UNDER EMBARGO UNTIL 10th SEPTEMBER 2019, 7 AM EST

Canada
Federal Voting Intentions
10th September 2019
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted between September 6th to 8th,
2019 among a sample of 1876 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is
intended to represent the voting population of
Canada.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was sponsored by iPolitics and Groupe
Capitales Médias.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commerically
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials,
respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.26% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on international
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
is a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
TRUDEAU LIBERALS OPEN UP LEAD: LPC 38%, CPC 34%, NDP 8%, GREEN 11%

10th September 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Liberal Party of Canada has opened up a four-
point lead over the opposition Conservatives as the 43rd general election is about to get
under way.

Those are the findings of a Mainstreet Research/iPolitics/Groupe Capitales Médias poll,

which surveyed 1876 Canadians between September 6th to 8th. The survey has a margin of
error of +/- 2.26% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“This is bad news for Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives as the Liberals have crossed the
40% mark in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO
of Mainstreet Research. “If the election were held today, the Liberals would comfortably win
a majority.”

“The solace for the other parties is that the election is not going to be held today and that
they will have the entire writ period to chip into the Liberal lead.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 37.5%, while the
Conservatives with Andrew Scheer at the helm have 34%. The NDP with Jagmeet Singh as
leader have 8.4% and the Green Party led by Elizabeth May come in with 10.8%. The People’s
Party with Maxime Bernier have 4.6%. The Bloc Quebecois with Yves-Francois Blanchet as
leader have 3.6% nationally, but have 15.5% support in Quebec.

“The regional differences that we have been observing for a while are becoming more and
more pronounced,” continued Maggi. “While the Liberals have built up bigger leads east of
Manitoba, the Conservatives have widened the gap between themselves and the Liberals in
British Columbia and Alberta.”

The federal election is scheduled to be held on October 21st. Mainstreet Research will be
providing daily updates on federal voting intentions along with other insights exclusively to
iPolitics as part of its 2019 Premium Election Package.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 All Voters
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
for?

11.1%

0.7%
4.2%
33.3%

9.1%

2.9%
All Voters

7.4%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
31.3%

11% 1.1%
4.6%
Liberals Conservatives
1.2% NDP Bloc Québécois Greens
10.8%
3.5%
People's Party Another Party Undecided
34.9%
5.7%
3.6% 37.5%

3%

8.4% All Voters

Decided and Leaning Voters
9.1%

31.6%
34%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois

Liberals Conservatives
Greens People's Party NDP Bloc Québécois
Another Party Undecided Greens

People's Party Another Party

Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Men Women 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 33.3% 30.3% 36.3% 29% 37% 33.2% 35.1% 24% 17.3% 21.7% 40.3% 34.8% 45.4%
Conservative, Scheer 31.3% 36.6% 26.1% 30.5% 29.7% 34.7% 29.7% 34.7% 58.2% 48.5% 27.4% 19.3% 26.5%
NDP, Singh 7.4% 6.9% 8% 9.5% 7.7% 5% 7.6% 11.4% 3.7% 10.6% 6.5% 8.2% 5.3%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 2.9% 3% 2.7% 1.4% 2.3% 3.9% 4.3% - - - - 12.3% -
Green, May 9.1% 7.8% 10.4% 10.4% 8% 8.8% 9.2% 15.6% 6.5% 7.1% 8.2% 7.8% 11.8%
People's Party, Bernier 4.2% 6% 2.5% 6.5% 5% 2.8% 1.8% 5% 4% 4.5% 5.1% 3.2% 1.4%
Another Party 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% - 0.9% 0.4% -
Undecided 11.1% 8.6% 13.4% 12.7% 9.5% 10.5% 11.5% 8.3% 9.3% 7.6% 11.6% 14% 9.5%
Unweighted Frequency 1876 1042 834 310 489 591 486 275 184 121 673 498 125
Weighted Frequency 1876 929 947 522 470 517 368 256 212 122 719 438 129

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 35.8% 32.4% 39.2% 32.2% 39.3% 34.8% 38.1% 24.3% 19.7% 23.8% 43.1% 38.5% 46.8%
Conservative, Scheer 32.7% 37.4% 28% 31.8% 30.3% 36.4% 31.7% 36% 60.9% 49.8% 28.9% 20.2% 27.4%
NDP, Singh 8.1% 7.4% 8.7% 10.2% 8.1% 5.8% 8.1% 12.3% 3.7% 10.6% 7.2% 8.4% 8%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 3.5% 3.3% 3.6% 1.8% 3.5% 4.3% 4.6% - - - - 14.8% -
Green, May 10.3% 8.5% 12.1% 11.6% 9.6% 9.8% 10.3% 17.4% 7.3% 7.9% 9.6% 9.2% 11.8%
People's Party, Bernier 4.4% 6.3% 2.6% 7% 5.2% 2.8% 1.8% 5% 4% 4.5% 5.1% 4% 1.4%
Another Party 1.1% 1.2% 1% 0.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1% 1.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% -
Undecided 4.1% 3.5% 4.7% 4.5% 2.7% 4.8% 4.4% 3% 3.3% 2.1% 4.9% 4.2% 4.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1876 1042 834 310 489 591 486 275 184 121 673 498 125
Weighted Frequency 1876 929 947 522 470 517 368 256 212 122 719 438 129

(decided and leaning voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 37.5% 33.7% 41.2% 33.8% 40.5% 36.7% 40% 25.1% 20.4% 24.4% 45.3% 40.3% 49.1%
Conservative, Scheer 34% 38.7% 29.4% 33.3% 31% 38.2% 33% 37.1% 63% 50.8% 30.4% 21% 28.7%
NDP, Singh 8.4% 7.6% 9.1% 10.7% 8.4% 6% 8.5% 12.8% 3.8% 10.8% 7.5% 8.8% 8.4%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 3.6% 3.4% 3.8% 1.9% 3.6% 4.6% 4.9% - - - - 15.5% -
Green, May 10.8% 8.8% 12.7% 12.1% 9.8% 10.4% 10.7% 18% 7.6% 8.1% 10.1% 9.6% 12.4%
People's Party, Bernier 4.6% 6.5% 2.7% 7.3% 5.4% 3% 1.9% 5.1% 4.1% 4.6% 5.4% 4.1% 1.4%
Another Party 1.1% 1.2% 1% 1% 1.4% 1.2% 1% 2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% -
Unweighted Frequency 1800 1004 796 297 476 562 465 266 178 118 644 475 119
Weighted Frequency 1800 891 909 500 451 496 353 245 204 117 690 420 123
Full Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
for?
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet
(only given as an option in Quebec)
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards? (only asked of

respondents who were undecided in previous question)
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet (only given as an option in
Quebec)
Another Party
Undecided

What is your gender?

Male
Female

What is your age group?

18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between September 6th
to 8th 2019, among a sample of 1876 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population
of Canada.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics and
Groupe Capitales Médias.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.26% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 3.04%, Females: +/- 3.39%,
18-34 age group: +/- 5.57%, 35-49 age group: +/- 4.43%, 50-64 age group: +/- 4.03%, 65+
age group: +/- 4.45%, British Columbia: +/- 5.91%, Alberta: +/- 7.22%, Prairies: +/- 8.91%,
Ontario: +/- 3.78%, Quebec: +/- 4.39%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 8.77%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.