Teorías del Desarrollo

Daniel Toro González

Marzo 2015
Adam Smith (1776)
✤ Intercambio y
especialización

✤ Mercados autoregulados

✤ Precios como Sistema de

información

✤ Mano invisible

✤ Propiedad privada

✤ Papel del estado

Crecimiento Vs Equidad

✤ Distribución del Ingreso (Piketty)

Capital en el Siglo XXI (Piketty)

✤ Malthus, Young and the French

Revolution

✤ Ricardo: The principle of scarcity

✤ Marx: The principle of infinite

accumulation

✤ Marx to Kuznets: Apocalypse to

Fairy Tale

✤ Distribution
Capital en el Siglo XXI

✤ Malthus, Young and the French

Revolution

✤ Ricardo: The principle of scarcity

✤ Marx: The principle of infinite

accumulation

✤ Marx to Kuznets: Apocalypse to

Fairy Tale

✤ Distribution
Malthus, Young and the French
Revolution

✤ S. XVII-XIX -> distribución de la riqueza tema clave

✤ Crecimiento demográfico sostenido

✤ Revolución industrial (migración rural-urbano)

✤ Efectos en la estructura social y el equilibrio político.

Francia
Wikipedia
Malthus, Young and the French
Revolution
✤ Thomas Malthus (1789) Essay on the principle of
Population. Overpopulation

✤ Young travel diary:

• France 20 mil people in 1700 (1789 revolution)

• England 5 mil

✤ Overpopulation leading to chaos and misery.

Rendimientos Marginales
Decrecientes
Q(L,K)
K=Fijo

L
Capital en el Siglo XXI

✤ Malthus, Young and the French

Revolution

✤ Ricardo: The principle of scarcity

✤ Marx: The principle of infinite

accumulation

✤ Marx to Kuznets: Apocalypse to

Fairy Tale

✤ Distribution
Ricardo: The principle of scarcity

✤ "Small social group would inevitably claim a steadily

increasing share of output and income"

✤ Small group:

• Landowners by Ricardo Principles of Political

Economy (1817)

• Industrial Capitalists for Marx

David Ricardo

Mayores precios
de la tierra y
mayores ingresos
para los
terratenientes

sala19.wordpress.com Impuesto a la
renta y la
propiedad raíz
Ricardo (1810)

En 1810 no había
forma de que Ricardo
tuviera en cuenta la
importancia del
progreso tecnológico.

flagstaffacademylmc.wikispaces.com
Ricardo (escasez)
Producción

Trabajadores
Ricardo (escasez)

Aumentos en la producción
Aumentos en la población

Aumentos en los precios de la tierra

Aumentos en la renta de los dueños

CONCENTRACION DE LA RENTA
Oferta y
Demanda
Precios

✤ Demanda: precios OO
Abundancia
inversamente
relacionados con las
cantidades.

✤ Oferta: precios
positivamente
relacionados con las Escasez
cantidades. DD

Cantidades
01
Oferta y
Demanda
Precios

MERCADO DE TIERRA OO

✤ Demanda: Aumenta con el

aumento de la población.

✤ Oferta: Fija para cualquier

nivel de precios.

Precio de la tierra aumenta

constantemente dado el
crecimiento poblacional.
Cantidades
01
Oferta y
Demanda
Salarios
MERCADO LABORAL
OO Trabajadores
✤ Demanda: precios
inversamente relacionados
con las cantidades.

✤ Oferta: precios
positivamente relacionados
con las cantidades.
DD
(Empres
✤ Precio del trabajo disminuye as)
constantemente dado el
crecimiento poblacional.
Cantidades
01
Ricardo (escasez)
Producción

Trabajadores
Capital en el Siglo XXI

✤ Malthus, Young and the French

Revolution

✤ Ricardo: The principle of scarcity

✤ Marx: The principle of infinite

accumulation

✤ Marx to Kuznets: Apocalypse to

Fairy Tale

✤ Distribution
Marx: The principle of infinite
accumulation

✤ Capital (1867)

✤ Industrial Revolution

✤ From the farm to the cities.

✤ Low salaries high

industrial profits.

Jean Valjean, Les Misérables (1862)

Victor Hugo
Francia
Wikipedia
Marx: The principle of infinite
accumulation

✤ Communist and socialist

movements developed.

✤ Where are the benefits of the

industrial revolution if working
conditions are very low?

✤ The communist manifesto

(1848)
Marx: The principle of infinite
accumulation

Marx took Ricardo's model of

scarcity and change the land
for machinery, so the capital
could be accumulated
infinitely.

Never considered the durable

technological progress.
Capital en el Siglo XXI

✤ Malthus, Young and the French

Revolution

✤ Ricardo: The principle of scarcity

✤ Marx: The principle of infinite

accumulation

✤ Marx to Kuznets: Apocalypse to

Fairy Tale

✤ Distribution
Coeficiente de GINI
Mide el grado en que la distribución de los
ingresos entre las personas u hogares dentro de
una economía se aparta de una distribución
perfectamente equitativa.

La curva de Lorenz muestra los porcentajes

acumulados del total de ingresos recibidos en
comparación con la cantidad acumulada de
receptores, empezando con la familia o el hogar
más pobre.
Curva de Lorenz
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Economic
s_Gini_coefficient2.svg

El coeficiente de Gini mide

el área entre la curva de
Lorenz y una línea
hipotética de equidad
absoluta, expresada como
un porcentaje del área
máxima por debajo de la
línea.
• 0 representa la equidad
perfecta
• 100 implica una
desigualdad perfecta
Coeficiente de GINI
Kuznets (1901-1985)
Inequality

Income inequality would

automatically decrease in
advanced phases of
capitalist development.

Income per capita

Capital en el Siglo XXI

✤ Malthus, Young and the French

Revolution

✤ Ricardo: The principle of scarcity

✤ Marx: The principle of infinite

accumulation

✤ Marx to Kuznets: Apocalypse to

Fairy Tale

✤ Distribution
Piketty (2013)

✤ El libre mercado no
basta para reducir las
desigualdades...Maltus,
Ricardo, Marx...
Teorías del Desarrollo
Todaro & Smith

1. Teorías lineales de crecimiento

2. Teorías de cambio estructural

3. Interdependencia internacional

4. Teoría Neoclásica
Teorías del Desarrollo
Todaro & Smith (Ch.3)

1. Teorías lineales de crecimiento

2. Teorías de cambio estructural

3. Interdependencia internacional

4. Teoría Neoclásica
1. Development as Growth, and the
Linear-Stages Theories
✤ Before WWII there was not an analytical economic
model

✤ WWII and the Marshall Plan (Keynes, 1936)

Utility of massive injections of capital

Historical pattern of the now developed countries

✤ Because of its emphasis on the central role of

accelerated capital accumulation, this approach is
often dubbed “capital fundamentalism”
Walt W. Rostow (Historian)

✤ Cold war politics of the 1950s and 1960s

✤ "the transition from underdevelopment to

development can be described in terms of
a series of steps or stages through which
all countries must proceed"

✤ Five stages

01
Walt W. Rostow (Historian)
Age of high
mass
Drive to consumption
maturity

Take-off

Preconditions for
take-off into self-
sustaining growth
Traditional
society

01
Harrod-Domar

Savings Investment Growth

One of the principal strategies of development necessary

for any takeoff was the mobilization of domestic and
foreign saving in order to generate sufficient investment
to accelerate economic growth.

How investment leads to more growth: Harrod-Domar

growth model (AK model).
Harrod-Domar Model
El ahorro es una proporción del ingreso:

La inversión es el crecimiento del stock de capital

Definimos la relación capital/producto como:

Harrod-Domar Model

El crecimiento solo depende de la tasa de

ahorro y de la relación capital/producto:

• Mayor ahorro genera mayor crecimiento

• Mayor nivel de capital reduce el crecimiento

Convergencia implícita en el modelo…

Harrod-Domar Model

En ausencia del gobierno la tasa de crecimiento de

los ingresos esta directamente relacionada con la
tasa de ahorro.
Harrod-Domar Model
 PIB en Colombia 1800-2011
Largo Plazo

En 1997 la relación K/Y = 3,43 (350%)*

*Anexo tabla 2a "Crecimiento económico colombiano en el siglo XX: aspectos globales" GRECO
Harrod-Domar Model

Colombia 18 / 3 = 6%
Harrod-Domar Model

Thus the “capital constraint” stages approach to

growth and development became a rationale and (in
terms of cold war politics) an opportunistic tool for
justifying massive transfers of capital and technical
assistance from the developed to the less developed
nations. It was to be the Marshall Plan all over
again, but this time for the underdeveloped nations
of the developing world.
Críticas a la teoría

El ahorro es una condición necesaria,

pero no suficiente…
Teorías del Desarrollo
Todaro & Smith

1. Teorías lineales de crecimiento

2. Teorías de cambio estructural

3. Interdependencia internacional

4. Teoría Neoclásica
2. Structural-Change Models

✤ Mechanism by which underdeveloped

economies transform their domestic
economic structures.

✤ From a heavy emphasis on traditional

subsistence agriculture to a more modern,
more urbanized, and more industrially diverse
manufacturing and service economy.
2. Structural-Change Models

1. “Two-sector surplus labor” theoretical

model of W. Arthur Lewis
2. “Patterns of development” empirical
analysis of Hollis B. Chenery and his co-
authors.
Transformación Estructural

The process of transforming an economy in such a way

that the contribution to national income by the
manufacturing sector eventually surpasses the
contribution by the agricultural sector. More generally, a
major alteration in the industrial composition of any
economy.
Two-sector surplus labor (Lewis)

✤ Structural transformation of a primarily subsistence

economy.
Two-sector surplus labor (Lewis)

✤ Traditional, overpopulated rural subsistence sector

characterized by zero marginal labor productivity—a
situation that permits Lewis to classify this as surplus
labor in the sense that it can be withdrawn from the
traditional agricultural sector without any loss of
output—

✤ High-productivity modern urban industrial sector into

which labor from the subsistence sector is gradually
transferred.
Two-sector surplus labor (Lewis)

The structural transformation of the economy

will have taken place, with the balance of
economic activity shifting from traditional
rural agriculture to modern urban industry.
Two-Sector Model
$ $
Agricultura Industria

Q Q
Two-Sector Model
$ $
Agricultura Industria

Aumenta la ren
tabilidad del se
ctor industrial

Q Q
Critics

✤ First, the model implicitly assumes that the rate of

labor transfer and employment creation in the modern
sector is proportional to the rate of modern sector
capital accumulation.

✤ Second questionable assumption is the notion that

surplus labor exists in rural areas while there is full
employment in the urban areas.
Structural Change and Patterns of
Development

✤ Sequential process through which the economic,

industrial, and institutional structure of an
underdeveloped economy is transformed over time to
permit new industries to replace traditional agriculture
as the engine of economic growth.
Structural Change and Patterns of
Development

✤ Increased savings and investment are necessary but

not sufficient conditions for economic growth.

✤ In addition to the accumulation of capital, both physical

and human, a set of interrelated changes in the
economic structure of a country are required for the
transition from a traditional economic system to a
modern one.
Structural Change and Patterns of
Development
✤ Empirical studies, both cross-sectional and time-series,
of countries at different levels of per capita income led
to the identification of several characteristic features of
the development process.
1. Shift from agricultural to industrial production.
2. Steady accumulation of physical and human
capital.
3. Change in consumer demands from emphasis on
food and basic necessities to desires for diverse
manufactured goods and services.
Structural Change and Patterns of
Development

4. Growth of cities and urban industries as people

migrate from farms and small towns.
5. Decline in family size and overall population growth
as children lose their economic value and parents
substitute what is traditionally labeled child quality
(education) for quantity, with population growth first
increasing and then decreasing in the process of
development.
Taller en grupos (2 horas)

1. Seleccionar un país e identificar el funcionamiento de la

teoría lineal del crecimiento por medio del análisis del
comportamiento de la tasa de ahorro.

2. Seleccionar un país e identificar si se ha dado un

cambio estructural desde un sector agrícola a uno
industrial o de servicios.

3. Reflexionar si los anteriores cambios son suficientes

para explicar el crecimiento económico sostenido.
Taller en grupos (2 horas)

1. Usar información de Google Data:

✤ Indicadores del desarrollo mundial (Banco mundial)

✤ Política Económica y Deuda

✤ Ahorro Bruto (% del PIB)

✤ Producto Interior Bruto

✤ Crecimiento del PIB

Taller en grupos (2 horas)

✤ Usar información del Banco Mundial

✤ http://datos.bancomundial.org/indicador

✤ Agricultura, valor agregado (% del PIB)

✤ Ahorro bruto (% del PIB)