Tecsup 2010 Section 5

Component Replacement 2010/7/3
Component
p Replacement
p Policies
Dr. Albert H.C. Tsang
Phone: (852) 2766–6591 Fax: (852) 2362–5267 email: albert.tsang@polyu.edu.hk
Outline
 Short-term
Sh t t D
Deterministic
t i i ti O
Optimization
ti i ti
 Constant-interval Replacement Policy
 Age-based Replacement Policy
 Glasser’s Graphs
 References
© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 2
© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 1

Replacement of Items
with Increasing Operating Costs
 In the short time frame, an asset

does not fail, but its operating cost
increases with use
 Use Life Cycle Evaluation to
determine its optimal
p replacement
p
times
Short-
Short -term deterministic optimization
Hot flue gases
Cold air Air heater

Soot deposits
Hot air
steam
Boiler
fuel

Short-
1.2
$ per unit
it
1
of Steam
Generated
0.8
0.6
0.4
02
0.2
tr
0
time
Where on the increasing operating cost curve is it economically
justifiable to make a replacement (that is, clean the air heater) ?
Short-
Operating cost (fuel)

Total Cost
ost / Unit Time
Replacement Cost
(Cleaning Cost)
Co
0
0 Interval between replacement tr
Optimal tr

Model Construction
c(t)
( ) : Operating
p g cost p
per unit time at time t after replacement
p
Cr : Cost of a replacement
C(tr) : Total cost per unit time for preventive replacement
at time t, where tr is the length of replacement
intervals
tr
cost of operating+cost of replacement  c(t )dt C r

C (tr )   0
length of interval tr
Model Construction
Cr
Cost / Unit Time
c(t)
t
tr

Example
c(t )  A  B exp[
e p[kt ]
Where A= $100, B= $80, and k=0.21/week.
Cr  $100
1  tr 
C (tr )   (100  80 exp[ 0.21t ]dt  100) 
tr  0 
Example
100
$/weeks
c(t)=A-Be-kt
20
0
Time (weeks)

Example
Optimal Replacement Age
tr 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
C(tr) 127.8 84.7 74.0 70.9 70.5 71.5 72.5
Further Comments
One Replacement
p Cycle
y
Operation Replacement
0 tr tr+Tr
tr
 c(t )dt  C r
C (tr )  0
tr  Tr

Total cost Curve
C(tr)
tr
Sensitivity Analysis of Cost Function
Curves obtained
Overlap by varying Cr
Optimal values of tr for

different values of Cr
Interval between replacement, tr

Preventive Replacement
of Items Subject to Failure
Check the following conditions:

 the risk of failure increases with age
or usage
 the cost of preventive replacement is
lower than the cost of corrective
replacement
l t
RCM Methodology Logic

Select
Equipment
Is condition monitoring technically and

economically feasible to detect warning
of a gradual loss of the FUNCTION?
Condition-Based
Maintenance Yes
Is a repair technically and
economically feasible to restore
the performance the item, and will
this reduce the risk of FAILURE ?
Time-Based
Maintenance Yes
Is it technically and economically feasible
to replace the item, and will this reduce
the risk of FAILURE ?
Time-Based
Discard Yes
Default Actions

Time-based Maintenance / Discard
Measure of Usage:
 Operating hours
 Calendar time
 Operating cycles
Preventive Replacement Cost Conflicts
Total Cost Per Week
Failure Replacement
Cost per Week
Cost per Week
Preventive
P ti Replacement
R l t
Cost per Week
0 Preventive
Replacement Age
0
Optimal preventive replacement age

Constant-interval
Replacement Policy
Constant-
Constant-interval Replacement Policy
 Replace a group of similar items

at constant intervals, regardless
of the age of individual items
since their last replacement
 Also known as block or group
replacement policy

Constant-
New Cf Cf Cf
Item Cp Cp Cp Cp
tp tp tp tp t
Cf : total cost of a failure replacement

Cp : total cost of a preventive replacement
tp : intervals of length of preventive replacement
Source: Jardine & Tsang (2006) Maintenance, Replacement and Reliability: Theory & Applications, pp 40
Constant-
Preventive replacement
Failure replacements
0 One cycle tp
Optimal Interval Between Preventive Replacements

of Equipment Subject to Breakdown

Model Construction
Cp : total cost of a preventive replacement
(labor, part, outage cost, etc)
Cf : total cost of a failure replacement
f(t) : p.d.f. of failure times
C(tp) : total cost per unit time for preventive

replacement at intervals of length tp , plus
failure replacement as required
Model Construction
Cp
Cf Cf
tp
One cycle
Expected cost / cycle C p  H(t p )  C f

C(t p )  
Cycle length tp
Where H(tp) = expected number of renewals in interval (0,tp)

Cp = $5 Cf = $10
f(t) ~ N(5,1)
Example Normal
μσ
C(tp)
5.00
2.51
2.24
2.00
1.74 1.65
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 tp 7
Optimal tp
Determination of H(t)
To use the discrete approach
approach, let us assume that not
more than 1 failure occur in an interval of 1 week
Then: 0 1 2 3 4
H(4)
H(3)
H(2)
H(1)

0 1 2 3 4
H(4)
H(3)
H(2)
H(1)
H(4) = [1+H(3)]  Probability of 1st failure happening in week 1

+ [1+H(2)]  Probability of 1st failure happening in week 2
H(0) = 0
1
1
Probability of 1st failure in week 1=  f(t ) d t
f(t) 0.9 0
2
0.8 P b bilit off 1st failure

Probability f il in
i week 2 
k 2= 1
f(t ) d t
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
01
0.1
0 time (week)
2
+ [1  H( 2 )]  1 f( t ) d t
1
H(4) = [1  H( 3 )]   f( t ) d t
0

+
3
[1  H( 1 )]   f( t ) d t
2
+ 4
[1  H( 0 )]   f( t ) d t
3
+ [0 ]   f( t ) d t
4

I G
In General:
l
T 1 i 1
H(T )  1 H(T  i 1)   f(t )dt T  =1
i 0 i
with H(0) = 0
The above recursive relation is used to calculate H(T)
Age-based
Replacement Policy

Age-based Replacement Policy
 Replace the item when it has

reached a pre-determined age so
that the long-run average total
cost is optimized
New Cp Cf Cf Cp
Item
tp tp tp


Failure Failure
replacement replacement
Preventive Preventive
replacement replacement
tp tp
0 Time
Optimal Preventive Replacement Age of

Equipment Subject to Breakdown
2 Types of Replacement Cycles

Preventive Failure
replacement
l t l t
replacement
Operation Operation
or
0 Cycle 1 tp Cycle 2
A Preventive A Failure
Replacement Cycle Replacement Cycle
When is the optimal preventive replacement age?


Model Construction
Cp, Cf and f(t)
( ) as before.
There are two possible cycles:
Cp Cf
0 tp 0 M(tp)
Good Cycle Failed Cycle
y
M(tp): Mean time to failure given preventive replacement at age ‘tp’

If tp =  , M(tp) = 
Model Construction
If f(t) is normal and we set tp = μ we have a
distribution truncated at tp :
45
f(t) M(tp)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
tp =  time

Model Construction
C(tp) = total
t t l costt / unit
it time
ti when
h preventive
ti replacement
l t
occurs at age tp
Expected cost / cycle

C(t p ) 
Cycle length
C p  R(t p )  C f  1  R(t p ) 
C(t p ) 
t p  R(t p )  M(t p )  1  R(t p ) 
Determination of M(tp)
f(t)
() 1
0.9
0.8
f(t)
0.7
0.6 1 – R(tp)
0.5
0.4
0.3 R(t)
0.2
0.1
tp
0
t time
 t  f( t ) d t
p
M( t )  0
1  R( t )
p
© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies
p 38

Cp = $5 Cf = $10
f(t) ~ N(5,1)
Example Normal
μσ
C(t
( p) 5 00
5.00
2.50
1.87
1.70 1.63
1.50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 tp
Optimal Preventive Replacement age
Replacement Policy Tables
Source: N.A.J.Hastings, “Asset Management and Maintenance- The

CD”, Oliver Interactive, Inc., Toronto.
www.oliver-group.com

Optimal Preventive Replacement Age
90 C t Ratio
Cost R ti
Replacement Age (% of η)
80 For the cases to the left

2 of these lines, the cost of
70 the optimal preventive
4 policy > 90% of ROOF
60 cost
6
50
8
40
10
30
Optimal R
20
10
0
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Optimal Preventive Block Replacement Interval
For the cases to the left of this

line, the cost of the optimal
Cost Ratio
70
preventive policy > 90% of
al Replacement Interval
ROOF cost
60 4
6
50
8
(% of η)
40
10
30
20
Optima
10
0
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4


Glasser’s Graphs
Glasser’s Graphs
Use of Glasser
Glasser’s
s Graphs to determine the
optimal preventive replacement interval
and age
Assumptions:
• Failure distribution is Weibull
• Know ratio Cf /Cp
• That graph is designed for cost minimization
Source: Glasser, “Planned Replacement: Some Theory and its Application”,
Journal of Quality Techonology, 1(2), April 1969

Use of Glasser’s Graphs

Procedure
P d for
f determining
d t i i theth optimal
ti l
preventive replacement interval / age:
1) Obtain cost ratio, k = Cf /Cp
2) Obtain ratio,  = μ/σ
3) Obtain ‘z’ value from graph
4) tp = μ + zσ
Glasser’s
Graph
()
Optimal policies
under block
replacement:
Weibull
distribution
Source:
Glasser, “Planned Replacement: Some
Theory and its Application”, Journal of
Quality Techonology, 1(2), April 1969

Glasser’s
Graph
Optimal policies
under age
replacement:
Weibull
distribution
Source:
Glasser, “Planned Replacement: Some
Theory and its Application”, Journal of
Quality Techonology, 1(2), April 1969
Example 1:
Given: Cp = $5 , Cf = $10 , f(t) ~ N(5,1)

Normal
μσ
Determine the optimal preventive replacement interval

to minimize total cost
Since Weibull can represent a normal distribution

(with β = 3.5), we can use Glasser’s graph

Glasser’s
Graph Z=-1.2
()
S l ti
Solution:
1) k = Cf /Cp = 10 / 5 = 2
2)  = μ/σ = 5 / 1 = 5
3) z = 1.2 from the graph
4) tp = μ + zσ  =0.85
k=2
= 5 + ( 1.2
121)=3
3.8
8
v=5
Source: Glasser (1969)
Example 1:
Solution:
From Glasser’s Graph, we can also obtain the ρ value which
identifies the cost of saving compared to a replace-only-on-
failure (ROOF) policy
ρ = 0.85 from the graph
Therefore optimal policy of tp = 3.8 weeks costs 85%
of a replace-only-on-failure policy
Cost of a ROOF policy = Cf / μ = 10 / 5 = $2 / week

Cost Saving Curve

Repair-only-on-failure Cost = Cf / μ = 2
C( tp )
$/week
savings
1.70
0.85  2 = $1.70 / week
3.8 tp in weeks
Exercise 2:
Given: Cp = $5 , Cf = $10 , f(t) ~ N(5,1)

Normal
μσ
Determine the optimal preventive replacement age to

minimize total cost

Glasser’s
Graph Z=-0.9
()
S l ti
Solution:
1) k = Cf /Cp = 10 / 5 = 2
2)  = μ/σ = 5 / 1 = 5
3) z = 0.9 from the graph

 =0.78
4)) tp = μ + zσ k=2
k 2
= 5 + ( 0.9  1 ) = 4.1
v=5
Source: Glasser (1969)
Example 2:
Solution:
From Glasser’s Graph, we can also obtain the ρ value which
identifies the cost of saving compared to a replace-only-on-
failure (ROOF) policy
ρ = 0.8 from the graph
Therefore optimal policy of tp = 4.1 weeks costs 78%
off a replace-only-on-failure
l l f il policy
li
Cost of a ROOF policy = Cf / μ = 10 / 5 = $2 / week

A software tool for optimizing Preventive Replacement
OREST Weibull Parameter Estimates

OREST Age-based Preventive

Replacement Report
Platform Screen Doors (PSD)

at Railway Stations

PSD Header Drive Motor

of PSD
Failed PML Drive Motor
PML Drive Motors –

Weibull Parameter Estimates
Table of S tatistics
P robability D ensity F unction 3-P arameter Weibull
S hape 1.69855
0.0000004
90 S cale 1992937
50 Thres 211153
M ean 1989443
P er cent
S tD ev 1077552
10
P DF
0.0000002 M edian 1817287

IQ R 1458457
1 F ailure 39
C ensor 570
A D* 827.349
0.0000000 0.1 C orrelation 0.993
0 1500000 3000000 4500000 100000 1000000 10000000
C3 C 3 - T hr eshold
Surv iv al F unction H azard F unction

100
0.0000015
 > 1 : Risk of failure
increases with usage
P er cent
0.0000010
Rate
50
0.0000005
0 0.0000000
0 1500000 3000000 4500000 0 1500000 3000000 4500000
C3 C3
60 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang

© Component Replacement Policies

If Cp = $1,000 Cf = $10,000
PML Drive Motors
Cost
Summary
Cost
saving of
the policy
If Cp = $1,000 Cf = $10,000
OREST Cost Optimization Curve
Repair-only-on-failure
p y f Cost = $
$4.95
savings
$2 56
$2.56

If Cp = $1,000 Cf = $10,000
PML Drive Motors
User defined Preventive

R l
Replacementt P
Policy
li
Cost
Summary
Cost
saving of
the policy

63
If Cp = $1,000 Cf = $10,000
PML Drive Motors
User defined Preventive

R l
Replacementt P
Policy
li
Cost
Summary
Cost
saving of
the policy

64

Sensitivity of Optimal Preventive

Replacement Age with Cost Ratio
Optimal Preventive Replacement Age
PML Drive Motors
1,150,000
1,050,000
Cycles of Operation
950,000
850,000
750,000
650,000
550,000
450,000
0 5 10 15 20
Cost Ratio
= Cf : Cp

65
Quality of Life Data

References
• Jardine,, A.K.S. and Tsang,
g, A.H.C. (2006)
( )
Maintenance, Reliability and
Replacement: Theory and
Applications, Taylor & Francis: CRC
Press
• Glasser, Planned Replacement: Some
Theory and its Application, Journal of
Quality Technology, Vol.1 No.2, April
1969
Software & Web Sites

Software
OREST: the educational version of this software can be downloaded
from www.crcpress.com/e_products/downloads/download.asp?cat_no=DK9669
ReliSoft: www.reliasoft.com
Minitab: www.minitab.com
Maintenance Web Sites

www.pem-mag.com
www.plant-maintenance.com
www.m-tech.co.za

(z)
-~
0
-
~
-...
'"
0
<..>
Averageservicelife in standarddeviation units (v)

Optimal policies under block replacement: Weibull distribution.
Figure 1
(z)
-5.0
Average servicelife in standarddeviation unit$ (v) .

Optimal policies under age'replacement: Weibull distribution.
F;gure 2

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Component Replacement 2010/7/3

Dr. Albert H.C. Tsang

Phone: (852) 2766–6591 Fax: (852) 2362–5267 email: albert.tsang@polyu.edu.hk

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 2

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 1

 In the short time frame, an asset

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 3

Hot flue gases

Cold air Air heater

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 4

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 2

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 5

Operating cost (fuel)

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 6

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 3

cost of operating+cost of replacement  c(t )dt C r

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 7

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 8

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 4

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 9

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 10

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 5

Optimal Replacement Age

C(tr) 127.8 84.7 74.0 70.9 70.5 71.5 72.5

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 11

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 12

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 6

Total cost Curve

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 13

Sensitivity Analysis of Cost Function

Optimal values of tr for

Interval between replacement, tr

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 14

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 7

Check the following conditions:

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 15

RCM Methodology Logic

Is condition monitoring technically and

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 16

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 8

Time-based Maintenance / Discard

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 17

Preventive Replacement Cost Conflicts

Total Cost Per Week

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 18

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 9

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 19

 Replace a group of similar items

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 20

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 10

Cf : total cost of a failure replacement

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 21

Optimal Interval Between Preventive Replacements

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 22

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 11

Cf : total cost of a failure replacement

f(t) : p.d.f. of failure times

C(tp) : total cost per unit time for preventive

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 23

Expected cost / cycle C p  H(t p )  C f

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 24

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 12

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang Component Replacement Policies 25

© 2010 by Albert H.C. Tsang 13