Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 1

ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION

GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week 46_November 15 to 19, 2010
1 of 1

Review:
STOCK markets across the globe tumbled by at least 2.0% last week. Equity
indexes in Frankfurt, London, New Zealand, Seoul and Kuala Lumpur escaped
the massive sell-off although sustaining losses of less than 2%. Meanwhile, the
Nikkei, Jakarta and Singapore managed to eke marginal gains.

Philippine shares slumped the most, giving up -6.3% off the prior week's level. It
breezed past a number of technical support levels, stopping short of the primary
trend's first major retracement line at 3,970. The drop actually started in the
Friday preceding last week, initially dragged by disappointing earnings from
telecom firms PLDT [pse: TEL] and Globe Telecom [pse: GLO]. The bloodbath
not only continued but intensified through last week despite several firms
reporting significant jumps in their bottomlines. Investors were looking at other
influences, principally the magnitude of foreign selling, and ignoring the
continuing improvements in individual firm's fundamentals.

The domestic economy remains “vibrant.” Figures show no immediate threats


to the stability of the country's emergence from last year's slowdown. The
biggest concern recently raised was over the strength of the local currency which
tempers export revenue, a bane for an export-dependent economy such as ours.
This may have also contributed to the aggressive foreign selling which dragged
the market last week.

Foreign portfolio investments for October showed a net inflow of US$1 billion,
twice the prior month and 8x year-on-year. This brings the year-to-date level to
US$2.5 billion, a 357% increase over the same period last year. Registered
investments reached US$8.9 billion, US$6.6 billion of which were placed with
PSE listed stocks. Property & Bank issues cornered US$1.4 billion each, Holding
Firms US$1.2 billion, telcos US$1.1 billion and utilities US$683 million. The US,
UK, Singapore, Luxembourg and Hong Kong topped the list of investor countries
accounting for 79% of the total registered investments.

Commercial bank loans, net of RPPs with the BSP, grew by 9.8% in September, slower than the 12.5% expansion in the previous month. The decrease
is attributed to a deceleration in lending to both household and productive sectors. The latter, comprising 81.5% of total KB's total loan portfolio grew
at a slower 10.8% versus the preceding month's 12.7%. The pace of growth in consumer loans was cut by almost half to 8.0% from 15.4%, month-on-
month. The Monetary Board, in its October 7 meeting, believed that that current policy settings are appropriate given manageable inflation within the
policy horizon. The Bank sees 2010 inflation at 4.5+/-1%, 4.0+/-1% for the next two years.

Outlook:
THE market may be hard-pressed to find motivation for an aggressive
return to the equity market this week, particularly with the interruption
posed by a Tuesday holiday. Investors would most likely take to the
sidelines and make definitive trading decisions at its resumption on
Wednesday. The >6.0% slide last week would have been enough reason to
enter short-term trades on anticipation of a technical rebound but
whatever modicum of confidence from that end may have been effectively
negated by the Dow's slide Friday. Earnings, which we had earlier seen as
a motive force to propel the index past the 4,400 mark has given way to a
pervasive fear induced by heightened foreign selling last week.

Nevertheless, past these short-term glitches, the optimistic view for the
medium to long term remains unaltered, albeit not necessarily
unchallenged. The index' immediate support is found at the 3,970-line,
with the major retracement point of the primary trend at the 3,280-mark.
Resistance is adjusted downwards to 4,150.

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO
CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT
REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY
INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-
WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi