IINPG Academia Series

f orgotten f undamentals
of the
Energy Crisis
by Dr. Albert A. Bartlett

Negative Population Growth, Inc.

April 1998
Forgotten Fundamentals 1�( the Energy Crisis Page J

REFLECTIONS IN 1998 ON THE TWENTIETH ANNIVERSARY

OF THE PUBLICATION OF THE PAPER:
"FORGOTTEN FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ENERGY CRISIS"
Albert A. Bartlcu
Deparunent o!' Physics, University of Colorado

Negutiv« Population Growth is indeed privileged to he ah/e to reprint ·· Forgotten Fu11da111e111a/s o] the
E11e1��y Crisis .. 011 the 20'" anuiversary of itsfirst publication in the American Journal of Physics in Septetnber
o] I <J7X. Siuce 1he11, it has been reprinted in [ull or abridged in o ver 30 difT'erent publications or proceedings,
includins; translation into Spanlsh for publicution in Mexico. Tite special imponunce of this artic!e as a
resource [or educators is rejlected in its 11.�e i11 severa! introductory physics textbooks. in the "Pliysics
Teuchers · CD-ROM Too/kit .. published hy the University o] Nebrasku, an d in the U11i1ed Nations
Educational Scientific aud Cultural Organization :,· journal New Trcnds in Physicx Teaching. /11 honor of
this reprinting, Dr: Bartlett has preparad a special introduction /O thls timeless classic.

BACKGROUND was ílawed, so I got out tables of logarithms and used

Around 1969, college anti university studerus de­
veloped a major interest in the environment and. stimu­
lated by this. 1 began to realize that neither I nor the
siudents hac.l a good understanding of the implicarions
of stcady growth. and in particular. of the cnorrnous
nurnbers that could be produced by steady growth in
rnodest periods of time. On Septernber 19. 19691 spoke
to thc studenrs of the pre­medica! honor socict y on "The
Arithmetic of Population Growth." Fortunately I kept
my notes for rhe taík. because I was invitcd 10 speak to
othcr groups. and I gave the sarnc talk, appropriately
reviscd and enlarged. By the end of 1975 J had givcn
thc talk 30 times using different rules, and I was be­
coming more intercsted in the exponeruial arithmetic of
stcady growth, 1 started writing short nurnbcred pieces,
"The Exponcntial Function." which were publishcd in
The Pliysics Teocher: Then the first encrgy crisis gave
a ncw sense of urgency to the need to hclp pcoplc to
guin a beuer undcrstanding of the arithmctic of xrcudy
growth. and in particular of thc shorrcning of ihc lite
cxpcciancy of a non­rcnewable rcsourcc if une hud
sicady growth in the rute of consumption of such a re­
sourcc until thc last of thc resourcc was uscd.
When I tirst calculated the Exponcntial Expiraiion
Time (EET) of U.S. coa! lor a particular rate of growth
or consumption. using Eq, 6. J used rny new hand­hcld
clcctronic calculutor. and the re su lt was
­+­+ years. This was so short thal I suspectcd I had
111adc an error in cntering the prohlcm. 1 rcpca1cd the
cakulation a couple of more times. an<I got thc same
­W ycars. This convinccd me lhat my ncw calculator
pencil and papcr 10 calculate the result, which was
44 years. Only then did I begin to reali7.e 1he degree to
which the lifetime of a non­renewable resource was
shortcned by having steady growth in the rate of con­
sumpt ion of the resource. and how misleading it
is for leaders in business and industry to beadvocating
growth of rates of consumption and tclling people
how long thc resource will last ''at present rates
of consumption.''
This led to thc first version of chis paper which was
presen1ed atan energy conference at the University of
Missouri at Rolla in October 1976, where it appears in
the Pmc:eedi11gs or the Confcrence. In reading other
papers in the Pmcedi11gs. 1 came to realize that promi­
nen1 peoplc in 1he cncrg.y business would sometimes
makc statcments 1ha1 s1ruck me as being unrealistic
and even outragcous. Many or thcsc statemenls werc
quotcd in the vcrsion of 1he paper that is reprinted here,
an<l this alerted me to the necd to watch the public press
for more such statcmcnts. Fortunately (or unfo11unately)
thc press and promincm people have provided a steady
strcam uf statcments 1ha1 are illuminating because thcy
reflcct an inability to do arithmetic and/or to underscand
the encrgy situation.
As this is writ1en. 1 have given my talk on "Arith­
mctic. Population. and Encrgy .. over 1260 times in 48
of thc SO Stales in the 2:­l years since 1969. 1 wish to
acknowledge many cons1n1c1ivc and hclpful convcrsa­
1ions tm these 1opics I ha,·� had throughout the 20 years
with my collcagues in lht' Dcpartmcnl of Physics. and
in partirnlar with Pror�ssors Roht:rl Ristinen and Jack
Page Z Forgotten Fundamenta Is of the Energy Crisis

Kraushaar, who have wriuen a successful textbook on
energy. ( E11e1:<:Y and Problems <la Technical Soci­
etv, John Wilcy & Sons. Ncw York City, 2nd Ed. 1993)
REFLECTIONS ON THE "FUNDAMENTALS"
PAPER TWENTY YEARS LATER
As I read the 1978 paper in 1998, 1 am pleased to
note that the arithmctic that is Lhe core of the paper
rernains unchanged, and I Ieel that there are only a few
points that nced corrcciion or updating.
years al present rates of consumption. how long would
it last if consumption were to grow say 4 % per year?"
This involves using Lhe forrnula for the EET in which
Lhe quotient ( R / r0) is the number of years the quan­
tity R of thc resource would last at the present rate of
consumption, ro­ The results of this simple calculation
are sbown in Table l.
Example 1. lf a resource would last 300 years at
present rates of consumption, then it would last 49 years
if the rate oí consurnption grcw 6 % per year.

1) When I dcrivcd my Eq. 6 in the Appcndix, 1 was TABLE l

unuware that this cquation for the Exponential Expira­ Lifetimes ofnon-renewable resources for different
tion Time (EET) had been published earlicr by R. T. rotes of growth of consutnption. Exceptfor the left
Robiscoe (his Eq. 4) in an anide, "The Effect of Growth column, ali numbers are lifetimes in years.
Rate on Conservaiion of a Resource." American Jour-
nal ,�{ Phvsics. Vol. 4 1 . M ay 197 3, p. 719­720. 1 apolo­ O% 10 30 100 300 1000 3000 10,000
gize for not having been aware of this earlier derivation
and prescntation of this equation. 1% 9.5 26 69 139 240 343 462

2% 9.1 24 55 97 152 206 265

2) 111. Thc world population was reported in 1975
to be4 billion people growing at approximately 1.9 % per
3% 8.7 21 46 77 115 150 190
year, In 1998 it is now a little under6 billion people and
rhe growth rate is reponed to be around 1.5 % per year. 4% 8.4 20 40 64 93 120 150
The decline in the rate of growth is certainly good news,
but the population growth won't stop until the growth 5% 8.1 18 36 56 79 100 124
ratc has dropped to zero.
6% 7.8 17 32 49 69 87 107
3l VI. In 1978 1 reponed that "We are currently
7% 7.6 16 30 44 61 77 94
irnponing one­half of thc petroleum we use." The data
now indicare thai, except for brief periods, this could
8% 7 .3 15 28 40 55 69 84
not huvc becn true in 1978. The basis for my staternent
was a ncwspaper clipping that said that the U.S. had 9% 7. 1 15 26 37 50 62 76
cxperienced, in 1976. the ñrst month in its history in
which more oil was imponed than was produced do­ 10% 6.9 14 24 34 46 57 69
mestically. Howcver, thc imponed fraction of che oil
consumcd in thc U.S. has risen, and in early 1995 thc Example 2. If a resourcc would last 18 years at
news said that the calendar year 1994 was the Iirst 5 % annual growth in the rate of consumption, then it
year in our nation's hisiory whcn we hud to import would lasl 30 years at present rates oí consumption.
more oil thun we wcre able to get from our ground
(O% growth)
ourselvcs. ( Colorado o.ut« February 24, 1995)

Example 3. lf a resource woul<l last 55 years al

4) 1 X. The paper reponed that by 1973 nuclear
rcactors (Iissionl supplicd approxirnatcly 4.6 o/r of our
national clcctrical power, By 1998 this had clirnbed to
approximutely 20 % of our elcctrical powcr, but no ncw
nuclear powcr plants have bccn installcd in the U.S.
since the l 970s.
5) A table that I wish I had included in the original
paper is one thal woukl give answers to questions such
as. "If a non­rcncwablc rcsourcc would last, say 50
8 % annual growth in thc rn1e of consumption. then it
would last 115 years at 3 % annual growth rate.
6) In the en<l of Section VIII of the 1978 paper J
quoted Hubbert as writing in 1956 that '"the peak of
pro<luction of petroleum" in the U .S. would be reached
bel wcen 1966 and 1971. Thc peak occun­cc.l in 1970.
Hubbcrt predicted that .. On a world scale loil produc­
tionJ will probably pass its clímax within thc ordcr of
Forgotten Fundatnentals of the Energy Crisis
half a century... !20061" My more recent analysis sug­
gests the year 2004, while Campbell and Laherrere pre­
dict that the world peak will be reached befare 2010,
tScientific American, March 1998, pp. 78­83) Studies
by oiher geologists predict the peak within the first de­
cadc of the next century. Hubbert 's analysis appears
thus far to be remarkably good.
7) Thc .. Fundumentals" paper was followed by a
paper titled, "Sustained Availability: A Management
Program Ior Non­Renewable Resources." American
Jaurnal of P!,y.,·ics. Vol. 54, May 1986, pp. 398­402.
This paper makes use of the fact that the integral from
zero to infinity of a declining exponeruial curve is Iinite.
Thus. if onc pues production of a non­renewable re­
sourcc on a dcclining exponential curve, one can al­
ways find a rute of decline such that the resource will
last [orever. This is called "Sustained Availubility."
which is sornewhat unalogous to "sustained yield" in
agriculture. This paper explores the mathernatics of
the options that this plan of action can give to a re­
sourcc­rich naiion that wants to divide its production
of a resource bel ween dornestic use and exports.
8) Many cconomists reject this son of analysis
which is based on the assumption that resources are
finite. A colleague in economics read the paper and
laier told me ihat "lt is ali wrong." When J. asked him
to poiru out che specific errors in the paper, he shook his
head, saying, "lt is ali wrong."
9) The original paper dealt more with resources
than with population. 1 feel that it is now clear that
population growth is the world's mosr serious problern,
and thut thc world's most serious population problem is
right hcrc in the U.S. Thc reason for this is that the
average American has something like 30 to 50 times
the impact on world resources as does a person in an
undcrdevcloped country. (A.A. Bartlett, Wild Eartli.
Vol. 7, Fall 1997, pp. 88­90)
We have Lhe jurisdiction and che responsibility
needed to pcrmit us to address our U.S. population prob­
lem. yet man y pre fer to focus their attention on the popu­
lation problcms in othcr countries. Before we can tell
peoplc in other countries that ihcy must stop their popu­
lation growih. we must uccept the responsibility for
working to stop populaiion growth in the United Suues,
whcrc about hall' of our population growth is thc exccss
of hirths ovcr dcaihs and the other half is
immigration. legal plus illegul. This leads me to olfer
rhe following challcnge:
Page3
Can you think of any problem, 011 any sea/e.
from microscopic to g/oba/, whose long-term
solution is in any detnonstrable way, aided,
assist ed, or advanced by having larg er
populations at tite Local level, the state level,
the national level, or global/y?
HORROR STORJES
Here are more recent horror stories to add lo lhose
that were recounted in the original paper,
1) The Rocky Mo1111tai11 News of October 6, 1993
reported that: Shell Oil Co. said " ... it planned to spend
$1.2 billion to develop the largest oil discovery in the
Gulf of Mexico in the past 20 years. The discovery ...
has an estimaced ultimate recovery in excess of 700
mi Ilion barreis of oil and gas." The 700 mi Ilion barreis
of oil sounds like a lot ­ until you note that al that time
the U.S. consumption was 16.6 mili ion barreis I day, so
that this "Jargest oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico in
the past 20 years" would supply the needs of the U.S.
for only 42 days!
2) The headline in the Wa/1 Street Journa/ for July
18, 1986 proclaimed that "U.S. Oil Output Tumbled in
First Half as Alaska's Production Fell Nearly 8%." In
the body of the story we read that che chief economist
for Chevron Corporation observes that, "The question
we can't answer yet is whether this is a new trend ora
quirk." The answer to his question is that it is neither;
it is an old rrend! lt is exactly what one expects as
one goes down the right side of the Hubbert Curve.
3) Another headline on the front page of the Wall
Street Journal (April 1, 1997) said: "Four Decades
Larer. Oil Field Off Canada is Ready to Produce. Poli­
tics, Money and Nature Put Yast Deposit on Ice; Now
It Will Last 50 Years: Shot in the Ann for U.S." rn the
body of the story we read that:
Toe Hibernia field, one of the lurgest oil discover­
ies in North American in dccades, should deliver
its first oil by ycar end. Al Jeast 20 more fields
may follow, offering well over onc billion barreis
of high­quality crude and promising that a steady
flow of oil will be justa quick tanker­run away
from the energy­thirsty East Coast.
Total U.S. oil consumption in 1996 was about 18
mili ion barreis a day. Do the long division and one sees
that the estimated "one billion barreis of high­quality
crudc" will supply the nceds of the U .S. for just 56
Page4
days! This should be compared with the "50 Years" in
the hcadline.
4) In thc Prime Time Month!» Magazine (San
Francisco. Scpternbcr 1995) we find an article, "Horses
Need Corn" by the farnous radio news broadcaster Paul
Harvcy. He crnphasizes the opportunity we have to
makc ethanul frorn corn grown in thc U.S. and then to
use thc cthanol as a fuel for our cars and trucks: "To­
day. ethanol production displaces over 43.5 mi Ilion bar­
reis of imponed oil annually, reducing the U.S. trade
balance by $645 mi Ilion ... Foras far ahead as we can
see, the only inexhaustible feed for our high horsepower
vehiclcs is com."
Therc are two problems with this:
A) Thc 43.5 mi Ilion barreis must be compared with
the annual consumption of motor gasoline in the U.S.
In 1994 we consumed 4.17 billion barreis of motor ve­
hiele gusolinc. (A1111ual Energy Review. 1994, DOE /
EIA 0384(94 ). p. 159) The ethanol production is seen
to be approximately 1 % of the annual consumpúon of
gasolinc by vehiclcs in the U.S. So one would have to
multiply com production by a factor of about 100 just to
rnake the numbers match. An increase of this rnagni­
tude in the farm acreage devoted to the production of
corn for ethanol would have profound negative dietary
consequcnces.
B) Jt takes energy (generally diesel fuel) to plow
thc ground, to fertilize the ground, to plant the corn, to
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
take care of the corn, to harvest the corn, and then
more energy is needed to distill the com to get etha­
nol. So it turns out that in the conventional production
of ethanol. the finished gallon of ethanol contains
less energy than was used to produce it! It's an
energy Joser! The net energy of this "energy source"
is negative!
5) The Clinton adrninixtration, in a "Draft Com­
prehensive National Energy Strategy" (February 1998)
talks about Arnerica's oil as being "abundant," (pg. 4)
and it advocatcs "promoting increased domestic oíl ... pro­
ducrion" (pg. 2) to reverse this downward trend in U.S.
oil production. The peak of the Hubbcrt Curve of oil
production in the U.S. was reached in 1970 and we are
now well down the right side of the Curve. The Draft
Strategy calls for ..stabilization of domestic oíl produc­
tion" (pg. J 2) which is explained in "Strategy 1" (pg.
12) "By 2005. fina stop and then reverse thc decline in
domestic oil production." The Hubbert Curve rises
and falls in a manner like tha1 of a Gaussian Error Curve,
and once one is ovcr the peak, one can pul bumps on
thc downhill side. but except for such ..noise." the trend
alter the peak is always downhill. A large national ef­
fort might reverse the decline in U.S. oíl production for
ayear or two. but it is hardly plausible to propose to
"stabilize" dornestic oil production for any extended
period of time. h almost seerns as though the U.S.
Departrnent of Energy has not studied the works of
Hubbert, Campbcll & Laherrere, lvanhoe, Edwards,
Masters and other prorninent petroleum geologists.
Forgotten Fundatnentals of the E11e1:�y Crisis
FORGOTTEN FUNDAMENTALS
OF THE ENERGY CRISIS
Albert A. Bartletl
Department of Physics, University of Colorado
"Facts do 1101 cease to exist because they are ignored, ·· Aldous Huxley.
l. INTRODUCTION'
The energy crisis has been brought into focus by
President Carter's message to the American people on
April 18 and by his message to the Congress on April
20. 1977. Although the President spoke of the gravity
of the energy situation when he said that it was
"unprecedented in our history," his messages have
triggered an avalanche of critica! responses from
national political and business leaders, A very common
criticisrn of the President's message is that
he Iailed to give sufficient ernphasis to increased fuel
production as a way of easing the crisis. The President
proposed an escalating tax on gasoline anda tax on the
large gas guzzling cars in order to reduce gasoline
consumption. These taxes have been attacked by
politicians, by labor leaders, and by che rnanufacturers
of the "gas guzzlers" who convey the impression that
one of the options that is open to us
is to go ahead using gasoline as we have used it in
the past.
We have the vague feeling that Arctic oil from
Alaska will greatly reduce our dependencc on foreign
oil. We have recently heard politicaJ leaders speaking
of energy self­sufficiency for the U.S. and of "Project
Independence." The divergent discussion of the en­
ergy problem creates confusión rather than clarity, and
from the confusion man y Americans draw the conclu­
sion that the energy shortage is mainly a matter of ma­
nipulation or of interpretation. ll then follows in the
minds of many that the shortage can be "solved" by
congressional action in the manner in which we "sol ve"
social and political problerns.
Many people seern comfortably confidcnt that the
problem is being dealt with by expcrts who understund
ir. However, when one sees the great hardships ihat
people suffercd in the Northeastern U.S. in January
Page5
1977 because of the shortage of fossil fuels, one may
begin to wonder about che long­range wisdom of the
way that our society has developed.
What are the fundarnentals of the energy crisis?
Rather than travel into the sticky abyss of statisrics
it is better to rely on a few data and on the pristine
sirnplicity of elementary mathernatics. With these it is
possible to gain a clear understanding of the origins,
scope, and implications of che energy crisis.
11. BACKGROUND
When a quantity such as the rate of consumption
of a resource (measured in tons per year or in barreis
per year) is growing at a fixed perceru per year, the
growth is said to be exponential. The important prop­
erty of the growth is that the time required for the grow­
ing quantity to increase its size by a fixed fraction is con­
stant. For example. a growth of 5 % (a fixed fraction)
per year (a constant time interval) is exponential. lt fol­
lows that a constunt time will be required for the grow­
ing quantity to double its size (increase by 100 % ). This
time is called the doubling rime T,, and it is related to
P, the percent growth per unit time by a very simple
relation thar should be a central part of the educational
repertoire of every American.
T2 = 70 / P
As an example, a growth rate of 5 % / yr will
result in the doubling of the size of the growing quantity
in a time T2= 70 / 5 = 14 yr. In two doubling times (28
yr) the growing quantity will double twice (quadruple)
in size. In three doubling times its size will increase
eightfold (2·' = 8); in four doubling times it will increase
sixteenfold (24 = 16); etc. 11 is natural then to taJk of
growth in tcrms of powers of 2.
Page6
m. THE POWER OF POWERS OF TWO
Legend has it that the game of chess was inventcd
by a malhematician who worked for an ancicnt king.
As a rcward for the invention the mathematician asked
for ihe amount of wheat lhar would he determined by
the following process: He asked thc king to place I
grain of whcat on the first square of the chess board,
double this and pul 2 grains on the second square, and
continue this way, puuing on cach square twice the nurn­
ber of grains that werc on the preceding squarc. The
filling of the chessboard b shown in Table l. We see
that on the last squarc one will place 211.1 grains and the
total number of grains on the board will thcn be one
grain less than 2<,4.
How rnuch wheat is 2',4 grains? Simple arithmctic
shows that it is approximaiely 500 times the 1976 an­
nual worldwide harvest of whcat? This arnount is prob­
ably largcr than ali the wheat that has been harvestcd
by hurnans in the history of the earth! How did wc get
to this cnormous number? lt il> simple: we started with
I grain of wheat and we doublcd ita mere 63 times!
Esp on e nt i al g rowth is ch aracteri ze d by
doubling, c111d a [ew doublittgs can lead quicklv
10 enor111011s numbers.
The examplc of thc chcsshourd (Table J) shows us
another important aspcct of exponential growth: 11,e
increase in a11y doubling is approximately equal 10
the s,1111 of al/ the preceding grawth! Note that whcn
8 grains are placed on thc 4'" square, the 8 is grcater
than the total of 7 grains that were already on thc board.
Table l.
Filling the squarcs on the chcssboard.
Square Grains on Total Grains
Numbers Square Thus Far
1 1 1 A rcccnt repor1 sugge. tcd that 1he ratc of growth
2 2 3 of world population had droppcd from 1.9 % I yr to 1.64
3 4 7
4 % / yr.1 Such a drop would ccrtainly qualify as the
8 15
5 16 31
6 32 63
7 64 127
64 263 26'1 ­ 1
Thc 32 grains placed on the 6 square are more than
1"
the total of 31 grains that wcre alrcady on the board.
Covering any squarc requircs une grain more than the
total nurnbcr 01· grains thal are already on the board.
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
On April 18. 1977 President Cárter told the Ameri­
can people, "And in each of these decades (the l 950s
and l 960s), more oil was consumed than in all of rnan's
previous history cornbined."
We can now see that this astounding observation is
a simple consequence of a growth rate whose doubling
time is T,= 1 O yr (onc decade). The growth rate which
has this doubling Lime is P = 70 / 1 O= 7 '*
I yr.
When we read that the dcrnand for electrical power
in the U.S. is expected to double in the next
10­12 years we should recognize that this means that
the quantiiy of electrical energy that will be used in
thcse 10­12 years will be approximately cqual to the
total of all of the electrical energy that has been used in
the entire history of the electrical industry in this coun­
try! Ma11y people [ind ir hard 10 believe that when
the rafe of co11.\·111np1in11 is growin g a mere
7 '« / yt: the co11.\·11111p1io11 in one decade exceeds the
1010/ o] al/ uf the previous ca11.rn111¡>1io11.
Populations tend to grow cxponentially. The world
population in 1975 was estímated to be 4 billion pcople
and it was growing ar rhe raie of 1.9 % I yr.
II is easy to calculate that at this low rate of growth the
world population would doublc in 36 yr, the population
would grow to a density of I person / m1 on the dry land
surfacc of the carth (excluding Antarctica) in 550 years,
and the mass of people would equal the mass of the
eanh in a mc:rc 1,620 ycars! Tiny growth rates can
yield incrediblc numbers in modes1 pcriods of time!
Since it is obvious that people could never live at the
density of I person / m1 over the land area of thc earth,
it b ohvious that the earth will expcricnce zero popula­
tion grow1h. The prescnt high binh rate and /or thc
present low death rate will change until they have the
samc numerical valuc. and chis will probably happen in
a 1imc much shoner than 550 years.
best news 1hc human race has evcr had! Toe report
secmcd to suggesl 1hat the drop in this growth rate was
evidcncc that the population crisis had passcd. but it is
easy 10 scc that this is not the case. The arithmctic
show� that an annual growth rate or 1.64 % will do
anything that an annual ra1c of 1.9 % will do; it just
takcs a li1tlc longcr. Forcxamplc. thc world population
woul<l incrcasc by one billion people in 13.6 ycars in­
stcad of in 11.7 ycars.
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
Compound interest on an account in the savings
bank causes the account balance to grow exponcntially.
One dollar atan interest rate of 5 % / yr compounded
continuously will grow in 500 yrto 72 billion dollars and
the interest al the end of the 500th year would be com­
ing in al the magnificent rate of $114 / s. lf left un­
touched for another doubling time of 14 years. the ac­
count balance would be 144 billion dollars and the ínter­
est would be accumulating at the rate of $228 / s.
IL is very useful to remember that steady exponen­
tial growth of n % I yr for a period of 70 yr ( 100 Jn2)
will produce growth by an overall factor of 2''. Thus
whcrc thc city of Boulder, Colorado. today has one over­
loaded se wer treatmenl plum. a steady population
growth al the rate of 5 % I yr would make it nccessary
in 70 years (one human lifetime) lo have 2� = 32 over­
loaded sewer treatment plants!
Steady inflation causes prices to rise exponentially,
An inflation rate of 6 % / yr will, in 70 years. cause
prices to incrcase by a factor of 64! lf the inflation
coruinues at this rate, the $0.40 loaf of bread we feed
our toddlers today will cost $25.60 when the toddlers
are retircd and living on their pensions!
lt has even been provcn that the number of miles of
highway in the country tends to grow exponerulally.'v­'
The reader can suspect that the world's most irn­
portant arithrnetic is the arithrnetic of the exponential
function. Oue can see ttun our long national history
o] population growth attd of growth in our per-
copita consumption of resources lie <11 the heart of
our energv problem.
IV. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN A
FlNlTE ENVIRONMENT
Bacteria grow by división so thut I bucterium be­
comes 2. the 2 divide to give 4, thc 4 divide 10 give 8.
etc. Considera hypotheticul strain of bacteria for which
this di vis ion time is I minute. Thc number of bacteria
thus grows expouentially with a doubling time of I
minute. Onc bacterium is pul in a boule al 11 :00 a.m.
and it is observcd that Lhe bottle is ful! of bacteria ar
12:00 noon. Hcre is a simple cxarnple oí exponcntial
growth in a finito environmcnt. This is mathcmaticully
ideruical LO thc case of thc exponentially growing
consumption of our finitc rcsources of fossil fucls. Keep
this in mind as you pender three questions about
thc bacteria:
Page 7
( 1) When was the boule half­full?
Answer: 11:59 a.m.!
(2) lf you were an average bacterium in the bortle,
at what time would you first realize that you were run­
ning out of space?
Answer: There is no unique answer Lo this question, so
let's ask, "Al 11 :55 a.rn .. when the bottle is only 3 % filled
( 1 I 32) and is 97 % open space (just yearning for de­
velopment) would you perceive thaL there was a prob­
lern?" Sorne years ago sorneone wrote a letter to a
Boulder newspaper to say that there was no problem
with population growth in Boulder Valley. The reason
given was that there was 15 times as rnuch open space
as had already been developed. When one thinks of 1.he
bacteria in the bottle one sees that 1he lime in Boulder
Yalley was 4 minutes bcforc noon ! See Table 11.
Table 11.
The last minutes in the bottle.
11 :54 a.m. 1/64 full (1.5%) 63/64empty
11 :55 a.m. 1/32 full (3%) 31/32 empty
11 :56 a.m. 1/16 full (6%) 15/16 empty
11:57 a.m. 1/8 full (12%) 7/8 empty
11:58a.m. 1/4 full (25%) 3/4 empty
11:59 a.m. 1/2 full (50%) 1/2 empty
12:00 noon full (100%) empty
Suppose thal al 11 :58 a.m. some farsighted bacte­
ria realize Lhat they are running out of space and conse­
quently, with a great expendi1ure of effor1 and funds,
lhey launch a search for new bottles. They look off­
shore on the outer continemal shelf and in che Arctic,
and at 11 :59 a.m. they discover three new empty botrles.
Great sighs of relief come from all 1he worried bacte­
ria, because this magnificent dis<.:overy is three times
Lhe number of botLles that had hitherto been known.
The discovery quadruples the 101al space resource known
to the bac1eria. Surely 1his will solve the problem so
thal lhc bacteria can be sell'­sufficient in space. The
bacteria! "Project lndependence" must now have
achieved its goal.
(3) How long can 1hc.: bacteria! growth continue if
1he 101al space resources are quac.lrupkd?
Answcr: Two more doubling times (minutes)! See
Table 111.
James Schlesingcr. Scc.:rciary of Energy in Presi­
den! Carter's Cabine1 rccen1ly noted that in 1he energy
crisis "we havc a classic case of exponential growth
against a finite source."4
Page8
Table 01.
The effect of the discovery of three new bottles.
11:58 a.m. Bottle No. 1 is one quarter full.
11 :59 a.m. Bottle No.1 is half­full.
12:00noon Bottle No.1 is full.
12:01 p.m. Bottles No. 1 and 2 are both full.
Bottles No. 1, 2, 3, 4 are all full.
12:02p.m.
Q11mlm¡,li11g tlu: re:,11111-n• r.,11•11tl., tlu: life 1,f 1/11· rrsourc« by m1/y 1w11
J1111hli11g 1i111e.<! Wlu•11 c1111.\1111t¡m1111 gm11·s rxponcntlulíy. c1111n11011s
incrrnses in resourccs ,11·t· runsumrtí in 11 ,.,.,_,. ithort time!
V. LENGTH OF LIFE OF A FINITE RESOURCE
WHEN THE RATE OF CONSUMPTION IS
GROWING EXPONENTIALLY
Physicists would tend to agrcc that the world's min­
eral resources are finite. The extem of the resources is
only incompletely known, although knowlcdge aboul the
extern of the rernaining resources is growing very rap­
idly. The consumption of resources is generally grow­
ing exponentially, and we would like to have an idea of
how long resources will lasi. Let us plot a graph of the
rate oí consumption r(t) of a resource (in units such as
tons / yr) as a function of time measured in years. Toe
arca under the curve in thc interval between times t =
O (ihe present, where the rate oí consumption is r0)
and t = T will be a rneasure of the total consumption
C in tons of the resource in the time interval. We can
find thc time T,. at which the total consumption C is
equal to the sizc R of the resource and this time will be
an estímate oí the cxpiraiion time of the resource.
Imagine that thc raic of consumption of a resouree
grows at a consiant rute unt i I thc last of the resource is
consumed, whereupon the rute of consumption falls
abruptly to zero. lt is appropriatc to examine this model
because this constant exponcntial growth is an accu­
rate retlection of the goals and aspirations of our eco­
nomic system. Unending growth of our rates oí pro­
duction and consumpiion und uf our Gross National
Product is the central ihemc of our econorny and it is
rcgurdcd as disastrous whcn actual rutes of growth foil
bclow the planned rates. Thus it is relevant to calculare
thc lifc expectancy of a resource under conditions of
constan! rates of growih. Under these condirions the
period of time ncccssury to consume the known re­
serves of a resourcc may be callcd thc exponemial ex­
piraiion time (EET) of rhc resourcc. Thc EET is a func­
tion of the known sizc R of rhe rcsource. of rhe cur­
ren, rute of use r0 of thc rcsourcc. and of thc frac­
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
tional growth per unit time k of the rate of consump­
tion of tbe resource. The expression for the EET is
derived in the Appendix where it appears as Eq. (6).
This equatíon is known to scholars who deal in resource
problerns' but there is liule evidence that it is known or
understood by the political, industrial, business, or labor
lcaders who deal in energy resources, who speak and
write on the energy crisis and who take pains to em­
phasize how esseruial it is to our socieiy to have contin­
ued uninterrupted growth in ali parts of our economy.
The equation for the EET has been called the best­kept
scientific secret of the ccntury.6
VI. HOW LONG WILL OUR FOSSIL FUELS
LAST?
The question of how long our resources will last is
pcrhaps the most irnportant question that can be asked
in a modern industrial society, Dr. M. King Hubbert, a
geophysicist now rctired from the United States Geo­
logical Survey, is a worl<l authority on the estimation of
cnergy resources and on the predictiqn of lheir patterns
of discovery and deplecion. Man y or the data u sed here
come from Hubbert.'s papers.7 • 10 Several or che fig­
ures in this paper are redrawn from figures in his pa­
pcrs. Thcse papers are required reacling for anyone
who wishes to understand the fundamentals and many
of the details of the problem.
Let us examine the situation in regard to production
of domestic crude oil in rhe U.S. Table IV gives the
rclevant data. Note that si11ce eme-ha// of 011r do-
111estic petrole11111 has already hee11 con.rnmed, the
"petrole11111 rime" in 1he U.S. is J 111i1111te before 110011!
Figure I shows the historical trend in <lomcstic produc­
Table IV.
United States crude oil (lower 48 states)
Ultimate total production (Ref. 7) 190
Produced to 1972 96.6
Percent of ultimate total production
produced to 1972 (Ref. 7) 50.8%
Annual production rate 1970 3.29
U11it.\' are /0'1 /Jarre/.\'
( 1 harre/ = 42 U.S. �al. = 158.98 L)
tion (consumption) of cru<lc oil. Note that from 1870 to
about 1930 the rate of pro<luction of <lomestic crudc oil
incrcased cxponcntíally ata ratc of 8.27 'fr / yr with a
douhling time of 8.4 years. lf the growth in the rate
or production stopped an<l the rate of pro<luction was
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis Page 9

PRODUCTION RATE Table V

(109 BARRELSJYA.) Exponential expiration lime (EET) in years of various esrimaies
nf U.S. oil reserves for diffcrcnt rates of growth of annual produc­
non. Unit� are 10' barreis. Thís table is prcpared by using Eq. (6)
wirh r = 3.29 X 10• barrels/yr. N111e that this is domestic
pmtl11f';io11 whicl: is 011/y about 011e hal] 11/ domestic c1111.1w11ptiu11!
Column I i� thc pcrccnt annual growth rote. Column 2 is rhe
lifetirne (EETJ of thc resource whích is calculated using R = 190
. %.6 = 93.4 as the esiimatcd oil rcmaining in thc lower 48
sturcs. Column 3 is thc lifctime (EETJ calculared R :: 93.4 + IO
111 111d11d1' ,1,,, Alask1111 oil. Column 4 is thc lifctimc (EET) calcu­
laicd uxing R = 93.4 + IU + 103.4 = 206.8 10 includc Aluskan
0.001 0.00 oil and a hypothetical estimare of U.S. uil shalc.
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970

Fig. l. History of U.S. crude ou production Col.1 (%) Col.2 (yr) Col.3 (yr) Col.4(yr)
(u111ilo,:arit/1111ic sra!e ).
Redr<111·11 [roin Hubben '.r FiR. 12. Ref, 7. Zero 28.4 31.4 62.8
1% 25.0 27.3 48.8
held constant al che 1970 rate, che remaining U.S. oil 2°/o 22.5 24.4 40.7
3% 20.5 22.1 35.3
would last only ( 190­96.6) / 3.29 = 28 yr! We are
4% 19.0 20.4 31.4
currently irnporting one­half of the petroleurn we use. 5% 17.7 18.9 28.4
lf these imports were cornpletely cut off and if there 6% 16.6 17.7 26.0
was no growth in the rate of dorncstic consumption 7% 15.6 16.6 24.1
above the 1970 rate, our dornestic petroleurn reserves 8% 14.8 15.7 22.4
would last only 14 years! The vast shaleoil deposits of 9% 14.1 14.9 21.1
Colorado and Wyoming represent an enormous re­ 10% 13.4 14.2 19.9
source. Hubbert reports that thc oíl recoverable under
1965 techniques is 80 x I o�
barreis, and he quotes shale deposits like these near Rifle, Colorado, could pro­
other higher estimares. In the preparation of Table V, vide more than a 100­yearsupply." This statement should
the figure t 03.4 x 109 barreis was u sed as the estí­ be compared with the figures given in column 4 of Table
mate of U.S. shale oíl so that the reserves used in the V. This comparison will serve to introduce the reader
calculation of column 4 would be twice those that were 10 the disturbing divergcnce between reassuring
used in the calculation of column 3. This table makes it statements by authoritative sources and the results of
clear that when consumption is rising exponentially,
simple calculations.
a doubling of the remalning resource results in
011/y a small increase in the lije expectancy of Anyone who wishes to talk about energy self­suf­
the resource. ficicncy for che United Srates (Project lndependence)
must undersiand Table V and the simple exponential
A reponer from CBS News, speaking about oíl shale calculations upon which it is bascd.
on a three­hour telcvision special feature on energy
(August 31. 1977) said, "Most experts estimare that oil Table VI gives staiistics on world production of crude
oil. Figure 2 shows the historical trend in world crude
oil production. Note that from 1890 to 1970 the produc­
PRODUCTION RATE tion grew ata rate of 7.04 % I yr. with a doubling time
10
of 9.8 years. lt is easy to calculate that the world re­
(109 ARRELS/YA.)
serves of crude oil would last I O I years if the growth in
annual production was halted and production in the fu­
7.04% PEA YR. ture was held constaru at the 1970 level. Table VII
shows the life expectancy (EET) of world crude oil
reserves for various rutes of growth of production and
shows ihe amount by which the life expectancy is ex­
TIME tended if one adds world depositx of oil shale. Colurnn
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 4 is based on rhe assumption that the available shale oil
Fig. 1. History of world crude oil is tour times as largc as the valuc reponed by Hubbert.
produrtion (semilogorittunir scalr ). Note azuin that the effect of this vcry large hypotheti­
Redruwn .fm111 Hubbcrt '.f Fig, 6. Re]. 7. cal inc;ease in the resource is vcry small. Figure 3
Page JO Forgotten Fundamentáis of the Energy Crisis

Table VI. From these calcularions we can clraw a general con­

World crude oil data clusion of great importance. When we are dealing with
exponential growth we do not need to have an
Ultima te total production (Ref. 7) 1952 accurate estimate of the size of a resource in order to
Produced to 1972 261 make a reliable estima/e of how long the resource
Percent of total production produced will last.
to 1972 (Ref. 7) 13.4 % A B
Annual Production rate 1970 16.7 Al.l ,1 1950­
BEFOAE
1950 1960 1970­
1960· 1980
Units are I o� barreis. 1970
1990·2000
Note lhat a little more than 1/a oí thc world's oil has hccn 1980­
consumed. The "world petrolcun, time" is hetween 2 1990
aud .1 min ht'fore 110011, i.e. 11·,· are between 2 and J
doubling thnes [rom the expiration of the resource. e D

THIS AMOUNT OF OIL MUST

shows a drarnatic graphical model from Mario lona that BE DISCOVERED IF WE WISH
can be uscd to represent this growth, 11 When consurnp­ TO HAVE OIL CONSUMPTION
tion grows 7 'lo/ yr the consumpuon in any dccade is CONTINUE TO GROW 7 PEACENT
PEA YEAR FOA THE DECADE
approximately equal to the surn of ali previous consurnp­ 2000­2010.
tion as can be seen by the areas representing consump­
tion in succcssive decades. The rectangle ABDC rep­ E F
rescnts ali thc known oil, including ali that has been
used in the past, and the rectangle CDFE represents A friend recently tried to reassure me by asserting
the 11ew discoveries that must be made if we wish thai there rcmained undiscovered under our country at
the 7 % / yr growth IO continue 011e decade, [rom least as much oil as ali we have ever used. Since it bas
the year 2000 to 20 JO! been about 120 years since the first discovery of oil in
this country, he was sure that the undiscovered oíl would
be sufficient for another 120 years. 1 had no success in
convincing him that if such oil was fouod it would be
Table VD.
t.ifc cxpecraney in ycars o( vanous esummcs oí world oil reserves sufficient only for one doubling time or about a decade.
for diffcrcnt ratcs oí growth oí annuul production. Unit� are 10"
barrcls, This tublc í� prcpurcd by using &1. (6) with r,. = 16.7 X As thc reader pondcrs the seriousness of the situa­
10'' barrels I yr. Column I is thc pcrcem nnnual growih nne of
produciion. Column 2 i, rhc EET oí thc rcsource culculutcd using
tion and asks, "What will life be likc without petroleurn?"
r = 1691 as the estímate oí rhc amount oí thc rcmaining oil the thought arises of heating homes electrically or with
Cnlumn Ji� thc EET calculutcd using R = 1691 + 190 = 1881 solar power and of travcling in clectric cars, A far more
rcpr.::­cnting crudc oíl plux oíl shulc. Column 4 is ihc EET cnlcu­
hucd using R = 1691 + 4 ( 190) = 2451 which nssurucs thut rhc
fundamental problem beco mes apparent when one rec­
amount of shulc oil Is tour timex thc amount which is known now, ognizes that modern agriculture is based on petroleum­
powered machincry and on pctroleum­based
Col. 1 (%) Col. 2 (yr) Col. 3 (yr) Col. 4 (yr) fcnilizcrs. This is rcflected in a dcfinition of modero
agriculturc: "Modero agriculturc is the use of land to
Zero 101 113 147 convert petroleum into food."
1% 69.9 75.4 90.3
2% 55.3 59.0 68.5
3%
Item ··we havc now reachcd the point in U .S. ag­
46.5 49.2 56.2
4% 40.5 42.6 48.2 riculture whcre we use 80 gallons of gasoline or its
5% 36.0 37.8 42.4 equivalen! 10 mise an acre of corn. but only nine hours
6% 32.6 34.1 38.0 of human labor per crop acre for che average of ali
7% 29.8 31.2 34.6 cypes of produce:1�
8% 27.6 28.8 31.8
9% 25.7 26.8 29.5 Think for a rnoment of thc cffect of petroleum on
10".k 24.1 25.1 27.5 American lifc. Petrolcum has madc it possible for Ameri­
can fanns 111 be operacetl hy only a tiny fraction of our
 Forgotten Fundamentuls of the Energy Crisis
population: only I American in 26 lived on a farm in
1976. The people thus displaced from our farms by pe­
troleurn­based rnechanization have migrated lo the cit­
ies where our ways of Iife are critically dependent on
petroleum. Thc furms without the large number of people
Lo do the work are also critically dependent on perro­
leum­based mechanization. Thc approaching exhaus­
tion of the domes tic reserves of petroleum and the rapid
depletion of world reserves will have a profound cffcct
on Arnericans in the cities and on the furms. 11 is clear
that agriculture ..L­; we know it will experience major
changes within thc life expectuncy of most of us. and
with these changes could come a major turther deterio­
ration of world­widc levels of murition. The doubling
time (36 ­ 42 yr) of world population (depending on
whether lhe annual growth rule is 1.9 % or 1.64 %)
means thut we havc this period of Lime in which we
rnust doublc world food production if we wish Lo do no
beuer than huid constant the fracrion of the world popu­
lution that is sturving. This would mean that the number
starving al the end of the doubling time would be twice
thc number thai are starving today. This was pul into
bold relicf by David Pirnentel of Cornell University in
an invited paper al the 1977 annual meeting of AAPT­
APS (Chicago. 1977):
As a result of ovcrpopulation and resource lirni­
tations. the world is fast losing its capacity to feed
iisclf. .. More alarrning is the fact that while the
world population doubled its nurnbers in about 30
years the world doubled its energy consumption
within the past decade. Moreover, the use of
energy in food production has been increasing
Iaster than its use in many orher sectors of
the economy,
It is possiblc to calculare an absolute upper Iirnit to
thc amount of crude oil thc earth could coruain. We
simply assert that the volurnc of petroleum in the earth
cannot be largcr thun thc vol u me of the earth. The vol­
ume of the carih is 6.81 x I ff I barreis. which would last
for4.I x 1011 yr ifthc 1970rateofconsumptionofoil
held constan! with no growth. The use of Eq. (6) shows
that if thc rute of consumption of petroleum continucd
on thc growih curve of 7 .04 % I yr of Figure 2. this
earth Iull of oíl will last only 342 years(
lt has frcquently hcen suggcstcd that coal will an­
swcr thc U.S. and world energy needs for a long period
in the future. What are the racts?
Table V 111 shows data on U.S. coal prodm:tion that
are takcn from sevcrnl soun.:cs. Figure 4 shows Lhe
Page JI
history of coal production in the U.S. Note that from
1860 to 191 O, U .S. coal production grew exponentially at
6.69% I yr (T, = 10.4 yr). The produclion then leveled off
at 0.5 x 109 tons I yr which held approximately constant
until 1972 whereupon the rate started to rise steadily.
Coal consumption rernained level for60 yr because our
growing energy demands were mel by pelroleum and
nalllral gas. In early 1976 Lhe annual coal production
goals of the U.S. government were 1.3 billion tons for
1980 and 2. J billion Lons for 1985. The 1976 production
is now reported to have been 0.665 billion tons and the
current goal is to mise annual production Lo a billion
tons by 1985 _ 1., From these data we can see that the
Ford adminislralion's goals called forcoal production to
increase on lhe order of I O%/ yr while the Carter admin­
istration is speakingof growth of production of approxi­
mately 5 % I yr.
Table IX shows the expiration times (EET) of the
high and lhe low estimates of U.S. coal reserves for
various rates of increuse of the rate oí production as
calculated from the equation for Lhe EET [Eq. (6)). lf
we use the conservative smaller estímate of U.S. coal
reserves we see thaL the growth of the rate of con­
sumplion will have Lo be held below 3 % / yr if we
want coal to last until our nation 's tricemennial. lf we
want coal to last 200 yr. che rate of growth of annual
consumption will have to be held below 1 % I yr!
Table VIII.
United States coul resource.
Ultimate total production (Ref. 7)
Hlgh estímate 1486
Loweslimate 390
Produced through 1972
(My estímate from Hubbert's Fig. 22) 50
Percent of ultimate production produced through 1972
Percent of high estímate 3%
Percent of low estimate 13%
Goal resource remaining
High estimate 1436
Low estimate 340
Annual production rate, 1972 0.5
Rate of export of coal, 197 4 0.06
Annual production rate, 197 4 0.6
Annual production rate, 1976 0.665
Units are 10'' mctric: tons.
Page 12 Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis

One obtains an interesting insight into the problem

Table IX.
if one asks how long beyond the year 191 O could coal
Lifctimc in years of Uni1cd States coa! (EET). Thc lifctimc
production have continued on lhe curve of expo­nential CEET> in ycars of U.S. coal reserves (bolh ihe high and low
growth al the historie rate of 6.69 % / yr of Figure 4. estimare of the U.S.G.S.) are shown for several rates of growth of
production írom the 1972 tcvel of 0.5 ( x I o•) me trie tons pcr year,
The smaller estimare of U.S. coal would have been
consumed around the year 1967 and the large estímate
High Low
would have ex pi red around the year 1990. Tiras it is c/ear Estimate (yr) Estímate (yr)
that tlie use of coa/ as an energy source in 1978
and in tlie years to come is possible 011/y because Zero 2872 680
tire growth in the annual production o] coa/ was 1% 339 205
tero from 19/0 /O about 1972! 2% 203 134
3% 149 102
vn. WHAT DO THE EXPERTS SAY? 4%
5%
119
99
83
71
6% 86 62
Now that wc have seen the facts let us compare 76
7'°/o 55
thcm with xtatements from authoritative sources. Let 8% 68 50
us look first at a report to the Congress. 9% 62 46
10% 57 42
11 is clear, particularly in the case of coal, that 11% 52 39
we have ample reserves ... Wc have an abun­ 12% 49 37
dance of coal in the ground. Simply statcd, the 13% 46 35
crux of the problem is how to get it out of the
ground and use it in environmentally acceptable
ways and on an economically cornpctitive basis ... At current levcls of output and recovery
these reserves can be expected to last more than
500 years. 14

5000 PRODUCTION
1 1
RATE1 I Here is one of the most dangcrous staternents in
109 METRIC TONS/YR I the literatura. It is dangerous because news media and
')(.
10
1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Fig . .J. History 11f U.S. roa! productlon (.w·milogarirhmic
scatc). Retlruwn [rom Hubbcrt s Fig, 10. Re]. 7. /11 the upper
rigl«. th« crosses in th« .\'l<'l'/1 dashed curve show th« coa/
productlon grml.v uf the Fon/ /\d111i11is1rati1111, mu/ th<• rircles
i11 tll<' /1111·,•r dashed C/IIW! show thc ¡1rm/11ctio11 g1111/.v o] the
Cartcr Administrution, Fmm the clos« of tite Americnn Civil
\Vu,· 111 ab1111t tlt« ye ar /1.)/0. rou! pr11tl11cri1111 gr1•11· (1/ a
S/<'111/.r rute 11/' 1UW% I yr: lf this gmu-t/1 rote /111d cuntinued
1111di111i11ished after /910. tlu: stnul! rstimate o] tlu: si:e of
U.S. roa! reserves u­011/t! l,111'<' /1c'<'II 1't111.rn11wd hy ahout /967
a111/ tlu: lorger estinune o] rite si:» 11.f 11,e rrsrrvrs 11·111tld
/1111•1• bren nm.\·11111<•<1 l>y alu1111 thr _1'1'111' I <)90!
the energy companies pick up the idea that "United
States coa! will last 500 years" while the media and the
energy cornpanies forget or ignore the important ca­
veat with which the sentcnce began. "At current levels
of output ... " Toe right­hand column of Table IX shows
that ar zero rate of growth of consumption even the low
estímate of the U.S. coal resource "will last over 500
years." However, it is absolutely clear that the govern­
ment does noi plan to hold coa! production constant "at
current leve Is of out pu t. ..
Coa! reserves far cxceed supplies of oil and gas,
and yet coa) supplics only 18 % of our total en­
crgy. To maintain cven this contribution we will
necd to i ncrcase coal production by
70 % by 1985. but the real goal. to increasc coal 's
share of the cncrgy market will require a stag­
gering growth rute."
While the governmcnt is telling us that we must
achieve enormous incrcases in the rute of coal produc­
rion. other govemrnentul otficials are telling us that we
can increase the ratc of production of coal and have
thc rcsource last for a vcry long time.
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
Thetrillionsoftons of coal lying underthe United
States wilJ have to carry a large part of the
nation 's increased energy consumption, says (the)
Director of the Energy Di vis ion of the Oak Ridge
National Laboratoríes. "He estimated Arnerica's
coal reserves are so huge, thcy could last 'a míni­
mum of 300 years and probably a máximum of
1000 years'. "16
Compare the above statement of the life expect­
ancy of U.S. coal reserves with ihe results of very
simple calculations given in Table IX.
In the three­hour CBS televisión special on energy
(August 31, 1977) a reponer stressed the great efforts
that are being rnade to increasc the raie of production
of US coal. and he summarized the situation in these
words, "By the lowest estímate, we have enough (coal)
for 200 years. By the highest, enough for more Lhan a
thousand years."
Again, compare the above staterneru with the re­
sults of simple calculations shown in Table IX.
While we read these news stories we are bombarded
by advertisernents by the energy companies which say
that coaJ will last a long lime at present rates of con­
sumption and which say at the same lime rhat we must
drarnatically increase our rate of production of coal.
At the rate the United States uses coal today,
these reserves could help keep us in energy for
the next two hundred years ... Most coal used in
America today is burned by electric power plants
­which­consumed about 400 mili ion tons of coal
last year. By 1985 chis figure could jump 10 nearly
700 million tons.17
Orher advertisements stress just the 500 years
(no caveat): "We are sining on half the world's
known supply of coal­enough for over 500 years.""
Sorne ads stress the idea of self­sufficiency without
stating [or how long a period we might be self-suf-
ficient. "Coal, the only fuel in which América is totally
self­sufficient.""
Oiher ads suggcsr a dcep lack uf understanding of
the Iundarnentals of the exponentiul function.
Yet today thcre are still those who shrill (sic) Ior
less energy and no growth ... Now Amcrica is
obl igatcd to generare more cncrgy ­ not
lcss ­ merely to providc for it:­. incrcasing popu­
lation ... With oíl and gas in short supply, whcrc
Page 13
will that energy come from? Predominately from
coaJ. The U.S. Department of the Interior esti­
mates America has 23 % more coal than we
dreamed of, 4,000,000,000,000 (trillion!) tons of
it. Enough forover 500 years. (Toe non­sentences
are in the original.)"
A simple calculation of the EET based on a current
production rate of 0.6 x 109 tons I yr shows that the
growth in the rate of production of coal can' l exceed
0.8 % I yr if the ad's 4 x 1011 tons of coal is to last for
the ad's 500 yr. However, it should be noted that the 4
x 101� tons cited in the ad is 2.8 times the size of the
large estímate of U .S. coa! reserves and is 12 times the
size of the small estímate of U.S. coal reserves as cited
by Hubbert.
Whcn we view the range of creative information
that is offered to the public we cannot wonder that
people are confused. We may wish that we could have
rapid growth of the rate of consurnption and havc the
reserves of U.S. coaJ last for a large number of years,
but very simple calcularions are ali that is needed to
prove that these two goals are incompatible. Al this
critica! time in our nation 's history we need to shift our
faith to calculations (arithmetic) based on factual data
and give upourbeliefin Walt Disney's First Law: "Wish­
ing will make it so."!'
On the broad aspects of the energy problern we
note that the top executive of one of our great corpora­
tions is probably one of rhe world's authorities on the
exponential growth of investrncnts and compound in­
terest. However. he observes that "the energy crisis
was made in Washington." He ridicules "the modern­
day occult prediction" of "computer print­outs" and
warns against extrapolating past rrends to estímate what
may happen in the future. He then points out how
American free­enrerprise solved the great "Whale Oil
Crisis" of the l 850s. Wíth this single example as his
data base he boldly extrapolares into the future lo as­
sure us that American ingenuity will solve the current
energy crisis if the bureaucrats in Washington will only
quit interfering.�1 lt is encourag.ing to no1e 1hat Lhe per­
son who madc these statements in 1974. suggesting that
the energy crisis was comrived rather than real, has
now signed his name on an advertisement ínNt'W.\week
Magazine (Sept. 12. 1977) saying that. ''Energy is not
a poi itical issuc. lt 's an issue of survival. Time is run­
ni ng ou1.·· 1­fowcver. the s.une issue of Newsweek
Maga:ine carried two advenisemcnts for coal which
said: "Wc've limitcd ouruse of coal whilc a supply 1hat
will last for ccn1uries sils unc.ler our noses ... Coal ­ can
provide our cncrgy needs for centuries to come."
Pagc /4
Carefully read this ad by the Edison Electric lnsti­
tute for the Electric Companies telling us that: "There is
an increasing scarcity of ccrtain.f11e/s. But there is no
scarcity of e11e1:i:Y· There nevcr has been. There never
wil! be. There nevcr coukl be. Energy is inexhaust­
iblc." (Ernphasis is in the original.)" We can read that
a professor in a school of mining iechnology offers
.. proof" oí the proposition: .. Mankind has the right to
use the world's rcsources as il wishes, to the limits of
its abilities ..... 14
We have the opening scnte nce oí a majar
scicntific study of the energy problem: .. The Unitcd
States has an abundancc of cncrgy resourccs: fossil
tucls (mostly coal and oil shalc) udcquate for centuries.
fissionable nuclear fucls udequate Ior millennia and solar
energy ihat will last indcfinitcly ... We can read the
15
words of an educated authority who asscrts that there
is no problem of shonages of resourccs: .. lt is 1101 true
that we are running out of resources ihat can be easily
and cheaply exploited withoui regard for [uture
operations." His next sentence denics that growth is a
serious componen! of the cncrgy problem, "lt is not
true that we must turn our back on economic
growthIemphasis is in the original). Threc sentences
latcr he says that there may be a problem: "We must
face the fact that the well of nonrenewable natural
rcsources is not bouomless ...2'' He does suggesi that
lack of "leadership'' is pare of the problem.
We have a statcrncnt by Ralph Nader.:'The supply
of oil. gas. and coal in this counrry is enonnous and
cnough for hundreds of years. 11 is not a question of
supply but a question of price and profits, of rnonopolies
and undue political ínñucnce.""
Expert analysis of ihc problern can yicld unusual
rccornmendations. We have the opening paper in an
energy conference in which a speaker frorn a major
cncrgy company makes no mention of thc contribution
of growth to the energy crisis when he asscns that:
..Thc core of the energy problcm hoth U.S. and world­
wide [is] our excessive dependence on mir two scarc­
cst cnergy resources ­ nil und natural gas." For him
continued growth is not part of thc problern, it is part of
che solurion! "More cncrgy musi he made available at
a higher rate of growth thun normal ­ in ihc neighbor­
hood of 6 percent per ycar compurcd to a recem his­
torical growth raie oí' 4 pcrceru pcr ycar, ..1�
The patient is suffering from cáncer. and .tfter a
careful study. the doctor prcs<.:rihcs thc rcmedy: givc
the patient more cancer. Hcre is a second <:ase where
Forgotten F111ula111e111als o] the Energ» Crisis
cancer is prescribed as the cure for cancer. The Na­
Lional Petroleum Council in its report to Lhe energy in­
dustry on the energy crisis: observed that "RestricLions
on energy demand growth could prove (to be) expen­
sive and undesirable ... The Council ·natly rejected' any
conserva1ion­1ype measures proposing instead the pro­
duction of more energy sources domestically and �he
easing of cnvironmental controls."29
Stutly this statement carefully: .. Energy industries
agree that to achieve some form of energy self­suffi­
ciency thc U.S. must mine ali the coal that it can."30
Thc plausihility nf this statemem disappcars and its real
mcaning becomcs apparent when we paraphrasc it:
..The more rapidly we consume our resources. the more
self­suílicient we will be:· David Browcr has referred
to this as the policy of "Strt!11gtl1 tlmmgh Exlw11s-
tio11. ··.11 This policy has many powerful adherents. For
example. on the three­hour CBS television special on
energy (Aug. 31. 1977) William Simon. energy adviser
to Presiden! Ford said: ··we should be .. trying to get
as many holes drilled as possible lo get the proveo
(oil) reserve .. :·
Is it in the national interese to get and use these
reserves as rapic.lly as possible? We certainly get no
sense of urgency from the remarks of the Board Chair­
man of a major multinational encrgy corporation who
conclucles the discussion .. Let's Talk Frankly About En­
ergy'· with his mild assessment of what wc must do.
··Getting on top of rhe energy problem won't be easy. lt
will be an expensive and rime­consuming task. lt will
rcquire courage, creativeness and disciplinc .. .'''
2
lf one scarc:hcs beyond the work of Hubberl for an
indication of 01hcrs who undcrstand thc fundamemal
arithmetic of thc problem one finds occasional encour­
aging cvidcnce. However. whcn one compares the
1•1
rcsulls of 1hc simple cxponential calcula1ions with news
storics. with statemcnts from public officials. and
or
with assertions in advenisements the energy compa­
nics it is harc.l to imagine that this arithmetic is
witlely undcrstood.
The ari//111w1ic o( groll'th is the forgotten .fi111lla111e11-
lllf <f tlw c•nergy crisis.
VIII. A WORD OF CAUTION
Wc mus1 note 1ha1 thesc calcula1ions of the EET of
fossil ruels are not prcdictions of rhe futurc. They sim­
ply g.ive us lirst­or<l�rcstirnates ofthe lite expeciancies
of known 4uan1i1ics of severa! fucls under the candi­
 Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
tions of steady growth which our society and our gov­
emment hold sacred. These estimates are emphasized
as aids to understanding the consequences of any par­
ticular growth scenario that the reader may want lo
consider orto evalúate.
The raie of production of our mineral resources
will not rise exponentially until the EET is reached and
then pi unge abruptly to zero, as modeled in these calcu­
lations and as shown in curve A of Fig. 5 even though
our national goals are predicated on uninterrupted
growth. The rate of production of our nonrenewable
mineral resources will not follow the classical S­shaped
transition from an early period of exponential growth to
a horizontal curve representing a constant rate of pro­
duction, curve B. Such a curve can be achieved in the
production of rencwable resources such as food, forest
products, or the production of solar energy, provided
the rate of production of the renewable resource is nol
dependen! on fossil fuels. Reference has already been
madc to the dependence of modern agriculture on pe­
troleum. andas long as this dependence continues, the
curve of agricultural production would be expected to
follow curve C, (the curve for nonrenewable peiroleurn)
RATE OF
PRODUCTION
B oil ... Wc are walking into adisas1er in the next three
Te TIME
EET
fl,f!,. 5. Three patterns of growth. Curve A represents .wrady
esponcntlal growth in the rute o] production of a 11011­re­
ncwable rcsourre 1111tíl rJu, resource is exhausted at T,. the
esponential cxpiration time ( EET). The a rea 1111dcr the curve
[rom the presrnt (t = 0) to t = T, is equal to the known size
,!{ t!it• rcsoune. Curve C represents Hubben :f modc! of the
11'0.\' ÍII which thc rute of f)l'OdUCIÍOfl of a nonrcnewahle
resouri:« rises u111/ fa/Is. This model is based 011 studics of
tlt« rafe' o] 11.1'1' o] resources which have bren 11('(11'/y C'll/11-
/1/C'tc•f.\• consumed, The arca 11111/t•r the c11r11e [rom the present
III r = 00
is t'<¡11C1f to tlu: size of tht• resource.. Curve 11
rcprescnts tlu: rUIC' of J)/'Od11ctio11 of (I renewable resource
surh C1.1· agrirultural or [orest products, where a cousutnt
strady-state production can be maintaiued [or long periods
o] time provided this prndtutinn is 1101 dependen: 011 th« use
,!f' a 1/0J//'l'IICll'a/Jle resource (s11c/1 as petrolcum¡ w/11,.H• pro­
durtion is [ollowing a ,·11n·,, such as C.
Page 15
rather than curve B. Although the rate of production of
mineral resources has been growing exponentially, one
knows that ar sorne time in rhe future the resource will
be exhausted and the rate of production will retum to
zero. The past history, this one future daturn and a
careful study of the rate versus time of production of
resources that have expired has led Dr. M. King
Hubbert lo the conclusión that the rate of production of
a nonrenewable resource will rise and fall in the syrn­
metrical manner of a Gaussian error curve as shown in
curve C of Fig. 5. When he fits the data for U.S. oil
production in the lower 48 states to a curve such as C,
Hubbert finds that we are now just to the right of the
peak. We have used one­half of the recoverable perro­
leurn that was ever in the ground in the U.S. and in the
future the rate of production can only go downhill.
However, our national demand for pctroleurn has con­
tinued to grow exponentially and the difference betwecn
our demands and our production has been made up by
imports, Bold initiatives by the Congress could tempo­
rarily reverse the trend and could pul a small bump on
the downhill side of the curve. Alaskan oil can puf a
liule bump on the downhill side of the curve. The down­
hill trend on the right side of the curve was noted clearly
by Deputy Energy Secrerary John O'Leary under the
headline, ··u.s. Energy 'Disaster' Inevitable by 1985,">1
"Although U.S. oil and gas production hit theirpeak
severa! years ago and are declining by about 8 per­
cent per year," O'Leary said, "the nation has
avoided serious problems by using more foreign
or four years with our eyes wide open."
Thc most dramatic conclusi9n that Hubbert draws
from his curve for che complete cycle of U.S. oil pro­
duc1ion is that the consumption of the central 80 % of
thc resource will take place in only 67 years!
lt is very sobering lo face the downhill side of
lhe curve and to note that in the past the rise in our
annual ¡,er copita consumption of energy has gone
hand­in­hand with thc incrcase of our standard of
living. 11 is more sobcring 10 note thc closc coupling
bc1ween our production of foocl and our use of pe­
1roleum. lt is cvcn more sobcring to note that on
March 7. 1956 (ovcr 21 ycars ago) Dr. Hubberc,
adclressing 1he conferencc in San Antonio, Texas, of
a large group of petroleum cngineers and
geologists said:
Act:ording to Lhe best curren1ly available infor­
111a1ion. Lhe proc.luction of petroleum anc.l natural
Page 16
gas on a world scale will probably pass üs cli­
max within the order of half a century, while for
both the United States and for Texas, Lhe peaks
of production can be expected to occur within
thc next I O or 15 years. (i.e., bct ween 1966 and
1971)
Pazik tells" of the shock Lhis suuerneru and the
rclated analysis causcd in oil industry circlcs and he
tells about thc efforts that wcre madc by the .. experts"
10 ignore this and the othcr results of the analysis made
by Hubbert.
IX. WHAT DO WE DO NOW?
The problems are such that we have rather few
options. Ali of the following points are vital:
(i) We must educare ali of our people toan under­
standing of the arithrnetic and consequences of growth,
especially in terms of the earth 's finite resourccs. David
Brower has observed that, "The prornotion of growth is
simply a sophisticated way to steal frorn our children."
(ii) We must educare people to the critical urgency
of abandoning our religious belicf in the disastrous
dogma that "growth is good," that "bigger is beuer,"
thut "we rnusr grow or we will stagnate." etc., etc. We
must realize that growth is but an adolescent phase of
life which stops when physical maturity is rcached. If
growth continúes in the period of rnaturity it is called
obesity or cancer. Prescribing growrh as the cure for
the energy crisís"' ?Y has all the logic of prescribing in­
creasing quantities of food as a rcmcdy for obesity. Tite
recent occasion of 011r nation '.r 200'" auniversary
would be an appropriate time to make 1Ju, transition
froni national adolescence to national 111m11ri1y.
(iii) We must conserve in the use and consurnption
of everything. We rnust outlaw planned obsolescence.
We must recognizc thut, as imponunt as il is to con­
serve. the arithrnctic shows clcarly that large savings
from conservation will be wiped out in short times by
even modest ratos of growth, For cxample. in one or
two dozcn ycars a massive federal program might re­
sult in one­half of the hcat for the buildings whcre we
live and work bcing supplicd by solar cnergy instcud of
by Iossi I fue Is. This would save I O'�· of our nat ionul use
of fossil fuels. but this cnormous saving could he com­
plciely wiped out by two years of 5 % growth. Con­
servation alone cannot do thc job! The most effective
way to conserve is to stop the growih in consumption.
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Eñergy Crisis
As we consider the absolute urgency of conserva­
tion we rnust recognize Lhat sorne powerful people are
hostite to the concept of conservation. One of our great
multinational oil companies has advertised that conser­
vation is: "Good for you­but not if there's too much."
And in the sarne ad they noted that: "Conservation does
no harm.?"
In his message to the American people Presi­
dent Carter proposed a tax on large "gas guzzling"
cars. General Motors Chairman Thornas Murphy
had the following reaction to this proposal to con­
serve energy: Murphy calls the excise tax on big cars,
couplcd with rebates on small curs "one of the rnost
simplistic irresponsible and shon­sighted ideas ever
conceived by the hip­shooting marketeers of the
Potomac. "·11•
Big labor is hoslile to lhis same conservation mea­
sure. Leonard Woodcock.. Prcsidcm of the United Auto
Workers said of the tax: "! respectfully suggest that the
proposal is wrong. lt is not properly thought through
and should be withdrawn. "·17
Congress is not enthusiastic aboul conservation:
"Look for Senate leaders on both sides of che aisle­
including Chairman Russell Long of the Finance Com­
miuee and Minority Leader Howard Baker ­ to gang
up on Carter's energy package. The two iníluential
lawmakers want more stress on the production of oil,
not so much on conservation:·Jx
Closer to home we can note chal our governors
don't show much enthusiasm for conservation: 'The
nation 's govemors told President Carter that the federal
govemment is placing too much emphasis on conserva­
tion and not enough on developing new resources."39
With all this inlluenlial opposition one can see how
difficult il will be to launch major national programs of
energy conservation.
(iv) We must recyclc almost everything. Except
for the continuous input of sunlight the human race musl
tinish the trip with thc supplics that wcre aboard when
the .. spaceship earrh'' was launched.
(v) We must invest great sums in research (a) to
develop Lhe use of solar. geothennal. wind, tidal, biom­
ass. and allcrnative energy sources: (b) to rcúucc Lhe
problcms of nuclear fission power plants: (c) 10 explore
thc possibility that we may be able lo hamess nuclear
fusion. These investments must not be made with rhe
idea that if these rcscarch prograrns are succcssful the
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
new energy sources could sustain growth for a few
more doubling times. The investments must be made
with the goal that the new energy sources could take
over the energy load in a mature and stable society in
which fossil fuels are used on a declining exponential
curve as chemical raw rnaterials and are not used as
fuel for combustion. One grcat area of responsibility
of our community of scientists and engineers is vigor­
ous pursuit of research and development in ali these
areas. These areas offer great opportunity to creative
young people.
Perhaps the rnost critica! things that we must
do is to decentralize. and consequently humanize,
the scale and scopc of our national industrial and
utility enterprises."
(vi) We muse recognize thal it is exceedingly unsci­
entific to promete cver­increasing rates of consump­
tion of our fuel resources based on complete confidence
that science, technology. and the economics of the mar­
ketplace will combine to produce vast new encrgy re­
sources as they are needed. Note the certainty that
characterizes this confidence.
Coa! could help fight a rear­guard aciion to provide
time for scientific breakthroughs which will move the
world from the fossil fuel era of wood, gas. oil, and coal
to the perpetua! energy era of infinitely renewable en­
ergy resources." The supply (of coal) is adequate to
carry the U.S. well past the transition from the end of
che oíl and gas era ro new, possibly not discovered
sources of energy in the 2000s.42
There seems to be an almost complete absence of
thc caution that would counsel us to stop che growth of
our national energy appetite until thcse "unlimitcd en­
ergy resources" are proven to be capable of carrying
the national energy load. We rnust rccognize ihat it is
1101 acceptable to base our national future on the mono
"When in doubt, garnble."
Fusion is rnost commonly mentioned as heing an
unlimited cnergy sourcc. The optimism that leads sorne
people 10 bclieve ihat fusion power will be ready whcn­
cver it is nccded should be balanced against this open­
ing statement in a repon on fusion from MIT. "Dcsign­
ing a fusión reactor in 1977 is a liule like planning to
rcuch hcaven: theories abound on how to do it. und
many people are trying, but no one ali ve has
ever succeeded.':"
lf the generation of electric powcr from fusion was
achieved today, we could ask how long would it then be
Page 17
before fusion could play a significant role in our na­
tional energy picture. The time­constant for the re­
placement of one major energy source by another can
be estimated from the fact that the first nuclear fission
reactor was operated in December 1942. Even though
the recent growth of nuclear energy in Lhe U.S. has
been spectacular, it was not until around 1972 that an­
nual energy consurnption equaled our annual energy
consumption from firewood! By 1973 nuclear energy
had climbed LO the point where it supplied 1.3 % of our
U.S. Lota! annual energy consumption and 4.6 % of our
electrical power." Thus in 31 years nuclear energy
has grown to provide only a srnall fraction of our en­
ergy nceds. Had there been no growth of our national
electrical needs since 1942. today's nuclear plants would
be supplying 41 % of our national elcctrical power.
(vii) We can no longer sit back and deplore the lack
of "leadership" and the lack of response of our political
systern. In thc irnmortal words of Pogo "We have met
the enerny, ami they's us." We are the leaders, we are
vital parts oí the political systern and we have an enor­
rnous responsibility,
The arithmetic rnakes clear what will happen if we
hope that we can continue Lo increase our rate oí con­
sumption of fossil fuels. Some experts suggest that the
systern will take care of itself and that growth will stop
naturally, even though they know that cancer, if left to
run its natural course. always stops when the host is
consumed. My seven suggestions are offered in the
spirit of preventive medicine.
X. CONCLUSION
The preceding calculations are offered as guide­
posts which must be understood by those who would
deal constructively with the energy crisis. The role and
limitations of s<.:ience in analyzing and in solving our
problcms was hcautifully expressed by Gustav Lebon
( 1841­1931 ).
Science has promised us truth; an understanding
or such rela1ionships as our minds can grasp. le
has nevcr promised us eithcr peace
or happiness.
Pcrhaps 1he most succirn.:t conclusion that is indi­
ca1cd hy thc analysis above is taken from lhc immortal
words of Pogo. ºThe futurc ain"t what it used Lo be!"
The American system of free enlerprise has ílourishcd
for 200 years with spec1ac_ular achievements. Unlil
recently it llourished in .i world whose encrgy rcsources

Page 18
were essentially infinite. Whcncverone fossil fucl carne
into short supply. anothcr could always be found to take
its place. We are now clase enough that we can see
the end of the workl's total supply of fossil fuels. The
challenge that we must meet is set forth clearly in the
question. "Can free enierprisc survivc in a finite world?"
Prcsident Carter observed ( A pri 1 18. 1977) that: "I f we
fail to act soon wc will face an economic, social. and
politicul crisis that will threaten our free institutions."
(See Fig. 6)
XI. A POSTSCRIPT FOR SCIENCE TEACHERS
For decades physics teachers throughout the world
havc discussed the RC circuir und the dccay of radio­
active utoms and have thus introduccd the simple dif­
fcrentiul cquation that gives rise 10 exponential decay
of the charge on the capacitar or of the number of re­
maining radioactive nuclei. These provide a wonderful
opportunity for us 10 digrcss and to point out that expo­
nential arithmetic has great value outside of these two
special examples in physics and to show our students
that cxponential arithrnetic is probably the most impor­
tant mathernatics they will ever sce. lt is especially
imponunt for students to sec how the change in the
sign of the exponcnt can make an enormous difference
in the behavior of the function. But we will nced to do
more. We rnust intégrate thc study of energy and of
the exponential arirhrnetic inro our courses as has been
done. for example, in one ncw text." In addition. we
huve an even larger task. As science teachers we havc
rhe grcut responsibility of participating constructively in
thc debates on growth and energy. Wc rnust be pre­
pared to recognize opinions such as thc following. which
was cxpressed in a leuer Lo me Lhat was wriucn by an
ardcru advocatc of'vcorurotlcd growth" in our local corn­
munity: "1 take no cxccption to your argumcnts rcgard­
ing exponcntial growth. 1 don't think the cxponcnrial
argurnent is valid on thc local level."
3
2
o 49 yr if oil was produced at the 1970 rate of 3.3 x I O''
­SOOOYEARS PRESENT +5000 YEARS
,:;,!/­ t,_ Tltc dclt« [uuctiou 111 th« darkncss. Redruwn Jiw11
Huhbrrt '.r Fig, t,9. Re]. 7. The ('Jmd, 11f tlu: world's 1/.1"(' of its
fi,.rsil fue!s is sliown 011 (I tiuu- srult: ,�r /1111111111 J,i,\'1111�· [nnn
50011 ,.,. ago to 5000 vr i11 th« [uturc. Tl«: vertical axis is tlu:
rute ,!f" tW/.l"IIIIIJlli1111 off(l.1".\"il [uels 1//('(/.\"I/J'l'd in 1111irs o] JO''
kW h I y,: Tltc vertical sculo is t1 linear sra!«.
­
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
We must bring to these debates the realism of arith­
metic and the new concept of precision in thc use of
language. We must convey to our students the urgency
of analyzing all that they read for realism and precision.
We must convey to our students the importance of
making this analysis even though they are reading the
works of an eminent national figure who is writing in
one of the world's most widely circulated magazines.
(The emphasis in ihe following quotations is in
the original.)
The simple truth is that America has an abun­
dance of encrgy resources ... An estimatcd 920
rrillion cubic feet of natural gas still lies beneath
the Unite<l States. Even at prcsent consumption
rates. this should last al least 45 ycars ... About
160 billio11 barreis of oil still lie below
nati ve ground or offshore. That ·s enough to
last us into the next century at present rates
of consumption.4�
When students analyze lhese stntements they can
see that the first statement is false if "abundance" rneans
"sufficient to continue currently accepted pauerns of
growth of rates of consumption for as long
as one or two human lifetimes." An evaluation of Lhe
second and third statements show that they are falsely
reassuring because they suggest the length of time our
resources will last under the special condition of no
growth oí the rates of use of these resources. The
condilion of no growth in these rates is absolutely
contrary to the precepcs of our national worship of
growth. lt is completely misleading to introduce the
results of "no growth:" unless one is advocating
"no growth.''
lf it is true that our nacural gas reserves will last 45
=
yr at presenl ratcs of consumptíon ( R I r0 45 yr), thcn
E<.¡. (6) shows thal this amount of gas would last only
23.6 years at an annual growth rate of 5 % I yr. and
only 17 yr atan annual growth rate of 1 O% I yr. Whcn
the third slatemcnt is analyzed one sces lhat the givcn
figure of 160 x 10'1 barreis of reserves ís roug.hly 60 %
larger than Hubberl 's cst imnte. This amounl would last
barreis/ yr. hcld constan! with no growth. Howcvcr,
our tlomcstic consumption is now roughly twi<.:e thc ratc
of <..lomcstic production. so this w11m1111 ,?[ oi/ would
.waisj)· do111e.,·1ic nt'eds for cm/y abo111 25 yr f there
was 110 �r<J11·1!, in these domestic 11eeds. 1 f R I r11 =
15 yr. thcn Eq. (6) shows thal this amounl or oil would
last unly 16.2 years if production grew 5 % I yr and
only 12.5 years if it grew I O% I yr.
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
We can conclude that the author is probably advo­
cati ng growth in the rate at which we use fossil fuels
from Lhe following imprecise statement, "The fact is
that we must produce more energy." Therefore the
author 's staternents about Lhe life expectancy of re­
sources at current rates of use are irrelevant. When
they are offered as reassurance of the lack of severity
of our energy problem they are dangerously and
irresponsibly misleading.
Students should be able to evalúate Lhe same author's
staternent about coal, "At lema 220 billion tons of irn­
mcdiately recoverable coal ­awaits mining in the United
States." This "could supply our energy needs for sev­
era! centuries." Students can see that the size of the
coal reserves given by ihe author is signíficantly smaller
than either of the two estimates given by Hubbert. They
can see that it is imprecise and meaningless to suggest
how long a resource will last if one says nothing about
the rate oí growth of production. In addition to encour­
uging our students to carry out their responsibility to
analyze what ihey read, we must encourage them to
recognize the callous (and probably careless) inhuman­
ity of a promineru person who is perhaps in his fifties,"
offering reassurance to younger readers to the effect,
"don ·1 worry. we have enough petroleum to last into che
next century," The writer is saying ihat "There is no
need for you to worry, for there is enough petroleum
for the rest of my life." Can we accept the urgings of
those who advocate unending expansion and growth in
thc rutes of consumption of our fossil fuel resources
and who say "Why worry, we have enough to last
into the next ccntury."
We must give our studcnts an appreciation of the
critica! urgency of evaluating the vague. imprecise. and
meaningless staternents that characterize so much oí
thc public debate on the energy problem. The great
bcncfits of the free press place on each individual the
uwesorne responsibility of evaluating the things that he
or she reads. Students of scicncc and engincering have
spcciul responsibilitics in the energy debate because
the problerns are quaruitative and therefore many of
the questions can be evaluatcd by simple analysis,
Students rnust be alert only to the writings in
1101
the popular prcss but to the wriiings in collcgc iexi­
books. In the bookstorc of a school of engineering I
purchased a book that was listcd for one of thc courses,
possibly in political scicncc. Hcre are a fcw interesting
xuucmcntx frorn the book;"
Page 19
Our population is not growing too rapidly, but
much too slowly ... To approach the problem ("the
population scare") from the standpoint of nurn­
bers per se is to get the whole thing hopelessly
back ward ... Our coal supply alone, for example,
is sufficient to power our economy for anywhere
from 300 to 900 years­depending on the uses to
which it is pul ­ while gas and oil and coal to­
gether are obviously good for many centuries ...
So whaiever the long­term outlook for these en­
ergy sources, it is obvious (that) natural shortage
cannot account for the present energy crunch.
Dr. Hubben, speaking recently, noted that we do
not have an energy crisis, we have an energy shortage.
He then observed that the energy shortage has pro-
duced a cu/rural crisis. (See Fig. 7.)
We must ernphasize to our students that they have
a very special role in our society, a role thar follows
directly from their analytical abililies. lt is their respon­
sibility (and ours) to become the great humanists.
Nore added in proo.f:
Two incredible misrepresentations of the life expect­
ancy of U.S. coal reserves have been caJled to my anen­
tion recentJy. Ttme (April 17, 1978, p.74) said:
BeneatJ1 the pit heads of AppaJachia and the Ohio
Valley, and under the sprawling strip mines of
the West. lie coal seams rich enough to meet the
country's power needs for centuries, 110 111at1er
lww mue!, energy co11.w111¡>tio11 may grow.
(emphasis addcd)
In rcply to my leuer correcting this, Time justilied
their statcment by saying chat they were using the
Citibunk estimate of U .S. coal reserves which is larger
than the estímate used by Hubbert.
A beautiful booklet, ''Energy and Economic lnde­
pendencc" (Energy Fuels Corporacion of Denver, Den­
ver. 1976) said: "As reportcd by Forbes magazine, the
United States holds 437 billion tons of known (coal)
reserves. That is equivalent to 1.8 tri Ilion barreis of oíl
in British Thermal units, or e11011gl, energy to keep
100 111illio11 large electric ge11erati11g plant.\· going
Jor the 1wx1 800 years or so.·· (emphasis added) This
is an accuratc quotation from Forbes. the respected
business magazine (Dccember 15. 1975, p.28). Long
di vis ion is all that is needed to show that 437 x 109 tons
Page 20
of coal would supply our 1976 production of 0.665 x
10·> tons per year Ior only 657 years, and we probably
have fewer than 500 large electric generating plants in
thc U.S. today. This booklet concluded, "Your under­
standi ng of the Iacts about "energy and economic inde­
pendence' issue is of great importance."
A very thoughtful comment on fusion was made to
me recently by a person who observed that it might
preve to be the worst thing lhat ever happened to us if
we succced in using nuclear Iusion to gcnerate electri­
cal energy because this success would lead us to con­
elude that we could continue the unrestrained growth in
our annual energy consumption to the point (in arela­
tively Icw doubling times) where our energy production
Irom the unlimitcd fusion resource was an appreciable
lraction of the solar power input to the earth. This
could have catastrophic consequences.
Richard Stout, columnist for the New Republic,
noted (Time, March 27. 1978, p.83) that in America,
"We consume one third of all the energy, one third of
the food and enjoy one hal f of the world 's income. Can
a disparity like this last? 1 think that much oí the news
in thc next 50 years is going to turn on whether we yield
to the inevitable graciously or vindictively."
ACKNOWLEOGMENTS
A great deal of correspondence and hundreds of
conversations with dozens of people over six years have
yielded many ideas, suggcstions, and facts which I have
incorporated hcre. 1 offcr my sincere thanks to ali who
have helped.
APPENOIX
When a quantity such as the rate r ( t) of consumption
of a resource grows a fixed perceru per year, the growth
is cxponential:
r(r) r 2 117"2 (1)
1) '
whcrc r0 is thc currcnt rate of consurnption al
1 = O, e is the base of natural logariihrns, k is the
Iructional growrh per ycar, and t is the time in years.
Thc growing quantity will increase to twice its initial
size in the doubling time 72 where:
T� (yr) = (In 2) / k = 70 / P (2)
an<.l whcre P. the pcrccnt growth pcr year, is I OOk.
The total <.:onsumption ora resourcc between the present
(1 = 0) anda futurc time T is:
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
T
e = J r(r> d, (3)
()
The consumption in a steady period of growth is:
T
e= r0 J e kl dt = < r0, k > < e k, ­ , ) (4)
o
I f the known size of the resource is R tons, then we can
determine the exponential expiration time (EET) by find­
i ng the time T, at which the total consumption C is equal
toR:
R = (1·0/k)(em­1) (5)
We may sol ve this for the exponential expiration time Te
where:
EET = T. = ( 1 / k ) In ( k R I r0 + 1 ) (6)
This equation is valid for ali positive values of k
and for those negative values of k for which the argu­
rnent of the logarithm is positive.
REFERENCF.S
1. This papcr is based on a series of anicles, "Thc Exponencial
Function" which is appcaring in Tite Phvsics Teacher:
(u) Vol. 14. p. 393 (Oct. 1976): (b) Vol. 14, p. 485
(Nov.1976):(c)Vol.15.p.37(Jan.1977):(d)Vol.15,p.98(Mar.
1977): (e) Vol. 15. p. 225 (Apr. 1977): (f) Vol. 16, p. 23 (Jan.
1978): (g) Vol. 16. p. 92 (Fcb. 1978): (h) Vol. 16, p. 158
(Mar. 1978). An carly vcrsion of this paper was presented :11
rhe Third Annual UMR­MEC Confercnce on Encrgy, held at
the University of Missouri :11 Rolla. Oct. 12­14, 1976. and
appears in rhc volurne of the Proceedings of lite Co11J,,re11ce.
Thc carly versión. or minor revisions of il havc bccn pub­
lishcd in Nm Ma11 A¡,art publishcd by Friends of thc Eanh:
July / /\ug. 1977. Vol. 7, No. 14 pp. 12­13; The Vermil/inn
Flycmdwr (Tucson. Arizona Audubon Socicty, Deccmbcr
1977); The Colorado 811si11ess Re\lil!11' (Grnd. Sch. of Busi­
ness Admin. of thc Univcrsily of Colorado, Jan I Feb 1978).
Atltl1!1u/11111: Reji!re11ce l Usted 1he refae11ces for 11,e irregu-
lar urfrs of arrides. "TJ,e Ex¡w1,e111ial F1111c1io11" whid1
/1111/ ap¡,ea,wl in Thc Physics Teachcr. T/1ree 111ore tmicle.�
i11 rhis safrs ltm·e a¡,peared i11 Thc Physics Teachcr. ( IX).
\4,/. 17. )1111. 1979. ¡,¡,. 23­24: (X). Vol. 28. Nov. 1990. ¡,p.
5./0­541: (XI). W,I. 14. Se¡,1. 1996. ¡,¡,. 342­343. N11111ber
(XI) rarrh•d 1/w .mb1i1/e: "The Ne111 Fllll Ear1h SocieJy."
2. Ne11·.1week. Dec. 6. 1976.
3. A. /\. Banlcn: Cil'il E11gi1weri11g, Dcc. 1969, p. 71.
4. Time. April 25. 1977. p. 27.
 Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
5. W. Von Engelhardt, J. Goguel, M. King Hubbert, J. E.
Prentice, R.A. Price, and R. Trurnpy; E11viro11111e11tal Geol­
ngy, Vol. 1, 193­206(1976).
6. A. A. Bartlctt, Proceedings of the Tliird A1111ual UMR-
MEC Conference 011 Energy, University of Missouri al Rolla,
Missouri, October 12­14. 1976, p.10.
7. U.S. E11ergy Resources, a Review as of 1972, a background
papcr prepared al Lhe request of the Hon. Henry M. Jackson,
Chairman of the Commiuee on Interior and Insular Affairs of
the United States Senatc, pursuanl to Senaie Resolution 45:
M. King HubberL, A N;uimwl Fuels mu/ Energy Policy Study.
Serial 93-40 (92-75) Pan I (U.S. GPO. Washington, D.C.,
1973). $2.35. 267 pagos. This document is an invaluable source
of data on consumption rates and lrends in consumption. for
bolh the U.S.A. and the world. In it Hubbert also seis forth
thc simple calculus of his methods of analysis. He does not
�onfine his auention solely Lo exponential growth. He pre­
dicts ihar the rate of rise and subsequcnt fall of consumption
of a resource will follow a symmetrical curve that looks like
rhe normal error curve. Severa( figures in this pupcr are re­
drawn from Hubbcrt's paper.
8. L. Ruedisili and M. Firebaugh, Perspectives 011 Energy,
(Oxford University Press, Ncw York, 1975).
9. M. King Hubbert. Resources and Man, National Academy
of Scienccs and National Rescarch Council, (Frecman, San
Francisco. 1969). Chaptcr 8.
10. M. King Hubbert, "Energy Rcsources of the Banh." Sci-
entific American, Sept. 1971, p. 60. Rcprinted as a book (Free­
man. San Francisco, 1971 ).
11. M. lona. Physics Teacher, Vol. 15, p. 324 (1977).
12. Emile Benoit. "Thc Coming Agc of Shonages." Bulletin
of Atomic Scientists, January 1976, p. 7. Benoit attributes his
information 10 David Pimintel et al., "Pood Production and
the Energy Crisis," Science, Vol. 182, p. 448 (Nov. 2, 1973).
This article is thc first of rhrcc by Benoit iBulletin of Atomic
Scientists. Jan .. Fcb .. Mar., 1976.). These are one of ihe best
prescruations I havc read of coming problems of food, fuels,
and resources.
13. Newsweek, Jan. 31, 1977.
14. "Factors Affccting the Use of Coa! in Prescnt and Futurc
Energy Markets" a background papcr prcparcd by The Con­
gressional Research Scrvicc ¡¡1 thc rcqucst of Sen. Henry M.
Jackson, Chairman of thc Commiucc on Interior and Insular
Affairs of the Unitcd Statcs Senatc pursuant 10 Scnate Reso­
lution 45. a National Fuels anti Energy Policy Study Serial
No. 93­9 (92­44) (U.S. GPO. Washington, D.C., 1973) pp, 41,
42.15.
15. "The Energy Crisis" a booklet by thc U.S. Encrgy Re­
scarch and Dcvelopmeru Agcncy (ERDA) Oak Ridgc. Ten­
ncssee, no date. p. 3. ( 1975 or 1976).
Page 21
16. Associated Press story "Energy Head Stresses Coal Re­
serves," in the Boulder Daily Camera, July 5, 1975.
17. "Arnerica's Coal: A Gold Mine of Energy," Exxon Corpo­
ration two­page full­color ad in Newsweek, 1975.
18. "They'rc lrying to tell us something. We're foolish not to
listen," American Electric Power Company. lnc. Two­page ad
in Newsweek, 1975.
19. "Thc call to greater energy independence" American Elec­
trie Power Company. Inc., ad in Newsweek ;
Novembcr 3. 1975.
20. "An open lctter on energy 10 ihose who are still cm­
ployed." American Eleciric Powcr Company, lnc., ad in
Newsweek, Jan. 12, 1976.
21. W. H. Miernyk, Journal of Energy and Development,
Vol. l. No. 2, p. 223 (1976).
22. "The Whalc Oil, Chicken, and Encrgy Syndrorne," an ad­
dress before the Economic Club or Detroit by Walter B.
Wrisron, Chairman, First National City Corporation,
February 25, 1974.
23. "The Transitional S1om1, Part J. An Explanatión," by thc
Edison Electric lnstitute for the Electric Companies, in Broad­
casting, July 26. 1976.
24. Charles O. Frush, "Moral Basis for Mineral Resourcc Use
and Developmcnt Policy" The Mines Magazine, Colorado
School of Mines, March 1973. p. 20.
25. J.C. Fisher, "Physics and the Energy Problern," Physics
Today, American lnstitutc of Physics, Ncw York, 1974.
26. "Opcning Remarks, UMR­MEC Confcrence on Energy," R.
L. Bisplinghoff, Proceedings of rhe Co11Jere11ce, Oct. 7­9. 1975,
University of Missouri at Rolla.
27. Washington Srar, Fcb. 12, 1977.
28. L. G. Hauser, "Crcating 1he Eleclric Energy Economy,"
Pro<'eedings of rhe Second A111111a/ UMR-MEC Conference
011 Energy, Oc1obcr 7­9, 1975, p. 3., University of Missouri at
Rolla.
29. Gil Bailey, "Conscrvation­Devclopment Proposcd As
Solulion,'' Washington Bureau of thc 8011/der Daily Cam-
era, March 13, 1973.
30. Time, May 19, 1975, p. 55.
31. D. Browcr, Nm Man l\lone, Vol. 6, No. 20, November 1976;
Fricnds of lhc Earth, 529 Commercial. San Francisco.
32. C.C. Garvin. Jr., Chairman of the Exxon Corporation; Ful!
pagc ad in the Rocky Mmmtain News, July 23, 1976.

Page 22
33. G. Pazik, in a special editorial fcature, "Our Petroleum
Predicamenr." in Fishing Facts ("The magazine for today's
freshwater fixhcrman''). Northwoods Publishing Co., P.O. Box
609. Mcnomoncc Falls. WI 53051. November 1976. Repri nts
are avuilablc at $0.30 euch from thc publishcr. This is an
excellcnt summary of the prcsent situation and of the way
wc gol into our pcrrotcum prcdicamem.
34. Tlw Arizou« Republic, Fcb. 8. 1978.
3�. "Conscrvation is likc Cholcsterol" an ad copyrightcd 1976
by thc Mobil Oil Corporation.
36. 8011/der Daily Cm11<'r<1. April 4. 1977.
37. Boulder D'1ily Ct1111ert1. May 16. 1977.
38. U.S. News & World Repon, July 25. 1977. p. 8.
39. Boulder Dait» Ctunera, Jufy 10. 1977.
40. Amory Lovins, "Energy Strategy, thc Road Not Takcn."
F11reig11 Affairs, Oct. 1976. This material is now availablc as
a book. Soft E11ergy Paths; Toward a Durable Peace Ballinger,
Cambridge. MA. 1977). lt is said that this book "could very
:.
Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis
well be thc rnost importan! book on energy policy of
this dccade."
41. W. L. Rogers, Special Assistant to the Secretary of the
Interior, quoted in thc Denver Post. November 19. 1976.
42. 1i111e. April 4. 1977, p. 63.
43. Technology Revlew, Dccembcr 1976, p. 21, reprinted in
rhe second edition of Rcf. 8.
44. Roben H. Romer, E11er,:y­A11 lntroduction ro Physics (Free­
man. San Francisco, 1976). pp. 594­597. In addition 10 rnaking
energy thc central rhcme oían iniroductory text, this book has
18 appendiccs (61 pages) of data ranging from
"Units and conversión Iacrors" lo the "History of encrgy pro­
duction and consumption in the world and in thc Unitcd
Statcs" Lo .. Exponcntial growth" to "Consumer priccs oí corn­
mon sources oí cncrgy." The book is at once a text and a
valuablc source oí referencc data.
45. Melvin Laird. "Thc Energy Crisis: Made in U.S.A."
Reader's DiMest, Sept. 1977. p. 56.
46. M. Stanton Evans, Ctear aud Present Dangers, (Harcoun
Brace Jovanovich, New York. 1975).
..
Forgotten FundamenJals of the Energy Crisis
REPRINTINGS
This paper has been rewritten and reprinted many
times in the 20 years since it was first published.
The paper was enlarged and was published in:
Mineral & Energy Resources, Colorado School of Mines.
Golden, Colorado; Part l. Vol. 22. Sept. 1979, pp. 1­46;
Pa11 11, Vol. 22, Nov. 1979, pp. 1­9; Pan 111, Vol. 23, Jan. 1980,
pp.1­10.
Thc cnlargcd versión was also published in the Journal
of Geological Education, Vol. 28, Jan. 1980, pp. 4­35.
Thc papcr was rewriuen as a chapter in the book,
Perspectives 011 E11erKY by L.C. Ruedisili and M.W.
Fircbaugh, Third Edition, Oxford Univcrsity Press, New
York City, 1982.
The paper was reprinted in New Trends in Physics
Teaching, Vol. IV, 1984, pp. 20­37 by the Unired Nations
Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization in
París, France.
Sho11 versions of this paper have been priuted as
cssays in introductory physics textbooks by Halliday &
Page 23
Resnick, Scrway, and Tipler. Other authors of physics
texts have written chapters or scctions in their texts using
these applications of exponential arithrnctic.
The paper has been reprinted in full or abridged in
over 30 diffcrcnt publications or proceedings, and was
translated into Spanish for publication in Mexico.
I adapted che paper to data on energy in Cariada, and
it was publishcd as "Forgouen Fundamentals of the
Energy Crisis: A Canadian Perspective," by the Industrial
Energy Division of the Ministry of Energy, Mines, and
Resources of thc Federal Govemment of Canada, Ouawa,
Canadá, May 1986.
This paper was listed as one of ten "memorable
papers" for the year 1978 that was included in a list of
"Memorable papers from the American Journal of
Pliysics, 1933­1990" R.H. Romer, American Joumal of
Phvsics, Vol. 59, March 1991. p. 205.
The paper was includcd in ihe "Physics Teachers'
CD­ROM Toolkit" published by the University of
Nebraska, 1993.
Page24 Forgotten FlllfdamenJals of thL F.Mrg:: Crisis

About the Author Albert A. Bartlett is Professor
Emeritus of Physics at the University of Colorado in
Boulder. A distinguished and dedicated educator and
widely published author, Dr. Bartlett recentty received the
first George Gamow Memorial Lectura Award in
recognltion of his "most signlficant contribution to the
public's understanding of science." Besides an
illustrious career as a physicist, educator, and activist for
stopping population growth, Dr. Bartlett is perhaps best
known for his lecture, "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy:
The Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis," which
has been given over a thousand limes, including repeat ·
perfonnances to members of Congress at the U.S.
Capitol. NPG is honored to have Dr. Barttett as a member
of our Board of Advisors.
In addition to this report, NPG aJso publishes:
NPG Forums, articles about population, immigration,
natural resouroes, and the environment�
NPG Booknotes, reviews of books we believe deserve our
members' attention;
NPG Footnotes, shorter artlcles on topical issues; and
NPG Posltlon Papers.
Founded in 1972, NPG is a national membership
organization advocating a gradual and voluntary reduction
of wor1d and U.S. populations to more sustainable levels.
We invite you to join. Annual dues are $30 and are tax
deductible to the extent the law allows.

Video copies of Dr. Bartlett's lecture, ·Amhmetic, Population,

and Energy. • are available from University of Colorado
aNPG
Television; lnfonnation Technology Services; Campus Box Negative Population Growth, Inc.
379; Boulder, CO 80309­0379; {303) 492­1857.
2861 Duke Street, Suite 36
Reprinted with permission from The American Journal Alexandria, V A 223 14
of Physics, Volume 46, September 1978, pages 876
to 888. Copyright 1978 American Association of
Voice: (703) 370­951 O
Physics Teachers.
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