DISTRIBUSI SAMPLING MENJELASKAN BAGAIMANA STATISTIK BERBEDA

We've seen that probability distributions summarize probabilities of possible outcomes for a
variable. So far, this chapter has treated these distributions as known. In practice, they are rarely
known. We use sample data to make inferences about the parameters of those distributions.
However, probability distributions with fixed parameter values are useful for many of those
inferential methods. Let's look at an example that illustrates the connection between statistical
inference and probability calculations with known parameter values.

Kami telah melihat bahwa distribusi probabilitas merangkum probabilitas hasil yang mungkin untuk
suatu variabel. Sejauh ini, bab ini telah memperlakukan distribusi ini sebagai dikenal. Dalam
praktiknya, mereka jarang dikenal. Data sampel digunakan untuk membuat kesimpulan tentang
parameter distribusi. Namun, distribusi probabilitas dengan nilai parameter tetap berguna untuk
banyak metode inferensial . Mari kita lihat contoh yang menggambarkan hubungan antara inferensi
statistik dan perhitungan probabilitas dengan nilai parameter yang diketahui.

A sampling distribution of a statistic is the probability distribution that specifies probabilities for the
possible values the statistic can take.

Distribusi sampling dari suatu statistik adalah distribusi probabilitas yang menentukan probabilitas
untuk nilai-nilai yang mungkin diambil oleh statistik.

Each sample statistic has a sampling distribution. There is a sampling distribution of a sample mean,
a sampling distribution of a sample proportion, a sampling distribution of a sample median, and so
forth. A sampling distribution is merely a type of probability distribution. Unlike the distributions
studied so far. a sampling distribution specifies probabilities not for individual observations but for
possible values of a statistic computed from the observations. A sampling distribution allows us to
calculate, for example, probabilities about the sample proportion of individuals who voted for the
Republican in an exit poll. Before the voters are selected for the exit poll, this is a variable. It has a
sampling distribution that describes the probabilities of the possible values. The sampling
distribution is important in inferential statistics because it helps us predict how close a statistic falls
to the parameter it estimates. From Figure 4.9, for instance, with a sample of size 2705 the
probability is apparently high that a sample proportion falls within 0.03 of the population
proportion.

Berbeda dengan distribusi yang diteliti selama ini. distribusi sampling menentukan probabilitas
bukan untuk pengamatan individu tetapi untuk nilai yang mungkin dari statistik yang dihitung dari
pengamatan. Distribusi pengambilan sampel memungkinkan untuk menghitung, misalnya,
probabilitas tentang proporsi sampel individu yang memilih Partai Republik dalam jajak pendapat
keluar

Repeated Sampling Interpretation of Sampling Distributions

Sampling distributions portray the sampling variability that occurs in collecting data and using
sample statistics to estimate parameters. If different polling organization each take their own exit
poll and estimate the population proportion voting for the Republican candidate, they will get
different estimates, because the samples have different people. Likewise, Figure 4.9 describes the
variability in sample proportion values that occurs in selecting a huge number of samples of size n =
2705 and constructing a histogram of the sample proportions. By contrast. Figure 4.10 describes the
variability for a huge number of samples of size n = 4. A sampling distribution of a statistic based on
n observations is the relative frequency distribution for that statistic resulting from repeatedly taking
samples of size n, each time calculating the statistic value. It's possible to form such a distribution
empirically, as in Figure 4.9. by repeated sampling or through simulation. In practice, this is not
necessary. The form of sampling distributions is often known theoretically, as shown in the previous
example and in the next section. We can then find probabilities about the value of the sample
statistic for one sample of the given size n.

Distribusi sampel menggambarkan variabilitas sampling yang terjadi dalam pengumpulan data dan
menggunakan statistik sampel untuk memperkirakan parameter. Jika organisasi pemungutan suara
yang berbeda masing-masing mengambil polling keluar mereka sendiri dan memperkirakan proporsi
populasi memilih untuk kandidat Partai Republik, mereka akan mendapatkan perkiraan yang
berbeda, karena sampel memiliki orang yang berbeda