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SURVEY

LLC MC CC TOTAL UNITS DEMAND


3 YEARS 28 24 103 155 52
5 YEARS 29 52 105 186 37

89

SMP 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


LLC 219 250 281 356 397
GR 0.1416 0.1240 0.2669 0.1152 0.1619
MC 206 285 367 411 533
GR 0.3835 0.2877 -0.1199 0.2968 0.2120
CC 370 659 952 1256 1450
GR 0.7811 0.4446 0.3193 0.1545 0.4249
TOTAL 795 1194 1600 2023 2380

PAST & PROJECTED COMPUTATION

OVERALL PAST
ANNUAL PAST DEMAND OF
YEAR TOTAL SMP DEMAND DEMAND % SMART CANE
2014 795 89 78.316% 55329
2015 1194 89 78.316% 83098
2016 1600 89 78.316% 111355
2017 2023 89 78.316% 140794
2018 2380 89 78.316% 165640
2019 3554.1585192 89 90.316% 285259

LAPU LAPU CITY MANDAUE CITY


YEAR SMP YEAR SMP
2014 219 2014 206
2015 250 2015 285
2016 281 2016 367
2017 356 2017 411
2018 397 2018 533

YEAR LLC MC CC TOTAL


2014 219 206 370 795
2015 250 285 659 1194
2016 281 367 952 1600
2017 356 411 1256 2023
2018 397 533 1450 2380

YEAR PAST AND PROJECTED AGRIVET POPULATION

2014 795 795


2015 1194 1194
2016 1600 1600
2017 2023 2023
2018 2380 0.18 2380
BASE YEAR 2019 2380.2 1+ 0.18 2380.2
2020 2380.4 1+ 0.18 2380.4
2021 2380.5 1+ 0.18 2380.5
2022 2380.7 1+ 0.18 2380.7
2023 2380.9 1+ 0.18 2380.9
2024 2381.1 1+ 0.18 2381.1
yes

n= 475

no

2019
461.276777809
1.1619
646.017375788
1.2120
2066.0616671
1.4249
3173.3558207

CEBU CITY
YEAR SMP
2014 370
2015 659
2016 952
2017 1256
2018 1450
yes 349
372 73.474%
78.316%
no 23
4.842%

yes 57
103 12.000%
21.684%
no 46
9.684%
T Q a =
2014 55329 n =
2015 83098
2016 111355
2017 140794
2018 165640
2019 285259

T Y a + Yi-1
2014 55329 - -
2015 83098 45985.9370752 + 55328
2016 111355 45985.9370752 + 101314
2017 140794 45985.9370752 + 147300
2018 165640 45985.9370752 + 193286
2019 285259 45985.9370752 + 239272

ASLM

PROJECTED VALUES
T a + Yi-1 =
2020 45986 + 285258 =
2021 45986 + 331244 =
2022 45986 + 377230 =
2023 45986 + 423216 =
2024 45986 + 469202 =

% INCREASE
T Y (DECREASE) Yi+1 +
2014 55329 - 285263 +
2015 83098 50% 285262 +
2016 111355 34% 285261 +
2017 140794 26% 285260 +
2018 165640 18% 285259 +
2019 285259 72%
200% AGC

r = 0.0040099
1+r = 1.0040099

PROJECTED VALUES
T Yi-1 1+r = Yc
2020 285258 1.0040099 = 286401.851369707
2021 331244 1.0040099 = 332572.185487936
2022 377230 1.0040099 = 378742.519606166
2023 423216 1.0040099 = 424912.853724395
2024 469202 1.0040099 = 471083.187842625
T Y X �^� XY
2014 55329 1 1 55329.3221052632
2015 83098 2 4 166196.756210526
2016 111355 3 9 334063.831578947
2017 140794 4 16 563175.942736842
2018 165640 5 25 828199.915789474
2019 285259 6 36 1711554.0448888
841475 21 91 3658519.81330986

a = -2425.3805429
b = 40763.2176342
n = 6
� = 25516.7716354
PROJECTED VALUES
T a + b (x)
2020 -2425 + 40763.2176341946 11
2021 -2425 + 40763.2176341946 12
2022 -2425 + 40763.2176341946 13
2023 -2425 + 40763.2176341946 14
2024 -2425 + 40763.2176341946 15

T Y X �^� �^�
2014 55329 -5 25 625
2015 83098 -3 9 81
2016 111355 -1 1 1
2017 140794 1 1 1
2018 165640 3 9 81
2019 285259 5 25 625
841475 70 1414

a = 1189631104.69078
b = 20381.6088170973
c = 1989.325454591
n = 6
� = 1189514067.71466

PROJECTED VA
T a + b
2020 1189631104.69 + 20381.6088170973
2021 1189631104.69 + 20381.6088170973
2022 1189631104.69 + 20381.6088170973
2023 1189631104.69 + 20381.6088170973
2024 1189631104.69 + 20381.6088170973
METHODS OF PROJECTION
ARITHMETIC STRAIGHT LINE METHOD 40417
ARITHMETIC GEOMETRIC CURVE 26527328899.59
STATISTICAL STRAIGHT LINE 25516.7716354324
STATISTICAL PARABOLIC CURVE 1189514067.71466

YEAR PAST DEMAND ASL AGC

2014 55329
2015 83098
2016 111355
2017 140794
2018 165640
2019 285259
2020 331244 286401.851369707
2021 377230 332572.185487936
2022 423216 378742.519606166
2023 469202 424912.853724395
2024 515188 471083.187842625
STANDARD 40416.61 26527328899.59
DEVIATION
GROWTH
RATE
45986
6

= Yc Y-Yc 〖 (�−��) 〗 ^�
0 0
= 101314 -18216 331818323
= 147300 -35946 1292085133
= 193286 -52492 2755425565
= 239272 -73632 5421684273
= 285258 1 1
∑ 9801013295
� 40417

Yc
331244
377230
423216
469202
515188

(1+r) = Yc Y-Yc 〖 (�−��) 〗 ^�


1.0040099 = 285264 -229935 52869968759
1.0040099 = 285263 -202165 40870543856
1.0040099 = 285262 -173907 30243786900
1.0040099 = 285261 -144467 20870722704
1.0040099 = 285260 -119620 14308951178

AGC 159163973398
� 26527328899.59
a + b (x) =
-2425.3805429 + 40763.2176341946 1 =
-2425.3805429 + 40763.2176341946 2 =
-2425.3805429 + 40763.2176341946 3 =
-2425.3805429 + 40763.2176341946 4 =
-2425.3805429 + 40763.2176341946 5 =
-2425.3805429 + 40763.2176341946 6 =

SSL

= Yc
= 445970.013433195
= 486733.23106739
= 527496.448701584
= 568259.666335779
= 609022.883969973

XY �^𝟐 � a + B
-276646.61053 1383233.05263158 1189631104.69078 + 20381.6088170973
-249295.13432 747885.402947368 1189631104.69078 + 20381.6088170973
-111354.61053 111354.610526316 1189631104.69078 + 20381.6088170973
140793.98568 140793.985684211 1189631104.69078 + 20381.6088170973
496919.94947 1490759.84842105 1189631104.69078 + 20381.6088170973
1426295.0374 7131475.18703668 1189631104.69078 + 20381.6088170973
1426712.6172 11005502.0872472
3

PROJECTED VALUES
X + c �^� =
9 + 1989.325454591 81 =
11 + 1989.325454591 121 =
13 + 1989.325454591 169 =
15 + 1989.325454591 225 =
17 + 1989.325454591 289 =
SSL SPC

445970.01343 1189975674.5
486733.23107 1190096010.8
527496.4487 1190232261.6
568259.66634 1190384427.1
609022.88397 1190552507.1

25516.77 1189514067.71
Yc Y-Yc 〖 (�−��) 〗 ^�
38337.8370912 16991 288710562.98
79101.0547254 3997 15978594.20
119864.27236 -8510 72414344.52
160627.489994 -19834 393367893.20
201390.707628 -35751 1278114300.14
242153.925262 43105 1858048113.13
3906633808.17

x + C �^� = Yc
-5 + 1989.325454591 25 = 1189578929.78306
-3 + 1989.325454591 9 = 1189587863.79342
-1 + 1989.325454591 1 = 1189612712.40742
1 + 1989.325454591 1 = 1189653475.62506
3 + 1989.325454591 9 = 1189710153.44633
5 + 1989.325454591 25 = 1189782745.87123

Yc
1189975674.53
1190096010.77
1190232261.61
1190384427.05
1190552507.1
Y-Yc 〖 (�−��) 〗 ^�
-1189523600 1414966396053600000
-1189504765 1414921586945750000
-1189501358 1414913480200660000
-1189512682 1414940419780890000
-1189544513 1415016149510330000
-1189497487 1414904271255180000
8489662303746420000