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¿Existe relación entre lo que una empresa gasta en publicidad y el importe de sus
ventas?
¿Existe relación entre el número de años de antigüedad en el trabajo y la
productividad ?
62 / 1
Una medida que describe la intensidad de la relación lineal entre dos variables medidas
en escala intervalar o de razón es el coeficiente de correlación definido por :
Pn
i=1 xi · yi − nx · y
r= q P
( n 2 2
Pn 2 2
i=1 i − nx )( i=1 yi − ny )
x
Notación:
r : Coefiente de correlación que toma valores entre -1 y 1.
I Si r es cercano a 1, hay alta correlación y la variación de ambas variables es en
la misma dirección.
I Si r es próximo a cero, hay poca correlación.
I Si r es cercano a -1, hay alta correlación y la variación de ambas es en sentido
contrario.
63 / 1
Correlación: Midiendo asociación lineal
1.0
1.0
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x x x
64 / 1
Correlación: Midiendo asociación lineal
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−4 −2 0 2 4 −4 −2 0 2 4 −4 −2 0 2 4
x x x
65 / 1
Correlación: Midiendo asociación lineal
4
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x x x
66 / 1
Objetivo del análisis de regresión
Si la relación es gobernada por un proceso fı́sico o por leyes bien aceptadas, es decir,
y ≈ f (x; θ),
y el interés recae en estimar el vector de parámetros θ = (α, β)> .
72 / 1
Cuarteto de regresiones “idénticas” de Anscombe (1973)
12
12
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10
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y1
y2
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8
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6
6
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4
4
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5 10 15 5 10 15
x1 x2
●
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12
12
10
10
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y4
8
8
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6
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4
5 10 15 5 10 15
x3 x4
77 / 1
Modelo de Regresión Lineal Simple
78 / 1
Estimación de función de regresión
sea mı́nimo.
Los valores de α y β1 que minimizan a S(α, β1 ) se obtiene resolviendo el siguiente
sistema:
∂S(α, β1 )
=0
∂α
∂S(α, β1 )
=0
∂β1
79 / 1
Estimación de función de regresión
en efecto
n
∂S(α, β) X
= −2 (yi − α − βxi )
∂α i=1
n
∂S(α, β) X
= −2 (yi − α − βxi )xi
∂β i=1
80 / 1
Estimación de función de regresión
81 / 1