Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
R AYM ON D Y.C . T SE
Department of Building and Real Estate, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom,
Hong Kong. Fax: +852 27645131. E-mail: bsrtse@polyu.edu.hk
Since the Second World War, international tourism has grown at a remarkable
rate. Tourism has, in fact, become one of the fastest-growing industries in the
world economy,1 with nations, states and communities funding boards of tour-
ism to promote their locations and attract further investment. Relative to other
forms of international trade, tourism has proved to be consistent and significant
in its growth.2 Even in the early 1980s, when there was a temporary stabilization
of demand, there followed economic recovery and a corresponding renewal of
growth worldwide.3
Tourism is a vital component of the national economy.4 Tourism is not only
a pleasure market;5 it is also an economic activity that develops according to
economic forces.6 Wanhill7 argues that tourism is a demand-led industry whose
influence pervades many different sectors of the economy.8 The view that
tourism is an export industry is of considerable appeal to communities in search
of economic development. Since the early 1980s, one of the most frequent
applications of economic tools to arts, culture and ‘mega-events’ has been
economic impact analysis. The focus of such studies has been to convince policy
The author is grateful to Hong Kong Polytechnic University Research Funding No YW44, and to
Darshi De Saram for research assistance. Responsibility for the content of the paper rests solely with
the author.
278 TOURISM ECONOMICS
makers and the general public that the arts should be supported not only for
their social and artistic value, but also for their economic contribution and their
contribution to tourism.9 This has become the starting point for any public
sector intervention in tourism projects.10
The growth of international tourism during the past 30 years has had impacts
on employment, gross domestic product, foreign exchange earnings, balance of
payments and the global economy in general. Although tourism has become
a conspicuously large and fast-growing industry, economic analysis of it has been
somewhat limited, possibly because it is not a single industry but rather
comprises businesses from numerous industrial classifications.11 It becomes more
important than ever to develop better methods for assessing the economic
importance of tourism on an area’s economy.
The development of mass tourism can significantly affect a host community’s
life. As an increasingly important industry, tourism directly contributes to the
economic prosperity of a community. Looking at the case of South Korea, Lee
and Kwon argue that the economic impact of tourism will be far greater if the
secondary (indirect plus induced ) impact, in terms of output, personal income,
employment, value added, indirect tax and imports, is also considered.12 They
further suggest that export sectors have a lower propensity for generating
foreign exchange earnings than tourism sectors, since the former are much more
dependent on imports. The low import multiplier for the tourism sectors
indicates less leakage effect than in the export sectors. Considering the lack of
indigenous raw materials and energy resources in South Korea, Lee and Kwon
propose that tourism should be promoted as one of the strategic export indus-
tries.13
Another important fact is that tourism is a labour-intensive industry, a
particularly attractive feature in economies with large numbers of poorly edu-
cated or unskilled workers, a characteristic that applies to many rural areas.14
It thus helps to reduce income inequality. Moreover, tourism-induced social and
cultural functions, such as interaction between hosts and guests and the devel-
opment of infrastructure, recreation facilities, and entertainment opportunities,
may enhance the quality of community living.15 Growth in tourism is, there-
fore, more than an increase in hotel rooms, number of visitors, and tourist
expenditures; it has an effect on the quality of life at the destination.
The world population is estimated to have reached six billion at the turn
of the century and 90% of this projected increase is attributed to the developing
countries. Because of the labour-intensive character of the hotel and tourism
industry, Ahmed and Josiam16 consider that it has the potential to generate
enormous employment opportunities for the populations in these countries.
Tooman17 suggests that labour-force participation and proprietary income will
be favourably affected. Proprietary income is an indication not only of tourism’s
ability to generate income, but also of its ability to encourage entrepreneurial
activity.
Tooman18 further argues that the first-order effects of tourism-led growth can
be dramatic and conspicuous. From an aggregate perspective, when the produc-
tion of goods and services increases the potential for profit, savings and further
investment are enhanced, and GDP growth is boosted. Extensive research has
been undertaken to understand the economic, social, and environmental impacts
of tourism. Two types of research are of particular relevance to tourism growth.
Estimating the impact of economic factors on tourism 279
The first of these comprises studies with a business focus that trace industry
trends, such as occupancy rates, number of visitors, tourist expenditures, etc,
as well as the backward and forward linkages of the industry.19 The second
research approach comprises studies of residents’ attitudes towards the conse-
quences of tourism development.
Numerous studies have found that economic determinants alone account for
much of the variation in tourist activities. This paper therefore focuses on the
impact of economic factors on tourism. The paper is organized as follows. First,
there is a review of tourism growth in Hong Kong. This is followed by an
assessment of the effects of price on tourism demand. Then the variables and
data employed in this study are described and the model and empirical results
are presented. Finally, conclusions are offered.
is a large and growing sector of the Hong Kong economy. Today it contributes
4–5% of the territory’s GDP.28 In 1999, the GDP of Hong Kong was US$128
billion.29 Restaurants, hotels and boarding houses alone employed some 220,000
employees, which is over 9.6% of the total Hong Kong workforce of 2.8
million.30
Visitor arrivals grew from around 6 million in 1989 to a peak of 11.7 million
in 1996, thus registering a 95% growth in a span of just seven years.31 Airline
capacity increased from 207,908 seats in 729 flights per week in 1989 to
409,224 seats in 1,337 flights per week in 1996; a nearly 97% increase in the
number of seats per week. Furthermore, the territory has an international
reputation for its excellent shopping and fine hotels. Hong Kong is the hub
in Asia for the regional offices of international hotel chains and the head offices
of indigenous hotel chains. The Hong Kong hotel industry has enjoyed high
occupancy rates in the past. With booming tourist arrivals in the latter part
of the 1980s, the hotel industry occupancy rates averaged 84.2%, substantially
above the world average of 66%.32 During the period from 1989 to 1996, the
room occupancy rate increased from 79% to 88% while the capacity for
accommodation increased from 69 HKTA member hotels offering 27,031 rooms
in 1989 to 88 hotels offering 33,536 rooms in 1996; a more than 24% increase
in the number of rooms.33 Receipts from visitors also grew from nearly US$4.62
billion in 1989 to nearly US$10.58 billion in 1996, thus registering a 95%
growth in seven years.
It might have been anticipated that the 1997 hand-over of Hong Kong to
China would lead to a prior surge in visitors, but there was no significant
change in the composition of visitors afterwards. 1996 was the peak year for
the Hong Kong travel industry and this may be due to the Asian financial crisis:
there was a decline in the following years when, in 1998, visitor arrivals
dropped to 10.16 million and receipts to US$6.95 billion. In 1996 per capita
spending was US$903 and the average length of stay was 3.7 nights. Although
these figures have dropped to US$602 and 3.10 nights in the first half of 2000,
the popularity of Hong Kong as a travel destination is on the rise.
Given Hong Kong’s geographical position, it has been able to develop itself
into an international and regional airline hub. It was named ‘Asia’s Best City’
in the fifth annual ‘World’s Best Awards’ readers’ survey conducted by the US
consumer travel magazine Travel and Leisure. Hong Kong was also rated as
having the highest level of economic freedom in the world for the fifth
consecutive year in the 2000 Index of Economic Freedom published by The
Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal. For the fourth consecutive year,
Hong Kong was ranked third in terms of competitiveness among the world’s
major economies in the 1998 World Competitiveness Yearbook, published by the
International Institute for Management Development.
The first half of 2000 saw the arrival of 6,186,562 visitors, indicating that
the total for the year might well surpass that of the peak year 1996. Airline
statistics show that, by the end of 1999, there were 1,359 flights arriving per
week providing 399,534 seats per week. There are 91 HKTA member hotels
offering 35,420 rooms. The average room occupancy rate for the first half of
2000 is 79%, well above the worldwide average of around 68%.34 Receipts from
these visitors were US$3.7 billion, more than a 12% increase over the same
period in the previous year.
Estimating the impact of economic factors on tourism 281
By the beginning of the 1990s, Hong Kong had successfully developed into
one of the leading business centres in Asia, and also as the gateway to China.35
Specifically, Hong Kong now attracts almost one in every two mainland-China
tourists. Arrivals from the mainland now account for almost 30% of total
arrivals. With the open-door policy of China, many Chinese people have money
and time for week-long holidays, and they are keen to travel. Mainland Chinese
spent more than US$1.67 billion in Hong Kong in 1999: Hong Kong is in
a much better position than other destinations to attract this trade, because it
is the closest region, has the same culture, uses the same language and is easily
accessible for mainland visitors. While the visitors from mainland China spent
an average of US$560 in Hong Kong, compared with the overall tourist average
of US$613, they bought 62% of all the jewellery sold to tourists in 1999, and
41% of the cosmetics bought by visitors. Their favourite purchases included
jewellery, clothes, leather goods, watches and clocks, and cosmetics. Above all,
for the people from the north of China the average expenditure on shopping
is US$1,192, because they are shopping not only for themselves, but also for
their relatives. However, some mainland visitors might understate what they
have spent because of restrictions on the removal of currency from the mainland.
Many shops in Hong Kong allow people to use yuan to buy products, and this
is an increasing trend. If Hong Kong is not to lose its place as the favourite
destination of big-spending mainlanders, attractions aimed at these visitors
must be developed – existing tourist sites need to be repackaged and shops and
hotels need to make it easier and more pleasant for them to spend. On the other
hand, a bridge to Zuhai from Hong Kong across the Pearl River Delta has been
proposed, and if that comes to fruition an increasing number of visitors will
use Hong Kong as an extended stop-over on their way to China.
Variables
There are essentially two measures of tourism activity: tourism flow (arrivals )
and tourism expenditure. The average daily census, which combines arrivals and
Estimating the impact of economic factors on tourism 283
average length of stay, gives a more accurate measure of the volume of tourists
in a destination on a given day. This measure becomes particularly important
to government, which is concerned with the economic and social impacts of
tourism. Neither of these volume measures, however, satisfies the forecasting
requirements of economic planners as neither takes into account the ‘expecta-
tion’ factors of tourism. As Frechtling44 points out, expenditure studies alone
suffer from biases and inaccuracies, and are not adequate for measuring the
economic impact of tourism because of linkages and leakages in the economy.
Coshall45 suggests that the major market fundamental variable that affects the
performance of the hotel industry is visitor arrivals – the average length of stay,
the occupancy rate and the supply of hotel rooms and other substitutes such
as hostels or guest houses.
Such studies are, however, important inputs to other methods of measuring
economic impact. Specifically, ‘micro’ and ‘macro’ demands for transient accom-
modation are identified.46 Macro data include person trips and person nights,
purpose of trips, characteristics of trips, receipts and payroll, modes of trans-
portation, international travel and travel price data. Micro data include room
nights and occupancy level. Macro data are often readily available on a national
basis, but data are difficult to obtain for most micro markets. As Hong Kong
is a small region, all the data on the demand for transient accommodation are
available for this micro market.
Basically, hotel room rates are market-driven: when hotel demand is strong
and the market is under-supplied, occupancies will increase and room rates
should show impressive gains. When hotel supply exceeds demand, occupancies
will fall and hotel room rates will either level or start to decline. This implies
that hotel room rates are reflected by the hotel occupancy rates. Rushmore47
argues that occupancy is the economic factor that best reflects the overall health
of the lodging industry. Occupancy drives hotel room rates, total revenue and
profitability. He argues that area-wide occupancy is determined by supply and
demand. Hotel demand is measured by room nights while hotel supply is the
number of rooms available from competitive properties within a specific market
area. In practice, the most important economic indicator of lodging industry
performance that is widely used is the average occupancy rate.48
Occupancy statistics have been commonly used to monitor industry trends
– see, for example, Jeffrey49 and Kirkpatrick and D’Sa.50 However, Wassenaar
and Stafford51 consider that average occupancy and room-rate statistics are
problematic as economic indicators, the major difficulty being the lack of
availability of reliable data on average occupancy and room rates for many travel
destinations. Sometimes only one statistic is disclosed while the other is ignored
– maybe in the belief, according to Lee, that both have a high, positive
correlation. 52 Lee further notes that these statistics can be confusing or deceptive
even when they are available: sometimes one indicator increases and the other
decreases, and thus the overall industry trend is not apparent. Horwath et al53
state that when room occupancy is low the average room rate is also low, because
most of the occupied rooms are in the lower-priced groups. As the occupancy
improves, a larger proportion of the high-priced rooms are occupied and
naturally the average room rate goes up.
Tourism expenditure data are more difficult to measure because the tourism
industry consists of so many component sub-industries. Most countries collect
284 TOURISM ECONOMICS
arrivals data but not all collect expenditure data, which are not included in their
national accounts. A good summary of the biases and errors of different methods
of collecting expenditure data is provided by Frechtling.54 Tourist arrivals and
expenditure data are shown to fluctuate differently, thus requiring an investi-
gation of the accuracy of different methods of forecasting tourism expenditures.
Sheldon55 argues that the conversion of tourist arrival forecasts into expenditure
forecasts by multiplying by average daily expenditures may be misleading. She
suggests that the three most commonly used methods of tourist expenditure
data collection are bank records of foreign exchange transactions; surveys of
tourists; and surveys of tourism establishments.
Eadington and Redman56 present an in-depth analysis of the literature on the
issue of expenditure demand function. Also, other studies by Gary,57 Little,58
Loeb59 and Rosensweig60 have used the exchange rate variable as an independent
variable. However, the data in use should be time series, not cross-sectional,
if exchange rates are to be included as a variable to explain the dependent
variable.
In the present study, the variables considered are:
All of the above data come from the Hong Kong Annual Digest of Statistics and
Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics. This study employs annual data from 1973
to 1998.
The model
Modelling tourism demand with econometric techniques has been a major issue in
the tourism literature over the last 30 years. Several authors have attempted to
Estimating the impact of economic factors on tourism 285
explain and forecast tourism demand basing their assumptions on the belief that
the total demand of an origin country to all destinations is best explained by
economic variables.61 Since international tourism is generally regarded as a luxury
product, income and price factors are likely to play a central role in determining
the demand for international tourism. Published academic research on tourism
demand has used exchange rates, income in the origin country, and relative price
levels as the major independent variables. Sheldon62 summarizes the variables used
in macro models developed in the tourism literature by ten authors.
Demand measured by a regression model is a theoretical construct involving
the functional form and the variables included in the model. Using it as a
demand measure involves assuming that most of the effect of the determinants
of demand is captured by the explanatory variables included in the model, is
adequately modelled by the functional form of the model, and is predominantly
systematic. Tourism demand is typically modelled using multiple regression to
fit a linear or log-linear model with a small set of explanatory variables. This
methodology has the advantage of simplicity, but it ignores much of the current
state of knowledge with regard to estimation problems in multiple regression,
the effects of mis-specification of model structures and different error distri-
butions. Crouch63 summarizes the empirical models used in previous literature.
In a study of the suitability of regression analysis for estimating tourism
demand, Summary64 argues that typical multivariate demand functions esti-
mated by ordinary least squares regression may not represent the optimal
technique in studying tourism demand. This cautiously worded but negative
conclusion is critical of the common use of regression for demand modelling,
which considers a limited set of independent variables to explain demand
changes. It is unlikely, however, that the widespread use of multiple regression
for estimating tourism demand functions will diminish, given its widely per-
ceived advantages over other ways of forecasting demand.
Comprehensive reviews of the literature on international tourism demand can
be found in Ashworth and Johnson65 and especially Crouch.66 These reviews
have concentrated on discussing the various models that have been examined,
as well as several issues relating to data. In this study, I focus attention on the
econometric issues concerning proxy variables, methods of estimation and the
use of an expectations model, which have not previously been examined in detail
in the literature. The lack of availability of data has often meant that proxy
variables have been used in place of the explanatory variables originally specified
in the model. In some studies, researchers have indicated the types of variables
that they recognize to be important, but have nevertheless omitted them from
the studies because of the lack of availability of such information.
In view of the above problems, a tourism demand model that represents a
long-run equilibrium relationship may not reveal a true relationship when its
estimation is done with the use of conventional econometric procedures. Also,
given the complexity of tourism, such relationships may not be regarded as
sufficient to support the theoretical background, especially that part which
concerns the expectations of the variables. The assumption that past trends and
patterns will continue into the future is an uncertain one for tourism demand.
Because of these factors, causal methods that estimate a specified demand model
in terms of ex post explanatory variables using multiple regression techniques
to estimate the model parameters may be inappropriate.
286 TOURISM ECONOMICS
Much attention has been centred on how tourism spending and exchange rate
should be modelled. However, the relationships between tourism spending,
income and exchange rate are not yet fully understood. Most studies assume
that tourism spending responds to ex post income and exchange rate changes.
However, tourists are well informed on exchange rates but have imperfect
knowledge on price levels. Tourists may base their decisions prior to departure
on a knowledge of exchange rates, but may alter their intended length of stay
and level of spending on arrival as they adjust to local currency prices. Thus
expected income and exchange rate may be more important than their current
ex post values. However, tourism demand may be more sensitive to exchange
rates in the short run.67
This study uses an expectations model to test real tourism expenditure (SPt ).
The three explanatory variables used are expected income (EtYt ), expected
exchange rate (EtEXt ), and price level (Pt ). The linear model is specified below:
SPt = f(EtYt, EtEXt, Pt ) (1)
Fluctuating exchange rates can result in several different effects. Five impacts
of an unfavourable change in exchange rates are identified: less travel abroad;
travel to different locations; a reduction in expenditure and/or length of stay;
changes in the mode or time of travel; and a reduction in spending by business
travellers and border shoppers.68 In general, one would anticipate that tourism
spending would increase with expected income and decrease with expected
exchange rates and prices:
¶ SPt/¶ EtYt > 0, ¶ SPt/¶ EXt < 0 and ¶ SPt/¶ Pt < 0
However, the income data are more difficult to measure because the determi-
nants of income in the home country are complex and varied. These income
data are important to measures of international tourism volume and interna-
tional tourism expenditures. Since different countries have different economic
conditions and income levels, there is no single measure of income for inter-
national tourism. However, it is reasonable to assume that the measure of
expected tourist volume in the form of arrivals is directly proportional to the
expected income,69 such that EtTFt µ EtYt. We can therefore write:
SPt = g + d EtTFt + a EtEXt + h Pt (2)
where d > 0, a and h < 0
Using Cagan’s adaptive expectation model,70 we have
EtTFt – Et–1TFt = m (TFt-1 – Et–1TFt ) (3)
and
EtEXt – Et–1EXt = l (EXt–1 – Et–1EXt ) (4)
Equations (3 ) and (4 ) also imply that:
EtTFt = m (1 – (1–m )L )–1 TFt–1 (5)
and
EtEXt = l (1 – (1–l )L )–1 EXt–1 (6)
where L denotes the lag operator, LEtTFt = Et–1TFt and LEtEXt = Et–1EXt.
Estimating the impact of economic factors on tourism 287
In general, we have
The expected tourist flow and exchange rate are adjusted upward, relative
to their previous values, when the last actual tourist flow and exchange rate
exceed their own previous expected values. For instance, if TFt–1 were smaller
than Et–1TFt, the value of EtTFt would be lowered relative to Et–1TFt. The extent
of the adjustment is indicated by the parameters m and l : if the parameter is
close to 1.0, the adjustment is relatively strong (and weak if it is close to zero ).
If we multiply both sides of Equation (2 ) by (1 – (1–m )L )(1 – (1–l )L ), and
substituting for EtTFt and EtEXt from Equations (5 ) and (6 ) respectively, we
obtain:
SPt = b0 + b1SPt–1 + b2SPt–2 + b3TRt–1 + b4TRt–2 + b5 EXt–1 + b6 EXt–2
Coefficient t-statistic
d 0.412* 1.997
a –1.157*** –4.997
m 1.006*** 4.70
l 0.623*** 3.331
g 7.46*** 3.629
h –0.959*** –3.711
Adj. R-squared 0.839
Standard error 0.068
Log likelihood 32.72
Note: *, ** and *** indicate significance at the 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01 levels, respectively.
model is straightforward. The results indicate that the effect of the expected
income (expected tourist flow as a proxy ) on tourism spending is 0.412, and
the effect of the expected exchange rate on tourism spending is –1.157. The
result 0 < d < 1 implies that aggregate visitors’ expenditure is inelastic with
respect to income. The above result is also supported by Lin and Sun71 who
found that international tourism to Hong Kong was highly exchange-rate
elastic. The corresponding adjustment parameters m and l were found to be
1.006 and 0.623, respectively. The Wald test indicates that the hypothesis for
m = 1 cannot be rejected.
In the second part of this study, we assume that the equilibrium hotel
occupancy rate (RM*t ) is a function of tourist flows (TR ), exchange rates (EX ),
price level (P ) and length of stay (DY ):
RM*t = g(TR t, EXt, Pt, DYt ) (8)
where ¶ RM /¶ TR t and ¶ RM /¶ DYt > 0, and ¶ RM /¶ EXt and ¶ RM /¶ Pt < 0.
*
t
*
t
*
t
*
t
Model 1 Model 2
a0 3.605*** –
(3.441 )
TR 0.275** 0.341**
(2.449 ) (4.085 )
EX –0.502*** –0.352***
(–4.824 ) (–3.352 )
P –0.360** –0.443***
(–2.789 ) (–4.077 )
DY 0.805*** 0.720**
(3.700 ) (2.627 )
q – 0.447***
(4.884 )
Adj. R-squared 0.390 0.590
DW 1.215 1.847
Standard error 0.062 0.051
Note: Figures in parentheses are t-statistics. *, ** and *** indicate significance at the 0.1, 0.05 and 0.01
levels, respectively. All variables are in logarithmic form.
Conclusion
This article has presented an overview of the tourism industry in Hong Kong,
an examination of the particular aspects of the tourism industry, and an estimate
of tourist spending and hotel room occupancy rates. Its purpose has been to
assess the impact of economic factors on tourist expenditure and the hotel room
occupancy rate. The aim of the study is to increase understanding of the forces
and trends that drive the tourism and hotel business.
However, growth in tourism is more than an increase in hotel rooms, tourist
flows and tourist expenditures. The development of public infrastructure, such
290 TOURISM ECONOMICS
7. Stephen R. C. Wanhill, ‘Evaluating the worth of investment incentives for tourism development’,
Journal of Travel Research, Fall, 1994, pp 33–39.
8. It is expected that the demand for recreation activities is basically led by the income of
individuals. The growing influence of many countries in terms of tourism development is likely
to continue, with gains in capital investment and business expenditures, which are expected in
this part of the world into the next century. This means that new hotels and resorts will be
built, new aircraft purchased, new infrastructure developed, new automobiles bought and a
multitude of new plant and equipment assembled to meet the growing demand for travel and
tourism, thus generating new wealth and jobs throughout the economy.
9. W. Warren Mchone and Brian Rungeling, ‘Practical issues in measuring the impact of a cultural
tourist event in a major tourist destination’, Journal of Travel Research, Vol 38, February 2000,
pp 299–302.
10. Wanhill, op cit, Ref 7.
11. L. Alex Tooman, ‘Tourism and development’, Journal of Travel Research, Vol 35, Winter, 1997,
pp 33–40.
12. Choong-Ki Lee and Kyung-Sang Kwon, ‘Importance of secondary impact of foreign tourism
receipts on the South Korean economy’, Journal of Travel Research, Vol 33, Fall, 1995, pp 50–
54.
13. Ibid.
14. Martha Frederick, ‘Rural tourism and economic development’, Economic Development Quarterly, Vol
7, 1993, pp 215–224.
15. Philip Wang and Geoffrey Godbey, ‘A normative approach to tourism growth to the year 2000’,
Journal of Travel Research, Summer, 1994, pp 32–37.
16. Zafar U. Ahmed and Bharath M. Josiam, ‘Economic liberalization in India: opportunities for
multinational corporations in the hospitality and tourism sector’, Tourism Economics, Vol 2, No
2, 1996, pp 159–172.
17. Tooman, op cit, Ref 11.
18. Tooman, op cit, Ref 11.
19. United States Travel Data Center (USTDC ), Survey of State Travel Offices, 1987–1988, USTDC,
Washington, DC, 1988, pp 97–102; J. E. Fletcher, ‘Input–output analysis and tourism impact
studies’, Annals of Tourism Research, Vol 16, No 4, 1989, pp 514–529.
20. G. Hasek, ‘Boom in tourism to spur Pacific Rim hotel development’, Hotel and Motel Management,
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21. Ahmed and Josiam, op cit, Ref 16.
22. Ahmed and Josiam, op cit, Ref 16.
23. Fletcher and Latham, op cit, Ref 3.
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and Beyond, WTO, Madrid, 1995.
25. John Fletcher and John Latham, ‘Databank: East Asia and the Pacific’, Tourism Economics, Vol
3, No 2, 1997, pp 201–205.
26. Ibid.
27. Martin G. Barrow, ‘The second-largest foreign exchange earner, tourism’, Hong Kong Business
Annual, Vol 13, 1994, pp 138–143.
28. Hong Kong Tourist Association (HKTA ), A Statistical Review of Tourism 1999, Government of
Hong Kong, 2000.
29. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, The Government of
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China, August 2000.
30. Ibid.
31. Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics, various issues, The
Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People’s Republic of China.
32. Hong Kong Tourist Association (HKTA ), Monthly Statistical Report, various issues.
33. Ibid.
34. Hong Kong Tourist Association (HKTA ), ‘PATA goes “back to the future” in Hong Kong’, Press
Release, 1 May 2000, Hong Kong Tourist Association, http://partnernet.hkta.org/dev/
pressreleases.a sp.
35. J. S. Perry Hobson and Goldwyn Ko, ‘Tourism and politics: the implications of the change in
sovereignty on the future development of Hong Kong’s tourism industry’, Journal of Travel
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36. Wang and Godbey, op cit, Ref 15.
292 TOURISM ECONOMICS
37. B. O. Boniface and C. P. Cooper, The Geography of Tourism and Travel, Heinemann, London, 1990.
38. Daniel R. Lee, ‘A forecast of lodging supply and demand’, Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Admin-
istration Quarterly, 27 August 1984, pp 27–40.
39. Ibid.
40. Brian Archer, ‘The impact of international tourism on the economy of Bermuda, 1994’, Journal
of Travel Research, Fall, 1995, pp 27–30.
41. Ibid.
42. Lee, op cit, Ref 38.
43. Lee, op cit, Ref 38.
44. Doug Frechtling, ‘Assessing the impacts of travel and tourism: measuring economic benefits’,
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for Managers and Researchers, Wiley, New York, 1987.
45. John T. Coshall, ‘Spectral analysis of overseas tourists’ expenditures in the United Kingdom’,
Journal of Travel Research, Vol 38, February 2000, pp 292–298.
46. S. Rushmore, Hotels, Motels and Restaurants: Valuations and Market Studies, American Institute of
Real Estate Appraisers, 1985; S. Rushmore, Hotels and Motels: A Guide to Market Analysis,
Investment Analysis and Valuations Appraisal Institute, 1992.
47. S. Rushmore, ‘The broker vs. the appraiser: how to value a hotel’, Real Estate Financial Journal,
Vol 12, No 4, 1997, pp 15–23.
48. Dirk J. Wassenaar, and Edwin R. Stafford, (1991 ), ‘The Lodging Index: an economic indicator
for the hotel/motel industry’, Journal of Travel Research, Summer, 1991, pp 18–21.
49. D. Jeffrey, ‘Trends and fluctuations in visitor flows to Yorkshire and Humberside hotels: an
analysis of daily bed occupancy rates, 1982–1984’, Regional Studies, Vol 19, October 1985, pp
509–522.
50. Joan Kirkpatrick, and Patrick D’Sa, ‘Focus on occupancy in Miami and Orlando’, Cornell Hotel
and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, Vol 27, November 1986, pp 24–25.
51. Wassenaar and Stafford, op cit, Ref 48.
52. Lee, op cit, Ref 38.
53. Ernest B. Horwath, Louis Toth and John D. Lesure, Hotel Accounting, a Ronald Press Publication,
John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1978.
54. Frechtling, op cit, Ref 44.
55. Pauline J. Sheldon, ‘Forecasting tourism: expenditures versus arrivals’, Journal of Travel Research,
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