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artificial systems when they resemble humans, until they get so close that and intersections between humans and machines. other domains, the machines will become our collaborators, augmenting machine for living in,” and should be designed as such. Indeed, as we
they fall just short of the mark. Robots that look almost human are creepy. Each big forecast is supported with a “from/to” state- our own skills and abilities. The first robot boom was in the 1950s, when begin to share our homes, offices, and cities with robots, our entire built
It may be possible to bridge this barrier, but it may also be that, in general, ment, suggesting a dramatic shift from where we are factory workers met the first industrial robots. Films like The Day The environment will become more machine-like. Robots will move out of rigid
attempts to build systems that too closely mimic humans may have been a today to where we’re going in the future. Earth Stood Still and Forbidden Planet packed theaters, and tin toy robots structured environments such as factories and laboratories and “into the
false start. This theme is already emerging in Artificial Intelligence (AI) delighted kids. And now, as robots move out of the factories and make wild.” As a result, we’ll have to accommodate their needs. For the near
research and could begin to take hold in next-generation robotics. Over real a century of science fiction, we will once again see these machines in future, robots will count on pervasive wireless networks, ubiquitous
the next decade, robotics approaches will shift toward new and unfamiliar a new light, and we will also reconsider how we see ourselves. charging stations, “robot lanes,” and objects tagged with identifiers to
designs that are less informed by popular past images of robots and more The sub- fore casts: help them navigate a world they never made. Of course, re-engineering
uncanny Of course, visions of the future of robotics could easily veer into
by the actual circumstances these systems are designed to handle. Indeed, valley is
Under the umbrella of each big forecast are three or our infrastructure for a new breed of mechanical cohabitants is also an
elevated
dystopia. Hollywood loves a good cautionary tale of robots turning against
as stated in a recent Purdue University psychological study of how children four sub-forecasts, quick-hit forecasts that relate to opportunity to improve things for everyone—robots and humans alike.
humanity, taking over the world, and generally wreaking havoc. But as
relate to robots, we may start to see “the emergence of a new ontological and expand on the bigger stories. Eventually, the affordances will outweigh the compromises we make
you delve into the specific domains where robots will likely have the most
category, neither artifact nor living being.” for our robot brethren.
impact, a much richer canvas of possibilities emerges. That is because
machines never replace humans but rather change the nature of what
robots raise the bar: humans can do and establish new expectations and standards of H u man- Machine M u tual A id S o ciet y:
si gnal s : performance. Certainly some routine jobs will be taken over by machines.
From being “only human” to new performance standards From executing programs to mutal self-improvement
Each cluster of forecasts is connected to signals, That has already happened and will continue. But the real power in
The old folktale of railroad worker John Henry racing against a steam- early indicators and present day examples that are robotics technologies lies in their ability to augment and extend our own Robots of all kinds will be assisting humans in a variety of tasks:
powered hammer still exemplifies the anxieties around machines competing signposts to the future, categorized by area of impact. capabilities. Our tools change us in unexpected ways, and the next during surgery to collaboratively achieve unparalleled precision, putting
for our jobs. And in the Robot Renaissance, these flames will be fanned generation of robotic tools can be no different. We will make new robots, students through their paces, or sharing the grunt work of repetitive
again. We can no longer judge our capabilities relative to each other. but the robots will also make us. science experiments. Robots will learn by physically mimicking human
We’ve watched computers defeat grandmasters in chess, a milestone that actions and behaviors, and getting better with each repetition. But through
many experts thought was decades in the distance. And soon, our job This map, and the associated series of written perspectives, are tools to observation and real-time analysis, they will also evolve new techniques
areas of impact:
performance will be compared to that of our robotic workmates. In fact, help navigate the coming changes. As we scanned across ten application to improve performance. So while we teach the robots to be more like
Radiating out from the seven big forecasts are three domains, seven big forecasts emerged. In the process, we also identified
robots may be the ones conducting the reviews. And as we still struggle us, there will be no shortage of lessons to be learned from our machine
rings, or areas of impact, that signify how the robot three key areas of impact where the robot renaissance will change our lives
with teamwork, robots will easily collaborate, share resources, and form collaborators. Indeed, the most successful human-robot relationships will
renaissance will change our lives through increased over the next decade.
swarms to achieve unprecedented scale and complete tasks without human be those that are squarely symbiotic.
understanding, augmentation, and automation.
assistance. They’ll work 24/7, without sleep and without complaints. In each domain we focus on three levels of impacts:
1. Robots helping humans understand ourselves
Hu man- Ro b ot Di visi on o f Lab o r: 2. Robots augment human abilities
From a global division of labor to a robotic workforce 3. Robots automate human tasks
For decades, the law of comparative advantage has governed economic Technology Horizons Program Although this is a convenient framework, the lines are necessarily blurred.
thinking. At its core is a belief that when an individual, firm, or country is 124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor For example, machines that automate human tasks frequently also aug-
able to produce a particular good or service at the lowest price, benefits Palo Alto, CA 94301 ment our capacities and might teach us a thing or two about who we really
accrue to everyone. When we are able to trade goods and services freely, 650.854.6322 www.iftf.org are. But considered in its entirety, this map and set of perspectives should
focusing on what one produces most efficiently will bring greater growth only spark excitement, and even cautious optimism, about the possible
across global markets. That’s the idea behind a global division of labor— IFTF’s Technology Horizons Program’s Robot Renaissance: The Future
futures of human-machine interaction. After all, what’s more quintessentially
workers in different countries producing at the least cost and highest of Human-Machine Interaction Map is licensed under Creative Commons futuristic than a robot maid? Welcome to the Robot Renaissance!
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efficiency. As nimble robots enter our workforce, we’ll also be faced with licensing see http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/us/.
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new issues around the human-machine division of labor. SR-1348A