Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019

October 1st 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 29.5 40.3 11.0 15.4 - 3.2
Quebec 19.5 35.8 10.2 9.8 21.3 2.7
Ontario 33.4 39.5 13.6 9.4 - 3.1
Prairies 47.2 24.2 14.2 8.0 - 4.0
Alberta 58.4 17.8 11.9 7.0 - 4.2
BC 31.6 28.9 18.7 16.5 - 3.3
Canada* 33.9 33.8 13.3 10.6 4.4 3.2

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 24 1 0 0
Quebec 13 49 1 0 14 1
Ontario 38 74 9 0 0
Prairies 21 6 1 0 0
Alberta 34 0 0 0 0
BC 20 10 7 4 0 1
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 133 166 19 4 14 1 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.

Avalon 27% 46% 9% 15% 3%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 22% 65% 1% 13% 2%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 29% 58% 0% 13% 3%
NFL

Labrador 25% 55% 8% 12% 3%

Long Range Mountains 24% 57% 5% 15% 3%
St. John's East 19% 31% 36% 14% 3%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 17% 42% 28% 13% 3%
Cardigan 28% 49% 5% 19% 3%
Charlottetown 26% 39% 16% 18% 3%
PEI
PEI Egmont 40% 32% 13% 15% 4%
Malpeque 29% 45% 5% 22% 3%
Cape Breton--Canso 27% 55% 2% 16% 3%
Central Nova 37% 42% 4% 17% 4%
Cumberland--Colchester 37% 47% 0% 16% 3%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 26% 41% 17% 16% 3%
Halifax 21% 35% 28% 16% 3%
NS

Halifax West 27% 52% 5% 16% 3%

Kings--Hants 30% 54% 0% 16% 3%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 27% 31% 26% 15% 3%
South Shore--St. Margarets 34% 40% 11% 15% 3%
Sydney--Victoria 23% 54% 7% 16% 3%
West Nova 37% 46% 0% 16% 4%
Acadie--Bathurst 20% 34% 31% 15% 3%
Beauséjour 23% 52% 9% 17% 3%
Fredericton 39% 32% 3% 25% 4%
Fundy Royal 48% 24% 11% 16% 4%
Madawaska--Restigouche 28% 39% 18% 14% 3%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 45% 30% 9% 15% 4%

Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 33% 41% 10% 17% 3%
New Brunswick Southwest 50% 27% 6% 17% 4%
Saint John--Rothesay 42% 32% 11% 16% 4%
Tobique--Mactaquac 48% 29% 5% 18% 4%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 13% 34% 19% 10% 21% 2%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 11% 31% 24% 10% 22% 2%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 11% 47% 15% 10% 15% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 15% 46% 5% 10% 21% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 14% 44% 9% 10% 21% 2%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 11% 44% 9% 10% 25% 2%
Beauce 30% 21% 0% 9% 9% 31%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
35% 26% 6% 9% 21% 3%
Beauport--Limoilou 33% 26% 9% 10% 17% 4%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 15% 24% 6% 10% 42% 3%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 51% 21% 0% 11% 14% 4%
 Beloeil--Chambly 12% 28% 14% 9% 34% 3%
Berthier--Maskinongé 14% 21% 25% 9% 29% 2%
Bourassa 13% 55% 0% 10% 19% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 15% 44% 9% 10% 20% 2%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 16% 50% 9% 9% 13% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 44% 24% 3% 10% 15% 4%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 14% 39% 8% 9% 27% 2%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 44% 31% 2% 9% 11% 3%
Compton--Stanstead 16% 37% 12% 10% 24% 2%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 14% 53% 9% 10% 13% 2%
Drummond 21% 27% 13% 10% 26% 3%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 9% 38% 20% 8% 22% 2%
Gatineau 12% 55% 10% 9% 12% 2%
Hochelaga 11% 31% 15% 11% 30% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 15% 57% 2% 9% 15% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 11% 53% 16% 10% 9% 2%
Joliette 14% 30% 7% 10% 36% 3%
Jonquière 28% 26% 11% 10% 23% 3%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 11% 29% 12% 10% 35% 2%
La Prairie 15% 37% 8% 10% 29% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 31% 24% 11% 9% 20% 4%
Lac-Saint-Louis 20% 62% 0% 10% 6% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 10% 43% 16% 10% 19% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 14% 33% 8% 10% 33% 3%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 8% 35% 17% 11% 25% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 22% 50% 1% 10% 15% 3%
Lévis--Lotbinière 51% 22% 0% 9% 14% 4%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 13% 36% 9% 11% 30% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 12% 31% 15% 10% 30% 2%

Louis-Hébert 30% 36% 4% 10% 17% 3%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 52% 22% 0% 10% 13% 4%
Manicouagan 14% 30% 0% 9% 43% 3%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 16% 43% 5% 10% 25% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 38% 29% 5% 10% 15% 4%
Mirabel 14% 27% 12% 10% 34% 3%
Montarville 14% 33% 9% 10% 31% 4%
Montcalm 14% 29% 5% 10% 40% 3%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
30% 28% 12% 9% 18% 3%
Mount Royal 37% 47% 0% 8% 5% 3%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 17% 56% 9% 10% 6% 2%
Outremont 13% 34% 27% 11% 12% 3%
Papineau 8% 53% 11% 11% 15% 2%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 13% 28% 9% 16% 31% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 22% 57% 4% 9% 7% 2%
Pontiac 17% 56% 6% 9% 9% 2%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 46% 22% 5% 10% 13% 4%
Québec 25% 30% 10% 11% 21% 3%
Repentigny 15% 29% 5% 10% 38% 3%
Richmond--Arthabaska 34% 25% 8% 9% 20% 3%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
14% 28% 19% 9% 28% 2%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 14% 37% 11% 10% 25% 3%
Rivière-du-Nord 12% 28% 12% 11% 35% 3%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 8% 21% 33% 11% 23% 3%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 20% 28% 12% 10% 27% 3%
Saint-Jean 14% 33% 14% 10% 27% 2%
Saint-Laurent 21% 59% 0% 10% 8% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 14% 65% 0% 9% 9% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 19% 42% 5% 10% 22% 3%
Salaberry--Suroît 13% 30% 14% 9% 31% 2%
Shefford 16% 39% 8% 10% 25% 2%
Sherbrooke 13% 31% 20% 10% 24% 2%
Terrebonne 15% 29% 7% 10% 36% 3%
Thérèse-De Blainville 16% 34% 6% 10% 30% 3%
Trois-Rivières 22% 31% 15% 9% 20% 3%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 17% 47% 7% 10% 18% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 15% 49% 10% 12% 12% 2%
Vimy 17% 48% 2% 10% 20% 2%
Ajax 33% 51% 5% 8% 3%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 23% 29% 37% 8% 3%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 44% 43% 3% 8% 3%
Barrie--Innisfil 45% 31% 9% 11% 3%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 40% 36% 8% 13% 4%
Bay of Quinte 33% 45% 10% 10% 3%
Beaches--East York 16% 45% 27% 10% 3%
Brampton Centre 32% 44% 13% 8% 3%
Brampton East 22% 48% 20% 7% 3%
Brampton North 32% 44% 14% 7% 3%
Brampton South 34% 48% 8% 8% 3%
Brampton West 29% 51% 10% 7% 3%
Brantford--Brant 40% 26% 22% 9% 4%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 42% 35% 9% 11% 3%
Burlington 40% 40% 7% 10% 3%
Cambridge 37% 38% 11% 11% 3%
Carleton 44% 38% 4% 11% 3%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 38% 35% 17% 7% 3%
Davenport 10% 40% 38% 10% 3%
Don Valley East 28% 53% 7% 10% 3%
Don Valley North 36% 46% 5% 9% 3%
Don Valley West 36% 49% 3% 9% 3%
Dufferin--Caledon 42% 35% 5% 16% 3%
Durham 43% 30% 13% 10% 3%
Eglinton--Lawrence 41% 44% 4% 9% 3%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 49% 28% 13% 7% 3%
Essex 35% 17% 38% 6% 3%
Etobicoke Centre 36% 48% 5% 9% 3%
Etobicoke North 22% 58% 9% 9% 3%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31% 49% 8% 10% 3%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 42% 34% 11% 10% 3%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 35% 48% 5% 9% 3%
Guelph 25% 44% 9% 19% 3%
Haldimand--Norfolk 44% 34% 11% 7% 3%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 43% 26% 17% 11% 3%
 Hamilton Centre 15% 31% 39% 11% 4%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 24% 34% 29% 9% 3%
Hamilton Mountain 25% 29% 32% 9% 5%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 31% 43% 13% 10% 3%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 40% 37% 10% 10% 3%
Humber River--Black Creek 19% 62% 8% 9% 2%
Huron--Bruce 43% 34% 10% 10% 3%
Kanata--Carleton 37% 45% 4% 11% 3%
Kenora 28% 31% 31% 7% 3%
Kingston and the Islands 21% 50% 14% 12% 3%
King--Vaughan 42% 43% 4% 7% 3%
Kitchener Centre 29% 43% 14% 11% 4%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 35% 37% 13% 11% 4%
Kitchener--Conestoga 41% 37% 7% 10% 4%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 47% 27% 15% 8% 3%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 46% 28% 12% 11% 4%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau45%
Lakes 35% 6% 11% 3%
London North Centre 30% 47% 12% 7% 3%
London West 35% 42% 12% 7% 4%
London--Fanshawe 28% 30% 31% 7% 3%
Markham--Stouffville 34% 37% 0% 8% 3% 19%
Markham--Thornhill 31% 51% 8% 8% 3%
Markham--Unionville 47% 38% 2% 9% 3%
Milton 43% 35% 8% 10% 4%
Mississauga Centre 32% 50% 7% 8% 3%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 34% 50% 6% 7% 3%

Mississauga--Erin Mills 38% 45% 7% 7% 3%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 40% 43% 6% 8% 3%
Mississauga--Malton 25% 55% 10% 7% 3%
Mississauga--Streetsville 39% 44% 7% 8% 3%
Nepean 34% 47% 6% 11% 3%
Newmarket--Aurora 41% 41% 6% 9% 3%
Niagara Centre 29% 31% 28% 9% 3%
Niagara Falls 37% 31% 19% 9% 3%
Niagara West 48% 29% 9% 9% 5%
Nickel Belt 16% 38% 35% 8% 3%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 29% 47% 13% 8% 3%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 38% 37% 12% 10% 3%
Oakville 40% 44% 3% 10% 3%
Oakville North--Burlington 41% 41% 5% 9% 4%
Orléans 29% 53% 5% 10% 3%
Oshawa 37% 22% 29% 9% 3%
Ottawa Centre 13% 37% 35% 11% 3%
Ottawa South 23% 54% 9% 11% 3%
Ottawa West--Nepean 29% 50% 7% 11% 3%
Ottawa--Vanier 18% 51% 16% 11% 3%
Oxford 46% 29% 14% 8% 3%
Parkdale--High Park 12% 37% 36% 10% 4%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 40% 36% 8% 13% 3%
Perth--Wellington 42% 32% 13% 10% 3%
Peterborough--Kawartha 33% 38% 16% 9% 3%
Pickering--Uxbridge 37% 45% 6% 9% 3%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 49% 30% 7% 10% 3%
Richmond Hill 42% 42% 5% 8% 3%
Sarnia--Lambton 38% 23% 29% 7% 3%
Sault Ste. Marie 31% 40% 19% 7% 3%
Scarborough Centre 31% 45% 8% 9% 6%
Scarborough North 26% 43% 19% 9% 3%
Scarborough Southwest 20% 47% 20% 10% 3%
Scarborough--Agincourt 37% 47% 5% 9% 3%
Scarborough--Guildwood 25% 55% 8% 9% 3%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 26% 55% 7% 9% 3%
Simcoe North 42% 34% 8% 12% 3%
Simcoe--Grey 45% 33% 7% 12% 3%
Spadina--Fort York 15% 50% 24% 9% 3%
St. Catharines 36% 39% 13% 9% 3%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 46% 35% 6% 10% 3%
Sudbury 21% 43% 25% 8% 3%
 Thornhill 57% 29% 3% 7% 4%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 20% 39% 27% 11% 3%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 17% 41% 20% 20% 3%
Timmins--James Bay 20% 30% 40% 7% 3%
Toronto Centre 11% 53% 23% 10% 3%
Toronto--Danforth 9% 38% 37% 12% 3%
Toronto--St. Paul's 25% 50% 12% 10% 3%
University--Rosedale 17% 45% 25% 10% 3%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 42% 44% 2% 7% 4%
Waterloo 30% 44% 12% 10% 3%
Wellington--Halton Hills 48% 31% 6% 12% 3%
Whitby 41% 40% 8% 9% 3%
Willowdale 35% 48% 4% 10% 3%
Windsor West 20% 22% 49% 6% 3%
Windsor--Tecumseh 27% 23% 41% 6% 3%
York Centre 42% 42% 5% 9% 3%
York South--Weston 18% 41% 27% 9% 5%
York--Simcoe 48% 32% 6% 10% 3%
Brandon--Souris 58% 26% 0% 11% 4%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
45% 40% 2% 9% 4%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 18% 31% 40% 7% 4%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 59% 19% 7% 10% 4%
Elmwood--Transcona 41% 16% 30% 9% 4%
Kildonan--St. Paul 47% 34% 9% 7% 4%
Portage--Lisgar 71% 14% 0% 10% 4%
Man.

Provencher 64% 23% 0% 9% 4%

Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 35% 47% 6% 9% 3%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 61% 20% 6% 9% 4%
Winnipeg Centre 19% 43% 24% 10% 3%
Winnipeg North 22% 57% 9% 9% 3%
Winnipeg South 41% 47% 1% 8% 4%
Winnipeg South Centre 34% 48% 5% 9% 3%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 66% 9% 14% 6% 4%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 71% 7% 10% 7% 4%
 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 34% 26% 30% 6% 4%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 68% 7% 15% 7% 4%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 59% 10% 20% 7% 4%
Prince Albert 54% 12% 24% 6% 4%
Regina--Lewvan 38% 19% 31% 8% 4%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 48% 14% 26% 8% 4%

Regina--Wascana 32% 48% 8% 8% 3%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 45% 18% 26% 8% 4%
Saskatoon--University 45% 17% 27% 8% 4%
Saskatoon West 36% 16% 36% 8% 4%
Souris--Moose Mountain 73% 6% 10% 7% 4%
Yorkton--Melville 63% 10% 16% 7% 4%
Banff--Airdrie 61% 21% 7% 7% 4%
Battle River--Crowfoot 77% 5% 7% 7% 4%
Bow River 76% 9% 6% 6% 4%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 44% 38% 6% 8% 4%
Calgary Confederation 45% 35% 8% 9% 4%
Calgary Forest Lawn 47% 28% 10% 9% 6%
Calgary Heritage 62% 18% 8% 8% 4%
Calgary Midnapore 65% 15% 8% 9% 4%
Calgary Nose Hill 58% 19% 9% 9% 5%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 59% 24% 6% 8% 4%
Calgary Shepard 64% 17% 7% 9% 4%
Calgary Signal Hill 59% 23% 6% 9% 5%
Calgary Skyview 40% 39% 9% 8% 4%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 35% 30% 24% 6% 4%
Edmonton Griesbach 40% 15% 34% 6% 5%
Edmonton Manning 46% 21% 24% 6% 4%
Edmonton Mill Woods 42% 35% 13% 6% 5%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 50% 23% 17% 6% 5%

Edmonton Strathcona 33% 25% 30% 6% 5%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 49% 28% 13% 6% 4%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 63% 16% 10% 6% 4%
Foothills 73% 9% 7% 7% 4%
 Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 59% 23% 8% 5% 5%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 70% 10% 8% 7% 5%
Lakeland 70% 9% 10% 6% 5%
Lethbridge 56% 14% 20% 6% 4%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 67% 13% 10% 6% 4%
Peace River--Westlock 67% 8% 14% 6% 5%
Red Deer--Mountain View 72% 9% 9% 6% 4%
Red Deer--Lacombe 68% 10% 12% 6% 4%
St. Albert--Edmonton 54% 22% 14% 6% 4%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 65% 14% 10% 6% 5%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 69% 11% 10% 7% 4%
Yellowhead 70% 9% 9% 7% 5%
Abbotsford 50% 27% 7% 12% 3%
Burnaby North--Seymour 31% 29% 23% 14% 4%
Burnaby South 24% 22% 35% 11% 9%
Cariboo--Prince George 40% 26% 20% 11% 3%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 42% 31% 13% 11% 3%
Chilliwack--Hope 44% 28% 12% 12% 4%
Cloverdale--Langley City 38% 38% 8% 13% 3%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 35% 28% 20% 13% 5%
Courtenay--Alberni 30% 17% 29% 21% 3%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 25% 19% 27% 27% 3%
Delta 36% 42% 8% 12% 3%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 20% 22% 26% 29% 3%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 32% 39% 14% 11% 3%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 38% 24% 24% 11% 3%
Kelowna--Lake Country 42% 39% 8% 7% 3%
Kootenay--Columbia 39% 14% 30% 14% 4%
Langley--Aldergrove 45% 31% 5% 14% 4%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 38% 31% 15% 13% 3%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 25% 13% 20% 39% 3%
New Westminster--Burnaby 23% 23% 35% 14% 6%
North Island--Powell River 28% 20% 31% 18% 3%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 41% 24% 19% 12% 3%

BC North Vancouver 30% 50% 0% 17% 3%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 35% 26% 23% 13% 3%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 32% 25% 27% 12% 3%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
55% 19% 9% 12% 5%
Richmond Centre 46% 35% 4% 12% 3%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 21% 12% 2% 62% 3%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 30% 14% 41% 12% 4%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 33% 23% 30% 12% 3%
South Surrey--White Rock 44% 37% 3% 13% 4%
Steveston--Richmond East 41% 38% 5% 13% 4%
Surrey Centre 23% 38% 23% 13% 3%
Surrey--Newton 19% 49% 19% 11% 2%
Vancouver Centre 18% 51% 14% 14% 3%
Vancouver East 12% 25% 42% 18% 3%
Vancouver Granville 17% 28% 10% 12% 3% 31%
Vancouver Kingsway 22% 24% 37% 12% 4%
Vancouver Quadra 27% 53% 5% 13% 3%
Vancouver South 35% 44% 8% 11% 3%
Victoria 15% 22% 23% 37% 3%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky29%
Country48% 3% 18% 3%
Yukon 26% 48% 13% 10% 3%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 21% 43% 23% 10% 3%

Nunavut 27% 42% 20% 9% 3%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats