Earthquake Hazards and Risk

Scenario for Metro Manila and

Vicinity: the Need for Whole of
Society Preparedness

May 20, 2015

Renato U. Solidum, Jr.

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
Department of Science and Technology
What Happened in Nepal?
 2015 April 25 Nepal Earthquake

Nearby Cities
34km (21mi) ESE of Lamjung, Nepal
77km (48mi) NW of Kathmandu, Nepal

Time: 2015-04-25 06:11:26 (UTC), Saturday

Magnitude: 7.8
Depth: 15 km

* LAST MOVEMENT OF FAULT SEGMENT = 1344

 Magnitude 7.8 NEPAL
Saturday, April 25, 2015 at 06:11:26 UTC

Shaking Intensity
The Modified Mercalli Intensity
(MMI) scale depicts shaking
severity. The area nearest
Katmandu experienced very
strong to severe shaking.

Perceived
Modified Mercalli Intensity Shaking
Extreme
Violent
Severe
Very Strong
Strong
Moderate
Light
Weak
Not Felt
Image courtesy of the US Geological Survey USGS Estimated shaking Intensity from M 7.8 Earthquake
 Magnitude 7.8 NEPAL
Saturday, April 25, 2015 at 06:11:26 UTC

Because it is built in a basin underlain by lake

sediment, Kathmandu was particularly
vulnerable during this earthquake. The city is
located in a broad valley surrounded by the
Himalayas. This valley was formerly the site
of a lake within which river delta and lake
sediment accumulated to thickness of about
100 meters.

Simplified geologic cross-section of the Kathmandu Valley showing basin-fill sediments. Lakebed deposits are
labeled “lacustrine” whereas sediments deposited by rivers are labeled “fluvial”. After Sakai et al. Pleistocene
rapid uplift of the Himalayan frontal ranges recorded in the Kathmandu and Siwalik basins, Palaeogeography,
Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, v. 241, p.1 6–27, 2006.
Summary of Hazards and Impact as of 12 May
(Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology)

• Well built structures received slight damage. Older buildings

suffered great damage. Ground shaking in epicentral area
corresponds to Intensity VIII.

• Many government, religious and private buildings destroyed.

~ 300,000 destroyed, 250,000 damaged.

• Many landslides blocking roads and causing infrastructure

damage, and limited liquefaction.

• Death toll 8151, 377 missing in Nepal. Around 100 fatalities

in Tibet, India and Bangladesh.
What is the Earthquake Scenario in
Metro Manila and nearby Provinces?
 LATEST DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE
IN METRO MANILA

• M 7.3 Casiguran, Aurora

Earthquake, 02 August
1968
• Ruby Tower in Manila
collapsed – 268 killed, 260
injured
EARTHQUAKE GENERATORS IN
METRO MANILA AND VICINITY
THE VALLEY FAULT SYSTEM
• West Valley Fault
(WVF) movement
mainly horizontal

• WVF moved 4 times in

past 1400 years;
movement interval ~
400 years
• Last major earthquake
from Valley Fault in
1658
EARTHQUAKE-RELATED HAZARDS

Fault

Faulting (Ground)
Rupture Ground Shaking Liquefaction

Tsunami Landslide
Fire
Valley Fault System
• East Valley Fault
• 10 km (M6.2)
• Municipalities of Rodriguez
and San Mateo, Rizal
• West Valley Fault
• 100 km (M7.2)
• Bulacan ((Doña Remedios
Trinidad, Norzagaray and San
Jose Del Monte City)
• Rizal (Rodriguez)
• Quezon City, Marikina City,
Makati City, Pasig City, Taguig
City and Muntinlupa City
• Laguna (San Pedro City,
Biñan City, Sta. Rosa City,
Cabuyao City and Calamba
City)
• Cavite (Carmona, General
Mariano Alvarez and Silang)
 The Valley Fault
System (VFS) in
Greater Metro
Manila Areas Atlas
• 33 map sheets
• Metro Manila
• 1:5,000 (22 map
sheets)
• Laguna and Cavite
• 1:10,000 (10 map
sheets)
• Bulacan and Rizal
• 1:50,000 (1 map
sheet)
GROUND SHAKING IN GREATER METRO
MANILA (West Valley Fault Earthquake)
(Risk Analysis Project, 2013: PHIVOLCS, GA supported by AusAID)

BULACAN BULACAN

NCR NCR
RIZAL RIZAL

CAVITE CAVITE

LAGUNA LAGUNA

M7.2 M6.5
INTENSITY VIII (VERY DESTRUCTIVE)
GROUND SHAKING

1995 Kobe Earthquake

 BUILDING AND CASUALTY ESTIMATES (1)
FOR METRO MANILA FROM A M7.2 WEST VALLEY FAULT EARTHQUAKE
Residential Building (1,325,896)
Damage Heavy -168,300 (12.7%) Partly - 339,800 (25.6%)

Public Buildings
Damage Heavy - 8-10% Partly - 20-25%
10-30 Storey Building
Damage Heavy - 11% Partly - 27%

30-60 Storey
Damage Heavy - 2% Partly - 12%

Population (9,932,560)
Casualty Dead 33,500 (0.3%)
Injured 113,600 (1.1%)

Additional Deaths by Fire 18,000

Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study, 2004 – JICA, PHIVOLCS, MMDA
 BUILDING AND CASUALTY ESTIMATES (2)
FOR METRO MANILA FROM A WEST VALLEY FAULT EARTHQUAKE
M7.2 M6.5
Total Floor Area in Complete 88,142,000 65,407,000
to Collapsed Damage (sqm)

Total Floor Area in Slight 172,924,000 162,799,000

to Extensive Damage (sqm)

Total Fatalities (Death) 31,000 23,000

Total Injuries Very Serious 14,000 10,000

Serious 112,000 85,171
Slight 385,000 302,000

Total Economic Losses (millions of PhP) 2,269,000 1,773,000

Risk Analysis Project, 2013 – PHIVOLCS, UP-ICE, GA (AusAID)
 LIQUEFACTION

Dagupan 1990 Dagupan 1990

Subsidence of bridge column Subsidence of building, roads

Mindoro 1994 La Union, 1990

Fissuring of roads Damage to buried pipes, tanks
LIQUEFACTION POTENTIAL
M7.2 West Valley Fault Earthquake
Localities prone to
liquefaction
a) water-saturated (shallow
water table), low-lying

b) Have loose
(unconsolidated), sand or
silt deposits

• river banks, abandoned

rivers, flood plains
• coastlines
• swamps
• reclaimed land

(READY for GMMA Project, 2013)

 FIRE AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE
M7.2 West Valley Fault Earthquake
• Fire outbreak by
electrical short circuit;
Valenzuela toppling of lamps,
Navotas Quezon candles
Malabon City
Caloocan Marikina • Explosion of
Manila Pasig petroleum, gas tanks
San Juan may cause spreading
of fire
Mandaluyong
Pasay Makati
Pateros
Paranaque Maximum Burnt Number
Taguig 500 - 1,000
200 - 500
Las Pinas 100 - 200
50 - 100
20 - 50
1 - 20
Muntinlupa
*MMEIRS, 2004
(MMEIRS, 2004)
 POSSIBLE
ISOLATION DUE
TO EARTHQUAKE
IMPACTS
(West Valley Fault Scenario)
• West
• Fire, Building Damage
• North
• Bridge Damage
• South
• Bridge Damage
• East
• Building Damage, Bridge
Damage
(MMEIRS, 2004)
 TSUNAMI SCENARIO
M8.3 Earthquake from Manila Trench

Estimated Tsunami
Height in Manila Bay:
• 3.5 meters (mean sea
level)
• 5.5 meters (+ 2m from
tide)

Arrival Time:
• > 1 hour
TSUNAMI HAZARD
 GOALS FOR RISK REDUCTION IN
METRO MANILA (MMEIRS, 2004)
• Develop local and national governance and
business system resistant to strong earthquakes
• Improve resiliency of urban structures and
settlements
• Enhance current risk and emergency
management
• Enhance community disaster management
capacities
• Formulation of reconstruction system
• Promotion of research and technology
development
 PRIORITY STRATEGIC APPROACH TO
CONTEND WITH STRONG EARTHQUAKE

Focus Concept • Enhance Legal Basis and

1 – Strengthen support
Legal • Strengthen Institutional
Framework and Capacity for Mitigation,
Institutional Preparedness and Response
Capacity for as well as Inter-Institutional
Disaster Coordination
Management
 PRIORITY STRATEGIC APPROACH TO
CONTEND WITH STRONG EARTHQUAKE

Focus Concept • Enhance Emergency Health

2 – Build and Medical Response
Capacity for System
Relief and • Establish Emergency
Recovery Transportation System
• Secure sea ports, airports
• Secure water source and
supply
• Secure power and
communication systems
 PRIORITY STRATEGIC APPROACH TO
CONTEND WITH STRONG EARTHQUAKE

Focus Concept • Enhance self-reliance and

3 – Strengthen mutual help for efficient risk
Community management capacity
Preparedness • Inculcate Disaster Mitigation
for Earthquakes Culture among populace
and Tsunamis
 PRIORITY STRATEGIC APPROACH TO
CONTEND WITH STRONG EARTHQUAKE

Focus Concept • Strengthen Buildings,

4 – Reduce Structures
Seismic • Promote and Institute Fire
Dangers of Safety
Residential • Promote and support further
Structures researches on seismic
hazards and better building
technology
 PRIORITY STRATEGIC APPROACH TO
CONTEND WITH STRONG EARTHQUAKE

Focus Concept • Protect stability of

5 – Enhance government function
National System • Ensure continuity of socio-
to Become economic systems
Resistant to
Impact of
Earthquakes
 KEY MESSAGES
• Metro Manila and surrounding provinces are prone to
extreme natural events, such as strong earthquakes
and tsunamis.
• A large earthquake from the West Valley Fault can
significantly affect Metro Manila and vicinity. A large
earthquake from the Manila Trench can generate a
tsunami that can affect the coastal areas of the
metropolis.
• Disaster risk reduction and management efforts must
take into account appropriate science-based
scenarios.

• Let us learn from what happened in Nepal. WE ALL

NEED TO ACT NOW.
Earthquake & Tsunami (24/7):
Tel. Numbers
+632 929-9254
+632 426-1468 loc 124 / 125 www.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph
Fax number
 +632 927-1087

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Tel. Numbers /PHIVOLCS
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Telefax number
 +632 927-1095

IEC materials: @phivolcs.dost

 +632 426-1468 loc 128

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