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Green Book 2019


Changing Global Scenario and

Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
Sardar Masood Khan

The Hybrid Challenge:

Whose Problem is it anyway?
Dr Mohammad Iftikhar Zaidi
Professor Caroline Kennedy-Pipe

Re-appraisal of the Principles of

War and their Relationship with
Tenets of Military Strategy
Lieutenant General Raza Muhammad Khan,
HI (M) (Retired)

Tackling Terrorism: Pernicious

Implications of Poor Policing
Dr Muhammad Shoaib Suddle

Lawfare as an Instrument of
Foreign Policy
Barrister Ahmer Bilal Soofi

An Analysis of Pakistan’s
Counter-Insurgency Potentials
against Non-State Actors:
Case Study of ISIS
Ms Sidra Jamil Bajwa

Administration of Swat Handed Back to Civil Authorities General Headquarters
after 11 Years Rawalpindi
Pakistan Army Green Book
A Research Journal of Pakistan Army, recognised by the
Higher Education Commission of Pakistan

The contents of this book are writers’ personal views.
The statements, facts and opinions by the authors in
the Green Book do not imply the official policy of the
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Note from the Patron-in-Chief

Chief of Army Staff

The current stream of geo politics is extremely volatile and the strategic environment
is changing at a pace, not witnessed hither-to-fore. Challenges oscillate along a wide
spectrum ranging from conventional to the Hybrid /Grey Hybrid Zones, warranting well
considered and adroit responses at each level of the strategic paradigm. Notwithstanding
the upward trajectory, Pakistan still has some very peculiar challenges to confront. The
5th Generation Warfare that we are currently subjected to, demands a ‘Whole of the
Nation’ approach with inputs from all Elements of National Power. In the current edition
of Pakistan Army Green Book, some of our leading scholars and strategic practitioners
have touched upon most of the critical issues faced by the country and have proffered
their insightful analysis, opinions and viable recommendations, worth reading.
Pakistan Army Green Book has evolved at fast pace in the last few years and has
improved substantially in the quality of contents and relevance. The credit goes to its
contributing authors, the editorial team and the advisory board. I wish them well in their
future endeavours.

Green Book 2019 i


PATRON Note from the Editor-in-Chief

Green Book, the flagship publication of Pakistan Army, offers
intellectual discourse on diverse range of subjects of significance
by eminent research scholars, think tanks and practitioners.
The current edition sheds light on Hybrid, Cyber and Lawfare
Challenges besides other contemporary issues. We are highly
indebted to our esteemed authors for their quality contributions.
Please feel free to exchange your ideas and opinion.

Lieutenant General Sher Afgun, HI (M)

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Changing Global Pakistan and
Scenario and the Shifting
Pakistan’s Foreign Configuration of
Policy Geo-Politics
Sardar Masood Khan Salman Bashir

01 50
The Hybrid
Challenge: Whose
Problem is it
Major General Fida Hussain Malik, HI (M) anyway?
EDITORS Dr Mohammad
Iftikhar Zaidi &
Brigadier Muhammad Farooq Professor

Colonel Saif Ullah Kennedy-Pipe
Lieutenant Colonel Ahmed Bilal Usmani

Re-appraisal of the
Principles of War &
ADVISORY BOARD their Relationship
Lieutenant General Naeem Khalid Lodhi, with Tenets of
Hl (M) (Retired) Military Strategy Impact of CPEC on Pakistan in
Lieutenant General Raza
Brigadier Dr Naeem Haider, SI (M) Muhammad Khan, HI (M) Social, Demographic, Economic
Dr Zafar Iqbal Cheema
(Retired) and Legal Domains
President and Executive Director of
Strategic Vision Institute,
Islamabad, Pakistan
30 Brigadier Kamal Azfar &
Lieutenant Colonel Wasif Mahmood 62
Dr Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema Lawfare as an Strategic
Dean FCS, National Defence University
Islamabad, Pakistan
Instrument of Transformation
Foreign Policy of the Pakistan
Dr Zulfqar Khan
Head of Department, Strategic Studies
Barrister Ahmer Bilal Soofi Economy through
National Defence University,
Islamabad, Pakistan
Special Economic
Zones: A Pragmatic
Dr Rizwana Karim Abbasi Approach
National Defence University,
Islamabad, Pakistan 43 Dr Zafar
Mahmood 78
Dr Zafar Khan
National Defence University,
Islamabad, Pakistan

Dr Mohammad Iftikhar Zaidi

Cranfield University, UK

Professor Caroline Kennedy-Pipe

University of Loughborough, UK

Dr Peter Caddick Adams

Cranfield University, UK

China: Economic Bulwark Cybersecurity: An

Against Terrorism? Lesson Essential Element of
for others National Security
Imtiaz Gul Brigadier Dr Abdul Rauf,
Brigadier Dr Ashraf Masood (Retired),
Ms Narmeen Shafqat

91 150
An Analysis of Pakistan’s National Response to
Counter-Insurgency Cyber Threats
Potentials against Brigadier Dr Tughral Yamin (Retired)
Non-State Actors:
Case Study of ISIS

Ms Sidra Jamil Bajwa

Tackling Terrorism: Mineral Wealth of
Pernicious Implications of Pakistan
Poor Policing Dr Samar Mubarakmand, NI, HI, SI
Dr Muhammad Shoaib Suddle

114 177
Growing Strategic
Coercion Against Pakistan:
Challenges & Response
Brigadier Sheikh Ghulam Jilani

Climate Change as
a National Security
Imperative for Pakistan
Shafqat Kakakhel
The Last Post: Major General Sana Ullah Khan, T Bt
(Shaheed) - A Soldiers’ General, Loving
138 Father & an Affectionate Husband 190

Green Book 2019 1



Honourable President Azad Jammu & Kashmir Sardar Masood Khan

is an established diplomat and has served on several important
assignments during his esteemed career. He is an ardent campaigner
for the rights of the people of Jammu and Kashmir

The regional and international challenges resulted in Pakistan’s alliance and reliance on the US and the
Western World. Consequently, Pakistan joined the US sponsored pacts i.e. SEATO and CENTO in 1954 and
1955 respectively. In 1960s. Pakistan’s relations with China were developed border agreement was signed
between the two countries in 1963 and during Indo-Pak War of 1965 China supported Pakistan on all stages.
In 1970s. Pakistan’s foreign policy saw the new dimensions in wake of separation of East Pakistan and
the Afghan war in 1979. These developments influenced Pakistan greatly and brought Pakistan towards
US and the Western World. On the other hand, cordial and friendly relations were also developed with
the Muslim World, especially the Arabs and China. With present rapidly changing global scenario where
power is diffusing, there is a need to craft Pakistan’s foreign policy intelligently and diligently.

Keywords: Foreign Policy, Multi Polarity, BRI, New World Order, Changing Global Scenario

Green Book 2019 1


he world’s geopolitics is passing through
a period of historical transformation. America’s exceptionalism is being
The World Order led by the West since challenged by the emergent powers and
the end of the Cold War is under severe by champions of global connectivity who
stress because of a number of factors.
Questions are being raised about advocate propagation and adherence to
the United States’ overall moral and political the rule of law at the international level
leadership of the globe. America’s exceptionalism
is being challenged by the emerging powers and
by champions of global connectivity who advocate
propagation and adherence to the rule of law at the every country for themselves”) have been pedalled.
international level. The rise of ethnic nationalism One theory has been expounded by the Chinese
and centrifugal forces in West (Europe) are seen leadership advocating cooperation rather than
as indications of a period of uncertainty. Russia is confrontation between the existing power, the
assertive vis-a-vis the West; and a Cold War between US, and the emerging power, China, by avoiding
the US and China, driven by perceived bipolarity, is the so-called Thucydides Trap.2 China asserts the
unfolding. The Arab Spring has paused but not died transnational Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), of
down. The Middle East and many regions of Africa which the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is an
are being consumed by civil wars and intra-regional essential part, is designed to connect nations, not
warfare. Latin America seems to be relatively calm. divide them. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue
The Asia-Pacific and the Indian Ocean Region, (commonly known as the Quad) comprising the
though prospering economically, are being primed US, Japan, Australia and India do not agree; they
as a platform for great power contest. contend that the BRI process is disruptive. Disruptive
to the existing World Order? The Former US Defence
Changing Global Scenario Secretary James Mattis has questioned the monopoly
of one country – China – over trade routes.
The United States will continue to remain
a pre-eminent power or, as former Secretary of
State Madeleine Albright said, an ‘indispensable
nation’ in the World Order because it remains a
global leader in innovation, intellect, science and
technology, communications, and industry. But
other nations are emulating and catching up and
narrowing the gap with the US.

James Norman Mattis - United States’

Former Secretary of Defence

China is, cumulatively, planning to invest

US $ 1 trillion in energy, infrastructure and
industrial projects, under the framework of the

From Washington, the world will continue to

get contradictory signals of America First implying
isolation and withdrawal; and assertion of Today, the World Order does not
American leadership in regard to global decision- have a singular doctrine. Broadly
making. In the meantime, China’s meteoric rise will speaking, theories about G-2 (the
continue and will keep on altering the global and
regional power relations. world to be co-managed by the US and
Today, the World Order does not have a China), multipolarity, and G-Zero (a
singular doctrine. Broadly speaking, theories
about G-2 (the world to be co-managed by the US
world of every country for themselves)
and China), multi polarity and G-Zero1 (“a world of have been pedalled

2 Green Book 2019






Americas Europe & Pacific Americas Europe, Middle Asia Americas Europe & Africa Middle East Asia
Middle East East & Africa CIS

Canada Austria Australia Brazil Czech Republic China Argentina Croatia Kenya Bahrain Bangladesh
United States Belgium Hong Kong Chile Egypt India Estonia Mauritius Jordan Sri Lanka
Denmark Japan Colombia Greece Indonesia Lithuania Morocco Kuwait Vietnam
Finland New Zealand Mexico Hungary Korea Kazakhstan Nigeria Lebanon
France Singapore Peru Poland Malaysia Romania Tunisia Oman
Germany Qatar Pakistan Serbia WAEMU2
Ireland Russia Philippines Slovenia
Israel South Africa Taiwan
Italy Turkey Thailand
Netherlands United Arab
Norway Emirates
Switzerland Saudi Arabia Jamaica Bosnia Botswana Palestine
United Panama3 Herzegovina Ghana
Kingdom Trinidad & Bulgaria Zimbabwe
Tobago Ukraine

BRI, supported by some 68 countries in three project a positive image among nations. Military
continents – Asia, Africa and Europe. Despite all competition, in both strategic and conventional
the complementarities between the US and China, realms, will sharpen and accelerate. An arms’ race
their relationship is now rocked by mutually between China and the US has already started. The
damaging tariff wars. maintenance of continued equilibrium in state
In this emerging confrontation between the relations will depend on the viability and success
architects of the post-World War II World Order and of economic models of the leading nations. In this
its challengers, the next five to ten years are crucial. new phase, there would be massive redistribution
There are broadly three possibilities of what may of wealth within and among nations, with billions
happen. of people climbing up the prosperity ladder; and
First, the West and its allies try to maintain there would be demand and acceptance of more
the status quo by bolstering the dominance of responsive and accountable governance, while
capitalism and liberal democracies around the democracy, in various forms, will sweep the globe.
globe through internal reforms, better economic One common threat to the global community,
performance, enhancement in global military besides wars and development of weapons of mass
capabilities and overcoming their family feuds. destruction, will be climate change, which will
Second, China, Russia and other major powers require a universal approach.
succeed in altering the global strategic, military and
economic order in which the existing and emerging
nations coexist under a new code of conduct and
new terms of reference, thus creating a genuinely
multipolar world. Third, the first two scenarios do
not materialise and the world, like in the first half of
the twentieth century, is engulfed by wars, conflicts
and violence on the regional and global scales. The
third scenario seems most improbable because
global citizens and even national governments will
be averse to world wars and global strife because
of their devastating effects on lifestyles, economic The UN will struggle with regards to hard core
growth and prospects for human development. strategic, political and economic issues, because
Equipped with nuclear weapons, countries would of real politik and the interests of existing and
know that conflict beyond a certain limit will be emerging powers. However, it would be allowed
suicidal. to play a leading role on sustainable economic
The currency for survival, security and development and human rights, though with
deterrence, will be hard power, while soft certain limitations imposed by major powers. As
power would be used to gain influence and far as peace and security are concerned, powerful

Green Book 2019 3


‘‘ Thirty seven countries, including

Pakistan, have been listed amongst
If one looks at the history of the past 150 years,
the world has moved from the Concert of Europe
to the League of Nations to the United Nations to
emerging economies which will compete bipolarity to multi-polarity. The next phase could
for wealth and markets and will claim a be one of genuine multilateralism, though still
dominated by big power interests, with the UN
major chunk of global wealth entrusted to play a larger role on global commons,
environment, non-proliferation and human
nations will continue to exert their diplomatic Pakistan’s Foreign Policy
authority and use military instruments in their
spheres of influence and areas of strategic interest. Foreign policy, in practice, is a product of a
Matters of peace and security of lesser importance Whole-of-Government, or to be even more precise,
for global players, such as in Africa, will be left to a Whole of State endeavour. All ministries and
the UN in regard to peacemaking, peacekeeping divisions dealing with financial, economic and
and peace-building. trade matters, defence and security, intelligence,
energy, industry, agriculture, environment and
Economics will play a key role in shaping the
culture must participate in the formulation of
future World Order, generating and redistributing
foreign policy and its execution. For this kind of
wealth, and determining power configurations. In
policy making, elaborate mechanisms should be in
2018, the size of the nominal global GDP is roughly
place in order to respond to emerging and complex
$ 87.6 trillion (or $ 135 trillion by power purchasing
challenges collectively and inclusively. The silo
parity) and is poised to grow rapidly in the years to
mentality spells disaster; while synergy amongst
come. Thirty seven countries, including Pakistan,3
all actors and stakeholders produces better results
have been listed amongst emerging economies
in both pushing the national agenda and course
which will compete for wealth and markets and
correction. Above all, there should be strong
will claim a major chunk of global wealth. The
political leadership by the Prime Minister keeping
performance of these economies will hinge on
in view the global trends and national interests.
development and goods and services’ sectors,
strong domestic economies, demand for products
and services from the developed countries, stable
currency, growth and availability of commodities
and agricultural produce, growing per capita
income, domestic and foreign capital investment,
and mechanisms to lower governments’ debts.
An interface of new technologies and the ongoing
economic revolution will transform our individual
and collective lives, and relations among nations.
Nations, even those inimical to each other, will become
interdependent in many spheres. New technologies,
such as artificial intelligence, robotics, 3D and 4D
printing, biotechnology, lethal autonomous weapons’
systems, and compact, miniaturised batteries, will
redefine the ways in which we will transact, run
enterprises, get education, provide health facilities, The initial contours of Pakistan’s foreign policy
drive, work, make war and peace, and sustain a post- were defined during the Cold War period. Some of
modern civilisation. Those who will lag behind in our statements and strategies still date back to
acquiring these new technologies and incorporating that era. The world has moved on and is moving
them in their education systems and economies will on. Pakistan’s foreign policy makers continue to
be left behind. make the necessary adjustments to the changing
It goes without saying that nations, that have times. While adhering to our national postulates,
internal stability and political continuity, will pragmatism and realism should be injected into the
show more promise and resilience in fighting off system for economic gains and transactions for the
volatilities in the global strategic and economic nation.
environment. High levels of tolerance, respect The US is not happy with Pakistan’s strong
for pluralism and diversity and harmony will partnership with China, especially in the context of
contribute to peace and economic development the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and certain
within and among nations. quarters within may present it as a zero-sum game,

4 Green Book 2019


reminiscent of George W. Bush’ “You’re either with A full rapprochement with India will not be
us, or against us”. But Pakistan and the US have possible without a lasting resolution of the Kashmir
been longstanding allies. The periodic rupture or dispute in accordance with the principles of self-
volatility in Pak-US relations need not be hyped determination and wishes of the Kashmiri people.
and considered a permanent feature. There are India, in contravention to universally recognised
many ways to repair strained relations. principles, is adamant that it would have no such
One must remember that China and the US, conversation on Kashmir because it has already
despite their sharp rivalry, maintain channels declared Jammu and Kashmir its integral part.
and forums open for bilateral strategic and Intermittent cycles of bilateral talks in the past
economic dialogue, because isolationism is not have yielded no results.
a possibility in this connected world. Doors must
remain open for Pakistan in the US to benefit from
modern technologies, education, commerce, and
entrepreneurship, while Pakistan further cements
its ties with China. The process of exploring
new avenues of cooperation with Russia is
important for both countries, as well as the region.
Growing ties with Russia will add on regional
security environment and strengthen Pakistan’s
manufacturing and trading sectors; whereas the
primary purpose of engagement with the European
Union, the Gulf Region and East Asia should be
investment and trade. Human Rights’ violations in Indian Occupied Kashmir

Bilateral engagement with India, even though

cosmetic in effect, shrinks space for Kashmir
advocacy in the international community and
to the international human rights’ movement,
because during the talks they believe that India
and Pakistan themselves are sorting out the
issues relating to Kashmir and human rights.
Meanwhile Kashmiris continue to be killed,
maimed, incarceratedW and tortured on a massive
scale by Indian armed forces. Pakistan’s bilateral
dialogue with India on Kashmir and other matters,
cannot be in isolation and cannot obviate Pakistan
and the Kashmiris to credibly raise the issues of
self-determination and human rights in the UN
forums and various parliaments – The European
Parliament, The British Parliament, The US
Congress, for instance, – and global civil society
Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s dictum, that influence policy making.
“Hide your strength, bide your time”, is also
good advice for Pakistan too; but a prerequisite
for the application of this adage is that Pakistan,
while building its strength, and avoiding strategic
entanglements that dissipate and squander its
energies, also does not allow any encroachment on
its sovereignty.

‘‘ India, in contravention to universally

recognised principles, is adamant that Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi
it would have no such conversation on during his meeting with United Nations Secretary
Kashmir because it has already declared
‘‘ General Antonio Guterres stressed on the need
for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute.
Jammu and Kashmir its integral part (September 2018)

Green Book 2019 5


Pakistan is on the right track by continuing to a discriminatory hierarchy. Despite this waiver and
invest in the efforts for peace and reconciliation in resolute efforts by US’ diplomats, India could not
Afghanistan and enlisting regional stakeholders. enter into the NSG as a member.
It, obviously, cannot do it alone, as it needs the Ten years later, in 2018, the US announced
support of Afghan Government, Taliban, US and another waiver for India in the form of the Strategic
China. Courtney Cooper and Samir Kumar, in a blog Trade Authorisation Tier-I License Exemption,
post4on the Council on Foreign Relations website, which enables India to acquire sensitive
talk about the need for, what they call, overcoming technology, without Congressional oversight or
the so-called prisoner’s dilemma. They write: “The approval, and paves the way for the establishment
prisoner’s dilemma is a fundamental example in of the US’ high-tech industry in India (followed by
game theory where rational actors (in this case, the the French and Russian enterprises).
United States, the Afghan government and polity,
the Taliban, Pakistan, and regional actors) fail to
cooperate even if they would benefit from doing so.
In this example, each actor would benefit from a
peaceful outcome in Afghanistan but may perceive
unacceptable short-term costs associated with that
What is little appreciated is that Pakistan has
borne the brunt of the war in Afghanistan and its
spillover but its initiatives to jumpstart an Afghan
peace process have been repeatedly thwarted
for various reasons. This vicious cycle should be
broken by developing a strategy that would address
the concerns of other players, while protecting
Pakistan’s vital interests.
It is evident that against the backdrop of the
changing global scenarios, as outlined above,
Pakistani foreign policy’s two main priorities are
national security and economic development.
National security entails a stable political The irony is that such waivers by powerful NSG
system, national unity and conditions for the members, which do not strictly conform to the NSG
entire population to move ahead. In addition, rules, are not in line with international obligations.
Pakistan needs to work for pursuit of peace through While Pakistan must have all rights to
preparedness for war. It is here that the best tools legitimate nuclear trade, there is a large coalition
of foreign policy will be used to enhance national of NSG members, all NPT states, who want a just,
power. criteria-based formula for entry of new members
Technologically, Pakistan has done well in into the NSG.
developing conventional and strategic deterrence. Since 1947, Pakistani diplomats have been
The diplomatic pincer of foreign policy has traditionally focusing on narrowly defined political
successfully ensured that Pakistan, as a nuclear issues, though in relatively bigger missions,
weapon state, is part of the international discourse economic and commercial counsellors and attachés
on nuclear diplomacy. However, in 2008, the are appointed. There is a need to focus on economic
Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), with the active diplomacy with more energy. While the external
backing of the US, gave a waiver to India, a non- economic relations are entrusted to the Economic
NPT nuclear state like Pakistan, from its rules Affairs Division and international financial
regulating civilian and nuclear trade, thus creating matters to the Finance Ministry, Ambassadors
and diplomatic missions are expected to achieve
goals on investment and trade. Besides, traders,

investors and entrepreneurs are not fully involved
It is evident that against the backdrop or integrated into the exercise. Despite these
systemic handicaps, Pakistani mission do adopt a
of the changing global scenarios, proactive approach and try to expand investment
Pakistani foreign policy’s two main opportunities for Pakistan and promote Pakistani
priorities are national security and exports. To get best results, continuous review and
empowerment is supported for leading economic
economic development diplomacy and producing tangible results.

6 Green Book 2019


The CPEC is under fire from friend and foe alike.
Pakistan’s youth bulge and broad This is partly because of a failure in communication.
demographic trends bode well for fast The CPEC is being painted by vested interests as
GDP growth, but woefully low investment part of China’s ‘debt-trap diplomacy’. Pakistan
should confidently and authoritatively convey to
in human capital remains a weakness
which must be redressed to realise
‘‘ all interested interlocutors all over the world that
the credit extended to it for the mega-project is on
Pakistan’s full economic potential favourable rates and conditions and that Pakistan
would be able to pay it back. Besides, the CPEC is
a catalyst for making Pakistan a regional trade and
investment hub; it is not an end itself.
There is also the fact that in order to promote One should also rightly exude confidence that
exports there should be exportable surpluses Pakistan would remain solvent in the transitional
in sufficient quantities; and that requires period and is fast becoming a success story. This,
development of robust manufacturing, services in turn, will build confidence of foreign investors
and commodities’ sectors. Pakistan needs to be to enter into Pakistani market and supply chains.
optimally represented at the global financial, To make Pakistan’s foreign policy effective,
economic and trade forums and conferences. Sure, a further effective strategy must be developed to
Pakistan should be selective in choosing where to tap the full potential of approximately 9 million
show up, but it must be present where decisions strong Diaspora Communities. Government should
are being made which impact Pakistan’s economy conceive modules for win-win partnerships,
and integrate Pakistan into regional and global whereby resourceful community members make
economies. profitable investments in Pakistan and project
In the new phase, Pakistan should go global Pakistan’s interests in their adopted countries.
and think big. Pakistan’s youth bulge and broad This is the model that has been followed by China,
demographic trends bode well for fast GDP growth, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, and many
but woefully low investment in human capital other emerging nations. The trend has started in
remains a weakness which must be redressed to Pakistan but it is at an incipient level; it needs to be
realise Pakistan’s full economic potential. expanded to a critical scale.
Pakistan’s foreign policy will produce better
results if it is supported by positive and supportive
narratives churned out by the media, think tanks,
and academic institutions. This has been a weak
area so far but with the growing educated middle
class, presence of talented Pakistanis all around
the world, who understand the dynamics of
effective communication, Pakistan should be able
to bridge this gap.
Allocation of resources and institutional
support are a must for energising the Diaspora
community and sharpening communication skill
sets. Mere aspirational hectoring will not lure these
Water diplomacy is now recognised as a
For economic diplomacy to succeed, Pakistan distinct discipline and is practiced to prevent
should diversify its export base, reduce reliance and resolve water conflicts. It requires that water
on textiles and raw materials, and develop high- diplomats and negotiators have special skills and
end manufacturing, digital industry and services’ technical expertise while acting as representatives
sectors. of upper or lower riparian states, as well as of

‘‘ To make Pakistan’s foreign policy effective, a further effective strategy must

be developed to tap the full potential of approximately 9 million strong Diaspora
Communities. Government should conceive modules for win-win partnerships, whereby
resourceful community members make profitable investments in Pakistan and project
Pakistan’s interests in their adopted countries

Green Book 2019 7


other stakeholders who speak for the interests
of agricultural, industrial, energy, health and For economic diplomacy to succeed,
environmental constituencies. Pakistan should diversify its export
base, reduce reliance on textiles and
raw materials, and develop high-end
manufacturing, digital industry and
services’ sectors

effective by taking all stakeholders on board. This

is imperative because India, in coming years, is
aggressively working on a series of dams that
include Sawalkote (1856 MW), Kirthai I (390 MW),
Kirthi II (930 MW), Pakal Dul (1000 MW), Kwar
(540 MW), Kiru (624 MW), and Bursar (800 MW),
all in contravention to internal principles and

Pakistan’s water diplomacy has been In the rapidly changing global environment,
conducted traditionally in isolation, without Pakistan needs a dynamic, proactive and forward-
looking at the big picture and without closely looking foreign policy. While firefighting will
consulting all stakeholders in the state apparatus. remain part of day to day conduct of foreign policy,
Pakistani Indus Water Commissioners, who have a long-term vision of our foreign policy, anchored in
led talks with their Indian counterparts, though Pakistan’s national security paradigm, extending
had good technical knowledge, lacked sufficient to year 2050, should be developed and pursued.
diplomatic or negotiating skills and full inter- This would not be a unilinear tunnel vision but a
ministerial support. flexible framework that would adjust and respond
India very deftly and speedily built dams, such to future developments and vicissitudes. The core
as the Baglihar and Kishanganga dams, during of this vision should be that, by 2050, Pakistan
periods of high tension between India and Pakistan, will rise holistically to become one of the top
when there was nearly complete breakdown in twenty developed and strong nations of the world,
communication between the two countries. economically and militarily, with levels of human
Pakistan’s approach towards water diplomacy development reaching those prevalent in West
must be revisited and revamped to make it more Europe today.

Notes 3. In August 2017, Pakistan was upgraded from a ‘frontier market’ to an ‘emerging
1. Jones, Bruce, The New Geopolitics, November 17, 2017, Brookings Institution market’ by the MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Index.
website 4. Courtney Cooper and Samir Kumar: from Strength Through Peace and Center
2. War becomes inevitable when a rising power causes fear in an established for Preventive Action: Overcoming the Prisoner’s Dilemma to Reach Peace in
power. Afghanistan, cfr.org

8 Green Book 2019


Green Book 2019 9



Hybrid warfare blends conventional and unconventional
means to achieve policy ends. Combining means and
approaches in such ways is not entirely new. Lineage
of such combinations can be traced back to the ancient
world. What we witness today, is a potent mix of old and
new forms of warfare enabled by technologies around
the internet offering nuances and permutations the likes
and gravity of which were simply not possible before. We
will discuss three distinct arenas in which this adaptive
form of warfare creates effects, namely: the conventional
battlefield; the social sphere; and last but not least, the Dr Mohammad Iftikhar Zaidi is a retired
diplomatic, political and economic stage of international Brigadier from Pakistan Army. He is currently
politics. We observe the complexity of defence against this a Senior Lecturer of Leadership and Strategy at
tripartite warfare on the part of any state or alliance and Cranfield University, UK
the inherent challenges and deficiency in systems thinking
to provide a determined counter strategy over all three
arenas over a sustained period. A significant component of
hybrid war is insurgency. We find a particularly dangerous
post-structural evolution in insurgency that we describe as
3rd Generation Insurgency (3GI) that particularly renders
military power ineffective. The breadth and scope of hybrid
threats create issues in response ownership and strategies
that are difficult to articulate unless we fundamentally
alter how threats are perceived and analysed. In short we
need to start thinking outside of familiar systems. We posit
an ‘adaptive’ approach to deal with adaptive threats and
the complex challenges of hybrid war. Caroline Kennedy-Pipe is currently Professor
of International Security and International
Keywords: Hybrid War, Adaptive War, Adaptive Threat, Relations at the University of Loughborough,
Indirect Warfare, Insurgency Paradigm Shift, 3rd Generation UK. She is also a Visiting Fellow at the
Rothermere Institute at the University of Oxford

10 Green Book 2019


ybrid warfare is currently a organisations to act in concert against a threat or,
fashionable term used to describe alternatively, may take the form of disruption and
the state of contemporary war. physical revision of international norms as we saw
Hybrid war is a type of military and in Russian actions over Ukraine and Crimea.
political conduct which is widely Diplomacy and winning a battle of persuasion
understood to blend conventional is no mean feat in an era where truth is elusive and
and unconventional means with features of contested and propaganda eminently powerful. To
regular and irregular war, and supported or led defend against such tripartite warfare/insurgency
by the application of other elements of national is to say the least difficult and requires on the part
powers.1 While that of any state or alliance
combination is not a determined counter-

entirely new, we now strategy over all the
witness the potent Hybrid war is a type of military three arenas, enacted
addition of cyber-attacks, and political conduct which is widely over a sustained period.
fake news, electoral In this article we
intervention in the affairs understood to blend conventional and examine the recent
of other states and a unconventional tactics with features of history of hybrid warfare
wide spread utilisation regular and irregular war, and supported arguing that after the
of local groups, some of
which may be terrorist,
or led by the application of other elements
end of the Cold War, the
collapse of the bi-polar
to inspire disharmony of national power world permitted shifts
and confusion in the and changes in war
target country or warzone. Insurgency, in its evolved enabling a wide range of actors to take advantage
form, is now a potent mix of old and new means. of ideological voids and political instability. We
Some commentators have traced the lineage of identify some crucial and new elements in the
such hybrid/mixed behaviour back to the ancient character of hybrid wars and the nature of hybrid
One of the key enablers of this form
of warfare is new technologies developing
around the internet. Foremost among these are
communication strategies, to rapidly promote
a political agenda and incite public disruption.
In short, the ‘people’ are targeted not just in a
conventional sense by warfare, but emotional
and personal messages are directed to individuals
and constantly reinforced; perhaps, even via their
mobile phones. A hybrid war, therefore, has three
distinct arenas: first utilisation or posturing for a
conventional battlefield; second provoking unrest
and dissension among communities through
careful use of information and events, and third;
a variety of actions on the diplomatic, political
and economic stage of international politics. This An analyst looks at codes in the malwares section
third arena is one in which states might engage of a cybersecurity defence laboratory, Russia
with allies to persuade international and regional

Green Book 2019 11


threats, in particular the evolution of insurgency military dominance seemed assured. The Bosnian
towards a form, particularly, suited as strategic line War had been eventually resolved and NATO prided
within a hybrid war strategy. We argue that while itself on the defeat of Serbia and the liberation of
the breadth and scope of hybrid threats ought to Kosovo. The Kosovo War did not lead to a single
make it a cross government and societal concern, combat fatality on the Western side. This and the
ownership and response are difficult to articulate mode of winning the war from the air with so-called
unless we fundamentally alter how threats are precision bombing, led to the idea of a ‘Virtual
perceived and analysed and unless we think War’6 and the belief that future wars would follow
outside of familiar systems. Finally, we allude, in the same pattern. Indeed, the Revolution in Military
our sum-up to ‘adaptive’ approach to deal with the Affairs (RMA) seemed to have brought about an age
complex challenge of hybrid war and a particularly of accurate targeting and fewer civilian casualties.
dangerous paradigm creating a new generation of Liberal states could, it seemed, wage war at a
insurgent movements. distance with few sacrifices for their troops and
little disruption for domestic politics. There were of
BACKGROUND course, despite the rhetoric, unintended casualties
on the other side with some caused directly by the
History and Evolution NATO bombing campaign against Serbia. Future
After the end of the Cold War, contradictory war, it seemed, was to be short, sharp and distant –
trends in warfare were apparent. For many at least for Western states.
scholars during the 1990s, the end of the Soviet The events of 9/11 transformed the context
Union had brought about a new ‘world order’ in of war. Rather than forgetting war, states such as
which international politics had taken on a more the US and the UK proved enthusiastic for military
optimistic shape. Some scholars even expressed action against not just those who had perpetrated
the sentiment that war itself had been unlearnt the terrorist attacks on the US homeland but
and had been consigned to historical memory those deemed unsettling to international order
alongwith other arcane practises such as duelling and Western interests. Hence, with the wars in
and slavery.3 In some versions of this theory, hard Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003), a traditional
military power had been replaced by ‘soft’ power.4 type of warfare returned – that of conventional
However, any idea that war had, or has, gone away ‘boots on the ground’.
was simply incorrect. Throughout the 1990s, civil
wars and proxy wars as well as terrorist threats
proliferated across the globe. But where Robert
Keohane and Joseph Nye were prescient was in their
prediction over how important ‘soft’ power would
become. It certainly features in hybrid warfare thus
leading us to the rather simplistic but accurate
claim that hybrid war is a mix of hard power

Hybrid war is a mix of hard power and soft power

and soft power. Cultural power too is important
allowing many or indeed all sides to claim to be the
custodians not just of religious sentiment, ethnic
and historical traditions, but keepers of sacred
sites and artefacts.5
At the time much of this complexity was not
recognised. At the turn of the century and perhaps
in the glow of ‘winning’ the Cold War, Western

12 Green Book 2019


Even so, the opening episodes in these wars We saw, too, the emergence of multiple militias
appeared to confirm earlier trends; the initial some of which were controlled and sustained
Afghan campaign reflected in many ways the Kosovo by external actors and the operation of a variety
war, fought initially by the West largely from the air of criminal gangs which fed off the human and
with the added involvement of special operations’
teams to hunt down Al-Qaeda. Iraq involved a
larger military deployment, but airpower remained
crucial in that arena too. Planners expected a short,
decisive campaign with relatively little resistance.
However, the ‘9/11 wars’ did not prove easy.7 Victory
is not complete till the enemy’s will to continue
fighting is sufficiently eroded. In a conventional
war, this usually occurs when the counter-offensive
is defeated. In both these conflicts, however, the
counter-offensive came in a different mode from
that of the offensive and through enemies that had
morphed within civil society. Opposition, therefore,
came in the shape of a complex and multifaceted
The insurgents in Afghanistan and Iraq
transformed these wars into the type of quagmire
where Western troops encountered the brutality of
not just insurgency, but endemic violence, waged
by a variety of sub-state actors, some of which were
proxy forces, some of which were fighting civil wars
and all of which had their own local or regional Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Founder of ISIS
agenda. The eventual chaos in Iraq, after a series of
blunders by invading troops provided the breeding
ground for not just Al-Qaeda to evolve and adapt material resources of the area for political and
but for the beginning of ISIS. economic gain. Refugees and those fleeing the war
zones of the region came to be utilised for political
as well as financial capital.
The so-called ‘weaponisation’ of the migrant
issue in politicised hybrid warfare is a subject
of considerable importance as the homeless
and dispossessed provide vulnerable terrain for
predatory groups and states.
What we also witnessed was the refinement
of an older idea, the IED (Improvised Explosive
Device) and its wide spread use by the insurgents.
IEDs along with suicide bombers operating among
hostile populations pressured coalition forces
to shift their mode of operations both in Iraq, in
Afghanistan and in the subsequent conflict in

‘‘ After more than a decade of bloody

wars and increasing casualties on all
sides the US and its allies abandoned
the fight in Iraq and attempted an
exit from Afghanistan. The hope was
to keep ‘boots off the ground’ and
utilise new technologies to counter and
kill opponents: Counter-insurgency
without regular soldiering

Green Book 2019 13


After more than a decade of bloody wars and It is perhaps worth noting that
increasing casualties on all sides the US and its
allies abandoned the fight in Iraq and attempted contemporary hybrid warfare of which
an exit from Afghanistan. The hope was to keep drones are a part raises any number
‘boots off the ground’ and utilise new technologies
to counter and kill opponents: Counter-insurgency
of important questions about the
without regular soldiering. This trend was limits of sovereignty and the legality of
exemplified by the widespread use of armed ‘‘
drones to eradicate opponents in Afghanistan, in
Pakistan and in Yemen. This use of armed drones of the citizens of other states
by both (the US Military and the CIA) to execute
enemies became characteristic of the first term of
the Obama Administration inspiring considerable
debate about the legality of killing/assassinating terrorists are increasingly mobile, crossing borders
individuals both inside and outside of zones of into complex urban environments and sometimes
conflict.9 staging terrorist atrocities to provoke and unsettle.
APS Peshawar (2014),10 Paris (2015)11 and the
Drone surveillance also caused unmeasured
numerous attacks in London are examples of this
and possibly immeasurable psychological and
agility and adaptability.
physiological stress on the affected population
that heard the mosquito like buzz of armed drones Individuals or groups may take up such acts
above and lived in the fear of the next strike. It is to serve a personal agenda, at the same time,
perhaps worth noting that contemporary hybrid consciously or unconsciously double tap by
warfare of which drones are a part raises any supporting or exploiting the designs of external
number of important questions about the limits powers. A counter hybrid war strategy may thus
of sovereignty and the legality of interference/ engage such groups as an auxiliary line of action.
subversion/assassination of the citizens of other Mercenaries, groups with no obvious political
states. or criminal agenda become an instrument of the
third arena of hybrid warfare, working for a state
The desire on the part of some states, but
or indeed under the control of a non-state actor.
most noticeably the United States not to commit
Malign states engaging such groups keep their
manpower into theatres of war, was reinforced
hands clean without threat of attribution and yet
during the ‘Arab Spring’. The uprisings across
retain the potential for a high degree of control.
the Arab world against brutal rulers such as the
In this sense, as we witnessed during the 1970s,
Qaddafi regime in Libya in 2011 were characterised
terrorist or what we identify as terrorist groups or
in Western circles by a desire to ‘encourage’ the
cells, may be part of a broader agenda, motivated
overthrow of unsavoury regimes that it could
and funded if not always totally controlled by an
no longer work with and to do so without the
external power.
committal of significant troop numbers other than
small special operations’ teams and intelligence
units. In the Libyan action there were, therefore, Terrorist Attack on Army Public School Peshawar, Pakistan,
few casualties for the European powers. The conflict killing 132 innocent students (16 December 2014)
in Syria since 2011 has also been characterised
by an American reluctance to commit ‘ordinary’
troops, but the utilisation of massive strategic and
tactical bombing. This is coupled with an overt
encouragement of rebel and militia groups and the
use of military contractors. The deployment too
of private military personnel is a feature of most
modern conflicts in which Western powers are
The way of war is now, as it was in Kosovo,
military action at a distance. The continued
and increasing use of armed drones, as well as
the reliance on local forces and private security
contractors, demonstrates a preference for
technology and surrogate forces. One important
consequence of this is that ‘opponents’, whether
they be terrorists or other types of criminals, adapt
their behaviour refusing to stay ‘in theatre’ to be
hunted down and potentially killed. Insurgents/

14 Green Book 2019


New Wars/Hybrid Wars/Insurgency? The Iraq war was beset by the bewildering
spectre of sectarian strife, death squads,
Contemporary conflicts continue to display
beheadings, suicide attacks and whole sale human
a disturbing mix of characteristics. They are
rights abuses.15 The important point is that whatever
seemingly inconclusive and intractable. Most
gains had been achieved by the US-led coalition in
noticeably there are no official declarations of war
terms of elections and new governance structures
and there is no clear mode of surrender or indeed
were ultimately offset by the political decision to
of what may constitute a ‘victory’. Mary Kaldor, in
withdraw foreign troops completely in 2011. This,
coupled with sectarian politics, provided the fertile
ground for the emergence and rise of the Islamic
State group and a generational shift in the nature
and character of insurgent organisations. We will
come back to this later.

‘‘ Contemporary conflicts continue to

display a disturbing mix of characteristics.
They are seemingly inconclusive and
intractable. Most noticeably there are no
official declarations of war and there is no
clear mode of surrender or indeed of what
her conceptualisation of New Wars, talks about the may constitute a ‘victory’
‘grey zone’ between war and peace; conflicts that
are often identity-based a mixture of old and new
(primitive and modern with more guerrilla raids and Islamic State was, and is, in many ways a
massacres than set-piece confrontations between more agile and resilient reincarnation of Al-Qaeda,
clearly identifiable armed groups).12 Battle lines though remnants of the latter still surface, it seems
are blurred, with high-levels of collusion between to have subsumed its precursor organisations. One
supposed protagonists.13 Violence is directed at of the reasons for this was its operating model
civilians in the form of massacre, mutilations and the other its success. Islamic State rapidly
and rape, often with the sole purpose of creating re-established a grip on parts of Iraq and Syria
sensation. Conflicts such as those in Sierra Leone, as well as footholds in Afghanistan, Yemen, and
Liberia, Somalia, Chechnya, Sri Lanka, and Nepal beyond. In most instances, this reinforced already
were characteristic of these so-called new wars, incubating ideological polarisations with more
Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya can be added into this virtual one is reinforced through the internet,
list.14 targeting youthful population perhaps alienated
from their own societies.
The delinking of insurgency and geography by
creating pathways into the global human terrain
obviated the need for physical sanctuary and
created the lone wolf or mini-cells. Control of a
physical refuge with a sympathetic population is
still considered by many an essential requirement
for insurgent organisations but that may change as
insurgents utilise the battle space of cyber-attacks.
Structures are the product of strategy and while
large formal organisation inverse this relationship,
insurgent organisations have generally remain true
to this principle.16
In the UK, the outbreak of terrorist attacks
starting but not ending with the London suicide
bombings of 2005 has been widely linked to the
influence of websites highlighting the Western
abuse of Muslim populations in war zones.
Radicalised men and some women have left the UK
to fight in Iraq or Syria or have perpetuated terrorist
attacks on UK soil. All the post 9/11 battle spaces
have witnessed opponents utilising a wide range

Green Book 2019 15


of tactics to disrupt superior state forces embroiled By way of an example of the nuances discussed
in clearly asymmetric but difficult struggles both at above, we take a brief look at the Ukraine Conflict
home as well as in conflicts abroad. which is considered by many analysts in the West
It has also given rise to random and apparently to be a model Hybrid War.
isolated individual or small team acts (not From a Western perspective, Russia since
sufficiently organised to be called ‘cells’) that do the turn of the century, has behaved like a
not seem connected to, or commanded by, other Revisionist power. This has been provoked
entities, but rather self-motivated, even when arguably by the expansion of NATO to the East
facilitated and abetted by external entities.17 ‘Self- and the incorporation of states such the Baltic
starting’ terrorists are also observable as in the case Republics into the organisation. The ambition of
of the attack on the Finsbury Mosque in London.18 Ukraine and countries such as Georgia to acquire
membership of Western organisations has been
Finsbury Mosque – London widely cited as antagonistic by Russian analysts
and spokespersons. So too has the extension of
the influence and association agreements by the
European Union with for example Ukraine. Russia
found itself threatened by an eastward tide of
EU and NATO influence. In this sense, Ukraine
became a critical testing ground for Moscow. The
geostrategic and historic importance of Crimea to
Russia and its Black Sea Fleet arguably left Moscow
with little or no choice but to act in its longer-term
strategic interest. The intervention in Georgia in
2008 made by Russia in part but not only to protect

There is another nuance. Adaptive war, as we

may term it, also provides opportunities for covert
organisations of a state to cultivate, motivate and
even create radicalised cells and/or individuals
and use them to undertake sensational acts. Such
individuals or groups never clearly know the
identity of those helping and facilitating them in
their motivation. The hand that ‘wields’ the sword
may never know the motivations and intentions of
the hand that ‘forged’ the blade.
In short what is now labelled hybrid warfare,
and we describe as adaptive war, has been utilised
by a range of groups, proxies and terrorists in
insurgencies and counter-insurgencies over many
years. Most obviously, the label hybrid war was ethnic Russians, was also about securing territory
used to describe the strategy used by Hezbollah and influence. It was this intervention which has
(alleged to be backed by Iran) in the 2006 Lebanon given rise to renewed interest in the character of
War. However, it was the Russian actions in hybrid warfare.
Ukraine and Syria which have inspired much of Military action in eastern Ukraine and the
the contemporary debate about the meaning of, as Crimea was preceded by disruption of Russian
well as the use and effectiveness of so called hybrid speaking people in the region, a potent propaganda
warfare. campaign utilising historical examples and
grievances and the appearance of the ‘little green

men’ unbadged and technically unrecognised in
The hand that ‘wields’ the sword may the growing conflict. But, as Andrew Monaghan
never know the motivations and intentions has pointed out, there was a powerful conventional
element in all of this.19 Some 40,000 Russian
of the hand that ‘forged’ the blade troops were massed on the border. The battles at

16 Green Book 2019


Donbas Airport all involved high intensity conflict failed to either remove the government, control
including the extensive use of armour, artillery and territory or stem human rights abuses. The retaking
multiple launch rocket systems as well as drones by Russian backed forces of the ancient city of
and electronic warfare. Keir Giles from Chatham Palmyra from ISIS which was both widely reported
House in London has added a critical voice to the and applauded in the Russian press highlighted the
speculation over Russian operations in eastern ability of the Kremlin to celebrate and promote the
Ukraine as somehow constituting simply irregular prowess of Russian military muscle even though
warfare.20 As he has pointed out the Russian reports of Russian complicity with members of the
incursion into Ukraine was ultimately a large-scale Islamic State group were openly circulating.23
conventional military cross-border intervention Russia and its official media outlets deny
that a ‘hybrid’ doctrine, as described in the West,
is applied by the Russian Armed Forces. Some
sources deny any existence of such a doctrine.
Indeed, in the case of Ukraine the unique nature of
that example, the weakness of the Ukrainian Army,
the presence and embrace of the ‘polite people’ in
the East note not the more sinister ‘little green men’
as described in the West and the overwhelming
support of the Russian people (and Parliament
in March 2014) for the Crimea intervention have
all been stressed. This was a one-off event and it
would be impossible according to some analysts to
replicate any similar action in say the mid-west of
the United States or in Poland.24 Perhaps but can
the same, however, be said for the Baltic States?
There are after all historical/cultural/ethnic claims
by Russia on these states and the Russian speaking
population in for example Estonia are widely
‘targeted’ by Moscow inspired propaganda.
In addition, the propaganda campaign waged
across a variety of arenas has highlighted the claim
undertaken in August 2014. Russian troops that it is Russia which is under imminent threat
and transport although badged by the Russian from powerful external forces. However, many of
authorities as primarily present for the delivery and Moscow’s ‘near’ neighbours believe that they are
organisation of humanitarian aid, proved militarily under attack from Moscow. Hence Finland which
decisive.21 occupies a particularly vulnerable position in
Most analysis of the current mode of Russian comparison to its large neighbour has taken robust
hybrid war has centred on an understanding of measures to fend off ‘hybrid’ or mixed activities.
the so-called Gerasimov Doctrine as developed
by the Russian Chief of the General Staff – Valery Valery Gerasimov
Gerasimov.22 In 2013, in a now much read essay,
Gerasimov wrote of a blurring of the lines between
states of war and peace. He went on to describe
‘long distance’ and ‘contactless’ actions against the
enemy as the primary means of achieving combat
and operational goals.
That essay has been taken by some Western
scholarly and military communities as evidence of
an innovative, far sighted and novel approach to
war; essentially a new Russian military doctrine. In
turn, this ‘new’ approach is perceived as facilitating
and underpinning an expansive and aggressive
foreign policy agenda. This ‘doctrine’ in addition
to the modernisation of the Russian Armed Forces,
energy ‘blackmail’, the annexation of Crimea,
as well as a ‘successful’ Russian policy in Syria
(neutralising Western action to remove the Syrian
leader Bashar al-Assad) has caused a fair degree of
consternation and controversy. Western policy has

Green Book 2019 17


The Finns have been recently flooded with

fake news and the use of troll farms as well as
suffering a variety of over-flights of its air space
by Russian aircraft. Propaganda hostile to the
Finnish Government has taken a variety of forms
but not least have been claim from Moscow that
Russian speakers in Finland are discriminated
against on a routine basis in terms of property
rights. In response, Helsinki has put in place a
public diplomacy programme to train government
officials about disinformation but also increased
its emphasis in schools on media ‘literacy’. It is not
just Finland that is wary of hybrid warfare from the
east but Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Sweden and international circumstances in which it is waged.’
Norway. He has argued that actually ‘Hybrid War is the
Russia has also seemingly taken the new horizon for US regime change strategy.’25 This
opportunity along its shared border with Norway mixture of irregular and regular warfare will be the
to ‘mischief make’ in terms of allegedly allowing future strategy for US interventions in pursuit of
refugees fleeing the Middle East to make their way its foreign policy interests particularly in an era of
across the border on bicycles! Hence the idea that fake news.
as part of a hybrid war strategy the Russians are Whatever the debates about the essence of
seeking to ‘weaponise’ migrants and generally Russian military doctrine and whatever claims
exploit the migrant crisis to further divide the may be about future US warfare now the success
politicians and peoples throughout Europe who of this adaptive form of warfare is clear. Western
disagree (sometimes violently) about migrant/ responses to Russian provocations—or for that
refugee policy. matter, Russian responses to US Hybrid warfare,
The concentration on Russia as pursuing if we take the Korybko thesis is predicated upon
hybridity in warfare is contested. A contrary thesis avoiding direct military conflict. In this sense
is presented by Andrew Korybko, who, in his 2015 the Russian ‘gains’ in Ukraine and Crimea have
study of Hybrid Wars, claims that the US, is the extended Moscow’s grip on the region. Despite
only country currently engaged in Hybrid War. He sanctions, diplomacy and some military posturing,
argues that the nature of Hybrid War is such that (the latter limited to NATO reinforcing its strategic
it is ‘counter-productive for any of the Eurasian presence in, both, Norway and in Estonia) Russian
Powers to attempt it in their region’ due to proximity ‘gains’ in the tactical and strategic planes remain
issues and the unintended consequences/spillover intact.
of what he calls the resulting ‘black holes’ on their Although the legacy of irregular methods in the
own borders. He predicts that the ‘US will exercise region remains unknown at this point in time. New
a full monopoly on Hybrid War for at least the next power brokers, dissidents and guns for hire may yet
decade, if not in perpetuity owing to the unique threaten Russia in the longer term.

‘‘ Andrew Korybko, in his 2015 study

of Hybrid Wars, claims that the US, is the
only country currently engaged in Hybrid
War. He predicts that the ‘US will exercise
a full monopoly on Hybrid War for at least
the next decade, if not in perpetuity owing
to the unique international circumstances
in which it is waged.’ He has argued that
actually ‘Hybrid War is the new horizon for
US regime change strategy.’ This mixture
of irregular and regular warfare will be the
future strategy for US interventions in pursuit
of its foreign policy interests particularly in
an era of fake news

COUNTER STRATEGIES: TO MANAGE OR Threat Spectrum in the Second Arena

DEFEAT? Provoking, exploiting, supporting unrest and
Hybrid Strategies dissension among people through careful use of
information and other forms of national power,
The historical perspective and the Ukraine case as we have demonstrated in above paragraphs,
study presented here provided a prism enabling us is nothing new. In fact, Sun Tzu28 talks about
to demonstrate and extract some of the nuances hollowing out one’s enemy from the inside
that hybrid war presents. We can now turn to an absorbing the whole without fighting in his famous
inductive conceptual analysis of the nature of the treatise on war. War among people or violent social
threat and develop ideas that underpin responses movements are wicked problems or what Heifitz
to state or sub state threats at the strategic plane. describes as adaptive problems.29 Such problems
A cleverly articulated hybrid war strategy by don’t follow the rules of systems and as such have
a revisionist and ambitious power(s) produces
never been easy to deal with. And while such
confusion, discord and disharmony in the targeted
conflicts may be deeply rooted in history, ideology,
state or region. There may be confusion as to the
religion, culture, or general deprivation, solutions
overall objectives (even the existence of any design)
and the means, and the ways, contributing towards that are unsympathetic to perspectives and deal in
attainment of the design or ends. Even more elusive the present or the near future, treat the problem
and difficult to define are the linkages between not for what it is but what it is constructed to be, a
what appear to be disparate actions spread over tame30 or a critical31 problem, in fact a problem that
a long period. How does communal disruption follows rules.
in one village link to the appearance of protestors Prescriptions for fighting insurgencies and
in another city or the circulation of rumours on hybrid threats abound. There is an extensive
the internet? How can these different events be literature that looks at categorising and classifying
put together? Because of uncertainty, dissonant social movements and conflicts. This is important.
views, often reinforced by elite political or financial Our interpretation of a problem points us
interests, emerge. The nature of the threat, its towards its solution, misinterpret the problem and
aim and in turn, its ownership, are variously the solution will invariably not work, or worse,
disputed and what often results is a disjointed and exacerbate the problem. As was seen in the Iraq
ambiguous counter strategy. War after 2003 the widespread misunderstanding of
the ‘people’ by invading forces and the politicians
Threat Perception in the First Arena at home meant that inevitably there was a failure to
Of the three arenas of hybrid war discussed understand complex local tribal politics.
earlier, the relatively easier to decipher is the first Western failure meant that other external
arena, that is the utilisation of or posturing for a actors could fill the voids created by poor security
conventional battlefield. Even the best guarded planning and policing and the misunderstanding
strategy or strategic intent may be discerned of Sunni-Shia relations plus a fateful ignorance of
from an analysis of hostile power interests, force the motivations of external actors.
and infrastructural development, training and
alliances. In short a military equivalent of what

Henry Mintzberg describes as a ‘pattern in a
stream of actions’.26 (In light of an extensive body
of literature and practice, we will not discuss this
A cleverly articulated hybrid war
arena further here). The second and the third arenas, strategy by a revisionist and ambitious
however, require a more critical analysis as it is here power(s) produces confusion, discord
that strategic lines are often blurred. Furthermore,
the experiential lens27 for strategic analysis — the and disharmony in the targeted state or
bedrock of conventional military planning and region. There may be confusion as to the
systems thinking — is not terribly useful if there overall objectives (even the existence
is a mix conventional/insurgent scenario. Unless
the targeted state processes national security as a of any design) and the means, and the
broad interrelated and mutually informing system, ways, contributing towards attainment
it is unlikely that it could make the necessary of the design or ends. Even more elusive
connection predicating a comprehensive response.
This creative leap notwithstanding, biases like and difficult to define are the linkages
‘anchoring’ and ‘availability’ creep in. This is the between what appear to be disparate
classic adage of every problem looking like a nail to
a person with only a hammer.
actions spread over a long period

Green Book 2019 19


The Third Arena

This arena involves a variety of actions on
the diplomatic, political and economic stage of
‘‘ Unless the targeted state processes
national security as a broad
interrelated and mutually informing
international politics.
Sun Tzu recognised the power of indirect system, it is unlikely that it could make
warfare. Taking the enemy, without fighting and in the necessary connection predicating a
the process conserving vital resources mandates’ comprehensive response. This creative
avoidance of direct confrontation. Attacking an
enemy in different planes in a sustained manner leap notwithstanding, biases like
while pacing the scale and tempo of the ‘offensive’ ‘anchoring’ and ‘availability’ creep
within limits of hope and tolerance of the political in. This is the classic adage of every
elite and threshold of survivability for the masses
creates long term parallel effects.
problem looking like a nail to a person
The dilution of economic, social and human with only a hammer
capital in disparate directions germinates a
defensive mind-set, making the target state further
vulnerable and opens to other forms of attack. This ungovernable and easy to penetrate by a host of
form of warfare circumvents constraints such as actors.
alliances, military parity and again avoids direct The question now is what is new in all of this
conflict.32 for our understanding of countering hybrid war
Hybrid war displays a non-kinetic extension and insurgency?
of Ludendorff’s conception of a total war with The first novel feature is motivation. Groups
a covert twist. The utilisation of diplomatic, in a micro sense and social movements in the
economic, informational and cultural power macro context are motivated by their personal or
directly and indirectly—through alliances and parochial interest. A hybrid strategy utilises these
political networks, pressure groups and the media parochial motivations to facilitate the objectives
are adopted over a sustained period. of such movements and groups through means
This, we can argue, is a situation which has that create secondary effects towards serving or
relevance to contemporary Pakistan. This third facilitating other lines of operation that tie into
arena essentially contains the main thrust lines the hostile power’s interests. The social movement
and is the one where the long-term objectives are may remain oblivious to the fact that in pursuing
sought by hostile powers to undermine, disrupt its own narrow interest it is also servicing someone
and fragment the opposing state. The aim is to stir else’s wider agenda. Ironically, perhaps the wider
up politics, class, clan, tribe and gender relations, agenda may be detrimental in the longer term to
perhaps even to make parts of the country that group or movement.

20 Green Book 2019


The second feature is that the ideological
or motivational base is disaggregated from The point is that in contemporary
recruitment. We see a glimpse of this in Islamic war and conflict we do not know for
State recruitment, which has a strong global sure who the insurgents are, who funds
dimension to it, even for actions in a specific area,
say for example Syria. Who is doing the recruiting, them and whether they are connected
who one signs up to serve or even if an individual to, or operated by, states or other
decides to act alone, the purpose being served is actors in the international system. It
disaggregated from the source of the motivation,
the thought leaders. This feature in turn provides is now relatively rare to see a purely
two further differentiating qualities that set apart nationalist insurgency at work
3rd Generation Insurgency (3GI) from 1st Generation
Insurgency (1GI), these are reach and mobilisation.
The insurgent message finds instant credibility with
purpose. The long-term lingering impact is key. The
impact, for example, of the Taliban attack on APS
Peshawar is hard to measure. Different political
groups, as we witnessed constructed the impact
of the event from their own point of view creating
multiple narratives.
Finally, we need to consider distance and
dehumanisation. The utilitarian argument that
the ends justify the means, takes on a whole new
dimension. Those at a distance but indirectly
supporting the group have clean hands. They do
not suffer and may even be disinterested in the
human costs effects of the violence and disruption
they have funded or directed. They are interested
in the ends and not necessarily the means.
Although sometimes the means – implemented by
terrorists, or criminals or states can also be an end
– to unsettle a society.
In this sense the recent attack with a chemical
nerve agent in Salisbury in the UK was striking
in terms of its means and its ends: disturbing
and illegal ‘means’ led to widespread political
disruption surely an end in itself for those who had
directed the attack?
The point is that in contemporary war and
conflict we do not know for sure who the insurgents
are, who funds them and whether they are
connected to, or operated by, states or other actors
in the international system. It is now relatively rare
receptive segments of population across the globe, to see a purely nationalist insurgency at work.
it is not geographically confined and can occur in
Most groups even those who would badge
the open media. Additionally, the action groups—
themselves as ‘nationalist’ are actually complex
the people that do the tactical damage—mobilise
and hybrid organisations working across borders
independently of the leadership and the visible
and utilising technology for spreading ideas and
organisations. The action groups are thus difficult
fund raising.
to detect in the conventional system approach to
threat perception and analysis.
The need for sanctuary and a sympathetic
A Post - Structural Construct of
population base with a geographical contiguity, as Insurgencies
we have described earlier, is no longer a necessity; Language and terms of reference
both are pre-requisites for 1GI and 2GI. Cells of all notwithstanding, scholarship generally agrees on the
sizes hide in the mercy corners of cyber space. political and nonpolitical classification of insurgent
Another significant feature is that all tactical movements. In both these forms, the underlying
actions are effects-based not objective-based. assumptions are, nonetheless, consistent and
It does not matter who did the act and for what form what we might call the first paradigm . These

Green Book 2019 21


basic assumptions use physical space, sanctuary, This implies that there is considerable synergy
leadership, external support, diffusion in mass in approaches to manage political, non-political
and human capital as the metrics for analysis and networked insurgencies.
and classification underpinned with a geocentric The Information Age has transformed
context. Operationally, each of these types of society and the military; it has also created new
insurgencies may employ a variety of means, opportunities for the insurgent. Opportunities
methods and tactics for creating effects. Some that expand the scope of activities, the insurgent’s
scholars have used this modal differentiation as battlefield and their idea of battle space. Large
a metric for classification.33 Bunker identifies five insurgent organisations tend towards intelligent,
forms of insurgency as under: adaptive detached minimalistic subsystems.

Insurgency Form Group Examples Theorists’ Form (Year)

Radical Islamist (1979) Iranian Revolutionaries Metz; Reactionary (1995)
Hezbollah Rapoport; Religious Extremism (2001)
Shia Militias (Iraq) Kilcullen; Globalised Islamist (2004)—
Mujahedeen Sunni focus
Taliban O’Neill; Reactionary-Traditionalist (2005)
Al-Qaeda Schnabel & Gunartna; Religious (2006;
Islamic State 2015)
Liberal Democratic Contras (Precursor) Beckett; Superpower Based (2001)—
(1989) African National Congress (ANC) United States proxy component
Free Syrian Army (FSA) O’Neill; Pluralist (2005)
National Council of Resistance Iran (NCRI)

Criminal (Early-2000s) African Warlords Metz; Commercial (1993)

Colombian and Mexican Clapham; Warlord (1998)
Cartels Sloan; Apolitical (1999)
Latin American Gangs Thom; Economic (1999)
Ndrangheta (Italy) Cilliers; Resource-Based (2000)
O’Neill; Commercial (2005)
Sullivan; Criminal (2008)
Tarr; Resource Control (2011)
Metz; Non-Political (2012)
Plutocratic (2008) Global Elites (.001% to 1%) Metz; Commercial (1993)
Multinational Corporations Bunker; Plutocratic (2011)

Table 1: Contemporary Insurgency Forms34

Metz observes the influence of modern And while we may have answers to some of
technology on how insurgent organisations today’s conflicts, the character of insurgency has
function and operate and a networked variant to transformed and is still transforming. It is this
proto-state and non-political insurgencies.35 evolution that places what the US military refer
Modern insurgencies are driven by a political to as the fifth domain36 of warfare at the focus of
particularism, profit or grand politics. The response.
penultimate objective is usually a combination One of the limitations in using structural and
of destabilisation, weakening or disintegration functional elements and indeed paradigms for
of the targeted state. Seen from the other side of classification is that post-structural and innovative
the prism, we find that effects sought also overlap methods can elude observation. We, therefore,
and include a mix of paralysis, dislocation, propose a post-structural approach to placing
division and disruption. Insurgent tactics, such as different forms of insurgencies into categories.
terrorism, aims at achieving transient effects like There is comparatively marginal impact on threat
distraction, dispersion or fixation and is directed at perception and response in legacy type insurgent
the elements of national power and society. movements and their place within an overall

‘‘ The Information Age has transformed society and the military; it has also created
new opportunities for the insurgent. Opportunities that expand the scope of activities,
the insurgent’s battlefield and their idea of battle space

22 Green Book 2019


essentially a new contiguous population base—the
Internet enables communications human domain—where recruitment can take place
such as social media coupled with the and where influence is ultimately exerted.
so called ‘dark net’ to provide global Such insurgencies are geographically
contained, require physical sanctuary, a
reach and networking, the exchange of
everything from radical ideologies to
sympathetic population for the dual purpose of
recruitment and dissipation. External support
blue prints for IEDs is critical and such insurgencies generally have
focal leadership that acts as the hub of power
and movement. Examples of such insurgent
movements are: Maoists movements, the Taliban
hybrid strategy, however, a paradigm shift leading 2001 to 2003, the Afghan Mujahedeen; Organised
to a newer generation of insurgencies, is apparent Crime cartels in Colombia and warlords in various
and this reclassification of our fundamental post-colonial uprisings in Africa.
assumptions needs consideration. We argue that
within a hybrid war scenario, the insurgencies
reflect the state of relationship between insurgent Maoists Movement – 1GI
and wider society as well as a relationship between
insurgent leadership and insurgent followership.
Communication, a metric that has not featured
as significantly in earlier classifications, is the
key. The internet enables communications such
as social media coupled with the so called ‘dark
net’ to provide global reach and networking, the
exchange of everything from radical ideologies to
blue prints for IEDs. Communication predicates the
degree of localisation or geographic dependency
of the insurgent group or more appropriately
insurgent ideas and influence as organisation
and structure, in the classic sense, is becoming
increasingly irrelevant. As communications and
other influencing factors have evolved, we observe
a further paradigm shifts in our conception of
insurgent movements and groups; while a second
shift is emerging.37

The Classical Paradigm (1st Generation

Insurgency: 1GI)
Without going into lengthy topologies
or taxonomies, we classify first generation
The First Paradigm Shift (2nd Generation
insurgencies (1GI) as a combination of proto- Insurgency: 2GI)
state and apolitical insurgencies that depend on This form of insurgency is network enabled and
space, sanctuary, external support, discernable exploits new media in its use of information and
leadership, ideology or clear criminal motives, and communication. A slight variation of this was the
Arab Spring as these essentially began as leaderless
Cyber is the FIFTH DOMAIN of conflict mass public response. Apart from transient mass
after land, sea, air and space public movements, 2nd Generation Insurgent
movements exhibit many of the limitations and
constraints of 1st Generation movements. Due to
the use of communication and networking, 2GI
network and coordinate their activities across the
globe relying on physical sanctuary and support in
each of the physical spaces. ISIS and its presence
in many parts of the world as highlighted in earlier
paragraphs is an example. Some of the nuances
that challenge the classical paradigm however, are
a global recruitment base, for example European
jihadists joining ISIS in Syria. The main limitation
is the need for physical sanctuary through control

Green Book 2019 23


‘‘ In some ways, 2GI appears as a

cross over between insurgency and
The Second Paradigm Shift
(3rd Generation Insurgencies: 3GI)
revolution, but are not revolutions Cyberspace and modern communication
technologies provide both the means and an
per se as perpetrators, leadership extension of the traditional insurgent activity.
and organisation are dislocated and Zaidi in 2012, observed the paradigm shifting
initially lacking in the principle roles and introduced the concept of 3GI, centred on
post-structural nature of global insurgencies,
they perform in 1GI the idea, for example, of the lone wolf and mini-
cells self-motivated, self-funded, self-trained,
the minimalist with random and innovative
of territory and some level of ability to merge back approaches to creat fear through terror. The idea
into local population in each of the global theatres. sounded so far-fetched and even incredible to the
Leadership, particularly within regional contexts community of practitioners and academics alike
remains the centre of gravity together with the that without evidence (none existed at the time) it
central idea or unifying factor. remained in the realm of fiction. The events of 22
Such insurgencies may be dealt with by May 2013, when a British Soldier was murdered
using approaches similar to the 1GI but with due in violent attack on the streets of London at the
cognisance of the distributed nature and network hands of two self-radicalised individuals changed
dimension. Such insurgencies do not seem to have a all that.38 We now had evidence, was this a one off
long incubation phase, as they are often derivatives or a new trend? Subsequent such events point to
of earlier less successful social movements. the latter. The post-structural and geographically
They may also have a varied life span, from unconstrained nature of these insurgencies was
protracted to short term. In the short term, variants, at the time considered indefinable and non-
space, recruitment, sanctuary, insurgent leadership attributable. While the character of insurgencies
or external support play a less significant role transformed to an extent that the paradigm, our
than in 1GI. In some ways, 2GI appears as a cross fundamental, assumptions, of what constituted
over between insurgency and revolution, but are an insurgency was challenged. The transition
not revolutions per se as perpetrators, leadership from hard, structural assumptions to soft ones
and organisation are dislocated and initially such as ideas, beliefs, distributed leadership and
lacking in the principle roles they perform in 1GI. networks of thought as opposed to networks of
The Arab Spring provided a brief glimpse of this practice warranted a new frame of reference. At
transitional form where, essentially ‘bottom up’, the same time, the obvious potential 3GI presented
peoples’ movement centred on swarming created for mercenaries and criminal networks to tap into,
conditions for state collapse. Here ‘leadership’ what we now call hybrid wars, was clear.
climbed the bandwagon once the mobilisation The difference between 2GI and 3GI is
had already begun and subsequently exploited the fundamental, it is a paradigm shift. There is no
opportunities presented. need for sanctuary, leadership does not play any
Islamic State provides a useful example of the significant role, there is no ownership of a strategic
protracted variant. Islamic State and its affiliate level only strategic effects filtering up from
groups differ from other contemporary non-state seemingly unrelated tactical actions. In the tactical
groups such as Boko Haram, the Taliban and Al- or technical levels there is no formal organisation.
Shabab in many ways. From an organisational While 2GI demonstrates a dislocation of leadership,
perspective, Islamic State demonstrated several insurgent structures, activities and activists,
unique structural characteristics in the working of in other words a leadership remains one of the
insurgent organisations. The most significant being centres of gravity, 3GI requires no focal leadership,
its global recruitment base, ability to instigate formal structure or elaborate organisation. Ideas
widely dispersed operations if not formally and motivations emanating from, what could be a
control or manage these and yet, aligned also to virtual leader, combined with a mechanism of self-
the classical insurgent model with the control of motivation and training (as provided by the dark
physical space and some harmony with disaffected net) form the basic ingredients for effects in the
regions and populations. physical space.
Properly resourced and with precursors
such as real or perceived prejudices, dissent
and division along ethnic, religious, linguistic
or class lines, 3GI could canvas a modern state
comprehensively. The more developed and modern
in infrastructure the state, the more vulnerable it is

Boko Haram – 2GI


likely to be to 3GI. People, governments, networks, world… whether one opts to trail, track, bait or bust
banking, communications, trade, finance, a network, node or an individual, how do the police
industry, resources, all are included in the physical or other specialist units’ evidence what would
manifestation of earlier generations. eventually become legal matters. The tremendous
3GI can effectively tailor methods and effects success of the Pakistan Armed Forces, the Army
to the target’s vulnerabilities as is not confined by in combating terrorists in the frontier regions is
linear thinking; ramming automobiles into a crowd indeed laudable, however while the battle is won,
on the street is an example whether it is in a street the war continues. Hybrid war will seek to push
in London, Paris or Kabul. It is also not just about such terrorist movements into the new domain.
the ‘radical Islamism’ stereotype as we witnessed In crafting a coherent movement, insurgents no
in the Finsbury Park Attack in London.39 longer need a sanctuary; cyberspace is their battle-

Metric 2GI 3GI

Leadership Critical Virtual

Organisation Operate and exist in physical space

Sanctuary Physical Cyberspace

Population base Local and Global Global

Recruitment Formalised Local and Global Not required in most instances

External support Yes Irrelevant

Funding Yes, routed through the organisation Depends on resourcefulness of cell/

structures individual. When needed is likely to
channel through anonymous
sympathisers (through internet) or
those who stand to benefit from the
actions politically or materially.

Material Support Significant reliance Limited reliance

Impact Localised (local political or criminal agendas) Localised/global (global dimension

of the motivation is more apparent)

Techniques Guerrilla action Terrorism Open conflict (IS in Terrorism Innovative small group or
Syria) Swarming and mass opinion mobilisations lone-wolf action
(Arab Spring) Cyber Terrorism

Table 3: Comparison of 2GI and 3GI

3GI can at best be managed and mitigated. From ground. For insurgents, this is a world far more
threat perception to response, 3GI places a heavy forgiving than the physical one, and promises
reliance of a strong cyber component to detect and rapid impact, and effects at a wider scale.
intercept the broad spectrum of actions and modes
of operation the perpetrators can engage in.

Relational diagraphs connecting threats
is a simple and useful tool for perceiving The difference between 2GI and
interconnected threats that more structured tools 3GI is fundamental; it is a paradigm
often fail to detect. Either way, our conventional shift. There is no need for sanctuary,
approach to understanding threats needs to evolve
to understanding threat systems. leadership does not play any significant
Countering 3GI would require greater access to role, there is no ownership of a strategic
people use of the electromagnetic spectrum which level only strategic effects filtering
throws up legal, moral and ethical arguments. As
insurgents attempt to take the military out of the up from seemingly unrelated tactical
game, effectively negating military power disparity, actions. In the tactical or technical
there is the issue of responding in the physical
levels there is no formal organisation

Green Book 2019 25


Hybrid War: Whose problem is it any way? Hybrid war is everyone’s problem.
3GI is but one component of a Hybrid War. It is a whole of government and whole
We have demonstrated how 3GI attempts to make
military power insignificant. Nonetheless, we have of society problem. While it can’t be
focused on this idea as it is the one closest to the effectively fought — because the enemy
military dimension of the response. The security remains elusive — it can be effectively
dimension is much broader. Korybko argues that
hybrid war permits individuals to become swarms managed because we can know what
that can then be used in creative ways to overwhelm we are managing and can strive to get
authority and lead to what he calls a ‘soft coup’. It is
the tactical manifestation of the weaponisation of
it right, it becomes therefore a ‘tame’
ideas and unleashing chaos. The only prerequisite, and not a ‘wicked’ problem
he suggests, is ‘‘an effective information outreach
campaigns and the construction of social networks
over a period of time”.40 A monster composed of ‘a crystal ball gazing. In a hybrid war scenario, even
hive mind of anti-government activists’ is created. insight into an enemy’s capabilities and intents;
‘War’ moves forward, not at the high intensity combat power; contours of its military strategy and
that technology permits it to but at pace far below even enablers and catalysts across other lines of
it. Operational tempos are slowed down, the operation may yield little or nothing of value for
connection between actions and effect obscured actual policy and the development of an effective
and extended over time. The insurgents and counter-strategy.
indeed the hybrid war antagonist, own time, while Much has happened since the military
the protagonists are locked in their own ‘efficient’ community last talked about the changing face of
decision loops. The antagonist moves outside these combat and conflict in the 21st Century. Many of the
decision loops, and all this while, the pieces of the technological and structural developments in war
puzzle come together waiting for the last push. led to some success even if in the overall analysis the
Hybrid war is everyone’s problem. It is a whole West effectively ‘lost’ the war in Iraq. Intelligence
of government and whole of society problem. While successes in Afghanistan and Iraq, particularly and
it can’t be effectively fought — because the enemy most significantly in detection and Counter IED, is
remains elusive — it can be effectively managed something the military and associated industry can
because we can know what we are managing and be proud of. These technical achievements, while
can strive to get it right, it becomes, therefore, a preventing repeat of these tactics, are not helpful
‘tame’ and not a ‘wicked’ problem. in predicting the next lone-wolf armed with an
Threat perception is of course particularly idea and a knife, or a driver gearing up to ram into
difficult. The operational tempo in a hybrid a crowd. Hybrid war, and its connection with 3GI
strategy does the opposite of what we strive for produces a different world of challenges.
in high tempo operations. Instead of trying to get The human domain, the military and
inside the target state’s OODA loop, the object is to technology have large gaps to cover before we can
operate well outside it; what Sun Tzu described as begin to upset and disrupt the advantages a state
operating above the seven heavens and below the pursuing a hybrid war against another or the third
seven earths.41 generation insurgents enjoy. Future technologies
must approach semantic, the synaptic and the
Conclusion physical layers of the info-sphere from a human
Change often needs something dramatic to perspective and this approach will need to be
break existing inertia. In this sense the current adaptive to understand behaviour, sentiment and
debate over Russia and its supposed embrace of dissonance.
a hybrid war strategy has been helpful in terms While crafting their movements, insurgents no
of thinking about the ‘enemy’. It has also opened longer need a sanctuary. Cyberspace is their safe-
debate about insurgency as a tool of great states as house. It is a world far more forgiving than the
well as the province of new and shadowy sub state physical one and promises rapid impact and effects
actors. This is important as despite a remarkable on a global scale. Insurgency within a hybrid war
affinity to absorb technology, militaries the (whether state or sub state) also includes the use of
world over demonstrate an aversion to shedding ‘coercive covert power’, the use of mercenaries, acts
intellectual and structural baggage which has of sabotage, false flag operations, and rogue groups
become embedded in the bureaucracy and the in ways that remain ambiguous to an ideological
mind-set of officials. Doctrine thrives on the hope or religious cause. To this end more in depth
that a compliant enemy will repeat history. In understanding is required of the morphology of all
reality, reading emerging threats can be a bit like sorts of crime, particularly understanding criminal

26 Green Book 2019


and terrorist activities and their communication tap into the fabric of a nation and how it may then
(including the role of cyber, cellular and other hollow out the state one layer at a time.
means); and indeed an interpretation of threats A new breed of analysts and planners is
risks from criminal organisations and violent social needed. There is a requirement for scholars and
movements. students to think and perceive outside of the
Conflicting paradigms, Kuhn would argue, systems approach, who are comfortable with
do not coexist, however, the First and Second ambiguity and extremes of information. Above
Paradigm shifts we find do just that and may play all, political and military leaderships need to be
side by side. Perhaps, we need a different term of less prescriptive and embrace complexity and the
reference for 3GIs to de-conflict this departure from art of dealing with adaptive problems; something
an academic perspective, but that is a discussion militaries are not traditionally good at. As the
for another time. Russian incursion into Ukraine proved and as we
To manage Hybrid war at the national level, have learnt more about Islamic State for example,
a greater cohesion between people, government societies can be subverted in an imaginary sphere
and the military will be needed. At the military of false news, questionable narratives of historical
level, it translates into a merger of human and suffering as well as through the some time false
the technical domains to synergise the physical- promises of more prosperous futures and better
moral and conceptual elements of combat power. governance. It is the ‘people’ who will be targeted
Understanding of interconnections between to undermine a society and a community. To
methods used by various organised criminal groups; counter future threats ‘joined up’ thinking will be
their motivations; their structures and networks; required across government, media and the armed
transferable techniques; public perceptions and forces as well as our own people.
workings of transnational organised crime is vital
for making sense of how a hybrid war strategy may Hybrid war — it is everybody’s problem!

‘‘ It is the ‘people’ who will be targeted to undermine a society and a community. To

counter future threats ‘joined up’ thinking will be required across government, media
and the armed forces as well as our own people
We would like to acknowledge the help of Professor Chris Bellamy of the Oxford Changing Character of
War Programme with this piece.
Notes definition to which we refer. However, we include ‘Culture’ as a separate and
1. National power is defined as the combination of Diplomatic, Informational, influential component National Power which in the UK and US constructs is
Military and Economic (DIME) Power of a state. Used originally in the US not treated separately. See RCDS (2017) Getting Strategy Right Enough. London:
military, the term is now more widely used around the world. UK’s Royal RCDS.
College of Defence Studies has also embraced this typology and it is this 2. Murray Williamson & Peter R, Mansoov (Eds.) (2011) Hybrid Warfare Fighting

Green Book 2019 27


Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present. Cambridge: collision/index.html. Accessed on September 3, 2018.
Cambridge University Press. 19. Andrew Monaghan (2015) “Putin’s Way of War. The ‘War’ in Russia’s Hybrid
3. John Mueller (1995) Quiet Cataclysm Reflections on the Recent Transformation Warfare.” Parameters, 45 940 Winter, 2015-2016.
20. Ibid
of World Politics. London: Harper Collins. 21. Keir Giles (2016) Russia’s ‘New’ Tools for Confronting the West: Continuity and
4. Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S Nye (1998) ‘Power and Interdependence in the Innovation in Moscow’s Exercise of Power. Chatham House, Research Paper.
Information Age.’Foreign Affairs. September/October, 77.5. Russia and Eurasia Programme.
5. Ron B. Hassner (2009) War on Sacred Grounds. New York: Cornell University 22. Roger McDermott (2015) ‘Does Russia’s “Hybrid War; Really Exist.” Eurasia
Press. Daily Monitor. Volume 12 Issue 103. June.
23. Ari Heistein and Shapir Michlin (2016) “Russia’s Hybrid-Warfare Victory in
6. Michael Ignatieff (2001) Virtual War: Kosovo and Beyond. New York: Picador.
Syria.”The National Interest. May 19.
7. Jason Burke (2011) The 9/11 Wars. London: Allen Lane. 24. Roger McDermott, Op. Cit.
8. Mohammad Iftikhar Zaidi (2009) The Conduct of War and the Notion of Victory. 25. Andrew Korybko (2015) Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach to Regime
Shrivenham: Cranfield University. Change. Moscow: Unknown. Kindle Edition. Pp.1574-1586.
9. Lloyd Gardner, Killing Machine The American Presidency in the Age of Drone 26. Henry Mintzberg (2007) Tracking Strategies: Towards a General Theory. Oxford:
Warfare, New York: The New Press, 2013. Oxford University Press.
27. Johnson et. al. (2017) Exploring Strategy: Text and Cases, (11th Ed.). London:
10. BBC (2014) As it Happened: Pakistan School Attack. BBC News Online: https:// Pearson.
www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-30491113. Accessed on September 3, 28. Sun Tzu (2000) The Art of War (A Modern Chinese Interpretation). Tao
2018. Hanzhang and Youan Shibing (Trs.) New York: Sterling Publishing Company.
11. CNN (2015) 2015 Paris Terror Attacks Fast Facts. CNN News Online. https:// 29. Ronald A. Heifetz, Alexander Grashow and Marty Linsky (2009) The Practice of
edition.cnn.com/2015/12/08/europe/2015-paris-terror-attacks-fast-facts/index. Adaptive Leadership: Tools and Tactics for Changing your Organisation and the
World. Boston: Harvard Business School.
html. Accessed on September 3, 2018.
30. Horst W. J. Rittel and Melvin M. Webber (1973) Dilemmas in a general theory of
12. Mary Kaldor (2012) New Wars: Organised Violence in a Global Era (2nd Ed.). planning. Policy Sciences. Volume 4, Issue 2, June: pp 155–169.
Cambride: Polity. 31. Keith Grint (2010) “Wicked Problems and Clumsy Solutions: The Role of
13. David Keen (2012) Useful Enemies When Waging Wars is more Important than Leadership” in Stephen Brookes, Keith Grint (Eds.)The New Public Leadership
Winning Them. New Haven and London: Yale University Press. Challenge. Basingstoke:Palgrave Macmillan: pp. 169-186.
14. David Kilcullen (2009) The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the 32. Andrew Korybko, Op. Cit.
33. See Metz, 2007 Op. Cit.; Galula, 2006 Op. Cit.; Kilcullen, 2010 Op. Cit.; Bunker,
Midst of a Big One. New York: Oxford University Press
2016, Op. Cit and Zaidi, 2014 Op. Cit.
15. Thomas Ricks (2006) Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq. London: 34. See R. J. Bunker, 2016. Op. Cit. p. 39.
Allen Lane 35. Steven Metz (2012) “The Internet, New Media, and the Evolution of
16. Alfred D. Chandler Jr. (1962). Strategy and Structure: Chapters in the History of Insurgency.” Parameters. Carlisle: SSI Autumn.
the American Industrial Enterprise. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press 36. Department of Defence (2011) Cyberspace is a New Warfare Domain. Online.
17. The idea of a generational shift in how insurgencies operated and what
their future direction was tending towards was developed by Dr M. I. Zaidi 37. Zaidi (2014), Op Cit.
classifying three generations of insurgent organisations. The events of 22 38. Frank Gardner (2013). “Two guilty of Lee Rigby murder: Analysis”. BBC News.
May 2013, where a British soldier was murdered by two individuals working Internet. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-25450555. Accessed on September 1,
in concert but acting independent of external control or funding, reinforced 2018.
the idea and provided a brutal example of a third generation insurgency 39. Vikram Dodd and Kevin Rawlinson (2018) “Finsbury Park attack: man
‘brainwashed by anti-Muslim propaganda’ convicted” The Guardian Online.
practice. See also Mohammad Iftikhar Zaidi (2014): Insurgencies: The Third
Generation: A conference paper presented at the AOC Crows conference. darren-osborne-found-guilty-murder-makram-ali. Accessed on September 1,
Edinburgh. Online: https://www.eweurope.com/Content/14th-15th-May-Main- 2018.
Conference-Programme/6_12/ 40. Andrew Korybko, Op. Cit.
18. CNN (2017) London mosque attack suspect named, according to media outlets. 41. Sun Tzu (2000) Op. Cit.
CNN Online. https://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/18/europe/urgent---london-vehicle-

28 Green Book 2019


Green Book 2019 29


‘‘willEach period in the history of nations

have its own theory of war, as every
age could have its own kind of war and
its own limiting conditions
Lieutenant General Raza Muhammad
Khan, HI (M) (Retired), former Corps
Commander and former President of the
National Defence University, Islamabad

The arguments proffered in this rendition seek to provide additional food for thought on doctrinal-
development. It questions the relevance, scope and adequacy of the existing principles of war and
expounds their relationship with common aphorisms of military strategy. The exposition aims at
grasping and comparing the dynamics and philosophies of past and contemporary wars, and suggests
a reinterpretation and expansion of the current thinking on the matter. It recommends the adoption of
four new precepts and rearranging the existing principles to win, or-terminate modern conflicts on a
favourable note.

Keywords: Principles of War, Doctrine, Conflict, Military Strategy, Victory

30 Green Book 2019


he principles of war are as old as the of action, free disposal of forces and security. He
history of warfare itself and many of also propounded two principles of strategy, ‘the
these were formally listed and first intellectual element and the philosophy of reason,
applied during the Napoleonic era. The the spiritual element and the exaltation of the
prevailing principles of war, adopted by will’. His emphasis on the offensive as the ‘law of
most countries, with some variations, war’ is also well known4. Liddell Hart crystallised
comprise about a dozen fundamental axioms that his entire thought process on winning of wars in
represent the best efforts of past military thinkers, six positive and two negative maxims (indirect
to identify those aspects of warfare that could be approach being the dominant maxim), however he
universally true and perpetually relevant to ensure also preferred to parallel these with the principles
victory or to avert defeat in a war. of strategy. Andre Beaufre is of the view that
These are: selection and maintenance of aim since modern wars are no more a mere military
or objective, offensive, mass or concentration, phenomenon, there is an overlap in it in the sphere
economy of force, mobility or manoeuvre, unity of of internal policy, external affairs, economics and
command/effort, security, surprise and simplicity. military operations.5 He goes on to recommend
The British and Canadian defence doctrines also that mastery of strategy in these fields should be
include maintenance of morale as a principle acquired to assist policy for the purpose of winning
of war. The Russian principles of war include wars. Bernard Brodie has opposed any conception
readiness, information warfare, joint and combined that suggests a ‘computerised tabulation or
operations and moral and political factors. keyboard where pressing the right button produces
There has been some divergence of opinion the right answer’ but agrees that ‘the consideration
about these principles even among great captains of a catalogue of numbered principles (usually
of war. fewer than a dozen) with the barest definition
of the meaning of each may be necessary to
Napoleon felt that ‘the principles of war are the communicate to second-order minds (or minds too
same as that of siege. Fire must be concentrated busy with the execution of plans to worry about the
on one point and as soon as the breach is made, specific validity of the ideas behind them), some
the equilibrium is broken and the rest is nothing’.1 conception of what the business is all about’.6
Jomini propounded four broad principles in his
famous ‘Precise’, i.e. directing the mass of force From the brief discussion above, it appears
against the communication lines of the enemy’s that while some military thinkers have mixed
main effort, superiority at the point of decision at the application of the principles of war with that
the strategic level, a similar action at the tactical of strategy, others have chosen to keep the two
level and speed.2 separate. Not much is apparently wrong with
either of these approaches, as belligerents seem to
Clausewitz, the philosopher of war, listed have tested them practically, during the conduct
many important principles for the conduct of of warfare. It therefore appears that it may be a
war.3 He theorised the three general principles of rather difficult undertaking to make an attempt
war i.e., ascendancy of the moral to the physical, to re-appraise these principles or methodologies.
calmness/firmness and audacity. Clausewitz Challenging them could be even more exacting. It
himself modestly, but, perhaps rightly observed is perhaps for this reason that apparently no recent
that the principles had been drawn up by him in a attempts seems to have been made, either to review
haste and therefore, they may not be able to stand their efficacy or to redefine/revisit them, despite
severe criticism. Marshal Foch enunciated four epochal changes in the nature of wars and conflicts,
principles of war, e.g., economy of force, freedom since these principles were first propounded. This
could result in applying outmoded lessons to future
wars and costly miscalculations.

‘‘ The prevailing principles of war, There is also variation, as well as ambiguity

in the exposition of the principles of war, which
adopted by most countries, with some evokes the need for their reassessment, questioning
variations, comprise about a dozen their adequacy and relevance.
fundamental axioms that represent the To do so, the following four cardinal questions
may need to be answered as part of the re-appraisal
best efforts of past military thinkers, effort in this discourse. First; whether the current
to identify those aspects of warfare principles of war are relevant in the present and
that could be universally true and future, domestic, regional and global environment?
perpetually relevant to ensure victory
Second; what is the scope of these principles and do
they provide guidance at all levels at which wars and
or to avert defeat in a war conflicts ruminate? Third; if the various types and

Green Book 2019 31


forms of war, such as cold, conventional (limited

and total), nuclear, guerrilla asymmetrical wars
and low intensity conflicts, including insurgency
‘‘ There is also variation, as well as
ambiguity in the exposition of the
and counter insurgency, to name a few, can also principles of war, which evokes the need
be governed by the present set of principles? And
Fourth; to inquire into the sphere of influence of
for their reassessment, questioning
strategic doctrine on the existing principles and their adequacy and relevance
ascertain if there is any interrelation.

Environmental Tests of the Principles of

War Indo-US nuclear deal, the Indo-Israeli defence
cooperation, the CPEC and Pakistan-China security
The environment includes the totality of understanding and US actions in Afghanistan are
the significant external and internal conditions some examples. Due to the current recession in
that prevail within a given time period. The the economies of many countries, predominantly
most important transformation in the regional Pakistan; the FATF, IMF, the World Bank, and other
environment includes the overt nuclearisation of the donors could also exert a much greater (though
Sub-Continent and the events in Afghanistan after selective) influence on state policies, than it did in
9/11, with its fall out in Pakistan. the past.
There is also a consensus on the grave dangers Pakistan is one of the largest contributors to UN
of a conflict between nuclear armed neighbours, yet peace keeping and enforcement operations. Its armed
limited, nuclear as well as conventional wars are still forces are therefore expected to participate in a variety
being considered as options to resolve contentious of military operations other than war (MOOTW). As
issues related to territorial and other disputes. Limited these factors will shape all future security imperatives
conventional wars could escalate to the use of the of nations, there will be a requirement to take greater
ultimate weapon; with consequences too disastrous cognisance of their presence.
to be managed by any one, yet attitudes on addressing
The existing principles of war do not entirely
the causes of conflict remain unchanged. As I write,
seem to cater for adjustments necessitated by these
almost one third of the Pakistani troops are involved
in counter insurgency/counter terrorism and ‘in aid compulsions or the fact that victory in modern wars
of civil power’ duties. These commitments have their is dependent on the will of the masses and the
own rules and dynamics that may be different from harmonisation of the socio-political, administrative
the traditional principles of war. and military strategies.
Additional visible trends are the phenomenal Scope and Level of Application
developments in information technology, major
role of the media and increasing globalisation of the The current principles of war may have stood
economies. As a consequence, greater reliance on a the test of recent wars at the operational and tactical
collective response for the use of coercive diplomatic levels, yet, there are higher levels at which lower
measures and the application of force, at the regional level postulates could be meaningless.
and global levels could ensue. International support Consider the deliberations at the National
is dependent on the mutuality of common interests Security Council, the National Command Authority,
and challenges/threats. The Indo-Russian ties, the the Defence Committee of the Cabinet, the Defence


‘‘ Consider the deliberations at the National Security Council, the National Command
Authority, the Defence Committee of the Cabinet, the Defence Council, the Ministry of
Defence or the Joint Services levels where major decisions related to war and peace,
including the military system are made

Council, the Ministry of Defence or the Joint Services search for a common list, so important and urgent.
levels where major decisions related to war and This very cursory reference to the components of
peace, including the military system are made. any higher defence organisation and its mandate,
The first three echelons of the higher defence points towards other principles that may be needed
organisation will provide only broad guide lines and at the uppermost levels in all wars and conflicts,
precepts for the planning and conduct of the conflict present or future.
or war. Such forums may reject war as a concept
to solve the crises at hand and will rarely consider Response to the Nature of Wars
principles like offensive action, concentration, or Wars may range, from very high intensity armed
mobility etc. They will be reflecting on bigger issues
conflicts at one end of a spectrum to irregular warfare
outlined in the national security policy/strategy, the
and low intensity operations at the other, which
defence policy and the military strategy, like public
include insurgency and counter insurgency. If wars
opinion, international support and the general state
of preparedness for war, or the lack of it. The senior had to be guided by a set of rules or principles, they
military leadership will always be expected to advise must ideally hold good for the successful execution
the political leadership on such issues, yet these of all these forms of war.
factors are not included in the existing principles of Then there are limited wars, all out wars, nuclear
war. wars and the wars against terrorists. The principles
It may be argued that the domain of the general of war must satisfy and take into account all these
is distinct from that of the statesman, and therefore forms and shades of wars, failing which, they need
the two could have a different set of guide-lines for to be updated. These principles also evoke other
war fighting. While this may be true, conclusions expectations like provision of a generic formula for
from the environment outlined earlier, suggests victory, major guide lines for the conduct and rules
that there has to be an overlap between the two. of engagement of each type of mission, and an
Besides, an exclusive catalogue of principles, meant assurance of victory that will be permanent in nature.
only for use by political leaders is hard to find. In However, the current principles of war are silent on
fact, it is the lack of such guidance that makes the such prospects and appear more applicable to specific

National Security Committee Meeting


‘‘ The current principles of war may Possible New Principles of War

have stood the test of recent wars at the Internal Consensus and Public Opinion
operational and tactical levels, yet, there The significance of Clausewitz’ trinity of ‘the
are higher levels at which lower level
‘‘ people, the government and the military’, in all the
affairs of warfare is well known. He was of the view
postulates could be meaningless that any theory that did not consider this trinity
was useless.
In future wars, the people are not likely to allow
conventional operations, campaigns and battles, governments to take decisions on war and peace,
rather than the entire range of warfare alluded earlier. over their heads. Similarly, the armed forces alone
For instance, the principle of ‘mass/concentration’
may not be relevant to nuclear, chemical or
biological warfare milieu. The necessity for wars Clauswitzian
to be perceived as legitimate and just, for their Trinity of War
successful prosecution and counsel for asymmetric
wars also appears outside the scope of the existing
Considering the revolutions in military affairs,
brought mainly by technological developments,
there certainly is place for some fundamental and
key axioms in the theory and practice of war that
can deal with information operations and the
‘soft’ or cyber wars. The existing principles do
not specifically address low intensity conflicts or
insurgency and counter insurgency operations,
wherein primacy of the political factors, intelligence
based operations and ensuring legitimacy are the
or a superior technology may not prove useful in
key factors. This inadequacy is glaringly evident
winning wars unless the people are ready, willing
when considered in the light of the violent events
and motivated to participate in their own defence.
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere in the
world. It is also paradoxical that such factors that are We know that modern democratic institutions
vital for the conditions of the peace, subsequent to are mainly built on the will of the people and war
the initial victories in conflicts and wars have rarely is, therefore, the concern of all citizens. Domestic
been collectively discussed under some imposing consensus among the elected leaders, the
appellation, such as the principles of war. It may intelligentsia and even the media should, therefore,
be noted that a theory, precept or a notion of war be the corner stone of all war policies/plans.
can be labelled as a principle on the condition that History bears testimony to the fact that a conflict
it provides guidelines for the successful execution between the will of the people and the policies of
of all present as well as future wars/conflicts. The the government or even the military could prove
current list of principles of war appears restricted extremely detrimental to the achievement of the war
to provision of guidance, mainly for the latter and objectives.
is therefore imperfect. Besides, they may not be Sometimes it may not be possible to find military
able to stand the acid test of sufficiency/adequacy solutions to problems that may be essentially
at the highest levels of policy and strategy. political, ideological or economic in nature. In such
Besides, the resilience and power potential cases, the military’s main job would be to create
of a country is remarkably influenced by many conditions that are suitable for arriving at domestic
constant factors, before, during and often after the consensus and public support in the target countries/
end of major combat actions as well. Four such
factors are: internal consensus and public opinion

(supportive or against), international support and
environment, the state of preparedness for war and History bears testimony to the
the impact of information operations on the entire fact that a conflict between the will
spectrum of warfare.
The following discussion in this rendition
of the people and the policies of the
shall examine these and a few other dynamics as government or even the military could
possible new principles of wars/conflicts, in the prove extremely detrimental to the
light of generally accepted norms and selected
historical evidence. achievement of the war objectives

34 Green Book 2019


areas on these issues. The support of the population The people will carry on a war
lies at the core of counter insurgency operations;
however, the US failure to achieve this support in regardless of the outcome if that war is
Afghanistan is largely responsible for their present favoured by them, but if it is detested,
predicament in that country. Sometimes public
opinion may sway back and forth, against or in
the people will refuse to take part in
support of wars, and conflicts in accordance with them, which may in turn force the
the way in which military operations progress. Such
a state of affairs may arise if the people have not
government to make peace for fear of
been prepared by the leadership, for the impending its own safety
events, in advance. This preparation will not be
possible unless its significance is acknowledged.
Even a quick look at recent military history Within these options, the politico-military strategy
verifies that in case of a protracted war or post war must also consider the type of force best suited
insurgency/counter insurgency or a war that leads for the campaign. The preferences could range
to large human casualties, the people must have among others, from the use of minimum force,
a very strong conviction in the cause for which covert actions, and single armed service, like the
the nation has gone to war. The absence of this Special Forces, air force, navy, army or a suitable
condition will invariably lead to an erosion of the combination of these means. Such decisions would
public support to military operations, which in turn be based on an in depth analysis of the capabilities,
could lead to an erosion of military morale and may limitations and consequences of the use of each
even compel the national government to terminate type of force, with its own peculiarities and rules
the war – sometimes under undesirable conditions. of employment. Most of these decisions will
Strong proof of such phenomena could be found essentially be politico-military in nature, requiring
in the Vietnam War, the Soviet and US invasions of a thorough understanding of the theories of warfare
Afghanistan. It is also well known, that the success by the senior most politicians and military leaders.
of our armed forces military operations against This will need time for preparation. But as military
terrorists, since the last many years, were greatly strategy always flows out of policy, the bigger onus
facilitated by a favourable public opinion. of responsibility will be on the political masters,
Sometimes, ‘the people will carry on a war who have to be prepared and trained, during peace
regardless of the outcome if that war is favoured time, to take such decisions, through formal and
by them, but if it is detested, the people will refuse informal military education and war games.
to take part in them, which may in turn force the Preparation for war also includes acquisition
government to make peace for fear of its own safety’.7 of weapons, equipment, munitions, fuel etc. from
The support of the population of countries within the country and abroad. This will require a
which are invaded can only be won if the invaders long period, spread over many months, sometimes
are perceived as liberators, just and friendly and/ years. Readiness will include what Sun Tzu termed
or the general conditions after the war/conflict are ‘knowing yourself and the enemy’. It will also
better than what they were before the conflict. The embrace training for new missions necessitated by
post occupation measures like the Marshall Plan changes in the environment, or in the adversary’s
etc. put in place in Germany
and Japan by the Allied
Powers after World War –
II, provide a good example
of this. Thus, the need to
elevate this factor to its
rightful place as a principle
of war.
Preparedness for War
Any consideration about
the type of response to
aggression or the likelihood
of the same could include
multiple choices. Inordinate
delays in the choice of
response options could have
catastrophic consequences.

The readiness list can be very long indeed,
In future wars, the people are not however the single most important area that can
likely to allow governments to take enhance or curtail liberty of all-action in war, will
decisions on war and peace, over their be state of information operations.
heads. Similarly, the armed forces As the transformation of the world continues
with developments in the means of communications
alone or a superior technology may not and information technology, future wars and
prove useful in winning wars unless the conflicts are likely to be influenced more by these
people are ready, willing and motivated
‘‘ phenomena than anything else. This is discussed
in the ensuing text.
to participate in their own defence
Information Dominance
Sun Tzu advised us over 2500 years ago that if
doctrines. Mobilisation of forces and training of we kept ourselves informed about our adversaries
reservists and second line forces will also need as well as ourselves, we could hope to win
careful consideration. This was indeed a major hundreds of battles. He also stated that ‘all warfare
lesson learnt by the Pakistan armed forces during is based on deception (and surprise)’. Surprise
the Indo-Pak tensions and deployments of forces, at and deception will depend predominantly on
the borders in the years 2001/2002 and 2008, as we information manipulation.
realised that the various government departments Machiavelli believed that a good general could
will need time to reorient and train for their war be differentiated from an ordinary one on account
time functions. of the former’s foreknowledge about the enemy.
The civil defence organisation and the disaster Napoleon equated an agent at the right place
management authorities will have to be readied, to 20,000 soldiers. One of the major reasons given
equipped and deployed during the pre-hostilities by Wellington for his victory at waterloo was
period. Particular attention will have to be given prior information about Napoleon’s forces. Jomini
to the psychological preparation of the people for paralleled knowing with conquering. Clausewitz
war. All training must be extensive to save blood devoted a full chapter to information in war
and designed around future and not the past wars. in his monumental work, ‘On War’. He stated
If a conflict or war is imposed in a state of in the opening sentences of Chapter 6 that ‘…
un-preparedness, the politico military objectives information is the foundation of all our ideas and
will have to be modified and tailored accordingly. actions, in war’. All the three ‘general principles
Protection of vulnerable areas/points, strategic of war’, suggested by Clausewitz, that include
assets and dispersion of nuclear weapons and their ascendancy of the moral to the physical, calmness
means of delivery is also a part of preparedness for and even audacity could be influenced positively
war. or negatively by information operations. These
thoughts per se could have influenced the German
Preparedness is now the first principle of the Army to adopt this principle of war.
Russian and many of the CIS countries, armed
forces. Finally, and most importantly, increased The Information Age in which we are living
readiness levels of conventional and nuclear forces today has fundamentally altered the nature of
helps deterrence, which happens to be the primary warfare. It has almost eliminated the ‘fog’ of war,
mission of all armed forces. enabled most senior commanders to fight the war
through remote controls, reduced the need for
ground reconnaissance and made the necessity for
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you upwards flow of information less critical. It has the
potential to save resources, time and much sweat.
need not fear the result of a hundred battles”
Information operations can be used to influence
Sun Tzu the attitudes, behaviour and even the deep-seated

‘‘ The readiness list can be very

long indeed, however the single most
important area that can enhance or
curtail liberty of all-action in war, will
be state of information operations

36 Green Book 2019


beliefs of the people if applied for a sufficiently and civilian applications of artificial intelligence is
long duration. In the last two decades, the main fundamentally transforming the nature of warfare.
thrust of worldwide research and development has Like telecasts and radio broad casts, the Internet
been directed at information technology. Pakistan does not recognise national or international
is doing its utmost to catch up with the tremendous boundaries and terms like hybrid, non-lethal or
benefits of the information revolution. As Pakistan’s soft wars, utilising the powers of this media are
‘net-work’ dependency grows; its survival can already in vogue. However, the lack-some say even
be threatened by anyone who can disrupt this absence of state control over the internet is giving
network. This is equally applicable to the civil as rise to serious concerns among government circles.
well as the military sectors. With E – Commerce, The dangers of ‘web spoofing’, and other forms
free flow of capital is possible. This could affect of attacks by hackers are quite well known and
national security, if financial institutions, multi-
some counter measures to these have only recently
national companies or even individuals decide to
surfaced. ‘Trojan horses’, ‘logic bombs’, ‘trap doors’,
suddenly shift out funds or investments.
‘worms’, ‘chipping’ and ‘Nano machines’ are some
of the new weapons of this type of war. Modern
satellites, aircraft and remotely piloted vehicles can
pin point minute details with great accuracy, by day
and night and in all weather conditions. Everything
else being equal, the side that has information
domination is more likely to win the contest.
In view of the forgoing, there is a need, to
give information dominance and intelligence the
place they deserve–that of a principle of war. But
information dominance, as well as preparedness
for war may be dependent on international support
for many developing countries, including Pakistan.
This is discussed next.
International Support
As in the past, the outcome of wars/conflicts
in the next century will also be contingent upon
the world opinion and the support of the comity
of nations. For this, a timely successful ‘exterior
With the proliferation of TV channels and manoeuvre’ that aims at an adroit manipulation
broad band internet, the attitudes and convictions of the foreign affairs to shape the international
of the masses, so vital to the success of all forms environment would play a vital role. Some
of military operations, are increasingly being consequences of ignoring this compulsion were:
influenced by the media. Information warfare, despite his operational genius, demonstrated in
that shall include propaganda to sap the morale of the battles of Austerlitz and Jena etc., Napoleon
the rivals and measures was decisively defeated

to keep the spirits of at Waterloo by the last
own population and the Machiavelli believed that a good Coalition of Nations that
armed forces high, will be
possible through media general could be differentiated from an formed against him.
reports and coverage
during the tension
‘‘ This Coalition abhorred
ordinary one on account of the former’s Napoleon’s foreign
period and the conflict. foreknowledge about the enemy policy manifested by the
‘Continental System’.
The electronic media, that includes commercial
Perhaps Napoleon needed some principles other
broadcasts/telecasts, the print media and the
internet shall continue to play the most dominant than those existing at the time for him to follow, in
role and anyone who controls such assets may order to win the war and not only battles.
be able to shape and control present and future The German Blitzkrieg in Poland in 1939 and
events, whether these are at home or abroad. France in 1940 were indeed very fascinating and
With computing powers more than doubling impressive; however, Hitler failed to keep one of
every eighteen months or so, and developments in the great powers i.e. the USA, Britain or Russia
fibre optics technology allowing transmissions of neutral, during the conflict, which led to his defeat
an entire encyclopaedia in a few seconds, military in World War II.

Green Book 2019 37


The erstwhile Soviet Union was humiliated in The role of diplomacy for forming coalitions
Afghanistan due to lack of international support after the events of 9/11 and its impact on the
for their actions in that country. Post World War subsequent military operations in Afghanistan
II history of warfare also indicates that purely needs no reiteration. These issues would assume
bilateral wars may not be easily winnable in view of greater significance in all future wars and conflicts,
the heavy inter-dependence of countries on others of whatever intensity. Saddam Hussain of Iraq
for the sinews of war and the inter-connectivity of and his people paid a very heavy price for acting
the economies of states. The outcomes of the Soviet against the international will when it invaded
Invasion of Afghanistan, the Iran-Iraq war, the Kuwait, but paradoxically, the United States, the
Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the US invasion of Iraq leader of the early Coalition against Iraq did not
and Afghanistan prove that wars for permanent learn this lesson. As a consequence, it faced serious
conquests of territories or even for change of problems in Iraq; chief among which was the cost
regimes, without convincing justification and of sustaining the war effort, which is in trillions of
legitimacy, accepted by a majority of nations, are a US dollars by some estimates.8
very costly and difficult undertaking. Even the most
powerful nations in the world have often preferred
to fight as part of a bigger coalition, though the US Lessons Learnt for the Future
did not learn its lesson from Vietnam when it tried Diplomacy must assert and at times even
to fight a war mostly by itself in that country and over assert its legitimate role as the first means
did the same in Iraq to end the Saddam regime. The for achieving the political aims and interests of
war in the Gulf to end the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, nations.
the war in Kosovo and the war in Afghanistan are At the same time, aggressors would be
recent, well known, examples of a unified action disciplined through punitive measures by the
that enjoyed almost a unanimous international international community, sometimes applied
support. The triumphs in many of these instances against them by the UN, while at other times; it may
were obviously due to the international agreement be without the UN endorsement. Sometimes even
on the disputes in question. A collective response super power interests may not take precedence
formulated through a successful exterior over global concerns and international outlook.
manoeuvre was prevalent in the past and is still a From this, it could also be inferred that while the
logical course, but strangely, it does not figure out
ultimate outcomes of the serious disputes in Asia
as a principle for the conduct of wars.
and the Middle East cannot be determined at this
time, the opinion of the comity of nations may
eventually prevail in these conflicts as well.
This factor is indeed more pertinent for smaller
powers, which may wish to further their interests
against equal or bigger, more powerful states.
However, in future, international support to war
related acts by smaller countries may not be easily
forthcoming, unless there is commonality of threat
or shared interest of other states.
Finally, most wars and even military operations
other than war, fought after World War II, under a
UN or some other multinational umbrella have
generally been successful. The present arrangement
in Afghanistan (ISAF legitimised through the UN)
is a good example, but this dispensation is not
as successful as it ought to be. The main reasons
are that the UN is not in the lead role and there is
lack of enough public support to the continuous
presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan.

‘‘ The German Blitzkrieg in Poland in 1939 and France in 1940 were indeed very
fascinating and impressive; however, Hitler failed to keep one of the great powers i.e.
the USA, Britain or Russia neutral, during the conflict, which led to his defeat in World
War II

38 Green Book 2019


the first principle i.e. ‘Objective’ may well include
Diplomacy must assert and at times a determination of the COG, however, such a
even over assert its legitimate role as the contention is not purported in the glossary of
first means for achieving the political the terms found in commonly known military
publications or literature. In any case, ‘Objective’
aims and interests of nations would mean the political or military purpose or
aim of the war and thus, it would remain distinct
from the term COG. Tackling the adversaries COG
This alone proves that foreign decisions cannot at the least expected time and place has been
be imposed unless the domestic public opinion has strongly advocated by Sun Tzu and Liddell Hart,
been prepared for them simultaneously and all
other fundamentals have been considered before,
during, and after the war.

Relationship of Principles of War and

Tenets of Strategy Strategic
Strategic centre of gravity

As strategy deals with the best ‘ways’ to Operational

Operational centre of gravity

employ the ‘means’ at our disposal to meet the Tactical centre of gravity
‘ends’ in war, the principles of strategy and those
of war have similar aims i.e. winning of wars, and
thus, combining the two for the purpose may be in
order. Strategy also comprises two components i.e.,
the employment and development of forces. Put
together, the principles of war and strategic doctrine and is an accepted norm in our strategic thinking;
however, the Principles of War are silent on the
should cater for a comprehensive response, at most
matter. Thus, there a need to undertake this
levels. However, it must be clearly understood that
exercises concurrently, as an essential step, after
military and operational strategies are unlikely to
consideration of the first, existing principle of war
succeed if the principles of war are circumscribed, i.e. ‘Selection of Aim’. While some references to
or violated. these postulates could be found in the explanation
Clausewitz enunciated five general principles of the principles of ‘mobility’ and ‘concentration
of strategy; concentration of force at the decisive of force’ but it is difficult to find instances where
point, economy of force, speed, public opinion and these principles and the said notions were viewed
pursuit. In addition, he outlined a separate set of together for planning/waging of wars.
principles for offensive and defensive operations
at the tactical level. His view about putting public Conclusions and Recommendations
opinion as a principle of strategy and not war
may have been true in his time, when monarchs The preceding discussion may have provided
generally ruled and public support to government some answers to the fundamental questions raised
decisions was not as significant, however, at the beginning of this part. These are: First; that
nowadays, it needs to be a tenet for both. a reappraisal of the existing principles is needed
with a view to bringing them in harmony with
In strategic terms, consideration of the well- the dictates of the environment and the mission.
known notions of ‘time, space and relative strength Second; that their relevance to all forms of warfare
(TSR) matrix’, maintenance of a state of ‘balance’ at is doubtful. Third; that their scope is rather narrow
all times, selection of the attrition or the manoeuvre and limited to address national security issues
or a combination of the two warfare theories to at higher levels and finally that there is a need to
achieve the war objectives would depend on the expand the principles of war and synchronise them
state of relative preparedness of the two sides and
an analysis of the adversary’s centre of gravity

(COG). Whether it is war or Military Operations
Other Than War (MOOTW), the first and perhaps As strategy deals with the best ‘ways’
the most vital factor for planning would be the to employ the ‘means’ at our disposal to
identification and the tackling of the adversary’s
meet the ‘ends’ in war, the principles of
In fact, no war planning can proceed as desired strategy and those of war have similar
or succeed without the correct determination of aims i.e. winning of wars, and thus,
the opposing COG at many levels, yet this vital
aspect fails to find a mention in the current list
combining the two for the purpose may
of the principles of war. It could be argued, that be in order

Green Book 2019 39


with our defence doctrine for optimum effects. It is of war take a broader, all-encompassing view of
sometimes argued that the principle of primacy of war. They provide guidance at the level at which
the political factors,9 may not serve a useful purpose, decisions concerning war and peace are made.
as military commanders may not be in a position Global and regional powers as well as smaller
to influence political decisions. This observation is nations, may have varying perspectives on wars
negated by the recent events at the politico-military and different pedestals from which they view them,
level in the US, Pakistan and Afghanistan. In fact, nevertheless, in the present day interdependent,
there is a need to formulate a separate guide for inter connected/networked world (a phenomenon
policy makers on counter insurgency in the 21st that is likely to increase many fold in the near
Century as this form of conflict is thought to be future) they must look for such principles of war
eighty per cent political and only twenty per cent that are applicable at the global, regional and local
military in its nature. However, the true purpose of levels (or grand strategic, strategic and operational
such direction can only be met in the context of a tiers). Equal relevance at all these levels would
balance of the political and military factors at the obviously be preferable but not essential. The
top10 that will provide better environment for the principles of ‘International Support’, gained
application of lower level postulates. through a successful exterior manoeuvre, ‘Internal
Consensus and favourable Public Opinion’, and
International understanding and domestic ‘Information Dominance’, are directly pertinent
consensus are likely to ensure primacy of political at the first two levels and indirectly at the last
issues and legitimacy and information dominance level. All of these principles are applicable to
would cover the vital intelligence needs of such most MOOTW, including UN peace keeping and
operations. The new/supplementary principles enforcing operations. They, therefore, merit
consideration and adoption after due adjustment
for local conditions and requirements.
The first two, new principles, may apparently
look irrelevant below the national level, but
this may be a faulty supposition as any errors,
omissions, shortcomings or successes at that level
will profoundly influence the conduct and outcome
of wars, campaigns and battles at the other levels.
In other words, we must take cognisance of one
major lesson learnt repeatedly from history; that

‘‘ In fact, no war planning can proceed

as desired or succeed without the
correct determination of the opposing
COG at many levels

40 Green Book 2019

a viable strategy at the top level can sustain many ones could be designated as ‘principles of military
lower level flaws, however, the opposite is rarely campaigns, battles and operations’, for exclusive
true. These two new principles will call for a military consideration, usage and application at
much closer interaction and accommodation on the tactical/lower levels.
the issue between the political and senior military Alternatively, the new principles could be
leadership. added to the existing ones, beginning with the
The new principles will be equally (if not former and thereby adopting a total of thirteen
more) relevant in considerations related to nuclear, (four new plus nine old) principles. Such a list
biological and chemical warfare where the end state may appear a bit long but the expansion will pass
is always difficult to envision. In such conflicts, most of the validity tests mentioned in this paper.
well contemplated and candid professional advice, Notwithstanding the numbers or form of listing,
rendered by well informed and experienced senior/ the new principles should be applicable at the
strategic military leadership, at the highest level, strategic and higher levels (state, regional, global)
to the national leadership about the ominous and the existing principles must logically flow out
consequences of such wars will be vital. All strategic from these for all lower tiers.
leaders must therefore prudently ponder over these For the sake of doctrinal harmony, all
new principles, well before entering a conflict of this notions and main tenets of strategy could flow
nature. from the existing principles (such as ‘mobility’,
The current principles totally ignore the primary ‘concentration’ and ‘selection and maintenance
mission of the armed forces, i.e. to deter war/conflict. of aim’) and need to be read in conjunction with
Preparedness, by nuclear and conventional forces the new principles, suggested in this paper. The
shall reinforce deterrence and, therefore, it warrants existing principles of war should also be re-defined
recognition as a principle of war. to accommodate the major tenets of strategy.
If war is a ‘continuation of policy by other However, the identification and tackling of the
means’ as stated by Clausewitz, it must be based on adversaries COG is worth particular consideration
the most authentic, precise and timely information. at higher levels and this factor could even merit the
If war is a ‘clash of two opposing wills’ as enunciated status of a separate principle of war at some levels.
by Liddell Hart, these wills can be impinged upon This exercise should be a combined attempt of the
as much by information operations as by kinetic civilian controllers and the military authorities.
military operations. The Principle of Information While the new list of principles is made to mean
Dominance must come up to this expectation. provision of general guidance, mainly for the
If it does not, the future may see more wars like

the one in Iraq, initiated due to faulty intelligence.
The new principle of ‘Information Dominance’ The current principles totally ignore
is mainly driven by technological considerations
and it therefore tends to induce over reliance on the primary mission of the armed forces,
technological solutions. This may be an aberration i.e. to deter war/conflict. Preparedness,
and needs to be guarded against, since war fighting
will remain both an art as well as a scientific
by nuclear and conventional forces
phenomenon. shall reinforce deterrence and,
The new precepts could preferably be termed
therefore, it warrants recognition as a
as the general principles of war and for MOOTW principle of war
at the politico military level, while the current

Green Book 2019 41


Notwithstanding the numbers or form of

listing, the first and most important existing
principle of war, i.e., selection of aim must flow
out of the new principles. The new principles must
find an emphatic mention in the defence doctrines,
and the joint staff, as well as the individual service
training publications.
The arguments proffered in this work do not
claim to challenge existing doctrine or related
fundamental issues on the subject. However, they
do seek to provide additional food for thought
on the matter by outlining some new embryonic
ideas for doctrinal improvement. It is hoped
that the inputs (some general and some specific)
planning and conduct of most wars and conflicts, contained in this exposition shall assist those who
some additional/separate principles will always be are inclined to reinterpret or expand the existing
needed for nuclear, chemical or biological or other principles to win wars or at least to end them on a
specialised forms of wars and conflicts like COIN etc. favourable note, at an affordable cost.
Notes 6. Brodie Bernard, ‘War and Politics’, (New York; Mac Millan, 1973). P.446
1. Quoted by Liddell Hart; ‘Decisive Wars of History’, (London: G. Bell & Sons, 7. Gleaned from the ‘Principles of Strategy: Illustrated mainly from American
1929, First Edition) p.91. Campaigns’, Bigelow, John, Captain (New York: Green Wood Press, 1968).P224-
2. Quoted by Felix Gilbert; ‘Makers of Modern Strategy’, (USA: Princeton 233
University Press, 1973) p.85 and Michael Howard in ‘Clausewitz’, (New York: 8. www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/article titled, ‘The Three Trillion Dollar War’ by
Oxford University Press. 1983) P.24. Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes
3. Summarised from ‘On War’, edited by Michael Howard (New Jersey, Princeton 9. For a detailed description of the US Counter Insurgency Doctrine (COIN), refer
University Press, 1976) to; FM3-24, Chapter 1, p.28 & 29.
4. Quoted by Etienne Mantour, in the ‘Makers of Modern Strategy’, (USA:Princeton 10. The US COIN doctrine has been realistically analysed by Alexander Alderson,
University Press, 1973). P. 219 in the ‘Parameters’, published by US Army War College, Winter 2007-08.ps 42
5. Quoted by Michael Carver from ‘Introduction to Strategy’, by -44.
AndreBeaufre,(London: Faber and Faber, 1965) in the ‘Makers of Modern 11. This article includes revised passages from the author’s Book: Peace and War:
Strategy, Part Five, P788. Their Precepts and Principles, (Ferozesons . Pvt Ltd 2013, Lahore).
OF FOREIGN Barrister Ahmer Bilal Soofi is
former Federal Law Minister,

Advocate Supreme Court of
Pakistan and President
Research Society of
International Law, Pakistan

Lawfare is on a roll not only in the region but also at a global level and it is becoming manifest in new
evolving alliances between China & Russia on the one hand and the US & Israel on the other. The article
takes cognisance of this development from a legal lens, apart from reviewing Pakistan specific lawfare
moves. It puts spotlight on more recent indications of lawfare moves, particularly the one alluded to by
Indian foreign minister in her UNGA speech. It also refers to the legal push back by Iran, a state otherwise
a subject of serious lawfare sanction regime and the dividends that it could extract from a global judicial
forum against the most powerful state in the international system. Lawfare is now a reality and a unique
dimension of 4th Generation Warfare. It must, therefore, be factored into the security calculus of Pakistan
by the policy makers in the government so that the proper resources are allocated to effectively counter
the lawfare moves by our rival states.

Keywords: Lawfare, Sino-Russian Joint Declaration 2016, Kulbushan Jhadav, Comprehensive Convention
on International Terrorism (CCIT), Kashmir, RMI vs Pakistan

Green Book 2019 43

mundane and limited conception aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks or in imposing
of international law perceives it as sanctions on states including, recently on China,
merely a set of rules that constrain Russia, Iran and North Korea, the US has resorted
state autonomy and sovereignty to the tools and frameworks of international law to
through mandatory compliance. In my achieve its foreign policy aims.
study and practice of international law It developed, for instance, a white paper
stretching close to three decades, I have, however, justifying use of force and drone attacks against
come to appreciate a more encompassing view of Taliban moving targets in various states. The same
international law. On this view, which also finds was developed by a team of lawyers led by Mr Harold
favour among leading scholars including Harvard Ko, a distinguished professor of International
Law School’s David Kennedy, states actively make law and, later, legal advisor to state department.
tactical and strategic uses of international law as a At that point, I happened to be the Federal Law
vital instrument of national power to advance and Minister in a caretaker set up and commissioned a
safeguard their foreign policy goals and objectives. team of young lawyers to prepare a rebuttal of the
In both my writings and various public said white paper and the same was passed on to
speaking engagements in the last few years or so, I Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence.
have diligently advocated for Pakistan to adopt this With respect to Iran, the US has exercised
‘lawfare’ paradigm in the formulation of its foreign its sovereign right of consent under international
policy.1 The need for such law to enter into
an approach has never and withdraw from

been more urgent given international agreements.
the adoption of this The American military has coined Thus, when the Obama
paradigm by our rival a word: ‘lawfare’ – law as a weapon, law administration’s preferred
states to successfully as a tactical ally, law as a strategic asset, foreign policy position
undermine the pursuit of was conciliation over
our national interests in an instrument of war. The US (Military) continuing confrontation
the international arena. observes that law can often accomplish with Iran, the US used
Lawfare is a phrase what might once have been done with international treaty
which has found traction framework in spearheading
in international political bombs and missiles; seize and secure the efforts to conclude
discourse and which has territory, send messages about resolve
‘‘ the Joint Comprehensive
since been interpreted Plan of Action (JCPOA)
to refer to a variety of
and political seriousness, even break the Agreement with Iran in
different elements. will of a political opponent 2015 whereby Iran would
The phrase has, however, redesign, convert, and
been also formulated as a David Kennedy reduce its nuclear facilities
doctrine by Professor David Kennedy, who summed and accept the Additional Protocol of the IAEA in
up lawfare as: “The American military has coined a order to lift all nuclear-related economic sanctions,
word: ‘lawfare’ – law as a weapon, law as a tactical freeing up tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue
ally, law as a strategic asset, an instrument of war. The and frozen assets.
US (Military) observes that law can often accomplish The Trump administration, adopting a more
what might once have been done with bombs and hard-nosed foreign policy towards Iran, reversed
missiles; seize and secure territory, send messages the initiative of the previous administration by
about resolve and political seriousness, even break withdrawing the US from the JCPOA in 2018 and re-
the will of a political opponent”. Notably, with its imposing broad sanctions on Iran.
array of distinguished
international law
experts in both the
government and the
academia, the United
States has carefully
developed its capacity to
use international law in
this manner.
Whether justifying
its broad conception of
the right to use force
in self-defence in the

44 Green Book 2019

The two successive occupants of the White prioritise and engage with international law and its
House have, therefore, strategically utilised institutions stand to reap dividends in the conduct
international as well as US domestic law in opposing of their foreign relations.
ways in the pursuit of their respective foreign policy Perhaps taking their cues from Iran and Israel,
goals vis-à-vis Iran. the Gulf States are also increasingly resorting to
In response to these US lawfare moves, Iran international law to advance their political agendas
has employed its own counter-lawfare-moves. The in the international arena.
conclusion of the JCPOA itself was a successful Thus, in the wake of the diplomatic spat
counter-move by Iran to negate the complex web of between the Gulf States in 2017, Qatar has taken
UNSC sanctions crippling its economy. With respect the UAE to the ICJ. The Court has already granted
to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and the re- partial relief to Qatar in the form of provisional
imposition of sanctions upon it, Iran has made measures declaring certain acts of the UAE against
a counter-lawfare move by taking the US to the Qatar as discriminatory in contravention of the
International Court of Justice (ICJ). In the ongoing International Convention Eliminating Racial
Iran v. United States’ (Nuclear sanctions) case, Discrimination.
the ICJ has found jurisdiction in the matter and Russia and China, two of the five permanent
has already granted limited relief to Iran through members of the UNSC, besides emphasising
preliminary measures, exempting certain goods the indispensability of international law for the
from US sanctions on humanitarian grounds. conduct of foreign relations, reaffirmed their
The US has countered this by employing its commitment to it in 2016 in a Joint Declaration on
own lawfare move by terminating its 1955 Treaty of the Promotion and Principles of International Law.
Amity with Iran, which allowed the ICJ to exercise
jurisdiction in the instant case.

The US-Iran example offers an important
lesson for policymakers around the world – that The US-Iran example offers an
the United States is not alone in employing the important lesson for policymakers
doctrine of lawfare in its foreign relations. Besides
Iran; Israel, the Gulf states, India, Russia and around the world – that the United States
China have all adopted the lawfare paradigm and is not alone in employing the doctrine of
accordingly invested heavily in developing their lawfare in its foreign relations. Besides
international law capacity. Israel, through writings
of its international law experts and the decisions of Iran; Israel, the Gulf states, India, Russia
its judiciary, has for over two decades been at the and China have all adopted the lawfare
forefront in progressively developing international
paradigm and accordingly invested
law on targeted killings in a manner that optimises
its foreign policy agenda in the Middle East. Israel’s
heavily in developing their international
lawfare moves amply demonstrate that states that law capacity

The Declaration also, significantly, spells is of utmost importance that the provisions of
out Chinese and Russian counter-lawfare moves this universal treaty are applied consistently,
against US imposition of sanctions as well as with in such a manner that does not impair rights
respect to the interpretation of the United Nations and legitimate interests of States’ Parties and
Convention on Law of the Sea. does not compromise the integrity of the legal
Its pertinent paragraphs read as: regime established by the Convention.
── The Russian Federation and the People’s
Republic of China reiterate their full commitment
to the principles of international law as they are
reflected in the United Nations Charter, the 1970
Declaration on Principles of International Law
concerning Friendly Relations and Cooperation
among States in accordance with the Charter of
the United Nations. They are also guided by the
principles enshrined in the Five Principles of
Peaceful Coexistence.
── The principles of international law are
the cornerstone for just and equitable
international relations featuring win-win
cooperation, creating a community of shared Sino-Russian­­Joint Declaration on the Promotion and
future for mankind, and establishing common Principles of International Law (2016)
space of equal and indivisible security and
economic cooperation. This is a very vital development as two
permanent members of UNSC have formulated
── The Russian Federation and the People’s
Republic of China share the view that the fresh emphasis on international law principles of
principle of sovereign equality is crucial for non-intervention and few others. Further, both the
the stability of international relations. States states have jointly and formally snubbed unilateral
enjoy their rights on the basis of independence sanctions by US as being against the spirit of UN.
and on an equal footing, and assume their This is a bold move. In other words, both China and
obligations and responsibilities on the basis Russia are alienating US on its moves that dent rule
of mutual respect. States have the right to of international law. Pakistan will have to choose
participate in the making of, interpreting going with rule of international law approach that
and applying international law on an equal China and Russia has formulated through the joint
footing, and have the obligation to comply declaration.
with international law in good faith and in a I believe Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign
coherent and consistent manner. Affairs should examine the full contents of the
said declaration and consider aligning itself with
── The Russian Federation and the People’s
various specific positions that both countries have
Republic of China share the view that good
taken on several aspects of international law.
faith implementation of generally recognised
principles and rules of international law Most troublingly from the perspective of
excludes the practice of double standards Pakistan, India has been persistently executing
or imposition by some States of their will on well-planned lawfare moves in the international
other States, and consider that imposition of arena calculated and tailored to undermine
unilateral coercive measures not based on Pakistan’s policy positions and its global prestige
international law, also known as «unilateral and standing.
sanctions», is an example of such practice. Indian FM Sushma Swaraj’s insistence upon
The adoption of unilateral coercive measures the global adoption of a Comprehensive Convention
by States in addition to measures adopted on International Terrorism (CCIT) in her recent
by the United Nations Security Council can
defeat the objects and purposes of measures
imposed by the Security Council, and
undermine their integrity and effectiveness.
── The Russian Federation and the People’s
Republic of China emphasise the important
role of the 1982 United Nations Convention
on the Law of the Sea in maintaining the rule
of law relating to activities in the Oceans. It

46 Green Book 2019

Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj’s insistence on CCIT at
UNGA - A pre-meditated lawfare move against Pakistan

It has twice lobbied successfully with

the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)
Headquarters to get Pakistan grey-listed on
account of apparent deficiencies in its anti-
money laundering – combating the
financing of terrorism (CFT/AML) legal and
administrative framework.
More recently, it has been vigorously
pushing for the global adoption of the
Comprehensive Convention on International
India has been lobbying successfully with the Terrorism (CCIT), which if adopted, would
Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Headquarters to eviscerate the fine distinctions under
get Pakistan grey-listed international law between legitimate
freedom movements based on self-
determination and terrorist activity. India’s
remarks at the UNGA is a text book example of FM Sushma Swaraj’s remarks at the UNGA this
a pre-meditated lawfare move against year sums up this lawfare move against Pakistan:
Pakistan. Pakistan’s FATF grey-listing, the
Kulbhushan Jadhav case at the ICJ, India’s “Each year, for the last five years, India
objections over Diamer Bhasha Dam, and its has been arguing from this podium that
hardening stance over the Indus Waters lists are not enough to check terrorists and
Treaty (IWT) and the Mumbai attacks are their sponsors. We need to bring them to
further instances of such moves. accountability through international law.
However, Kulbhushan’s disclosures are In 1996, India proposed a draft document
startling evidence of interference by a third on CCIT at the UN. To date, that draft has
state and we need to position his disclosures in remained a draft, because we cannot agree
various global forums as they always on a common language. On the one hand
appreciate much better dossier containing we want to fight terrorism; on the other, we
material that is obtained pursuant to a cannot define it. This is why terrorists with a
legal process as opposed to material price on their head are celebrated, financed,
obtained from intelligence sources. and armed as liberation heroes by Pakistan.
I, therefore, appeal to this body to come to an
Therefore, the copies of his statements
agreement on CCIT as one of the necessary
given under provisions of Criminal Procedure
measures in a long-running war.”3
Code of Pakistan are more valuable and much
better received than general narration of facts or
episode from intelligence sources. Pakistan may Indian FM’s only new legal argument
want to not only provide statements but also the is about reminding the world to proceed with
provisions of laws under which they were the draft convention on international terrorism.
obtained. I have also already written This is interesting and it seems that she wants
extensively on Indian lawfare moves and to kick alive the debate that freedom fighters do
potential Pakistani counter-lawfare moves with not have the right to use force or alternatively
respect to the IWT.2 bring forth the point that everyone taking up
arms against the state is a terrorist. Pakistan
Perhaps the most insidious lawfare moves needs to prepare itself in advance to handle this
by India have been with respect to attempts to upcoming argument as it has also battled against
de-legitimise the Kashmiri indigenous struggle non-state actors using arms against the state.
for self-determination as terrorist activity Pakistan may wish to tie up the additional
sponsored by Pakistan.
In this context, India has quite deliberately

tried to shape as well as exploit the
evolving international law on terrorism in the Perhaps the most insidious lawfare
aftermath of 9 /11 terrorist attacks in a moves by India have been with
manner that aligns it in the maximum possible respect to attempts to delegitimise
manner with its policy positions on Kashmir. To
the Kashmiri indigenous struggle for
this end, India has managed to get Pakistani
based entities and individuals it deems inimical
self-determination as terrorist activity
to its interests in Kashmir listed on CTC terrorism sponsored by Pakistan
lists under UNSC Resolution 1373.

Green Book 2019 47


argument that when a freedom struggle is Pathankot probes, besides raising miscarriages of
recognised by UN and is long standing linking to a justice in the Samjhauta Express trials held in India.
territorial dispute, it is not comparable with use With respect to trials of Mumbai suspects in
of force by violent non-state actors. From a legal Pakistan, India has failed to provide any admissible
perspective, Indian FM’s showcasing this argument evidence required under Pakistani law for
in UNGA should kind of tip Pakistani policy makers conviction of these suspects. Despite Indian non-
in advance as to which way Indian Government plans cooperation in a trans-national crime, Pakistan has
to take the lawfare game. been making good faith efforts at great expense to its
India, through lawfare moves tying Giligit- exchequer for close to a decade to bring these trials
Baltistan to the broader territorial dispute over to a conclusion. It, however, cannot be expected to
Kashmir, has also been attempting to undermine side-step its domestic legal procedures to forcibly
Pakistan’s ability to construct Diamer-Bhasha Dam convict Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi and other suspects
by curtailing its financing o ptions. I nternational in Mumbai attacks.
lenders, like the Asian Development Bank and the Pakistan’s lawfare response to India’s so-
World Bank, have now conditioned any financing of called surgical strikes should entail exposing this
the dam upon no-objection certificates from India.4 pretense and its threats as a flagrant violation of
Cumulatively, all this not only highlights the settled principles of international law on non-
necessity for Pakistan to adopt its own counter-lawfare interference and against aggressive use of force
moves in these cases, but is also a clarion call to the enshrined in the UN Charter.
State to proactively and broadly utilise international Pakistan should cogently put India on notice
law to advance its own national interests and foreign that any such strikes or their threats thereof will
policy agenda. clearly constitute unlawful use of force against
From Pakistan’s point of view, lawfare means Pakistan granting it the legal right under Article
the use of international law to develop pressure 51 of the UN Charter to respond with force against
points on strategic issues in order to make political India in self-defence.
gains. Lawfare should be the State’s preferred With regards to getting off the FATF grey-
option over Kashmir, more so because all aspects of list, Pakistan should present a comprehensive
the Kashmir issue are essentially legal propositions. and well thought out plan to the FATF secretariat
It is a territorial dispute involving the interpretation encompassing legal and administrative reforms
of UN law and bilateral treaties, the Indian and necessary to comply with the FATF guidelines.
Pakistani constitutions, and holds many other legal
elements such as the implications of the exercise Former Director General Military
of continuing sovereignty by Pakistan over Azad Operations, Ranbir Singh aggressively
Jammu and Kashmir, not to mention the Modi claiming “Surgical Strike” across the
Line of Control in Kashmir
government’s attempts to invalidate or whittle down
Article 370 of the Indian constitution.
Pakistan, by writing to the UN Secretary
General, should also push for the establishment
of an inquiry commission over Kashmir as
recommended by the first e ver 4 9-page r eport
issued by the UN Human Rights Office, de tailing
gruesome human rights abuses by Indian forces in
Indian Occupied Kashmir. With respect to the status
of Giligit-Baltistan, Pakistan must forcefully assert
its legal linkage with the remaining territories of
Pakistan at all international fora.
Equally important, Pakistan should share The state should make efforts to replicate its
evidence of Indian sponsored terrorism in Pakistan previous successful efforts to get off similar watch
with the global community. Its counter-lawfare lists, most notably in moving up the US Human
strategy should highlight repeated Indian non- Trafficking Index in 2018 and in getting removed
cooperation on Mumbai trials as well as over Uri and from the US Intellectual Property Watch List in 2016.
A rare instance of Pakistan’s successful counter-
lawfare move is the ‘Republic of Marshall Island’
Indian top (RMI) vs Pakistan case at the ICJ, which is also a
court grants significant reminder that if the state can manage to
bail to Colonel
harness its indigenous international law expertise
linked to
Malegaon, and potential, it can achieve victories at the highest
Samjhauta forums in international law. In a landmark ruling in
48 Green Book 2019
2016, the ICJ, the United Nation’s top court, knocked
out the RMI case against Pakistan on ‘Obligations Since lawfare demands active
concerning Negotiations relating to Cessation of the participation in international fora,
Nuclear Arms’ Race and to Nuclear Disarmament,’
accepting Pakistan’s legal arguments that it lacked
Pakistan must make all efforts to win
the jurisdiction to proceed in the case any further memberships at various UN bodies,
on the merits. The ruling represents a historic first Commissions and Committees and
victory for Pakistan at the ICJ and formally brought
the RMI lawsuit against Pakistan to a conclusion get its nationals appointed as judges
after two and a half years. and arbitrators at international courts
and tribunals including the ICJ, the
International Tribunal on Law of the
Sea (ITLOS), and the Permanent Court
of Arbitration (PCA)

of other nuclear-weapons’ states by only Pakistan,

which is neither “an interested party” nor a party
“directly concerned” with obligations enshrined in
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
While accepting Pakistan’s legal arguments, the
In a text book lawfare move, the RMI had Court in its judgment especially noted the lack of a
originally filed applications before the ICJ in April legal dispute in the case and crucially affirmed that
2014 against all nine nuclear-weapons’ states Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not illegal under
including Pakistan but only lawsuits against international law.
Pakistan, India and the United Kingdom proceeded
to the jurisdiction stage as a consequence of their Moving Forward
qualified advance consent to the Court’s jurisdiction. Pakistan ought to integrate lawfare in the
In response to the RMI’s written pleadings on conduct of its foreign policy in an institutionalised
jurisdiction and admissibility issues, Pakistan’s manner. This crucially means that in addition to
legal team submitted a robust counter-response capacity building measures and lawfare formulations
arguing that the case should not proceed to the suggested in this article, the state should proactively
merits because Pakistan’s nuclear programme is a engage with international institutions to enable
matter of its national defence and security which itself to participate in the progressive development
falls exclusively within its domestic jurisdiction and of international law which safeguards its national
is, therefore, not to be called into question by any interests. Given the fast-paced and dynamic nature
court including the ICJ. of international law, issues that significantly threaten
Moreover, it was conveyed to the Court that our security and economic interests such as evolving
the RMI lacks the requisite standing to institute the international laws on autonomous weapons and
current proceedings since there is no dispute, let cyber warfare and the negotiations on WTO rules,
alone a legal dispute, that exists between the RMI urgently need careful scrutiny by international law
and Pakistan. This is manifested by the fact that experts.
the RMI has never suffered any damage caused Lastly, since lawfare demands active
by Pakistan either directly or indirectly, and by participation in international fora, Pakistan must
the lack of any formal or informal communication make all efforts to win memberships at various UN
initiated by the RMI with Pakistan until it filed its bodies, Commissions and Committees and get its
application in the ICJ Registry on 24 April 2014. nationals appointed as judges and arbitrators at
Pakistan’s written pleadings further stressed that international courts and tribunals including the ICJ,
the injury claimed by the RMI cannot be redressed by the International Tribunal on Law of the Sea (ITLOS),
compelling the specific performance in the absence and the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA).

Notes timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/full-text-of-sushma-swarajs-statement-at-
1. See Ahmer Bilal Soofi, Lawfare versus Warfare, DAWN, October. 25, 2014. un-general-assembly/articleshow/66009354.cms (last accessed on October. 7,
2. Ahmer Bilal Soofi, The Three-Basket Approach to IWT, DAWN, Janauary. 31, 2018).
2017. 4. (https://www.dawn.com/news/742060)(https://tribune.com.pk/story/514063/
3. SushmaSwaraj, Full Text of Speech at the UNGA (2018), available at: https:// diamer-bhasha-dam-world-bank-not-adb-presses-for-seeking-indian-noc/)

Green Book 2019 49


Salman Bashir is a former Foreign

Secretary of Pakistan, Ambassador to
Denmark, Lithuania, China, Mongolia
and High Commissioner of Pakistan to

Asia is now the centre stage of geo-politics; relations between major powers are slipping towards uncertainty,
competition and rivalry. Melt down of the global order. Societal changes across the globe impelled by
demography, generational shift, globalisation and technology. Strategies at China containment − smack
of a new cold war. Globalisation is irreversible. It is impelling deepening of global interdependence and
warrant international cooperation. Geo-politics cannot upend geo-economics. The concept of Indo-
Pacific as endorsed by the US brings India and Indian Ocean into emerging power equations. President
Trumps’ Afghanistan and South Asia strategy is a variant of a broader US’ Indo-Pacific policy. US’ policy
incoherence and contradictions are causing confusion and raise serious questions about US’ will and
ability to shore up global order. Trump’s world view is shaped by his business background and quest
for America’s national renewal. US will remain the primus inter pares and continue to wield influence
across the globe. Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is good for the world; an inclusive concept of
voluntary partnerships for development and win-win cooperation. Interests of US and China converge
over a broad spectrum. China has no interest in challenging the US’ preeminence. Rational way forward
for US and China is to cooperate and concert efforts for attaining shared goals. India is being consumed
by its misplaced ambitions and is misreading the global power dynamics. Pakistan’s geo-strategic
vulnerabilities are being overcome and converted into strength by CPEC. Pakistan is well situated to
delineate a CPEC Plus Vision for building concentric circles of stability, peace and development in our
region-Afghanistan and beyond. Real interests bind Pakistan and the US, in the Afghanistan context. There
are good reasons for reworking Pakistan − US partnership. New government in Pakistan has brought hope
for socio-economic transformation. Working the domestic agenda and stabilising external environment to
suit national interests must be a priority. Good relations with neighbours and all major powers is a must.
Need to eschew any unnecessary external liabilities. Centenary independence vision 2047 − a developed
Pakistan should inform and guide national endeavours.

Keywords: Geo-Strategy, Geo-Politics, Globalisation, Indo-Pacific, Asia-Pacific, CPEC

50 Green Book 2019


he centre of gravity of global politics has

shifted from west to east. Asia-Pacific is
the new locus of global strategic power
play. The rise of China, rejuvenation
of Russia and India’s growth potential
have compelled a re-think in the US
global strategy − China and Russia are now declared
strategic competitors/rivals and India a partner
of choice in the ‘China containment’ strategy. A
triangular power equation–US, China and India- is
shaping the geopolitics of the region.
Situated in the heart of Eurasia, Pakistan’s
destiny will be impacted by contemporary trends
and in turn Pakistan is destined to play a critical
role in determining future outcomes. Given its
history of close partnership with both, the US
and China, Pakistan is well positioned to make a
positive contribution to global peace, security and Unpredictable US foreign policy
Global society has
Global Disarray

undergone a profound
The melt down of The center of gravity of global transformation − impelled by
world order − signifies globalisation, demographic
an inflexion point in politics has shifted from west to and generational shifts
contemporary history − east. Asia-Pacific is the new locus and the unprecedented
made stark by the advent pace of technological
of global strategic power play. advancements. Systems
of President Trump on
the global scene. Anxiety The rise of China, rejuvenation of of politics, economics and
and uncertainty abound. Russia and India’s growth potential governance no longer match
US shaped the twentieth new requirements.
century world. However, it
have compelled a re-think in the Old tools of strategic
is now becoming difficult US global strategy-China and analysis and standard
to discern US’ policy Russia are now declared strategic prescriptions no longer
direction. Widespread apply. In a perceptive essay
competitors/rivals and India a title the ‘Big Shift’, Walter
lament on the fading away
of the liberal order and
partner of choice in the ‘China Russell Mead examines how
loss of the moral compass, American democracy fails
containment’ strategy its way forward to success.
to save, if not reinforce the
foundations of the international system, premised He notes that ‘the Information Revolution is
on the principles and purposes of the United disrupting the country’s social and economic order
Nations Charter, is a cause of anxiety. as profoundly as the Industrial Revolution did.

A triangular power equation – US, China and

India- is shaping the geopolitics of the region

Green Book 2019 51

Industrial Revolution − the most destructive wars
Western sea board of Eurasia shaped and the most unspeakable tyrannies in the history
the history of the world. Ascendency of our species − is to realise just how much peril
of the West, over several centuries, we face…Yet humans are problem solving animals.
We thrive on challenges…The good news and bad
exemplified by the Euro-Atlantic alliance news are perhaps the same: the American people,
since the Second World War was a sine in common with others around the world, have
qua non for global security as well as the opportunity to reach unimaginable levels
of affluence and freedom? But to realise, that
the ideals and values that underpin our opportunity, they must overcome some of the
civilisation. Its roots were in ancient hardest challenges humanity has ever known.
Greece, Rome and Christianity The treasure in the mountains is priceless, but the
dragon who guards it is fierce’.2
Western sea board of Eurasia shaped the
history of the world. Ascendency of the West, over
The ideologies and policies that fit American several centuries, exemplified by the Euro-Atlantic
society a generation ago are becoming steadily alliance since the Second World War was a sine qua
less applicable to the problems it faces today… non for global security as well as the ideals and
intellectual and policy elites, for the most part, are values that underpin our civilisation. Its roots were
too wedded to paradigms that no longer work, but in ancient Greece, Rome and Christianity. Waves
the populists, who seek to replace them, don’t have of globalisation generated by the intellectual,
real answers, either. It is, in many ways, a stressful technological and economic prowess of the
and anxious time to be alive. And that anxiety West impacted and transformed societies and
has prompted a pervasive sense of despair about institutions everywhere.
American democracy − a fear that it has reached a Asia has benefitted from these processes that
point of dysfunction and decay from which it will encompassed not only economy and trade but also
never recover’.1 This quote gives a sense of what organising principles of society and institutions-
is being felt in the US and more generally in the political pluralism, democracy, human rights, free
world. trade and capitalism.
Established systems do not work any longer. The triumph of liberalism over communism
The concepts and intellectual constructs have in the 1990s was a watershed in human history.
become outdated and out paced by the speed of As President Obama in delivering the Nelson
societal change. But where is the new thinking or Mandela lecture in Johannesburg noted, ‘at the
even new understanding of the phenomenon of end of the twentieth century, while some Western
‘change’. commentators were declaring the end of history
Mead further states ‘The challenge is immense. and the inevitable triumph of liberal democracy
The foundations of societies are quaking at home, and the virtues of global supply chain, so many
even as the international order threatens to missed signs of a brewing backlash…Look around.
splinter….The old answers in the old text books don’t Strong man politics are ascendant, suddenly,
seem to work anymore, the new answers haven’t whereby elections and some pretense of democracy
been discovered yet, and those who will someday are maintained − the form of it − but those in power
write new answers are still in primary school. To seek to undermine every institution or norm that
reflect on the upheavals that accompanied the gives democracy meaning….

52 Green Book 2019


In the West, you’ve got – right parties that a new age, where standard geo-political constructs
often times are based not just on platforms of have become unworkable? Is Globalisation
protectionism and closed borders but also on reversible?
barely hidden racial nationalism. Many developing Multilateral cooperation is a function
countries now are looking at China’s model of of ‘interdependence’. Unilateralism, narrow
authoritarian control, combined with mercantilist nationalism and what President Obama has
capitalism, as preferable to the messiness of repeatedly decried – ‘neo-tribalism’ have become
democracy. pervasive. Rise of xenophobia, intolerance, racism,
Social media – once seen as a mechanism and all the other signs and symptoms of populism
to promote knowledge and understanding and made legit by the ballot are indicative of the chaos
solidarity − has proved to be just as effective resulting from processes of societal transformation,
promoting hatred and paranoia and propaganda in nearly all parts of the world.
and conspiracy theories’.3 Democracy has tended to serve the rich
In an article in the New Yorker titled “Francis and powerful. The digital age has empowered
Fukuyama Postpones the End of History”, Louis individuals and made them more aware of the
Men and writes, ‘Fukuyama’s argument (back in context and contrasts of their own existence.
1989) was that, with the ‘Asymmetry’ in terms of
imminent collapse of the politics and economics is

Soviet Union, the last creating a lethal brew of
ideological alternative Social media – once seen as a social despondency if not
to liberalism had been mechanism to promote knowledge and revolt. Is this increasingly
eliminated. Fascism the new normal?
had been killed in the understanding and solidarity – has The fading away of
Second World War, and proved to be just as effective promoting the liberal era, may well
now Communism was
imploding. In states,
hatred and paranoia and propaganda prove to be a passing
phase. The US will
like China, that called and conspiracy theories remain the predominant
themselves Communist, power, it will undergo a
political and economic reforms were heading in the process of national renewal and continue to speed
direction of a liberal order. Twenty nine years later, ahead not only in military might but on the wings
it seems …that history has a few more tricks up its of technology, transforming our planet into a more
sleeve. It turns out that liberal democracy and free tightly knitted and thus highly interdependent
trade may actually be rather fragile achievements. community.
There is something out there that doesn’t like
liberalism, and is making trouble for the survival Unburdening of America
of institutions. Fukuyama thinks he knows what President Donald Trump has in a short span
that something is, and his answer is summed up of just two years rocked, if not demolished, the
in the title of his new book, “Identity: The Demand foundations of the international system. In official
for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment”. and think tank community in Washington DC
The demand for recognition, Fukuyama says, there are nuances and contradictions on the US
is the “master concept” that explains all the perspective on the world. However, the President
contemporary dissatisfactions with the global
liberal order… Present trends don’t continue. They
produce backlashes and reshufflings of the social
deck. The identities that people embrace today are
the identities their children will want to escape
from tomorrow. History is somersaults all the way
to the end’.4
Globalisation has brought about a fundamental
restructuring of the global economy-manufacturing
and services sectors have moved east to Asia.
Financial sectors were hit by the 2008 recession.
Asia’s rise was a consequence of a number of
factors – demography, technology and nature of
Are these transformations on a civilisational
scale? Is ‘confrontation’ the perennial theme in the
rise and fall of nations? Are we now at the cusp of

Green Book 2019 53


has taken the lead in reframing US’ world view and development — and the norms and values
and consequently the view of the world about the associated therewith in terms of the free world or
United States. liberal order. It can perhaps be better construed
Defining instances of the Trumpian world view
were the G-7 Summit in Quebec on 8-9 June 2018,
Brussels NATO Summit on 11-12 July 2018, President
Trumps visit to the UK on 13 July 2018, the Helsinki
Summit with President Putin on 16 July 2018 and
the meeting with Kim Jong Un of North Korea, in
Singapore on 12 June 2018.
These encounters revealed an abandoning of
standard constructs about alliances and interests-
a series of deliberate knocks to signal change in
US’ thinking about the world, which is, of course,
hugely consequential.
Commenting on Trump’s behaviour at the G-7,
CNN Editor — at large — stated, “in space of less
than 48 hours, the President of the United States
attacked the leader of Canada as ‘very dishonest
and weak’ and praised the leader of North Korea for
working toward a deal on the Korean peninsula…. President Donald Trump slammed Canadian Prime
The extent to which Trump has clashed with long- Minister Justin Trudeau as ‘very dishonest and
time allies (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, weak’, what the White House called a ‘great meeting’
Australia and on and on and on) is remarkable. As between the two leaders during G-7 Summit 2018
is his willingness to publicly explode the usually as creative destruction — to usher a new wave
staid-managed international gatherings like the for re-establishing US’ primacy by carrying to the
G7. His allies have — and will cheer his name ultimate extreme the notion of US ‘exceptionalism’.
calling and his long-distance tendency toward In this sense, US is no longer a status quo power.
confrontation…The US has been the steadying
The perception of unburdening of the US has
force in international affairs for decades…If the
had profound repercussions everywhere and,
US no longer plays that role — or shrinks from it
especially, in the Asia-Pacific region. The US’ allies
in any meaningful way — the balance of the world
in the Pacific such as Japan and South Korea as well
is shaken and changed. And those changes are
as among the ASEAN Ten have read the tea leafs.
unpredictable — and not necessarily beneficial to
These countries, given their economic interests
the United States. Power and vacuums and power
with China and uncertainty now associated with
and shifts are filled rapidly in politics and foreign
the US security guarantees, are now re-positioning
Under the banner of ‘America First’, Trump
A good indicator is the net flow of investments
seeks national self-renewal. This is akin to the
and trade between Japan and China and South
Chinese Communist Party slogan of ‘national
Korea and China. India has some $85 bn of trade
rejuvenation’. But the means and methodologies
with China. The financial math does not match up
are strikingly different. It would be a folly to read
with geopolitical posturing. Money trails are fairly
Trump’s policy as merely erratic or naive. This
good indicators of real interests.
is a deliberate effort at ‘unburdening’ the US
from responsibilities it had assumed as the sole On the other hand, China has tried hard to play
super power in guarding world peace, security by the old rule book, demonstrated its adherence
to the established global order. It is evident that
the global order suited China’s national interests.

In this sense, China is a status quo power. It is
In official and think tank community not interested in challenging US’ primacy but in
pursuing its own economic growth trajectory.
in Washington DC there are nuances and
In face of US’ retreat, China has been assuming
contradictions on the US’ perspective on a greater share of responsibility with respect to
the world. However, the President has maintaining global order and stepping in where
US is unable or unwilling to support existing
taken the lead in reframing US’ world
view and consequently the view of the
international structures — such as the UN and
Bretton Woods system. The world sees China’s role
world about the United States as benevolent and beneficent, as it is increasingly

54 Green Book 2019


the only one that is in a position to roll out funds In face of US’ retreat, China has
and technology for development on the basis of
mutually beneficial partnerships. been assuming a greater share
of responsibility with respect to
US and Indo-Pacific: Ramping up China maintaining global order and stepping
The US’ Indo-Pacific strategy has a strong
in where US is unable or unwilling to
military dimension. It builds on President Obama’s support existing international structures
‘pivot’ to Asia by reinforcing its Pacific Command ‘‘
– such as the UN and Bretton Woods

for the coming decades, such as the Belt and Road

Initiative…Trump attack on “Made in China 2025”…
(it) does not alter the fact that the world’s second
largest economy is relentlessly climbing up the
manufacturing ladder. Eventually it will overtake
the US in technological innovation…China’s
by encompassing the Indian Ocean. The concept of military “adventurism’ allows the Pentagon to
Quad — Japan, India, Australia and the US — was come up with a Space Force. China is also barred
revived in 2017. Politically, the Pacific ring is being from investing in US industries related to national
aligned more closely with US- China containment security…And China is increasingly depicted
approach. However, economic strands, are missing. as a “malign” — the buzzword of choice that
By walking away from the Trans Pacific Partnership makes Trump, in this case, fully aligned with the
(TPP), the US has left its partners wondering about industrial-military-security-think tank complex.’6
the direction and substance of US policy.
India’s Strategic Dilemmas
India had tried to cozy up to the US for its own
reasons. In its quest for global respectability and
power it desperately wanted US’ support to become
a full member of the Nuclear Suppliers Club and a
Permanent member of the Security Council. More
important was India’s desire to get the US on its
side in its perennial hostility towards Pakistan.
It had hoped for US support in isolating Pakistan
and to de-legitimise the freedom movement of the
Kashmiri people for the exercise of their right to
self-determination, in accordance with UN Security
Donald Trump Just after pulling the US out of TPP Council resolutions.
US promised India high technology and
Firing of the first few rounds of tariffs by the sophisticated weapon systems. US also sensed
US in a trade war with China has compounded that India was a large market and thus relevant
economic uncertainty with profound consequences to US’ economic interests. It has declared India
for global economy. The US’ ‘go it alone’ attitude is as a major defence partner and signed logistics
somewhat disconcerting for its allies, both across and basing agreements. The US’ decision to place
the Atlantic and Pacific. Chinese access to high India in tier one for receiving high technology
technology is also being restricted. The ostensible defence equipment, exempting it from licensing
purpose is to balance trade and retard China’s requirements, is another shot in the arm of the
economic growth and technological progress. China containment strategy.
In an article in the Asia Times titled ‘Sun Tzu From the US’ perspective, what matters is the
and the art of fighting a trade war,’ Pepe Escobar Indian Ocean. The maritime component of global
writes about the US triggered trade war with China strategic play in which US and Indian navies could
and states, ‘It will be nasty and Trump would cooperate in ensuring freedom of navigation and if
be foolish to underestimate Xi and the resolve required choking of sea links for strategic supplies
of China…the Beijing leadership identifies… bound for China. Succinctly, Pan-Eurasian-ism vs
in the Chinese culture terminology, as the three Atlantic-ism seems to be the essential dynamics of
threats…A threat to their foreign policy concept geo-politics today.

Green Book 2019 55


India consistently signalled its readiness From the US’ perspective, what
to play the role of a junior proxy for the US on
the grand Asian-Pacific chess board. But lately matters is the Indian Ocean. The
maritime component of global strategic
play in which US and Indian navies
could cooperate in ensuring freedom of
navigation and if required choking of
sea links for strategic supplies bound
for China. Succinctly, Pan -Eurasianism
vs Atlanticism seems to be the essential ‘‘
dynamics of geo-politics today

The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),

seeks to connect Eurasia and Africa into a cohesive
Indian Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence economic whole. It is premised on inclusivity,
Minister Nirmala Sitharaman held crucial talks with Former voluntary participation, mutual benefit and win-
US Secretary of Defence James N. Mattis and US Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo – New Delhi (6 September 2018) win cooperation. While rejuvenation of the Chinese
nation is the Chinese dream, the greater dream is
Indian policy establishment is faced with strategic creating a community of shared destiny. China has
dilemmas. China has demonstrated immense created the mechanisms and the infrastructure for
‘strategic patience’ and appears to be succeeding realising these worthy goals.
in impelling a rethink in New Delhi. Prime Minister This visionary initiative of President Xi Jinping
Narendra Modi has been to China twice (Wuhan holds the promise of bringing about a historic
and Qingdao in April and June 2018) and met transformation in the global economic and political
President Xi Jinping also at the BRICS summit in landscape. As a concept and in its working, this
Johannesburg in July 2018. The Communiqué of represents an original and most consequential
the India-China Informal Summit at Wuhan inter
alia states that “the simultaneous emergence of
India and China as two large economies and major
powers with strategic and decisional autonomy has
implications of regional and global significance.
They shared the view that peaceful, stable and
balanced relations between India and China will
Chinese Dream
be positive factor for stability amidst current global The Chinese dream, after all, is the dream of the people.
uncertainties.”7 India realises that it needs to take We must realise it by closely depending on the people.
the cover of ‘strategic autonomy’ to play (and We must incessantly bring bene its to the people.
benefit from all sides) as a balancer. There are clear
indicators of its warming up to China. This rethink
is also occasioned by uncertainties about the US
and its global role.

Rise of China
On the Eurasian island, new centres of economic
development are conferring vigour and vitality to the
global economy. The truly inspiring development Realising the great
has been the magnificent transformation of China
renewal of the
into the second largest economy of the world. We are
witnessing the renaissance of the Chinese civilisation. Chinese nation is
It is not only in terms of economic statistics but in the greatest
thought, philosophy, arts and crafts. China has a dream for the Chinese
unique reading of global history and this imbues nation in modern history.
it with long-term perspectives. For the people
of Pakistan China’s rise is a source of immense
inspiration and satisfaction. ---- quotes from Chinese President Xi Jinping

56 Green Book 2019


contribution of China to the future of mankind. BRICS and other enterprises are directed towards
The BRI seeks to convert the Eurasian land mass consolidating and promoting development across
into a single economy by interconnecting it with continents.
a network of roads, railroads, pipelines, ports,
airports, and telecommunications links, and, based Pakistan and China
on these, to create a series of development corridors
Pakistan takes great pride in its friendship with
containing large zones of productive economic
China. This is a time tested all weather partnership
activity and, ultimately, prosperity. Supplementing
and friendship. The China Pakistan Economic
this essentially continental development is a
Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the BRI, is only
maritime component (the “Road”), aimed at
one dimension of the concrete manifestation of this
investing and fostering collaboration in Southeast
mutually beneficial friendship.
Asia, Oceania, and North Africa, through several
contiguous bodies of water – the South China Sea, Pakistan is developing high grade infra-structure
the South Pacific Ocean, and the Indian Ocean. The with Chinese assistance – Gwadar Port, roads,
Polar access Route is also being worked. Chinese bridges, rail tracks and special economic zones.
position on all international issues was enunciated
on the basis of principles.
China did not ask for a re-writing of the rules
and/or principles of international relations.
It wanted everyone to ‘own’ and ‘live by’ the
accepted norms and principles. China’s voice at
international forums has been a ‘moral’ voice.
China has scrupulously eschewed power politics,
hegemony and has stood for the rights of the under
privileged and poor in the Third World.
With the accretion in China’s economic
might, we have seen the practice of the principles
of sovereign equality, non-interference, mutual
interest and mutual benefit getting even more
pronounced in China’s dealing with its neighbours
and partners in the world.
China is today the number one economy of Agricultural, energy and industrial cooperation have
the world in terms of purchasing power parity and been prioritised. China-Pakistan cooperation is for
its GDP in nominal terms is projected to overtake development and not directed against any country.
that of the US in the next few years. China has In fact, the entire region and the world can benefit
been taking practical steps to build peace and from CPEC.
shared prosperity. It leads the way, especially in China’s outreach to the world, especially to
cooperative enterprises such as SCO and in multiple its neighbours, is consequential. China has ample
regional and inter-regional processes such as Asia- number of times stated that the world is big enough to
Europe Meeting (ASEM). accommodate the aspirations of all. The reach out to
China’s economic strength is being utilised to India is an example of Chinese sagacity and strategic
set up financial institutions to promote economic patience. China sees its southern neighbours as
growth in the Asian region and beyond. The important for its own stability, peace and prosperity.
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), It has always advocated peaceful resolution of
the Silk Road Fund, the SCO Development Fund, Pakistan-India disputes. It proceeds from a position
of principle, something that is increasingly rare in
contemporary times.

Pakistan would view an improvement in China-
This visionary initiative of President India relations as a positive development. India’s
Xi Jinping holds the promise of bringing opposition to the BRI is unfortunate. The BRI is a
about a historic transformation in concrete manifestation of globalisation. It is not about
the East wind prevailing over the West. Corridors
the global economic and political and connectivity are two ways. Hence by definition
landscape. As a concept and in its neutral by way of geo-political significance.
working, this represents an original ‘‘ Pakistan’s stands to benefit from the BRI
and most consequential contribution of and CPEC. The long-term vision that would make
China to the future of mankind perfect sense for Pakistan is that CPEC extends
further in all directions.

Green Book 2019 57


CPEC Plus vision would see the incorporation Both India and Pakistan need to overcome their
of Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey and the Gulf States mental blocks about each other. Pakistan’s Asian
on the one hand and Central Asia to Russia on calculus does not factor India. Similarly, for Indian
the other. CPEC, as a BRI adjunct would extend to policy makers, Pakistan does not exist in their
Africa. It could also leap east towards India, if India global strategic calculus. Both Pakistan and India
could reconcile to Pakistan’s existence as ‘equals’ have confined themselves to merely ‘managing’
and agree to resolve peacefully all disputes. their relations in a narrow band. It is tedious,
Drawing in extra regional powers to contain or exacting and demanding. Shorn of imagination
countenance the rise of China by re-inventing the or creativity, it is for diplomats, a well-rehearsed
age of bloc politics will not only be counterproductive exercise that has been played out numerous times
but also prove to be unworkable. Concepts of the bilaterally and at the UN.
Quad or alliance of ‘maritime democracies’ based Both India and Pakistan need to realise that
on geo-political considerations, are notions that considering each other as distant-abroad is not a
will only stall, albeit temporarily, the Eurasian viable option. The deliberate disruption of SAARC
dynamics of win-win cooperation for stability, process has eviscerated the hopes for emergence
predicated on shared prosperity. of a South Asian stream in the story of Asia’s
rise. Classic geo-political power play and worn-
IMPORTANT CONCLUSIONS out themes and notions seeking extra-regional
No Zero Sums: US – China/ Pakistan – India intervention, to fill-in the balance of power gaps,
are indications of this sad reality.
It is a mistake to consider China-US relations
India’s declared policy is to ‘isolate’ Pakistan.
as a zero-sum game. Despite the US Security and
It not only opposes but is actively trying to subvert
Defence Strategies and the Nuclear Posture Review,
the fact of huge interdependence between US and CPEC. India did not participate in the BRI Summit
China cannot be ignored. Russia’s rejuvenation as in Beijing and remains staunchly opposed to the
politically consequential entity on the Eurasian BRI. The China containment theme underlying
continent and its cooperative endeavours with India-US Alliance and Defence Partnership could
China to stabilise Eurasia constitutes an important introduce a new cold war in South Asia. This will
factor in the emerging global scenario. prove to be hugely detrimental to the interests of
this region. A frigid winter will descend and lives of
From North Korea to Afghanistan, all pressing
billion plus people will be jeopardised.
issues require China-US-Russia cooperation. In
Pakistan’s immediate vicinity such cooperation Such short-sighted approaches will not
would contribute to stabilising the situation in succeed and prove to be self-defeating. One,
Afghanistan. The ongoing processes, for peace Pakistan will not allow CPEC to be disrupted at any
and national reconciliation in Afghanistan, could cost. Two, by opposing BRI, India loses a precious
pick up momentum if a collaborative approach opportunity for its own development. Three, BRI
is devised to prioritise economic and social is already a reality. Eurasia has been connected
development of Afghanistan. by road and rail links. The East Asian and Pacific
The challenge for Afghanistan and Pakistan is states are supportive. Four, India may cut itself
to convert their respective strategic vulnerabilities from the Eurasian development mainstream. Five,
into strength. This has started to happen with the notion of contest for the dominance of the
the ongoing progress in CPEC related projects Indian Ocean Region is far-fetched, archaic and
in Pakistan. It will be fortified by economic mainly academic.
development and peace in Afghanistan. Despite the disputed border, China has
Unfortunately, Pakistan-India have remained continued to urge India to join its endeavours for
in a tense stand-off. Both are nuclear weapon economic development, across continents and
states. Regrettably, India has closed avenues for de- sought cooperative relations. India’s admission in
escalation by blocking mechanisms of engagement the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a
and dialogue. The peaceful resolution of the Jammu testimony to China’s maturity and sagacity.
and Kashmir dispute is the key to unblocking the Pakistan has been able to maintain a relatively
potential of win-win cooperation between Pakistan stable power equation with India at the strategic
and India. and conventional planes. The conflict simmers,

‘‘ Concepts of the QUAD or alliance of ‘maritime democracies’ based on geo-political

considerations, are notions that will only stall, albeit temporarily, the Eurasian dynamics
of win-win cooperation for stability, predicated on shared prosperity

58 Green Book 2019


however, at the sub-conventional levels. The Indian
campaign to foment insurgency and terrorism in
The China containment theme
Balochistan is a deeply disturbing example of the underlying India-US alliance and
new dimensions of the bitter stand-off. Defence partnership could introduce a
All this is wholly unnecessary. Pakistan is not new cold war in South Asia. This will
in competition with India but would not succumb prove to be hugely detrimental to the
to intimidation or hegemony. Pakistan would like
to develop normal relations with India, on equal interests of this region. A frigid winter
terms. A meaningful resumption of dialogue and will descend and lives of billion plus
settlement of Jammu and Kashmir dispute would people will be jeopardised
liberate the South Asia from the stranglehold of
enmity that has sapped its strength and vitality.

Pakistani Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi meets US Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo – State Department, Washington (2 October 2018)

CPEC Plus Vision Pakistan and the US: Convergences

CPEC will become the anchor for extending Pakistan and the US have a long history of
concentric circles of stability, peace and cooperation. Unfortunately, the relations are
developments in our greater region. The Vision strained for now, primarily over the Afghanistan
CPEC-Plus can become the defining nomenclature issue. Pakistanis have a lingering sense of betrayal
for bringing the benefits of win-win partnerships and feel that US is trying to scapegoat Pakistan for
and to realise the dividends of China’s economic the failure of its mission in Afghanistan. On the other
development and the promise of an Asian century hand, some sections in the US policy community
to our region. are venting their frustration over alleged Pakistani
CPEC Plus together with revived regional cover to the Afghan Taliban namely the Haqqanis.
cooperation in South Asia could have significant There is an ever-widening communication gap.
positive effects for the economic and social Inter-agency processes in DC and Islamabad
development of the region as a whole. remain dead locked on determining the best way

Green Book 2019 59


forward, both with respect to Afghanistan and the
US-Pakistan relations.
An important aspect of changing
The US Administration’s Afghanistan and US policy options on Afghanistan is
South Asia strategy announced in August 2017 was the correct decision to see this issue
construed as a variant of its Indo-Pacific Policy. separately and not link it to the Indo-
President Trump’s own instincts were to withdraw Pacific Strategy. This would make
US troops from Afghanistan but he was persuaded
by the generals to persist with what was a costly it possible for other neighbours of
and militarily, an unwinnable venture. The South Afghanistan, such as China to be more
Asia Strategy seeks to ratchet up pressure on actively involved in providing support
Pakistan, recognises India’s role in Afghanistan, for building the economic foundations
inter alia provides for an increase of US troop levels
in Afghanistan, and refers to a ‘conditions-based’ for sustained peace
approach to Afghanistan.
Viewed from Islamabad, adding India and
China factors would have resulted in making An important aspect of changing US’ policy
Afghanistan a ‘forever’ victim of the new games options on Afghanistan is the correct decision to
on the Asian chessboard. However, the US policy see this issue separately and not link it to the Indo-
position on Afghanistan has seen a notable Pacific Strategy. This would make it possible for
evolution. Angling for a political settlement, the other neighbours of Afghanistan, such as China to
US Administration has signalled readiness for be more actively involved in providing support for
direct talks with the Afghan Taliban, including on building the economic foundations for sustained
the question of US troop presence thus meeting peace.
key Taliban conditions for a negotiated end to over The Afghan Taliban should respond positively
seventeen years of war. to the political signals from Washington, Kabul and
It is now evident that the war is unwinnable Islamabad and opt for moving forward from direct
and a military outcome is not possible. It would contacts to formal talks with the US. The Taliban
be to President Trump’s credit that he agrees to need to transform themselves into a political
strike a deal with the Taliban for durable peace and entity. Their resilience, if not battlefield gains need
stability in Afghanistan. to be converted into political capital. But what is
Indeed, a political settlement would bring more important is to keep in view the imperative
lasting credit to President Trump politically and need for making Afghanistan a united, sovereign,
personally. It will be welcomed by the Afghans and independent and peaceful state, respecting
the region. After a long time, there is a convergence the rights and aspirations of all its citizens and
of interests of the US, Pakistan and the Taliban contributing to regional peace and development.
on core issues regarding Afghanistan, which is Pakistan and the US need to work closely for the
more importantly super imposed by the will and success of peace in Afghanistan. Other regional
aspirations of the Afghan people for peace. states would also stand to benefit. Pakistan views
Pakistan shares US concerns that Afghanistan US presence in Afghanistan as a factor of stability.
must never again become a safe haven for Moreover, we are keen to see US succeed in
international terrorists. The presence of ISIS is as Afghanistan. This is a major point that is somehow
much a concern for the US as for Pakistan and the lost on the DC establishment. It entirely possible
Afghan National Unity Government. The Afghan for Pakistan and the US to find ways to bring
Taliban are strongly opposed to ISIS and thus a about an Afghanistan end state, that is entirely
four-way convergence of interests would make it in consonance with the aspirations of the Afghan
possible to join efforts for neutralising terrorism in people and serves interests of all three-namely US,
this part of the world. Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Pakistan has been making extraordinary Pakistan’s new administration led by Prime
efforts to repair relations with Afghanistan. The Minister Imran Khan has signalled building of
Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa mutually beneficial relations with the US. Pakistan
has undertaken several visits to Kabul. wishes to prioritise its economic development and
The Afghan-Pakistan Action Plan is derived thus is interested in improving relations with all
from broad agreement on the way forward. of its neighbours. With Afghanistan, Imran Khan
Specific steps have been taken to set up Ground has spoken about tranquil and open borders and
Coordination Centres and post liaison officers on high priority to peace, which is indispensable for
both sides to coordinate efforts against terrorists peace in Pakistan. With India, he has signalled a
and unauthorised crossings. determined effort to improve relations including

60 Green Book 2019


normalising trade. A peaceful and progressive that the new government will correct course
South Asia, well integrated economically would domestically and in foreign affairs to suit national
open huge prospects for development and offer interests.
economic opportunities for the world. Working the domestic agenda must remain
The corporate sector from across the globe a priority. A stable and conducive external
could be incentivised to participate in multi- environment is absolutely essential for this
national CPEC projects and work the Central-South purpose. Good relations with all major powers,
Asia resources and growth opportunities for profit. neighbours and eschewing unnecessary external
Incidentally, this happens to be the view of China as liabilities will enable Pakistan to go forward
well. Renewed efforts for bringing about conceptual economically and socially. The governance needs
clarity and congruity between the US and Pakistan to be fixed and institutions rebuilt.
and other important stakeholders in Asia-Pacific It is heartening to see the real issues now coming
could open new horizons for sustainable peace and to the fore of State’s priorities. A futuristic vision
development. of Pakistan becoming a moderately developed
A high degree of optimism is sweeping across country by 2047, the centenary of independence
Pakistan with the people hopeful and confident must inform and guide national endeavours.

‘‘ Pakistan’s new administration led by Prime Minister Imran Khan has signalled
building of mutually beneficial relations with the US. Pakistan wishes to prioritise
its economic development and thus is interested in improving relations with all of its
neighbours. With Afghanistan, Imran Khan has spoken about tranquil and open borders
and high priority to peace, which is indispensable for peace in Pakistan. With India, he
has signalled a determined effort to improve relations including normalising trade
Notes 5. CNN POLITICS, ‘The absolute chaos of Donald Trump’s G7 meeting, Analysis
1. Mead, Walter Russells, The Big Shift, Foreign Affairs, May/June 2018 issue. by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at large, 11 June 2018
2. ibid 6. Asia Times, Sun Tzu and the art of fighting trade war, Pepe Escobar, August 23,
3. The New Yorker. The Nelson Mandela Lecture, Barack Obama, July 18 2018. 2018.
4. The New Yorker, Francis Fukuyama Postpones The End of History, Menand 7. Ministry of External Affairs New Delhi, India-China Informal Summit at
Louis, September 3, 2018. Wuhan, April 28, 2018


Brigadier Kamal Azfar is serving in Lieutenant Colonel Wasif Mahmood

Pakistan Army is serving in Pakistan Army

This paper discusses the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) long-term infrastructural project as
a major part of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) the major global initiative by the Chinese government,
scheduled to complete by 2030. CPEC is a joint project that Beijing and Islamabad agreed to finance
through Chinese investments utilising investment loans largely by Chinese financial institutions;
nevertheless, Pakistan will also be responsible for investing approximately 15 billion dollars on its
own in the process. While the project has been welcomed by Greater Eurasia (including Russia, Iran,
and Central Asia) besides the United Kingdom and Western European Countries, albeit vehement
opposition by India. Paper carries out realistic appraisal of CPEC with respect to its anticipated social,
demographic, economic and legal implications for Pakistan with a view to proffer viable strategy for
optimising the benefits from this project. It highlights the opportunities, challenges and the impact
that this mega project will likely have to the existing socioeconomic infrastructure, job opportunities,
poverty level index, and regional peace and security.

Keywords: CPEC, BRI, Game Changer, Challenges and Opportunities, Infrastructure Development,
Labour Force, Socio-economic, Regional Peace and Security

62 Green Book 2019




Global Environment
hina-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),
being the flagship project of Belt and America First policy has forced many countries
Road Initiative (BRI), has been rightly to recalibrate their approach towards USA and its
termed as a potential game changer for unpredictable foreign policy choices. Latest US
Pakistan due to its potential of being the policy revision for Afghanistan and South Asia adds
harbinger of economic, demographic, confusion and uncertainty to an already complex and
political and social progress for the country. As per delicate situation.
the vision of Chief of Army Staff, “CPEC is the grand
manifestation of the deep-rooted ties between China USA views CPEC as Chinese geo-political riposte
and Pakistan. Much larger than its bilateral benefits, to hedge against her Pivot to Asia policy. US does not
CPEC is indeed a corridor of peace & prosperity, not favour CPEC because it offers a back door to China
only for the people of Pakistan and China but also right at the mouth of the Persian Gulf and can facilitate
for the region and beyond. It will bind all these her trade of petrochemicals and other commodities
nations together and bring about an economic through Pakistan using ports in the Persian Gulf and
transformation through enhanced connectivity’’.1 Africa.
CPEC needs to be taken as an environment; President Putin has already expressed interest in
not only as a port, some roads and projects etc. It is CPEC as a regional connectivity option and has been
going to be an amalgamation of internal, regional
successful in obtaining Chinese investment in Russian
and trans-regional connectivity and merger. CPEC
will, therefore, affect Pakistan in every domain Federation. Russia may further its cooperation with
which may have long lasting social, demographic China by getting on board CPEC project besides other
and economic implications. On the other hand, the bilateral trade and commerce initiatives with China,
legal aspects of CPEC also need to be considered to which in turn can result in better security for the
protect Pakistan’s interests in the future. region.2

‘‘ CPEC is the grand manifestation of the deep-rooted ties between China and
Pakistan. Much larger than its bilateral benefits, CPEC is indeed a corridor of peace &
prosperity, not only for the people of Pakistan and China but also for the region and
General Qamar Javed Bajwa, COAS Pakistan Army

Green Book 2019 63


China. Furthermore, continued diplomatic pressure

from USA is also likely to indirectly force Iran to
enhance her relations with Russia and China.
Internal Security situation in South and Central
Balochistan is not optimal. For CPEC to succeed,
these regions would have to be made fully secure
and peaceful for transportation of cargo along
national highways passing through these areas.
A host of narratives among segments of society
against both China and Pakistan viz CPEC are
noticeable ranging from “What has CPEC given us
but more poverty, misery and loss of our lands?”,
“People of Gwadar are going to be replaced by
Russia has shown interest in CPEC

Japan is firmly behind Indian initiative to open

up a route to CARs through Iran and Afghanistan.
This is indicative of lack of Japanese interest in
CPEC owing to historic animosity with China.
Resultantly, Japan is likely to maintain somewhat
neutral outlook viz a CPEC projects.
USA views China’s growing economic and
military power with concern and wants to affect
its containment. However, China has adopted
a prudent approach in handling America’s India sees CPEC as a security threat
provocative questioning of One China policy and
other contentious issues. China is expected to act outsiders due to CPEC”. Unless addressed properly
strictly in accordance with its perceived national in all domains, such propaganda/narratives can
interest’s sans direct confrontation with the US to pose problems for CPEC going forward.
the extent possible. There is broad national consensus across the
political spectrum on friendly relations with China
Regional and Domestic Environment
and importance of CPEC as the main engine of
India views the development of Gwadar Port by growth for Pakistani economy in the near future.
China as a security threat. In order to stall CPEC’s
progress, she is helping Iran develop Chabahar Port CPEC Projects Perceived to Affect Social
as a strategic counter weight to Gwadar, improving and Demographic Domains
its diplomatic and trade relations with Pakistan’s
── Population. A population of 194 million can
traditionally friendly countries in Middle East.
provide very rich human resource for CPEC
After some hiatus, bilateral relations b/w projects. If this resource is properly equipped
Pakistan and Iran portend a positive tone. Iran and utilised, it likely to multiply dividends of
also has strengthened bilateral trade relations with CPEC manifold.

── Labour Force and Employment. In Pakistan, which is only sufficient for the residents of
32.3% of the population constitutes labour force Gwadar. No worthwhile project is expected in
having significant bearing on the productive this domain in the country.

Economic Perspective
── Pakistan’s State of the Economy. Pakistan’s
economy is broadly divided into three main
sectors i.e. agriculture, industry and services.
In order to ascertain performance of various
components of the economy over the past
five years, an incisive sectoral analysis of
Pakistan’s economy has been carried out.
Each of these is being discussed in ensuing
── Rate of Inflation.4 Inflation rate remained
4.09% during last year while the volume
of Pakistan’s economy surpassed US $300
── Fiscal Deficit. Fiscal deficit has also registered
a decrease. From last year, when it was 4.6 %,
fiscal deficit has been brought down to 4.2 %.
── Agriculture Sector. Agriculture sector
recorded a growth of 3.46 % in FY 2017 as
capacity (Crude Activity Rate). All these CPEC compared to 0.27 % the previous year.
projects (especially energy and infrastructure
ones) will provide huge employment
opportunities for the people, especially for 2012-13 8.2 %
unskilled labour.
── Education. Having official literacy rate of
58%, total 245,387 educational institutes of
all types (primary schools to universities) 2013-14 5.5%
and student teacher ratio of 29.45 to 1 (42357.5
thousand students and 1437.8 thousand
teachers),3 warrants colossal efforts in this
domain. While analysing CPEC projects, it is 2014-15 5.3%
evident that this domain has been seriously
neglected which is substantiated from the fact
that out of 58 x planned projects, there are
2015-16 4.6%
only two projects in the field of education.
── Health
00 With entire world including China moving
2016-17 4.2%
towards green energy, establishment of 8 x
coal-based electricity generation plants in 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
different areas of Pakistan raises concerns.
00 Projects which are likely to have an impact Fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP
on health of the people are very limited.
This is due to the fact that only recognised
CPEC project pertaining to health is up ── Industrial Sector. Industrial sector recorded
gradation of GDA Hospital in Gwadar. a growth of 5.02 % as compared to 5.8 % the
── Water Supply and Sanitation. Apart from previous year.
9 x SEZs, which may contribute towards ── Services’ Sector. Services’ sector witnessed
improving water supply and sanitation in a growth of 5.98% as compared to 5.55 % the
those particular areas, only one project has previous year. Share of services’ sector has
been planned (5 MGD Desalination Plant) reached to 59.59 % of GDP in FY 2017/18.

Green Book 2019 65

CPEC will curb brain ARMY
drain and generate employment opportunity for youth

── Per Capita Income. It is historically one of are higher real GDP growth, lower growth in
the most commonly used indicator to assess population and stability of Pakistani Rupee.
the economic development of a country. Per Figure displays the progressive improvement
Capita Income in dollar terms increased from in per capita income for Pakistan during last
US $ 1,531 in FY 2016/17 to US $ 1,629 in FY ten years.
2017/18. Main contributing factors for this

Pakistan - Per Capita Income ($)

1700 1629
1600 1514 1531
1400 1320 1334
(US $)

1053 1072
1100 1026
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Source: PBS

66 Green Book 2019


Social and Demographic Domains
Positive Implications
── Employment Generation. One of the most
obvious domains in which CPEC is likely to
benefit Pakistan is job creation. According to
official data, 30,000 jobs have already been
created for Pakistani engineers and labourers
in the Early Harvest projects which are to
be completed in 2018.5 International Labour
Organisation (ILO) estimated that CPEC will
create around 400,000 jobs while Applied
Economics Research Centre (AERC) estimated
that CPEC is expected to create over 700,000
direct jobs between 2015 and 2030.6
── Better Infrastructure. One of the key areas
around which the success of CPEC will be
measured is infrastructure. In this context,
many roads have been built or are being
constructed. Besides catering for expected
increase of traffic on our roads in future, this
will also enhance connectivity especially in
the shape of farm-to-market roads.
── Inculcation of Chinese Work Ethos. Working job opportunities and improve the lifestyle of
on CPEC projects under Chinese managers its people; thus preventing brain drain from
and with Chinese counterparts is definitely the country. With basic necessities being
going to improve the work ethos of Pakistani available in their own motherland, there
work force making them more committed to would remain little incentive for people to go
their job and adopting a more professional abroad looking for jobs.
approach in their working. Working on
CPEC projects is also likely to give excellent Negative Implications
exposure to Pakistani professionals regarding ── Human Resource. Human resource of more
international business environment and than 200 million, if not channelled properly,
practices. might become a menace for the initiative,
── Alleviation of Poverty. CPEC projects are ushering silent detractors initially and active
likely to generate a large number of jobs in dissatisfaction/unrest in later stages. It is
the local market, thus helping reduce poverty essential that the population feels that effects
levels in Pakistan to some degree. According of CPEC are trickling down to common and
to  Pakistan Vision 2025, Pakistan aims to deprived citizen of Pakistan.
reduce its current poverty level by half. With
current poverty rate at 39%,7 this means that ── Education. While analysing CPEC projects, it
by 2025, the rate might drop to around 19%. is evident that this domain has been seriously
neglected. Pakistan China Friendship School
── Curbing Brain Drain. CPEC can help the in Gwadar may provide improved education
Government create better education facilities, to a few children of Gwadar but it will not
make any real contribution towards providing

education to 2.5 million out of school children
International Labour Organisation existing in Pakistan.
(ILO) estimated that CPEC will create ── Health
around 400,000 jobs while Applied 00 With entire world including China moving
Economics Research Centre (AERC) towards green energy, establishment of 8 x
coal based electricity generation plants in
estimated that CPEC is expected to
create over 700,000 direct jobs between
different parts of Pakistan raises concerns.
Environmental hazards of these plants viz
2015 and 2030 their benefits need to be weighed.

Green Book 2019 67


00 Medical facilities being set up at Gwadar can look to attract investment and ensure
will only provide basic medical facilities to value addition to increase its exports.
a small segment of the population. 00 In view of the planned alignment of CPEC
── Water Supply and Sanitation. With a boom routes, marble and mineral processing,
in CPEC projects and related migrations, food processing/packaging and leather
urbanisation is likely to increase. products trade have great potential in
Industrialisation and coal based power plants improving the trade balance with China.
will pollute existing water reservoirs. ── Financial Inclusion
── M
ass Migration. As a result of mass migration, 00 New international commercial banks
following issues are likely to surface: such as Bank of China have established
00 Sense of deprivation among locals if they their branches in Pakistan. It brings new
are unable to compete with settlers for jobs. and modern financial products which can
augment our existing financial system.
00 Threat to livelihood means of locals due
to industrialisation/developmental work, 00 There are new opportunities to provide
fishermen of Gwadar are a case in point. consultancy and brokerage services for
Chinese and Pakistani investors.
Economic Domain ── Employment Opportunities. According
to the International Labour Organisation,
Positive Implications CPEC would bring more than 400,000 jobs
to the country while the Applied Economic
── Trade Prospects and Potential Industries Research Centre has estimated that the mega
00 About US $16 billion of trade with China initiative would provide around 700,000
occurs mainly through the sea (97%) and direct jobs between 2015 and 2030.8 Planning
only 1% through land. Improving the Commission’s data shows even more
infrastructure (rail and road network) promising results, with CPEC generating
will help increase trade by reducing around 800,000 jobs in the next 15 years.
transportation and transaction costs. ── Urban Development
00 Rapid urbanisation under CPEC is
creating agglomeration economy with
opportunities in the sectors of real estate,
urban infrastructure, construction and
municipal service delivery.
00 CPEC is likely to attract investments from
Pakistani private sector in ‘Low-Carbon
Urban Transportation’ and other ‘Clean
Technologies for Cities’ through Green
Climate Fund (GCF) and other global
funding opportunities.
00 CPEC, an economic corridor can become
00 China is taking keen interest to invest in an ‘Environmental Corridor’ if the
agribusiness to add value to Pakistan’s mechanism for development of ‘Regional
agriculture raw products. Same can Renewable Energy Trade’ between
be exploited for improving Pakistan’s China & Pakistan is formulated and
agriculture-based exports to China implemented. Benefiting from Chinese
(constituting 15% of Pakistan’s total experience, Pakistan can move on the
exports). path of “Green Development”.
00 With Chinese investors’ interest in local ── Poverty Reduction. CPEC is likely to lift
businesses, Pakistan’s textile industry millions of Pakistanis out of poverty. CPEC

‘‘ China is taking keen interest to invest in agribusiness to add value to Pakistan’s

agriculture raw products. Same can be exploited for improving Pakistan’s agriculture-
based exports to China (constituting 15% of Pakistan’s total exports)

68 Green Book 2019


‘‘ Gwadar port city is expected to soon Negative Implications

become one of the most sought after ── Over Dependence on CPEC. At present,
real estate investment destinations in
Pakistan’s economic progress has been
linked in its entirety to CPEC allied projects.
Asia This policy of putting all eggs in one basket
can prove to be counter-productive. With
our economic stakes linked with CPEC only,
its failure on any account will prove to be
embraces the construction of textile garment, catastrophic.
industrial park projects, construction of
dams, installation of nuclear reactors and ── Debt Trap
creating networks of road and railway lines 00 CPEC is based on a US $62 billion outlay
which will generate numerous employment whose major component is either loan or
opportunities. investments by Chinese companies.
── Gwadar as a Trading Hub. With 120 berths 00 In 2017, Pakistan had nearly US $72
in future, Gwadar Port will be able to deal billion  foreign debt. Current Account
with trade traffic of about 45-65 million tons Deficit in first 5 months (Jul-Nov 2017) of
(in 15 years) up to 300 million tons (in 50 current fiscal year has risen to 89%.10
years).9 Besides strengthening trade ties with 00 With CPEC, if it is assumed that the
landlocked countries, it is estimated that interest will be in the range of 7%, payable
up to 4 % of global trade will pass through in 25 to 40 years, this would mean China
Gwadar by 2020. About 70% increase is will have to be paid back approximately
expected in maritime trade through Gwadar. US $ 7-8 billion as Equated Monthly
Revenue from the port, once fully operational, Instalments (EMI) for next 43 years
is estimated to be US $40 billion annually. from 2018  onwards. Pakistan will find it
── Real Estate Business. Gwadar port city difficult to pay back even the interest, let
is expected to soon become one of the alone the principal amount.
most sought after real estate investment ── Increased Trade Deficit. Pakistan’s trade deficit
destinations in Asia. An annual population has widened in recent years because exports
growth rate of 2.8% (Source: FBS, 2016) are much lower than imports. Pakistan had
otherwise entails that more housing projects trade deficit of US $32.4 billion during last
would be needed in future. fiscal year11 out of which US $11 billion is with
── Tourism. CPEC is likely to boost ecological China alone. However, we continue to exempt
tourism in Gilgit-Baltistan and coastal tourism duty from more and more items for the Chinese
in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan. This is going to which is likely to hurt the local industrialist
benefit not only the local people but will also for the benefit of Chinese individuals.
be a good source of revenue generation for the ── Reduction in Remittances. Foreign
country. remittances have also seen a downward trend


5530 5600

5125 5200

4966 5000
USD Million

4765 4791
4722 4740 4800

Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017


Green Book 2019 69


in third quarter of 2017 whereby they have

decreased to US $4791 million as compared
to US $5246 million in the second quarter of
‘‘ Pakistan is providing free trade
and low tariffs on products imported
2017.12 from China, thus making them
── Overwhelming of Pakistani Industries cheaper than Pakistani goods. This is
00 Pakistan cannot compete with products of
counterproductive to our industries
other countries because of  high taxation, and their export potential
exorbitant electricity rates with erratic
supply, inconsistency of policies etc., for
industrial sector. ── Energy Mix. In overall outlay of CPEC energy
00 Pakistan is providing free trade and low projects, the main thrust at present is on coal
tariffs on products imported from China, generation. We need to keep an eye on ratio of
thus making them cheaper than Pakistani coal’s share in the overall energy generation
goods. This is counterproductive to our mix. At the current pace, by 2025, coal’s
industries and their export potential. share could be as high as 55-60%, a figure
highly undesirable both from environmental
00 Asymmetric trade balance exists between perspective as well as financial burden.
Pakistan and China. While Pakistan has
very less export items for Chinese markets, ── Environmental Hazards from Coal Power
our markets are flooded by cheap Chinese Plants. Through CPEC,  China is installing
goods. These may harm Pakistani Small coal-based power plants in Pakistan which
and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the long have adverse effects on human health and are
term. in contradiction to environmental safe guards
and regulations. This is alarming since China
── Reliance on Own Workforce by China. is closing down its own coal power plants due
China is having huge under-utilised capacity to environment degradation issues.
of industrial production and workforce.
Majority of workers, goods and material being ── Absence of HRD. Pakistan lacks skilled
employed on CPEC projects is of Chinese and well trained work force. This human
origin. Apparently, Pakistani work force, if resource (including engineers, technicians
utilised, may only be employed on odd jobs and administrators etc.) will be required
while the lion’s share would go to Chinese at enhanced scale once CPEC projects get
work force. operational at their optimum levels. Nandipur

Combined Cycle Thermal Power Plant is one with Pakistan. The whole exercise is
of the example where after a lot of operational aimed at enhancing competitiveness
failures, Pakistan handed over its operations amongst Chinese companies with
to Chinese Company. No concrete planning is possibility of better dividends.
underway for capacity building of local HRD 00 In present day world, geo-economics
to meet projected requirements. is overtaking geo-politics which has
── Lack of Development along Corridors. necessitated reorientation in Chinese
There are no worthwhile cities and rest areas approach. However, CPEC being flagship
along CPEC routes from Gwadar towards project is likely to face stiff resistance
Khunjerab for supporting passengers and due to evolving global power politics and
cargo traffic along these roads. security challenges.
── Development of Maritime Sector. ── Implementation of Local Laws. Being a
Exploration of offshore natural resources signatory of WTO, Pakistan has to clearly
promises tremendous economic potential. elucidate in laws that privately owned Chinese
Although some CPEC projects aim at promoting companies as well as Government firms
coastal tourism and the fishermen community shall be given same preferential treatment.13
but the fact is that the activities of Pakistani Similarly, exceptions and preferential access
fishermen are hampered by illegal trawling available to Chinese products throughout
inside Balochistan waters, lack of support from Pakistan will have to be provided to other
the government and poor economic condition WTO signatory competitors. It is likely
of fishermen community. Government needs to invoke complications over struggling
to do much more for this community all along economic structure being borne by Pakistan.
the Coastal Areas of Pakistan.
── Policy Framework Bindings. CPEC projects
── Weak Diplomatic Corps. We have not are spread over three decades. Given the
been much successful in establishing our history of bilateral relations with China as
diplomatic foot print in emerging markets. well as perceived interdependence after
Moreover, due to absence of meritocracy, CPEC, this cooperation is likely to continue.
country’s interests are not being served in an Therefore, our internal as well as external
apt manner. policies shall remain contingent upon this
── Absence of Freight Forwarding Facilities. collaboration. While such nature of relations
On operationalisation of Gwadar Port, huge act as a surety, there is also an element of
volume of cargo is likely to be transported predictability attached to it which shall limit
from here to China and other destinations. our coalition options.14
It would require companies holding sizeable ── Labour Standards. SEZs act was promulgated
freight carrying trucks. However, presently in 2012, which facilitates public private
there are no government/private owned partnership as well as private developers
transport companies in Gwadar having in developing economic zones. However, a
capability for provision of said facilities to global study15concludes that these zones
meet the requirements. generally neglect welfare of labourers.
Therefore this aspect has to be focused.
Legal Aspects ── Focus of Agreements
── Principle Variations. Chinese government 00 CPEC will enhance China’s global
has approached CPEC by opting to invest outreach. Therefore Chinese priority will
in commercially viable ventures. The be more on infrastructural development
fundamental variations from standard rather than trade with Pakistan.
practices are as follows:
00 Manner in which different contracts have
00 China will invest through its state owned been handed over to Chinese companies
companies in the projects collaborating has come under debate/scrutiny. Non

‘‘ In present day world, geo-economics is overtaking geo-politics which has

necessitated reorientation in Chinese approach. However, CPEC being flagship project
is likely to face stiff resistance due to evolving global power politics and security

Green Book 2019 71


Prime Minister Imran Khan in delegation level talks with

President Xi Jinping – Beijing, China (2nd November 2018)

adherence to standard practices and 00 Exchange programmes for doctors and

abstinence of market competition can be para-medics be organised in order to
challenged in courts, detrimental to CPEC accrue benefit from Chinese expertise in
perception. this domain.
── Investment Agreements. Pakistan and ── Migration
China have comprehensive investment
agreements in form of BIT & FTA. BIT focuses 00 Ministry of Planning and Development to
more on “equitable treatment” for investors, plan new cities/towns in relation to CPEC
FTA is comparatively more comprehensive in projects with a view to curb urbanisation
addressing the voids in BIT by focussing on of already over-crowded major cities.
“fair and equitable” treatment. 00 Mass awareness campaigns be initiated
in order to promote inter-cultural and
RECOMMENDATIONS inter-ethnic harmony.
── Designated Areas for Chinese. In order to
Social and Demographic Domains prevent any untoward incident which may
National Level create bad blood, areas may be designated
── Education where Chinese people can live separately
from the local population. Present system of
00 More good quality schools under CPEC
Chinese accommodation at Gwadar port may
project be started in different parts of
Pakistan to provide quality education to be taken up as an example in this regard.
the under-privileged. ── Changes in Structure of Population.
00 Chinese language be taught as an elective Preparations be made for imminent arrival
subject at intermediate and graduation of large number of Chinese and focus on pro-
level. This will contribute in reducing active measures such as:
the gap between Chinese and Pakistani 00 Transparent process of visa issuance to
societies to some extent. Chinese nationals.
── Health 00 Coordination of NADRA with Chinese
00 Primary, secondary and tertiary medical
care facilities be made part of CPEC. Special

focus be given to Southern Balochistan,
Western half of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Primary, secondary and tertiary
Northern areas of Pakistan. medical care facilities be made part
00 Joint research institutes for medical of CPEC. Special focus be given to
sciences be established in major cities of Southern Balochistan, Western half
Pakistan with collaboration of Pakistani
and Chinese authorities.
of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Northern
areas of Pakistan

72 Green Book 2019


Hukou System16 to gain information about plants and storage tanks be planned along
Chinese nationals coming to Pakistan. all CPEC routes inside Balochistan where the
00 Making policies of giving visa to individuals entire region faces acute shortage of water.
after obtaining a Non-Criminal Record
Certificate from Chinese authorities. Army Level
── Relocation of Population. Shifting of ── Education
population be carried out under a national 00 Army should focus on development of
strategy so that people from backward regions education sector  in Balochistan and
of Pakistan are relocated along CPEC routes to Sindh, especially in areas along CPEC
help evolve new cities/towns. routes by establishing Army Public
── Concession for Locals. With advancement Schools and Cadet Colleges to provide
of CPEC, price hike in certain areas will affect good quality education facilities to locals
land prices. Locals will then be unable to of these areas.
purchase land being monetarily inferior to 00 Contribute towards establishing of
international companies. A scheme must be excellent quality education institutions
devised to set prices after concession only in Academia-Industry-Research (AIR)
for the locals so that they are not wiped Clusters with NUST in the lead, at SEZ
out altogether from business opportunities locations planned at Dera Ismail Khan,
offered by CPEC. Zhob, Quetta, Kalat, Khuzdar, Turbat and
── Pakistanis on Key Positions on Projects. A Gwadar.
certain ratio of key positions be reserved for 00 Establish National Defence University
Pakistanis in all CPEC projects (40% – 50%). campus at Gwadar by clearing
This ratio may be less in the initial 3-5 years bureaucratic hurdles in Balochistan.
and it may be demanded that after utilising
this period for training of Pakistani people, ── Health
this ratio be increased. 00 Identify dysfunctional hospitals and adopt
── Human Resource. A number of measures them on the lines of GDA Hospital, Gwadar
be taken for correct utilisation of Pakistan’s under proper legislation by respective
Human Resource by offering incentives to provincial governments. Same may be run
educated Pakistani diaspora working abroad by Army Doctors on supervisory role while
with the aim to bring them back to Pakistan undertaking capacity building of local
and become part of CPEC projects. This will doctors.
also reduce the brain drain faced by Pakistan. 00 Monitoring of health facilities in Sindh and
Balochistan provinces in collaboration
with provincial health departments after
necessary legislation at federal/provincial
00 Organise free medical camps in remote
areas’ especially in Sindh and Balochistan to
provide health care services to marginalised
── Jobs
00 Locals (unskilled/ semi-skilled/ skilled
work force) be inducted in military
institutions such as FWO, MES etc.,
besides induction in Army.

── Water Supply and Sanitation. Water

supply and sanitation projects be planned
under CPEC umbrella to improve these
‘‘ A scheme must be devised to set
prices after concession only for the
locals so that they are not wiped out
facets in cities/newly developed areas/
SEZs. Furthermore projects like water supply
altogether from business opportunities
schemes, desalination plants, water filtration offered by CPEC

Green Book 2019 73


00 Vocational Training Centres be established Gwadar Industrial Zone and SEZs along the
in far flung areas for skill development to routes of CPEC be implemented to promote
get employment in CPEC projects. local industries.
── Ship Breaking and Shipbuilding Industry.
Owing to strategic importance of ship building
Economic Domain industry, Pakistan must develop its ship
National Level breaking and building industries on firm
footings. South Korean shipping industry
── Debt Management. Apart from the oft reforms be consulted as a guideline for better
repeated recommendations of credible results.
experts regarding debt management of the ── HRD. Invest in HRD at all tiers. Inculcate
country, proper evaluation of CPEC related and promote research culture in universities,
contracts for mapping out a debt payment especially the ones related to economic sectors
strategy be done immediately to avoid default of interest for Pakistan. Simultaneously,
on their payments. related fields also may not be neglected
── CPEC Central Command Authority. A CPEC such as Contract Management, Contractual
Central Command Authority be established Law, and International Law etc. Malaysian
for supervising and undertaking all CPEC economy is a good example of how a country
related policy decisions and projects. Timely can successfully reshape its HRD model for
completion of Early Harvest Projects to be achieving outstanding progress.
ensured so as to operationalise CPEC within ── Business Friendly Environment. Government
the envisioned timeframe. Transparency to be must unleash a new plan to resurrect a struggling
brought in development of SEZs as clusters industrial environment especially in Gwadar.
of Industry, Academia and Human Resource Implement sweeping changes for making
Development to spurt industrial revolution in Pakistan’s economy attractive for investment.
the country in a wholesome manner. Spur job creation for the locals of Gwadar
── Industrialise the Country. Achieve and Balochistan. Some suggested steps are as
industrial growth at 7-8% in short to medium follows:-
term & 9-10% in long term by providing 00 Reduce tariffs to regional parity and
uninterrupted power supply to optimise provision of uninterrupted energy to
existing potential of industrial output. industry.
Facilitation package (tax concessions, skill
development, import concessions etc.) at 00 Promotion of financial credit facility to SMEs.

‘‘ Apart from the oft repeated recommendations of credible experts regarding

debt management of the country, proper evaluation of CPEC related contracts for
mapping out a debt payment strategy be done immediately to avoid default on their

74 Green Book 2019


00 Establishment of SEZs for specialised having potential for Pakistani exports,

industry clusters for enabling SMEs to Pakistan must aim at enhancing its capacity
complement resources and expertise. in targeted industrial sectors such as cotton
00 Graduated devaluation of currency. products, leather products and electrical
── Integrated Energy Development Model.
CPEC energy funds be re-allocated with revised ── Development Strategy. Proposed
priorities favouring hydel, renewables and development strategy is premised on
nuclear options. This should be supplemented transition from agrarian economy to
with an “Integrated Energy Development industrialised economy having export
Model” which can help achieve savings of oriented outlook. Salient aspects of proposed
15-20% in our total energy consumption. development strategy for Pakistan are
Moreover, private investments in hydel and appended below:
other renewable sources be encouraged. 00 Initiation Phase
── Development along CPEC Corridors. ƒƒ Ascertain target countries where
Construction of rest and administration areas Pakistan can focus on increasing
should be carried out along the CPEC corridors trade volume. For this purpose,
as this will not only have a positive effect import pattern of these countries to be
on economy but also make the locals stake studied and same may be compared
holders partners in benefits of CPEC. with own production potential in
── Transparency and Meritocracy. System areas of interest.
of transparent bidding for CPEC projects ƒƒ
D evelop CPEC communication
and strict enforcement of meritocracy in all infrastructure (both road and
employment opportunities in CPEC projects be railways) and allied facilities at the
ensured. Quarterly and yearly audits of CPEC earliest.
projects’ financial transactions be ensured
ƒƒ Establish SEZs along the CPEC
through reputable international audit firms.
routes as per the local area products.
Details of all financial undertakings be floated
Businessmen/Consortiums setting up
for public consumption.
their businesses in these SEZs be given
── Contingency Planning for National economic incentives in the shape of
Economy. Effective measures be taken to tax exemptions etc.
improve all sectors of our economy. CPEC can
ƒƒ Carry out analysis of import patterns
be means to an end but not the end itself.
of target countries to ascertain areas
── Capacity Building in Targeted Sectors. After of focus for development of above
carrying out a detailed analysis of countries mentioned SEZs.

Green Book 2019 75


00 Implementation Phase circles and importers of targeted countries

ƒƒ In addition to other facilitation with the aim to increase our trade volume
with these countries.
mechanisms, the government would
have to facilitate targeted industries/ ── Tasking of Defence Attaches. Defence
businessmen at least initially to enhance Attaches be tasked to also assist in pursuing
the competitive value of own exports to economic diplomacy by concerned staff at
the targeted countries. our embassies in Africa and other countries
(including their accredited countries).
ƒƒ Effective marketing of own products Military diplomacy to pave the way for
through diplomatic missions/ proper diplomatic relations transitioning to
commercial councillors and diplomats economic diplomacy.
to cement trade ties with the targeted
countries. ── Security of CPEC Routes. Army to continue
ensuring security at mining prospects and
along farm-to-market roads besides the main
Army Level CPEC routes to allow raw materials to reach
── Establishment of AIR Clusters. Army must AIR cluster factories.
support trio of top notch educationists,
businessmen and research fellows in Conclusion
establishment of world class AIR clusters
CPEC can indeed prove a game and fate changer
along CPEC routes.
for Pakistan. Pakistan can acquire numerous
── Assistance to Ministries for Kick Starting advantages from CPEC in social, demographic and
Exports. Maximum support be rendered economic domains, for which a holistic approach
to Ministries of Finance and Commerce in and sound strategy are required. With honest
increasing our trade footprint on African pursuit of national interests using CPEC as the main
continent. For this purpose, our contingents vehicle for growth, Pakistan stands to emerge quite
deployed in United Nations missions be successful in the comity of nations in the future.
dovetailed for making inroads into trade

Notes 8. CPEC creates over 30,000 jobs” Associated Press of Pakistan Corporation,
1. “COAS Address at Gwadar” Pakistan Army website, accessed on 20 accessed on February 28, 2018,http://www.app.com.pk/cpec-projects-create-
February, 2018, https://www.pakistanarmy.gov.pk/awpreview/pDetails. over-30000-jobs-officials/.
aspx?pType=PressRelease&pID=646 9. Interview with Mr Zhang Bao Zhong, Chairman China Overseas Port Holding
2. Saddam Hussain, “The possibility of a Russia-Pakistan Economic Corridor” Company (CoPHC) at Gwadar on June 12, 2018
Opinion Editorial Daily Times, 29 April,2018,http://www.cpecinfo.com/news/ 10. Salman Siddique, “Current Account Deficit Widens 28.74 % to $1.61 Bn”
the-possibility-of-a-russia-pakistan-economic-corridor/NTIxMA Express Tribune, (February 21, 2018).
3. Pakistan Economic Survey 2017/18, Ministry of Finance website, http://www. 11. Shahbaz Rana, “Trade deficit widens to $17.97 Billion”, Express Tribune
finance.gov.pk/survey_1718.html, accessed on 22 February 18 (February 23, 2018).
4. “Pakistan Economic Survey 2016-2017 Ministry of Pakistan website, accessed 12. “Pakistan Remittances” Trading Economics, accessed on March 24,https://
on February 22, 2018, http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey_1617.html. tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/ remittances.
5. The Nation, dated 06-06-2017 by Fawad Yousafzaihttp://www.cpecinfo.com/ 13. Malik, Ahmad Rashid, “The Sino Pakistan trade and investment relations”,
news/cpec-early-harvest-projects-create-over-30000-jobs-for locals/MzE3Nw Margalla Papers, 2013.
& “Over 30,000 jobs created under CPEC early harvest projects” Pakistan 14. Jaspal, Dr Zafar. “Challenges to CPEC”, The Pakistan Observer, http://
Obsever, accessed on July 21, 2018, https://pakobserver.net/30000-jobs- pakobserver.net / challenges-to-cpec/ (last visited 31 Marc 2018).
15. Report, “SEZs: Performance, Lessons Learned, and Implications for Zone
6. CPEC creates over 30,000 jobs” Associated Press of Pakistan Corporation, Development”, World Bank Group, April 2008.
accessed on February 28, 2018,http://www.app.com.pk/cpec-projects-create-
over-30000-jobs-officials/. 16. Priyanka Junejo, “China’s Hukou System”, The Diplomat (July 14, 2017).

7. “Pakistan 2025 One Nation - One Vision” Planning Commission of Pakistan

website, accessed on February 28,20 8,http://pc.gov.pk/web/vision.

Green Book 2019 77




Dr. Zafar Mahmood is a Professor of

Economics & HOD Research, School
of Social Sciences and Humanities,
National University of Sciences and
Technology (NUST), Islamabad

For the past many years, Pakistan’s economic growth performance has remained sluggish and uneven.
It is mainly due to unrealised growth potential, including under-utilisation of the installed capacity.
This is happening despite the fact that Pakistan holds some essential natural endowments and strategic
advantages viz-a-viz economic fundamentals that can enable it to harness the unrealised potential. The
China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project has become an antecedent for fast-tracked industrial
growth phase. Next phase of CPEC will establish Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in Pakistan. SEZs will
open a new window of opportunity for both countries to cooperatively integrate and grow fast. While
embarking on to establish SEZs, Pakistan undeniably will face a number of challenges that it will have to
manage. SEZs once established will provide much needed impetus to stimulate economic activities. They
will also provide a life-time opportunity for Pakistani companies to work together with Chinese companies
for the transformation of export-oriented manufacturing industries. To make this a reality, in this article,
I propose a pragmatic approach whereby, from the beginning, SEZs should be linked with the Domestic
Zone including industrial clusters in Pakistan for a win-win outcome via extensive capacity building and
the resulting technology and productivity spillovers. These links, with a proactive role of the Pakistani
Diasporas, would facilitate transfer of technologies and knowledge, adaptation of modern management
practices, and creation of new business for cluster-based firms and ancillary service providers. The paper
provides detailed strategic policy directions and policy actions to draw maximum inclusive-benefits on
sustainable basis from the establishment of SEZs.

Keywords: Special Economic Zone, Industrial Transformation, Industrial Clusters, Strategic Policy

78 Green Book 2019


Map of 9 SEZs

akistan’s economic growth performance 60% of population), which has the potential to
over the past 10 years, like the “lost drive the economy onto a higher economic growth
decade of the 1990s”, has remained low path, thus creating a demographic dividend.2
and uneven. This weak performance Pakistan has an additional advantage of large
was mainly due to unrealised growth Diasporas residing abroad. Some of them can
potential, including under-utilisation return if conducive work and living environments
of the installed capacity. The Pakistan economy are created in the country. Diasporas carry a further
is globally ranked at 115th (2017) in terms of advantage of working with foreign workers and
competitiveness, 113th (2016) in innovation, 118th multinational companies. They can play a decisive
(2016) in human capital and 147th (2018) in ease role in providing expertise, know how and even
of doing business.1 Such dismal rankings have investments for the new phase of industrialisation
a very direct adverse impact on investment and in the country.
divulge of precarious economic performance. This
situation also indicates that Pakistan considerably Pakistani Youth Bulge – Greater potential for economic growth
lags behind its economic growth potential, which
calls for transformation of the economy, not mere
restructuring, to put back the economy on a path of
better social-economic well-being and prosperity.
These goal paths are achievable as Pakistan holds
some essential natural endowments, strategic
advantages and economic fundamentals that
can enable it to harness the unrealised growth
potential. Realisation of the potential will make
it possible for Pakistan to secure a bigger share
in global production and exports. It may be noted
from the latest available statistics that Pakistan’s
share in the world GDP was 0.37% (2015), while the
share in world’s total exports was 0.13% (2017) that
has declined from 0.18% in 1991.
Notwithstanding the above described
situation, Pakistan has a favourable demographic
profile with a large proportion of bright youth (i.e.,

Green Book 2019 79


has struggled to force its outdated and loss-making
Pakistan has a favourable plants to restructure or shut down.
demographic profile with a large Chinese industries having excess capacity
proportion of bright youth (i.e., 60% simply want to escape weak demand and soaring
environmental costs in China by moving abroad
of population), which has the potential through the courtesy of the “One Belt One Road”
to drive the economy onto a higher initiative that intends to shift such production
economic growth path, thus creating a abroad.
demographic dividend

Pakistan’s driving force to attract investment

in SEZs also include growing urbanisation, rising
middle class, and increasing consumer spending. The
economy is currently powered by such dynamisms
and foreign investors are weighing to seize this
At this juncture as Pakistan is preparing to
take some strategic economic decisions, the China
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project has
become an antecedent for fast-tracked industrial
growth. Completion of infrastructure projects have
laid down a solid foundation and created positive
externality3 (multiplier effects) for the next phase
of CPEC. The next phase is the establishment of
Special Economic Zones (SEZs). To benefit from
SEZs, Pakistan aims at establishing resilient and
potentially productive industries to initiate a
new era of industrialisation and trade, including
high-end textiles, sports goods, surgical goods, Pakistan should be careful in opening its SEZs
telecom parts, engineering and knowledge- for Chinese investment. While safeguarding its
based industries, fish and marine products, food interests, Pakistan should welcome only the above
packaging, and modern storage facilities for fruits reported industries, they should not unnecessarily
and vegetables, jointly or side-by-side with Chinese impose cost on the economy or distort domestic
companies to be based in SEZs. markets. Planners should attract those industries
SEZs will open new vistas of opportunity for that should deliver both static and dynamic
both countries to cooperatively integrate and grow benefits.
fast. Thus, SEZs are likely to become new growth Given the successful record of China in
poles. establishing many SEZs, Pakistan finds a new
Chinese investors, on their part, are looking conviction to establish SEZs jointly with China.
for profit-making opportunities around the globe. Pakistan is ready to benefit from the Chinese
They have shown keen interest in investing in experience in ensuring the success of its
SEZs being exclusively developed for them in prospective SEZs.
Pakistan. This is happening at a time when rapid SEZs would provide an opportunity to attract
industrial expansion has over burdened China Chinese investment and locate Pakistan in the
with ‘price-sapping supply gluts’ in many of its global supply and value chains to boost economic
industries. Despite several policy initiatives, China development.
SEZs can help make economic development

process more inclusive across Pakistan. Pakistan
SEZs would provide an opportunity should capitalise on its existing cheap labour,
diasporas, land and other endowments to attract
to attract Chinese investment and investors.
locate Pakistan in the global supply Needless to state that while capitalising on the
and value chains to boost economic opportunities arising from SEZs, Pakistan will have
to, effectively, manage many challenges including:
development consistency in economic policies and avoidance of

80 Green Book 2019


sudden policy reversals, transparency in decision- Potential Role and Effectiveness of SEZs
making, expansion of financial markets to provide
adequate finance to industries, availability of SEZs are established around the globe to
qualified personnel through execution of vocational catalyse economic development and structural
training and skill development programmes, and transformation, as they create special environment
favourable business environment, including strong conducive to business, where governments
property rights protection and fair and speedy otherwise face great difficulties doing so. The basic
dispute resolution.4 rationale to establish SEZs is that by removing
SEZs, once established will provide much critical ‘binding constraints’8 to economic growth
needed impetus to stimulate economic activities. in a controlled environment, their policies create
They will also provide a life-time opportunity to incentives for firms and investors that might not
Pakistani companies to work together with Chinese otherwise be attracted.9 Governments also use
companies for the development of export-oriented SEZs as a way to attract investments in sectors with
manufacturing industries, while managing the no obvious comparative advantage, or as a way of
above stated challenges with the assistance of increasing value-added in export activities.10
reformed public sector institutions. To make this Conceptually, SEZs are characterised and
happen, I propose an integrated-multi-sectoral designed as:
approach via extensive capacity building. This ── Geographically demarcated areas.
should stimulate inclusive and sustainable ── Single management/administration.
growth, generate decent and productive jobs,
develop industrial and business infrastructures, ── Special fiscal incentives and regulatory
and develop global and domestic supply and value regime.
chains.5 To harness these benefits6 this approach ── Incubators for the application of new policies
suggests to connect SEZs with existing industrial and economy-wide approaches.
clusters while introducing comprehensive strategic ── Separate customs’ area and its streamlined
reforms.7 These links would facilitate transfer of procedures.
new technologies and knowledge, adaptation of
modern management practices, and creation of ── Modern and reliable infrastructures.11
new businesses for cluster based firms and other SEZs are generally self-contained in the
ancillary firms. procurement of raw materials (from local and
Within the above perspective, this paper international markets), power generation,
discusses the potential role and effectiveness of mitigating pollution, sewage treatment and
SEZs on the basis of international experience, A support services. They have practically everything
critical evaluation of existing SEZs in Pakistan from transportation to cultural and educational
and proposed CPEC-related SEZs, Potential threats facilities. So, they are perceived to provide
to CPEC-SEZs, Approach to connect clusters and significant insulation from the uncertain domestic
SEZs, Strategic policy directions and policy actions zone (DZ, Note: domestic zone is comprised of rest
to draw benefits from SEZs. of the country) environment.12

Special Economic Zone

Green Book 2019 81


Laws and regulations of SEZs are different from manufacturing by leaping up value chains and
those generally applicable laws and regulations in prompting positive externalities.
the DZ. ── Create competition and hence efficiency.
SEZs are generally duty free enclaves for ── Alleviate unemployment.
both trade and manufacturing. Several fiscal ── Promote exports and industrialisation.
and regulatory incentives are offered to investors ── Ensure ease of administration and
within zones by national, provincial and local management.
governments. Nonetheless, international ── Allocate resources for socio-economic uplift
experience suggests that decisions to invest in in adjoining areas for their acceptability by
SEZs are rarely based on financial incentives alone; the locals.
indeed such incentives are not the key to SEZs ── Diversify economic and political risks.
success that may attract weaker firms. Success Despite gainful role played by SEZs worldwide,
factors for them include; efficient and cost effective in some countries they have been criticised for
infrastructures, and good governance (or absence being less legal and socially protective for workers,
of over-intrusive governance) that distinguish them misusage of allotted land for real estate speculation
from DZ. and tax evasion.
Success of SEZ inspires DZ, encouraging International experience suggests that the
more effective provision of public services and main reason as to why SEZs fail is that initial
infrastructures, and forcing policy makers to investors (harvesters) locate themselves in SEZs to
introduce economic reforms to achieve what was escape from taxation and resist in improving their
not achieved before.13 competitiveness.
Key successful international experiences, They move out when the time-constrained
especially of China, suggest gradualism with subsidies and other incentives expire. For less
an experimental approach, a strong political dynamic firms, SEZs are simply a source of rent-
commitment, preferential policies and broad seeking. Other reasons for SEZs’ failure include:
institutional autonomy, foreign investment and weak governance, regulatory issues, bilateral
investment from diaspora, strong business value disputes, lack of a dispute resolution mechanism,
chains and social networks, continuous technology etc. To avoid such problems and to ensure effective
learning and upgrading, and active and pragmatic management, countries assign decentralised
facilitation by the government. SEZs if ill-prepared decision-making roles to private-public partnership
will not be able to attract investors and will not arrangements of SEZs with inclusiveness of local
benefit from their efforts. communities and institutions.15 Moreover, the
Countries that fail to liberalise trade, and do situation is improved by creating coalition of local
not adopt export-oriented strategies are less likely workers, local governments and SEZ-investors who
to experience positive impacts of SEZs on exports.14 have invested in SEZ infrastructure.
Of course, SEZs have played varied roles in terms
of export diversification. Substantial exports from Existing SEZs in Pakistan - A Critical
SEZs have been observed in some sectors that were Overview
already outward-oriented, thus making export
performance difficult to attribute directly to the Virtually, every district headquarters of
presence of SEZs. Pakistan has an Industrial Estate or Area. Industrial
Estates have requisite infrastructures and offer
Thus successful SEZs spurto: many different incentives. Punjab has 26 industrial
─ ─ Establish complementarity between estates, whilst Sindh, Balochistan and KP, have 30,
economies. 7 and 12 industrial states, respectively.16
── Diversify the economy to produce new and In addition to Industrial Estates, eight Special
value-added goods. Economic Zones (SEZs) and Export Processing
── Attract local and foreign investment especially Zones (EPZs) in Pakistan include: Export Processing
towards under-privileged regions, reducing
regional disparities.

── Generate complementarity with local
industries, especially small and medium International experience suggests
enterprises (SMEs). that the main reason as to why SEZs
── Develop skills of local labour force.
── Transfer technology and disseminate fail is that initial investors (harvesters)
knowledge to domestic industries. locate themselves in SEZs to escape
── Promote ancillary industrial activities.
── Develop local entrepreneurship.
from taxation and resist in improving
── Enter into basic and intermediate their competitiveness

82 Green Book 2019


Zone (Karachi), Export Processing Zone (Risalpur),
Export Processing Zone (Sialkot), Export Processing
Pakistan has also developed many
Zone (Gujranwala), Special Economic Zone clusters, mainly through private
(Khairpur), Economic Zone (Rashakai Mardan),
initiatives that have promoted
Gadoon Economic Zone (Gadoon-Amazai), and
Hathar Economic Zone (Hathar-Haripur). industrial development
There are also some Industrial Parks: Rachna
Industrial Park (Lahore), Marble City (Lahore),
and Textile City (Port Qasim). Some of the newly textiles cluster in Faisalabad, fan cluster in Gujrat,
established industrial estates are: Value Addition and engineering cluster in Gujranwala, to name the
City (Sheikhupura-Faisalabad Expressway), major ones.
Industrial City (Faisalabad), and Quaid-e-Azam
Apparel Park (Lahore). CPEC – SEZs
Some of these industrial zones are successful Both China and Pakistan have proposed the
while others are unsuccessful, because they are following nine SEZs to be established in Pakistan:
established in remote areas lacking necessary
── Rashakai Economic Zone (Nowshera).
skilled work force or basic amenities for workers,
despite abundance of raw materials in the region. ── China Special Economic Zone (Dhabeji).
Generally, these estates are far away from existing ── Bostan Industrial Zone (Quetta).
industrial clusters consequently they could not
── Punjab-China Economic Zone (Faisalabad).
benefit from economies-of-scale external to
firms.17 Small private investment that took place ── ICT Model Industrial Zone (Islamabad).
in many Industrial Estates resulted into higher ── Development of Industrial Park on Pakistan
per unit service and utility costs, which made Steel Mills Land (Port Qasim).
them unfeasible. The Estates were not linked to ── Bhimber Industrial Zone.
domestic or global supply or value chains as they
were far away from traditional supply routes, ── Mohmand Marble City.
mainly highways and ports. Moreover, due to local ── Moqpondass SEZ (Gilgit-Baltistan).
influence allotted land was used for other purposes.
Pakistan has also developed many clusters, Of these, three prioritized SEZs set to take off
mainly through private initiatives that have soon are: Faisalabad, Rashakai and Dhabeji.
promoted industrial development. They are The whole political sphere in Pakistan has a
developed on the basis of their strength in skilled consensus to fast establish SEZs. The All Parties
workforce, raw materials availability, supporting Conference held on 15th January 2016, provided a
institutions and deep historical links with domestic much needed reassurance to both Chinese and
and global supply and value chains. These clusters Pakistani governments and their private investors.
include: sports and surgical clusters in Sialkot, Despite some reservations, stakeholders in two

countries now perceive CPEC as a project that would be limited if SEZs employ few local workers,
transform Pakistan into a hub of manufacturing especially if workers will be concentrated in
and trade activities in the region. low-skill jobs.
── SEZs can create distortion within the economy
Possible Threats to SEZs as they will receive incentives different from
The main threats that are likely to be faced by DZ and domestic industrial clusters.
the Pakistani industries located in SEZs and DZ ── Threat of sabotage from bureaucracy, who may
may include:-18 not wish to work in free market environment
and do not want to lose their clout.
── If the state land is not available to establish
── Footloose industries would draw benefits
SEZs, then a forceful land dispossession from fiscal incentives and may leave the
would be a source of ‘land conflicts’. country, so sustainability of SEZs would be
Resistance from land owners and local people the biggest threat.
could be hostile for SEZs and may jeopardise
its very existence.
── Adjacent local communities feeling socially
A Pragmatic Approach to Establish
threatened or not economically benefiting Complementary SEZ - Cluster
can create security threat for SEZs. So far, To draw maximum benefits from the
no specific threat has emerged against CPEC establishment of SEZs, I propose here a pragmatic
projects except occasional rhetoric. approach whereby Pakistan should carefully
── Threat to local industry could be significant design and plan to attract large-scale Chinese firms
from low-skill, labour-intensive and low- mainly producing intermediate inputs and large-
technology SEZ-based Chinese firms and medium-sized firms producing final goods.
producing similar products. These firms should be integrated with domestic
── Sustainability of firms located in the
export-led growth DZ, including domestic

strategy for SEZs industrial clusters. This
will be threatened Some Chinese investors may choose integration should be
by global trade to operate outside SEZs in an attempt created on the basis
frictions that are of complementarity
looming, with to avoid governmental control, and high between Chinese and
increasing global rents and utility costs in underpopulated domestic firms.
protectionism and
fears of global
SEZs. This may create a conflict of In preceding
paragraphs, the role of
trade wars. interest SEZs was discussed in
── SEZs’ success is detail. Here, I begin by
linked with institutional reforms and efficient discussing the role of industrial clusters in creating
institutions. Absence of reforms and reformed their possible complementarity with SEZs. An
institutions will be a recipe for SEZs failure. industrial cluster is a geographical concentration of
── Pakistanis interested in getting access to intertwined firms in a specific industry (e.g., sports
Chinese technology, while Chinese investors goods) with their links to input supplier firms,
will try to protect their intellectual properties financial, technological and other institutions all
in Pakistani market. Any resistance to transfer based in the cluster. Firms in a cluster are inter
of technology and knowledge by Chinese connected through their positive externalities
firms may create a conflict situation. and complementarities and are usually located
── SEZs will be threatened, if they could not near to each other. Cluster is thus a mechanism
achieve the desired impacts of moving up to for enabling firms to combine their efforts and
higher value-added activities, and generating resources for achieving competitiveness.
significant technology and productivity
spillovers for local industries. This character establishes the platform for
── Local participation in SEZs may be restricted sustainability and expansion of clusters in the
due to reluctance of Chinese firms to seek joint long run. There are three main reasons19 as to
ventures (Chinese firms strictly protect their why a cluster of firms may be more efficient than
proprietary knowledge and trade secrets). firms established in isolation across the country:
── Some Chinese investors may choose to specialised input suppliers based in a cluster know
operate outside SEZs in an attempt to avoid the exact needs of cluster-based manufacturing
governmental control, and high rents and firms, labour pooling of cluster firms reduces job
utility costs in underpopulated SEZs. This may search and training costs, and knowledge spillovers
create a conflict of interest. through informal intermingling of workers from
── Skill transfer through labour turnover might different firms. Clusters thus provide distinctive

84 Green Book 2019


opportunities for firms to take advantage of a wide them to expand. Of course, emergence of satellite
range of links, which then stimulate learning and clusters out of SEZs would depend on the success
innovation processes across firms. of the later. Such clusters would initially use low
Formation of clusters, however, takes time and labour-intensive technology. Some of them
and needs an ecosystem based on market forces.20 would gradually upgrade and move up the value
Most clusters are essentially established through chain.
“bottom-up” private initiatives. However, these For creating complementarities between
initiatives do not exclude government’s role of SEZ and cluster firms, Pakistan needs to plan
facilitation to create a cluster, especially through systematically from the outset. If SEZs are
improving the business environment and making established to work in isolation, then Pakistan
appropriate policy interventions. SEZs, on the will not benefit much from their existence. Only by
other hand, are established through a “top-down” creating complementarity/synergy between SEZs
approach mainly by the government policies. and existing industrial clusters, all the participants
Prospects for the SEZs to build backward will benefit for a longer time.
and forward linkages with domestic competitive
industrial clusters and ancillary suppliers are SEZs will initially be developed by the
potentially strong. This is possible if the SEZ firms private sector developers with assistance from
would source intermediate inputs from cluster- the government, which will ensure all required
based firms or sub-contract/outsource some of infrastructures, services, utilities and institutional
their production to them. Thus, direct and indirect support (see, Chart 1). SEZ firms will mainly
linkages need to be developed between SEZ firms produce ‘intermediate inputs’ and ‘final goods’.
and existing industrial cluster firms with concerted SEZs produced intermediate inputs will be supplied
efforts. to SEZ firms producing final goods and existing
Supply of domestic inputs intended for SEZs is local clusters, while remaining intermediate goods
a key to its integration with DZ including clusters will be sold in foreign markets. SEZs will export
(see, Chart 1). If no input from clusters is used in the their final goods to domestic and foreign markets.
production by the SEZ firms, then SEZ would merely In their complementary role, existing clusters will
be an isolated enclave. The build-up of linkages supply intermediate inputs and ancillary services
between the SEZ and DZ can motivate domestic to SEZs. SEZ in the long-run will also create satellite
producers of intermediate inputs to produce higher cluster independently or jointly with existing
quality inputs so that SEZ firms demand these inputs cluster in their vicinity.
domestically and do not outsource to their foreign Initially, SEZs firms will use established
networks. Likewise, producers of intermediate local distribution/marketing networks available
inputs based in SEZ can supply their output to DZ in local clusters or DZ, and later, they can have
and cluster-based final goods producing firms, who their own distribution network. Clusters normally
will thus be affected positively by such linkages. In
have small to medium-sized enterprises; they
general, the exchange of goods between SEZ and
cannot directly enter into foreign export markets.
DZ will pressurise firms to increase productivity via
upgrading their technology or alternatively they They can join hands with SEZ large firms to enter
will crowd out each other. into foreign export markets and thus can benefit
from established foreign distribution networks of
These linkages will not only create business
Chinese firms based in SEZs.
for local firms but will also enable Chinese
firms to firmly place themselves in SEZs for a Local clusters can be an important source of
long time. Zone management should encourage supply of skills to SEZs (i.e., labour pooling). With
Chinese investors to establish joint ventures with movement of workers between SEZ and cluster
local partners in SEZs and create backward and firms, spillover of technical knowledge will also
forward linkages with cluster and DZ firms. These take place.
linkages are possible only if strong domestic Institutional role would be to facilitate and
supply chains (DSCs) and domestic value chains encourage both clusters and SEZs to complement
(DVCs) are created and jointly used and operated each other. They would also create a match between
by SEZ and cluster firms. Such chains can be cluster and SEZs firms from the beginning. Some
promoted by developing efficient and cost effective
infrastructures and logistics.

Satellite clusters would also start emerging
out of existing saturated clusters and SEZs, Cluster is thus a mechanism for
independently or jointly (see Chart 1). Market enabling firms to combine their
forces initially produce satellite clusters, but later
on government support and facilitation, including
efforts and resources for achieving
setting up of various institutions, would enable competitiveness

Green Book 2019 85


Chart 1: A Pragmatic Approach to Link SEZs and Clusters

Special Economics Zone (SEZs) Domestic Zone (DZ)
Supplying of Skills, Ancillary Goods and Services
Spillover of skills & technology, dissemination of knowledge
Zone Management
SEZ Developers

Final Inputs
Producers Industrial Cluster
(Large &
Facilitation Firms: Large, Medium,
Medium Small
Firms) Government Institutions Producers of: Final Goods,
Special Fiscal Incentives Skill Development Support Intermediate Inputs
Provision of Land Provision of Technology Ancillary & Supplier Firms
Technical Assistance
Finance Facility
Labour Pooling

Intermediate Rules and Regulations Knowledge Dissemination


Inputs Infrastructure
Labour Laws Distribution Networks
Producers Environment Regulations
(Large Firms) Link with GSC & GVC
Environment Regulations Competition Law

Supplying of Intermediate Inputs Other firms outside cluster working

Adaptation of Modern Management Practices at isolated places in DZ

SEZ Satellite Joint Satellite Cluster DZ Satellite

Cluster Cluster
Domestic Foreign
Markets: Markets:

of SEZ and cluster-based firms will eventually be targets for businesses, markets and growth, ensure
competing for their shares in domestic and foreign availability of efficient infrastructures, technology
markets. As a practice, competition should be innovation capability, and environmental
encouraged on the principles of globally accepted sustainability21.
business norms, rules and regulations. The success of SEZs would require that
The crux of this approach is to create a pragmatism prevail. A very capable private
complementarity/synergy between SEZ and cluster administration, political will and determination are
firms from the beginning for the sustainability of needed to introduce SEZ cluster – based industrial
SEZs; attract large scale Chinese firms producing transformation, of course, with a cautious and
intermediate inputs and final goods, not just having gradual approach, so that the reform process does
not fall captive to vested interest groups.
assembly lines based on imported intermediate
inputs from their parent companies in China. Policy actions that need to be introduced while
establishing SEZs should include:
It will be difficult to safeguard Pakistan’s
interest once Chinese investment starts pouring ── Location Decision. Decision-makers have
to take location decisions as per the local
into SEZs, but not impossible. In this regard, I
dynamics and characteristics. Chinese private
put forward some strategic policy directions and
investors are least interested in investing
strategic policy actions in the next section. in a region without complete necessary
infrastructures, the supply of skilled workers
Strategic Policy Directions and Policy and developed markets for other inputs and
Actions raw materials. Thus, while making a decision,
SEZ strategies should be fully integrated into the objective of developing an export-oriented
economic development strategies and national SEZ and the development of backward
industrial policies. The SEZs should be so designed regions may be contradicting, they should be
that they complement and support national dealt separately. Initially locate SEZs near to
comparative advantages and be validated through established industrial clusters.
strategic planning. While developing SEZs, policy ── Planning of SEZs. Do not develop too many
makers must consider their commercial viability, fix SEZs at a time, otherwise competition among

86 Green Book 2019


zones to attract Chinese companies would like the growth potential, the quality of the
increase the bargaining power of Chinese infrastructure and political stability are
investors, which in turn would impose considered to be much more important by the
higher costs on the country. This is because investors. Thus fiscal incentives, including
as each region starts offering more and more tax holidays, are not decisive, but incentives
preferential incentives—longer tax holidays, like duty-free imports of raw materials,
lower land and utility charges, and subsidised other privileges (such as preferential fees
inputs, the only gainer of this competition for land or facility use, rapid customs
would be investors, who would get the most clearance, depreciation allowance on capital,
favourable conditions. Therefore, there is a repatriation of profits and invested capital,
need to formulate a long-term coordinated and permission to sell a certain proportion
development plan in consultation with all of output in the domestic market) often
provinces. influence the investment decision. Fiscal
── It is important that SEZs have direct links incentives should be given just to compensate
to major international trading routes at a investors for higher risks of their investment in
low cost, because only in this way SEZs will new environment; they must not be the only
be motivated to produce goods for export reason for investment decision, otherwise the
markets. Customs authorities should be investors will think about moving out of SEZ
involved from the beginning because they as soon as the incentives are abolished.
will be directly dealing in trade activities with ── Industrial Innovation. As production costs
SEZs’ investors. For a successful development or the costs of doing business increase,
of SEZs, it is crucial to have a well-planned SEZs need to be more innovative to move up
initial stage, which includes all major the global value chains (GVC). For SEZs to
development steps in the short run. If this first enhance productivity and sustain long-term
stage takes too long, it will create distrust for competitiveness, they must keep pace with
potential Chinese and Pakistani investors. technological and industrial innovation. To
── Investment Restrain. Industries in which realise this, they need to expand well-focused
Chinese engagement would be allowed, need and applied research and development
to be carefully chosen, as discussed earlier. (R&D) activities, strengthening academia-
Such industries should be chosen that have industry linkages, support targeted business
a strong backward and forward linkages with incubators, and attract talent22.
DZ, especially with industrial clusters. At the ── Develop Relevant Skills. Chinese investors
same time, domestic companies with enough are likely to mostly demand low skilled
abilities and strength to establish production workers for simple assembly and processing,
in the SEZs should get the same preferential whereas Pakistan is interested in transfer of
treatment as Chinese companies. modern technology. Chinese investors should
── Infrastructures. SEZs should attract Chinese be convinced to reciprocate Pakistan’s fiscal
incentives for their transfer of technology.
investment mainly in export sectors. It is,
But this would require sufficient availability
therefore, important that the produced goods
of high-skilled workers, which might
or raw materials and intermediate inputs
be a decisive prerequisite for transfer of
can be transported to the production site
technology. The lack of skilled workers
at a low cost. Thus ensure availability of all
will be a big disadvantage for a successful
the infrastructures, utilities and services for
technology transfer. Therefore, one of the
a modern production processes at global
highest priorities should be to provide
competitive rates.
customised and specialised education and
── Investment Decisiveness. Policymakers training that generate, upgrade and deepen
should not overestimate the possible impact knowledge and skills. Without exception,
of fiscal concessions on the investment training must be constantly updated to keep
decision of Chinese investors. Other factors, pace with changing business and industrial

‘‘ The success of SEZs would require that pragmatism prevail. A very capable private
administration, political will and determination are needed to introduce SEZ cluster –
based industrial transformation, of course, with a cautious and gradual approach, so
that the reform process does not fall captive to vested interest groups

Green Book 2019 87

Diasporas can bring investment for the new phase of
industrialization in the country

development needs. Certain incentives can need to be linked with key infrastructures (like
be accorded to encourage Chinese firms to airports, seaports, railways and highways),
provide training to their local workers. logistics and customs’ services.
── Attract Diasporas. Who can spearhead SEZs ── Create Linkages. The success of SEZs is
activities from the Pakistani side and can be entwined with DZ. SEZs need to be built on
champions and drivers of SEZs. Therefore, local comparative advantages and should
encourage them by giving full confidence that have local suppliers as part of their supply
their investments and transfer of skills and and value chains. SEZs established without
knowledge will be absolutely secured and strong linkage to DZ and local cluster firms
highly valued by the nation. will not be very successful. Government and
── Legal Framework. A predictable and SEZ management should encourage zone
transparent legal and regulatory framework firms to link with local cluster firms through
would be needed to ensure the clarity of roles supply and value chains or sub-contracting/
and responsibilities of various stakeholders, outsourcing relations to create technology
and to provide protection and certainty to and productivity spillover effects23.
SEZ developers and investors. Such a legal ── Administration. An effective and flexible
framework would ensure that SEZs attract the administration, based on a transparent
right investments that will set high business, and consistent legal framework, can be
social and environmental standards. The a catalyst to reduce the costs of doing
legal framework will also buffer SEZs from business substantially. This can be made
unpredictable political risks or interference. possible through the introduction of a single
The legal framework is also important for administration agency, which deals with SEZ
strict enforcement of protection of property investors. But for this agency to be efficient
rights including intellectual property. and effective, it must be empowered to
Absolutely discourage rent-seeking activities, negotiate directly with different governmental
don’t allow investors to exploit policies or bodies.
circumvent the very objective of establishing ── Establish Representative Office. Establish
SEZs. In addition, long-term government a representative office of SEZs in China,
commitment would provide supplementary to disseminate important information to
support for SEZs’ success by ensuring policy potential Chinese investors, about facilities
continuity and uninterrupted provision of and incentives to be available in SEZs. This
public services. office should also provide information on
── Strategic Connectivity. Connectivity among domestic zone and cluster firms, who can
individuals, firms, provinces and countries is a possibly provide ancillary services and
key factor in achieving competitiveness. To be intermediate inputs to Chinese firms or can
a catalyst for structural transformation, SEZs join hands for joint ventures. Also establish

‘‘ Fiscal incentives should be given just to compensate investors for higher risks of
their investment in new environment; they must not be the only reason for investment
decision, otherwise the investors will think about moving out of SEZ as soon as the
incentives are abolished

88 Green Book 2019


‘‘ Chinese firms and Pakistani clusters as well as Diasporas can play important roles
in the success of SEZs by attracting investment, technologies, and management skills;
generating learning and technology spillovers; and ultimately helping to build modern
industrial capacity

a labour service company that can assist and management skills; generating learning and
Chinese investors to find qualified workers, technology spillovers; and ultimately helping to
and can provide information on wages and build modern industrial capacity.
local labour contract requirements. Efficient infrastructures and ease of doing
── Reliable Supplies. Chinese producers in business coupled with incentives can provide
SEZs may not demand intermediate inputs a great opportunity for Chinese companies, DZ
from local suppliers because of low quality or companies and Diasporas to invest in SEZs.
if the timely supply is not guaranteed. In this
case, it is important to incentivise domestic Conclusions
producers to upgrade their production Following conclusions need to be kept in front
technology, improve their management while establishing SEZs to maximise static and
quality and make their supply more reliable. dynamic socio-economic benefits for the country:
In addition, the logistic infrastructures have ── Make SEZs development as a core of national
to be improved so that intermediate inputs to development strategy and treat them as
and from DZ and cluster firms can be shipped platforms for transfer of technology and
just-in-time. knowledge beyond their impact on economic
In sum, SEZs must be built on the basis of local growth and productive job creation.
comparative advantage. ── Encourage local investment in SEZs, this
A long-term vision is important because will allay the concerns of locals that Chinese
industrial transformation via SEZs can take investors are accorded with various incentives
many years. In this regard, it is important for at high opportunity cost to DZ.
policymakers to undertake joint actions to ── Local participation by firms and workers in
promote synergies and coordination among SEZs is critical to realise productivity and
different stake holders. Successful SEZs need technology spillovers; therefore, incentivise
a holistic and systematic approach proposed local firms to invest in SEZs and facilitate
earlier, which carries all the important aspects of workers to avail job opportunities in SEZs.
building conducive industrial and business eco- ── The industry selection for SEZs should be
system. More specifically, SEZs need a strategic determined by consulting local and Chinese
location with sound infrastructures and strong stakeholders. This is important for the
commercial viability, strong institutional support, alignment of activities with domestic needs in
effective one-stop-shop services, and a robust legal terms of industrial development and that any
framework. Government should restrict its own resulting technology spillover is more readily
direct involvement in SEZ management and should absorbed by domestic clusters and DZ firms.
transfer maximum responsibility to private agents. ── Systemic constraints to SEZ development will
Chinese firms and Pakistani clusters as well as take longer time to overcome, but they must
Diasporas can play important roles in the success not be neglected. Government must prepare
of SEZs by attracting investment, technologies, local firms ready to absorb technology. This

Green Book 2019 89

First Science Technology Park established in
NUST (Islamabad) with Chinese Collaboration

calls for substantial investment in local R&D A long-term vision is important
institutions and the provision of incentives
for firms to train their workers, and adopt best because industrial transformation via
management practices. SEZs can take many years
── Remove administrative and regulatory
constraints to local supplier firms. Provide a
platform to SEZ and DZ firms to work together Establishment of SEZs and their linkage with
to create strong and sustainable mutual/joint domestic cluster and DZ firms is not likely to be an easy
partnerships. one and may not please everyone. Therefore, Pakistan
── Set up training arrangements with assistance needs to ensure that all (Chinese and Pakistani)
from Chinese vocational institutions. stakeholders are on board and they patiently play
Establish industrial technology parks, as is their constructive respective roles for the success
being established in National University of of SEZs. Needless to say, there will be heavy cost to
Science & Technology (NUST) with Chinese establish SEZs and other requisite infrastructures that
assistance, to meet technology needs of SEZs will be borne by Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan must
and DZ firms. ensure reciprocal compensation from SEZ firms in
terms of visible and significant transfer of technology
── Given the complex and heterogeneous and knowledge to DZ and cluster firms, creation of
environments in which SEZs would operate, jobs for local workforce, sizeable exports to foreign
a clear legal framework is needed to guide markets, and investment in complementary activities
their operations. Such a framework should by establishing joint ventures. These should be at
include clear roles and responsibilities for the the core of the SEZ strategy to transform the Pakistan
government and private sector. economy.

Notes binding constraints that cannot be addressed through other policy options.
1. In addition, the big three international rating agencies, Moody’s, Standard & If the constraints can be addressed through countrywide reforms, then SEZs
Poor’s, and Fitch in 2018 graded Pakistan’s economy with “B3 (negative)”, “B” might not be necessary (see, Rodrik, Dani (2004) “Rethinking growth policies
and “B (negative)”, respectively, i.e., the economy is highly speculative. This in the developing world.” Draft of the Luca d’Agliano Lecture in Development
suggests that if right measures are not timely introduced then the economy Economics, delivered on October 8, 2004, in Torino, Italy).
may plunge into bankruptcy. 10. See, Cirera, Xavier and Raith W. D. Lakshman (2014) The impact of export
2. Demographic dividend is the economic growth potential that may result processing zones on employment, wages and labour conditions in developing
from changes in the age structure of population, especially when the share countries: systematic review. Journal of Development Effectiveness, 9:3, 344-
of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age share of the 360.
population, so number of dependents are less than number of workers in the 11. See, Zeng, Douglas Zhihua (2016) Special economic zones: lessons from the
labour force. Because of this change in age distribution, fewer resources would global experience. PEDL Synthesis Paper Series, No. 1.
be required to meet the needs of the dependent age groups and thus resources 12. See, Mahmood, Zafar (2017) A win-win proposal to establish China-Pakistan
are freed up for their employability in productive activities, this is called the special economic zones. Hilal, October 2017.
“demographic dividend.” 13. See, Zeng (2016) Ibid.
3. A Chinese proverb says, ‘if you want to be rich build a road’. It basically points 14. See, Johansson, Helena and Lars Nilsson (1997) Export process zone as
to positive externality of building road infrastructure. So roads and power catalysts. World Development, 25:12, 2115-28.
infrastructures provide sound base for industrialisation. 15. These institutions may include producers’ associations, chambers of
4. See, Mahmood, Zafar (2018a) Opportunities and challenges of special commerce and industry, trade unions, local governments and local banks.
economic zones under CPEC for Pakistan. S3H Monograph Series 01:2018, Their participation is essential for the success of SEZs.
School of Social Sciences and Humanities, National University of Sciences and 16. See, Mahmood (2018a) Ibid.
Technology, Islamabad. 17. External economies-of-scale imply that as the size of an industry grows larger,
5. Supply chain is a tool of business transformation, which establishes a network the average costs of doing business within the industry falls. This may occur
between suppliers (of raw materials), manufacturers (semi- or manufactured due to increased specialisation or training of workers, faster innovation or
products), wholesalers, distributors, retailers, and the end consumer—a link shared supplier relationships.
from the point of origin to its final destination, i.e., consumption. Value chain 18. Also see, Mahmood, Zafar (2018b) Potential threats and challenges to the
is referred to a range of activities that adds value at every single stage in special economic zones under CPEC. Chapter 14, in Zafar Iqbal Cheema (ed.)
designing, producing, and delivering a quality product to the user. “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: Potentials and Prospects”, Strategic
6. In general, if implemented successfully, SEZs accord two types of economic Vision Institute, Islamabad.
benefits: ‘static’ or ‘direct’ and ‘dynamic’ or ‘indirect’. Static benefits include 19. See, Krugman, Paul, Maurice Obstfeld and Marc Meltiz (2017) International
direct employment creation, export growth and export diversification, revenue economics: theory and policy. New York: Pearson 11th Edition.
generation, and foreign exchange earnings. Whereas, dynamic benefits 20. See, Krugman, Paul and Anthony Venables (1996) Integration, specialisation,
include indirect employment creation, skills upgrading, technology transfer and adjustment. European Economic Review, 40:3, 959-968.
and innovation, economic diversification, demonstration effect arising from 21. See, Farole, Thomas (2011) “Special economic zones in Africa: comparing
application of ‘best practices’, regional development, and productivity performance and learning from global experience.” Washington, D.C.: The
enhancement of local firms. These benefits elucidate SEZs’ acceptance in World Bank.
general in the country and by local communities in particular (See, Zeng, 22. See, Zhang, Ming (2008) What can cities do to enhance competitiveness?
Douglas Zhihua (2010) Building engines for growth and competitiveness Local policies and actions for innovation. En breve. Washington, D.C.: The
in China: experience with special economic zones & industrial clusters. World Bank. Retrieved on July 13, 2018 from: http://documents.worldbank.
Washington, D.C.: The World Bank). org/curated/en/2008/07/10133626/can-cities-enhance-competitiveness-
7. Comprehensive reforms could not be introduced earlier because of strong localpolicies-actions-innovation.
resistance from various local interest groups. 23. See, Zeng, Douglas Zhihua (2015) “Global experiences with special economic
8. These constraints broadly range from regulatory regimes and infrastructure to zones: focus on China and Africa.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
land acquisition and trade logistics. 7240. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.
9. Thus, SEZs should only be used to address market failures (distortions) or
Imtiaz Gul is the Executive
Director of Centre for Research
and Security Studies (CRSS),

China in the last decade or so has emerged as a big economic connector on the back of the Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI), proposed by President Xi Jinping. Soon after becoming the most powerful person
in contemporary China in 2012, Xi embarked on the most ambitious plan any country has ever conceived.
The BRI, But he was also conscious of the pitfalls in this regional and global connectivity undertaking.
One of these pitfalls is the war against terrorism in Afghanistan and its consequences for the rest of the
world. Particularly after the bulk drawdown of the US-NATO troops from the war-battered country in
December 2014, it became clear that regional powers shall have to fill the ensuing vacuum and create
firewalls against the growing menace of trans-border terrorism. China’s appointment of a special envoy
for counter-terrorism and special out-reach to both Afghanistan and Pakistan underscored the concerns
arising out of the spiralling terrorist violence in Afghanistan. Beijing was also conscious of the fact that
success of the BRI, of which the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project, hinged
on getting a handle on terrorism-induced violence. And this, the Chinese concluded, depended on a
regional security architecture involving regional stakeholders such as Russia, India and Pakistan. That
is why China has been pushing the idea of a regional security architecture since 2014 to successfully fight
terrorism and terrorist proxies. This paper argues that since 2014 or so China, cognizant of the growing
Indo-US influence in the region, has been attempting to bring these countries plus Afghanistan together
for a regional Afghan peace and counter-terrorism policy, which it believes is crucial for the success of
all BRI-related initiatives aimed at connecting China with the world – north and south of it. By pursuing
this dream of trade connectivity, China has assumed an unusual role in the global war against terrorism,
without deploying high-handed tactics against smaller countries, a perception that accompanies the
US counter-terrorism policies. This unique focus on the need for a regional anti-terror strategy comes
in handy for Pakistan too; following 17 years of turmoil following its partnership in the global war on
terror, Pakistan has suffered enormous losses – both human and material. China happens to be the only
country to empathise with the complex situation that Pakistan faces and herein lies a chance for it to
align its counter-terror policies with China and other regional powers such as Russia for better and lasting
solutions to problems induced by the trans-border terrorist networks.

Keywords: Regional Peace, Chinese BRI, Counter Terrorism Strategies, Indo-US Nexus, Pakistan and
Peace Process

Green Book 2019 91


uietly, but resolutely, China has been For the past 13 years the US and
choreographing its Afghanistan and NATO have been playing a major role in
counter-terror policy in consultation Afghanistan and we made a contribution
with regional stakeholders, Pakistan
and Russia in particular. With this and gave them support - but now with
quiet diplomacy, it has emerged as the US leaving, Afghanistan is facing
the economically strong bulwark against terrorism,
a power that is underpinning regional counter- a critical period……we are ready to do
terrorism efforts through its economic clout. more, we want to play a bigger role
Apparently, the impending US-NATO Ambassador Sun Yuxi
drawdown in December 2014 served as the trigger
for Beijing’s activism on the Afghan front.
“For the past 13 years the US and NATO have
Salahuddin Rabbani, with the obvious objective
been playing a major role in Afghanistan and we
made a contribution and gave them support – but of paving way for bringing Afghanistan’s warring
now with the US leaving, Afghanistan is facing a factions to the negotiating table.
critical period……we are ready to do more, we want
to play a bigger role.” Engagement with Afghanistan and
This excerpt from China’s special representative Taliban
for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Sun Days after the Taliban trip to Beijing, Deng
Yuxi’s rare interview with the BBC back in 2014 was Xijun, the Chinese special envoy for Afghanistan,
quite instructive.1
flew into Kabul to convey to President Ashraf Ghani
Ambassador Sun went on to offer to even host that his country had “encouraged the Taliban
an intra-Afghan dialogue. during our contacts with them to join the peace
“We would welcome the Taliban in any neutral process,” Ghani’s office confirmed after Xijun’s
venue such as in China …we will make negotiations meeting with Ghani.2
happen but the process must be Afghan-owned “China has always conveyed to the Taliban
and Afghan-led – the agenda must be proposed by that it recognises the Afghan government and the
President Ashraf Ghani,’’ he underscored. president and that talks are the only option for
The appointment of Sun Yuxi, 63, who has them,” the statement quoted Xijun as saying.3
known Afghanistan since 1981 as a young diplomat, Interestingly, preceding the Taliban trip to
was itself a clear manifestation of Beijing’s strong Beijing was a close consultation among Chinese,
desire to get involved in Afghanistan. Russian and Pakistani officials in December
Nearly two years later in January 2016, Beijing 2016 at Moscow,4 where all welcomed the lifting
played host to the Afghan foreign minister, of international sanctions on some Taliban

defeating terrorist groups and restoring peace in

Ambassador Sun Afghanistan, considered a sanctuary for several
Yuxi China’s Special pan-Islamist terror groups such as Al-Qaeda, Daesh
Representative for as well as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement
Afghanistan and (ETIM), which specifically relates to the Uighur
Pakistan Sunni Muslims of Xinjiang.
China also considers peace and stability
as central to curbing drugs that are grown and
processed in ungoverned spaces of Afghanistan.
Some of it travels through to its markets via
Xinjiang too.

‘‘ Bombings have never stopped, even

in the capital. Afghanistan shares
a border with China, so in this case
China must get involved to promote the
leaders. Their Qatar office was quick to appreciate
talks and to secure the stability in the
the outcome of the Moscow meeting as an region
acknowledgment by major stakeholders “that the
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is a political and Du Youkang, Director of the South Asia Studies
military force.” Centre at Fudan University in Shanghai
By inviting the Afghan foreign minister,
followed by the Taliban delegation and active
participation in the Moscow meeting, the Chinese Narcotics indeed is part of the deadly mix that
leadership underscored its quest for regional peace keeps Afghanistan on tenterhooks and creates the
– whatever way possible – which it considers space for all kinds of non-state actors including
critical for its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). drugs’ smugglers, criminals, and terrorists. A
Chinese scholars and former diplomats point former US commander in Afghanistan, General
out that with the economic rise of their country, John Allen, who commanded 150,000 US and NATO
their leaders feel the pressure that comes with the forces from July 2011 to February 2013, too, pointed
global economic status. to these elements as a source of continued strife in
“The big backdrop is that the United States will Afghanistan.
have withdrawn most of its troops from Afghanistan General Allen gave his assessment at the
with the antiterrorism mission unfinished, which is Brookings Institution in May 2018.
leaving the country a mess,” said Du Youkang, who “In my mind, there was a triangular threat to
worked in Islamabad, Pakistan, as a diplomat and Afghanistan’s future but also, in a military context,
is now the director of the South Asia Studies Centre you had the ideological insurgency, which we would
at Fudan University in Shanghai.
“Bombings have never stopped, even in the
capital. Afghanistan shares a border with China, so
in this case China must get involved to promote the
talks and to secure the stability in the region.” 5

Securing Belt and Road Initiative?

Another reason for China’s engagement
has been the BRI’s flagship project – the China
Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Both Beijing
and Islamabad know that Afghanistan remains a
critical trans-border transportation hub to connect
with Central Asia.
The Uighur Islamist insurgency in its western
Xinjiang region, the largest in size and rich with
mineral wealth, is another factor that may be
fuelling Beijing’s desire to proactively get involved
in Afghanistan but the larger focus remains on

Green Book 2019 93


‘‘ Narcotics indeed is part of the deadly mix that keeps Afghanistan on tenterhooks
and creates the space for all kinds of non-state actors including drugs’ smugglers,
criminals, and terrorists. A former US commander in Afghanistan, General John Allen,
who commanded 150,000 US and NATO forces from July 2011 to February 2013, too,
pointed to these elements as a source of continued strife in Afghanistan

Another trilateral forum comprising China, US

and Afghanistan is pursuing the same objectives
but – ostensibly for political reasons - Chinese
officials would not publicise it as much as they do
with other tracks.
No surprise that between February and July
2017 alone, defence officials from Israel, Turkey,
Pakistan and the UAE visited Beijing to discuss
security cooperation with China. Beijing also sent
the PLA Navy (PLAN) to visit the region on several
occasions. Navy ships called on ports in several
Middle Eastern countries, including Iran, Oman,
Kuwait, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and
the UAE. Some of these port-calls were the first
such visits in years.7
euphemistically called the Taliban, you had the drug
spoke of the Chinese Navy’s permanent presence in
enterprise which fuelled an awful lot of insurgent and
the waters of the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea
criminal behaviour and then you had the criminal
since 2008, as a result of its continued participation
patronage network. I don’t believe we were properly
in counter-piracy operations. Meanwhile, China’s
organised frankly to deal with that.”6 first overseas military base in Djibouti also became
operational in 2017.
Convergence with Regional Actors The same year in March, China launched the
This is where positions of China, Russia, second joint counter-terrorism and humanitarian
Pakistan, Iran and Turkey converge, allowing rescue drill – Dragon Gold 2018 – with Cambodia
China to be the visible force behind a coordinated at a training field in the Maras Prov Mountains. It
regional counter-terrorism policy. involved some 280 soldiers of the Royal Cambodian
China, Afghanistan and Pakistan political and Armed Forces (RCAF) and 216 soldiers of the
counter-terrorism cooperation dialogues – both at Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).8
official as well as the civil society level. It is also This reflected the seriousness with which
part of a regional group ‘Six Plus One’, comprising Beijing pursued its focus on counter-terrorism,
US, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran and taking countries of its entire neighbourhood on
Afghanistan. board for the trans-border phenomenon.

China had long been averse to getting involved Counter-Terror Diplomacy Expands
in the Afghan or any other conflicts, not wanting
No coincidence, therefore, that the China
to be seen as taking sides. But Afghan officials,
Association for Friendship, a helping arm of the
beginning under the administration of President
Ministry for Public Security for outreach, organised
Hamid Karzai, have been insistent, pressing
the first unofficial counter-terrorism symposium in
Chinese leaders at every opportunity to use their
Beijing involving Pakistan and Afghanistan and
influence on Islamabad to curb the Taliban.9
the hosts.10
China was also part of a similar track known
as the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) but
it came to a literal grinding halt after a US drone Chen Zhimin, President of China Association for Friendship
strike killed Taliban leader Mulla Akhtar Mansoor
in May 2016.
Li Shaoxian, a Chinese scholar and vice-
president of the Chinese Association of Middle
East Studies, said he believed it was important
for China to establish direct contact with Taliban
“ I went to the country in 2000, and I have to
say that the Taliban simply will not be wiped out,
because they are deeply rooted in the rank-and-
file of the society and are a representative of the
Pashtuns,” Mr. Li said, referring to the majority ethnic
group in Afghanistan. “So now Beijing, Washington
and Kabul have all accepted the fact that, well, we
Chen Zhimin, the President of the Association,
need to include them in the peace and reconciliation
opened the dialogue and declared that the cross-
border mobility of terrorist networks and their
In broader sense, the Chinese push for a technical capabilities represented a major threat to
multi-lateral engagement on peace in Afghanistan all regional stakeholders.
dovetails its strong, but less articulated, focus on
At the same time Zhimin, who enjoys the rank
trans-national terrorist outfits, which it describes
of a minister, underscored the need for improving
as a “common security threat’’.
connectivity among all regional powers. Real
connectivity would deny terrorists the chance
to network and help break the nexus between
terrorists and criminal networks, Zhimin said. At
the same time the President acknowledged that
both Afghanistan and Pakistan had been suffering
because of being at the forefront of the anti-terror
war. ‘‘We are with you, thank you for fighting ETIM
and thank you for standing up to other terrorist and
criminal networks’’, he said.
Only two weeks earlier, senior Chinese officials
went into an unprecedented huddle with their
Russian, Iranian and Pakistani counterparts at
Islamabad, Pakistan’s capital to share thoughts
on developments around them, with a particular
focus on the buildup of Islamic State in turmoil-hit

‘‘ I went to the country in 2000, and I have to say that the Taliban simply will not
be wiped out, because they are deeply rooted in the rank-and-file of the society and
are a representative of the Pashtuns. So now Beijing, Washington and Kabul have all
accepted the fact that, well, we need to include them in the peace and reconciliation
Li Shaoxian, Vice-President of the Chinese Association of Middle East Studies

Green Book 2019 95


Daesh-IS: The Common Denominator Nebenzya said, reiterating the Russian view, which
Iran, which shares a long border with Afghanistan,
A spokesperson for Moscow’s Foreign
Intelligence Service also confirmed that the also shares.
emergence of IS in Afghanistan prompted the
deliberations in Islamabad, and that director of the
Russian spy agency, Sergei Naryshkin represented
his country in a meeting that shocked many in
western capitals.
“The conference reached understanding of
the importance of coordinated steps to prevent
the trickling of IS terrorists from Syria and Iraq to
Afghanistan, where from they would pose risks for
neighbouring countries,” Sergei Ivanov told state-
run TASS media outlet.12
This meeting also signalled a synergy of views
on the mysterious phenomenon of Islamic State
of Khorassan, or Daesh, in Afghanistan. Although
China never took a public position on the Russian
Washington, though, dismissed the charges as
allegations that the IS is a US-sponsored entity,
rumours, and an attempt to justify Moscow’s links
particularly in northern Afghan provinces next
to the Taliban insurgency.
to the border with Central Asian countries, yet its
presence at the quadrilateral meeting in Islamabad IS calls its Afghan branch Khorasan Province,
was viewed by many in the West as an endorsement or ISKP, and it routinely carries out deadly suicide
bombings in the war-hit country and occasionally
of Moscow’s view on Daesh.
plots such attacks in neighbouring Pakistan.
Vasily Nebenzya,
Russian Envoy to
the United Nations

Russian envoy to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya,

while addressing a Security Council meeting on
Afghanistan in June 2018 had asserted that IS is
creating training camps in Afghanistan for its
fighters, including those who come from Central
Asian States.
“This is a group, which has up to 10,000 fighters
in its ranks, and it is already active in at least nine
out of 34 provinces … and is constantly consolidating
its positions in the north of the country, turning it into Pakistan – Victim of suicide attacks
a springboard for its expansion into Central Asia,”

‘‘ Russian Envoy to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, while addressing a Security Council
meeting on Afghanistan in June 2018 had asserted that IS is creating training camps in
Afghanistan for its fighters, including those who come from Central Asian States

96 Green Book 2019


anti-terrorism efforts in an objective and impartial
Although Pakistan failed to escape way, an attempt to shoulder some of Pakistan’s
being grey-listed by the Financial political burden.
Action Task Force (FATF) in June 2018, “The government and people of Pakistan
China stood by Pakistan in urging have contributed and sacrificed a lot in their fight
against terrorism and made great efforts in ground
the international community to view operations as well as combating terrorism in the
the country’s anti-terrorism efforts financial sector,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu
in an objective and impartial way, an Kang said at a routine press conference.14
attempt to shoulder some of Pakistan’s
Lu’s comments came after some countries
persuaded members of the FATF last week to
political burden place Pakistan on the “grey list” of nations with
inadequate efforts to control terror financing.
‘‘China, as an all-weather strategic cooperation
Pakistani officials also believe the terrorist partner of Pakistan, will continue to strengthen
group has established strong bases in “ungoverned communication and coordination with Pakistan in
spaces” in Afghanistan and plans cross-border anti-terrorism cooperation’’, Lu said.
terrorist attacks from there. “ ….we stressed many times that Pakistan has
made important sacrifices and contributions to the
global anti-terrorism cause and the countries should
strengthen anti-terrorism cooperation on the basis
of mutual respect instead of finger pointing at each
other. This is not conducive to the global efforts,”
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang
said during his regular press briefing here.15
The spokesperson underscored that the
Chinese side opposed linking of terrorism with
any certain country and disagreed to place the
responsibility of counter-terrorism on a certain
country. “First, and the foremost, I would like to
say that terrorism is common enemy of the world
cracking down on the terrorism needs joint efforts
from the international community”, he said.

They also cite US military assessments that the

Afghan government controls less than 60 per cent
of the territory, particularly referring to estimates
by John Sopko, the US Special Inspector General
for Afghan Reconstruction (SIGAR) .
Islamabad, Moscow, Beijing and Tehran
maintain contacts with the Taliban, saying they
are meant to persuade the insurgency to seek a
negotiated settlement to the Afghan war.
But the diplomatic ties with insurgents have
upset both Kabul and Washington because they
see them as an attempt to legitimise the Taliban’s
violent campaign.

Sino-Pak Synergy on Counter-Terrorism “The government and people of Pakistan have

contributed and sacrificed a lot in their fight
Although Pakistan failed to escape being grey- against terrorism’’
listed by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF)13
in June 2018, China stood by Pakistan in urging China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Lu Kang
the international community to view the country’s

Green Book 2019 97


Using Shanghai Cooperation

Organisation (SCO) for inter-state
synergy on terrorism
At the same time, Beijing also kept trying to
bring India and Pakistan closer at multi-lateral
fora such as the maiden joint counter-terrorism
exercises under the SCO held in Russia in August
“We sincerely hope that they can enhance
their dialogue and cooperation both bilaterally and
and Pakistan - was the largest under the SCO
within multilateral mechanisms like the SCO, work
charter with the participation of India and Pakistan
together to improve their ties and jointly maintain
for the first time.
regional peace and stability,” the spokesperson
added,16 Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson The drill plays a positive role in deepening
Hua Chunying said at a news briefing, adding that defence and security cooperation among member
both India and Pakistan are important countries in countries, enhancing capacity in tackling new
South Asia and that ‘‘stability in their ties was the threats and challenges and safeguarding regional
key to peace and development in the region and the peace and stability, China’s Ministry of National
world.” Defence spokesperson Ren Guoqiang said.
The previous SCO counter-terrorism drills had
mainly been limited to Central Asia. But because of
the entry of India and Pakistan, the SCO’s counter-
terrorism mission had expanded to South Asia.
The effective counter-terrorism cooperation
among SCO countries has greatly undermined
terrorist groups in Central Asia in recent years
and it’s expected that this cooperation will also
boost stability in South Asia, a region facing a
more complicated counter-terrorism situation
with a variety of active terrorist groups,” Li Wei, a
counter-terrorism expert at the China Institute of
Contemporary International Relations in Beijing,
Sun Zhuangzhi, a professor at the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences called the “Peace
Mission 2018” a “rare opportunity for Pakistan
The counter-terrorism drill by SCO countries and India,” which have long been involved in the
– involving at least 3,000 soldiers from China, military conflict, to enhance military exchanges
Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, India and trust. This could improve regional stability.17

98 Green Book 2019

Peace Mission 2018 – SCO Countries Joint Counter-Terrorism Exercise, Russia (August 2018)

Conclusion One can, therefore, assume that success of

With the rise in its economic might, China has China in counter-terrorism translates into gains for
also emerged as the biggest proponent of peace and Pakistan as well. This has also helped in creating
the advocate of a regional approach in countering a regional ownership for a war that knows no
the complex web of global terrorism. Beijing’s boundaries but can still be restricted and effectively
focus on this particular issue has also dovetailed countered if major stakeholders, including China
with Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy as well its long- and Russia, can synergise their thoughts and
drawn and hard battle against terrorist forces. We actions.
have been fighting monsters who were receiving This represents a great opportunity for
support from both in and outside the country, said Pakistan to align its counter-terror policies with
General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan Army Chief China and other regional powers such as Russia for
in an off-the-record talk with three dozen leading better and lasting solutions to problems induced
journalists and writers.18 by the trans-border terrorist networks. At the same
It indeed took the Pakistani state security time, the country needs to draw on experiences of
apparatus to get a handle on the various China in particular in not only counter-terrorism
proponents of terror – most of them external but also in maintaining trade relations even with
proxies – between August 2008, when the countries with which it is locked in political and
Operation Sherdil (Lion’s Heart) was launched territorial disputes.
in Bajaur tribal region, to Swat Operation
(May 2009) to the South Waziristan Operation
(October 2009) to Operation Zarb-e-Azb , North

Waziristan (June 2014).
China was among the few friendly countries We have been fighting monsters who
that demonstrated visible understanding of the
complexity of the situation and the calibrated
were receiving support from both in
Pakistani response to it. Leaders and officials in and outside the country
Beijing also seem to learn from the way Pakistani
forces – through a multi-pronged but sequenced General Qamar Javed Bajwa
strategy – attacked, disrupted and neutralised COAS Pakistan Army
most of the terrorist outfits.

Green Book 2019 99


Notes 11. https://www.voanews.com/a/pakistan-hosts-unusual-meeting-of-regional-

1. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30273431, 2014 spymasters/4478723.html
2. https://crssblog.com/2017/03/14/future-prospects-of-taliban-china-afghan- 12. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1756610/1-pakistan-hosts-spy-chiefs-russia-
peace-negotiations-tahir-khan/ china-iran/
3. https://tribune.com.pk/story/1348055/afghan-talibans-political-negotiators- 13. FATF is a 37-nation inter-governmental body established in 1989 to combat
visit-china/ money laundering, terrorist financing and other related threats to the integrity
4. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-russia-pakistan-c- of the international financial system.
idUSKBN14G19I 14. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1091020.shtml, 2018/2/27
5. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/25/world/asia/china-considers-larger- 15. https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2018/01/08/china-appreciates-pakistans-
role-in-afghanistan-peace-process.html sacrifices-in-anti-terror-cause/
6. https://dailytimes.com.pk/246503/us-officials-question-their-states-af-pak- 16. http://www.cpecinfo.com/news/stable-pakistan-india-relationship-
narrative/+http://southasianmonitor.com/2018/06/12/us-officials-question- important-anti-terror-drills-a-way-forward-for-the-two-countries-chinese-
their-states-af-pak-narrative-2/ foreign-ministry/NTc3OQ==
7. https://www.merics.org/en/china-monitor/content/3211 17. https://dailytimes.com.pk/289143/china-hails-participation-of-india-
8. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-03/17/c_137046090.htm pakistan-in-sco-anti-terror- + drill/http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/
9. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/25/world/asia/china-considers-larger- xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/t1539127.shtml
role-in-afghanistan-peace-process.html 18. The author was part of the meeting that took place on March 9, 2018.
10. The tripodal dialogue, held July 2018, involved high-ranking Ministry of
Foreign Affairs officials and intelligentia from Afghanistan, Pakistani private
sector security and terrorism experts (including the author) and Chinese
officials as well as academia. The first official counter-terror (CT) trilateral
dialogue had taken place in December 2017 at Beijing.

100 Green Book 2019


Ms Sidra Jamil Bajwa is an adjunct
lecturer at International Islamic
University, Islamabad


“Our Resistance War is a long and hard struggle and we
have mainly to rely on our own forces”1
Mao Tse Tung

With the Karachi bus attack of 2015 , Pakistan has become centre of attention for international media and
scholarship viz-a-viz footprints of Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS). Anti-Pakistan elements did not
hesitate to label the country as the birth place of ISIS without any concrete evidence. A successful claim
of footprint requires its presence, scope and membership of ISIS in Pakistan. This paper discusses the
David Galula’s prerequisites of successful insurgency and examines that to what extent Pakistan meets
the prerequisites of a successful insurgency, required for any non-state actors including ISIS to hold
footprints in the country. The current research is based on secondary sources including books, scholarly
articles and newspapers. The review of literature reflects that the countries having footprints of ISIS are
either politically or socially instable, and ISIS formed hybrid composition with local groups to advance
its ventures. The present research reveals that Pakistan’s counter-insurgency potentials are adequate to
prevent the country against any non-state actor including ISIS. Pakistan does not meet the prerequisites
of Galula’s successful insurgency, therefore, it is almost impossible for ISIS or any other non-state actor to
have footprints in Pakistan.

Keywords: Counter-Insurgency Potentials, Non-State Actors, ISIS, Pakistan

Green Book 2019 101


issimilar to delinquency and poverty, ISIS is trying to achieve its presence, scope and
terrorism on international canvas is a membership that can be labelled as “Global” in real
new phenomenon.2 Modern terrorism sense. Terrorist activities of ISIS are not confined to
has well established roots around Middle-East only, but the organisation has carried
the globe, though it has history of out brutal attacks in Europe, North Africa, Asia,
only one hundred and twenty-five America and Africa. Since June 2014, with the
years, categorised into four waves.3 The first global declaration of its caliphate till Sep 2018, ISIS has
or truly international terror incident occurred in conducted two hundred twenty five in numerous
Russia in 1880s, which gave birth to “Anarchist countries other than Iraq and Syria.9 These terrorist
Wave of Terrorism” that spread across the Western attacks have killed more than 7,734 people and
Europe, Balkan and Asian regions.4 Anarchist wave wounded thousands more.10
is considered as the first wave of terrorism, followed For the first time, ISIS took the responsibility
by “Anti-Colonial Wave,” which started in 1920s of carrying out terrorist attack in Pakistan in May
and continued for around forty years. Afterwards, 2015, which killed forty-six people on the bus in
“New Left Wave” emerged, which longed till the Karachi.11 With claim of ISIS, taking responsibility
end of twentieth century, leaving some active cells for Karachi bus attack engendered a new debate on
till date in Nepal, Spain, United Kingdom, Peru and footprints of ISIS in Pakistan.
Columbia5. The fourth and existing wave of modern Academics and civil-military bigwigs kept
terrorism is called “Religious Wave,” which started on nulling and voiding the casting shadows of
in 1979 and will end till 2025.6 With the start of ISIS in Pakistan, but international media not
religious wave, number of revolutionary campaigns, only exaggerated the issue negatively but tried to
insurgencies and civil wars emerged globally such relate and link Pakistan in every best possible way.
as Buddhist-Hindu rivalry in Sri Lanka, Khalistan Some people labelled Pakistan as “Birth Place of
Movement in India, Christian Identity Movement ISIS” without any hesitation and hiccup.12 Arrest
in United States, struggle for Akhand Bharat of three hundred militants and video released by
(undivided India) in India and Muslim atrocities the students of Jamia Hafsa (religious seminary)
by Jews in Palestine. Islam is at heart of this wave supporting and inviting ISIS was used to second
because international media exaggerates the terror the left-hand propaganda against Pakistan.13-14
attacks by Muslim at maximum.7
A large number of so-called Islamic militant

organisations appeared to implement their
version of Islam on international canvas. The most For the first time, ISIS took the
significant, lethal and intense terror activities are responsibility of carrying out terrorist
conducted by so-called Islamic groups globally.8
From Al-Qaeda to Taliban, and now Islamic State of attack in Pakistan in May 2015, which
Iraq and Syria (ISIS), non-states actors conducted killed forty six people on the bus in
brutal terrorist attacks on the name of religion.
Karachi. With claim of ISIS, taking
ISIS was formed in 2003 with the aim of
responsibility for Karachi bus attack
establishing its own caliphate—an Islamic empire
governed by a Caliph, who they consider the engendered a new debate on foot
actual successor of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH). prints of ISIS in Pakistan

A quarrelsome argumentation at academic
level is going on between those who second and Revolution, insurgency and civil war
who deny the footprints of ISIS in Pakistan. To is the pursuit of policy of a group, inside
untangle the myths of presence and prospects of a sovereign, by all means and resources.
ISIS in the country, it is important to consider the
very nature and characteristics of revolutions,
These phenomena are always internal
insurgencies and civil wars. (intra-state) not external
According to Clausewitz, “revolution,
insurgency and civil war is the pursuit of policy Clausewitz
of a group, inside a sovereign, by all means and
resources. These phenomena are always internal
(intra-state) not external”.15 ISIS: Evolution, Demise and Re-Emergence
The statement of Clausewitz defined that ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Al—Sham)18 is
insurgency and civil war are primarily emerged known by various acronyms—IS, ISIL and Daesh.19
from inside the country that may gain external ISIS has its pedigrees in Al-Qaeda which was
support at latter stages.16 founded by Jordanian national Abu Musab Al-
Zarqawi. Al-Zarqawi was sentenced for fifteen years
by Jordan on the acts of terrorism during Soviet-
Afghan war. In prison, Al-Zarqawi met his old
companion from Afghan Jihad, Abu- Muhammad
Al-Maqdisi — a Jihadi theorist. Fundamentalist
theology and jurisprudence of Al-Maqdisi left great
impact on Al-Zarqawi’s personality.20
Al-Maqdisi articulated the doctrine called
al-Wala’ w-al-Bara’, meaning “Loyalty and
Disavowal”. This concept expects the Muslim
to distance themselves from everything that
contradicts from ‘Sharia’, for example, democracy.21
Al-Zarqawi was pardoned in 1999 and went
to Afghanistan.22 In 2002, Al-Zarqawi escaped
David Galula (1919–1967) — A French military officer to Kurdish dominated Iraq held by Al-Qaeda
and scholar who was influential in developing the associated faction called Ansar Al-Islam.23 In 2004,
theory and practice of counter insurgency warfare he gave bay’a (oath of loyalty and allegiance) to
Usama Bin Ladin, and renamed his organisation
Qai’datal Jihad fi Bilad Al-Rafidayn (Al-Qaeda in the
From the statement of Clausewitz, it is evident
Land of the Two Rivers, or more commonly known
that in modern nation state system, an international
in the West as Al-Qaeda in Iraq, AQI), which was
sovereign can be invaded by another sovereign,
initially called Al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (monotheism
but foreign insurgents cannot penetrate into a state
and jihad).24 In 2006, Mujahidin Shura Council
without local support. Insurgency is always carried
(MSC) was formed to unify the foreign jihadi
out by local groups. Hence, it is impossible for ISIS
groups fighting in Iraq, and to maintain the AQI’s
to prosper in the context of presence, membership
and scope in Pakistan, without having alliance
with local insurgents, particularly the Tehreek-e-
Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operational in Federally
Administered Tribal Area (FATA). David Galula’s
theory of ‘Successful Insurgency’ states that a
successful insurgency has some characteristics;
it needs a cause, suitable geography, weakness of
counter-insurgency force, and external support.17
In addition to alliance with local groups, the above-
mentioned parameters of successful insurgency
given by David Galula are crucial for ISIS to carry
out insurgency in Pakistan
The later parts of the paper will discuss the
current status of ISIS, and its future in Pakistan by
analysing the situation of the country through the
prism of David Galula’s successful insurgency.

Green Book 2019 103


On June 7, 2006, Al-Zarqawi was killed,26 and

the two successors of Al-Zarqawi; Abu Hamza al
Muhajir27 and Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi28 continued
the cause under the flag of MSC and proved
themselves more violent and brutal than their
In October 2006, MSC established Islamic
Emirate in Iraq (IEI) that later transformed into
Islamic State of Iraq (ISI).29 Their territory was Local Iraqi volunteers gathered to stop Islamic State of Iraq
consisted of the Western and Northern Province
of Iraq. Although emirate remained unsuccessful
due to clash of ideology of foreign Jihadists with the time when organisation was about to dissolve.
IEI and increasing demands of local Iraqi fighters New Emir eschewed the efforts to regain its control
for political and economic patronage, yet the on the territory and preferred to rejuvenate its
organisation somehow survived.30 The rebranding classic-styled terrorist attire; assembled on an
of IEI into Islamic State of Iraq , facilitated United underground organisation.35
States (US) to assimilate tribal militias against jihadi With the withdrawal of US from Iraq, once
groups. With the effective tactics of the US, active again Islamic State of Iraq got chance to re-emerge,
support of Islamic State of Iraq by local population and conducted more lethal attacks.
started to decline.31 Following are the reasons for When Syrian conflict broke out, Abu-Bakar
the Islamic State of Iraq’s decline in Iraq: initiated his long-term plan of creating Islamic
── Tribal leaders realised that political process State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).
is a better option to follow than to support Abu-Bakar sent his commander Al-Golani to
and facilitate Islamic State of Iraq against the Syria, who successfully formed a group called
coalition; Jabhat Al-Nusra (JN).36 In 2012, when Abu-Bakar
── Goals and objectives of Islamic State of Iraq was hard at work in Iraq, Golani was struggling
were not only contradictory to the tribal, but in Syria. In July 2012, Abu-Bakar launched a
odd and too violent in nature; campaign called “Breaking the Walls” which
increased violence in Iraq at maximum. The
── US cashed the prevailing frustration among campaign longed for one year from July 2012 to July
the tribal militias (the Sahwa, or awakening 2013. Through this campaign, eight prisons were
council), by reaching them and facilitating
attacked, among them Abu Ghraib prison attack
financially and logistically to fight against
is the most significant; above five hundred high-
Islamic State of Iraq.
profile so-called jihadists managed to escape, who
Discontinuation of popular support by tribal were imprisoned during confrontation against US
militias proved a great setback for Islamic State and New Iraqi regime.37
of Iraq . Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi and Abu Hamza According to a preeminent analyst, Jessica
Al-Muhajir were killed in joint raid of Iraqi and Lewis, the “Breaking Walls” campaign reflected
US forces in 2010.32 In addition to it, thirty-four that Islamic State of Iraq had rebuilt itself a
top leaders of the IS were killed or imprisoned in professional military force that is capable of
the same year.33 According to Michael Knights, “in planning, training, financing, and executing
second half of 2010, Islamic State of Iraq was dead synchronised and complex attacks in Iraq.38 On
on its feet”.34 April 8, 2013, through an audio message Abu Bakar
After the death of Abu Omar Al-Baghdadi, Abu- broadcasted the unification of Islamic State of Iraq
Bakar Al-Baghdadi stood out as an Emir of Islamic and Jabhat Al-Nusra, and titled joint alliance as
State of Iraq in 2010. Abu-Bakar took charge at “The Islamic State in Iraq and ash-Sham (ISIS)”.39
After some days, Al-Golani, the head of Jabhat Al-

Nusra in Syria, through an audio message, cast
The rebranding of IEI into Islamic off the news of union of Islamic State of Iraq and
Jabhat Al-Nusra, and gave his allegiance to Al-
State of Iraq , facilitated US to Zawahiri and Al-Qaeda Core (AQC).40 A letter, dated
assimilate tribal militias against jihadi May 23, which was leaked in June 2013 to Al-Jazeera
revealed Al-Zawahiri’s statement that Jabhat Al-
groups. With the effective tactics of Nusra is the only affiliate of Al-Qaeda (AQ) in the
the US, active support of Islamic State region.41 In response, Abu Bakar reaffirmed the
of Iraq by local population started to name of his organisation (ISIS), and continuation
of activities in Iraq and Syria. With this statement
decline ISIS officially separated from Al-Qaeda.42 Since

104 Green Book 2019


then, Abu Bakar Al-Baghdadi, a self-proclaimed Recruits of ISIS are captured across the globe
caliph of Ummah (Muslim world) claims authority including US, Canada and Europe. Some seized
over entire Muslim world, and is trying to enhance ISIS recruits do not endorse the footprints of ISIS
presence, membership and scope of ISIS at global in these countries. Footprint means presence,
level. membership and scope of an organisation in a
Footprints of ISIS are observable across the particular country.
globe. The major victims of ISIS include Libya, It is unjustified to link footprints of ISIS with a
Sinai region, Algerian province, West African country until it meets the David’s prerequisites of a
successful insurgency.

ISIS and Pakistan

The very first incident linked to ISIS in
Pakistan was the attack on a bus on May 13, 2015.
Forty-five people were killed and thirteen injured
in the attack. Jundullah, a pledged ally of ISIS in
Pakistan, claimed the responsibility of the attack.43
The attack commenced a new debate on
presence of ISIS in Pakistan, which was fuelled by
anti-Pakistan actors at maximum. International
media has done all-out effort to defame Pakistan.

region, Northeast Nigeria, Northern Cameroon,

Niger, Chad, Yemen, Chechnya, Palestine and
Afghanistan etc.
Keeping in view the above-mentioned facts,
evolutionary history of ISIS can be categorised into
three phases. In first phase, the ideology and vision
of ISIS was established, followed by strengthening
its membership and presence in Iraq. In second
phase, ISIS remained unsuccessful in gaining
popular support and formation of Islamic Emirate
in Iraq. Lack of popular support weakened the
ISIS and it went underground. In third phase,
three factors helped ISIS to make a successful
rise in Middle East: a shift in ISIS’ leadership;
withdrawal of American forces from Iraq; and
outbreak of Syrian conflict. Presence of vacuum,
cause, leadership, suitable geography, popular Hither, some newspapers and TV channels
support, finances, and lack of counter-insurgency did not hesitate to call Pakistan as birth place of
force helped ISIS not only in rejuvenation within ISIS. Afterwards, one after another, every terrorist
the Middle Eastern region but opened prospects of activity in Pakistan has been linked with ISIS
its global reach. including Lahore bombing in March 2016, and
hospital attack in Quetta in August 2016. However,
The careful observation on the scope of ISIS in
a report published by Pakistan Institute for Conflict
the world exposed that footprints of ISIS are only
and Security Studies (PICSS) nullified the traced
evident in the regions that are either politically or
links of above mentioned events with ISIS.
socially instable.

‘‘ The careful observation on the scope of ISIS in the world exposed that footprints
of ISIS are only evident in the regions that are either politically or socially instable

Green Book 2019 105


‘‘ Recruits of ISIS are captured across actors) against the state and civilians.47 Whereas
insurgency is the use of force by local groups
the globe including US, Canada and against the state and masses.48
Europe. Some seized ISIS recruits do Terrorism, on the other hand, is the amalgam
not endorse the foot prints of ISIS of militancy and insurgency. ISIS falls under the
category of terrorist organisation that cannot
in these countries. Foot print means
presence, membership and scope of an
‘‘ operate in any region without the assistance of
local insurgents.49 Therefore, it is crucial to assess
organisation in a particular country Pakistan’s counter-insurgency potentials to accept
or reject the footprints of ISIS in the country.
Following are the details of prerequisites:
According to the report, the analysis of patterns
of attacks claims that the attack on Police Academy
Lack of Cause: A Wanting Prerequisite for
in Quetta was the first attack carried out by ISIS in
Pakistan.44 Report also tells that style and pattern For an insurgent and a non-state actor, it is
of attack was typical “Fidayeen Style”. very important to have an attractive cause to attain
There was a time when this style of attack was popular support. Cause is a primary prerequisite
a trademark of one group but now many groups to pry the population away from the state, and to
in the region have adopted this style of storming control and mobilise them against the state.
into a facility, holding out and fighting till death. Al-Zawahiri clearly said that Al-Qaeda is not
Therefore, one cannot ascertain exactly that which the ally of ISIS.50 The present deadly battle between
group was behind the attack. But, after the incident Afghan Taliban and ISIS in Afghanistan seconds
of twin towers (9/11), the group formed coalition his statement.51
with non-state actors like Al-Qaeda and TTP Pakistan has a clear non-discriminatory policy
against the Pakistani State, parallel to targeting against insurgents and non-state actors.52 Pakistani
Shia community. nation is united against extremism and terrorism,
Later the spokesman of Laskar-e-Jhangvi Al- and local groups have no attractive cause to acquire
Alami endorsed the statement of IGFC and said, popular support in Pakistan.53
“the attack was the joint venture of LeJ Al-Alami and
Islamic State of Iraq and Syria’’.45 Strengths of Pakistan as Counter-Insurgency
The second attack which is carried out by the
ISIS; confirmed by sources and claimed by ISIS is Origin of an insurgency takes place just like
the attack on Shah Noorani Sufi Shrine in Khuzdar the process of seed germination. It needs proper
District of Balochistan, in which more than fifty- environment and protection to spread the scope of
two people have lost their lives and a hundred its roots.
were injured.46 Till date, the above mentioned two An insurgency seeks protection and avenues of
attacks are done by ISIS with collaboration of local its growth in the weaknesses of counterinsurgency
non-state actors operating in Pakistani territory. force. Therefore, it is very important to analyse
Just like other parts of the world, ISIS attacks in Pakistan as a politic body resistant to any
Pakistan confirmed that the so-called Islamic State insurgency in general, and ISIS in particular. Below
cannot come directly to invade, but it always needs are the strengths and weaknesses of Pakistan as a
local non-state actors to exploit fault lines to pursue counter-insurgency force that will help to develop
its goals. The coming below discussion reveals a better understanding on the scope and future of
that does ISIS actually fulfils the prerequisites for ISIS in the country:
conducting successful insurgency in Pakistan as it ── Ability to Address the Problems. It is
is portrayed by international media or it is just a practically impossible for a sovereign to
false propaganda to defame Pakistan. acquire hundred percent immunity from
the problems. Inability of a government
Assessment of Pakistan’s Counter-Insurgency to address insurgency effectively helps
Potentials insurgents to carryout insurgency, but
Pakistan has a history to manage the
The above sections of the study revealed that problems efficiently and effectively. Pakistan
ISIS cannot operate in Pakistan without acquiring has launched several military operations
the membership of local insurgent groups. since 9/11 and remained successful. Pakistan
Insurgency is a vanilla term that is usually has maintained sustainable peace and
confused with militancy and terrorism. Militancy stability in Swat region through military
is the use of force by external elements (non-state operation called “Rah-e-Rast”.54 Currently

106 Green Book 2019


‘‘ Insurgency is a vanilla term that is usually confused with militancy and insurgency.
Militancy is the use of force by external elements (non state actors) against the state
and civilians. Whereas insurgency is the use of force by local groups against the state
and masses

Pakistani counter insurgency forces are insurgency force does not pay heed to the
carrying out military operation called Radd- development and evolution of insurgency,
ul-Fasaad in Waziristan, which is also which eventually becomes troublesome for
bringing about positive results.55 According the counter-insurgency force to counter later.
to data of South Asia Terrorism Portal, the The successful insurgencies developed across
fatalities of civilians from terrorist violence the globe such as in Sudan, Rwanda and Sri
are declining in number every year. Civilian Lanka were the result of negligence of state
fatalities have been dropped to 40 percent in for a long time. Pakistan, however, has shown
2014, and 65 percent in 2015, and 74 percent in resoluteness in countering insurgency and
2016.56 Moreover, the militancy in Pakistan is launched successful military operations.
only confined to certain areas located at Pak- In operation Al-Mizan (2002-2006) 70,000-
Afghan border due to porous border, whereas 80,000 troops were engaged, and operation
rest of the country is living in peace. suspended with a ceasefire agreement
── National Consensus. It is the primary between Pakistan Army and tribal men.62 With
factor on which solidarity of a nation is the breach of agreement, Pakistan launched
based. In Pakistan, whole nation is standing Operation Rah-e-Haq (November 2007) that
united against the insurgents or non-state resulted into deaths of 615 militants.63 In
actors prevailing in the country. National Operation Sher-e-Dil (September 2008) more
consensus in Pakistan is developed as the than one thousand militants were killed in
result of phenomenal security gains. All the first three months. Similarly, in Operation
national institutions along with central and Zarb-e-Azb (2013), 3400 terrorists were
provincial governments have contributed killed, 837 hideouts were demolished and
at their maximum to eradicate terrorism 21,193 terrorists were arrested.64 Moreover,
and extremism across the Country. Pakistan with the launch of National Action Plan
has formulated a comprehensive National (2015), National Counter-Terrorism Authority
Action Plan (NAP) against terrorism and (NACTA) confirmed that 1,808 terrorists are
launched operations across the country under arrested whereas 5,611 killed.65
NAP. Pakistan is praised by international ── Counter-Insurgency Leaders’ Knowledge of
community on its success achieved against Counter-Insurgency Warfare. Resoluteness
insurgents.57-58 Pakistan has targeted all non- alone is not enough; a counter-insurgency
state actors without any discrimination. force must know the effective strategy and
General Raheel Shareef said, “the operation tactics required to fight an insurgency.
was against militants of all hues and colours. Pakistan is a nuclear power and holds sixth
It is without any discrimination, whether it is most equipped and trained armies (including
Haqqani network, TTP or any other group”.59 land, air and naval force) in the World, and
Recently, Pakistan Army has launched largest among the Muslim world. Pakistan
Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad across the country not only possesses the capability to defend
to eliminate anti-Pakistan activities.60 Every her territory from external and internal
citizen of Pakistani state is all ready to offer threats, but is also engaged in United Nations
any sacrifice to mitigate anti-state activities (UN) Peacekeeping Missions; being one of the
and terrorism from the country. Not only that, World’s largest troop contributor in UN. Up till
but neighbouring China is also standing hand now Pakistani forces have intervened globally
in gloves with Pakistan against terrorism and in various intra-state and inter- state conflicts
offered its full support for this global cause.61 under the banner of UN. In a nutshell,
── Resoluteness of the Counter-Insurgency Pakistan’s civil and military leaders have the
(Government) Leadership. Firmness of concrete knowledge, strategy and tactics of
counter-insurgency leadership is third Counter Insurgency Warfare.
important factor to prevent insurgency. ── The Machine for the Control of the
Insurgency does not develop overnight, it is a Population. The fifth most important
slow process, and hence sometimes counter- prerequisite of counter-insurgency is to

Green Book 2019 107


have concrete state machinery which
includes political structure, administrative
Pakistan not only possesses the
bureaucracy, the police, and the armed forces: capability to defend her territory from
The Political Structure. Political structure external and internal threats, but is also
decides the fate of any nation. Flaws within
engaged in UN Peacekeeping Missions;
the political structures are responsible for the
catastrophes at national level. Unnecessary
being one of the World’s largest troop
oppression, dictatorship or political unrest contributor in UN
gives the reason for the development of an
insurgency. Pakistan is a modern democratic
country in which people choose their political
bigwigs as per their will. Democracy gives efficient, transparent and accountable
minimum chances to any insurgency to raise administrative structure, it is impossible
head. for insurgents to carry out any non-state
activity within Pakistan.
○○ In addition to that Pakistan’s political
structure is divided into one centre and ○○ The Police. Police is considered as the
four provinces due to which government’s eye and arm of any political entity for
civil bureaucratic system is successfully pertaining internal law and order. Any
serving at every nook of the country. insurgency that flares up, faces police
○○ The Administrative Bureaucracy. as the first counter-insurgent institution.
Administrative bureaucracy is considered The efficiency of police as an institution
as the engine of progress, growth and agent depends on number of factors: numerical
of transformation. Bureaucrats along strength; capability of their personnel;
with public institutions are expected to their loyalty for the state and the
provide leadership and deliver order and government; and concrete and continuous
stability. Pakistan inherited the system support from other state institutions.66
of administrative bureaucracy from Joint Pakistan’s police department is capable
Indian Royal Services. The system, till enough to deal with any challenge.
date is considered as the most effective Police is working in parallel to other law
and efficient to deliver at grass root enforcement agencies to maintain law
level. Pakistan’s administrative system and order in Pakistan.67
is divided into factions from sub-district ○○ The Armed Forces. Besides strengths
to district, then from district to division, required for armed forces to fight all kind
and further to provincial till federal of wars, numerical strength, composition
level. In presence of this kind of effective, of armed forces, devotion of troops for

the cause, and the time lapse before ○○ The Delay in Intervention: It takes
intervention are most relevant to fight an a sufficient period for insurgents to
insurgency.68 transform peace into a war. Usually
 Numerical Strength. Numerical political governments hesitate to let army
strength of counter-insurgent army intervene, which favours the insurgents
must be in relation to the population to gain strength.
size of the country. Insurgency ○○ Pakistani parliament, however, tried to
means two-dimensional combat address the problem immediately with
to control the population; the help of civil and military institutions
therefore sufficient numbers of as mentioned above.
army troops are required not only ── Outside Support. Following are the forms of
to fight insurgency but to control outside support:
population. Pakistan has sixth
largest army of the world with ○○ Moral Support. It is an important factor
560,000 active personnel.69 through which cause of an insurgent or a
non-state actor goes along the wind of the
 Composition of Army. Unlike history. Propaganda is the key instrument
the conventional warfare, less to gain popular support and sway public
sophisticated counter-insurgent opinion or reinforce the public sympathy,
force is better to fight insurgency. but fortunately entire international
For instance, in France’ NATO community is condemning the attacks
divisions in Algeria, modern launched by ISIS, and the organisation is
equipment and specialised units being badly discouraged throughout the
had to be hurriedly transformed into global canvas in general, and Pakistan in
ordinary infantry. In an insurgency, particular.
Naval force requires sufficient force ○○ Political Support. Direct political
to maintain blockade effectively support of insurgents or indirect influence
and air force needs are slow assault through international forums builds
fighters, short take-off transport pressure on counter-insurgent force.
planes, and helicopters.70 Pakistan Unlike the other organisations operating
army has in-depth knowledge of in the region, ISIS failed to impress the
country’s geography and climate. populations of South Asia by its political
Military composition of Pakistan: ideology. Every South Asian country
land, air and naval forces are sees it as an enemy: the organisation
capable enough to operate in any has sectarian rivalry with Shiite majority
situation including natural and Iran; its ideology contradicts to Taliban.
man-made disasters. Therefore, ISIS left with empty hands in
 Devotion of Individuals towards South Asia.
the National Cause (Counter-
Insurgency). Devotion of every Policy Recommendations
single individual of armed forces Although Pakistan has all the key elements to
towards the state is crucial to deal with anti-state actors yet following additions
fight an insurgency successfully to counter-insurgency strategy can further help
and effectively. In every military strengthening the Pakistan’s counter-insurgency
operation, a large number of young potentials:
Pakistan army officers volunteered ── Border Monitoring. Federally Administrated
their services that truly reflects Tribal Areas (FATA) are located on border of
their dedication and devotion to politically instable Afghanistan. Porous Pak-
the national cause.71 Afghan border facilitates non-state actors to

‘‘ Any insurgency that flares up, faces police as the first counter-insurgent institution.
The efficiency of police as an institution depends on number of factors: numerical
strength; capability of their personnel; their loyalty for the state and the government;
and concrete and continuous support from other state institutions

Green Book 2019 109


success story in the history of Pakistan’s

counter-terrorism warfare, and the lessons
learned from that success episode must be
utilised in FATA region too.
── Selection of Areas of Efforts. Use of force
is not the ultimate solution, other areas that
are social and economic in nature must also
be kept in focus and addressed to attain
sustainable peace and security in the country.
It is observed that poverty, lack of education,
and food and health insecurity, are the factors
contributing in uplifting an insurgency. Basic
needs of the population must be addressed to
restore their confidence on government.
── Deployment of Static Units. Disengagement
of police and army from field, sometimes help
the non-state actors to re-unite, therefore static
transport across the border. Erection of Pak-
units from Pakistan army and police must be
Afghan border has already been started but
deployed to ensure the non-violence and to
fence must be planned for complete border
carry out surveillance of the rehabilitation
and expedited to bar the entry and exit of non-
state actors.
── Contact with Population. Counter-insurgency
── Strengthening the Political Machine.
authority must stay in contact with the terrorism
Political machinery must further be
affected population. Pakistani government must
strengthened in areas that have faced problem
of insurgency such as South Punjab and

FATA. Civil services departments: Pakistan
Administrative Services (PAS) and Police Propaganda is the key instrument
Service of Pakistan (PSP) must play an active to gain popular support and sway
and efficient role in these areas to address the
problems from grass root level. public opinion or reinforce the
── The First Area as a Test Area. Pakistan public sympathy, but fortunately
may have a well-prepared, trained and entire international community is
indoctrinated counter-insurgency force, but condemning the attacks launched by
mistakes are bound to happen. Pakistan
must learn from its experiences of counter- ISIS, and the organisation is being
insurgency and counter-terrorism warfare badly discouraged throughout the
and try to identify the gaps left in earlier
operations and must not repeat the same
global canvas in general, and Pakistan
mistakes in future. For example, Swat is a in particular

110 Green Book 2019


Border Fencing Pak-Afghan Border

isolate the population from vestige non-state expectations of the government, otherwise
actors and their sympathisers by enforcing new people will be given chance to serve the
authority. Left over political cells of non-state local population.
actors should be eliminated by intelligence
led-operations. Conclusion
── Coordination of Efforts. Government In the light of above discussed prerequisites of
institutions, religious clergy and civil society successful counter insurgency, it is evident that it is
must work hand in hand to restore positive almost impossible for any non-state actor to carry
peace in the society. Collective efforts can out insurgency in a country like Pakistan which has
transform the terrorism affected areas in a all the potentials of counter-insurgency warfare.
constructive way. In Pakistan, non-state actors are only present in
── Political Participation. Political some areas located on western border which is due
participation of those who surrendered or are to politically instable landscape of Afghanistan.
ready to negotiate with counter-insurgency Porous border sharing with neighbouring
authority must be ensured. They are given Afghanistan and easy escape of insurgents to
the chance to be elected through elections other side of the border during military operations
so that their demands can be addressed in a hinders Pakistan’s counter-insurgency force to
legitimate way. eliminate them. Other than western border region,
whole country is living in peace. The comparison
── Testing of the Local Leaders. The ultimate of what faced by Europe and Pakistan due to ISIS
outcomes of the government’s efforts in last two years reflects that Pakistan has gone
regarding affected population hinge on the through less loss than Eurozone. As few attacks
efficiency and effectiveness of the locally conducted by ISIS in Europe do no endorse
elected representatives. Elected men are footprints of ISIS in the region, similar is the case
worthless if they remain unsuccessful in with Pakistan. Outsourcing four to five attacks
meeting the targets set by the government for through non-state actors operating locally (which
the affected region. Local leadership must be have already entered in the phase of demise) by
tested by giving them concrete task such as ISIS in no way certify the footprints—presence,
running the local government, undertaking scope and membership of the organisation in the
local projects etc. Their public support will country. In sum, Pakistan nulls and voids all the
consolidate; if they succeed in living up to the prerequisites mentioned by David Galula for a
successful insurgency.

‘‘ As few attacks conducted by ISIS in Europe do no endorse footprints of ISIS in the

region, similar is the case with Pakistan. Outsourcing four to five attacks through non-
state actors operating locally (which have already entered in the phase of demise)
by ISIS in no way certify the footprints—presence, scope and membership of the
organisation in the country

Green Book 2019 111


Notes 36. Abouzeid, Rania. “The Jihad Next Door.”Politico Magazine, June 23, 2014.
1. Tung, Mao Tse. “Quotations from Mao Tse Tung - Chapter 8.”Introduction to Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/
the Metaphysics of Morals by Immanuel Kant. Accessed on August 04, 2018. al-qaeda-iraq-syria-108214.
https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/works/red-book/ch08.htm. 37. “Iraq: Hundreds Escape from Abu Ghraib Jail.” The Guardian, July 22, 2013.
2. David C. Rapoport. Terrorism: Critical Concepts in Political Science. London, Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/22/
England: Routledge, 2006, P4. iraq-prison-attacks-kill-dozens.
3. Ibid, P4. 38. Lewis, Jessica. “Al-Qaeda in Iraq Resurgent: Part II.” The Institute for the
4. Ibid, P5. Study of War, September 2013, P, 7. Accessed on July 18, 2018.http://www.
5. Ibid, P5. understandingwar.org/report/al-qaeda-iraq-resurgent-part-ii.
6. Ibid, P4.
39. Joscelyn, Thomas. “ Al Qaeda in Iraq, Al Nusrah Front Emerge as Rebranded
7. Chalabi, Mona. “Terror attacks by Muslims receive 357% more press attention,
Single Entity.” The Long War Journal, April 9, 2013. Accessed on: April 10, 2018.
study finds,” In The Guardian, July 20, 2018. Accessed on July 27, 2018.https://
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/20/muslim-terror-attacks-press- 40. Holmquist, P 18.
coverage-study. 41. Ibid.
8. Rapoport, David C. “Comparing Militant Fundamentalist Movements and 42. Ibid.
Groups.” In Fundamentalism and State, 429-61. Chicago, United States: 43. Ali, Imtiaz. “43 killed in attack on bus carrying Ismailis in Karachi,” Dawn, May
University of Chicago Press, 1993. 14, 2015. Accessed on January 28, 2017.http://www.dawn.com/news/1181698.
9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Islamist_terrorist_attacks 44. Khan, Abdullah. “First ISIS Attack In Pakistan – Can We Learn Some Lessons?”
10. Ibid. Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, October 29, 2016. Accessed
11. Silva, Christina. “ISIS threat in Pakistan: Islamic State violence continues on July 18, 2018.athttps://www.picss.net/archives/5849.
with death of intelligence officer,” In International Business Times, October 24, 45. Ibid.
2016. Accessed on July 18, 2018.http://www.ibtimes.com/isis-threat-pakistan- 46. Shah, Syed Ali, Imtiaz Ali, and Ismail Sasoli. “At Least 52 Killed, 102 Injured in
islamic-state-violence-continues-death-intelligence-officer-2430508. Blast at Khuzdar Shrine.” Dawn, November 13, 2016. Accessed on July 18, 2018.
12. “Pakistan birthplace of ISIS: Tarek Fatah.” In Times of India. May 10, 2015. athttp://www.dawn.com/news/1295928.
Accessed on July 28, 2018.http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ahmedabad/ 47. Azam, Maryam, and UmbreenJavaid.”The Sources of Militancy in Pakistan.”
Pakistan-birthplace-of-ISIS-Tarek Fatah/articleshow/47218188.cms. Journal of the Research Society of Pakistan 54, no. 02 (December 2017): 189-98.
13. “Four ISIS men arrested in Lahore raid,” The Nation, September 17, 2016. 48. Oxford English Dictionary second edition 1989.
Accessed on July 18, 2018.http://nation.com.pk/national/17-Sep-2016/four-isis- 49. Sinclair, Samuel Justin, and Antonius Daniel.The Psychology of Terrorism
Fears. USA: Oxford University Press, 2012, P 14.
14. Azeem, Munawar. “Police to act against Jamia Hafsa over Daish video,” In
50. Holmquist, P 18.
Dawn, January 09, 2015.Accessed on July 18, 2018.http://www.dawn.com/
news/1155803. 51. Brennan, David. “ISIS Vs. Taliban: Dozens Killed as Battle for Afghanistan
continues.” news week, July 17, 2017. Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://
15. Galula, David. Counter-Insurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice. New York,
United States: Frederick A. Praeger, 1964, P3.
16. Ibid, 3.
52. “Nation United against Terrorism: DG ISPR.” The News, January 20, 2015.
17. Ibid, 13-32.
Accessed on July 18, 2018. https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/619-nation-
18. Ash-Sham (al-Sham) is a historic term for Greater Syria, which in modern terms
means the Levant. The organisation is known by many names as will become
53. “Nation united against terrorism, extremism: Pervaiz.” The News, March 17,
apparent in the report, ISIL is short for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant,
and is the acronym that the U.S. administration prefers to use. ISIS is short for 2016. Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/105913-
the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham; Daish, which is the Arabic acronym Nation-united-against-terrorism-extremism-Pervaiz.
for ad-Dawlah al-Islāmīyahfīl-ʻIraqwa ash-Shām; or IS, the Islamic State as 54. Sheikh, Ismail. “Timeline: Major offensives launched by army against
the organisation now prefers to be known. This report will henceforth use the militants.” The Express Tribune, June 15, 2014. Accessed on July 18, 2018.
acronym ISIS because it reflects the organisation’s current areas of engagement. https://tribune.com.pk/story/722391/timeline-major-offensives-launched-by-
19. Ibid. army-against-militants/.
20. Kazimi, Nibras. “A Virulent Ideology in Mutation: Zarqawi Upstages Maqdisi.” 55. Ghazanfar, Saima. “Operation Zarb-e-Azb: Two years of success.” The
Current Trends in Islamic Ideology 02 (September 15, 2005): 59-73. September Nation, September 06, 2016. Accessed on July 18, 2018.http://nation.com.pk/
15, 2005. Accessed on July 18, 2018. https://www.hudson.org/content/ national/06-Sep-2016/operation-zarb-e-azb-two-years-of-success.
researchattachments/attachment/1453/current_trends_islamist_ideology_v2.pdf. 56. Ibid.
21. Brachman, Jarret M., Global Jihadism: Theory and Practice. London, England: 57. “Pakistan is winning the war against terrorism under NAP: US Country
Routledge, 2009, P 22. Report.” Times of Islamabad, August 07, 2016. Accessed on July 18, 2018.
22. Rabasa, Angel. Beyond al-Qaeda.Part 1.The Global Jihadist Movement. Santa https://timesofislamabad.com/pakistan-is-winning-the-war-against-
Monica CA, United States: RAND Corporation, 2006, P 136. terrorism-under-nap-us-country-report/2016/08/07/.
23. O’Neill, Brendan. “Zarqawi: Western Fearmongering Made Flesh.” Spiked. 58. “COAS visit: Chinese military appreciates Pakistan’s consensus against
June 13, 2006. Accessed on July 18, 2018.http://www.spiked-online.com/ terrorism.” The Express Tribune, January 25, 2015. Accessed on July 18, 2018.
newsite/article/389#.W3P4cs4zbIU. https://tribune.com.pk/story/827292/coas-visit-chinese-military-appreciates-
24. Faraj, Caroline. “Al-Zarqawi Group Claims Allegiance to Bin Laden.”CNN pakistans-consensus-against-terrorism/.
International. October 18, 2004. Accessed on July 18, 2018. http://edition.cnn. 59. “Army targeting all militants without discrimination: General Raheel.” The
com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/17/al.zarqawi.statement/. Express Tribune, November 20,2014.Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://tribune.
25. Rabasa, P 141. com.pk/story/794198/army-to-ensure-terrorists-are-unable-to-reestablish-
26. Burns, John F. “U.S. Strike Hits Insurgent at Safehouse.” New York Times. June their-base-in-pakistan-coas-tells-us-senators/
08, 2006. Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/08/ 60. “Army launches ‘Operation RaddulFasaad’ across Pakistan.” The Nation,
world/middleeast/08cnd-iraq.html. February 22, 2017. Accessed on July 18, 2018.http://nation.com.pk/national/22-
27. Holmquist, Erika. ISIS and Hezbollah: Conduits of Instability. Sweden: FOI, Feb-2017/army-launches-operation-radd-ul-fassad-across-pakistan.
Swedish Defence Research Agency, 2015, P 15. 61. Sharjeel, Hussain. “War on terror continues.” The Nation, March 03, 2017.
28. Ibid. Accessed on July 18, 2018.http://nation.com.pk/columns/03-Mar-2017/war-on-
29. Ibid. terror-continues.
30. Felter, Joseph and Brian Fishman. “Al-Qa’ida’s Foreign Fighters in Iraq: A First 62. Nabi, Adiya. “List of Military Operations in Pakistan.” News Agency, December
Look at the Sinjar Records.”Combating Terrorism Centre, January 02, 2007. 28, 2016. Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://www.liverostrum.com/pakistan-
Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://ctc.usma.edu/al-qaidas-foreign-fighters-in- army-operations/1025510.html.
iraq-a-first-look-at-the-sinjar-records/. 63. Ibid.
31. Hafez, Muhammed M. “Al-Qa`ida Losing Ground in Iraq.” CTC Sentinel 1, no. 64. Ibid.
1 (December 2007). Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://ctc.usma.edu/al-qaida- 65. “Pakistan is winning the war against terrorism under NAP: US Country
Report.” Times of Islamabad, August 07, 2016. https://timesofislamabad.
32. Arango, Tim. “Top Qaeda Leaders in Iraq Reported Killed in Raid.” The New com/pakistan-is-winning-the-war-against-terrorism-under-nap-us-country-
York Times, April 19, 2010.Accessed on June 03, 2018. https://www.nytimes. report/2016/08/07/.
com/2010/04/20/world/middleeast/ 20baghdad.html.
66. Galula, P 23.
33. Shanker, Thom. “Qaeda Leaders in Iraq Neutralised, US Says.” The New
67. “Police, agencies carry out 1,423 search operations in Punjab.” The News,
York Times, June 4, 2010. Accessed on July 18, 2018. https://www.nytimes.
April 06, 2016. Accessed on July 18, 2018.https://www.thenews.com.pk/
34. Knights, Michael. “The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Iraq.”The Washington
Institute for Near East Policy, December 12, 2013. Accessed on July 18, 2018. 68. Galula, P 23.
35. Fishman, Brian. “Redefining the Islamic State: The Fall and Rise of Al-Qaeda 69. The Military Balance 2017, by The International Institute of Strategic Studies.
in Iraq.” New America Foundation, July 18, 2011. Accessed on July 18, 2018. London, England: Routledge, 2017.
https://static.newamerica.org/attachments/4343-redefining-the-islamic-state/ 70. Galula, P 24.
Fishman_Al_Qaeda_In_Iraq.023ac20877a64488b2b791cd7e313955.pdf. 71. Interviews with army officers.

112 Green Book 2019


Green Book 2019 113


Tackling Terrorism:
Pernicious Implications of
Poor Policing
The problem of terrorism has raised a lot
of questions about how this complex and
sophisticated threat should be responded to.
Should terrorism be dealt with by specialised
counter-terrorism agencies or local police or both?
What are pernicious implications of poor policing
vis-à-vis tackling terrorism? Has poor policing
made handling of complex problem of terrorism
even worse? The police is the largest component
of the network of security forces, serving not only
as first responders but also as intelligence officers
and bridge-builders to communities suspected of
contributing disproportionately to terrorism. How
counter-terrorism ‘high policing’ impacts local
policing? How critical is intelligence in countering
terrorism? Should local police be involved in
covert terrorism prevention or counter-terrorism
Dr Muhammad Shoaib Suddle, is a renowned
former Senior Police Officer, who currently as intelligence gathering? Is Pakistan’s inherited
Senior Fellow at Global Think Tank Network, policing model relevant to present-day challenges,
and Strategic Advisor to Centre for Research
on Security Studies, plays a leading role
particularly terrorism? If not, what is the relevance
in security, justice and governance policy of democratic policing principles to counter-
organisations terrorism? What reforms are needed to reform the
anachronistic police system, particularly in the
context of counter-terrorism? This paper attempts
to address these questions.

Keywords: Police, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism,

Intelligence, High Policing, Low Policing, Police
Reform, Security Forces, Police Act 1861, Police
Order 2002, Capacity-building, National Police
Bureau, Internal Security

114 Green Book 2019


akistan inherited, in 1947, a more-than- The Historical Context of Policing

eighty-year-old police system from the
British. The overriding consideration It is crucial to understand the basic difference
before those who designed the police between a colonial police force and a police service
organisation in 1861 was to create an meant for a free country. Whereas the former was
instrument in the hands of the – colonial geared at raising semi-militarised, semi-literate,
– government for keeping the natives on a tight underpaid bodies of men for maintaining order
leash. Police was not meant to be an operationally by overawing an often turbulent and hostile
neutral public service agency geared to enforce law population, the latter aimed at creating law
fairly and justly. enforcement professionals tasked to prevent and
detect crime in plural, multi-ethnic and rights’
Established in the backdrop of ‘Mutiny’ of conscious communities, through just and impartial
1857, principal objectives of this design included enforcement of laws. The former knew how to rule,
keeping the people fully under control through a the latter to serve. 
“rough and ready” system of maintenance of law
and order, a euphemism for what Justice Cornelius
called the rule of danda (stick); seamless collection
of land revenue; and safeguarding and promoting
Great Britain’s trading interests.

As the overriding objective of police

organisation designed in 1861 was to maintain the
stability of the Raj, the purpose was admirably
achieved through emulating the Irish Constabulary
model – by placing police under direction and
control of the executive authority through the
office of the European District Officer who acted as
the agent of the colonial government.

‘‘ The overriding consideration before those who designed the police organisation
in 1861 was to create an instrument in the hands of the – colonial – government for
keeping the natives on a tight leash. Police was not meant to be an operationally
neutral public service agency geared to enforce law fairly and justly

Green Book 2019 115


misbehaviour is a bitter fact of every-day life, borne

out of experience of successive generations at the
hands of a force widely believed to be working
beyond the bounds of civilised code of behaviour.
It is the behaviour that defies change and is
impervious even to the most scathing criticism by
leaders of civil society. Could the ordinary citizen
do anything when things went wrong, grievances
arose, or complaints about police fell on deaf
ears? Not much, because, badly enough, whatever
remedial arrangements existed were woefully
inadequate, lacked public confidence and were
far from user-friendly. It is citizens’ widely-held
belief that police could get away with anything
and everything. There existed no independent
mechanism of policing the police notwithstanding
that an increasingly expanding range of coercive
powers at their command required stricter
accountability controls. Public confidence in the
police has never been lower. We know why? We
even know how to fix this problem.

Faced with a deepening crisis both internally

within its own organisation and externally in its
relations with the public, the 1861 policing system
started running around under the strain of social
change brought about in 1947 by the freedom from
colonial rule. Though a clear intent to reform police
surfaced in independent Pakistan right at the start
when Governor General Muhammad Ali Jinnah,
in August 1947, issued a directive for establishing
a modern police force for the city of Karachi, the
reform bill (XXV of 1948), passed on 7th February
1948, couldn’t get assent of the Governor General,
thanks to politics of police reform.
In the backdrop of deteriorating health of the
Father of the Nation, Legal Advisor to the Governor
General, returned the bill unsigned for making
certain ‘minor corrections’. There were over twenty
police reform commissions/committees, both
national and foreign, in the past seventy years, but
their recommendations remained largely ignored.
No surprises that Pakistan’s policing crisis has
continued to exacerbate over time.

The Problem A clear intent to reform police
Serious inadequacies of police range from
incompetence, inefficiency, arbitrary and
surfaced in independent Pakistan right
insensitive handling of public complaints to at the start when Governor General
institutionalised abuse of power and perceived Muhammad Ali Jinnah, in August 1947,
widespread resort to corruption. No wonder that
citizens lend little or no co-operation to the police. issued a directive for establishing a
They perceive police not as an instrument of rule modern police force for the city of
of law but as a highly politicised service operating Karachi, the reform bill (XXV of 1948),
principally to look after the interests of the
passed on 7th February 1948, couldn’t
powerful.  Unacceptably high level of mistrust in
the police did not come about lightly or suddenly. get assent of the Governor General,
For most citizens confronting routine police thanks to politics of police reform

116 Green Book 2019


Discussing in detail different factors that
contribute toward poor policing in Pakistan, As the ground conditions that
Abbas (2012)1 argues that first and foremost of made the 1861 arrangement expedient
these factors is outdated Police Act of 1861, which had long ceased to exist, it was clear
is still applicable in two Provinces: Sindh and
Balochistan. Other factors such as corruption, that police needed a fundamental
political interference, structural problems, Thana transformation – from its colonial
Culture, poor training and lack of advanced
technology play key role in police not being able to
mould to an organisation structured
counter-terrorism. on standard, democratic policing
Poor policing over time also became a serious
principles meant for ensuring rule of
threat to social order. Although the country spent law
tens of billions every year on police, civil armed
forces and security agencies, yet the citizen
continued to suffer from a creeping sense of
insecurity. It was almost as if the anachronistic were ruthlessly violated over the years. This
police system was designed not to work. The resulted in the creation of a corrupt, inefficient and
way forward to long debated package of police highly politicised police force. Consequently, the
reforms lay in radically changing the way the task of maintaining law and order suffered serious
police operated; in developing a sub-culture of setback.
professional policing, trained and equipped to Increasingly the police were rendered to act
uphold the rule of law; in shifting from oppressive as agents of the political executive rather than
policing practices to humane service delivery; and as instruments of a democratic polity. Selective
in reinventing the police which had miserably application of law against opponents, whether due
failed to win much-needed partnership with to political interference or at the behest of persons
citizens and communities. It was time for police of influence, became the norm rather than an
to enter into a customer service contract with the exception. Personal and clan vendettas were waged
people of Pakistan, a guarantee of more effective, and won through manipulation of instruments of
efficient, responsive, accountable policing. It was the state. Whatever safeguards existed against the
time to implement ideas that worked and get rid floodgates of pressure, inducement or threat from
of those that didn’t. As the ground conditions that criminals or ethnic, sectarian or other powerful
made the 1861 arrangement expedient had long elements virtually became non-existent. The net
ceased to exist, it was clear that police needed a result of this all was that people perceived the
fundamental transformation – from its colonial police as agents of the powerful, not as members
mould to an organisation structured on standard, of an organisation publicly maintained to enforce
democratic policing principles meant for ensuring law.
rule of law. The Police Act 1861 was finally replaced by
Police Order 2002 promulgated on 14th August
Toward Comprehensive Police Reform 2002. The latter sought to provide the police
The opportune moment to reinvent police with operational autonomy and freedom from
apparently came when the Ministry of Interior, in illegitimate political interference. It envisaged
November 1999, decided to set up Focal Group on effective accountability of the police, both
Police Reforms and tasked it to suggest fundamental internally and externally through independent
restructuring of police. The Focal Group submitted Police Complaints Authorities. The Police Order
its recommendations in February 2000. In the 2002 obligated the police “to function according to
meanwhile, the National Reconstruction Bureau the Constitution, law and democratic aspirations
(NRB), as part of their good governance and of the people”. It redefined the police duties, police
devolution of powers programme, decided to powers, as also the control mechanisms over police.
accord high priority to long overdue police reforms. It aimed at bringing about a radical transformation
The NRB’s Think Tank on Police Reforms comprised in the ‘old police culture’ and turning the police
a Justice of the Peace from Britain and three senior into a vehicle for establishing and promoting rule
police officers who knew the police best – who of law.
knew what worked, what didn’t; and how things Implemented in its true spirit, the Police Order
ought to be changed. 2002 could have led to policing best practices,
The NRB, after extensively deliberating aspects effectively meeting the 21st century law and order
of police reforms, concluded that police could only challenges. However, that didn’t happen. The Police
perform well if founded on valid organisational Order 2002 was massively amended in 2006, solely
principles. In the case of police, these principles due to political considerations. Not only did the

Green Book 2019 117


‘‘ Implemented in its true spirit, the Police Order 2002 could have led to policing best
practices, effectively meeting the 21st century law and order challenges. However, that
didn’t happen. The Police Order 2002 was massively amended in 2006, solely due to
political considerations

amendments dilute the operational independence executive, the nature and extent of police-public
of the police, they also rendered the long sought interaction is fundamentally different. Impolite
for police de-politicisation mechanisms ineffective, and unfair policing only exacerbates negative
defeating the very purpose of the whole reform perceptions to voluntary cooperation by the
effort. In yet another retrograde step, the Provinces public. Improved police-public relations require
of Sindh and Balochistan, in 2011, reverted to the positive community perceptions of everyday police
old Police Act 1861. In 2017, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa practices.
also replaced the Police Order 2002 with the Police Mastrofski (1999)3 has identified six basic
Act 2017, leaving Punjab as the only Province that ingredients for the police in order to elicit more
has, till date, retained the Police Order 2002, with effective support and cooperation from the public:
amendments. ── Attentiveness– Police should attend to their
public’s problems and ‘be around’.
Police Access Service (PAS) – Khyber Pakhtunkhwa ── Reliability– There needs to be a degree of
predictability about what the police do.
── Responsiveness– The police should provide
a client-centred service that is reassuring to
the public.
── Competence– The public respects police who
can get the job done and where this cannot be
done, public respect police who clearly and
honestly explain why.
── Manners– Far more significant than what the
police accomplish is how they treat people on
an interpersonal basis.
── Fairness– Police should treat all people fairly.
While basic guidelines on sensitive and
fair policing are integral to all forms of police
work, their significance increases with regard to
counter-terrorism operations. If individual police
officers are appropriately trained to undertake
their activities humanely and courteously, the
Impact of ‘High Policing’ Practices on risk of undermining police legitimacy in counter-
Police-Public Relationship terrorism practices is significantly reduced. Clancy
et al. (2001)4 suggests that the police’s ‘poor
According to Brodeur (1983),2 ‘high policing’ demeanour’ is most frequent source of the public
is primarily concerned with protecting the state being ‘really annoyed’ with the police. According
and nation as a whole and is carried out by the to Tyler (2004),5 police should afford people input
security services to pre-empt, infiltrate and subvert into wider policing decisions; be objectively
insurgent groups deemed a threat to the state neutral and transparent; be polite and treat people
and larger public interest. This is in contrast to with dignity and respect for their human rights;
traditional ‘low policing’ where the police remained and be sincere, explaining their decisions and
concerned more with bringing the offenders to conduct in a benevolent manner. Skogan (2006)6
justice after the commission of crime. likewise found that fair and courteous treatment
As noted, the colonial underpinning of our in police-initiated contacts, giving people reasons
police has historically meant that the public is less for what police do and explaining them their
willing to engage with the police. In jurisdictions rights, contributes to satisfaction with ‘police
where police are seen as an instrument of rule encounters’. Lowe and Innes (2008)7 suggest that
of law, not an oppressive tool at the hands of the as front-line, ‘public-facing’ police officers get

118 Green Book 2019


to know the everyday ‘rhythms and routines’ of police establishment was a continuation of the
social life in their local communities, they tend to police appointed during the British days, the
get into an advantageous position when it came to delegation observed:
noticing subtle changes in their environments that “The central problem surrounding police …
outsiders may be unaware of. in Pakistan is that the present system was created
A prerequisite for community engagement to many years ago under colonial rule and has not been
succeed is that counter-terrorism teams involved refined or evaluated to keep pace with the changing
in ‘high policing’ operations not only engage face of the country in the last decade of the twentieth
cooperatively and wholeheartedly with the local century … Police … throughout Pakistan has clung to
police but also improve their intelligence-sharing the role envisaged by the Police Act of 1861, in which
propensities and mechanisms. Evidence suggests the main functions were the maintenance of law and
that intelligence continues to be held within ‘high order and preservation of the status quo by methods
policing’ teams and is not effectively shared with of suppression and control.”
local levels (Audit Commission and HMIC, 2008).8
Also, whilst deployment of trained intelligence
officers in specific localities known to house actual
or potential terrorists is vital for more targeted
intelligence, a significant problem arising from
spreading an intelligence-collection net too wide is
that much irrelevant material is pulled in, impairing
its usefulness. Another negative consequence is
that security services start suffering ‘information
It is clear that in order to build legitimacy
the police needs to invest significant resources in
improving the quality of community engagement.
Not only should police develop clear guidelines,
emphasising that individual officers interact
with the public fairly, honestly, and reliably, but
performance indicators of police should include
meaningful accounts of specific community
concerns addressed.
Indeed, these guidelines can go a long way
toward developing local solutions to preventing
crimes, and thereby building improved community
relations that contribute to the long-term A UN Mission led by Vincent M. Del Buono,
prevention of terrorism. UN’s Interregional Advisor for Crime Prevention
and Criminal Justice, visited Pakistan from 26
Pernicious Implications of Poor Policing March to 10 April 1995. Making a number of
A four-member British delegation headed by categorical recommendations, the UN Mission10
Sir Richard Barrat,9 Her Majesty’s Chief Inspector observed:
of Constabulary, visited Pakistan from 21 to 26 “The present crisis comes as no surprise. Since
January 1990, emphasising that Pakistan’s existing 1960, there have been eleven separate committees
or commissions established by governments in
Pakistan and four international missions requested

by the Government of Pakistan which have
The colonial underpinning of our recommended major reforms of policing in Pakistan.
police has historically meant that These have, for the most part, been ignored and
the remedies suggested have been unimplemented.
the public is less willing to engage Had the proposed reforms been undertaken, much
with the police. In jurisdictions where of the present crisis could have been avoided.  The
police is seen as an instrument of rule present police system, which has been allowed to
deteriorate so badly by successive governments
of law, not an oppressive tool at the and been so abused for political patronage, has not
hands of the executive, the nature and yet completely broken down due to the dedication,
extent of police-public interaction is integrity, initiative and professionalism of a large
number of individual officers and constables. In
fundamentally different spite of their best efforts, policing will collapse not

Green Book 2019 119


only in Karachi but also in other parts of the country The economy also lost hundreds of billions of
unless law enforcement institutions are strength Rupees. A very large number of officers of Karachi
ened immediately.”  Police, over 260, got martyred at the hands of
A Japanese experts team11 led by Mr. Sekine, terrorists in 1995 alone. In the exclusively police-
Director General National Police Agency, visited led counter-terrorism operation,13 Karachi Police
Pakistan in April 1996 on the invitation of played a heroic role in effectively taming the
Government of Pakistan. After discussing police dinosaur of terrorism exceptionally in a little over
reforms of 1947-54 in Japan, the team observed that six months. Sadly, the Government’s failure to
it was crucial that police reforms in Pakistan be consolidate and sustain the rare law and order gains
focused on building a relationship of trust between yet again resulted, in 1998, in serious deterioration
the people and the police, and that the police in of the security situation, costing the nation dearly
Pakistan should adopt a public service concept. in terms of quality of life, economy, and Pakistan’s
In their February 1999 Report on Sustainable image abroad.
Peace in Karachi, the Colombian12 experts Abbas (2009)14 has argued that despite
succinctly cautioned: frequently occurring law and order problems and
“If a professionally competent, politically internal strife, the Pakistani state did not give due
neutral and democratically controlled Karachi attention to build capacity of the police. Referring
Metropolitan Police Force is not formed, there will, to 1995-96 successful counter-terrorism operation
probably, be no police reform or reconstruction of the in Karachi, he concluded that police leadership
public sector, both of which are essential elements factor, political support, extra resources and
for sustainable peace.”  financial incentives played a key role in success
of the operation. According to him, lacklustre
As policing continued to deteriorate over implementation of Police Order 2002, poorly-
time, the last decade of 20th century particularly resourced National Police Bureau, and absence of
witnessed an almost complete collapse of law and specialised training to selected police officers all
order in Karachi. Urban terrorism during the 1990s have negative implications for effective policing.
claimed tens of hundreds of innocent victims and
brought Karachi the infamous title of ‘the City of Analysing capability of Pakistan’s security
Death’. apparatus to meet emerging internal security
challenges, Fair (2011)15 has thus observed: “Not
only has Pakistan demurred from making critical
investments in police forces, but the state has
also failed miserably to provide a modern policing
framework.” According to her, the state of Pakistan
has not fully realised the importance of the
institution of police and failed to reform and rebuild
it according to the requirements of changing time.
Modern policing places more emphasis on
problem-oriented and intelligence-led approaches.
Information technology is critical to building
police capacity to store, search, interpret and
analyse data. Through processing data in a myriad
of ways, analytical software supports enhanced
crime prevention and investigation capabilities,
providing police new insights in understanding the
‘crime problem’.
Alongside enhanced use of modern technology,
police officers, working in ‘high risk’ localities,
need to be aware of the potential contribution they

‘‘ It is clear that in order to build legitimacy the police needs to invest significant
resources in improving the quality of community engagement. Not only should police
develop clear guidelines, emphasising that individual officers interact with the public
fairly, honestly, and reliably, but performance indicators of police should include
meaningful accounts of specific community concerns addressed

120 Green Book 2019


‘‘ Initially established for crime control and maintenance of public order, today’s
police have to deal with multifarious, complex and growing tasks, including terrorism,
transnational organised crime, white-collar crime and cybercrime

can make to countering terrorism through their system, and (3) the use of military force. These
everyday policing activities. However, this being models are not mutually exclusive, and elements
a relatively new area of research, the available from each of them may be combined into a set of
evidence showing positive linkage between routine policy guidelines according to the circumstances.
policing activities and counter-terrorism needs to Though the incidents of 9/11 brought the issue
be explored further. Also, as one cannot always of international terrorism and use of military force
generalise from studies conducted in foreign into a new debate, there is no consensus in favour
jurisdictions, the Higher Education Commission of the high-handed military response as a pre-
and our universities and institutions of higher emptive measure. “The rules of international law
learning should increasingly encourage and could not simply be interpreted by a single country
promote local criminological research, with focus like the US to its own motives. If the interpretation
on contemporary internal security challenges. is unilateral by the strong according to its will and
weak is to accept it, then we are back in the dark
Police Role in Counter-Terrorism ages.” contends Maogoto (2005).17 Underscoring
the need to realign the existing rules on the use
Counter-terrorism incorporates practices,  tactics of kinetic force to match the altered international
techniques and strategy that government, law security environment, he suggests clearly defined
enforcement, military, paramilitary and intelligence limits to the use of military force.
agencies  use to combat or prevent  terrorism.
After studying seventeen successful
Counter-terrorism strategies include countering
counterinsurgencies, Sepp (2005)18 has concluded
financing of terrorism. If  terrorism  is part of
that the role of police is central to any successful
a broader  insurgency, counter-terrorism may counterinsurgency campaign. The best practices
employ  counterinsurgency  measures. Initially discerned include:
established for crime control and maintenance
of public order, today’s police have to deal with ── Police in the lead with the military providing
backup support; and
multifarious, complex and growing tasks, including
terrorism, transnational organised crime, white- ── Strengthening the police with relevant
collar crime, cybercrime. capabilities to help address the security needs
According to Wilkinson (2001),16 there are three of the at-risk population.
models of counter-terrorism response: (1) political There are some disadvantages though to using
reconciliation bringing the terrorist groups out of local police in covert counter-terrorism. These
terrorism by pursuing negotiations and diplomacy, disadvantages include burdening scarce resources
(2) the use of law enforcement and criminal justice available with the local police and diverting local

police from their normal routine duties. However, Explaining the role of local police in counter-
on balance, local police can actually contribute intelligence programmes during the Cold War
more to counter-terrorism by performing their period and in counter-terrorism after the terrorist
normal duties with increased focus and efficiency, attacks of 9/11, Waxman (2009)23 argues that local
particularly through improved interaction with police is better equipped in terms of resources,
the local communities and enhanced intelligence- capabilities and opportunities to counter terrorist
gathering capabilities. activities. Dividing the challenges posed by
Analysing police role in counterinsurgency international and local terrorism to the police in
campaigns in Malaya and Cyprus, Corum (2006)19 three categories: (1) organisational challenges, (2)
concluded that nearly all major twentieth century political accountability challenges, and (3) mission
counterinsurgency campaigns relied heavily on challenges, he contends that these challenges stem
indigenous police as well as military forces. from decentralised, heterogeneous and fragmented
Building up the case that partnership among policing systems.
national security organisations, intelligence According to a survey conducted by Bayley
agencies and local police is necessary to prevent and Weisburd (2009),24 all police services, whether
future terrorist attacks, Clarke and Newman (2007)20 centralised or decentralised, engage in domestic
observe that police play an important and central counter-terrorism, and there are no examples of
role in this partnership because they are in a better specialised counter-terrorism agencies separated
position to learn about emergence of local terrorist from the police at sub-national level. Likewise,
threats, their knowledge of possible targets and according to Abbas (2011):25 “Police capacity is critical
being in a position to offer first response to terrorist for taming terrorism and controlling insurgency-
attacks. In their view, an extension of community infested areas. A growing body of empirical research
policing can be helpful not only in the collection of has established that law enforcement, not military
intelligence but also prevention of situational and force, is the most effective tool for this task.”
ordinary crime. The recent phase of–post-9/11–terrorism
After analysing 648 terrorist groups that though largely tamed has quite bedevilled our
existed worldwide between 1968-2006, Jones and counter-terrorism communities. The changing
Libicki (2008)21 of RAND Corporation concluded forms and manifestations of terrorism continue
that most groups ended because they either joined to pose a serious challenge to capacities and
the political process or came in mainstream politics capabilities of security forces around the world.
or they were neutralised by police and intelligence Most countries have created specialised national
agencies through eliminating key leaders. The police agencies for effectively tackling terrorism.
authors contend that policing was the most Although Pakistan established NACTA in 2009, still
effective counter-terrorism strategy against those it is not the only agency looking after countering
terrorist groups which did not join the mainstream the terrorism because of the current inadequacies.
politics and continued their terrorist activities. Whilst each Provincial Police and Islamabad
Based on their research, they ended up suggesting Police has its own Special Branch primarily to
to the US’ policymakers that they should stop using gather, process, and analyse local intelligence,
the phrase “war on terrorism” because there was the Intelligence Bureau (IB) in recent years has
no battlefield solution to ending terrorism. assumed a growing counterintelligence role at
Bayley and Weisburd (2009)22 suggest several national level. In addition, there are Inter-Services
ways in which local police can contribute to Intelligence (ISI) and Military Intelligence (MI)
counter-terrorism, including by: that have a major counter-terrorism role. However,
meaningful and prompt sharing of intelligence,
── Observing and interacting with local people held by different agencies, civil and military,
during routine policing activities; remains a huge challenge.
── Analysing crime patterns indicating propensity Bayley and Perito (2012)26 have identified three
to commit terrorist activity or making pre- elements of strategy commonly adopted by the
terrorism preparation; police in countering terrorism:
── Developing partnerships with local businesses ── Target hardening.
and civil society organisations;

── Validating intelligence produced by specialised
counter-terrorism agencies; Partnership among national security
── Contributing in covert surveillance, penetration organisations, intelligence agencies
and target hardening; and
── Using local knowledge to recruit informers.
and local police is necessary to prevent
future terrorist attacks

122 Green Book 2019


attacks and undertaking covert operations to

prevent such attacks is a police responsibility.

Counter-Terrorism Challenges and

Reliability of Policing Services
For decades, international terrorist organisations
have spread their networks across the globe. More
recently, the internet and social media have provided
new tools not only to identify and communicate with
terrorist sympathisers but also to radicalise them to
carry out terrorist attacks at targets of their choosing.
Indeed, information technology poses huge
counter-terrorism challenges for contemporary
policing, including:
── Arresting, investigating, and prosecuting ── Using limited police resources more efficiently
terrorists. to fight crimes such as terrorism.
── Pre-emptive disruption. ── Providing a local, national as well as an
international response to terrorism.
Target hardening refers to provision of effective
security to the potential terrorist targets, including ── Building capacity for solving terrorism-related
important persons and places. crimes having national and international
Special police units, private security agencies,
security and surveillance equipment like CCTV ── Solving terrorism-related cases with limited
cameras, walk through gates, metal detectors and intelligence or sometimes intelligence that is
jammers play an important role in target hardening. not available locally.
Apart from technical equipment, trained sniffer ── Improving neighbourhood policing for counter-
dogs are also being used for crime detection and in terrorism.
sweep and search operations.
── Continuous professional development of
Even though counter-terrorism is a
police officers so that they can see the bigger
multidisciplinary and multiagency endeavour,
picture of fighting terrorism.
the role of police in arresting, investigating, and
prosecuting terrorists is pivotal and critical. ── Monitoring internet and social media for
Political scientists, sociologists and criminologists hate speech, recruitment of terrorists and
generally take the phenomenon of terrorism as a identifying terrorist networks.
crime and not as a military combat. A minority view
though is that crime and terrorism are different
phenomena and a successful crime control strategy
may not always be relevant to counter-terrorism.
Pre-emptive disruption, third element in
terrorism control strategy, means a measure taken
in advance to forestall a terrorist act. It entails
neutralising terrorists’ plans and capabilities with
a view to preventing them from achieving their
goals. Whilst target hardening and investigating
and prosecuting criminals are mandated
responsibilities of police, pre-emptive disruption
is rarely conducted in open. Even interaction with
general public is seldom made during execution
of terrorist-related plans notwithstanding that
gathering intelligence about potential terrorist

‘‘ Police capacity is critical for taming terrorism and controlling insurgency-infested

areas. A growing body of empirical research has established that law enforcement,
not military force, is the most effective tool for this task

Green Book 2019 123

── Adopting latest information technologies. Though terrorism stands substantially controlled
── Safe city projects in major cities and their over the past couple of years, the need to reinvent
monitoring through drone and CCTV cameras. Pakistan Police as a matter of urgent national priority
cannot be overstated.
── Centralised sharing of intelligence.
── Well-trained specialist investigators, with access Way Forward
to modern technological tools and supported by Under the Constitution, it is the duty of the
latest forensics. Federation to protect every Province against
── Promoting partnership between intelligence external aggression and internal disturbances
agencies and police. [Article 148(3)]. Paradoxically, whilst the
Constitution obligates the Armed Forces to defend
── Intelligence based police operations. Pakistan against external aggression, and, when
The World Economic Forum’s 2017 Travel and called upon, to act in aid of civil power [Article
Tourism Competitiveness Report ranks Pakistan 245 (1)], there is no dedicated civil force available
at 133/136 in the safety and security pillar, beating to the Federation to protect Pakistan against
only El Salvador, Yemen and Colombia. Indicators internal disturbances. Even when extent or nature
specific to safety and security pillar include: of internal disturbances is beyond a Provincial
(1) business costs of crime and violence, (2) Government to handle, how the Federation is to
discharge its constitutional duty to protect the
reliability of police services, (3) business costs of
Province, is not unambiguous. In the Provinces’
terrorism, (4) index of terrorism incidence, and (5)
view, law and order is their exclusive responsibility.
homicide rates per 100,000 population. Ranking
these five indicators at 123/136, 116/136,132/136, No wonder that National Action Plan (NAP),
126/136 and 99/136 respectively, the Report shows enforced in the backdrop of 16 December 2014
Pakistan Police in obvious bad light. Discerning brutal terrorist attack on Army Public School,
Peshawar, involving massacre of over 150 people,
debilitating aspects of a police force ranked at the
132 of them children, failed to get a clear go ahead
bottom in South Asia, the long-debated causal
from the Provinces for establishing a dedicated
factors like outdated laws, under-resourcing, poor
counter-terrorism force. Though of late terrorism
professionalism, police politicisation and lack of has been largely contained, the establishment of
advanced technological tools to effectively execute a dedicated counter-terrorism force by the Federal
police mission readily come to mind. Government remains a constitutional imperative.

‘‘ Even though counter-terrorism is a multidisciplinary and multiagency endeavour,

the role of police in arresting, investigating, and prosecuting terrorists is pivotal
and critical. Political scientists, sociologists and criminologists generally take the
phenomenon of terrorism as a crime and not as a military combat

124 Green Book 2019


Not only is counter-terrorism dependent on partnerships between various stakeholders. In

effective intelligence but the principal weapon 2008, the Office of National Security Advisor was
to win the fight against terror is actionable established in the Prime Minister’s Secretariat.
intelligence. As democratic policing principles More recently, on 18 March 2014, the Prime Minister
that emphasise increased police legitimacy and directed that a National Intelligence Directorate
improved community relations when implemented
proactively tend to have positive impact on police
Changing Police Station Culture
ability to gather vital intelligence, there is urgent
need to recognise that Pakistan’s contemporary
policing scene – still stuck with the 19th century
‘third degree’ model – requires urgent reinvention.
As full adherence to basic rights of law-
violating minority cannot be achieved except at the
expense of rights of the law-abiding majority, there
is a need to debate the public policy imperative of
tampering the basic rights of wayward individuals.
However, police should strive to keep the extent of
infringement of rights of the wayward minority to
a bare minimum. This is possible if ‘high policing’
organisations, in particular, possess specific human
interaction skills and their operating practices are
kept continually evaluated and updated.
Intelligence being lifeblood of police and
counter-terrorism work, it makes sense that police
and relevant agencies take full advantage of latest
information technology tools for increased and
efficient monitoring of country’s telecommunication
network, subject to effective checks and without
undermining law-abiding citizens’ rights to privacy
and free expression. What is required is a state-of-
the-art National Monitoring System (NMS) that is
capable of real time monitoring of all phone and
(NID) be immediately established under National
Internet traffic, bypassing service providers. In
Counter-Terrorism Authority to pool together
the meantime, phone and Internet monitoring by
national and provincial intelligence resources.
service providers needs to be made accessible by
However, obstacles to real time intelligence sharing
all law enforcement and security agencies.
still remain.
A lot of real time criminal intelligence is
There are serious infrastructural and capacity-
potentially available at the Police Station level.
building issues inflicting the police forces across
Due to adversarial police-public relationship, the
Pakistan. Though of late there is growing awareness
lines of intelligence flow from the community to the
and interest in relation to the use of information
local police are virtually choked. That is why it is so
and forensic technologies by law enforcement
critical to reinvent the Police Station.
agencies, there is a need for a sharper focus. The
Besides, there being no institutional National Police Bureau played a pivotal role as
mechanism for efficient intelligence sharing, the national focal point for addressing infrastructural
intelligence available with different agencies is not and capacity-building issues on a sustainable and
put to effective use. What we require is build stronger standardised basis when it steered four flagship
police modernisation projects relating to common
services at an estimated cost of Rs 7,952 million

during 2004-2008.27 The projects included:
As full adherence to basic rights ── Automated Fingerprint Identification System
of law-violating minority cannot be (Rs 1,107 million).
achieved except at the expense of ── Police Record and Office Management
rights of the law-abiding majority, Information System (Rs 1,405 million).
there is a need to debate the public ── Nationwide Integrated Trunk Radio System
policy imperative of tampering the
‘‘ (Rs 1,952 million).
basic rights of wayward individuals ── National Forensic Science Agency (Rs 3,488

Green Book 2019 125


million). The entire effort was to provide email, or data from damaged devices. In Khyber
new tools to upgrade police investigative Pakhtunkhwa, apart from improved facilities for
capacity. Sadly, no new projects were added specialised training, Mobile Forensic Laboratories
during past ten years. Even on-going projects have been established at Peshawar, Abbottabad,
suffered neglect for want of funds. and D. I. Khan. IT-based policing tools such as Geo
Tagging, Identity Verification System, Digitalisation
The National Police Bureau has a statutory of FIRs, Vehicle Verification System, Tenants
responsibility to perform its mandated functions like Information System, Police Assistance Lines, and
advising the Federal and Provincial Governments on Police Access Service are other welcome additions.
matters concerning police planning; development Balochistan received two mega infrastructural
and standardisation of police administration projects under a 2004 Federal Grant of more than
and equipment; police education and training;
police communications; criminal identification
facilities; developing standard operating
procedures based on internationally accepted good
practices particularly in relation to recruitment,
appointment, promotions, transfers, tenure and
discipline; and arranging research in such areas
as terrorism, sectarian and ethnic violence, drug
trafficking, organised crime, crime having inter-
Provincial and inter-National dimensions.
What National Police Bureau needs is better
quality human resource and a medium to long-
term development strategy to bring it at par with
international bodies like the College of Policing
in England and Wales. Setting standards in
professional development, including codes of
practice and regulations, the National Police
Bureau must ensure consistency in training, skills
and qualifications across the police forces in
The Provinces in recent years have also
started to invest, relatively, generously in capacity-
building and modernisation of their police forces,
particularly their Counter-Terrorism Departments Rs.10 billion. However, the Provincial Government
(CTDs). Punjab has particularly taken lead by took a retrograde step in rolling back Conversion
establishing a state-of-the-art forensic lab and a of “A” Area into “B” Area Project in 2008. However,
modern command and control centre in Lahore. without fundamentally changing the long-existing
Sindh has established a much-needed forensic Thana Culture, the induction of latest technology
training school that imparts training in crime alone is unlikely to make a significant difference.
scene management, physical evidence analysis,
For efficient and effective service delivery, police
basic detection, and fingerprint proficiency. Its
will have to turn more-than-century-old policing
Digital Computer Forensic Lab assists in anti-
practices upside down. The crisis is more profound
terror investigations by recovering lost and deleted
when there is inadequate provision of quality pre-
electronic files, deleted browsing history, deleted
and in-service training, when career progression
is not based on performance, when postings and
transfers are politicised, when policemen live off

the land, and when accountability mechanisms are
A lot of real time criminal intelligence either blunted or virtually non-existent. Policing
is potentially available at the Police is no longer a vocation. Ways and means based on
international good practices will have to be devised
Station level. Due to adversarial to turn policemen into competent professionals.
police-public relationship, the lines of Their education and training courses must cater
intelligence flow from the community to leadership development needs, as also to
stimulation of critical and innovative thinking.
to the local police are virtually choked.
That is why it is so critical to reinvent
There is little evidence that BPS 18-20 police
officers undergoing mandatory general-purpose
the Police Station courses – Mid Career Management Course, Senior

126 Green Book 2019


‘‘ Major structural reforms, including Though military and paramilitary forces in

Pakistan are playing a key role in the fight against
a standard police law that criminalises terrorism, counter-terrorism is primarily a police
extraneous interference in police function. If well-trained, well-equipped, and well-
resourced, the police is generally better suited to
administration and guarantees counter-terrorism. Police intelligence network
provisioning of adequate resources, are going down to local Police Station is potentially
necessary to create and sustain well- a more effective counter-terrorism tool. Police
performing, effective and accountable and security agencies have made tremendous
sacrifices while countering terrorism, and have
police forces won many a battle. They can do better. Major
reasons, why police is not able to do better, include
outdated laws, politicisation, poor professional
Management Course, and National Management development, inadequate resources, police-public
Course – become better police professionals. estrangement, police highhandedness, corruption
The way forward is a fundamental restructuring and ineffective accountability. Police need to build
involving a short spell of 2-4 weeks of common stronger partnerships with the community to
instruction at the National Institutes of Management improve their intelligence-gathering capabilities.
or National School of Public Policy (NSPP)/National Structured under the Police Act of 1861,
Defence University, as the case may be, followed Pakistan’s public-frightening police forces are
by 2-5 months of intensive specialised training neither adequately equipped nor sufficiently
at the National Police Academy. Also, different trained to effectively deal with mundane criminal
categories of police professionals may be issued activity, let alone serious crimes like terrorism.
ISO type certifications. These certifications may be For effective counter-terrorism, we need a
suspended for misconduct, poor performance or for police system which is politically neutral, non-
failure to fulfil minimum continuous professional authoritarian, accountable and responsive to the
development requirements. community, professionally efficient, and last but
Finally, politicised police recruitments, not least, which is an instrument of the rule of
postings and promotions are the bane of our law.
police system. If policemen are not recruited on There are several systemic issues confronting
merit, they neither take trainings seriously nor the police forces in Pakistan. These include
readily accept postings which are not of their serious quantitative and qualitative constraints,
liking. Using extraneous influence, they will extraneously-influenced policing operations,
successfully manage their postings, transfers police performance measures not based on
and promotions. The seniors will find it hard to internationally-accepted key performance
hold them accountable even for manifest acts of indicators but personal liking/disliking of those
misconduct. Indeed, their insatiable propensity to who mattered. Inadequate police budgets, poor
subvert normal departmental processes all through working conditions, insufficient support of
their careers is a source of severe impairment for forensic and information technologies, and lack of
the organisations they serve in. Major structural real time intelligence sharing between police and
reforms, including a standard police law that security agencies. The abysmally poor budgetary
criminalises extraneous interference in police allocation inevitably means that not enough money
administration and guarantees provisioning of is available for improving rank and file salaries,
adequate resources, are necessary to create and housing, transport facilities and health care. As
sustain well-performing, effective and accountable around 88% of the police force consists of lower
police forces. rank constables and head constables, absence
of shift system and poor promotion prospects
Conclusion adversely affect their morale and productivity. It
Terrorism is a form of crime that has bedevilled is time the police leadership came up with viable
Pakistan for many years. Political terrorism in solutions, based on international good practices,
Balochistan lasted for couple of years, before it for administering larger police forces efficiently
ended in 1977. Terrorist outfit, Al-Zulfiqar, remained and effectively. It is time to seriously consider
active for more than a decade, starting 1979. Ethno- delegating maximum powers to the field officers
political urban terrorism in Sindh peaked in 1990s. and the Inspector General Police dealing mainly
Sectarian terrorism has remained with us for with policy matters.
several decades. However, the terrorism that Al- Like most countries that have specialised
Qaeda and their affiliates started and sponsored in counter-terrorism agencies, Pakistan needs to have
the aftermath of 9/11 has proved to be the deadliest. a dedicated centralised counter-terrorism force to

Green Book 2019 127

deal with terrorism having inter-Provincial and of intelligence produced by specialised counter-
transnational dimensions. Forming partnerships terrorism agencies. On balance, general-duty
with local communities and businesses, police police can contribute more to counter-terrorism
can use local knowledge to assess the validity than specialised counter-terrorism agencies.

Notes Response. Frank Cass: Abingdon.

1. Abbas, H. (2009) ‘Role of Pakistan Police In Counterinsurgency’Brookings. 17. Maogoto, J. N. (2005). Battling Terrorism: Legal Perspective on the Use of
2. Brodeur, J. (1983) ‘High Policing and Low Policing: Remarks about the Force and the War on Terror.Aldershot, Hampshire, UK, Ashgate Publishing
Policing of Political Activities’, Social Problems, 30(5): 507-520. Limited.
3. Mastrofski, S. (1999) ‘Policing For People’, Ideas in American Policing, 18. Sepp, K. I. (2005), ‘Best Practices in Counterinsurgency’, Military Review.
Police Foundation: Washington. 19. Corum, J. S. (2006).Training Indigenous Forces in Counterinsurgency: A tale
4. Clancy, A., Hough, M., Aust, R. and Kershaw, C. (2001) Crime, Policing and of two insurgencies.Strategic Studies Institute.
Justice: The Experience of Ethnic Minorities.Findings from the 2000 British 20. Clarke, R. V. and Newman, G. R. (2007) ‘Police and the Prevention of
Crime Survey. Home Office: London. Terrorism’ in Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice’ (Oxford University
5. Tyler, T. (2004) ‘Enhancing Police Legitimacy’, the Annals of the American Press).
Academy of Political and Social Science, 593(1): 84-99. 21. Jones, S. G. and Libicki, M. C. (2008) ‘How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons
6. Skogan, W. (2006) ‘Asymmetry in the Impact of Encounters with the Police’ for Countering Al-Qaeda’, RAND Corporation.
Policing and Society 16(2): 99-126. 22. Bayley, D. H. and Weisburd. D. L. (2009), ‘Cops and Spooks: The Role of
7. Lowe, T. and Innes, M. (2008) ‘Countering Terror: Violent Radicalisation and Police in Counter-terrorism’ into Protect and to serve: Policing in an age of
Situational Intelligence’, Prison Service Journal, September 2008, No. 179. terrorism.
8. Audit Commission and HMIC (2008) Preventing Violent Extremism: 23. Waxman, M. C. (2009), ‘Police and National Security: American Local Law
Learning and Development Exercise. Department of Communities and Local Enforcement and Counter-Terrorism after 9/11’, Journal of National Security
Government: London. Law & Policy, Vol 3:337
9. Barrat, Sir Richard, Aspects of Policing in Pakistan, 1990. 24. Bayley, D. H. and Weisburd. D. L. (2009), ‘Cops and Spooks: The Role of
10. Report of the UN Mission to Pakistan: Organised Crime, 1995 (Islamabad: Police in Counter-terrorism’ in To Protect and to serve: Policing in an age of
UNDCP) terrorism.
11. Report of the Japanese Police Delegation on the Police System in Pakistan, 25. Abbas, H. (2011), ‘Reforming Pakistan’s Police and Law Enforcement
1996 Infrastructure’, Special Report 266, United States Institute of Peace,
12. Report of the Colombian Mission, 1999 (Karachi: CPLC) Washington DC.
13. The author was Chief of Police Karachi during this operation. 26. Bayley, D. H. and Perito, R. M. (2012).The Police in War: Fighting Insurgency,
14. Abbas, H. (2009) ‘Role of Pakistan Police In Counterinsurgency’ Brookings. Terrorism and Violent Crime. New Delhi: Viva Books.
15. Fair, C (2012) ‘Security Sector Governance in Pakistan: Progress, But Many 27. The author was Director General, National Police Bureau, during 2004-
Challenges Persist’, CIGI 2008.W
16. Wilkinson, P. (2001) Terrorism Versus Democracy: The Liberal State




‘‘is The most complete and decisive victory
to compel one’s enemy to give up its
purpose, while suffering no harm to

Brigadier Sheikh Ghulam Jilani is serving in

Pakistan Army

Of late international/regional powers are vehemently trying to mount a full scale hybrid warfare against
Pakistan. Threat spectrum of Pakistan has thus diversified quicker than anticipated. If this intimidation
remains unabated; Plummeting Economic Conditions, Internal Challenges and External Pressure may
push Pakistan towards a corner with limited response options. Such a situation may not be favourable for
Pakistan, region and the world. Paper takes stock of the existing drivers, players, dominant challenges
of strategic game and likely spectrum of conflict. A reappraisal of certain dynamic measures to avert this
worst case scenario ensuring uplift of Pakistan is also touched upon.

Keywords: Power Centres, Coercion, Hybrid Warfare, Strategic Goals, CPEC, Nuclear, Diplomacy, Internal
Security, Spectrum of Conflict, Threat Manifestation

Green Book 2019 129


Pakistan is the geo-strategic and geo-economic

pivot of Asia and it is interesting that same was also
prophesised by Quaid in 1948.2 However, due to its
strategic location and hegemonic India, coupled
with competing global interests, it has remained
a target of coercion. Importance of Indian Ocean
and place of Pakistan aka Gwadar is much evident
as it’s being manifested now and was visualised
much before.3 Role of other variables (CPEC, Brexit,
Trump-ism, JCPOA, and Economy) and perpetual
hostility against Pakistan with manifestation as
Hybrid War4 is also growing, gnawing, hedging
and compelling. Pakistan is a declared nuclear
state whose isolation/strangulation may have
serious regional/global implications. It’s a known
fact that any misadventure against Pakistan would

only materialise if Pakistan’s behaviour seriously
impinges on US strategic goals – physically or
orld Order is continuously in cognitive domain. US and its conglomerates
morphing due to the power play would progressively employ all options for a
of existing and emerging power coercive compliance – for instance to act against
centres. International political the Afghan Taliban and pro-Kashmiri groups and
fabric is knit around competing as a rider clause to accept unilateral restraints on
interests of nation-states. We Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programmes. US’
are living in an era of complex interdependence, obsessive fixation on attacking the so called safe
wherein cooperation and coercive approaches havens of the TTP which might actually be a mere
continue to be applied concurrently. Actions smoke screen to target nodal points of the OBOR/
like, economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, CPEC. Moreover using Daesh as proxy by US is a
information operations and limited use of force are high probability so that it weakens Afghan Taliban
being undertaken by states to meet the political internally and foments terrorism inside Pakistan
objectives. simultaneously. The materialisation of any serious
threat against Pakistan will entail shaping of
environment involving regional and extra regional

Global Players
Iran. Since long, Iran has been a subject of
stringent economic isolationist policies of US.
Divergence in EU and US on Iran, issue is weakening
US while Iran a militarily strong nation, is grappling
with the situation under a strong leadership
and nation- hood. Russian relations with Iran
are strategically very important. Economic and
financial isolation of Iran by coercing the country’s
financial institutions and banks economically
engaged with, it has been an important part of
the coercion strategy. But Iran still finds countries
like Russia and China who trade with. As Stefano
Salustri says, Iran’s nuclear programme problem
remains unresolved and the pressure put on Iran,
by the US, Israel and the other countries, is rebuffed

“Pakistan is the pivot of the world, placed on the

frontier on which the future position of the world
‘‘ Pakistan is a declared nuclear state
whose isolation/strangulation may have
Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah serious regional/global implications

130 Green Book 2019


by Russia and China. Hence effective isolation will
always be difficult, especially in the changing
Economic and financial isolation of
world economic environment. Yet the US is willing Iran by coercing the country’s financial
to take pains at plugging all possible financial institutions and banks economically
loopholes and convincing her global partners to
support her tireless efforts patiently. Redundancy
engaged with, it has been an important
of global transactions and willingness of countries part of the coercion strategy
to circumvent the US-led economic sanctions for
their peculiar state interests emerge as important
barriers to strategic coercion. Leaning of Iran
spheres of influence in critical spaces around the
towards Pakistan is obvious and can be of a great
globe and ruin India’s regional ambitions. It would
assistance in the grand strategic game.5
also make Pakistan economically self-reliant and
increasingly defiant of Indian belligerence and
domination and US coercion. This is unacceptable
to both, thus they feel compelled to challenge
China’s ingress into the region. China Russia
cooperation is also causing concerns to US,6 while
Pakistan is being targeted by US and India for its
high profile role in BRI through CPEC.7

Turkey. Despite having strong historical relations

with US and economic ties with Israel, Turkey is also
being targeted explicitly by US on accounts of its role
in the global politics, especially Syria and Palestine
issues. KSA-Turkey entanglement on Khashoggi
murder is also affecting the regional canvass. Pak-Turk
relations are historically very good and can assist in a
big way in any misadventure.
China. It is the only nation which is challenging
US in the region mostly due to economic strength and Russia. Russian resurgence and growing
matching military capability. Chinese BRI initiative influence in the Eurasian bloc is alarming for US.
is causing ripples across the globe and US led world Increased cooperation with Iran, Syria and Turkey
order is being challenged due to its inclusivity. The is directly against the US interests and same is
US-India axis is genuinely scared of the OBOR/CPEC voiced by US as well. SCO is exerting now beyond
initiatives as China threatens to overtake the US as security as well with increase in its members and
the pre-eminent economic power of the world and activities. Russia immediately filled the political
simultaneously leave India far behind in its wake and military void which has been created as a
at the regional level. This will adversely affect US result of increased US coercion against Pakistan.
Such concerns have now resulted in the US freezing
military assistance, which included anti-terrorism
training. Moscow’s increased assistance has
included training in counter-terrorism, and Russia
has been conducting joint military exercises with
Pakistan despite years of discord between the two
countries. Pakistan’s recent coziness with Russia
is being viewed frantically by US while it is much
needed in present times.

Green Book 2019 131

Pak-China joint training exercise

India. With a strong economy, diversified any positive act remains hostage to this feeling.
diplomacy and relevance to US, Israel, Afghanistan However, Taliban have a different orientation
and other nations it is hedging Chinese influence. towards Pakistan.
US-India multidimensional assault on Pakistan is
taking a concrete shape now. The Indian sponsored
terrorist and militant prongs were exemplified
by the arrest of Kulbhushan Jadhav, the Indian
master spy, from Balochistan. Modi Administration
through RAW sponsors a media prong which
recently organised a “Free Balochistan” campaign
in Geneva.8 This unexpected upsurge of moral
indignation, timed superbly with the projected visits
of US functionaries to Pakistan is clearly intended
to put it (and China) under increasing pressure and
acquiring a more domineering negotiating posture.
Prime issue of Kashmir remains unsettled and
it dominates all other initiatives by either side –
intentions not-withstanding.

Possibility of Emergence of a New

Strategic Bloc
Given the above parameters, there is a
likelihood of emergence of a new regional bloc
involving Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and back up
support of China and Russia. If materialised may
change the geo-strategic great game; likely to make
India irrelevant in the strategic equation, partially
reduce the influence of US in the region and also
induce attraction for littoral states of Maldives,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Japan
Kulbhushan Jadhav – Indian Spy arrested from Balochistan
and Korea. CARs and other existing energy
corridors (Persian Gulf, Black Sea and Caspian
Afghanistan. US’ failures in the longest war Sea) may be denied to US-led strategic blocs. This
are so far causing pressures domestically and also coincides with the BRI concept of strategic
internationally as well. NATO policies (mostly US- linkages.
led) have yet to deliver. The US is literally isolated in
the region; only tenuously established in northern Miscellaneous Contributory Factors
Afghanistan, with an estranged Pakistan in the ── Nuclear Issue vis-a-vis Terrorism. Of
East and peripheral India distant and unwilling to late, despite fail-safe mechanism emplace,
take part militarily. Failure of US-Taliban talks and nuclear issue is being linked with terrorism
tagging Pak as part of problem is not auguring well. through propagating the narrative of “nuclear
Recent victories of Taliban have also put the Afghan weapons falling in the hands of terrorists.9
government and US/NATO forces in a quandary. On the contrary, India is being facilitated
Afghan government itself suffers from induced for membership of Nuclear Supply Group
hatred for Pakistan due to US/Indian factor and (NSG) thus coercion against Pakistan on
nuclear issue is adjudged as selective and

China-Russia cooperation is also ── Kashmir Issue. Since 2001, India has un-
causing concerns to US, while Pakistan successfully tried to link Kashmiri freedom
is being targeted by US and India for its
‘‘ struggle with terrorism. Off late, the trend
of blaming Pakistan without any credible
high profile role in BRI through CPEC evidence and threat of use of force has

132 Green Book 2019


increased as witnessed during the events

of Mumbai attack in 2008, Pathankot, Uri
incidents and fake surgical strikes in 2016.
It also continues to commit unabated gross
human rights’ violations not only to subdue
the indigenous freedom struggle but to coerce
Pakistan to abandon its political, diplomatic
and moral support of legitimate Kashmir
── Pakistan’s new regime and developing
trajectory is not acceptable to India as it goes
against their strategic interests.
── Pakistan’s growing alliances with China,
Russia and Iran are emerging as a counter
weight in the region. With China growing each
Prime Minister Imran Khan performed the groundbreaking of the
day and entering of more nations in CPEC, it is long-awaited corridor connecting Gurdwara Darbar Sahib in Kartarpur
gnawing the space and hedging out all other to India’s Gurdaspur district (28 Novmeber 2018)
players who are opposing CPEC/BRI/OBOR
── Failure of US in Afghanistan. its economic mainstay on IMF/IFIs as well as
military assistance11 from US is vulnerable to
Possible Threat Manifestation strategic coercion – economic sanctions as
experienced in the past. The external loans12
── US & Allies (IFIs) to exploit Pakistan’s and balance of payment issues can afford an
economic vulnerabilities – economic opportunity to inimical forces to dissuade
coercion and strangulation. Pakistan due to Pakistan; policy change/regression on certain
issues. However, due to emerging multi-
polarity and emerging power blocs, the effects

may not be that severe, lest other global
To contain Chinese influence in IOR, players, allies and IFIs completely comply
US is stepping up quadrilateral efforts with the inimical forces.
to check assertive and aggressive ── Chinese initiative of OBOR/BRI is attracting
Chinese behaviour through joint international propaganda, especially from US
regional infrastructure scheme aided
‘‘ lobby. CPEC while centre piece to complete
idea is also in the eye of the storm. Indian
by India, Japan and Australia lobby, US think tanks and other experts are

Pakistan’s Total External Debt

USD Million

Green Book 2019 133


── Project Pakistan as safe haven for Taliban and
The China-Russia-Iran-Pakistan- virulent Information Operations campaign to
Turkey (CRIPT) alignment as a isolate Pakistan.
competing pole to the US-India axis Response Strategy
must crystallise post haste. This Longer-term perspectives, rational mindsets,
due diligence and honest common sense are
alliance is supported by geography, required for policies to develop credibility,
convergences and the dictates of the ‘‘ direction and momentum. Stage 3 is the worst case
prevailing geo-political environment and has to be avoided by mitigating the effects
of Stage 2 with an aim to get out of even Stage 1.
New regional bloc is a great game changer and
strategically very rewarding. Its pursuance may
causing aspersions on the intentions of China be a sagacious and prudent step with necessary
quoting Humbantota models.13 preparations. Measures required to mitigate the
effects of coercion in various domains include:
── US maritime presence in IOR shall continue
── Diplomatic
to not impose check on BRI, but will also play
significant role in economic strangulation. ○○ Pakistan’s approach towards regionalism
The strategic environment in the Indian should be the hallmark of foreign policy.
Ocean is changing fast. In the last few years, Regional crisis management involving
the growing strategic rivalry between major China; rebuilding trust with Kabul;
powers like China and India is expanding. and mutual trust with US and cordial
To contain Chinese influence in IOR, US is relations should be maintained with
stepping up quadrilateral efforts to check Russia, Turkey, Iran and KSA.
assertive and aggressive Chinese behaviour
○○ Pakistan must endeavour to save its
through joint regional infrastructure scheme
relationship with the US without prejudice
aided by India, Japan and Australia.14 China’s to its national interests. Simultaneously, it
moves and Indo-US responses are brewing a must pre-empt this expected US coercion
new cold war in IOR. by engaging China, Russia, Iran, Turkey,
── Enhanced efforts to counter Pakistan’s KSA, GCC and major world capitals on the
nuclear and strategic capabilities, including threats posed to it and the region.
cyber attacks.15 ○ ○ The China-Russia-Iran-Pakistan-Turkey
── Selective application of ‘Lawfare’ and ‘R2P’16 (CRIPT) alignment as a competing pole to
in the garb of human rights violations, and the US-India axis must crystallise post haste.
subdue Pakistan’s sovereignty. This alliance is supported by geography,

Spectrum of Conflict for Pakistan

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3

Enhanced PEDWC
Stages Coercion (CPEC disrupted, Economic
Diplomatic Coercion

Strangulation, Isolation Various reasons carved for

Ongoing as of by slapping sanctions pressurising Pakistan to become a
today on Pakistan using any pliant state (using both kinetic and
reasons non-kinetic means)

Not acceptable Pakistan to break the Pakistan decides to retaliate all out
to Pakistan vicious cycle by diplomacy with help of its allies

134 Green Book 2019


convergences and the dictates of the ── Military

prevailing geo-political environment. ○○ Pakistan should continue to focus on
○○ It must also seek alternate sources of trade, technological advancements to offset the
economic sustenance and cooperation. conventional asymmetry.
Pakistan must forge national solidarity and ○○ Build on existing military-to-military
unity and prepare its multidimensional relations and forge new partnerships
responses vis-a-vis the US presence in encompassing all areas of cooperation.
Afghanistan. Under no circumstances
should it agree to fight the Afghan war on ○○ Pakistan must continue to maintain its policy
terror in Pakistan, again. of credible minimum nuclear deterrence.
○○ Information operations are vital for ○○ Enhanced military diplomacy with
perception management17 and to dispel regional countries.
false narratives. In this domain following ○○ Exercise vigilance internally and in all
needs to be done: relevant institutions to prevent and counter
attempts by the hostile actors to develop
ƒƒ Under the umbrella of NACTA,
such ‘rationales’ to constrain Pakistan’s
specialised platform may be established
strategic programmes.
to develop narratives18 to counter
information onslaught against Pakistan. ○○ Terrorism and other sub-nationalist
tendencies which can be exploited for
ƒƒ Establish Pakistan centre in leading conversion into proxies must be kept under
think tanks to promote positive watch.
perception across the globe.
○○ Pakistan should extend sincere desire for
ƒƒ Encourage academia to participate in conflict avoidance and strategic restraint in
international seminars and conferences, South Asia.
with a positive message from Pakistan.
── Internal Security. Domestically taking
○○ Foreign policy must have its objectives, necessary measures to eliminate residual
priorities and red lines. Special emphasis threat across the board by logically concluding
be given to the foreign missions in Iran, operation Radd-Ul-Fasaad with enhanced focus
KSA, India, USA, and Russia. and political will.
○○ Pakistan to remain relevant in Afghan ── Economic
peace equation through effective military
diplomacy and security agreements. ○○ While CPEC offers a lifetime opportunity
Moreover any Indian security role in to Pakistan for its economic rise to thwart
Afghanistan be opposed. challenges, stakes of other countries in the
project is recommended to be developed.
○○ Best practices for economic development
must be institutionalised by taking correct
○○ Diversification in economic development.
○○ Domestic measures – anti corruption.
In order to reduce dependency on IFIs,
attention may be given to a progressive
and self-sustained economic growth.
── Political. Ensuring good governance and
building national consensus through an
inclusive approach engaging all stake holders
through dialogue and promotion of a strong
national narrative.
─ ─ Legal Framework and Lawfare. Despite
an increased Indian diplomatic clout which
India maintains and as a consequence is
able to garner more support internationally,
Pakistan must continue to highlight
contentious issues. Pakistan should also
develop its expertise in understanding of
international legal framework and using

Green Book 2019 135


lawfare as a means to achieve to desired ends.

In this regard, it is suggested to establish
an International Legal Framework Division
under the foreign office to identify legal
avenues which can be explored and utilised
to counter Indian designs.

Strategic challenges confronting Pakistan could
be addressed through governance at home; geo- INDIAN OCCUPIED

strategic and geo-economic cooperation with China (Disputed Territory)

& Russia; substantive relations with US based on

mutual concerns. A non-confrontational, dialogue-
based and problem solving working relationship
with India despite outstanding differences and
developing mutual confidence with Afghanistan.
Such an integrated approach could progressively
limit India’s ability to use Afghanistan against
Pakistan; improve Pakistan’s image and reduce
US suspicion and Indian hostility. This under a
strong and sincere leadership needs policy realism
and imagination; a well-resourced and influential
foreign service; and an intellectually active foreign
policy community. These priorities will need to be
embedded in a national transformation process.
Notes 11. Article, US Sanctions on Pakistan and their failure as a Strategic Deterrent by
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belisarius Shublangi Pandey, published on August 1, 2018 at https://www.orfonline.org/
2. Interview of Quaid by Margaret Bourke White, published as cover story of LIFE research/42912
magazine January 1948, https://www.youlinmagazine.com/story/vision-of- 12. Pakistan Economic Survey; Pakistan Foreign Debt and Liabilities Surged 14
the-founding-father-quaid-i-azam-muhammad-ali-jinnah per cent in FY18, Touch $ 95.097 billion https://profit.pakistantoday.com.
3. Book, Monsoon. Penned by , Robert D Kaplan: The Indian Ocean and the pk/2018/08/16/pakistan-foreign-debt-and-liabilities-surged-14-percent-in-
Future of American Power fy18-touch-95-097-
4. Article, India’s Hybrid Warfare and Pakistan’s Response, published on 25 May 13. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/303946910_HAMBANTOTA_
2018 at https://nation.com.pk SRI_LANKA_CHALLENGES_IN_USING_A_%27NEW_CITY%27_PLANNING_
5. Article, Pakistan – Iran vow to improve military ties by Baqir Sajjad Syed, APPROACH_TO_REGIONAL_GROWTH_IN_DEVELOPING_COUNTRIES
published on July 17, 2018, at https://www.dawn.com/news/1420539 14. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-beltandroad-quad/australia-u-
6. Article, Why Russia and China Are Strengthening Security Ties by Alexander s-india-and-japan-in-talks-to-establish-belt-and-road-alternative-report-
Gabuav, published on September 24, 2018 at https://carnegie.ru/2018/09/24/ idUSKCN1G20WGAustralia, U.S., India and Japan in talks to establish Belt and
why-russia-and-china-are-strengthening-security-ties-pub-77333 Road alternative: report February 19 2018.
7. Article, The China Pakistan Economic Corridor, Beyond the Rule of Capital? 15. Article, US Cyber Warfare against Pakistan, by Riaz Haq, published in Pakistan
by Aasim Sajjad Akhtar published on June 01,2018 Defence on October 19, 2018 at https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/us-cyber-
8. Article, US’ Coercion and Pakistan by Imran Malik, Published in The Nation warfare-against-pakistan.135552/.
published on October 11, 2017 at https://nation.com.pk/11-Oct-2017/us- 16. Report of the International Commission on Intervention and State Soverignity
coercion-pakistan on Responsibility to Protect; published in December 2001 at https://www.
9. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/us-worried- lawfareblog.com/tagged/responsibility-protect-r2p.
pakistans-nuclear-weapons-could-land-up-in-terrorists-hands-official/ 17. Article, Shaping the Information Space by Douglas Dearth published in
articleshow/60220358.cms Volume 1, Issue 3 of Journal of Information Warfare
10. Article, At 2+2 talks, India seeks US help in a new bid to enter NSG published 18. https://nacta.gov.pk/national-narrative/
on October 15, 2018 in Hindustan Times, at https://www.hindustantimes.com/

136 Green Book 2019

Exercise Peace Mission 2018, Heads of Armed Forces of SCO countries


Green Book 2019 137


Shafqat Kakakhel is a former UN
Assistant Secretary General, Deputy High
Commissioner in New Delhi and High
Commissioner in Nairobi. Presently he is
Chairperson of Sustainable Development
Policy Institute (SDPI) – Islamabad

138 Green Book 2019


Climate Change is widely recognised as the defining challenge of our times and an existential threat to the
planet and its inhabitants. The global consensus on climate change, including its causes and consequences,
has been shaped and sustained by robust scientific research. The UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) adopted at the UN Conference on Environment and Development held in the Brazilian
city of Rio in June 1992 represents the quintessential statement of global consensus on climate change.1
UNFCCC has facilitated annual climate change conferences aimed at translating the objectives of the
UNFCC into concrete measures. The security implications of climate change have received increasing
attention following debates on the subject by the UN General Assembly and Security Council in 2007-8.2
The security-related impacts of climate change include declining fresh water leading to reduced food
production; sluggish socio-economic development; heightened health hazards; internal displacement
and migration, and intra-regional conflicts over distribution of natural resources jeopardising national
unity. All these are relevant for Pakistan’s national security and, therefore, deserve due recognition and

Keywords: Climate Change, Global Consensus on Climate Change, UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Kyoto Protocol, Paris Agreement (2015), Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, Adverse

Effects of Climate Change, the Climate Change —National Security Nexus

limate change impacts can only be security as well as determined and coordinated
addressed through deliberate and actions to protect Pakistan’s socio-economic
concerted efforts at national level development from the ravages of climate change
and regional and global cooperation impacts. It also calls for strengthening the resilience
underpinned by science and motivated of our people and the natural ecosystems to counter
by global solidarity. Whilst some the risks posed by climate change. It also refers to
impacts of climate change will be irreversible, the positive contribution of Pakistan defence forces
mitigation of the drivers of global warming and to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
adaptation to its negative consequences will enable
the international community to reduce the damage Global Consensus on the Drivers and
caused by climate change.
Consequences of Climate Change
Climate change is a threat resulting from
human actions, in particular the huge increase in The United Nations Framework Convention
emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), especially on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adopted at the UN
carbon dioxide (CO2) caused by the burning of fossil Conference on Environment and Development
fuels such as coal and oil for producing energy (UNCED, also known as the Rio Summit) held in Rio
to drive large scale industrial and agricultural
production and controlling severe cold weather.

The likely security implications of climate
change have been discussed by the UN General Climate change is a threat resulting
Assembly and the Security Council. The climate from human actions, in particular the
change- security nexus in relation to Pakistan’s huge increase in emissions of greenhouse
national security has also been examined by official
and independent Think Tanks and experts.3 gases (GHG), especially carbon dioxide
This paper probes the likely implications of the (CO2) caused by the burning of fossil
negative effects of climate change on Pakistan’s fuels such as coal and oil for producing
national security according to both the traditional
energy to drive large scale industrial and
and contemporary definitions of national security.
It calls for recognition of climate change as a key
agricultural production and controlling
national and human security imperative in a new, severe cold weather
comprehensive definition of Pakistan’s national

Green Book 2019 139


(Brazil) in June 1992, states the global consensus on hurricanes, heat waves, and droughts; rapid
the causes and consequences of climate change and melting of snow and ice stored by high altitude
how the international community could address it.4 glaciers, as well as in the Arctic. Accelerated
The negotiations leading up to the agreement on melting of ice and snow would trigger higher sea
the Climate Convention were preceded by a number levels and in the long run cause diminished supply
of high level conferences convened by UN agencies of fresh water.
and the first report of the Inter-Governmental Panel The UNFCCC recognised that the adverse
on Climate Change (IPCC), established by the UN effects of climate change would hit the developing
in 1988 to assess the global climate change and countries the hardest and proclaimed the obligation
suggest response measures, issued in 1990.5 of developed countries to provide finance,
The UNFCCC recognised that human- induced technology, and capacity building assistance to
climate change had taken place mainly due to the the developing countries so as to enable them to
huge increase in the emissions of heat-trapping cope with the negative consequences of climate
greenhouse gases (GHG), especially CO2, by the change and continue to achieve socio-economic
industrialised countries caused by the burning of development.
fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas for producing The Convention established a conference of
energy for large scale production of goods as well parties (known as COPs) to be held annually in order
as overcoming severe cold. to legislate measures for enhanced international

It also recognised the impacts of climate change cooperation for stabilising the global climate
such as higher surface and ocean temperatures; through the implementation of the international
rising sea level; increase in the number, frequency commitments stipulated in the Convention. In 1997,
and intensity of extreme weather events like floods, the conference of parties held in the Japanese city of

‘‘ The UNFCCC recognised that the adverse effects of climate change would hit the
developing countries the hardest and proclaimed the obligation of developed countries
to provide finance, technology, and capacity building assistance to the developing
countries so as to enable them to cope with the negative consequences of climate
change and continue to achieve socio-economic development

140 Green Book 2019


Kyoto adopted a protocol called the Kyoto Protocol

whereby 38 industrialised countries agreed to slash
their GHG emissions by 5% below the 1990 levels
up to 2012.6 (The US failed to ratify the Protocol).
Inter-governmental negotiations held at the COPs
since 2009 aimed at a new post- 2012 Agreement
made negligible progress owing to the apparent
unwillingness of the developed countries to commit
themselves to deeper cuts in their GHG emissions
as well as to fulfil their commitment to provide
financial, technology, and capacity building
assistance to developing countries. Industrialised
countries called for GHG reduction by rapidly
developing countries such as China. Their negative
disposition stiffened despite warnings by the IPCC
based on the findings of scores of climate change
centres in the developed countries that the pace of
global warming had accelerated due to unabated
increase in GHG emissions leading to a spike in
climate-related extreme events in different parts of
the world, especially in the developing countries ── The Warsaw International Mechanism on
and warranted strong global responses.7 Following Loss and Damage. to support developing
protracted and deeply polarised negotiations, countries in coping with the damage and loss
the UNFCCC COP held in Paris in December 2015 resulting from climate change impacts.
adopted a non-legally binding agreement called
the Paris Agreement (PA) which reiterated the ── Technology Mechanism. for promoting
consensus achieved in 1992 and substantiated by transfer of climate friendly technology to
scientific research that climate change represented developing countries.
“an urgent and potentially irreversible threat to ── Network of organisations. for promoting
human societies and the planet” and pledged to capacity building related to climate change
“uphold and promote regional and international mitigation and adaptation in developing
cooperation in addressing climate change.” The countries. The various arrangements
PA proclaimed the global goal of limiting surface
stipulated in the PA were to be operationalised
and ocean temperature increase to less than
through decisions of the COP no later than
two degrees Celsius (2°C) through reduction on
voluntary basis by all countries in their GHG 2018.9
emissions. The reduction measures are to be listed Whilst representing a success of multilateral
and updated periodically in a document called diplomacy, the PA has been decried by scientists
“Intended Nationally Determined Commitments” as an inadequate response to climate change. The
(INDCs).8 The PA established several mechanisms removal of distinction between developed and
for supporting developing countries, namely: developing countries that were a corner stone
── Green Climate Fund. to which developed of the UNFCCC and the voluntary nature of GHG
countries shall provide US$ 100 billion reduction pledges have also been criticised.
annually up to 2025 (prior to a new ceiling to The progress in finalising the operationalisation of
be set before 2025). the key provisions of the PA has been excruciatingly
slow. It would not be less than a miracle if COP 24
in Poland in December 2018 is able to accomplish

the unfinished agenda of operationalising the PA.
President Trump’s decision on US President Trump’s decision on US withdrawal
withdrawal from the PA and his relentless from the PA and his relentless efforts to reverse
efforts to reverse the initiatives of the the initiatives of the previous US Administrations
to promote development of renewable energy and
previous US Administrations to promote curb GHG emissions by various sectors within the
development of renewable energy and US have caused a setback to global climate friendly
curb GHG emissions by various sectors actions.10
within the US have caused a setback to
China has increased its development and
deployment of clean energy, phased out coal
global climate friendly actions fired plants and taken other carbon reduction

Green Book 2019 141


measures. It has also pledged to promote enhanced
international cooperation to reduce GHG emissions. Throughout the 21st century climate
Overall, there is a discernible decline in change impacts are projected to slow
support for international cooperation for climate down economic growth, make poverty
change among the OECD countries thanks to the
alleviation more difficult, further erode
recrudescence of narrowly defined nationalism in
several European countries.
food security and prolong existing and
The spirit of global solidarity forged in Rio and create new poverty traps
renewed in Paris faces serious challenges leaving
developing countries to fend for themselves.
There are encouraging signs of enhanced the UN Secretary General (UN SG) to submit a
cooperation on climate change in various regions. report on “the possible security implications of
However, in South Asia the initiatives launched climate change’’ “at the next 64th session of the UN
under the umbrella of the South Asia Association General Assembly” (in 2008).
for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) have not made The UN SG’s report on ‘Climate Change and
any significant headway, especially in view of the its Possible Security Implications’ noted that
present Indian Government’s apparent lack of
climate change could heighten human insecurity
enthusiasm for SAARC.11
by threatening food security and human health by
causing increased exposure to extreme events such
Global Discourse on Climate Change-Security as floods, droughts, storms, hurricanes etc. Second,
Nexus it could slow down and reverse the gains of socio-
The security dimension of climate change was economic development, thereby undermining the
recognised as far back as June 1988 by a major ability of states to maintain internal peace and
international climate change conference convened stability. Third, climate change could increase the
by the Canadian Government in Toronto on ‘The risk of domestic conflict by triggering population
Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global displacement, involuntary migration, domestic
Security’. conflict or violence related to competition for
natural resources including water and land in
The conference had warned that changes Africa and South Asia. Fourth, climate change could
in world climate “represent a major threat to cause loss of territory and statelessness, especially
international security”, adding that “the potentially in the case of small island developing states as a
severe economic and social dislocation for present
result of sea-level rise and inundation. Finally,
and future generations would worsen international
climate change could potentially cause conflicts
tensions and increase the risk of conflicts among
between countries sharing trans-boundary water or
and within nations”.12 However, the emphasis on
other resources, e.g., in South Asia and Africa. The
the security implications of climate change was not
report specifically referred to the India-Pakistan
echoed in the global discussions and negotiations
Indus Waters Treaty and the need for “efforts…at
on climate change. This was perhaps because
all levels to ensure its continued effectiveness”.13
influential countries did not wish to re-define
the mandates of the UN Security Council and The UN SG’s report recognised that climate
other inter-governmental processes concerning change could act as a “threat multiplier” that would
international peace and security. exacerbate existing threats posed by persistent
In 2007 the Security Council deliberated the poverty, weak state institutions for resource
security implications of climate change at which management and conflict resolution, fault-lines
representatives of developing countries highlighted and historic mistrust between communities and
the threats to their security and in the case of island nations as well as inadequate access to information
states to their very survival. The Security Council and resources. However, the report also listed a
called on all UN agencies “to intensify their efforts number of “threat minimisers” which could reduce
in considering and addressing climate change, climate-related insecurity such as climate change
including its security implications”. It requested mitigation and adaptation, economic development,
democratic governance, strong local and national
institutions , international cooperation, preventive

diplomacy and mediation, timely availability of
The spirit of global solidarity forged information, and increased support for research
and analysis to improve understanding of climate
in Rio and renewed in Paris faces
serious challenges leaving developing
‘‘ change—security inter-linkages. The report called
for “a comprehensive, fair, and effective global
countries to fend for themselves agreement” that could help stabilise our climate,

142 Green Book 2019

With 80% of our staple grains dependent on irrigated farming, any reduction in water
supply will cause a drop in food production and threaten our fragile food security

protect development gains, assist vulnerable The main sources of Pakistan’s surface water
nations adapt to climate change and build a more are the melting of snow and ice melt in the high
secure, sustainable and equitable society”. The altitude Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH)
General Assembly expressed support for the SG‘s regions and the monsoons. Both are highly
recommendations.14 vulnerable to climate change. Like all high-altitude
Significantly, the latest, fifth assessment report glaciers those in HKH have experienced rapid
of the IPCC(2013-14) included a sub-section on recession.
the impacts of climate change on human security The indispensability of irrigation for Pakistan’s
such as increased displacement of people due to agriculture sector is a crucial determinant of its
lack of resources and extreme weather events in vulnerability given the likely decline (up to 25%
poor countries which could increase the risk of according to some estimates) in surface water due
violent conflicts. The report also referred to the to recession of glaciers and variable precipitation
“trans boundary impacts of climate change such from the monsoons’ winds. With 80% of our
as changes in sea ice, shared water resources.” staple grains dependent on irrigated farming, any
and warned that “throughout the 21st century reduction in water supply will cause a drop in food
climate change impacts are projected to slow down production and threaten our fragile food security.t
economic growth, make poverty alleviation more Agriculture and Livestock sector contributes a
difficult, further erode food security and prolong fifth to our GDP; provide 40% of all jobs; supports
existing and create new poverty traps”.15 livelihoods of the majority of our population in the
At the national level, the US and a few rural areas; and nearly 80% of raw material for our
largely agro-based exports. This is a serious source
other countries have identified climate change
of vulnerability.
as a national security imperative. The respected
Global Military Advisory Council on Climate Population explosion illustrated by a six-fold
Change comprising senior retired military officers increase in population (from 32 million in 1947 to
(including Ex-Defence Secretary General Tariq around 200 million at present) constitutes a major
Waseem Ghazi) of several countries has issued factor of vulnerability.
a number of reports underlining the security Pakistan’s 1000 km long coastline exposes our
dimensions of climate change.16 coastal cities and communities to all the socio-
economic and humanitarian consequences of
The Impacts of Climate Change on higher sea levels destroying human settlements
and livelihoods and contaminating surface and
Pakistan and their Security Implications ground water sources.
Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change is Unabated de-forestation in Pakistan
dictated by a host of geo-physical and man-made accentuates our vulnerability given the vital role
factors. The former include the country’s location in of forests in restraining flooding and providing
a pre-dominantly warm, sub-tropical zone with low livelihoods. The non-physical causes of Pakistan’s
average rates of precipitation (60% of the country climate-related vulnerability include: low rates
receives less than 250 mm rain annually; only 24% of economic development leading to growing
get between 250-500 mm of rain); Pakistan’s arid unemployment and poverty; inefficient and
land and soil conditions and seasonal variations in unaccountable governance; mismanagement of
supply of water, the country’s critical dependence fiscal and other resources; endemic corruption;
on surface water supplied by the Indus River huge losses made by large state-owned and state-
System and the twice annual monsoons . run enterprises; terrorism linked to Pakistan’s

Green Book 2019 143


involvement on conflicts in the region and religious The Human and National Security Impacts
extremism; decaying physical infrastructure and of Climate Change
decadent human resources; and unsatisfactory
relations with neighbours warranting growing Pakistan’s national security narrative has,
expenditure on defence exacerbate Pakistan’s by and large, emphasised the military dimension
acute vulnerability to the disruptive and destructive given our seven decades long adversarial relations
effects of global warming and climate change. with India and our turbulent relations with
Pakistan’s macro-level fault lines which are Afghanistan. However, as articulated by our
likely to be amplified by climate change impacts political leaders and armed forces’ chiefs as well
such as rising sea level, recession of HKH glaciers, as national security experts and Think Tanks, our
erratic monsoons, decline in availability and national security doctrine must include recognition
deterioration of the quality of fresh water and of socio-economic development, human resources,
the consequent decrease in already stagnant national health, the state’s capacity to deliver
agricultural productivity, increase in the frequency justice, basic social amenities and timely relief to
and severity of floods , droughts, hurricanes, heat people affected by floods, droughts, heat waves and
waves and storms coupled with poor governance other extreme weather events as key determinants
will further slowdown socio-economic development and paramount objectives of our national security.
and make poverty eradication virtually impossible. It is widely recognised that the adverse socio-
The sectors especially sensitive to the adverse economic consequences of climate change would
effects of climate change include: agriculture and make adequate military budgets in-feasible.
livestock; energy production affected by non- Frequent extreme events such as floods and
availability of water droughts would directly
needed for hydroelectric threaten vital military

plants; health care; and strategic assets and
disaster prevention and A likely decline in the flows of the installations such as
management capacity at Indus River due to climate change military cantonments;
national and provincial hydropower and nuclear
levels; arid and semi- impacts is likely to accentuate tensions power generation
arid regions. These in Indo-Pak relations. Similarly, a capacities; railways,
adverse impacts will also roads and other
exacerbate political and
decrease in the inflows of the Kabul transport infrastructure.
social conflicts, including River originating in Afghanistan could These will necessitate
inter-regional and intra-
cause additional strains in our accident- increasing involvement
regional differences.17 of our military forces
prone ties with Afghanistan in providing relief
Nearly 80% of the
waters of the Indus assistance and
River Basin originate outside Pakistan, in Tibet rehabilitation of vital infrastructure which would
plateau, in India, and in Afghanistan which mean thinning down their presence in sensitive
makes continued access to trans-boundary rivers border regions and other locations.
a national security imperative. A likely decline in Our defence forces can make invaluable
the flows of the Indus River due to climate change contribution to efforts to alleviate the hardships
impacts is likely to accentuate tensions in Indo-Pak caused by extreme weather events linked to
relations. Similarly, a decrease in the inflows of the climate change, such as the 2010 country wide
Kabul River originating in Afghanistan could cause floods and more recently the planting of ten million
additional strains in our accident-prone ties with saplings by armed forces’ personnel on the specific
Afghanistan.18 orders of the Army Chief as a corollary of the new
government’s tree plantation campaign.
The armed forces can also contribute to the
mitigation of’ and adaptation to climate change
in Pakistan through large scale afforestation,
protection of water resources, especially the large
lakes in Sindh and Punjab, from pollution caused by
dumping of industrial, agricultural and municipal
waste; climate friendly procurement, production
and consumption practices by all defence
enterprises; mobilisation of retired personnel
for strengthening the resilience of communities
threatened by climate disasters etc.

144 Green Book 2019

Chief of the Army Staff General Qamar Javed
Bajwa initiated a nationwide plantation drive
with the objective of planting 10 million trees

Pakistan‘s Response to Climate Change The most significant climate change-related

related Challenges development is the enactment by our parliament
in 2017 of a Climate Change Act. The Act provides
The first significant initiative undertaken for a potentially robust institutional architecture
by Pakistan to address the challenges posed by for addressing climate-related risks. It envisions
climate change was the establishment, in October the establishment of a National Climate Change
2008, of a multi-stakeholder Task Force on Climate Council (NCCC), headed by the Prime Minister
Change (TFCC) under the umbrella of the Planning or a Minister nominated by him and comprising
Commission. The TFCC produced a comprehensive the Chief Ministers of provinces and key federal
report in 2010 succinctly listing the negative effects ministers.
of climate change on our key economic sectors, our
The NCCC is mandated to approve national
communities, and animal and plant species and
climate-related policies and coordinate their
suggested a number of policy measures to alleviate
them. In 2014, a National Climate Change Policy
(NCCP) was developed enumerating over a hundred
policy measures related to energy, water resources,
food production, health, disaster prevention and
management and coastal regions and the Indus
Delta. The NCCP was largely anchored in the
report of the TFCC. The Ministry of Climate Change
formulated a National Sustainable Development
Strategy (NSDS) in 2012 but failed to promote its
wide acceptance by the Federal and Provincial

Green Book 2019 145


‘‘ Pakistan has made considerable efforts to increase hydropower generation

capacity; develop renewable energy resources such as solar and wind; and promote

implementation. The Act also provides for the The adoption of Pakistan’s first ever National
formation of a National Climate Change Authority Water Policy (NWP) based on the paradigm of
(NCCA) to approve climate change programmes and Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM)
projects, particularly those submitted for funding by
the UN Green Climate Fund and other multilateral
finance windows, including the International
Finance Institutions (IFIs).The Act also calls for
the establishment of a National Climate Change
Fund for activities unlikely to receive funding
from external sources.19 The previous Government
had also decided to strengthen the Global Change
Impact Study Centre (GCISC) as the country’s
major climate-related Research and Development
(R&D) Centre. The success of Khyber Pukhtunkhwa
provincial Government’s Billion Tree Campaign is
globally acclaimed. formulated by the Federal Government and
Apart from the initiatives specifically described endorsed by all the Provincial Governments in
as being climate change-related, Pakistan has April 2018 constitutes a historic political and
made considerable efforts to increase hydropower institutional development. It is a timely initiative
generation capacity; develop renewable energy given that almost all the impacts of climate change
resources such as solar and wind; and promote would affect the supply and quality of water.
efficiency in use of economic side energy. The NWP calls for a substantial increase in
Pakistan’s environmental community has federal and provincial public sector investment in
supported all these initiatives whilst criticising projects related to fresh water resources which had
a number of large coal-based power projects, stagnated at low levels over the past several decades.
including those under the China Pakistan Economic It also calls for strengthening the institutional
Corridor (CPEC) which has increased our historically capacities of the state to conserve and develop
low coal-base power generation capacity. Since 2010, our water resources in order to forestall a looming
Pakistan has established an elaborate institutional crisis of existential nature.20 A review of Pakistan’s
infrastructure comprising disaster risk reduction climate change policy landscape calls out a number
and management authorities at the federal and of deficits and fault lines. These include lack of
provincial levels and formulated comprehensive harmony among different sectors and sectoral
disaster-related strategies and plans of action. The policies; lack of coordination and coherence between
speed of implementation of the disaster-related the federal and provincial governments; inadequate
policies has been impeded by resource constraints. financial and human resources causing delay in the

Pakistan could face

mass droughts by
2025 as water level
near ‘absolute
Rachel Roberts
The Independent 15 September 2017

Pakistan could face drought in the near future, experts have warned in a fresh report: Unicef

operationalisation of the mechanisms enshrined in

the landmark National Climate Bill; and the inability
of the Federal Ministry of Climate Change to promote
country-wide policies on climate change owing
to chronic fiscal and human resource limitations.
Pakistan has neither been able to translate its NCCP
into operational strategies and plans of action nor
forged cooperative ties with China and other friendly
countries able and evidently willing to support
its climate change initiatives. The unprecedented
emphasis laid by the newly elected Government on
environmental protection has rekindled hopes for
greater attention by the state and non-state stake
holders to climate change adaptation and mitigation.

The Way Ahead

In August 2013 the Government reconstituted Prime Minister Imran Khan inaugurating
the erstwhile Defence Committee of the Cabinet as Tree Plantation Campaign
the Cabinet Committee On National Security (CCNS)
with a mandate to “frame a national security policy”
that would focus on national security agenda with posed by climate change in South Asia, which could
the aim to formulate a National Security Policy be addressed through greater regional cooperation
which will become the guiding framework for its include: rising temperatures; extreme weather
subsidiary policies-defence Policy, foreign policy, events; glacier melting; sea level rise; infectious
internal security and other policies affecting diseases; and black carbon. The achievement of
national security. Subsequently a National Security this objective would necessitate strengthening of
Adviser was appointed and a National Security the capacities of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
Secretariat was established. However, this far no institutions entrusted to address climate change-
comprehensive national security policy has been related actions.
Pakistan’s Foreign Policy must integrate
It is recommended that the Government climate change imperatives in its core mandates
consider the development of a detailed national and functions with a view to enhancing
security policy (NSP) to guide security-related Pakistan’s contribution to the global climate
initiatives. The NSP should, inter alia, recognise change conferences and secure support from
climate change as a key factor of national security the international community for mitigation and
in view of the profound implications of this multi- adaptation efforts.
dimensional challenge on our critical economic
sectors and our quest for sustainable development Pakistan should make efforts to resuscitate the
and poverty eradication. plans of actions approved by SAARC summit and
ministerial meetings for enhanced cooperation
Such recognition will lend impetus to the in addressing climate change-related challenges,
coordinated implementation of the NCCP and help including food, energy, and health security as well
in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. Our as preventing and managing extreme events likely
defence forces should consider the formulation of a to be multiplied by climate change.
framework policy on their contributions to climate
change mitigation and adaptation as a significant
input to the formulation and implementation of Conclusion
Pakistan’s NSP. Government should make renewed The multiple adverse impacts of climate change
efforts to promote cooperation with India, China, and their undeniable implications on Pakistan’s
and Afghanistan on trans-boundary rivers and human and national security cannot be countered
other climate related issues. Common challenges by a “business as usual attitude” by the state and

‘‘ The NSP should, inter alia, recognise climate change as a key factor of national
security in view of the profound implications of this multi dimensional challenge on
our critical economic sectors and our quest for sustainable development and poverty

Green Book 2019 147


non-state stake holders. Nor is this a sectoral issue climate change informed by scientifically credible
to be handled by an inadequately resourced federal knowledge and regularly updated data guiding
and equally crippled provincial climate change efforts at local, provincial, and national levels
ministries and departments. What is urgently augmented by robust regional and international
needed is a “whole of government approach” toward cooperation.
Notes 11. Majaw, Baniateilang. Climate Change and South Asian Association for Regional
1. United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, unfccc.int,1992https:// Cooperation: a Regional Response. Volume 4, No 2, 2012 ISSN: 1309-8063
unfccc.int/ resource/docs/ convkp/conveng.pdf 12. Bodansky, Daniel. The History of the Global Climate Change Regime. 1988. http://
2. United Nations Security Council holds first-ever debate on impact of climate graduateinstitute.ch/files/live/sites/iheid/files/sites/admininst/shared/doc-
change on peace, security, hearing over 50 speakers. 17 April 2007. https:// professors/luterbacher%20chapter%202%20102.pdf
www.un.org/press/en/2007/sc9000.doc.htm> United Nations General Assembly. 13. United Nations General Assembly. Climate Change and its possible security
General Debate of the 64th Session. September 2009. https://www.un.org/ga/64/ implications. http://www.un.org. 2009. http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/resources/
generaldebate/ res_pdfs/ga-64/SGReport_on_Climate_Change_and_security.pdf
3. Kakakhel, Shafqat. Climate Change Impacts and Security Implications for 14. United Nations General Assembly resolutions on debate on Climate Change and
Pakistan.Islamabad. Institute of Strategic Studies. 2016 its possible security implications Session A/64/350
4. United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, unfccc.int, 1992 15. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. http://www.ipcc.ch. 2013-2014.
https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
5. Climate Change the IPCC Scientific Assessment. www.ipcc.ch. 1990.https://www. 16. Ghazi ,TariqWaseem.,Muniruzzaman A.N.M.,and Singh A.K.Climate Change and
ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf peace in South Asia Cooperating for peace. GMACCC Papers. 2016
6. Kyoto Protocol To The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change. 17. Task Force on Climate Change.Planning Commission of Pakistan. 2010. http://
unfccc.int. 1997. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/kpeng.pdf www.mocc.gov.pk/moclc/userfiles1/file/MOC/Publications%20on%20Env%20
7. Climate Change 2014 Synthesis report. www.ipcc.ch. 2014. https://www.ipcc.ch/ and%20CC/Reports/TFCC%20Final%20Report%2019%20Feb%202010.pdf
pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf 18. Kakakhel, Shafqat. Afghanistan-Pakistan Treaty on the Kabul River Basin?
8. Paris Agreement.unfccc.int. 2015.https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_ thethirdpole.net. 2017. https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/2017/03/02/afghanistan-
nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_english_.pdf pakistan-treaty-on-the-kabul-river-basin/
9. Ibid 19. Pakistan Climate Change Act 2017. Islamabad. http://www.na.gov.pk/uploads/
10. Hai-BinZhanga, Han-ChengDaib, Hua-XiaLaic, and Wen-TaoWang. US. documents/1491459994_555.pdf
withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Reasons, impacts, and China’s response. 20. National Water Policy 2018.Government of Pakistan.http://www.ffc.gov.pk/
Volume 8, Issue 4, December 2017, Pages 220-225. download/AFR/National%20Water%20Policy%20-April%202018%20FINAL.pdf

148 Green Book 2019


Green Book 2019 149



150 Green Book 2019


The increasing reliance on Information and Communication
Technology (ICT) for routine tasks has intensified the sophistication
and frequency of cyber-attacks manifolds. Apart from data leakage,
financial losses and disruption of normal functioning of the digital
Brigadier Dr Abdul Rauf is serving in infrastructure, cyber-attacks can also pose a pernicious threat to the
Pakistan Army national security, stability, economic vitality and public health. It is
for this reason that cyberspace is believed to be the fifth dimension of
military war, after air, water, land and space.1 Many countries across
the world have also accepted cyber-attacks as a top national security
threat and therefore the development of defensive and offensive
cyber capabilities is fostered to cope up with this growing cyber peril.
Pakistan, unfortunately, is busy in fighting an aggressive war against
terrorism along with dilemmas of poverty, illiteracy, corruption etc
Owing to this, cybersecurity has not been considered as an integral
element of the National Security Policy of Pakistan. However, few
initiatives have been taken at national and organisational level to
Brigadier Dr Ashraf Masood, (Retired) curb cyber menace and build cybersecurity capacity in Pakistan. In
is an Adjunct Faculty member at the an endeavour to improve the security of the national cyberspace,
Department of Information Security,
Military College of Signals (MCS-NUST),
this document highlights the existing and emerging threats posed
Rawalpindi to Pakistan’s cyberspace. The comparative analysis of contemporary
National Cybersecurity Strategies of leading countries has also
been carried out, based on which recommendations are provided to
improve national cyberspace security. This will ultimately guarantee
national security from evolving cyber-attacks.

Keywords: Cybersecurity, Pakistan’s Cyberspace, Threat Landscape,

National Security, Cyber-attacks

Ms Narmeen Shafqat is Lecturer at the

Department of Information Security,
Military College of Signals (MCS-NUST),

Green Book 2019 151


he concept of National Security was

originally confined to the military
security or protection of country’s
sovereignty against external military
agents. However, with time, it has evolved
to include some non-military aspects like
human security, energy security, economic stability,
cybersecurity, environmental security, freedom from
political coercion etc
Like Information and Communication
Technology (ICT) has revolutionised all sectors
(including finance, telecom, academia, energy,
transport, government etc), nation-states have
also employed ICT for the development of smart
weapons, intelligence monitoring, data mining,
emergency operations etc2 to enhance national
security and public safety. However, this increasing
reliance on Internet and ICT and the simultaneous
increase in frequency of cyber-attacks, have now
made cybersecurity one of the most crucial aspect
of national security.
In layman's terms, cybersecurity is referred to
as the protection of IT systems from damage, the
resident information from unauthorised access or
modification and the network and e-services from
being disrupted by the cyber-offenders.
Thus, any deliberate exploitation of ICT
systems, applications, e-services or network to
gain unauthorised access, expose or alter data,
disrupt online services etc, fall under the category
of cyber-attack.
Countries should therefore assume their
responsibility for securing the fraction of the digital
domain that they operate in, also referred to as the
national cyberspace.

Effects of Cyber Attacks on National Security

The Global Attack Timeline shown here depicts
that the frequency of cyber-attacks has drastically
increased over the recent years with attacks
becoming deadly than ever. Today, cyber-attacks
occur after every 39 seconds; sometimes causing
breach of integrity, confidentiality and availability
of data, and other times incurring heavy financial

‘‘ Increasing reliance on Internet and

ICT and the simultaneous increase in
frequency of cyber-attacks, have now
made cybersecurity one of the most ‘‘
crucial aspect of national security

152 Green Book 2019


‘‘ In layman's terms, Cybersecurity Cyber-attacks have even caused explosions in

a furnace at German Steel Mill and a pipeline in
is referred to as the protection of IT
Iranian Petro-chemical company in 2014 and 2016
systems from damage, the resident respectively.
information from unauthorised access
or modification and the network and
e-services from being disrupted by the

According to Symantec’s Internet Security

Threat Report, as more and more devices get
connected, the average cost of a data breach will go
beyond $150 million by year 2020.3
Few notorious cyber-attacks of the past have
also raised extreme concerns about national
security as well. The unprecedented wave of
powerful attacks that hit national websites and IT
systems of Estonia in 2007, exposed sensitive data
and rendered many IT systems useless. Few years
later, the Iranian Nuclear Facility was struck by
“Stuxnet” attack. This attack utilised a specially
crafted worm to infiltrate numerous computers in
the facility and destroyed one-fifth of the nuclear
centrifuges. The Stuxnet attack, if not stopped
timely, could have wreaked havoc in Iran.4

Stuxnet destroyed one-fifth of Iran's

Nuclear Centrifuges
Explosion in Gas Pipeline of Marun Oil and Gas
Production Company, Iran in July 2016 is believed
to have been caused by cyber-attack.7

These explosions caused by cyber-attacks are

a threat to human lives as well. It is believed that
the loss incurred by organised cyber-attacks can
even exceed the loss caused by a natural calamity
Also, a Saudi Energy Company “Aramco” was
or physical terrorism.8
hit by the “Disttrack Wiper” Malware in 2016.
It damaged around 30,000 computers and also
caused two weeks of system unavailability in the “Sophisticated and virtually untraceable
company.5 With the passage of time, cyber-attacks political ‘hacktivists’ may now possess the
grew more and more powerful. ability to disrupt or destroy government
Furnace at a German Steel Mill blown up by operations, banking transactions, city power
cyber-attack. 6 grids, and even military weapon system’’.

Stephan Herzog, Security Expert

In the worst scenario, cyber-attacks can also
trigger inadvertent cyber wars between nations
or groups. Hence, national security necessitates
effective security of the national cyberspace.

Green Book 2019 153


Amid cyber-attacks, countries across the world Edward Snowden, NSA Whistleblower
have made cybersecurity an important constituent
Despite escalating cyber risks to the national
of their National Security Strategies. More than 50
cyberspace, Pakistan has not paid heed to this
countries, including USA, UK, Singapore, Estonia
critical issue of cybersecurity. According to the
etc, have even formulated detailed National Cyber
Guardian’s report, Edward Snowden claimed that
Security Strategies (NCSS) and have allocated
Pakistan is the second most spied over country by
massive budgets for national cybersecurity
In a report published by Microsoft in year 2015,11
Pakistan was reported to be the most malicious
country of the world. Despite these revelations,
Pakistan still has no National Cybersecurity
Paralysis of IT Panic / Cyber Strategy, Cyber Regulatory Framework or dedicated
Systems Terrorism government organisation responsible for securing
the national cyberspace. With regard to the
government’s commitment and dedication to
cybersecurity, the Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI)
ranks Pakistan at 67th position, as opposed to India
Effects of
Inadvertent Collapse of at 23rd position.12 If cybersecurity is taken for granted
Cyber Attacks
Cyber Wars Critical for long, Pakistan may suffer deleterious security
on National
Security e-services breaches, incidents involving cyber vandalism,
massive financial losses and in the worst case,
physical damage to IT infrastructure or casualties
as well.
Loss of Critical Massive
Information Financial Emerging Cyber Threats to Pakistan
The cheap access to Internet and increased
utilisation of smart-phones in Pakistan have increased
the usage of Internet in daily affairs, e-banking,
Edward Snowden, a popular whistleblower e-commerce, academia etc, in the past couple of
revealed in year 2013 that National Security Agency years. According to Pakistan Telecommunication
(NSA, USA) is carrying out extensive surveillance Authority (PTA), Pakistan has around 47.5 million
of information infrastructure world wide.9 This internet users (nearly 22% internet penetration rate).
revelation triggered the establishment of cyber-
capability and development of secure indigenous
IT products in many countries.
Edward Snowden, NSA

Out of these Internet users (also called as

netizens), 35 million people actively use social
networking websites and applications like
Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, WhatsApp etc13 This
has made the diameter of potential cyber threat
scenario more sophisticated and complex than
ever before.

‘‘ More than 50 countries, including USA, UK, Singapore, Estonia etc, have even
formulated detailed National Cybersecurity Strategies (NCSS) and have allocated
massive budgets for National Cybersecurity Initiatives

154 Green Book 2019


‘‘ Owing to the lack of cyber- has become a lucrative target for cyber-adversaries.
Researchers consider Pakistan’s thriving IT sector
awareness amongst the masses and and the recently introduced 3G/4G networks as the
technical malpractices, Pakistan has major future hotbeds for cyber-attacks in Pakistan.
become a lucrative target for cyber-
adversaries. Researchers consider Digital Snapshot - Pakistan (2018)
Pakistan’s thriving IT sector and the
recently introduced 3G/4G networks
as the major future hotbeds for cyber-
attacks in Pakistan

Internet Stats of Pakistan, 201814

In the early twentieth century, the cyber risks
posed to the national cyberspace of Pakistan were Population Internet Users Social Media Users
only confined to website defacements and small- 210 Million 47.5 Million 32 Million
scale hacking and intruding attempts carried out
via malware infections. However, as the cyber- Other cyber-attacks targeting Pakistan are
attacks acquired momentum, the attack trend likely to evolve from following domains in the near
shifted to spamming (junk emails), phishing future:
(lure victim to disclose sensitive information) and ── The increased usage of social technology/
botnets (army of compromised devices) in 2005. networking apps will increase possibilities of
Eventually the trend moved to Advanced abuse, misuse, data theft and identity theft.
Persistent Threats (APTs i.e. powerful stealth
── The existence of cryptocurrency miners
attacks) in 2010. Later in 2015, the attacks on
cryptographic keys and digital certificates were (compromising victim PC to use it for running
increased. Currently, cyber espionage attacks crypto-mining script) and social bots (bots
carried out by foreign intelligence agencies are on controlling social networking accounts) are
the rise.15 likely to emerge as well.
Owing to the lack of cyber-awareness amongst ── The usage of mobile computing platforms for
the masses and technical malpractices, Pakistan carrying out regular financial transactions


Social Technology
Mobile Computing
2010 Critical Infrastructure
Worms, Backdoor, Cloud Computing
Website Attacks IoT Networks
Trust Infrastructures
2000 Big Data
Worms, Backdoor,
Website Attacks

Attacks on crypto
keys & certi cates
Botnets, Spams,
Phishing, Session
< 2000
Viruses, Password

and weak Bring Your Own Device (BYOD) ransomwares and Artificial Intelligence
policies at work-environment will increase (AI) powered attack tools to compromise IT
cross-platform attacks using botnets, drive-by systems in Pakistan.
exploits, malware, phishing etc. ── The growing global trend of ransomwares like
── Critical Information Infrastructures of WannaCry, Not Petya etc will be a matter of
Internet Service Providers (ISPs), Internet great concern for Pakistan as well.
Exchange Points etc will be the focused target
of cyber-attacks in near future, since the Cyber Threat Landscape of Pakistan
effect on cyber-attacks here can be incredibly
Cyber Threat Landscape of any country is
referred to as the cyber-attack vectors (attack
── The growing trend of Cloud Computing methods) and the cyber threat agents (adversaries)
and Internet of Things (IoT) in Pakistan that harm the national cyberspace.16
is giving rise to a wave of attacks as well. Since the cyber activities go unchecked in
Cloud computing involves a shared pool of Pakistan, the rate of cyber-crimes has dramatically
computing resources for data storage etc, and increased in the recent years. This necessitates
hence cyber-attack on one party may affect thorough understanding of the threat landscape of
other as well. The idea of Internet of Things Pakistan in order to recommend effective measures
(IoT) is to connect everyday computing to defend the national cyberspace.
devices e.g. TV, washing machine, lights etc
with the Internet which ultimately increases
the attack surface as well.
Cyber Attack Vectors
The cyber-perpetrators targeting Pakistan’s
── Trust Infrastructures (i.e. ICT systems
providing authentication services to establish cyberspace generally make use of malware
secure communication) are also on risk. infections, especially Trojans and worms. These
Thus, drive-by exploits, spear phishing, malwares help the attacker acquire unauthorised
APTs, ineffective security controls etc, will be access to victim’s computer, gather sensitive
a matter of high concern in future. information or disrupt normal operations of the IT
── The growing trend of big data has also opened As already stated, the Microsoft’s Security
wide doors for crimes like data theft and Intelligence Report (Vol-19, 2015) highlights
Pakistan as the most compromised country in the
── Researchers believe that hackers will make world with malware encounter rate (ER) of 45.1%,
increased use of sandbox-evading malwares, as opposed to world’s rate of 14.8%.17

Trends for the five locations with the highest encounter rates in 2015 (100,000 reporting computers minimum)

Encounter rate (percent of all reporting computers)

60% Palestinian
50% Nepal



20% Worldwide


1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

Pakistan with highest Malware ER (Microsoft Intelligence Report v. 19)18

156 Green Book 2019


Unfortunately, the malware encounter rate of
Pakistan has continued to stay in the list of top five Anti-Pakistan hackers frequently
compromised countries of the world and it does deface websites of government
not seem to reduce, until all netizens adopt secure organisations, military etc, with
cyber practices.
racist, blasphemous, vulgar, politically
subversive, or slanderous content,
followed by actions like data theft,
40 data manipulation
20 Today, cyber-criminals have made Electronic
Forgery of mark sheets, certificates, currency
World rate notes, revenue stamps, etc a lucrative business.
The increasing trend of Intellectual Property
Crimes related to software piracy, infringement of
2014 2015 2016 2017
Pakistan with highest Malware ER NBP E-Theft: Loss Rs 14 M
(Results gathered from Microsoft Intelligence Report v. 19 to v22)19 Burj Bank (2012): DB leaked
FBISE (2007): Result Leaked
1 day before
NTC Server compromised
(2010): 40 Government sites
Apart from malware infections, cyber-stalking hacked
is also a pervasive cyber nuisance in Pakistan. 2013
Around 80% of the cyber complaints reported to HEC:48k users DB leaked
HBL: Employee DB leaked
National Response Centre for Cyber Crime (NR3C) PKNIC: 23k accounts leaked
PIA: E- Tickets of $7M stolen
last year pertained to cyber-stalking of female NADRA E.Sahulat: DB leaked
community on Facebook/Twitter.20 This is often
2014 - 15
followed by incidents of cyber harassment or cyber- Warid: Customer DB leaked
bullying, where private pictures or conversations OpPakistani: 10 Government
are leaked, and the victim is blackmailed. Mostly, sites hacked, 23k bank records
Spam and Phishing Emails carrying malicious 2016
attachment or drive-by-download un-wittingly CTB Locker Ransomware:
download malwares on victim’s system and help locked a Government site,
loss of Rs 0.5 M
the attacker comprise it easily.
2017 - 18
Moreover, anti-Pakistan hackers frequently HBL ATM Hacking: loss 10M,
deface websites of government organisations, 579 customers affected
WannaCry Ransomware:
military etc, with racist, blasphemous, vulgar, State Life Insurance, Shaukat
politically subversive, or slanderous content, Khanum Hospital etc affected
followed by actions like data theft, data Careem Data Leak: Details of
0.5 M Pakistanis exposed
manipulation, etc Unfortunately, the websites
of PTA, Ministry of Railways, Supreme Court, Notorious Cyber-Attacks
Establishment Division etc have been hacked more (less website defacements)
than once, but are still insecure. The forthcoming
cyber-attacks timeline depicts that there have been copyrights, trademarks violations, etc, have also
some security breaches in the history of Pakistan, incurred huge financial losses to victims. Lastly,
that have exposed sensitive details of thousands of tides of Cyber Warfare and Cyber Terrorism also
netizens and incurred financial losses as well. present a horrid threat to the national cyberspace
To add further, Dissemination of Offensive of Pakistan.
Material like sexually explicit content, racist
propaganda etc on social media is also causing Cyber Threat Agents
nuisance in Pakistan’s cyberspace. The Illegal
Usage of cyberspace by terrorists and Interception Threat Agent embodies all entities that can
of VoIP Gateways for international calling are also cause, spread, or support a cyber-threat/crime.
currently a menace. Amongst these, the Indian state-sponsored hackers

Green Book 2019 157


Homepage of NR3C, FIA21

are the most active adversary, Various Cyber future. The government should, therefore, adopt a
Hacktivists (hackers with political agenda) also pragmatic approach for reducing the cyber-attack
frequently deface government websites as protest surface; else national security will be at risk as well.
against electricity load-shedding, high internet
charges etc. Similarly, cyber espionage attempts Cybersecurity Initiatives taken in Pakistan
conducted by Foreign Intelligence Agencies in
Since cybersecurity is not a matter of utmost
search of information on sensitive domestic data,
importance for Pakistan, no National Cybersecurity
nuclear programmes, trade secrets etc, are also
Coordinating Body has ever been created.
very alarming.
NR3C working under Federal Investigation
Since cyber crime legislation, “Prevention of
Agency (FIA) is addressing cyber-crimes in
Electronic Crime Act 2016”, is not strictly enforced
the country. Also, the National Telecom and
in the country, therefore cyber-offenders are free
Information Technology Security Board (NTISB), a
to commit cybercrimes. The insiders/employees
wing of Cabinet Division has been made responsible
often misuse their privileges and exfiltrate sensitive
for advising government on cybersecurity Issues
information from companies’ computers. Similarly,
and carrying out security assessment of IT products
competitors are in a continuous struggle to get
to be used in government organisations.
competitive advantage over their rivals through
offensive tactics e.g. hacking, electronic vandalism,
social engineering intelligence etc. Moreover, Cyber Laws
Scammers, APT Agents, script kiddies, crackers In the absence of any dedicated Cybersecurity
and Cyber Jihadis (particularly Al-Qaeda) are also Strategy, the Government of Pakistan has
harming the national cyberspace by regularly extended the applicability of various computer and
launching cyber-attacks. internet related laws to govern and regulate the
Since the use of IT is not widespread in national Cyberspace.22 The Section 54 of Pakistan
Pakistan, therefore the rate of cybercrimes is Telecommunications (Re-organisation) Act 1996
significantly lower than in the first-world countries. and Surveillance 101/ Fair Trial Act 2013 allow state
However, the absence of cyber accountability and and military to conduct online surveillance in “the
prevalence of cyber malpractices are likely to interest of national security”. The National IT Policy
increase the cybercrimes beyond bounds in near and Action Plan issued in 2000 partially dealt with

158 Green Book 2019


child online safety, provided minimum encryption regularly evaluate online content. Since then,
standards, encouraged digital signatures and blasphemous sites, pornographic material and
setting up of a local mail exchange. anti-state links are regularly blocked.24
Moreover, the e-commerce and e-banking
industry of Pakistan abide by the Electronic Incident Management Capabilities
Transaction Ordinance (ETO-2002) and Payment To deter national cyber-attacks, Computer
Systems and Electronic Fund Transfer Act 2007. Emergency Response Team (CERT) like Pak CERT
The electronic and broadcast media are regulated (2001), Pisa CERT (2009), and NUST CERT (2013)
in Pakistan through the Pakistan Electronic were established at national, private and academic
Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA Ordinance levels. However, none of them is operational now.
2002, 2007). Furthermore, Laws for Child Online Currently, cyber-crimes are reported to NR3C
Protection are enacted through Section 293 of through online portal and cyber hotline. The
Pakistan Penal Code, while online cases of slander, respective forensic investigations are carried out
libel and blasphemy are dealt with The Defamation by the Punjab Forensic Science Agency and Digital
Ordinance (2002, 2004) and Sections 295 and 298 of Forensics Science Laboratory.25
Pakistan Penal Code.
National Cybersecurity Awareness Initiatives
Cybercrime Legislation
Government organisations, including State
In the past, cyber-criminals were penalised Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Securities and Exchange
through legislations like Electronic Crimes Act 2004 Commission of Pakistan (SECP), PTA, NTISB etc,
and Prevention of Electronic Crimes Ordinance have issued Cybersecurity Guidelines for creating
(PECO 2007 and 2009). Today cyber-crimes are dealt cyber-awareness amongst their employees and
under Prevention of Electronic Crime Act (PECA, regularly trains them in the field of Information
2016). Security (IS) as well. Public and private sectors
PECA provides penalties for almost all major organisations (particularly NR3C and PISA)
electronic crimes, cyber terrorism and cases of and Civil Protection Agencies, have organised
child pornography. However, it has not been Awareness Seminars and campaigns to raise
strictly enforced as yet, owing to the unavailability cyber-awareness amongst the masses.26 Academic
of pertinent investigation infrastructure and lack of institutes also play their part by organising
training of judges on various cyber laws. cybersecurity conferences on annual or bi-annual
Apart from these IT laws, the government Cybersecurity Manpower Development
has also issued several e-regulations23 like Net Currently, no cybersecurity education is
Café Regulation, Retention of Internet logs (for provided in schools and colleges of Pakistan. At
record), Monitoring of Voice over Internet Protocol undergraduate level, few institutions like NUST
(VoIP 2009, 2013), Protection from Spam and and COMSATS are already offering specialised IS
obnoxious communication (2009), SMS Filtering subjects (e.g. Digital Forensics, Network Security
(2011), Internet & E-Mail Policy for Government etc) as part of few BE degrees (e.g. Software
Departments (2009, 2011) etc Also, an Inter- Engineering, Computer Science etc). However,
Ministerial Committee was formed in 2006 to Air University and UET Taxila will be the first to

Cyber Secure Pakistan (CSP) Awareness Seminar (February 2018)

Green Book 2019 159


introduce Cybersecurity Degree Programmes at IS Service and Certification Providers

undergraduate level this year.
Few public and private sector organisations
MS/PhD programmes in cybersecurity are of Pakistan including Ebryx, Trillium, Tranchulas,
currently offered in several academic institutes in Security Experts, i2C, MTBC, TransICT etc are
twin cities like NUST, Riphah University, COMSATS, already providing IS services (cyber risk mitigation,
CASE, Air University etc NR3C has also started vulnerability assessment, forensic analysis,
Cybersecurity Scouts Initiative to train students security audit etc) and consultancy to few national
in order to combat cyber-crimes at the grass-root as well as international organisations.29
To build cyber capacity, NIMIS, MCS- National and International Collaborations for
NUST, Riphah University, NR3C and Institute Cybersecurity
of Cybersecurity (ICS) conducts Cybersecurity
Training Programmes for students and Pakistan has no government-approved venture
professionals on regular basis. Cybersecurity or framework for the exchange of cybersecurity
Research Centres particularly Pakistan Research assets (people, processes, tools) with the national
Center for Cyber Security (PRCCS), Centre for or international community. However, there exists
Network-Centric Technologies (CENTech) etc have a collaborative project, PISA R3C that promotes
been established to promote development and public-private partnerships (PPP) to enhance
usage of secure indigenous IT products in Pakistan. national cyber skillset and resources. With regard
Fortunately, CENTech has been successful in to International Cooperation, Pakistan has
certifying Pakistan’s first ever crypto module collaboration with ITU-IMPACT, Digital Crimes
“Tahir Pak Crypto Library” (TPCL) from Federal Consortium of USA, ICANN, G8 High Tech Crime
Information Processing Standards (FIPS).28 Network (HTCN) etc and Global CERTs like APSIRC-
Recently, National Centre for Cyber Security WG and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation
(NCCS) has been established in Pakistan to (OIC-CERT).30 For a country like Pakistan, having
conduct Research and Development (R&D) on IoT netizens amounting up to 47.5 million and potent
security, Block chain, Quantum Technology, Deep cyber enemies, there is a dire need to secure
Packet Inspection (DPI), development of secure the cyberspace to ensure that communication,
indigenous IT products, protection of critical e-commerce and other electronic services run
infrastructure, etc. smoothly and efficiently.

160 Green Book 2019


Timeline of Leading National Cyber Security Strategies

Version of NCSS

USA Canada, Estonia Germany UK

USA Canada, France, Austria, UAE Singapore
Estonia, Germany, India,
Finland New Zealand Japan,
UK Saudi Arabia

2001... 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

The measures taken so far show a positive trend creation of secure/resilient cyberspace, security of
for introducing cybersecurity in the country but critical cyber assets, formulation of cybersecurity
are inadequate compared to the drastic increase legislative framework, raising cyber-awareness,
in state-sponsored cyber-attacks happening these develop indigenous IT products, establish CERTs,
days. promote public-private/international partnerships
etc However, despite similar objectives, the
Cybersecurity Strategies in Contemporary country’s varying cyber threat landscape, level of
Countries cyber-consciousness, socio-political conditions,
etc34 have brought significant variations in the
Today, more than fifty countries have preventive, defensive and offensive approaches
formulated National Cyber Security Strategies adopted by each country.35
(NCSS)31 and regard cyber-attacks as a top-tier
national security threat. In the recent Cybersecurity Diverse Understanding of Key Terms
Ranking Document issued by ITU,32 NCSS of
Owing to the absence of globally harmonised
Canada, Estonia, France, Finland, Germany,
definitions, countries have self-defined key terms
New Zealand, Singapore, UK and USA have been
like cybersecurity, cyberspace, cybercrimes etc
particularly acknowledged. Owing to continuously For instance, scanning/probing is considered an
changing threat spectrum, countries, especially UK, offence in Germany, but not in USA.36
USA, Estonia etc, have even published subsequent
The definition of cyberspace also varies across
versions of their NCCS.
the countries. For instance, Australia, Spain,
Germany, Canada, New Zealand etc perceive
Objectives stated in NCSS cyberspace as a network of all ICT devices connected
NCSS defines action plan of a country for with Internet only.37 However, USA, UK, France,
addressing the national cybersecurity challenges. Turkey etc also include all other virtual/physical
Most NCSS share common goals33 such as the ICT devices in their definition of cyberspace. These

‘‘ The definition of cyberspace also varies across the countries. For instance,
Australia, Spain, Germany, Canada, New Zealand etc perceive cyberspace as a
network of all ICT devices connected with internet only. However, USA, UK, France,
Turkey etc also include all other virtual/ physical ICT devices in their definition of

Green Book 2019 161


varying perceptions of cybersecurity make it hard to To create cyber-consciousness
adopt a holistic approach for addressing cyber issues
worldwide.38 amongst the masses, UK, Malaysia and
Australia run national programmes
Lead Responsible Authority for Cybersecurity like “Get Safe Online”, “Cyber Safe”, ‘‘
Majority of the countries including Canada, “Stay Safe Online” respectively
India, Malaysia, Turkey, Austria, Spain, Germany
etc have given the responsibility of cybersecurity
to one of their existing ministries (IT, Interior, Law
or Defence). However, Estonia and France, have R&D on Cybersecurity
created new coordinating bodies, which centrally
deal with cyber-threats and attacks.39 To prevent the inherent vulnerabilities of IT
products being exploited by adversaries, almost all
Security Incident Management countries have established national R&D centres to
develop secure indigenous IT products and sponsor
103 countries all over the world provide pertinent industrial/academic projects.
incident management capabilities at national level
through CERTs. However, the goals and efficacy of Cybersecurity Cooperation
these CERTs vary considerably, owing to varying
expertise of incident handlers, inadequate funds, The NCSSs of Canada, Australia, UK, Saudi
and the cyber threat landscape of the country.40 Arab and Netherlands have specifically emphasised
upon effective incessant interstate collaboration
Cybersecurity Capacity Building with telecom vendors/operators and private
sector organisations who own most of the internet
To increase cyber-workforce, all NCSS promote infrastructure. On similar lines, the NCSS of Australia,
research and education in cybersecurity and Germany, UK and USA have also mentioned action-
emphasise on the need for security certifications/ plans to improve global cooperation.43
trainings for IT professionals.
Cyber-Awareness Campaign conducted in USA NCSS Evaluation Framework
Every October42 Most countries have mentioned review
frameworks in NCSS to frequently evaluate the
progress of NCSS after certain years and revise it
accordingly. Other NCSSs have provided review
mechanisms as a separate act. In reality, very few
countries have practically endeavoured to achieve
the stated objectives and have, therefore, updated
the first version of NCSS.

Analysis and Discussion

Amid exponentially increasing cyber-attacks,
cybersecurity has become the highest national
priority worldwide. Countries today understand
cyber-attacks can cause data leakage, massive
financial loss, business interruption, physical
damage etc and can thus affect national security as
well. However, Pakistan has always shown apathy
over this grave issue of cybersecurity. The past
Governments being oblivious to the deleterious
impacts of security breaches too believed that since
To create cyber-consciousness amongst the Pakistan is lagging in the race of technology, the
masses, UK, Malaysia and Australia run national existing security controls are adequate to secure
programmes like “Get Safe Online”, “Cyber Safe”, the national cyberspace.
“Stay Safe Online” respectively. Today, cyber unconsciousness amongst the
US and Austria have gone one step ahead internet users and the uncertain cyber regulatory
by annually observing “Cybersecurity Month”.41 environment have made Pakistan’s cyberspace an
Netherlands and Turkey in their NCSS have also ideal arena for various cyber offences.
emphasised on making cybersecurity part of all Cyber malpractices particularly usage of
academic curriculums. obsolete Windows XP and Win7 by 20% computer

162 Green Book 2019


users,44 downloading movies/cracked software access to terrorists and anti-state agents and their
from Torrent, usage of proxies to circumvent continuous struggle to harm the national security
blocked content, keeping easy passwords, necessitates an urgency to deploy a powerful
allowing browser to remember credentials, content filtering system at the Internet and telecom
ignoring Software Privacy Policies, not updating exchanges.
software/ tools frequently etc, have made Pakistan
However, owing to the nagging fear that
the most compromised country of the world.
politicians will use nationalism and religion as
Microsoft Intelligence Report v22 reveals that 84%
of the computer users in Pakistan do not even use a blanket for justifying the personal vendetta
antivirus solutions,45 the Chinese companies such through internet surveillance and censorship,
as Huawei, Lenovo and ZTE Corporations that the idea of deploying content filtering system has
have been blacklisted by western governments always been met with massive uproar from media,
for the inherent vulnerabilities in their products/ vehement online campaigns by civil societies and
infrastructure are surprisingly in use by most of ubiquitous condemnation in the form of street
the telecom companies of Pakistan. Had there agitation.
been any severe security breach accompanied by The terrorists are hence still free to
heavy financial loss to the state in the past or any communicate in the national cyberspace of
major incident compromising national security, the Pakistan which is an absolute horrid threat to both;
government would not have taken cybersecurity for cyberspace security as well as national security.
granted. The basic solution to all the problems is the
implementation of a well-defined cybersecurity
Are Current IT Laws and E-Regulations governance, legislative and regulatory framework,
adequate to address Issues of Cybersecurity as discussed in detail under “Recommendations”
and National Security? section.
As already discussed, the government has
extended the applicability of IT laws to address Impact of National Cybersecurity Capacity
major cybersecurity Issues. However, these laws Building Measures undertaken in Past
only deal with the confidentiality, availability
As elaborated before, few public and private
and integrity of the data and ignore aspects of
sector organisations, especially PISA, NR3C, etc,
authentication and non-repudiation, and the
have often endeavoured to hold Cybersecurity
emerging cyber risks. Moreover, despite the fact
Workshops, awareness seminars and training
that our cyber threat landscape is unique to us.
Law-makers need to understand that ineffective or sessions in major cities of Pakistan. However,
irrelevant laws will not secure the cyberspace and being technical in nature, their efforts could not
all efforts to strengthen the national security will make much impact for the regular computer users.
still be in vain. Also, cybersecurity guidelines issued by certain
organisations for their employees and customers
Private and Civil agencies have often
was a good step for promoting cybersecurity
endeavoured to provide a draft of NCSS to
culture, but owing to the weak enforcement
government, however, these have been turned
mechanisms, the guidelines have always been
down on political grounds, despite negligible
bluntly ignored.
shortcomings. Weak enforcement mechanisms
owing to shortage of acceptance of Presidential Moreover, the lack of expertise, budget and
Ordinance (i.e. six weeks from the date of its accountability have exacerbated the capabilities
promulgation) is another reason why  no cyber of the existing law enforcement agencies to handle
draft has ever reached the implementation phase. cybercrimes. FIA, for instance, does not have the
Even if a law is promulgated (e.g. PECA 2016), it is required human resource and capacity to deal with
not strictly enforced, nor updated after a certain cybercrimes executed by hackers through freely
period of time. It is because of this uncertain cyber available proxies, such as TOR.46 The ‘PakCERT’
regulatory environment in the country that many and “PISACERT” established with the aim of
international companies, especially E-bay, PayPal, bolstering incident management capabilities, are
Amazon etc, are not willing to provide e-commerce also not operational owing to lack of budget and
services in Pakistan. The unsupervised internet expertise.

‘‘ Today, cyber unconsciousness amongst the internet users and the uncertain cyber
regulatory environment have made Pakistan’s cyberspace an ideal arena for various
cyber offences

Green Book 2019 163


Cyber education is not provided up to Once the framework is ready, a National Cyber
undergraduate level in Pakistan. The MS/PhD Security Council (NCSC), a supervisory body to
programmes being offered in Pakistan are confined address national cybersecurity issues, and oversee
to twin cities i.e. Islamabad and Rawalpindi only. In planning, implementation and evaluation of
order to build its own cyber-army, there is a dire need cybersecurity initiatives shall be established. For
to make cyber education ubiquitous nationwide. effective operation, NCSC can be divided into five
With a strong cyber-workforce, Pakistan can major divisions. The National Cybersecurity Policy
definitely defend its national cyberspace and Division and Cyber Crime Division can formulate
ultimately enhance national security too. cyber laws (especially NCSS) and apprehend cyber-
criminals while the technical counterparts i.e.
Recommendations National Cybersecurity Capacity Building Division
and the Cyber Incident Management Division
A country lacking cyberspace security offers shall endeavour to increase cyber-workforce of
an attractive target for cyber-perpetrators, and Pakistan and improve cyber-attack detection
hence pose threat to its national security as well. and responsiveness respectively. Lastly, National
Like other countries, Government of Pakistan Cybersecurity Advisory Body comprising of
should, therefore, consider cybersecurity as its top- separate technical, operational, policy and industry
tier national priority. Accordingly, cybersecurity groups, shall put forward their consolidated
should be treated as the shared responsibility of recommendations on the performance of the other
everyone within the cyberspace and significant four divisions of NCSC.
national budget should be allocated for developing
and implementing cybersecurity capabilities at the
national level. Till the time an effective cybercrime
legislation is prepared, existing legislation i.e. r icy C
C yb
PECA 2016 should be strictly enforced in the country ybe Pol Di rim er
C ity on vis e
in order to create effective cyber deterrence. i
c ur ivis ion
Next, the Government should form an interim Se D
team comprising of one member from each; Ministry
of Information Technology (MoIT), Ministry of National
Interior (MoI), Ministry of Defence (MoD), Ministry Cybersecurity
of Education and Research, Ministry of Law & Cyber Council Cyber
Justice, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Foreign