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Serbia
Statista Country Report
April 2019
Statista Country Reports
Dear Reader,
Find out more about Serbia in our report focusing on the general
economy, trade, investment, society, consumers, infrastructure, and
politics.
The Statista Country Report provides a comprehensive overview of the Tytti Mälkki Volker Staffa
economy of Serbia, which can be relevant for manufacturing, foreign
direct investment, and the importing and exporting business. Gain
insight into the major trends in Serbia in order to assess the risks and
opportunities relevant for international business.
2
Agenda
3
INTRODUCTION
▪ Overview
▪ Executive summary
4
Serbia
Overview (1/3)
General information:
Capital: Belgrade
Official language(s): Serbian
Main religion: Orthodox
Main ethnic group: Serb
Population: 8,762,027
Area: 77,474 sq km
- Population density: 80.3 people per sq km
Total real GDP1 in 2018: US$43.4bn
- GDP1 per capita: US$6,199.89
Corporate tax: 16.0%
Currency: Serbian dinars (RSD)
- Exchange rate: USD/RSD = 99.74
Time zone: UTC+1
Calling code: +381
1: Constant US$, see glossary for definition of current and constant US$
Source: CIA World Factbook 2018, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 2017, World Bank World
5 Development Indicators 2018, International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database 2018, Columbia University, Statista 2018
With 1.4 million in population, Belgrade is the largest
urban area
Overview (2/3)
Belgrade
6 Source: CIA World Factbook 2018, World Bank World Development Indicators 2018
Serbia sports one major airport – flight time from the
U.S. ca. 9 hours
Overview (3/3)
Major airports in Serbia1 Flight times from regional hubs in hours (no. of stops)2
Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport, Belgrade Region Hub BEG
▪ Airport code: BEG 8:50
North America New York City, the U.S. (JFK)
▪ Distance to city center: 19 km (0)
2:40
Europe & Central Asia London, the UK (LHR)
(0)
14:50
East Asia & Pacific Hong Kong, Hong Kong (HKG)
(1)
10:20
South Asia Delhi, India (DEL)
(1)
13:10
Sub-Saharan Africa Johannesburg, South Africa (JNB)
(1)
1: Busiest airports by number of Passengers- Civil Aviation Directorate of the Republic of Serbia 2: Most direct and fastest routes are considered.
Flight times for 17th July 2019-Google Flights
Note: Distances to city center are based on the shortest route calculated by Google Maps and rounded to full kilometers
7 Source: Google Flights , Google Maps
Serbia is a upper middle income country with a
population growth of -0.3% in 2018
Executive summary (1/2)
▪ Serbia had a fiscal deficit of -1.5% of GDP in 2017 ▪ With US$11.8 billion, manufacturers accounted for 69% of the total
merchandise export value in 2017
▪ Household consumption expenditure in Serbia was lower than in
overall Europe & Central Asia in 2017 ▪ Serbia registered a higher export trade flow than Germany in 2017
▪ Unemployment rate was 14.1% in 2017 and has been decreasing ▪ With US$1.4 billion, travel services accounted for 24% of total services
since 2010 export in 2017
▪ It takes 5.5 days to start a business in Serbia compared to 5.6 days in ▪ Inward FDI amounted to $3.2 billion in 2017
the U.S.
8
In global comparison, Serbia has a high level of
human development
Executive summary (2/2)
▪ 77.0% used the internet and there were 102.4 mobile cellular
subscriptions per 100 people
9
Things you didn‘t know about Serbian business
culture
Doing business (1/2)
▪ Business communication is characterized by a mix of both direct and ▪ Formal business meetings are usually scheduled in advance, but last
indirect communication. Small talk is considered essential to build a minute changes are not uncommon.
personal rapport and establish any business relationships.
▪ Punctuality is not a widely accepted norm and meetings can last
▪ A firm handshake and maintaining eye contact are considered longer than scheduled.
important. However, one should take care to not stare at the other
person, as doing so is considered rude. Looking around is perceived ▪ Deadlines are not given much importance, with people often
as a sign of lacking interest and being unprofessional and/or bored. submitting work late.
▪ Serbian is widely used as a business language in the country, but ▪ Tattoos and piercings are not accepted in a business environment.
younger generations tend to also speak English. Language
interpreters are necessary to conduct business in the country for Conflict management
foreign businesspeople, as local business owners and older
generations prefer to converse in their local language.
▪ Serbians prefer resolving business conflicts through discussion.
▪ Hierarchy is very important in the business culture.
Note: Please refer to the appendix for further information on the methodology of data collection
10 Source: Statista 2019
Things you didn‘t know about Serbian business
culture
Doing business (2/2)
▪ Maintaining a strong business network through personal and ▪ While machismo attitudes remain strong, there has been a lot of
professional contacts is rather important to succeed in business. progress towards gender equality in the last decade.
Note: Please refer to the appendix for further information on the methodology of data collection
11 Source: Statista 2019
ECONOMY
• Economic conditions
• Public finances
• Labor force
• Business environment
12
Real GDP is forecast to increase by 3.9% p.a. from
2018 to 2023
Economic conditions: real GDP (1/3)
+3.9%3
52.5
50.5
+0.8%3 48.5
46.7
44.9
43.4
40.9 41.7
40.0 39.0 39.6 39.2 40.2 39.5 39.8
38.8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
1: See glossary for definitions 2: Constant US$, see glossary for definition of current and constant US$ 3: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth
Rate/average growth rate per year
13 Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database 2018, Statista 2018
Real GDP growth at 4.0% was faster and real GDP per
capita at US$6,200 was smaller than average in 2018
Economic conditions: real GDP (2/3)
Real GDP growth, real GDP and real GDP per capita1 in US$2 in Eastern Europe3 & Central Asia in 2018
Real GDP growth 2017-18 in % Regional average
Real GDP: US$500 billion
7
Turkmenistan
6 Armenia
Tajikistan Georgia
5 Uzbekistan
0
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000
Real GDP per capita in US$
1: See glossary for definitions 2: Constant US$, see glossary for definition of current and constant US$ 3: Countries with a real GDP per capita
higher than US$16,000 are excluded
Note: Regional average value refers to the 150 countries covered by the Statista Country Reports
14 Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database 2018, Statista 2018
Serbia has the 65th highest real GDP per capita
Economic conditions: real GDP (3/3)
1: See glossary for definitions 2: Constant US$, see glossary for definition of current and constant US$ 3: Democratic Republic of the Congo
Note: data compared only for the 150 countries from the Statista Country Reports publication series. No data available for following counties:
Cuba, North Korea, Somalia and Syria
15 Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database 2018, Statista 2018
Services accounted for 50% of GDP in 2017
Economic conditions: value added by sector
10.0%
15.0% 26.4%
20.0%
24.8% 25.2%
12.4%
11.5% 11.1% 11.3%
10.0% 9.5% 9.5%
8.0%
9.8%
6.0%
8.1% 7.7%
7.3% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
6.1%
2.1%
1.4% 1.1%
3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
2.1% 2.3%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
When interest rates are low, individuals and businesses tend to take more loans. Each bank loan increases the money supply in a fractional reserve
banking system. According to the quantity theory of money, a growing money supply increases inflation. Thus, a lower interest rate tends to result in a
higher inflation. High interest rates tend to lower inflation. Consumers tend to save when interest rates are higher, as returns from savings are higher.
More money put aside to savings means less disposable income. This results in slower economy and decreased inflation.
Forecasts for interest rates are based on latest historical value in a no-change model3. Inflation levels are estimated after 2016 by the IMF.
1: Percent change in annual average consumer prices 2: Monetary policy-related interest rate, percent per annum 3: As central bank interest
rate changes are highly dependent on macro economic developments we assume a constant development
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database 2018, International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics
17 Database 2018
Serbia had a fiscal deficit of -1.5% of GDP in 2017
Public finance: expenditure and revenue (1/2)
55.2%
50.5%
43.8%
1.8% 0.6%
-1.8% -0.6%
-40.2%
-57.1%
Household General government Gross capital Changes in Exports of goods Imports of goods Other
consumption final consumption formation3 inventories4 and services and services
expenditure1 expenditure2
1: Expenditure by resident households and non-profit institutions serving households on individual consumption goods and services
2: Expenditure on individual consumption goods and services and collective consumption services 3: Including acquisitions less disposals of
valuables 4: Value of entries into inventories less value of withdrawals and value of any recurrent losses of goods held in inventories
19 Source: United Nations National Accounts Estimates of Main Aggregates 2018
Debt-to-GDP ratio in Serbia expected to increase over
the observed time period
Public finances: debt
76.0%
71.9% 73.1%
62.5% 58.8%
61.1% 59.8% 57.2%
57.9% 59.0% 59.6% 57.9%
54.9%
57.1% 55.9% 55.8%
52.7% 53.1% 54.5% 52.9% 51.5%
49.7% 50.1% 50.3%
46.0% 46.6% 47.4%
43.7% 44.7%
36.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
-58.0%
20.6%
14.8%
12.7%
9.7%
9.1% 8.7%
7.2% 7.5%
6.5%
4.7% 4.5%
0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1,749 1,706 1,653 1,640 1,650 1,682 1,695 1,678 1,752 1,738 1,724 1,710 1,697 1,683 1,669 1,656
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
70
60
50
40 59.1% 19.8%
30
Upper
Lower
20 secondary2
secondary1
10
0
2022
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
1: Generally prepares students for a direct entry into working life or for upper secondary education 2: Corresponds to the final stage of
secondary education and prepares the students for a working life or tertiary education
3: Includes programs that serve to broaden the knowledge of students who have already gained an upper secondary education
23 Source: ILO Employment by sector 2018, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital 2018
Unemployment rate was 14.1% in 2017 and has been
decreasing since 2010
Labor force: unemployment
19.2% 19.2%
19.0%
17.9%
17.1%
15.3% 16.1%
14.1% 14.6% 15.0%
13.4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017
Business administration
Time needed Time needed Time needed to fulfill Time needed to resolve
to start a business1 to register property tax requirements insolvency2
The U.S. 5.6 days 15.2 days 175 hours 1.0 years
Delivery
1: Number of calendar days needed to complete the procedures to legally operate a business 2: Number of years from the filing for insolvency
in court until the resolution of distressed assets 3: Time necessary to comply with all the procedures required to export/import goods in
calendar days 4: Includes e.g. speed, simplicity, and predictability of customs clearance (5 = high efficiency, 1 = low efficiency)
25 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2018
Serbia takes 65th place in competitiveness
Business environment: competitiveness
Percentile rankings in Global Competitiveness 4.0 Index in 2018 ▪ Serbia ranked 65th out of 140 countries in
national competitiveness
0%-20% 21%-40% 41%-60% 61%-80% 81%-100%
▪ Percentile rank indicates the country’s place
in the ranking, with 0 corresponding to
lowest rank, and 100 to highest rank
26 Source: World Economic Forum The Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 2018
Serbia experiences a growth in the emergence of new
businesses
Business environment: business formation
New businesses registered per 1,000 inhabitants1 Ease of doing business score² in 2018
Serbia Europe & Central Asia Starting a business Enforcing contracts Getting credit
1: Number of new limited liability corporations registered in the calendar year per 1,000 people between 15-64 years
2: 0 = lowest performance, 100 = best performance
Note: Regional averages for new businesses based on available data for countries covered by Statista Country Reports
27 Source: World Bank Enterprise Surveys 2018, World Bank Doing Business 2018
TRADE &
INVESTMENT
▪ Merchandise trade
▪ Commercial services
▪ Investments
28
Serbia registered a higher export trade flow than
Germany in 2017
Merchandise trade: global comparison (1/2)
Export trade flows of total merchandise1 Import trade flows of total merchandise1
Serbia Europe & Central Asia Germany United States
2010 = 100% 2010 = 100%
175 175
170 170
165 165
160 160
155 155
150 150
145 145
140 140
135 135
130 130
125 125
120 120
115 115
110 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Shares in merchandise trade export value in 2017 Shares in merchandise trade import value in 2017
Serbia Europe & Central Asia Germany United States
87%
78%
76%
74% 73% 72%
69%
61%
19%
16%
12% 12% 13% 12%
11% 11% 11% 11% 10%
9% 9%
7% 7%
5%
Manufacturers Fuels & Mining Agricultural products Manufacturers Fuels & Mining Agricultural products
Note: Regional average value refers to the 150 countries covered by the Statista Country Reports. Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
excluded from the regional average due to unavailability of data
30 Source: WTO International Trade by Commodity and Commercial Services 2018
With US$11.8 billion, manufacturers accounted for
69% of the total merchandise export value in 2017
Merchandise trade: trade flows
Merchandise export trade flows in billion US$1 Merchandise import trade flows in billion US$1
Manufacturers Fuels & Mining Agricultural products Other
+4.0%²
3.0
1.3 2.2
1.4
1.2 1.9 2.0
+8.2%² 1.6 1.9 1.2 2.9
0.5 1.8
2.8 3.9 1.8
0.2 0.4 3.3 1.6 3.6
0.2 4.9 3.7
4.1 3.0
2.9 3.2 0.3 3.3 1.3 2.6
1.5
0.4 0.2 3.0
1.7 1.4 1.1 4.0
0.2 2.7 2.8 1.1
2.4
1.7 1.4
1.5 13.4 12.8 13.4
11.8 11.9 11.8 11.9 11.8
9.8 10.1 9.0 10.1
8.7
7.0 6.9
5.8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1: Current US$, see glossary for differences between current and constant US$ 2: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate / average growth rate
per year
31 Source: WTO International Trade by Commodity and Commercial Services 2018
Serbia registered a higher export trade flow than
Germany in 2017
Commercial services: global comparison (1/2)
Export trade flows of total commercial services1 Import trade flows of total commercial services1
Serbia Europe & Central Asia Germany United States
2010 = 100% 2010 = 100%
170 170
165 165
160 160
155 155
150 150
145 145
140 140
135 135
130 130
125 125
120 120
115 115
110 110
105 105
100 100
95 95
90 90
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Shares in commercial services export value in 2017 Shares in commercial services import value in 2017
Serbia Europe & Central Asia1 Germany United States
29%
27% 26% 26% 26%
23% 23%
21% 21% 20%
20%
18% 19%
16%
13%
11%
6%
5% 5%
4% 3% 3%
2% 2%
Note: Regional average value refers to the 150 countries covered by the Statista Country Reports. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan excluded from
the regional average due to unavailability of data
33 Source: WTO International Trade by Commodity and Commercial Services 2018
With US$1.4 billion, travel services accounted for 24%
of total services export in 2017
Commercial services: trade flows
Commercial services export trade flows in billion US$1 Commercial services import trade flows in billion US$1
Travel Transport Goods-related services Other
+7.8%²
+4.9%²
2.9
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1: Current US$, see glossary for differences between current and constant US$ 2: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate / average growth rate
per year
34 Source: WTO International Trade by Commodity and Commercial Services 2018
With US$275.4 billion, the United States registered
the highest inward FDI flow in 2017
Investments: global comparison (1/2)
1: Foreign direct investment, see glossary for definition 2: Current US$, see glossary for differences between current and constant US$ 3: United
Arab Emirates
Note: Regions only include the 150 countries covered by the Statista Country Reports
35 Source: UNCTAD Foreign Direct Investment Inward and Outward flows and stock 2018
The United States also had the highest outward FDI
sum in 2017, with US$342.3 billion
Investments: global comparison (2/2)
1: Foreign direct investment, see glossary for definition 2: Current US$, see glossary for differences between current and constant US$ 3: United
Arab Emirates
Note: Regions only include the 150 countries covered by the Statista Country Reports
36 Source: UNCTAD Foreign Direct Investment Inward and Outward flows and stock 2018
Inward FDI amounted to $3.2 billion in 2017
Investments: development
3.19
2.69 2.59
2.43
2.17 2.20
1.59
1: Foreign direct investment, see glossary for definition 2: Current US$, see glossary for differences between current and constant US$ Note: FDI
flows with a negative sign indicate that at least one of the three components of FDI (equity capital, reinvested earnings or intra-company loans) is
negative and not offset by positive amounts of the remaining components. These are instances of reverse investment or disinvestment.
37 Source: UNCTAD Foreign Direct Investment Inward and Outward flows and stock 2018
FITCH
SOLUTIONS
RISK INDICES
▪ Methodology
▪ Development
38
Operational risk breakdown
Methodology
The index focuses on four main risk areas: Labor market Logistics Trade & investment Crime & security
(25%) (25%) (25%) (25%)
▪ Labor market: evaluation of the risks surrounding the size, education
levels and costs of employing workers in a country
▪ Trade & investment: evaluation of the openness of an economy, the Trade procedures Vulnerability
Availability of labor Legal
level of government intervention and the quality and efficacy of the and governance to crime
legal environment
▪ Crime & security: evaluation of operating conditions with respect to Market size Government
interstate conflict risk, terrorism, crime, including cybercrime and Labor costs Business crime
and utilities intervention
organized crime
Note: THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' credit ratings. Any comments
or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data
39 or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.
Overall index score increased in 2019, which means
that the operational risk for Serbia decreased
Development
46.8
Note: THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' credit ratings. Any comments
or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data
or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.
1: Scale of 0-100, with 100 being the lowest risk
40 Source: Fitch Solutions
In the “labor market” area, Serbia is 18.0 points
behind the regional high performer
High and low performer
Comparison of country and territory scores to highest and lowest scores 1 in the region and worldwide in 2019
United States 79.0 Netherlands 88.6 Hong Kong (SAR) 88.7 Norway 92.3
Global
high/low
Sierra Leone 25.4 South Sudan 16.9 Chad 18.9 South Sudan 4.5
Note: THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' credit ratings. Any comments
or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data
or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.
1: Scale of 0-100, with 100 being the lowest risk
41 Source: Fitch Solutions
Serbia had the 55th lowest operational risk in 2019
Global comparison
Note: THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' credit ratings. Any comments
or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data
or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.
1: Scale of 0-100, with 100 being the lowest risk 2: Democratic Republic of the Congo
42 Source: Fitch Solutions
With an index score of 57.2, the operational risk in
Serbia is relatively low
Regional comparison
Operational risk index1 worldwide and in Europe & Central Asia in 2019
▪ In 2019, Serbia ranks #55 in the Fitch operational index score out of 150 countries and territories covered by the Statista Country Reports.
▪ It comes #35 when compared to the other 49 countries and territories in the region Europe & Central Asia.
Note: THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' credit ratings. Any comments
or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data
or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.
1: Scale of 0-100, with 100 being the lowest risk
43 Source: Fitch Solutions
SOCIETY
▪ Population
44
Population projected to reach 7.1 million by 2058
Population (1/4)
1: The medium fertility variant assumes that total fertility will eventually converge toward a level of 1.85 children per woman
45 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 2017
59.8% of the population were between the age 20
and 64, more than half of them were women
Population (2/4)
Reading support: 3.5% of the population is female and between the age of 40 and 44.
46 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 2017
Population decreased by 0.3%, which is below
regional average, to a total of 8,762,027 in 2018
Population (3/4)
Population growth, total population, and real GDP1 per capita in US$2 in Eastern Europe3 and Central Asia in 2018
Population growth 2017-2018 in % Regional average Real GDP per capita: US$2,500
2.5
0.0
Belarus
Serbia Ukraine
Albania
-0.5 Romania
Moldova Croatia Bulgaria
Hungary
-1.0
0 5 10 15 20 35 40 45 145
1: See glossary for definitions 2: Constant US$, see glossary for definition of current and constant US$ 3: Countries with a GDP per capita higher
than US$16,000 are excluded
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 2017, International Monetary Fund, World Economic
47 Outlook Database 2018, Statista 2018
Serbia had the 97th highest total population in the
world in 2018
Population (4/4)
1: Countries not included in the Statista Country Reports are omitted in this table 2: Democratic Republic of the Congo
48 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division 2017
In global comparison, Serbia has a high level of
human development
Human Development Index
Human Development Index in 2017 ▪ With 78.7%, Serbia ranks #67 in comparison
of 189 countries.
0%-54% 55%-69% 70%-79% 80%-100%
▪ The Human Development Index was
created to emphasize that people and their
capabilities should be the ultimate criteria
for assessing the development of a country,
not economic growth alone
▪ Consumer behavior
▪ eCommerce
▪ FinTech
50
The retail market in Serbia is maturing
Retail structure (1/4)
▪ Global grocery chains are not present ▪ Global grocery chains start operations in large ▪ Global chains operate in large cities, medium-
cities1 sized cities and rural areas1
▪ National store ownership characterized by
handcart or independent stores ▪ Store ownership is characterized by ▪ Store ownership is characterized by independent
independent stores, national or international stores and national or international chains
▪ Traditional1 payment methods are chains
primarily used ▪ Traditional, electronic and mobile payment
▪ Traditional and electronic payment methods1 methods1 are commonly used
are commonly used
Note: Please refer to the appendix for further information on the methodology
1: See glossary for definitions
51 Source: Statista 2019
In Serbia, global grocery chains are represented in
rural areas as well as in medium-sized and large cities
Retail structure (2/4)
International grocery chains Store location International grocery chains Store location
medium-sized and large cities1
1: See glossary for definitions
Note: Information based on Statista Fact Check
53 Source: Statista 2019
Insights into the grocery structure and shopping
behavior in Serbia
Retail structure (4/4)
The grocery structure in Serbia is characterized by hypermarkets, convenience stores, discounters and handcarts.
Many people in Serbia still like to buy their groceries in mall chains rather than in large international stores. Consumers often buy food on their payday,
which is usually around the 15th of each month.
Hypermarkets and supermarkets have been of growing interest in the past due to special offers and discounts. Nonetheless, many consumers still
prefer to shop at nearby local and independent stores for their daily needs.
12.1% 12.4%
8.5% 9.4%
7.9% 7.3%
6.8% 6.2%
5.1% 5.0% 5.4% 4.7%
3.3% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 3.1% 2.4%
1.3% 1.2%
Food and Alcoholic Clothing Housing House Health Transport Communi- Recreation Education Restaurants Other2
non- beverages, and and maintenance cations and culture and hotels
alcoholic tobacco and footwear utilities1
beverages narcotics
US$27.28bn Serbia
1: Also includes furnishing and household equipment expenses 2: Miscellaneous goods and services 3: Current US$, see appendix for
differences between current and constant US$
Note: Regions only include the 150 countries covered by the Statista Country Reports
55 Source: United Nations Statistics Division 2019; United Nations Demographic Statistics Database 2019
With US$429.2m and a share of 49.1%, eTravel
generates the highest digital revenues
Consumer behavior: digital expenditures
10.7%
▪ In Europe, the digital expenditures as a
6.3% share of consumer spending per capita
5.8% reach 5.8% in 2019
4.4%
2.8% 2.9% 2.4% ▪ In Serbia, the revenue in the eCommerce
market amounts to US$362.2m in 2019
1: Including all revenues generated within the eCommerce, eTravel, eServices, Digital media and Connected car markets 2: Regions only include
countries listed in the Digital Market Outlook
56 Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
Compared to its region, eCommerce penetration is
low and growth is above average
eCommerce: overview (1/2)
eCommerce revenue growth, ARPU1 in US$ and penetration2 in Eastern Europe3 & Central Asia and regions in 2019
eCommerce revenue growth 2018-2019 in % Regional averages ARPU: US$250
28
26
Emerging South Asia Mature
Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan
24 East Asia
22 & Pacific
Sub-Saharan Africa World
20 Belarus
Kazakhstan
Tajikistan Romania
18 Latin America Moldova North America
Turkmenistan & Caribbean Ukraine
16
14 Montenegro
Serbia Macedonia
12 Russia Hungary
10
Bosnia and Albania
8 Herzegovina
Middle East
2 Eastern Europe 3 Croatia
Bulgaria & Central Asia & North Africa Europe4
0
-2 Georgia Turkey
Azerbaijan
-4 Delayed Armenia Saturated
-6
0 20 30 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
eCommerce penetration in %
1: ARPU = average revenue per user 2: Share of active paying customers from the total population 3: Countries with a GDP per capita higher
than US$16,000 are excluded 4: Countries with a GDP per capita lower than US$16,000 are excluded
57 Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2019
Insights into the eCommerce structure in Serbia
eCommerce: overview (2/2)
2019 2023
1: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate/ average growth rate per year
59 Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
Selected online store: Tehnomanija
eCommerce: selected store profile
Headquarter: Belgrade
Payment methods
Direct Bank
E-Wallets Cards Invoice Cash Other1
debits transfer
Logistics providers
n.a.
1: Installments, voucher
Note: Information based on Statista fact check
60 Source: https://www.tehnomanija.rs 2018
The total FinTech transaction value is forecast to grow
by 67.7% from 2019 to 2023
FinTech: transaction projection
1: CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate/ average growth rate per year
61 Source: Statista Digital Market Outlook 2018
INFRA-
STRUCTURE
▪ Digital
▪ Transport
62
77.0% used the internet and there were 102.4 mobile
cellular subscriptions per 100 people
Digital infrastructure (1/2)
Internet penetration1 in 2018 Mobile phone subscriptions1 per Fixed broadband subscriptions1 per
100 inhabitants in 2018 100 inhabitants in 2018
84.1% 124 125 34
79.4%
77.0%
29
102
22
Serbia United States Europe & Serbia United States Europe & Serbia United States Europe &
Central Asia Central Asia Central Asia
n.a.
1: Logistics Performance Index (5 = high performance, 1 = low performance), see glossary for definition 2: Ton-kilometer = cargo weight
transported times distance transported, TEU = Twenty-foot equivalent unit (standard-size container) 3: Container port traffic
65 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators 2018
POLITICS
▪ Political profile
▪ Political environment
66
Serbia is a newer democracy
Political profile
▪ Form of government: democracy Serbian Progressive Party Serbian Radical Party other
Socialist Party of Serbia Enough is Enough
▪ Freedom House score in 2018: 2.5 (1 = most free and 7 = least free)
▪ Serbia is characterized as a newer democracy, as the state has less
than thirty five years' experience with democracy and a current 11.6%
Freedom House rating of 1 to 2.5
20.8%
67 Source: Political Handbook of the World 2016-2017, CIA World Factbook, ElectionGuide, Freedom House
Rule of Law in Serbia is low in global comparison
Political environment: rule of law
Percentile rankings in rule of law in 2017 ▪ When it comes to the rule of law, Serbia has
ranked #109 in the comparison of the 214
0%-20% 21%-40% 41%-60% 61%-80% 81%-100% countries and territories covered by the
World Bank Worldwide Governance
Indicators in 2017
Percentile rankings in regulatory quality in Europe & Central Asia in 2017 ▪ In 2017, Serbia ranked #94 in Regulatory
Quality out of 214 countries and territories
0%-20% 21%-40% 41%-60% 61%-80% 81%-100% covered by the Worldwide Governance
Indicators
▪ Glossary
▪ Authors
72
Methodology and data used in this report
Data description and methods (1/2)
Data sources
The Statista Country Reports present quantitative data from various private and public sources of information. These sources include the International
Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the United Nations, the OECD, the World Economic Forum, the International Labour Organization, the CIA World
Factbook, the Election Guide, the Freedom House, the Political Handbook of the World and Statista itself. The data sources are indicated in footnotes
throughout the report.
Data expressed in constant US$ reflect the value of a currency in a particular base year. The individual base year listed in a country’s national accounts
differs from country to country. Constant series are used to measure the true growth of a series by adjusting for the effects of price inflation.
73
Methodology and data used in this report
Data description and methods (2/2)
The survey sample consists of 381 participants for a total of 127 countries. Due to the small sample size, the information presented in this report gives
the reader a qualitative rough impression of the business culture in a country and cannot always be generalized.
The Statista Fact Check includes 254 participants and covers 127 countries worldwide. The information presented by the Statista Fact Check gives the
reader an impression of the retail and eCommerce structures within the country, but cannot always be generalized.
74
Glossary of terms
Glossary (1/4)
Central bank interest rates: The central bank policy rate (CBPR) Current US$: Data reported in current US$ reflect the value the
is the interest rate that is used by central banks to implement or signal currency has in a particular year. Current data series are influenced by
their monetary policy stance. It is set to influence the economy (e.g. the effect of price inflation and differences in exchange rates, and the
consumer prices, exchange rate or credit expansion, among others). It comparability of growth rates between countries is limited.
also establishes the levels of the rest of the interest rates in the
economy as most private banks obtain their money from the central Discounter: A discounter is a department store which offers items at
banks at that rate. a lower price than other retail stores.
Constant US$: Data expressed in constant US$ show the data for Disposable income: Gross national disposable income may be
each year in the value of a particular base year. The base year of each derived from gross national income by adding all current transfers in
country's national accounts is country specific. Constant series are used cash or in kind, receivable by resident institutional units from non-
to measure the true growth of a series by adjusting for the effects of resident units, and subtracting all current transfers in cash or in kind
price inflation. payable by resident institutional units to non-resident units.
Control of corruption: Perceptions of the extent to which public Ease of doing business score: The ease of doing business score
power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and grand forms captures the gap of each economy from the best regulatory
of corruption, as well as "capture" of the state by elites and private performance observed across all economies considered. An economy's
interests. ease of doing business score is reflected on a scale from 0 to 100, where
0 represents the lowest and 100 represents the best performance.
Convenience store: A convenience store sells convenience goods
(e.g. frequently purchased inexpensive goods) and usually opens from Electronic payment method: Electronic payment methods
early hours to late at night. combine debit and credit card payments.
75
Glossary of terms
Glossary (2/4)
Expense (% of GDP): Expense is cash payments for operating Government expense: Expense is cash payments for operating
activities of the government in providing goods and services. It includes activities of the government in providing goods and services. It includes
compensation of employees (such as wages and salaries), interest and compensation of employees (such as wages and salaries), interest and
subsidies, grants, social benefits, and other expenses such as rent and subsidies, grants, social benefits, and other expenses such as rent and
dividends. dividends.
Fiscal deficit/surplus: Fiscal deficit occurs when government Government revenue: Revenue is cash receipts from taxes, social
expenses exceed revenues. When revenues exceed expenses, there is a contributions, and other revenues such as fines, fees, rent, and income
fiscal surplus. from property or sales. Grants are also considered as revenue but are
excluded here.
Fixed broadband subscriptions: Fixed subscriptions to high-
speed access to the public internet at downstream speeds equal to or Gross domestic product: Gross domestic product is the expen-
greater than 256 kbit/s. diture on goods and services by residents in the form of consumption
expenditures, gross capital formation and exports minus imports.
Foreign direct investment: Foreign direct investment is an
investment made by a resident enterprise in one economy (direct Handcart or pavement vendors: Handcart or pavement
investor or parent enterprise) with the objective of establishing a lasting vendors are street vendors, which sell products without a solid location
interest in an enterprise that is resident in another economy. or building.
General government gross debt: Gross government debt Hypermarket: A hypermarket is a very large self-service warehouse
consists of all liabilities that require payment or payments of interest that combines the features of a supermarket, department store,
and/or principal by the debtor (government) to the creditor at a date or discount store and specialty store in one location.
dates in the future, such as loans, insurance, pensions and debt
securities. Independent, owner-based store: An independent, owner-
based store is a small store with a single or up to three locations.
Usually, the store is owned by an individual or a two-person partnership.
76
Glossary of terms
Glossary (3/4)
Inflation: The rate of inflation is the percent change in the average Merchandise trade: Goods which add or subtract from the stock of
consumer price index (CPI). The average CPI is a measure of a country's material resources of a country by entering (imports) or leaving (exports)
average level of prices based on the cost of a typical basket of consumer its economic territory.
goods and services in a given period.
Mobile payment method: Mobile payment means the use of
Internet penetration: Share of individuals in a country who have smartphones to pay at a grocery store.
used the Internet (from any location) in the last 3 months.
Mobile phone subscriptions: Subscriptions to a public mobile
Labor force: The labor force is the sum of persons in employment telephone service that provide access to the PSTN using cellular
plus persons in unemployment. Together, these two groups of the technology.
population represent the current supply of labor for the production of
goods and services taking place in a country through market Net official development assistance: Net official development
transactions in exchange for remuneration. assistance (ODA) consists of disbursements of loans made on
concessional terms (net of repayments of principal) and grants by official
Large city: A large city is characterized by more than 100,000 agencies of the members of the Development Assistance Committee
inhabitants. (DAC), by multilateral institutions, and by non-DAC countries to promote
economic development and welfare in countries and territories in the
Logistics performance index: Logistics professionals' perception DAC list of ODA recipients. It includes loans with a grant element of at
of a country's quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure (e.g. least 25 percent (calculated at a rate of discount of 10 percent).
ports, railroads, roads, information technology), on a scale ranging from
1 (very low) to 5 (very high). Scores are averaged across all respondents . Real GDP: Real gross domestic product (GDP) is an inflation-adjusted
measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced by an
Medium-sized city: A medium-sized city has a population between economy in a given year, expressed in base-year prices, and is often
20,000 and 100,000 people. referred to as "constant-price", "inflation-corrected" GDP or "constant
dollar GDP". Unlike nominal GDP, real GDP can account for changes in
price level and provide a more accurate figure of economic growth.
77
Glossary of terms
Glossary (4/4)
Value added: Value added is the net output of a sector after adding
up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated
without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or
depletion and degradation of natural resources.
78
About the Statista Global Consumer Survey
Finance Additional
Characteristics
The Consumer Market Outlook presents the key performance 4 Home &
Accessories
indicators sales, revenues and prices of the most important Laundry Care
consumer markets worldwide. Our specialized analysts’ market
calculations are based on data from validated sources. Alcoholic Drinks Hot Drinks
Household
▪ Revenues, sales, prices and forecasts Apparel
Appliances
▪ More than 200 product categories in up to 50 countries
Consumer Non-Alcoholic
▪ Covering the period 2010 to 2023 Electronics Drinks
Tissue &
Food
Hygiene Paper
Tobacco
Footwear
Products
The answers to these and many more questions can be found in Statista's
Digital Market Outlook. It provides forecasts, detailed market insights, and key
indicators for the digital economy.
Direct access & downloads, fully integrated into the Statista database
Coming in 2019:
Medium Cars Large Cars
The Statista Toplists show essential KPIs and include contact details and
address information for each company.
The Toplists are the perfect way to start researching leads in your sales
department, to get quick insights into new markets and as a starting point for
further market assessment.
Volker Staffa studied Business Tytti Mälkki studied International Oliver Sánchez studied Inter- Melanie Mesloh studied Inter-
with a focus on Logistics and Business and Politics in Copen- national Business in Mexico and national Economics, Innovation
Supply Chain Management in hagen, São Paulo, and Beijing, Comparative Local Develop- Economics, and Entrepreneur-
Hamburg and Rhode Island. focusing on subnational econo- ment in Germany, Italy, and ship in Bremen and Hatfield.
metric analysis. Hungary.
Volker has been responsible for Melanie joined Statista in fall
the Statista Industry Reports Tytti has been part of Statista Oliver joined Statista in summer 2018 with prior experience in
since 2012. since summer 2017 with prior 2018 after numerous years in public research.
experience in consulting and marketing and strategy.
communications.
www.statista.com