Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
Culture Documents
There are frequently occasions in business when changes in one factor appear to be
related in some way to movements in one or several other factors. For example, a
marketing manager may observe that sales increase when there has been a change in
advertising expenditure. The transportation manger notice that as vans and Lorries cover
more miles then the need for maintenance becomes more frequent.
Certain questions that may arise in the mind of the manager or analyst are:
Types of relationships
Variables
Any quantity that can take different values is a variable. For example the heights of
blades of grass and the numbers of people waiting at a bus stop are all variables.
1
Dependent variable: The variable that is being predicted or estimated.
Independent variable: A variable that provides the basis for estimation. It is the predictor
variable.
e.g 1 The area of a circle, A r 2 , where r represents radius.
The independent variable is radius, r and the dependent variable is area, A.
e.g 2 The Bradford Electric Illuminating Company is studying the relationship between
kilowatt-hours (thousands) and the number of rooms in a private single – family
residence.
The independent variable is the number of rooms and the dependent variable is
kilowatt-hours.
Correlation
It is a statistical tool used to measure the strength of the relationship between 2 or more
variables. Two measure of correlation are:
e.g The Bradford Electric Illuminating Company is studying the relationship between
kilowatt-hours (thousands) and the number of rooms in a private single – family
residence.
The independent variable is the number of rooms and the dependent variable is
kilowatt-hours.
In this study Bradford Electric Illuminating Company may want to find out the
strength and the direction of the relationship between the two variables, the number
of rooms and kilowatt-hours.
n�XY - �X �Y
n�X 2 - ( �X ) �
� n�Y 2 - ( �Y ) �
�
2 2
� �� �
2
COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION “r2”
This is the square of the correlation coefficient. It measures the proportion of the total
variation in y which is accounted for by changes in the value of x.
e xp lained var iation
r2
total var iation
Measures the proportion of the total variation in Y is not accounted for by changes in X.
Un exp lained Variation
1- r2
Total Variation
Example
The manger of a company with ten operating plants of similar size producing small
components have observed the following pattern of expenditure on inspection and
defective parts delivered to the customer.
1 25 50
2 30 35
3 15 60
4 75 15
5 40 46
6 65 20
7 45 28
8 24 45
9 35 42
10 70 22
3
Managers are wondering how strong the relationship is between Inspection Expenditure
and the Number of Faulty items delivered and to what extent they may predict the
number of faulty parts delivered from knowledge of expenditure on inspection.
Find:
SOLUTION
Observation X Y X2 Y2 XY
1 25 50 625 2500 1250
2 30 35 900 1225 1050
3 15 60 225 3600 900
4 75 15 5625 225 1125
5 40 46 1600 2116 1840
6 65 20 4225 400 1300
7 45 28 2025 784 1260
8 24 45 576 2025 1080
9 35 42 1225 1764 1470
10 70 22 4900 484 1540
n = 10 �X 424 �Y 363 �X 2
21,926 �Y 2
15,123 �XY 12,815
n�XY - �X �Y
(i) r
n�X 2 - ( �X ) ��
� n �Y 2 - ( �Y ) �
2 2
� �� �
10 �12815 - 424 ( 363)
( 10 �21,926 - 424 ) ( 10 �15,123 - 363 )
2 2
128,150 - 153,912
( 21,9260 - 179, 766 ) ( 15,1230 -131, 768 )
-25, 762
39, 484 �19, 461
-25, 762
27, 719.99502
-0.93
4
Equation of a straight line y = a + bx
y is the dependent variable ( one which depends on a next variable for its value or
assignment)
x is the independent variable ( one which does not depend on another variable for
its value)
b is the gradient which is constant
a is the intercept on the y axis which is constant.
n�x y - �x �y
b a
�y - b�x or a Y - bX
n�x - ( �x )
2 2
n
n 10 �X 424 �Y 363 �X 2
21,926 �Y 2
15,123 �x Y 12,815
n�XY - �X �Y
b
n�X 2 - ( �X )
2
-25, 762
b
39, 484
-0.65 ( to 2 d . p.)
b
�Y - b�X
n
363 - ( -0.65 �424 )
b
10
638.6
63.86
10
Y 63.86 - 0.65 X - line of best fit
INTERPRETATION OF a
If x is equal to 0 then y = a.
In this case a = 63.86
If inspection expenditure (per 1000 units) were equal to 0 ($), the number of defective
parts (per 1000 units) delivered would be 63.86.
INTERPRETATION OF b
This is the square of the correlation coefficient. It measures the proportion of the total
variation in y which is accounted for by changes in the value of x.
e xp lained var iation
r2
total var iation
In this case r = - 0.93: r2 = 0.8649
5
r2 = 0.86
INTERPRETATION:- 86% of the variation the amount of defective parts ( per 1000)
delivered is due to changes in the inspection expenditure (per 1000 units).
Measures the proportion of the total variation in Y is not accounted for by changes in X.
Un exp lained Variation
1- r2
Total Variation
In this case = 1- 0.86 = 0.14, 14% of the variation in Y is not caused by changes in X.
The manager wishes to know the likely number of defects if $50 (per 1000 unit) was
spent on inspection.
Y = 63.97 – 0.65x (“line of best fit”)
When X = 50 Y = 63.86 – 0.65 (50) = 31.36
Thus the manager would conclude that, on average 31.36 defects (per 1000) would be
delivered if $50(per 1000) was on inspection
Provides a measure of the association between two sets of ranked or ordered data
-1 �R �1
Example
The table below gives the scores obtained by 10 students in two different subjects.
X Y
25 50
30 35
15 60
75 15
40 46
65 20
45 28
24 45
35 42
70 22
Find the rank correlation coefficient (or Spearman rank correlation coefficient).
SOLUTION
6
X Rank X Y Rank Y d d2
25
30 3 50 9 -6 36
15 4 35 5 -1 1
75 1 60 10 -9 81
40 10 15 1 9 81
65 6 46 8 -2 4
45 8 20 2 6 36
24 7 28 4 3 9
35 2 45 7 -5 25
70 5 42 6 -1 1
9 22 3 6 36
�d 2 310
6 �d 2
R 1-
n ( n 2 - 1)
6 �310
R 1-
10 ( 10 2 - 1)
1,860
1-
990
= 1 – 1.88
= - 0.88