Raindance Weather

Winter 2019-20 Outlook

Albuquerque & NM Weather Focus

USA Weather Overview

The Big Question: A Low Solar El Nino?

SOURCES: NWS/NOAA/ESRL/CPC/NCDC, SILSO, JAMSTEC/SINTEX, Tropical Tidbits, JISAO, CMC,
BOM (MJO/SOI), Raindance Research, Raindance Models, Wikipedia, Xuru Regression software.
 Winter Driver Expectations
• Very Weak, El Nino Modoki, becoming basin wide in time
• Low Sunspots (nearing 0)
• El Nino after El Nino
• Winter after Dry Monsoon
• Warmer West/Cooler East - a Modoki El Nino
• Warm Atlantic (Nov-Apr AMO near +0.150)
• Warm NE Pacific (Nov-Apr PDO near +0.75)

Sunspots are proxies for changes in solar radiation. El Nino is the warming of the Tropical
Pacific. La Nina is the cooling of the Tropical Pacific. Neutral years are when neither El
Nino or La Nina conditions develop.

The Monsoon is a wind shift that brings heavy Summer rains to the SW. The N. Atlantic
(AMO) and N. Pacific (PDO) are expected to be in their warm phases which promote
specific storm tracks. Modoki El Ninos are warmest in the central Pacific relative to the
less warm east/west Pacific. Traditional strong El Ninos see very warm waters – close to
80F – by Peru.
Weather Bingo
 Winter Analog Approaches
• Similar Summer Weather Filtered by ENSO Conditions
(Nino 3.4)
– Best skill early
– Has correctly picked snowiest month in ABQ for 2013-14, 2014-15,
2015-16, 2016-17, and off by one day in 2018-19 (1/1/19 snow storm
prevented December from being the snowiest month).

• Ocean & Solar Conditions

– Blend of ONI, AMO, Solar, Modoki, ONIp (ONI prior winter), PDO,
Monsoon conditions.
– Best skill later in Winter & Spring
Key Factors in Winter
 51.5F is the Key Number for Snow
In winters with a mean high below 51.5F from 1931-32 to 2018-16,
historically Albuquerque has a 52% chance, 34 of 66 years, that snow will
top the long term average of 9.6” from October to May.
In winters with a mean high of 51.5F or above, there is historically a 9%
chance, 2 in 22 years, that snow in Albuquerque will top the long term
average of 9.6” from October to May.
The change in snowy season frequency at/above 51.5F and below 51.5F is
statistically significant – it is unlikely (p<0.01) to be a fluke or due to chance.
Data below is for 1931-32 to 2015-16 cold seasons only.
ABQ Snow “Jackpot” Odds
 Metro Snow by Elevation
All seasonal snow data for Albuquerque is based on the Sunport records, at
~5350 feet above sea level. By correlating seasonal snow data for the
Foothills (23 years) to the Sunport, we can see how higher elevation
impacts snow totals. By correlating seasonal snow data for the Valley (25
years) to the Sunport, we can see how lower elevation impacts snow totals.
El Nino Winters in Albuquerque
 El Nino Modoki in September I

Conditions in late September look like a Modoki El Nino by the Japanese definition.
In El Nino Modoki years, Box A is warm, with Box B and Box C both cold.
Warmth in Box A is slowly spreading east and filling in below the surface.
 El Nino Modoki in September II

Waters in the box, below the surface of Nino 3.4 have warmed as they
continue to move east. Cool water below Nino 4 is likely to expand with time
as the warmth moves east. Cool water below the Eastern Pacific should thin
over time allowing the Eastern Pacific to warm. The latest European Model
supports these positions.
 What Happens Next?

The European Model is shown. The October warm up was anticipated by the
model last month, and likely represents the beginning of El Nino conditions
through February or March (above the black line). My expectation is in yellow.
 El Nino Winters in Albuquerque

El Nino winters in Albuquerque are getting wetter by 0.035” precipitation per El Nino if the
image above is updated through the 2018-19 El Nino. Based on historical errors in the
wetting trend against observations by season, we can say with 96% certainty that winter
will see 0.94”-3.18” precipitation in Dec-Feb. The trend implies 2.06” precipitation, +/-1.12”.
Limits in El Nino Precipitation
 El Nino Snow in Albuquerque
El Ninos following a wet monsoon (>=4.3” rain June 16-Sept 30) are on average
snowier than El Ninos following a dry monsoon (<4.3”). We had a dry monsoon.
 Analog Years:
Years with Similar Conditions
 Summer El Nino Matches

• June, July, August monthly highs, filtered by El Nino, Neutral or La Nina years for
greatest similarity, produce strong snow estimates in Albuquerque.

• Closest El Nino matches to Summer 2019 are 1945, 1957, 1963, 1969, 1982, 1987
This blend implies 13.1” inches of snow, with around 6-7 inches falling in the
snowiest month of the cold season: February or March.

• These years tend to feature very low Monsoon rainfall, like 2019. Several of these
years feature unusually heavy early/late season snowfall, so that is something to
watch in November and April.

• Heavy March snow is less likely than in these years, as all had high solar activity
except for 1963-64. Heavy snow (3+ inches) in March has only happened one time
in a low solar year since 1931 in Albuquerque (March 1975).
 Summer El Nino Matches
• Similar NM Summer conditions for monthly high temperatures and
precipitation, and similar background ocean and solar conditions were
found by blending winters starting in 1953 (x2), 1983 (x2), 1992, 1995, 2009
(x3), 2018.
• These years followed low-solar El Nino winters in aggregate.
• These years had cold Junes in New Mexico in aggregate – increasingly
rare in recent years.
• These years turned very hot in August and September in New Mexico.
• These years feature weak monsoons in aggregate.
• These years have only a weakly positive PDO value.
• Despite the weak Monsoon overall, July was wetter than the composite,
which tends to favor cold or wet/snowy/cold Decembers in the Southwest.

• As a blend, these years feature a warm Western Tropical Pacific (Nino 4).
• But they are much colder in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (Nino 1.2/3)
 Summer 2019: Unusual Features
• Albuquerque did not hit 100F in June – this is an increasingly rare
occurrence.
• Albuquerque had a cold start to Summer that turned hot relative to the
time of year. August was nearly as hot as July, and hotter than June,
and it is typically colder than those months. This pattern has not
happened in a Summer since 2009.
• The 2019 Tropical Pacific, Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 in Jun-Aug,
was a near identical match to 1992. That year featured Hurricane
Andrew, a category five that approached Florida from the East like
Dorian did.
Ocean & Solar Similarities Map
 Winter Analogs: Oceans & Sun I
Ocean & Sun Analog I-II slides are Albuquerque specific. Slide III has other sites.

The ‘third table’ is my snow regression table - factors from the analogs that predict snow
well. Snow is expected to be around average for the October-May cold season.
 Winter Analogs: Oceans & Sun II
• Dry winter punctuated by a few big storms, near average highs and lows.
– 14 Days with a high of <=40F expected from Oct-May (analogs trend adjusted)
– 60 Days with a high of <=50F expected from Oct-May (analogs trend adjusted)
– 93 Days with a low of <=32F expected from Oct-May (analogs trend adjusted)

• The pattern looks volatile, with no strong warm or cold signal for any
month from October-May. Slightly above normal highs are generally
favored throughout the period.

• Coldest temperature of Oct-May? 14F (analog trend adjusted).

• December, March and April are most likely to see colder highs than in 2018-
19. October and May are most likely to see warmer higher than 2018-19. If a
cold month is to come, it would be most favored mid-Nov to mid-Dec.
Warmth is most favored later in April and into May.

• Oct-May nights at or below 32F were common in these analogs. But they
are becoming less common due to the Urban Heat Island effect and rapid
March warming. The forecast above adjusts for warming nights over time.
Winter Analogs: Oceans & Sun III
The data favor slightly above average
snowfall at higher elevation sites
throughout New Mexico.

Lower elevation sites like Albuquerque and

Roswell are generally favored for below
average snowfall.

The highest elevations, above 8,500 feet,

may see 50% above average snow totals.

Chama is forecast to see 108 inches of

snow with Red River coming in at 163
inches. Snow pack looks promising for the
winter, particularly with water supply still
fairly healthy state wide from last winter.
 Oceans & Sun Composite Map

Widespread average-heavy snow is expected: leading to a cold winter for the US.
An extended warm spell mid-winter is expected to prevent an outrageously cold winter.
 Ocean & Solar High Temp Anomalies

Cold in December is expected to weaken through Jan-Feb. December will be

1-3F warmer than depicted in the East with Nino 4 warmer than my analogs.
Red Outline = Enhanced Snow
Final Forecast
 Hand Drawn Winter Forecast Map I

Heavy early snow is expected in the Plains. This allows very cold air to develop
and pour to the center of the country. A big winter thaw is expected for a month
mid-winter, likely mid-January to mid-February. The Eastern 1/3 of the US will
end up warmer if Nino 4 doesn’t cool by December, as subsurface data implies.
 Hand Drawn Winter Forecast Map II

Powerful storms are expected to occasionally interact with abundant cold air.
The jet stream is expected to generally follow two predominant curves that shift
North/South as hours of daylight change. There is potential for 1-3 extremely
powerful storms to appear in November and March.
 July-June Data for Snow Map

Snow percentages of average are based on the 60 years ending June 2010.
 Albuquerque Storm Timing
• Seven time frames show up as “snow windows” for Albuquerque in the analogs.
– Nov 18-21
– Dec 2-5
– Dec 15-19
– Dec 25-Jan 1
– Jan 12-16
– Feb 1-4
– Mar 18-20

• The blend of the analogs implies nine days with measurable snow.
• November 19, 20, 21 show up as snowy days in two analog years.
• December 5 shows up in two analog years.
• January 1 and January 13 each show up in two analog years.
• The analog blend has the wettest day from Nov-Apr at about 0.39” – which means
snowfall is unlikely to top 5-6 inches on any single day, barring an extremely cold
storm.
• Only eight days from November to April are forecast to see at least 0.10” of
precipitation.
 Albuquerque Snow Ratios
• My forecast calls for 5.5 inches of snow in Dec-Feb in Albuquerque. At
a 13:1 snow ratio, this is 0.39” of liquid equivalent precipitation falling
as snow. This means 30-35% of the precipitation to fall in winter is
expected to be snow – down from 48% last year.
• There is an all or nothing signal for heavy snow in April and
November.
• Most snow will likely fall in one or two very powerful storms, with
several storms bringing a coating to two inches.
• Albuquerque is long overdue for a snowy November, March or April.
None of these months have seen even two inches of snow since 2005.
• The data in the analogs favors multiple months seeing at least one
inch of snow.
 Albuquerque Forecast Context I

Fall and Spring look much warmer than in 2018-19. Winter will be somewhat
warmer too, but may feature a colder December. November is forecast to be
much wetter than last year, with all other months forecast as dry or drier than
last year.

October & May had near record cold highs in 2018-19, and will be much
warmer in 2019-20.
 Albuquerque Forecast Context II
• Most snow in March expected since 2012. This assumes heavy rains in
October verify as currently depicted. Heavy rain in October and a cold
June both favor cold stormy Marches.
• Most snow in November since 1996 expected. The local Monsoon and
Summer temperature pattern bore some resemblance to a blend of 1992,
1953, 1953, which featured several days of November snow.
• Coldest March high expected since 2010.
• Winter high is expected to be 1.4F warmer than 2018-19.
• Only 93 lows of 32F or less are expected from October-May, just above
the 1989-90 to 2018-19 average of 92, and below 2018-19, which had 97.
• Despite the forecast for lower snow overall than 2018-19, more days with
accumulating snow are forecast. Nine days with accumulating snow
would be the most for Albuquerque since the 2015-16 cold season (10).
 Albuquerque Forecast Confidence

The clearest warm signal is for a warmer October & May than last year.
 Forecast Confidence II

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of trade winds in the tropics,
was -13 in September 2019 – an El Nino reading. Long-term, this is a cold
signal for New Mexico in December and a warm signal for the East. The maps
above are correlations. Green means a negative SOI yields negative (cold)
temps, while blue means a negative SOI yields positive (warm) temps.
 Forecast Confidence III

Nino 4, the waters in the Western Tropical Pacific, were near record warm in
September (29.3C). The waters below Nino 4 are also warmer than average. A
warm Nino 4 is likely to persist into December. That favors a warm East / cold
Southwest pattern for December. This is similar to the SOI map.
 Forecast Confidence IV
• The MJO, a pulse of powerful thunderstorms in the tropical pacific, is in
the same place as 2018, in early October, and not far off from 1992. My
suspicion is that the MJO is also close to 1953, even though the data
does not go back that far.
• Several analogs feature similar late Summer weather in the US to 2019 –
1983, 1953, 1995, and 2018.
• The analog package selected in 2018-19 accurately captured the NAO
tendency to be positive each month. The package selected this year has
a near-average month, a positive month, and a negative month for the
NAO. This is consistent with the observed volatility in Spring & Summer
that tends to persist into winter.
• At the solar minimum, the NAO is favored negative, and we are at the
minimum. The NAO is a key player in determining where cold does or
does not go. If the NAO goes negative in January-April, my forecast will
be too warm. A negative NAO strongly favors cold Marches in the SW.
• More generally, when the SOI is below -4 in September, you can
eliminate a warm/dry winter for the Southwest. Warm OR Dry is
possible, but both have never occurred after a big –SOI September.
 Forecast Confidence V
• In 2018-19, Dec-Jan matched the October analogs. Then the SOI spiked to +9
(a La Nina trade wind orientation) in Dec 2018 which had never happened in an
El Nino before. In Dec 2017, the SOI was -3. When La Ninas follow El Ninos, the
NW ¼ of the US tends to become cold – that happened in February, and the
East warmed. This ruined the winter forecast as the opposite pattern (El Nino
following a La Nina) was expected in February, as in Dec-Jan. The unexpected
reversal was legendary: Billings, Montana had its coldest month since February
1936 and ended up 5F or so below average for the winter after a warm Dec-Jan.
 Forecast Confidence VI
• Last year, the confidence slide was mostly correct. The Dec-Feb high was
5.6F colder than 2017-18. Winter was three times wetter, with over nine
inches more snow and close to 20 more cold lows of 32F or less.
 Forecast Confidence VII
• Last year, the snowfall map was fairly strong. A severe winter was anticipated
for much of the Plains/West. The strongest low on record in NM, CO and KS in
March produced heavy snow with hurricane force winds in the Plains/Rockies.
The NE corridor had ice/slop with below average snow. NM had its snowiest ski
season since 1997-98 as the Rockies saw record ski visitation and snow pack.
 Forecast Confidence VIII
• Composites exist to make US regions cold in winter. High PDO values
make the SE cold. El Nino Modokis with high solar make the NE quarter
cold. The NW is cold in La Nina years following El Ninos. The SW is cold
in El Nino years following La Ninas. None of these patterns exist for 2019.
• Pieces of the winter should move to the cold composites though as the
PDO is fairly high (cold SE), with a positive SOI in Dec 2018 to a (likely)
negative SOI in Dec 2019 favoring a cold SW later in winter or March. The
Pacific is currently in an Modoki El Nino look (cold NE), and ocean
temperatures in Nino 3.4 will be colder than in 2018-19 (cold NW).
• If all four regions can be favored for cold at times, no extreme cold is
likely anywhere, but the edges of the four regions should be warmest
(Northern New England/Great Lakes, S. California/AZ, Florida,
Washington)
 Forecast Confidence IX
• For June-September 2019, Nino 3.4 is a near identical match to 1992,
the wettest winter on record in Albuquerque by a country mile.
• The QBO, winds high above the Earth that reverse semi-regularly, are
behaving similarly to 1995.
• Extreme heat in the US in September east of the West Coast, as in
September 2019, looks like a blend of 1953 and 2018.
• Winters that follow El Ninos tend to be wet throughout the Western
US, even if the winter becomes a La Nina.
• Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 July-September observations match the analogs,
with Nino 4 and Nino 1.2 moving closer to the analog value through
the time frame.
• The October MJO is similar to 1994, 2012, and 2018 which were volatile
winters that occasionally saw very cold air reach the Southwest US
from October-May.
• Extremely powerful storms (Dorian, the 10/10 low over the NW, among
others) are showing up, as in 1992 and other analog years. These
should press south as we approach the winter solstice – especially if
blocking continues or re-develops.
 Forecast Confidence X
• October’s temperature profile currently looks like a more extreme
version of the October composite from the analog package for winter.
 Final Thoughts/Concerns
• June was cold in NM in 2019. That is increasingly rare, and favors cold
winters about 60% of the time back to 1931. However, winters after El Ninos
since 1931 have not been cold in the SW generally (1983, 1987, 1995, 1998,
2005, 2007, 2010, 2016) with a couple exceptions (1992, 2003) that do bear
resemblance to this year (1992 for Nino 3.4, and 2003 for the incredible
European heat wave like 2019). With enough snow or moisture there is
some potential for a cold winter in the SW US.

• The El Nino may gradually transition from an El Nino Modoki to an East

based event late in winter as cold water thins by Peru while warm water
thins toward the West. This would favor a much wetter winter than I have
depicted for New Mexico.

• When Category 4-5 hurricanes appear in the Atlantic near the US in late
Summer/early Fall, the US tends to see extremely powerful storms in the
time frame of the winter-spring transition, roughly mid-February to mid-
April. The record setting Kansas low (968 mb!) in March 2019 after
Hurricane Michael hit the Gulf Coast in October 2019 is an example of this.

• Mid-Feb to Mid-Mar may become cold for a while in the Southwest if the SOI
in December is very negative. The move from a –SOI in December 2017 to a
very +SOI in December 2018 is part of what lead to a very cold NW in
February 2019 despite a healthy El Nino. A move from a very +SOI in Dec
2018 to a –SOI in Dec 2019 might put a lot of cold air in the SW US.