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Charles R. Nelson
Andrew F. Siegel
University of Washington
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474 Journal of Business
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Parsimonious Modeling 475
and the yield curve implied by the model displays the same range of
shapes.
Experimentationwith fittingthis model to bill yields suggestedthat it
is overparameterized.As the values of T1 and T2 were varied, it was
possible to findvalues of the 13'sthat gave nearlythe same fit. Standard
software for estimating nonlinear models failed to converge, giving
another indication of overparameterization.A more parsimonious
model that can generate the same range of shapes is given by the
solution equation for the case of equal roots:
r(m) = 0o + 1I exp(- m/T) + P2[(m/T) * exp(- m/T)]. (1)
This model may also be derived as an approximationto the solution in
the unequalroots case by expandingin a power series in the difference
between the roots. Model (1) may also be viewed as a constant plus a
Laguerre function, which suggests a method for generalization to
higher-ordermodels. Laguerrefunctions consist of a polynomialtimes
an exponentialdecay term and are a mathematicalclass of approximat-
ing functions; details may be found, for example, in Courantand Hil-
bert (1953, 1:93-97).
To obtain yield as a function of maturityfor the equal roots, model
(1) integratesr(-) in (1) from zero to m and divides by m. The resulting
function is
R(m) = Po + (PI + 02) [i -exp( -mIT)]I(mIT)
- 2 * exp(- m/T),
which is also linear in coefficients, given T. The limitingvalue of R(m)
as m gets large is 30oand as m gets small is (1o + ,1), which are
necessarily the same as for the forwardrate function since R(m) is just
an averagingof r(*). The rangeof shapes availablefor R(m) depends on
a single parametersince forT = 1, 300= 1, and (1o + , 1) = Owe have
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476 Journal of Business
L
j
C)
0 5 10
Time to maturity
FIG. 1.-Yield curveshapes
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Parsimonious Modeling 477
1.2 -
1.1
1*
0.9 - \long
0.8 - term
; 0.7 - \ short
,~ 0.6 \ term
(e-m)
0.5 -
medium
OA-. term
0.3 (m
0.2-
0.1
0
0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Time to maturity
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478 Journal of Business
0. 18
0. 17
n0.16 -
x~~xxx
1s5 .-
0. 14
U. 14J
c0.13 A
0 100 200 300 400
Days to maturity
FIG. 3.-Data and fitted curve, January22, 1981, T 50
are on a simple interest basis. Bill prices themselves are not displayed
but are readily calculated from the discount yields. We have converted
the asked discount to the corresponding price (that paid by an investor)
and then calculated the continuously compounded rate of return from
delivery date to maturity date annualized to a 365.25-day year. These
yields are the data we fit to the yield curve model. Observations on the
first two maturities, 3 and 10 days, are omitted because the yields are
consistently higher, presumably because of relatively large transaction
costs over a short term to maturity. This leaves 30 yield/maturity pairs
observed on each of 34 market dates and 31 pairs on three dates. The
data collected for the first date in our sample (January 22, 1981) are
plotted in figure 3.
For purposes of fitting yield curves we have parameterized the
model (2) in the form
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Parsimonious Modeling 479
0. 16
0. 14 XX
0.13
0. 13
0. 12
0 100 200 300 400
Days to maturity
FIG.4.-Data and fitted curves, February 19, 1981, T = 20 and 100
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480 Journal of Business
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Parsimonious Modeling 481
First
Second-Order Model Term Only
Set SD at SD, SD at
No. T Best T R?2 T = 50 Best T
haps, clerical error(we refer to this as the "coffee break" data set). In
contrast, data set 24 in figure 6 presents a very smooth, S-shaped
pattern that is very precisely tracked by the model, leaving residuals
with a standarddeviation of only about 3 basis points.
The ability of the second-ordermodel to generatehump shapes was
one of its attractive attributesconceptually, but the question remains
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482 Journal of Business
0. 17
0. 16
x
XXX
220.15 - XXXx-
*.H~~~~~~~~~~~x
0. 14
0. 13
3 I I I X
0 100 200 300 400
Days to maturity
FIG. 5.-Data and fitted curves, July 9, 1981, T = 80
0. 10
0. 09
aj 0.08
0.07
0. 06 IL
0 100 200 300 400
Days to maturity
FIG. 6.-Data and fitted curve, October 28, 1982, T = 30
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Parsimonious Modeling 483
18 -
16-
14-
12-
10-
8-
-6
I 4-
2-
0* /
-2-
-4 L
1'0 _20304
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4,4 Journal of Business
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Parsimonious Modeling 485
0. 0015
- 0. 0010
a)
0. 0005
j
-u
* 0. 0000
L
CU-0. 0005
L
> -0. 0010
-0. 0015 -_ | |
0 100 200 300 400
Days to maturity
FIG.8.-Averaged residualsby days to maturity
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486 Journal of Business
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Parsimonious Modeling 487
150
140
130
- 120
70
z
0100
90
80
70
0 10 20 30 40
DATA SET
FIG. 9.-Time-series plot of actual and predicted(darkerline) bond price
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488 Journal of Business
150
U)
CL x xx
x ~~~~~~~~~~~X
X XX
en x X
F ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
xXX
<100
u X~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 150
C~~~~~~
- X X
100 150
PREDICTEDPRICE
FIG. 10.-Scatter plot of actual and predictedbond price
V. Conclusions
Our objective in this paper has been to propose a class of models,
motivatedby but not dependenton the expectations theory of the term
structure,that offers a parsimoniousrepresentationof the shapes tradi-
tionallyassociated with yield curves. Pilot testing on U.S. Treasurybill
data suggests that a very simple model with only a single-shapeparam-
eter is able to characterize the shape of the bill term structure. The
model imposes sufficientsmoothness to reveal a maturity-specificpat-
tern that can be related to lower transaction costs for bills at the
maturitiesissued by the Treasury.If the model reflects the basic shape
of the term structure and not just a local approximation,then we
shouldbe able to predictyields or prices at maturitiesbeyond the range
of the sample. Confirmingthis, we find a high correlationbetween the
present value of a long-termbond impliedby the fitted curves and the
actual reported price of the bond.
References
Chambers, Donald R.; Carleton, Willard T.; and Waldman, Donald W. 1984. A new
approach to the estimation of the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Financial
and Quantitative Analysis 19 (September): 233-52.
Cohen, Kalman J.; Kramer, Robert L.; and Waugh, W. Howard. 1966. Regression yield
curves for U.S. government securities. Management Science 13 (December): B-168-
B-175.
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Parsimonious Modeling 489
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