Vous êtes sur la page 1sur 101

(FRQRPLF(YDOXDWLRQRI$LU4XDOLW\

7DUJHWVIRU&2DQG%HQ]HQH

$UHSRUWSURGXFHGIRU(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,
(FRQRPLF(YDOXDWLRQRI$LU4XDOLW\
7DUJHWVIRU&2DQG%HQ]HQH

$UHSRUWSURGXFHGIRU(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,
([HFXWLYH6XPPDU\

7KLVUHSRUWSUHVHQWVZRUNXQGHUWDNHQIRUWKH'*;,VWXG\RQ¶(FRQRPLF(YDOXDWLRQRI$LU
4XDOLW\7DUJHWVIRU&DUERQ0RQR[LGH &2 DQG%HQ]HQH·7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKHVWXG\ZDV
WRLGHQWLI\DQGHVWLPDWHWKHFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRIPHHWLQJDPELHQWDLUTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGVIRU
&2DQGEHQ]HQH7KHDQDO\VLVVSHFLILFDOO\DFFRXQWVIRUDUHDVRISHDNFRQFHQWUDWLRQ ¶KRW
VSRWV· DVZHOODVDUHDVZKHUH¶XUEDQEDFNJURXQG·FRQGLWLRQVDSSO\

$QXPEHURIGLIILFXOWLHVZHUHHQFRXQWHUHGGXULQJWKHFRXUVHRIWKLVZRUNZKLFKVKRXOGEH
UHJDUGHGDVSULRULWLHVIRUIXUWKHUGDWDFROOHFWLRQDQGUHVHDUFKDFWLYLWLHV)LUVWWKHUHLV
LQFRQVLVWHQF\LQLQYHQWRULHVEHWZHHQGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHV6HFRQGWKHFRVWEHQHILW
DVVHVVPHQWZDVPDGHH[WUHPHO\GLIILFXOWE\WKHODFNRIJRRGH[SRVXUHUHVSRQVHGDWDIRU
ERWKRIWKHSROOXWDQWVFRQVLGHUHG$WKLUGGLIILFXOW\FRQFHUQHGWKHRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNIRU
WKLVDQDO\VLV)URPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVLWZRXOGEHSUHIHUDEOHLQIXWXUH
DQDO\VLVRIDLUTXDOLW\OLPLWVWRWDNHDEURDGHUDSSURDFKFRQVLGHULQJDPXFKODUJHUQXPEHU
RISROOXWDQWV HJ62 12 30OHDG&2EHQ]HQH2 VLPXOWDQHRXVO\7KLVZRXOG
  

DOORZEHWWHULQWHJUDWLRQRIWKHVHFRQGDU\HIIHFWVRIDEDWHPHQWRILQGLYLGXDOSROOXWDQWVIRU
H[DPSOHWKURXJKUHGXFWLRQVLQHPLVVLRQVRIWKHRWKHUSROOXWDQWVEHLQJFRQVLGHUHG2YHUDOO
WKLVVKRXOGOHDGWRDPRUHRSWLPDOVHOHFWLRQRIDEDWHPHQWWHFKQRORJLHV

$QDO\VLVFRQFHQWUDWHGRQWKUHHFLWLHV$WKHQV&RORJQHDQG/RQGRQ5HVXOWVIURPWKHVH
FLWLHVZHUHH[WUDSRODWHGWRWKHUHVWRIWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ7KH6WHHULQJ*URXSIRUWKLV
ZRUNUHTXHVWHGWKDWWKHIROORZLQJYDOXHVEHLQYHVWLJDWHGDVSRVVLEOHOLPLWVLQWKLVVWXG\
• )RUEHQ]HQHDQGXJP DVDQQXDODYHUDJHWREHDWWDLQHGE\


• )RU&2PJP PD[LPXPKRXUPHDQFRQFHQWUDWLRQDQGPJP VHFRQG


 

KLJKHVWKRXUPHDQFRQFHQWUDWLRQWREHDWWDLQHGE\

7KHVHOLPLWVZHUHWREHLQYHVWLJDWHGIRUERWKXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGKRWVSRWORFDWLRQV

7KHPHWKRGRORJ\IRUWKLVVWXG\IROORZVWRDODUJHH[WHQWH[WUDSRODWLRQRIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKH
ILUVW$XWR2LO3URJUDPPH $23, $23,SURYLGHGGHWDLOHGPRGHOOHGDVVHVVPHQWVRI
XUEDQEDFNJURXQGDLUTXDOLW\DFURVVFLWLHVWKHVHFLWLHVEHLQJEURDGO\UHSUHVHQWDWLYHZLWK
UHVSHFWWRDLUTXDOLW\RIDOOFLWLHVLQWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ,WDOVRSURYLGHGDVHWRIGDWDDQG
DVVXPSWLRQVWKDWKDYHDOUHDG\EHHQZLGHO\UHYLHZHGGLVFXVVHGDQGDJUHHGE\(XURSHDQ
GHFLVLRQPDNHUVDQGRWKHULQWHUHVWHGSDUWLHV

7KHEDVHOLQHVFHQDULRXVHGKHUHLQFRUSRUDWHGWKH$XWR2LO'LUHFWLYHVRQIXHOTXDOLW\DQG
YHKLFOHHPLVVLRQVDQGWKHILUVWGDXJKWHU'LUHFWLYHRQ62 3012 DQGOHDGXVLQJUHVXOWV
 

IURPDQHDUOLHUVWXG\FRQGXFWHGIRUWKH&RPPLVVLRQ7KHUHLVHPHUJLQJHYLGHQFHWKDWWKH
PHDVXUHVFRQVLGHUHGLQWKDWHDUOLHUVWXG\ZRXOGQRWEHVXIILFLHQWWRPHHWWKHOLPLWV
FRQWDLQHGLQWKHILUVWGDXJKWHU'LUHFWLYH*LYHQWKHFRPPRQDOLW\RIVRXUFHVIRUWKH
SROOXWDQWVFRQVLGHUHGDQGWKHSDUWLFXODUHIIHFWRIWUDQVSRUWLQDUHDVZKHUHH[FHHGHQFHVDUH
PRVWOLNHO\LWLVSRVVLEOHWKDWWKLVZLOOPHDQWKDWWKHSUHVHQWDQDO\VLVRYHUHVWLPDWHVIXWXUH
EHQ]HQHDQG&2OHYHOV

$($7HFKQRORJ\
LLL
$JJUHJDWHGUHVXOWVIRU&2DUHVKRZQLQ7DEOHDQGIRUEHQ]HQHLQ7DEOH$QXPEHURI
XQFHUWDLQWLHVKDYHEHHQH[SORUHGLQWKHVHWDEOHV)RU&2WKHIROORZLQJDUHFRQVLGHUHG
• /RZ / PHGLXP 0 DQGKLJK + HPLVVLRQVFHQDULRVDFFRXQWLQJIRUSRVVLEOH
YDULDWLRQLQWUDIILFJURZWKDQGWKHSHQHWUDWLRQRIDGYDQFHGWHFKQRORJLHV
• 5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGKRWVSRWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVIRUZKLFKWKH
¶FRUH·SUHGLFWLRQUHSUHVHQWVWKHEHVWHVWLPDWHDQGWKH¶XSSHU·HVWLPDWHLVEDVHGRQ
H[WUHPHPHWHRURORJ\
• ,QFOXVLRQH[FOXVLRQRIWKHSRVVLEOHDFXWHHIIHFWVRI&2RQPRUWDOLW\ WKHFROXPQKHDGHG
¶EHQHILWV VHQVLWLYLW\ ·LQFOXGHVHIIHFWVRQPRUWDOLW\DQGWKHSUHYDOHQFHRI&RQJHVWLYH
KHDUWIDLOXUH &+) ZKLOVWWKHFROXPQKHDGHG¶EHQHILWV·LQFOXGHV&+)DORQH 

7DEOH$JJUHJDWHGUHVXOWVIRU&2LQFOXGLQJVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VHV 0LOOLRQ(XUR 
/LPLW /RFDWLRQ (PLVVLRQ &DVH %HQHILWV %HQHILWV &RVWV
6FHQDULR VHQVLWLYLW\
$OO XUEDQEDFN $OO  1RH[FHHGDQFH

PJP QGKLJKHVW

KRWVSRW / &RUH   
0 &RUH   
+ &RUH   
PJP QGKLJKHVW

KRWVSRW / 8SSHU   
0 8SSHU   
+ 8SSHU   

PJP KLJKHVW

KRWVSRW / &RUH   
0 &RUH   
+ &RUH   
PJP KLJKHVW

KRWVSRW / 8SSHU   
0 8SSHU   
+ 8SSHU   

:KLOVWIRUEHQ]HQHWKHIROORZLQJVHQVLWLYLWLHVZHUHH[SORUHG
• (PLVVLRQVFHQDULRV ORZPHGLXPKLJKDVGLVFXVVHGDERYHIRU&2
• 5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGKRWVSRWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
• 7KHULVNIDFWRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHQXPEHURIFDQFHUVOLNHO\WREHOLQNHGWRDJLYHQOHYHORI
EHQ]HQH
• :KHWKHUPHDVXUHVDUHVWURQJO\WDUJHWHG RSWLPLVHGDEDWHPHQWFDVH RUZHDNO\WDUJHWHG
JHQHUDOLVHGDEDWHPHQWFDVH DWWKHORFDWLRQVZKHUHH[FHHGHQFHVRFFXU

LY
$($7HFKQRORJ\
7DEOH$JJUHJDWHGUHVXOWVRIWKHDQDO\VLVIRUEHQ]HQHHVWLPDWLQJFRVWVDQGEHQHILWV
WKURXJKRXWWKH(8SHUDQQXP&HOOVZLWK¶·HQWHUHGUHSUHVHQWFDVHVZKHUHQRH[FHHGHQFH
LVSUHGLFWHG

/LPLW ,PSDFWV FDVHV %HQHILWV N(XUR &RVWV N(XUR


µJP /RFDWLRQ (PLVVLRQV /RZ +LJK /RZ +LJK
 XUEDQEDFN /²RSW     
0²RSW     
+²RSW     
 KRWVSRW /²JHQ     
0²JHQ     
+²JHQ     
 KRWVSRW /²RSW     
0²RSW     
+²RSW     
 XUEDQEDFN /²RSW     
0²RSW     
+²RSW     
 KRWVSRW /²RSW     
0²RSW     
+²RSW     
 XUEDQEDFN /²RSW     
0²RSW     
+²RSW     
 KRWVSRW /²RSW     
0²RSW     
+²RSW     

7KHUHLVDWHQGHQF\IRUFRVWVWRVLJQLILFDQWO\H[FHHGEHQHILWVZKHUHH[FHHGHQFHVDUHOLNHO\WR
RFFXU7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOSRLQWVWKDWVKRXOGEHQRWHGKHUHKRZHYHU

 ,QPDQ\FDVHVLWLVOLNHO\WKDWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVHVWLPDWHGKHUHDUHRYHUHVWLPDWHG)XUWKHU
DEDWHPHQWWRWKDWFRQVLGHUHGKHUHLQRXUEDVHOLQHVFHQDULRPD\ZHOOIROORZZLWKRXW
IXUWKHUDFWLRQWRFRQWURO&2DQGEHQ]HQH7KLVPD\DULVHWKURXJKPHDVXUHVQHHGHGWR
FRQWURORWKHUDLUSROOXWDQWVFRQJHVWLRQDQGRWKHULPSDFWVRIWUDQVSRUW$IXUWKHUIDFWRU
LVWKHSRWHQWLDOLQWURGXFWLRQRIQHZWHFKQRORJLHVZKLFKFRXOGPDNHDQLPSDFWRQ
EHQ]HQHOHYHOVE\7KLVZRXOGORZHUERWKWKHFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRIDFKLHYLQJWKH
OLPLWYDOXHV
 6HFRQGDU\HIIHFWVRIDEDWLQJ&2DQGEHQ]HQHIRUH[DPSOHRQR]RQHOHYHOVZHUHQRW
FRQVLGHUHG7KHORJLFIRULQFOXGLQJVXFKHIIHFWV VHH7DEOH ZLWKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKH
)UDPHZRUN'LUHFWLYHLVXQFOHDU

$($7HFKQRORJ\
Y
7DEOH6HFRQGDU\HIIHFWVRIWKHDEDWHPHQWRI&2DQGEHQ]HQH

$EDWHPHQW %XUGHQDIIHFWHG ,PSDFWVDIIHFWHG


PHDVXUH
7UDIILFFDOPLQJ (PLVVLRQRIDOOWUDQVSRUWSROOXWDQWV 62 

(IIHFWVRQKHDOWK
SXEOLFWUDQVSRUW 12 30 92&V&2 HWFJHQHUDWLRQRI
[  
PDWHULDOVHFRORJ\
VXEVLGLHVHWF UHODWHGVHFRQGDU\SROOXWDQWVVXFKDVR]RQH

5LVNRIDFFLGHQWV 'HDWKDQGLQMXU\
PDWHULDOGDPDJH

&RQJHVWLRQ 7UDYHOWLPH

1RLVH $PHQLW\

(PLVVLRQFRQVWUDLQWV (PLVVLRQRIDOOWUDQVSRUWSROOXWDQWV 62 

(IIHFWVRQKHDOWK
12 30 92&V&2 HWF
[  
PDWHULDOVHFRORJ\

 ,QPDQ\FDVHVWKHH[WHQWRIH[FHHGHQFHZDVWLJKWO\FRQVWUDLQHGJHRJUDSKLFDOO\DQGZLWK
UHVSHFWWRWKHDPRXQWRIH[FHHGHQFH7KLVPDNHVLWPRUHOLNHO\WKDWWKHLVVXHVUDLVHGDW
>@FRXOGOHDGWRFHUWDLQOLPLWVEHLQJPHWZLWKRXWFRQWUROVEHLQJGLUHFWHGVSHFLILFDOO\DW
&2RUEHQ]HQH7KHFOHDUH[FHSWLRQWRWKLVZDVWKHOLPLWRIµJP IRUEHQ]HQHDSSOLHG


LQKRWVSRWV

$QDO\VLVRI&2HIIHFWVEDVHGRQDYDLODEOHHSLGHPLRORJLFDOGDWDLVVXEMHFWWRPXFK
XQFHUWDLQW\JLYHQWKHOLPLWHGDPRXQWRIGDWDWKDWH[LVW7KUHHH[SRVXUHUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQV
KDYHEHHQUHSRUWHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHIRUDFXWH VKRUWWHUP HIIHFWVRQPRUWDOLW\LVFKDHPLF
KHDUWGLVHDVH GLVHDVHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDODFNRIEORRGVXSSO\WRWKHKHDUW DQGFRQJHVWLYH
KHDUWIDLOXUH &+) 2IWKHVHRQO\WKHODVWDSSHDUVUHDVRQDEO\UREXVWRQFHDFFRXQWKDV
EHHQWDNHQRIRWKHUSROOXWDQWV+RZHYHUWKHORJLFRILQFOXGLQJRQHW\SHRIKHDUWGLVHDVH
EXWQRWDQRWKHUIRUZKLFKWKHUHDSSHDUVUHDVRQDEOHJURXQGVIRUEHOLHYLQJWKDWWKHUHVKRXOG
EHDQDVVRFLDWLRQZLWK&2PD\EHTXHVWLRQDEOH(TXDOO\LQFOXGLQJKHDUWGLVHDVHEXWQRW
SUHPDWXUHPRUWDOLW\PD\DOVREHTXHVWLRQDEOH7KHHIIHFWRI&2H[SRVXUHIURPDPELHQW
DLUPD\MXVWEHWREULQJWKHGDWHRIKRVSLWDOLVDWLRQRUGHDWKIRUZDUGE\DOLPLWHGWLPHWKH
SULPDU\FDXVHRIKHDUWGLVHDVHRUWKHWLPLQJRIGHDWKPD\OLHHOVHZKHUH HJVPRNLQJGLHW
ODFNRIH[HUFLVHHWF 7KHHSLGHPLRORJ\XQIRUWXQDWHO\GRHVQRWSURYLGHDQVZHUVWRWKHVH
TXHVWLRQV$YDLODEOH¶UHVSRQVHSURILOHV·VKRZLQJWKHHIIHFWVOLQNHGWRGLIIHUHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIFDUER[\KDHPRJORELQ &2+E LQEORRGDUHUHDVRQDEO\ZHOODFFHSWHGEXW
DUHQRWDPHQDEOHWRDSSOLFDWLRQLQWKLVW\SHRIDQDO\VLV(VWLPDWHGLPSDFWVDQGDVVRFLDWHG
FRVWVJLYHQIRU&2LQWKLVUHSRUWVKRXOGWKXVEHUHJDUGHGDVYHU\XQFHUWDLQZLWKWKLV
XQFHUWDLQW\UHIOHFWLQJWKHOLPLWHGDWWHQWLRQWKDWKDVVRIDUEHHQJLYHQWR&2LQ
HSLGHPLRORJLFDOVWXGLHV

YL
$($7HFKQRORJ\
3UREOHPVDOVRH[LVWLQWKHTXDQWLILFDWLRQRIEHQ]HQHULVNVZLWKDIDFWRUGLIIHUHQFH
EHWZHHQWKHKLJKDQGORZHVWLPDWHVRIULVN)XUWKHUUHVHDUFKRQWKHPHFKDQLVPRIEHQ]HQH
HIIHFWVPD\UHGXFHWKLVXQFHUWDLQW\LQWKHQHDUIXWXUH

$($7HFKQRORJ\
YLL
&RQWHQWV

 ,1752'8&7,21 
1.1 EUROPEAN LEGISLATION ON AIR QUALITY .................................................................................................. 1
1.2 REMIT OF THIS STUDY ................................................................................................................................. 2
 2EMHFWLYHV  
 5HODWLRQVKLSWRRWKHUDFWLYLWLHV  
1.3 OVERVIEW OF THE ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................... 3
1.4 STRUCTURE OF THIS REPORT...................................................................................................................... 3
 6&(1$5,26$1'(0,66,216285&(6  
2.1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................... 6
2.2 SOURCES OF CO AND BENZENE .................................................................................................................. 8
2.3 SCENARIOS............................................................................................................................................... 10
2.4 CONSEQUENCES OF A NEED FOR MORE STRINGENT ACTION ON NO2 AND PM10 THAN FORESEEN BY IVM
(1997) 11
2.5 LIMIT VALUES ASSESSED IN THIS STUDY ................................................................................................... 13
 &2  
 %HQ]HQH 
 ())(&762)(0,66,2162)&2$1'%(1=(1($1'(;32685('$7$ 
3.1 CARBON MONOXIDE ................................................................................................................................. 15
 (IIHFWVRI&2 
 (SLGHPLRORJLFDOGDWD 
3.1.2.1 Acute Mortality and CO: Touloumi HWDO, 1994 ........................................................................................ 17
3.1.2.2 Schwartz and Morris, 1995: Associations between cardiovascular hospital admissions and PM10 and CO17
3.1.2.3 Other hospital admissions studies, especially Poloniecki HWDO, 1997........................................................ 18
 &RPPHQWRQFRQVLVWHQF\RIUHSRUWHG&2HIIHFWV  
3.2 BENZENE ................................................................................................................................................. 19
 (IIHFWVRI%HQ]HQH 
3.3 ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF ABATEMENT MEASURES FOR CO AND BENZENE .................................... 23
3.4 ESTIMATING EXPOSURE TO CO AND BENZENE ......................................................................................... 24
 5('8&7,212)&2$1'%(1=(1((0,66,216)52002%,/(6285&(6  
4.1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................................... 32
4.2 TECHNICAL MEASURES ............................................................................................................................ 34
 7DLOSLSHWUHDWPHQWWHFKQRORJLHV  
 (QJLQHFRQWUROV 
 ,PSURYHGGXUDELOLW\RIHPLVVLRQFRQWUROV\VWHPV 
 $OWHUQDWLYHDQGUHIRUPXODWHGIXHOV  
 (YDSRUDWLYHHPLVVLRQFRQWUROV 
4.3 NON-TECHNICAL MEASURES ................................................................................................................... 36
 0DQDJHPHQWRSWLRQV  
 3ROLF\RSWLRQV  
 (FRQRPLFDQGILVFDOPHDVXUHV 
 5HJXODWRU\PHDVXUHV  
4.4 COSTS OF ABATEMENT OPTIONS FOR MOBILE SOURCES .......................................................................... 40
 (PLVVLRQV 
 &RVWFXUYHV  
 $1$/<7,&$/352&(66  
5.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 53
5.2 DETERMINATION OF AREAS OF EXCESS POLLUTION .................................................................................. 54
 $VVHVVPHQWRIHPLVVLRQVDQGXUEDQEDFNJURXQGOHYHOV 

YLLL
$($7HFKQRORJ\
5.2.1.1 Sensitivity from size of vehicle fleet and penetration of advanced technologies ...................................... 55
5.2.1.2 Sensitivity to variation in fuel composition .............................................................................................. 56
5.2.1.3 Sensitivity to modelling effect of emissions on urban background pollutant levels.................................. 56
 &KDUDFWHULVDWLRQRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQKRWVSRWV  
 &RQYHUVLRQRI&2OHYHOV  
5.3 ASSESSMENT OF THE COSTS OF MEETING THE DIRECTIVE ......................................................................... 61
5.4 THE BENEFITS ANALYSIS .......................................................................................................................... 61
5.5 COMPARISON OF COSTS AND BENEFITS ..................................................................................................... 65
5.6 EXTRAPOLATION OF RESULTS TO THE PAN-EUROPEAN UNION LEVEL....................................................... 65
 6HQVLWLYLW\LQH[WUDSRODWLRQIURPWKHWKUHHFLWLHVWRWKH(8  
 5(68/76&2  
6.1 MAIN RESULTS ......................................................................................................................................... 69
6.2 MONITORING COSTS ................................................................................................................................. 74
6.3 AGGREGATION ......................................................................................................................................... 74
 5(68/76%(1=(1(  
7.1 MAIN RESULTS ......................................................................................................................................... 76
7.2 MONITORING COSTS ................................................................................................................................. 80
7.3 BENZENE LEVELS AROUND SERVICE STATIONS ......................................................................................... 81
7.4 AGGREGATION ......................................................................................................................................... 82
 &21&/86,216  

 5()(5(1&(6 

$SSHQGLFHV
$SSHQGL[,&RQYHUVLRQIDFWRUVIRU&2DQGEHQ]HQH
$SSHQGL[,,*ORVVDU\RIPHGLFDOWHUPV
$SSHQGL[,,,&DOFXODWLRQRIUDWLRVEHWZHHQXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGSHDNOHYHOV
$SSHQGL[,9([LVWLQJDQGSURSRVHG(&'LUHFWLYHVVLQFHWKH$XWR2LOVWXG\
$SSHQGL[9$EDWHPHQWRSWLRQVIRUEHQ]HQHIURPVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHV

$($7HFKQRORJ\
L[
 ,QWURGXFWLRQ

 (8523($1/(*,6/$7,2121$,548$/,7<
7KHREMHFWLYHVRIWKH)UDPHZRUN'LUHFWLYHRQ$LU4XDOLW\ &RXQFLO'LUHFWLYH(&RI
6HSWHPEHURQDPELHQWDLUTXDOLW\DVVHVVPHQWDQGPDQDJHPHQW DUHWR
• GHILQHDQGHVWDEOLVKREMHFWLYHVIRUDPELHQWDLUTXDOLW\GHVLJQHGWRDYRLGSUHYHQWRU
UHGXFHKDUPIXOHIIHFWVRQKXPDQKHDOWKDQGWKHHQYLURQPHQWDVDZKROH
• DVVHVVWKHDPELHQWDLUTXDOLW\LQ0HPEHU6WDWHVRQWKHEDVLVRIFRPPRQPHWKRGVDQG
FULWHULD
• REWDLQDGHTXDWHLQIRUPDWLRQRQDPELHQWDLUTXDOLW\DQGHQVXUHWKDWLWLVPDGHDYDLODEOHWR
WKHSXEOLFDVQHFHVVDU\
• PDLQWDLQDPELHQWDLUTXDOLW\ZKHUHLWLVJRRGDQGLPSURYHLWLQRWKHUFDVHV

8QGHUWKLV'LUHFWLYHVRIDUZRUNRQ62 12 ILQHSDUWLFOHVDQGOHDGKDVEHHQFRPSOHWHG


 [

7KLVVWXG\IRUPVSDUWRIDVHFRQGSKDVHDQGLQYHVWLJDWHVSRVVLEOHVWDQGDUGVIRUFDUERQ
PRQR[LGH &2 DQGEHQ]HQH:RUNRQOLPLWVIRUR]RQHLVQHDUFRPSOHWLRQ,WVKRXOGEH
QRWHGWKDWDQ\DFWLRQRQDQ\RQHRIWKHVHSROOXWDQWVLVOLNHO\WRDIIHFWWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQRI
WKHRWKHUSROOXWDQWV,QSDUWLFXODUDFWLRQWRUHGXFHOHYHOVRI30 DQG12 LVOLNHO\WR
 [

DIIHFWHPLVVLRQVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHDOVREHFDXVHWUDQVSRUWWHQGVWREHWKHGRPLQDQW
VRXUFHIRUDOOIRXUSROOXWDQWVLQDUHDVZKHUHH[FHHGHQFHVRFFXU

7KH)UDPHZRUN'LUHFWLYHGHILQHVWKHUDWLRQDOHIRU
• VHOHFWLQJSROOXWDQWVIRUFRQVLGHUDWLRQLQWKHVXEVHTXHQWGDXJKWHUGLUHFWLYHV
• VHWWLQJOLPLWYDOXHVWDUJHWYDOXHVDQGDOHUWWKUHVKROGV
• GHILQLQJWKHWLPHIUDPHIRUGHULYDWLRQRIYDOXHV
• TXDQWLI\LQJWKHQXPEHURIVDPSOLQJSRLQWVQHHGHGDQGFULWHULDUHODWHGWRWKHVLWLQJRI
PRQLWRUV
• VHOHFWLQJPHWKRGVIRUPHDVXULQJDQGHVWLPDWLQJSROOXWDQWOHYHOV

7KH'LUHFWLYHQRWHVDQXPEHURIIDFWRUVZKLFKPD\EHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWZKHQVHWWLQJ
OLPLWYDOXHVDQGDOHUWWKUHVKROGVWKRXJKWKHOLVWLVLQGLFDWLYHUDWKHUWKDQH[KDXVWLYH7KRVH
IDFWRUVOLVWHGRIPRVWUHOHYDQFHKHUHDUH
• GHJUHHRIH[SRVXUHRIVHFWRUVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQDQGLQSDUWLFXODUVHQVLWLYHVXEJURXSV
• FOLPDWLFFRQGLWLRQV
• HFRQRPLFDQGWHFKQLFDOIHDVLELOLW\RIDWWDLQLQJWDUJHWV
• ORQJUDQJHWUDQVPLVVLRQRISROOXWDQWVLQFOXGLQJVHFRQGDU\SROOXWDQWVVXFKDVR]RQH

1RGHILQLWLRQRUH[DPSOHLVSURYLGHGLQWKH'LUHFWLYHIRUZKDWFRQVWLWXWHVD¶VHQVLWLYHVXE
JURXS·+RZHYHUWZRJURXSVRISHRSOHFDQEHLGHQWLILHGDVSRWHQWLDOO\PRUHVHQVLWLYHWKDQ
WKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ7KHILUVWLVVHQVLWLYHRQPHGLFDOJURXQGV7KLVLQFOXGHV WKRXJKLV
QRWQHFHVVDULO\UHVWULFWHGWR SHRSOHZLWKSUHH[LVWLQJV\PSWRPVVXFKDVFLUFXODWRU\
SUREOHPVVPDOOFKLOGUHQZKRVHLPPXQHV\VWHPVPD\QRWEHIXOO\GHYHORSHGDQGSHRSOH
ZKRKDYHKHLJKWHQHGVHQVLWLYLW\EHFDXVHRIJHQHWLFIDFWRUV7KHVHFRQGJURXSRZHVLWV

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
KHLJKWHQHGVHQVLWLYLW\WRH[FHVVH[SRVXUHWRWKHSROOXWDQWVRILQWHUHVW7KLVLQFOXGHVSHRSOH
OLYLQJLQDUHDVZKHUHSROOXWDQWOHYHOVDUHORFDOO\KLJK HJDGMDFHQWWRSHWUROVWDWLRQVVRPH
LQGXVWULDOVLWHVDQGEXV\URDGV ,WDOVRLQFOXGHVSHRSOHH[SRVHGLQWKHZRUNSODFH HJ
UHILQHULHVSHWUROVWDWLRQVRWKHULQGXVWULDOVLWHVFDUSDUNVWXQQHOZRUNHUV DQGVPRNHUV
VPRNLQJEHLQJDPDMRUVRXUFHRIH[SRVXUHIRUERWK&2DQGEHQ]HQH 

7KHIDFWWKDWWKHUHLVDVLJQLILFDQWOHYHORIH[SRVXUHLQWKHZRUNSODFHDQGWKURXJKVPRNLQJ
FUHDWHVDQLPSRUWDQWLVVXHLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIOHJLVODWLRQ/HJLVODWLRQFRQWUROOLQJ
RXWGRRUDLUSROOXWLRQZLOOKDYHUHODWLYHO\OLWWOHHIIHFWRQWKHH[SRVXUHRIWKHVHVXEJURXSV
7KHUHIRUHLWLVORJLFDOWKDWWKHDQDO\VLVVKRXOGFRQVLGHUWKHLQFUHPHQWDOULVNDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
DPELHQWDLUH[SRVXUHVIDFHGE\PHPEHUVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQUDWKHUWKDQWKHDEVROXWHULVN
WKDWWKH\IDFHIURPH[SRVXUHVWRDOOVRXUFHV

3DUWLFXODULQWHUHVWKDVIRFXVHGRQEHQ]HQHDVLWLVWKHILUVWFDUFLQRJHQWREHFRQVLGHUHG
XQGHUWKH(8·V)UDPHZRUN'LUHFWLYH,QFRPSDULVRQ&2LQWKHDPELHQWDLUKDVDWWUDFWHG
UHODWLYHO\OLWWOHDWWHQWLRQWKRXJKLWKDVDZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGOLQNZLWKKHDOWKDQGKDVUHFHQWO\
EHHQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWVRQKHDOWKLQVRPHHSLGHPLRORJLFDOVWXGLHV7KH
RXWFRPHRIWKHVHVWXGLHVLVPL[HGKRZHYHUVRPHILQGDVLJQLILFDQWOLQNEHWZHHQ&2DQG
KHDOWKVRPHGRQ·WDQGVRPHRWKHUVLQLWLDOO\LGHQWLI\DVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQRQO\IRULWWR
GLVDSSHDURQFHRWKHUSROOXWDQWVVXFKDV30 DUHEURXJKWLQWRWKHDQDO\VLV)DWDO&2


SRLVRQLQJVDVRIWHQUHSRUWHGLQWKHSUHVVDUHQRWUHOHYDQWWRWKLVVWXG\DVWKH\GRQRWUHIOHFW
H[SRVXUHWRWKHDPELHQWDLU7KH\DUHW\SLFDOO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKH[SRVXUHWRIXPHVIURP
GHIHFWLYHRUSRRUO\YHQWHGGRPHVWLFJDVDSSOLDQFHVLQWKHFDVHRIDFFLGHQWDOGHDWKVRUWRFDU
H[KDXVWIXPHVLQWKHFDVHRIVXLFLGHV

 5(0,72)7+,6678'<
 2EMHFWLYHV

7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKHVWXG\LVWRLGHQWLI\DQGHVWLPDWHWKHFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRIPHHWLQJ
DPELHQWDLUTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGVIRU&2DQGEHQ]HQH7KHVSHFLILFWDVNVLQWKHSURMHFWDUHWR
 'HWHUPLQHDUHDVRIH[FHVVSROOXWLRQDFFRUGLQJWRSUHVSHFLILHGOLPLWYDOXHVWDNLQJLQWR
DFFRXQWWKH IXWXUH LPSDFWRIFXUUHQWDQGSODQQHG &RPPLVVLRQDJUHHG OHJLVODWLRQ
 ,GHQWLI\UHJLRQVDQGVHFWRUVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUH[FHVVDLUSROOXWLRQ
 3URYLGHDQRYHUYLHZRISRVVLEOHPHDVXUHVDQGDVVRFLDWHGFRVWVLQWKHUHOHYDQWUHJLRQVWR
PHHWWKHOLPLWYDOXHV
 'HWHUPLQHDOHDVWFRVWSDFNDJHRIPHDVXUHVWRPHHWWKHDPELHQWWDUJHWV
 $VVHVVWKHEHQHILWVRILPSOHPHQWLQJVXFKPHDVXUHV
 &RPSDUHFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVDQGFRQGXFWVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLV

 5HODWLRQVKLSWRRWKHUDFWLYLWLHV

7KLVVWXG\ZDVFDUULHGRXWWRLQIRUPWKH(&'*;,:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ%HQ]HQHDQGWKH
(&'*;,,QYLWHG([SHUWV*URXSRQ&2UHJDUGLQJHFRQRPLFLVVXHVOLQNHGWRWKH
GHYHORSPHQWRIDLUTXDOLW\OLPLWYDOXHVIRUWKHWZRSROOXWDQWV


$($7HFKQRORJ\
7KHZRUNLVDOVRVWURQJO\OLQNHGWRWKH$XWR2LO3URJUDPPHDVYHKLFOHVDUHWKHPDLQ
VRXUFHVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHLQWKHRXWGRRUDLU,QWKHILUVWSKDVHRIWKLVSURJUDPPHZKLFK
ZDVNQRZQDV$XWR2LO, KHUHDIWHUUHIHUUHGWRDV$23, ERWKEHQ]HQHDQG&2ZHUH
VSHFLILFDOO\FRQVLGHUHG7KUHHPDLQUHSRUWVZHUHSURGXFHGXQGHU$23,
• $LUTXDOLW\PRGHOOLQJ (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;, 
• (PLVVLRQVIXHOVDQGHQJLQHWHFKQRORJLHV $&($HXURSLDXQGDWHG 
• &RVW(IIHFWLYHQHVV 7RXFKH5RVV 

,QGXHFRXUVHLWVKRXOGEHZRUWKZKLOHFRPSDULQJWKHILQGLQJVRIWKLVVWXG\ZLWKWKRVHWKDW
ZLOOEHJHQHUDWHGE\WKHVHFRQGSKDVHRIWKH$XWR2LO3URJUDPPH $23,, 1RUHVXOWV
ZHUHDYDLODEOHIURP$23,,GXULQJWKLVVWXG\

 29(59,(:2)7+($1$/<6,6
,QHVVHQFHWKHVWXG\KDVIRXUPDLQDFWLYLWLHV
 'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIDUHDVRI¶H[FHVV·SROOXWLRQ
 &RVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVDQDO\VLVLHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUUHGXFLQJFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
RI&2DQGEHQ]HQHDQGWKHFRVWVRIGRLQJVR
 7KH EHQHILW DQDO\VLV GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH PRQHWDU\ YDOXH RI HQYLURQPHQWDO LPSURYHPHQWV
DFKLHYHGE\DOWHUQDWLYHVWUDWHJLHV
 &RPSDULVRQRIWKHFRVWVRIVWUDWHJLHVZLWKPRQHWLVHGHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVLQFOXGLQJ
H[SORUDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWVRIXQFHUWDLQWLHV SDUWLFXODUO\WKRVHDIIHFWLQJEHQHILWVHVWLPDWHV
RQQHWFRVWVEHQHILWV
 6HQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLV

,QWKHILUVWLQVWDQFHWKHVHDFWLYLWLHVDUHFDUULHGDVFDVHVWXGLHVRQDVPDOOQXPEHURIFLWLHV
RQHFLW\LQHDFKRIWKH8.*HUPDQ\DQG*UHHFH )ROORZLQJWKDWWKHUHVXOWVDUHVFDOHGXS
WRWKHOHYHORIWKH(8

 6758&785(2)7+,65(3257
7KHUHSRUWLVVWUXFWXUHGDVIROORZV&KDSWHUVWRVXPPDULVHPRVWRIWKHUDZGDWDXVHGLQ
WKHVWXG\DQG&KDSWHUGHVFULEHVKRZWKHVHGDWDDUHEURXJKWWRJHWKHUIRUWKHDQDO\VLV
0RUHSUHFLVHO\&KDSWHUSURYLGHVGHWDLOVRIWKHVFHQDULRVWKDWDUHEHLQJFRQVLGHUHGDQG
WKHPDLQVRXUFHVRIHPLVVLRQVIRUWKHWZRSROOXWDQWV&KDSWHUGLVFXVVHVWKHHIIHFWVOLQNHG
WRUHGXFWLRQRIHPLVVLRQVRIFDUERQPRQR[LGHDQGEHQ]HQHUHVSHFWLYHO\LQFOXGLQJLQGLUHFW
HIIHFWVDQGGHVFULEHVWKHUDWLRQDOHIROORZHGKHUHIRULQFOXGLQJDQGH[FOXGLQJVSHFLILFHIIHFWV
IURPWKHDQDO\VLV&KDSWHUUHYLHZVLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHWHFKQLFDODQGQRQWHFKQLFDO
PHDVXUHVDYDLODEOHIRUUHGXFWLRQRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRU
WKHGRPLQDQWVRXUFHRIXUEDQH[SRVXUHWRERWKSROOXWDQWVLQWKHDPELHQWDLU

5HVXOWVIRUFDVHVWXGLHVFRQVLGHULQJWKHVLWXDWLRQLQ$WKHQV&RORJQHDQG/RQGRQDQGWKH
H[WUDSRODWLRQRIWKHVHUHVXOWVWRWKHOHYHORIWKH(8DUHJLYHQLQ&KDSWHUVDQGIRU&2
DQGEHQ]HQHUHVSHFWLYHO\IROORZHGE\FRQFOXVLRQVIRUWKHVWXG\

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
%DFNJURXQGGDWDDUHJLYHQLQDVHULHVRIDSSHQGLFHV

• $SSHQGL[,)DFWRUVIRUFRQYHUWLQJ&2DQGEHQ]HQHPHDVXUHV
• $SSHQGL[,,$EULHIJORVVDU\RIPHGLFDOWHUPVXVHGLQWKHUHSRUW
• $SSHQGL[,,,5HYLHZRIGDWDXVHGIRUFRQYHUWLQJEHWZHHQXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGKRW
VSRWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQXUEDQDUHDV
• $SSHQGL[,9/LVWLQJRIOHJLVODWLRQFRQVLGHUHGWREHLQIRUFHLQWKHEDVHOLQHVFHQDULR
• $SSHQGL[95HYLHZRIGDWDRQUHGXFLQJHPLVVLRQVRIEHQ]HQHIURPVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHV


$($7HFKQRORJ\
$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
 6FHQDULRVDQG(PLVVLRQ6RXUFHV

 ,1752'8&7,21
7ZREDVHOLQHVFHQDULRVKDYHEHHQGHILQHG7KHILUVWFRQVLGHUVWKHILQDOLVHG$XWR2LO
'LUHFWLYHVRQIXHOTXDOLW\DQGHPLVVLRQVIURPPRWRUYHKLFOHV 7KHVHFRQGLQWHJUDWHVWKH


ILQGLQJVRIWKHHFRQRPLFHYDOXDWLRQIRUDLUTXDOLW\OLPLWVIRU62 12 30 DQGOHDG


 [ 

,90 7KH6ROYHQWV'LUHFWLYH &20   VHHPVXQOLNHO\WRKDYHDVLJQLILFDQW


HIIHFWRQEHQ]HQHOHYHOVVSHFLILFDOO\DQGKHQFHLWVHIIHFWVKDYHQRWEHHQFRQVLGHUHG

,QHYLWDEO\RWKHUDFWLRQVLQWKHIXWXUHZLOOLQIOXHQFHWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQH
$SDUWLFXODUH[DPSOHDWWKHSUHVHQWWLPHFRQFHUQVWKHHIIHFWRIWKH.\RWRVXPPLWRQFOLPDWH
FKDQJH*LYHQWKDWWKHPDLQVRXUFHRIERWKEHQ]HQHDQG&2LQWKHDPELHQWDLULVIRVVLO
IXHOXVHPXFKRIZKLFKLVIURPWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUDQ\PHDVXUHVWRUHGXFH&2 

HPLVVLRQVIURPWUDQVSRUWZRXOGVHHPOLNHO\WRDIIHFWHPLVVLRQVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHDVZHOO
&RQVLGHUDWLRQRIDGGLWLRQDOPHDVXUHVIRUJUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQZDVQRWPDGH
IRUWKLVVWXG\EHFDXVHWKHUHTXLUHGOHJLVODWLRQKDVQRWSURJUHVVHGIDUHQRXJKIRULQWHJUDWLRQ
LQWKLVVWXG\ZLWKDQ\FRQILGHQFH7KHUHLVDOVRJRRGHYLGHQFHQRZWKDWWKH,90DQDO\VLV
ZDVWRRFRQVHUYDWLYHLQLWVSUHGLFWLRQVRI30 DQG12 OHYHOVDQGWKDWDGGLWLRQDOPHDVXUHV
 [

ZLOOQHHGWREHWDNHQWRHQVXUHFRPSOLDQFHZLWKOLPLWYDOXHVIRUWKRVHSROOXWDQWV7KLVWRR
ZLOODIIHFWOHYHOVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQH$QRWKHUH[DPSOHFRQFHUQVPHDVXUHVWRDEDWH92&
HPLVVLRQV LQFOXGLQJRIFRXUVHEHQ]HQHDPRQJVWPDQ\RWKHUVSHFLHVRI92& WRUHGXFH
WURSRVSKHULFR]RQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV7KHHIIHFWRILQFOXVLRQRIWKHVHPHDVXUHVLVGHVFULEHG
RQO\TXDOLWDWLYHO\LQWKLVUHSRUW

$23,SURYLGHVDJRRGVWDUWLQJSRLQWIRURXUDQDO\VLV,WZDVZLGHO\GLVFXVVHGDFURVV
(XURSHDQGKHQFHDODUJHQXPEHURISHRSOHDUHDZDUHRIWKHDGYDQWDJHVDQGOLPLWDWLRQVRI
WKDWZRUN,WDOVRDGGUHVVHGERWK&2DQGEHQ]HQHVSHFLILFDOO\,WZDVSUHGLFWHGWKDWWKHUH
ZRXOGRQO\EHH[FHHGHQFHRIOLPLWYDOXHVIRUEHQ]HQHDQG&2LIWKHVWDQGDUGVWREH
DGRSWHGIRUDLUTXDOLW\ZHUHLQWKHZRUGVRIWKHDXWKRUV´YHU\VHYHUHµ+RZHYHUDQ
LPSRUWDQWFDYHDWZDVDGGHGWRWKLVIRUDOOSROOXWDQWV (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,
SDJH UHFRJQLVLQJWKDWWKH$23,FRQFOXVLRQVVWULFWO\DSSOLHGRQO\WRXUEDQEDFNJURXQG
ORFDWLRQV,WZDVWKHQVWDWHGWKDW

¶,IIXWXUH(XURSHDQDLUTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGVDUHWREHPHWDWURDGVLGHORFDWLRQVIXUWKHU
UHGXFWLRQVWKDQWKRVHSUHGLFWHG>LQ$XWR2LO@PD\EHUHTXLUHG·

,QYDULRXVGLVFXVVLRQVRIWKHVWDQGDUGVIRUDPELHQWDLUTXDOLW\LQZRUNLQJJURXSVWKH
VWHHULQJJURXSDQGWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQLWZDVDJUHHGWKDWWKHVWDQGDUGVVKRXOGEH
PHWDWURDGVLGHORFDWLRQV7KHILQGLQJVIURP$23,DUHWKHUHIRUHRIOLPLWHGLPSRUWDQFH

 

7KHSUHYLRXVGUDIWUHSRUWVXQGHUWKLVFRQWUDFWZHUHZULWWHQEHIRUHWKHILQDOSRVLWLRQRQWKHVHGLUHFWLYHVZDV
DJUHHG,QFRUSRUDWLRQRIWKHILQDOGHFLVLRQRQWKHVH'LUHFWLYHVKDVPDGHDVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHWRWKHUHVXOWV
RIWKHFRVWEHQHILWDVVHVVPHQWLQVRPHFRXQWULHV


$($7HFKQRORJ\
KHUH+RZHYHUWKH\UHPDLQXVHIXODQGVRIXUWKHUGHWDLOVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOHVDQG
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;, 7KHQHFHVVDU\UHGXFWLRQVLQHPLVVLRQVLQERWK
0DGULGDQG0LODQZHUHDVVXPHGWREH]HURIROORZLQJFRPSDULVRQZLWKWKHDQDO\VLV
FRQGXFWHGLQWKHRWKHUILYHFLWLHV

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
7DEOH(PLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQWDUJHWVIRU&2XQGHU$23,$OOILJXUHVDUHJLYHQDV
DQQXDOPHDQFRQFHQWUDWLRQV7KHPJP OLPLWFRUUHVSRQGVWRDQKRXUOLPLWRI


PJP DVWKSHUFHQWLOH LHH[FHHGHGIRURQO\RIWKH\HDU 7KHPJP OLPLW


 

FRUUHVSRQGVWRDQKRXUOLPLWRIPJP ZLWKQRH[FHHGHQFHV


&LW\  PD[ (PLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQIRU (PLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQ


DQQXDO OHYHO XSSHUWDUJHWOHYHO IRUORZHUWDUJHWOHYHO
PHDQ PJP PJP LQ PJP LQ
PJP
$WKHQV    
.ROQ    
/RQGRQ    
/\RQ    
0DGULG  QRWHVWLPDWHG DVVXPHG DVVXPHG
0LODQ  QRWHVWLPDWHG DVVXPHG DVVXPHG
7KH+DJXH QRW   
PHDVXUHG

7DEOH(PLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQWDUJHWVRIEHQ]HQHXQGHU$23,$OOOLPLWVDVDQQXDO
PHDQV

&LW\ PD[ (PLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQ (PLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQ (PLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQ


OHYHO IRUXSSHUWDUJHW IRUORZHUWDUJHWOHYHO WRPHHWWDUJHWYDOXH
µJP OHYHO µJP LQ RIµJPLQ
µJP LQ
$WKHQV    
.ROQ    
/RQGRQ    
/\RQ    
0DGULG    
0LODQ    
7KH+DJXH    

 6285&(62)&2$1'%(1=(1(
7KHPDLQVRXUFHRIEHQ]HQHZLWKLQWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQLVWUDIILFDVVKRZQLQ7DEOH
ZKLFKEULQJVWRJHWKHULQIRUPDWLRQIURPILYHFRXQWULHVVXEPLWWHGWRWKH:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ
%HQ]HQH ,,$ 7KHUHLVDODFNRIFRQVLVWHQF\LQWKHFODVVLILFDWLRQEHWZHHQGLIIHUHQW
FRXQWULHV$FOHDUHUSLFWXUHFDQEHJLYHQ 7DEOH E\DGGLQJGDWDLQWRILYHGLIIHUHQW
FDWHJRULHV
$ 7UDQVSRUW
% (QHUJ\LQGXVWULHV
& 1RQHQHUJ\LQGXVWULHV
' 'RPHVWLF
( 2WKHU


$($7HFKQRORJ\
7DEOH3HUFHQWDJHHPLVVLRQVRIEHQ]HQHIURPGLIIHUHQWVRXUFHVLQ,WDO\6ZHGHQ
*HUPDQ\WKH1HWKHUODQGVDQGWKH8.

,WDO\ 6ZH *HU 1HW 8. (XURSH


K
7RWDOEHQ]HQH NWRQQHV\HDU      "
<HDU      "

6RXUFH
$ 9HKLFXODUWUDIILF    
$ 5RDGWUDIILFLQFOXGLQJSHWURO 
HYDSDVSKDOWLQJ
$ 3HWUROHQJLQHV 
$ 'LHVHOHQJLQHV 
$ 2WKHUPRELOHVVRXUFHV  
$ 9HKLFOHHYDSRUDWLRQ  
$ (YDSRUDWLYHHPLVVLRQV 
% 3HWUROHXPUHILQHULHV 
% (QHUJ\SURGXFWLRQ 
% )XHOGLVWULEXWLRQ 
% 6WDWLRQDU\FRPEXVWLRQ 
% *DVOHDNDJH
% 3RZHUJHQHUDWLRQ 
% 3URGGLVWULEXWLRQHYDS  
% 6PDOOVFDOHZRRGFRPEXVWLRQ 
& ,QGXVWU\    
& &KHPLFDOLQGXVWU\ 
& :RUNLQJPDFKLQHU\ 
& 6ROYHQWXVH  
& 3HVWLFLGHV 
& &RPEXVWLRQRIRLOHWF
& 2WKHULQGXVWU\
' 'RPHVWLFXVH   
' 'RPHVWLFVPDOOLQVWDOODWLRQV 
( 2WKHU   

7DEOH&ROODWHGGDWDRQSHUFHQWDJHRIHPLVVLRQVRIEHQ]HQHIURPGLIIHUHQWVRXUFHVIRU
WKHFRXQWULHVVKRZQLQ7DEOH

,WDO\ 6ZH *HU 1HW 8. (XURSH


K
$ 7UDQVSRUW      
% (QHUJ\LQGXVWULHV      
& 2WKHULQGXVWU\   
' 'RPHVWLF      

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
( 2WKHU     
1RWH'DWDH[FOXGHVEHQ]HQHIURPQDWXUDOVRXUFHV HVWRIWRWDO 

5HVXOWVIRU,WDO\*HUPDQ\DQGWKH8.DSSHDUWREHFRQVLVWHQW'DWDIRU6ZHGHQDQGWKH
1HWKHUODQGVDUHQRWZLWKKLJKSURSRUWLRQVRIHPLVVLRQVDULVLQJIURPVPDOOVFDOHZRRG
FRPEXVWLRQDQGSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQUHVSHFWLYHO\7KHVHGDWDVXJJHVWWKDWIXUWKHUDFWLRQLV
QHHGHGWRHQVXUHFRQVLVWHQF\EHWZHHQHPLVVLRQLQYHQWRULHVLQGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHV8QOHVV
WKHLQYHQWRULHVDUHFRPSUHKHQVLYHWKHUHLVDULVNWKDWSROLFLHVLGHQWLILHGIRUHPLVVLRQV
DEDWHPHQWFRXOGEHIDUIURPRSWLPDO,WPXVWEHDGGHGWKDWLQWKHSUHVHQWFDVHWKLVVHHPV
XQOLNHO\DVWKHUHLVJRRGFRQVHQVXVWKDWWKHSUREOHPVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHDUHPDLQO\WUDIILF
UHODWHG

'DWDIRU&2DUHVKRZQLQ7DEOHGUDZLQJRQ&25,1$,5  7KHKLJKHVW


HPLVVLRQVDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKURDGWUDQVSRUWDQG¶FRPEXVWLRQ·

7DEOH(PLVVLRQVRI&2LQWKH(8LQ$OOILJXUHVJLYHQDVSHUFHQWDJHVH[FHSWWKH
WRWDOVIRUWKH(8ZKLFKDUHH[SUHVVHGLQWRQQHV 6RXUFH&25,1$,5 

Combustion Production Road transport Other mobile Waste Other


processes
Austria 43% 25% 31% 1% 0% 0%
Belgium 11% 1% 85% 0% 2% 0%
Denmark 26% 0% 58% 11% 0% 7%
Finland 20% 0% 71% 9% 0% 0%
France 25% 6% 54% 10% 2% 20%
Germany 29% 9% 58% 4% 0% 2%
Greece 2% 2% 82% 3% 0% 25%
Ireland 20% 0% 78% 2% 0% 0%
Italy 8% 5% 63% 7% 17% 6%
Luxembourg 58% 10% 30% 2% 0% 0%
Netherlands 25% 12% 56% 3% 0% 7%
Portugal 36% 1% 61% 1% 0% 0%
Spain 27% 5% 57% 2% 7% 24%
Sweden 2% 0% 89% 8% 0% 0%
UK 9% 0% 88% 1% 1% 9%
EU % 20% 6% 63% 5% 5% 1%
EU 1000 t 8636 2423 27839 2418 2156 543

)RUERWK&2DQGEHQ]HQHWKHVRXUFHRIPRVWFRQFHUQLVURDGWUDQVSRUWDQGKHQFHWKLVLV
WKHVRXUFHWKDWWKHSUHVHQWUHSRUWLVIRFXVHGRQ

 6&(1$5,26
7KHPDLQDQDO\VLVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVVWXG\FRQFHQWUDWHVRQWKHHIIHFWVRIYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQV
JLYHQWKDWWKH\DUHWKHGRPLQDQWVRXUFHRIWKHSROOXWDQWVRILQWHUHVWKHUH7KHEDVHOLQH
VFHQDULRIRUWKHDQDO\VLVFRQVLGHUVDOOOHJLVODWLRQRQYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQVDQGIXHOTXDOLW\XSWR


$($7HFKQRORJ\
WKHILQDOSRVLWLRQRQ$XWR2LOLQZKLFKSUHYLRXVO\LQGLFDWLYHVWDQGDUGVIRUZHUHPDGH
PDQGDWRU\7KHOHJLVODWLRQLVOLVWHGLQ$SSHQGL[)RU$WKHQVDORQHWKLVZDVXSGDWHGWR
WDNHDFFRXQWRILQWURGXFLQJWKHGDXJKWHU'LUHFWLYHRQ12 30 62 DQGOHDG$WKHQV
  

ZDVWKHRQO\RQHRIWKHWKUHHFLWLHVFRQVLGHUHGLQWKHFDVHVWXGLHVSUHVHQWHGLQWKLVUHSRUW
IRUZKLFKDQHDUOLHUFRQVXOWDQWVUHSRUW ,90 FRQFOXGHGWKDWH[FHHGHQFHVZRXOGEH
REVHUYHGXQGHUWKHILUVWGDXJKWHU'LUHFWLYH7KHPHDVXUHVLGHQWLILHGE\,90 URDGSULFLQJ
DQGWKHXVHRIEXVHVSRZHUHGE\FRPSUHVVHGQDWXUDOJDV&1* ZHUHWKXVDSSOLHGWR
$WKHQVEXWQRWWR&RORJQHRU/RQGRQ

 &216(48(1&(62)$1((')25025(675,1*(17$&7,212112
$1'307+$1)25(6((1%<,90 
$QDO\VLVLQWKH8.VXJJHVWVWKDWH[FHHGHQFHVRI12 DQG30 FRXOGEHPRUHZLGHVSUHDG
 

WKDQWKH,90UHSRUWLQGLFDWHGLIVSHFLILFDFFRXQWZHUHWDNHQRIOHYHOVDWNHUEVLGH -RKQVRQ
HWDO 7KLVZRXOGDSSHDUWRDSSO\HOVHZKHUHLQWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQDOVR7KH
PHDVXUHVWKDWZRXOGQHHGWREHLQWURGXFHGZRXOGLQFOXGHWKRVHLGHQWLILHGE\,90DQG
RWKHUVWKDWZRXOGDOVRLPSDFWRQ&2DQGEHQ]HQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV$OLVWRISRVVLEOH
PHDVXUHVZDVSURYLGHGE\WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ·V:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ12  (XURSHDQ 

&RPPLVVLRQ:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ12  DQGLVUHSURGXFHGKHUHDV7DEOH0RVWRI




WKHPHDVXUHVOLVWHGZRXOGLQIOXHQFH&2DQGEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQVDOVR

7DEOH$FWLRQVIRUUHGXFWLRQRI12 FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQDLU (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ




:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ12  


(8/HYHO 1DWLRQDO/HYHO /RFDO/HYHO


9HKLFOHHPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQ (PLVVLRQVWDQGDUGV /RFDOYHKLFOHUHVWULFWLRQV
9HKLFOHLQVSHFWLRQ (QYLURQPHQWDOSHUPLW $OWHUQDWLYHIXHOV
(QHUJ\FRQVHUYDWLRQ (QHUJ\FRQVHUYDWLRQ (QHUJ\FRQVHUYDWLRQ
3RLQWVRXUFHHPLVVLRQ
UHGXFWLRQV
)XHOVWDQGDUGV

$LUTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGV 7UDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUH $OWHUQDWLYHWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV


)LVFDOLQFHQWLYHV )LVFDOLQFHQWLYHV 5RDGDQGSDUNLQJSULFLQJ
6XVWDLQDEOHFLW\SODQQLQJ ,QIRUPDWLFKLJKZD\V 7UDIILFSODQQLQJ
PDQDJHPHQW
%HKDYLRXUHGXFDWLRQ %HKDYLRXUHGXFDWLRQ %HKDYLRXUHGXFDWLRQ
DZDUHQHVV DZDUHQHVV DZDUHQHVV
7UDIILFSODQQLQJ 7UDIILFSODQQLQJ 7UDQVSRUWV\VWHPSODQQLQJ
6FUDSSLQJVXEVLGLHV 7UDIILFLQIRUPDWLRQ
(QYLURQPHQWDO]RQLQJ

5HVHDUFK 5HVHDUFK

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
,WZRXOGEHH[SHFWHGWKDWJHQHUDOPHDVXUHVWRUHGXFHYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQVZLOOFDXVHDJUHDWHU
SHUFHQWDJHUHGXFWLRQLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHWKDQRI12 RU30 7KLVLV
 

EHFDXVHRIWKHODUJHUFRQWULEXWLRQRIVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHVWRFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI12 DQGQRQ


WUDQVSRUWVRXUFHVJHQHUDOO\ LQFOXGLQJQDWXUDOSDUWLFXODWHV IRU30 7KHHIIHFWRIHUURULQ




TXDQWLI\LQJQHFHVVDU\DEDWHPHQWIRUWKHILUVWGDXJKWHU'LUHFWLYHFRXOGWKXVEHVLJQLILFDQW
IRUWKHDQDO\VLVSUHVHQWHGKHUH


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 /,0,79$/8(6$66(66(',17+,6678'<
7KH6WHHULQJ*URXSRQ$PELHQW$LU4XDOLW\FRQYHQHGE\(&'*;,UHTXHVWHGWKDWWZR
OLPLWYDOXHVEHLQYHVWLJDWHGIRU&2DQGWKUHHIRUEHQ]HQH1RQHRIWKHVHYDOXHVZHUHWREH
UHJDUGHGGXULQJWKHDQDO\VLVDVSUHIHUUHGWRDQ\RWKHU,WZDVDOVRVDLGWKDWWKHDQDO\VLV
VKRXOGWDNHVSHFLILFDFFRXQWRIERWKXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQG¶KRWVSRW·ORFDWLRQVSDUWLFXODUO\
SDUWLDOO\HQFORVHGDUHDVZKHUHHPLVVLRQVDUHKLJKVXFKDVWKHVRFDOOHG¶FDQ\RQVWUHHWV·
7KHDQDO\VLVZDVQRWWRH[WHQGWRFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQVRPHPRUHHQFORVHG
DUHDVVXFKDVURDGWXQQHOVRUFDUSDUNV

 &2

:+2KDYHUHFRPPHQGHGDQXPEHURISRVVLEOHOLPLWOHYHOVRYHUDYHUDJLQJSHULRGVUDQJLQJ
IURPPLQXWHVWRKRXUV
PJP IRUPLQXWHV


PJP IRUPLQXWHV


PJP IRUKRXU


PJP IRUKRXUV


,QSUDFWLFHWKHKRXUOHYHOLVWKHPRVWSURWHFWLYHDYDLODEOHPRQLWRULQJGDWDVXJJHVWWKDW
WKHRWKHUJXLGHOLQHVDUHH[WUHPHO\XQOLNHO\WREHH[FHHGHGLIWKHKRXUJXLGHOLQHLVQRW
H[FHHGHG YDQGHQ+RXW 9DQGHQ+RXWIRXQGWKDWRIWKHGDWDVHULHVLQWKH
$3,6GDWDEDVHIRU&2LQWKHSHULRGWRDUHDERYHWKH:+2KRXUOLPLW

$VVKRZQDERYHWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDQDO\VLVFDUULHGRXWXQGHU$23,VKRZWKDWIRUWKH
FLWLHVVWXGLHG $WKHQV&RORJQHWKH+DJXH/RQGRQ/\RQ0DGULGDQG0LODQ WKHUHZRXOG
QRWEHH[FHHGHQFHRIWKHPJP KRXUJXLGHOLQHE\XUEDQEDFNJURXQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQV


E\WKH\HDU7KHPDMRUIDFWRULQWKLVLVWKHLQFUHDVHGSHQHWUDWLRQRIFDUVILWWHGZLWK
WKUHHZD\FDWDO\WLFFRQYHUWHUVZKLFKLVJRRGHQRXJKWRPRUHWKDQRXWZHLJKSURMHFWHG
LQFUHDVHVLQYHKLFOHXVDJH*LYHQWKDWWKHUDQJHRIFLWLHVVWXGLHGLQ$23,ZHUHVHOHFWHG
SDUWO\RQWKHEDVLVWKDWWKH\ZHUHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIFLWLHVDFURVVWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ
UHJDUGLQJDLUTXDOLW\VL]HORFDWLRQWRSRJUDSK\HWF WKLVLPSOLHVWKDWDPJP KRXU


VWDQGDUGZLOOQRWEHEUHDFKHGDQ\ZKHUHLQWKH(8DVDQXUEDQEDFNJURXQGOHYHO$23,
GLGQRWKRZHYHUDGGUHVVWKHVLWXDWLRQLQKRWVSRWV

7KHOLPLWYDOXHVFRQVLGHUHGKHUHIRU&2IRUZHUH
• PJP DVPD[LPXPKRXUDYHUDJH


• PJP DVVHFRQGKLJKHVWKRXUDYHUDJHLQDQ\\HDU


7KHVHFRQGPRUHUHOD[HGOLPLWYDOXHZDVLQFOXGHGWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHSRVVLELOLW\RI HJ
H[WUHPHZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV

 %HQ]HQH

:+2KDYHPDGHHVWLPDWHVRIWKHDYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIEHQ]HQHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDUDQJH
RIH[FHVVOLIHWLPHULVNRIOHXNDHPLDIURPDLUERUQHEHQ]HQHDVIROORZV 7DEOH 

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
7DEOH%HQ]HQHH[SRVXUHDQGH[FHVVOLIHWLPHULVNRIOHXNDHPLD :+2 

5LVN (VWLPDWHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQµJP
 
 
 

)URPWKH7DEOHWKHULVNQRUPDOLVHGSHUµJP FDQEHFDOFXODWHGE\GLYLGLQJULVNE\WKH


FRQFHQWUDWLRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKDWOHYHORIULVN%DVHGRQWKHGDWDJLYHQLQWKH7DEOHWKLV
JLYHVDQRUPDOLVHGULVNRI >@ HTXDOWRFDVHVSHUµJP 7KH:RUNLQJ


*URXSWRRNDVOLJKWO\ORZHUHVWLPDWHRIFDVHVSHUµJP  VHHEHORZ 


7KHWHUPH[FHVVOLIHWLPHULVNUHIHUVWRWKHSUREDELOLW\WKDWDQLQGLYLGXDOZRXOGH[SHULHQFH
WKDWULVN LQWKLVFDVHGHYHORSFDQFHU ZLWKLQWKHLUOLIHWLPHDVDFRQVHTXHQFHRIH[SRVXUHWR
WKHDJHQWRIFRQFHUQLQWKLVFDVHEHQ]HQH7KHULVNLV¶H[FHVV·LQWKHVHQVHWKDWLWLV
DGGLWLRQDOWRWKHXQGHUO\LQJULVNRIGHYHORSLQJFDQFHU)DFWRUVDUHGLYLGHGE\DYHUDJHOLIH
H[SHFWDQF\WRREWDLQWKHDQQXDOH[FHVVLQFLGHQFHRIFDQFHU

$QDGKRFZRUNLQJJURXSFRQYHQHGXQGHUWKH:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ%HQ]HQHIXUWKHU
UHYLHZHGGDWDRQEHQ]HQHULVN7KH\WKRXJKWWKDWWKH:+2HVWLPDWHHUUHGWRZDUGVEHLQJ
WRRFRQVHUYDWLYH LHDQRYHUHVWLPDWHRIULVN DQGSUHIHUUHGWRFLWHDUDQJHIRUWKHH[SRVXUH
UHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQ7KLVUDQJHLVH[WUHPHO\EURDG8QFHUWDLQW\DULVHVEHFDXVHWKH
SRSXODWLRQIRUZKLFKH[SRVXUHHIIHFWGDWDDUHDYDLODEOHH[SHULHQFHDYHU\GLIIHUHQWUHJLPH
UHODWLYHO\VKRUWGXUDWLRQWRKLJKH[SRVXUHV WRWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ OLIHWLPHH[SRVXUHVWR
YHU\ORZFRQFHQWUDWLRQV 7KHUHFRPPHQGHGUDQJHWKXVVSDQVRUGHUVRIPDJQLWXGH 


SHUµJP WR SHUµJP $OWKRXJKWKLVUDQJHLVEURDGWKHODFNRIGDWDRQEHQ]HQH
  

H[SRVXUHVDWORZFRQFHQWUDWLRQVGRHVQRWSHUPLWLWWREHUHGXFHGRULQIHUHQFHWREHGUDZQ
RQWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRISUREDELOLWLHVZLWKLQWKHUDQJH7KLVVRXUFHRIXQFHUWDLQW\QRW
VXUSULVLQJO\GRPLQDWHVHVWLPDWHVRIWKHGLUHFWEHQHILWVRIUHGXFLQJEHQ]HQHOHYHOV

8QGHU$23,DVWDQGDUGRIµJP ZDVUHJDUGHGDVEHLQJYHU\VHYHUHIURPWKH


SHUVSHFWLYHRIDFKLHYHPHQW (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;, 1RQHWKHOHVVEHFDXVHRI


EHQ]HQH·VUROHDVDFDUFLQRJHQIRUZKLFKLWLVJHQHUDOO\FRQVLGHUHGWKDWWKHUHLVQRWUXO\
¶VDIH·OHYHODQXPEHURI(80HPEHU6WDWHVKDYHVHWYHU\ORZOLPLWVWREHPHWLQWKHORQJ
WHUP$FFRXQWLQJIRUWKHYDULDWLRQLQSHUFHLYHGULVNRIKDUPIURPEHQ]HQHWKHVWHHULQJ
JURXSRQDLUTXDOLW\UHTXHVWHGWKDWWKLVVWXG\FRQVLGHUOLPLWYDOXHVRIDQGµJP 


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 (IIHFWVRI(PLVVLRQVRI&2DQG%HQ]HQH
DQG([SRVXUH'DWD

 &$5%210212;,'(
 (IIHFWVRI&2

&DUERQPRQR[LGHLVSHUKDSVXQLTXHDPRQJVWWKHPDMRUDLUSROOXWDQWVLQKDYLQJIRUPDQ\
\HDUVDNQRZQPHFKDQLVPRIHIIHFWRQKXPDQKHDOWKWKHIRUPDWLRQRI
FDUER[\KDHPRJORELQ &2+E DQGDVVRFLDWHGUHGXFWLRQLQWKHR[\JHQFDUU\LQJFDSDFLW\RI
WKHEORRG7DEOHUHYLHZVWKHHIIHFWVRILQFUHDVLQJFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI&2+ELQWKH
EORRGVWUHDP

7DEOH(IIHFWVRILQFUHDVLQJOHYHOVRIFDUER[\KDHPRJORELQ &2+E LQWKHKXPDQ


ERG\

(IIHFW &2+EOHYHO  5HIHUHQFH


'HFUHDVHGH[HUFLVH  $URQRZHWDO  
GXUDWLRQLQSDWLHQWVZLWK $URQRZDQG,VEHOO 
DQJLQD DQG$QGHUVRQHWDO 
,QFUHDVHGIUHTXHQFLHVRI QRHIIHFWDW 6KHSVHWDO 
DUK\WKPLDVLQSDWLHQWVZLWK HIIHFWDW
FRURQDU\GLVHDVH
/RZELUWKZHLJKW )RHWDOOHYHORI /RQJRHWDO 
FDXVHGE\PDWHUQDO
VPRNLQJ
5HGXFHGFRRUGLQDWLRQ  $&*,+&KHPLFDO
WUDFNLQJDQGGULYLQJDELOLW\ 6XEVWDQFHV7/9
&RPPLWWHH  3XW]
 DQG%HQLJQXVHWDO

5HGXFHGFRJQLWLYH  /DWLHVDQG0HULJDQ 
SHUIRUPDQFH
7KUREELQJ+HDGDFKH  (3$46 
'L]]LQHVVQDXVHD  (3$46 
ZHDNQHVVDQGFROODSVH
&RPDDQGGHDWK  86(3$ 

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
,WLVQRWSRVVLEOHWRXVHWKHGDWDLQ7DEOHIRUTXDQWLILFDWLRQRILPSDFWVDQGDVVRFLDWHG
FRVWVIURPH[SRVXUHWRDPELHQWOHYHOVRI&2JLYHQDODFNRIGDWDLQWKUHHDUHDV
&2+EFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ
$ODFNRITXDQWLILHGH[SRVXUHUHVSRQVHGDWDIRUWKHHIIHFWVOLVWHG
$ODFNRIYDOXDWLRQGDWDIRUVRPHRIWKHKHDOWKHIIHFWVOLVWHG

7DEOHQHHGVWREHSXWLQWRFRQWH[WDJDLQVWDPELHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI&2LQ(XURSHDQ
FLWLHVWRVKRZZKDWOHYHORIHIIHFWLVOLNHO\IURPH[SRVXUHWRDPELHQWVRXUFHVRI&2'DWD
SUHVHQWHGLQWKH(3$46 D UHYLHZLQWKH8.VKRZWKDWQRQVPRNHUVHQJDJLQJLQD
YDULHW\RIDFWLYLWLHVLQORFDWLRQVVXEMHFWWRGLIIHUHQW&2FRQFHQWUDWLRQVDUHXQOLNHO\WRKDYH
&2+EOHYHOVLQH[FHVVRI 7DEOH /HYHOVXSWRDURXQGDUHSRVVLEOHDPRQJ
VPRNHUV([SRVXUHWR&2DWVXIILFLHQWO\KLJKOHYHOVWROHDGWRWKHKLJK&2+E
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKUREELQJKHDGDFKHGL]]LQHVVFRPDRUGHDWKLVOLQNHGWR
IDXOW\GRPHVWLFDSSOLDQFHVSDUWLFXODUO\XQYHQWHGZDWHUKHDWHUVDQGVXLFLGHIURPGHOLEHUDWH
LQKDODWLRQRIFDUH[KDXVWIXPHV ,WLVQRWDVVRFLDWHGZLWKH[SRVXUHLQWKHRSHQDLU0XFK


RIWKHGDWDXVHGLQ7DEOHLVROGGDWLQJIURPWKHV*LYHQPHDVXUHVWKDWKDYHEHHQ
LQWURGXFHGWROLPLW&2HPLVVLRQVDOUHDG\LWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWXQGHUFXUUHQWFRQGLWLRQV
H[SRVXUHWR&2LVOHVVWKDQWKDWVKRZQ

7DEOH&2+EOHYHOVLQWKHSRSXODWLRQXQGHUGLIIHUHQWH[SRVXUHFRQGLWLRQV (3$46
D 

([SRVXUHVLWXDWLRQ &2+E
1RQVPRNHUV 6PRNHUV
&DOFXODWHGYDOXHV
5XUDOEDFNJURXQGH[SRVXUH 

8UEDQH[SRVXUHWRSSP 
 
8UEDQH[SRVXUHWRSSP 
 
0HDVXUHGYDOXHV 

8UEDQEDFNJURXQGH[SRVXUH  


3RLQWGXW\SROLFH DIWHUKRXUVLQEXV\  
VWUHHW
2WKHUVRQIRRWLQEXV\VWUHHWV  
&\FOLVWV FLW\VWUHHWV  
0RWRULVWV  
6WDIILQSDUNLQJJDUDJHV  
6WDIILQFXVWRPVVKHGVIHUULHV  
1RWHV 5HSUHVHQWVEDFNJURXQGYDOXHGXHWRWKHQDWXUDOIRUPDWLRQRI&2LQWKHERG\ 9DOXHVHVWLPDWHG
RQWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWLQGLYLGXDOVDUHWDNLQJOLJKWH[HUFLVHZKLOVWFRQWLQXRXVO\H[SRVHGWRWKHJLYHQ
FRQFHQWUDWLRQIRUKRXUV $GDSWHGIURP/DZWKHUDQG&RPPLQV  IURPPHDVXUHPHQWVWDNHQLQWKH
ODWHVLQJURXSVRIEHWZHHQDQGSHRSOH(3$46FRPPHQWWKDWWKH\H[SHFWOHYHOVRI&2+EWREH
ORZHUQRZ

 

7KHDGRSWLRQRIWKUHHZD\FDWDO\WLFFRQYHUWHUVKDVKDGDQRWDEOHHIIHFWRQUHGXFLQJWKHVXFFHVVUDWHRIVXFK
DWWHPSWVDWGHOLEHUDWHVXLFLGH


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 (SLGHPLRORJLFDOGDWD

7KHUHLVUHODWLYHO\OLWWOHHSLGHPLRORJLFDOHYLGHQFHRQ&2VRLWLVGLIILFXOWWRSODFHWKHUHVXOWV
IURPDIHZ ZHOOFRQGXFWHG VWXGLHVWKDWUHSRUWSRVLWLYHDVVRFLDWLRQVLQFRQWH[W7KHVH
VWXGLHVSURYLGHWKHEDVLVIRUH[SRVXUHUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQVEXWWKH\GRQRWJLYHVWURQJ
JXLGDQFHRQKRZUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRUWUDQVIHUDEOHWKHVHIXQFWLRQVDUH7KHQHZ
HSLGHPLRORJLFDOGDWDZDVQRWDFFRXQWHGIRULQWKHVHWWLQJRIUHYLVHGDLUTXDOLW\JXLGHOLQHVIRU
&2E\:+2RUE\(3$46+HUHWKHPDLQVWXGLHVDUHUHYLHZHG

 $FXWH0RUWDOLW\DQG&27RXORXPLHWDO

7RXORXPLHWDO  VWXGLHGGDLO\PRUWDOLW\GDWDIURP$WKHQVLQWKHSHULRGWR


7KHVWXG\TXDQWLILHGOHYHOVRIEODFNVPRNHVXOSKXUGLR[LGHDQGFDUERQPRQR[LGH7KHUH
ZDVDKLJKO\VLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQGDLO\PRUWDOLW\DQGGDLO\&2DGMXVWLQJIRU
WHPSHUDWXUHUHODWLYHKXPLGLW\\HDUVHDVRQDQGGD\RIWKHZHHNJLYLQJDQLQFUHDVHLQGDLO\
PRUWDOLW\RISHUPJP &2 KUPHDQ +RZHYHUDIWHUDGMXVWLQJIRU62DQGRU


EODFNVPRNHWKLVUHODWLRQVKLSEHFDPHQRQVLJQLILFDQW

7KH ILQGLQJ ZDV SDUWLDOO\ FRUURERUDWHG E\ D ODWHU VWXG\ RI PRUWDOLW\ LQ $WKHQV LQ 
7RXORXPL HW DO    $GMXVWLQJ DV XVXDO IRU WLPH WUHQGV DQG FOLPDWH WKLV ODWHU VWXG\
IRXQG D VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW RI &2 RQ GDLO\ GHDWKV LQ VLQJOHSROOXWDQW PRGHOV
+RZHYHU WKH HIIHFW RI &2 ZDV QRW H[DPLQHG LQ DGMXVWLQJ IRU EODFN VPRNH RU 62  

9HUKRHIIHWDO  VWXG\LQJGDLO\PRUWDOLW\LQWKHSHULRGLQ$PVWHUGDPIRXQG


UHODWLRQVKLSVZLWKVHYHUDOSROOXWDQWVEXWQRWZLWK&2

6RPH VWXGLHV LQ /RV $QJHOHV IRU H[DPSOH .LQQH\ HW DO   KDYH VKRZQ HIIHFWV RQ
PRUWDOLW\ WKRXJK WKH HVWLPDWHG ULVNV ZHUH ORZHU WKDQ WKRVH LQ $WKHQV GHVFULEHG DERYH
7KHUHLVDOVRHYLGHQFHRI&2HIIHFWVRQPRUWDOLW\IURPVRPHRWKHUVWXGLHV

 6FKZDUW]DQG0RUULV$VVRFLDWLRQVEHWZHHQFDUGLRYDVFXODUKRVSLWDO
DGPLVVLRQVDQG30DQG&2

6FKZDUW]DQG0RUULV  H[DPLQHGWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDLUSROOXWLRQDQG


FDUGLRYDVFXODUDGPLVVLRQVLQ'HWURLW0LFKLJDQIRUSHRSOHDJHG\HDUVDQGROGHUGXULQJ
WKHSHULRGIURPWR$LUSROOXWDQWVFRQVLGHUHGZHUH30R]RQH62DQG&2
'DLO\DGPLVVLRQVZHUHREWDLQHGIRULVFKDHPLFKHDUWGLVHDVHFDUGLDFG\VUK\WKPLDVDQG
FRQJHVWLYHKHDUWIDLOXUHLQWKHSRSXODWLRQDJHG\HDUVDQGROGHU

&RQJHVWLYHKHDUWIDLOXUH &+) DQG&2


7KHUHZDVDVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQRI&2ZLWKDGPLVVLRQVIRUFRQJHVWLYHKHDUWIDLOXUH2Q
DGGLQJ30WRWKLVPRGHOWKHDVVRFLDWLRQZLWK&2UHPDLQHGVLJQLILFDQWDQGKHQFHVXJJHVWV
DQLQGHSHQGHQWHIIHFWRI&2$VWKH3RLVVRQPRGHOZDVXVHGWKLVFDQEHLQWHUSUHWHGDVWKH
SHUFHQWDJHLQFUHDVHLQ&+)DGPLVVLRQVSHULQFUHDVHLQ&2HTXDOWRSHUSSP&2 
KUPD[ 7KHVWXG\SURYLGHVGDWDIRUWKHIROORZLQJIXQFWLRQ

,QFUHDVHLQDQQXDODGPLVVLRQVIRU&+) SHUSHUPJP &2 KUPHDQ




$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
,VFKDHPLF+HDUW'LVHDVH ,+' DQG&2

7KHUHZDVDOVRDVLJQLILFDQWDVVRFLDWLRQRI&2ZLWKDGPLVVLRQVIRULVFKDHPLFKHDUWGLVHDVH
+RZHYHURQDGGLQJ30WRWKHPRGHOWKHDVVRFLDWLRQZLWK&2EHFDPHQRQVLJQLILFDQW

 2WKHUKRVSLWDODGPLVVLRQVVWXGLHVHVSHFLDOO\3RORQLHFNLHWDO

7KHVH ILQGLQJV RI D UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ GDLO\ &2 DQG KRVSLWDO DGPLVVLRQV IRU FDUGLR
UHODWHG FDXVHV DUH VXSSRUWHG E\ WZR UHFHQW SDSHUV IURP &DQDGD %XUQHWW HW DO D
E 7KH&2HIIHFWLQWKHODWWHUZDVZHDNSRVVLEO\EHFDXVHVXPPHUWLPHSROOXWLRQRQO\
ZDVH[DPLQHG,Q%XUQHWWHWDO D KRZHYHU&2ZDVWKHSROOXWDQWPRVWVWURQJO\DQG
FRQVLVWHQWO\ UHODWHG WR KRVSLWDO DGPLVVLRQV IRU FRQJHVWLYH KHDUW IDLOXUH LQ WKH HOGHUO\
0RUHRYHUWKH&2HIIHFWZDVLQVHQVLWLYHWRDGMXVWPHQWIRURWKHUSROOXWDQWV

3RORQLHFNL HW DO   H[DPLQHG KRVSLWDO DGPLVVLRQV IRU YDULRXV FDUGLRYDVFXODU FDXVHV LQ
UHODWLRQ WR FRQFHQWUDWLRQV RI VHYHUDO DLU SROOXWDQWV RQ WKH SUHYLRXV GD\  7KH &2
PHDVXUHPHQWVZHUHPHDQVRIKUPHDVXUHPHQWVH[SUHVVHGLQXQLWVRISSP,QVLQJOH
SROOXWDQW PRGHOV GDLO\ &2 ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHODWHG WR KRVSLWDO DGPLVVLRQV IRU DFXWH
P\RFDUGLDOLQIDUFWLRQDQGRWKHUFLUFXODWRU\GLVHDVHVDVZHOODVWRWKHPRUHJOREDOHQGSRLQW
RIFRPELQHGFLUFXODWRU\GLVHDVHV7KHUHVXOWZDVKRZHYHUQRWFRQILUPHGDIWHUDGMXVWPHQW
IRU EODFN VPRNH RU 62  RU 12  LQ DQDO\VHV RI DFXWH P\RFDUGLDO LQIDUFWLRQ XVLQJ WZR
 

SROOXWDQWPRGHOV

,WLVGLIILFXOWWREHFRQILGHQWWKHUHIRUHRIDQHIIHFWRI&2DVVXFKDQGZKDWLIDQ\KRVSLWDO
DGPLVVLRQV HQGSRLQW VKRXOG EH XVHG  7KHUH LV D FDVH IRU XVLQJ WKH JOREDO HQGSRLQW RI
FRPELQHGFLUFXODWRU\GLVHDVHVIURPWKHVWXG\RI3RORQLHFNLHWDO  WKRXJKDWWKHULVN
RI RYHUHVWLPDWLQJ WKH HIIHFWV  7KH UHOHYDQW UHODWLYH ULVN ZDV HTXLYDOHQW WR DQ LQFUHDVH RI
SHUPJP GDLO\&2


 &RPPHQWRQFRQVLVWHQF\RIUHSRUWHG&2HIIHFWV

7KHUHLVDSRVVLEOHSUREOHPKHUHZLWKFRQVLVWHQF\LQWKHDYDLODEOHHYLGHQFH,VFKDHPLF
KHDUWGLVHDVHFRQFHUQVDUHGXFHGVXSSO\RIEORRGWRWKHKHDUW*LYHQWKDWDUHGXFHGVXSSO\
RIEORRGFOHDUO\OHDGVWRDUHGXFHGVXSSO\RIR[\JHQWKHUHDUHJRRGUHDVRQVIRUEHOLHYLQJ
WKDWLQFUHDVHGOHYHOVRI&2ZRXOGFDXVHDKLJKHULQFLGHQFHRIKRVSLWDOLVDWLRQIRULVFKDHPLF
KHDUWGLVHDVH$OVRLILWLVDFFHSWHGWKDW&2LVOLQNHGWRKHDUWGLVHDVHDOLQNWRWKH
DGYDQFHPHQWRIPRUWDOLW\LVQRWVXUSULVLQJ

,WLVDOVRQHFHVVDU\WRDVNZKRH[DFWO\LVDWULVNIURPDPELHQW&2H[SRVXUHDQGWKHUROHRI
DPELHQW&2H[SRVXUHLQKHDUWGLVHDVHRUGHDWK,WDSSHDUVSUREDEOHWKDWWKHPDMRUFDXVHRI
WKHVHSUREOHPVLVQRWH[SRVXUHWRDPELHQW&2OHYHOVEXWH[SRVXUHWR&2WKURXJK
VPRNLQJRUIDXOW\GRPHVWLFDSSOLDQFHVRUWKHKHDOWKHIIHFWVRISRRUGLHWRURIRWKHUIDFWRUV
XQUHODWHGWRDLUTXDOLW\8QGHUWKHVHFLUFXPVWDQFHVWKHHIIHFWRIH[SRVXUHWRDPELHQW&2
PD\VLPSO\EHWRDGYDQFHKRVSLWDODGPLVVLRQVRUGHDWKE\DIHZGD\V,IWKLVLVWKHFDVHLW
ZRXOGDSSHDUWKDWWKHUHLVDZLGHUYDULHW\RISROLF\RSWLRQVDYDLODEOHWRUHDFKWKHVDPHJRDO
WKDQMXVWWKRVHPHDVXUHVZKLFKDGGUHVV&2LQWKHDPELHQWDLU


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 %(1=(1(
 (IIHFWVRI%HQ]HQH

(IIHFWVRIEHQ]HQHKDYHEHHQGHWHFWHGIURPH[SHULPHQWDOH[SRVXUHVRIDQLPDOV SDUWLFXODUO\
PLFHDQGUDWV DQGRFFXSDWLRQDOH[SRVXUHVRISHRSOH$YDLODEOHGDWDDUHVXPPDULVHGLQ
7DEOHVWR$JORVVDU\LVSURYLGHGLQ$SSHQGL[IRUH[SODQDWLRQRIWKHPHGLFDOWHUPV
XVHG7KHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIVRPHRIWKHVHGDWDSDUWLFXODUO\WKHKXPDQOHXNDHPLDVWXGLHV
SURPSWVPXFKGHEDWH0XFKFRQFHUQUHODWHVWRWKHH[WUDSRODWLRQRIGDWDIURPKLJK
RFFXSDWLRQDOOHYHOVWRPXFKORZHUDPELHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV )LJXUH ,IWKHHIIHFWVRI
EHQ]HQHDUHLQDQ\ZD\UHFHSWRUPHGLDWHGLWPLJKWEHDQWLFLSDWHGWKDWWKUHVKROGVH[LVWWKDW
ZRXOGUXOHRXWDQ\HIIHFW(TXDOO\KRZHYHUWKHGRPLQDQFHRIDGXOWOHXNDHPLDVLQWKH
REVHUYDWLRQVPD\EHDQDUWHIDFWUHVXOWLQJIURPWKHXVHRIRFFXSDWLRQDOH[SRVXUHGDWD

E xposure to
am bient air
Exposure duration

O ccupational exposures

B enzene concentration

)LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLRQRIWKHGLIIHUHQWFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIH[SRVXUHVWREHQ]HQHLQWKH
RFFXSDWLRQDOVLWXDWLRQVXVHGIRUGHULYDWLRQRIULVNIDFWRUVZLWKH[SRVXUHIURPWKHDPELHQW
DLU

*HQQDUWHWDO  RQEHKDOIRI&21&$:(OLVWHGSXEOLVKHGOLIHWLPHULVNHVWLPDWHVIRU


H[SRVXUHWREHQ]HQHDWDFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIµJP LQDLU7KHVHYDULHGZLGHO\IURP[


 WR[ 0RVWHVWLPDWHVZHUHRIWKHRUGHU WKRXJKWKH&21&$:(UHYLHZHUV


  

TXRWHGUHDVRQVIRUSUHIHUULQJHVWLPDWHVDWWKHORZHUHQGRIWKHUDQJH7KHDGKRFJURXS
FRQYHQHGE\WKH:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ%HQ]HQHDJUHHGWRDUDQJHIRUULVNRI SHUµJP  

WR[ SHUµJP 'LYLGLQJE\ WDNHQKHUHDVWKHDYHUDJHOLIHWLPH SURYLGHVDQDQQXDO


 

ULVNRI[ WR[ SHUµJP 7KLVDOORZVDILUVWHVWLPDWHRIWKHHIIHFWVRI


  

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
H[SRVXUHRIWKHSRSXODWLRQWREHQ]HQHLQWKHDPELHQWDLU)RUVLPSOLFLW\WKUHHOHYHOVRI
EHQ]HQH DQGµJP DUHDVVXPHGWRZKLFKWKHSRSXODWLRQRIWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQ


DUHH[SRVHGIRUDOLIHWLPH7KLVUDQJHRIH[SRVXUHVLVLQWHQWLRQDOO\EURDGWRHQVXUHWKDWLW
LQFOXGHVWKHPHDQ(XURSHDQH[SRVXUHWREHQ]HQHLQDPELHQWDLU7KHDVVRFLDWHGLQFLGHQFH
RIFDQFHU WRWDOFDVHVIRUWKH(8HYHU\\HDU LVVKRZQLQ7DEOH

7DEOH)LUVWHVWLPDWHVRIWKHUDQJHIRUWKHLQFLGHQFHRIFDQFHUVDFURVVWKHZKROHRIWKH
(XURSHDQ8QLRQLQOLQNHGWRH[SRVXUHWREHQ]HQHLQWKHDPELHQWDLU
$QQXDOFDVHVDWOLIHWLPHULVNIDFWRUVRI
0HDQEHQ]HQHH[SRVXUHµJP 
µJP µJP
  
  
  

7DEOH5HVXOWVRIDQLPDOH[SRVXUHVWXGLHVIRUEHQ]HQH

(IIHFW $QLPDO ([SRVXUH 'XUDWLRQRI 5HIHUHQFH


/HYHOV ([SRVXUH
'HFUHDVHVLQEORRG PLFH PJP RU

RQHWRVHYHUDO :+2
FHOOFRXQWV KLJKHU ZHHNV 

PJP
ZHHNV
/HXFRSKHQLD UDWV PJP 
ZHHNV :+2
RYHUPJP 
DQGZHHNV 
5HGXFHG PLFH PJP
ZHHN :+2
HIIHFWLYHQHVVRI% 
FHOOO\PSKRF\WHV
'HSUHVVHG7FHOO PLFH PJP
ZHHN :+2
UHVSRQVH 
5HGXFHGUHVLVWDQFH PLFH PJP 
GD\V 5RVHQWKDO
WRLQIHFWLRQE\ DQG6Q\GHU
/LVWHULDPRQRF\WRJHQHV 
,QFUHDVHGWXPRXU PLFH PJP 
GD\V 5RVHQWKDO
LQFLGHQFHIURP DQG6Q\GHU
LQMHFWHGSRO\RPD 
YLUXVLQGXFHG
WXPRXUFHOOV
+DHPDWRSRHWLF PLFH PJP 
GD\VRI :+2
FKDQJHV JHVWDWLRQ 
'1$GDPDJHLQ PLFH PJP 
3ODSSHUWHWDO
ERQHPDUURZ 
SHULSKHUDOEORRG


$($7HFKQRORJ\
FHOOVDQGOLYHU
6LVWHUFKURPDWLG UDWV PJP 
(UH[VRQHWDO
H[FKDQJHVLQ O\PSKRF\WHV 
SHULSKHUDO
O\PSKRF\WHVDQG PJP 

PLFURQXFOHLLQERQH PLFURQXFOHL
PDUURZ
+HPDWRSRHWLF PLFH PJP 
OLIHWLPH 6Q\GHUHWDO
QHRSODVPV 
LQFOXGLQJWK\PLF
O\PSKRPD
0DOLJQDQW PLFH PJP 
ZHHNV )DUULVHWDO
O\PSKRPDV 
SUHSXWLDOJODQG
FDQFHUDQGOXQJ
WXPRXUV
6RXUFH:+2SDSHURQ%HQ]HQH

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
7DEOH2EVHUYHGKHDOWKHIIHFWVRIKXPDQH[SRVXUHWREHQ]HQH
(IIHFW ([SRVXUH 5HIHUHQFH
/RZHUHGZKLWHDQGUHG 2FFXSDWLRQDODERYH &RG\HWDO 
EORRGFHOOFRXQWV PJP 

6WUXFWXUDODQGQXPHULFDO PJP RUKLJKHU



:+2  0DMRUHWDO
FKURPRVRPHGHIHFWV RUFKURQLFH[SRVXUHWR  .DUDFLFHWDO 
PJP 

,QFUHDVHGULVNRIDFXWH 2FFXSDWLRQDO YDULRXV 5LQVNH\HWDO  2WWHWDO


QRQO\PSKRF\WLF OHYHOV  %RQGHWDO  
OHXNDHPLD $1// :RQJ 

7DEOH/HXNDHPLDGHDWKVLQZRUNHUVRFFXSDWLRQDOO\H[SRVHGWREHQ]HQH
6WXG\ 1RRI 1RRI ([SRVXUH 5HIHUHQFH
SHRSOH GHDWKV (VWLPDWHV SSE
H[SRVHG \HDUV XQOHVV
RWKHUZLVH
LQGLFDWHG
*RRG\HDU3OLRILOP3ODQW PHQ   5LQVN\HWDO
ZRUNHUVHPSOR\HGIRUDWOHDVW 
RQHGD\LQDGHSDUWPHQW  
ZKHUHEHQ]HQHZDVXVHG
GXULQJ'HDWKV  
RFFXUULQJDIWHUFRXQWHG
 !
&KHPLFDOZRUNHUVH[SRVHGWR PHQ   (VWLPDWHV :RQJ
EHQ]HQHIRUDWOHDVWPRQWKV IRU 
\HDU
EHWZHHQDQG RQO\   HTXLYDOHQW
WKHFXPXODWLYHH[SRVXUH OHYHOVRI
JURXSLVLQFOXGHG  ! H[SRVXUH

'RZ&KHPLFDOZRUNHUV PHQ   (VWLPDWHV %RQGHWDO


H[SRVHGLQRUJDQLFDQGUHVLQ  IRU 
LQGLYLGXDO
V\QWKHVLV H[FOXGHV  FDVHV
FRQIRXQGLQJH[SRVXUHV
&RNH2YHQDQGRWKHU&RDO PHQ  (VWLPDWHGH[SRVXUH +XUOH\HWDO
3URGXFWVZRUNHUV   FRQFHQWUDWLRQV 
1DWLRQDO6PRNHOHVV)XHOV ZRPHQ SSE
DQG%ULWLVK6WHHO&RUSRUDWLRQ
&KLQHVH)DFWRU\:RUNHUV   &RQFHQWUDWLRQV <LQHWDO
H[SRVHGWREHQ]HQHLQ PHQ  ZKHUHOHXNDHPLDV 
SDLQWLQJVKRHPDNLQJUXEEHU  RFFXUUHG 
V\QWKHVLVOHDWKHUDQG ZRPHQ SSE
DGKHVLYHDQGRUJDQLFV\QWKHVLV
IDFWRULHV


$($7HFKQRORJ\
1RGDWDIRUGXUDWLRQRIH[SRVXUHJLYHQ6RXUFH(3$46  %HQ]HQH SSE\HDUVZRXOGEH
HTXLYDOHQWWRD\HDUH[SRVXUHWRSSERUD\HDUH[SRVXUHWRSSE

 $'',7,21$/&216(48(1&(62)$%$7(0(170($685(6)25&2
$1'%(1=(1(
$EDWHPHQWRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHZLOOFKDQJHWKHPDJQLWXGHRIRWKHUEXUGHQV VXFKDVULVNRI
DFFLGHQWVUHOHDVHRISROOXWDQWVRWKHUWKDQ&2DQGEHQ]HQH DQGWKHLUDVVRFLDWHGLPSDFWV
6RPHH[DPSOHVDUHOLVWHGLQ7DEOH0RVWRIWKHHIIHFWVOLVWHGLQWKHWDEOHZLOOOHDGWR
DGGLWLRQDOEHQHILWVWKRXJKWKHUHLVDSRVVLELOLW\WKDWVRPHZLOOQRW  

7DEOH$GGLWLRQDOFRQVHTXHQFHVIROORZLQJIURPWKHDEDWHPHQWRI&2DQGEHQ]HQH
7KHOLVWSURYLGHVH[DPSOHVRIWKHHIIHFWVFRQFHUQHG,WLVQRWLQWHQGHGWREHH[KDXVWLYH

$EDWHPHQWPHDVXUH %XUGHQDIIHFWHG ,PSDFWVDIIHFWHG


5RDGSULFLQJWUDIILFFDOPLQJ (PLVVLRQRIDOOWUDQVSRUW (IIHFWVRQKHDOWKPDWHULDOV
SXEOLFWUDQVSRUWVXEVLGLHV SROOXWDQWV 62 12 30 
 [ 
HFRORJ\
HWF 92&V&2 IRUPDWLRQRI


R]RQHDQGRWKHUVHFRQGDU\
SROOXWDQWV
5LVNRIDFFLGHQWV 'HDWKDQGLQMXU\
PDWHULDOGDPDJH
&RQJHVWLRQ 7UDYHOWLPH
1RLVH $PHQLW\
(PLVVLRQFRQVWUDLQWV (PLVVLRQRIDOOWUDQVSRUW (IIHFWVRQKHDOWKPDWHULDOV
SROOXWDQWV 62 12 30 
 [ 
HFRORJ\
92&V&2 HWF


0XFKWKRXJKWZDVJLYHQGXULQJWKHVWXG\DVWRZKHWKHUWKHVHHIIHFWVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHG
LQWKHDQDO\VLV,WZDVFRQFOXGHGWKDWWKH\VKRXOGQRWJLYHQWKDWWKHDQDO\VLVLVFRQGXFWHG
H[SUHVVO\LQUHODWLRQWR&2DQGEHQ]HQH,QFOXVLRQRIEHQHILWVIURPUHGXFLQJ3062 DQG 

12  ZKLFKRXUVFHQDULRVDVVXPHPHHWOLPLWVIURPWKHRXWVHW ZRXOGDSSHDUWRFRQWUDGLFW


WKH&RPPLVVLRQ·VSURFHVVIRUFRQWUROOLQJWKRVHSROOXWDQWV,QDQ\FDVHWKHXVHRI
OHJLVODWLRQRQEHQ]HQHRU&2IRUFRQWURORIDKRVWRIRWKHUWUDIILFUHODWHGEXUGHQVVHHPVD
YHU\EOXQWLQVWUXPHQWDQGRQHWKDWLVXQOLNHO\WROHDGWRWKHLGHQWLILFDWLRQRIDQRSWLPDO
SDFNDJHIRUGHDOLQJZLWKWKHVHRWKHUEXUGHQV

2QWKLVLVVXHLWZDVFRQFOXGHGWKDWLWZRXOGEHEHWWHULQWKHIXWXUHWRKDYHDQDOOLQFOXVLYH
DQDO\VLVWKDWVHHNVWRVWULNHDEDODQFHEHWZHHQWKHFRQWURORIDOOSROOXWDQWVWKDWFRPHXQGHU
WKH)UDPHZRUN'LUHFWLYHRQ$PELHQW$LU4XDOLW\$UHFHQWSURSRVDOE\WKH&RPPLVVLRQ
IRUDSURJUDPPHHQWLWOHG&OHDQ$LU)RU(XURSH &$)( VHHNVWRGRWKLVDQGPRUH
LQWHJUDWLQJDOVR'LUHFWLYHVRQHPLVVLRQV
 

)RUH[DPSOHDUHGXFWLRQLQFRQJHVWLRQIURPURDGSULFLQJZRXOGSUREDEO\OHDGWRDQLQFUHDVHLQWUDIILFVSHHG
7KLVFRXOGDGYHUVHO\LQIOXHQFHDFFLGHQWUDWHVDQGWKHFKDQFHRIVHULRXVLQMXU\RUIDWDOLWLHVLQDFFLGHQWV

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
 (67,0$7,1*(;32685(72&2$1'%(1=(1(
$VVHVVPHQWRI&2HIIHFWVFDQEHPDGHDJDLQVWXUEDQEDFNJURXQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDVWKLVLV
WKHPHWULFXVHGLQWKHH[SRVXUHUHVSRQVHUHODWLRQVKLSVDGRSWHGIURPWKHHSLGHPLRORJLFDO
OLWHUDWXUH7KLVLPSOLFLWO\DFFRXQWVIRUSHRSOHPRYLQJEHWZHHQDUHDVRIGLIIHUHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ)RUEHQ]HQHLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRGHULYHVRPHHVWLPDWHRIH[SRVXUHLQRUGHUWR
XVHWKHIXQFWLRQVGHULYHGIURPWKHZRUNSODFHH[SRVXUHGDWD(VWLPDWHGGDLO\LQWDNHRI
EHQ]HQHXQGHUGLIIHUHQWFRQGLWLRQVLVVKRZQLQ7DEOH (3$46 7KH(3$46
DQDO\VLVZDVFDUULHGRXWXVLQJPHWKRGVDQGGDWDIURP:+27KHDVVHVVPHQWRILQWDNH
IURPDPELHQWDLUDVVXPHGDFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIµJP DVDUXUDOGDLO\PHDQDQGµJP
 

DVWKHXUEDQPD[LPXPGDLO\PHDQEDVHGRQPHDVXUHPHQWVLQ&HQWUDO/RQGRQ7KHXUEDQ
OHYHOLVYHU\KLJKLQWKHFRQWH[WRIWKLVVWXG\DVUHIHUHQFHWRWKHUHVXOWVLQ&KDSWHUVDQG
ZLOOGHPRQVWUDWH

7DEOH(VWLPDWHGGDLO\LQWDNHRIEHQ]HQH IURP(3$46

6RXUFH µJLQWDNH
$PELHQWDLU UXUDO 
8UEDQ 
&LJDUHWWHVPRNH GD\ 
GD\ 
)RRG 
:DWHU 

7RWDO 0LQLPXP 


0D[LPXP 

7KLVWDEOHVXJJHVWVWKDWPRVWYDULDWLRQLVOLQNHGWRWKHSODFHVZKHUHSHRSOHOLYHDQGZRUN
DQGWRZKHWKHUWKH\VPRNHRUQRW)XUWKHUGDWDRQH[SRVXUHVDUHJLYHQLQ7DEOHWDNHQ
IURP*HQQDUWHWDO  7KLVIXUWKHUKLJKOLJKWVWKHSUREOHPVRIH[WUDSRODWLRQRIEHQ]HQH
GDWDIRUGHULYDWLRQRIH[SRVXUHUHVSRQVHUHODWLRQVKLSV

7DEOH7\SLFDOHVWLPDWHVRIGDLO\DEVRUEHGGRVHIRUVSHFLILFVLWXDWLRQV H[FOXGLQJGLHW 

6SHFLILF ([SRVXUH µJP 7LPH KRXUV $OYHRODU 5HWHQWLRQ $EVRUEHG


6LWXDWLRQ YHQWLODWLRQ  GRVH µJGD\
UDWH PKU
2FFXSDWLRQDO     
H[SRVXUH
6PRNLQJ µJFLJDUHWWH FLJGD\   
3DVVLYH     
VPRNLQJ
'ULYLQJ     
5HIXHOOLQJ  PLQZHHN   
2XWGRRU     
XUEDQ


$($7HFKQRORJ\
2XWGRRU     
UXUDO
,QGRRUQRQ     
VPRNLQJ

,QDGGLWLRQWRWKLV2WWDQG5RJHUVVXJJHVWHGWKDWFLJDUHWWHVDQGFRQVXPHUSURGXFWVPD\
PDNHDPXFKODUJHUFRQWULEXWLRQWREHQ]HQHH[SRVXUHLQWKHJHQHUDOSXEOLFWKDQGRVRXUFHV
VXFKDVYHKLFOHH[KDXVWIXPHVDQGLQGXVWU\7KH\TXRWH:DOODFH  ZKRHVWLPDWHGWKDW
DERXWRIWRWDOH[SRVXUHWRWKH86SRSXODWLRQFRPHVIURPVPRNLQJRUEUHDWKLQJVPRNH
H[KDOHGE\RWKHUVSHUFHQWIURPLQKDOLQJJDVROLQHIXPHVRUXVLQJFRPPRQFRQVXPHU
SURGXFWV JOXHVHWF DQGIURPRWKHUKRPHVRXUFHVVXFKDVSDLQWVDQGJDVROLQHVWRUHG
LQEDVHPHQWVRUJDUDJHV2QO\RIWKHWRWDOH[SRVXUHLVHVWLPDWHGWRFRPHIURP
LQGXVWULDOVRXUFHV7KLVFRQWUDVWVZLWKWKHEUHDNGRZQRIEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQVRXUFHVIRUWKH
86DVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH

)LJXUH US sources of benzene emissions and associated exposure.

Sources of
Exposure

Cigarettes
Individual activities
Industry
Automobile exhaust

Sources of
Emissions

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

,WLVXQFOHDUZKHWKHUWKHVHILQGLQJVZRXOGEHIXOO\DSSOLFDEOHWR(XURSHDVWKHUHDUHOLNHO\
WREHGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHFRPSRVLWLRQRIFRQVXPHUSURGXFWV86FRQVXPHUSURGXFWVWKDW
FRQWDLQEHQ]HQHDUHVDLGWRLQFOXGHJOXHVDGKHVLYHVKRXVHKROGFOHDQLQJSURGXFWVSDLQW
VWULSSHUVDQGVRPHDUWVXSSOLHV+RZHYHUDSUHOLPLQDU\LQYHVWLJDWLRQRIVXFKSURGXFWVLQ
WKH8.KDVIRXQGQRHYLGHQFHRIWKHSUHVHQFHRIEHQ]HQH'XOX[3RO\FHOODQG5RQVHDO
PDMRUPDQXIDFWXUHUVRISDLQWVJOXHVDQGYDUQLVKHVKDYHDOOFRQILUPHGWKDWWKHLUSURGXFWV
FRQWDLQQREHQ]HQH)LJXUHGRHVKRZHYHUGHPRQVWUDWHWKDWWKHIXOOSUREOHPRIEHQ]HQH
H[SRVXUHLVUHODWHGWRDQXPEHURIRWKHUVRXUFHVQRWFRQVLGHUHGZLWKLQWKLVVWXG\EHFDXVHLW
ZRXOGEHLQDSSURSULDWHWRGHDOZLWKWKHPWKURXJKOHJLVODWLRQRQDPELHQWDLUTXDOLW\7KH
IDFWWKDWWKHUHDUHRWKHULPSRUWDQWVRXUFHVRIH[SRVXUHGRHVQRWRIFRXUVHLQLWVHOIQHJDWH
WKHQHHGIRUOHJLVODWLRQRQEHQ]HQHLQWKHDPELHQWDLU

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
7KHULVNIDFWRUVXVHGLQWKHSUHVHQWVVWXG\DUHOLQHDUH[WUDSRODWHGEDFNWR]HUR1RQ
OLQHDULWLHVIRUH[DPSOHWKURXJKWKHH[LVWHQFHRIWKUHVKROGVZRXOGOHDGWRORZHUEHQHILWV
IURPPHDVXUHVWRUHGXFHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIEHQ]HQH$VVXPLQJWKHDVVXPSWLRQRIOLQHDULW\
WREHFRUUHFWWKHUHLVQRQHHGWRDFFRXQWIRUQRQDPELHQWVRXUFHVRIEHQ]HQH IRUH[DPSOH
WKURXJKVPRNLQJZKLFKFRXOGWDNHVRPHPHPEHUVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQDERYHDWKUHVKROG
HYHQZLWKQRFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIH[SRVXUHWKURXJKWKHDPELHQWDLU +RZHYHUJLYHQWKH
QDWXUHRIWKHIXQFWLRQVLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRFRQVLGHUWKHZD\LQZKLFKGRVHIURPWKHDPELHQW
DLULVEXLOWXSDVSHRSOHJRDERXWWKHLUQRUPDODFWLYLWLHV

7KHSROOXWLRQVFHQDULRVXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\SURYLGHHVWLPDWHVRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHXUEDQ
EDFNJURXQGDQGLQSHDNORFDWLRQVZLWKLQHDFKJULGFHOO$UDQJHFDQFOHDUO\EHJHQHUDWHG
DVVXPLQJWKDWHYHU\RQHVSHQGVDOORIWKHLUWLPHLQRQHORFDWLRQRUWKHRWKHU$FWXDO
H[SRVXUHVKRXOGOLHVRPHZKHUHEHWZHHQWKHVHWZRSRVLWLRQV,QRUGHUWRHVWLPDWHZKHUHLW
LVQHFHVVDU\WRGHILQHWKHDFWLYLWLHVWKDWWKHSRSXODWLRQXQGHUWDNH7KHUHLVQRGHILQLWLYH
JXLGDQFHRQWKLVWKRXJKVRPHGDWDDUHDYDLODEOH7DEOHSURYLGHVLQIRUPDWLRQFROOHFWHG
LQ3DULV 6RFLpWpIUDQFDLVHGHVDQWpSXEOLTXH 

7DEOH'LVWULEXWLRQRISRSXODWLRQH[SRVXUHWREHQ]HQHLQ3DULV IURP6RFLpWp
IUDQFDLVHGHVDQWpSXEOLTXH 

6LWH 'DLO\H[SRVXUH %HQ]HQHOHYHOµJP


8QGHUJURXQGSDUNV K 
5RDGWXQQHOV VHYHUDOPLQXWHV 
&\FOHURXWHV WRK 
'ULYHUV WRK 
%XVSDVVHQJHUV WRK 
0HWURXVHUV WRK 
3HGHVWULDQV WRK 
(PSOR\HGSHRSOH WRK 
3ULPDU\VFKRROV WRK 
3HRSOHQRWLQHPSOR\PHQW WRK 

$GGLWLRQDOGDWDZHUHFROOHFWHGLQ'HQPDUN 5DDVFKRX1LHOVHQHWDOLQSUHVV LQDVWXG\


LQYHVWLJDWLQJWKHH[SRVXUHRIFKLOGUHQWREHQ]HQHWROXHQHDQG[\OHQH0HDVXUHPHQWVDWWKH
IURQWGRRUVRIKRXVHVSURYLGHGKLJKO\VLJQLILFDQWUHODWLRQVKLSVZLWKEHQ]HQHH[SRVXUH7KH
VORSHEHWZHHQH[SRVXUHDQGIURQWGRRUFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQ&RSHQKDJHQZDVDQGLQUXUDO
DUHDV$FWLYLWLHVWKDWZHUHSDUWLFXODUO\UHODWHGWREHQ]HQHH[SRVXUHZHUHULGLQJLQD
FDUDQGDQ\WKLQJOHDGLQJWRH[SRVXUHWRJDVROLQHYDSRXUV,QWHUHVWLQJO\SDVVLYHVPRNLQJ
GLGQRWKDYHDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQH[SRVXUHDSSDUHQWO\FRQILUPLQJVRPHSUHYLRXVUHVXOWV

)RUWKHSXUSRVHVRIWKLVVWXG\WKHIROORZLQJPRGHOIRUH[SRVXUHZDVGHYHORSHG 7DEOH
 ,WKDVEHHQNHSWUHDVRQDEO\VLPSOH,WLVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHUHLVDWRUHODWLRQVKLS
EHWZHHQRXWGRRUDLUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDQGWKHOHYHORIEHQ]HQHDWWULEXWDEOHWRRXWGRRUDLU
ZLWKLQEXLOGLQJV7KHGDWDJLYHQDUHODUJHO\WKHDXWKRUV·RZQHVWLPDWHVEXLOGLQJRQWKH
RWKHUGDWDSUHVHQWHGKHUH7KHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRILQGRRUH[SRVXUHLVSUREOHPDWLFSDUWO\


$($7HFKQRORJ\
EHFDXVHWKHOHJLVODWLRQRQDLUTXDOLW\GRHVQRWDSSO\LQGRRUVRULQWKHZRUNSODFH+RZHYHU
JLYHQWKHREYLRXVOLQNEHWZHHQRXWGRRUDQGLQGRRUDLUTXDOLW\LWLVFOHDUO\UHOHYDQWWR
LQFOXGHWKHHIIHFWVRIH[SRVXUHLQGRRUVIURPH[WHUQDOVRXUFHV

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
7DEOH3UHOLPLQDU\HVWLPDWHVRIWKHWLPHVSHQWE\GLIIHUHQWJURXSVLQGLIIHUHQW
ORFDWLRQV5HVXOWVDSSO\WRWKHXUEDQSRSXODWLRQRQO\1RDFFRXQWLVWDNHQLQWKHDQDO\VLV
RIWKRVHZKRFRPPXWHLQWRFLWLHVIURPRXWVLGHWKHPRGHOOHGGRPDLQIRUHDFKFLW\

*URXS RI /RFDWLRQ /HYHO KRXUVGD\VSHQW


SRSXODWLR LQHDFKORFDWLRQ
Q
,QIDQWV   $WKRPH %DFNJURXQG 
\HDUV ,QWUDQVLW 3HDN 
2XWGRRUV %DFNJURXQG 
2XWGRRUV HJ 3HDN 
VKRSV
6FKRROFKLOGUH  $WKRPH %DFNJURXQG 
Q
,QWUDQVLW 3HDN 
$WVFKRRO %DFNJURXQG 
$WVFKRRO 3HDN 
2XWGRRUV 3HDN 
7KRVH  $WKRPH %DFNJURXQG 
ZRUNLQJ
LQGRRUV ,QWUDQVLW 3HDN 
$WZRUN %DFNJURXQG 
2XWGRRUV 3HDN 
7KRVH  $WKRPH %DFNJURXQG 
ZRUNLQJ
RXWGRRUV ,QWUDQVLW 3HDN 
$WZRUN 3HDN 
2XWGRRUV 3HDN 
$GXOWVQRWLQ  $WKRPH %DFNJURXQG 
HPSOR\PHQW ,QWUDQVLW 3HDN 
2XWGRRUV 3HDN 
2XWGRRUV %DFNJURXQG 
2YHUDOO  3HDN  
%DFNJURXQG  

$YDLODEOHGDWDIURPWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQLQGRRURXWGRRUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVZHUHIRXQGWREH
FRQIOLFWLQJ0RUHUREXVW WKRXJKSUHOLPLQDU\ GDWDZHUHKRZHYHUPDGHDYDLODEOHWRWKH
VWXG\WHDPIURPSDUWLFLSDQWVLQWKH0DFEHWKSURMHFW 7DEOH&RFKHRSHUVRQDO
FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ZKLFKLVPRQLWRULQJDWPRVSKHULFFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIEHQ]HQHDQG
H[SRVXUHVLQ(XURSHDQWRZQVDQGKRPHV5HVXOWVDUHVWLOOFRQIOLFWLQJWKHWUHQGLQ$WKHQV
LVRSSRVLWHWRWKDWHOVHZKHUH2YHUDOOWKHUDWLRRIXUEDQEDFNJURXQGWRWRWDOH[SRVXUHLV
ZLWKLQWKHUDQJHWR2QDYHUDJHWKLVVXJJHVWVWKDWRXUPRGHOIURP7DEOHZRXOG
XQGHUHVWLPDWHH[SRVXUHE\ EDVHGRQWLPHVSHQWLQSHDNFRQFHQWUDWLRQORFDWLRQV
FRPELQHGZLWKDFHQWUDOHVWLPDWHRIWKHUDWLREHWZHHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQXUEDQEDFNJURXQG


$($7HFKQRORJ\
DQGKRWVSRWORFDWLRQVJLYHQLQ&KDSWHU +RZHYHUWKLVLVZHOOZLWKLQWKHUDQJH
VXJJHVWHGE\WKH0DFEHWKGDWD

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
7DEOH&RPSDULVRQVRIXUEDQEDFNJURXQGLQGRRUOHYHOVDQGH[SRVXUHV SUHOLPLQDU\
UHVXOWVIURPWKH0DFEHWKSURJUDPPH 

/RFDWLRQ ,QGRRUOHYHO 8UEDQ ([SRVXUHµJP ([SRVXUHXUEDQ


µJP EDFNJURXQG EDFNJURXQGUDWLR
µJP
&RSHQKDJHQ    
$QWZHUS    
5RXHQ    
3DGRYD    
0XUFLD    
$WKHQV    

2QHSRVVLEOHUHDVRQIRUXQGHUHVWLPDWLRQE\RXUPRGHOLVWKDWLWGRHVQRWWDNHDFFRXQWRI
YDULDWLRQLQHPLVVLRQVRYHUWKHGD\7KLVLVLOOXVWUDWHGE\GDWDWDNHQIURPWKH$XWR2LODLU
TXDOLW\UHSRUW )LJXUH 7KHDQQXDODYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQ¶SHDN·ORFDWLRQV EXV\
VWUHHWVHWF VHHPVOLNHO\WRXQGHUHVWLPDWHDFWXDOH[SRVXUHLQWKHSHULRGVRIWLPHWKDWPRVW
SHRSOHVSHQGLQWKHVHORFDWLRQV'DWDXVHGWRJHQHUDWH)LJXUHVXJJHVWWKDWHPLVVLRQVLQ
UXVKKRXUDUHURXJKO\KLJKHUWKDQWKHGDLO\DYHUDJH$SSOLFDWLRQRIWKHH[SRVXUHPRGHO
DWWKHPRPHQWHVVHQWLDOO\DVVXPHVWKDWSHRSOHDUHFRQILQHGWRWKHJULGFHOOLQZKLFKWKH\
OLYH7KLVVHHPVUHDVRQDEOHIRULQIDQWVVFKRROFKLOGUHQDQGDGXOWVZKRDUHQRWLQ
HPSOR\PHQWEXWQRWRQWKHZKROHIRUHPSOR\HGDGXOWVZKRZLOOWHQGWRPLJUDWHWRZDUGV
WKHFLW\FHQWUHIRUZRUNZKLFKZLOOWHQGWRLQFUHDVHWKHLUH[SRVXUH2YHUDOOWKHVHIDFWRUV
ZRXOGVXJJHVWWKDWWKHSURSRVHGH[SRVXUHPRGHOPLJKWWHQGWRXQGHUHVWLPDWHH[SRVXUHV
)UDFWLRQRIGDLO\HPLVVLRQV

0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
Athens
0.02
0.01 Cologne, London
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
7LPHRIGD\

)LJXUH)UDFWLRQRIHPLVVLRQVIURPPRELOHVRXUFHVLQHDFKKRXURIWKHGD\LQ$WKHQV
&RORJQHDQG/RQGRQ'DWDDUHWDNHQIURPWKH$XWR2LODLUTXDOLW\UHSRUW (XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQ'*;, 


$($7HFKQRORJ\
$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
 5HGXFWLRQRI&2DQG%HQ]HQH(PLVVLRQV
IURP0RELOH6RXUFHV

 29(59,(:
,WZDVQRWHGDERYHWKDWWKHGRPLQDQWVRXUFHRIERWK&2DQGEHQ]HQHRILQWHUHVWKHUHLV
WUDQVSRUW7KLV&KDSWHUWKHUHIRUHGHVFULEHVWKHRSWLRQVIRUUHGXFLQJHPLVVLRQVRIFDUERQ
PRQR[LGHDQGEHQ]HQHIURPPRELOHVRXUFHV7KHVHRSWLRQVFDQEHEURDGO\VSOLWLQWRWKUHH
FDWHJRULHV
• 7HFKQLFDORSWLRQVZKLFKFDQUHGXFHSROOXWDQWHPLVVLRQVE\LPSURYLQJYHKLFOH
WHFKQRORJ\LQFOXGLQJDOWHUQDWLYHIXHOVDQGLQVSHFWLRQ PDLQWHQDQFHSURJUDPPHV
• 0DQDJHPHQWRSWLRQVZKLFKFDQUHGXFHSROOXWDQWHPLVVLRQVE\SURPRWLQJWKHPRVW
HFRQRPLFDOO\DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOO\HIILFLHQWXVHRIURDGVSDFH
• 3ROLF\RSWLRQVZKLFKVHWWKHFRQWH[WIRUWKHWDNHXSRIRWKHURSWLRQVLQFOXGLQJHFRQRPLF
DQGUHJXODWRU\PHDVXUHV

$SSHQGL[SURYLGHVDUHYLHZRIWKHDEDWHPHQWRIEHQ]HQHIURPVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHV
$OWKRXJKWKHVHDUHRIYHU\OLPLWHGDSSOLFDWLRQLQWKLVVWXG\WKH\FRXOGEHFRPHPXFKPRUH
LPSRUWDQWLQIXWXUHUHYLVLRQVWRWKHGDXJKWHU'LUHFWLYHDQGVRKDYHEHHQUHWDLQHGWR
FRPSOHWHWKHSLFWXUH

7RGDWHWKHXVHRIWHFKQRORJ\WRUHGXFHYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQVKDVIRFXVHGRQ´HQGRISLSHµ
DQG´IURQWRISLSHµVROXWLRQV&DWDO\WLFFRQYHUWHUV IRUSHWUROYHKLFOHV DGYDQFHGHQJLQH
WHFKQRORJ\DQGPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPVDQG´FOHDQHUµIXHOVKDYHEHHQDQGZLOOFRQWLQXHWR
EHXVHGWRPHHWFXUUHQWDQGIXWXUH(&HPLVVLRQVUHJXODWLRQV0DQDJHPHQWDQGSROLF\
RSWLRQVFROOHFWLYHO\WHUPHG¶QRQWHFKQLFDO·PHDVXUHVVHHNLQJWRDIIHFWHPLVVLRQVE\
FKDQJLQJWKHEHKDYLRXURISROOXWHUVORRNVHWWRJURZLQLPSRUWDQFHIRUHOLPLQDWLQJ
H[FHHGHQFHVRIVWDWXWRU\DLUTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGVLQVSHFLILFORFDWLRQV

:LWKLQWKHIROORZLQJGLVFXVVLRQWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIWHFKQLFDORSWLRQVZLOOEHPDGHRQWKH
IHDVLELOLW\DQGWHFKQLFDOHIIHFWVDQGWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIQRQWHFKQLFDORSWLRQVRQWKH
IHDVLELOLW\DQGHIIHFWVRIPHDVXUHVWKDWPD\EHDYDLODEOH

7KHXVHRIRSWLRQVLQFRPELQDWLRQZLOORIWHQEHQHFHVVDU\WRPHHWDLUTXDOLW\WDUJHWV)RU
H[DPSOHWKHFRQVLGHUDEOHWHFKQRORJLFDOLPSURYHPHQWVZKLFKDUHEHLQJXVHGWRPHHW
(852,,DQG(852,,,HPLVVLRQVVWDQGDUGVPD\KDYHWREHFRPSOHPHQWHGE\WKHXVHRI
HYHQ´FOHDQHUµWHFKQRORJLHVLQQLFKHPDUNHWVRUE\WUDIILFUHVWUDLQWLQRUGHUWRDWWDLQDLU
TXDOLW\WDUJHWVLQSDUWLFXODU¶KRWVSRW·DUHDV

$OLVWRIRSWLRQVRIWKHSRVVLEOHRSWLRQVDYDLODEOHIRUDEDWLQJ&2DQGEHQ]HQHIURP
WUDQVSRUWLVSUHVHQWHGLQ7DEOHEHORZ7KLVOLVWH[FOXGHVWKRVHRSWLRQVWKDWDUHDOUHDG\
LQSODFHRUZLOOEHLQWURGXFHGXQGHUSHQGLQJOHJLVODWLRQ,WVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHGWKDWVRPHRI


$($7HFKQRORJ\
WKHDEDWHPHQWRSWLRQVOLVWHGZLOOEHUHMHFWHGDWDODWHUGDWHSULRUWRIXUWKHUFRVWDQDO\VLVRQ
WKHEDVLVWKDWWKHVHRSWLRQVDUHQRWFRPPHUFLDOO\GHYHORSHGRUWHFKQLFDOO\IHDVLEOH

7DEOH2SWLRQVIRUDEDWHPHQWRIWUDQVSRUWUHODWHGHPLVVLRQVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQH

&DWHJRU\ 2SWLRQ
7HFKQLFDO 7DLOSLSH • $GYDQFHGFDWDO\VWV
2SWLRQV WUHDWPHQWV
(QJLQHFRQWUROV • /HDQEXUQHQJLQHV
• ([KDXVWJDVUHFLUFXODWLRQ
,PSURYHG • ,QFUHDVHGVHYHULW\DQGIUHTXHQF\RIFRPSXOVRU\
GXUDELOLW\RI LQVSHFWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFHFKHFNV
HPLVVLRQFRQWURO • 2QERDUGGLDJQRVWLFV
V\VWHPV • 5HPRWHURDGVLGHVHQVLQJ
• ([WHQVLRQRIPDQXIDFWXUHU·VOLDELOLW\
• &RQIRUPLW\RI9HKLFOHVLQ&LUFXODWLRQ &9&
SURJUDPPHV
$OWHUQDWLYHIXHO • 5HIRUPXODWHGIXHO¶SDFNDJHV·
W\SHV • $OWHUQDWLYHIXHOV &1*/3*ELRIXHOV
FRPSRVLWLRQ
$OWHUQDWLYHGULYH • (OHFWULFYHKLFOHV
WUDLQV • +\EULGYHKLFOHV
(YDSRUDWLYH • ,PSURYHGIXHOV\VWHPDQGODUJHUFDUERQFDQLVWHU
HPLVVLRQFRQWUROV
0DQDJHPHQW 'HPDQG • 7UDIILFUHVWULFWLRQV
2SWLRQV PDQDJHPHQW • 7UDIILFVSHHGUHJXODWLRQV
&RQJHVWLRQ • 7UDIILFOLJKWFRQWUROVHJ87&V\VWHPV
UHGXFWLRQ
(QFRXUDJLQJ • 5HGXFHGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWIDUHV
PRGDOVKLIW • 3DUNDQG5LGH
• 1HZWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV
• 3XEOLFWUDQVSRUWSULRULW\
• )UHLJKWVXEVLGLHV
3ROLF\ (FRQRPLF • 5RDG3ULFLQJ
2SWLRQV • +LJKHUIXHOWD[DWLRQ
• 7D[GLIIHUHQWLDOVWRSURPRWHFOHDQHU
IXHOVHPLVVLRQWD[HV
• 'LIIHUHQWLDWHGYHKLFOHSXUFKDVHWD[HVWRSURPRWH
ORZHUHPLWWLQJYHKLFOHV
• 6XEVLGLHVIRUVFUDSSDJHRIROGYHKLFOHV
5HJXODWLRQ • 9HKLFOHHPLVVLRQVVWDQGDUGV
• )XHOTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGV
• , 0SURJUDPPHV
DOVRTXDOLILHVDVDGHPDQGPDQDJHPHQWWRRO

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
 7(&+1,&$/0($685(6
 7DLOSLSHWUHDWPHQWWHFKQRORJLHV

%RWKSHWURODQGGLHVHOHPLVVLRQVFDQEHUHGXFHGE\H[KDXVWWUHDWPHQW7KHDGYDQWDJHRI
WKLVIRUPRIHPLVVLRQFRQWUROLVWKDWLWFDQEHDSSOLHGWRH[LVWLQJYHKLFOHV7KHPRVW
SURPLVLQJRIWKHVHWHFKQRORJLHVDUHDGYDQFHGFDWDO\VWVIRUSHWUROYHKLFOHV

+HDWHGFDWDO\VWVIRUSHWUROYHKLFOHVKDYHDVLJQLILFDQWSRWHQWLDOIRUUHGXFLQJHPLVVLRQV7KH
DLPRIWKHVHV\VWHPVLVWREULQJWKHFDWDO\VWWRLWVRSHUDWLQJWHPSHUDWXUHDVVRRQDVSRVVLEOH
DIWHUFUDQNLQJWKHHQJLQHKHQFHLQFUHDVLQJLWVFROGVWDUWHIIHFWLYHQHVVFRQVLGHUDEO\&RVWV
KDYHFRPHGRZQGUDPDWLFDOO\RYHUUHFHQW\HDUV$OWHUQDWLYHO\FORVHGFRXSOHGFDWDO\VWV
DFKLHYHYHU\LPSUHVVLYHK\GURFDUERQHPLVVLRQILJXUHVZLWKRXWUHYHUWLQJWRDKHDWHGFDWDO\VW

 (QJLQHFRQWUROV

,PSURYHGHOHFWURQLFHQJLQHFRQWUROVFDQDFKLHYHVLJQLILFDQWUHGXFWLRQVLQHPLVVLRQVE\
PDLQWDLQLQJWKHHQJLQHDWDQRSWLPXPDLUIXHOUDWLR7KHPRVWSURPLVLQJWHFKQRORJLHVDUH
H[KDXVWJDVUHFLUFXODWLRQ (*5 V\VWHPVDQGOHDQEXUQHQJLQHV

(*5LVSDUWLFXODUO\DLPHGDWUHGXFLQJ12 EXWFXUUHQWV\VWHPVKDYHWKHGLVDGYDQWDJHWKDW
[

WKH\DIIHFWWKHGULYDELOLW\RIWKHFDU(QKDQFHGIXWXUHV\VWHPVZLOOEHFRQWUROOHG
HOHFWURQLFDOO\WKURXJKWKHFHQWUDOFRQWUROXQLWDQGZLOODOVREHPRQLWRUHGE\DQRQERDUG
GLDJQRVWLFVV\VWHP

/HDQEXUQHQJLQHVUXQDWKLJKDLUIXHOUDWLRVRQO\DWOLJKWORDGVWKH\UXQDWULFKDLUIXHO
UDWLRVDWKLJKORDGVWRPD[LPLVHSRZHU0RGHUQOHDQEXUQHQJLQHVFRPPHUFLDOLVHG
UHFHQWO\LQ-DSDQLPSURYHYHKLFOHIXHOHFRQRP\E\WRSHUFHQW$GLVDGYDQWDJHRIOHDQ
EXUQHQJLQHVKRZHYHULVWKDWWKH\FDQQRWXVHFRQYHQWLRQDOZD\FDWDO\VWV

 ,PSURYHGGXUDELOLW\RIHPLVVLRQFRQWUROV\VWHPV

6LJQLILFDQWUHGXFWLRQVLQYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQVFDQEHDFKLHYHGE\UHGXFLQJWKHUDWHRI
GHWHULRUDWLRQLQWKHHPLVVLRQVFRQWUROV\VWHPV7KH$XWR2LO3URJUDPPHLGHQWLILHGWKH
IROORZLQJPHFKDQLVPVIRUDFKLHYLQJWKLV
• ,QFUHDVHGVHYHULW\DQGIUHTXHQF\RIFRPSXOVRU\LQVSHFWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFHFKHFNV
• ([WHQVLRQRIWKHPDQXIDFWXUHU·VOLDELOLW\IRUWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHHPLVVLRQFRQWURO
V\VWHPVIURPWRNP
• (OHFWURQLFVHQVRUVLQVWDOOHGRQWKHYHKLFOHWRPRQLWRUWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHV\VWHPV
RQERDUGGLDJQRVWLFV 
• 5HFDOOSURFHGXUHV HJ&RQIRUPLW\RI9HKLFOHVLQ&LUFXODWLRQ &9& SURJUDPPHV
ZKHUHE\PRGHOVFDQEHUHILWWHGLIWKHLUHPLVVLRQVSHUIRUPDQFHGHWHULRUDWHVEH\RQGDQ
DFFHSWDEOHOHYHO
• ,PSURYHGPHFKDQLVPVIRUWKHUHPRWHURDGVLGHGHWHFWLRQRIYHKLFOHVHPLWWLQJDERYH
DFFHSWDEOHOHYHOV


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 $OWHUQDWLYHDQGUHIRUPXODWHGIXHOV

7KHXVHRIDOWHUQDWLYHIXHOVWRSHWURODQGGLHVHOKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWREULQJDERXWVLJQLILFDQW
UHGXFWLRQVLQ&2DQGEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQV (768 7KHLUDSSOLFDWLRQLVSDUWLFXODUO\
VXLWHGWRIOHHWRSHUDWRUVZKRFDQGLVSHQVHIXHOIURPDFHQWUDOGHSRWWRYHKLFOHVRSHUDWLQJLQ
DOLPLWHGJHRJUDSKLFDODUHD7KXVWKHXVHRIDOWHUQDWLYHIXHOVLQEXVHVWD[LVRUOLJKWGHOLYHU\
YHKLFOHVFRXOGSOD\DQLPSRUWDQWUROH7KHVXPPDU\RIWKH&RVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVUHSRUWRI
$23, 7RXFKH5RVVSOLLL ILQGVWKDWWKHXVHRIOLTXHILHGSHWUROHXPJDV /3*
IXHOOHGEXVHVLQDUHDVRIKLJKORFDOSROOXWLRQDSSHDUVWREHPRUHFRVWHIIHFWLYHLQFRQWUROOLQJ
12 OHYHOVWKDQKLJKHUWHFKQLFDOVWDQGDUGVDSSOLHGWRSDVVHQJHUFDUVWKURXJKRXWWKH(8
[

+RZHYHU(768  IRXQGWKDW/3*GULYHQEXVHVFRXOGHPLWGRXEOHWKH&2WKDWDEXV


UXQQLQJRQGLHVHOHPLWV

3RVVLEOHDOWHUQDWLYHIXHOVLQFOXGHFRPSUHVVHGQDWXUDOJDV &1* /3*PHWKDQRO 0H2+


DQGHWKDQRO (W2+ ,QDGGLWLRQHOHFWULFYHKLFOHVKDYHDSRWHQWLDOO\LPSRUWDQWUROHLQ
KHOSLQJWRLPSURYHXUEDQDLUTXDOLW\EHFDXVHRIWKHLU]HURHPLVVLRQVDWSRLQWRIXVH2I
FRXUVHWKHHPLVVLRQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKHOHFWULFYHKLFOHRSHUDWLRQDUHGHSHQGHQWXSRQWKH
FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ+RZHYHUHYHQLIWRWDOHOHFWULFYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQVDUH
KLJKHU LHLQWKHDPRXQWRI&2SURGXFHG WKHLUFRPSDUDWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFW DQG
WKHLUHIIHFWRQDLUTXDOLW\OHYHOVLQDUHDVZKHUHDLUTXDOLW\LVRIPRVWFRQFHUQ LVXVXDOO\ORZ
DVWKH\DUHQRWUHOHDVHGLQKLJKO\SRSXODWHGXUEDQHQYLURQPHQWV

$QXPEHURIPDQXIDFWXUHUVKDYHH[SUHVVHGWKHLUEHOLHIWKDWIXHOFHOOSRZHUHGYHKLFOHVZLOO
EHRQWKHPDUNHWZLWKLQ\HDUVLQVLJQLILFDQWQXPEHUV+RZHYHULWZRXOGVHHPXQOLNHO\
WKDWWKHWDNHXSRIWKHVHYHKLFOHVZRXOGPDNHDVXEVWDQWLDOGLIIHUHQFHWRDLUTXDOLW\RQWKH
WLPHVFDOHRILQWHUHVWKHUH WR 8VHRIILVFDOPHDVXUHVFRXOGRIFRXUVHSXVKVDOHVRI
WKHVHDQGRWKHUUHODWLYHO\EHQLJQWHFKQRORJLHV

7KHLQWURGXFWLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHIXHOVLQWRWKHPDUNHWZLOOEHGHSHQGHQWXSRQDQXPEHURI
IDFWRUVVXFKDVFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVKDUPRQLVDWLRQRIIXHOGLVWULEXWLRQDYDLODELOLW\RIYHKLFOH
WHFKQRORJ\VHFXULW\RIIXHOVXSSO\DQGDYDLODELOLW\RIPDLQWHQDQFHVHUYLFHV,WLVZLGHO\
SHUFHLYHGWKDW/3*&1*DQGHOHFWULFDUHWKHPRVWOLNHO\IXHOVIRUHDUO\LQWURGXFWLRQ
ODUJHO\EHFDXVHRIWKHLURYHUDOOFRVWDGYDQWDJHFRPSDUHGWRRWKHUDOWHUQDWLYHV

$IXHOPRGLILFDWLRQ´SDFNDJHµLVGHILQHGDVDIXHOIRUZKLFKWKHYDOXHVRIFHUWDLQ
HQYLURQPHQWDOO\UHOHYDQWSDUDPHWHUVFRQIRUPWRFRQILQHGOLPLWV &(& 7KHVH
SDUDPHWHUVIRUUHIRUPXODWHGIXHOVFRQWDLQHGLQWKHIXHOSDFNDJHVZHUHGHILQHGLQ$23,
DQGLQFOXGHEHQ]HQH

 (YDSRUDWLYHHPLVVLRQFRQWUROV

7KHLQWURGXFWLRQRIDPRUHVWULQJHQWHYDSRUDWLYHHPLVVLRQVWHVWSURFHGXUHIRUJDVROLQHFDUV
KDVUHFHQWO\EHHQGLVFXVVHGLQ(XURSH,QFRQWUDVWWRWKH86VSHFLILFDWLRQWKHSURSRVHG
(XURSHDQVSHFLILFDWLRQZRXOGH[FOXGHRQERDUGYDSRXUUHFRYHU\7KHPDMRUFKDQJHV
UHTXLUHGWRWKHYHKLFOHUHODWHWRWKHIXHOV\VWHP,PSURYHPHQWVDUHUHTXLUHGLQWKH
SLSHZRUNFRQQHFWRUVDQGIXHOWDQN$ODUJHUFDUERQFDQLVWHULVDOVRUHTXLUHG7KLVW\SHRI

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
PHDVXUHPD\EHRISDUWLFXODULQWHUHVWLQWKHVRXWKHUQ(XURSHDQFRXQWULHVZKHUHKLJK
WHPSHUDWXUHVPDNHHYDSRUDWLRQIURPYHKLFOHVDPDWWHURIJUHDWHUFRQFHUQWKDQLQWKHQRUWK

 1217(&+1,&$/0($685(6
7KHPHDVXUHVOLVWHGLQ7DEOHDOVRLQFOXGHPDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHV ZKLFKDOWHUWUDQVSRUW
GHPDQG DQGSROLF\RSWLRQVVXFKDVPDUNHWEDVHGSROLF\LQVWUXPHQWVWKDWDLPWRLQGXFH
SROOXWHUVWRPHHWWKHVSHFLILHGFRPSOLDQFHOHYHOV7KHVHRSWLRQVDUHGLVFXVVHGLQWXUQ
EHORZ

 0DQDJHPHQWRSWLRQV

7UDIILFPDQDJHPHQWRSWLRQVIRUUHGXFLQJYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQFDQEHJURXSHGDVIROORZV
• 7UDIILFUHVWUDLQW
• &RQJHVWLRQUHGXFWLRQ
• (QFRXUDJLQJPRGDOVKLIW

%RWKWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHVHPHDVXUHVRQHPLVVLRQVDQGWKHLUFRVWVDUHYHU\GLIILFXOWWRSUHGLFW
EHFDXVHWKH\DFWRQHPLVVLRQVLQGLUHFWO\WKURXJKSULFHRUUHJXODWRU\PHFKDQLVPVWKDWLQ
WXUQDIIHFWFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRXU

7UDIILF5HVWUDLQW
6FKHPHVWKDWUHGXFHWKHWRWDOYROXPHRIWUDIILFLQDQDUHDZLOOWHQGWREHDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
UHGXFHGHPLVVLRQV+RZHYHUZKHUHVXFKFKDQJHVFDXVHDUHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWUDIILFWKHQ
HQYLURQPHQWDOGLVEHQHILWVFDQDOVREHH[SHFWHG

5RDGSULFLQJLVLQFUHDVLQJO\EHLQJFRQVLGHUHGE\SROLF\PDNHUVDVDSRWHQWLDOO\FRVW
HIIHFWLYHPHDQVRIUHGXFLQJFRQJHVWLRQ,WKDVWKHGXDOHIIHFWRIUHGXFLQJWKHWRWDOYROXPH
RIWUDIILFDQGHQFRXUDJLQJSDVVHQJHUVWRPRYHIURPSULYDWHWRSXEOLFWUDQVSRUW7KH
(8&$56VLPXODWLRQPRGHOXVHGLQ$23,SUHGLFWHGDUHGXFWLRQLQHPLVVLRQVLQXUEDQ
DUHDVE\WRIRUDQLQFUHDVHLQURDGWUDYHOFRVWVRIULVLQJWRWRIRUDQ
LQFUHDVHLQURDGWUDYHOFRVWVRI7KHUHZRXOGEHVOLJKWO\ORZHUWRWDOHPLVVLRQV
UHGXFWLRQVUDQJLQJIURPWRIRUDLQFUHDVHULVLQJWRWRIRUD
LQFUHDVH

$23,FRQFOXGHGWKDWURDGSULFLQJZDVSRWHQWLDOO\WKHPRVWFRVWHIIHFWLYHORFDO
PDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHDYDLODEOHIRUHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQV7KHUHDUHKRZHYHUDQXPEHURI
SUREOHPVZLWKURDGSULFLQJ,WLVKLJKO\FDSLWDOLQWHQVLYHUHTXLULQJVLJQLILFDQWLQYHVWPHQW
RXWOD\V,QDGGLWLRQWKHWHFKQRORJ\IRUFKDUJLQJVWLOOUHPDLQVWREHWHVWHGIRUODUJH
VFKHPHV7KHUHLVDOVRDSUREOHPRIHTXLW\LQWKDWURDGXVHUFKDUJHVZRXOGKLWWKHSRRUHVW
PRWRULVWKDUGHVW

7UDIILFUHVWULFWLRQVRUEDQVDUHLPSRUWDQWWRROVRIWUDIILFPDQDJHPHQW7UDIILFUHVWULFWLRQ
SROLFLHVPD\EHUHLQIRUFHGE\SDUNLQJSROLFLHVWROLPLWWKHVXSSO\RULQFUHDVHWKHSULFHRI
SDUNLQJLQFHQWUDODUHDV3DUWLFXODUW\SHVRIWUDIILFUHVWULFWLRQVFKHPHVDUH
• /LFHQFHSODWHEDQVZKHUHYHKLFOHVDUHDOORZHGWRHQWHUDQDUHDRQDOWHUQDWHGD\VRQO\WKH
GD\VEHLQJGHWHUPLQHGRQWKHEDVLVRIWKHOLFHQVHSODWH


$($7HFKQRORJ\
• 3HUPLWHQWU\V\VWHPVZKHUHDFFHVVWRDUHDVLVUHVWULFWHGWRGHILQHGJURXSVVXFKDV
UHVLGHQWVRUFRPPHUFLDOYHKLFOHVRQO\
• 7RWDODUHDEDQVZKHUHDOOWUDIILFLVUHVWULFWHGIURPDXVXDOO\VPDOOFHQWUDODUHD
• 5RDGFORVXUHVGXULQJH[FHHGHQFHHSLVRGHV

$23,SUHGLFWHGWKDWWUDIILFUHVWUDLQWPD\KDYHVRPHSRWHQWLDODVDPHWKRGRIUHGXFLQJ
HPLVVLRQVLQDUHDVRIKLJKORFDOSROOXWLRQ

7KHGLUHFWFRVWVRIWUDIILFUHVWULFWLRQVDUHTXLWHORZ3XWWLQJLQSODFHWUDIILFUHVWULFWLRQV
W\SLFDOO\LQYROYHVVRPHFDSLWDOLQYHVWPHQWIRUVLJQVDQGPLQRUKLJKZD\ZRUNVWRLPSHGH
WUDIILF7KHUHDUHKRZHYHUDGGLWLRQDOLQGLUHFWFRVWVIRUPRWRULVWVUHODWHGWRWKHDGGLWLRQDO
WLPHVSHQWPDNLQJMRXUQH\V

&RQJHVWLRQ5HGXFWLRQ
6FKHPHVWKDWUHGXFHFRQJHVWLRQWHQGWRUHGXFHHPLVVLRQVGXHWRWKHUHGXFWLRQRIVWRSVWDUW
RSHUDWLRQV7KHUHDUHPDQ\GLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIXUEDQWUDIILFFRQWUROV\VWHPV 87& 7DEOH
VXPPDULVHVWKHGLIIHUHQWW\SHVDQGVKRZVHVWLPDWHVRIFKDQJHVLQIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQ
ZKHUHWKHVHKDYHEHHQHVWLPDWHG

7DEOH,PSDFWVRI87&6\VWHPV

6\VWHP &KDQJHLQ)XHO
&RQVXPSWLRQ
75$16<7IL[HGWLPHVLJQDOFRRUGLQDWLRQVHWWRPLQLPLVH XSWR
GHOD\FRPSDUHGWRXQFRRUGLQDWHGVLJQDOV
3ODQQHGJUHHQZDYHDOORZLQJVPRRWKGULYLQJDWNPK  &DHQ
6&227VLJQDOFRRUGLQDWLRQFRPSDUHGWRIL[HGWLPH  *ODVJRZ&RYHQWU\
 :RUFHVWHU
6RXUFH 75/  

$QXPEHURIODUJHWRZQVDQGFLWLHVLQ(XURSHDOUHDG\KDYHVRPHIRUPRI87&V\VWHPVR
WKHUHLVRQO\OLPLWHGSRWHQWLDOIRUDFKLHYLQJIXUWKHUHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQV+RZHYHU87&
V\VWHPVDUHEHLQJH[WHQGHGWRLQWHJUDWHWUDIILFDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOPRQLWRULQJDQG
PDQDJHPHQWDQGWKHUHDUHDOVRSRWHQWLDOHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVLQGLFDWHGE\XVLQJ87&
V\VWHPVWRJLYHSULRULW\WRSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWYHKLFOHVDQGWRDFKLHYHDUHDZLGHWUDIILFUHVWUDLQW

(QFRXUDJLQJ0RGDO6KLIW
6FKHPHVWKDWHQFRXUDJHDFKDQJHIURPSULYDWHFDUXVHWRSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWVKRXOGSURGXFH
QHWHPLVVLRQVEHQHILWVDOWKRXJKGLVEHQHILWVPD\DOVRRFFXUGXHWRLQFUHDVHGIORZVRISXEOLF
WUDQVSRUW0RGDOVKLIWPHDVXUHVLQFOXGH
• 3DUNDQGULGH
• 1HZWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV
• 3XEOLFWUDQVSRUWSULRULW\

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
• 5HGXFHGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWIDUHV
• )UHLJKWVXEVLGLHV

3DUNDQG5LGHVFKHPHVKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWRUHGXFHFDUXVHZLWKLQWKHLQQHUFLW\DUHDEXW
WKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKLVLVDFKLHYHGKDVQRWEHHQZHOOGRFXPHQWHG7KH\PD\DOVR
VWLPXODWHDGGLWLRQDOWULSVDQGWULSVZLWKIXUWKHUGLVWDQFHV)RUWKHVHUHDVRQVWRJHWKHUZLWK
WKHIDLUO\KLJKLQYHVWPHQWFRVWVUHTXLUHGSDUNDQGULGHPD\QRWEHDFRVWHIIHFWLYHRSWLRQ
IRUUHGXFLQJHPLVVLRQV

6LPLODUO\QHZWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPVUHTXLUHDYHU\KLJKFDSLWDOFRVWIRUTXHVWLRQDEOH
HPLVVLRQVEHQHILWV,WLVRQO\ZLWKWKHXVHFRPSOHPHQWDU\FDUUHVWUDLQWSROLFLHVWKDWWKH
EHQHILWVRIQHZDWWUDFWLYHSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPVZLOOEHUHDOLVHG

%XVSULRULW\PHDVXUHVFDQVLJQLILFDQWO\LQFUHDVHVHUYLFHUHOLDELOLW\UHGXFHMRXUQH\WLPHV
DQGEXVHPLVVLRQVEXWPD\LQFUHDVHHPLVVLRQVIURPRWKHUYHKLFOHV7KXVWKHRYHUDOOHIIHFW
RQHPLVVLRQVFDQVRPHWLPHVEHVPDOO

7KHHYLGHQFHIURPUHGXFHGSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWIDUHVLVWKDWWKH\UHVXOWLQVLJQLILFDQWO\
LQFUHDVHGSDWURQDJHEXWRQO\DVPDOOGHFUHDVHLQFDUXVH7KHUHDVRQIRUWKLVLVWKDWWKH
ORZHUSULFHVUHOHDVHVXSSUHVVHGGHPDQGDPRQJWKHSRRUHUPHPEHUVRIVRFLHW\IRUZKRP
WKHSUHYLRXVSULFHZDVWRRKLJKEXWGRQRWRIIHUHQRXJKEHQHILWWRHQWLFHFDUXVHUVDZD\
IURPWKHLUFDUV)RUH[DPSOHZLWKDUHGXFWLRQLQSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWIDUHV$23,
SUHGLFWHGDLQFUHDVHLQSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWXVHDQGDUHGXFWLRQLQWRWDOFDUPLOHDJH
$VWKLVVKRZVWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQVRIUHGXFHGIDUHVLVOLPLWHGXQOHVV
XQGHUWDNHQLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWKRWKHUPHDVXUHVWRHQFRXUDJHPRGDOVZLWFK VXFKDVURDG
SULFLQJ 

)UHLJKWVXEVLGLHVIRUDOWHUQDWLYHPRGHVRIURDGIUHLJKW +*9V KDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWR


VLJQLILFDQWO\UHGXFHHPLVVLRQVDQGFRQJHVWLRQLQERWKXUEDQDQGQRQXUEDQDUHDV7KH
DYDLODEOHHYLGHQFHVXJJHVWVKRZHYHUWKDWWKLVLVUHODWLYHO\H[SHQVLYHDQGDVVXFKIUHLJKW
VXEVLGLHVPD\QRWEHWKHPRVWFRVWHIIHFWLYHPHWKRGRIUHGXFLQJSROOXWDQWHPLVVLRQV

,WVKRXOGEHVWUHVVHGWKDWWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIDOOPRGDOVKLIWRSWLRQVFDQEHHQKDQFHG
VLJQLILFDQWO\ZKHQLQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKRWKHUPHDVXUHVVXFKDVURDGSULFLQJRUWUDIILF
UHVWUDLQW

)LQDOO\ZLWKDOOWKHVHORFDOWUDIILFPDQDJHPHQWRSWLRQVOLPLWHGFRVWGDWDDUHDYDLODEOH
0RUHRYHUWKHUHLVQRFRQVLVWHQWPHWKRGRORJ\IRUSURSRUWLRQLQJFRVWVEHWZHHQSROOXWDQWV

 3ROLF\RSWLRQV

3ROLF\PHDVXUHVVHWWKHFRQWH[WIRUWKHWDNHXSRIRWKHURSWLRQV$JDLQWKHUHDUHDUDQJHRI
SROLF\RSWLRQVWRUHGXFHHPLVVLRQVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHIURPWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRU7KHVH
FDQEHVSOLWLQWRWZRPDLQFDWHJRULHV
• (FRQRPLFDQGILVFDOPHDVXUHV
• 5HJXODWRU\PHDVXUHV


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 (FRQRPLFDQGILVFDOPHDVXUHV

7KHUHDUHVHYHUDOZD\VLQZKLFKILVFDOSROLF\FRXOGEHXVHGWRUHGXFHURDGWUDQVSRUW
HPLVVLRQV7KHVHUDQJHIURPLQFUHDVHGWD[DWLRQWRUHGXFHWKHWRWDOOHYHORIWUDQVSRUW
DFWLYLW\WRGLIIHUHQWLDOWD[DWLRQWRHQFRXUDJHWKHXVHRIWKHOHVVSROOXWLQJYHKLFOHW\SHV

)XHO7D[
,QFUHDVHGIXHOWD[HVKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWRUHGXFHHPLVVLRQVE\HQFRXUDJLQJFRQVXPHUVWR
• 7UDYHOOHVVE\FDU
• 'ULYHPRUHIUXJDOO\DQG
• 3XUFKDVHPRUHIXHOHIILFLHQWYHKLFOHV

,QDGGLWLRQIXHOWD[HVSURYLGHDQLQFHQWLYHWRYHKLFOHPDQXIDFWXUHUVWRSURGXFHPRUHIXHO
HIILFLHQWYHKLFOHV+LJKHUIXHOWD[HVDUHHDV\DQGFKHDSWRLPSOHPHQWDQGGLUHFWO\WDUJHW
IXHOXVHDQGWKHUHIRUHHPLVVLRQV7KH$XWR2LOVWXG\VXJJHVWVWKDWLQFUHDVHVRIIXHOWD[RI
FDQUHGXFHHPLVVLRQVE\WR+RZHYHUKLJKHUIXHOWD[HVKDYHOLPLWDWLRQVDV
WKH\UHVXOWLQVLJQLILFDQWZHOIDUHFRVWVIRUPRWRULVWV,QDGGLWLRQWKLVIRUPRIWD[DWLRQLV
UHJUHVVLYHDQGKDVQRZD\RIWDUJHWLQJWKRVHDUHDVZKHUHWKHJUHDWHVWUHGXFWLRQVLQ
HPLVVLRQVDUHUHTXLUHG

'LIIHUHQWLDO)XHO7D[
7KHVHIXHOWD[HVFDQEHXVHGWRDOWHUWKHWD[GLIIHUHQWLDOEHWZHHQSHWURODQGGLHVHO7KHXVH
RIWKHSULFHPHFKDQLVPLVDYHU\HIIHFWLYHPHWKRGRIDFKLHYLQJWKHGHVLUHGRXWFRPHDVWKH
UDSLGLQWURGXFWLRQRIXQOHDGHGIXHOVLQWKH(8VLQFHWKHODWH·VKDVGHPRQVWUDWHG,Q
DGGLWLRQLWLVDOVRYHU\VLPSOHWRDGPLQLVWHU7KHPDLQSUREOHPZLWKWKLVDSSURDFK
KRZHYHULVWKDWDOWKRXJKFHUWDLQWDUJHWSROOXWDQWVPD\EHUHGXFHGWKHUHZLOOEHNQRFNRQ
HIIHFWVRQWKHRWKHUHPLVVLRQVZKLFKPD\OHDGWRLQFUHDVHV

9HKLFOH3XUFKDVH7D[
7KHXVHRIWD[DWLRQWRLQFUHDVHWKHFRVWRIWUDQVSRUWDQGWKHUHE\UHGXFHWKHOHYHORIWUDIILFLV
DQRWKHURSWLRQ+RZHYHUEHFDXVHRIWKHYHU\ORZHODVWLFLWLHVRIGHPDQGREVHUYHGLQWKH
WUDQVSRUWVHFWRUVLJQLILFDQWLQFUHDVHVZRXOGKDYHWREHPDGHEHIRUHDQ\QRWLFHDEOH
UHGXFWLRQVZHUHPDGH7KLVRSWLRQDOVRKDVWKHQHJDWLYHVLGHHIIHFWRILQFUHDVLQJWKH
DYHUDJHDJHRIWKHFDUIOHHWWKHUHIRUHLQFUHDVLQJHPLVVLRQV,QDGGLWLRQWKLVIRUPRI
WD[DWLRQLVUHJUHVVLYHDQGKDVQRZD\RIWDUJHWLQJWKRVHDUHDVZKHUHWKHJUHDWHVWUHGXFWLRQV
LQHPLVVLRQVDUHUHTXLUHG

6WUXFWXUHGYHKLFOHSXUFKDVHWD[HVFDQDFKLHYHLPSURYHPHQWVLQWKHDYHUDJHIXHO
FRQVXPSWLRQRIWKHYHKLFOHIOHHWUDWKHUWKDQHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQVSHUVH7KH(8&$56
VLPXODWLRQRIWKH$XWR2LOVWXG\VXJJHVWVWKDWIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQSHUNPLVUHGXFHGE\XSWR
+RZHYHUWKHUHODWLYHLPSDFWRQHPLVVLRQV RWKHUWKDQ&2 LVYHU\VPDOODWOHVVWKDQ


HYHQIRUWKHKLJKHVWUDWHRIWD[ (XURIRUHYHU\OLWUHSHUNPLQH[FHVVRIWKH
WDUJHWOHYHORIOLWUHVSHUNP 

6FUDSSDJH6XEVLGLHV
6FUDSSDJHVXEVLGLHVDUHJUDQWVSDLGE\WKHJRYHUQPHQWWRWKHFRQVXPHURQUHOHDVHRIROG
YHKLFOHVIRUVFUDSSDJH7KHVHPD\EHXVHGDVDSROLF\WRROWRUHGXFHRYHUDOOHPLVVLRQVIURP

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
WKHYHKLFOHSDUF+RZHYHUWKHHPLVVLRQVEHQHILWVRIVXFKDSROLF\DUHJHQHUDOO\ORZ
URXJKO\ 7KLVLVODUJHO\EHFDXVHWKHUHLVQRVLPSOHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHDJHRID
YHKLFOHDQGLWVHPLVVLRQVFKDUDFWHULVWLFV$OVRDVVFUDSSDJHLQFHQWLYHVDUHW\SLFDOO\SURYLGHG
WRDOOYHKLFOHVDERYHDFHUWDLQDJHLUUHVSHFWLYHRIWKHLUHPLVVLRQVFKDUDFWHULVWLFVWKH\DUH
TXLWHFRVWO\WRLPSOHPHQW+LJKHUEHQHILWVPLJKWEHDFKLHYHGLIVFUDSSDJHVFKHPHVZHUHWR
EHFRQVLGHUHGLQFRQMXQFWLRQZLWKSROLFLHVWRUDLVHWKHHPLVVLRQVVWDQGDUGVRIWKHQHZ
UHSODFHPHQWYHKLFOHV,QWKLVFRQWH[WWKHVFUDSSDJHVXEVLG\ZRXOGHQKDQFHWKH
HIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWHFKQLFDOPHDVXUHVE\DFFHOHUDWLQJWKHUHMXYHQDWLRQRIWKHYHKLFOHIOHHW

,WLVSRVVLEOHWKDWVFUDSSDJHVFKHPHVFRXOGEHUHILQHGVRWKDWWKH\DUHEHWWHUWDUJHWHGDWWKH
PRVWSROOXWLQJYHKLFOHV,WLVZRUWKQRWLQJWKHUHSRUWHGVXFFHVVRIDVFKHPHLQWURGXFHGLQ
,WDO\ZKHUHPRUHWKDQYHKLFOHVZHUHVFUDSSHGVRRQDIWHUWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKH
VFKHPH*RYHUQPHQWH[SHQGLWXUHZDVPRUHWKDQPDWFKHGE\LQFUHDVHGUHYHQXHVIURP
QHZFDUVDOHVWKDWZHUHDSSDUHQWO\OLQNHGWRWKHVFUDSSDJHVFKHPH SUHVVUHSRUWV $23,
UHSRUWHGWKDWDZHOOGHVLJQHGVFUDSSDJHVFKHPHPD\EHSDUWLFXODUO\HIIHFWLYHLQ*UHHFH
JLYHQWKHH[WUHPHO\ORZUDWHRIYHKLFOHUHSODFHPHQWWKHUH 7RXFKH5RVV 

$OWKRXJKILVFDOSROLFLHVFDQEHYHU\HIIHFWLYHWKH\IUHTXHQWO\ODFNWKHIRFXVQHFHVVDU\IRU
WKHPWREHFRVWHIIHFWLYHSROLF\WRROVIRUPHHWLQJDLUTXDOLW\WDUJHWVZKHQFRPSDUHGWRZHOO
WDUJHWHGUHJXODWLRQ,QDGGLWLRQWKHLUHIIHFWLVJUDGXDOPDNLQJWKHPXQVXLWHGIRUWDFNOLQJ
WKHSUREOHPRISHDNDLUSROOXWLRQFRQFHQWUDWLRQV

 5HJXODWRU\PHDVXUHV

7KHUHLVDUDQJHRIUHJXODWRU\SROLF\RSWLRQVDYDLODEOHWRUHGXFHHPLVVLRQVRI&2DQG
EHQ]HQH7KHVHLQFOXGH
• 9HKLFOHHPLVVLRQVVWDQGDUGV
• )XHOTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGV
• ,QVSHFWLRQDQG0DLQWHQDQFHSURJUDPPHV

0DQ\RIWKHPHDVXUHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQVWDQGDUGVDQGLQVSHFWLRQDQG
PDLQWHQDQFHSURJUDPPHVKDYHDOUHDG\EHHQGHVFULEHGDERYH$OWKRXJKIXHOTXDOLW\
VWDQGDUGVPD\RIIHUVRPHEHQHILWFDUHPXVWEHWDNHQLQLQWURGXFLQJVXFKPHDVXUHV
5HVHDUFKKDVVKRZQWKDWDOWKRXJK&2DQGEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQVFDQEHUHGXFHGE\UHGXFLQJ
WKHDURPDWLFFRQWHQWRIIXHOWKLVFDQLQFUHDVH12 HPLVVLRQVIRUFHUWDLQGULYHF\FOHVDQG
[

HQJLQHVPD\EHEHFDXVHRIWKHHIILFLHQF\RYHUWKHFDWDO\VWIRUORZDURPDWLFIXHOV (3()( 
7KHUHZLOODOVREHDGGLWLRQDONQRFNRQLPSDFWVWRXSVWUHDPLQGXVWULHVVXFKDVRLO
UHILQHULHV

 &26762)$%$7(0(17237,216)2502%,/(6285&(6
 (PLVVLRQV

0RVWGDWDRQFRQWUROPHDVXUHVDUHLQWHUPVRIFRVWSHUYHKLFOHDQGHPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQ
SHUYHKLFOH,QRUGHUWRGHWHUPLQHRYHUDOOFRVWSHUWRQQHDEDWHGIRUJLYHQDPELHQW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQDQGWKHUHIRUHHPLVVLRQWDUJHWVLWLVQHFHVVDU\WRHVWLPDWHWKHHPLVVLRQVSHU


$($7HFKQRORJ\
YHKLFOHH[SHFWHGIRU'DWDRQHPLVVLRQVSHUYHKLFOHZHUHWDNHQIURP8.VRXUFHV
'HSDUWPHQWRI7UDQVSRUW FURVVFKHFNHGZLWKWKH$23,DVVXPSWLRQVDQG
VXEVHTXHQWGHFUHDVHUHODWLQJWRWKH'LUHFWLYHVWKDWIROORZHG$23,7KLVGHPRQVWUDWHVWKDW
E\HDFKYHKLFOHZRXOGHPLWDSSUR[LPDWHO\NJRIFDUERQPRQR[LGHDQGNJRI
EHQ]HQHSHU\HDU

 &RVWFXUYHV

$VVXPSWLRQV
,QRUGHUWRFDOFXODWHDFRVWFXUYHDVVXPSWLRQVQHHGWREHPDGHDERXW
• WKHOLNHO\PHDVXUHVZKLFKFDQEHDGRSWHG
• WKHLUUDQJHRIFRVWV
• SRWHQWLDOSHQHWUDWLRQ PDUNHWVKDUHRUDGRSWLRQRIDEDWHPHQWPHDVXUHV DQG
• VXEVHTXHQWUDQJHRIHIILFLHQFLHV

7DEOHGHWDLOVWKHDVVXPSWLRQVWKDWZHUHXVHGEDVHGODUJHO\RQWKHILQGLQJVRIWKH$XWR
2LOSURMHFW3HQHWUDWLRQDSSHDUVWREHVWDWLFLQWKH7DEOHDVLWGHDOVZLWKSRWHQWLDOLQWKHWLPH
DYDLODEOHEHIRUHIXOOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIWKHSURSRVHG'LUHFWLYH

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
7DEOH$VVXPSWLRQVUHODWLQJWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKH&RVW&XUYH
0HDVXUH &RVW 3HQHWUDWLRQ (IILFLHQF\ (IILFLHQF\
(XURSHU ZLWK ZLWK
YHKLFOH UHVSHFWWR UHVSHFWWR
EHQ]HQH &2
0LQ 0D[ & /* % +* 0LQ 0D[ 0LQ 0D[
/HDQ%XUQ          
'H12 [

$GYDQFHG          
&DWDO\VW
7UDIILF          
5HVWULFWLRQV
,QVSHFWLRQ          

0DLQWHQDQFH
5RDG3ULFLQJ          
,PSURYHG          
9HKLFOH
'HVLJQ
(PLVVLRQV          
EDVHG
3XUFKDVH
7D[
)XHO5HIRU          
PXODWLRQV
&1*/3*          
/*9HKLFOHV
(QJLQH          
&RQWURO
6\VWHPV
(OHFWULF          
YHKLFOHV
6XEVLGLVHG          
3XEOLF
7UDQVSRUW
&1*%XVHV          
&&DUV
/*/LJKW*RRGV
%%XVHV
+*+HDY\*RRGV

)XUWKHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQVWKDWZHUHPDGHDUHDVIROORZV
• 5HJXODWLRQVZLOOFRPHLQWRHIIHFWE\DQGWRDOOLQWHQWVDQGSXUSRVHVWKHEXONRIWKH
IOHHWZLOOFRPSO\ZLWKWKHVHUHJXODWLRQVE\


$($7HFKQRORJ\
• 7KHQXPEHURINPWUDYHOOHGE\YHKLFOHVWKHYHKLFOHIOHHWJURZWKIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQ
WUDIILFGHQVLWLHVHWFDUHDVDVVXPHGLQWKH$XWR2LOSURJUDPPH7KHQDWLRQDO&2DQG
EHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQLQLVWKHUHIRUHGHHPHGWREHGLUHFWO\SURSRUWLRQDOWRWKHHPLVVLRQ
UDWHIURPYHKLFOHVLQWHUPVRIJNP
• :KHUHDUDQJHRIFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVILJXUHVZHUHXQDYDLODEOHILJXUHVDERYHDQGEHORZ
WKHVWDWHGILJXUHZHUHXVHGWRFRQVWUXFWDUDQJH

6FHQDULRV
7KHFRVWFXUYHLVFRQVWUXFWHGE\SURJUHVVLYHO\HPSOR\LQJFRQWUROWHFKQLTXHVRIYDU\LQJFRVW
DQGHIILFLHQF\XQWLOWKHSROOXWDQWLVDEDWHPHQWLVDVPXFKDVWHFKQLFDOO\IHDVLEOH6LQFH
DEDWHPHQWWHFKQLTXHVDUHQRWDOZD\VFRPSDWLEOH IRUH[DPSOHEXVHVZRXOGQRWEHILWWHG
ZLWKOHDQEXUQ'H12 FRQYHUWHGWR/3*DQGILQDOO\XVHGRQHOHFWULILHGOLQHV GLIIHUHQW
[

VFHQDULRVDUHFRQVWUXFWHGIURPH[LVWLQJFRQWUROWHFKQLTXHV7KUHHVFHQDULRVZHUH
FRQVLGHUHGIRUSUHSDUDWLRQRIWKHFRVWFXUYHV7KHVHDUHOLVWHGLQ7DEOH

7KHPRVWFRVWHIIHFWLYH LQWHUPVRIHIILFLHQF\FRVW LVDSSOLHGILUVWZLWKSURJUHVVLYHO\OHVV


DQGOHVVHIILFLHQWWHFKQLTXHVLQFOXGHGWRDFKLHYHWKHPD[LPXPUHGXFWLRQ,QWKLVZD\WKH
FKDUDFWHULVWLFVKDSHRIWKHFRVWFXUYHLVSURGXFHGZLWKWKHLQLWLDOVORSHFRUUHVSRQGLQJWR
KLJKUHGXFWLRQORZFRVWFKDQJLQJGLUHFWLRQWRJLYHWKHORZUHGXFWLRQKLJKFRVWSDUWRIWKH
FXUYH

,IHDFKWHFKQLTXHLVDVVLJQHGDVLQJOH¶EHVWHVWLPDWH·FRVWDQGHIILFLHQF\WKHQDVLQJOH¶EHVW
HVWLPDWH·FXUYHZLOOEHSURGXFHG,WLVPRUHUHDOLVWLFKRZHYHUWRLQGLFDWHWKHXQFHUWDLQW\LQ
FXUUHQWXQGHUVWDQGLQJE\FRQVLGHULQJHDFKWHFKQLTXHWRKDYHDUDQJHRIFRVWVDQG
HIILFLHQFLHV

(DFKWHFKQLTXHLVDVVLJQHGDPD[LPXPDQGPLQLPXPFRVWDQGDPD[LPXPDQGPLQLPXP
HIILFLHQF\7KHZRUVWFDVHPLJKWLQWKHRU\EHWKHVXPRIDOOWKHPD[LPXPFRVWVDQG
PLQLPXPHIILFLHQFLHV DQGWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJEHVWFDVHWKHVXPRIDOOWKHPLQLPXPFRVWV
DQGPD[LPXPHIILFLHQFLHV )URPDULVNDQDO\VLVSHUVSHFWLYHWKLVLVVRXQOLNHO\DVWREHDQ
XQKHOSIXODVVHVVPHQWRIWKHOLNHO\UDQJHRIRYHUDOOFRVWVDQGHIILFLHQFLHV

7RDFKLHYHDPRUHUHDOLVWLFDVVHVVPHQWDVLPSOHULVNDQDO\VLVPRGHOKDVEHHQDSSOLHG,Q
WKLVPRGHOWKHDFWXDOYDOXHRIWKHFRVWDQGHIILFLHQF\RIHDFKWHFKQLTXHLVFRQVLGHUHGWROLH
ZLWKHTXDOSUREDELOLW\DQ\ZKHUHZLWKLQWKHTXRWHGUDQJH$UDQGRPVDPSOHRISRVVLEOH
FRVWVDQGHIILFLHQFLHVLVWKHQWDNHQWKHRUGHURIWHFKQLTXHVDGMXVWHGWRUHIOHFWWKHLUFRVW
HIIHFWLYHQHVVDQGDFRVWFXUYHFRQVWUXFWHG

7KLVRSHUDWLRQLVUHSHDWHGKXQGUHGVRIWLPHVXQWLODQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIOLNHO\FRVW
FXUYHVLVREWDLQHGZLWKFRQYHUJHQFHRIOHVVWKDQDURXQGWKHPHDQWKSHUFHQWLOHDQG
WKSHUFHQWLOH7KLVRSHUDWLRQLVFDUULHGRXWIRUHDFKRIWKHVFHQDULRVDQGDOOWKHGDWDDUH
WKHQSORWWHGRQDILQDOFRVWFXUYHZKLFKLVXVHGWRGUDZFRQFOXVLRQVDERXWWKHOLNHO\FRVWRI
DFKLHYLQJGLIIHUHQWUHGXFWLRQWDUJHWV7RSHUIRUPWKHVHFDOFXODWLRQVWKH#5LVNVRIWZDUH
SURYLGHGE\WKH3DOLVDGH&RUSRUDWLRQZDVXVHG

2IWKHWKUHHVFHQDULRV6FHQDULR&&DWDO\VWVSURYLGHGWKHPRVWFRVWHIIHFWLYHVROXWLRQIRU
WKHUHTXLUHGHPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQV7KHFRVWFXUYHVIRU6FHQDULR&DUHUHSURGXFHGEHORZ

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 

$($7HFKQRORJ\
7DEOH Scenarios used in the construction of the benzene and CO cost curves.

6FHQDULR 0HDVXUHVLQFOXGHG
6FHQDULR$(OHFWULF9HKLFOHV /HDQ%XUQ'H12 [

7UDIILF5HVWULFWLRQV
,QVSHFWLRQ 0DLQWHQDQFH
5RDG3ULFLQJ
,PSURYHG9HKLFOH'HVLJQ
(PLVVLRQV%DVHG3XUFKDVH7D[
(QJLQH&RQWURO6\VWHPV
6XEVLGLVHG3XEOLF7UDQVSRUW
(OHFWULF9HKLFOHV
6FHQDULR%&1*/3*%XVHV /HDQ%XUQ'H12 [

$GYDQFHG&DWDO\VWV
7UDIILF5HVWULFWLRQV
,QVSHFWLRQ 0DLQWHQDQFH
5RDG3ULFLQJ
,PSURYHG9HKLFOH'HVLJQ
(PLVVLRQV%DVHG3XUFKDVH7D[
)XHO5HIRUPXODWLRQ
&1*/3*/LJKW*RRGV9HKLFOHV
(QJLQH&RQWURO6\VWHPV
6XEVLGLVHG3XEOLF7UDQVSRUW
&1*/3*%XVHV
6FHQDULR&&DWDO\VWV /HDQ%XUQ'H12 [

$GYDQFHG&DWDO\VWV
7UDIILF5HVWULFWLRQV
,QVSHFWLRQ 0DLQWHQDQFH
5RDG3ULFLQJ
,PSURYHG9HKLFOH'HVLJQ
(PLVVLRQV%DVHG3XUFKDVH7D[
)XHO5HIRUPXODWLRQ
(QJLQH&RQWURO6\VWHPV
6XEVLGLVHG3XEOLF7UDQVSRUW

7KHFRVWFXUYHV
7KHFRVWFXUYHVJHQHUDWHGIURPWKHDERYHSURFHGXUHIRUEHQ]HQHDUHUHSURGXFHGLQ)LJXUHV
DQGDQGIRU&2LQ)LJXUHVDQG*LYHQWKHZD\WKDWWKHFXUYHVDUH
JHQHUDWHGWKHLQGLYLGXDOSRLQWVVKRZQGRQRWFRUUHVSRQGWRVSHFLILFPHDVXUHV)LJXUHV
VKRZWKHFXUYHFRQVLGHULQJDOOPHDVXUHVLGHQWLILHGDQG)LJXUHVWKHVDPH
EXWZLWKWKH\D[LVORJJHG)LJXUHVKRZVWKHFXUYHIRUEHQ]HQHZLWKWUDIILF
PDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHVH[FOXGHG,QWKLVFDVHLWZDVIRXQGWKDWUHGXFWLRQRIEHQ]HQH
EH\RQGZDVXQOLNHO\WREHWHFKQLFDOO\IHDVLEOH$OOGDWDDUHLQ(XUR

$SSOLFDWLRQRIWKHFRVWFXUYHV

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
7KHFRVWFXUYHVDUHDSSOLHGE\FRPELQLQJWKHPZLWKGDWDRQHPLVVLRQVYHKLFOHDQGWKH
UHGXFWLRQFDOFXODWHGLQWKHDQDO\VLVRIH[FHHGHQFHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV


$($7HFKQRORJ\
)LJXUHImpact of uncertainty on the cost per vehicle of benzene reduction measures,
with 10 and 90 perrcentiles shown.

1400

1200

1000
Euro per vehicle

800

600

400

200

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% of benzene emission

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
)LJXUHImpact of uncertainty on the cost per vehicle of benzene reduction measures with
10 and 90 perrcentiles shown.

10000

1000
Euro per vehicle

100

10

1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% of benzene emission


$($7HFKQRORJ\
)LJXUHImpact of uncertainty on the cost per vehicle of technical benzene reduction measures,
with 10 and 90 perrcentiles shown.
2500

2000

1500
Euro per vehicle

1000

500

0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
% of benzene emission

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 
)LJXUH Impact of uncertainty on the cost per vehicle of CO reduction measures,
with 10 and 90 perrcentiles shown.

600

500

400
Euro per vehicle

300

200

100

0
0 20 40 60 80 100
% of CO emission


$($7HFKQRORJ\
)LJXUHImpact of uncertainty on the cost per vehicle of CO reduction measures,
with 10 and 90 perrcentiles shown.

1000

100
Euro per vehicle

10

1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
% of CO emission

$($7HFKQRORJ\ 

$($7HFKQRORJ\
 $QDO\WLFDO3URFHVV

 ,1752'8&7,21
7KLVVHFWLRQGHVFULEHVKRZWKHGDWDGHVFULEHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVFKDSWHUVZHUHEURXJKW
WRJHWKHUDQGZKDWVHQVLWLYLWLHVZHUHLQYHVWLJDWHG$OLVWRIWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLGHQWLILHGKHUH
LVJLYHQLQ7DEOH7KHVHDUHUDLVHGDWWKLVSRLQWWRGHPRQVWUDWHLQWKHUHPDLQGHURIWKLV
FKDSWHUWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKGLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVDUHLQWHJUDWHGZLWKWKHDQDO\VLV

7DEOHUncertainties of each stage of the analysis.


6WDJH 8QFHUWDLQWLHV

4XDQWLILFDWLRQRIIXWXUHHPLVVLRQV D 6L]HRIYHKLFOHIOHHW
E 3HQHWUDWLRQRIDGYDQFHGWHFKQRORJLHV
F 9DULDWLRQLQIXHOFRPSRVLWLRQ
G $GRSWLRQRIQRQWHFKQLFDOPHDVXUHVWRUHGXFHFRQJHVWLRQHWF
0RGHOOLQJHIIHFWRIHPLVVLRQVRQ D 0RGHOHUURU
XUEDQEDFNJURXQGSROOXWDQWOHYHOV E 8QFHUWDLQWLHVLQGDWDLQSXWV PHWHRURORJ\WRSRJUDSK\HWF
4XDQWLILFDWLRQRISROOXWDQWOHYHOVLQ D ([WUDSRODWLRQRIPRQLWRUHGGDWDEHWZHHQXUEDQEDFNJURXQG
KRWVSRWV DQGVWUHHWFDQ\RQORFDWLRQV
$VVHVVPHQWRIOLPLWH[FHHGHQFHV VXPRIDERYHHUURUV
,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIFRVWHIIHFWLYH D $YDLODELOLW\RIGDWDRQFRVWVRIQHZWHFKQRORJLFDOPHDVXUHVIRU
PHDVXUHVIRUDEDWLQJSROOXWDQWHPLVVLRQV SROOXWDQWDEDWHPHQW
E $YDLODELOLW\RIGDWDRQGLUHFWFRVWVDQGVHFRQGDU\FRVWVDQG
EHQHILWVRIQRQWHFKQLFDORSWLRQV
F 8QFHUWDLQW\LQWKHUDWHRIWHFKQRORJLFDOGHYHORSPHQWIRU
LQWURGXFWLRQRIQHZWHFKQRORJLHV
G 3RVVLEOHHUURULQGLVFRXQWUDWH
'HVFULSWLRQRIH[SRVXUHRIWKH D $VVXPSWLRQVRQDYHUDJHEHKDYLRXURIWKHSRSXODWLRQ
SRSXODWLRQ E $VVXPSWLRQVUHJDUGLQJWKHDJHDQGHPSOR\PHQWVWUXFWXUHRI
WKHSRSXODWLRQ
4XDQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHGLUHFWLPSDFWVRI D ([WUDSRODWLRQRIGDWDIURPVWXGLHVRIRFFXSDWLRQDOH[SRVXUHVWR
EHQ]HQH DPELHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
E $VVHVVPHQWRIWKHIUDFWLRQRIDGXOWOHXNDHPLDVWKDWDUHIDWDO
9DOXDWLRQRIKHDOWKHIIHFWV D 3RVVLEOHOLPLWVRIDSSOLFDELOLW\RIWKHYDOXHRIVWDWLVWLFDOOLIHRU
\HDUVRIOLIHORVWDSSURDFKHV
E (UURULQGLVFRXQWUDWHV
F $VVHVVPHQWRIWKHFRVWVRIWUHDWPHQWIRUFDQFHUV
G ([WUDSRODWLRQRIYDOXDWLRQWR(8OHYHO
,QWHJUDWLRQRIVHFRQGDU\FRVWVDQG D ,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIVHFRQGDU\FRVWVDQGEHQHILWV
EHQHILWVRIDEDWHPHQWRSWLRQV E 4XDQWLILFDWLRQRIDVVRFLDWHGLPSDFWV
F 4XDQWLILFDWLRQRIDVVRFLDWHGYDOXHV
([WUDSRODWLRQIURPWKHWKUHHFLWLHVWR D 5HSUHVHQWDWLYHVRIWKHWKUHHFLWLHVVWXGLHGLQGHWDLO
WKH(8 E 5REXVWQHVVRIH[WUDSRODWLRQE\&2OHYHOVDQGSRSXODWLRQ
F 6XPRIDERYHHUURUV
+XPDQHUURU
1RWHVRQ7DEOH

7KHEHQ]HQHH[SRVXUHUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQGUDZVRQRFFXSDWLRQDOKHDOWKGDWDUHTXLULQJDVVXPSWLRQVWREH
PDGHDERXWPRYHPHQWDQGVRPHRWKHUDVSHFWVRISHUVRQDOEHKDYLRXU+RZHYHULQYLHZRIWKHDVVXPSWLRQ
WKDWWKHH[SRVXUHUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQLVOLQHDULWLVQRWQHFHVVDU\WRDFFRXQWIRUVPRNLQJEHKDYLRXU²VHH
&KDSWHU

$($7HFKQRORJ\


7KHWHUP¶VHFRQGDU\EHQHILWV·UHODWHVWRDOOHIIHFWVRIWKHSROOXWLRQDEDWHPHQWPHDVXUHVLGHQWLILHGLQWKLVVWXG\
RWKHUWKDQWKHGLUHFWHIIHFWVRIH[SRVXUHWREHQ]HQH

 '(7(50,1$7,212)$5($62)(;&(6632//87,21
7KLVZRUNKDVUHOLHGWRDODUJHH[WHQWVRIDURQWKHODUJHYROXPHRIGDWDJHQHUDWHGE\$23,
7KLVDOORZHGWKLVVWXG\WRWDNHDGYDQWDJHRIPXFKPRUHGHWDLOHGFLW\DLUTXDOLW\PRGHOOLQJ
WKDQZRXOGRWKHUZLVHKDYHEHHQSRVVLEOH,QWXUQWKLVDOORZVWKHUHVRXUFHVDYDLODEOHWRWKLV
VWXG\WRLQYHVWLJDWHLQPRUHGHWDLOLVVXHVVXFKDVFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQKRWVSRWVDQGYDULDWLRQ
LQSRSXODWLRQH[SRVXUHDQGDOVRWRXQGHUWDNHPRUHVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VHV5HOLDQFHRQ$23
GDWDPHDQVWKDWWKHDVVXPSWLRQVIROORZHGLQWKLVVWXG\VKRXOGEHYLUWXDOO\LGHQWLFDOZLWK
WKHH[FHSWLRQRIWKHPDJQLWXGHRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHDEDWHPHQWEHWZHHQQRZDQGWKHWDUJHW
GDWHV DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\ JLYHQWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHGLUHFWLYHVWKDWIROORZHGIURP
$23,

 $VVHVVPHQWRIHPLVVLRQVDQGXUEDQEDFNJURXQGOHYHOV

'DWDZHUHSURYLGHGRQ12 HPLVVLRQVLQLQHDFKJULGFHOORID[ [NP FHOO


[

GRPDLQIRUWKHVHYHQ$XWR2LOFLWLHV $WKHQV&RORJQHWKH+DJXH/RQGRQ/\RQV0DGULG
DQG0LODQ  $XWR2LO 7KHVHGDWDZHUHGLVDJJUHJDWHGWRWKHIROORZLQJVRXUFH
W\SHV
• 3DVVHQJHUFDUVJDVROLQH
• 3DVVHQJHUFDUVGLHVHO
• /LJKWGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHV
• 0HGLXPDQGKHDY\GHOLYHU\YHKLFOHV
• %XVHV
• 0RWRUF\FOHV
• 6PDOOVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHV
• 0HGLXPVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHV
• /DUJHVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHV

6LPLODUO\GDWDZHUHSURYLGHGRQWKHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI12 LQDWWULEXWDEOHWRHDFK
[

VRXUFHLQHDFKJULGFHOO7KH$LU4XDOLW\5HSRUWRI$23, (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,
 SURYLGHVFRQYHUVLRQIDFWRUVIRU12 &212 92&DQG92&EHQ]HQHIRUHDFK
[ [

FLW\DOORZLQJFDOFXODWLRQRIOHYHOVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHLQHDFKJULGFHOORIHDFKFLW\

(PLVVLRQVDQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQWKHIXWXUH  ZHUHSUHGLFWHGXVLQJ¶DWWHQXDWLRQIDFWRUV·


DJDLQVXSSOLHGIURP$XWR2LO (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ 7KHVHIDFWRUVGHPRQVWUDWH
KRZHPLVVLRQVRIHDFKSROOXWDQW 12 &2DQGEHQ]HQH IURPHDFKRIWKHQLQHVRXUFHV
[

LGHQWLILHGDERYHZRXOGEHUHGXFHGE\WKH\HDUVDQGLQWKHDEVHQFHRIIXUWKHU
DFWLRQWRFRQWUROHPLVVLRQV)XUWKHUDWWHQXDWLRQIDFWRUVZHUHFDOFXODWHGLQWKLVVWXG\WR
GHVFULEHWKHHIIHFWVRIWKHSURSRVHG$XWR2LO'LUHFWLYHVRQYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQVDQGIXHO
TXDOLW\GUDZLQJRQQXPHURXVVRXUFHVRIGDWD (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,
(3()(XQGDWHG7RXFKH5RVV(&'*;,D DQGRIWKH&RPPLVVLRQ·VSURSRVDOV
RQOLPLWVIRU12 62 30 DQGOHDG &20  ILQDODQG,90 IRU
[  

FRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKHGDWDVHWVIRUWKHVFHQDULRVGHVFULEHGLQ&KDSWHU7KHHIIHFWRIWKH


$($7HFKQRORJ\
&RPPLVVLRQ·VSURSRVDOVRQDLUTXDOLW\IRUWKHVHIRXUSROOXWDQWVLVPRUHGHSHQGHQWRQORFDO
FRQGLWLRQVWKDQWKHHIIHFWRIWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHSURSRVHG$XWR2LO'LUHFWLYHVLQFLWLHVZKHUH
DLUTXDOLW\LVDOUHDG\SUHGLFWHGWRPHHWWKHOLPLWVQRIXUWKHUDFWLRQZLOOEHQHFHVVDU\2IWKH
WKUHHFLWLHVVWXGLHGKHUHOLNHO\H[FHHGHQFHVZHUHRQO\HVWLPDWHGIRU$WKHQVLQWKHHFRQRPLF
HYDOXDWLRQVWXG\XQGHUWDNHQE\,90  7RUHGXFHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVWRDOHYHOZKHUHE\
OLPLWVZRXOGQRWEHH[FHHGHGLQ$WKHQVWKH,90VWXG\IRXQGWKDWWZRPHDVXUHVZRXOGEH
QHHGHGURDGSULFLQJDQGWKHXVHRIEXVHVUXQQLQJRQFRPSUHVVHGQDWXUDOJDV &1* RU
OLTXHILHGSHWUROHXPJDV /3* )RUWKLVVWXG\LWZDVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHUHZRXOGEHD
SUHIHUHQFHIRUXVLQJ&1*UDWKHUWKDQ/3*EDVHGRQGDWDIURP(768  ZKLFK
IRXQGWKDWWKHXVHRI/3*ZRXOGEHOLNHO\WRLQFUHDVHHPLVVLRQVRI&2 7DEOH 8VHRI
&1*DSSHDUVWRKDYHQRHIIHFWRQ&2HPLVVLRQVFRPSDUHGWRWKHXVHRIGLHVHO,WZRXOG
LQFUHDVHHPLVVLRQVRIK\GURFDUERQVWKRXJKDVVRFLDWHGEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQVVKRXOGEH
QHJOLJLEOH QRWHWKDWWKHHVWLPDWHJLYHQLQWKH7DEOHLQFOXGHVPHWKDQHHPLVVLRQV DQGWKHUH
ZRXOGDOVREH&2 VDYLQJV5RDGSULFLQJZDVHVWLPDWHGE\,90WRFDXVHDUHGXFWLRQ


LQHPLVVLRQV7KLVZDVDSSOLHGWRDOOVRXUFHW\SHVH[FHSWEXVHV,WLVDVVXPHGKHUHWKDWWKH
LQWURGXFWLRQRIURDGSULFLQJOHDGVWRDPRGDOVKLIWIURPSULYDWHWUDQVSRUWWREXVHVIRUSHRSOH
WUDYHOOLQJLQWRFLWLHVDQGPRUHHIILFLHQWXVHRIGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHV

7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRILQXVHHPLVVLRQVIURPQHZEXVHVUXQQLQJRQGLIIHUHQWIXHOV
(768 

'LHVHO &1* /3*


&2 
  
&2   
+\GURFDUERQV   
12 [
  
30 
  

7KHVHQVLWLYLWLHVLGHQWLILHGIRUWKLVSDUWRIWKHDQDO\VLVDUHQRZGHVFULEHG7KHH[WHQWWR
ZKLFKWKH\ZHUHLQFRUSRUDWHGLQWRWKHVXEVHTXHQWDQDO\VLVODUJHO\UHIOHFWVWKHZLVKHVRIWKH
:RUNLQJDQG6WHHULQJJURXSVZLWKPRVWHPSKDVLVEHLQJJLYHQWRWKHDVVHVVPHQWRI
EHQ]HQHLQKRWVSRWV

 6HQVLWLYLW\IURPVL]HRIYHKLFOHIOHHWDQGSHQHWUDWLRQRIDGYDQFHG
WHFKQRORJLHV
,QWKHDEVHQFHRIIXUWKHUOHJLVODWLRQRUWKHZLGHVSUHDGXVHRIORFDOPHDVXUHVWRUHGXFH
FRQJHVWLRQLQFUHDVHGVL]HRIWKHYHKLFOHIOHHWVHHPVLQHYLWDEOH7KHDVVXPSWLRQVIURP$23
, (&'*;, RQWUDIILFJURZWKIRUWKHWKUHHFLWLHVFRQVLGHUHGLQWKLVVWXG\DUHVKRZQ
LQ7DEOH

7DEOH3UHGLFWHGWUDIILFJURZWKLQ$WKHQV&RORJQHDQG/RQGRQ (&
'*;, 
&LW\JURZWK
&LW\ &DUV /'9+'9 %XVHV :
$WKHQV    

$($7HFKQRORJ\

&RORJQH    
/RQGRQ    

&KDQJHLQWKHVL]HRIWKHYHKLFOHIOHHWLVVXEMHFWWRDODUJHQXPEHURIIDFWRUVDQGVRWKHWUXH
ILJXUHIRUWUDIILFJURZWKPD\YDU\VLJQLILFDQWO\DURXQGWKRVHVKRZQKHUH7KHVHIDFWRUV
LQFOXGHHFRQRPLFJURZWKSURYLVLRQRIVXEVWLWXWHWUDQVSRUWRSWLRQVWHFKQRORJLFDO
GHYHORSPHQWVVW\OLVWLFGHYHORSPHQWVDQGVRRQ7KHQHWHIIHFWRIFKDQJHVLQWKHVL]HRIWKH
YHKLFOHIOHHWLVHTXDOO\FRPSOH[,QFUHDVHGQXPEHUVRIYHKLFOHVZRXOGEHH[SHFWHGWROHDG
WRLQFUHDVHGFRQJHVWLRQORZHUVSHHGVDQGWKXVPRUHSROOXWLRQ+RZHYHUWKLVFRXOGEH
EDODQFHGE\DUHGXFWLRQLQDYHUDJHYHKLFOHDJHLQWKHPRUHDIIOXHQWXUEDQFHQWUHV
SDUWLFXODUO\LIWKHUHLVDQHWRXWIORZRIROGHUYHKLFOHVWRDUHDVZLWKORZHUWUDIILFGHQVLWLHV

3HQHWUDWLRQRIVRPHDGYDQFHGWHFKQRORJLHVVXFKDVYHKLFOHVSRZHUHGE\IXHOFHOOVFRXOGDOVR
KDYHDVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFW7KLVLVQRWDFFRXQWHGIRUKHUHIRUQXPHURXVUHDVRQVWKHPRVW
LPSRUWDQWUHODWLQJWRWKHSULFHRIQHZWHFKQRORJLHVDWLQWURGXFWLRQDFFHSWDQFHE\
FRQVXPHUVRIQHZWHFKQRORJ\GDWHRILQWURGXFWLRQHWF0RUHLQIRUPDWLRQPD\EH
JHQHUDWHGRQWKLVLVVXHWKURXJKWKHVHFRQG$XWR2LO3URJUDPPH

2YHUDOOIRUWKHSXUSRVHRILOOXVWUDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWRIYDULDWLRQLQYHKLFOHIOHHWVDUDQJHRI
±DURXQGWKHFKDQJHVVKRZQDERYHLVWDNHQIRUWKHWKUHHFLWLHV7KLVWUDQVODWHVWRDQ
HUURULQSUHGLFWLRQRIEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQVRYHUDOORIRQO\DERXW± RIWKHPHDQ
FKDQJHLQIOHHWVL]H 7KLVUDQJHLVQRWLQWHQGHGWRWDNHDFFRXQWRIWKHHIIHFWVRIWKH
SRWHQWLDOLQWURGXFWLRQRIQRQWHFKQLFDOPHDVXUHVWRUHGXFHFRQJHVWLRQZKLFKLVGHDOWZLWK
LQWKHFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVDQDO\VLV

 6HQVLWLYLW\WRYDULDWLRQLQIXHOFRPSRVLWLRQ
7KHUHLVZLGHYDULDWLRQUHJDUGLQJIXHOFRPSRVLWLRQZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHFRQWHQWRIEHQ]HQH
DQGEHQ]HQHSUHFXUVRUV)RUH[DPSOH%DWHVHWDO  UHSRUWHGEHQ]HQH YY UDQJLQJ
EHWZHHQDQGIRUVDPSOHVWDNHQDWDQXPEHURIJDVROLQHVWDWLRQVDURXQG(XURSH
+RZHYHUWKHOHJLVODWLRQGHYHORSHGWKURXJK$23,ZLOOUHGXFHWKLVYDULDWLRQVXEVWDQWLDOO\
WKHOLPLWEHLQJVHWWR $UHYLHZRILQIRUPDWLRQJLYHQE\(&'*;, 
VXJJHVWHGWKDWDUHDVRQDEOHHVWLPDWHRIWKHHUURULQWKHTXDQWLILFDWLRQRIEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQV
UHODWLYHWRWKHDVVXPSWLRQVPDGHRQIXHOTXDOLW\ZRXOGEHOLNHO\WREHRIWKHRUGHURI
(IIHFWVRQEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQVIURPYDULDWLRQLQWKHTXDOLW\RIGLHVHOIXHODUHOHVVVLJQLILFDQW
DQGKHQFHDUHQRWFRQVLGHUHG

 6HQVLWLYLW\WRPRGHOOLQJHIIHFWRIHPLVVLRQVRQXUEDQEDFNJURXQG
SROOXWDQWOHYHOV
2QHRIWKHUHDVRQVIRUUHOLDQFHXSRQWKHDSSURDFKXVHGXQGHU$23,LQRXUVWXG\LVWKDW
WKLVDSSURDFKKDVEHHQZLGHO\GLVFXVVHGE\WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ0HPEHU6WDWHVDQG
RWKHULQWHUHVWHGSDUWLHV/LNHDQ\PRGHOOLQJH[HUFLVHLWZDVLQHYLWDEO\SURQHWRHUURU
+RZHYHUUHVXOWVDSSHDUHGWRWLHLQUHDVRQDEO\ZHOOZLWKH[SHFWDWLRQ)XUWKHULQIRUPDWLRQ
PD\EHFRPHDYDLODEOHGXULQJ$23,,6HSDUDWHDFFRXQWKDVQRWEHHQWDNHQRIHUURULQ
PRGHOOLQJSURFHGXUHVDQGLQSXWVKHUH


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 &KDUDFWHULVDWLRQRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQKRWVSRWV

1H[WFDOFXODWLRQZDVPDGHRIOHYHOVLQKRWVSRWV6LPSOHVWDWLVWLFDOUHODWLRQVKLSVZHUH
WDNHQIURPDYDLODEOHPHDVXUHPHQWGDWD)URPWKH$3,6GDWDEDVH VHH$SSHQGL[ WKH
IROORZLQJIDFWRUVZHUHGHULYHGIURPPHDVXUHPHQWVPDGHRI&2FRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQ8WUHFKW
DQG$WKHQV7KHVHZHUHWKHRQO\WZRFLWLHVZLWKVLWHVWKDWPHWQHFHVVDU\FULWHULDUHODWLQJWR
YDULDWLRQLQWUDIILFGHQVLW\KHLJKWRIPRQLWRULQJSRLQWVHWF7KHUHZDVQRGDWDRQEHQ]HQH
LQWKHGDWDEDVHEXWJLYHQWKDWWKHPDLQVRXUFHRIERWKLVWUDIILFLWLVDVVXPHGKHUHWKDWWKH
SURSRUWLRQDOYDULDWLRQLQWKHDQQXDOPHDQ&2EHWZHHQXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGKRWVSRWV
ZDVVLPLODUWRWKHYDULDWLRQLQDQQXDOPHDQEHQ]HQH7KHVWDWLVWLFVZHUHDVIROORZV

$($7HFKQRORJ\

0D[KRXUFRQFHQWUDWLRQV DSSOLFDEOHWR&2
0HDQSHDNXUEDQEDFNJURXQG 
8SSHUFRQILGHQFHOLPLWIRUSHDNXUEDQEDFNJURXQG 
+LJKHVWSHDNXUEDQEDFNJURXQG 
$QQXDODYHUDJHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV DSSOLFDEOHWREHQ]HQH 
0HDQSHDNXUEDQEDFNJURXQG 
8SSHUFRQILGHQFHOLPLWSHDNXUEDQEDFNJURXQG 
+LJKHVWSHDNXUEDQEDFNJURXQG 

9DULDWLRQDURXQGWKHVHILJXUHVPD\EHFRQVLGHUDEOH:HKDYHVRXJKWWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHIDFW
WKDWHPLVVLRQVLQKRWVSRWVZLOOIDOOPRUHVLJQLILFDQWO\WKDQLQWKHXUEDQEDFNJURXQG
EHFDXVHRIWKHH[WHQWRIHPLVVLRQFRQWUROVRQWUDIILFIROORZLQJDQDO\VLVE\YDQ(HUHQV 
SHUVRQDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQ %DVHGRQWKHVHDGGLWLRQDOUHVXOWVDPXOWLSOLHURIZDVDGRSWHG
IRUWKHEDVHFDVHDQGIRUDQXSSHUERXQGFRUUHVSRQGLQJWRWKHFRQILGHQFHOLPLW
FDOFXODWHGDERYH7KLVPLJKWEHWDNHQDVUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIH[WUHPHZHDWKHUFRQGLWLRQV
ZKLFKFRXOGEHSDUWLFXODUO\LPSRUWDQWZHUHWKHOLPLWVLQWKHGLUHFWLYHWREHDJUHHGZLWKQR
H[FHHGHQFHDOORZHG

)XUWKHUUHYLHZRIGDWDKDVQRWLGHQWLILHGRWKHUVRXUFHVZKHUHWKHVDPSOLQJLQWHQVLW\ZRXOG
DSSHDUWRSURYLGHDVUREXVWDQHVWLPDWHRIWKHUDWLRLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVEHWZHHQEDFNJURXQG
DQGSHDNOHYHOV$UHYLHZRIUHFHQW8.PRQLWRULQJGDWDVKRZHGOLWWOHSDWWHUQLQWKHGDWD
7DEOH 

7KH3RVLWLRQ3DSHU ,,$ JLYHVDGGLWLRQDOGDWDIRUEHQ]HQHOHYHOVREVHUYHGLQ


(XURSHDQFLWLHVLQQLQHFRXQWULHVVHYHQRIZKLFKLQFOXGHGDWDIRUXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQG
SHDNFRQFHQWUDWLRQV7KHVHGDWDDQGWKHUHVSHFWLYHUDWLRVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH7KH
DYHUDJHUDWLRRISHDNWRXUEDQEDFNJURXQGFRQFHQWUDWLRQDFURVVDOORIWKHVHFLWLHVLVLQWKH
UDQJHZLWKDPHDQYDOXHRIZKLFKLVLQJRRGDJUHHPHQWZLWKWKHILJXUH
LGHQWLILHGDERYH0RUHH[WUHPHUHVXOWVDUHSRVVLEOHWKHKLJKHVWUDWLRLGHQWLILHGEHLQJ
+RZHYHULWLVSUREDEOHLQVXFKFDVHVWKDWWKHSHDNDQGXUEDQEDFNJURXQGORFDWLRQV
DUHQRWWUXO\FRPSDUDEOHWKH\FRXOGIRUH[DPSOHEHVHSDUDWHGE\DODUJHGLVWDQFH


$($7HFKQRORJ\
7DEOHUK benzene concentration data (1996).
6LWH 7\SH $QQXDOPHDQ 0D[LPXP WK
FRQFHQWUDWLRQ KRXUO\DYHUDJH 3HUFHQWLOHRI
µJP µJP KRXUO\
DYHUDJHVµJP
%HOIDVW6RXWK 8UEDQ   
EDFNJURXQG
%LUPLQJKDP 8UEDQ   
(DVW EDFNJURXQG
%ULVWRO(DVW 8UEDQ   
EDFNJURXQG
&DUGLII(DVW 8UEDQ   
EDFNJURXQG
(GLQEXUJK 8UEDQ   
0HGLFDO6FKRRO EDFNJURXQG
+DUZHOO 5XUDO   

/HHGV 8UEDQ   


3RWWHUQHZWRQ EDFNJURXQG
/LYHUSRRO6SHNH 8UEDQ   
EDFNJURXQG
/RQGRQ(OWKDP 6XEXUEDQ   

/RQGRQ8&/ 5RDGVLGH   

0LGGOHVERURXJ 8UEDQ   


K LQGXVWULDO

6RXWKDPSWRQ 8UEDQ&HQWUH   


&HQWUH

$($7HFKQRORJ\

7DEOH8UEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGSHDNEHQ]HQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQVHYHUDO(XURSHDQFLWLHV
,,$ 

%HQ]HQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQGDWD
8UEDQ 3HDN 5DWLRRI 6RXUFH
EDFNJURXQG 
µJP 3HDN8UEDQ WDEOHLQ
µJP %DFNJURXQ SRVLWLRQ
G SDSHU

%DVTXH 5DQGRP    ;9


UHJLRQ 6DPSOLQJ
K
*UDEVDPSOLQJ    ;9
LQVWDQWDQHRXV

3DULV 6LWH6LWH    ;9,,
6LWH6LWH    ;9,,
)ORUHQFH 5RVHOOL%REROL    )LJ
5RVHOOL%DVVL    )LJ
*HUPDQ\ )UDQNIXUW     ;,9
)UDQNIXUW     ;,9
0DQQKHLP     ;,9
0DQQKHLP     ;,9
+DOOH    ;,9
0QFKHQ    ;,9
(VVHQ    ;,9
%HUOLQ    ;,9
$OOFLWLHV    ;,9
$XVWULD 6HYHUDOVLWHV    ;9,,
%UXVVHOV VLWHV    ;9,,
,WDO\ FLWLHV    ;9,,
*HUPDQ\ FLWLHV    ;9,,
6ZHGHQ FLWLHV    ;9,,
1HWKHUODQG FLWLHV    ;9,,
V
8. FLWLHV    ;9,,

 &RQYHUVLRQRI&2OHYHOV

$OOGDWDJHQHUDWHGIURPWKHLQIRUPDWLRQVXSSOLHGIURP$XWR2LO  RQFRQFHQWUDWLRQV


ZHUHJLYHQDVDQQXDODYHUDJHV)RU&2WKHVHQHHGHGWREHFRQYHUWHGWRDOORZFRQVLGHUDWLRQ
RIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSZLWKWKHKRXUOLPLWYDOXHVWKDWDUHXQGHULQYHVWLJDWLRQLQWKLVVWXG\
7KHIROORZLQJZHUHFDOFXODWHG


$($7HFKQRORJ\
• PJP DVWKHPD[LPXPKRXUDYHUDJHHTXLYDOHQWWRPJP DVDQQXDODYHUDJH
 

IURPYDQGHQ+RXW
• PJP DVWKHVHFRQGKLJKHVWKRXUDYHUDJHLQDQ\\HDUZDVHVWLPDWHGWREHHTXLYDOHQW


WRPJP DVDQDQQXDODYHUDJH HVWLPDWHGIURPDQDO\VLVRI$3,6GDWD 




7RDOORZFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIWKHVFDOHRIWKHSUREOHPLQHDFKFLW\WKHQXPEHURIJULGFHOOVLQ
ZKLFKH[FHHGHQFHRIWKHOLPLWYDOXHVXQGHULQYHVWLJDWLRQZDVGHWHFWHGZHUHUHFRUGHG
5HTXLUHGHPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQVZHUHFDOFXODWHGE\GLYLGLQJWKHKLJKHVWUHFRUGHGH[FHHGHQFH
E\WKHOLPLWYDOXHH[FHHGHGDQGUHYLVHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQPDSVFDOFXODWHG WKHVHEHLQJXVHGIRU
DVVHVVPHQWRIEHQHILWVEHORZ 7RDOORZSRVVLEOHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI
PHDVXUHVDWGLIIHUHQWVFDOHVDFFRUGLQJWRKRZVHYHUHDQGKRZZLGHVSUHDGH[FHHGHQFHVZHUH
HVWLPDWHGWREHWKHFRQWULEXWLRQWRHPLVVLRQVIURPHDFKVRXUFHW\SHFRQVLGHUHGZDV
FDOFXODWHGIRU
 WKHFHOOZLWKKLJKHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQ LIOLPLWVZHUHH[FHHGHGLQWKHVFHQDULREHLQJ
FRQVLGHUHG
 DOOFHOOVLQZKLFKOLPLWVZHUHH[FHHGHG
 DOOFHOOVLQWKHJULGGHGGRPDLQIRUVFHQDULRVZKHUHOLPLWVZHUHH[FHHGHG

 $66(660(172)7+(&26762)0((7,1*7+(',5(&7,9(
&RVW GDWD ZHUHUHSRUWHG LQ &KDSWHU   7KH\ LQFOXGH GDWD IRU ERWK VWDWLRQDU\ DQG PRELOH
VRXUFHVWKRXJKWKHPDLQFRQFHUQRIWKHVWXG\LVXQGRXEWHGO\WKHODWWHU7KHHIIHFWLYHQHVV
RIHDFKPHDVXUHKDVEHHQHVWLPDWHGDOORZLQJPHDVXUHVWREHUDQNHGE\FRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVV
7KHVH PHDVXUHV DUH WKHQ LQWURGXFHG XQWLO WKH UHTXLUHG HPLVVLRQ UHGXFWLRQ LV DWWDLQHG
WDNLQJDFFRXQWRIWKHOLNHO\SHQHWUDWLRQRIPHDVXUHVE\WKH\HDUV IRU&2 DQG
IRUEHQ]HQH 

*HQHULFFRVWHVWLPDWHVDUHXVHGKHUHDVWKHUHPLWRIWKHVWXG\GRHVQRWSURYLGHIRUWKH
FROOHFWLRQRUDQDO\VLVRIVLWHVSHFLILFGDWD7KHGLVFRXQWUDWHXVHGLQWKLVVWXG\IRUWKH
SULYDWHFRVWDVVHVVPHQWLVLQOLQHZLWKWKHUDWHXVHGIRU$23,,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDW
RQO\PHDVXUHVIRUZKLFKFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVGDWDDUHDYDLODEOHKDYHEHHQFRQVLGHUHGDQGWKDW
WKHUHDUHVLJQLILFDQWXQFHUWDLQWLHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKLVGDWDWKXVWKHFRVWVSURYLGHGKHUHDUH
RQO\DEURDGLQGLFDWLRQRIWKHOLNHO\UDQJHRISRVVLEOHFRPSOLDQFHFRVWV

,QIRUPDWLRQRQWKHFRVWVRIPRQLWRULQJV\VWHPVKDYHQRZEHHQFROOHFWHGDQGQHHGWREH
FRQVLGHUHGKHUH+RZHYHUWKHFRVWVRIPRQLWRULQJERWKEHQ]HQHDQG&2DUHORJLFDOO\VSOLW
EHWZHHQWKHQGGDXJKWHU'LUHFWLYHDQGWKHR]RQH'LUHFWLYHZKLFKUHTXLUHVPRQLWRULQJRI
WKHSUHFXUVRUVRISKRWRR[LGDQWV

 7+(%(1(),76$1$/<6,6
7KHLPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWDQGPRQHWDU\HYDOXDWLRQRIWKHEHQHILWVUHOLHVWRDODUJHH[WHQWRQ
WKH([WHUQ(IUDPHZRUNIRUH[WHUQDOLWLHVDVVHVVPHQWGHYHORSHGDVDFROODERUDWLYHHIIRUWRID
QXPEHURIVFLHQWLILFLQVWLWXWLRQVVXSSRUWHGE\'*;,,,WVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWWKH([WHUQ(
PHWKRGRORJ\KDVDGYDQFHGFRQVLGHUDEO\VLQFHWKHVHULHVRIUHSRUWVSXEOLVKHGDWWKHHQGRI

$($7HFKQRORJ\

$UHYLVHGPHWKRGRORJ\UHSRUWRQWKHVWXG\LVGXHWREHSXEOLVKHGVKRUWO\ (XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQ 7KHRYHUDOOIUDPHZRUNIRUWKHEHQHILWVDVVHVVPHQWLVDORJLFDOVWHSZLVH
SURJUHVVLRQIURPTXDQWLILFDWLRQRISROOXWDQWORDGVWRYDOXDWLRQ )LJXUH 


$($7HFKQRORJ\
4XDQWLI\HPLVVLRQV →EDVHGRQGDWDRQYHKLFOHIOHHWV
DQGVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHV

0RGHOSROOXWDQWGLVSHUVLRQ

3ROOXWLRQORDG →&RQFHQWUDWLRQGHSRVLWLRQ

6WRFNDWULVN →'LVWULEXWLRQRISHRSOHHWF

([SRVXUHUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQV →5DWHRIGDPDJHXQLWSROOXWDQW

,PSDFWDVVHVVPHQW →&KDQJHLQPRUWDOLW\HWF

9DOXDWLRQ →:LOOLQJQHVVWRSD\

)LJXUH'LDJUDPPDWLFUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHLPSDFWSDWKZD\DSSURDFK

7KHILUVWVWDJHRIWKHDQDO\VLVZDVWRPDSSRSXODWLRQRIHDFKFLW\RQWKH[NPJULGXVHG
IRUHDFKFLW\E\$XWR2LO3RSXODWLRQGDWDIRUWKHWKUHHFLWLHVZHUHWDNHQIURPFHQVXV
UHFRUGV7KHDQDO\VLVRIKHDOWKHIIHFWVDQGKHDOWKFRVWVLQHDFKFHOOXVHVDVLPSOH
PXOWLSOLFDWLYHDSSURDFK

>&RQFHQWUDWLRQ@[>SRSXODWLRQ@[>ULVNIDFWRU@[>YDOXHSHUFDVH@

$($7HFKQRORJ\

)URPWKHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVRIWKHDGKRF:RUNLQJJURXSFRQYHQHGE\WKH:RUNLQJJURXS
RQ%HQ]HQHDOLIHWLPHULVNIDFWRURI[ WR[ SHUµJP ZDVXVHG$VVXPLQJD
  

\HDUOLIHH[SHFWDQF\WKLVFRQYHUWVWRDUDQJHIRUWKHDQQXDOULVNIDFWRURI[ WR


[ SHUµJP 7KHULVNVKRZQLVWKHHVWLPDWHGULVNRIFRQWUDFWLQJFDQFHUUDWKHUWKDQWKH


 

ULVNRIG\LQJIURPFDQFHU6HSDUDWHDFFRXQWKDVQRWEHHQWDNHQRIVPRNHUVDQGWKRVHLQ
RFFXSDWLRQVWKDWDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKKHLJKWHQHGH[SRVXUHWREHQ]HQH7KHOLQHDUQDWXUHRI
WKHUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQIRFXVHVWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIEHQHILWVRQFKDQJHVLQDLUTXDOLW\

)RUYDOXDWLRQWZRVLWXDWLRQVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGRQHZKHUHDOOWKRVHFRQWUDFWLQJFDQFHUGLH
IURPLWDQGWKHRWKHUZKHUHRQO\GLHWKHRWKHUUHFRYHULQJDIWHUWUHDWPHQW*LYHQ
WKHOLNHOLKRRGWKDWGHDWKVIURPFDQFHUZRXOGEHOLNHO\WRVKRUWHQOLIHFRQVLGHUDEO\ LHE\D
SHULRGRIVRPH\HDUV WKHYDOXHRIVWDWLVWLFDOOLIH 926/ DSSURDFKZDVDGRSWHGIRU
PRUWDOLW\DVVHVVPHQW7KH926/XVHGKHUHLVDYHUDJHGRYHUDODUJHQXPEHURIVWXGLHV VHH
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQE &RQYHUWHGWRYDOXHVSURYLGHVDQHVWLPDWHRI
0(XURIRUHDFKFDVHWRZKLFKLVDGGHG(XURIRUFRVWRILOOQHVVUHODWLQJWRFDQFHU
7KLVPDNHVDWRWDOYDOXHRI0(XURSHUFDVHDQGLVWDNHQDVDQXSSHUHVWLPDWH7RJLYH
DORZHUHVWLPDWHLWZDVDVVXPHGWKDWRIWKHFDQFHUVDUHIDWDODQGRIWKRVHDIIHFWHG
UHFRYHUDIWHUWUHDWPHQW7KLVSURYLGHVDQDYHUDJHHVWLPDWHRI0(XURFDVH

$SSOLHGWRERWKXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGSHDNFRQFHQWUDWLRQVWKLVSURYLGHVDUDQJHIRUHDFK
VFHQDULR7KLVUDQJHFDQEHUHILQHGE\GHYHORSLQJDPRGHORIOLIHVW\OHVXJJHVWLQJKRZ
PXFKWLPHSHRSOHVSHQGLQDUHDVVXEMHFWWRXUEDQEDFNJURXQGOHYHOVDQGLQKRWVSRWV D
PRGHOZDVGHYHORSHGDERYHLQ&KDSWHU 7KHDQDO\VLVFRQVLGHUVWKHEHQHILWVRIDXQLIRUP
UHGXFWLRQLQHPLVVLRQVIURPHDFKVRXUFHW\SHDFURVVWKHHQWLUHJULGGHGGRPDLQDQGWKH
VDPHXQLIRUPUHGXFWLRQLQHPLVVLRQVIURPHDFKVRXUFHW\SHEXWRQO\LQFHOOVLQZKLFK
H[FHHGHQFHVDUHGHWHFWHG7KHUHTXLUHGUHGXFWLRQLQHPLVVLRQVZDVHVWLPDWHGDVWKHUDWLRRI
KLJKHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQHVWLPDWHGLQDQ\FHOOGLYLGHGE\WKHOLPLWYDOXHH[FHHGHG

)RU&2WKHULVNIDFWRUVGHVFULEHGLQ&KDSWHUDERYHDUHWDNHQIURPUHFHQWHSLGHPLRORJLFDO
VWXGLHV$WWKHSUHVHQWWLPHRQO\RQHRIWKHVHIXQFWLRQVIRUFRQJHVWLYHKHDUWIDLOXUH
&+) DSSHDUVWREHUHDVRQDEO\UREXVW
,QFUHDVHLQDQQXDODGPLVVLRQVIRU&+) [ SHUµJP
 

(DFKFDVHRI&+)LVYDOXHGDW(XURSHUFDVH (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ ZKLFK


LQFOXGHVERWKFRVWRILOOQHVVDQGZLOOLQJQHVVWRSD\

7ZR RWKHU IXQFWLRQV IRU &2 KDYH EHHQ LGHQWLILHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH IRU DFXWH HIIHFWV RQ
PRUWDOLW\DQGIRULVFKDHPLFKHDUWGLVHDVH7KHVHGRQRWDSSHDUUREXVWDWWKHSUHVHQWWLPH
VHH &KDSWHU   DQG KHQFH ZHUH QRW XVHG LQ RXU SUHYLRXV DVVHVVPHQW  0RUWDOLW\ HIIHFWV
IURP VKRUW WHUP H[SRVXUHV DUH FRQVLGHUHG KHUH DV SDUW RI WKH VHQVLWLYLW\ DQDO\VLV ZLWK
PRUWDOLW\ YDOXHG XVLQJ WKH YDOXH RI D OLIH \HDU FRQFHSW VHH (XURSHDQ &RPPLVVLRQ 
DQGWKHYDOXHRIVWDWLVWLFDOOLIH

7KHUHDUHFHUWDLQO\DQXPEHURILVVXHVWKDWFRQFHUQWKHYDOXDWLRQRIKHDOWKHIIHFWV7KHVH
DIIHFWSDUWLFXODUO\WKHDVVHVVPHQWRIPRUWDOLW\DQGKHQFHDUHHVSHFLDOO\UHOHYDQWKHUHWR
EHQ]HQH JLYHQWKDWWKHHYLGHQFHRQWKHHIIHFWVRI&2UHJDUGLQJPRUWDOLW\DUHLQFRQFOXVLYH 


$($7HFKQRORJ\
+RZHYHUFRPSDUHGWRWKHSRWHQWLDOIDFWRUYDULDWLRQLQWKHULVNIDFWRUVIRUEHQ]HQH
HIIHFWVWKLVVRXUFHRIXQFHUWDLQW\LVVHFRQGDU\

2YHUDOOWKHUHIRUHLWLVFRQFOXGHGWKDWHUURUVLQYDOXDWLRQRIKHDOWKGDPDJHVDUHXQOLNHO\WR
EHDPDMRUIDFWRULQWKLVDVVHVVPHQW

 &203$5,6212)&2676$1'%(1(),76
&RVWVDQGEHQHILWVDUHH[SUHVVHGUHODWLYHWREDVHOLQHVFHQDULRV7KHNH\VHQVLWLYLWLHVLQWKLV
VWXG\DUHOLNHO\WRUHODWHWR
• WKHDSSURDFKWRWKHYDOXDWLRQRIPRUWDOLW\DQGDVVXPSWLRQVRQWKHIUDFWLRQRIDGXOW
OHXNDHPLDVWKDWOHDGWRGHDWK
• DVVXPSWLRQVRQWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGKRWVSRWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
• DVVXPSWLRQVUHJDUGLQJSHUVRQDOH[SRVXUHWREHQ]HQH
• YLHZVRQWKHUHOLDELOLW\RISXEOLVKHGH[SRVXUHUHVSRQVHIXQFWLRQVIRU&2IURP
HSLGHPLRORJLFDOVWXGLHV
• DVVXPSWLRQVRQWKHFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIQRQWHFKQLFDOPHDVXUHVIRUUHGXFLQJWUDQVSRUW
HPLVVLRQV

 (;75$32/$7,212)5(68/76727+(3$1(8523($181,21/(9(/

7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVVWXG\LVWRSURYLGHUHVXOWVWKDWGHPRQVWUDWHWKHFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRI
DFWLRQWRFRQWUROOHYHOVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHDFURVVWKH(XURSHDQ8QLRQDVDZKROH7KH
DQDO\VLVGHVFULEHGVRIDUKDVKRZHYHUMXVWFRQFHQWUDWHGRQWKUHHFLWLHV

7KHUHDUHDQXPEHURIYDULDEOHVWKDWPD\EHXVHIXOIRUH[WUDSRODWLRQLQWKLVFDVHLQFOXGLQJ
EXWQRWUHVWULFWHGWRWKHIROORZLQJ
 3RSXODWLRQ
 7UDIILFYROXPH
 (PLVVLRQGDWDIRU&2DQGEHQ]HQH
 (PLVVLRQGDWDIRURWKHUSROOXWDQWVIRUZKLFKGDWDDUHPRUHZLGHO\DYDLODEOHDQGZKLFK
DUHOLNHO\WREHUHODWHGWRHPLVVLRQVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQH
 &RQFHQWUDWLRQVGDWDIRU&2DQGEHQ]HQH
 &RQFHQWUDWLRQGDWDIRURWKHUSROOXWDQWVIRUZKLFKGDWDDUHPRUHZLGHO\DYDLODEOHDQG
ZKLFKDUHOLNHO\WREHUHODWHGWRHPLVVLRQVRI&2DQGEHQ]HQH

(DFKRIWKHYDULDEOHVKDVEHHQDVVHVVHGDJDLQVWDQXPEHURIFULWHULDVXFKDVWKHDYDLODELOLW\
DQGFRPSDUDELOLW\RIGDWD)URPWKHOLVWYDULDEOHV>@DQG>@ZHUHWDNHQDVWKHEHVW
LQGLFDWRUV>SRSXODWLRQ@SURYLGHVDQLQGH[RIWKHVL]HRIFLWLHVDQGLVDYDLODEOH
WKURXJKRXWWKH(8GRPDLQ2IFRXUVHLQVWULFWWHUPVLWLVVLPSO\DPHDVXUHRIWKHQXPEHU
RISHRSOHOLYLQJ DVRSSRVHGWROLYLQJDQGRUZRUNLQJ LQDPRUHRUOHVVZHOOGHILQHGDUHD
+RZHYHULWLVUHDVRQDEOHWRH[SHFWWKDWWKHSRSXODWLRQRIDFLW\ZLOODOVREHUHODWHGWRLWV
JHRJUDSKLFDUHDLWVZRUNIRUFHDQGWKHDPRXQWRIWUDIILFSUHVHQW5HJDUGLQJ>@PHDVXUHG
FRQFHQWUDWLRQGDWDIRU&2IRUDQ\FLW\UHIOHFWQRWRQO\HPLVVLRQVEXWDOVRPHWHRURORJ\

$($7HFKQRORJ\

*LYHQWKHODFNRIEHQ]HQHGDWDLQ$3,6&2LVWDNHQDVDSUR[\IRUEHQ]HQHDOVR JLYHQWKH
VLPLODULW\LQPDLQVRXUFHV 

'DWDVKRZLQJPHDQ&2OHYHOVRYHUDSHULRGRI\HDUVIURPWRZHUHWDNHQIRUDOO
FLWLHVZLWK&2GDWDLQWKH$3,6GDWDEDVH)RUVRPHFLWLHVQRWDOO\HDUVZHUHDYDLODEOHVR
DYHUDJHVFRYHUDVKRUWHUSHULRGRIWLPH7KHSHULRGWRSURYLGHVDUHDVRQDEO\
FRPPRQEDVHOLQHDFURVVWKH(8SUHGDWLQJWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRI'LUHFWLYH((&
WKDWUHTXLUHGFDWDO\WLFFRQYHUWHUVWREHILWWHGWRSHWUROHQJLQHGFDUV)RU*HUPDQ\QRGDWD
ZHUHWDNHQDIWHUUHFRJQLVLQJWKHHDUOLHULQWURGXFWLRQRIFDWDO\WLFFRQYHUWHUVWKHUH
>1RWHLGHQWLFDODVVXPSWLRQVZHUHPDGHLQ$23, (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,
ZKHQFRQVLGHULQJKRZUHSUHVHQWDWLYHWKHVHOHFWHGFLWLHVZHUHZLWKUHVSHFWWR&2OHYHOV 
&RPELQLQJDYHUDJH&2GDWDZLWKSRSXODWLRQJLYHVWKHIROORZLQJSURILOH )LJXUH 

7KHSURILOHZDVVSOLWLQWRSDUWV $%DQG& RQHIRUHDFKRIWKHWKUHHFLWLHVFRQVLGHUHGLQ


GHSWKLQWKLVVWXG\'LYLVLRQVDUHSODFHGDWWKHPLGSRLQWVEHWZHHQWKHFLWLHVZLWKUHVSHFW
WRFRQFHQWUDWLRQ5HVXOWVIRUHDFKRIWKUHHFLWLHVDUHKHUHFRQVLGHUHGWREHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRI
WKHSDUWVRI)LJXUHWKDWWKH\FRPHIURP$FFRUGLQJO\UHVXOWVDUHH[WUDSRODWHGWRWKH
(XURSHDQ8QLRQ·VXUEDQSRSXODWLRQ GHILQHGDVPLOOLRQSHRSOHOLYLQJLQFLWLHVDQG
WRZQVZLWKDSRSXODWLRQLQH[FHVVRI RQWKHEDVLVVKRZQLQ7DEOH

7DEOH'DWDXVHGIRUH[WUDSRODWLRQRIUHVXOWV

&LW\ 3RSXODWLRQ 3RSXODWLRQH[WUDSRODWHGWR


$ $WKHQV  
% /RQGRQ  
& &RORJQH  

,WZLOOEHREVHUYHGWKDWWKHWKUHHFLWLHVDUHQRWFHQWUDOWRWKHSDUWRIWKHFXUYHWKDWWKH\DUH
WDNHQWRUHSUHVHQW7KHH[WUDSRODWLRQSURFHGXUHLVHVWLPDWHGWRRYHUHVWLPDWHFRVWVDQG
EHQHILWVE\DERXWDGGLWLRQDOWRRWKHUHUURUVLQWKHDQDO\VLV

7KHUHDUHQRWVXUSULVLQJO\FRPSOLFDWLRQVZLWKXVLQJFRQFHQWUDWLRQGDWDIURP$3,6ZKLFK
DUHWDNHQIURPDURXQGWKH\HDUIRUHVWLPDWLRQRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQ7KHILUVW
SUREOHPFRQFHUQVYDULDWLRQLQWKHJURZWKRIWUDIILFLQGLIIHUHQWFLWLHV,WLVQRWDEOHWKDWWZR
RIWKHWKUHHFLWLHVFRQVLGHUHGKHUH$WKHQVDQG/RQGRQDUHKHDYLO\FRQJHVWHGDQGZHUH
DPRQJIRXURIWKHVHYHQ$XWR2LO,FLWLHVFRQVLGHUHGWREHDW LQWKHFDVHRI0LODQ RUFORVH
WRVDWXUDWLRQ (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;, 'DWDVKRZLQJWKHUDWLRVRISURMHFWHG
WUDIILFJURZWKLQWKHFLWLHVDVVHVVHGLQ$XWR2LOWRWUDIILFJURZWKQDWLRQDOO\DUHJLYHQLQ
7DEOH EDVHGRQGDWDIURP(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,S 


$($7HFKQRORJ\
&2PHDQDLUTXDOLW\

5.0
Athens
4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0
PJP

2.5

2.0
London
1.5
Cologne
1.0

0.5
A B C
0.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0
XUEDQSRSXODWLRQ FXPXODWHG

)LJXUH3URILOHRIPHDQ&2PHDVXUHPHQWVLQ(XURSHDQFLWLHVDJDLQVWSRSXODWLRQ

7DEOH0HDQUDWLRVRIWUDIILFJURZWKLQWKH$XWR2LOFLWLHVFRPSDUHGWRQDWLRQDOWUDIILF
JURZWKFRQVLGHULQJIRXUFDWHJRULHVRIYHKLFOHVFDUVOLJKWDQGKHDY\GHOLYHU\YHKLFOHVEXVHV
DQGPRWRUF\FOHVDQGPRSHGV

*UHHFH$WKHQV 
*HUPDQ\&RORJQH 
1HWKHUODQGV7KH+DJXH 
8./RQGRQ 
)UDQFH/\RQ 
6SDLQ0DGULG 
,WDO\0LODQ 

7ZRRIWKHWKUHHFLWLHVZKHUHWUDIILFJURZWKLQFLWLHVZDVDVVXPHGWRIROORZQDWLRQDOWUHQGV
KDYHWKHORZHVWSROOXWDQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIWKHVHYHQ$XWR2LO,FLWLHV

$($7HFKQRORJ\

 6HQVLWLYLW\LQH[WUDSRODWLRQIURPWKHWKUHHFLWLHVWRWKH(8

,QWKHDEVHQFHRIDWUXO\UREXVWDSSURDFKIRUH[WUDSRODWLRQRIUHVXOWVIURPDVPDOOQXPEHU
RIFLWLHVWRWKHOHYHORIWKH(8DVDZKROHQRGDWDDUHDYDLODEOHZLWKZKLFKWRJDXJHWKHHUURU
LQWKHPHWKRGXVHGKHUH7KHXVHRIWKUHHFLWLHVVXEMHFWWRZLGHO\GLIIHULQJSROOXWLRQ
SUREOHPVSURYLGHVDUHDVRQDEOHGHJUHHRISURWHFWLRQDJDLQVWVHULRXVHUURU+RZHYHUWKH
RYHUDOOXQFHUWDLQW\DWWKLVVWDJHRIWKHDQDO\VLVUHPDLQVDPDWWHURIVSHFXODWLRQ*LYHQWKH
ODFNRILQIRUPDWLRQHUURUVZHUHQRWTXDQWLILHG7KHSUREOHPVHHPVPRUHOLNHO\WRDIIHFW
WKHRYHUDOOPDJQLWXGHRIFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVUDWKHUWKDQWKHUDWLREHWZHHQWKHP


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 5HVXOWV&2

 0$,15(68/76
(VWLPDWHGPD[LPXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI&2LQ$WKHQVDQG/RQGRQDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH
5HVXOWVDUHQRWVKRZQIRU&RORJQHDVQRH[FHHGHQFHVZHUHSUHGLFWHGIRULW7KHUHVXOWV
VKRZQDUHDQQXDOPHDQILJXUHVLQµJP ([FHHGHQFHRIWKHKRXUVWDQGDUGVLVHVWLPDWHG


WRDULVHZKHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVH[FHHGµJP  PJP DEVROXWHOLPLW RUµJP


  

PJP VHFRQGKLJKHVWKRXUPHDQLQDQ\\HDU 7KHVHDUHLGHQWLILHGLQ7DEOH7KH




¶FRUH·HVWLPDWHVIRUKRWVSRWVDUHEDVHGRQEHVWHVWLPDWHVRIFRQGLWLRQVWKH¶XSSHU·HVWLPDWHV
LOOXVWUDWHWKHH[WHQWRISUREOHPVWKDWPD\DULVHWKURXJKH[WUHPHPHWHRURORJ\

7DEOH(VWLPDWHGSHDNFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI&2 DQQXDOPHDQ LQWKHPRGHOOHGGRPDLQV

8UEDQ +RWVSRWV
EDFNJURXQG
&LW\ (VWLPDWH FRUHHVWLPDWH XSSHUHVWLPDWH
$WKHQV /RZ   
0LG   
+LJK   
&RORJQH /RZ
0LG
+LJK
/RQGRQ /RZ   
0LG   
+LJK   

7DEOH,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIFDVHVZKHUHHVWLPDWHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVH[FHHGOLPLWYDOXHV

8UEDQEDFNJURXQG +RWVSRWV
&LW\ (VWLPDWH PJP PJP PJP PJP PJP PJP
PD[ QGKLJKHVW PD[ PD[ QGKLJKHVW QGKLJKHVW
FRUH XSSHU FRUH XSSHU
$WKHQV /RZ (
0LG ( ( (
+LJK ( ( ( (
&RORJQH /RZ
0LG
+LJK
/RQGRQ /RZ
0LG
+LJK ( (

7DEOHGHPRQVWUDWHVWKDWWKHUHZLOOEHQRSUREOHPVLQWKHXUEDQEDFNJURXQGIRUPHHWLQJ
WKHOLPLWVLQYHVWLJDWHG)RUKRWVSRWVWKHSUREOHPVDUHPRVWVHYHUHIRU$WKHQV)RU

$($7HFKQRORJ\

/RQGRQH[FHHGHQFHRQO\DULVHVE\LIDKLJKHPLVVLRQVFHQDULRLVIROORZHGRULIWKH
XSSHUHVWLPDWHRIWKHUDWLRIURPXUEDQEDFNJURXQGWRKRWVSRWDSSOLHV UHSUHVHQWLQJHJDQ
H[WUHPHPHWHRURORJ\FDVH 

&ODULILFDWLRQRIWKHH[WHQWRIWKHVHSUREOHPVFDQEHJDLQHGE\DVVHVVLQJWKHDUHDRYHUZKLFK
H[FHHGHQFHVRFFXUDQGWKHUDWLRRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQWRSRVVLEOHOLPLW 7DEOHVDQG 

7DEOHJULGFHOOVLQHDFKGRPDLQVKRZLQJH[FHHGHQFH

8UEDQEDFNJURXQG +RWVSRWV
&LW\ (VWLPDWH PJP PJP PJP PJP PJP PJP
PD[ QGKLJKHVW PD[ PD[ QGKLJKHVW QGKLJKHVW
FRUH XSSHU FRUH XSSHU
$WKHQV /RZ 
0LG   
+LJK    
&RORJQH /RZ
0LG
+LJK
/RQGRQ /RZ
0LG
+LJK  

7DEOH5DWLRRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQWRSRVVLEOHOLPLWVZKHUHWKHVHPD\EHH[FHHGHG

8UEDQEDFNJURXQG +RWVSRWV
&LW\ (VWLPDWH PJP PJP PJP PJP PJP PJP
PD[ QGKLJKHVW PD[ PD[ QGKLJKHVW QGKLJKHVW
FRUH XSSHU FRUH XSSHU
$WKHQV /RZ 
0LG   
+LJK    
&RORJQH /RZ
0LG
+LJK
/RQGRQ /RZ
0LG
+LJK  

,QPRVWFDVHVWKHSUREOHPVDSSHDUWREHPLQRUZLWKQHYHUPRUHWKDQRIJULGFHOOV
VKRZLQJDQ\H[FHHGHQFHUHGXFWLRQVUHTXLUHGLQVRPHFDVHVORRNKLJKKRZHYHUUDQJLQJ
XSWR $WKHQVKLJKHPLVVLRQVHVWLPDWHPJP PD[XSSHUHVWLPDWH 


7DEOHLGHQWLILHVWKHVRXUFHRIHPLVVLRQVLQWKHORFDWLRQVZKHUHWKHKLJKHVW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRFFXU0RVWRIWKHSUREOHPVLQERWK$WKHQVDQG/RQGRQDULVHWKURXJKXVH
RISHWUROHQJLQHGFDUV 3&J /LJKWGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHV /'9 DOVRPDNHDVLJQLILFDQW
FRQWULEXWLRQSDUWLFXODUO\LQ$WKHQV


$($7HFKQRORJ\
$($7HFKQRORJ\

7DEOH&RQWULEXWLRQWRWRWDOH[FHHGHQFHE\GLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIYHKLFOH

&2 FRQFHQWUDWLRQFRQWULEXWLRQIRUKLJKHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQFHOO
3&J 3&G /'9 0+'9 %86 : 66 06 /6
$WKHQV         
/RQGRQ         

HPLVVLRQFRQWULEXWLRQIRUKLJKHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQ
FHOO
3&J 3&G /'9 0+'9 %86 : 66 06 /6
$WKHQV         
/RQGRQ         

,PSDFWVFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOHIRU$WKHQVDQG7DEOHIRU/RQGRQ
'DWDDUHQRWSUHVHQWHGIRU&RORJQHDVQRH[FHHGHQFHVZHUHSUHGLFWHGWKHUH2EVHUYLQJWKDW
H[FHHGHQFHVWHQGWREHORFDOLVHG 7DEOH DQGDWZRUVWUHTXLUHDUHGXFWLRQLQ
HPLVVLRQVLWVHHPVOLNHO\WKDWVROXWLRQVZRXOGEHEDVHGRQORFDOLVHGPHDVXUHVUDWKHUWKDQ
JHQHULFRSWLRQVWKDWDIIHFWWKHHQWLUHYHKLFOHIOHHW&RVWVDQGEHQHILWVKDYHEHHQFDOFXODWHG
RQWKLVEDVLV0RUWDOLW\HIIHFWV FRQVLGHUHGDVDVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLV KDYHEHHQYDOXHGDWD
YDOXHRIDOLIH\HDU 92/< RI(XURHDFK  



7KH92/<FRQFHSWLVDSSOLHGWRGHDWKVOLQNHGWR&2DVLWLVOLNHO\WKDWWKHHIIHFWRI&2LVWRVKRUWHQOLIH
H[SHFWDQF\E\RQO\DVPDOODPRXQWLQRWKHUZRUGVWKDWWKHSHRSOHDIIHFWHGDUHOLNHO\WREHVHULRXVO\LOODOUHDG\
IURPRWKHUFDXVHV7KHDSSURDFKLVGLVFXVVHGLQJUHDWHUGHWDLOE\(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ  )RUEHQ]HQH
DKLJKHUYDOXDWLRQLVDSSOLHGDVWKHDVVXPSWLRQPDGHIRUEHQ]HQHLVWKDWH[SRVXUHLVIXQGDPHQWDOWRWKH
LQFLGHQFHRIWKHGLVHDVH OHXNDHPLD WKDWFDXVHVGHDWK


$($7HFKQRORJ\
7DEOH,PSDFWVFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRIWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIGLIIHUHQW&2OLPLWVLQ
$WKHQV$OOEHQHILWDQGFRVWUHVXOWVH[SUHVVHGLQ0(XUR¶8SSHU·FDVHXVHVDKLJKUDWLRRI
KRWVSRWWRXUEDQEDFNJURXQGUHSUHVHQWLQJH[WUHPHPHWHRURORJ\

/LPLW PJP PJP PJP PJP


PD[ QGKLJKHVW PD[ QGKLJKHVW
$WKHQVORZHPLVVLRQ &RUH 8SSHU
VFHQDULR
&DVHV&+)    
%HQHILWV    
&DVHVPRUWDOLW\VHQVLWLYLW\    
%HQHILWVPRUWDOLW\VHQVLWLYLW\    
%HQHILWVWRWDOVHQVLWLYLW\    
&RVWV    

$WKHQVPLGHPLVVLRQ
VFHQDULR
&DVHV&+)    
%HQHILWV    
&DVHVPRUWDOLW\VHQVLWLYLW\    
%HQHILWVPRUWDOLW\VHQVLWLYLW\    
%HQHILWVWRWDOVHQVLWLYLW\    
&RVWV    

$WKHQVKLJKHPLVVLRQ
VFHQDULR
&DVHV&+)    
%HQHILWV    
&DVHVPRUWDOLW\VHQVLWLYLW\    
%HQHILWVPRUWDOLW\VHQVLWLYLW\    
%HQHILWVWRWDOVHQVLWLYLW\    
&RVWV    

7DEOH,PSDFWVFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRIWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIGLIIHUHQW&2OLPLWVLQ
/RQGRQ

/LPLW PJP PJP PJP PJP


PD[ QGKLJKHVW PD[ QGKLJKHVW
/RQGRQKLJKHPLVVLRQ &RUH 8SSHU
VFHQDULR
&DVHV&+)    
%HQHILWV    
&DVHVPRUWDOLW\VHQVLWLYLW\    
%HQHILWVPRUWDOLW\VHQVLWLYLW\    

$($7HFKQRORJ\

%HQHILWVWRWDOVHQVLWLYLW\    
&RVWV    

5HVXOWVDUHPL[HGZLWKEHQHILWVH[FHHGLQJFRVWVIRUVRPHFDVHVZKHUHRQO\DORZOHYHORI
DEDWHPHQWLVQHHGHGDQGYLFHYHUVDZKHUHDEDWHPHQWQHHGVDUHKLJKHU7KHDQDO\VLVLV
FRQVLGHUDEO\KDPSHUHGE\WKHODFNRIGHILQLWLYHJXLGDQFHRQWKHKHDOWKHIIHFWVRIDPELHQW
H[SRVXUHVWR&2

 021,725,1*&2676
7KHIROORZLQJGDWDDUHEDVHGRQWKHFRVWVRIWKH8.QHWZRUN$QDXWRPDWLFDQDO\VHUIRU
&2FRVWVLQWKHUDQJHRIWR(XUR7KH/RFDO6LWH2SHUDWRUFRQWUDFWZRXOG
W\SLFDOO\EHDURXQG(XURSHU\HDU&DOLEUDWLRQJDVVWDQGDUGVZRXOGFRVWDURXQG
(XURSHU\HDU5XQQLQJFRVWVLQFOXGLQJPDQDJHPHQW4$4&DQGGDWDKDQGOLQJZRXOG
EHLQWKHUHJLRQRI(XURSHU\HDU WKLVLVVXEVWDQWLDOO\OHVVWKDQIRUEHQ]HQH 7KXV
WKHHVWLPDWHGFRVWIRUHDFK&2VLWHZRXOGEHLQWKHUHJLRQRI(XURIRUWKHILUVW\HDU
DQG(XURIRUVXEVHTXHQW\HDUV

7KHFRVWRIWKHPRQLWRULQJHTXLSPHQWVKRXOGSUREDEO\EHVSOLWZLWKWKHFRVWVWREH
LQFXUUHGXQGHUWKHR]RQH'LUHFWLYHIRUPRQLWRULQJR]RQHSUHFXUVRUV

,WZDVQRWSRVVLEOHWRHVWLPDWHWKHQXPEHURIPRQLWRUVUHTXLUHGLQHDFKFRXQWU\DVWKLV
ZRXOGKDYHUHTXLUHG
• LQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHQXPEHURI]RQHVDQGDJJORPHUDWLRQV
• PRGHOOLQJRIWUHQGVLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQHDFK]RQHDQGDJJORPHUDWLRQ

 $**5(*$7,21
7DEOHVXPPDULVHVWKHDJJUHJDWHGUHVXOWVRIWKHVWXG\XVLQJWKHPHWKRGRORJ\GHVFULEHG
LQ6HFWLRQ,WLQFOXGHVDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHVHQVLWLYLW\WRDQXPEHURIIDFWRUV
• (PLVVLRQVFHQDULRV
• 5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGKRWVSRWFRQFHQWUDWLRQV
• ,QFOXVLRQH[FOXVLRQRIWKHSRVVLEOHDFXWHHIIHFWVRI&2RQPRUWDOLW\


$($7HFKQRORJ\
7DEOH$JJUHJDWHGUHVXOWVIRU&2LQFOXGLQJVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VHV¶·LVHQWHUHGZKHUH
WKHUHLVQRSUHGLFWHGH[FHHGHQFHRIWKHLQGLFDWLYHOLPLWYDOXHVLQYHVWLJDWHG$OOGDWDLQ
0HXUR

/LPLW /RFDWLRQ (PLVVLRQ &DVH %HQHILWV %HQHILWV &RVWV


VFHQDULR VHQVLWLYLW\
$OOLQGLFDWLYHOLPLWYDOXHV XUEDQEDFN $OO  1RH[FHHGDQFH

PJP QGKLJKHVW

KRWVSRW / &RUH   
0 &RUH   
+ &RUH   

KRWVSRW / 8SSHU   
0 8SSHU   
+ 8SSHU   

PJP KLJKHVW

KRWVSRW / &RUH   
0 &RUH   
+ &RUH   

KRWVSRW / 8SSHU   


0 8SSHU   
+ 8SSHU   

$($7HFKQRORJ\

 5HVXOWV%HQ]HQH

 0$,15(68/76
(VWLPDWHGPD[LPXPFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIEHQ]HQHLQWKHWKUHHFLWLHVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH
7KHSRWHQWLDOH[LVWHQFHRIH[FHHGHQFHVLVLGHQWLILHGLQ7DEOH7KHFROXPQKHDGHG
¶XSSHUHVWLPDWH·LVQRWFDUULHGWKURXJKWRWKHUHVWRIWKHDQDO\VLVEHFDXVHLWFDQEHWDNHQWR
UHSUHVHQWDFDVHRIH[WUHPHPHWHRURORJ\*LYHQWKDWWKHEHQ]HQHOLPLWVDUHDOOH[SUHVVHGDV
DQQXDOPHDQILJXUHVWKHUHVKRXOGEHOLWWOHVHQVLWLYLW\WRH[WUHPHZHDWKHUHYHQWVDVWKHVH
REYLRXVO\ZLOOEHDYHUDJHGRYHUD\HDU7KHUHVXOWVDUHJLYHQLQ7DEOHDQGKRZHYHU
WRGHPRQVWUDWHWKHOHYHORIVHQVLWLYLW\WKDWH[LVWVZLWKUHVSHFWWRDVVXPSWLRQVRQ
UHODWLRQVKLSVEHWZHHQXUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGKRWVSRWV

7DEOH(VWLPDWHGSHDNFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIEHQ]HQH DQQXDOPHDQ LQWKHPRGHOOHG


GRPDLQV

8UEDQ +RWVSRWV
EDFNJURXQG
&LW\ (VWLPDWH FRUHHVWLPDWH XSSHUHVWLPDWH
$WKHQV /RZ   
0LG   
+LJK   
&RORJQH /RZ   
0LG   
+LJK   
/RQGRQ /RZ   
0LG   
+LJK   

7DEOH,GHQWLILFDWLRQRIFDVHVZKHUHHVWLPDWHGFRQFHQWUDWLRQVH[FHHGOLPLWYDOXHV

8UEDQEDFNJURXQG +RWVSRWV
&LW\ (VWLPDWH µJP µJP µJP µJP µJP µJP µJP
FRUH FRUH XSSHU FRUH
$WKHQV /RZ ( ( ( (
0LG ( ( ( (
+LJK ( ( ( ( (
&RORJQH /RZ (
0LG ( (
+LJK ( (
/RQGRQ /RZ ( (
0LG ( ( (
+LJK ( ( ( (


$($7HFKQRORJ\
)URPWKLVDQDO\VLVSUREOHPVDUHVHHQWREHSUHVHQWLQWKHIROORZLQJFDVHV
$WKHQV µJP XUEDQEDFNJURXQGDQGKRWVSRWDOOHPLVVLRQVFHQDULRV


µJP KRWVSRWVDOOHPLVVLRQVFHQDULRV


µJP KRWVSRWVKLJKHPLVVLRQVFHQDULR


&RORJQH µJP KRWVSRWDOOHPLVVLRQVFHQDULRV




µJP QRQH


µJP QRQH 

/RQGRQ µJP XUEDQEDFNJURXQGKLJKHPLVVLRQVFHQDULRDQGKRWVSRW




DOOHPLVVLRQ VFHQDULRV
µJP KRWVSRWVPLGDQGKLJKHPLVVLRQVFHQDULRV


µJP QRQH 

7RJDXJHWKHH[WHQWRIWKHVHH[FHHGHQFHVWKHRIWKH[NPJULGFHOOIRUHDFKFLW\
VXEMHFWWRH[FHHGHQFHLVQRZLGHQWLILHG 7DEOH ,QPRVWFDVHVWKHH[FHHGHQFHLV
UHODWLYHO\VPDOO DJDLQOHVVWKDQ RWKHUWKDQIRUWKHµJP OLPLWLQKRWVSRWVZKLFKLV


ZLGHO\H[FHHGHG

7DEOHJULGVLQHDFKGRPDLQVKRZLQJH[FHHGHQFH

8UEDQEDFNJURXQG +RWVSRWV
&LW\ (VWLPDWH µJP µJP µJP µJP 
µJP µJP
FRUH
$WKHQV /RZ   
0LG   
+LJK    
&RORJQH /RZ 
0LG 
+LJK 
/RQGRQ /RZ 
0LG  
+LJK   

7DEOH5DWLRRIFRQFHQWUDWLRQWRSRVVLEOHOLPLWVZKHUHWKHVHPD\EHH[FHHGHG

8UEDQEDFNJURXQG +RWVSRWV
&LW\ (VWLPDWH µJP µJP µJP µJP µJP µJP
FRUH FRUH FRUH
$WKHQV /RZ   
0LG   
+LJK    
&RORJQH /RZ 
0LG 
+LJK 
/RQGRQ /RZ 
0LG  
+LJK   

$($7HFKQRORJ\

7KHUDWLRVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHIRUWKHµJP OLPLWXQGHUOLQHWKHH[WHQWRIWKHSUREOHPV


WKDWWKLVRSWLRQZRXOGEULQJDERXW

7DEOHLGHQWLILHVWKHVRXUFHRIHPLVVLRQVLQWKHORFDWLRQVZKHUHWKHKLJKHVW
FRQFHQWUDWLRQVRFFXU0RVWRIWKHSUREOHPVDULVHWKURXJKXVHRISHWUROHQJLQHGFDUV
3&J $VLJQLILFDQWFRQWULEXWLRQLVDOVRPDGHE\OLJKWGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHVDQGPRWRUF\FOHV
SDUWLFXODUO\LQ$WKHQV

7DEOH&RQWULEXWLRQWRWRWDOH[FHHGHQFHE\GLIIHUHQWW\SHVRIYHKLFOH

%HQ]HQ FRQFHQWUDWLRQFRQWULEXWLRQIRUKLJKHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQFHOO
H
3&J 3&G /'9 0+'9 %86 : 6WDWLRQDU\
$WKHQV       
&RORJQH       
/RQGRQ       

HPLVVLRQFRQWULEXWLRQIRUKLJKHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQFHOO
3&J 3&G /'9 0+'9 %86 : 66
$WKHQV       
&RORJQH       
/RQGRQ       

0HDVXUHVWRFRQWUROHPLVVLRQVPD\EHWDNHQDWDQH[WUHPHO\ORFDOOHYHO IRUH[DPSOHDWDQ
LQGLYLGXDOURDGMXQFWLRQ RUPRUHJHQHUDOO\ IRUH[DPSOHWKURXJKDGDSWDWLRQWRYHKLFOH
GHVLJQ 7KHH[WHQWWRZKLFKHDFKRSWLRQZRXOGEHXVHGZRXOGEHGHSHQGHQWRQWKHH[WHQW
RIH[FHHGHQFHVLQERWKVSDFHDQGPDJQLWXGH7KHUHVXOWVRI7DEOHVDQGVXJJHVWWKDW
WKHPHDVXUHVWDNHQWRDWWDLQWKHDQGµJP OLPLWVZRXOGEHORFDOLVHGEXWWKDW


DWWDLQPHQWRIWKHµJP LQKRWVSRWVZRXOGUHTXLUHPRUHZLGHVSUHDGDFWLRQ:KHUH


ZLGHVSUHDGDFWLRQLVUHTXLUHGUHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGIRUVFHQDULRVDJHQHUDOLVHGVFHQDULR
ZKHUHHPLVVLRQVDUHUHGXFHGE\WKHUDWLRRIWKHKLJKHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQLGHQWLILHGWRWKHOLPLW
YDOXHDQGDQRSWLPLVHGVFHQDULRZKHUHHPLVVLRQVDUHUHGXFHGLQHDFKFHOO ZKHUH
QHFHVVDU\ VXFKWKDWWKHOLPLWYDOXHLVMXVWUHDFKHG)RUWKHFDVHVZKHUHRQO\ORFDOLVHG
PHDVXUHVORRNQHFHVVDU\WKHDVVHVVPHQWKDVFRQVLGHUHGRQO\WKHRSWLPLVHGFDVH2QWKLV
EDVLVHVWLPDWHGFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRIDFWLRQIRUHDFKRIWKHWKUHHFLWLHVDUHVXPPDULVHGLQ
7DEOHVWR2QO\FDVHVZKHUHH[FHHGHQFHVKDYHEHHQLGHQWLILHGDUHSUHVHQWHG


$($7HFKQRORJ\
7DEOH5HGXFHGLPSDFWVEHQHILWVDQGFRVWVDULVLQJIURPPHHWLQJWKHGLIIHUHQWOLPLW
YDOXHVLQ$WKHQV

$WKHQV N(XUR N(XUR


FDVHV FDVHV EHQHILW EHQHILW N(XUR
OLPLW ORFDWLRQ UDQJH ORZ KLJK ORZ KLJK FRVW
 XUEDQEDFN /RSW     
XUEDQEDFN 0RSW     
XUEDQEDFN +²RSW     

 KRWVSRW /JHQ     


KRWVSRW 0JHQ     
KRWVSRW +²JHQ     

 KRWVSRW /RSW     


KRWVSRW 0RSW     
KRWVSRW +²RSW     

 KRWVSRW /RSW     


KRWVSRW 0RSW     
KRWVSRW +²RSW     

 KRWVSRW +²RSW     

7DEOH5HGXFHGLPSDFWVEHQHILWVDQGFRVWVDULVLQJIURPPHHWLQJWKHGLIIHUHQWOLPLW
YDOXHVLQ&RORJQH

&RORJQH N(XUR N(XUR


FDVHV FDVHV EHQHILW EHQHILW N(XUR
OLPLW ORFDWLRQ UDQJH ORZ KLJK ORZ KLJK FRVW
µJP KRWVSRW /JHQ     
KRWVSRW 0JHQ     
KRWVSRW +²JHQ     

µJP KRWVSRW /RSW     


KRWVSRW 0RSW     
KRWVSRW +²RSW     

$($7HFKQRORJ\

7DEOH5HGXFHGLPSDFWVEHQHILWVDQGFRVWVDULVLQJIURPPHHWLQJWKHGLIIHUHQWOLPLW
YDOXHVLQ/RQGRQ

/RQGRQ N(XUR N(XUR


FDVHV FDVHV EHQHILW EHQHILW N(XUR
OLPLW ORFDWLRQ UDQJH ORZ KLJK ORZ KLJK FRVW
 XUEDQEDFN +²RSW     

 KRWVSRW /JHQ     


KRWVSRW 0JHQ     
KRWVSRW +²JHQ     

 KRWVSRW /RSW     


KRWVSRW 0RSW     
KRWVSRW +²RSW     

 KRWVSRW 0RSW     


KRWVSRW +²RSW     

,QDOOFDVHVHVWLPDWHGEHQHILWVLQWHUPVRIUHGXFLQJFDQFHUVDUHOHVVWKDQWKHFRVWVRI
FRQWUROOLQJEHQ]HQH7KLVLVDGGUHVVHGDJDLQLQWKHGLVFXVVLRQEHORZ7KHHIILFLHQF\LQ
WHUPVRIEHQHILWFRVWUDWLRVLVKLJKHVWIRUPHDVXUHVWDUJHWHGDWUHGXFLQJORFDOH[FHHGHQFHV
UDWKHUWKDQDWUHGXFLQJHPLVVLRQVJHQHUDOO\

 021,725,1*&2676
7KHIROORZLQJGDWDDUHEDVHGRQWKHFRVWVRIWKH8.QHWZRUN$QDXWRPDWLFDQDO\VHUIRU
EHQ]HQHRUEHQ]HQHWROXHQHDQG[\OHQHFRVWVLQWKHUDQJHRI(XURWR(XUR
$/RFDO6LWH2SHUDWRUZRXOGEHQHHGHGWRWDNHFDUHRIWKHVDPSOHUDQGDW\SLFDOFRQWUDFW
IRUWKLVZRXOGEHDURXQG(XURSHU\HDU&DOLEUDWLRQJDVVWDQGDUGVZRXOGFRVW
DURXQG(XURSHU\HDUDQGHOHFWULFLW\DQGQLWURJHQF\OLQGHUVLQWRWDODURXQG(XUR
SHU\HDU5XQQLQJFRVWVLQFOXGLQJPDQDJHPHQW4$4&DQGGDWDKDQGOLQJZRXOGEHLQ
WKHUDQJHRIWR(XURSHU\HDU7KXVWKHHVWLPDWHGFRVWIRUHDFKEHQ]HQHVLWH
ZRXOGEHLQWKHUHJLRQRI(XURIRUWKHILUVW\HDUDQG(XUR
IRUVXEVHTXHQW\HDUV7KHFRVWRIWKHPRQLWRULQJHTXLSPHQWVKRXOGSUREDEO\EHVSOLWZLWK
WKHFRVWVWREHLQFXUUHGXQGHUWKHR]RQH'LUHFWLYHIRUPRQLWRULQJR]RQHSUHFXUVRUV

,WZDVQRWSRVVLEOHWRHVWLPDWHWKHQXPEHURIPRQLWRUVUHTXLUHGLQHDFKFRXQWU\DVWKLV
ZRXOGKDYHUHTXLUHG
• LQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHQXPEHURI]RQHVDQGDJJORPHUDWLRQV
• PRGHOOLQJRIWUHQGVLQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQHDFK]RQHDQGDJJORPHUDWLRQ


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 %(1=(1(/(9(/6$5281'6(59,&(67$7,216
6SHFLILFPRGHOOLQJRIEHQ]HQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDURXQGVHUYLFHVWDWLRQVDQGRWKHUIDFLOLWLHVIRU
WUDQVIHUULQJIXHOKDVQRWEHHQFRQGXFWHGDVSDUWRIWKLVVWXG\+RZHYHUUHSRUWVSURYLGHG
E\&21&$:(SURYLGHGHWDLOVRIWZRPHDVXUHPHQWFDPSDLJQV7KHILUVWLQYHVWLJDWHG
VKRUWWHUP KRXU FRQFHQWUDWLRQVDURXQGVHUYLFHVWDWLRQVDQGGLVWULEXWLRQWHUPLQDOVLQ
FRXQWULHVDFURVV(XURSHDQ %DWHVHWDO 7KHVHFRQGSURYLGHGPHDVXUHPHQWVRYHUD
RQH\HDUSHULRGLQDQGDURXQGDVLQJOHVHUYLFHVWDWLRQLQWKH8QLWHG.LQJGRP /HZLVDQG
6LPSVRQ 

7KH%DWHVHWDOVWXG\UHYHDOHGWKHSRVVLELOLW\IRUH[WUHPHO\KLJKFRQFHQWUDWLRQVWRH[LVW
DURXQGVHUYLFHVWDWLRQVZLWKWKHKLJKHVWKRXUOHYHOUHJLVWHUHGEHLQJµJP IRUDVLWH


LQ*UHHFHLQZLQWHU)XHOEHQ]HQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQDWWKLVVWDWLRQUDQJHGIURPWRYY
FRQGLWLRQVIRUWKHSHULRGDSSHDUWRKDYHEHHQDQWLF\FORQLFZLWKZLQGVSHHGVRIPVRU
OHVV$QRWKHUIDFWRUDSSDUHQWIURP%DWHVHWDOLVDKLJKGHJUHHRIYDULDELOLW\LQWKHUHVXOWV
ZLWKUHVXOWVIRUVRPHORFDWLRQVEHLQJVLPLODUWREDFNJURXQGOHYHOV8QIRUWXQDWHO\
LQVSHFWLRQRIWKHGDWDVKRZHGWKDWWKHUHZDVOLWWOHSDWWHUQLQWKHUHVXOWVZKHQFRPSDUHGWR
IXHOEHQ]HQHFRQWHQW ZKLFKUDQJHGIURPWRYY IXHOWKURXJKSXW WR
OGD\ RUWHPSHUDWXUH([WUDSRODWLRQRIWKHUHVXOWVGRHVQRWWKHUHIRUHORRNSRVVLEOH

2QO\RIWKHVHUYLFHVWDWLRQVLQWKHVWXG\ERWKLQ6ZHGHQZHUHHTXLSSHGZLWK6WDJH,,
YDSRXUUHFRYHU\V\VWHPV&RQFHQWUDWLRQVRIEHQ]HQHLQWKH¶WUDIILFDQGIRUHFRXUW·ORFDWLRQ
WKDWJDYHVRPHRIWKHKLJKHVWUHDGLQJVJHQHUDOO\VXJJHVW DVH[SHFWHG WKDWWKHYDSRXU
UHFRYHU\V\VWHPVZHUHHIIHFWLYHLQORZHULQJEHQ]HQHFRQFHQWUDWLRQV+RZHYHUDVWKHIXHO
VDPSOHVIRUWKHVHVLWHVZHUHORVWLQWUDQVLWQRUHDOLQGLFDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKH
YDSRXUUHFRYHU\V\VWHPLVSRVVLEOH

/HZLVDQG6LPSVRQ  XVHGDFWLYHDQGGLIIXVLYHVDPSOLQJWHFKQLTXHVDURXQGDVLQJOH


VHUYLFHVWDWLRQLQWKH8.IRUDSHULRGRIRQH\HDU7KHPHDQFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIEHQ]HQHLQ
WKHJDVROLQHVROGDWWKHVLWHZDV7RWDOJDVROLQHVDOHVRYHUWKH\HDUZHUHPLOOLRQ
OLWUHV7KLVLVPHGLXPLQVL]HFRPSDUHGWRWKHVWDWLRQVOLVWHGE\%DWHVHWDOWKRXJKDYHUDJH
GDLO\WKURXJKSXWZDVRQO\DERXWRQHWKLUGRIWKDWDWWKHODUJHVWVHUYLFHVWDWLRQ LQWHUPVRI
IXHOVDOHV FRQVLGHUHGE\%DWHVHWDO5HVXOWVVKRZHGDQQXDOPHDQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI
EHWZHHQDQGµJP ZLWKDQDYHUDJHRIXJP 6HUYLFHVWDWLRQDFWLYLWLHVZHUH
 

IRXQGWRFRQWULEXWH µJP RIWKLVDQDGMDFHQWURDGDQRWKHUOHDYLQJ




DWWULEXWHGWREDFNJURXQG7KHVHUYLFHVWDWLRQZDVQRWHTXLSSHGZLWKYDSRXUUHFRYHU\
IDFLOLWLHV

7KHUHVXOWVRIWKH&21&$:(VWXGLHVVXJJHVWWKDWSUREOHPVLQPHHWLQJWKHDLUTXDOLW\
OLPLWVIRUEHQ]HQHEHLQJFRQVLGHUHGLQWKLVVWXG\ DQQXDODYHUDJHVEHWZHHQDQGµJP 

PD\ZHOOH[LVWDURXQGVHUYLFHVWDWLRQV7KHPRVWDSSURSULDWHWHFKQLTXHIRUGHDOLQJZLWK
WKLVSUREOHPZRXOGEHWKHXVHRI6WDJH,,YDSRXUUHFRYHU\HTXLSPHQW$VVKRZQHOVHZKHUH
LQWKLVUHSRUWWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKLVWHFKQRORJ\LQUHGXFLQJHPLVVLRQVLVDURXQG
7KLVUDWHRIUHFRYHU\PD\QRWWREHVXIILFLHQWWRUHGXFHEHQ]HQHOHYHOVWRWKHOLPLWV
FRQVLGHUHGKHUH&RVWVSHUWRQQHRIEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQDYRLGHGDUHLQWKHUDQJHWR
(XUR7KHXVHRIYDSRXUUHFRYHU\IRUUHGXFLQJ92&HPLVVLRQVLVDOUHDG\

$($7HFKQRORJ\

XQGHUZD\LQDQXPEHURI(80HPEHU6WDWHV$OOVHUYLFHVWDWLRQVLQ$XVWULD'HQPDUN
*HUPDQ\,WDO\WKH1HWKHUODQGVDQG6ZHGHQDUHUHTXLUHGWREHILWWHGZLWK6WDJH,,V\VWHPV
E\WKH\HDU7KHFRVWVDQGEHQHILWVRIDQ\GLUHFWLYHHQIRUFLQJWKHXVHRIYDSRXU
UHFRYHU\ZRXOGWKXVEH]HURIRUWKHVHFRXQWULHVDWOHDVW7KHUHLVLQWHUHVWHOVHZKHUHLQWKH
(XURSHDQ8QLRQDVVKRZQE\VWXGLHVXQGHUZD\LQ)LQODQG*UHHFHDQGWKH8.6RPH
SHWUROVWDWLRQRZQHUVDSSHDUWREHPDNLQJYROXQWDU\PRYHVWRLQWURGXFH6WDJH,,

7KHUHDUHGULYHUVIRUDFWLRQWRUHGXFH92&HPLVVLRQVIURPVHUYLFHVWDWLRQV2QH
XQGRXEWHGO\LVFRQFHUQRYHUWKHKHDOWKHIIHFWVRI92&VWKRXJKWKHUHVHHPVWREHPRUH
FRQFHUQRYHUWKHHIIHFWVRI92&VRQWURSRVSKHULFR]RQHOHYHOV*LYHQWKLVDQGWKHIDFW
WKDWYDSRXUUHFRYHU\LVDOVRFRQVLGHUHGLQRQJRLQJZRUNRQWKH(8VWUDWHJ\IRUGHDOLQJZLWK
R]RQH DQGKHQFHFRXOGEHGRXEOHFRXQWHGKHUH VSHFLILFDQDO\VLVRIYDSRXUUHFRYHU\·V
FRVWVDQGEHQHILWVZLWKUHVSHFWWREHQ]HQHKDVQRWVRIDUEHHQDWWHPSWHGZLWKLQWKLVVWXG\
$GGLWLRQDOPRGHOOLQJZRUNZRXOGEHSRVVLEOHLILWZDVWKRXJKWWREHDSULRULW\IRUWKH
UHPDLQGHURIWKHVWXG\

,QVXPPDU\WKHUHLVFHUWDLQO\FDXVHIRUFRQFHUQWKDWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIEHQ]HQHLQDQG
DURXQGVHUYLFHVWDWLRQVPLJKWH[FHHGWKHSRVVLEOHOLPLWYDOXHVEHLQJFRQVLGHUHGKHUH6KRUW
WHUPFRQFHQWUDWLRQVLQH[FHVVRIµJP KDYHEHHQUHFRUGHGLQPHDVXUHPHQWFDPSDLJQV


UXQE\&21&$:(7KHPRVWHIIHFWLYHFRQWURORIWKHVHHPLVVLRQVLVOLNHO\WREHWKURXJK
WKHXVHRI6WDJH,,YDSRXUUHFRYHU\V\VWHPVZKLFKDUHDOUHDG\EHLQJDGRSWHGLQDJURZLQJ
QXPEHURI(80HPEHU6WDWHVDQGPD\EHFRPHPDQGDWRU\HOVHZKHUHLQRUGHUWRPHHWWKH
GHPDQGVRIWKHSURSRVHG(PLVVLRQ&HLOLQJV'LUHFWLYH

 $**5(*$7,21
7KHDJJUHJDWLRQSURFHGXUHZDVGHVFULEHGDERYHLQVHFWLRQ5HVXOWVIRUEHQ]HQHDUH
VKRZQLQ7DEOH7KHFROXPQKHDGHG¶LPSDFWV·VKRZVWRWDOFDQFHUVQRWIDWDOLWLHV1R
DFFRXQWLVWDNHQRIPRQLWRULQJFRVWVKHUH

&HOOVZLWKHQWHUHGUHSUHVHQWFDVHVZKHUHQRH[FHHGHQFHLVSUHGLFWHG


$($7HFKQRORJ\
7DEOH$JJUHJDWHGUHVXOWVRIWKHDQDO\VLVIRUEHQ]HQHHVWLPDWLQJFRVWVDQGEHQHILWV
WKURXJKRXWWKH(8&HOOVZLWKHQWHUHGUHSUHVHQWFDVHVZKHUHQRH[FHHGHQFHLVSUHGLFWHG

/LPLW ,PSDFWV FDVHV %HQHILWV N(XUR &RVWV N(XUR


µJP /RFDWLRQ (PLVVLRQV /RZ +LJK /RZ +LJK
 XUEDQEDFN /RSW     
0RSW     
+²RSW     

 KRWVSRW /JHQ     


0JHQ     
+²JHQ     

 KRWVSRW /RSW     


0RSW     
+²RSW     

 XUEDQEDFN /RSW     
0RSW     
+²RSW     

 KRWVSRW /RSW     


0RSW     
+²RSW     

 XUEDQEDFN /RSW     
0RSW     
+²RSW     

 KRWVSRW /RSW     
0RSW     
+²RSW     

$($7HFKQRORJ\

 &RQFOXVLRQV

7KHIROORZLQJFRQFOXVLRQVDUHGUDZQIURPWKLVVWXG\

 7KHPDLQVRXUFHRI&2DQGEHQ]HQHLQDUHDVZKHUHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVPD\EHRIFRQFHUQLV
WKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUDQGSDVVHQJHUFDUVUXQQLQJRQJDVROLQHLQSDUWLFXODU7KLVZLOO
UHPDLQWKHFDVHHYHQDIWHUWKH$XWR2LO'LUHFWLYHVRQIXHOTXDOLW\DQGYHKLFOHHPLVVLRQV
FRPHLQWRIRUFH

 ,QFOXVLRQRIQHZGDWDWRWKLVILQDOUHSRUWKDVVLJQLILFDQWO\DOWHUHGWKHUHVXOWVZLWKWKH
JHQHUDOHIIHFWRIPDNLQJOLPLWYDOXHVPRUHHDVLO\DWWDLQDEOH

 7KHUHLVOLPLWHGNQRZOHGJHRIWKHHIIHFWVRI&2RQKXPDQKHDOWK$YDLODEOH
HSLGHPLRORJLFDOGDWDVXJJHVWWKDWLWPD\EHPRUHKDUPIXOWKDQRULJLQDOO\WKRXJKW
WKRXJKWKHVHGDWDDUHOLPLWHGDQGQHHGIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQ

 $OWKRXJKEHQ]HQHLVDNQRZQFDUFLQRJHQLWVHIIHFWVDWDPELHQWOHYHOVDUHXQFHUWDLQ
WKRXJKIURPWKHUHVXOWVRIWKLVVWXG\ZRXOGDSSHDUWREHVPDOO$VLVFRPPRQSUDFWLFH
WKLVVWXG\KDVUHOLHGXSRQH[WUDSRODWLRQRIGDWDIURPDQDO\VLVRIRFFXSDWLRQDOH[SRVXUHV
7KHSUREOHPVRIGRLQJWKLVDUHXQGHUOLQHGE\WKHIDFWRUYDULDWLRQLQWKHULVNIDFWRU
DVUHFRPPHQGHGE\WKHDGKRFPHHWLQJRIH[SHUWVFRQYHQHGXQGHUWKHZRUNLQJJURXS

 8QGHUFXUUHQWDQGSURSRVHGOHJLVODWLRQLQVRPHFLWLHV HJ&RORJQH WKHUHLVXQOLNHO\WR


EHH[FHHGHQFHRIWKHOLPLWYDOXHVLQYHVWLJDWHGIRU&2RURIWKHOHVVVWULFWOLPLWV
LQYHVWLJDWHGIRUEHQ]HQH,QRWKHUV HJ$WKHQV WKHUHLVOLNHO\WREHVLJQLILFDQW
H[FHHGHQFHSDUWLFXODUO\LQDUHDVZKHUHHPLVVLRQVDUHKLJK ¶KRWVSRWV· 

 ,QPRVWFDVHVZKHUHH[FHHGHQFHH[LVWVLWORRNVXQOLNHO\WKDWIXUWKHUDEDWHPHQWRI
EHQ]HQHRU&2VSHFLILFDOO\ZRXOGEHMXVWLILDEOHRQFRVWEHQHILWJURXQGVDFFRUGLQJWR
FXUUHQWNQRZOHGJHZLWKRXWEULQJLQJLQDQXPEHURIVHFRQGDU\EHQHILWV7RGRWKLV
FRXOGFRPSURPLVHWKHFRVWEHQHILWFRPSDULVRQOHDGLQJWRUHFRPPHQGDWLRQRIVXE
RSWLPDOPHDVXUHVIRUFRQWURORIWKHVHFRQGDU\EHQHILWV

 +RZHYHULWLVQRWHGWKDWLQPDQ\FDVHVWKHH[FHHGHQFHVGHWHFWHGDUHH[WUHPHO\ORFDOLVHG
DQGZRXOGQRWUHTXLUHDPDMRUUHGXFWLRQLQ&2RUEHQ]HQHHPLVVLRQV7KLVPD\EH
DFKLHYHGLQWKHIXWXUHWKURXJKWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIPHDVXUHVWRFRQWURORWKHUWUDIILF
UHODWHGSUREOHPV$JRRGH[DPSOHZRXOGEHLQFUHDVHGIXHOHIILFLHQF\RIYHKLFOHVZKLFK
LVFXUUHQWO\XQGHUGLVFXVVLRQ,WPD\HYHQEHDFKLHYHGWKURXJKPHDVXUHVQHHGHGWR
FRQWUROWKHSROOXWDQWVFRYHUHGXQGHUWKHILUVWGDXJKWHU'LUHFWLYHFXUUHQWHYLGHQFH
VXJJHVWVWKDWWKHVHZLOOQHHGWREHPRUHVWULQJHQWWKDQWKHPHDVXUHVLGHQWLILHGLQWKH
HDUOLHU,90  VWXG\ZKLFKZDVXVHGKHUHLQIRUPXODWLRQRIWKHEDVHOLQHVFHQDULR


$($7HFKQRORJ\
 5HIHUHQFHV

$&($HXURSLD XQGDWHG (XURSHDQ3URJUDPPHRQ(PLVVLRQV)XHOVDQG(QJLQH


7HFKQRORJLHV5HSRUWWRWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,$XWR2LO,3URJUDPPH
$&*,+&KHPLFDO6XEVWDQFHV7/9&RPPLWWHH  1RWLFHRILQWHQGHGFKDQJHFDUERQ
PRQR[LGH$SSOLHGRFFXSDWLRQDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDOK\JLHQH  
$QGHUVRQ(:HWDO  (IIHFWRIORZOHYHOFDUERQPRQR[LGHH[SRVXUHRQRQVHWDQG
GXUDWLRQRIDQJLQDSHFWRULVDVWXG\LQWHQSDWLHQWVZLWKLVFKDHPLFKHDUWGLVHDVH$QQDOVRI
LQWHUQDOPHGLFLQH
$URQRZ:6HWDO  (IIHFWRIIUHHZD\WUDYHORQDQJLQDSHFWRULV$QQDOVRILQWHUQDO
PHGLFLQH
$URQRZ:6DQG,VEHOO0:  &DUERQPRQR[LGHHIIHFWRQH[HUFLVHLQGXFHGDQJLQD
SHFWRULV$QQDOVRILQWHUQDOPHGLFLQH
$XWR2LO  $LU4XDOLW\5HSRUWRIWKH$XWR2LO3URJUDPPH6XEJURXS(XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,'REWDLQHGIURP'U$16NRXORXGLV(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ
-RLQW5HVHDUFK&HQWUH,VSUD(,73, 9$ ,WDO\
%DWHV.&KULVWLDQ)&LYDL0&OD\GRQ0'UHHW]&0RO\QHX[06WHQKRXVH-
7UHWWLQ.9LLQDQHQ5DQG6LPSVRQ%-  5HYLHZRI(XURSHDQ2LO,QGXVWU\
%HQ]HQH([SRVXUH'DWD  5HSRUWQXPEHU&21&$:(%UXVVHOV
1RYHPEHU
%DWHV.&RUGLQJOH\1&KULVWLDQ)/HZLV66WDQWRQ'7LQGOH3:HVWHUQ1DQG
6LPSVRQ%-  $SUHOLPLQDU\VWXG\RIDPELHQWFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRIEHQ]HQHDURXQG
VHUYLFHVWDWLRQVDQGGLVWULEXWLRQWHUPLQDOVLQ(XURSH5HSRUWQXPEHU&21&$:(
%UXVVHOV$XJXVW
%HQLJQXV9$HWDO  (IIHFWRIORZOHYHOFDUERQPRQR[LGHRQFRPSHQVDWRU\WUDFNLQJ
DQGHYHQWPRQLWRULQJ1HXURWR[LFRORJ\DQGWHUDWRORJ\
%HQQHWW5-%RVFK:&URFLDQL*)UHGULNVVRQ0/DXPDQQ+-/OXFK8USL-
/RGJH*6LQQHQ+'DQG6WHLQHU0  ,QWHULP5HSRUWRQWKH(XURSHDQ5HILQLQJ
,PSOLFDWLRQVRI6HYHUH5HIRUPXODWLRQRI*DVROLQHDQGGLHVHOIXHO5HSRUWQXPEHU
&21&$:(%UXVVHOV-XQH
%RQG**0F/DUHQ($%DOGZLQ&/DQG&RRN55  $QXSGDWHRIPRUWDOLW\
DPRQJFKHPLFDOZRUNHUVH[SRVHGWREHQ]HQH%U-,QG0HG
%XUQHWW57'DOHV5(%URRN-55DL]HQQH0(.UHZVL' D $VVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQ
DPELHQWFDUERQPRQR[LGHOHYHOVDQGKRVSLWDOL]DWLRQVIRUFRQJHVWLYHKHDUWIDLOXUHLQWKH
HOGHUO\LQ&DQDGLDQFLWLHV(SLGHPLRORJ\
%XUQHWW57&DNPDN6%URRN-5.UHZVL' E 7KHUROHRISDUWLFXODWHVL]HDQG
FKHPLVWU\LQWKHDVVRFLDWLRQEHWZHHQVXPPHUWLPHDPELHQWDLUSROOXWLRQDQGKRVSLWDOL]DWLRQ
IRUFDUGLRUHVSLUDWRU\GLVHDVHV(QYLURQ+HDOWK3HUVSHFW

$($7HFKQRORJ\

&(&  $FRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVVWXG\RIWKHYDULRXVPHDVXUHVWKDWDUHOLNHO\WRUHGXFH
SROOXWDQWHPLVVLRQVIURPURDGYHKLFOHVIRUWKH\HDU3UHSDUHGE\7RXFKH5RVV
0DQDJHPHQW&RQVXOWDQWV(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ%UXVVHOV
&KHP6\VWHPV  )XUWKHU5HVHDUFKLQWRWKH&RVWVRIWKH3URSRVHG6WDJH,,&RQWUROV
DQG2QERDUG9DSRXU5HFRYHU\)LQDOUHSRUWSURGXFHGIRUWKH'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH
(QYLURQPHQW/RQGRQ
&KHVKLUH&RXQW\&RXQFLO  $OWHUQDWLYH)XHOVIRU3XEOLF7UDQVSRUW)XHOV
&RG\536WUDZGHUPDQ::DQG.LSHQ+0  +HPDWRORJLFHIIHFWVRIEHQ]HQH
-REVSHFLILFWUHQGVGXULQJWKHILUVW\HDURIHPSOR\PHQWDPRQJDFRKRUWRIEHQ]HQH
H[SRVHGUXEEHUZRUNHUV-2FFXS0HG
&20($3 &RPPLWWHHRQWKH0HGLFDO(IIHFWVRI$LU3ROOXWDQWVRIWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI
+HDOWK   4XDQWLILFDWLRQRIWKHHIIHFWVRIDLUSROOXWLRQRQKHDOWKLQWKH8QLWHG
.LQJGRP/RQGRQ7KH6WDWLRQHU\2IILFH
&21&$:(  &ORVLQJWKHJDVROLQHV\VWHPFRQWURORIJDVROLQHHPLVVLRQVIURPWKH
GLVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPDQGYHKLFOHV5HSRUWQXPEHU&21&$:(%UXVVHOV$SULO
&25,1$,5  6XPPDU\UHSRUWIRU(XURSHDQ7RSLF&HQWUHRQ$LU
(PLVVLRQV(XURSHDQ(QYLURQPHQW$JHQF\
&5(  9RODWLOHRUJDQLFFRPSRXQGHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHGRPHVWLFFRPEXVWLRQRIVROLG
PLQHUDOIXHOVLQWKH8.&5(UHSRUWQR)$7SUHSDUHGIRU:DUUHQ6SULQJ/DERUDWRU\
XQGHUFRQWUDFWWRWKH8.'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH(QYLURQPHQW$SULO
&5(  %HQ]HQHHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHGRPHVWLFFRPEXVWLRQRIFRDOµ&5(UHSRUWQR
SUHSDUHGIRU$($7HFKQRORJ\XQGHUFRQWUDFWWRWKH8.'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH
(QYLURQPHQW0DUFK
'H6DHJHU(*HUEROHV03pUH]%DOOHVWD3$PDQWLQL/DQG3D\ULVVDW0  $LU
4XDOLW\0HDVXUHPHQWVLQ%UXVVHOV  12 DQG%7;PRQLWRULQJFDPSDLJQVE\


GLIIXVLYHVDPSOHUV5HSRUWQXPEHU(85(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ/X[HPERXUJ
(&'*;,  &RPPXQLFDWLRQWRWKH&RXQFLODQGWKH3DUOLDPHQWRQD)XWXUH6WUDWHJ\
IRUWKH&RQWURORI$WPRVSKHULF(PLVVLRQVIURP5RDG7UDQVSRUW7DNLQJLQWR$FFRXQWWKH
5HVXOWVRIWKH$XWR2LO3URJUDPPH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,%UXVVHOV
(3$46  %HQ]HQH5HSRUWE\WKH([SHUW3DQHORQ$LU4XDOLW\6WDQGDUGVIRUWKH
'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH(QYLURQPHQW+062/RQGRQ
(3()( XQGDWHG 5HSRUWRQWKH(XURSHDQ3URJUDPPHRQ(PLVVLRQV)XHOVDQG(QJLQH
7HFKQRORJLHVSURGXFHGE\$&($HXURSLD
(3$46  &DUERQ0RQR[LGH5HSRUWE\WKH([SHUW3DQHORQ$LU4XDOLW\6WDQGDUGV
IRUWKH'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH(QYLURQPHQW+062/RQGRQ
(UH[VRQ*/:LOPHU-/6WHLQKDJHQ:+DQG.OLQJHUPDQ$'  ,QGXFWLRQWR
F\WRJHQHWLFGDPDJHLQURGHQWVDIWHUVKRUWWHUPLQKDODWLRQRIEHQ]HQH(QYLURQ0XWDJHQ

(768  $OWHUQDWLYH5RDG7UDQVSRUW)XHOV$3UHOLPLQDU\/LIH&\FOH6WXG\IRUWKH
8.+062/RQGRQ


$($7HFKQRORJ\
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ  $ZHOIDUHFRVWDVVHVVPHQWRIYDULRXVPHDVXUHVWRUHGXFH
SROOXWDQWHPLVVLRQVIURPSDVVHQJHUURDGYHKLFOHVIRUWKH\HDU)LQDOUHSRUW(XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQ'*,,,2FWREHU
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ E 0HWKRGRORJ\UHSRUWIRUWKH(&'*;,,-28/(
3URJUDPPH([WHUQ(VWXG\(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ%UXVVHOV
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,  $LU4XDOLW\5HSRUWRIWKH$XWR2LO3URJUDPPH
5HSRUWRI6XE*URXS(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,$XWR2LO,3URJUDPPH5HSRUW
1XPEHU;
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ  7KH(XURSHDQ$XWR2LO3URJUDPPH$UHSRUWE\WKH
'LUHFWRUDWH*HQHUDOVIRU,QGXVWU\(QHUJ\DQG(QYLURQPHQW&LYLO3URWHFWLRQDQG1XFOHDU
6DIHW\RIWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ5HSRUWQXPEHU;
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ  &20  ILQDO3URSRVDOIRUD&RXQFLO'LUHFWLYH
UHODWLQJWROLPLWYDOXHVIRUVXOSKXUGLR[LGHR[LGHVRIQLWURJHQSDUWLFXODWHPDWWHUDQGOHDGLQ
DPELHQWDLU(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ2FWREHU
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ  5HYLVHG0HWKRGRORJ\UHSRUWIRUWKH(&'*;,,-28/(
3URJUDPPH([WHUQ(VWXG\(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ%UXVVHOV WREHSXEOLVKHG
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ12   3RVLWLRQ3DSHURQ$PELHQW$LU


3ROOXWLRQE\12 (XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,


([[RQ%LRPHGLFDO6FLHQFHV  6FLHQWLILFEDVLVIRUDQDLUTXDOLW\VWDQGDUGRQEHQ]HQH


5HSRUWQXPEHU&21&$:(%UXVVHOV'HFHPEHU
)DUULV*0(YHULWW-,,URQV5'DQG3RSS-$  &DUFLQRJHQLFLW\RILQKDOHG
EHQ]HQHLQ&%$PLFH)XQGDP$SSO7RFLFRO
*HQQDUW-36DQGHUVRQ-7DQG6LPSVRQ%-  ([SRVXUHDQGKHDOWKULVNV
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKQRQRFFXSDWLRQDOVRXUFHVRIEHQ]HQH5HSRUWQXPEHU&21&$:(
%UXVVHOV6HSWHPEHU
+HFT3YDQ$DOVW5+DXHU$%DUQHV5%DXPDQ5GH6DHJHU(/HEUHGH)UHLWDV
&&5HD-5XGROI:YDQGHQ+RXW'YDQ/HHXZHQ5  62 3RVLWLRQ3DSHU


(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,-XO\
+XJKHVHWDO  FLWHGLQ%HQ]HQH3RVLWLRQ3DSHU'UDIWIURPWKH:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ
%HQ]HQH
+XUOH\-)&KHUULH-:DQG0DFODUHQ:  ([SRVXUHWREHQ]HQHDQGPRUWDOLW\
IURPOHXNHPLDUHVXOWVIURPFRNHRYHQDQGRWKHUFRDOSURGXFWZRUNHUV%U-,QG0HG

,90  (FRQRPLFHYDOXDWLRQRIDLUTXDOLW\WDUJHWVIRUVXOSKXUGLR[LGHQLWURJHQ
GLR[LGHILQHDQGVXVSHQGHGSDUWLFXODWHPDWWHUDQGOHDG)LQDO5HSRUWWR(XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,,QVWLWXWHIRU(QYLURQPHQWDO6WXGLHV9ULMH8QLYHUVLWHLW$PVWHUGDP
2FWREHU
-RKQVRQ&HWDO  $5HJXODWRU\$SSUDLVDORI$LU4XDOLW\2EMHFWLYHVIRU12 DQG
[

30 $($7HFKQRORJ\5HSRUWWR8.'(75


.DUDFLF96NHQGHU/%RVQHU&XFDQFLF%DQG%RJDGL6DUH$  3RVVLEOH


JHQRWR[LFLW\LQORZOHYHOEHQ]HQHH[SRVXUH$P-,QG0HG

$($7HFKQRORJ\

.LQQH\3/,WR.7KXUVWRQ*'  $VHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVRIPRUWDOLW\30
DVVRFLDWLRQVLQ/RV$QJHOHV,QKDODWLRQ7R[LFRORJ\
/DQVVW\UHOVHQ2UHEUR,DQ  $LUTXDOLW\PRQLWRULQJLQXUEDQHQYLURQPHQW
/DQVVW\UHOVHQ2UHEUR,DQ3XEOLFDWLRQ1R LQ6ZHGLVK 
/DWLHV9*DQG0HULJDQ:+  %HKDYLRUDOHIIHFWVRIFDUERQPRQR[LGHRQDQLPDOV
DQGPHQ$QQXDOUHYLHZRISKDUPDFRORJ\DQGWR[LFRORJ\
/DZWKHU3-DQG&RPPLQV%7  &LJDUHWWHVPRNLQJDQGH[SRVXUHWRFDUERQ
PRQR[LGH$QQ1HZ<RUN$FDG6FL
/HZLV6-DQG6LPSVRQ%-  $\HDUORQJVWXG\RIDPELHQWDLUFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRI
EHQ]HQHDURXQGDVHUYLFHVWDWLRQ5HSRUWQXPEHU&21&$:(%UXVVHOV-DQXDU\

/RQJR/'  7KHELRORJLFDOHIIHFWVRIFDUERQPRQR[LGHRQWKHSUHJQDQWZRPDQ
IHWXVDQGQHZERUQLQIDQW$PHULFDQ-RXUQDORI2EVWHWULFVDQG*\QHFRORJ\
0DMRU--DNDE0.LVV*DQG7RPSD$  &KURPRVRPHDEHUUDWLRQVLVWHU
FKURPDWLGH[FKDQJHSUROLIHUDWLYHUDWHLQGH[DQGVHUXPWKLRF\DQDWHFRQFHQWUDWLRQLQ
VPRNHUVH[SRVHGWRORZGRVHEHQ]HQH(QYLURQ0RO0XWDJHQ
0F$UUDJKHU-6%HFNHU5)*RRGIHOORZ&/-HIIUH\-*0RUJDQ7'%6FRUOHWWL
36QHOJURYH'*=HPURFK3-DQG+XWFKHVRQ5&  7KHLQIOXHQFHRIJDVROLQH
EHQ]HQHDQGDURPDWLFVFRQWHQWRQEHQ]HQHH[KDXVWHPLVVLRQVIURPQRQFDWDO\VWDQG
FDWDO\VWHTXLSSHGFDUV$VWXG\RI(XURSHDQGDWD5HSRUWQXPEHU&21&$:(
%UXVVHOV-DQXDU\
3DVVDQW15  92&HPLVVLRQVIURPVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHVLQWKH8.:DUUHQ6SULQJ
/DERUDWRU\UHSRUW/5
3pUH]%DOOHVWD33D\ULVVDW0'H6DHJHU(&DQFHOLQKD-DQG*DODWD5  %7;
PRQLWRULQJFDPSDLJQLQWKHFLW\RI&DWDQLD5HSRUWQXPEHU(85(XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQ/X[HPERXUJ
3ODSSHUW8%DUWKHO(DQG6HLGHO+-  5HGXFWLRQRIEHQ]HQHWR[LFLW\E\WROXHQH
(QYLURQ0RO0XWDJHQ
3RORQLHFNL-'$WNLQVRQ5:3RQFHGH/HRQ$DQG$QGHUVRQ+5  'DLO\WLPH
VHULHVIRUFDUGLRYDVFXODUKRVSLWDODGPLVVLRQVDQGSUHYLRXVGD\·VDLUSROOXWLRQLQ/RQGRQ
8.2FFXSDWLRQDODQG(QYLURQPHQWDO0HGLFLQH
325*  2]RQHLQWKH8QLWHG.LQJGRP7KLUGUHSRUWRIWKH8.
3KRWRFKHPLFDO2[LGDQWV5HYLHZ*URXS'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH(QYLURQPHQW7UDQVSRUWDQG
WKH5HJLRQV/RQGRQ
3RUVWPDQQHWDO  FLWHGLQ%HQ]HQH3RVLWLRQ3DSHU'UDIWIURPWKH:RUNLQJ*URXS
RQ%HQ]HQH
3XW]95  7KHHIIHFWVRIFDUERQPRQR[LGHRQGXDOWDVNSHUIRUPDQFH+XPDQIDFWRUV
  
5DDVFKRX1LHOVHQ2/RKVH&7KRPVHQ%/6NRY+DQG2OVHQ-+ LQSUHVV
$PELHQWDLUOHYHOVDQGWKHH[SRVXUHRIFKLOGUHQWREHQ]HQHWROXHQHDQG[\OHQHVLQ
'HQPDUN$FFHSWHGE\(QYLURQPHQWDO5HVHDUFK6HSWHPEHU


$($7HFKQRORJ\
5LFKDUGV+'*RUNH:/LQGEHUJ%YDQ2SKHP*$6PLWKHUV$%:DOWHU-DQG
(OOLV5-  92&HPLVVLRQVIURPJDVROLQHGLVWULEXWLRQDQGVHUYLFHVWDWLRQVLQZHVWHUQ
(XURSHFRQWUROWHFKQRORJ\DQGFRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVV5HSRUWQXPEHU&21&$:(
%UXVVHOV0DUFK
5LQVNH\5$6PLWK$%+RUQXQJ5)LOORRQ7*<RXQJ5-2NXQ$+DQG
/DQGULJDQ3-  %HQ]HQHDQGOHXNHPLD$QHSLGHPLRORJLFULVNDVVHVVPHQW1(QJO
-0HG
5RELQVRQ5$37:RRGV7*DUGLQHU156ZDQQ5+3DUWULGJH$$QGUHZV%
*RRG\+-5XGG ,70DUORZH  ´0HDVXUHPHQWVRIWKHHPLVVLRQVRIYRODWLOH
RUJDQLFFRPSRXQGVSURGXFHGDWDUHWDLOSHWUROILOOLQJVWDWLRQµ8.1DWLRQDO3K\VLFDO
/DERUDWRU\5HSRUW40
5RELQVRQ5$37:RRGV%$*RRG\7*DUGLQHU,-8SULFKDUG$$QGUHZV+
'·6RX]D'$OSKRQVR 156ZDQQ  ´0HDVXUHPHQWVRIWKHHPLVVLRQVRIYRODWLOH
RUJDQLFFRPSRXQGVSURGXFHGE\DUHWDLOSHWUROILOOLQJVWDWLRQHTXLSSHGZLWKYDSRXU
UHFRYHU\µ1DWLRQDO3K\VLFDO/DERUDWRU\5HSRUW406
5RVHQWKDO*-DQG6Q\GHU&$  ,QKDOHGEHQ]HQHUHGXFHVDVSHFWVRIFHOOPHGLDWHG
WXPRUVXUYHLOODQFHLQPLFH7R[LFRO$SSO3KDUPDFRO
5XGG+-´(PLVVLRQVRIYRODWLOHRUJDQLFFRPSRXQGVIURPVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHVLQWKH8QLWHG
.LQJGRP6SHFLDWLRQµ$($7HFKQRORJ\UHSRUW$($&65(0$,668(

6DOZD\$**RRGZLQ-:/DQG(JJOHVWRQ+6  8.(PLVVLRQVRI$LU3ROOXWDQWV
1DWLRQDO$WPRVSKHULF(PLVVLRQV,QYHQWRU\SUHSDUHGIRUWKH'HSDUWPHQWRI
WKH(QYLURQPHQW/RQGRQ$SULO
6FKZDUW]-DQG0RUULV5  $LUSROOXWLRQDQGKRVSLWDODGPLVVLRQVIRUFDUGLRYDVFXODU
GLVHDVHLQ'HWURLW0LFKLJDQ$P-(SLGHP
6KHSV'6HWDO  /DFNRIHIIHFWRIORZOHYHOVRIFDUER[\KHPRJORELQRQFDUGLRYDVFXODU
IXQFWLRQLQSDWLHQWVZLWKLVFKHPLFKHDUWGLVHDVH$UFKLYHVRIHQYLURQPHQWDOKHDOWK
6Q\GHU&$*ROGVWHLQ%'6HOODNXPDU$5%URPEHUJ,/DVNLQ6$OEHUW5(
 7KHLQKDODWLRQWR[LFRORJ\RIEHQ]HQHLQFLGHQFHRIKHPDWRSRLHWLFQHRSODVPVDQG
KHPDWRWR[LFLW\LQ$.5-DQG&%/-PLFH7R[LFRO$SSO3KDUPDFRO
6RFLpWpIUDQFDLVHGHVDQWpSXEOLTXH  /DSROOXWLRQDWPRVSKHULTXHG·RULJLQHDXWRPRELOH
HWODVDQWpSXEOLTXH&ROOHFWLRQ6DQWpHWVRFLpWpQRPDL
7RXFKH5RVV  $FRVWHIIHFWLYHQHVVVWXG\RIWKHYDULRXVPHDVXUHVWKDWDUHOLNHO\WR
UHGXFHSROOXWDQWHPLVVLRQVIURPURDGYHKLFOHVIRUWKH\HDU5HSRUWWR(XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQ'*,,,,QGXVWU\'LYLVLRQ
7RXORXPL*3RFRFN6-.DWVRX\DQQL.DQG7ULFKRSRXORV'  6KRUWWHUP
HIIHFWVRIDLUSROOXWLRQRQGDLO\PRUWDOLW\LQ$WKHQVDWLPHVHULHVDQDO\VLV,QW-(SLGHP

7RXORXPL*6DPROL(.DWVRX\DQQL.  'DLO\PRUWDOLW\DQG´ZLQWHUW\SHµDLU
SROOXWLRQLQ$WKHQV*UHHFHDWLPHVHULHVDQDO\VLVZLWKLQWKH$3+($SURMHFW-(SLGHPLRO
&RPPXQ+HDOWK 6XSS 66

$($7HFKQRORJ\

75/  7KH(QYLURQPHQWDO$VVHVVPHQWRI7UDIILF0DQDJHPHQW6FKHPHV$/LWHUDWXUH
5HYLHZ75/5HSRUW1R
7:*3  $PELHQW$LU3ROOXWLRQE\3DUWLFXODWH0DWWHU3RVLWLRQ3DSHU3URGXFHGE\
WKH7HFKQLFDO:RUNLQJ*URXSRQ3DUWLFOHVIRUWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,$SULO

81(&(  ´(PLVVLRQVRIYRODWLOHRUJDQLFFRPSRXQGV 92& IURPVWDWLRQDU\VRXUFHV
DQGSRVVLELOLWLHVRIWKHLUFRQWUROµ81(&(92&7DVN)RUFH5HSRUW
86(3$  $LUTXDOLW\FULWHULDIRUFDUERQPRQR[LGH86(3$2IILFHRI5HVHDUFKDQG
'HYHORSPHQWSXEOLFDWLRQQXPEHU(3$%)
9DQGHQ+RXW'  &23RVLWLRQ3DSHU GUDIW 5HSRUWSUHSDUHGIRU(XURSHDQ
&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,LQVXSSRUWRIWKH([SHUW*URXSRQ&2712WKH1HWKHUODQGV
:DOODFH/  0DMRUVRXUFHVRIEHQ]HQHH[SRVXUH(QYLURQPHQWDO+HDOWK3HUVSHFWLYHV

:HQERUQ0-,70DUORZH0-:RRGILHOG153DVVDQW6-5LFKDUGVRQ0$
(PPRWW5):DUUHQ60/HJJHWW+0$S6LPRQ 66PLWK´92&HPLVVLRQVLQ
(XURSH$QDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUDEDWHPHQWDQGDQHVWLPDWHRIWKHDVVRFLDWHG
FRVWVµ$($7HFKQRORJ\UHSRUW$($&65(0$,VVXH
:+2  %HQ]HQH(QYLURQPHQWDO+HDOWK&ULWHULD:+2*HQHYD
:+2  :+2$LU4XDOLW\*XLGHOLQHVIRU(XURSH'UDIWXSGDWHPDWHULDOSDVVHGWR
(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ'*;,:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQLVDWLRQ(XURSHDQ&HQWUHIRU
(QYLURQPHQWDQG+HDOWK'HFHPEHU
:RQJ2  $QLQGXVWU\ZLGHPRUWDOLW\VWXG\RIFKHPLFDOZRUNHUVRFFXSDWLRQDOO\
H[SRVHGWREHQ]HQH,,'RVHUHVSRQVHDQDO\VLV%U-,QG0HG
<LQ61/L*/7DLQ)')X=,-LQ&&KHQ<-/XR6-<H3=:DQJ*
&=KDQJ;&:X+1DQG=KRQJ4&  /HXNHPLDLQEHQ]HQHZRUNHUVD
UHWURVSHFWLYHFRKRUWVWXG\%U-,QG0HG


$($7HFKQRORJ\

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi