PAGASA Early Warning

System

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 Introduction:
PAGASA in a Nutshell

Early Warning
System

Communication &
Dissemination
PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA
 Philippine
Atmospheric,
Geophysical &
Astronomical
Services
Administration

Legal Mandate
To provide protection against natural calamities and utilize
scientific knowledge as an effective instrument to insure the
safety, well being and economic security of all the people,
and for the promotion of national progress.

Section 2, Statement of Policy, Presidential Decree No. 78;

December 1972 as amended by PD No. 1149; August 1977
Mission
Deliver reliable and relevant weather-related information,
products and services to develop communities resilient to
typhoons, floods, rain-induced landslides, storm surges, extreme
climatic events climate change and astronomical hazards
Vision
The Center of Excellence for weather related information
and services

 The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a

Member of the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO), a specialized body of
the United Nations.
PAGASA Regional Services Centers

MODERNIZED PAGASA:
TUGUEGARAO
ADDITIONAL 3 REGIONAL OFFICES
SAN FERNANDO,
LA UNION
CAGAYAN
• San Fernando, La Union
• Tacloban
LEGAZPI CITY
• Davao
ALBAY
CENTRAL OFFICE
QUEZON CITY
• Synoptic Observation
Network
• Flood Forecasting
TACLOBAN Warning Centers
• Radar Network
MACTAN CITY
CEBU
• Agromet Observation
Network (Agricultural)
EL SALVADOR • Upper-Air
CAGAYAN DE ORO DAVAO
Observation Network
• AWS Network
• Rainfall Station
Network
 INTRODUCTION
• Philippines is 4th in the world
as the country’s most exposed
and at risk to natural hazards
(World Risk Report 2017).
• 20 Tropical Cyclones in a year
with the following associated
hazards
- Strong Winds
- Excessive Rainfall &
Thunderstorms
- Floods
- Landslides/Mudflows
- Storm Surges
- Tornado
• Affected by ITCZ and
monsoons that result to floods Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in
the Western North Pacific (WNW) during
and landslides the period 1948-2010 (data used : JMA
Data set) (Source : Cinco, et. al.,2011)
 End-to-End Warning System
24x7 Observations Reception/ Customization/ Utilization/ Response
Data Collection / Integration/ Tailor-fitting of Dissemination
Transmission Processing/ Warnings,
Analyses Advisories, Info
Field
Stations

Met. Satellites

Upper-air
Stations

Weather
Radars
Automatic
Stations

Ocean Buoys

Wind Profiler

Aviation Obs.
Stations-LIDARS

Lightning Detection
System

Wave Glider

Global
GTS
Observations
Coastal Radars
 NETWORK OF OBSERVATIONS
9 Upper-Air Stns.
59 Synoptic Stns
25 Agromet Stns

The Weather and Climate Authority

RADAR NETWORK
S-band
S-band 2008
Basco Radar Station
2013 20o25’ 14.87” N 121o57’ 54.76” E
Site Elevation: 166 meters
Palawan Radar Station
9° 13’ 50.01’’ N 118° 00’ 20.09’’ E
Site Elevation: 17 meters
C-band
2014 C-band
2015 S-band
S-band
2009 2012
Agno

Daet

S-band Masbate S-band

2009 Lao-ang 2013

C-band Bohol
2011 C-band
2011

S-band
2012 S-band
Iloilo Radar Station
S-band 2011
10° 46’ 20.08’’ N 122° 34’ 45.08’’ E
Site Elevation: 10 meters
2015
The Weather and Climate Authority
 SATELLITE RECEIVING FACILITY
Station WFFC PRSDs
SATELLITE

NOAA HIMAWARI 1 4

COMS 1

FY-2G 1

NOAA 1

FY-2G SERIES
FY2G HIMAWARI
COMS
COMS

The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Observing Facility & Telecommunication System
 AVIATION WEATHER OBSERVING
STATION (AWOS)

“tracking the
Thesky. . . helping
Weather the
and Climate country”
Authority PAGASA Observing Facility & Telecommunication System
 Coastal Radar High Frequency Doppler Radar (HFDR)

EXISTING CODAR/HFDR Planned

1. NETC & MASINLOC, ZAMBALES
2. BERONG & PUNTA BAJA, PALAWAN
3. LOBO, BATANGAS & CALAPAN, MINDORO
4. SORSOGON & ALLEN, N.SAMAR
5. S.LEYTE & SURIGAO
6. ZAMBOANGUITA & SIQUIJOR

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Forecast and Warning Products
1. Public weather forecasts
2. Shipping forecast
3. Aviation forecasts:
Airways and Terminal Forecast
SIGMET: TC, TSTM & Volcanic Ash
4. Weather Bulletins
a) Weather Advisory
b) Tropical Cyclone Alert
c) Tropical Cyclone Warning
d) Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping
5. Special Weather Forecast/Outlook
6. Forecast for Selected Local and Asian Cities
and Tourist Destination

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority
 WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Enhancement of Early Warning Service
Color-coded Warning System
Hazards Signal/Warning
Heavy Rainfall
Advisory Alert Emergency

Thunderstorm
Information Watch Advisory

Tropical Cyclone
TCWS 1 TCWS 2 TCWS 3 TCWS 4 TCWS 5

Floods Flood Advisory/Bulletin

Storm Surge Severe Weather Bulletin/Storm Surge Bulletin

Gale Gale Warning

Seasonal Climate Outlook El Nino Advisory/La Nina Advisory
The Weather and Climate Authority
 Thunderstorm Warnings

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Thunderstorm over Metro Manila on Aug. 18, 2018
Tagaytay Radar Animation 1:00 AM to 7:00 AM, 18 Aug. 2018

Thunderstorm Advisory No. 8

Issued at 01:00 AM, 17 August 2018
Moderate to heavy rains with lightning and strong winds due to thunderstorms are being experienced in
MetroManila, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac (Capas, SanJose, Concepcion), Pampanga, NuevaEcija (Bongabon,
Gabaldon, Gapan, Penaranda), Bulacan (Hagonoy, Paombong, Calumpit), Cavite, Laguna, Batangas
(Calatagan,
The WeatherNasugbu, Alfonso, Talisay, Balete, Lipa, Sto.Tomas), Rizal and Quezon (GenNakar, Real) which
and Climate Authority
 Thunderstorm over Metro Manila on Aug. 3, 2018

Thunderstorm Advisory No. 4 #NCR_PRSD

Radar Animation for 12AM-9:00AM , 03 August 2018 Issued at: 12:40 AM 03 August 2018

Heavy rains with lightning and strong

winds due to thunderstorms are expected
over #MetroManila, #Zambales, #Tarlac, #
NuevaEcija, #Pampanga and #Rizal within
the next 3 hours.

The above conditions are being

experienced
in #Bulacan(Norzagaray,Pandi,StaMaria)
and #Bataan(Morong,Bagac,Mariveles)
which may persist within 2 hours and may
affect nearby areas.

All are advised to take precautionary

measures against the impacts associated
with these hazards which include flash
floods and landslides. Keep monitoring for
updates.

The Weather and Climate Authority

 HEAVY RAINFALL WARNING LEVELS

RAINFALL VALUES (mm) MEANING WARNING

Rainfall of 7.5 to 15 mm per Community

hour is expected to fall and
most likely to continue for the FLOODING is POSSIBLE in low lying
next 3 hours.
areas and near river channels
Rainfall of more than 15mm up to Community
30mm within 1 hour has fallen or
expected to fall and most likely to
continue or if continuous rainfall for FLOODING is THREATHENING in low
the past 3 hours is more than 45mm lying areas and near river channels
to 65mm
Rainfall of more than 30mm within 1 Community
hour has fallen or expected to fall Take Action
and most likely to continue or if
continuous rainfall for the past 3 SERIOUS FLOODING is EXPECTED
hours is more than 65mm
Take necessary precautionary measures

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority
Heavy Rainfall Event: SW Monsoon enhanced by TS Karding

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority
 HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS ISSUED ON 11 AUGUST 2018

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority
 Gale Warning
When to issue
When winds strength is expected to reach 52 kph or
greater near the coast within the next6-12 hrs.
Lifting or Final Warning
When the wind force/ intensity has weakened and the final
warning will be issued after 6-12 hours.

The Weather and Climate Authority

Sample Gale Warning Delineation of Seaboard
Delineation of Seaboard

The Weather and Climate Authority

 TROPICAL CYCLONES

GARDO
Max/Gust: 200 / 245 kph

PAGASA Payong
The Weather and Climate Authority
The Weather and Climate Authority
PAGASA
Monthly Average Tropical Cyclone
Occurrences within the PAR

4
3.4 3.4 3.1
2.7
3
2.3

2 1.5 1.4
0.9
1 0.5
0.3 0.3 0.4

0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Updated Tropical Cyclone Classification
INTENSITY
CATEGORY Kilometer per Nautical miles per
hour (kph) hour [knots] (kt)
1. Tropical Depression (TD) 61 or less 33 or less
2. Tropical Storm (TS) 62- 88 34 - 47

3. Severe Tropical Storm (STS) 89 - 117 48 - 63

4. Typhoon (TY) 118 - 220 64 - 120

5. Super Typhoon (STY) more than 220 more than 120

Based on the classification of tropical cyclones being used in the warning

systems intended for international users and exchanges among the Typhoon
Committee Members (Category 1-4, from Chapter 4, Typhoon Committee
Operational Manual, Meteorological Component, 2015 Ed.)

The Weather and Climate Authority

 o o o o
(120 E, 25 N) (135 E, 25 N)

o o
(115 E, 15 N)

o o
(115 E, 5 N)
o o
(135 E, 5 N)

The Weather and Climate Authority

 NAMES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES
1 2 3 4
2017 2018 2019 2020
2021 2022 2023 2024
2025 2026 2027 2028
2029 2030 2031 2032
AURING AGATON AMANG AMBO
BISING BASYANG BETTY BUTCHOY
CRISING CALOY CHEDENG CARINA
DANTE DOMENG DODONG DINDO
EMONG ESTER EGAY ENTENG
FABIAN FLORITA FALCON FERDIE
GORIO GARDO GORING GENER
HUANING HENRY HANNA HELEN
ISANG INDAY INENG IGME
JOLINA JOSIE JENNY JULIAN
KIKO KARDING KABAYAN *KRISTINE
LANNIE LUIS LIWAYWAY *LEON
MARING MAYMAY MARILYN MARCE
NANDO NENENG NIMFA *NIKA
ODETTE OMPONG ONYOK OFEL
PAOLO PAENG PERLA PEPITO
QUEDAN QUEENIE QUIEL QUINTA
RAMIL ROSITA RAMON ROLLY
SALOME SAMUEL SARAH SIONY
TINO TOMAS TISOY TONYO
URDUJA USMAN URSULA ULYSSES
VINTA VENUS VIRING VICKY
WILMA WALDO WENG WARREN
YASMIN YAYANG YOYOY YOYONG
ZORAIDA ZENY ZIGZAG ZOSIMO
The Weather and Climate Authority Note: With * is a replaced name of the decommissioned 2016 Tropical Cyclones
AUXILLIARY LIST

1 2 3 4
ALAMID AGILA ABE ALAKDAN
BRUNO BAGWIS BERTO BALDO
CONCHING CHITO CHARO CLARA
DOLOR DIEGO DADO DENCIO
ERNIE ELENA ESTOY ESTONG
FLORANTE FELINO FELION FELIPE
GERARDO GUNDING GENING GOMER
HERNAN HARRIET HERMAN HELING
ISKO INDANG IRMA ISMAEL
JEROME JESSA JAIME JULIO

The Weather and Climate Authority

 TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING SYSTEM
A. Weather Advisory
B. Severe Weather Bulletin
(SWB)
• SWB Alert
• SWB Warning

The Weather and Climate Authority

Weather Advisory for Tropical Cyclone
When to issue
A tropical cyclone is outside the Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR) (i.e. Marianas Is.) and could pose a threat
in the next 3 to 4 days. The tropical cyclone has no impending
threat yet to any part of the country.

Issued once a day at 11:00AM, Updates will be incorporated in the

4 AM and 4 PM issue of Public Weather Forecast.

NOTE:
Weather Advisory for other severe weather systems:
southwest monsoon, low pressure area (LPA) : it describes the
expected weather condition in affected areas and its duration

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Severe Weather Bulletin (SWB)
• Alert - A tropical cyclone entered or developed inside the PAR
and has an impending threat the country. No tropical cyclone
warning signal (TCWS) is in effect.
Issuance is twice a day, 11 AM and 11 PM.

• Warning - Tropical cyclone has a real threat to some areas of

the country and Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal No. ONE
(TCWS#1) is already in effect.
Issuance is every six hours: 5AM, 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM.

NOTE: Hourly update on the TC position is given once a

TCWS is raised over an area.

The Weather and Climate Authority

Severe Weather Bulletin

NEW CHANGES:
• When a tropical cyclone is predicted to make
landfall or pass close to the coastline in 24 hrs,
SWB will be issued every 3 hours until the TC
has no effect over the coast and landmass.
• Information on TC occurrence over the WN
Pacific Ocean will be provided even if it is still
far away from PAR

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Tropical Cyclone Warning System

• TC Information will
be provided when
over the WN Pacific
Ocean outside PAR
• TC Advisory over
green area.
• Severe Weather
Bulletin over the
Philippine Area of
Responsibility (PAR)
in red

The Weather and Climate Authority

 Tropical Cyclone Warning Signals (TCWS)
LEAD TIME WINDS
TCWS (hrs) IMPACTS
(KPH)
on 1st issuance

 Light damages to crops

#1 36 30 - 60  Cancellation of sea travel

 Moderate to heavy damages

to crops and fish ponds
#2 24 61-120  Partial disruption of power
distribution and
communication
 Widespread disruption of
power & communication
#3 18 121-170  Road closure due to
uprooted trees and fallen
transmission line

 Roads closed due to fallen

trees & collapsed bridges
#4 12 171-220  Total power disruption

more than Catastrophic damages

#5 12
220 (Delubyo)
The Weather and Climate Authority
Preparation of Forecast, warnings & advisories

#3 Cagayan, Isabela,
Northern Aurora

#2 Calayan and Babuyan Group

of Island, Apayao, Kalinga, Mt.
Province, Nueva Vizcaya,
Ifugao, Rest of Aurora, Polillo
Island, Catanduanes, Qurino

#1 Sur, Ilocos Norte,

Benguet, Nueva Ecija,
Quezon, Camarines
Norte, Camarines Sur,
Albay, Sorsogon,

PAGASA provide hourly updates on

TC position and strength.
1
The Weather and Climate Authority
 PROBABILITY CONE OR CONE OF UNCERTAINTY

The Weather and Climate Authority

EARLY WARNING…..
POTENTIAL AREAS AT RISK FOR TD JOSIE

EARLY ACTION!!!

The Weather and Climate Authority

 COMMUNICATION AND DISSEMINATION
Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment
assessing the possible impacts of the hazard to the community and is used
to determine the appropriate level of response action from the national to
the local government. HAZARD SPECIFIC, AREA FOCUS & TIME BOUND

The Weather and Climate Authority

Information Dissemination End Users/
Packages Channel Beneficiaries

Office of the Regional Centers

Tropical President
cyclone Local Government
advisories & Office of the General
Disaster Response Public
warnings Civil Defense Agencies

Quad-Media
Regional Centers
PAGASA Field
Tropical Local Government
Stations
Cyclone
Warnings for
Shipping Navigators

Aviation
Forecasts / Airline Pilots
warnings
The Weather and Climate Authority
Warning Dissemination
 Information Dissemination

Conduct Press Conferences and press briefing in PAGASA

every 6 hours

The Weather and Climate Authority

 HOW IS THE WARNING/
BULLETIN DISSEMINATED ?

www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph @dost_pagasa
PAGASA’s Meteopilipinas

http://meteopilipinas.gov.ph/
The Weather and Climate Authority
 Mobile Website:
Please visit
m.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/weather

Techniques Application and Meteorological Satellite Section, Weather Division

The Weather and Climate Authority
 Google Public Alerts

http://google.org/crisismap/philippines

The Weather and Climate Authority

 New PAGASA Website

http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
The Weather and Climate Authority
The Weather and Climate Authority
Based on critical analysis of all available real-time data:
- PAGASA Forecasters decided to maintain the STORM
intensity and TCWS#2 was issued at 5AM
- Recommended OP to advice the Pope to fly early to
Tacloban and leave at 1:00PM.

Pope Francis fly to Tacloban at 7:37 am &

depart from Tacloban at exactly 1:07 pm
PST to Manila instead of the originally
scheduled 5:00 pm PST.
After Pope’s departure, a Bombardier Global
Express plane carrying several Cabinet
secretaries skidded off the runway of Tacloban
The Weather and Climate Authority Airport.
For any early warning system to succeed,
several components are necessary:
• Technology to detect and monitor the hazard;
• Communication systems to alert the public;
• Local leaders trained to make the right decisions;
• A public that is educated to react appropriately to warnings; and
• Response protocols — such as evacuation plans — prepared
and rehearsed well in advance of the threat.

All these elements must work well, both individually and

in harmony.
Failure in any one of these elements can mean failure of the
whole early warning system.

The Weather and Climate Authority

The Weather and Climate Authority
http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

The Weather and Climate Authority