2 (b). The grid connected
system data (voltage, current, power and energy) has been
recorded and monitored. Also, the measured environmental
parameters are linked to the productivity of the PV system.
This research is a part of a research on grid connected PV
system (see Figure 3) and consequently the production of the Figure. 3. Solar photovoltaic grid connected system
PV system here is needed.
2. Machine Learning
Table 1: Installed solar system specifications The Machine Learning is one of the applications of artificial
intelligence to simulate the thinking capabilities of human
PV array [23]. It is concerning with the techniques and methods that
help the machine to learn. Machine learning is developed as a
PV panels (24 panels) 140 Wp (3.36 kWp) result of studies in pattern classification and recognition for
“Maximum voltage” 17.7 finding mathematical models for various problems. Machine
“Maximum current” 7.91 learning investigates the construction of algorithms that can
“Open circuit voltage” 22.1 learn from the previous data and help in finding a forecast on
the data in the current and future time. The machine learning
“Short circuit current” 8.68 applied iterative and interactive statistical methods in the
“Efficiency” 13.9% construction of computational models to obtain the desired
Temperature coefficient of Vo.c -0.36 %/k results [24]. Several techniques and methodologies are
established for machine learning tasks. The new development
Temperature coefficient of Is.c 0.06 %/k of machine learning techniques is mainly utilizing Kernel-
based methods such as support vector machines (SVM),
Gaussian processes, etc. [6]. A SVM is considered as a
supervised learning technique which is presented by Refs. [23
& 25] in COLT-92 as presented in Figure 4. It is considering
as a classification and regression prediction techniques. SVM
is deployed in many applications, such as face analysis and
detection, hand writing recognition, pattern classification and
regression etc. A classification technique comprises of
training and testing data attributes. The main benefits of SVM
are minimizing the classification error by implement an
iterative training algorithm and maximizing the margin
between two hyper-planes. Figure 5 show the classification
Hyper-planes (wx+b>1 and wx+b<-1). The SVM separates
the cases of different class labels of hyper-planes of
Figure. 2. (a) Grid connected PV system
multidimensional space into binary cases (Positive, Negative)
as illustrated in Figure 5.
So, the positive zone is defined by (w. x+ + b = +1), while the
negative zone is defined by (w. x- + b = -1). If the negative
zone is subtract from the positive zone, then w. (x+-x-) = 2.
Now, the margin M is defined by equation 1.
( x  x )  w
M (1)
w

10168
 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 11, Number 20 (2016) pp. 10166-10172
© Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com
The maximum margin linear classifier is defined as in
equation 2.
2 implemented as a transfer function.
Maximize M (2)
w
Formulate a Quadratic Optimization Problem in order to solve
for w and b as defined in equation 3.
Minimize
1
𝜑 (𝑊) = 𝑤 𝑡 𝑤 (3)
2
Subjected to 𝑦𝑖 (𝑤𝑥𝑖 + 𝑏) ≥ 1 𝑓𝑜𝑟 ∀𝑖
Then the classifying function is defined as in equation 4.
𝑓(𝑥) = ∑ 𝛼𝑖 𝑦𝑖 𝑋𝑖𝑇 𝑋 + 𝑏 (4)
Figure 4. SVM classification Hyper-planes
Figure 5. Positive and negative classes
3- The SVM design and architeture
The SVM is applied using the Neuro-Solutions software
package. The SVM utilizes different types of kernels which
include linear, polynomial, and Radial Basis Function (RBF).
The non-linear information will convert into a linear form by
mapping them into a high-dimensional space. Then, only the
closet data to the decision zone is choosing. Moreover, in
order to have a good generalization the Neuro-Solutions
software package utilizes the large margin classifiers in the
training phase. Figure 6 demonstrates the SVM architecture,
which has only (2 synapses) PEs as input data sets (the time
stamp & corresponding UPV-Solar), and has (1 synapse) PE
as output data set (Photovoltaic temperature). The data
undertaken are generated from 24-PV modules, which have
been installed at Sohar University in Oman. The grid
connected system data (voltage, current, power and energy)
has been recorded and monitored. Also, the measured
environmental parameters are linked to the productivity of the
PV system. In the experiment undertaken, the maximum
number of epochs is set to 1000. The step size is (0.01). The
experimental implement a Radial Basis Function (RBF) as
SVM kernel. Besides, the large margin classifiers in the
10169
training phase are used for the sake of maximizing the chance
of classification and prediction of data. The Gaussian Axon is
Figure 6. SVM Architecture
RESULTS & DISCUSSION
Estimating the classification error is a significant matter. The
Neuro-Solutions software package is implement different type
of methods to evaluate and estimate the errors in output data.
The main method is Mean Square Error (MSE). MSE is a
measure of the variation of the predicted values from the
measured data, which give information on the short-term
performance of the models. A great positive MSE implies a
big deviation in the predicted value of the measured value.
1 n
MSE   ( I pi  Ii )
n i 1
(5)
Where Ii is the measured value, Ipi is the predicted value
and n is the number of observations.
Figure 7 shows the training and cross validation MSE of
the SVM network, which is clearly demonstrating the graph
line of training data set in line with cross validation data sets.
The practical implementation of SVM is achieved a final MSE
of (0.026378744) in training phase and (0.035615759) in
cross validation phase as illustrated in Table 2. The
experiment is giving evidence that there is a strong relation
between the input and the output variables. It is got a
correlation factor of (0.992188933).
Figure 8 depicts the graph of comparison of desired PV output
current and the network output, which is predicate exactly the
tested data. And then can be generalized to utilize any unseen
data for the current and future time.
Figure 9 presents the trend line of desired output y1 and the
network output y. The predicting model for network output is
generated by a polynomial of forth orders is defined as in
equation 6.
 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 11, Number 20 (2016) pp. 10166-10172
© Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com

MSE versus Epoch

Training MSE Cross Validation MSE

0.5

0.4

0.3
MSE

0.2

0.1

0
1 100 199 298 397 496 595 694 793 892 991
Epoch

Figure 7. The graph of training and cross validation MSE Figure 9. The graph of trend line of output and desired
results.
Desired Output and Actual Network The future individual values prediction could be shown
Output through the MSE efficiency of the developed model (SEE
Table 2). A large positive MSE means a large deviation in the
O_Upv_soll O_Upv_soll Output
predicted value from the real value. The developed model
500 found to be able to predict the individual values since its MSE
450 is 0.035. Also, Table 3 illustrates a comparison of MSE for
400
the proposed model and models in literature, which shows that
350
the proposed model is more accurate than other models in
300
Output

250 China, UAE and Malaysia. Also, it is found that SVM is more
200 efficient in comparison with other ANN models.
150
100
50
Table 2: The Minimum MSE & Final MSE of SVM network
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Best Networks Training Cross Validation
Exemplar
Epoch # 1000 1000
Minimum MSE 0.026378744 0.035615759
Figure 8. The graph of training and cross validation MSE Final MSE 0.026378744 0.035615759
y= -0.0001 x4 + 0.0307 x3 – 1.269 x2 + 15.557 x +130.38 (6)

The predicting system is generating an output closely to the Table 3: MSE comparison of the proposed model and models
desired output y1. The desired output is defined as in equation in literature
7. Reference Model type Site MSE
Proposed model SVM Oman 0.026-0.035
y1= -0.00001x4 +0.0255x3 –1.257x2 +16.969x +115.08 (7) J. Zeng et al, SVM, SVM China 0.060-0.137
2013 [8] and Wavelet
The coefficient of determination (R) is used to measure how
Tamer et al, FFMLP Malaysia 0.330-0.530
close the data from the regression line. Usually determine its 2011 [26]
value between 0 and 1, and the closer the value of 1 gave an Tamer et al, FFMP Malaysia 0.342-0.419
indication that the data correspond to the regression line. The 2012 [27]
experiment got a value of (R squared) equal to 0.0774 which Maitha et al, MLP UAE 0.350
indicates the predicting model is very close to the regression 2013 [28]
line and a well data fitting to the statistical model.

10170
 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 11, Number 20 (2016) pp. 10166-10172
© Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com
CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK
A prediction model of solar photovoltaic system using SVM
has been proposed for Oman. This prediction was based on
collected data from installed system in location called Sohar.
Two inputs solar radiation and ambient temperature has been
used and one output, photovoltaic current. The developed
model has been evaluated using MSE. Results show that the
predicting model is very close to the regression line and a well
data fitting to the statistical model. The MSE found to be
2.6%, which is more accurate in comparison with some
studies in literature.
For the sake of reducing the MSE for the proposed network,
alternative machine learning techniques need to be
implemented for discovering the possibility of reducing the
MSE rate like MLP with different hidden layers, SOFM, etc.
The sensitivity analysis need to be implemented to determine
the effects of the input variables on the output of network.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The research leading to these results has received Research
Project Grant Funding from the Research Council of the
Sultanate of Oman, Research Grant Agreement No. ORG SU
EI 11 010. The authors would like to acknowledge support
from the Research Council of Oman.
REFERENCES
[1] Chaichan M T, Mohammed B A and Kazem H A,
Effect of pollution and cleaning on photovoltaic
performance based on experimental study,
International Journal of Scientific and Engineering
Research, vol. 6, No. 4, pp. 594-601, 2015.
[2] Al-Maamary H M S, Kazem H A, Chaichan M T,
Changing the energy profile of the GCC States: A
review, International Journal of Applied Engineering
Research (IJAER), vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 1980-1988,
2016.
[3] Chaichan M T, Kazem H A, Kazem A A, Abaas Kh
I, Al-Asadi K A H, The effect of environmental
conditions on concentrated solar system in desertec
weathers, International Journal of Scientific and
Engineering Research, vol. 6, No. 5, pp. 850-856,
2015.
[4] Kazem H A, Al-Waeli A H A, Al-Mamari A S A,
Al-Kabi A H K, Chaichan M T, A photovoltaic
application in car parking lights with recycled
batteries: A techno-economic study, Australian
Journal of Basic and Applied Science, vol. 9, No. 36,
pp. 43-49, 2015.
[5] Chen J L, Liu H B and Wu W, Estimation of monthly
solar radiation from measured temperatures using
support vector machines. Renewable Energy, vol. 36,
No.1, pp. 413–420, 2011.
[6] Schölkopf B, and Smola A J, Learning with Kernels:
Support Vector Machines, Regularization,
Optimization, and Beyond, MIT Press, Cambridge,
MA, USA, 2011.
10171
[7] Zhao P, Xia J, Dai Y and He J, Wind speed
prediction using support vector regression Industrial
Electronics and Applications (ICIEA), pp. 882 –886,
2010.
[8] Zeng J and Qiao W, Short-term solar power
prediction using a support vector
machine, Renewable Energy, vol. 52, pp. 118 – 127,
2013.
[9] Banda d, Peña R, Gutiérrez G, Juárez E, Visairo N,
Núñez C, Feasibility assessment of the installation of
a photovoltaic system as a battery charging center in
a Mexican Mining Company, Power, Electronics and
Computing (ROPEC), 2014 IEEE International
Autumn Meeting on Power, Electronics and
Computing (ROPEC, 2014), 5 pages, 2014.
[10] Caudill M and Butler C, Understanding neural
networks: Computer explorations volume 1: Basic
networks. The MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass, USA,
1993.
[11] Sharma N, Sharma P, Irwin D and Shenoy P,
Predicting solar generation from weather forecasts
using machine learning. Proceedings of the 2011
IEEE International Conference on Smart Grid
Communications, pp. 528-533, 2011.
[12] Hossain M R, Amanullah M T O, Ali A B M S,
Hybrid prediction method of solar power using
different computational intelligence algorithms.
Proceedings of the 22nd Australasian Universities
Power Engineering Conference, pp. 1-6, 2012.
[13] Ministry of Tourism,
http://www.omantourism.gov.om
[14] Chaichan M T, Kazem H A, Experimental analysis
of solar intensity on photovoltaic in hot and humid
weather conditions, International Journal of
Scientific & Engineering Research, vol. 7, No. 3, 91-
96, 2016.
[15] Kazem H A, ChaichanM T, Saif S A, Dawood A A,
Salim S A, Rashid A A and Alwaeli A A,
Experimental investigations of dust type effect on
photovoltaic systems in north region, Oman,
International Journal of Scientific & Engineering
Research, vol. 6, No. 7, pp. 293-298, 2015.
[16] H.A. Kazem, Renewable energy in Oman: Status and
future prospects, Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews, vol. 15, pp. 3465–3469, 2011.
[17] H.A. Kazem, T. Khatib, Techno-economical
assessment of grid connected photovoltaic power
systems productivity in Oman, Sustainable Energy
Technologies and Assessments, vol. 3, pp. 61–64,
2013.
[18] Kazem H A and Chaichan M T, Effect of humidity
on photovoltaic performance based on experimental
study, International Journal of Applied Engineering
Research (IJAER), vol. 10, No. 23, pp. 43572-43577,
2015.
[19] Authority for Electricity Regulation in Oman (2008).
Study on Renewable Resources. Final Report, Oman.
[20] Public Authority for Electricity and Water
[21]. Kazem H A, KhatibT and Sopian K, Sizing of a
standalone photovoltaic/ battery system at minimum
 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 11, Number 20 (2016) pp. 10166-10172
© Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com

cost for remote housing electrification in Sohar,

Oman. Energy and Building, vol. 6C, pp. 108-115,
2013.
[22] Kazem H A, Khatib T, Sopian K and Elmenreich W,
Performance and feasibility assessment of a 1.4kW
roof top grid-connected photovoltaic power system
under desertec weather conditions, Energy and
Building, vol. 82, pp. 123-129, 2014.
[23] Vapnik V, Statistical learning theory, Wiley, New
York, 1998.
[24] Hastie T, Tibshirani R and Friedman G, The
elements of statistical learning, Springer , 2nd
edition, 2009.
[25] Pasolli L, MelganiF and Blanzieri E, Gaussian
process regression for estimating chlorophyll
concentration in subsurface waters from remote
sensing data. IEEE Geosci. Remote Sens. Lett.,
vol.7,No. 3, pp. 464- 468, 2010.
[26] Khatib T, Mohamed A, Mahmoud M, Sopian K,
Modeling of daily solar energy on a horizontal
surface for five main sites in Malaysia, International
Journal of Green Energy, vol. 8, pp. 795–819, 2011.
[27] Khatib T, Mohamed A, Sopian K, Mahmoud M,
Solar energy prediction for Malaysia using artificial
neural networks, International Journal of Energy, vol.
6, No. 1, pp. 1-16, 2012.
[28] Al-Shamisi M H, Assi A H, Hejase H A N, Artificial
neural networks for predicting global solar radiation
in Al-Ain City, UAE International Journal of Green
Energy, vol. 10, pp. 443–456, 2013.

10172