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Assessment 1 – Analytical Exercise Report – (80 pts) 30%

CLO3: Evaluate historical examples of intelligence success and failures, by analyzing the
origins, framework, and common theoretical elements in case studies with particular
emphasis on strategic surprise, forecasting, CT intelligence;

IMINT Exercise BRAVO

BRILLIANT FALCON - 19
For your first assessment you will follow on from the in-class imagery analysis exercise.
Following the UAV overflight, we sent a reconnaissance aircraft to capture some low-level
reconnaissance photos of the coast. We are looking for evidence that the enemy are installing
MRBMs (medium range ballistic missiles) with nuclear capability on the island. These are
capable of striking the UAE within minutes of launch. Please review yesterday’s photos and
provide an analysis and any evidence of nuclear missile related equipment. We will need you to
use “crateology” (measurements and comparison of crates) to make a determination as to what
is being shipped into the port. We have provided you with a key to help you analyze the
photographs.
Both photos are of two different ships inbound to the port. Based on initial analysis, it seems
that some large crates are aboard. The size and shape indicates that they could contain either
the MRBM SS4, Komar-Class guided missile patrol boats (or missile launchers), nuclear warhead
vans, or Ilyushin IL-28 (NATO Code Name: BEAGLE) Bomber fuselages.
We have provided roughly scaled photos of these items for you to issue your best estimate
(according to size and shape) of what is contained in these crates.
At the end of the assignment is an intelligence target pack template for you to use as well as
questions you must respond to. The Electronic Target Pack Template will be uploaded to
Moodle for you to download and complete.

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Assessment 1 Grading Rubric – 80 pts

All intelligence analysis projects are graded based on US ODNI ICD-203

Analytic Tradecraft Standards

Points 1-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 9-10

Properly describes quality and credibility
1 of underlying sources, data and
methodologies

Properly expresses and explains

2 uncertainties associated with major
analytic judgments

Properly distinguishes between underlying

3 intelligence information and analysts'
assumptions and judgments

4 Incorporates analysis of alternatives

Demonstrates customer relevance and

5
addresses implications

6 Uses clear and logical argumentation

7 Follows Directions

8 Properly edited and spellchecked

Total

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TO: TASK FORCE CHIEF

FROM: RABDAN TEAM
RE: Low Level Reconnaissance Photos
Reference Key

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Photo 1

Vessel Length: 233 feet

Vessel Beam (width): 32 feet

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Photo 2

Vessel Length: 233 feet

Vessel Beam (width): 32 feet

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Summary of Findings – Enter into Template

PHOTO #1:
Is it likely that the MRBM missiles are inside the crates? Why or why not?

Is it likely that Komar Guided Missile boats are inside the crates? Why or why not?

Is it likely that the Soviet nuclear warhead vans are inside the crates? Why or why not?

Is it likely that the IL-28 fuselages are inside the crates? Why or why not?

Photo #1
We have determined that the following item(s) might be contained in the crates:
_______________________________________________________.

PHOTO #2
Is it likely that the MRBM missiles are inside the crates? Why or why not?

Is it likely that Komar Guided Missile boats are inside the crates? Why or why not?

Is it likely that the Soviet nuclear warhead vans are inside the crates? Why or why not?

Is it likely that the IL-28 fuselages are inside the crates? Why or why not?

Photo #2
We have determined that the following item(s) might be contained in the crates:
_______________________________________________________.

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