De La Salle University - Manila

Industrial Engineering Department

SYSDYN1 PROJECT PROGRESS REPORT 3

A Case Study Presented to

Mr. Jose Edgar Mutuc

In Partial Fulfillment of the Course Requirements in

LBYIEEH
3rd Term, Academic Year 2018-2019

Presented by:
King, Raymond Benedict J.
Sabularse, Julian Lorenzo E.

07/10/19
 1. Introduction

Corporate loggers have damaged much of the tropical forests in the Asia-Pacific. It has
become evident that, in-spite of the growth of both local and global concerns, that these corporate
loggers still continue their, quote and quote, malpractices; thereby contributing to ever-growing
endeming of deforestation. With this in mind, the books main idea revolves around the
relationship of the deforestation, with respect to corporate loggers, in the Asia-Pacific, specifically
Southeast Asia, and the events, politics, and ideas related to colonialism, corruption, agricultural
& industrial reform, the Asian Financial Crisis, and capitalism. The book uses data collected
between 1990 and 1995 but recalls and acknowledges past events in analyzing the causes of the
state of the forests in the Asia-Pacific. There are four main issues that the book addresses. These
are the science of forest management, the complexity of the process of forest degradation and
deforestation, the comparative weakness of environmental pressures and reformers, both within
and outside states, the inability and unwillingness of states to regulate logging practices, enforce
environmental rules or change fees that reflect the full social and environmental costs of logging.

Corporate loggers have damaged much of the tropical forests in the Asia-Pacific. It has
become evident that, in-spite of the growth of both local and global concerns, that these corporate
loggers still continue their, quote and quote, malpractices; thereby contributing to ever-growing
endeming of deforestation. With this in mind, the books main idea revolves around the
relationship of the deforestation, with respect to corporate loggers, in the Asia-Pacific, specifically
Southeast Asia, and the events, politics, and ideas related to colonialism, corruption, agricultural
& industrial reform, the Asian Financial Crisis, and capitalism. The book uses data collected
between 1990 and 1995 but recalls and acknowledges past events in analyzing the causes of the
state of the forests in the Asia-Pacific. There are four main issues that the book addresses. These
are the science of forest management, the complexity of the process of forest degradation and
deforestation, the comparative weakness of environmental pressures and reformers, both within
and outside states, the inability and unwillingness of states to regulate logging practices, enforce
environmental rules or change fees that reflect the full social and environmental costs of logging.
 State resource management is heavily influenced by modern science. In the case of
forestry, this is called scientific forestry. The backbone of scientific forestry lies in the theory of
sustainable yield. This concept is at the core of the majority of the forest management models in
Asia-Pacific. In forestry jargon, sustainable yield refers to “harvesting the wood increment
without drawing down of forest capital”. In layman’s terms, this refers to the annual amount
loggers can remove that will regenerate over the cutting cycle and allow equivalent commercial
volumes in subsequent harvests. When applied, theoretically, this suggests in cutting a wide
variety of trees, as to ensure that there be enough left to sustain the species. It also put the rights of
the forest people at stake. As stated by Michael Leigh in the case of Sarawak, “In critical respects,
the views of the forest dwellers are irrelevant or, at worst, of minor nuisance value; and, have
remained so expect when articulation of those views threatened to affect the market for tropical
lumber.
Sustainable yield is based on a lot of estimates. Government assumes that the collected
data is accurate. To compute for sustainable yield, one would need to divide the total number of
commercial timber in the forest to the length of time for natural regeneration. This is an almost
impossible statistic to accurately measure. This leads to inaccuracy in the actual sustainable yield,
errors in forest management, and, subsequently, deforestation.

The idea of scientific management was introduced to the Asia-Pacific through

colonization. These colonizers brought the ideas of large-scale extraction, methods to calculate
regrowth, and methods on how to manage tree harvests. These techniques paved the way to the
idea of development and social well being. This also included the accompanying belief that
indeginous knowledge and practices was destructive.

Apart from the theoretical scientific part of forest management, we also have to look at the
political and economical aspects of forestry. This stand as the The complexity of the process of
forest degradation and deforestation. In spite of laws, reforms, and techniques such as forest
management, political and bureaucratic [atrons protect and exempt timber clients from costly
environmental regulations. These loggers can avoid or simply ignore certain laws in regards to
forestry and the preservation of forests. Now, these loggers work with respect to how the economy
and the market, subsequently, behave. When demand and prices are high, the loggers would try to
get as much as they can. One technique they used is to log on one concentrated area. This makes it
seem less aggravating as, visually, there is still a large area covered by forest.

There have been numerous attempts in creating environmental pressures to push reforms
in management of forests. In 1992, attempts to create an international convention in the Earth
Summit failed. United Nations has also provided efforts in creating a dialogue between countries
through the UN Forest Forum to discuss policies and implementation of policies on forests but left
the idea of an international convention open. Since the Earth Summit in 1992, there have also
been other international meetings on forest management. However, the book states that
international agreements and negotiations have had very little impact and effect on the behaviour
of loggers.

The International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO) and The Tropical Forest Action
Plan were both widely criticized for the promotion of traditional forest management in the
Asia-Pacific. ITTO found it difficult to implement and enforce policies due to this.

Another effort to help forest management are donations. Donors have helped countries
during environmental crises. However, the funding of projects have been seen to be tied to
corporate and strategic interests instead of the actual environmental needs of the recipients.
Moreover, donors have also been criticized for failing to create lasting changes. The projects
appear to have been band-aid solutions instead of addressing the causes.

State capacity is understood as the ability of the state to maintain social control, make
policies, impose rules, provide basic services, and manage the national economy including natural
resources. State goals/policies have an impact on state capacity. Some goals/policies will have
strong commitment from other leaders while some will have a weak commitment to it. This could
mainly be because of ideological reasons. Some goals act as camouflage to appease international
and domestic critics.

States are complex entities that simultaneously resist and promote stronger environmental
controls. Most states in the Asia-Pacific have strengthened at least expanded their environmental
agencies over the last few decades. Other bureaucratic agencies have also staked out some
environmental turf, most notably from forestry departments. Yet these environmental forces are
relatively weak compared to other sections of the state, especially those aligned with businesses.
For example, the Indonesian Ministry of the Environment, and the environmental sections of the
Indonesian, Sarawak, Sabah, and Solomon Islands departments of forestry all have small budgets,
limited technical and human resources, and relatively little support from within and outside the
bureaucracy.

Environmental management is particularly prone to fall on the weak end of the continuum.
This occurs because environmental concerns tend to provoke low levels of state determination and
high levels of societal resistance. Some states are simply overwhelmed by corporate and economic
pressures, contributing to ineffective policies, inadequate institutional resources and diluted
implementation. Unclear or weak state legal authority over particular resources can further
undermine state capacity. In other cases, states have more control over policy formulation but
enforcement in non-existent. This does not presume that strong state capacity is necessary for
effective environmental management, only that most states tend to be weak environmental
managers.

Given the background of the book, the author aims or his objective is to to deepen the
readers’ understanding of why the forests are disappearing in the asia-pacific by highlighting the
complex, volatil, capitalist settings and structures within which firms and governments seek
revenue. By tackling this, the authors presents his theoretical understanding of why corporations
continue to degrade natural environments and resist environmental reforms.

There are 3 major players in the dynamic problem. The first would be the
reformers/environmentalists. These are the people or organizations that push change in terms of
environmental laws/policies or try to stop any existing malpractices in forest management. The
second group would be the state. The state is tasked to manage resources, enforce laws,
implement policies and etc. The state is important because without the state, there would be no
laws protecting the forests. Reforms will have to pass through the state before it can actually
happen. The last group would be the loggers/corporations. Compared to the 2 groups mentioned
prior, this group is the direct doer of the problem. Basically, loggers are the corporations or groups
of people that cut and take logs from forests either legally or illegally.

Any problem can have short term and long term effects. In this case of deforestation, short
term effects could be loss of animal habitats. The ecosystem is altered. Another short term effect
could be the lack of a certain type of lumber or certain type of tree. Different trees and the
corresponding wood have different uses. Long term effects could be complete depletion of
tropical forests. This entails a much greater impact in the environment. Forests play a big role in
adapting to climate change and losing forests may mean speeding up global warming.

The issues presented are the perceived causes as to why the problem (an increase in
logging and degradation of forests) persisted throughout 1990-1995. The significance of the
issues is to be able to find the root causes. Finding the gap in the root causes may be able to
identify why the problem panned out as it did. Also, another significance of the issue is that the
problem is deconstructed and seen at the perspective of each issue. Looking at the problem using
each issue may help in finding the reason and the root cause.
 2. Literature (Book) review – Use the SD perspective in the following discussions

With regards to the science of forest management and complexity of the deforestation
process. The very first characteristic that best describes this issue is; self-organizing. The problem
with the science of forest management is that it is too tedious and a lot of steps are necessary
before one can actually cut down the trees. Consequently, due to the complexity of the process,
the governing bodies on the forests use rough estimates and consequently cut more trees than they
are supposed to. Also, policies as to how to properly get lumber from the forests are not followed
due to corruption. Some officials handling forests get a cut from these illegal loggers and in return
they let them cut lumber on their own terms.

Another characteristic of the problem is that it is governed by feedback. Most if not all
illegal loggers are driven by the market. If the market needs a lot of lumber then loggers will cut
down more trees. Thus, contributing to the problem of rapid forest degradation.

For the weak impact of pressures and reformers, it can be governed by feedback; reform
was always hindered by societal resistance. When people criticize the movement or question the
policies of the government or organizations there is societal pressure and state capacity is affected
in a negative manner. It can also be counterintuitive. It was mentioned in the problem that projects
driven by donors only create a bandage solution instead of solving root causes.

Once again, the book focuses on deforestation, the clearance, clearcutting or clearing is the
removal of a forest or stand of trees from land which is then converted to a non-forest use. the
Forest Cover is the statistic that quantifies the amount of land area covered by forests, the forest
canopy, or open woodlands. Therefore, the statistic that should serve as the problem variable
would be the % Loss of Forest Cover. The book provides data on the Average % Loss of Forest
Cover from 1990-1995 in regions belonging to the Asia-Pacific Region; specifically, Southeast
Asia. This is presented in Table 1.
 Table 1. Total Forest Cover Loss from 1990-1995

Total Natural Forest Cover Total Natural Forest Cover Loss Total %
Country (1995, in sq.km) (1990-1995, in sq.km) Loss

Brunei Darussalam 4,430 88 1.99%

Burma (Myanmar) 383,400 22,530 5.88%

Cambodia 125,500 7170 5.71%

Indonesia 1,089,700 95,680 8.78%

Laos 170,800 5590 3.27%

Malaysia 221,300 3,970 1.79%

Philippines 68,300 -2,400 -3.51%

Singapore 176 0 0.00%

Thailand 155,700 -15,080 -9.69%

Vietnam 107,300 -12020 -11.20%

Total 2,327,000 105,520 4.53%

From Table 1, it can be seen that six out of the ten countries taken into consideration have
experienced loss of forest cover from 1990 to 1995. These countries are Brunei Darussalam,
Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia; with Indonesia having the largest loss at 8.78%
and Brunei Darussalam having the lowest loss at 1.99%. In fact, in total, Southeast Asia has
experienced a 4.53% loss in regard to total forest cover. However, in spite of that fact, there are 3
countries that actually gained forest cover. These countries are the Philippines, Thailand, and
Vietnam; with the Philippines having the lowest growth at 3.27% and Vietnam having the highest
at 11.20%.
 The data provided in the book, however, is not sufficient for an analysis that would reveal
relationships between factors. The averaged data set would not translate into a graph that would
display trends and patterns. Not only that, but the true impact of the increases or decreases in the
percentages of forest cover could be hidden due to the lack of current percent forest cover. For
example, yes, the Philippines’ forest cover increased by about 3% from 1990-1995 but is that if
the percentage of forest cover to total area is extremely low, then would the increase really be that
much of a good thing? Therefore, to help in the analysis, the proponents used external data.The
data collected is that of the total land forest area of each country included in the book this is
presented in Table 2. Only data from 1990-1995 was used.
Table 2: Area of Forest Cover per Country in sq.km

Country/Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Brunei
Darussalam 4,518.03 4,500.16 4,482.86 4,465.57 4,447.70 4,430.40

Burma
(Myanmar) 406,012.66 401,479.61 397,014.21 392,481.16 388,015.76 383,482.71

Cambodia 132,752.97 131,322.79 129,874.51 128,444.33 127,014.16 125,583.98

1,185,450. 1,166,314.0 1,147,178.0 1,128,042.0 1,108,906.0 1,089,770.0

Indonesia 00 0 0 0 0 0

Laos 176,449.00 175,330.10 174,211.19 173,092.31 171,973.30 170,854.49

Malaysia 225,309.92 224,516.00 223,722.07 222,928.14 222,134.21 221,340.29

Philippines 65,940.00 66,420.00 66,900.00 67,380.00 67,860.00 68,340.00

Singapore 176.05 176.05 176.05 176.05 176.05 176.05

Thailand 140,646.19 143,673.60 146,701.01 149,728.42 152,755.82 155,731.92

Vietnam 95,289.12 97,673.83 100,091.66 102,476.37 104,894.21 107,312.04

2,432,543. 2,411,406.1 2,390,351.5 2,369,214.3 2,348,177.2 2,327,021.8

Total 94 2 6 4 1 8
 The data in Table 2 represents the amount of area that is covered by forest. Looking at this,
a clearer picture on the situation of deforestation in southeast asia can be painted. To better see the
growth of the data, the percent of forest area to the total area of each country was computed. The
total area per country is presented in Table 3 while the percent of forest cover area to total area is
presented in Table 4.

Table 3: Total area per country.

Country sq. km

Brunei Darussalam 5,765

Burma (Myanmar) 676,575

Cambodia 181,035

Indonesia 1,905,000

Laos 236,800

Malaysia 330,803

Philippines 300,000

Singapore 721.5

Thailand 513,120

Vietnam 331,210

Total 4,481,030
 Table 4: % of Forest Cover to Total Area by Country.

Country/Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

Brunei
Darussalam 78.37 78.06 77.76 77.46 77.15 76.85

Burma
(Myanmar) 60.01 59.34 58.68 58.01 57.35 56.68

Cambodia 73.33 72.54 71.74 70.95 70.16 69.37

Indonesia 62.23 61.22 60.22 59.21 58.21 57.21

Laos 74.51 74.04 73.57 73.10 72.62 72.15

Malaysia 68.11 67.87 67.63 67.39 67.15 66.91

Philippines 21.98 22.14 22.3 22.46 22.62 22.78

Singapore 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.4

Thailand 27.41 28 28.59 29.18 29.77 30.35

Vietnam 28.77 29.49 30.22 30.94 31.67 32.4

Total 54.29 53.81 53.34 52.87 52.40 51.93

With the percentages displayed in Table 4, the respective trends could now be seen more
easily. Now, it can be determined if the situation of a country would be good or bad regardless of
whether or not growth was present. Looking back, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam was
seen to an increase in the area of forest cover. However, looking at Table 4, it can bee seen that
they would have the lowest value of area of forest cover. Ideally, with the exception of Vietnam
(actually having relatively good increase), they had basically maintained their troubled state from
1990-1995. Therefore, while looking at the total values of percentage of total forest cover area to
total area, it can be said that in general, the amount of forest cover in Southeast Asia is on the
decline. To clearly see the growth of deforestation in these countries, the values in Figure are now
translated into a line graph, as presented in Figure 1.
 Figure 1. Growth of Forest Cover in the Concerned Countries

Through the graph presented in Figure 1, it can be seen that all countries with percentages
higher that 50% are sloped downwards while all those below 40% sloped upwards. This suggests
that countries with more resources tend to lose more forest cover as, in perspective, it seems like
they could live with some loss while counties with already low levels of resources tend to try to at
least maintain what they have. The fact that countries with relatively lower levels of resources
cannot seem to improve their situation regarding deforestation is due to acclimatizing to
superficial needs. It can also be seen that all of the trends, to the naked eye, are almost linear.
This is because the increment of change is in the tens’ percentage. If looked at as a simple
percentage, this may seem small. However, in retrospect, the actual numbers are large. For
example, looking back at Table 4, Malaysia is losing about 1000 sq.km of forest cover a year.
This suggests that their forest management is below par and that they are using more than they can
replace.
 To better see the actual change in the area of forest cover, the data can be presented as
percent loss. This was done by subtracting the area of forest cover of the previous year from the
current year and then dividing the difference by the area of the previous year. These values are
presented in Table 5 and is translated in to a line graph in Figure 2.

Table 5: Percent Loss in Forest Cover Area

Country/Year 1990-1991 1991-1992 1992-1993 1993-1994 1994-1995

Brunei
Darussalam -0.3956 -0.3843 -0.3858 -0.4002 -0.3889

Burma
(Myanmar) -1.1165 -1.1122 -1.1418 -1.1377 -1.1683

Cambodia -1.0773 -1.1028 -1.1012 -1.1135 -1.1260

Indonesia -1.6142 -1.6407 -1.6681 -1.6964 -1.7257

Laos -0.6341 -0.6382 -0.6423 -0.6465 -0.6506

Malaysia -0.3524 -0.3536 -0.3549 -0.3561 -0.3574

Philippines 0.7279 0.7227 0.7175 0.7124 0.7073

Singapore 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Thailand 2.1525 2.1071 2.0637 2.0219 1.9483

Vietnam 2.5026 2.4754 2.3825 2.3594 2.3050

Total -0.8690 -0.8731 -0.8843 -0.8879 -0.9009

 Figure 2. Growth of Percent Change in Forest Cover Area
The information presented in Table 5 and Figure 2 would show a more rigid representation
of the same data set. Instead of being seemingly linear, it can be seen that the annual percent
change could actually go up or down. Now, as the percent change represents the actual change in
a more compact manner, the true trend can be seen. Looking at Figure 2, the fact that countries
with relatively high levels of resources would have the area of forest cover sloped down, that
countries with sparse resources would have the area of forest cover sloped up, and that the general
trend of south east asia would be on the decline can be justified. This is because, now, the
countries who had low levels of resources are more at the top of the graph, positive, but still on
the decline and that the countries with high levels of resource below 0, negative, and still
declining.
 Based on the data analyzed, it can be assumed that these trends would continue as they are.
This is due to the fact that forest management is based on such a theoretical measurement and that
most of the countries in Southeast Asia are subjected to corruption. Not only that, but, it is highly
probable that deforested areas be developed into infrastructure that would benefit modern times,
such as roads, highways, and buildings. The countries with a relatively sufficient amount of
resources would see the area of forest cover reduce; and, it will only stop once it becomes scarce.
Remaining at a low level for an extended period of time.

The reference mode presents a negative linear graph. The scope of each time step is very
large (1 year) which caused the reference mode to be linear. If the data were studied and presented
per month for 5 years (1990-1995) it would have captured the changes in slope and points of
inflection. However, the data that the book gave was on a per year basis, not per month. So to be
able to simulate the data more properly, the same timeline and time step is used.
 Looking at one aspect of data alone may not be enough to determine the true nature of the
data set. For example, if we look at percent loss by it self, then we can say that a country like the
Philippines, which actually grew a total of about 3%, would be in a good place with respect to
deforestation. The initial response would be to assume that this is correct. However, looking at the
percentage of forest cover area to total area, it can be seen that the Philippines hovers around 20%
from 1990-1995. This is extremely low. So, its not that the philippines was in a good place
because it was experiencing an increase in forest cover. Rather, the Philippines was in a bad place
and it couldn’t get much worse or they were desperately trying to conserve what little forest cover
they had left.
 3. Qualitative Analysis
Number of trees cut can be a basis of measuring the problem, however the number of trees
in Asia could take a long period to be able to count it and get the exact number. Another way of
measuring the problem presented by the book is ​% ​Forest Cover. Percentage Forest Cover is the
chosen dimension of the problem variable because this is the unit of measurement used by the
author. Also, in the past, foresters would use field and aerial surveys to collect forest cover data,
and aerial photography was used for plot-based analysis of forest stocks. With the advent of
satellite imaging technology, it is much more common to use remote sensing techniques to
monitor forest data, in particular tropical deforestation. Researchers have often used the
Worldwide Reference System to provide satellite imagery data to analyze forest trends. That said,
the usual measurement for degradation of forest is through percentage estimates. In addition,
research done regarding forest

The intended audience of the study is the respective governments of Asian countries. This
is because only the government has the power over these lands. The government creates laws
regarding forests. The government typically has administration rights over lands except for those
which are privately owned (for example; by firms) or owned by local government. In terms of
percentages, there are researches done indicating that 68% (in 2002) of forests in Asia are
administered by the government. This figure may be more when backtracked to 1990-1995. This
number also equates to how much of the problem will be within the control of the target audience.

The problem that the book discusses is the degradation in the Asia-Pacific due to different
factors but ultimately pointing to one major effect which is the decrease in forest cover. The
problem will cover all indirect causes discussed by the book which leads to cutting down of trees.
These are: corruption, political preference, weak environmental policies, illegal loggers, and
overall poor forest management. The spatial scope is limited to the Asia-pacific consisting South
Asia, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Pacific Islands.
 Figure 1. Multi-causal Loop Diagram

As previously stated, the forest cover serves as the problem variable. The only truly direct
reason that deforestation occurs, according to the book, is the cutting of trees. Logically speaking,
the only way that the forests would degrade is if the thing that characterizes them, the trees, would
disappear. Therefore, to affect forest cover, the causes of tree cutting must be considered. There
are four direct causes to tree cutting. This is the sustainable yield, plans to transform forests into
infrastructure, interest of loggers to log, and environmental policy implementation the general
causal diagram is presented in figure 1.

Looking at the different relationships in figure 1, one could see how each factor affects
the problem variable. Before looking at the direct causes, however, we look at the relationship of
cutting trees to the problem variable. Cutting trees directly affects deforestation in a positive
relationship. The more trees cut, the more apparent deforestation becomes. Then, as deforestation
becomes more apparent

Now, looking at the direct causes, the “Interest of Loggers to Log” would have a positive
relationship with the cutting of the trees. Logically speaking, when loggers are interested to cut
trees, naturally, more trees will be cut. Sustainable yield, or the amount of trees that can be cut
that regrowth can compensate for, has a positive relationship with the cutting of trees. This is
because if the allowable amount to cut is more, then loggers would cut more. After all, this was
the value that was legally constraining them.Plans to transform infrastructure would also have a
positive relationship with the cutting of trees. This is because if there is a need to build
infrastructure in rural areas, forest land would be turned into infrastructure. Lastly, The
implementation of Environmental Policies would have a negative relationship with the cutting of
trees. This is because if the correct policies would be implemented, then the amount of trees being
cut would be reduced to a sustainable level. To further analyse the causes, the proponents used the
forward pass method to understand its origins and how it would ultimately affect the problem
variable.
 Figure 2. Interest of Loggers to Log

Figure 2 explains the origins of the interest of loggers to log. This has 2 effects that can
happen simultaneously. It leads to bribery to the local government to allow the loggers to operate
even beyond restrictions. This leads to an increase in corruption. Corruption then, will affect the
quality of forest management in a negative manner. This is to be able to protect the loggers to be
able to log more and in turn profit from them as well. It also leads to cutting more trees legally or
illegally which causes scarcity of wood level to rise. This triggers an increase in price which will
mean a decrease in demand. In turn, a decreasing demand will make loggers uninterested to log.

Interest of loggers is a direct cause to cutting trees. It is a direct cause because this is the
actual behaviour of the loggers which enable them to log. Interest may be caused by the money
the business entails but it can also be caused by the weak forest management. A weaker forest
management will entice more loggers to log. This is because the fear of apprehension is now out
of the picture. Through this, the loggers may be able to log however they want and how much
they want.
 Figure 3. Sustainable Yield

Figure 3 shows the origins of the sustainable yield. The variables of the loop are somehow
computational. When the obtained number for sustainable yield is increased it basically means
more trees will be cut. In effect, when more trees are cut deforestation increases as well. Then,
when deforestation is increased, forest cover decreases. Thus, a negative relationship. Lastly,
when forest cover decreases, sustainable yield will evidently be low because the figures to be used
(amount of trees) in computing for the sustainable yield are smaller now because the forest cover
is now less.

Sustainable Yield is a direct cause of cutting trees because it will decide how much trees
will be cut. Basically, it describes the amount of trees that will be cut based on mathematical
computations. It is not really a cause and effect type of variable but an equation causing an
increase or decrease of trees to cut.
 Figure 4. Environmental Policy Implementation

In figure 4, we focus on Environmental Policy Implementation. According to the book,

policies in line with environmental concerns aid in the preservation of the forests. If these goals
are properly set and implemented, then there should be an apparent increase in the forest cover. A
big reason as to why more trees are being cut than allowed and why the manner in which trees are
cut is wrong is the lack of effective implementation.

Figure 5. Plan to transform Forests Into Infrastructure

 Lastly, looking at figure 5, it can be seen that the reason from wanting to transform forests
into infrastructure would be because of the want or need for development. Countries need
infrastructure to efficiently and effectively develop. However, as the building of infrastructure
would need a clear space, rural forested area would inevitably be logged. Again, quality of forest
management is still in the mix because it is this regard that the cutting of trees can be properly
monitored.

Figure 6. Complete Causal Loop.

Now, after looking at the origins of the direct causes, we can now connect all of the loops
to from one cohesive causal loop. The main connecting point would be the Quality of Forest
Management, and the sustainable yield. This is presented in Figure 6. These two points connect all
of the loops together. Environmental Related State Goals, which is part of the loop focused around
Environmental policy implementation and also around the plans to transform forests areas into
infrastructure,, has a positive relationship with the quality of forest management because the
environmental policies focused on forestry should help in the accuracy of the data collected for
forest management techniques. Then, the quality of forest management would have a relative
relationship with sustainable yield. as one of the problems is that sustainable yield is set at a value
that is too high to sustain, having better quality of forest management should reduce the yield to a
level that is sustainable. This, of course, connects all the loops and forms one cohesive loop.
 4. Stock flow diagrams and simulation

Loop 1

The given stock flow diagram illustrates the effect of sustainable yield to the total forest
cover of the Asia-Pacific. The unit of measurement used is in square kilometers. There is an initial
amount for the level variable, forest cover, for the first year (1990) which is around 2,500,000 sq
km. The level variable will either increase or decrease throughout the timeline due to the planting
rate vs cutting rate. The planting rate is random ranging from 8,000 to 1,0000 sq km per year. This
amount for the variable (planting rate) will be identical for all the causes discussed or to be
discussed to be able to see the effect of each rate individually given the overall planting rate. The
planting rate will simply equate to the restoration of forest cover per year.

The outflow will be the opposite of the inflow which is the cutting rate. The cutting rate is
based on the sustainable yield. The sustainable yield is a rate. The rate of sustainable yield is
0.001 of the current forest cover. This sustainable yield is only a rate to be able to preserve the
majority of the current forest cover (0.9999) forests. In addition, there is a random percent error
ranging from 0.0001 to 0.0005 since forest cover can never be measured with 100% accuracy.
Loop 2

The second loop to be addressed is the loop that focuses on the number of loggers who
will cut trees.The level that this loop would focus on will obviously be Forest cover. This can be
consistent in all loops as this would be the whole system’s problem variables. The rates that would
direct this level would be reforestation and deforestation.
Forest cover is considered a level because it accumulates. The status of the previous
period stands as the basis of the current period’s status and, this, the future period’s status. For
example, if the forest cover in year N would be 10,000 sq.km of trees, the forest cover of year
N+1 would be based on the 10,00 sq.km of trees in year N. Only to decrease or increase
depending on the activities or events that would occur on yeah N+1. This justifies the
accumulating nature. Reforestation would be the factor that would serve as the inflow for forest
cover. The definition of reforestation is not merely the growth of trees. It is the growth of trees in
such a manner that the area that trees cover increases. An increase in the amount of trees in the
forest area that is widespread enough to be considered reforestation should increase the forest
cover. On the other hand, the factor that would serve as the outflow would be deforestation. As
the polar opposite of reforestation, its only logical that this be the outflow. When the amount of
area that trees cover is reduced, then so should forest cover. Presented in Figure 2, is the stock
flow diagram of the aforementioned loop.
 Scarcity would increase or decrease depending on the amount of trees. The less trees there
are, the more scarce wood would become; the more trees there are and as the abundance increases,
the less scarce wood would become. The more trees there are, the less scarce wood actually
becomes. And the less trees there are, the more scarce wood becomes. Increasing the level of
scarcity. This then would affect the price index of wood. In the perspective of the loggers, the
price would go up as there is less supply. This would increase the perceived demand of wood and
interest of loggers to log simultaneously; excluding the fact that the perceived demand increases
the interest of loggers independently as well. This will affect the number of logger who will cut
trees. Which will increase cutting rate. This would also affect the quality of forest management.
This would either ultimately affect either deforestation or reforestation in accordance to whether
or not the value of the quality of forest management is high or not.
Loop 3

The third loop is concerned with the effectiveness of Environmental Policy

Implementation. The policy implementation is dependent on the interest of the government
specifically the politicians. It was stated in the book that there are some politicians that are
interested in other state goals rather than those about the forest. With this, the interest of
politicians to environmental policies will be the percentage of the number of environmental state
over all state goals.
This could mean that with more interest on the environmental state goals from the
government official, more environmental policies could be implemented. Consequently, the
quality of forest management will improve. This will control the cutting of trees and will yield a
positive growth in forest cover.
Again, the level variable in the stock flow diagram will be the forest cover to be able to see
the trend of how much trees are cut or planted every year. Another level variable to be used in the
problem is the environmental policies. The number of policies/laws accumulate throughout time,
unless proven to be ineffective and removed by the government. This level variable will have an
inflow of environmental policy implemented per year and an outflow of environmental policies
dissolved/removed. The equations that are inputted into this loop are displayed below.
Loop 4

The last loop would focus on the intent of governments to prioritize infrastructure
development. The level that this would revolve around would still be that of the Forest Cover. As
infrastructure would require land, tree would inevitably be cut. This would lead to deforestation
and, ultimately, a decrease is the forest cover. Now, this loop is banked on the ratio of other state
goals and environmental state goals. The lower the ratio, the higher the quality of forest
management would be. This would then led to the growth of trees and, ultimately, reforestation.
On the other hand, if the ratio would be high, then the quality of forest management would be low.
This would lead to the cutting of trees, and inevitably, deforestation.
 The given diagram is a combined stock flow of 2 factors. The factors used were the effects
of development and policy implementation. These 2 were used because they were relatively
connected in the sense that the drivers of these factors is the government. The connecting variable
that was able to merge the 2 stockflows was the Interest from Government. This confirms that the
2 factors are driven by the government. The variable was able to link the 2 stockflows because the
Interest form the Government is characterized by the ratio of environmental state goals to all state
goals. So as this ratio decreases, the interest of the government to cut trees may increase in
strength. Also, with the increase in the difference of all state goals to environmental state goals,
more developmental state goals may concretize which will also increase cutting rate due to
conversion of lands (with trees) to any type of infrastructure. On the other hand, environmental
state goals may also be a controlling variable for the stockflow. This is because environmental
state goals influence quality of forest management. Then, the quality of forest management will
affect the planting rate as well as current number of trees.

The graph signifies that the controlling variables from the stockflow diagram have little to
no effect to the rate of tree cutting. The cutting of trees is far greater than the growth of trees. The
diagram also shows a linear graph. This means that the cutting rate for the 5 year timeline has
been somehow constant.
 The next loop that was added to the expanded stock flow diagram would be the loop on
sustainable yield. Again, sustainable yield is the amount of trees that loggers would be allowed to
cut, as mandated by the government. The value of sustainable yield is, supposedly, strictly
dependent on the on the amount of remaining forest cover. Therefore, there is no need for an
additional variable to connect this loop to the collective system. From the problem variable of
Forest Cover, the loop would directly extend to the sustainable yield. This, then, will be a direct
cause to the amount that can be cut, which would inevitably lead to the amount of trees that is
actually cut.

The projection of the problem variable across 5 year can be seen above, there are not
significant changes to the values of forest cover, therefore, it can be concluded that, as of the
current loops that are connected, the loop that considers sustainable yield as a direct cause would
remain inactive. This suggests that, one the last loop is attached, there could be other factors
pertaining to the sustainable yield that would lead to a significant change in the model.
 The last factor that was added to the existing stockflow is the perceived demand. This is
where most illegal cutting actions happen. With this, it should be expected that the graph of the
forest cover over 5 years will have a steeper negative slope. The variable linking the new
stockflow to the existing stockflow is the scarcity of wood and also the interest of loggers to cut.
The scarcity of wood is the ratio of current forest cover to the original forest cover. The other
factor, Interest of Loggers is based on the perceived demand. Ideally, loggers would want to
maximize profit, therefore the loggers will cut all the trees they need disregarding the sustainable
yield. The equation that are to be inputted in the loop are presented below:
(01) All State Goals=100
Units: # of Goals
(02) Conservation of Forests=quality if forest management*0.8
Units: %
(03) Cutting of trees=number of loggers who will cut trees*(Quality of forest
managment+plans to transform forests into infrastructure)
Units: Sqkm of trees
(04) Deforestation=(Forest Cover*Policy Strength)+Cutting of trees
Units: Sqkm of trees
(05) Developmental Stae Goals=0.3*Other state goals
Units: # of Goals
(06) Environmental Policies for Forest Management= INTEG (Policy Creation Rate-Policy
Removal Rate,15)
Units: of policies
(07) Environmental State Goals=30*(1+Policy Strength)
Units: Sqkm of trees
(08) FINAL TIME = 5
Units: Year
The final time for the simulation.

(09) Forest Cover= INTEG (Reforestation-Deforestation, 2.53e+06)

 Units: Sqkm of trees
(10) growth of trees= Quality of forest managment*0.2
Units: %
(11) INITIAL TIME = 0
Units: Year
The initial time for the simulation.
(12) Interest from Government= Environmental State Goals/All State Goals
Units: %
(13) interest of loggers to log=(perceived demand of wood-price index of wood)/perceived
demand of wood
Units: %
(14) number of loggers who will be allowed to cut trees=sustainable yield
Units: Sqkm of trees
(15) number of loggers who will cut trees=10000*(interest of loggers to log)+number of
loggers who will be allowed to cut trees
Units: Sqkm of trees
(16) Original Forest Cover=2.53e+06
Units: Sqkm of trees
(17) Other Policies=50+Environmental Policies for Forest Management
Units: # of policies
(18) Other state goals=RANDOM UNIFORM( 80 , 100 , 85 )
Units: # of policies
(19) perceived demand of wood=price index of wood*500000
Units:
(20) percent error=0.005
Units: %
(21) plans to transform forests into infrastructure=Developmental Stae Goals/100
Units: %
(22) planting rate=0.004
Units: %
(23) Policy Creation Rate=Interest from Government*3
Units: # of policies
(24) Policy Removal Rate=RANDOM UNIFORM(0,1,0)
Units: # of policies
(25) Policy Strength=Environmental Policies for Forest Management/Other Policies
Units: %
(26) price index of wood=
138.6*(1+SCARCITY OF WOOD)-Step(100,2)
Units: Index
(27) quality if forest management=number of loggers who will be allowed to cut trees/interest
of loggers to log
Units: %
(28) Quality of forest managment=Environmental State Goals/(Environmental State
Goals+Other state goals)
Units: %
(29) Reforestation=planting rate*Forest Cover*(1+Policy Strength)*growth of
trees+Conservation of Forests
Units: Sqkm of trees
(30) SAVEPER = TIME STEP
Units: Year [0,?]
The frequency with which output is stored.
(31) SCARCITY OF WOOD=(Forest Cover/Original Forest Cover)
Units: %
(32) sustainable yield= Forest Cover*(0.003+percent error)
Units: Sqkm of trees
(33) TIME STEP = 1
Units: Year [0,?]
 Given the graph of the new stockflow (blue) it could be seen that there slope went steeper
and had a larger decrease in forest cover by the end of 5 years. This confirms that the logger was
the factor that increases deforestation significantly.
 The reference mode is shown above. Looking at this and the behavior of the problem
variable generated by the final stock flow diagram, one could immediately see the similarity in
trend. Both graphs sport a negative slope. This suggests that, as far as trend in concerned, the book
and model agree. However, the rates of decrease are what differ. The simulated model shows to be
more aggressive in its decrease. This could be because of the inactiveness of the loop that
considers sustainable yield. This is a positive loop and should pull the values of forest cover up.
However, the more dominant loop, loop considering the loggers, is also connected to the
sustainable yield. As this loop is naturally a negative loop and as it has shown to be the more
dominant, the positive pull of the loop that considers sustainable yield as a direct cause was
neutralized. Again, all there's point put together result in the more aggressive downward behavior
of the modeled system.
5. Base run Analysis
 The book was not able to discuss the 4 main factors in numerical values. The equations are
only assumed and inferred. However, the equations still generated a trend that relatively resembles
the reference mode as given by the book. The graph showed a negative slope but steeper
compared to the reference mode as described by the book. By the end of the simulation timeline,
the percent difference was below 25%.

With regards to the book, it was not able to give a good analysis. The book was lacking in
terms of numerical values. The book was almost purely written output and did not describe the
problem through legitimate numbers or graphs. With this, the proponents had to infer some
scenarios and equations. Being able to obtain an accurate graph would have meant that the book
was able to provide complete major variables that were affecting the problem variable.
 The analysis done using the simulation model through Vensim was accurate. However
accuracy might not mean that the analysis was good. A way to check if the analysis done was
good is to do some extra research, at least for the reference mode only. With this, one will have 3
graphs to compare and contrast whether the model was good. True enough, researched values still
was a match to the simulation therefore the analysis done was good.

6. Model analysis

The first variable is a rate. It is the only rate out of the 3 chosen variables. The rate affects
the model behaviour significantly because it affects both reforestation and deforestation. For
example if the policy strength is 70% then it will decrease total cutting rate by 70% and decrease
reforestation by only 30%. The number will be favorable as long as it is above 50%. Once it goes
down 50%, for example 20%, then total cutting rate will decrease by only 20% and reforestation
will decrease greatly - 80%.

Plans to Transform Forests Into Infrastructure and Interest of Loggers to Log (Illegal Logging)
only affects the outflow of Forest Cover but both contribute large amounts in increasing cutting
rate when combined. The variables increase the deforestation rate way above the reforestation
rate. This causes the trend of the graph to have a negative slope. However, when contrasting the 2
variables it is definite that the Plans to Transform Forests Into Infrastructure is much higher than
the acceptable amount to be cut. This is because it is driven by the developmental needs of the
Asia-Pacific. Especially now that technology and industrialization are evolving really fast for
these countries.

There are only 3 level variables used in the stock flow diagram. Environmental State
Goals, Environmental Policies for Forest Management, and Forest Cover. The most important of
the 3 is the Forest Cover mainly because it is the variable that shows the problem. When it has a
negative slope then it basically means that forest cover is being lost through deforestation and
degradation. The 2 other levels is just basically the count of policies and state goals related to the
environment. It is critical to the model behavior because it acts as a strength ratio for both
reforestation and deforestation. When there are more Environmental State Goals and Policies over
other state goals and policies, then the implementation of tree growth and planting will be
reinforced and increased while cutting of trees will decrease.

Forest Cover (Increased by 100%)

Forest Cover (Decreased by 50%)
Environmental Policies for Forest Management (Increased by 100%)
Environmental Policies for Forest Management (Decreased by 50%)
 For the first level variable - Forest Cover, there was only a shift upward or downward
when the initial values were changed. All variables except rates shifted upwards when the initial
value was increased by 100% and the same variables shifted downward when the initial value was
halved. The rates and constants remained almost the same. The rates and constants did have an
increase when the initial value of forest cover was increased, however, the increase was very
minimal - only a very small fraction changed.

Environmental Policies for Forest Management had very minimal effect to the causal
variables when it was changed. This was because the initial values were very small to begin with.
Doubling or halving the value may not result to a very large change. However, seeing the minimal
changes it could be said that the reforestation rate increased and the deforestation rate decreased
when the initial value of the level variable was increased.

7. Test and scenario analysis

One external situation that could affect the system would be forest fires. Forest fires can
become widespread in a very short amount of time. This could also result to bruning a huge area
of trees. The larger it is, the harder it would be to pacify it. Looking at the system, the proponents
assume that, the sudden drop in forest cover, reforestation should increase exponentially. This is
because governments’ interest would lean towards environmental projects that would help
rehabilitate the forests. Also, as the value of forest cover drops, so would the value of sustainable
yield. The legal allowable cut would become smaller. However, as the sustainable yield loop was
seen to be inactive, then this should not pose as a source an increase in reforestation. But, as
governments’ interest had already increased, so will the quality of forest management. This should
parry the intent to log. as the govenments’ interest increases, so will reforestation.

\
 The result of the scenario can be seen in the figure above. it is evident that at year 2, where
the forest fire would be set, the forest cover dropped significantly. This is backed up the other
factors as reforestation would increase due to the increase in the quality of forest management at
this point and as deforestation would plummet after the surge due to the increase in the cutting of
trees. Comparing this to the base run.

Another scenario would be if a substitute for wood would be discovered. If this would
happen, then the demand and price of would would drop significantly. Not just in Southeast Asia
but globally as well. The sudden drop of price and demand should show away the interest of
loggers to log. This would then greatly cut the amount of trees being cut annually as, now, there
would be only one source of deforestation, namely infrastructure development.
Once again, the number that is to be considered at this point is the value of price. As
previously stated, this value will go down. resulting to a decrease in demand. This would
inevitably lead to a reduction in the amount of wood to cut. Seen in the graph below would be the
value of the price index of wood. At year 2, the step was created. This is the reason for the sudden
drop of the value. The of the drop was set to 100. Therefore, the price index was reduced by 100.
It is also evident that the perceived demand dropped as well, as this is what drives the demand.
 The value of the forest cover when the scenario of finding a replacement of wood occurs is
seen above. it is evident that this has lead to the amount of forest cover to increase greatly on the
second year and to slowly increase as the 5 year time span approaches the limit. Comparing it to
the original base run, a great improvement can be seen. The almost linear trend seen in the base
run was changed to a slowly increasing trend, after the two year point in the external scenario
graph. The graph would slow increase after the 2 year point as the reforestation would be
relatively high with the cutting of trees would be low, as per the decrease in the demand.
 8. Conclusions and recommendations

The model was an accurate representation of the problem. All variables (hidden variables)
might not have been exhausted but the major and critical ones as discussed by the book were used.
The model was able to end up at a similar line graph with the reference mode which implies that
the major variables were enough for the system to simulate the problem. This resulted to the graph
of the problem variable be relatively similar to that of the reference mode.
The book was generally accurate with the major factors that were affecting the loss of
forest cover given the graph of the simulation. Though, through the sensitivity analysis some
variables were not as critical as they seemed. So, in this aspect, the book might have failed. Also,
the author could have supplied more information regarding numerical values of the factors.

9. Learnings

A definite take away from the whole course was the use of simulation models such as
causal loops and stock flow diagrams. And to be able to make simulation models, there should be
some prerequisites needed to be learned such as, dynamic equations, rates, level variables, etc. All
these were learned through SYSDYN1 and LBYIEEH lectures. Now, these learnings were applied
in the cases and progress reports that were given. The cases were extra helpful. It served as
learning blocks to be able to apply it to more complex models for the progress reports. The
models were created with the help of vensim. Vensim was a great software for analysis of
simulation models. Through its functions, one is able to see how a system is affected by it’s causal
variables as well as indirect variables. It helps the users understand the system better

Another important learning while doing the paper was that some factors are not caused by
what we simply think causes it. While some scientific causes match those of our perceived causes,
it does not completely conclude the problem. Some problems can be caused by multiple factors
while some take may only need just one factor to create the mess. I was also noted that some
effects are either inversely or directly proportional depending on the situation and how the
problem was defined.

The proponents looked deeper into our problem to be able to identify the real direct
causes. We figured out that our problem variable had only 1 direct cause. So instead of discussing
the only direct cause we discussed the variables leading to the only direct cause. This approach
was done because there are no other arrows pointing to the problem variable except the direct
cause. After taking all points of conversation into consideration, it can be concluded that a
problem may seem simple but when you go a step further you can find and unlock more
information about the problem making more complex.

Creating a multi-causal structure for all possible direct causes and the approach of creating
a causal loop diagram for each direct cause and then eventually integrating them all together in
one big causal loop diagram was a success. In this manner we were able to look deeper into each
direct cause better. We were able to analyze how the feedback loops could be created for each
cause. It was also a good way to be able to see how each direct cause affect the problem variable
in an isolated view. It removes the tendency of connecting the direct causes to other variables
instead of the problem variable. Then when joining all the loops together, it was fairly easier
because after analyzing each direct cause we saw that there were common variables. Through
these common variables, the general causal loop diagram is created.

The main task for the final stock flow was to be able to link all the factors together. It
seemed easy at first because there were similar variables with some stock flow diagrams. Once the
first 2 factors were connected as one big stock flow diagram, the next task was to change the
equations. This was where the challenge arose. It was unnerving to alter the equations because it
may distort the current graph. This was true for the next stock flow diagrams. It became more
difficult as the stock flow diagram grew larger due to the increasing number of variables to
account. Adding the factors one by one was a good way to understand the factors. This is because
one can see the effects of each factor to the problem by the way it alters the line graph. For
example, if a new variable is added and the graph remains the same then the new variable could
have minimal effect to the problem. This could also mean that if one were to solve the problem
he/she should not waste time improving this factor. He/she should look at the factors that are
dominant and affects the problem variable significantly.