15 October 2019

Market snapshot Today’s top research idea

Equities - India Close Chg .% CYTD.% Hindustan Unilever: Earnings momentum strong,
Sensex 38,214 0.2 6.0 reinforcing investment case further
Nifty-50 11,341 0.3 4.4
 Reported net sales grew 6.7% YoY to INR98.5b. EBITDA of INR24.4b rose 21%
Nifty-M 100 15,593 0.2 -12.8
YoY (16% on comparable basis), while PAT (bei) rose 20.4% YoY to INR18.3b
Equities-Global Close Chg .% CYTD.%
S&P 500 2,966 -0.1 18.3
(est. INR16.1b). Note that HUVR has started utilizing corporate tax benefits
Nasdaq 8,049 -0.1 21.3 from 2QFY20 itself. Domestic consumer biz sales rose 7% YoY, led by
FTSE 100 7,213 -0.5 7.2 underlying volume growth of 5% YoY (est. 6%). Gross margin expanded by
DAX 12,487 -0.2 18.3 250bp YoY to 54.5% and EBITDA margin by 290bp YoY.
Hang Seng 10,508 0.5 3.8  Revenue was in line, while margin surprised yet again. Once we incorporate
Nikkei 225 21,799 0.0 8.9 GSKCH merger (final approvals awaited), there could be 8-9% addition to EPS
Commodities Close Chg .% CYTD.% in FY21, which means HUVR trades at ~45.3x FY21E v/s 49.4x as it appears
Brent (US$/Bbl) 59 -2.1 11.4 now.
Gold ($/OZ) 1,493 0.3 16.4  Best-of-breed earnings visibility and by far highest return ratios justify
Cu (US$/MT) 5,786 0.4 -2.7 premium valuations. On a target multiple of 50x Sep’21E EPS, we derive TP of
Almn (US$/MT) 1,709 -0.5 -8.2 INR2,265.
Currency Close Chg .% CYTD.%
USD/INR 71.2 0.3 2.1 Research covered
USD/EUR 1.1 -0.1 -3.8
Cos/Sector Key Highlights
USD/JPY 108.4 0.1 -1.2
YIELD (%) Close 1MChg CYTDchg Hindustan Unilever Earnings momentum strong, reinforcing investment case further
10 Yrs G-Sec 6.5 -0.03 -0.9 Delta Corp In-line performance; multifold expansion in online margin
10 Yrs AAA Corp 7.5 -0.02 -1.0 EcoScope CPI inflation hits 4% mark in Sep’19
Flows (USD b) 14-Oct MTD CYTD Cement Demand weakness persists; prices decline further in south, east
FIIs 0.13 -0.61 7.42
DIIs -0.06 0.59 7.20 Piping hot news
Volumes (INRb) 14-Oct MTD* CYTD* Retail inflation soars to 14-month high on higher food prices
Cash 367 382 364
India’s retail inflation sharply accelerated in September to a 14-month high at
F&O 8,529 15,513 12,274
3.99%, almost touching the central bank’s medium-term target of 4%, as food
Note: *Average
inflation nearly doubled to 5.1%. The high retail inflation could limit …

Chart of the Day: Ecoscope (CPI inflation hits 4% mark in Sep’19)

CPI inflation at 14-month high in Sep’19… …and at four-quarter high of 3.5% in 2QFY20

* Excluding F&B and F&L Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO), MOFSL

Research Team (Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com)

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

1 2
Bhushan Power sale to JSW
Steel halted in test for
bankruptcy law
A bankruptcy appeals court on
Monday halted the transfer of
Bhushan Power and Steel Ltd
(BPSL) to JSW Steel Ltd and
stayed the Enforcement
Directorate’s (ED) move to
attach assets of the insolvent
steel maker, scuttling hopes of a
swift resolution of the …
3 4
New group insolvency
framework in the works
A working group under the
insolvency regulator has
recommended a group
insolvency framework to allow
for consolidated insolvency
proceedings for multiple
companies which are part of the
same group. A report, authored
by a working group led by former
Sebi chairman UK Sinha, noted
that consolidated or coordinated
insolvency proceedings may…
6 7
ExxonMobil ties up with
IndianOil to expand natural
gas availability
ExxonMobil India LNG Ltd has
signed a Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU) with Indian
Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) to spread
the reach of natural gas beyond
existing pipeline networks. The
MoU is part of ExxonMobil’s efforts
to further expanding its Liquefied
Natural Gas (LNG) business in India.
15 October 2019
In the news today
Kindly click on textbox for the detailed news link
Spectrum price reform in the works: Telecom minister Ravi
Shankar Prasad
Inaugurating the annual India Mobile Congress on Monday, Telecom
Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad said the Centre was considering “pricing
reforms in the sector”, possibly hinting at making the upcoming
spectrum auction, especially in the 5G band, more attractive to the
industry. Telecom operators, battling financial stress, have for long
voiced their protest against the high base price of 5G spectrum. Most
telcos are planning not to bid for 5G unless the government reviews
the price.
Kerala-based CSB Bank gets
Sebi’s go-ahead for IPO
Kerala-based CSB Bank, formerly
known as Catholic Syrian Bank,
has received Sebi’s go-ahead to
float an initial public offering.
The private sector lender, which 5
filed draft papers with the
markets regulator in August, Securitisation of assets by
received its observations on NBFCs and mortgage lenders
October 1, latest update with the surge 48% in the first half of
Securities and Exchange Board of the fiscal year
India (Sebi) showed. … Securitisation of assets by non-
banking finance companies and
mortgage lenders surged as much
as 48% in the first half of the
fiscal year as they raised funds
selling assets when credit
Total, RIL unlikely to bid for
markets turned risk averse. The
BPCL; BP wants to see whats on
volume grew to Rs 1 lakh crore as
offer both established and new
French energy giant Total SA as originators flocked to the
well as oil-to-telecom securitization market to raise
conglomerate Reliance Industries resources profile in a challenging
are unlikely to bid for acquiring financing environment, rating
India's second biggest oil refining company Crisil said in report.
and marketing company BPCL,
while UK's BP plc said it wants to
see what is on offer before
deciding to bid. …
2
 14 October 2019
Q2FY20 Results Update | Sector: Consumer

Hindustan Unilever
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
38,214 11,341
CMP: INR2,015 TP: INR2,265(+12%) Buy
Bloomberg HUVR IN Earnings momentum strong, reinforcing investment case further
Equity Shares (m) 2,165
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 4361.4 / 61.3
 Reported net sales grew 6.7% YoY to INR98.5b (our estimate: INR98.8b).
52-Week Range (INR) 2102 / 1500 EBITDA rose 21% YoY to INR24.4b (16% on a comparable basis after adjusting
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 9/19/18 for Ind-AS 116; our estimate: +14.4% to INR23.1b), while PAT (bei) was up
12M Avg Val (INR M) 2706
20.4% YoY to INR18.3b (our estimate: INR16.1b). In contrast to our expectation,
Free float (%) 32.8
the company has started utilizing the corporate tax benefits from 2QFY20 itself,
leading to a sharp PAT beat. Domestic consumer business sales were up 7%
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
Y/E Mar 2019 2020E 2021E YoY, led by underlying volume growth of 5% YoY (our estimate: 6%).
Net Sales 382.2 408.9 466.3  Gross margins stood at 54.5%, while the EBITDA margin expanded 290bp
EBITDA 86.4 100.6 120.3 YoY to 24.8% – up 210bp YoY adjusted for Ind-AS 116 and 50bp adjusted for the
PAT 62.6 71.9 88.4 impact of government grants. Notably, HUVR delivered a margin improvement
EPS (INR) 28.9 33.2 40.8
despite a 20bp YoY/70bp QoQ increase in ad spend.
Gr. (%) 18.2 14.8 22.9
BV/Sh (INR) 35.4 36.8 39.2  Segmental performance: Revenue was up 9.4% YoY at Home Care (34% of
RoE (%) 85.0 92.0 107.4 sales) and 5.3% YoY at Personal Care. Food & Refreshments (19% of sales) sales
RoCE (%) 119.1 127.3 146.4 were up 8.4% YoY. Margin expanded 150bp YoY in Home Care and 260bp YoY
P/E (x) 69.6 60.7 49.4 in Personal Care, but shrank 140bp YoY in F&R.
P/BV (x) 56.9 54.8 51.4
 Key concall highlights: (1) Rural growth was 0.5x urban for the sector in
2QFY20. (2) Prices were reduced by 4-6% in mass end personal wash products
Estimate change
in 2QFY20, and a similar reduction is likely to be taken in premium products like
TP change
Rating change Dove and Pears in 3QFY20. On a net basis, ~3% effective price reduction is
likely in 2Q and 3Q across soap brands.
 Valuation and view: Revenue was in line, while the margin surprised yet again.
Once we incorporate the GSKCH merger (final approvals awaited), there could
be 8-9% addition to EPS in FY21, which means that the stock is trading at
~45.3xFY21 v/s 49.4x as it appears currently. Given its best-of-breed earnings
visibility and by far highest return ratios, the premium valuations are justified.
On a target multiple of 50x Sep’21E EPS, we derive a TP of INR2,265.
Quarterly performance (Standalone) (INR Million)
Y/E March FY19 FY20 Est.
Var.
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3QE 4QE FY19 FY20E 2QE
Domestic volume growth (%) 12.0 10.0 10.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 6.0 6.0
Net sales 94,870 92,340 95,580 99,450 1,01,140 98,520 1,01,763 1,07,459 3,82,240 4,08,882 98,785 -0.3%
YoY change (%) 11.2 11.1 11.3 9.3 6.6 6.7 6.5 8.1 10.7 7.0 7.0
Gross Profit 51,230 47,990 51,400 52,020 54,660 53,670 55,983 57,390 2,02,640 2,21,703 52,763
Margin % 54.0 52.0 53.8 52.3 54.0 54.5 55.0 53.4 53.0 54.2 53.4
EBITDA 22,510 20,190 20,460 23,210 26,470 24,430 23,207 26,477 86,370 1,00,585 23,107 5.7%
YoY change (%) 20.6 20.0 21.8 13.3 17.6 21.0 13.4 14.1 18.7 16.5 14.4
Margins (%) 23.7 21.9 21.4 23.3 26.2 24.8 22.8 24.6 22.6 24.6 23.4
Depreciation 1,270 1,300 1,330 1,340 2,140 2,370 2,155 1,938 5,240 8,602 2,145
Interest 70 70 70 70 240 310 240 170 280 960 240
Other income 1,350 3,050 1,060 1,180 1,470 1,800 2,014 2,162 6,640 7,446 2,013
PBT 22,520 21,870 20,120 22,980 25,560 23,550 22,827 26,532 87,490 98,469 22,735 3.6%
Tax 6,640 6,270 5,060 6,890 8,080 4,600 6,163 7,743 24,860 26,587 6,593
Rate (%) 29.5 28.7 25.1 30.0 31.6 19.5 27.0 29.2 28.4 27.0 29.0
PAT bei 15,670 15,220 14,010 15,900 17,510 18,320 16,664 19,189 62,630 71,882 16,142 13.5%
YoY change (%) 21.3 23.1 16.9 12.8 11.7 20.4 18.9 20.7 18.2 14.8 6.1
Reported Profit 15,290 15,250 14,440 15,380 17,550 18,480 16,664 19,189 60,360 71,882 16,142
E: MOFSL Estimates

15 October 2019 3
 RESULTS
14 October 2019
FLASH Results Flash | Sector: Others

Delta Corp
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
38,214 11,341
CMP: INR171 TP: INR247 (+45%) Buy
Conference Call Details In-line performance; multifold expansion in online margin
th
Date: 15 October 2019
Time: 3:30pm IST  DELTA’s revenue declined 2% YoY to INR2,008m (our estimate: INR2,059) in
Dial-in details: 2QFY20, primarily led by Hospitality (-29% YoY). Casino business revenue
+91 22 6280 1149 too declined marginally by 1% YoY.
 EBIDTA stood at INR814m (our estimate: INR772m), with the margin
expanding 300bp YoY to 40.5% YoY (our estimate: 37.5%), largely driven by
a significant improvement in Online gaming (EBIT margin up 2,150bp YoY).
Financials & Valuations (INR b)
 PBT was down 3% YoY to INR748m (our estimate: INR715m).
Y/E Mar 2019 2020E 2021E
8.0 8.4 9.7
 Adj. PAT grew 8% YoY to INR585m, above our estimate of INR540m due to a
Net Sales
EBITDA 3.2 3.3 3.9 lower tax rate of 22% (our estimate: 25%).
NP 1.9 2.2 2.7  For 1HFY20, cash flow from operations stood at INR1,485m, which is 100%
EPS (INR) 7.2 8.3 9.9 of EBITDA for the same period.
EPS Gr. (%) 23.8 15.6 19.3
BV/Sh. (INR) 71.7 79.4 88.8 Segmental performance
RoE (%) 10.7 11.0 11.7  Casino gaming revenue declined 1% YoY to INR2,002m in 2QFY20, while the
RoCE (%) 11.0 15.1 16.2 EBIT margin contracted 370bp YoY to 33% YoY.
P/E (x) 23.9 20.6 17.3
 Online gaming revenues increased 17% YoY, while the EBIT margin
P/BV (x) 2.4 2.2 1.9
expanded significantly by 2,150bp YoY to 31%.
 Hospitality segment revenue was down 29% YoY to INR117m. The segment
reported an EBIT loss of INR85m.

Consolidated - Quarterly Earnings Model

Y/E March FY19 FY20E FY19 FY20E Var
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3QE 4QE 2QE %
Net Sales 1,873 2,011 2,052 2,043 1,865 2,008 2,227 2,280 7,978 8,430 2,059 -2
YoY Change (%) 46% 38% 27% 19% 0% 0% 9% 12% 31.3 5.7
Total Expenditure 1,206 1,225 1,197 1,164 1,188 1,195 1,325 1,357 4,791 5,150 1,287
EBITDA 667 786 855 879 677 814 902 923 3,187 3,279 772 5
Margins (%) 35.6 39.1 41.7 43.0 36.3 40.5 40.5 40.5 39.9 38.9 37.5 301bp
Depreciation 94 94 95 95 110 120 115 115 377 450 112
Interest 2 7 6 3 10 11 10 10 18 40 10
Other Income 83 83 55 92 82 65 62 62 313 270 65
PBT before EO exp. 654 768 810 875 640 748 839 860 3,105 3,059 715 5
Extra-Ord expense 0 0 11 -37 0 -7 0 0 -43 0 0
PBT 654 768 799 911 640 755 839 860 3,148 3,059 715
Tax 228 274 296 344 217 166 210 215 1,141 826 179
Rate (%) 34.9 35.6 37.0 37.8 33.9 22.0 25.0 25.0 36.3 27.0 25.0
MI & P/L of Asso. Cos. -3 4 2 0 2 2 4 2 39 -11 4
Reported PAT 423 498 505 567 425 590 633 647 1,968 2,244 540
Adj PAT 423 498 512 544 425 585 633 647 1,940 2,244 540 8
YoY Change (%) 100% 15% 14% 19% 0% 17% 24% 19% 25.3 15.6 12%
Margins (%) 22.6 24.8 24.9 26.6 22.8 29.1 28.4 28.4 24.3 26.6 26.2 288bp
E: MOFSL Estimates

15 October 2019 4
 14 October 2019

ECOSCOPE
The Economy Observer
CPI inflation hits 4% mark in Sep’19
Subdued GDP growth could mean at best another rate cut in Dec'19

 Retail inflation came in at 4.0% in Sep’19, higher than our forecast and consensus of 3.8%. With this, CPI
inflation stands at 3.5% for 2QFY20 versus 3.9% in the year-ago period and 3.1% in the previous quarter.
Also, CPI inflation for Aug’19 has been revised to 3.3% from 3.2%.
 Food inflation stood at 5.1% in Sep’19 compared to 3.0% a month ago and our forecast of 4.2%. Almost all
items within food, except ‘sugar and confectionary’ and ‘prepared meals, snacks, sweets etc.,’ exhibited
higher inflation in the month, the highest being in vegetables.
 As against our expectation of 4.4%, core inflation (all items excluding ‘food & beverages’, ‘pan, tobacco &
intoxicants’ and ‘fuel & light’) decelerated to a three-month low of 4.2% in Sep’19.
 Inflation in ‘core services’ hit an 18-month low of 4.8% in Sep’19 from 5.0% a month ago, driven by lower
inflation across services, except education where it was unchanged at 6.2%.
 Although inflation hit 4% in Sep'19, subdued economic activity in 2QFY20 may prompt the RBI to cut the
repo rate one more time in the Dec'19 monetary policy meeting. Beyond that, however, we do not expect
any other rate cut. We expect headline inflation to average ~4.6-4.7% in 2HFY20 and ~3.9% in FY20.

I. Retail inflation at 14-month high

 CPI inflation exceeds our estimate…: Retail inflation came in at 4.0% in Sep’19,
higher than our forecast and consensus of 3.8%. With this, CPI inflation stands at
3.5% for 2QFY20 versus 3.9% in the year-ago period and 3.1% in the previous
quarter. Also, CPI inflation for Aug’19 has been revised to 3.3% from 3.2%.
 …entirely driven by food inflation: Food inflation stood at 5.1% in Sep’19
compared to 3.0% a month ago and our forecast of 4.2%. Almost all items within
food, except ‘sugar and confectionary’ and ‘prepared meals, snacks, sweets
etc.,’ exhibited higher inflation in the month (Exhibit 2). While inflation in
‘cereals and products’ inched up to an 11-month high of 1.7%, that in
‘vegetables’ increased to a 19-month high of 15.4%. These two items constitute
~12% weight in food, which in turn has ~39% weight in the CPI basket. ‘Fruits’,
which had been in deflation since the past nine months, also posted inflation of
0.8% in Sep’19. Inflation in other major items like ‘milk and products’, ‘oil and
fats’ and ‘pulses and products’ rose to 1.8%/1.2%/8.4% from 1.5%/0.6%/6.9% in
the previous month.
 Core inflation at three-month low: Core inflation fell to 4.2% (our estimate:
4.4%) from 4.3% a month ago, as other categories of inflation like ‘pan, tobacco
and intoxicants’, ‘clothing and footwear’, ‘housing’, ‘fuel and light’ and
‘miscellaneous’ posted lower inflation compared to Aug’19. In fact, ‘fuel and
light’ continued being in deflation for the third consecutive month (Exhibit 3).
 ‘Core services’ inflation decelerating for nine months now: Inflation in ‘core
services’ decelerated to an 18-month low of 4.8% in Sep’19 from 5.0% a month
ago (Exhibit 4), driven by lower inflation across services (household, health,
transport and communication, recreation, personal care), except education
where it was unchanged at 6.2%.

15 October 2019 5

All-India prices increased 5% YoY
in October 2019
Refer to our earlier note
15 October 2019
Sector Update | 14 October 2019
Cement
Demand weakness persists; prices decline further in south, east
Near-term pricing outlook bleak
 According to our recent channel checks, cement demand remains weak across India,
limiting the possibility of a price hike over the near term.
 After rising sharply earlier in the year, all-India cement prices have corrected ~9%
since May and are now up by only ~5% YoY owing to the continued price decline in
south and east. On a YoY basis, prices are down ~1% in east, flat in south and up by a
marginal 4% in west. However, the pricing trends are impressive in the north (up
~11%) and central (up ~13% YoY) regions.
 We nevertheless believe that the sharp reduction in energy costs will likely cushion
the negative impact on industry margins over the near term, as both petcoke and
imported coal prices have corrected sharply.
Demand recovery hopes pushed ahead
 The near-term cement demand outlook remains weak due to liquidity
constraints, strained balance sheets of contractors (limiting ability to execute
new orders) and general weakness in trade demand.
 The September quarter was adversely impacted by heavy rains and flooding in
various parts of India. In fact, September this year witnessed highest rains in the
last 100 years.
 The muted demand trend (down 2-3% in 1HFY20) is likely to continue into the
December quarter. Demand recovery, if any, is likely to manifest only in 4QFY20
as liquidity constraints are seen easing by then. With pressures faced for most
part of the year, demand growth is estimated at only 1% in FY20.
South: Subdued demand leads to roll back of price hikes
 Demand in south India declined sharply in Sep’19 due to heavy rainfall, with
volumes in Andhra Pradesh (AP) and Telangana declining by as much as 40%
YoY. Cancellation of a few projects by the new AP government has also taken a
toll on demand.
 While a sharp price hike of up to INR50/bag was announced in the region in
early September, all of it had to be rolled back due to weak demand. As a result,
prices were cut in various southern states in October (by INR10/bag in Chennai
and INR10-15/bag in Hyderabad). Prices in south are down 3.5% MoM and flat
YoY. Excluding AP and Telangana (where prices have declined by 10% YoY),
prices are still up 3% YoY in other states of south India.
East: Upcoming capacities to keep pricing under check
 Demand in West Bengal has been affected over the past 15 days on account of
the Durga Puja festival. Next few weeks too are likely to be slow in the run up to
Diwali.
 After declining by 4% MoM in Sep’19, prices in east are down by another 3%
MoM in Oct’19. While dealers have been sounded off over the last few days
about the possibility of an INR10-15/bag price hike in east, our checks suggest
that these have not been into effect yet. Prices in east are down 1% YoY.
6
  Our industry capacity database indicates that capacity in east will increase by
~25% over the next 18 months, which, in our view, will keep prices under check.

North and central pricing remains strong, but hikes unlikely over the near
term due to the festive season
 North/central remain the best performing regions with prices up ~11%/~13%
YoY and flat MoM in Oct’19. Non-trade price, which corrected by 4-5% in Aug’19
in these regions, increased again in the subsequent month despite weak
demand, indicating strong production discipline.
 Prices in west have declined by ~1% MoM in Oct’19, but are up ~4% YoY led by
Gujarat (up ~9% YoY). Prices in Maharashtra, however, are down ~2% YoY.
 Our channel checks indicate that the industry is attempting a price hike of INR5-
10/bag (3-5%) in the west, north and central regions. We, however, believe that
this is unlikely to happen given the seasonally weak demand period before
Diwali wherein the industry practice is to offer discounts to push volumes.

Lower energy price to reduce operating costs for industry

 Currently, imported coal price is down by 40% YoY and imported petcoke price
by 29% YoY. Diesel price has also declined by 9% YoY.
 We expect lower energy prices to help companies report savings in power & fuel
costs in the subsequent quarters, which should cushion the adverse impact on
margins from lower cement prices.

Valuation and view

 We remain structurally positive on the Indian cement sector due to expectations
of limited new capacity addition (~4% CAGR over FY19-22), which should result
in improving utilization assuming a normalized demand CAGR of 5-6%. In terms
of regions, we prefer north and central where utilization is likely to improve to
~85% over the next two years, supporting prices.
 We prefer companies that are moving down the cost curve and provide
valuation comfort. UltraTech thus is our top large-cap pick, followed by ACC. JK
Cement is our top mid-cap pick.

Cement: Valuation summary

CMP Target Price ROE (%) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Ton (USD)
RECO
(INR) (INR) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E
ACC 1,443 Buy 1,910 10.1 12.6 12.5 27.0 19.3 17.5 11.6 9.0 7.5 99 92 85
ACEM 189 Neutral 220 5.9 7.1 7.5 19.8 15.8 14.6 10.4 8.3 7.4 92 89 85
UTCEM 4,076 Buy 4,920 8.9 11.6 12.9 45.6 30.7 23.1 19.7 13.7 11.3 189 164 152
SRCM 18,368 Neutral 21,000 12.2 14.8 17.9 56.7 42.4 30.5 22.5 16.9 13.7 230 197 178
BCORP 523 Buy 740 5.8 8.0 10.0 15.8 10.8 8.1 7.0 5.5 4.7 60 62 57
DALBHARA 781 Buy 1,030 2.9 3.5 4.6 49.5 40.5 29.6 9.2 7.2 6.0 95 85 65
ICEM 86 Neutral 85 1.3 3.2 3.4 36.3 14.7 13.6 9.0 6.8 6.4 50 48 48
JKCE 1,040 Buy 1,270 11.3 15.2 13.9 30.5 18.3 17.7 10.4 9.0 7.8 96 86 83
JKLC 284 Buy 388 5.3 12.0 13.8 42.1 17.5 13.6 9.3 6.4 5.2 43 41 37
TRCL 719 Neutral 740 12.1 12.7 12.8 32.9 28.3 25.1 17.2 14.8 14.1 145 125 138
ORCMNT 86 Buy 107 4.6 10.7 10.2 36.9 14.9 14.3 9.3 6.0 5.5 51 45 42
PRISM 78 Buy 110 14.5 14.8 14.2 25.1 21.9 20.2 8.9 7.8 7.3 54 53 51
SNGI 49 Buy 70 3.2 7.0 5.1 25.4 10.9 14.2 12.3 8.7 6.7 49 46 36

15 October 2019 7
 In conversation

1. IRCTC : EXPECT ADDITIONAL RS 300 CRORE IN FY20 FROM

INTERNET TICKETING; Mahendra Pratap Mall, Chairman
 Entering into new business segments like train operations as new opportunities
are opening up.
 The first train under company's operations has already started on the Delhi-
Lucknow route. The second train on the same route will start operating by the
first week of December.
 Company earned almost 55 percent of revenue from the catering segment in
the fiscal year 2019, 24 percent from tourism, 11 percent from internet ticketing
and about 9-10 prcent from Rail Neer.
 However, this year it’s going to change because of the imposition of service
charge and perhaps internet ticketing will come at number two. So situation and
distribution matrix may change.
 In catering, company has almost a margin of 15 percent, tourism is about 10
percent, Rail Neer is about 12-13 percent and have to see for internet ticketing
because so far it was about 30-40 percent but with the imposition of service
charge, convenience fee company has to work out.
 Company will get an additional Rs 300 crore in FY20 from internet ticketing.

15 October 2019 8
 From the think tank

1. THE CLUES HELD BY TWO RBI REPORTS AND A DOWNGRADE

 As September rolled into October, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released two
interesting reports that offer some insights into the central bank’s thinking
about the entrenched economic slowdown. While RBI staff has stopped short of
prescribing a solution to overcome the near-stagnation in economic growth,
both reports leave enough clues around. Combine these with a recent rating
action and there are ample lessons on how not to aggravate the slowdown. The
first report, the central bank’s annual publication on state finances, was
released on 30 September. The study provides an interesting counterpoint to
popular perceptions of state profligacy: the combined gross fiscal deficit (GFD)
of all states is within the limits prescribed by the Fiscal Responsibility and
Budget Management Act (FRBM). Revised estimates for 2018-19 put the
combined GFD at 2.9%, within the stipulated 3% of gross domestic product
(GDP) threshold. In fact, the combined GFD over the past five years (2014-2019)
has averaged 2.5%, excluding liabilities under the Ujwal Discom Assurance
Yojana. But these numbers are deceptive and hide a rather unfortunate trend.
States have managed to stay within the FRBM cap by deferring critical
development expenditure, especially capital expenditure. At the same time,
most states have increased their indebtedness with the cumulative debt-to-GDP
ratio rising to 25% over the past five years, indicating that the bulk of the
spending is focused on revenue expenditure.

2. FOR LITHIUM ION BATTERIES TO PAVE THE WAY FOR A

RECHARGEABLE INDIA
 It is hard to know how many members of the committees that decide various
Nobel prizes have personal experience of the inventions they often indirectly
honour. But I am sure every single member of the Royal Swedish Academy of
Sciences, which selected John B. Goodenough, M. Stanley Whittingham and
Akira Yoshino as this year’s Chemistry laureates, uses lithium-ion batteries.
While the Academy gave in to a little hyperbole when it declared “they created
a rechargeable world", it was nevertheless on the mark in saying that “lithium-
ion batteries have revolutionised our lives since they first entered the market in
1991. They have laid the foundation of a wireless, fossil fuel-free society, and
are of the greatest benefit to humankind." As an engineer designing mobile
communication devices in the mid-1990s, I recall struggling with the battery
dilemma. Higher data rates and bigger display screens demanded more battery
power, but the Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH) batteries I was working with then
were big, heavy and slow to charge. While Moore’s Law applied to microchips,
which became faster, smaller and cheaper over time, battery performance
would change more slowly. Our devices would be big, bulky and heavy. Slow
charging cycles meant that we had to provide our mobile phones with an extra
battery with an external charger, which would be left to charge while the device
was being used. The lithium-ion battery dramatically changed the scene.

15 October 2019 9
 3. FINANCING THE GREEN TRANSITION
 Four years after world leaders signed the Paris climate agreement and adopted
the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs), the global environmental crisis shows every sign of worsening. Polar ice
and glaciers are melting at an accelerating rate. Greenhouse-gas emissions are
increasing. The Amazon and Indonesian rainforests are burning, and climate
catastrophes such as typhoons, tornadoes, and floods are intensifying, with dire
consequences for entire populations. Why has the world strayed so far from its
collective roadmap toward sustainable growth? Over the past decade, climate
action has mainly involved praising businesses and governments that adopt
“green” practices while naming and shaming those that maintain “brown”
policies. But this is not enough. We must fundamentally rethink how to create a
more sustainable world. The financial sector will need to play a leading role in
scaling up green initiatives, de-risking projects for investors, and optimizing
funding costs. And, given the integrated nature of sustainable growth, financial
institutions must work more closely with national and local governments,
regulators, businesses, NGOs, and citizens. To that end, the banking sector,
including central banks, recently established the Principles for Responsible
Banking and the Network for Greening the Financial System. These platforms,
along with the Principles for Responsible Investment that were adopted in 2006,
can be the basis for financial initiatives that make all economic actors more
sustainable.

15 October 2019 10
 Click excel icon
for detailed Valuation snapshot
valuation guide

CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
Automobiles
Amara Raja Buy 685 786 15 28.3 34.5 37.6 2.6 22.0 8.8 19.8 18.2 3.1 2.8 16.7 16.2
Ashok Ley. Buy 68 88 30 6.9 2.0 3.4 16.4 -70.8 66.9 33.6 20.1 2.4 2.4 7.2 12.0
Bajaj Auto Neutral 2956 3028 2 165.4 167.0 184.0 9.3 0.9 10.2 17.7 16.1 3.6 3.2 21.1 21.0
Bharat Forge Buy 431 523 21 22.2 19.5 24.0 20.3 -12.1 23.3 22.1 17.9 3.4 3.0 16.1 17.7
Bosch Neutral 13364 13956 4 541.9 437.4 541.3 15.3 -19.3 23.7 30.5 24.7 5.0 4.3 15.2 18.8
CEAT Buy 934 1117 20 66.9 57.1 69.9 4.6 -14.7 22.4 16.4 13.4 1.3 1.2 8.1 9.2
Eicher Mot. Buy 18311 20486 12 813.9 630 854 1.8 -22.6 35.6 29.1 21.4 4.9 4.1 17.9 20.8
Endurance Tech. Buy 988 1121 13 36.2 38.9 44.5 24.5 7.5 14.4 25.4 22.2 4.7 4.1 19.9 19.8
Escorts Neutral 612 656 7 53.2 52.8 57.0 34.7 -0.8 8.0 11.6 10.7 1.8 1.5 16.2 15.2
Exide Ind Buy 185 242 31 9.1 10.8 11.8 10.6 19.7 9.0 17.0 15.6 2.4 2.2 14.0 13.8
Hero Moto Neutral 2609 2556 -2 169.5 140.1 161.6 -8.5 -17.3 15.3 18.6 16.1 3.9 3.6 21.3 23.2
M&M Buy 569 653 15 42.7 32.0 36.6 4.1 -25.1 14.4 17.8 15.5 1.8 1.6 11.4 10.5
Mahindra CIE Buy 146 219 50 14.5 14.3 16.6 48.6 -1.5 16.0 10.2 8.8 1.1 1.0 11.9 12.2
Maruti Suzuki Buy 6820 7100 4 247.7 151.2 246.1 -7.1 -39.0 62.8 45.1 27.7 4.3 4.0 9.2 14.0
Motherson Sumi Buy 99 141 42 5.1 4.5 6.4 -5.2 -12.1 42.3 22.0 15.5 2.6 2.3 12.1 15.6
Tata Motors Neutral 128 119 -7 -4.4 -1.1 11.5 PL Loss LP NM 11.1 0.7 0.7 -0.6 6.3
TVS Motor Neutral 398 393 -1 14.1 11.8 17.2 1.1 -16.3 45.4 33.7 23.2 5.1 4.4 15.9 20.4
Aggregate -21.1 -19.2 44.7 26.9 18.6 2.7 2.5 10.0 13.2
Banks - Private
AU Small Finance Buy 644 760 18 13.2 21.1 29.2 28.9 60 38.3 30.5 22.1 4.6 3.8 16.9 18.8
Axis Bank Buy 684 825 21 18.2 25.7 50.2 1,538.1 41 95.2 26.6 13.6 2.2 1.9 9.0 15.0
DCB Bank Neutral 184 210 14 10.5 12.8 17.1 32.0 21.6 33.9 14.4 10.7 1.7 1.5 12.9 15.1
Equitas Hold. Buy 100 140 40 5.2 9.2 13.1 1,186.6 77.9 42.5 10.9 7.6 1.2 1.1 12.1 15.1
Federal Bank Buy 83 120 44 6.3 8.9 11.3 32.2 40.8 28.1 9.4 7.3 1.1 1.0 12.6 14.5
HDFC Bank Buy 1203 1375 14 39.6 49.0 61.9 16.9 23.6 26.4 24.6 19.4 3.9 3.3 16.8 18.4
ICICI Bank Buy 429 530 24 5.2 17.3 28.7 -52.8 231.3 65.8 24.8 14.9 2.4 2.1 10.2 15.4
IndusInd Buy 1251 1530 22 54.9 89.8 124.0 -8.8 63.6 38.1 13.9 10.1 2.4 1.9 18.6 21.1
Kotak Mah. Bk Neutral 1584 1600 1 37.7 46.8 58.0 16.0 24.1 23.7 33.8 27.3 4.5 3.9 14.3 15.6
RBL Bank Buy 259 500 93 20.3 24.9 31.7 34.3 22.5 27.4 10.4 8.2 1.3 1.0 13.3 14.5
South Indian Buy 10 18 79 1.4 2.0 2.6 -26.2 49.4 26.3 4.9 3.9 0.3 0.3 6.8 8.1
Aggregate 16.7 49.3 44.1 24.1 16.7 3.1 2.7 12.8 15.9
Banks - PSU
BOB Buy 88 130 47 1.6 5.8 23.7 LP 253.9 310.4 15.3 3.7 0.5 0.5 3.3 13.3
BOI Neutral 60 90 50 -24.6 -0.8 8.1 Loss Loss LP NM 7.4 0.4 0.4 -0.5 4.7
Canara Neutral 179 278 55 4.7 32.8 41.7 LP 603.0 27.1 5.5 4.3 0.4 0.4 6.6 7.9
Indian Bk Neutral 111 150 35 6.7 14.7 42.5 -74.4 118.7 189.7 7.6 2.6 0.3 0.3 4.2 11.4
PNB Neutral 57 65 14 -27.1 -5.7 9.9 Loss Loss LP NM 5.8 0.7 0.6 -6.1 10.3
SBI Buy 255 350 37 2.6 24.0 34.6 LP 830 44.6 10.7 7.4 1.0 0.9 9.6 12.7
Union Bk Neutral 50 80 61 -20.1 -2.9 1.9 Loss Loss LP NM 26.2 0.4 0.4 -2.1 1.4
Aggregate Loss LP 127 14 6.3 0.7 0.6 4.9 10.0
NBFCs
Aditya Birla Cap Buy 78 110 41 4.0 4.5 5.6 25.7 13.8 23.6 17.3 14.0 1.8 1.5 10.9 11.8
Bajaj Fin. Neutral 3882 3850 -1 69.3 99.6 126.4 59.6 43.9 26.8 39.0 30.7 9.0 7.2 25.9 26.1
Cholaman.Inv.&Fn Buy 285 350 23 15.2 19.1 22.3 21.7 25.8 16.7 14.9 12.8 3.0 2.4 21.8 20.9
HDFC Buy 2012 2600 29 43.9 51.2 62.0 45.2 16.7 21.2 39.3 32.4 4.1 3.6 14.7 15.7
HDFC Life Insur. Neutral 582 575 -1 6.3 7.3 8.8 14.6 15.2 20.1 79.7 66.4 5.2 4.4 21.9 19.8
ICICI Pru Life Buy 449 500 11 8.0 8.4 9.4 -29.5 5.5 11.6 53.6 48.0 2.5 2.2 17.3 17.6
Indostar Capital Buy 200 300 50 26.1 26.8 35.1 2.5 2.7 30.9 7.5 5.7 0.6 0.5 7.9 9.4
L&T Fin Holdings Buy 82 120 47 11.2 12.5 14.2 64.8 12.2 13.5 6.5 5.7 1.0 0.9 16.9 16.6
LIC Hsg Fin Buy 362 490 35 48.1 52.5 63.9 21.4 9.1 21.7 6.9 5.7 1.0 0.9 15.4 16.5
MAS Financial Buy 696 830 19 27.8 35.4 42.4 47.1 27.2 19.7 19.7 16.4 3.7 3.1 21.1 21.3
M&M Fin. Buy 321 400 25 25.3 27.3 31.7 53.9 7.6 16.2 11.8 10.1 1.7 1.5 15.1 15.6
Muthoot Fin Neutral 658 715 9 49.2 62.0 75.0 10.8 26.1 20.9 10.6 8.8 2.4 2.0 24.7 25.1
PNB Housing Buy 470 750 60 71.1 86.3 92.0 40.9 21.3 6.6 5.4 5.1 0.9 0.8 18.1 16.7

15 October 2019 11
 Click excel icon
for detailed Valuation snapshot
valuation guide

CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
Repco Home Buy 279 420 51 37.5 48.1 54.3 16.7 28.3 12.9 5.8 5.1 1.0 0.8 18.1 17.3
Shriram City
Buy 1351 1650 22 149.9 172.3 186.1 48.7 15.0 8.0 7.8 7.3 1.2 1.0 16.5 15.4
Union
Shriram Trans. Buy 1043 1385 33 113.0 120.6 139.9 4.2 6.7 16.0 8.6 7.5 1.3 1.1 16.2 16.3
Aggregate 33.2 19.8 19.7 22.9 19.1 3.3 2.9 14.6 15.1
Capital Goods
ABB Sell 1474 1500 2 12.0 20.0 25.6 12.7 67.1 27.7 73.5 57.6 6.8 6.0 14.9 14.8
Bharat Elec. Buy 109 139 28 7.9 8.0 8.7 37.7 1.4 8.5 13.6 12.5 2.6 2.4 19.3 18.9
BHEL Neutral 43 52 21 3.5 3.3 3.5 58.9 -5.1 5.6 12.9 12.3 0.5 0.5 3.7 3.8
Blue Star Neutral 806 860 7 19.5 25.8 32.5 34.7 32.7 25.9 31.2 24.8 7.3 6.0 23.4 24.1
CG Cons. Elec. Buy 254 310 22 6.0 8.3 10.2 15.5 38.5 24.1 30.7 24.8 11.4 9.0 41.5 40.5
Cummins Buy 573 700 22 26.1 26.5 29.1 10.8 1.7 9.9 21.6 19.7 3.6 3.3 17.2 17.6
Engineers India Buy 106 161 53 5.9 7.4 8.6 -8.4 26.7 15.6 14.2 12.3 2.8 2.5 19.5 20.3
GE T&D Neutral 168 205 22 8.3 6.5 8.2 10.8 -22.2 26.7 26.0 20.6 2.8 2.6 11.2 13.1
Havells Neutral 653 800 23 12.7 15.2 18.3 12.9 19.9 20.5 43.1 35.7 8.4 7.3 19.6 20.5
K E C Intl Buy 282 430 52 18.9 25.5 30.8 5.7 34.6 21.0 11.1 9.2 2.4 2.0 21.8 21.3
L&T Buy 1423 1900 34 61.4 78.7 99.6 18.7 28.3 26.5 18.1 14.3 2.8 2.5 16.7 18.5
Siemens Buy 1573 1500 -5 25.1 34.8 39.8 27.1 38.7 14.2 45.2 39.6 6.1 5.5 13.5 13.8
Solar Ind Neutral 1100 1190 8 28.9 37.0 47.4 18.6 28.0 28.0 29.7 23.2 6.6 5.4 24.4 25.6
Thermax Neutral 1120 1290 15 27.2 34.7 43.1 32.4 27.8 24.0 32.3 26.0 3.8 3.4 12.4 13.9
Va Tech Wab. Neutral 232 260 12 23.1 20.7 30.0 -9.5 -10.3 44.9 11.2 7.7 1.1 1.0 10.2 13.4
Voltas Buy 674 770 14 15.7 19.9 24.3 -9.2 26.5 22.2 33.9 27.7 4.9 4.3 15.1 16.5
Aggregate 19.7 22.0 21.6 22.5 18.5 3.1 2.7 13.6 14.8
Cement
Ambuja Cem. Neutral 194 220 13 6.1 7.7 8.3 -3.2 25.8 7.9 25.3 23.5 1.8 1.7 7.1 7.5
ACC Buy 1469 1910 30 53.5 74.9 82.5 9.9 39.9 10.2 19.6 17.8 2.3 2.1 12.6 12.5
Birla Corp. Buy 523 740 42 33.2 48.5 64.7 53.6 46.0 33.6 10.8 8.1 0.8 0.8 8.0 10.0
Dalmia Bhar. Buy 809 1030 27 15.8 19.3 26.4 4.3 22.1 36.9 42.0 30.7 1.4 1.4 3.5 4.6
Grasim Inds. Neutral 699 740 6 66.1 74.7 88.4 39.7 13.0 18.3 9.4 7.9 1.1 1.0 5.0 4.7
India Cem Neutral 82 85 4 2.3 5.6 6.0 -31.0 146.5 8.6 14.7 13.5 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.4
J K Cements Buy 1034 1270 23 34.1 56.8 58.6 -19.8 66.4 3.2 18.2 17.6 2.6 2.3 15.2 13.9
JK Lakshmi Ce Buy 284 410 44 6.8 16.3 20.9 -8.7 140.9 28.6 17.4 13.6 2.0 1.8 12.0 13.8
Ramco Cem Neutral 720 740 3 21.9 25.4 28.7 -8.7 16.0 13.0 28.4 25.1 3.4 3.0 12.7 12.8
Orient Cem Buy 85 125 47 2.3 5.7 6.0 7.5 147.2 5 14.8 14.1 1.5 1.4 10.7 10.2
Prism Johnson Buy 77 110 43 3.1 3.6 3.9 123.4 14.6 8.5 21.5 19.8 3.0 2.7 14.8 14.2
Sanghi Inds. Buy 48 70 44 2.0 4.8 3.7 -44.9 132.7 -23.2 10.2 13.2 0.7 0.6 7.0 5.1
Shree Cem Neutral 18705 21000 12 324.1 433.4 602.5 -18.2 33.7 39.0 43.2 31.0 6.0 5.2 14.8 17.9
Ultratech Buy 4172 4920 18 88.7 132.6 176.7 -0.9 49.5 33.3 30.7 23.1 3.1 2.7 11.6 12.9
Aggregate 9.6 32.6 21.9 20.9 17.2 2.1 1.9 9.9 11.2
Consumer
Asian Paints Sell 1798 1451 -19 23.1 27.6 33.0 9.1 19.5 19.7 65.2 54.5 16.4 14.5 26.4 28.3
Britannia Buy 3107 3575 15 48.1 57.9 67.5 15.1 20.4 16.5 53.6 46.0 16.6 16.2 31.8 35.5
Colgate Buy 1521 1750 15 27.4 29.7 36.8 8.8 8.3 23.9 51.3 41.4 29.9 32.6 57.0 75.4
Dabur Neutral 455 447 -2 8.5 9.0 10.1 9.5 5.5 12.4 50.7 45.1 12.6 11.6 26.4 26.8
Emami Buy 305 375 23 12.2 13.4 15.4 0.2 10.2 15.3 22.7 19.7 5.9 5.6 27.4 29.1
Godrej Cons. Neutral 691 650 -6 15.1 16.0 18.8 7.2 5.7 17.6 43.3 36.8 9.2 8.8 21.8 24.4
GSK Cons. Neutral 8591 9074 6 216.1 281.0 313.2 29.8 30.0 11.5 30.6 27.4 7.7 6.8 26.9 26.4
HUL Buy 2015 2265 12 28.9 33.2 40.8 18.2 14.8 22.9 60.7 49.4 54.8 51.4 92.0 107.4
ITC Neutral 244 247 1 10.2 12.1 13.1 14.8 18.7 8.2 20.2 18.7 4.8 4.4 24.5 24.5
Jyothy Lab Neutral 160 176 10 5.4 6.0 7.4 10.5 12.0 23.5 26.5 21.4 4.2 4.0 16.2 19.0
Marico Buy 385 445 16 7.2 8.2 10.1 14.3 13.4 23.4 47.1 38.2 13.6 12.1 31.7 33.5
Nestle Neutral 14174 13675 -4 178.6 212.4 244.7 27.5 19.0 15.2 66.7 57.9 64.0 58.0 70.5 105.1
Page Inds Neutral 20971 21760 4 353.2 401.4 480.4 13.5 13.7 19.7 52.2 43.7 26.3 23.5 50.4 53.9
Parag Milk Foods Buy 154 182 18 15.7 16.5 20.7 51.5 4.7 25.4 9.4 7.5 1.4 1.2 15.6 17.2
Pidilite Ind. Neutral 1362 1392 2 18.6 24.8 27.9 -2.0 33.7 12.3 54.9 48.9 13.7 11.5 27.4 25.6

15 October 2019 12
 Click excel icon
for detailed Valuation snapshot
valuation guide

CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
P&G Hygiene Neutral 11675 11761 1 128.9 176.6 224.0 11.9 37.0 26.9 66.1 52.1 35.7 29.5 59.1 62.1
United Brew Neutral 1276 1366 7 21.3 21.7 27.3 42.8 1.7 25.9 58.9 46.8 9.2 7.8 16.7 18.1
United Spirits Buy 617 840 36 9.3 13.8 18.0 38.1 48.5 30.5 44.6 34.2 11.4 8.5 25.6 25.0
Aggregate 15.4 17.8 15.0 41.2 35.9 12.3 11.3 29.9 31.5
Healthcare
Alembic Phar Neutral 535 565 6 31.0 30.3 31.4 41.6 -2.2 3.6 17.7 17.0 3.2 2.8 19.2 17.2
Alkem Lab Buy 1936 2260 17 63.8 76.8 104.4 8.4 20.3 36.0 25.2 18.5 3.8 3.3 15.8 18.8
Ajanta Pharma Buy 962 1164 21 44.4 48.6 56.0 -16.1 9.5 15.0 19.8 17.2 3.3 2.8 17.7 17.5
Aurobindo Buy 459 590 28 43.2 49.3 62.1 1.1 14.1 26.1 9.3 7.4 1.6 1.3 18.9 19.8
Biocon Neutral 253 250 -1 6.2 8.5 10.2 99.6 37.1 19.6 29.8 24.9 4.5 4.0 15.8 16.8
Cadila Buy 233 275 18 18.3 16.6 18.1 4.3 -9.1 9.0 14.0 12.8 2.1 1.8 15.0 15.1
Cipla Neutral 441 465 5 18.7 21.2 24.1 -3.1 13.2 13.9 20.8 18.3 2.1 1.9 10.1 10.5
Divis Lab Neutral 1683 1573 -7 50.0 55.0 66.6 55.0 9.9 21.1 30.6 25.3 5.6 4.8 19.6 20.5
Dr Reddy’s Neutral 2649 2622 -1 105.2 120.2 130.5 62.6 14.3 8.6 22.0 20.3 2.6 2.4 13.0 12.3
Glenmark Neutral 280 315 12 25.9 24.1 28.0 -9.0 -7.0 16.3 11.6 10.0 1.3 1.2 11.6 12.1
Granules Buy 100 130 30 9.2 12.4 14.5 76.5 34.5 16.6 8.1 6.9 1.5 1.3 19.3 19.6
GSK Pharma Neutral 1395 1490 7 24.6 28.1 31.4 25.2 14.3 11.8 49.6 44.4 10.6 10.0 21.3 22.4
IPCA Labs Buy 890 1050 18 37.1 43.6 53.6 95.7 17.4 23.1 20.4 16.6 3.1 2.7 16.4 17.4
Jubilant Life Buy 480 610 27 57.5 58.0 65.8 26.1 0.9 13.5 8.3 7.3 1.3 1.1 17.3 16.8
Laurus Labs Buy 320 390 22 10.4 13.0 21.9 -34.5 25.6 67.7 24.5 14.6 2.0 1.8 8.5 12.8
Lupin Buy 715 770 8 23.3 28.9 39.1 -27.1 23.9 35.5 24.8 18.3 2.2 2.0 9.2 11.6
Strides Pharma Buy 339 420 24 6.9 21.9 33.0 -39.2 219.6 50.6 15.5 10.3 1.1 1.0 7.2 10.2
Sun Pharma Buy 395 490 24 15.1 17.9 21.7 12.2 18.5 21.6 22.1 18.1 2.1 1.9 10.0 11.1
Torrent Pharma Neutral 1698 1490 -12 42.7 51.7 70.8 -7.1 21.0 37.0 32.9 24.0 5.4 4.7 17.4 21.1
Aggregate 11.9 13.3 20.6 20.3 16.9 2.6 2.3 12.7 13.6
Infrastructure
Ashoka Buildcon Buy 98 152 55 11.5 12.1 12.6 35.8 5.8 4.1 8.1 7.8 1.1 1.0 14.4 13.2
IRB Infra Neutral 60 79 32 24.2 20.0 6.8 1.2 -17.2 -66.0 3.0 8.8 0.3 0.3 10.6 3.4
KNR Constructions Buy 228 332 45 18.9 19.5 17.6 -2.2 3.2 -9.8 11.7 13.0 1.9 1.7 17.8 13.9
Sadbhav
Buy 132 195 48 10.8 9.9 14.0 -15.7 -9.1 41.9 13.4 9.4 1.0 0.9 8.0 10.4
Engineering
Aggregate 6.9 9.5 0.8 0.7 11.2 7.6
Logistics
Allcargo Logistics Buy 99 130 32 9.7 10.7 13.2 33.6 10.7 23.1 9.2 7.5 1.1 0.9 12.4 13.4
Concor Buy 580 710 23 19.9 15.9 18.8 14.9 -20.1 18.2 36.4 30.8 3.3 3.1 9.2 10.3
Aggregate 18.5 -14.7 14.6 28.3 24.7 2.6 2.5 9.2 9.9
Media
D B Corp Buy 145 190 31 15.7 19.0 21.3 -11.1 21.2 12.2 7.6 6.8 1.4 1.3 17.6 18.4
Ent.Network Buy 256 464 81 10.9 11.8 22.8 60.2 8.7 93.2 21.7 11.2 1.2 1.1 5.9 10.5
Jagran Prak. Buy 58 90 55 8.8 9.5 12.1 -8.7 8.2 27.0 6.1 4.8 0.8 0.8 14.4 16.7
Music Broadcast Buy 35 52 48 2.2 1.8 2.6 22.9 -18.6 41.7 19.3 13.6 1.5 1.3 8.0 10.3
PVR Buy 1794 2178 21 37.9 46.4 47.1 41.9 22.6 1.4 38.6 38.1 5.2 4.6 15.4 12.8
Sun TV Buy 481 600 25 35.4 41.2 49.6 27.6 16.5 20.4 11.7 9.7 2.9 2.4 27.2 27.2
Zee Ent. Neutral 243 265 9 16.4 21.4 25.1 12.7 30.3 17.2 11.3 9.7 2.2 1.8 20.3 20.7
Aggregate 1.5 26.1 13.1 11.9 10.5 2.0 2.0 17.0 19.2
Metals
Hindalco Buy 189 244 29 24.7 20.4 22.6 30.9 -17.4 10.7 9.3 8.4 1.0 0.9 11.1 11.1
Hind. Zinc Neutral 208 212 2 18.8 19.1 21.1 -10.8 1.5 10.2 10.9 9.9 2.3 2.0 22.5 21.8
JSPL Buy 100 161 62 3.3 -7.1 1.8 LP PL LP NM 54.4 0.3 0.3 -2.2 0.6
JSW Steel Buy 222 280 26 31.8 19.3 33.7 32.4 -39.4 75.0 11.5 6.6 1.4 1.2 12.7 19.5
Nalco Buy 40 51 26 9.2 3.3 5.1 79.9 -64.5 55.5 12.4 8.0 0.7 0.7 5.9 8.9
NMDC Buy 98 119 21 15.6 14.4 13.5 19.2 -7.9 -5.9 6.8 7.3 1.1 1.0 16.3 14.4
SAIL Neutral 33 32 -2 6.3 2.3 4.8 2,344.1 -63 104.4 14.0 6.8 0.3 0.3 2.4 4.8
Vedanta Neutral 148 141 -5 18.1 13.8 16.2 -11.0 -23.9 17.8 10.7 9.1 0.9 0.8 8.1 9.1
Tata Steel Neutral 345 401 16 88.6 50.9 76.4 27.3 -42.5 50.1 6.8 4.5 0.6 0.5 9.0 12.4

15 October 2019 13
 Click excel icon
for detailed Valuation snapshot
valuation guide

CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
Aggregate 22.0 -29.4 31.6 10.0 7.6 0.9 0.8 8.7 10.6
Oil & Gas
Aegis Logistics Buy 164 245 50 6.6 9.8 12.0 11.9 48.4 21.6 16.7 13.7 3.4 2.9 22.3 22.9
BPCL Buy 486 495 2 43.4 39.5 52.7 -12.9 -8.9 33.2 12.3 9.2 2.2 1.9 18.8 22.0
Castrol India Buy 134 170 27 7.2 8.6 8.5 2.4 20.7 -1.6 15.4 15.7 10.1 9.2 69.2 61.3
GAIL Buy 126 166 32 14.0 15.0 16.9 38.4 7.2 12.6 8.4 7.4 1.2 1.1 14.7 15.0
Gujarat Gas Neutral 174 188 8 6.2 11.3 9.4 46.9 80.5 -16.6 15.5 18.5 4.3 3.6 31.0 21.2
Gujarat St. Pet. Neutral 210 222 6 14.1 17.4 16.7 18.9 23.4 -4.0 12.1 12.6 1.8 1.6 15.9 13.4
HPCL Buy 310 349 13 43.9 40.3 50.6 -7.3 -8.1 25.4 7.7 6.1 1.4 1.2 19.1 21.5
IOC Buy 145 195 35 18.8 12.8 21.0 -23.7 -32.1 64.6 11.3 6.9 1.1 1.0 10.2 15.7
IGL Neutral 376 354 -6 11.2 15.0 16.0 19.1 33.7 6.3 25.0 23.6 5.3 4.5 23.2 20.8
Mahanagar Gas Neutral 942 977 4 55.3 67.7 65.1 14.3 22.3 -3.8 13.9 14.5 3.4 3.0 25.8 21.7
MRPL Neutral 51 63 23 1.9 2.8 9.2 -84.8 44.2 229.6 18.3 5.6 0.8 0.7 4.5 13.8
Oil India Buy 153 243 59 32.0 31.4 33.6 35.6 -1.9 7.0 4.9 4.6 0.6 0.5 12.3 12.3
ONGC Buy 135 203 50 27.1 27.2 31.3 34.4 0.4 15.0 5.0 4.3 0.7 0.7 15.3 16.0
PLNG Buy 259 336 30 14.4 17.9 21.7 3.7 24.3 21.6 14.5 11.9 3.6 3.3 25.6 28.7
Reliance Ind. Buy 1358 1414 4 67.2 79.2 88.3 10.4 17.8 11.5 17.1 15.4 1.9 1.7 11.5 11.6
Aggregate 6.0 2.0 20.1 11.9 9.9 1.5 1.4 12.7 13.8
Retail
Avenue
Sell 1828 1600 -12 14.5 21.7 28.9 11.9 50.3 33.0 84.1 63.2 16.4 13.0 21.6 23.0
Supermarts
Aditya Birla
Buy 205 250 22 1.6 2.2 3.9 156.7 31.5 80.2 94.6 52.5 9.9 8.3 11.1 17.3
Fashion
Future Lifestyle Buy 402 530 32 8.6 8.1 9.4 30.1 -5.8 15.3 49.5 43.0 3.4 3.2 7.6 7.7
Future Retail Buy 381 510 34 14.6 15.1 17.9 19.1 3.3 18.8 25.3 21.3 4.2 3.5 17.9 17.8
Jubilant Food. Neutral 1321 1400 6 24.1 29.3 33.3 62.0 21.7 13.6 45.0 39.6 11.6 9.7 25.7 24.4
Shoppers Stop Neutral 413 450 9 7.8 9.5 11.6 -36.3 21.8 22.8 43.6 35.5 3.5 3.2 8.3 9.3
Spencers Retail Buy 65 175 170 0.1 0.5 0.8 LP 495.4 74.7 135.3 77.5 3.4 3.3 2.6 4.3
Titan Company Buy 1249 1435 15 15.7 18.7 24.8 24.0 19.2 32.9 66.9 50.3 18.1 15.1 27.1 32.7
Trent Buy 506 540 7 2.9 4.4 6.1 11.6 49.2 40.3 116.1 82.7 6.1 5.7 6.6 7.1
V-Mart Retail Neutral 2054 2000 -3 39.5 50.3 64.1 -8.0 27.5 27.3 40.8 32.1 7.4 6.0 20.0 20.8
Aggregate 22.8 24.2 30.3 64.8 49.7 11.2 9.5 17.3 19.0
Technology
Cyient Buy 457 660 44 43.4 43.9 51.0 13.4 1.2 16.4 10.4 9.0 1.8 1.6 17.2 18.1
HCL Tech. Neutral 1087 1170 8 73.6 73.0 84.2 17.6 -0.7 15.2 14.9 12.9 3.1 2.9 22.3 23.2
Hexaware Neutral 371 420 13 19.3 21.0 25.3 16.5 8.5 20.5 17.7 14.7 4.0 3.4 24.5 25.0
Infosys Buy 786 930 18 35.4 38.0 44.0 9.3 7.3 15.8 20.7 17.9 5.1 4.7 24.8 27.3
L & T Infotech Neutral 1481 1670 13 86.6 83.8 96.6 30.6 -3.3 15.3 17.7 15.3 4.3 3.6 26.9 25.4
Mindtree Neutral 731 680 -7 44.7 39.9 46.3 55.5 -10.8 16.1 18.3 15.8 3.4 3.1 20.1 20.4
Mphasis Buy 903 1120 24 56.1 64.5 71.2 27.4 15.0 10.4 14.0 12.7 2.9 2.5 22.5 22.3
NIIT Tech Neutral 1395 1450 4 66.2 76.6 86.1 45.3 15.7 12.5 18.2 16.2 3.7 3.2 21.3 21.0
Persistent Sys Buy 583 680 17 44.0 46.4 57.7 8.9 5.5 24.2 12.6 10.1 1.9 1.7 15.2 17.7
TCS Neutral 2021 2000 -1 83.5 86.2 96.4 26.4 3.3 11.8 23.4 21.0 7.1 6.9 32.7 33.4
Tech Mah Buy 721 820 14 48.2 45.7 53.1 12.8 -5.1 16.2 15.8 13.6 2.9 2.6 19.1 20.3
Wipro Neutral 243 260 7 14.8 15.9 17.0 10.1 7.7 6.8 15.3 14.3 2.9 2.7 17.1 19.4
Zensar Tech Buy 206 300 46 14.4 16.0 19.6 40.4 11.2 22.9 12.9 10.5 2.1 1.8 17.3 18.6
Aggregate 14.7 0.2 13.1 20.7 18.3 5.0 4.7 24.3 25.6
Telecom
Bharti Airtel Buy 394 415 5 -8.8 -8.7 -1.8 PL Loss Loss NM NM 2.2 2.3 -5.5 -1.0
Bharti Infratel Neutral 259 270 4 13.6 17.0 16.7 -0.3 25.3 -2.3 15.2 15.6 3.3 3.3 21.7 21.4
Vodafone Idea Buy 6 7 10 -18.5 -6.1 -5.5 Loss Loss Loss NM NM 0.3 0.4 -27.9 -27.0
Tata Comm Neutral 355 400 13 -2.2 7.9 21.1 PL LP 165.9 44.7 16.8 227.7 15.6 -329 174.3
Aggregate Loss Loss Loss -15 -20.9 1.6 1.8 -10.9 -8.4
Utiltites
Coal India Buy 190 251 32 28.3 26.5 29.8 47.9 -6.5 12.4 7.2 6.4 4.3 3.8 60.2 58.9

15 October 2019 14
 Click excel icon
for detailed Valuation snapshot
valuation guide

CMP TP % Upside EPS (INR) EPS Gr. YoY (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
Company Reco (INR) (INR) Downside FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
CESC Buy 770 919 19 88.9 91.9 99.5 43.1 3.4 8.2 8.4 7.7 1.0 0.9 13.0 12.8
JSW Energy Neutral 60 72 20 4.2 4.7 5.6 40.2 10.8 18.9 12.7 10.7 0.8 0.8 6.4 7.4
NHPC Neutral 24 25 6 2.6 3.0 3.0 5.9 17.1 0.1 7.8 7.8 0.7 0.7 9.6 9.2
NTPC Buy 118 167 42 11.6 13.6 15.6 30.3 17.5 14.6 8.7 7.5 1.0 0.9 11.8 12.6
Power Grid Buy 198 244 23 19.2 20.7 22.8 16.0 7.7 10.5 9.6 8.7 1.6 1.4 17.3 17.2
Torrent Power Buy 282 353 25 18.7 22.7 29.6 -4.6 21.4 30.4 12.4 9.5 1.4 1.2 11.6 13.8
Tata Power Neutral 60 64 7 2.1 4.1 4.9 -60.5 93.3 19.2 14.7 12.3 0.9 0.9 6.4 7.3
Aggregate 30.9 5.1 11.8 8.4 7.5 1.4 1.3 17.2 17.7
Others
Brigade Enterpr. Buy 191 245 28 11.7 9.7 9.0 63.2 -17.0 -7.9 19.6 21.3 1.7 1.6 8.8 7.6
BSE Buy 514 650 26 38.1 32.2 40.1 -12.4 -15.4 24.5 16.0 12.8 1.0 1.0 6.0 7.6
Coromandel Intl Buy 406 524 29 25.2 27.3 32.7 6.5 8.6 19.8 14.9 12.4 3.0 2.6 22.0 22.4
Delta Corp Buy 171 247 45 7.2 8.3 9.9 23.8 15.6 19.3 20.6 17.3 2.2 1.9 11.0 11.7
Indian Hotels Buy 152 176 16 2.4 3.2 4.5 257.4 35.9 41.7 47.5 33.5 3.9 3.6 8.5 11.1
Interglobe Neutral 1767 1707 -3 4.1 96.7 121.9 -93.0 2,284 26 18 14.5 9.0 8.1 51.2 58.9
Info Edge Neutral 2266 2050 -10 23.0 30.7 37.8 54.2 33.7 23.4 73.9 59.9 10.5 9.2 15.6 16.6
Gateway Distr. Buy 95 130 37 9.8 9.1 5.3 121.8 -6.9 -42.4 10.4 18.1 0.7 0.7 7.3 4.1
Godrej Agrovet Buy 478 608 27 12.5 13.9 19.3 10.9 11.0 38.9 34.4 24.7 5.1 4.5 15.4 19.2
Kaveri Seed Buy 466 575 24 34.4 37.0 38.3 7.7 7.5 3.5 12.6 12.1 2.7 2.6 22.3 21.6
Lemon Tree Hotel Buy 56 74 33 0.7 0.5 1.8 271.9 -26.8 266.1 112.5 30.7 3.3 2.9 3.5 10.1
MCX Buy 990 1180 19 28.7 40.4 47.3 35.2 40.8 17.2 24.5 20.9 3.5 3.2 14.9 16.2
Navneet
Buy 100 154 54 6.7 9.3 11.0 22.5 39.5 18.3 10.7 9.1 2.4 2.0 24.3 23.6
Education
Oberoi Realty Buy 496 650 31 22.5 28.4 30.9 78.1 26.4 8.7 17.4 16.1 2.0 1.8 12.1 11.8
Phoenix Mills Buy 695 820 18 25.0 23.1 26.2 57.8 -7.4 13.3 30.1 26.5 2.8 2.6 9.8 10.2
Quess Corp Neutral 471 510 8 17.5 22.1 32.7 -19.8 26.5 47.9 21.3 14.4 1.7 1.5 11.2 14.6
PI Inds. Buy 1336 1508 13 29.7 37.1 50.3 11.6 24.8 35.4 36.0 26.6 6.9 5.6 20.6 23.3
Piramal Enterp. Buy 1377 2400 74 73.7 102.9 127.3 -5.2 39.5 23.7 13.4 10.8 1.0 1.0 7.9 9.2
SRF Buy 2611 3474 33 113.7 148.5 193.8 60.0 30.5 30.5 17.6 13.5 3.1 2.6 19.3 21.1
S H Kelkar Buy 131 171 30 6.1 8.5 10.7 -13.4 38.3 26.2 15.5 12.3 2.1 1.9 13.6 16.0
Tata Chemicals Buy 590 703 19 42.9 44.2 52.3 -10.8 3.0 18.4 13.3 11.3 1.2 1.1 8.9 9.8
Team Lease Serv. Buy 3067 3450 12 57.2 60.8 97.0 32.9 6.3 59.6 50.5 31.6 8.2 6.5 17.6 22.8
Trident Buy 56 77 38 8.4 10.5 11.0 71.2 26.1 4.8 5.3 5.0 0.9 0.8 16.9 16.2
UPL Neutral 587 632 8 28.8 39.8 45.2 -1.3 38.4 13.4 14.7 13.0 2.7 2.4 19.7 19.6

15 October 2019 15
 MOSL Universe stock performance

Company 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%) Company 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%)
Automobiles BHEL -0.3 -17.0 -42.8
Amara Raja Batt. 0.8 5.5 -6.9 Blue Star -0.2 11.1 43.4
Ashok Leyland -1.5 6.5 -41.6 CG Cons. Elec. -0.8 6.3 23.3
Bajaj Auto 2.0 2.7 12.5 Cummins 1.3 -1.5 -15.8
Bharat Forge 3.1 4.5 -24.9 Engineers India -4.8 -6.4 -9.2
Bosch 1.8 -5.4 -28.1 GE T&D -0.3 2.5 -35.2
CEAT 0.2 0.4 -14.9 Havells -1.1 -3.0 9.8
Eicher Motors 0.7 9.7 -23.6 K E C Intl 1.4 12.3 4.2
Endurance Tech. 0.3 0.3 -16.0 L&T -0.3 4.3 15.2
Escorts 2.4 14.5 1.9 Siemens -0.2 26.3 72.3
Exide Inds. 0.7 1.5 -27.9 Solar Ind 1.0 1.4 8.9
Hero Motocorp 0.5 -6.0 -9.8 Thermax -0.2 7.5 19.5
M&M 1.6 3.2 -26.1 Va Tech Wab. -3.1 -22.6 -8.7
Mahindra CIE 1.2 -11.0 -44.9 Voltas -0.8 5.7 32.2
Maruti Suzuki 1.8 5.7 -6.4 Cement
Motherson Sumi 3.2 -8.0 -37.8 Ambuja Cem. 2.6 -3.4 -12.3
Tata Motors 5.3 -1.4 -30.3 ACC 1.8 -3.8 -2.2
TVS Motor Co. 1.0 2.0 -25.0 Birla Corp. -0.2 -9.9 -7.2
Banks - Private Dalmia Bhar. 3.6 -3.7
AU Small Fin. Bank -1.6 -3.7 4.2 Grasim Inds. 1.1 -2.8 -22.1
Axis Bank 1.6 1.4 16.9 India Cem -0.3 -3.4 -14.7
DCB Bank -1.9 -8.6 13.5 J K Cements -0.6 1.2 48.8
Equitas Holdings 0.1 -14.4 -21.9 JK Lakshmi Ce -0.1 -13.5 4.2
Federal Bank -1.1 -4.3 12.7 Ramco Cem 0.2 -3.0 22.4
HDFC Bank 0.4 6.6 21.6 Orient Cem -0.9 -10.3 -4.3
ICICI Bank 0.0 3.7 34.4 Prism Johnson -1.6 -11.9 -15.4
IndusInd Bank 2.2 -10.6 -24.3 Sanghi Inds. -0.9 -8.5 -29.6
Kotak Mah. Bank -0.3 6.8 35.4 Shree Cem 1.8 -0.7 22.0
RBL Bank -3.0 -30.3 -50.8 Ultratech 2.4 3.4 9.9
South Ind.Bank -0.6 -8.7 -20.5 Consumer
Banks - PSU Asian Paints 0.4 16.1 42.5
BOB -2.8 -11.6 -8.2 Britannia 0.8 16.2 8.2
BOI 1.0 -13.0 -22.2 Colgate 1.4 21.4 38.3
Canara 0.1 -11.9 -22.2 Dabur 2.0 0.6 11.6
Indian Bk -1.1 -32.9 -53.2 Emami 0.7 1.6 -31.5
PNB 0.8 -11.8 -13.7 Godrej Cons. 0.0 11.0 -3.4
SBI 0.4 -12.4 -3.0 GSK Cons. 0.4 10.1 22.5
Union Bk 1.1 -16.4 -28.3 HUL 0.5 11.6 28.4
NBFCs ITC 0.0 1.8 -11.1
Aditya Birla Cap -1.0 -17.7 -27.8 Jyothy Lab 0.9 7.4 -23.5
Bajaj Fin. -2.4 13.3 69.5 Marico 0.4 0.4 22.8
Cholaman.Inv.&Fn 0.2 3.6 19.6 Nestle 1.0 11.6 46.1
HDFC 0.1 -3.6 16.2 Page Inds 0.6 12.3 -27.7
HDFC Life Insur. -1.4 7.6 55.7 Parag Milk -0.8 -5.2 -39.2
Indostar Capital -1.9 -29.3 -33.6 Pidilite Ind. -0.4 -1.1 37.0
L&T Fin.Holdings 1.4 -12.5 -38.5 P&G Hygiene 1.5 13.3 30.3
LIC Hsg Fin -2.3 -10.3 -16.0 United Brew 1.0 0.0 8.6
M&M Fin. -0.6 -5.3 -16.7 United Spirits 1.2 0.0 18.1
Muthoot Fin -0.9 9.9 64.7 Healthcare
MAS Financial Serv. -1.7 12.5 41.5 Alembic Phar -2.0 6.0 -8.6
ICICI Pru Life 1.9 7.6 41.0 Alkem Lab -0.6 5.2 -1.8
PNB Housing -7.1 -26.0 -47.7 Ajanta Pharma -1.1 -9.0 -6.1
Repco Home -5.7 -14.4 -26.0 Aurobindo 4.9 -27.0 -37.5
Shriram City Union -0.2 1.6 -17.6 Biocon 2.3 8.9 -16.7
Shriram Trans. -1.6 -0.9 0.2 Cadila 1.0 -3.8 -38.3
Capital Goods Cipla -0.2 -5.9 -29.2
ABB -0.6 9.2 12.7 Divis Lab -0.5 3.4 31.1
Bharat Elec. 3.7 0.2 27.4 Dr Reddy’s 0.0 -3.0 8.1

15 October 2019 16
 MOSL Universe stock performance

Company 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%) Company 1 Day (%) 1M (%) 12M (%)
Glenmark -2.1 -24.0 -53.3 Jubilant Food -0.2 5.5 11.4
Granules -0.7 -2.2 8.9 Spencer's Retail -0.3 -26.9
GSK Pharma 2.6 2.3 -0.7 Shoppers St. 1.6 0.8 -17.8
IPCA Labs 3.2 -5.6 35.2 Titan Co. 0.5 11.2 55.0
Jubilant Life 1.8 -6.6 -27.6 Trent -0.4 11.0 53.7
Laurus Labs -1.8 -6.4 -22.0 V-Mart Retail 3.9 0.2 0.9
Lupin 2.0 -6.4 -15.4 Technology
Strides Pharma 4.2 -13.7 -21.1 Cyient 0.6 1.8 -30.3
Sun Pharma 2.1 -6.8 -33.2 HCL Tech. 0.6 1.7 10.4
Torrent Pharma 3.3 -1.4 7.3 Hexaware 0.6 -1.3 -4.8
Infrastructure Infosys -3.7 -5.2 15.7
Ashoka Buildcon 0.3 -2.4 -14.4 L&T Infotech 0.3 -7.8 -15.7
IRB Infra.Devl. -1.7 -26.9 -55.2 Mindtree 0.8 8.0 -23.4
KNR Construct. 1.1 3.6 27.9 Mphasis 2.2 -8.8 -10.8
Sadbhav Engg. 2.0 -6.6 -44.4 NIIT Tech -1.3 -1.1 33.3
Logistics Persistent Sys 1.5 1.8 -15.5
Allcargo Logist. 0.3 -3.1 -0.2 TCS 1.7 -5.6 5.3
Concor 2.8 8.7 19.2 Tech Mah -0.1 1.6 3.9
Gateway Distr. -0.3 -3.4 -14.7 Wipro 1.7 -0.8 2.7
Media Zensar Tech 2.8 -6.6 -27.7
D B Corp 3.3 3.9 -23.4 Telecom
Ent.Network -6.0 -25.9 -59.3 Bharti Airtel 2.8 14.8 47.5
Jagran Prak. 3.4 -21.1 -47.0 Bharti Infra. 0.3 1.9 -2.3
Music Broadcast 0.1 -8.4 -45.5 Idea Cellular 6.5 18.8 -70.5
PVR 0.1 13.2 35.5 Tata Comm 0.1 36.2 20.1
Sun TV 2.8 7.5 -26.4 Utiltites
Zee Ent. 0.0 -30.8 -48.0 Coal India 0.6 -4.1 -31.8
Metals CESC 1.8 -6.6 10.3
Hindalco 0.9 -5.7 -16.7 JSW Energy -2.0 -10.5 -5.7
Hind. Zinc 0.3 -4.6 -25.1 NHPC Ltd 2.6 -2.1 -0.6
JSPL 2.1 -8.5 -44.2 NTPC 1.0 -5.0 -13.8
JSW Steel 2.0 -2.1 -41.5 Power Grid -1.3 -2.1 5.2
Nalco -1.6 -9.7 -39.6 Tata Power -2.0 -7.0 -13.1
NMDC 1.4 13.7 -11.8 Torrent Power -0.4 0.5 19.5
SAIL 1.4 -3.3 -50.9 Others
Vedanta 0.6 -0.9 -31.0 Brigade Enterpr. -1.8 -3.5 50.8
Tata Steel 1.6 -6.1 -40.0 BSE -0.3 -4.1 -19.0
Oil & Gas Coromandel Intl 0.6 1.9 7.5
Aegis Logistics -1.4 -14.5 -12.3 Delta Corp 0.5 -6.5 -22.7
BPCL -0.4 18.8 68.3 Godrej Agrovet 1.2 0.9 -7.4
Castrol India 0.3 2.0 -7.4 Indian Hotels 0.9 14.7 21.6
GAIL 0.8 -2.5 -29.8 Interglobe 1.1 2.8 118.4
Gujarat Gas 1.8 -1.6 41.4 Info Edge 0.3 19.4 52.5
Gujarat St. Pet. -0.5 -6.0 23.1 Kaveri Seed 0.9 -9.4 -9.9
HPCL 0.6 14.5 42.1 Lemon Tree Hotel 0.1 -0.4 -20.4
IOC 1.0 11.3 8.4 MCX -1.2 4.6 33.1
IGL 1.1 14.4 55.5 Navneet Educat. -1.1 0.0 -6.8
Mahanagar Gas 2.9 11.2 14.2 Oberoi Realty -0.2 -8.8 28.2
MRPL 0.7 -0.8 -38.3 Phoenix Mills -0.2 -0.2 30.5
Oil India 2.8 0.1 -24.3 PI Inds. 0.9 4.0 73.0
ONGC 4.7 5.0 -14.0 Piramal Enterp. 1.3 -27.6 -38.7
PLNG 0.7 -2.9 19.2 Quess Corp 0.6 2.3 -40.4
Reliance Ind. 0.4 10.8 20.5 SRF -3.0 -5.8 47.3
Retail S H Kelkar -0.4 0.2 -34.0
Aditya Bir. Fas. -0.2 8.2 10.7 Tata Chemicals -0.7 -1.1 -10.0
Avenue Super. -0.8 16.5 29.6 Team Lease Serv. -1.5 10.3 24.6
Future Lifestyle -2.7 -8.6 1.2 Trident 0.6 -8.2 -3.4
Future Retail -0.4 -6.1 -14.1 UPL -0.5 1.6 40.4

15 October 2019 17
 NOTES

15 October 2019 19
THEMATIC/STRATEGY RESEARCH GALLERY
 REPORT GALLERY
RECENT INITIATING COVERAGE REPORTS
DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT GALLERY
 Explanation of Investment Rating
Investment Rating Expected return (over 12-month)
BUY >=15%
SELL < - 10%
NEUTRAL > - 10 % to 15%
UNDER REVIEW Rating may undergo a change
NOT RATED We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning recommendation
*In case the recommendation given by the Research Analyst is inconsistent with the investment rating legend for a continuous period of 30 days, the Research Analyst shall within following 30 days take appropriate measures to make the recommendation
consistent with the investment rating legend.
Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000412. MOFSL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of providing Stock broking services,
Investment Advisory Services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. MOFSL is a subsidiary company of Passionate Investment Management Pvt. Ltd.. (PIMPL). MOFSL is a listed public company, the details in respect of
which are available on www.motilaloswal.com. MOFSL (erstwhile Motilal Oswal Securities Limited - MOFSL) is registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and is a registered Trading Member with National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE)
and Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE), Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX) and National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) for its stock broking activities & is Depository participant with Central Depository Services Limited
(CDSL) National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL),NERL, COMRIS and CCRL and is member of Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) for distribution of financial products and Insurance Regulatory & Development Authority of India (IRDA) as
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Details of pending Enquiry Proceedings of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited are available on the website at https://galaxy.motilaloswal.com/ResearchAnalyst/PublishViewLitigation.aspx

MOFSL, it’s associates, Research Analyst or their relative may have any financial interest in the subject company. MOFSL and/or its associates and/or Research Analyst may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities in the subject company in the
past 12 months. MOFSL and its associate company(ies), their directors and Research Analyst and their relatives may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies
mentioned herein. (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to
such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.; however the same shall have no bearing whatsoever on the specific recommendations made by the
analyst(s), as the recommendations made by the analyst(s) are completely independent of the views of the associates of MOFSL even though there might exist an inherent conflict of interest in some of the stocks mentioned in the research report. Research
Analyst may have served as director/officer, etc. in the subject company in the past 12 months. MOFSL and/or its associates may have received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.

In the past 12 months , MOFSL or any of its associates may have:

a) managed or co-managed public offering of securities from subject company of this research report,
b) received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from subject company of this research report,
c) received compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company of this research report.
d) Subject Company may have been a client of MOFSL or its associates in the past 12 months.

MOFSL and it’s associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. To enhance transparency, MOFSL has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest Statement in this
document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. MOFSL and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, the recipients
of this report should be aware that MOFSL may have a potential conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. Compensation of Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service
transactions. Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for
other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income from clients which are not considered in above disclosures. Above disclosures include beneficial holdings lying in demat account of MOFSL which are
opened for proprietary investments only. While calculating beneficial holdings, It does not consider demat accounts which are opened in name of MOFSL for other purposes (i.e holding client securities, collaterals, error trades etc.). MOFSL also earns DP income
from clients which are not considered in above disclosures.

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This report has been prepared by MOFSL and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in
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recommendatory in nature. The information is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not constitute an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for
securities or other financial instruments for the clients. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. MOFSL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement Companies where there is interest
Analyst ownership of the stock No
A graph of daily closing prices of securities is available at www.nseindia.com, www.bseindia.com. Research Analyst views on Subject Company may vary based on Fundamental research and Technical Research. Proprietary trading desk of MOFSL or its
associates maintains arm’s length distance with Research Team as all the activities are segregated from MOFSL research activity and therefore it can have an independent view with regards to subject company for which Research Team have expressed their
views.
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For Hong Kong:
This report is distributed in Hong Kong by Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong) Private Limited, a licensed corporation (CE AYY-301) licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) pursuant to the Securities and
Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong) “SFO”. As per SEBI (Research Analyst Regulations) 2014 Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited(SEBI Reg No. INH000000412) has an agreement with Motilal Oswal capital Markets (Hong Kong)
Private Limited for distribution of research report in Hong Kong. This report is intended for distribution only to “Professional Investors” as defined in Part I of Schedule 1 to SFO. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available
to professional investor and will be engaged only with professional investors.” Nothing here is an offer or solicitation of these securities, products and services in any jurisdiction where their offer or sale is not qualified or exempt from registration. The Indian
Analyst(s) who compile this report is/are not located in Hong Kong & are not conducting Research Analysis in Hong Kong.
For U.S:
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) is not a registered broker - dealer under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the"1934 act") and under applicable state laws in the United States. In addition MOFSL is not a registered
investment adviser under the U.S. Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (the "Advisers Act" and together with the 1934 Act, the "Acts), and under applicable state laws in the United States. Accordingly, in the absence of specific exemption under the
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Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment
activity to which this document relates is only available to major institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934,
as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S., MOFSL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S.
registered broker-dealer, Motilal Oswal Securities International Private Limited. ("MOSIPL"). Any business interaction pursuant to this report will have to be executed within the provisions of this chaperoning agreement.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, MOSIPL, and therefore, may not be subject to NASD
rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
For Singapore:
In Singapore, this report is being distributed by Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Ltd (“MOCMSPL”) (Co.Reg. NO. 201129401Z) which is a holder of a capital markets services license and an exempt financial adviser in Singapore,
as per the approved agreement under Paragraph 9 of Third Schedule of Securities and Futures Act (CAP 289) and Paragraph 11 of First Schedule of Financial Advisors Act (CAP 110) provided to MOCMSPL by Monetary Authority of Singapore. Persons in
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immediately discontinue any use of this Report and inform MOCMSPL.
Disclaimer: The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or
reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report
may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by
any recipient. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and
should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. Certain transactions -including those involving futures, options, another derivative
products as well as non-investment grade securities - involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained
in this document. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without
any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. MOFSL, its associates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or
have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any
company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document. This report has been prepared on the basis of information that
is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of MOFSL. The views expressed are those of the analyst, and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein. This document is being supplied to you
solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or
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responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOFSL or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
Registered Office Address: Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai-400025; Tel No.: 022 71934200/ 022-71934263; Website www.motilaloswal.com.
CIN No.: L67190MH2005PLC153397.Correspondence Office Address: Palm Spring Centre, 2nd Floor, Palm Court Complex, New Link Road, Malad(West), Mumbai- 400 064. Tel No: 022 7188 1000.
Registration Nos.: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL)*: INZ000158836(BSE/NSE/MCX/NCDEX); CDSL and NSDL: IN-DP-16-2015; Research Analyst: INH000000412. AMFI: ARN - 146822; Investment Adviser: INA000007100; Insurance
Corporate Agent: CA0579 ;PMS:INP000006712. Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC): PMS (Registration No.: INP000000670); PMS and Mutual Funds are offered through MOAMC which is group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Wealth
Management Ltd. (MOWML): PMS (Registration No.: INP000004409) is offered through MOWML, which is a group company of MOFSL. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is a distributor of Mutual Funds, PMS, Fixed Deposit, Bond, NCDs,Insurance
Products and IPOs.Real Estate is offered through Motilal Oswal Real Estate Investment Advisors II Pvt. Ltd. which is a group company of MOFSL. Private Equity is offered through Motilal Oswal Private Equity Investment Advisors Pvt. Ltd which is a group
company of MOFSL. Research & Advisory services is backed by proper research. Please read the Risk Disclosure Document prescribed by the Stock Exchanges carefully before investing. There is no assurance or guarantee of the returns. Investment in
securities market is subject to market risk, read all the related documents carefully before investing. Details of Compliance Officer: Name: Neeraj Agarwal, Email ID: na@motilaloswal.com, Contact No.:022-71881085.

* MOFSL has been amalgamated with Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited (MOFSL) w.e.f August 21, 2018 pursuant to order dated July 30, 2018 issued by Hon'ble National Company Law Tribunal, Mumbai Bench.

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