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Submitted in partial fulfilment of the

Recommender System is a system that seeks to predict or filter preferences

according to the user’s choices.

For the award of the degree of


Information Technology

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Under the guidance of





Time Series Forecasting:

A time series is a set of statistical observations arranged is chronological
order. Time series may be defined as collection of magnitudes of some
variables belonging to different time periods. It is commonly used for
The aim of the present study is to identify a model best fitting the Air
passenger data and to forecast the demand(Air Passenger) in Airplanes. The
method of maximum likelihood was used to estimate the parameters and to
forecast the number of Air Passengers in the future.
The Air Passenger data, which have been documented annually by the
Department of Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), reveal that the
ARIMA model may fit most adequately and forecast approximately the total
number of air passenger after 10 years, which explains increase, compared to
the number of air passenger in present, under the assumption that current
political, social, and economical conditions will be persistent in the future .

In Traditional time series analysis, it is ordinarily assumed that there is a

multiplicative relationship between the components of time series.

1. It helps in understanding past behavior- by observing data over a period of

time one can easily understand what changes have been taken place in the
past. Also this analysis will be extremely helpful in predicting the future

2. It facilitates comparison - Different time series are compared and important

decisions are concluded.

3. The various components of time series are useful to study the effective
change under each component.

4. The reasons for variation can be studied by comparing actual with

expected results.

5.It helps taking business decisions in aviation industry by analysing the

behavior of prediction under present circumstances.

6.Graphs and plots (using visualsation techniques) help to get better

perspective of data.

7. It helps in planning future operations- plans for the future can not be made
without forecasting events and relationship they will have. Statistical
techniques like time series helps to make decision for future.

Scope :
The first step in the analysis is to plot the data and obtain simple descriptive
measures (such as plotting data, looking for trends, seasonal fluctuations and
so on) of the main properties of the series

Observations were taken on two or more variables, making possible to use
the variation in one time series to explain the variation in another series. This
may lead to a deeper understanding. Multiple regression model may be
helpful in this case.
Given an observed time series, one may want to predict the future values of
the series. It is an important task in sales of forecasting and is the analysis of
economic and industrial time series. Prediction and forecasting used
When time series generated to measure the quality of a manufacturing
process (the aim may be) to control the process. Control procedures are of
several different kinds. In quality control, the observations are plotted on a
control chart and the controller takes action as a result of studying the charts.
A stochastic model is fitted to the series. Future values of the series are
predicted and then the input process variables are adjusted so as to keep the
process on target.



Personal computer:

 RAM: 2GB

 Processing: 2 core at 2,6 GHz

 Graphic Card: 512 MB

 Hard disk:512 GB

 Programming language: Python
 IDE (Integrated Development Environment): jupyter
 Operating System: window 10
 Web browser: Google Chrome
 Window picture manager


 HPE Unified Functional Testing (HP – UFT formerly QTP)

 Unit testing

 The conclusion drawn from the analysis of time series is not always
 The various factor that affected the fluctuations of a series cannot be
fully adjusted by the time series analysis.
 The various factor that influences the time series may not remain the
same for an extended period of time and so forecasting made on this basis
may become unreliable.
 Sometimes the increasing trend in the time series data may be due to
the increase in population. So, unless a necessary modification is made to the
data it would be difficult to understand the trend.

In conclusion, time series analysis is very important because to each and
every organization to succeed then it has to understand itself regarding
performance, achievements, behaviorally, etc.
Each and every organization should ensure use of this method when
necessary of forecasting if it is to succeed. A successful business is the one
which is in the position to forecast its prospects. In this case, it will be in a
position to evade any possible loss that might occur. Time series is done by
ensuring that proper planning and putting in place better policies.
Forecasting using time series
During forecasting, time series data is usually very important. Many
organizations rely on data produced by accountants to forecast prospects of
the firm. Company treasures this policy of forecasting since they can be in
the position to remedy any future action that can be detrimental to company
operations. In this way time series data is very important in forecasting of
something that keeps on changing over the long period for example prices of
stock, sales figures, and profit. Always, anything that is observed from time
to time sequentially is called time series.

 Kaggle.com
 Kantz, Holger; Thomas, Schreiber (2004). Nonlinear Time Series

 Introduction to Time series Analysis (Engineering Statistics

Handbook) — A practical guide to Time series analysis.

 Aladag C. H., Basaran. M. A., Egrioglu. E., Yolcu. U and Uslu. V R.
(2009). Forecasting in high order fuzzy times series by using neural
networks to define fuzzy relations, Expert Systems with Applications,
36, 4228 – 4231.

 Amir. A and Lipika. D (2007). A k-mean clustering algorithm for mixed

numeric and categorical data, Data & Knowledge Engineering, 63, 503
– 527.

 Cheng. C. H., Chen. T. L., Teoh. H.J and Chiang. C. H (2008). time-
series based on adaptive expectation model for TAIEX forecasting,
Expert Systems with Applications, 34, 1126 – 1132.