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Failure Mode
Identification Failure Rate Resources/Costs
(Pre-Launch)
Release Release
Resources/costs
# Failure Modes
DFR
Failure Rate
No DFR 50%
No DFR
No DFR
DFR Goal DFR
5%
Time Time Time
Identify & “eliminate” Start with lower “running Reduce overall costs by
inherent failure modes rate”, then aggressively employing DFR from the
before launch. (Minimize “grow” reliability. (Reduce beginning.
Excursions!) Warranty Costs)
Take control of our product quality and aggressively drive to our goals
2. DFR - Process
NPI Process
Keys to DFR:
• Customer reliability expectations & needs must be fully understood
3. DFR - Terminology
What do we mean by
1. Reliability
2. Failure
3. Failure Rate
4. Hazard Rate
5. MTTF / MTBF
1. Reliability R(t): The probability that an item will perform its intended
function without failure under stated conditions for a
specified period of time
3. Failure Rate [F(t)]: The ratio of no. of failures within a sample to the
cumulative operating time.
Failure Rate =
2 failures 2
1000 * 24 * 7 hours
= failures /hour
168 , 000
= 1.19E-5 failures/hr
f (t)
t
time
Common Distributions
−λt
Exponential f t =λe 0≤t∞
t
β t β−1 − β
Weibull f t = ⋅ ⋅e β 0≤t∞
η η
2
− t− μ
1 2σ
2
Normal f t = ⋅e −∞t ∞
σ 2π
ln t −μ 2
Log 1 2σ
2
0≤t∞
Normal f t = ⋅e
σt 2π
t
CDF =F t =∫ f t dt
0
f (t)
t1
time
Cumulative
Distribution Function
t
R t =1−F t =1−∫ f t dt Typical characteristics:
or
0
• when t=0, R(t)=1
∞ • when t→∞, R(t) →0
R t =∫ f t dt
t
f (t)
Probability Density Function
R(t) = 1-F(t)
time
t
Reliability Audit Lab
VEM RAL
The hazard function or hazard rate h(t) is the conditional probability of failure
in the interval t to (t + Δt), given that there was no failure at t. It is expressed
as
Hazard Functions
As shown the hazard rate is a function of time.
The sample will experience a high failure rate at the beginning of the
operation time due to weak or substandard components, manufacturing
imperfections, design errors and installation defects. This period of
decreasing failure rate is referred to as the “infant mortality region”
At the end of the early failure-rate region, the failure rate will eventually
reach a constant value. During this constant failure-rate region the failures
do not follow a predictable pattern but occur at random due to the changes
in the applied load.
The third and final region of the failure-rate curve is the wear-out region.
The beginning of the wear out region is noticed when the failure rate starts
to increase significantly more than the constant failure rate value and the
failures are no longer attributed to randomness but are due to the age and
wear of the components.
To minimize the effect of the wear-out region, one must use periodic
preventive maintenance or consider replacement of the product.
Random Failure
Infant Mortality (Useful Life) Wear out
h(t) decreasing
h(t) increasing
Hazard Rate, h(t)
h(t) constant
Random
Failures
Time
MTTF = (1/n)Σ ti
ht = λ=constant
1
MTBF mean time between failures =
λ
−λt
f t =λe
−λt
F t =1−e
Rt =e−λt
1
−λ
At MTBF: R t =e−λt =e λ
=e−1 =36. 8
Appropriate tool if failure rate is known to be constant
λ=.0003
0.0002
λ=.0001
0 4 4 4 4 4
0 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10
Time to Failure
1
λ=.0001
0.667
CDF: F(t)
λ=.0002
0.333
λ=.0003
0 4 4 4 4 4
0 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10
Time
Reliability Audit Lab
VEM RAL
Useful Life Metrics: Reliability
Reliability can be described by the single parameter exponential distribution when
the Hazard Rate, λ, is constant (i.e. the “Useful Life” portion of the bathtub curve),
R= e
−
t
MTBF =e − FR t Where: t = Mission length
(uptime or cycles
in question)
R=e
−
30 ∗ 24 hours
7500 hours = 0 .908 = 90 . 8
A mathematical model for reliability during Useful Life
β
β -1 − t
β t η
f t = β
e
η
Equation valid for minimum life = 0
β
h t = β t β -1
η
β
β−1 − t
βt η
f t = β e
η
β
− t
η
R t =1−F t =e
Weibull PDF
β
β−1 − t
• Exponential when β = 1.0 βt η
f t = β e
• Approximately normal when β = 3.44 η
• Time dependent hazard rate
0 .0 0 5
0 .0 0 4
β=0.5
η=1000
0 .0 0 3 β=3.44
η=1000
0 .0 0 2
β=1.0
η=1000
0 .0 0 1
β=0.5 β=3.44
[ ] η=1000
β−1 β
β t
exp −
t
0.004
η=1000
h η η
ht =
{ [ ]}
β h(t)
t β=1.0
1 - 1 - exp −
η 0.002
η=1000
β
ht = β
t β -1 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
η
Time
β < 1: Highest failure rate early-
“Infant Mortality” β = 1: Constant failure rate
β
− t β=3.44
η
R t =1−F t =e η=1000
0.8
β=1.0
0.6
η=1000
R(t) β=0.5
0.4
η=1000
0.2
0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Time
Beta (β): The slope of the Weibull CDF when printed on Weibull paper
B-life: A common way to express values of the cumulative density function - B10
refers to the time at which 10% of the parts are expected to have failed.
Eta (η): The characteristic life, or time at which 63.2% of the parts are expected to
have failed. Also expressed as the B63.2 life. This is the y-intercept of the
CDF function when plotted on Weibull paper.
Weibull plot: A plot where the x-axis is scaled as ln(time) and the y-axis is scaled as
ln(ln(1 / (1-CDF(t))). The Weibull CDF plotted on Weibull paper will be a
straight line of slope β and y intercept = ln(ln(1 / (1-CDF(0))) = η.
β<1 β=1
• Implies “infant mortality” • Implies failures are “random”, individually
unpredictable
• If this occurs:
Failed products “not to print” • An old part is as good as a new part (burn-
Manufacturing or assembly defects in not appropriate)
Burn-in can be helpful
• If this occurs:
• If a component survives infant mortality Failures due to external stress,
phase, likelihood of failure decreases with maintenance or human errors.
age. Possible mixture of failure modes
1<β<4 β>4
• Implies mild wearout • Implies rapid wearout
Benefits
The pictorial representation means that models are easily understood and
therefore readily checked.
Block diagrams are used to identify the relationship between elements in the
system. The overall system reliability can then be calculated from the
reliabilities of the blocks using the laws of probability.
Block diagrams can be used for the evaluation of system availability
provided that both the repair of blocks and failures are independent
events, i.e. provided the time taken to repair a block is dependent only on
the block concerned and is independent of repair to any other block
Reliability Audit Lab
VEM RAL
Elementary models
Before beginning the model construction, consideration should be given to
the best way of dividing the system into blocks. It is particularly
important that each block should be statistically independent of all
other blocks (i.e. no unit or component should be common to a number
of blocks).
I A B C Z O
a) Series System
Figure b shows the units X and Y that are operating in such a way that the system will survive as long as
At lest one of the unit survives. This type of system is referred to as an active parallel system.
R(s) = 1 – (1 – Rx)(1 – Ry)
X
I O
Y
b) Parallel System
When blocks such as X and Y themselves comprise sub-blocks in series, block diagrams of the
type are illustrated in figure c.
Rx = Ra1 * Rb1 * Rc1 *……..Rz1;
Ry = Ra2 * Rb2 * Rc2 *……..Rz2
Rs = 1 – (1 – Rx)(1 – Ry)
A1 B1 C1 Z1
O
I
A2 B2 C2 Z2
c) Series / ParallelSystem
m-out-of-n units
The figure represents instances where system success is assured whenever at least m of
n identical units are in an operational state. Here m = 2, n = 3.
X 2/3
I O
X
d) m-out-of-n System
These metrics and more can be obtained with the right reliability test
• Sample size is typically larger, due to need for degree of confidence in results
and increased availability of samples.
Legacy Products:
Model:
BASIC CONCEPT The model is how we extrapolate back
to normal stress levels.
Time to Failure
..
.
.. Common Models:
. • Arrhenius: Thermal
• Inverse Power Law: Non-Thermal
Stress
}
}
• Eyring: Combined
To predict here, we test here
(Normal stress level) (Elevated stress level)
One of the most important factors that influence the design process of a
product or a system is the reliability values of its components.
➢Historical Data
➢Operational Life Testing
➢Burn-In Testing
The failure data for the components can be found in data banks such as
In such data banks and manuals, the failure data are collected from
different manufacturers and presented with a set of multiplying factors
that relate to different manufacturer's quality levels and environmental
conditions