Analysis” about the food grain requirement, water requirement, water balance

situation and availability or deficit of surface water and ground water in the
year 2025 based on 1995 data. The model can be suitably rectified if the
prediction is to be made for other year with other base year data. As most of
input data are available for the year 1995 and some predictions are available
for the year 2025, the model has been framed accordingly. For making the
prediction for 2025 certain assumptions like population growth, per capita
cereal intake, irrigated areas, rainfed area, etc. have been made. The main
objective of the model is to create various scenarios of food grain
requirements, water requirement and water balance situations based upon
various assumptions e.g. if populations growth rate comes down to 1.8% then
what will be the surface water situation in 2025, if the irrigated area is
increased by about 20% then what will be the situation, if yield increases with
the help of Biotechnology then what will happen. The user can also carry out
sensitivity analysis by exploring various available options. In the model the
unit for analysis is a sub-basin or a basin, even though analysis can be done
based on administrative boundaries i.e. state-wise.

4.7.2 Main Contributions of CWC in modification of PODIUM

software developed by IWMI, Colombo

1. The model `PODIUM for India” had the facility of operating it state-
wise only. The model was modified to operate basin wise as well as
state wise. Maximum sixty river basins can be analysed in the model.
For each river basin five scenarios can be saved at a time in the model.
2. Initially model was considering only one crop season in a year, which
was a major shortcoming in the Indian context. Now the model can
take into account two crop seasons. Further, it can also take into
account the perennial crops like sugarcane etc.
3. The percolation losses due to Paddy, Recharge of Ground water have
been accounted for in the model.
4. The Return flow into the rivers from various uses has been suitably
accounted for.
5. The evaporation from reservoirs, which was taken up lumpsum in the
model, has now been computed based on the percentage of live
storage in the reservoirs.
6. At the National level cereal requirement were computed based on daily
calorie intake per capita. The food grain requirements are now
computed based on food grain requirements in grams/ day/ capita.
7. The model has also been improved with inclusion of the quantity of
water required for non-consumptive use viz. navigation, environmental
and ecological purposes etc. so as to know the total water balance in
the basin/ state.
8. The basin wise water summary has been incorporated to indicate the
surpluses/ deficits of water in the region.
9. The following graphs have been incorporated in the model.
a) Pie-diagram showing sectoral water requirements in 1995 and 2025.
b) Bar diagram showing water availability and use along with the water
surplus or deficit in the basin for surface as well as ground water.

42