FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Manitoba Election
Voter Intention Numbers
Leaders’ Favourability Ratings
6th September 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between September 3rd and
4th, 2019 among a sample of 797 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Manitoba. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from random
digit dialing.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was not sponsored by a third party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/- 3.44%
and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
MANITOBA PC GOVERNMENT MOST LIKELY OUTCOME

6 September 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Progressive Conservatives led by

Brian Pallister look to be headed to victory on September 10th.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest Manitoba poll. The
poll surveyed 797 Manitobans between September 3rd and 4th. The poll
has a margin of error of +/- 3.44% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“Things have been remarkably stable in voter intentions since we last polled
three weeks ago,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet
Research. “While we took this snapshot one week before election day, it is
tough to imagine public opinion shifting this quickly in favour of the NDP for
them to win, although stranger things have happened in Canadian politics
before.”

“That said, we are expecting Manitobans to elect a Progressive Conservative

government this coming Tuesday.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the PCs have 43.3% (+0.8% from
August), while the NDP led by Wab Kinew come in with 34.2% support
(-0.5%). The Liberals with Dougald Lamont at the helm currently enjoy 15.1%
(+3.2%), and the Greens with James Beddome as leader have 6.2% (-3.4%).

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
oters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would
you vote for?

11.9%

0.9%
5%

39.1%

13.5%
All Voters

ded and Leaning Voters

29.5%
ll Voters
1.2%
6.2%
Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

17.4%
15.1%

0.9% 36.5%
43.3%
7.6%
Decided and Leaning Voters
All Voters

9.6%

34.2%

27.8%

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party Undecided

Progressive Conservatives NDP Liberals Greens Another Party
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the
following party leaders?
r Wab Kinew

3.9% 6.7%

14.4%

30%
32.3%
22.8%

Brian Pallister Wab Kinew

ont Dougald Lamont James Beddome

51.7%
38.2%

Favourable Unfavourable Not sure Not familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not sure Not familiar
15.5%
19.3% 22.7%
20.9%
27.3% 28%

Dougald Lamont James Beddome

Dougald Lamont

33.5%
21%
25.9%
33.9%
23.8%
28.3%

Favourable Unfavourable Not sure Not familiar Favourable Unfavourable Not sure Not familiar
Favourable Unfavourable Not sure Not familiar
Breakout Tables
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18- 35- 50- Elsewhere in
Total Male Female 65+ Winnipeg
34 49 64 MB
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian
39.1% 45.6% 33% 36.5% 35.7% 43.3% 41.5% 29.6% 51.7%
Pallister
NDP led by Wab Kinew 29.5% 25.2% 33.6% 32.9% 34.6% 25.8% 23.2% 33.8% 23.7%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 13.5% 12.3% 14.7% 14.1% 10.6% 12.4% 17.5% 17.3% 8.4%
Greens led by James Bedomme 5% 4.9% 5.1% 6.4% 3.7% 4.9% 4.7% 7% 2.4%
Another Party 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% - 2.4% 1.4% - 1.3% 0.5%
Undecided 11.9% 10.8% 13% 10% 13% 12.2% 13.1% 11% 13.2%
Unweighted Frequency 797 396 401 112 165 233 287 421 376
Weighted Frequency 797 388 409 235 194 206 162 453 344

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

18- 35- 50- Elsewhere in
Total Male Female 65+ Winnipeg
34 49 64 MB
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian
40.3% 46.7% 34.2% 37.5% 35.7% 45.8% 42.8% 30.2% 53.6%
Pallister
NDP led by Wab Kinew 31.8% 27% 36.4% 33.8% 39.6% 27.9% 24.6% 36.3% 25.9%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 14.1% 13.5% 14.7% 14.1% 11.2% 13.2% 18.6% 17.9% 9%
Greens led by James Bedomme 5.8% 5.9% 5.7% 7.3% 5% 5.2% 5.3% 7.6% 3.4%
Another Party 1.1% 1.7% 0.6% - 3% 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 1%
Undecided 6.9% 5.2% 8.5% 7.3% 5.6% 6.5% 8.3% 6.6% 7.2%
Unweighted Frequency 797 396 401 112 165 233 287 421 376
Weighted Frequency 797 388 409 235 194 206 162 453 344

(decided and leaning voters)

18- 35- 50- Elsewhere in
Total Male Female 65+ Winnipeg
34 49 64 MB
Progressive Conservatives led by Brian
43.3% 49.2% 37.7% 40.4% 38.2% 48.7% 46.8% 32.5% 57.5%
Pallister
NDP led by Wab Kinew 34.2% 28.5% 39.7% 36.8% 41.8% 30% 26.9% 38.8% 28.3%
Liberals led by Dougald Lamont 15.1% 14.3% 15.9% 15% 11.9% 14.3% 20.2% 19.2% 9.7%
Greens led by James Bedomme 6.2% 6.2% 6.1% 7.8% 5.1% 5.6% 5.8% 8.1% 3.5%
Another Party 1.2% 1.8% 0.6% - 3% 1.5% 0.4% 1.3% 1%
Unweighted Frequency 743 374 369 105 156 219 263 392 351
Weighted Frequency 743 362 381 219 181 192 151 423 320
 Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister?
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB
Favourable 30% 39.3% 21.1% 29.4% 22.6% 33.1% 35.6% 23.5% 38.5%
Unfavourable 51.7% 45.6% 57.6% 50.5% 60.4% 50.9% 44.3% 60.2% 40.6%
Not sure 14.4% 10.3% 18.2% 15.9% 13.5% 13.2% 14.7% 12.3% 17.1%
Not familiar with Brian Pallister 3.9% 4.8% 3.1% 4.2% 3.5% 2.8% 5.4% 4% 3.8%
Unweighted Frequency 797 396 401 112 165 233 287 421 376
Weighted Frequency 797 388 409 235 194 206 162 453 344

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB
Favourable 32.3% 29.7% 34.9% 34.1% 35.4% 29.7% 29.7% 38.3% 24.6%
Unfavourable 38.2% 43.5% 33.1% 33.7% 35% 42.5% 42.9% 35.4% 41.9%
Not sure 22.8% 18.6% 26.9% 27% 20.7% 22.2% 20.2% 21.7% 24.3%
Not familiar with Wab Kinew 6.7% 8.3% 5.1% 5.3% 8.9% 5.7% 7.2% 4.7% 9.3%
Unweighted Frequency 797 396 401 112 165 233 287 421 376
Weighted Frequency 797 388 409 235 194 206 162 453 344

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Dougald Lamont?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB
Favourable 27.3% 27.7% 26.8% 23.7% 23.4% 29.6% 34% 34% 18.3%
Unfavourable 23.8% 28.4% 19.4% 21.3% 24.1% 28.5% 20.8% 19.6% 29.3%
Not sure 33.5% 27.5% 39.1% 35.7% 34.5% 29.8% 33.7% 33.6% 33.2%
Not familiar with Dougald Lamont 15.5% 16.4% 14.6% 19.3% 18% 12.1% 11.4% 12.7% 19.2%
Unweighted Frequency 797 396 401 112 165 233 287 421 376
Weighted Frequency 797 388 409 235 194 206 162 453 344

Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Beddome?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Winnipeg Elsewhere in MB
Favourable 22.7% 23.4% 22.1% 25% 22.3% 19.6% 24.1% 28.8% 14.8%
Unfavourable 21% 25.8% 16.3% 21.1% 20.9% 22.9% 18.4% 16.5% 26.9%
Not sure 28.3% 23.6% 32.8% 27.5% 25.6% 32% 28% 28.9% 27.5%
Not familiar with James Beddome 28% 27.2% 28.8% 26.5% 31.2% 25.5% 29.6% 25.9% 30.9%
Unweighted Frequency 797 396 401 112 165 233 287 421 376
Weighted Frequency 797 388 409 235 194 206 162 453 344
Full Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, Favourable opinion
which party would you vote for? Unfavourable opinion
Progressive Conservative Party of Not sure
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister Not familiar with Wab Kinew
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led by
Wab Kinew Do you have a favourable or
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald unfavourable opinion of Dougald
Lamont Lamont?
Green Party of Manitoba led by James Favourable opinion
Bedomme Unfavourable opinion
Another Party Not sure
Undecided Not familiar with Dougald Lamont

And which party are you leaning Do you have a favourable or

towards? (only asked of respondents unfavourable opinion of James
who were undecided in previous Bedommel?
question) Favourable opinion
Progressive Conservative Party of Unfavourable opinion
Manitoba led by Brian Pallister Not sure
New Democratic Party of Manitoba led by Not familiar with James Bedomme
Wab Kinew
Manitoba Liberal Party led by Dougald What is your gender?
Lamont Male
Green Party of Manitoba led by James Female
Bedomme
Another Party What is your age group?
Undecided 18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
(the order of the following five 50 to 64 years of age
questions were randomized) 65 years of age or older
Do you have a favourable or
unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister?
Favourable opinion
Unfavourable opinion
Not sure
Not familiar with Brian Pallister

Do you have a favourable or

unfavourable opinion of Wab Kinew?
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between September 3rd
to 4th, 2019 among a sample of 797 adults 18 years of age or older, living in Manitoba. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population
of Manitoba.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from random digit dialing.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.44% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 4.92%, Females: +/-
4.89%, 18-34 age group: +/- 9.26%, 35-49 age group: +/- 7.63%, 50-64 age group: +/-
6.42%, 65+ age group: +/- 5.78%, Winnipeg: +/- 4.78%, Rest of Manitoba: +/- 5.05%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.