The Future

Climate of
Amazonia
Scientific Assessment Report

Antonio Donato Nobre

ARA
Articulación Regional
Amazônica
The Future
Climate of
Amazonia
Scientific Assessment Report
1st edition

Antonio Donato Nobre

Sao Jose dos Campos – SP

Edition ARA, CCST-INPE e INPA
2014
The Future Climate of Amazonia
Scientific Assessment Report

Author:
Antonio Donato Nobre, PhD*
Researcher at CCST** MCTi/INPE
Researcher at MCTi/INPA

Patronage:
Articulación Regional Amazónica (ARA)

Institutional Sponsorship:
Earth System Science Center (CCST)
National Institute of Space Research (INPE)
National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA)

Strategic Partnership:
Avina and Avina Americas
Fundo Vale
Fundação Skoll

Support:
Instituto Socioambiental
Flying Rivers Project
WWF

N669f Nobre, Antonio Donato

The future climate of Amazonia: scientific assessment report / Antonio Donato Nobre; translation Ameri-
can Journal Experts, Margi Moss –São José dos Campos, SP: ARA: CCST-INPE: INPA, 2014.
e-book : il.

Translation of: O futuro climático da Amazônia: relatório de avaliação científica.

ISBN: 978-85-17-00074-4

1. Climatology. 2. Amazon (Region). 3. Environment.

I. Title. CDU: 551.58

Cite the report as:

Nobre AD, 2014, The Future Climate of Amazonia, Scientific Assessment Report. Sponsored by CCST-INPE, INPA and ARA. São José dos
Campos, Brazil, 42p.

Available online at: http://www.ccst.inpe.br/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/ The_Future_Climate_of_Amazonia_Report.pdf

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

*  Antonio Donato Nobre (curriculum Lattes) studies the Earth system through an interdisciplinary approach and works to popularize science. He has been a senior researcher at the National Institute of
Amazonian Research (INPA) since 1985 and has worked since 2003 at the National Institute of Space Research (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais).
** The Earth System Science Center (Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre) is a new department at INPE for interdisciplinary research on the Earth as a System.
 This assessment of the future of the Amazon’s climate 2 It goes on to describe the capabilities of the rainfor-
consists of a concise review and synthesis of the scien- est in its virgin state: the Amazon forest -the green-
tific literature combined with an analytic interpretation ocean1- and its relationship with the atmosphere -the
of the key issues on the subject. gaseous-ocean-, with which it exchanges gases, water
and energy, and with the Atlantic -the blue-ocean-,
While focusing on the science, the report is couched in the primary source and final repository of the water
accessible language and adopts a holistic perspective, that irrigates the continent. Ever since the studies of
seeking to put numerous sources and expert analyses Humboldt2, modern science and traditional indige-
into a single coherent picture of the Amazon ecosystem. nous knowledge have clarified important mysteries
regarding the powers of the great rainforest over
The report seeks to trace the climatic potential of the the elements that make up the Earth’s climate. We
world’s greatest remaining rainforest, its functions crit- explore five discoveries important to Amazonian
ical to human society and its destruction through de- ecohydrology.
forestation and fire. It further discusses what needs to
Executive summary be done to stop the runaway train that the climate has Unraveling the mysteries of the Amazon
become since human occupation in forest areas.
The first mystery involves the humidity that the
Since the subject is vast, it needs to be examined in rainforest maintains in moving air, and which brings
chronological sequence. rain to mainland areas that are located far from the
oceans. This occurs due to the innate ability of trees
1 The text begins with an overview of the key fac- to transfer large volumes of water from the soil to
tor in geological history: the network of Amazonian the atmosphere through transpiration.
biodiversity, which developed its current functional
capacities over tens of millions of years. Life process- The second mystery concerns the formation of
es that operate in rainforests have developed an abundant rainfall in clean air. Amazonian trees emit
almost incomprehensible complexity, with an as- volatile substances that act as precursors of con-
tronomical number of organisms working together densation nuclei for water vapor. The efficiency of
like gears linked into a phenomenal environmental these particles in cloud nucleation results in benign
regulation machine. and bountiful rainfall.
1  The term green-ocean describes the ocean-like characteristics of this continental expanse covered by dense forests. The importance of this novel concept lies in its suggestion of a forest surface, stretched out
below the atmosphere, where vastness, wetness and exposure to wind closely resemble characteristics akin to the actual oceans.
2  Alexander von Humboldt, influential German scientist-naturalist, who explored the Americas at the turn of the 18th century to the 19th century, considered the father of sciences such as geography, physics, meteo-
rology and ecology.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Executive summary 4

 The third mystery is related to the rainforest’s ca- by lateral transport from over the ocean deprives affecting climate that emerges from this analysis is
pacity to survive climatic cataclysms and its formi- the storms of their food (water vapor) in the oceanic the severe cumulative extent of deforestation, an
dable powers to sustain a beneficial hydrological regions adjacent to big forests. area measured up to 2013 in the Brazilian Amazon at
cycle, even under unfavorable external conditions. nearly 763,000 km2 (the combined area of two Ger-
According to the biotic pump theory3, profuse tree All these effects combine together to make the ma- manys or two Japans). This surface measurement,
transpiration, combined with very strong conden- jestic Amazon rainforest the very best and most furthermore, needs to be added to the impacted area
sation in the formation of clouds and rainfall – a valued partner for all human activities that require of the little studied and seldom-mentioned extent of
condensation far greater than that which occurs measured amounts of rain, a mild climate, and pro- forest degradation (estimated to exceed 1.2 million
over adjacent oceans – leads to a reduction in at- tection against extreme events. km2) that is likely to be a factor influencing climate.
mospheric pressure over the forest which, in turn,
draws moist air over the oceans inland, maintaining 3 The report continues with a description of the ef- 4 The report continues by relating the green-ocean
rainfall levels under most circumstances. fects of deforestation and fire on climate: the dev- rainforest and deforestation in the context of lon-
astation of the Amazon rainforest generates a dra- ger periods of time: vegetation-climate equilibrium
The fourth mystery explains why the southern por- matically inhospitable climate. Over 20 years ago, teetering on the brink of the abyss. Climate models
tion of South America on the eastern side of the An- climate models predicted various harmful effects of that are interactively linked to vegetation models
des is not a desert, as is the case with other areas deforestation on the climate, and these have been can be used to explore which surface-areas of dif-
at the same latitudes both west of the Andes and confirmed by observations. Among these effects ferent types of vegetation and what climate condi-
on other continents. The Amazon rainforest not only are drastic, widespread decreases in forest transpi- tions are capable of generating stable climate-veg-
keeps the air moist for its own purposes, but also ex- ration, changes in the dynamics of clouds and rain, etation equilibria.
ports water vapor via aerial rivers, which carry the and the extended duration of the dry season. Oth-
water that will produce the abundant rainfall that ir- er side-effects that had not been predicted, such For Amazonia, current models project the possibil-
rigates distant regions during the summer months. as the damaging effects of smoke and soot on rain ity of two equilibrium points: one that favors the
processes, have also been observed, even over un- forest (humid, the current and historical state of the
The fifth mystery provides the reason why the Am- disturbed green-ocean rainforest areas. Amazon basin) and another that favors the savanna
azon and the oceans nearby do not allow certain (drier, the current conditions in the cerrado4 -- a po-
atmospheric phenomena, such as hurricanes and The damage inflicted on the Amazon climate by de- tentially bleak future for the Amazon basin).
extreme weather events, to propagate. Evenly dis- forestation, fire, smoke and soot is already glaringly
tributed condensation over the wrinkled forest can- apparent in both scientific field measurements and A point of concern behind these modeling exercises
opy precludes the concentration of wind power in in leading climate-modelling scenarios. Analysis is the clear indication that a reduction of approxi-
damaging vortices like hurricanes or tornadoes on based on updated climate models and on new phys- mately 40% of the rainforest may trigger a large-
land, while the depletion of atmospheric moisture ical theory predicts a worse future. The major factor scale transition to a savanna equilibrium, in time
3  (Makarieva & Gorshkov, 2007) Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver of the hydrological cycle on land.
4  N. of T. The “cerrado” is a type of savanna found in the Brazilian territory

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Executive summary 5

 eliminating even forests that have not been felled.
Current clear cutting deforestation in the Brazilian
Amazon corresponds to approximately 20% of the
original forest cover, and forest degradation is es-
timated to have disturbed the remaining forest to
varying degrees, directly affecting an additional
20% or so of the original area.
5 The final section of this report recommends a miti-
gation plan that is based on a radical reversal of both
past and expected future damage: a war effort. The
rainforests of Amazonia are essential to sustaining
the global climate and the security of future gener-
ations. Fortunately, advances in the sciences make
this “war” a challenge than can be successfully met.
Despite the difficulty in precisely separating the
background effects of global climate changes from
effects on a local- and regional-scale, there is no
doubt that deforestation, forest degradation and
associated impacts have already affected the cli-
mate both near and far from the Amazon. They have
already taken a heavy toll, and threaten to become
even more serious in the future, such that the only
responsible option available to us is to act immedi-
ately and forcefully to combat the causes.
As a first initiative, there is a need for universal, fa-
cilitated access to scientific discoveries, in order to
reduce pressure from the primary cause of defor-
estation: ignorance.
Second, it is necessary to stop the bleeding and de-
struction of the forest, i.e., to halt deforestation, for-
est degradation and fire immediately using any and
all possible and ethical means. At the same time,
bearing in mind the conclusion that accumulated
deforestation and degradation are the most serious
factors contributing to regional climate change, de-
veloping a large scale, effective effort to replant and
restore the areas denuded of their forest cover be-
comes an urgent necessity.
Such an effort must have medium- and long-term
perspectives that culminate in the regeneration
of the original green-ocean Amazonian rainforest,
essential as it is to the global climate. In view of
this, governments can, should and need to take
the lead in orchestrating a massive mobilization of
people, resources and strategies so we can make
up for lost time.
In conclusion, while underscoring the urgency of ac-
tions to protect and restore the great Amazon rain-
forest, this report identifies real viable opportunities
for us to trace new pathways to a future in which a
renewed and protected rainforest can continue to
provide fundamental ecological support for human
activities both within and beyond the Amazon.
The Future Climate of Amazonia • Executive summary 6
Acknowledgments

Thanks to everyone who contributed to the input of qualified information to this report, especially Enéas Salati for
the history of isotopic studies; Martin Hodnett, José Marengo and Celso Randow for evapotranspiration data; Dió-
genes Alves and Dalton Valeriano for deforestation data; José Marengo for focused and very useful warnings; Anita
Drumond for calculations on ocean evaporation; Antonio Manzi, who raised issues on the global circulation; Victor
Gorshkov and Anastassia Makarieva for solution on those issues and crucial corrections on the atmosphere physics;
Claudio Maretti for helping to put preservation issues into perspective; Elisangela Broedel for the critical review of de-
forestation and tree destruction data; Yosio Shimabukuro and Scott Saleska for information related to surface area of
Amazonia and tree density; Gilvan Sampaio for corrections to the text on the vegetation-climate equilibrium models;
Meirat Andreae and Steven Wofsy for references and guidance on atmospheric chemistry; German Poveda for refer-
ences and advice regarding Andean glaciers; Suprabha Sechan for raising the difficulty with technology; the excellent
criticisms and suggestions made by commentators and the audience at the 3rd Pan-Amazon meeting of ARA, in Lima,
Peru; the questions and reactions of the public at the debate carried out by Nossa São Paulo and the Ethos Institute
on the water crisis in the metropolitan region of São Paulo; Sérgio Guimarães, Márcio Santilli, Paulo Nobre, Tasso
Azevedo, Adriana Cuartas, Lou Gold, Foster Brown, Claudio Maretti, Victor Gorshkov, Anastassia Makarieva, Stephan
Schwartzman and Robert Harriss for excellent and inspired reviews; Marcos Losekann and Gerard and Margi Moss
for their thought-provoking questions, which led to improvements in the text; Marcelo Leite for the sober professional
and high-quality review, essential for adjusting and improving the text; Jaime Gesisky and Moema Ungarelli for care
and accuracy in the final review; Felipe Horst for the lovely layout of the report; Margi Moss for her stellar revision
of style and fluency; American Journal Experts for the base translation from Portuguese; the Articulación Regional
Amazónica for commissioning the study; and the Executive Secretariat of ARA, especially Sérgio Guimarães and Clau-
dio Oliveira, for the constant support and encouragement. Special thanks go to INPE/CCST and INPA for institutional
support; Avina, Fundo Vale and Skoll Foundation for valuable partnership; and ISA, Flying Rivers project and WWF, for
their support.
 Introduction – Forest technology is irreplaceable 9

1) Forests generate a friendly climate: five mysteries clarified 11

1.1) Recycling of moisture: forest geysers 11
1.2) Cloud nucleation: the pixie dust over the green ocean 14
1.3) Biotic moisture pump: donate water to receive rain 15
1.4) Aerial rivers: fresh water through airborne arteries 17
1.5) Wrinkled canopy: wind-break 19

2) Deforestation leads to an inhospitable climate: without trees, the sun cannot be blocked 20
2.1) Virtual deforestation: simulating the annihilation of trees 20
2.2) Real deforestation: eagle eyes in space 22

3) The Achilles’ heel of Amazonia: the invincible hero falls 25

3.1) Point of no return: the misstep into the abyss 25
Contents 3.2) Savannization and desertification: extensive or unthinkable damage? 26

4) The future climate of Amazonia: it has already arrived 28

4.1) Climate reciprocity: cumulative deforestation demands immediate payment 29
4.2) Order of urgency: better late than never 30

5) Forests of opportunities: five steps towards climate recovery 32

5.1) Popularize forest science: knowledge is power 32
5.2) Zero deforestation: start yesterday 32
5.3) Put an end to fires, smoke and soot: call the fire department! 33
5.4) Recover deforestation liability: the phoenix rises from the ashes 33
5.5) Governments and society need to wake up: reality shock 34

Conclusions 36
Epilogue: Prologue of a new era 37
References 38

Introduction
Forest technology5 is irreplaceable
Loosely defined, the rainforest is a multicolored, ex- When this happens, the planet initially cools down,
tremely rich, structured living carpet. It is an extrav- reducing plant growth and consumption of CO2.
agant colony of organisms that climbed out of the The subsequent accumulation of CO2 leads to global
ocean 400 million years ago and migrated to land. warming and thus the process continues, following an
Conditions inside forest leaves resemble primordial oscillating cycle of self-regulation7. In this way, plants
marine life. The rainforest canopy functions like a very work as a thermostat that responds to temperature
elaborate adapted sea suspended in the air that con- fluctuations by adjusting the concentration of CO2,
tains a myriad of living cells. Having evolved over the the primary greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after
last 50 million years, the Amazon rainforest is the larg- water vapor. However, this temperature regulation via
est technology park the Earth has ever known because the measured consumption of CO2 is only one of many
each of its organisms (numbering among trillions) is of life’s mechanisms that result in favorable environ-
a marvel of miniaturization and automation. At room mental regulation.
temperature, using biochemical mechanisms of al-
most incomprehensible complexity, life continually
processes atoms and molecules thereby determining
As will be seen in this work, rainforests are much more
than an agglomeration of trees, a passive repository
and regulating the flow of substances and energy. of biodiversity or simple carbon storage. Their living
technology and dynamics of interaction with the en-
Forests condition the cli- The comfortable climate that vironment gives them a certain power over the ele-
mate according to what we enjoy on Earth, which is ments, an innate and resilient ability to condition the
suits them best and thereby unknown on other celestial climate. Thus, forests condition the climate according
generate stability and com-
bodies, can be largely at- to what suits them best and they thereby generate
fort, a shelter that enables
human societies to flourish.tributed (in addition to many stability and create a comfort zone, a shelter which en-
other capacities) to the liv- ables human societies to flourish.
ing organisms capable of performing photosynthesis.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) serves as food for plants, acting South America is a continent privileged by the exten-
as the raw material that is transformed, via biochem- sive presence of megabiodiverse forests. It is no coinci-
ical processes using both light and water, into wood, dence that this continent had, and still has, one of the
leaves, fruits and roots6. When plants consume CO2, its most favorable climates compared to other landmass-
concentration in the atmosphere decreases. es. However, over the last 500 years, most of the native
5  For lack of better term, the metaphorical use of technology wants to indicate a (non human) natural dimension of incredible complexity and sophistication existing in living sys-
tems, which operates automatically at nano-scale (billionths of a meter), so to create and maintain habitability and comfort. Arthur C. Clark third law states, “Any sufficiently advanced
technology is indistinguishable from magic.” Nature’s technology is inconceivably advanced.
6  Molecular biology animations: http://www.johnkyrk.com/index.pt.html, in English; several languages available.
7  Biotic Regulation of the Environment: http://www.bioticregulation.ru/, in English.
The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 9
vegetation outside the Amazon basin has been anni-
hilated. For example, the Atlantic Forest has lost more
than 90% of its original coverage. Though perceptible,
the effect of this historical deforestation on the climate
has been less noticed than one would expect because
the warmth and humidity of the wet shadow of the
Amazon rainforest has kept the continent reasonably
protected from extreme weather and maintained a
mild climate. However, over the last 40 years, the last
great rainforest, source of the atmospheric water that
supplies most of the continent, has suffered relentless
deforestation. Coincidentally, losses due to natural di-
sasters induced by climate anomalies have increased,
as much due to an excess of rain, heat and wind as to a
lack of precipitation (droughts)8.
The Andean regions, and even the Pacific coast, which
depend on glaciers for their water supplies, may be
under threat in the near future because of accelerated
snowmelt induced by climate warming and because
nearly all the rain that falls on the highest mountains,
and replenishes the glaciers every year, originates from
water vapor emitted by the Amazon forest9. East of the
Andes, dependence on the Amazon hydrological cycle
is immeasurably greater.
prime ingredient. The tongues of vapor that emerge
from the Amazon during the summer bring essential
rainfall and other beneficial influences to southeast-
ern and southern Brazil (where South America’s largest
production infrastructure is located) and other areas,
such as the Pantanal and the Chaco, Bolivia, Paraguay
and Argentina’s agricultural regions.
This study will first explain what we know on how the
Amazon rainforest works and how it is able to exist and
to persist through geological eras. Then it will show the
effects on the climate that have already been caused
by the ongoing destruction of the natural system and
predictions on what is still to come. Finally, the text
will explore the threats to climate balance that the al-
terations already in course may trigger by analyzing
underlying climate risks from different perspectives.

The savanna regions in the central-southern portion of

this region, today home to one of the world’s largest
production belts of grains and other agricultural goods,
also receives water vapor from the Amazon rainforest
that provides regulated, benign rainfall10– agriculture’s
8  (Marengo et al., 2013) Recent Extremes of Drought and Flooding in Amazonia: Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation (Marengo et al., 2011) Extreme climatic events in the Amazon basin.
9  (Rabatel et al., 2012) Review article of the current state of glaciers in the tropical Andes: a multi-century perspective on glacier evolution and climate change.
10  (Willmot & Webber, 1998) South American Climate Data: http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/, in English.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 10

 Seeking to elucidate mysteries, a scientist’s work does
not differ greatly from a detective’s investigations. They
explore clues, analyze evidence, develop theories and
build up models. In the thrilling deductions of Sherlock
Holmes, the most intricate cases culminated in simple
solutions. The reality of the natural world appears rich
and complex, full of mysteries and secrets. However,
the scientific method, spiced by fascination and hu-
manized by childish curiosity, opens the gates towards
understanding some of the most mysterious phenom-
ena that affect our daily lives.
1) Forests generate a Such phenomena, when clarified and explained in
their simplest forms, democratize scientific knowledge,
friendly climate: five allowing for the development of a new and exciting
shared awareness about the world that we inhabit.
mysteries clarified There are still many mysterious secrets hidden away by
Nature about how the forest works. Here, we will look
at just five of them, mysteries that have been solved in
recent decades and are crucial for understanding the
roles of forests in generating a friendly climate.
elaborate representations of
Due to a large and grow-
ing body of evidence, we
vegetation. Scientific findings
now know the vital roleabout the determining role of
of vegetation in many
forests in local-, regional- and
climate processes.
global-scale cycles of water, en-
ergy, carbon and other variables apply to all natural for-
ests. However, here we are going to focus more on the
rainforests of South America, especially the Amazon.
All climate-modeling studies consider the Amazon ba-
sin as a whole. However, because there are more data
available for the Brazilian Amazon11, most scientific
studies have been conducted in this region, especially
for monitoring deforestation. Given the importance of
the entire Amazon basin, i.e., the so-called Pan-Amazo-
nia, and because the atmosphere and rivers do not care
about political boundaries, future observations, map-
ping studies and analyses must break through national
boundaries, following the example of projects such as
RAISG, with its extensive, integrated surveys on human
pressure on the Amazon12.

In their eagerness to model the colossal flows of mass
and energy using computers configured to simulate
climate, meteorologists initially paid little attention to
vegetation cover. This approach has radically changed.
Due to a large and growing body of evidence, we now
know the vital role vegetation plays in many climate
processes. Nearly all climate models, as well as the
most complex models of the earth system, now include
1.1) Recycling of moisture: forest geysers
Three hundred years after the European invasion of the
Americas13, the aura of a Garden of Eden in the tropical
jungles had already lost its romantic appeal, possibly
because of the greedy Spanish conquistadores’ horror
of the green hell, an endless, monotonous and danger-
ous labyrinth that inspired more fear and despair than

11  Defined within what was delineated as Legal Amazon by decree during the Brazilian dictatorship (1964-1985).
12  RAISG Red Amazónica de Información Socioambietal Georreferenciada [Amazonian Network of Georeferenced Socio-environmental Information]: http://raisg.socioambiental.org/, in Spanish; Atlas Amazonia
under pressure: http://raisg.socioambiental.org/system/files/Amazonia under pressure16_05_2013.pdf, in English.
13  (Gambini, 2000) Espelho índio: a formação da alma brasileira [Indian mirror - the making of the Brazilian soul].

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 11

fascination. In the 19th century, thanks to scientific nat-
uralists, the fascination was rekindled but now tinged
with a rational appeal. Alexander von Humboldt, the
acclaimed, influential German scientist and natural-
ist who explored the Americas in the late 1700s/early
1800s, is considered the father of sciences such as phys-
ical geography, meteorology and ecology. He used the
term Hylaea [from the Greek, wild forest] for Amazonia
and, with the richness and enchantment of his detailed
descriptions, he inspired generations of naturalists, in-
cluding Darwin. Humboldt was the first to suggest a
connection between forests, air humidity and climate.
However, in the early 20th century, the polymath Eu-
clides da Cunha, a prolific Brazilian author and military
man, broke the spell of scientific naturalism with his
disillusioned descriptions of the hylaea. His disciple Al-
berto Rangel, who, like his master, was also moved by
the misery of the rubber tappers and hardships of life
in the jungle, revived the prospect of damnation of the
Spanish invaders in the book Inferno Verde (Green Hell)
Transpiration: plants do not wear deodorant
Plants sweat. The evaporating water cools both the leaves and the envi-
ronment. However, transpiration in plants is much more important than just
that. Transpiration promotes the suction of nutrient-rich soil water by the
roots and up through the trunk into the leaves. It enables leaves to open their
microportals to the atmosphere (stomata), allowing water vapor to leave but
also allowing the most essential of gaseous fertilizer to enter, i.e., CO2. The
scents produced by plants, i.e., the organic gases that play many roles in
how the atmosphere and rainfall operate, are expelled along with the trans-
pired water. Therefore, without transpiration, plants would no longer regulate
their own wellness; they would cease to control the environment and would
die from a lack of nutrients, including CO2, and excessive temperatures.
and irreversibly dispelled the image of a green para- However, these findings left numerous questions un-
dise. Their verbal bigotry against the wilderness habi- answered, i.e., where, how much, how, why and with
tat, backed by their self-confessed ignorance as to the what implications. Unknowingly adopting Euclides
intrinsic value of the forest, in conjunction with the fail- da Cunha’s reductionist suggestion, in the three de-
ure of the rubber boom, most likely allowed their leg- cades following Salati’s studies, over two dozen major
acy of values to influence hearts and minds of future research projects17 - bringing together hundreds of
generations. scientists and using many laboratories, sophisticated
instruments, towers, airplanes, boats, satellites, super-
How much of the subsequent urge to “occupy” the Am- computers and other scientific tools - have produced
azon, with the remorseless eradication of the forest, had thousands of articles, dozens of books and numerous
its roots in this story? Euclides da Cunha, prefacing his databases, primarily containing information that is dif-
disciple’s book, discredits Humboldt’s holistic approach ficult to interpret when considered in isolation.
(“the epistemology of ‘Amazonian science’ will flourish if
one worries less about revealing the entire hylaea”) and It is said that the “present-day scientist” is one who stud-
anticipated the reductionist demand to come14. ies more and more about less and less until he knows
everything about nothing. It is ironic that, 200 years
The recycling of moisture Studies that finally revealed later, the most productive way of making sense of the
from the rain by forest evap-
the secrets of the great for- enormity of these research studies is precisely to resume
oration keeps the air humidest were slow in coming. Humboldt’s holistic approach, articulating the wealth of
for over 3,000 km inland.
Seeking to test preliminary loose data and building an integrated and functional
water balance calculations for the Amazon15 that indi- narrative about the astonishing concentration of life in
cated significant water recycling, Enéas Salati led ob- the forests of Amazonia and its power over the elements.
servational studies on rainfall and evaporation in the
1970s that unequivocally demonstrated how the for- Let us see how we can capture the spectacular aspects
est via moisture recycling keeps the air humid for over of just how the forest works by following the path wa-
3,000 km inland16. ter takes from the atmosphere, through the deepest
intimacy of plants and back into the atmosphere again.
14  Rafael Leandro reflects Euclides da Cunha’s expression in that preface: “the enormity of the forest can only be measured if partitioned… only in the late future will one know the secrets of Nature […] The definition of
the last aspects of the Amazon will represent the conclusion of all natural history…” (Leandro, 2009) Inferno Verde: Representação Literária da Amazônia na Obra de Alberto Rangel [Green Hell: Literary Representa-
tion of the Amazon in the Work of Alberto Rangel].
15  (Molion 1975) A climatonomic study of the energy and moisture fluxes of the Amazon basin with considerations of deforestation effects; (Villa Nova et al. 1976) Estimativa de evapotranspiração na Bacia
Amazônica [Estimate of evapotranspiration in the Amazon Basin]; (Marques et al. 1977) Precipitable water and water vapor flux between Belem and Manaus.
16  (Salati et al, 1979) Recycling of Water in the Amazon Basin: An Isotopic Study.
17  Research projects in the Amazon: ARME, NASA-GTE ABLE, ABRACOS, TRACE-A, RBLE, CAMREX, INPA-Max Planck, INPA-ORSTOM, PDBFF, PELD, LBA, LBA-EUSTACH, LBA-CARBONSINK, LBA-CLAIRE, LBA-ECO,
LBA-Barca, LBA-DMIP, GEWEX, ISLSCP, GEOMA, PPBio, Rainfor, AmazonFlux, AMAZE, Amazon Pire, Amazalert, AMAZONICA, Changing Amazônia, ATTO, ACRIDICON-CHUVA, GreenOceanAmazon etc. Within the
great LBA project alone, 217 research subprojects were developed over 16 years of operation.
The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 12
After clouds precipitate their precious liquid over the Vapor geyser: greater than the Amazon River
forest, a lot of water trickles through the canopy and
Seeking a simple way to quantify the massive forest transpiration sug-
infiltrates the permeable forest bed where it is stored in gested by the studies of Salati and others, we made revealing calcula-
porous soil or, deeper down, in large aquifers acting as tions in 2007 in conjunction with Adriana Cuartas. Using evaporation data
veritable underground oceans of freshwater. collected from flux towers as part of the LBA project (an average of 3.6
mm per day, or 3.6 liters per m2), we estimated the total amount of water
flowing daily from the soil to the atmosphere through the trees. The calcu-
The water from the soil begins its return journey to the lation for the whole rainforest, covering 5.5 million km2 in the Amazon ba-
atmosphere by being absorbed by deep and sophis- sin, resulted in the astronomical number of 20 billion tons of water trans-
ticated suction devices, i.e., plant roots. It then defies pired per day (or 20 trillion liters). This would be over 22 billion tons if we
consider all forests in equatorial South America and 25 billion (or more) if
gravity and rises to heights of 40 to 60 m (or more) in
we considered the forests in their pristine state in 150019. For comparison
elaborate pipelines in the xylem of tree trunks. Finally, purposes: the volume of water discharged by the Amazon River into the
the water goes through the laminar evaporating struc- Atlantic Ocean is slightly more than 17 billion tons per day20.
tures of the leaves, which are versatile chemical solar
panels capable of absorbing energy from the sun and Twenty billion tons of water is
Just like a building with
taking advantage of the wind’s caresses to transpire transpired per day by all the
many floors, one square me-
trees in the Amazon basin.
and transfer copious amounts of water vapor into the ter of ground in the Amazon
atmosphere, thus completing the vertical cycle that may support up to 10 square meters of intricate foliar
began with the rain. surface distributed at different levels in the canopy. This
explains the fact that a forested land surface can evap-
A large tree can pump from the A large tree can pump orate as much water as the liquid surface of an ocean
soil and transpire over a thousand from the soil and transpire or a lake (where 1 m2 of evaporating surface coincides
liters of water in a single day.
over a thousand liters of with the same 1 m2 of geometric surface).
water in a single day18. Amazonia is home to hundreds
of billions of trees in its forests. Twenty billion tons of Duly corroborating these amazing facts, a study recent-
water are transpired per day by all the trees in the Am- ly published in the scientific journal Nature21 has ad-
azon basin19. As a whole, these trees - those benevolent vanced our understanding of the extraordinary impor-
silent green structures of nature -, act like geysers and tance of global vegetation in transferring water back to
spout a vertical river of vapor into the air that is even the atmosphere: nearly 90% of all water that reaches
greater than the Amazon River.20 the atmosphere from the continents does so via plant

18  Assuming a crown area with a radius of 10 m, 324.2 m2 x 3.6 liters/m2 = 1131.1 transpired liters in one day.
19  Based on the recent forested area in the Amazon river basis, 5.5 x 1012 m2 x 3.6 liters/m2 = 19.8 x 1012 liters (~20 x 109 tons). The forest area in the Amazon (sensu latissimo Eva et al, 2005, A proposal for defining the geo-
graphical Boundaries of Amazônia), including wet, dry and flooded forests = 6,280,468 km2, or 6.280468 x 1012 m2 x 3.6 liters/m2 = 22.6096848 x 1012 liters (22.61 x 109 tons). Based on the historical area covered with forest
(area with forest in 2004 – Eva et al., 2005- more clear cut deforestation until 2004, Alves 2007) = 6,943,468 km2, or 6.943468 x 1012 m2 x 3.6 liters/m2 = 25 x 1012 liters (25 x 109 tons).
20  The flow rate of the Amazon River at the mouth is 2 x 105 m3/second x 86400 seconds/day = 17.28 x 109 m3/day.
21  (Jasechko et al., 2013) Terrestrial water fluxes dominated by transpiration.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 13

 transpiration; only slightly
Plant transpiration transfers Climate power of the forest Green ocean: the Amazon most of the blue ocean tends
nearly 90% of all water that
more than 10% reaches the atmosphere has air as clear towards aridity, with very lit-
reaches the atmosphere How much energy from the Sun is consumed to evaporate 20 trillion liters of of dust as the atmosphere
atmosphere through simple water per day? To get an idea of the magnitude of energy involved in tran- tle rainfall whilst most of the
from the continents over the blue ocean.
evaporation without the me- spiration within the Amazon, let us compare this to the energy produced by green-ocean receives constant
diation of plants. Because this transfer by transpiration hydroelectric dams. Evaporating one gram of liquid water consumes 2.3 ki- torrential rainfall. This rainfall used to be so plentiful that
lojoules of solar energy. To convert this into electrical hydro power, imagine a
occurs due to substantial surface energy absorption, before the advance of deforestation, it was often said
giant kettle – one of those you plug into a power outlet – that could hold this
plants are able to interfere greatly with rainfall, winds water volume. How much electricity would be needed to boil and evaporate that there were only two seasons in the Amazon, wet and
and the weather. all this water? The Itaipu power plant, with its 14,000 megawatts of power, wetter. Now, there is a pronounced dry season, and the
would need to generate electricity at maximum capacity for 145 years for the duration of the wet season diminishes progressively24.
kettle to evaporate the amount of water equivalent to that transpired in just
Water transfer to the atmosphere requires energy. Let
one day in the Amazon. Alternatively, to compete with the Amazon’s trees
us look at a close parallel. To generate much-needed and do the job in one day, it would be necessary to combine the electricity Clouds are clusters of small water droplets suspended
electricity, there is much talk about harnessing ener- produced by 50,000 power plants like Itaipu (or 200,000 like Belo Monte on in the air. Visible droplets condense from water vapor,
gy from the waters of the Amazon. However, hydraulic the Xingu river). This comparison shows clearly that the greatest of human which is invisible to the naked eye, at sufficiently low
structures are microscopic beside the climate power of the forest.
energy from falling river water only exists because that temperatures. However, temperature alone does not ini-
water was lifted up and transported by the atmosphere the first studies using aircraft and observations from tiate the condensation process. A solid or liquid surface
to the upper headwaters. The transpiration of trees, the TRMM22 satellite, which was conducted as part of that works as a “seed” for the deposition of vapor mole-
which is a vital link in the water cycle, consumes solar the LBA project, found that the air in the lower atmo- cules must also initially be present. These seeds, or con-
energy as water is pumped out of the soil and during sphere (troposphere) in the Amazon is as clean of dust densation nuclei, are generally atmospheric aerosols:
transpiration. The trees thus function as elevators that as the air over the ocean, where dust sources are few. dust particles, pollen, salt grains, soot and many others.
lift and launch water high into the atmosphere; this wa- This study also found that typical Amazonian clouds
ter can later return to the ground as rain, transferring a closely resemble maritime clouds. This unusual similar- However, aerosols are found in low concentrations
portion of the built-in solar energy in the water vapor ity inspired those researchers to nickname the Amazon over the green-ocean, a condition that is similar to the
to potential energy in the water that fills the reservoirs the “green-ocean”23. The term green-ocean describes blue ocean. If the cleanliness of the air can be accredit-
of hydroelectric dams. the ocean-like characteristics of this continental ex- ed, on the one hand, to the effect of a carpet of damp
panse covered by dense forests. The importance of this forest keeping the dust down and, on the other hand,
1.2) Cloud nucleation: the pixie dust novel concept lies in its suggestion of a forest surface, to the cleansing of the air by the constant rainfall over
over the green ocean stretched out below the atmosphere, where vastness, the green-ocean, how does such abundant rainfall oc-
wetness and exposure to wind closely resemble char- cur without the usual seeds for nucleation?
Returning colossal volumes of water vapor into the at- acteristics akin to the actual oceans.
mosphere is only the first part of the recipe to make When studying carbon dioxide exchanges using flux tow-
and maintain plentiful, benign rains. In 1999, one of However, there was a mystery in this similarity because ers, Brazilian scientists from INPA and USP and European
22  Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission: http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/, in English.
23  (Williams et al., 2002) Contrasting convective regimes over the Amazon: Implications for cloud electrification.
24  (Marengo 2011) The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 14

scientists from the Netherlands, Germany and Italy col- of gas dissolved in the air, the rain does not wash them
laborated on the LBA project to also investigate the ex- out. They are only washed out when they oxidize and
change of other carbon-containing gases produced by precipitate as aerosols that act to form rain. However,
plants and to assess if these gases are important for there are always more BVOCs available to form more
these exchanges. These other gases are the “scents” of pixie dust for the next rain shower.
the forest, and are also called biogenic volatile organic
compounds (BVOCs25). Just as an open perfume bottle In addition to promoting plentiful, gentle rains, oth-
loses liquid via evaporation and the perfume is diffused er biochemical mechanisms that are similar to those
into the ambient air, a variety of organic substances that produce BVOCs act as “chemical brushes” for the
evaporate from leaves and enter the atmosphere. atmosphere. Under Amazonian conditions, hazardous
pollutants (such as ozone) are removed from the air. In
In humid air and sunlight, In terms of mass, the amount the 1980s, in the first studies of atmospheric chemis-
plant scents form a very of carbon lost to the atmo- try using specially equipped aircraft, it was found that
fine dust with an affinity for
sphere through these organ- the air in the lower atmosphere over the Amazon con-
water; these are the cloud
ic gases is small. However, tained less ozone (and was therefore healthier) than air
condensation nuclei.
a group led by Meinrat An- in the most remote regions on Earth (such as Antarc-
dreae from the Max Planck Institute, which studies the tica). In subsequent decades, other research projects
chemistry of gases in the atmosphere, investigated the have pointed out the role of trees in cleaning the atmo-
effects of these aromas when mixed with Amazon air sphere27. From these and other ongoing studies, it can
and unlocked the mystery of cloud nucleation in this be suggested that Amazonian plants use some form of
region26. BVOCs (such as isoprene, terpenes and many vitamin C as an antioxidant to remove from the air gas-
others), in a humid atmosphere and in the presence es that are harmful to life.
of solar radiation, oxidize and precipitate to form very
fine dust particles with an affinity for water (hygro- 1.3) Biotic moisture pump: donate water to receive rain
scopic) that act as efficient cloud condensation nuclei.
Poetically speaking, this is the pixie dust that magically In 2005, at the peak of the most serious drought ever
appears in the moisture-laden air, and causes rain to to hit the Amazon till that time, we worked on integrat-
bucket down from low clouds, i.e., the watering cans ing data encompassing the first six years of the LBA
of the Garden of Eden. While BVOCs exist in the form project28. After reviewing the evidence drawn from

25  Biogenic Volatile Organic Carbons: these compounds are considered biogenic because they are synthesized by living organisms, like the scents of plants. There are other volatile organic compounds that are
non-biogenic, which are simply called VOCs, e.g., paint solvent.
26  (Pöschl et al., 2010) Rainforest aerosols as biogenic nuclei of clouds and precipitation in the Amazon, (Clayes et al., 2004) Formation of secondary organic aerosols through photooxidation of isoprene. Release:
Max Planck Institute news, Astonishing Discovery over the Amazonian Rain Forest: http://www.mpg.de/495047/pressRelease20040224, in English.
27  For example: (Rummel et al., 2007) Seasonal variation of ozone deposition to a tropical rain forest in southwest Amazonia.
28  (Nobre, 2005) Is the Amazon Forest a Sitting Duck for Climate Change? Models Need yet to Capture the Complex Mutual Conditioning between Vegetation and Rainfall.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 15

observations and model results discussed in several climate. Controlling rainfall also means controlling clouds - are the primary factors that determine the di-
studies, I pondered the trending question at the time: convection, which means that these vast forests inter- rection and intensity of the rain-bringing winds, much
with global warming, will the rainforest in the Amazon fere with a powerful conveyor belt of mass and energy: more so than surface temperature gradients.
wither and die? the Hadley circulation33. By regulating rainfall, biology
may set the strength of the trade winds from the At- Thus, a forested region that evaporates as much or even
Over thousands29 or, most likely, even millions of years30, lantic, drawing the required moisture inland from the more water than an adjacent ocean surface – and that
the South American rainforest has evolved its lush bio- open ocean. generates far more condensation in the form of rain pro-
ta with no signs of having ever been halted by extreme duction – will draw moisture-laden air currents inland
weather, such as drought or freezing. However, over the During the same period, Victor Gorshkov and Anastas- from the sea, precisely bringing rain to the forested area.
same time period, it is unlikely that the impact of exter- sia Makarieva, broadening their theory about biotic By contrast, if the forest were removed, there would be
nal climate on the continent has remained benign, espe- regulation of the environment34, examined the mech- much less evaporation inland than over the adjacent
cially considering cosmic interferences and their known anisms linking plant transpiration with physical effects ocean and a consequent decrease in condensation, thus
relationships with pronounced global climate changes31. in the atmosphere. From the surprising findings of resulting in a reversal of net moisture flow, i.e. from land
their analysis, they developed the biotic pump of at- to sea37, creating a desert where once there was a forest.
In the face of external climate adversity, how could this mospheric moisture theory35. This theory explains how
magnificent biome resist extinction? There are suffi- transpiration and condensation processes that are me- Among the predictions based on the biotic pump the-
cient lines of evidence indicating that the biosphere is diated and manipulated by the trees change the atmo- ory put forward by Makarieva and Gorshkov, one hy-
able not only endure but can also change, modulate spheric pressure and dynamics, resulting in increased pothesis suggests that droughts in native forests are
and even regulate its own environment32. moisture supply from the ocean moving inland where counterpoised by vigorous transpiration from the trees.
there are forested landmasses. This prediction goes against common sense because
A forested region gen- The rainforests of South Amer- anybody knows that if you leave a pot-plant unwatered
erates far more conden- ica are among the most dense, Makarieva et al. found that water vapor condensation for a few days, the plant will wither and may even die.
sation in the form of rain diverse and complex terrestri- in the atmosphere generates a local decrease in pres-
production than the ad- Amazonia, the world’s heart
jacent ocean and draws
al biomes on the planet. Based sure and produces dynamic power that accelerates the
air from the sea to the on rainfall mechanisms in the winds across the resulting pressure gradients36. The How can we understand water circulation by looking at the landscape?
land, which brings more green-ocean, one can imagine crucial point of the theory is that surface evaporation Water irrigates and drains the soils in a similar way to blood, which irrigates
rain to the forested area. and drains body tissues. If rivers are analogous to veins, draining used
how these forests can regulate gradients – hand in hand with decisive condensation in
water and returning it to its origin in the ocean, where are the arteries of the
natural system? The arteries are the aerial rivers, bringing us fresh water
29  (Baker et al., 2001) The history of South American tropical precipitation for the past 25,000 years.
30  (Hooghiemstra et al., 2002) Evolution of forests in the northern Andes and Amazonian lowlands during the Tertiary and Quaternary. that has been renewed via ocean evaporation. To complete the circulatory
31  (Berger and Yin, 2012) Astronomical Theory and Orbital Forcing.
32  (Foley and Costa, 2003) Green surprise? How terrestrial ecosystems could affect earth’s climate; (Gorshkov et al., 2004) Revising the fundamentals of ecological knowledge: the biota–environment interaction;
system, only the heart is missing; it is the pump that drives the flow of the
(Pielke and Avissar, 1998) Interactions between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems: influence on weather and climate. aerial arteries. The biotic pump theory explains that the power propelling
33  (Poveda and Mesa, 1997) Feedbacks between hydrological processes in tropical South America and large-scale ocean-atmospheric phenomena.
34  (Gorshkov et al., 2000) Biotic Regulation of the Environment: Key Issues of Global Change. the winds and channeling the aerial rivers must be attributed to the great
35  (Makarieva and Gorshkov, 2007) Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver of the hydrological cycle on land.
36  (Makarieva et al., 2013) Where do winds come from?
rainforest, which functions as the heart of the water cycle.
37  Already considering and excluding the effects of global circulation associated with inertial movements and accelerations.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 16

This idea also contradicts the knowledge of ecophysi- that atmospheric water continues to be imported, out-
ologists, who believe that when rainfall stops and the balancing the drought and ensuring forest continuity.
water content in the soil decreases, plants close their The biotic pump theory is steadily gaining acceptance39
stomata and stop transpiring to retain water. At the and already has observational evidence40.
same time, it provides a clue to the long-standing eco-
physiological enigma: why photosynthesis has evolved 1.4) Aerial rivers: fresh water through airborne arteries
to be so “wasteful” of water vapor.
A glance at a world map reveals interesting arrange-
Surprisingly, Scott Saleska et al. published observations ments and symmetries in the distribution of forests and
that corroborate the theoretical predictions of Ma- deserts around the globe, with three specific belts that
karieva and Gorshkov in the scientific journal Science38. particularly attract our attention: a belt of forest around
During the peak of the 2005 drought, the most affected the Equator and two of desert around the Tropics of Can-
parts of the Amazon were those that had “greened” the cer and of Capricorn. This geography of contrasting land-
most, i.e., a greater number of new leaves had sprout- scapes is easily explained by the Hadley Circulation41.
ed in tree canopies (as observed by the MODIS sensor
on the Terra satellite) in areas where less rain had fallen Under the influence of The incident solar radiation in the
(according to TRMM satellite records). the Hadley circulation,equatorial zone is greater than
the south-central portion
at higher latitudes; therefore,
of South America should
The findings of this study based on satellite images due to physical effects, there is a
tend toward aridity.
were already supported by surface-based measure- great updraft of air in this region,
ments from the LBA project flux towers, which had ob- which cools and leads to the formation of rain, favoring
served no decrease in transpiration from trees during the proliferation of forests. The air that has risen and
the dry seasons. This finding suggests that under subsequently lost its moisture needs to go somewhere
drought conditions, trees with deep roots (and access so, in both hemispheres, it moves toward the subtrop-
to a large amount of groundwater) follow an internal ics. When it descends again and warms up, this dry air
program to maintain or increase transpiration. In this absorbs moisture from the surface, which favors the
way, the transpiration of water vapor at surface levels, creation of deserts.
and the corresponding condensation in clouds, main-
tain the conveyor belt of moist air being transported However, there are exceptions to this general rule and
from the adjacent oceans. The significance of this is the southern-central portion of South America is one
38  (Saleska et al., 2007) Amazon forests green-up during 2005 drought.
39  For example: (Sheil and Murdiyarso, 2009) How Forests Attract Rain: An Examination of a New Hypothesis.
40  (Poveda et al., 2014) Seasonal precipitation patterns along pathways of South American low-level jets and aerial rivers.
41  Hadley cell definition: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadley_cell, in English.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 17

Flying rivers: telling a lovely story incorrect, but explains almost nothing. Like, for exam- mighty Amazon River (which has a flow rate of 200 mil-
ple, why deserts exist or why water vapor from the sea lion liters per second, or 17 billion tons per day).
In 2006, contemplating the Amazon forest from the top of an LBA proj-
ect study tower, we exchanged the first ideas that led to the adventure, heterogeneously moves inland onto the continents.
research, outreach and environmental education project Rios Voadores Nearly three decades after
Aerial rivers connect the mois-
[Flying Rivers] with aviator Gerard Moss42. With funding from Petrobras Salati et al., when comparing the chemical signatures 43 ture-laden trade winds from Salati’s findings, José Maren-
and the participation of Enéas Salati, a pioneer in studies on moisture the equatorial Atlantic with
of oceanic water vapor entering the great theater of go et al.46 described the cir-
recycling in the Amazon, as well as other leading scientists, Moss fol- the winds that blow over the
lowed the water vapor rivers for years in his single-engine plane, collect- Amazonia with the corresponding signatures of runoff culation that connects the
Amazon as far as the Andes,
ing numerous samples for analysis, capturing the public’s attention in the water returning to the ocean through the Amazon Riv- and from there, depending onmoisture-laden trade winds
adventure he created. The project also did an extraordinary job in envi- er, observed that a significant portion of the water that from the equatorial Atlantic
the season, over to the south-
ronmental education in schools and through the Internet, often posting
had come inland as vapor by the aerial channel did not ern part of South America. with the winds that blow over
the routes of flying rivers on social networks to show people how water is
brought to them. The most valuable result from this project was its ability leave by the terrestrial channel44. the Amazon as far as the Andes, and from there, depend-
to touch people’s emotional side through ludic stimulation, adventure and ing on the season, over to the southern part of South
scientific engagement, awakening in them a feeling of appreciation for The authors concluded that the Amazon must be ex- America. Although the authors framed their findings in
the environment, water and the forest.
porting this water vapor to other regions of the con- the context of low-level jets, the concept is very similar
of them. Influenced by Hadley Circulation, this region tinent and irrigating water basins other than the Am- to that of atmospheric rivers. As per their explanations, a
should tend towards arid conditions. You just need to azon. Preliminary analyses conducted at the time on system of monsoons similar to that in Asia also operates
look at the Atacama Desert, on the other side of the rainwater collected in Rio de Janeiro found signs that in South America. Due to the effects of the rainforest (for-
Andes, or the Namib and Kalahari deserts in Africa and some of it came from inland sources and not the ocean est geysers) and of the Andes (a 6-km high barrier), the
the Australian desert. Latitudinally speaking, they are all right close by. More specifically, this water had passed persistent moist Amazonian air makes a bend near Acre
aligned with the fortunate green area that is responsible through the Amazon. This research group was the first and, during the summer, carries copious amounts of wa-
for 70% of the continent’s GDP, and forms a quadrangle to suggest that rains in South America outside the Am- ter vapor down to the afore-mentioned lucky quadran-
bounded by Cuiabá to the north, São Paulo to the east, azon region could actually be fed by long range conti- gle, countering the trend towards aridity in this region.
Buenos Aires to the south, and the Andes to the west. nental water vapor transport.
Josefina Arraut47 et al. recently conducted a climato-
Schools teach students that water evaporates from the The concept of atmospheric rivers was introduced in logical review of aerial rivers over South America, esti-
sea, “comes” inland, falls as rain, is collected in surface 1992 by Reginald Newell and Nicholas Newell45 to de- mating the associated vapor transport and introducing
rivers and returns to the sea. By making the connection scribe filamentary flows in the lower atmosphere ca- a new concept of “aerial lakes”, places that accumulate
between water evaporation at sea and its advection pable of transporting large amounts of water as vapor, atmospheric backwater and hold stocks of precipita-
toward land, this simplistic water cycle concept is not typically at greater volumes than those carried by the ble water vapor.
42  Flying Rivers Project: http://riosvoadores.com.br/english/, in English.
43  Defined by the use of tracers that carry isotopic signatures. Isotopes are said to be two or more atoms with the same number of protons but different masses. A good analogy is to think of twins with identical features except for weight. Isotopic signature is the numerical relationship between the immense multitude of
atomic “twins” in a material or substance. Water can contain various combinations of oxygen isotopic twins (16O and 18O) and hydrogen isotopic twins (1H and 2H), generating water molecules with different masses. The proportion of these atomic twins that occurs in seawater, for example, changes with evaporation (the
lighter ones float first) and with rain (the heavier ones precipitate first). Thus, when analyzing the isotopic signature of a water or vapor sample, it is possible to know if it came from the ocean or the forest.
44  (Salati et al., 1979) Recycling of Water in the Amazon Basin : An Isotopic Study; (Matsui et al., 1976) Isotopic hydrology in the Amazonia, 2, Relative discharges of the Negro and Solimões rivers through 18O concentrations.
45  (Newell and Newell, 1992) Tropospheric Rivers? - A Pilot Study.
46  (Marengo et al., 2004) Climatology of the low-level jet east of the Andes as derived from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis: Characteristics and temporal variability.
47  (Arraut et al., 2012) Aerial Rivers and Lakes: Looking at Large-Scale Moisture Transport and Its Relation to Amazonia and to Subtropical Rainfall in South America.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 18

Extreme events: life’s checks and balances disappearance of water vapor in the atmosphere by con-
densation”50. Paulo Nobre subsequently presented the
With global warming, there is greater accumulation of energy in the
atmosphere, which increases the probability of more intense climate authors with the following problem: “The question that
phenomena. This trend was predicted by meteorologists decades ago. arises… is to understand why hurricanes do not develop
However, the greater intensity and frequency of these occurrences is now over tropical forests, like the Amazon, where supplies of
being observed decades ahead of schedule. There must be a factor in
water vapor provided by the forest and their elimination,
the complexity of the climate system that can explain the acceleration of
these effects. Geological records show that extreme climates have already in the form of tropical rain, are so abundant.” 51
occurred in Earth’s history, long before mankind appeared. However, con-
trary to what one would expect after cataclysms, all evidence always point The services that the forest In response, Makarieva and
to a resilient stabilizing recovery that lessens the extremes. Purely geo- provides to the climate include
Gorshkov showed why a
physical systems do not have this ability. Only life and its self-regulatory an insurance against destructive
processes offer satisfactory explanations for the Earth’s climate history.52 large land surface covered
weather events, softening the
force of wind-borne energy.
by forest is, theoretically,
With the concept of aerial rivers well established and an impediment to the for-
gaining in credibility, Dominick Spracklen48 et al. de- mation of hurricanes and other anomalous weather
veloped a new approach correlating a surface covered patterns including droughts and floods. In their expla-
by vegetation that is exposed to air moving within an nation, localized turbulent friction of the actively trans-
aerial river (measured by the cumulative leaf area in- piring forest canopy, which results in uniform rainfall
dex along the path) with rainfall downstream along rates over large areas, and wind traction due to the
the same path taken by that air mass. Specifically, an biotic pump over larger distances greatly reduce the
aerial river connects moisture-donating regions with chance of forming storms such as tornadoes or hurri-
moisture-receiving locations. Hence, forests that lie up- canes. Recorded hurricane paths confirm that a milder
stream are critically important. The authors found that environment exists in areas covered by extensive for-
the Amazon is in fact the headwater of the aerial sourc- ests and the oceans just nearby53.
es of most rainfall in South America.
In addition to all the other services that forests provide for
1.5) Wrinkled canopy: wind-break the climate, they even offer insurance against destructive
weather events, softening the force of wind-borne energy.
Makarieva and Gorshkov49 introduced a new physical Other classic functions of forests in regulating the water
definition for hurricanes, cyclones and tornados: “...explo- cycle on land are well known, such as favoring groundwa-
sions reversed and prolonged in time due to the volumetric ter recharge and flood mitigation54, among many others.
48  (Spracklen et al., 2012) Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests.
49  (Makarieva et al., 2008) On the validity of representing hurricanes as Carnot heat engine.
50  According to the authors: “The driving force of all hurricane processes is a rapid release, as in compressed spring, of potential energy previously accumulated in the form of saturated water vapor in the atmospheric column
during a prolonged period of water vapor evaporation under the action of the absorbed solar radiation.” (Makarieva et al., 2014) Condensational power of air circulation in the presence of a horizontal temperature gradient.
51  (Nobre P., 2009a) Peer Review Question Interactive comment on “On the validity of representing hurricanes as Carnot heat engine”.
52  (Gorshkov et al., 2000) Biotic Regulation of the Environment.
53  Storm track map showing all recorded paths of hurricanes; the equatorial regions containing forests and their oceanic surroundings are free of such storms: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_track Track, in English.
54  Flood risk alleviation example: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/fr/URGC-7QJDH7, in English.
The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 19
 Bearing in mind the extensive, elaborate effects that Amazon forest on climate55. Using a general circulation
forests have on climate as demonstrated by science, model (GCM56) of the atmosphere coupled with a veg-
what can we expect from the devastation of these for- etation module (SiB57), the authors found that when
ests? To assess the impacts of deforestation on climate, forests were entirely replaced by degraded pasture in
a growing number of field experiments, modeling and the model, there was a significant increase in the aver-
observational studies, and, more recently, theoreti- age surface temperature (approximately 2.5°C) in con-
cal analyses have been made. What are the projected junction with decreases in annual evapotranspiration
consequences of deforestation, and what has already (30% reduction), rainfall (25% reduction) and surface
been observed? runoff (20% reduction). There was also an increase in
the duration of the dry season in the southern half of
2.1) Virtual deforestation: simulating the Amazon basin.
the annihilation of trees
2) Deforestation leads Over the next two decades, other studies provided ad-
One of the greatest virtues of climate models is their ditional details and more general results that support-
to an inhospitable ability to simulate future scenarios. This type of exer- ed these conclusions. Deborah Lawrence and Karen
cise is not predictive in the physical sense; instead, it is Vandecar recently conducted a literature review58 on
climate the only tool for analyzing complex systems and mak- the impacts of tropical deforestation on climate, con-
ing informed extrapolations in situations where the rel- cluding that several GCMs agree that regional-scale de-
evant physical theories are not yet available. forestation would lead to a warmer, drier climate over
the deforested area. The models that simulate com-
These simulations are valuable for specific situations, plete deforestation of the Amazon predict a climate
such as exploring climate risks associated with defor- warming of 0.1-3.8°C (average of 1.9°C) and a rainfall
estation. In a virtual environment, such as a flight simula- reduction of around 140-640 mm per year (average of
tor, it is possible to repeatedly evaluate disaster scenari- 324 mm/year, or a decrease of 10-15%).
os, scrutinizing the decisive factors, the initial conditions
and the potential consequences of risky maneuvers. However, deforestation can have much more seri-
ous implications. In 1997, German Poveda and Oscar
In 1991, Carlos Nobre led one of the most cited stud- Mesa59 proposed the role of a hydrometeorological
ies simulating the effects of total deforestation of the bridge for the Amazon rainforest, connecting the two
55  (Nobre C. et al., 1991) Amazonian Deforestation and Regional Climate Change.
56  Definition of GCM by Lawrence and Vandecar (2014): “... they are global, three-dimensional computer models of the climate system that operate on a large scale... The most recent include representations of the
atmosphere, oceans, and land surface. [...] and an explicit representation of plant canopies and their effect on energy and water fluxes, including radiative and turbulent transfers, and the physical and biological
controls of evapotranspiration.”
57  (Sellers et al., 1986) Simple Biosphere Model.
58  (Lawrence and Vandecar, 2014) Effects of tropical deforestation on climate and agriculture.
59  (Poveda and Mesa, 1997) Feedbacks between hydrological processes in tropical South America and large-scale ocean-atmospheric phenomena.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 20

great oceans, suggesting the existence of climatic cross
effects between the two oceans, via the atmosphere,
mediated by the rainforest.
Following in a similar direction, Paulo Nobre et al.
more recently studied the effects of deforestation on
rainfall in the Amazon using numerical simulations that
included or excluded the responses of the oceans to
deforestation scenarios61. Comparing simulations per-
formed with a typical atmospheric GCM and a GCM
coupled to an ocean model that simulates the internal
conditions of the oceans (e.g., salinity and currents),
these authors found a significantly greater reduction
in precipitation when the GCM coupled to the ocean
model was run for a complete deforestation scenario in
the Amazon; a 42% decrease in rainfall was projected
when taking into account internal ocean mechanisms,
compared to a 26% decrease in rainfall when these
mechanisms were not represented in the model. The
oceans have been there all along; including their inter-
nal responses allows for more realistic simulations.
Many of the model projections for the consequences
of deforestation have already been observed, especial-
ly the expansion of the dry season. However, these vir-
tual experiments indicated that a prolonged dry sea-
son would occur after the complete destruction of the
Amazon forest but in fact it is already being observed
after the clearcutting of just under 19% of the forest.
Therefore, these models appear to underestimate the
negative consequences of deforestation in simulated
60  (Nobre P. et al., 2009b) Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change in a Coupled Model Simulation.
61  Using only the observed historical series of sea surface temperatures.
62  Already considering and excluding the effects of global circulation associated with inertial movements and accelerations.
scenarios. The results of more recent projections that
include ocean processes suggest even worse condi-
tions and sound alarm bells.
The elimination of the for-
60 est – the main continental However, one must also
condensation agent – is consider the biotic pump
equivalent to switching off the
atmospheric moisture pump.
theory and its predictions
of reduced rainfall. Un-
like conventional numerical models, a physical theo-
ry builds its blocks of knowledge based solely on the
fundamental laws of nature. If the theory is correct, it
makes it possible to quantitatively predict physical ef-
fects based only on an analysis of relevant scenarios
and logic.
Makarieva and Gorshkov predicted that complete de-
forestation of the Amazon would reduce rainfall, pri-
marily as a result of the dissipation of the low-pressure
effect (suction) associated with condensation, which
is linked to a decrease in surface evaporation. Because
the biotic pump theory also accredits the availability of
water vapor for rainfall in the Amazon to the ability of
the forest to transpire, a total annihilation of the main
transpiration agent could completely stop the biotic
pump once and for all.
The theory suggests that when the pump that draws
moist air to the continent is turned off, the moisture flow
would change direction when condensation over the
ocean became greater (whilst weaker than the biotic
pump, the oceanic condensation pump is always turned
The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 21
on), which would lead to arid conditions on land62. climate models and even theoretical analyses have clar- For the most deforested portion has a profound effect on
ified the local and transitory nature of this effect, which of the Amazon, a progressive the agricultural sector.
The climate models used to simulate deforestation basically depends on the existence of forests surround- delay is already observed in
the onset of the wet season,
have not yet included this new physical theory, so they ing deforested areas and the extension of these forests. Thus, in the discussion
which has a profound effect
do not project this effect, which could result in a 100% The increase in rainfall becomes a decrease as soon as on the agricultural sector. regarding deforestation,
decrease in rainfall. the surviving forested area crosses a certain threshold a question of doubt no
of distance from the cleared area. From then on, rainfall longer lingers on its direct and indirect effects on the
2.2) Real deforestation: eagle eyes in space Satellite data for rain and the decreases. decrease in rainfall but rather moves onto the issue of
presence of forest have shown the actual extent of deforestation. During 2011/2012,
Deforestation is both real and immense, and its effects a decrease in rainfall down-Research by Spracklen et a “mere” 4,571 km2 were deforested in the Brazilian
wind of deforested areas.
on the climate are well documented. Studies using mi- al.65, using satellite data for Amazon. Compared with deforestation rates in peak
crometeorological towers have shown that the replace- rainfall and the presence of forest, showed that where years, such as 2004 (27,772 km2), this seems to be a
ment of forest by pasture leads to increased surface deforestation has occurred, there is a decrease in rain- modest amount. Brazil deserves recognition for having
temperatures and decreased evapotranspiration, which fall in the downwind direction. In 60% of the tropics, achieved this reduction. The speed and efficiency with
is analogous to the model predictions63. Satellite obser- air passing over dense forests produces at least twice which Brazil achieved this decrease in the deforesta-
vations have shown that during the dry season, in accor- as much rainfall as air passing over deforested areas. tion rate suggest that the strategy adopted should be
dance with the biotic pump theory, evapotranspiration Although these authors have not yet considered the applied to eliminate and reverse further deforestation
in forests has continued to occur or even increased, but mechanisms and effects of the biotic pump theory, they in Brazil and worldwide.
Observations have shown that that this is not the case in have produced strong evidence that the negative im-
evapotranspiration of the forests deforested areas64. pact of deforestation on climate is not only felt locally, Despite the encouraging news, this seemingly small
continues to occur (or even in- but can also affect other regions both close by and afar. deforestation rate would be sufficient to clear an area
creases) during the dry season,
as predicted by the biotic pump
Similar data have also indi- equivalent to the entire country of Costa Rica in a mere
cated that forest transpira-
theory; however, this is not ob- Makarieva et al. placed the findings of Spracklen into per- ten years. Furthermore, a reduction in annual defor-
served in deforested areas. tion is much greater than spective by applying the biotic pump concept and quan- estation rates attenuates the momentary perception
that determined by the titatively explaining which physical factors are responsible of loss and masks the cumulative deforestation of the
models, which partially explains the underestimation, for the reduction in rainfall downwind of deforested areas. Amazon, which is exceedingly serious.
in large-scale models, of the reduction in rainfall caused They noted that this decrease in rainfall may be consider-
by deforestation. Although some observational studies ably greater than that indicated by Spracklen’s group66. In With regard to climate, what especially matters is the
have shown an increase in localized rainfall with defor- the most deforested portion of the Amazon, there already total area that has been deforested and its spatial distri-
estation, more comprehensive studies, simulations with is a progressive delay in the onset of the wet season, which bution. Diógenes Alves67 calculated total deforestation
63  For example: (Gash et al., 1996) Amazonian Deforestation and Climate; (von Randow et al., 2004) Comparative measurements and seasonal variations in energy and carbon exchange over forest and pasture in southwest Amazonia.
64  (Huete et al., 2006) Amazon rainforests green-up with sunlight in dry season; (Saleska et al. 2007) Amazon forests green-up during 2005 drought.
65  (Spracklen et al., 2012) Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests.
66  (Makarieva et al., 2013) Why does air passage over forest yield more rain? Examining the coupling between rainfall, pressure and atmospheric moisture content.
67  (Alves 2007) Science and technology and sustainable development in Brazilian Amazon.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 22

at 663 mil km2 in 2004 based on a compilation of pi- Cumulative deforestation: 762.979 km2
oneering satellite investigations. By aggregating the
The total deforested area is greater than the size of an area three times
latest figures from the PRODES project of the Nation- the State of São Paulo in Brazil, or the size of two Germanys or two
al Institute for Space Research (INPE), total cumulative Japans. An area unit easily grasped by Brazilians, the soccer field (4,136
deforestation reached 762,979 km2 in 2013. m2), gives an idea of the magnitude of the devastation: 184 million soccer
fields68 - almost one soccer field deforested in the Amazon for every
Brazilian. Placed in the context of time, the figures are staggering: 12,635
From a climate-damage perspective, what we have in soccer fields deforested per day, 526 per hour, 8.8 fields or 36,291 m2
Amazonia is a gigantic liability of destruction of the per minute, or 605 m2 per second without stopping over the last 40 years.
green-ocean rainforest. So there is no reason whatsoev- To comprehend the enormity of these figures, you need to extend your
imagination beyond these analogies. A fictional tractor that is operating
er to celebrate the relatively lower rates of clearcutting
a 3-m-wide front blade would need to accelerate to nearly the speed of
in recent years, especially since, after the adoption of the a jet plane (726 km/h) to deforest the clearcut area in the Amazon at the
new Forest Code (2011) with its wide amnesty for those pace recorded from space-borne imagery. Because a tractor deforests
who deforested, a distinct tendency towards further in- much more slowly (0.24 – 0.36 ha/h69, or ~0.8 km/h, if the area is re-
stricted to a 3-m wide strip), over 900 tractors with a 3-m blade would be
creases in the annual rates has already been observed.
required, side-by-side simultaneously cutting down the forest and forming
a destructive front nearly 3-km wide. An even more striking comparison is
Going by INPE’s calculations, the extent of clear-felled that of a 2-km wide “deforestation road” which would cover the distance
forest in Brazil (not taking into account other countries from the Earth to the Moon (380,000 km).
that form the Amazon basin) reached 18.85% of the
original forest area in 201270. However, destruction is can infer from the information and estimates available,
not uniform because there is a high concentration of these areas can have a significant impact on climate.
clearcutting in the so-called Arc of Fire (or Arc of Defor-
estation)71. If the vast expanse of forest that has been Dalton Valeriano led a pioneering study on land degra-
shaved totally bare is already extremely serious for dation72 in the state of Mato Grosso from 2007 to 2010,
the climate, the situation is even worse when we also and found “only” 7,856 km2 of forest that had been clear-
consider the areas of rainforest that have been grave- cut but that there was a further 32,926 km2 of degraded
ly-wounded. forest areas. If we add up the clearcut and degraded ar-
eas, very little is left of what originally gave the State of
Logging, gradual deforestation and fire produce exten- Mato Grosso (Dense Forest in Portuguese) its name.
sive areas of degraded forests that are rarely included
in official tallies of forest destruction but, from what we During the same period, INPE mapped 64,205 km2 of
68  Deforested area = 762,979 km2 / 0.004136 km2 = 184,472,679 soccer fields.
69  (Viana, 2012) Máquinas e Métodos de Desmatamento (Deforestation Machines and Methods).
70  INPE deforestation monitoring database interface: http://www.dpi.inpe.br/prodesdigital/prodesmunicipal.php. Lista (a table) and Consolida (sums for the considered area unit), in Portuguese.
71  Percentage of deforested area until 2012: state of Tocantins (TO) 75%, state of Maranhão (MA) 72%, state of Rondônia (RO) 41%, state of Mato Grosso (MT) 40%, state of Pará (PA) 22% and state of Acre (AC) 13%.
72  Prodes report 2008, pdf: http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/Relatorio_Prodes2008.pdf, in Portuguese.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 23

degraded forest versus 39,026 km2 of clearcut forest in
the Brazilian Amazon. Using the relative proportion be-
tween these two distinct areas, the proportion of de-
graded forest can be extrapolated for the entire Brazil-
ian Amazon. Based on this estimate, by 2013 the total
degraded area may have hit the mark of 1,255,100 km2.
Added to the total measured clearcut area, the cumu-
lative impact of human occupation on the biome may
have reached 2,018,079 km2.

Amongst the 200-plus countries in the world, only 13

of them cover an area greater than this. This estimate
suggests that the degraded forest in the Brazilian Am-
azon may have reached as much as 29.44% of the orig-
inal area73. When this is added to the clearcut area, it
suggests that as much as 47.34% of the forest may have
been directly impacted by climate-destabilizing human
activities. For the Pan-Amazon region, this aggregated
effect in the Brazilian Amazon represents from 26.68%
to 29.03% of the original forest area when considering
both deforestation and estimated degradation74.

However, the affected area may be even greater from

an ecological perspective because forests adjacent
to degraded or clearcut areas suffer both directly and
indirectly from the effects of environmental changes
(both biogeophysical and biogeochemical) in neigh-
boring areas75.
In the degradation process, canopy destruction, which
often exceeds 60% of the vegetation coverage76, chang-
es the structural, ecological and physiological charac-
teristics of forests, compromising their environmental
qualities and capabilities.
Figure 1 Cumulative deforestation from 2000 to 2010 (lighter red) and prior to that period (darker red) in South America77.
73  Calculation using the measurement from Espírito-Santo et al. (2014) for the remnant forest in the Brazilian Amazon [3,500,000 km2] added to the area of cumulative deforestation [762,979 km2], reaching
4,262,979 km2 of original forest in the Brazilian Amazon.
74  Impact using the total area of original forest estimated by current coverage (remnant forests + cumulative deforestation) based respectively on Espírito-Santo et al. (2014) with 7,562,979 km2 and Eva et al. (2005)
with 6,943,468 km2.
75  (Laurance & Williamson, 2001) Positive Feedbacks among Forest Fragmentation, Drought, and Climate Change in the Amazon.
76  (Valeriano et al., 2008) Monitoramento da Cobertura Florestal da Amazônia por Satélites. Sistemas PRODES: http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/index.php; DETER: http://www.obt.inpe.br/deter/; DEGRAD:
http://www.obt.inpe.br/degrad/; e QUEIMADAS: http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/; 2007-2008 [Monitoring of the Forest Coverage of the Amazon by Satellite from 2007-2008 using the systems PRODES - Monitor-
ing The Brazilian Amazon Rainforest by Satellite; DETER – Detection of Deforestation in Real Time; DEGRAD - Mapping Forest Degradation In The Brazilian Amazon; and QUEIMADAS - Monitoring of Fires In Near
Real Time], all links in Portuguese.
77  University of Maryland Global Forest Cover: http://earthenginepartners.appspot.com/science-2013-global-forest, in English.
The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 24
 The forest has survived volcanism, glaciation, meteors that have emerged from the wrongful, uncontrolled and
and continental drift for over 50 million years. But now, terrible use of certain inventions in the Anthropocene78,
in less than 50 years, it is under threat from the actions i.e., the new era in which humanity has become a geo-
of mere human beings. There is a parallel between the logical force capable of changing the face of the planet.
Greek legend of Achilles’ heel and the importance of
the great Amazon forest for the Earth’s climate. Like 3.1) Point of no return: the misstep into the abyss
the Greek hero, the Amazon, which could be thought
of as a massive assemblage of extraordinary living or- If we imagine the metaphor of a vehicle (the great for-
ganisms, surely must possess some innate capability est) traveling along a bumpy road (climate), with flex-
that made it an invincible warrior for tens of millions of ible tires that absorb and cushion the impact of the
years, surviving the geophysical cataclysms that have potholes (eco-climate resilience), how deep would the
3) The Achilles’ heel ravaged the planet from time to time. climate hole need to be to burst the tire of the green-
ocean Amazon?
of the Amazon: Studies have revealed the great forest’s ability to over-
come the elements, from its humidifying atmospheric The effects of the most
The intact green-ocean forest has
the invincible conditioning passing through cloud nucleation to its many resources to absorb the ef-
severe drought in a cen-
fects of droughts and can completely
biotic pump, all suggesting elaborate mechanisms of tury were felt in 2005. Five
hero falls invincibility. So where is the weak point in this system?
regenerate itself over several years.
years later, the effects of
the 2010 drought were even greater and more exten-
The answer is related to degradation and deforestation. sive79. In 2010, cave paintings made during the glacial
era thousands of years ago, when the sea level was
Because the great rainforest plays a key role providing 100m lower than it is today, were discovered on rocks
services that benefit the stability of local, regional and at the bottom of the Negro river. The physical explana-
global climates, its physical disruption means leading tions for these two mega-events remain inconclusive;
the “great warrior” to its defeat in these roles, like the however, numerous observations80, both from on land
rupturing of Achilles’ tendon, making him lose the war. and from space, leave no doubt about the damage and
Here, the enemy’s arrows are chainsaws, bulldozers, fire, losses endured by the forest81. These findings indicate
smoke, soot and other factors related to human activities that the Amazon tire is already showing signs of fatigue,
78  Anthropocene, a planet transformed by humanity: http://www.anthropocene.info/en/anthropocene , in English.
79  (Marengo et al., 2011) The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region.
80  For example: (Brando et al., 2014) Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought-fire interactions; (Saatchi et al., 2013) Persistent effects of a severe drought on Amazonian forest canopy; (Fu et
al., 2013) Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection; (Marengo et al., 2013) Recent Extremes of Drought and Flooding in Amazonia:
Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation; (Phillips et al., 2009) Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest; (Cox et al., 2008) Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution; (Hutyra et
al., 2005) Climatic variability and vegetation vulnerability in Amazônia.
81  (Nepstad et al. 1999) Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire. For example: extensive tree mortality, which significantly changes the vegetation structure and aborts the normal
regeneration mechanisms in clearings.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 25

or at least significant scars from the impacts it has suf-
fered.
Under stable green-ocean conditions, the forest has a
broad repertoire of ecophysiological responses to ab-
sorb the effects of such droughts82, completely regener-
ating itself over the years. However, in extensive areas,
especially along the Arc of Deforestation, one can al-
ready perceive the “multiple organ failure” of fragment-
ed forest remnants and even of less fragmented areas83.
whatsoever falls in the dry season - something that did
not use to happen but is now becoming increasing-
ly common -, organic matter on the forest floor does
dry to the point at which it becomes flammable. Fires
penetrate the forest, burning surface roots and killing
large trees85. All these deforestation side-effects are
maximized and the armies of human enemies quickly
strike the vulnerable warrior’s heel. When will the forest
fall forever? Several studies have suggested an answer:
when it crosses the point of no return86.

Several harmful factors combine to the effect that The point of no return is the beginning of a chain re-
droughts resulting from external pressure cause more action, like a row of standing dominoes. When the first
damage than usual, reducing the forest’s ability to re- one falls, all the others will fall. Once brutally and irrep-
generate itself. The first and foremost among such fac- arably unbalanced, the living system in the forest will
tors is deforestation itself. Without the trees, all the ser- ultimately leap over to another state of equilibrium.
vices that stretch of forest provided for the climate clearly
disappear, and this in turn affects the remaining forest. 3.2) Savannization and desertification:
Forest removal disrupts the biotic pump of atmospher- extensive or unthinkable damage?
ic moisture, weakening its ability to import moist air to
the region, generating rain. When the forest is removed Stable equilibrium is a
With drought, fires and forest
by burning, smoke and soot cause a breakdown in the degradation, savanna is favored
state similar to that of a
mechanisms of cloud nucleation and result in polluted in a new climate equilibrium to
ball inside a bowl, which,
the detriment of the forest.
and dissipative clouds that do not produce rain84. under normal conditions,
will always gravitate towards the deepest part of the
Deforestation disrupts the rain The floor of a rainfor- container. With increasing oscillations of the bowl, the
mechanisms. Without rain, the est in pristine state is ball moves ever closer to the edges. When movements
forest becomes flammable. Fire too damp to burn, even become vigorous enough to drive the ball right to the
forms in the forest, burning sur-
during the “dry” season. very edge, it will leave that first equilibrium-bowl be-
face roots and killing large trees.
However, when no rainfall hind and jump into another one.
82  (Phillips et al., 2010) Drought-mortality relationships for tropical forests.
83  (Laurance & Williamson, 2001) Positive Feedbacks among Forest Fragmentation, Drought, and Climate Change in the Amazon.
84  (Andreae et al., 2004) Smoking rain clouds over the Amazon.
85  (Nepstad et al., 2004) Amazon drought and its implications for forest flammability and tree growth: a basin-wide analysis.
86  For example: (Nobre and Borma, 2009) “Tipping points” for the Amazon forest.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 26

In 2003, Marcos Oyama and Carlos Nobre hypothesized sheds new light on policies intended only to preserve fall in savanna country, so agriculture has some chance
the savannization of the Amazon in their modeling the integrity of designated conservation areas. of continuing to be viable. But desertification resulting
study using a GCM and a vegetation equilibrium mod- from progressive deforestation, as predicted by the bi-
el87. Because climate interacts with vegetation, when These extrapolations generally consider scenarios with otic pump theory, would simply annihilate everything,
one parameter is changed, the other tends to change relatively modest decreases in rainfall and always as- including most human activities in the Amazon.
via a positive (destabilizing) or negative (stabilizing) sume that there will not be much change in wind direc-
feedback until a new equilibrium is reached. tion when the forest is gone. In this scenario, the trade What about beyond the Amazon? Because most of the
winds carrying moisture from the ocean would contin- water that irrigates the bread-basket quadrangle of
Climate and vegetation in the Amazon green-ocean are ue to bring it inland to the continent; only certain verti- southern South America originates from the Amazon,
in stable and resilient equilibrium under wet conditions. cal exchanges over the Amazon would change. the future climate of the continent may be consider-
With deforestation, the climate gradually changes and ably dryer. In a worst-case scenario, it would resemble
destabilizes until it reaches a point of no return (the However, the biotic pump theory, which explains how present-day Australia: a vast desert interior fringed on
edge of the wet bowl). The system may then take the wind strength is related to condensation, predicts that one side by strips of wetter areas near the sea.
jump to another state of equilibrium that is much drier. a significant decrease in evaporation/condensation
on land should lead to profound reduction of air con-
According to this study, there are two possible equilib- vergence over the continent associated with a radical
rium states for vegetation in the Amazon. One corre- reduction of the net moisture transport or even its
sponds to the current distribution of vegetation, where possible reversal. We might compare this land-sea re-
the rainforest covers most of the basin, while the other lationship to a tug of war: the side where more atmo-
is a state in which the rainforest in the eastern Amazon spheric condensation occurs will win the contest and
is replaced by savanna. With progressive drying, the in- draw moisture toward itself. As it is the winds that bring
troduction of fires and other large-scale alterations in moisture from the sea to the land due to the presence of
the forest, savanna will be favored in the new climate the forest, without the forest, the atmospheric air could
equilibrium, to the detriment of the forest. In the sec- cease to converge over land, which could completely
ond equilibrium state, even remnant areas of undis- eradicate rainfall in the region. Zero rainfall would lead
turbed forest will disappear, turning into savannas. to the formation of a desert, not a savanna.

This hypothesis indicates that only protecting the for- The savannization scenario projected by Oyama and
est that is still standing will not be sufficient to prevent Nobre’s model (and later detailed further by other stud-
its subsequent demise by virtue of climate change un- ies)88 would be bad enough with its annihilation of the
der the new equilibrium conditions. This perspective pure treasure of forest biodiversity. However, rain does
87  Using the same vegetation classes of SSiB. (Oyama and Nobre, 2003) A new climate-vegetation equilibrium state for Tropical South America.
88  For example: (Malhi et al., 2009) Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 27

 Climate change in Amazonia and beyond has already The undisturbed green-ocean there is some uncertain-
begun. However, whether doomsday scenarios materi- rainforest has innate capabilities
ty regarding the effective
alize or not, and how long it might take to reach such a to resist external climate impacts,
resistance of tropical rain-
such as rainfall fluctuations.
low point, depend on many unforeseeable factors, in- forests to direct human
cluding how much of the original vegetation cover will activities, and this makes it difficult to project a set date
have been altered and at what rate. for the complete and utter destruction of the forest
based solely on model simulations.
With an acceleration of deforestation and a crossing of
the point of no return - a moment which seems to be un- Lack of rain: mortal threat to the Amazon
comfortably close -, only a few decades may be needed
before the climate jumps to another equilibrium state89. In 2000, Peter Cox et al. from the Hadley Centre published a startling
article in Nature90. For the first time, the authors combined a general model

4) The future climate If both deforestation is stopped and forest regenera-

of atmospheric circulation with an interactive vegetation model in which
the carbon cycle was well detailed. Among the results, the model projected
tion occurs, the immediate threat may be deferred to a sharp, progressive and permanent decrease of rainfall in the Amazon,
of Amazonia: it has a more distant future. But this would all depend on which would lead to its gradual death. With the forest drying up, fire would
easily penetrate and large amounts of carbon would be released, resulting
the extent of remaining green-ocean rainforest and the
already arrived magnitude of external climatic forces.
in a sharp worsening of global warming. For the first time, a climate model
had predicted a terrible fate for the great rainforest. Fourteen years hence,
the new Hadley Centre model is similar to the others. It no longer sup-
Human occupation of the Amazon has triggered an presses the forest due to external effects91 as it did before. Nevertheless,
the effects of the original Hadley Centre model affected the forest through
unthinkable contest, a race in which two nefarious in- decreased rainfall, as a direct consequence of excessive CO2 in the at-
fluences – deforestation and global climate change – mosphere and the resulting warming. However, errors in rainfall prediction
compete for first place on the podium for orchestrat- may occur in climate models. It is precisely the reduced rainfall levels that
ing the final destruction of the largest and most diverse are the greatest threat to the forest. If these models do not correctly predict
the decrease in rainfall, they will not place the forest in danger. Because
rainforest on Earth92. none of the current climate models incorporate the mechanisms and effects
predicted by the biotic pump theory of atmospheric moisture, especially re-
The undisturbed rainforest has innate abilities to with- garding the potential effects of the changes in wind circulation (suppressed
stand external climate impacts, such as rainfall fluctu- large-scale convergence over dry land), their projections may be uncertain.
We may come to discover in the future that the original model from the
ations. Over the last ten years, most climate models Hadley Centre was the only one to predict the future climate of Amazonia,
have attributed some measure of resistance by the although possibly not for the correct reasons.
forest to the effects of global warming. All the same,
89  (Coe et al., 2013) Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south-southeastern Amazonia.
90  (Cox et al., 2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model.
91  (Good et al., 2013) Comparing Tropical Forest Projections from Two Generations of Hadley Centre Earth System Models, HadGEM2-ES and HadCM3LC.
92  (Malhi et al, 2008) Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 28

Roughly speaking, and without considering the debili- suggest a breakdown of the current climate system are
tating effects of forest degradation, one can crudely ex- rapidly approaching. Local- and regional-scale climate
trapolate the known history of clearcutting - ~20% of effects are being observed much earlier than expect-
the forest cover of the Brazilian Amazon removed over ed, especially in the most devastated areas, but also in
the past 40 years, already with marked effects on the more remote areas that relied on the forest for rainfall94.
climate – and project a further 40 years for the removal
of an additional 20%, we thus arrive at a total of 40% The future climate of Amazo- Thus, based on observed
of accumulated clearcutting of the forest, precisely the nia has already arrived. It is changes, the future cli-
threshold suggested by climate models93. However, the our responsibility to put scien-
mate of Amazonia has al-
tific knowledge to good use.
effects of deforestation compound the impact of fire, ready arrived. The urgent
forest degradation and climate change, leading to an and already tardy decision to take and amplify imme-
acceleration of the expected scenario. diate actions cannot wait, if there actually is a chance of
reversing the threatening situation. Investments in sci-
Despite the fact that climate models are useful, entific research focusing on the Amazon have yielded
well-founded extrapolations, past climates may not rich, substantiated and readily available information. It
offer a firm basis for predicting the future, especially is our responsibility to put this knowledge to good use.
when addressing complex systems and when the cli-
mate equilibrium is near the “edge of the bowl”, ready 4.1) Climate reciprocity: cumulative
to jump over to another equilibrium state. We will only deforestation demands immediate payment
know for certain when the future arrives, but it would
be irresponsible for us to simply sit still and wait. The limitless deforestation With a significant decrease
spree is finding that the climate
in historic annual defor-
is a judge who very well knows
Anthropogenic disturbances, although already exten- estation rates, Brazil has
how to count trees and who
sive and most likely excessive, represent the most un- neither forgets nor forgives. emerged as an example
predictable factors for projecting the final fate of the of a country that has done
Amazon. The simple reason is that we humans have part of its homework regarding climate change. For a
free will. If we choose to carry on with “business as usu- nation that has spent 40 years investing heavily in en-
al”, and especially if we opt not to repair the damage vironmental missteps and violating its own forest pro-
inflicted upon the great forest, theory suggests that tection laws, a reduction in deforestation is no mean
the whole Amazon system may collapse in less than 40 feat. However, the drop in annual deforestation rates,
years. Deforestation thresholds at which climate models while essential, is akin to using one’s hands to block a
93  (Sampaio et al., 2007) Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion.
94  (Sampaio et al., 2007).

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 29

hole at the bottom of an inflatable boat (climate) once Tree guillotine
the water that has leaked in over the last 40 years (de-
It is estimated that the Amazon biome used to house 400 or more billion
forestation) is already threatening to sink it. The limit- trees with a diameter of more than 10 cm at breast height95. Calculating
less deforestation spree is finding that the climate is the distribution of a population of trees on an area basis, it can be in-
a judge who very well knows how to count trees and ferred that clearcutting deforestation has destroyed over 42 billion trees
in Brazil alone, in the last 40 years96. Lined up, the trunks of these trees
who neither forgets nor forgives.
-with an average height of 15 m-, would cover 635 million km, or nearly
1,700 times the distance between the Earth and the Moon. This destruc-
Future deforestation, or how much of the remaining tion rate means (on average) that more than 1 billion trees are cut down
forest we can cut down, is the typical focus of discus- every year; that is nearly 3 million per day, more than 120,000 per hour,
over 2,000 per minute or 34 per second97! These figures do not include
sions on the future climate of Amazonia. Unjustifiably
the potentially greater number of trees cut down in so-called degraded
absent from such discussions, the nightmarish propor- forests. In the last four decades, nearly 6 trees in the Brazilian Amazon
tions of cumulative deforestation of the past need to were destroyed for every person on Earth, over 200 for every Brazilian.
come back into the limelight because the main aspects The climate notices these trees are gone because each decimated tree
represents, among the many severed services, less surface evaporation.
of climate reciprocity are directly related to these past
activities. Without addressing past devastation, the climate will be Nature’s fair response to so much de-
nightmares will return to haunt us. struction. The problem is that the “punishment” affects
everyone indiscriminately, not only those who defor-
Producing a daily average of approximately 4 mm of ested and encouraged deforestation but also the great
transpired water98, which is equivalent to 4 liters/m2, majority of people who were and still are against it.
the rainforest is a generous donor to favorable climate.
Once the forest is replaced with pastures, transpiration 4.2) Order of urgency: better late than never
plummets to 1 mm (if it rains at all)99, or even less when
aridification occurs. So that we can contemplate the true dimension of
what needs to be done regarding the future climate of
When we add fire, smoke and soot - with their annihi- Amazonia (and consequently of South America), let us
lating effects on the forest, clouds and rain -, to the boil- imagine a scene in the future in which Brazil might be
ing cauldron of inequities, the curse of an inhospitable attacked by a powerful enemy nation possessing secret

95  Average population of trees (DAP > 10cm) in Amazonia (sensu latissimo Eva et al, 2005, A proposal for defining the geographical Boundaries of Amazônia) = 555 (±114) /ha, that is, 55.500 (±11.400) trees/ km2
(Feldpausch et al., 2011, Height-diameter allometry of tropical forest trees); total area covered by closed canopy in Amazonia by 2004 = 6.280.468 km2 (Eva et al, 2005 including wet, dry and flooded forests);
historic area covered with forest (forest area in 2004 plus clear cut deforestation by 2004, Alves 2007) = 6.943.468 km2 (may be higher if you include deforestation accumulated outside of Brazil); Total estimated
minimum of trees in the original Amazonian biome: 385.362.474.000 (±79.155.535.200).
96  Clearcutting shaved 762.979 km2 of the original cover (in Brazil only); estimated trees removed with clearcutting = 42.345.334.500 (±8.697.960.600).
97  Temporal rhythm of cutting: 42.345.334.500 (±8.697.960.600) trees cut in 40 years; 1.058.633.363 (±217.449.015) trees per year; 2.900.365 (±595.750) trees per day; 120.848 (±24.823) trees per hour; 2.014 (±413)
trees per minute; 33,5 (±6,9) trees per second.
98  (von Randow et al., 2013) Inter-annual variability of carbon and water fluxes in Amazonian forest, Cerrado and pasture sites, as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models. (Marengo, 2004) Characteristics and
spatiotemporal variability of the Amazon River Basin Water Budget.
99  (Hodnett et al., 1996) Comparisons of long-term soil water storage behavior under pasture and forest in three areas of Amazonia.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 30

technology that uses disruptive waves emitted by sat- the United States during World War II, we have been War effort
ellites to dissipate clouds and thereby reduce rainfall. and continue to be virtually inert in the face of these
When major threats to a nation arise, the armed forces are immediately
Let’s say the enemy nation has commercial interests attacks on the forest, allowing them to continue year put on stand-by. After the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the United
that are threatened by the success of Brazil’s agricultur- after year and destroy our splendid cradle100. Who are States decided it was necessary to join World War II. In a few months, it
al sector. A rain-killing weapon could be used to stunt these people who pose such a threat to Brazil’s well-be- mounted a “war effort”. Car manufacturers started to produce tanks and
warplanes, while other non-combat factories began producing ammuni-
crops that compete with theirs, destroying harvests in ing? Why has society not risen up? Why has the Brazil-
tion, weapons and other materiel and equipment that was required. This
Brazil and causing international prices to skyrocket. If ian Army not been mobilized in the nation’s defense? war effort even reached the Amazon, with its rubber soldiers. Without such
the Brazilian secret service informed Brazilian farmers a concentrated and extraordinary effort, the allies would not have won.
about the misdeeds of that said country against them, To address the gravity of the situation we are in, we
what would their reaction be? What would society’s re- need to mount a campaign similar to a war effort, al- To continue with this practice, given the available ev-
action be? And the government’s? With all the humili- though not one directed toward conflict. The first ur- idence, is simply not justifiable. Therefore, as they be-
ation apportioned by such an outrage, we hardly need gent line of attack needs to be a “war” against igno- gin to understand that the systematic destruction of
to be a clairvoyant to imagine that the reaction would rance, an unprecedented effort to enlighten society in the forest is a shot in the foot, there is a chance that
be immediate and powerful. general, but including especially those who still cling these agents of deforestation could be convinced to
to the mistaken belief that the devastation of the for- change. The perspectives and hopes are that the erad-
Leaving the realms of fic-
Not only does the removal of ests is harmless. The perpetrators are not only those ication of ignorance regarding the essential role of for-
forests defeat agriculture, but
tion behind and returning who wield chainsaws or incendiary devices, or those ests in generating a favorable climate will in itself be
the lack (or excess) of water
to reality, we see that the who tear down the forest with anchor chains hauled a move towards converting those who deforest into
also affects energy produc-
very same outrage is al-
tion, industry and city life.
by tractors, but just as much the groups who draw up protectors, perhaps – who knows – even into forest re-
ready being perpetrated public policies and who finance, control and give leg- storers. Many examples of conversions like this already
against Brazil now, at this very moment, without the islative, legal and propaganda cover to the devasta- exist, with great advantage to all involved101.
involvement of any foreign nation. In an undeclared tion commandos. However, only a small part of society
war that has been going on over the last 40 years, hun- was and still is directly involved in the destruction of
dreds of thousands of people have dedicated them- the forests. It is this minority that pushes the nation
selves to exterminating the forests. toward the climate abyss.

The removal of the rainforests, threatening both rain- This deforesting minority is not uniform, but their cul-
fall and climate, will not only damage competitive ag- ture favors interests that are entrenched in a short-
riculture, but a lack (or excess) of water will also affect term view, regardless of the consequences. Driven by
energy production, industry, urban water supplies and immediate, narrow interests, they seem to ignore the
life in the cities in general. However, unlike Europe and fact that the removal of forests can put climate at risk.
100  N. of T. “Deitado eternamente em berço esplendido” [Laying down ethernally in splendid cradle] is a verse of the Brazilian national anthem.
101  In projects like Lucas do Rio Verde Legal: http://www.tnc.org.br/tnc-no-mundo/americas/brasil/projetos/lucas-do-rio-verde.xml; Paragominas: De vilões a mocinhos do desmatamento [from villain to good boy of deforestation]: http://www.tnc.org.br/nossas-historias/destaques/paragominas-deixa-lista-do-desmata-
mento.xml; Y Ikatu Xingu: http://www.yikatuxingu.org.br/; etc. All links in Portuguese.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 31

 Until we reach the point of no return, there are a few have been taken by the federal government to initiate
windows of opportunity for restorative action. Now is processes of control and dissuasion. Significant results
the time to engage forcefully in a healing war-effort to have been achieved. However, we need to dig much
reverse climate disaster resulting from the destruction deeper and get to the real root of the problem by ex-
of the Amazon green-ocean. Several tasks must be per- panding executive policies and mobilizing society to
formed to this end. counteract disruptive actions taken by the legislative
branch, such as granting amnesty to those who defor-
5.1) Popularize forest science: knowledge is power est as per the new Brazilian Forest Code. Unfortunate-
ly, discussions surrounding the new Forest Code did
Forest: he who knows it, protects it. It is vital that the scientif- not include repercussions of land use on the climate.
ic facts regarding the role of the forest in creating a
5) Forests of friendly climate and the effect of deforestation in lead- An exceptional situation requires exceptional mea-
ing to an inhospitable climate should reach all levels of sures. It is always the right time to revise laws and adapt
opportunities: five society and become common knowledge. Every effort them to the demands of reality and of society. Giving
should be made to simplify the message without dis- fines to deforesters who later on will simply be amnes-
steps towards torting its very essence. One should, above all, reach tied through bureaucratic inefficiency or by Congress

climate recovery out and appeal to people’s sensibilities. is a recipe for failure.

5.2) Zero deforestation: start yesterday Other vulnerabilities of the deforestation control pro-
gram include the stimulating effects of economic cy-
In the short term, zero defor-Complacency and pro- cles102, growing market demands for timber and agricul-
estation is essential if we wish to
crastination concerning tural products, a greed for land and vectors represented
limit further damage to climate.
all this destruction must by roads, dams and other development programs, with
be utterly eradicated. An adequate level of stringency planning weaknesses that foster the invasion and oc-
can be compared with the treatment given to tobacco. cupation of forested areas103. For deforestation to be
Once the harm smoking does to people and economic stopped effectively, which is essential if we wish to limit
burdens it inflicts on society were ascertained, a series further damage to climate, all these loopholes must be
of measures were adopted to discourage it. sealed with the mobilization of and articulation by so-
ciety and the government, using strategy, intelligence,
With regard to deforestation in Brazil, several steps a long-term vision and a sense of urgency.

102   Land-clearance can be stimulated by changes in national economic policies. Deforestation peaks in 1995 (29,059 km2) and 2004 (27,130 km2) for example, occurred at the height of an economic boom.
103   (Laurance et al., 2001)The Future of the Brazilian Amazon.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 32

5.3) Put an end to fires, smoke and 5.4) Recover deforestation liability: the
soot: call the fire department! phoenix rises from the ashes
The fewer sources there are of All forms of ignition orig- Although the reforestation effort Although stopping defor-
smoke and soot, the less damage inating from human ac- is challenging, it is the best (and estation is mandatory, ines-
will be done to clouds and rain perhaps only) way to divert a
tivities in the forest must capable and long overdue,
and, in turn, the less damage greater risk to the climate.
to the green-ocean rainforest.
be halted once and for all. it alone is not sufficient to
Fires in forest areas, pas- reverse threatening climate trends. We must confront
tures and on agricultural land are a serious problem, re- the liability of cumulative deforestation, beginning
gardless of their proximity to the Amazon104. The fewer with paying the principal on the enormous environ-
sources there are of smoke and soot, the less damage mental debt that we owe the forest.
will be done to the formation of clouds and rain and, in
turn, this will result in less damage to the green-ocean How can a devastated landscape be rebuilt? If it were
rainforest. Given the deeply ingrained habit of using an urban landscape, the answer would be to rework
fire as an agricultural tool in the countryside, this will structures and buildings, in laborious brick by brick
be no easy task but it is an essential one. reconstructions that would require years of effort. By
contrast, Nature’s inert structures, such as soils, rocks
Let us go back to the comparison with tobacco. For and mountains, took thousands, millions or even bil-
decades, the industry covered up the facts on the lions of years to form and are the fruit of the actions of
health risks posed by smoking. Elaborate strategies slow geophysical forces.
and many resources in cognitive scrambling were
used in attempts to discredit science and confuse so- From a climate per- What about the living land-
ciety. However, the truth ultimately prevailed. Some- spective, we must re- scape? If earlier life has not been
thing that had seemed impossible became an irre- generate all that has made extinct, i.e., if there are
been destroyed.
versible global trend. The same path could be taken propagules, spores, seeds, eggs,
by putting a total ban on setting fires. Many alterna- parents and their offspring, a mysterious and automat-
tives to burning already exist and can be used by pro- ic reconstruction force goes into action. The biologi-
ducers to their advantage. cal “bricks” are the atoms, which bond into molecules
and compose the substances that build cells, articulate
themselves into the tissues, agglomerate into organs,
104  (Koren et al., 2004) Measurement of the Effect of Amazon Smoke on Inhibition of Cloud Formation.
105  (Nobre, 2006) Fênix Amazônico, Renascendo das Cinzas da Destruição (Amazonian Phoenix, rising from the ashes of destruction). Proposal to build an ecosystem of sustainable enterprises in the Amazon.
form organisms, populate ecosystems, interact in bi-
omes and whose sum total is the biosphere.
For a practical idea of what is implied in this interlinked
and automatic living order, imagine what it would be
like if we had modern assets (human technology) at
the tip of our fingers in the same way that nature does.
We could order a car (species) that would come in a
ready-to-develop module (seed). When placed in a pot
in the sunlight and watered for a few weeks, the vehicle
would grow!
Does that sound difficult? Well, it turns out that such
technology already exists, and has been operating at
full steam in Earth’s ecosystems all along. A magnifi-
cent tree - with a physical and biochemical ability sim-
ply to exist and survive that borders on fiction - started
off from a simple, tiny seed, drawing all it needed to
form itself from the air and the soil.
Thus, the forest itself offers us outstanding solutions for
ways to reconstruct native forest landscapes because it
possesses ingenious mechanisms to rebuild (or heal)
itself from mere seeds via the natural process of tree
regeneration in natural gaps.. There is a wealth of pio-
neer plant species that have the ability to grow under
extreme environmental conditions. These plants estab-
lish a dense secondary forest, creating conditions for
the complex, lasting tropical forest to recompose itself
gradually by medium- and long-term restoration105.
The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 33
However, when a deforested area is very large, natural intensify livestock production, greatly reducing the de-
regeneration processes fail because pioneer seeds do mand for pasture area. Projects such as Y Ikatu Xingu109
not reach the bare soil. In such cases, it becomes nec- and Cultivando Água Boa [Cultivating Good Water]110
essary to plant native species. If rain still falls, the forest have shown how an association of stakeholders from
regenerates in replanted areas. A collection of planted different sectors is perfectly workable in the recovery
trees is better than bare ground, but it is still a long way of riparian forests and other valuable sustainability ac-
from rebuilding the functional part of the destroyed tions.
ecosystem in all its complexity106.
The predicted climate chaos has the potential to be im-
We must regenerate, as
The landscape must be used in measurably more damaging than World War II. What is
an intelligent manner by zoning
widely as possible, all that unthinkable today may become an unavoidable reality
the land according to its capa-
has been changed and de- sooner than expected. China, with all its serious envi-
bilities, vulnerabilities and risks.
stroyed. It was only the in- ronmental problems, has already understood this and
tegrity of the original green-ocean forest that secured become the country with the most on-going reforesta-
the benign health of South America’s water cycle, sus- tion activities. Restoring native forests is the best bet
taining it throughout geological eras. we can make against climate chaos and is the only true
insurance policy we can buy.
Reforestation on such a scale implies a reversal of land
use in vast areas that are now occupied, something that 5.5) Governments and society need
is highly unlikely under the current scenario. Neverthe- to wake up: reality shock
less, there are alternative paths with a good chance of
immediate acceptance. It is a matter of making intel- In fifteen days, at a cost of trillions In 2008, when the Wall
ligent use of the landscape, including the application of dollars, governments of several Street financial bub-
of land zoning technologies based on terrain potential, nations decided to save the banks ble burst, governments
in the financial crisis of 2008.
vulnerabilities and risks107. around the world took
just fifteen days to decide to use trillions of dollars
Agriculture and other economic activities in rural areas of public funds to save private banks and avoid what
can be optimized by increasing production capacity threatened to become a collapse of the financial sys-
and freeing up space for reforestation with native spe- tem. The climate crisis has the potential to be immea-
cies. Many studies by Embrapa108 have shown how to surably worse than any financial crisis, nonetheless the
106  Partners: People and reforestation in the Tropics: a network of education, research and synthesis: http://partners-rcn.uconn.edu/page.php?4, WeForest: http://www.weforest.org/, both in English. .
107  This could be achieved by applying the terrain model HAND, which was developed in the Terrain Modeling group of the Earth System Science Center at INPE: http://modelohand.blogspot.com.br/, in Portuguese.
108  Brazilian Corporation of Agricultural Research, https://www.embrapa.br/en/meio-ambiente, in English.
109  Y Ikatu Xingu, save the good water of Xingu, http://www.yikatuxingu.org.br/, in Portuguese.
110  Cultivating Good Water, a program from Itaipu Binational (hydroelectric company) http://www.cultivandoaguaboa.com.br/, in Portuguese.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 34

Despite being urgent, zero ruling elite has been procrasti- to address climate degradation. To move forward with
deforestation seems to re- nating for over fifteen years on any effectiveness at all, further creative, forceful initia-
main a goal to be achieved making effective decisions to tives are urgently needed.
in the distant future.
save humanity from climate di-
saster. Despite the abundance of scientific evidence111 Amply documented by sci-
The ruling elite can still change
and of viable, creative and appealing solutions112, this the course of events. They ence, global climate change
procrastination seems to be worsening. must have the willingness and threatening region-
and humility to recognize the
al- and local-scale impacts
imminent risk of collapse in
In the Amazon, delays in decision-taking are directly the environmental system. from deforestation keep a
related to lengthy deadlines for goals and actions that foot in the door of political
should be considered urgent but get bogged-down in lethargy, putting increasing pressure on decision mak-
impenetrable, impeditive bureaucracy. Delays are also ers. If qualified scientific knowledge, the precautionary
related to sluggishness in providing funding for alter- principle and even plain common sense have failed
native, beneficial projects, and especially with regard to spark an adequate reaction from those who have
to the slow appropriation of scientific facts about the the financial means and strategic resources to change
importance of forests for climate. Ignoring innovative, things, then the shock of dry taps here, flooded cities
affordable and feasible solutions for increasing the eco- there and other natural disasters must surely provoke
nomic value of forests113 is simply postponing the prob- some sort of reaction.
lem. Zero deforestation, which was already a matter of
urgency a decade ago, is still presented as a goal to be
met some time in the distant future. All this is in stark
contrast to the fifteen days needed to save the banks.

We saw the first coherent and consequential efforts to

effectively reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Ama-
zon gain momentum starting in 2004. The results are
plain to see, showing that it is indeed possible to go
even further. However, despite auspicious initiatives
and important promises in carbon projects, we are still
light years away from the “war effort” that is needed

111  (Edenhofer et al., 2014) IPCC WGIII AR5 SPM : Summary for Policymakers; (Agrawala et al., 2014) IPCC WGIII AR5 TS Technical Summary.
112  For example: (Stern, 2007) Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change; (Sukhdev, et al., 2009) TEEB - The Economics of Ecosystems & Biodiversity: Climate Issues Update: http://www.teebweb.org/, in English.
113  For example: (Meir et al., 2011) Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation in Amazonia; (Trivedi et al., 2009) REDD and PINC: A new policy framework to fund tropical forests as global ‘eco-utilities’.

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 35

Conclusions
In the great Amazon rainforest, Earth safeguards one
of its most spectacular treasures: a profusion of life-
forms that inhale carbon dioxide and exhale oxygen,
transpire water, emit magical odors, remove toxic gas-
es, pulsate and regulate, moisten and make it rain, pro-
pel winds and feed aerial rivers, appeasing the fury of
the elements, creating an amenable climate both near-
by and afar. Societies sheltered beneath its life-giving
breath find in it an umbilical cord that sustains their
economies and provides them with well-being. All this
makes it necessary, desirable, viable and even profit-
able to change the modus operandi of human occupa-
tion in the Amazon.
The war effort against ignorance and for an awareness
of the vital importance of forests is the best strategy
of bringing people together – starting with our lead-
ers – around the common goal of making up for lost
time and creating real opportunities for us to avoid the
worst of all climate disasters. However, if we still fail to
act despite the mountain of scientific evidence, or if we
are just too slow to make a move, then it is highly likely
that we will have to deal with losses incomprehensible
to those who have always taken for granted the shade
and fresh water we enjoy thanks to the generosity of
the great rainforest.

There are many alternatives for Although the proposed re-

reviving the respectful coexis- lief operations are all nec-
tence with the rainforest, char-
essary if we are to achieve
acteristic of ancient civilizations.
the functional rehabilitation
of climate regulation by the forest, the novelty lies in
facing off deforestation liabilities through reforestation
and ecological restoration. Many excellent alternatives
exist for reviving the respectful (and technological)
coexistence114 that ancient civilizations once enjoyed
with the forest115.

114  (Balée, 2003) Native Views of the Environment in Amazonia.

115  (Heckenberger et al., 2003) Amazonia 1492: pristine forest or cultural parkland?

The Future Climate of Amazonia • Scientific Assessment Report 36

Epilogue: the prologue of a new era
The mythical Amazon rainforest is immensely greater Abundant scientific knowledge and other accessible copy the genius of Nature in their own creations, she
than whatever humanity manages to see in it. It is more forms of perception and understanding already en- sets out three basic principles for this rapprochement:
than just a geographical museum of endangered spe- able us to solve problems using a new approach – one
cies held in conservation areas and it is certainly much that is enlightened, integrative, proactive and con- · Nature as a model: to study and be inspired by Na-
much more than a simple carbon deposit referred to structive. An approach, moreover, that differs from the ture’s systems, designs and processes in order to solve
somewhat disparagingly as a “dead mass” in climate reductionist, irresponsible pragmatism that brought human problems.
treaties. us here in the first place116.
· Nature as a measure: to use standard or ecological cri-
The forest is a spectacular technological park of nature, Comprehensive, serious analyses afford numerous op- teria to judge the correctness of our innovations. After
a living complex, a powerful, versatile factory of envi- portunities for harmonizing the presence and interests evolving for 3.8 billion years, Nature has learned what
ronmental services. Any call made for the valuation of of contemporary society with an Amazonia that is alive works, what is appropriate and what lasts.
the forest must embrace this intrinsic value. We need and vigorous and can be rebuilt to its full capability.
to invoke our capacity to be awed at the gigantism of To get there, we need enthusiasm, modesty, dedica- · Nature as a mentor: a new way of looking at and ap-
tropical biology on all scales, from the manipulation of tion and a commitment to life. With the technological preciating Nature, from which a new era might arise
tiny atoms and molecules to the interference of oceans resources available, we can “occupy” in an intelligent based not on what we can “extract” from the natural
and the global atmosphere. way, optimizing new forms of land use that leave room world, but on what we can learn from it.
for the ecological rehabilitation of the forest. We can
What we see of human interference with the Amazon also disclose many other well-kept secrets of resilient In addition to these three points, several other princi-
rainforest reveals a substantial lack of awareness, both tropical biology and thus go beyond a mere under- ples that guide the workings of Nature could poten-
from those involved in its destruction and from those standing of its mechanisms. tially solve most of the current problems. A short list of
who vaguely seek its protection. Each new initiative these principles outlined by Janine Benyus notes that
intended to defend the forest has walked the same A pioneer in perceiving these opportunities, Janine Nature is propelled by sunlight; it uses only the ener-
paths and pressed the same keys. By following this Benyus, in her book Biomimicry, innovation inspired by gy it needs; it fits form to function; it recycles every-
pattern, we insist on what Einstein defined as insanity Nature117, started a revolution with the notion of a con- thing; it rewards cooperation; it banks on diversity; it
itself: “Doing the same thing over and over again and nection between nature and technology. Introducing demands local expertise; it curbs excesses from within
expecting different results.” the proposition that human beings should consciously and it taps the power of limits.

116  As seen by Einstein: “We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used to create them.” Pragmatism, the generator of problems, should not be the solution to solving the same problems.
117  (Benyus, 1997) Biomimicry: Innovation Inspired by Nature.

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